Taylor Hall

Taylor Hall scored a goal last night and was once again all over the ice, including a hit that caught everyone’s attention. The young man is fun to watch and if you’re building a team that’s a very nice building block. I’m wondering why coach Renney isn’t getting a lot of credit for using Hall in the best part of the batting order?

Excellent zone start, designed to give him every chance to succeed. LW’s paying the price are Ryan Smyth and (gasp) Magnus Paajarvi according to behind the net.

Qual Comp is getting a little tougher, suggesting Renney isn’t sheltering Hall as much as in the past.

CorsiRel he’s killing it, and the latest behind the net 5×5/60 scoring shows Hall as one of 4 forwards over 2.00 per game:

  1. Eberle 3.55
  2. Gagner 2.33
  3. Hall 2.21
  4. Smyth 2.02

Taylor Hall is a very nice hockey player.

 

 

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104 Responses to "Taylor Hall"

  1. regwald says:

    That’s awesome to see his stats bear out what we are seeing on the ice. The hit was a thing of beauty as was the sidestep of Mike Brown’s run at the blue line later in the game.

    I still want to talk about Eberle’s tying goal though. He ate Steckel for lunch, gained the puck and buried in places most players can only think about on an empty net. What a play, what a shot !

  2. Hack says:

    Does anyone know where there is video of the hit? It’s not on any highlights from what I can see, of course this is the one game I don’t PVR.

  3. Clay says:

    The video of the hit is right here.

    I didn’t read through the comments of the GDT yesterday, but did anyone make mention of the fact that both of Hall’s feet were clearly off the ice when he delivered that hit? I’m not saying I didn’t enjoy it, but if he’s not careful, he’s going to be getting some calls from Shanny.

  4. Jordan says:

    Taylor Hall is a very nice hockey player.

    It’s too bad that hemsky doesn’t practice well or have good body language – then he might be as awe… oh what’s that? He’s playing the toughs AND has the second best Rel. Corsi on the team? He had 2 shots hit iron last night and looked like a boss playing with Pajaarvi and Horcoff?

    If he was nice to the media, you might almost think he was a really good hockey player.

    Oh well. Grab your Torches and Pitchforks Edmonton! Time to run another great player out of town!

    Who want’s an effigy to burn?

    Edit: Funny to look at historical shooting% too. It’s down this year, about 4 % below his norm. Why are we trading him again?

  5. Hack says:

    Awesome, thanks Clay

  6. regwald says:

    Clay:
    The video of the hit is right here.

    I didn’t read through the comments of the GDT yesterday, but did anyone make mention of the fact that both of Hall’s feet were clearly off the ice when he delivered that hit?I’m not saying I didn’t enjoy it, but if he’s not careful, he’s going to be getting some calls from Shanny.

    And if you look close, he did lead with the elbow as well.

    But you are right. Totally loved the hit !

  7. Clay says:

    You know, if he adds the slightly dirty, big-time hit to his repertoire, it will do nothing to quiet the Hall – Messier comparisons. Although, I doubt he stoops to this level.

    Note – the guy carrying the stretcher at the end is none other than our very own Cam “Cool Hands” Barker!

  8. Woodguy says:

    Qual Comp is getting a little tougher, suggesting Renney isn’t sheltering Hall as much as in the past.

    I think that’s a combination of two things:

    1) Hall played for a while with 89,83 and that line saw tough comp.

    2) Since Gagner’s explosion game, 4,89,14 is seeing tougher comp (especially on the road). Last night it held true with Frankeneuf and Aulie being Hall’s most common opponents, while 83″s line saw Liles and Franson most of the night.

    Probably explains why 14 and 4′s QC number is ahead of 93′s as well.

    Was wondering how much Renney was able to give the kids easier ice time at home compared to away so I looked at their most common D opposition in the last 2 TOR games.

    Here is Hall’s ice time vs TOR D at home:

    Frankeneuf 8.4min
    Aulie 7.1min
    Gardiner 5.8min
    Liles 4.5min
    Franson 4.1min
    Komisarek 2.6min

    Hall’s ice time vs TOR D in TOR:

    Frankeneuf 16.4min
    Gunnarsson 16.1min
    Franson 1.9min
    Liles 1.7min
    Gardiner 1.6min
    Schenn 1.0min

    That’s the difference in home vs away in a nutshell right there.

    Not quite smooth sampling of the pairs (Komisarek has about 8min of 5v5 TOI below all other TOR Dmen, Wilson didn’t like his game much)

    83′s D pair opponents same games:

    83;s most common D opponents at home:

    Franson 8.2min
    Liles 7.4min
    Frankeneuf 3.8min
    Aulie 3.6min
    Gardiner 3.1min
    Komisarek 3.5min

    83′s most common D opponents away:

    Liles 11.0
    Franson 10.4
    Gardiner 6.4
    Schenn 5.5
    Gunnarson 2.7
    Frankeneuf 2.2

    By eye Hemsky had an easier time of it in TO (had a terrible game though)

  9. misfit says:

    I’m just glad he’s on our side.

  10. nathan says:

    “Why are we trading him again?”

    Jordan,

    Because Hemsky has earned his UFA status and wants to lock in his market value for a long term.

    Most GMs including the ST would do 3x5M. So would LT plus maybe a 4th year and a bit more cash if push comes to shove.

    But many expect Hemsky will get 5×5.5 in UFA. That apparently includes Hemsky and his agent and Oilers management. It’s not a question of discarding or not discarding an important piece. It’s a question of do they want it more than 29 other GMs at an auction where the guy may have more upside than any other forward on the block.

  11. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    regwald: The hit was a thing of beauty as was the sidestep of Mike Brown’s run at the blue line later in the game.

    What impressed me almost more about that sidestep — after reflection — was how far televised sports has come. Not only was that sidestep incredible, but the replay of it from the on-ice level perspective was mind-blowing. From that POV you could see how dangerously close Hall came to that hit, how much contortion he can put into his body and at high speed. It was like watching a near car-hit-pedestrian accident in slow-mo.

    There is no way that is captured ten years ago. You would have just seen the bird’s eye view of a near collision. But the up close shot showed how truly close they came to colliding and how much control Hall has on that crazed body of his.

    amazing!

  12. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Clay,

    Hey, how do you link to an exact clip from the Oilers’ video page? I can’t figure it out.

  13. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Clay,

    Messier… whoo boy… a different time huh? just type in Messier and elbow to youtube… some amazing clips.

    http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=messier+elbow&oq=messier+elbow&aq=f&aqi=g1&aql=&gs_sm=3&gs_upl=69012l72556l0l86852l13l12l0l4l4l0l266l1527l1.2.5l8l0

  14. jonrmcleod says:

    Would any GM want Hemsky bad enough to also take Khabby?

  15. Captain Obvious says:

    nathan,

    I did a quick search for recentcomparable players to Hemsky in terms of ability, age, and entering into their third contract.

    I came up with these names:

    Pominville, 5/26.5 signed before 09/10
    Havlat, 6/30, 09/10
    Camalleri, 5/30, 09/10
    Plekanec, 6/30, 10/11
    Sharp, 5/29.5, goes into effect next year

    It seems pretty clear that Hemsky is in this group in terms of quality if not recent durability. This is what players like Hemsky cost. Now he’s not the best of this group and he has injury questions so he should get less than these numbers. On the other hand, these numbers don’t take into consideration salary inflation.

    The market value for second tier stars like Hemsky is 5/25. Can you honestly say that these players don’t help their teams win?

    More analysis to follow.

  16. Truth says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    That link didn’t work for me, but I hope it includes the one that Messier almost kills Modano and then the paramedics drop the stretcher with him in it. Classic.

    I am guaranteed biased but Hall has got to be in the top 5 most exciting players to watch right now. Oiler fans should be excited for the next few years.

  17. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Truth,

    It works for me… hmm. Clay posted the Modano hit. My favorite though is the Kovin hit (mostly for the commentary… they are so reticient to call it for what it is… dirty, dirty, dirty!)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNS_k7jWDqE

    here’s some others:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8ySUzBoBzg

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbuYFx4dPnw

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22dMrNtPfvc

  18. Captain Obvious says:

    If you do a weighted mean of the prior three seasons of Hemsky’s comparables, Hemsky comes out at the bottom in terms of both games played and pts per game.

    The closest comparables were Havlat, Pominville, and Plekanec. Each of these guys is a 5M per year player with Plekanec and Havlat getting an extra year on their contract (6/30)and Pominville getting 300K more per year but for one less year.

    So on a strict point and games played basis, and without salary inflation, Hemsky deserves less than them. He’s already a 5 million a year player so I’d ask him to take one less year to mitigate against the higher injury risk. I figure 4/20 M is a fair deal. I’d be fine with a longer term if the per year was less. Say, 5/22.5 M. That’s my number.

  19. pboy says:

    I’d do 4/20 for Hemsky but he’s going to do better than that on the open market.

  20. nathan says:

    “The market value for second tier stars like Hemsky is 5/25. Can you honestly say that these players don’t help their teams win?”

    Captain Obvious,

    Who’d say that? Your problem is going to be 2-3 GM’s keener the average GM.

    The Oilers would do 3 x 5M. They might even like your 5 x 4.5M more than your 4 x 5M. But Hemsky’s gonna get 5 x 5M-5.5M. More than you or LT or the Oilers will offer from an Oilers perspective.

  21. CurtisS says:

    Hall was beast’ing last night. Awesome game, Eberles snipe was sick sick.

    Hemsky I thought had a great game but when Eager has almost double your goal total, well thats not good enough.

  22. Captain Obvious says:

    nathan,

    I don’t think so. In any event, right now the Oilers don’t have to compete with other teams. It isn’t their fault if he says no. All they have to do is make an offer. I offer 4/20 or 5/22.5. If Hemsky takes it, I’m happy. If he doesn’t take it, I trade him.

    The problem is that the Oilers don’t even want to make a reasonable offer of any kind.

  23. nathan says:

    Captain Obvious,

    ~ If you’ve sold a house you’ll know that a “reasonable offer” is the one the agent is willing to present to the seller. ~

    At the end their will either be a “reasonable offer” of at least 3×5 or one last conversation with the agent that results in no offer. There are cases where you insist that an agent present a take it or leave offer, but it all depends on the size of the gap.

  24. Ribs says:

    When it comes to signing Hemsky to a lengthy contract, I don’t see what the big deal is. if you need cap space in the future you can always trade him. You’d likely get more or around the same for him that you’d get now. Just keep the cap hit reasonable and there should be no problems.

  25. danny says:

    but but but but… ahhh…. Stu Macgregor blew it with the Taylor vs Tyler decision! Right?

    Back me up here DSF?

  26. nathan says:

    I don’t see what the big deal is.

    Ribs,

    The big deal is at UFA. Hemsky worked 10 years for that. It’s his life. He wants max term and max dollar. To the biggest deal. Or words to that effect.

  27. Jordan says:

    Ribs,

    Yeah, I don’t get it either. I can imagine there is fear with him being another Horcoff Contract, but… it sure seems that they are going to punt him for not enough without a plan to replace him or what he brings.

    Unless he’s part of a deal for a better player (which I don’t think will happen), I just don’t see the value in trading him rather than signing him.

    On different note, isn’t NHL Hockey is a sports entertainment business? Why would you trade away a player who is so entertaining?
    nathan,

    Oh, I understand that. I’m sad about it, and don’t want to accept that reality. So, I’m working on substituting my own. Narrative, and all that.

  28. nathan says:

    “it sure seems that they are going to punt him for not enough without a plan to replace him or what he brings”

    You can plan all you want to, but what you’re replacing is the zero that you’ll have if you can’t offer what it takes to keep him for UFA before the deadline. In other words you’re in line with everyone else trying to do the best you can chasing assets with cash.

    Speaking from within striking distance of the reality based community. I’m hoping the Oilers are ready to do something between 3 x 5M and 5 x 4.5M, that Hemsky is willing to discount a bit to get 5 years here instead of 5 years there and that Hemsky or his agent aren’t confident about getting North of 5 x 5M.

    But I also know there are teams that need #1 PP guys even more than the Oilers.

  29. DSF says:

    danny:
    but but but but… ahhh….Stu Macgregor blew it with the Taylor vs Tyler decision! Right?

    Back me up here DSF?

    Gabe can do the work for us:

    P/60 5V5
    Hall – 2.21
    Seguin – 2.62

    G/60 5V5
    Hall – .83
    Seguin – 1.23

    GFON/60-GAON/60 +-
    Hall – +0.18
    Seguin – +2.06

    Qual Comp
    Hall 4th
    Seguin 4th

    +-
    Hall – +1
    Seguin – +28

    TOI/G
    Hall – 18:03
    Seguin – 16:38

    PPTOI/G
    Hall – 3.27
    Seguin – 2:26

    PPP
    Hall – 10G 7A 17P
    Seguin – 4G 8A 12P

    EVP
    Hall – 10G 15A 25P
    Seguin – 16G 17A 33P

    Feel free to draw your own conclusions but it appears to me that Hall’s numbers are being bolstered by the PP while Seguin is tearing it up at evens.

    As long as the Oiler PP keeps clicking, Hall should do very well but he’s just barely keeping his head above water at evens.

    Of course, Seguin generally has the advantage of better team mates (especially goaltending) but that’s not likely to change much in the foreseeable future.

    I’m sure Boston is NOT disappointed Seguin was available when they picked.

  30. VOR says:

    In the analysis below last 3 full seasons means 2008/2009, 2009/2010, 2010/2011, last 2 full seasons and current seasons means 2009/2010, 2010/2011 and 2011/2012 to date.

    Plekanec
    Last 3 full seasons .70 pts per game played
    Last 2 full seasons and year to date .77 pts per game played

    Patrick Sharp
    Last 3 full seasons .83 points per game played
    Last 2 full seasons and year to date .89 points per game played

    Jason Pominville
    Last 3 full seasons .76 points per game played
    Last 2 seasons and year to date .79 points per game played

    Mike Cammalleri
    Last 3 full seasons .84 points per game played
    Last 2 seasons and year to date .68 points per game played

    Martin Havlat
    Last 3 full seasons played .83 points per game played
    Last 2 full seasons played and year to date .74 points per game played

    Ales Hemsky
    Last 3 full seasons .92 points per game played
    Last 2 full seasons and year to date .79 points per game played

    On the basis of games played certainly Hemsky deserves to be paid less and is at the bottom of a list of these years. But on any sort of points per game basis you need to really cherry pick to argue Hemsky isn’t as good or better than all these guys.

    Career Hemsky is .79 pts per game and 2.81 pts per 60, only Havlat is better in both categories at .80 and 2.85 per 60. Hemsky has played in 75% of all games he could have played in his career, Havlat in 74%. Pominville is .8 and 2.61, Micke Cammellari is .75 and 2.57, Patrick Sharp is .67 and 2.35 and Plekanic is .66 and 2.22. Why exactly would Hemsky deserve less money?

    In a very similar numberof gamesd played he has outscored Patrick Sharp 419 vs 362, Thomas Plekanic 419 to 351, Mike Cammellari 419 to 411, sawed off with Jason Pommenville playing 18 more games put only out scoring him 419 to 411, and only Havlat has scored more at 527 to 419 but has played 114 more games (the difference per game and per 60 between them is statistically insignificant and Havlat has played fewer of the games he was available for than Hemsky.)

    So here is the deal for Hemsky 8, 6, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 3 (4.5 M cap hit), two year no trade, then can be dealt anywhere. Throw in a signing bonus of say $3.5 million. To Hemsky $5 million a year for 7 years.

  31. TheOtherJohn says:

    Danny

    Really like Hall and would keep him regardless but Tyler Sequin is a pretty good hockey player and having a pretty good year on a very deep team. Not sure you could go wrong selecting either kid, but time will tell

  32. mc79hockey says:

    Nathan’s posting from the Oilers offices right? Love hearing this “ST will do three years” meme develop.

  33. OilClog says:

    All you need to do is watch 1 or 2 shifts that Hall is on the ice to know he’s a special player, no need for fancy stats.. but fancy stats are fun!

    I’d pay Hemmer 25-30 for 5-6yrs.. done. It’s tradeable down the line, it’s like giving Horcoff 10mil/yr. Loyalty to an organization is worth some money, it gives a great image to kids coming up that if you play hard, well, and do the right things, you have the chance of being very wealthy and go down in legend. If a player is rumored to be wanted by the wings.. you do everything you can to keep him. Atleast that’s my simpleton opinion on the matter, Hemsky is a player and most needed in the jersey he’s still wearing.

  34. nathan says:

    mc79hockey,

    I thought Matheson et. al. started that meme from those offices.

    I’m at the Oilers not matching paying realistic value beyond 3 years and Hemsky can get a longer ride elsewhere.

  35. VOR says:

    As for Seguin versus Hall, of course Hall scores on the power play. Coming into the draft all of his detractors were saying most of his scoring comes from the power play. It is his game, being the trigger man on a great power play. Did we actually want our power play to go on being mediocre to bad for the rest of time? Don’t power play goals count?

  36. OilClog says:

    Is it too late to bitch about that reffin’ last night? Brutal display of professionalism, Imagine Burke and Wilson if the tables were turned after that game..

  37. OilClog says:

    VOR,

    Seguin vs Hall is only an argument for people out east, everyone out west put that to rest ages ago. Seguin is good, but Hall brings something to the ice very very few players around the entire league do.

  38. TheOtherJohn says:

    OilClog

    Apparently someone forgot to tell the numbers that Hall is clearly superior to Sequin, bcause it certainly looks very very close when regerring to imperical data

    Still like and would keep Hall

  39. Bruce McCurdy says:

    What’s amazing about Hall is how quickly he is able to solve spatial problems. He’s like a cat in that he can make himself fit in all sorts of different-shaped holes, but what can be stunning is how he does his body-art-by-Gumby routine at a hundred miles an hour. Makes me gasp sometimes, and usually in a good way.

  40. jonrmcleod (aka Gospel of Jon) says:

    How good would Hall be on the Bruins?

  41. danny says:

    DSF,

    DSF, You’ll note that I have never knocked Seguin, nor have I stated that Hall is/was/will be the best player… I think he will be, but theres a long ways to go before anyone can make that claim.

    This is in response to your gloating earlier in the season when Seguin was destroying Hall. MacGregor dropped the ball last draft, etc…

  42. TheOtherJohn says:

    Gospel of Jon

    Q really is what would Hall produce with less TOI and less PPTOI on the Bruins? same? Better? etc

    Danny If Hall was a Canuck DSF would be insufferable! Wait, he already is.

  43. rickithebear says:

    I did a quick search for recentcomparable players to Hemsky in terms of ability, age, and entering into their third contract.
    I came up with these names:

    “But on any sort of points per game basis you need to really cherry pick to argue Hemsky isn’t as good or better than all these guys. ” LOL at trhis.

    You don’t get the fact that PPG is cherry picking. PTs/season is the real measure.
    Oh wait they do not say he has X points this season.

    A contract is usually based on production over the previos three years. they show growth or maintain then contract accordingly.

    in the NHL more goals than the other team wins. Goal scorers are rewarded.

    Pominville, 5/26.5 signed before 09/10
    27G/season 100% games played Career Shooting 11.7%
    we have a top 40 goals corer at the time of signing

    Camalleri, 5/30, 09/10
    31G/Season; 92% 11.7%
    Top 20 goal scorer at the yime of signing

    Plekanec, 6/30, 10/11
    25G/season; 99.6%; 11.1%
    a25 goal 65 point player that gets paid in the 5.75M range. Discounted contract.

    Sharp, 5/29.5, goes into effect next year
    31G/season; 93%; 12.4%
    Top 20 goal scorer in the league .

    Havlat, 6/30, 09/10
    23G/season; 70%; 12.7%
    Havlat was a risk contract if he maintains his Shooting history and increases games played to 85%Then he becomes a top 40 scorer. has played 80% of games but a 16G/season player. boy that risk sure paid off.

    Hemsky ???? asking 5m and term 12/13
    9G/season; 51% availability; 11.7%

    Why yes a 9 G scorer should be in the same range as 3 of the leagues elite goa scorers and a 25 G set-up guy who is underpaid for his role. plus the havlat contract has shown that it is smart to ignore injury history cause players will be healthy after they sign

    LOL, I am diying Here, LOL

  44. CJ says:

    I’m not so sure that Renney is doing a good job with zone starts. Along with Hemsky, the kid create the most scoring chances off the rush. Starting them in their own zone would create more scoring chances off the rush. I’m not convinced that they would struggle any more than the rest of the team on own zone faceoffs.

  45. Captain Obvious says:

    VOR,

    I compared the players using the three seasons prior to the new contract. That makes the situations more analogous. I also used a weighted mean (3-2-1), weighing more recent seasons more, to calculate their performance. It is a well established finding that more recent performance is more predictive than older performance.

    Doing it your way makes the players appear closer than they are since the performance of all of the players declined after signing the new contract (which is its own cautionary tale).

    Doing it my way I get Hemsky as a .69 pt/game player. Even if you weight the seasons evenly he has only been a .74 pt/game player the past three seasons. This is in comparison to Pominville, Havlat, and Plekanec, who were paid to be .87, .95, and .73 pt/game players. The best case scenario for Hemsky is to consider him their even as offensive players and to have less certainty. Under these conditions, I think my number is the right one.

  46. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Goals per game | career | season
    ========================

    Plekanec ……….. | 0.26 | 0.21
    Sharp ……………. | 0.34 | 0.45
    Pominville ……… | 0.32 | 0.38
    Cammalleri ……. | 0.35 | 0.24
    Havlat …………… | 0.33 | 0.08
    Hemsky ………… | 0.22 | 0.09

    I know most prefer points-per-game, but one point that RickitheBear brings up that’s worth remembering is that real actual NHL contracts appear to be based on different criteria and not simply tailored to our own pet stats. For whatever reason — and I can’t imagine what it could be :| — NHL GM’s have always valued goal scorers and shown that love in terms of actual $$$. This has never been Hemsky’s strength; all the other guys on the list ‘cept Plekanec have scored at a 50% higher rate than Ales does over their respective careers. It’s probably part of the reason Oilers got that “value contract” last time and it will likely contribute to lowering his market value next time around as well. Especially the four-goals-in-mid-February version of Hemmer that is currently on display in a storefront window near you.

    (Edit: Note I wrote this without having seen the most RtB’s comment of a few minutes ago.)

  47. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Are you suggesting a la Ricki that GMs ignore PPG?

    Clearly a GM evaluating players only on the basis of PPG should be fired. But who is suggesting such a thing?

    Certainly PPG places Hemsky in a favorable light over his last two seasons. Is that favorable light to be discounted?

    Why wouldn’t a GM be interested to know that when on the ice a player produces? Isn’t that valuable information? Especially if one assumes that Hemsky has returned to post-surgery “normal” health and therefore should be expected to play the vast majority of his games?

    I don’t see why we need to spite one stat simply because it favors a player. Nor do I think we need to spite another stat because it exposes a weakness in a player.

    It is wholly unclear to me that Hemsky’s advocates are as myopic on the topic of PPG as his detractors are in disregarding PPG.

  48. Jamie says:

    I am puzzled why the same crowd that has complained loudly about signing injury prone players to long term contracts (Souray, Khabibulin and to a lesser extent Horcoff) wants to give Hemsky a 5 year deal. I like Hemsky a lot, and can’t stand this management team, but I have no problem with not taking a big risk on the health of Hemsky’s shoulders. Once bitten twice shy. And if you are not willing to give him a 5 or 6 year deal then you are obligated to get some sort of asset for him because he is gone July 1.

  49. oilers89 says:

    I actually find it hilarious that the Seguin and Hall debate is still going on, has anyone here even watched Seguin? Trust me it isn’t even close, I have never seen Seguin carry his line and every time I have watched him he has been the third best player on his line. This debate is becoming ridiculous, forget all those “underlying stats”, they are on completely different teams, it is apples to oranges, it really is.

  50. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Romulus Apotheosis: Bruce McCurdy, Are you suggesting a la Ricki that GMs ignore PPG?

    Not at all, & I don’t think Ricki is saying that either.

    >I don’t see why we need to spite one stat simply because it favors a player. Nor do I think we need to spite another stat because it exposes a weakness in a player.

    That’s exactly what I’m saying, Billy.

    I think both G/G and P/G are relevant (and a shitload of other stuff). A lot of the arguments I’m reading here stress P/G and pretty much ignore the rest. I’m trying to broaden the context here, not narrow it. When you are talking about contracts, it’s important to try to rate the same stuff the market rates.

  51. Clay says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Clay,

    Hey, how do you link to an exact clip from the Oilers’ video page? I can’t figure it out.

    Nothing special that I know of. Click on video you want, copy whatever is in the address bar, then put [a href=*whatever you copied*] except with the proper HTML brackets.

  52. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Not at all, & I don’t think Ricki is saying that either.

    That’s exactly what I’m saying, Billy.

    I think both G/G and P/G are relevant (and a shitload of other stuff). A lot of the arguments I’m reading here stress P/G and pretty much ignore the rest. I’m trying to broaden the context here, not narrow it. When you are talking about contracts, it’s important to try to rate the same stuff the market rates.

    In that case we are in complete agreement, Greg. All information is relevant.

    However, I think we have a markedly different impression of how this conversation has unfolded. Ricki has cited Hemsky’s average GP without the caveat of either his rookie season, or his two aberrational years suffering major injury. I think those caveats are worth mentioning. For example, he writes:

    “We do not get 100% of the games. Historically we get 65% to 75% games played.”
    “Averaged 58 games played the last 6 seasons”

    He has also cited Hemsky’s career Points Per Season average without mentioning his PPG. In that case too, I think a caveat is warranted. For example he writes:

    ” is he the 11G 37P forward 6 of 9 years.”

    To get these numbers he has to include Hemsky’s Rookie, Sophmore, 4th year, his two years cut short by injury and his current unfinished year. That is a weird stat to pull out and it reeks to me of fudging the numbers. Or he has said this:

    “More then 50% of the time you will get 42P or less out of an 82 Game season.”

    Basically the same thing. I think most GMs will take note of this. But I doubt they will isolate on this data the way Ricki seems to encourage us to.

    That is the context of this conversation as I see it. RIcki does not believe in PPG (at least in the case of Hemsky) and he is working very hard to help the rest of us ignore the stat. Since, as he claims:

    “Players are paid for 100% season.
    I believe curent p/Gm measure is inaccurate.
    it only looks at the healthy games. MASSIVE FAIL.. A season is 82 Games.
    Your points production should be measured in the games for the season.”

    Or more on how he feels about PPG:

    “Forgive me Cause hemsky is .9PPG player and the GREAT HOCKEY FAIRY COVERS THE REST OF THE MAN GAMES FOR HIS CRIPLED ASS misses.
    Just one question were was the GREAT HOCKEY FAIRY when gilbert and Whitney went down. Cause we could have used him and His twin Brothers1st pairing play during that time
    Or does he Exclusively cover for Hemsky’s injuries for free.”

    For my money there is only one side in this debate ignoring or marginalizing a set of data. Why is anyone’s guess.

  53. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Clay,

    thanks. but for whatever reason whenever I click on a video I only get the generic:

    http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console

    and not the individual video link… anyone have any thoughts?

  54. lazerguidedmelody says:

    Ryan Rishaug@TSNRyanRishaug

    Oilers deal O’marra for D Bryan Rodney as per team twitter

  55. VOR says:

    Bruce,

    That would be a good argument if you could actually prove that the current NHL GMs are doing a good job of rating talent. Then we could discuss what metric they are using. Then you could make some rational arguments for what Hemsky is worth to the market as a whole.

    However, even if we could do that, which we can’t, it still wouldn’t tell us what the successful bid for Hemsky would be. If you pro rate using your goals per game thing then Hemsky is only worth $2.5 M per year by your argument. And this guy with .19 goals per game would be worth even less. Maybe $2.3 M. Thus the GM who pays him $6.1 M must not have got the memo about only goals counting. Christ that player is so bad, why 76.25% of all his points don’t count because they are assists. Or the guy whose career is marred by 70% assists, what was he thinking? Or the GM who pays him $12 M. That GM must be nuts. Strangely nobody holds high assist rates against either Henrik Sedin or Brad Richards. Or do assists from a center matter more than those from a winger. That must be it.

    The blunt truth, and there is no way to spin it, is that Hemsky out scores in total points all these guys but Havlat. As a GM all I care about his can the guy out play, and do it consistently. Hemsky can. Can the guy put up a ton of points? Hemsky can. More than the rest of these schleps and as well as Havlat. Full stop.

    The absurd idea that the last three years is the marker to use in determining value in a new contract seems to be gaining currency here. Hemsky points per game last three seasons .921 or using Captain Obvious weighting system .918 per game. This makes it easy to see how Ricki Bear and Captain Obvious are thinking, apprantly an incomplete season by Hemsky counts more than a complete season by any one else, then if you weight 3 to 1 you can maybe make him look worse than these guys instead of better. So first you cherry pick his worst year (even though it isn’t a full year) and they you say it is a well known fact that most recent performance is the best predictor of future performance and everyone knows that. If you can’t site a source then you go to the everybody knows argument. really, everybody? Wow, word gets around does it? Then you decide you know how much more predictive it is (apparently everybody who knows more recent performance is a predictor of the future also knows the most recent partial year can be compared to other players full years and that on top of that it is 3 times more predictive than the year two seasons ago.) Wow. I must have really have been sleeping to miss all this great new knowledge that hockey statisticians have blessed us with. Can you share with me the web page or scientific paper so I can get up to speed.

    Why can’t any of you say, I hate Hemsky. I believe everything I read in the MSM. I will distort math and statistics until they are meaningless to help drive the turkey out of town.

    Do you really believe some GM is going to get Hemsky for less than $5M and for less than 4 years?

  56. nathan says:

    Bruce,

    RTB’s ‘math’ calculated $3.3M / year as Hemsky’s value. The agent’s front lawn would look like an audition for American Idol.

  57. rickithebear says:

    Bruce:

    You get! the PPG is a great top end indicator. but like i have been trying to show.
    Gm’s value
    1.goal scorers. 30 G gets you 5.5M
    2. Great set-up point getters. 25G 65P gets you 5.8M
    3. tough minute players. first rfa contract 2.3M; ufa 4.1M
    4. Players who can play most of the season. means closer to 100% value of contract.

    I look at hemsky and he has played the toughs from at least 07-08.
    I am well aware of his 4 Goals but i also look at his Shooting % and know he should be at 8-10G
    which takes him to 2.00 points /60.
    It is obvious he is the only 1st line Comp RW UFA. but there are the value factors on the list.
    1. Elite goalscore NO
    2. +25G high Assist NO
    3. toughs Forward Yes 4.1M
    4. Getting 100% value of contract. NO Most of the time 50-75%

    So we talk about Risk Contracts.
    No better example is KHB.
    3.75M for injured under performing Player.
    I see hemsky as the same. Dumb Risk.

    So we look at second line comps with Ist potential UFA’s
    Parenteau seeking 4YR@3.75M Hello!
    Grabovski +5M NO
    Ruutu +5M NO
    Doan ??????
    Penner 25-2.75M yes please

    6 options and only two with math that works. Penner will not come back and parenteau likely to end up signed.

    So i do realize dumping hemsky creates a toughs hole. however what his camp asks is idiocy.

    VOR: you just wrote on Arguement that says GM’s are stupid and we should be too. Beauty!

  58. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    VOR,
    nathan,

    I’m going to give Greg the benefit of the doubt here. He jumped into the conversation late. That, and I agree with him.

    But VOR you are absolutely right. Some of these people should just come out and say either “I hate Hemsky” or “I like to irritate Hemsky fans” because it is one or the other (or both).

    What’s funny about Ricki’s 3.5M number is how realistic he thinks it is and yet we are all going to sit back and watch reality serve up Hemsky a much bigger number followed by Ricki’s head exploding.

  59. VOR says:

    By the way Bruce I didn’t mean all of that for you. I am just saying the argument about Hemsky, as RA just pointed out is filled with the Hemsky haters manipulating numbers and resorting to unproven arguments (like a current partial season is 3 times more predictive than the season he played two years ago). You said GMs pay more for goals and the thing is you have no more mathematical backing for that than Captian Obvious does for his 3,2,1 rating system. At least your position has the merit of possibly being true whereas his is undiluted crap but I’d still like to see a source since I just spent time organizing the top fifty paid players by assits and by goals and the assist list more closely resembles their order of pay. Now I did drop goalies (not notorious goal scorers and thus useless crap to the max). I did however leave in defencemen since if goals scored is so predictive defencemen should be at the bottom of the list. I did try sorting the D by goals and assists and even then assists appear to the better predictor. If you look at centers assists matter far more. So GMs might be overvaluing goals by forwards and that appears to be true right up until you sort the list by total points. Points appear to matter. Try it yourself, don’t take my word for it. If points matter Mr. Hemsky is looking at a big payday. I didn’t try it with things like points at time of signing or goals at time of signing. I am sure Captain Obvious will and get back to us.

  60. bookje says:

    I think the Sutton signing and the O’Mara trade might be signs that something is up. Keep your ear to the twitter as a 2-3 player for 1 player trade seems viable right now.

  61. lazerguidedmelody says:

    bookje:
    I think the Sutton signing and the O’Mara trade might be signs that something is up.Keep your ear to the twitter as a 2-3 player for 1 player trade seems viable right now.

    Not sure the runes read that kind of trade. Looks like trading for a minor league offensive D shores up OKC for the play-offs

  62. VOR says:

    No Ricki, my argument was that you guys are playing silly bugger games with numbers. Of course you will never admit that despite being caught red handed.

    My other argument went like this. The average GM is average but some are stupid. In free agency Hemsky’s agent will find one of the stupid ones.

    I have said repeatedly, long term, front end loaded at $4.5. That is indeed .75M more than PAP would cost us, probably. However, we know Hemsky’s stats aren’t distorted by playing with John Tavares. My contract would make Hemsky relatively easy to trade when we need the money for our rising stars.

    I am saying he is going to get at least $5 for 4 years. We could sign him cheaper. That is below fair value at the present time. Isn’t that smart, or does the cost per point also not matter to GMs right along with assists? I am still waiting for any prove that goal scorers can score on their own. Please feel free to send that along.

  63. Clay says:

    Re: Hall vs. Seguin

    When it all boils down, what you have here are two very special players, who most likely will only be distinguishable 20 years from now when we see what they achieve over their careers in terms of Stanleys and awards, and not by goals and assists 1.5 years into their pro careers.

    It’s not like we’re talking the Oilers taking Alex Daigle over Chris Pronger here.

  64. Marc says:

    LT – “There are young defensemen out there who are not yet playing vital roles on NHL teams. The Oilers might be wise to make a list of all of the “Ian Cole’s” working in the AHL and start knocking on doors.”

    http://oilersnation.com/2012/2/8/trade-deadline-primer-20

    The Edmonton Oilers acquired defenceman Bryan Rodney from the Anaheim Ducks on Thursday in exchange for centre Ryan O’Marra.
    http://tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=388016

    Eerie.

  65. regwald says:

    Marc,

    About 15 minutes before the official news, Stauffer tweeted that the Oilers were looking to add an offensive dman to OKC. Said something coming shortly.

    Obviously he knew of the trade when he tweeted it before the official release.

  66. nathan says:

    “Do you really believe some GM is going to get Hemsky for less than $5M and for less than 4 years?”

    I think 4 X 5M is a pretty good over/under.

    I’m over. The Oilers would be smart to do that number. But they won’t go that far and the buyer will probably go higher.

  67. Jordan says:

    Huh. Trading a former 1st round pick for an undrafted offensive D man with defensive coverage issues?

    Did Ken Holland put on his Tambellini mask again?

  68. bookje says:

    lazerguidedmelody: Not sure the runes read that kind of trade. Looks like trading for a minor league offensive D shores up OKC for the play-offs

    I was thinking that perhaps it was a Defensman for OKC that would allow someone like Tuebert to be added to Hemsky to bring back an NHL level Defenseman.

  69. Jordan says:

    bookje,
    Cue the Hemsky and Teubert for Schenn rumors… D:

  70. hunter1909 says:

    Taylor Hall is the most elite new oiler since the dynasty.

    RNH has got himself injured in the middle of his own astonishing rookie season, and has given us long suffering fans(really it’s like Dante’s Inferno around here at times) a second superstar forward to look forward to.

    But Hall, he’s got something you can’t buy – he’s an ox, and with the determination of Mark Messier; who for the younger fans provided the team with the last true first line centre to play for the team, unless you are desperate enough to count Doug Weight, who not only won nothing for the oilers but left Dodge as fast as his agent could arrange the ticket out of town. At least Messier stuck around long enough to win 5 cups, lol.

    Taylor Hall in any game seven and I’m happy to take any/all bets against his team coming out ahead.

    If he’s healthy next year, I’ll happily predict a 40 goal season.

    PS: How about those Flames!? 1 point out of 8th.

  71. Woodguy says:

    According to NYT sports reporter Richard Sandomir’s twitter:

    From: @RichSandomir
    Sent: Feb 16, 2012 2:57p

    According to his daughter, Gary Carter has died

    That sucks.

    RIP sir.

  72. LMHF#1 says:

    hunter1909:
    Taylor Hall is the most elite new oiler since the dynasty.

    That’s an interesting comment considering he’s not even the best player or best young player on the team. Until he actually passes #14 (if he ever does) that title belongs to Mr. Eberle.

    I of course appreciate Hall, but some of the treatment by the Oilers and media is borderline disrespect for #14 and too much praise of #4. I’m nitpicking a bit, but give the guy with the complete game, the hockey brain and the best shot in the conference his due.

  73. rickithebear says:

    VOR: I am stating Value.
    Not what he is going to get.
    Heck BUF paid Ville Leino, 27M/5yr
    Florida Paid Upshall 14M/4yr.

    Does hemsky PK? No. it is important to remeber the best pk’ers influence the game just as much as the best PP players. Jones and Belanger are top 20 Pk’ers. They have more influence than hemsky on Special teams.
    Will hemsky be #1PP unit on this team? NO
    Can his role on the 2nd unit be replaced by a player in the system. Based on Omarks end of season performance and increased rotation from the side boards.YES

    Can his Ev toughs play be replaced. NO. Not unless we sign: Whitney, Parenteau, Doan, Penner to play RW not likely. so a younger player is goingto get the chance to step up.

  74. rickithebear says:

    Jordan: bookje,Cue the Hemsky and Teubert for Schenn rumors… D:

    Bookjie said NHL dman.

  75. cabbiesmacker says:

    LMHF#1:

    I of course appreciate Hall, but some of the treatment by the Oilers and media is borderline disrespect for #14 and too much praise of #4. I’m nitpicking a bit, but give the guy with the complete game, the hockey brain and the best shot in the conference his due.

    Renney’s guilty of the same thing LMHF

  76. hunter1909 says:

    @ LMHF number one: after Hemsky’s traded, would you mind if I call myself Loud Mouthed Hall Fan?

    Seriously, Eberle is also on another level. Please forgive my pro-Hall stance here, as am taking the long(read: official front office) view of things, namely, oilers won’t be competing for anything until opening night at the new dome.

    The fact is: oiler’s have hall, RNH, Eberle, and Gagner, with the potentially astonishing addition of Yakupov next lottery day.

    How can this fail?

  77. Jordan says:

    rickithebear,

    Of course he did. The Oilers think that Cam Barker is an NHL D-man. Are you suggesting that Schenn is worse than Cam Barker?

    Actually, now I’m curious to see what a paring of Barker-Schenn would look like. Probably just bad, but I’m curious to see if the absolute awefulness would create a singularity of some kind…

    hunter1909:
    How can this fail?

    I suspect that if the team is managed by Lowebellini that it is guaranteed to fail. They seem really good at producing losing teams.

  78. Ribs says:

    Fussy tweets…

    #Oilers have offered Khabibulin, Hemsky and a 3rd to #Leafs for Schenn and conditional 2nd as per Garfield

    Nice call.

  79. Ribs says:

    Deal depends on Nash trade as per Garfield

  80. Ribs says:

    Hemsky had rejected a 1yr 4.5M deal from the Oilers APG

  81. godot10 says:

    Ribs,

    The conditional 2nd would be probably dependent on Hemsky signing in Toronto.

  82. stevezie says:

    Speaking of trades, only one week ago Barker was being widely discussed (by people outside this blog) as one of the Oilers’ top D. Does he have any trade value? Anyone looking to deal for Sutton clearly wasn’t that picky, and a lot of people who don’t watch the Oil every game seem to think he’s good.

  83. spoiler says:

    Hall is a Corsi machine. And most of the shots are his. I was looking at this last week when I was on a real box (and not on this phone) and it seems he drives the Corsis of his linemates. I’m not sure, in the specific case of Hall’s line, how indicative Corsi is of zone possession. He takes a ton of outside shots, bad angles etc. I think Zone shift might tell us something more about that, but the Ozone end column is cut off in LT’s article above. By memory, I don’t think it was positive.

  84. spoiler says:

    If Grossman can bring a 2nd and 3rd rounder, surely Barker and a 4th can bring us a 7th rounder?

  85. spoiler says:

    Hmm… That’s an interesting trade Unmentionables has pulled out of her thong. Schenn might turn into a Chris Phillips type guy. His contract is a bit dear for his age and the offense he brings but he is the perfect age.

    He won’t be as helpful as Hemsky would be for the next couple of years, but he might be more helpful when these kids mature.

  86. VOR says:

    By the way Bruce,

    The only factor that correlates above chance with the salaries of the top 25 players is points per game in the three full seasons leading up to their free agency and even it is very weak. Looking just at forwards (which is a tiny sample size) points per game, goals per game and assists per game all have r values of .5. Whatever else there is no evidence in the ridiculous top 25 salaries thart GMs pay for goals preferentially and you’d think the guys throwing the money around would be at least equally as likely to over value goals as their more conversative associates. The lowest ranked goals per game is .13 and that guy is the 4th highest paid player in the league. At .67 goals per game we have Alexander Ovechkin who is the 7th highest paid player. Goals and points do a fine job of predicting the 1 and 2 ranked forwards but get worse after that. When we go to top 50 paid forwards none of goals, assists, points or gpg, apg, ppg, g/60, a/60 or p/60 correlate above chance. Which is just weird.

    I am open to suggestions to what stats I could check and analysize to see if goals per game drives salary more than assists, points, etc.

    I also gave Captain Obvious’ idea a test run. The idea that the most predictive year for the 24 players (drop the goalie) with the top salaries would be the last year before their new contract. the outcome of their first year of their current contract was predicted by the full year immediately preceding it in 8 of 24 cases. The year before that predicted the outcome four times. The furthest year back in a Captain Obvious sense predicted the outcome 12 times. There was no evidence whatsoever that the more recent the performance the better it predicted the first year outcome of a new contract.

  87. spoiler says:

    Deal depends on Nash trade?* Must be if the Nash trade doesn’t happen. Don’t the Leaves need centres?

    *assuming none of this is BS, which is a fairly hefty assumption.

  88. spoiler says:

    VOR

    Out of curiosity, and only if you have the time, how strong is the correlation of past injury to future injury? Does missing 20+ games per season as a F strongly/weakly indicate the future will hold the same?

  89. Lois Lowe says:

    spoiler:
    Don’t the Leaves need centres?

    They have pretty good depth at centre with Bozak, Lombardi, Grabovski, Connelly, Steckel currently. I could see them wanting to upgrade for a Carter type player, but I think it would need to be a clear upgrade.

  90. DSF says:

    danny:
    DSF,

    DSF, You’ll note that I have never knocked Seguin, nor have I stated that Hall is/was/will be the best player… I think he will be, but theres a long ways to go before anyone can make that claim.

    This is in response to your gloating earlier in the season when Seguin was destroying Hall. MacGregor dropped the ball last draft, etc…

    Oh, I agree there is a long way to go but I still think Seguin would have been a better fit for the Oilers at the time and still is.

    While Seguin isn’t playing centre now, can you imagine running Seguin and Hopkins down the middle for the next decade.

    Conventional wisdom, and generally results, dictate that great teams are built from the goaltender out, with a passle of above average defensemen and strength down the middle.

    Of course, the Oilers have a few potentially elite wingers, one very promising centre and not much else.

    No surprise they’re 29th and likely will remain a doormat until those issues are addressed.

    I think the real issue with Hall is going to be durability as we’ve already seen.

    Last night, he was half a second and 6 inches from being road kill and, unless he changes his style of play, the consequences are pretty obvious.

  91. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Fwiw, some days it seems the Hemmer Haters hate me because I sometimes praise the object of their wrath, and the Hemsky Lovers don’t love me because sometimes I criticize him. The middle ground is rarefied territory for this guy. A very polarizing figure.

  92. DSF says:

    He’s no Sam Gagner…but Claude Giroux with a 5 point night.

  93. Schitzo says:

    DSF: While Seguin isn’t playing centre now, can you imagine running Seguin and Hopkins down the middle for the next decade.

    Knowing the Oilers they’d be worried about having too many centres, and we’d end up with Landeskog in 2011. I’d take Hall/Nuge over that. But yeah, I agree, in a perfect world that’s a steller 1-2 punch down the middle.

  94. VOR says:

    Bruce,

    For what it is worth, I love Hemsky but really think as a 2RW the money he has earned as a 1RW is too much to pay him. I just hate the ongoing attempts to warp the numbers to make he look like he isn’t worth decent money, because he is. Just probably not on this team.

    There is no need to try to prove that he is shit and bitch about how Hemsky is always first off the ice. Admit he is a good player, who we will miss, find hard to replace, but too expensive for his new role. Now either trade him to someone where he can be a 1 RW or sign him to term and trade him in a couple of years. Maximize the asset.

    I don’t know why each side feels this need to try to make him out to be something he isn’t. He isn’t a true super star, but is a highly effective player. He has worked his butt off and been our best player for years. He isn’t our best player any more and I am not convinced he is working as hard or taking the risks he did before. He is a great outplayer but doesn’t get great results. I could go on but won’t.

    Spoiler,

    That is an immensely tough question, the best I can do with out spending days is take a quick look at active NHL players and their injury history. Using 20 games missed in a single year mid career for an NHL regular as a parameter there just aren’t that many NHL regulars who have missed that much time. Ignoring goalies and going through active rosters it appears only about 142 players currently playing in the NHL as regulars have ever had an injury that serious. I assume many badly injured players don’t keep playing and thus just looking at active players skews the sample very badly.

    Given there are only 142 there isn’t a large enough sample size to ask things like does age of injury factor into how resilient you are, are there such a thing as a brittle player (always hurt), has the ability to come back changed over time, does it matter if you had surgery.

    What I can say is this, I was stunned by how often players seem to come back to as good as new following serious injury (with or without surgery). I think we could legitimately say around 75% actually come back all the way and it doesn’t seem to matter whether it is one injury or chromic injuries. Again, I assume that is because looking at current players skews the sample.

    I am guessing you are asking about Hemsky and I don’t think we know enough to say anything for certain. Hemsky could be Martin Havlat who up until this year had played 81, 73, and 78 games per year following a very similar injury history. A run in which he scored 232 points. Or perhaps he is poor Stan Smyl and the rest of his career he is going to be shadow of his former self. There is honestly no way of knowing. Anybody who says otherwise has an axe to grind one way or another.

  95. DSF says:

    VOR:
    Bruce,

    There is honestly no way of knowing. Anybody who says otherwise has an axe to grind one way or another.

    And that’s exactly why Hemsky is a bad bet.

    I have no axe to grind with Hemsky…I think he’s a fine player but any contract he is offered needs to be based on his entire body of work not his performance when healthy and productive.

    Replacing what he brings to the Oilers is NOT all that difficult.

  96. spoiler says:

    DSF:
    He’s no Sam Gagner…but Claude Giroux with a 5 point night.

    Jesus, my pool team sure needs that. It’s in second place but slowly sliding without Backstrom. If Chris Neil would kindly punch a few guys out, it would also be appreciated.

  97. DSF says:

    spoiler: Jesus, my pool team sure needs that. It’s in second place but slowly sliding without Backstrom. If Chris Neil would kindly punch a few guys out, it would also be appreciated.

    Stamkos with 2G and 2A.

    Got him?

  98. spoiler says:

    VOR,

    Yeah, tough for sure, I know. That’s why I haven’t lifted a finger in that direction myself. Would have to gather data over many many seasons… Was hoping you were one of them there script kiddie phenoms, lol.

    But I think you’re instincts are correct. Once the data is gathered, if I remember my distant education correctly, the best it can tell us is the rate of recurring injury and not the probability. Mortality tables never say there’s a 25% chance of surviving such and such disease, rather 25 out of 100 survive. There’s no way of telling which category any one given individual will fall into. Rather, out of a group, about so many do and about so many don’t; the bigger the group, the closer the numbers are to their historical averages.

  99. spoiler says:

    DSF

    Nope, no Stamkos. Took H.Sedin with my first pick. IIRC, Stamkos was already gone. Certainly was before my 2nd (Backstrom).

  100. hunter1909 says:

    @ LMHF number one: Seriously man, Eberle looks like he’s channelling Jari Kurri, Glenn Anderson and Mike Bossy.

    Eberle is so good, the entire hockey world likes him. Even Flame fans currently enjoying their 9th place, single point out of playoff team like him.

    Other fans wait until Team Canada looks like 1984, because there are going to be so many oilers on it especially after they end up in 29th place and luck out in the lottery.

    It’s pretty obvious there is a Hall, Eberle, and RNH debate, which will do nothing but drive all three to be the best they can be.

    Yikes.

  101. art vandelay says:

    Seguin vs Hall is only an argument for people out east, everyone out west put that to rest ages ago. Seguin is good, but Hall brings something to the ice very very few players around the entire league do.

    Phhht. One guy helped his team win a Stanley Cup, thanks in part to a 4-point performance in a pivotal Game 2 v Tampa. The other guy toils for a perennial sack 0 sh!t franchise that is once again poised to draft near the top.
    Enjoy your RelCorsi, Oilers fans.

  102. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    art vandelay:
    Seguin vs Hall is only an argument for people out east, everyone out west put that to rest ages ago. Seguin is good, but Hall brings something to the ice very very few players around the entire league do.

    Phhht. One guy helped his team win a Stanley Cup, thanks in part to a 4-point performance in a pivotal Game 2 v Tampa. The other guy toils for a perennial sack 0 sh!t franchise that is once again poised to draft near the top.
    Enjoy your RelCorsi, Oilers fans.

    Ah yes… the grouping argument. I too evaluate things on the basis of their affiliations. It’s so much easier.

  103. Ribs says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Clay,
    thanks. but for whatever reason whenever I click on a video I only get the generic:
    http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console
    and not the individual video link… anyone have any thoughts?

    I see that they’ve changed things up a bit there. To get the code you just need to click on the SHARE button at the bottom of the video and select LINK from the top menu. It should enter it into the provided box for you.

  104. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Funny thing is, to me Hemsky potentially has more value as a 2RW than a 1RW. I think of a guy like Marian Hossa trying to deliver all the mail down there in Atlanta and getting nowhere, but being a dangerous secondary threat in Pittsburgh, Detroit, Chicago, even Ottawa in his early days. Bring the guy on after the other guys have focussed on shutting down the first scoring unit and set him loose.

    I’m not saying Hemsky = Hossa but I do think the comparable roles worthy of consideration. Hossa had to move on to contenders to find that niche, but in Hemsky’s case it could be building up around him.

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