To The Moon, Ales!

One of the things Steve Tambellini accomplished yesterday is signing a quality veteran to a fair contract. The key element for Tambellini–and for the Oilers–is being creative when it comes time to sign Hall, Eberle and the Nuge. It’s no easy task, but is vital to the success of the organization. We don’t know the rules of engagement–the new CBA will no doubt have all kinds of nuance that is currently out in the ether–but the fact remains that the Edmonton Oilers need to be very right on these contracts.

John Muckler on Ken Holland: “I think he’s taken a tough system with the cap (system) and worked it to his advantage with the signing of Franzen and Zetterberg. Those two contracts were okayed by the National Hockey League, whereas Kovalchuk’s contract (with New Jersey) was not, and they are very similar. Holland was the first one to (extend contract term to minimize salary cap hit). I mean, he’s got a great imagination.”

The new CBA isn’t written yet and the wording will have a major impact on things. Having said that, any club can lay the groundwork by signing smart contracts under the current rules. Hemsky is one, a veteran signed to a fair number, with said player recovering from an injury that historically returns him to previous levels.

One of the big differences between a team like Detroit–strong contender each season and a Stanley winner with regularity–and many of the also-rans is cap wisdom. Added to intelligent procurement–Ottawa is rumored to be acquiring Ben Bishop today, a very wise move–cap management is a key element to long term success.

I was thinking about this yesterday. We have some pretty smart people here at this blog, I wonder if we have any ideas about what an innovative Taylor Hall long term deal might look like? I know some will say “it writes itself” but the second contract often melds into the one that buys free agent years these days and that’s a consideration, too.

Any recent contracts with top end youth catch your eye?

 

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103 Responses to "To The Moon, Ales!"

  1. DBO says:

    ANd now for the numbers people to show up! LOL. I work at a nu,bers job and here are a few ideas that may fly:

    1. I posted this the other day, not about Hall but about Horcoff. I wonder with the new amnesty (probably), there is a way to keep him but cut his deal down to like $2 mill. All this is predicated on the theory that you can resign your own amnestied players. If so, i hope the org considers this:
    – You amnesty Horcoff (if it follows the last one, it is 2/3 cap hit, no spreading out over twice the time, just owe 2/3 and free and clear). You then resign Horc to the missing term and dollars (which is $1.83 mill). So basically you get Horcoff n a 3 year $2 mill deal. That is good value for a solid 3rd line centre. Takes away a ton of cap issues and keeps the “chemistry” intact.

    2. Hall + Eberle: This will get tricky,but i look at Anaheim who had Getzlaf and Perry sign identical deals. May be needed, so that there is no ill will. They were only 5 year deals at $5.325 mill cap hit. It bought 2 years of UFA, putting them at 27 as a UFA again. That would mean for Hall a similiar deal. Attractive to the playr since it allows them to get a 3rd deal probably better then their 2nd deal.

    3. Hall and Eberle: other option is the Zetterberg deal. Just over $6 mill for 10 years. If a player loves the team and city, then this puts the kids at 31 and 32. Still time for one more decent 5 year deal ala Iginla. That is the selling point, Hemsky wentto 32, you can too. And Iginla got a nice 5 year deal for good money, so if you are healthy and productive you will reap the rewards later. Sell them on 10 years of dominance (which at this point seems a stretch).

  2. Traktor says:

    The only thing I will say is that its important to get your best player signed early to set a line in the sand for every other player.

    If I was the GM I would sign Taylor Hall, give him the captaincy and let it be known that nobody makes more than Taylor Hall.

    Once you have all the kids locked up it makes finding value contracts a lot easier because you know exactly how much you can spend and you have a line in the sand that cannot be crossed.

  3. nathan says:

    For reference here’s what the Blackhawks did back in the day:

    “CHICAGO — Looking to the future, the surging Chicago Blackhawks signed three of their top players — Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and Duncan Keith — to lucrative contract extensions Thursday.

    Kane and Toews, both 21, signed five-year deals worth US$31.5 million each. Keith, a defenceman, got a 13-year contract worth $72 million.”

    When your core lottery picks are willing to sign to identical terms and leave room for a quality team it helps. The Hemsky signing set the right tone.

  4. Woodguy says:

    You would hope they use Tavares for the comp.

    He just signed for 6 years at a 5.5MM cap hit.

    They bought two years of UFA (I’d like to see them try to buy three with the kids)

    Tavares’ contract is 4,5, 6, 6, 6, 6

    I know some have said that 4 and 14 will be $7MM, but cap inflation will slow down a bit (Canadian dollar finding a home near parity, good markets near sold out, only some new TV money coming)

    I’d try to buy 3 UFA years for both kids at a $6.5MM or so over $45.5M over 7 years each.

    Something like 5, 5, 6, 6, 7.5, 7.5, 7.5

    First 4 are RFA years, last 3 are UFA years.

    We’ll know a lot more after the new CBA comes down.

    All reporters are now saying long contracts whould be avoided at all costs, but the 1st contract after ELC years should be long to get value in later years.

    Burke lamented that Lowe killed the 2nd contract after sheeting Penner, and he may be partially right on middle of the road players, but if you have a good player coming off of ELC you should move heaven and earth to make a long contract to buy up as many UFA years as possible. Combining them with the RFA should make the later years value years vs the cap hit if the good Lord is willing and the river don’t rise.

  5. Traktor says:

    Ottawa gets Bishop for a 2nd.

    They have a better starter than us and Robin Lehner is better than anything we have in the system and now the Sens trade for another goalie with high potential.

    I’m not saying Bishop was the answer but its interesting that some teams try to improve while others, well, do nothing.

  6. bookje says:

    I would sign Hall, Eberle, and RNH each to a 21 year personal service contracts worth $21-million each and then proceed to dominate the NHL for years to come.

  7. Lowetide says:

    Traktor: Yeah, that’s definitely an opportunity missed for the Oilers. A 2nd rd pick in a subpar draft is a very small price to pay for a reasonable bet. Murray made a nice move there.

  8. DSF says:

    One of the linchpins of the new CBA is likely going to be a maximum contract term.

    Most of the speculation I’ve seen is that contracts will be limited to 5 year terms although I’m sure that will be subject to negotiation and may also be related to the age of the player involved.

    With respect to the amnesty, most speculation is that the players bought out under its terms will be placed on waivers rather than become free agents in a further effort by Bettman to create parity.

  9. hunter1909 says:

    Nice to see Lowetide so fricking happy. I’ll buy into the thought of an Oiler actually staying with the team. For now.

    Re Hall/Eberle/RNH, and to a slightly lesser extent Gagner/MPS: one hopes that the collateral effect of the Hemsky allowing himself to be pressured by the boys to sign a deal speaks volumes for this Taylor Hall led youth movement.

    I say Hall, because he’s got as much or more drive to win the cup than anyone. Boy, have oilers get three future star NHL forwards, and Gagner’s really looking like paying off after his 4 season rookie campaign. Isn’t he an RFA? That seems like the next big thing for the management to address.

    But Hall/RNH/Eberle can all be signed for 21 year deals, all on the same day; right before the league changes the rules.

    Last night’s game was perfect. A loss(Montreal I firmly think has secretly decided to get with the tank+gain real players program) helps stabilize that chicken shit 4 point 29th place cushion everyone’s suffered 3/4 of the 2011-12 season to achieve.

  10. Wolfie says:

    Something like the Tavares contract. The big decision for both parties is term. I would love to have those 3 locked up to long-term contracts. Something like 10 years at an average of around 5.5 million dollars.

    Something like 4-5-5-6-7-7-7-6-5-5. Adjust as you see fit. I don’t think I go longer than 10 years though.

  11. skidplate says:

    I was hoping the Oilers were going to deal with St. Louis for Stewart and Bishop.

    Oh well, we can’t make every trade……

  12. SteadyEd says:

    Woodguy,

    The only benefit to buying UFA years is if you can get them for value. I don’t think that with a 6.5M cap-hit you’re buying anything (but their excellent services). 7 years is too long for me too. I’d take my chances with 5. If one or two don’t want to stay you’re going to be able to re-tool with what they bring in return.

  13. Woodguy says:

    SteadyEd:
    Woodguy,

    The only benefit to buying UFA years is if you can get them for value.I don’t think thatwith a 6.5M cap-hit you’re buying anything (but their excellent services).7 years is too long for me too.I’d take my chances with 5.If one or two don’t want to stay you’re going to be able to re-tool with what they bring in return.

    The thought is also by the time they get to their UFA years,$7.5 is about or slightly under market and their cap hit of $6.5 is value.

    If you want to re-tool (re-build 4.6), then those contracts are moveable.

  14. SteadyEd says:

    Woodguy,

    I guess the question is about prognostication then. It’s easier (in theory) to see 5 years out as opposed to 7 or 10.

  15. Lowetide says:

    Well I think the benefit is winning during that 5-year window. Should the Oilers end up signing Hall to a 5-year deal after his entry level deal, that window has to be filled with some deep runs. Otherwise, you’re Columbus and eventually Hall turns into Nash and asked for a trade.

  16. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide:
    Well I think the benefit is winning during that 5-year window. Should the Oilers end up signing Hall to a 5-year deal after his entry level deal, that window has to be filled with some deep runs. Otherwise, you’re Columbus and eventually Hall turns into Nash and asked for a trade.

    Maybe if this mythical five year window opens in about 3-5 years from now. This is a 29th place team and 10 years for three geniuses gives everyone what they want, and with this kind of stability Tambellini can keep his cosa nostra style when negotiating with everyone else.

    It’s a pretty lousy scenario, if these guys leave. On the other hand, set up a decent supporting cast, and they’re almost certain to win 2-3 cups.

  17. SteadyEd says:

    Yes Sir- winning is a must. I think that a 5 year term (after entry level deal) keeps the young-bucks properly motivated for success too. Hockey players should never feel too comfortable.

  18. Marc says:

    Teams that have two or more star players needing contracts at the same time seem to be able to leverage that into much better value contracts than teams coming to terms with a star on his own, even if that star is just an RFA. Compare the contracts of the Sedins, Toews and Kane or Perry and Getzlaf with the deals signed by Nash, Stamkos, Stansney and Kopitar – the former are all earning less than the latter in spite of the fact that the former (with the exception of the Sedins) were key contributors to Stanley Cup winners where the latter have won nothing.

    It’s easy to see why. When a team has one player better than everyone else they bend over backwards to keep them happy. When two stars need new contracts though, the team can say to both of them that they don’t want to pay either more than the other because they are equally important to the team’s success. The team can also say to that they want to build a great team around the two of them, so if they’re willing to take a bit less than market value then that extra cap space will be used to retain key free agents instead of replacing them with cheaper, crappier ones.

    I can see Tambellini approaching Eberle and Hall along these lines next season. And if they bite on long term value contracts it helps set a precedent for the whole team – no one gets more than the stars do and contracts are set based on how good you are relative to the stars.

  19. Braden28 says:

    I know Tambi is still in the process of stock pilling draft picks for Stu, but everytime i see a trade of a pick for a useful player, i wonder when it is our turn to start doing that too. I hope he was in talks for Bishop (2nd), Grossman (2nd and 3rd) and Quincey (1rst), but something tells me he wasn’t and won’t be for a couple years.

  20. gogliano says:

    I think one thing all contracts should do if you take the “we’ll spend as much as we can” approach is to forward as much money on the front end as possible. Not only do players prefer to have the money up front, but front ended contracts are worth more in real dollar terms (because of net present value) by a substantial amount. Spread over all the contracts on the team this can have a huge effect on how much one is truly spending in relation to one’s peers. The kids especially need to know this and management should step in and give them big cash now for cheap term later. And net present value is one of the big reasons for extending term even longer–the more cash you can load up front, the more actual money you can spend (in NPV terms) relative to actual cap hit.

    Also, Marc’s comment above is excellent. Hall/Eberle should also set the bar for RNH/Grigorenko.

  21. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Fk. ST still celebrating making his first decision of the year in signing 83? Sleeping at the helm again. Surely St Lou would have taken the Oilers 2nd over the Sens. No brainer. Low risk, good bet – those are the moves that astute GMs make. Really pissed on this one.

  22. commonfan14 says:

    Is July 1st the start date for when you can sign a player going into the last year of his deal to an extension?

    If so, the Oil could always sign Hall and Eberle up long-term this summer before the current CBA expires and exploit the existing loop-holes for all they’re worth.

    It would be interesting to see exactly how far you can push things post-Kovalchuck. Would matching front-loaded 22-year deals for $100 million and $4.56 million cap hits pass the smell test?

    Incredibly ballsy (or just plain crazy) due to the DiPietro potential if they start getting chronic injuries, but they’d be Oilers for life at incredible cap hits.

    I doubt it will be possible to make such deals when the new CBA comes in, so the time is now if they want to get nuts.

  23. DSF says:

    commonfan14:
    Is July 1st the start date for when you can sign a player going into the last year of his deal to an extension?

    If so, the Oil could always sign Hall and Eberle up long-term this summer before the current CBA expires and exploit the existing loop-holes for all they’re worth.

    It would be interesting to see exactly how far you can push things post-Kovalchuck.Would matching front-loaded 22-year deals for $100 million and $4.56 million cap hits pass the smell test?

    Incredibly ballsy (or just plain crazy) due to the DiPietro potential if they start getting chronic injuries,but they’d be Oilers for life at incredible cap hits.

    I doubt it will be possible to make such deals when the new CBA comes in, so the time is now if they want to get nuts.

    If I’m not mistaken, teams can’t discuss or sign new contract extensions until after July 1st.

    One would assume the NHL will put a moratorium on all new signings until details of the new CBA are hammered out.

  24. nathan says:

    “I can see Tambellini approaching Eberle and Hall along these lines next season”

    Hall and RNH likely set the top of the scale. By the time they need to decide more time and more uphill work could bring Eberle to the same place.

  25. GordM says:

    It would never happen but I’d like to see player contracts in the form of “% of cap” vs. a straight dollar figure:

    -ex. Hemsky signed for 2 years @ 7.8% (which based on this year’s cap is roughly $5million)
    -Player’s salary is set every year based on the cap number
    -Takes the risk (both for team, if cap drops, or the player, if cap rises) away on long term deals
    -Cap floor set as percentages not $s (ex. floor of 85%, ceiling @ 110%)
    -Players on long term deals have a financial incentive to continue to see the game grow

  26. peeps says:

    I wonder if the OIlers could front-load the hell out of contracts for Eberle and Hall (and maybe RNH down the road) and appeal to the application of compounding interest (* I am not an econ person, so I’d be happy to hear corrections).

    Assuming you can invest your money now (or defer loans by having money now), money is worth more now than later. So if we sign Hall and Eberle to a 10 year contract with a $6 million cap hit (just as an example), and don’t mess with the numbers, their pay goes like follows:

    Year 1 – $6 million
    Year 2 – $6 million

    Year 10 – $6 million

    Total Amount Paid: $60 million over 10 years – Cap HIt of $6 million

    Now, if you assume you can make 4% by investing some of this money each year (number picked out of the air), you get the following values (corrected to the total worth, at the time of the final year of the contract):

    Year 1 – $8.54 million (i.e., 6 million, compounding at 4% for 9 years)
    Year 2 – $8.21 million (i.e., 6 million, compounding at 4% for 8 years)
    Year 3 – $7.90

    Year 10 – $6 million

    Total projected worth at Year 10: $72.04 million

    Now, could we convince Hall and Eberle to sign front-loaded contracts such that the projected $72.04 stays the same, but we’re able to reduce their cap hit? For example:

    (Year / Actual Money Paid / Corrected Value at end of contract)
    Year 1: $12 million / $17.08 million (i.e., 12 million compounding at 4% for 9 years)
    Year 2: $11 million / $15.05 million (i.e., 11 million compounding at 4% for 8 years)
    Year 3 : $10 / $13.16
    Year 4: $6 / $7.59
    Year 5: $5 / $6.08
    Year 6: $3.5 / $4.09
    Year 7: $3 / $3.37
    Year 8: $2.5 / $2.70
    Year 9: $1.5 / $1.56
    Year 10: $1.5 / $1.5

    Under this arrangement, the final projected value at year 10 worth is $72.20 million (in the same ballpark as the other contract), but the cap hit is now ($56.00 million, over 10 years –> $5.6)

    If we convince Hall, Eberle, and RNH to do this kind of front loading (if only for shorter contracts), they end up with the same worth at the end of the contract, but we can maybe save enough money for a good Stanley Cup rental each year. Could this work?

    ** I realize that banking on 4% constant interest is arbitrary… can some investor types suggest a more realistic number? My former financial advisor always said 5%, but I think he was a bit of a crook.

  27. bookje says:

    Peeps – you make a good point about how frontloading benefits the player, while having no impact on the team’s salary cap. Any astute player should be willing to take a little less overall for a front loaded contract over a long period.

    One way to look at it is that $1 in 2012 is worth more than $1 in 2020.

    However, there are also insurance considerations that might come into play in this model. Imagine if the player had a career ending injury in year 4 of your deal.

  28. PunjabiOil says:

    I would aim for 6-7 years. Not at all concerned about motivation for Hall and Eberle – these guys are full of character. On that end, I wouldn’t rule out a 10 year deal either.

    At the same time, you don’t offer them 7M or a Rick Nash esque contract either. The precedent has been set for top players taking less to stay (Getzlaf, Perry) (Kane, Toews) (Tavares) (H Sedin, D Sedin) – and all of them, Tavares aside, had history of strong results before signing the long-term pacts.

    Personally, I would wait til at least January or so before talking extension. You want to see some evidence of replication.

  29. Bos8 says:

    Braden28: I know Tambi is still in the process of stock pilling draft picks for Stu, but everytime i see a trade of a pick for a useful player, i wonder when it is our turn to start doing that too. I hope he was in talks for Bishop (2nd), Grossman (2nd and 3rd) and Quincey (1rst), but something tells me he wasn’t and won’t be for a couple years.

    Yep, in the general Huzzah mode, that non attention to detail really sucks. All the back slapping on one protracted, smart move that basically went deadline, does not negate the fact that it’s still Mr Dolittle, Dithers running the asylum. “Quick, sign Sutton before he gets away”. “Lander is really learning the NHL, playing the fourth line”

    I can’t wait till the clusterf.. when the kid D hit the pro ranks. Three next year and two more the year after

  30. fuzzy muppet says:

    This team is going nowhere until they bring in an actual nhl netminder. DD has shown me that hisnt a starter. Mtoo many weak goals. Id like to see them bring in bernier and move out NK.

    I would think that there may actually be Interest in khabibulin.

    SJ, toronto and chicago have all had horrific netminding of late. I would hope tambo is cold calling them talking up his stanley cup winning goaltender

  31. stevezie says:

    Traktor,

    I strongly disagree that the team should be in any hurry to hand Hall the captaincy. Looking at recent young players who were given the C, I can name Crosby, Toews, Richards, Lecavalier, Ovechkin, Marleau, and Thornton (Bruins). We can call Crosby and Toews successes; Richards a partial success; Ovechkin is a debate, and the other three different degrees of disaster.
    Why give him the added pressure? Why take the risk? Some players play better when they’re just hockey players, not captains. I don’t know if Hall is one of these guys, but I don’t see the hurry to find out. The reason most captains are older is that it takes a certain amount of maturity and experience to do the job. Why burden him with that early? He clearly doesn’t need the letter for motivation.

  32. VOR says:

    SK Oiler Fan,

    Goalie 1:

    .910 SV% in AHL. Best Year this year of .928 and 2.26 GA. .896 and 2.83 GA in NHL duty.

    Goalie 2:

    .911 SV% in AHL. Best Year this year of .926 and 1.98 GA. .912 and 2.69 in the NHL

    Why would we trade a 2nd round draft choice for Goalie 1 when we have Goalie 2?

    What I am saying is this is the one and only great season in Bishop’s AHL career. He has never looked good in the NHL, and he is only a hot property in fans minds because they talked about him on TSN and CBC. The thing is as a college goaltender he wasn’t as good as our AHL backup at the same career point. He has been no better at any point than our AHL starter (current NHL backup). Danis has at least shown he can handle NHL play, where Bishop, admittedly in a small sample, has been bad to awful.

    Aren’t good GMs supposed to avoid making decisions based on one year of performance?

  33. spoiler says:

    Woodguy said…

    spoiler,

    Not sure how pull that out. Zona would.

    Here’s where I go to figure stuff out:

    http://redlinestation.blogspot.com/p/using-time-on-ice.html

    I’m not good with the scripts and often just grind stuff out manually if I can’t figure out the script.

    When checking out individual game stuff I usually just hijack a Copper n’ Blue game report and substitute NHL game numbers to get what I’m looking for.

    You may know this, but others might get some benefit.

    Head to head TOI as well as team mates TOI: (example is CAL game)

    This one is sortable by clicking on headers too. Its awesome.

    http://timeonice.com/H2H1112.html?GameNumber=20894&submit=Go

    Fenwick and Corsi from individual game: (example is CAL game)

    http://timeonice.com/shots1112.php?gamenumber=20894

    Vic Ferrari should be praised daily for making these and letting everyone use them.

    Thank you sir if you are reading!!

    Thanks, WG. I am having trouble getting it to work too.

    As best I can tell the URL to return the report for Hall’s Corsi with all teammates is:

    http://timeonice.com/playershots1112.php?team=EDM&first=20001&last=21230&shawn=4

    But I always end up at bluehost’s error placeholder.

    I tried inserting an m like this:

    http://timeonice.com/mplayershots1112.php?team=EDM&first=20001&last=21230&shawn=4

    but it returns the same report as this:

    http://timeonice.com/playershots1112.php?team=EDM&first=20001&last=21230

    so I suspect it isn’t returning a WOWY report but rather a straight Corsi report for each player (which the numbers appear to be, too).

    Vic, if you’re out there, there’s a free case of beer for you in Cochrane if you could give some guidance to this here idiot.

  34. spoiler says:

    My comment is awaiting moderation. Must be too links-ey.

  35. Woodguy says:

    DSF:
    One of the linchpins of the new CBA is likely going to be a maximum contract term.

    Most of the speculation I’ve seen is that contracts will be limited to 5 year terms although I’m sure that will be subject to negotiation and may also be related to the age of the player involved.

    With respect to the amnesty, most speculation is that the players bought out under its terms will be placed on waivers rather than become free agents in a further effort by Bettman to create parity.

    I can see them limiting the number of 35+ years at the end of a contract to eliminate the “tails” that many contracts have to lower the overall cap hit (see Luongo, Hossa, Kovy), but I can’t see them creating an arbitrary contract length limit. PA wouldn’t go for it.

    In regards to the buy out/waiver thing, I don’t understand what you are saying. Once a player is bought out they do not have a contract and are a free agent. No one owns their rights. Someone has to own the rights in order to waive them. So once bought out, they are a free agent. To try to give someone or club rights to the player without a contract is just not possible.

    If you are suggesting that Bettman makes the teams put the players through waivers before they buy-out, that’s different, but still infringes heavily on the owner of that contract, being the club. Plus, these players will undoubtedly be passed over, so it will be all for not.

    Also,

    I think there are two very important contracts coming up before the kids.

    1) 1st rounder this year
    2) Gagner

    It seems to be the default thought to give rookie max to lottery picks, which ends up being a cap hit of $3.75MM, but only $925K of actual salary, the rest are bonuses that now have to be accounted for under the cap (they were not before and if you paid them out and they put you over the cap, you lost that cap space the next year, see CHI the year after they won the cup)

    Loophole Lou did a great job with 4th overall Larsson by getting him to only sign for the salary of $925 and forgo all the bonuses (most are pipe dreams anyhow)

    The difference between $3.75MM and $925K $2.825MM, or over half of one Hemsky. That’s a significant amount of money if you plan on spending to the cap, which the Oilers should now be doing.

    I’d push to only have the Calder bonus for whoever they take with the 1st this year, point to the roster and say “you won’t have a chance to attain the other bonuses given who is ahead of you on the depth chart, please sign for the max $ and Calder bonus and let us spend that cap money on making the team better instead of accruing for awards you won’t win (i.e. Hart, Smythe etc)

    So, what do you give Gagner? This is his last UFA contract. Does he have arbitration rights?

  36. Showerhead says:

    It’s wild how “happiness” is often just a function of expectations vs. results. Manage the expectations and you can manage the spirit.

    Spending time on the internet these days would convince you that it’s a great time to cheer for the 29th place Edmonton Oilers. I’m not arguing against this perception – just point out that it exists.

    For my part, I will be in the 12th row when Edmonton takes on Winnipeg tomorrow night. #83 will be there and #93 has healed just in time to be there too. It seems that I will be getting the best possible version of this year’s Edmonton Oilers and I (very selfishly) take no little joy in that fact.

    And so: I am happy.

  37. stevezie says:

    I don’t think you can guess at Gagner’s contract until the season is over. Does he continue at this point a game tear? Does he go through another ten game drought? The difference is probably worth a million dollars, if not more. Let’s say he does go a point a game for the rest of the year, let’s just say, that puts him at 60 points. Is he going to get paid like a 60 point forward, or like a guy who went a point a game for three months? I guess what I’m trying to say is I have no idea what Gagner gets paid.
    I’m guessing another one year deal for 3.5.

  38. Woodguy says:

    Woodguy,

    Ooops, meant last RFA contract for Gagner. Assuming you don’t go one year because if he doesn’t use his arb rights this year, he’d have them next year and become a defacto UFA and you want to get some term to create value.

    He’s only 22.

    Man, starting kids at 18 who should be in the NHL is really cap buster.

  39. Captain Obvious says:

    Zona had the idea to trade the first round pick this year for Ekman-Larson. This kind of move should be the priority. Other targets are Fowler, Hedman, or Subban. It would take more than just the pick but if they could pull it off and sign one veteran D and the rebuild would be over.

  40. Lowetide says:

    Why would PHX do that, rhough?

  41. Bos8 says:

    I’ve never been a Gagner fan. To my mind he’s always been a coat tail rider. He’s improved this year as in his skating but his other skills are still meh. Give him room and he performs. Take it away and he’s average. So in effect if his wingers get him room he looks good.

    What bothers me most are his defensive miscues. That’s five years in training. You don’t have to hit a man, just get in positon to take away options.

    Can he still develop? Here’s hoping.

  42. commonfan14 says:

    DSF: If I’m not mistaken, teams can’t discuss or sign new contract extensions until after July 1st.

    One would assume the NHL will put a moratorium on all new signings until details of the new CBA are hammered out.

    That’s not how it went before the last lock-out.

    Hasek and many others signed new deals in July ’04.

  43. Captain Obvious says:

    Lowetide,

    Lowetide,

    Phoenix might not but somebody might if the price was high enough depending on their internal direction. Plus the second overall pick has a lot of value.

  44. misfit says:

    The only benefit to long term deals is to include cheap years to bring down the cap hit during the expensive ones.

    Long term front-loaded deals to vetrans in their prime seems to make more sense than back-loaded long term deals to potential stars early in their careers. Contracts like the one given to Rick Nash don’t make any sense to me at all. Signing a 26 year old forward who’s been in the league for 7 years (in other words, what you see is likely what you’re going to get) to a long term, escallating contract is a no-brainer for the player, but I don’t see where it benefits the team.

    Hall/Eberle are probably good bets to be worth some decent coin in 4-5 years, so it’s worth the risk, but I’d still only sign them to a 6+ year contract if you can get their first few seasons at a really good price. I mean, why guarantee them big money 5 years from now if you’re not putting something in it to at least make sure you’re getting a break under the cap at that time?

  45. spoiler says:

    ** I realize that banking on 4% constant interest is arbitrary… can some investor types suggest a more realistic number? My former financial advisor always said 5%, but I think he was a bit of a crook.

    IIRC, the coupon rate on a 10 yr GOC bond is something like 3.25%, although the yield on an already issued is probably trading substantially lower than that. And then of course there’s transaction/management fees too. So yes, relying on a 4% yield would be wrong.

    Tis an evil evil thing they do.

  46. hunter1909 says:

    Bos8: I’ve never been a Gagner fan. To my mind he’s always been a coat tail rider. He’s improved this year as in his skating but his other skills are still meh.

    With respect, “Coat Tail” Sam Gagner leads the NHL in points this month. Eight points in a night, followed by several multiple point games shows this is one “coat tail” rider our golden boys can use in many extended cup runs, which tend to pay off a lot more when the opposition patsies are driven to distraction trying to stop a juggernaut.

    I repeat, these oilers resemble the dynasty when they’re crossing the blue line. By playing like his potential always indicated, Gagner’s just played himself onto the future of the team.

  47. Traktor says:

    Lowetide:
    Why would PHX do that, rhough?

    Exactly.

    I’m sure teams would love to trade 1st rounders for Hall and Eberle as well.

  48. SK Oiler Fan says:

    VOR,

    Well Bishop has played a grand total of 13 NHL games while DD 86 so you can’t compare those numbers and draw any conclusions other than Bishop may have more potential to grow in to.

    You can however compare AHL numbers:
    Bishop: 121 AHL GP – .904 (6ft7: 215lb)
    Dubnyk: 132 AHL GP – .907 (6ft5 210 lb)

    So I can see why you say they are the same goalie.

    I’m not saying get rid of DD, although I’d project him as a 20 GP / season backup at best from what I’ve seen so far. However, wouldn’t you rather have Bishop and DD than NK and DD going in to next year? At least Bishop has a grood chance of staying healthy and improving. NK has neither. A 2nd rounder would have been a small price to pay for a low risk bet

    Brian Elliot was 82GP – .916 in the AHL now he’s sporting a .937 in the show this year. Now of course he is .907 in 172 NHL games for his career and he was crap last year so no one should expect him to maintain that HOF pace. I don’t think St Lou saw that coming this year so the point is you just never know what a goalie might pull off in 1 season.

    I subscribe to the theory of if you know you don’t have an elite goalie try 2 or 3 with potential until one sticks. I think we’ve seen in the past that G is one position where you can have a low risk to reward ratio.

  49. VOR says:

    Fuzzy Muppet,

    I am not aiming this specifically at you but as in my comment about the highly hyped Ben Bishop above, Bernier is another player who hasn’t yet proved he deserves his reputation. Dubnyk in junior on a bad team was .907 SV%, on a good team Bernier was .908%. Then they both go the the AHL. Bernier rips the covers off at .927 SV% and Dubnyk struggles with a .907 SV%. Thing is Bernier was .914 on a team that was .911 overall and then .936 on a team that was .926 overall while Dubnyk was .904 on a team that was .905 overall, .906 on a team that was .901 overall and then .915 on team that was .895 overall. Again it looks like Bernie was benefitting from good teams.

    Then they both come to the NHL and an odd thing happens. Dubnyk is .907 over his NHL career while the Oilers have been .903 overall. Bernier is .909 over his career while the Kings have been .917 overall. The Kings D, I think we can all agree is a bit better than the Oilers and Bernier can only do .909.

    Exactly why miracle is that people expect to happen if we sign Bishop or Bernier? Neither has proven they can play in the NHL any better, if as well as, the inadequate Devan Dubnyk. Neither has ever tended goal for a team like the Oilers. So what outcome is it that all the people who are suddenly talking about these two guys are hoping for?

  50. VOR says:

    Hey Sask Oil,

    Our posts crossed. I would actually prefer Bishop to NK. However, I still think you could trade a lower choice for a goalie with equal odds of paying off. What sort of draft choice do you think it would take to get Jeff Zatkoff for example?

  51. Bos8 says:

    hunter1909: With respect, “Coat Tail” Sam Gagner leads the NHL in points this month. Eight points in a night, followed by several multiple point games shows this is one “coat tail” rider our golden boys can use in many extended cup runs, which tend to pay off a lot more when the opposition patsies are driven to distraction trying to stop a juggernaut.I repeat, these oilers resemble the dynasty when they’re crossing the blue line. By playing like his potential always indicated, Gagner’s just played himself onto the future of the team.

    Also with respect;

    RNH and Gagner duplicate skills and RNH has more of them. I’m enjoying the hell out of the Hall-Hemsky duo. Hall missed the net on at least a couple of point blank shots in the third period – maybe a bad wrist.

    To me the Oilers should be lining up the duckies for the next few years. The question becomes is Gagner one of the horses going forward when it comes to the post season. Points to me are seconday compared to domination on ice. This draft is critical where they get a freebie high draft pick. Hopefully Galchenyuk shows something this spring. The D is coming along nicely. Who knew that the Oilers would need a Smyd clone. Talk about irony.

    I’m from the school that the Oilers have too many small forwards – big center. Hall and Hemsky are the only ones that are in the positive zone.

  52. Lowetide says:

    I don’t think “respect” means what anybody thinks it does.

    And where’s Steve Smith with that damn dream?

  53. godot10 says:

    5-years on the 2nd contracts of Hall and Eberle is far to short. You are buying only 1 UFA year. You make the window far too short. And you make it impossible to attract an elite UFA defenseman in two years because you cannot guarantee that Hall and Eberle will be here long term.

    2 UFA years is too short too.

    You have to buy 3 UFA years, 7-years on the 2nd contracts at a minimum. Longer than 3 UFA probably costs too much. No sane agent is going to advise a young client to sign a 10-year deal unless it is at the cap max.

    With the current cap climate and no rollback, I think the 2nd contracts of Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, and Eberle will be or should be 7-years and coming in at $7 million per season, which are roughly equivalent in terms of cap percentage to Toews and Kanes deals when they were signed, and with 2 more UFA years than Stamkos deal.

    After July 1 next year, the Oilers can actually negotiate with Hall, Eberle, Nugent-Hopkins, and Hemsky simultaneously, since Nugent-Hopkins and Hemsky will only have one year left on their deals. Lock everybody in a room, divide up the pie amongst yourselves.

    ================

    The difference between Ottawa and Edmonton on Bishop is that the Senators don’t have to waive Lehner to sign Bishop. Ditto next season also, I think. The Oilers would have to waive Khabibulin or Dubnyk or run with three goaltenders.

    ================

    Gagner is 2 years away from UFA status, with arbitration rights. So he could opt for arbitration two years in a row to get to UFA status. So the Oilers will have to decide how many UFA years to buy this summer. I think you have to buy 2 UFA years, a 4 year contract. If they draft Grigorenko, then maybe they just go three.

    I think Petry is 3 years away from UFA status. I think you consider buying 3 UFA years now, and do a Gilbert deal….6 years @ $4 million per season. You can a 2-year deal, but the Oilers don’t have cap issues in the next two years, so by doing a longer deal with Petry now, you can suppress his medium term cap number.

  54. Mr DeBakey says:

    “The Oilers would have to waive Khabibulin or Dubnyk or run with three goaltenders.”

    Khabibulin’s Save Percentage in his last 25 games is under .900, it’d be so cool if someone took him.

    Having said that, I have no idea if Bishop is any good, kinda doesn’t look like it.

  55. PDO says:

    I’d be very happy with Eberle and Hall signing a “Tavares” contract. The exact same one is just fine by me.

    Especially because if you get htem both signing that one, there’s a damn good chance you can get RNH on the same deal.

    If they’re all elite players and you’re paying them $5,500,000 a year against the cap for 6 years… that’s a win. I don’t think you need to swing for the fences on deals this big. $33,000,000 that’s fair for both sides and should make the Oiler’s contenders (?!) if the management team surrounds them properly (lol).

  56. DBO says:

    The more I see comparisons I think that our AHL goalie is as good if not better then Bishop. Danis has better numbers, especially at the NHL level. I hope they give him a chance for a few games. Be nice to see Bulin moved, and then you can have a real look at Danis and see if he fits at the NHL level for this team.

  57. godot10 says:

    Bos8: Also with respect;

    RNH and Gagner duplicate skills and RNH has more of them. …….

    I’m from the school that the Oilers have too many small forwards – big center. Hall and Hemsky are the only ones that are in the positive zone.

    RNH and Gagner may have duplicate skills, but like with Gagner, it may be 4 years till RNH can win a face-off. Gagner is now a legit 2nd line centre, and I will concede, not the perfect complementary centre to RNH, but you don’t get rid of Gagner until you have the replacement. You don’t dump him and create a hole in the roster. Horcoff, Belanger, Lander, et al don’t cut it. Gagner is a legit player, and he is the guy the Oilers have and must roll with until the replacement is a bird in the hand, and not one in the bush.

    Nobody in the draft is going to replace Gagner for a couple of years. You can’t run an 18-year and a 19-year old as your top two centres, neither of whom will be able to win a face-off (unless both are exceptional generational talents).

    No roster is perfect. But one should worry about the rosters problems and the rosters holes, and don’t solve a problem by creating another one. Gagner isn’t a problem. The lack of one more legitimate top 4 defenseman is the biggest problem.

  58. Captain Obvious says:

    godot10,

    I think you have the logic of long term deals backwards. The longer the deal the more the deal shifts the risk from the player to the team. In exchange for taking on risk the team should get a larger per year discount for every extra year on the deal. So the UFA years come at a greater price than the RFA years but each additional UFA year has to come at a lower price than the first UFA year. This is axiomatic. The team has to negotiate knowing that they only gain an advantage with a longer deal if they get a discount on the price.

    Which means you have to separate the RFA years from the UFA years. You have to start with the anticipated year to year arbitration price, add those up and then price in a discount for guaranteeing the contract. That’s your base for the RFA years. Then add in the anticipated UFA price over the number of additional years the player is willing to go. The base price will be higher than the RFA price because the player has options here. However, for each additional UFA year you buy you should get a discount. This part is particularly susceptible to negotiation and player preferences. If the player is risk adverse they’ll be willing to go more years for less money. If they aren’t risk adverse they aren’t going to be willing to sacrifice money for more years.

    Which means with regard Eberle and Hall that your 7year/49M contract is completely outrageous, especially with regards to Eberle. Eberle isn’t a $7M a year player right now and even if he were then you aren’t getting any RFA discount. That’s a pretty big overpay.

    Hall is a better player so you can give him more. However, I’m not sure he’s better than Tavares and I’m pretty sure that Eberle isn’t better than Tavares. That’s the contract the Oilers should be emulating: 6 years/33M. Which shows how crazy 7/49 is. It would give them a guaranteed $16M for one season, seven years out ,with zero risk on their part.

  59. peeps says:

    spoiler,

    Thanks for the follow-up. In that case, say we reduce the estimated % from 4% to 3%.

    If you increase the first year payment from 12 million to 12.75 million, problem solved, and the overall cap hit goes up from $5.6 million to $5.68 million… doing this type of deal with 3 players still alleviates nearly 1 million in cap space, which could be used to rent something for a playoff push.

    One follow-up question for everyone… is there a limit on how much you could pay your roster for a given year? If the cap is $66 million, based on average salaries, is there some restriction like “thou shalt not pay your players during any one year more than the cap + x%” ??

    Thanks!

  60. peeps says:

    Captain Obvious,

    One more point… why does everyone say Eberle isn’t as good as Hall? Is this based exclusively on the fact that Eberle is older, or does this have to do with the fact that Hall looks like he’s creating more chances, and in a few years, we’re assuming he’ll be sinking more of them? Surely this isn’t a draft-position issue… right??

    While they look like apples and oranges in terms of style, the awesomeness of these two players look pretty comparable to me, and I think it’s fair to argue right now that either one could end up being the better player.

    If we’re all banking on Hall getting better than Eberle because of age, my concern is that we should also be banking on Hall getting more injured than Eberle based on style.

  61. godot10 says:

    Captain Obvious,

    I, and I think most player agents, would disagree. Each UFA year you are buying in the 2nd contract after the ELC is a year in the prime of the elite players career in their mid to late twenties.

    It is the exact opposite of UFA years when a player is in their thirties, when the player should give a discount for an additional year.

  62. Woodguy says:

    peeps,

    Good stuff on net present value.

    Don’t forget that Alberta is among the lowest tax rates (federal + state/province) on income tax in the NHL. Florida is lowest. New York among the highest. A front loaded contract in a low tax rate area has real value.

  63. cabbiesmacker says:

    Watching the Oilers contract negotiations with “the kids” is likely to be up there in entertainment value with that time the pigs ate Billy.

    Signing ONE hot shot is relatively easy, (Tavares). Anaheim had it a little tougher with Perry, Getzlaf. Even Mary Kate and Ashely’s negotiations would be easier with Vancouver likely as close an environment to Ornskoldsvik, Sweden as one can find in the NHL, signs that the team was poised for greatness, and knowing nothing else really mattered except that the two pieces of paper were identical and stapled together. Oilers have an almost unprecedented task in signing 3. 75 players deeemd “the future.”

    In this case I think paying attention to the contract side of the Blackhawks rebuild is key. Toews, Kane, Seabrook and Keith all peaked close value-wise to one another, Sharp was a key pickup that they knew 3 years after aquiring was going to cost them some future $$. Then they found a way to cram Hossa into the mix although one could certainly argue he might not have been absolutely necessary to the 2010 cup. Perhaps not having Hossa on board would have allowed them to keep Ladd, Byfuglien, and maybe Versteeg and contend for more cups down the road.

    If Hall + Eberle = Toews + Kane, RNH = Keith, and Gagner is our Sharp, we should have enough left over for Seabrooke + Hossa lite contract = stud D + a 4 x 6 goalie.

    Hawks may have blown their 6 key contract cheese to win ONE cup. Oilers can spread it out a little better and be in the thick of things for many years if they play it right.

    Priorities after Hall, Eberle and Gagner should be procuring that young future goalie and nailing down two youngish D studs to balance things out. OR..you make a move with Gagner to aquire one or two of the aforementioned G and D. I prefer this move as I think D and G are a lot harder positions to fill than F.

    Continue to stock pipeline with good draft picks.

    It’s all quite exciting really. ST has 50- 60% of what we’ll need going forward in the palms of his handsand he likely has 2 years to put the rest in place. Oilers should be max cap players for a long time with a new arena coming down the pipe and a success starved fanbase.

  64. Woodguy says:

    spoiler,

    I run into problems in the same spot.

  65. Captain Obvious says:

    godot10,

    First, the point isn’t whether or not they are in their prime, the point is how far away it is. The player is gaining security and in exchange for security they have to give something up. If security didn’t have any value, players would only sign one year deals.

    Second, and this is separate from the original point, it appears to me that scorers peak around 23 or 24 and then settle into a long, often quite slow, decline. Sometimes the decline is abrupt while in others it is graceful, but I think very few players improve their scoring ability after 24. Given this, any contract that assumes consistent or even rising performance out of young players is making a mistake.

  66. Bos8 says:

    godot10: No roster is perfect. But one should worry about the rosters problems and the rosters holes, and don’t solve a problem by creating another one. Gagner isn’t a problem. The lack of one more legitimate top 4 defenseman is the biggest problem.

    My post was more “looking down the road” thing. As far as legitimate top four – I really, really hate to agree with ST but the Oilers need a bridge guy for the D. Smyd’s sudden bout of efficiency was totally out of left field. Very gratifying but unexpected. The situation is much less dire then last fall. I feel they need a quiet professional that would nurture the kids as they come a long. I really liked what I saw of Klefbom, very under control and feel he could be ready in the right circumstances, as early as next year. I don’t like the “call em up when we have injuries” method of developing kids. They wind up on the third pairing and bedlam city ensues. I would prefer something like “We’ll give you thirty games in the AHL, then bring you up and assess”. Can it be done that way, don’t know.

  67. Bos8 says:

    I really hate what they did to Lander and even Petrell. Throw them in at the deep end immediately. That’s patchwork and totally unprofessional. The two could have done half a season at OKC and come up a lot more prepared.

  68. Lowetide says:

    Wordbird: It does’t come up for me. What is it?

  69. wordbird says:

    or, better yet, i could learn how to type:

    http://www.thefourthperiod.com/news/phi120226.html

  70. Downright Fierce says:

    4th Period has Philly in the market for a goalie. Mentions Khabby specifically (among others). JVR rumoured return.

    http://t.co/V5WpLXIl

  71. Gerta Rauss says:

    Khabby for JVR…did Holmgren get hit in the head with a puck at practice this morning..?

  72. Downright Fierce says:

    Kluedeke also just RT’d a guy who has Nash, Mason, plus? for JVR, Bob’sky, Read, picks

  73. Woodguy says:

    Bos8:
    I really hate what they did to Lander and even Petrell.Throw them in at the deep end immediately.That’s patchwork and totally unprofessional.The two could have done half a season at OKC and come up a lot more prepared.

    I agree on Lander, but Petrell is a 27 year old vet from the FIN Elite league. He came over for a shot at the NHL, not the AHL.

    He won’t be around next TC, probably back in FIN.

    Also,

    God bless Ed Snider for not being satisfied with what he ever has and his bad taste in goaltenders.

  74. Woodguy says:

    godot10,

    $4MM x 6 is too much for Petry. He doesn’t even have 100 NHL games yet.

    This is his last year of his ELC, so I think he has 4 RFA years left.

    If you do 6 years now, I doubt you have to go much higher than $3MM.

    I expect them to do 2 years at something like $2.5MM, which is reasonable.

  75. peeps says:

    Woodguy,

    Thanks Woodguy… surely this is something the OIlers could use to try to keep the talented core together?

    Off-topic, but to compare the Oilers to the Chicago model, would Hemsky be our Hossa?

  76. nathan says:

    “One more point… why does everyone say Eberle isn’t as good as Hall?”

    peeps,

    No saying he isn’t as good this year. And as they both increase ice time and uphill starts he may make the case for full par. In the meantime Hall’s younger and already drives the bus so many nights. Love Eberle’s finish and will watch to see him complete his case.

  77. Woodguy says:

    peeps:
    Woodguy,

    Thanks Woodguy… surely this is something the OIlers could use to try to keep the talented core together?

    Off-topic, but to compare the Oilers to the Chicago model, would Hemsky be our Hossa?

    If I were negotiating the Oilers contract I’d be trying to use it for sure.

    Also,

    Nathan is right. Hall plays against tougher comp and wins the shots for/against battle on most nights. The thinking is that over time that translates into winning the goals for/against battle.

    Eberle is very talented and scoring a ton, but gives up a lot going the other way. Its ok, he’s young and very smart, he’ll get it. He plays on average lesser players than Hall (1st pairing D follow Hall around like his shadow) and its losing the shots for/against battle.

    Eberle is shooting out the lights at 19.3% this year. Hall is at a more “normal” 12.4%.

    Hall takes a pile of shots so I expect his long term shooting percentage to be somewhere around 11%, whereas Eberle is more selective, so 13%ish+ might be doable by him. Who knows he might be like Roenick and manage a 15% for his whole career, but its rare.

    Eberle shot a more normal 11.4% last year, Hall shot 11.8%.

    Think of it this way.

    Hall is getting his results this year shooting normal percentages and playing against the Lidstroms and Keiths of the NHL world.

    Eberle is getting his results this year shooting a very high percentage and playing against the Kronwalls and Leddys NHL world.

    Hall doing this at 19 years old is pretty unreal too.

  78. peeps says:

    Nathan: the age thing makes sense.

    Woodguy: I hadn’t clued into how different the quality of competition was between Eberle and Hall… I’ll keep my eyes open for that.

    Thanks.

  79. DSF says:

    Woodguy,

    Woodguy, Behind the Net has Hall at 4th in Qual Comp behind Horcoff, Hemsky and Smyth.

    Eberle is 5th (0.26 vs 0.21…statistically insignificant)

    I would imagine that, now that Hall is playing with Hemsky, he will get tougher matchups but that is a recent development and his production may suffer because of it.

    It’s Gagner who is still getting the sheltering (7th..behind Hopkins)

  80. nathan says:

    DSF,

    Look at zone starts as well. Too early too offer either. Need to see the full year next year with more icetime and more defensive zone starts. Will be especially interested to see them on the road next year. That will predict playoff value more than home games.

  81. DSF says:

    nathan:
    DSF,

    Look at zone starts as well. Too early too offer either. Need to see the full year next year with more icetime and more defensive zone starts. Will be especially interested to see them on the road next year. That will predict playoff value more than home games.

    Exactly so.

  82. Woodguy says:

    DSF:
    Woodguy,

    Woodguy, Behind the Net has Hall at 4th in Qual Comp behind Horcoff, Hemsky and Smyth.

    Eberle is 5th (0.26 vs 0.21…statistically insignificant)

    I would imagine that, now that Hall is playing with Hemsky,he will get tougher matchups but that is a recent development and his production may suffer because of it.

    It’s Gagner who is still getting the sheltering (7th..behind Hopkins)

    I was talking about shot differential in my post, so I used the CorQC stats. Gabe says they are generally more accurate than the scoring QC/QT as you have more data points.

    Hall is 3rd in CorQC, Eberle is 6th.

    They shared a lot of ice time this year, but when they split up the Hall had the 1st pairing D follow him.

    Here’s the Oiler’s CorQC :

    ALESHEMSKY 1.429
    SHAWNHORCOFF 1.308
    TAYLORHALL 1.18
    RYANSMYTH 0.829
    SAMGAGNER 0.697
    JORDANEBERLE 0.395
    RYANJONES 0.19
    MAGNUSPAAJARVI-SVENSSON -0.252
    ERICBELANGER -0.318
    ANTONLANDER -0.433
    BENEAGER -0.467
    RYANNUGENT-HOPKINS -0.698
    LENNARTPETRELL -0.721
    DARCYHORDICHUK -4.237

    I

  83. DSF says:

    Woodguy,

    Sometimes more data points just equal more noise.

    Corsi is like that.

    Hall takes a ton of low percentage shots…Eberle doesn’t.

    I’ll stick with Qual Comp thanks…as fatally flawed as it is. :)

  84. rickithebear says:

    DSF: Hall takes a ton of low percentage shots…Eberle doesn’t.

    Shhhhhhhh! All shots are the same! How dare you challenge the Sacred Cow. They think they have put me in my Corsi place. If fear so I pretend. Uh er! Yes they are the same.

  85. DSF says:

    rickithebear: Shhhhhhhh! All shots are the same! How dare you challenge the Sacred Cow. They think they have put me in my Corsi place. If fear so I pretend. Uh er! Yes they are the same.

    “The most successful tyranny is not the one that uses force to assure uniformity but the one that removes the awareness of other possibilities”

  86. Troll says:

    rickithebear,

    Do you recall during one of the postgames with Kreuger when he mentioned the chances but were way out of whack with the numbers Dennis collects? Do you think that the team has a different metric? Perhaps related to distance?

  87. "Steve Smith" says:

    RNH and Gagner duplicate skills and RNH has more of them.

    God save us from duplicate skills – I’m glad Whitney looks done so that fewer of Gilbert’s are duplicated.

    rickithebear: Shhhhhhhh! All shots are the same! How dare you challenge the Sacred Cow. They think they have put me in my Corsi place. If fear so I pretend. Uh er! Yes they are the same.

    DSF: “The most successful tyranny is not the one that uses force to assure uniformity but the one that removes the awareness of other possibilities”

    A lot of tyrannies also rely on strawmen.

    Lowetide:
    And where’s Steve Smith with that damn dream?

    Since you asked (you stupid bastard):

    Two other guys and I had each individually decided to rob the BMO on 87th Avenue at the same time. Unbeknownst to us, Gordie Howe (and his father, Jackie Howe, also a former NHL star – in my dream, I assessed Gordie as one of the top three players in NHL history, and Jackie as top ten; neither matches my waking assessment, one of them for more obvious reasons than the other) was there doing some kind of publicity appearance – I think maybe it was either BMO’s anniversary or that branch’s.

    Anyway, the long and the short of it is that we decided that we’d better not rob the place, because if we did Gordie Howe would defend it by elbowing us all in the face.*

    So we just hung around and watched reporters ask Gordie questions. One of them was how he felt about his son Mark’s recent induction into the Hockey Hall of Fame; he credited Lowetide’s efforts with making that happen.

    In summary, my subconscious is weird.

    *This aspect of the dream may have been influenced by the fact that earlier that same night I had elbowed my girlfriend in the face while dreaming about playing hockey. Twice. As most of you have no doubt inferred, she is a tolerant woman.

  88. Lowetide says:

    lol. Classic stuff. Dreams are so funny, especially when you lose control of the situation. Your girlfiend is a saint btw.

  89. DSF says:

    "Steve Smith",

    Apparently the citizens of Paajarvistan riot whenever the name Karlsson is whispered breathlessly.

    May hit 80 points faster than Bobby Orr.

    Boston scored 303 goals that season…Ottawa is on pace for 254.

    Blasphemy!

    Straw Man!

  90. PDO says:

    Dreger was just on TSN, has Oil interested in adding a D and “very busy” tomorrow. Floated Blum’s name along with Gagner’s and Paajarvi’s.

  91. "Steve Smith" says:

    DSF,

    Actually, I wasn’t (on this particular occasion) accusing you of strawman tactics, but Rickibear – he was mocking a position that nobody has ever taken (nor has anybody ever taken a reasonable facsimile thereof), and which I think even he realizes that nobody has ever taken.

    Your quote was included to make the link to my remark re: tyranny.

  92. Wolfie says:

    I get the feeling that Gagner is far from being off the market. With Nicklas Backstrom out indefintely and Washington in danger of missing the playoffs I could see them part with one of their young d-men.

    Don’t do it for Blum however.

  93. Schitzo says:

    Wolfie,

    I would bet a LOT of money on Gagner being pretty much untouchable at this point. Ever since the 8 point game he has been at the centre of the season-ticket renewal push. Singled out for a cheer at the meet-and-greet, a focus of in-arena video footage the last couple of weeks, back cover of the renewal package just mailed out.

    That said, if Carlson was in play, it’d be worth thinking long and hard about.

  94. Gerta Rauss says:

    Lowetide: Traktor: Yeah, that’s definitely an opportunity missed for the Oilers. A 2nd rd pick in a subpar draft is a very small price to pay for a reasonable bet. Murray made a nice move there.

    Opportunity missed indeed-the pick traded is in next year’s draft-of which we have 2 second round picks. That’s too bad.

  95. DBO says:

    Gagner keeps coming up. They love Lander, and I wonder if they feel with some seasoning he’ll be as impactful. Horcoff esque. Scared.

    As for MPS I think they’d move him for a top end dman. The whole Green from Washington thing keeps haunting me. They have young goalies, lots of 1sts due to Colorado and need a change in the room.

    May be more interesting then we thought after hemmer signed.

  96. Lowetide says:

    If they’re trading Gagner it better be something good and ready, that’s all I have to say. As for Paajarvi, I think it’s pretty crazy to be sending him away already.

  97. DBO says:

    LT: agreed. But I fear a “power forward ” trend coming and the big top 6 centre you need in the playoffs conversation happening.

  98. bookje says:

    Lowetide:
    If they’re trading Gagner it better be something good and ready, that’s all I have to say. As for Paajarvi, I think it’s pretty crazy to be sending him away already.

    Everything depends on the return. I suspect that Tambellini doesn’t feel a lot of pressure to make any trades – the team does not need to win. He can wait past this trade deadline and deal with problems in the summer if the right deal does not pop up. For all of his faults, I think patience is a strong point here.

  99. cabbiesmacker says:

    Dont see the Oilers being that busy at the deadline but would like to see them adding to the prospects pile, not picks, by possibly moving pieces like Peckham , MPS..gasp, or a freshly signed Sutton.

    Would also like to see this years first rounder in play and hope ST has at least explored some options towards that end.

    Blackhawks are a worthwhile target with some very good kids in the pipeline ie Morin, Pirri, Hayes, etc. Whether or not they could see Teddy as a piece of what they need is the question but they are a hurting unit right now. Peckham for Hayes straight up no problem.

  100. nelson88 says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    Khabby for JVR…did Holmgren get hit in the head with a puck at practice this morning..?

    Agree it would seem very unlikely but the Flyers certainly aren’t shy about “tinkering” with their team so for shits and giggles.

    Khabi and MPS for JVR and the other Russian goalie. Throw in a 2nd or 3rd round pick or two by the Oilers. JVR is certainly more hyped then MPS but maybe with JVR’s concussion issue the bloom has come off the rose. Plus it gives Philly more cap space to play with.

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