Wing And A Prayer

The Edmonton Oilers are about to send away Ales Hemsky without having a clear replacement. We talked about it here and since then not much has changed. The last time the Oilers went into battle, the RW’s looked like this: Jordan Eberle, Ales Hemsky, Ryan Jones, Lennart Petrell. Next season, with Hemsky gone and the club not having an obvious candidate to fill the void, it’s anyone’s guess as to what management is thinking.

Linus Omark is the player I’d think the organization would look to as Hemsky’s replacement. He is an experienced player–not in the NHL, but by age and pro hockey games played. Omark does not appear to be a favorite of the coaching staff, but they might not have a choice. Omark can help offensively, but if he’s facing the tough opposition things could get nasty. I expect he won’t win the day.

Magnus Paajarvi is trying to get his career heading in the right direction, and had a nice game in Detroit playing with Hemmer. That’ll come to a halt soon, and of course there’s no way he’ll be able to face tougher music. The tough minutes RW job may be his down the line, but that day is not today.

Teemu Hartikainen is not having a great season, but I wouldn’t bet against him long term. The question for him will be in regard to footspeed and offense, but there won’t be any problems in the effort department and Finns get special consideration on this blog. Having said that, he’s well down the list of men who’ll get a shot and it might never come.

And the winner is………

Ryan Jones. I don’t think there’s any other choice at this point in time. He trumps the group in experience and did play tougher minutes early in the season when 83 was out and being used in other situations. Based on behind the net stats, this is how things have broken down so far this season.

QUAL COMP

  1. Hemsky .056
  2. Eberle .032
  3. Jones -.030
  4. Paajarvi -.092
  5. Petrell -.206

Omark and Hartikainen both show well in Qual Comp but in fewer than 10 games.

ZONE STARTS

  1. Jones 43.1
  2. Paajarvi 46.2
  3. Hemsky 49.3
  4. Petrell 49.6
  5. Eberle 62.3

CORSI REL

  1. Hemsky 7.3
  2. Paajarvi 4.8
  3. Eberle 3.7
  4. Jones 1.1
  5. Petrell -17.4

Okay, so if I’m reading this right Hemsky was facing the toughest opp with mid-level zone start and had the best CorsiRel. Eberle is facing 2nd toughest comp, breezy zone starts and has a decent (but not Hall magnicifent) CorsiRel. Paajarvi is facing easy opp, slightly difficult qual comp and has a decent CorsiRel. Some nice underlying numbers. Petrell is facing table hockey opposition and the tinmen are killing him. Jones? Hell for zone starts, fairly tough opp and his CorsiRel is below the others but zone start is hell. I think he’s the one, right?

Tell me again why they’re trading Hemsky. Just one more time, and then I’ll understand.

LATE UPDATE: Via Spector through Kypreos and Matheson: the Sutton deal  is done. Will the Oilers add over the summer or do they believe theyre set on defense?

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120 Responses to "Wing And A Prayer"

  1. regwald says:

    The only plan Tambo has is to keep drafting high draft picks. I will be waiting for them to qualify Barker and then trot out the … “his injuries didn’t allow us to evaluate him properly. We expect given a full year he could turn the corner into a steady defenceman.”

    And once they give away Hemsky to a good home they will say, “he wanted too much $$ to stay” and his agent will reply in the media with … “not sure where they heard that, since we were never contacted about an extension”

  2. mattwatt says:

    Think the picture on your last post said it best Lowetide. This is no country for old men.

  3. humantorch says:

    “Tell me again why they’re trading Hemsky. Just one more time, and then I’ll understand.”

    Two reasons: our owner cares more about shiny new arenas than wins, and our GM couldn’t find his own ass with both hands and a map.

  4. Bos8 says:

    My dread is that the Oilers trade Hemsky for a late draft pick and wind up with Yakupov. Hall and the itsy bitsies.

    Jones reminds me of those dumb Irish Setters – trying really, really hard but haven’t got a clue.

    And then there’s Hall – two years later – skating flat out, up the boards, and firing the puck into the goalie’s glove again and again and again.. Someone smoke Buchy with a two by plank.

  5. sliderule says:

    Of all the advanced stats I feel quality comp is the weakest

    If a player has a high quality comp you assume he is playing against strong defensive players.That of course is not necessarily the case as the opponent could be sending out offensive players to take advantage of players like Hemsky and Eberle who are not that strong in their own end.

    If you are playing against shut down defenders with low relative plus minus you end up with a poor quality comp.Doesn’t make sense to me.

  6. rich says:

    I will try to be lucid as to why they are trading Hemsky.

    Would not be surprised if they lowballed Hemsky at the bargaining table and Hemsky told them no. Or it’s possible that Hemsky wants to see what he can get as a free agent and so while he’s said all of the right things in public, he’s decided he needs a fresh start.

    Either way, I’ll be sad to see him go because he can play the toughs when healthy. Very much reminds me of Smyth a few years back.

    If we were to see him go however, a deal that would be high risk, high reward for both teams would be sending him to Nashville for the rights to Radulov. Radulov I don’t think would want to come back and play the defense first style that Trotz would want to employ…but on a team filled w/stud youngsters might be just the ticket to provide the Oilers w/2 quality scoring lines.

  7. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    ~I’m glad that Sutton thing is settled. I was really twisting my panties with worry. Now if only we could sort out the contract situation with Petrell, Hordichuk and Gary I’ll finally be able to relax~

    Oilers Management: rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic

  8. Clay says:

    Re: 2nd line RW next year? Radek Dvorak is a UFA this summer. Problem solved.

    Re: Sutton – I don’t mind this deal, for a few reasons. I think he’s played better than expected, was healthy (when not suspended), has reportedly been “good in the room”, and the reported deal is for a single year, at less than he made this season, although I haven’t been able to find any firm reports on the terms of the deal.

  9. godot10 says:

    We’ll always have Paris (i.e. Spring 2006). Time to start new friendships.

  10. spoiler says:

    BobbyMac has the Sutton deal at 1 X $1.5M (+ $250k games played bonus).

    Wonderful contract. Now let’s see if Tambo can be as astute with respect to Hemsky.

  11. Truth says:

    If the Oilers believe they are “set on defense” after signing Sutton there is a serious issue. Great signing, but they need more d men.

    Hopefully Tambi pulls some magic and gets a real d in return for Hemsky, maybe an upcoming RFA a team can’t afford?

  12. Woodguy says:

    If nothing else changes in who the Oilers have under contract in terms of forwards, I think the lines next year start like this:

    4-89-23 – Opposing coaches put out 1st pair D against this line

    91-93-14 – Massive Ozone starts, hide them from actual NHLers as much as possible

    94-10-28 – Sent out to do the heavy lifting

    55-57-56 A 4th line on a team in the NHL (The flying 5′s?)

    I really think that Renney doesn’t put 14 and 4 on the same line. That makes this team too much of a one line team, which is ridiculously easy to shut down. Even more so when everyone on the line doesn’t have to shave every day.

    The QC rating works two ways. Who the coach puts you out against, and who the opposing coach puts out against you.

    You’re right that 28 will probably end up with hardest QC.

    I’d bet $5 that 56 might take his job by game 60.

    I think the shine is off 28 in terms of what he actually brings in terms of being able to play the toughs. He cheats for offense and has only a nodding acquaintance with what his job is in his own zone.

    Renney put Petrell up on the checking line for one game to send 28 a message.

    When 37 takes your job, even for one game, you know its not because of the lack of offense.

  13. Woodguy says:

    Truth:
    If the Oilers believe they are “set on defense” after signing Sutton there is a serious issue.Great signing, but they need more d men.

    Hopefully Tambi pulls some magic and gets a real d in return, maybe an upcoming RFA a team can’t afford?

    Given all the smoke around “The Oilers are trying to trade for a top 4 Dman”, I don’t think they are done.

    Who they will add will have a HUGE impact on this team.

    To use two ends of the spectrum (and not suggesting Oilers have a chance at Suter) here is how one player can affect the D line up.

    Both rosters the same, except one player is different on each set up.

    1)
    5-77
    6-58
    13-44

    2)
    Suter-77
    5-58
    6-44
    25

    Line up 1 gets its head kicked in early and often.

    Line up 2 can make the playoffs if they didn’t get rid of everyone good over 21 up front.

    Whoever the Oilers add to the Dcorps will set the tone for how serious they are at competing next year.

    If the scale is Barker (terrible) ——————-Suter (probable HOF candidate), I’m betting the Oilers pick up someone near the middle, but closer to the left than right.

    That is what I except from this management team.

  14. wuthering says:

    Tychkowski with some nice words about 83 in yesterday’s SUN:

    “A good soldier and consistent producer during his time here, Ales Hemsky appears to be nearing the end of days. At least in Edmonton. He doesn’t need to be jettisoned for the sake of freeing up space, but the fact he’s an unrestricted free agent means either a long-term commitment or the risk of losing him for nothing in the summer — and neither option seems palatable to management.

    Trading him, however, is a lose-lose proposition. Whoever they get won’t be a top-six forward anytime soon (if ever) and there isn’t anyone in the organization ready to step into that spot next year, either.

    He’s an exciting player who plays fearlessly, and hurt, and has led Edmonton in scoring five of the last six years (missing by a point last season). Despite playing on a loser and surrounded for most of his stay here by mediocre talent, he never complained once.

    It seems an ignominious end for a good Oiler. His last 27 games, in Edmonton and wherever he ends up, are worth following.”

  15. FastOil says:

    Why does trading your best forwards away have to be a firesale? Is that how good teams trade good players? Wait until they are underperforming, sabotage their character, work to eliminate any leverage in your negotiating position.

    It seems like the braintrust feels the deadline is the only time to move quality. Please correct me if I am not seeing this right, but isn’t the offseason a better time to trade younger talent? Assuming the GM hasn’t been dense enough to let his best UFA forward play out his last contract year.

  16. Captain Obvious says:

    Guessing what the Oilers will do is pointless. We all know it will be too little and not enough. It will count on an unrealistic assessment of how good the young guys are and will involve a miraculous turnaround for Whitney.

    More interesting is what I would do if I was GM.

    I would trade a first round pick (top 10 protected) + whatever filler was necessary for Andrej Sekera.
    I would sign Mike Lundin.

    This would give me a defense corps of (mix and match how you like):

    Gilbert
    Smid
    Sekera
    Petry
    Sutton
    Lundin

    With Whitney and Potter in reserve. Peckham can go to the farm or to Mars. It makes no difference.

    For the forwards I sign Dustin Penner and Ryan Shannon as free agents.

    This gives me a forward lineup (again mix and match as you like)

    Hall–Gagner–Omark
    Penner–Hopkins–Eberle
    Smith–Horcoff–Paajarvi
    Shannon–Belanger–Jones

    With Eager getting regular time rotating in. I send Lander to the minors to see if he can score and I have him and Hartikainen in the minors when I need someone. I also send my first round pick back to junior unless it is Grigorenko or Yakupov.

    Three free agents signings, one trade, that’s it. None of the moves are unrealistic, and this team would be competitive for a playoff spot.

  17. LMHF#1 says:

    Since Sather left the Oilers management has seemingly had a really lazy and/or standoffish approach to communicating with players. I don’t understand it at all as there could be no possible positive from this approach.

    Sliderule – “Hemsky and Eberle who are not that strong in their own end” Are you freaking kidding me?

  18. spoiler says:

    Tambellini would be remiss in his duties as a GM if he didn’t find out what sort of market there was for Hemsky and whether that market offered more value than what Hemsky presently brings to the team. It would be foolish to sign Hemsky before testing the market. So far Tambo is doing this right, despite the panic the past month has seen on this Blog.

    But what will the market offer?

    On our side of the balance sheet is a fleet 28yo winger that scores points at about a 0.9 clip while playing against middling to tough opp. His skills are plus skating, passing and vision. Creates a lot of room for other players. Can run a PP. Plays a position where the Oil lack depth. Some question his decision-making in game and work ethic outside of the game. Has had extensive injury issues.

    Obviously any trade or non-trade will be a bet for or against Hemsky’s future health. Other than those injury issues, the summary above describes a helluva player.

    Due diligence says Tambo needs to see if a GM likes and needs the player and is willing to take the health risk. And he needs to find out the max that GM is willing to pay. If that payment is not enough then no deal. If we are well-paid then a deal. This is the business that Tambo is in and lamenting about him doing his job gets us nowhere.

    We should wait to see if there is even a deal, and if so, then look at the return before criticizing management on this issue. It’s kind of pointless to be talking about Hemsky’s lack of replacement till then, isn’t it?

  19. "Steve Smith" says:

    Captain Obvious,

    What do you do about goaltending? Hope Dubnyk’s up to it, or be ready for a 2006-style deadline move?

    LMHF#1,

    He’s a skilled European – how could he possibly be strong in his own end?

  20. spoiler says:

    I think Tychkowski’s assessment quoted above, is pretty dead on. If Tambo is a motivated seller, it has to be because he’s scared of term.

    Why would he enter a Lose-Lose transaction though? There must’ve been more contract talking that what has been reported–maybe not an offer, but some idea of the terms Hemsky wants.

  21. spoiler says:

    Captain Obvious

    How do you trade your 1st round pick AND draft a player with it?

  22. rickithebear says:

    Lt: Paint it Correctly.
    Last year Eberle faced lower 1st Comp, team 2nd best Corsi, toughest zone start for top 9 lwd.
    Last year hemsky Faced mi 2nd line Comp, 6th best Corsi REL, with easiest zone start for top

    This year
    Hemsky faced lower 1st comp, team 2nd best Corsi rel, 5th toughest Zone start for top 9.
    Eberle Faced upper 2nd Comp, 5th best Corsi for top ( and the Sedin treatment for zone start.
    We can see a clear
    XXX-RNH-Eberle (sedin treatment) throw a LW on the cheap who could be a 20G player
    Hall-Gagner-XXX (seconds)
    MP-Horcoff-XXX (toughs)
    XXX-Belanger-Jones

    It is down to, do we we spend a 2nd 5M contract on a potential 16G 55P forward like Horcoff.
    Cause that is what Hemsky has delivered for his Career.
    Or is he the 11G 37P forward 6 of 9 years.
    No wait he is the 21G 71P 3of 4 years, 4 years ago.

    Complain about a Dman who is a quality 3rd PR D cause that will not get us there.
    Yet a guy who generates 160th ranked fwd numbers 6 of 9 years is dooming the fwds if we do not sign him.

    Yes i advocate a largely 28-32Yr old bae for the team. But be damned if we should pay 200% for true production history.

  23. "Steve Smith" says:

    spoiler,

    I interpreted the Captain as saying that the first rounder being traded was for 2013 or later, since it was top ten protected (and that obviously wouldn’t work this year).

  24. nathan says:

    “Tell me again why they’re trading Hemsky. Just one more time, and then I’ll understand”

    1. There is a cap and a UFA market. Value depends as much on cost and risk tolerance as the quality of the player.
    2. There are teams who do not have to sign Hall, Eberle, RNH to 2nd contracts in the next 3-5 years, who may be less risk averse than the Oilers and willing to go longer term than the Oilers.
    3. Teams need experience on the roster to win but they do not generally want most of their cap risk from that group of players.
    4. Hemsky’s camp believing longer term offers will be out there may have no interest in sharing the injury risk with the Oilers by signing short term.
    5. Beyond the posturing and the fact that there is no offer we do not know the private discussion between agent and GM. It may be as simple as both parties requiring movement on contract length in order to have common ground to negotiate something.

    If there is a contract with the Oilers my guess would be 3 years and a small discount to get that 3rd year. But I think both parties are too risk averse.

  25. Jordan says:

    Listening to the Team 1260 this morning, Nashville appears to be the big player for Hemsky.

    My reading of this: either there are not a lot of takers actually interested in him right now, or there are not a lot of teams willing to pay what the Oilers are asking for Hemsky.

    Despite what Stauffer, Spector, and Matheson have been spouting since Hemsky spurned them, I can’t help but wonder – if the team can’t get enough for him to make it worth trading him, will they keep him? Would that be enough to consider re-signing him?

    Until word came out yesterday that Sutton was being extended, I don’t think that anyone expected that to happen (ie no leaks).

    I wonder if Tambellini is actually able to keep what he is doing quiet enough that no one in the Media really knows what the Oilers will do… It’s sure a nice narrative that creates the possibility that 83 might not be kicked out the door.

    There have already been comparisons made to Smyth’s exit from Edmonton re: money he wanted from the Oilers vs. UFA Deal. I’m just surprised there hasn’t been as much talk about how much the franchise wandered without Smyth to lead the team, and how that could happen again without Hemsky.

  26. spoiler says:

    Thanks, “Steve”. I’m in bed with some bug and probably shouldn’t be allowed near words.

  27. knighttown says:

    Sorry LT about the selfish request. I’ve noticed a few of the commenters (Danny, Ribs) are rather IT saavy. Just a hobbyish request but I host a guys golf trip for the past dozen years. Probably 20-30 guys over the years have attended and we hit different spots (Tucson, alabama, Myrtle beach). I think it might be time to take the email chatter into a blog or website but I’ve got no clue how to start. Wondering if someone might point me in the right direction; “read this” or “go to this website”.

    My needs would be the ability to post text obviously but also lots of pictures and maybe some video. Also would have a stats area do uploading from Excel
    Or some other format I’m used to. Would likely be links to various different courses too.

    Don’t really care about privacy. So yeah, if anyone wants to share a tip or two send to Andrew at abuffett@ampltd.ca

  28. spoiler says:

    I’d like to believe too that Tambo would be unwilling to pull the trigger if the value isn’t there. But I doubt it. Because if the Oil know that they can’t sign Hemsky without offering term than they will make the trade based on anything is better than nothing, and he will go to the highest bid (which, given the health risks, might not be all that much).

  29. bookje says:

    I like Hemsky a lot, but I have two big problems with the ‘Sign Him’ crowd. We don’t know the price so how can we say ‘Sign Him’ .

    What if Hemsky won’t go below a 4 year term?

    What if he wants $5.5 a season for those 4 years?

    What if someone is offering a good defensive prospect or a 1st round pick for a Hemsky Rental?

  30. Jordan says:

    There was and remains a fair bit of chatter about Jonathan Blum as the trade target out of Nashville.

    If there were a year to target him, this would seem to be a good one.

    His EV ON ICE Sv% has been a team worst .888 this season against low-middling competition. Without any scoring chance data for the team, it looks like he’s getting beaten with the unlucky stick. EV ON ICE S% is down this year from over 13% to 10%, so that looks like it might be consistently high.

    I’m not sure he’s the best target, but he’d be nice to bring back, and if nothing else, he’d be of value when we go shopping for other parts – something an unsigned hemsky does not provide.

    It’s too bad it looks like Sutter is going for a payday – a signed hemsky+ for a signed Sutter would be a hell of a trade for the Oilers.

  31. Traktor says:

    When was the last time Edmonton had a UFA that had recent shoulder injuries? I forget how that worked out for us.

    Eager 6 goals
    Hemsky 4 goals

    Clearly Hemsky’s shoulder is fine.

  32. LMHF#1 says:

    Mike Comrie retired today. Damn. One of my favorites and really hoped he’d find his way back to the Oilers again. Really was and could’ve been a special player. Between him and his brother…just crummy on the health front.

  33. Jordan says:

    bookje,

    The biggest uncertainty with signing Hemsky is Health. If he played 82 games a season for the past 4 years, and produced at a ppg clip like he had, there wouldn’t be an issue with term or money.

    It all comes back to his health.

    If the guy plays every game for the rest of the season, doesn’t get hurt, and keeps improving his play as he gets back into it, then I have no problem paying him that money. None.

    But because of the health questions, and the fears about his play this year (production dip) I don’t think anyone who isn’t a gambler can make that deal and feel confident it will work out. The first person I’m talking to if I want to sign him is the doctors – is he healthy, and will he stay healthy?

  34. DSF says:

    NHL_Oilers Edmonton Oilers

    #Oilers back in town skating at Millennium Place in Sherwood Park this morning; Nugent-Hopkins not practicing with the team
    8 minutes ago

  35. Captain Obvious says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    I try and trade Khabibulin for anything this month. If somehow this is successful then I go bargain shopping next year. I pick up a cheap contract NHL goalie with a decent track record or an AHL vet with solid numbers then let them battle it out. Scott Clemensen is an UFA, someone like that. Josh Harding is better but I think someone is going to pay him. It wouldn’t be me. I’d also be fine getting my scouts and goalie coach to look at the top AHL goalies and pick one.

    But I don’t think Khabibulin is tradeable so I think we’re stuck with this tandem.

  36. Gerta Rauss says:

    knighttown,

    First step is to decide on a domain name and register it with a registrar-I use baremetal.com but any site like go daddy can register/search a domain name-names are cheap-about $10 a year…after that you have to decide on a host.

    go daddy is one stop shopping..name and hosting and they have good support for building your site…it doesn’t sound like you’ll need anything too feature rich so a 1 stop shop would probably suffice.
    If building your site is above your skill set then you need to find somebody like danny to do it for you,

    There are also companies out there that will do ALL of the above,but they usually register the domain name themselves…and if you decide later to change hosts you have to pry the domain name from them.

    good luck

  37. Ducey says:

    spoiler: BobbyMac has the Sutton deal at 1 X $1.5M (+ $250k games played bonus).Wonderful contract. Now let’s see if Tambo can be as astute with respect to Hemsky.

    Agreed. Thats a nice contract.

    Staples is saying that Matheson is saying the Oilers might now be willing to go two years with Hemsky.

  38. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    rickithebear,

    I don’t get your numbers. You’ve posted them before. But my bemusement continues. Why do you include this year as if it is a completed year of stats? Why do you include his partial rookie year? Why are you obstinately focused on point totals to the exclusion of PPG?

    I get that Hemsky enthusiasts (full disclosure… that’s me) probably overstate the value of PPG re: Hemsky and understate his point totals vis-a-vis his last two years. But it seems to me that most people when using PPG acknowledge his injury troubles, so I’m wondering why you can’t bring yourself to acknowledge his production (when healthy, i.e., his PPG)?

    I just seems to end up in a quagmire of:

    “Hemsky doesn’t produce”
    “he produces when healthy”
    “But, he’s never healthy, so he never produces”
    “but, when he’s healthy…”

  39. copperblueandwhite says:

    Who among us would have a problem with Ales Hemsky for 3 yr for $13.5m-$14m?…get it done Tambo and then fix the real problem the AHL quality defense corps….what a bunch of unnecessary drama.

  40. bookje says:

    I dunno, I would’t sign Hemsky after he hurt his pubis thingy making pancakes with Tommy Salo’s news reporter.

  41. Ducey says:

    I would trade a first round pick (top 10 protected) + whatever filler was necessary for Andrej Sekera.
    I would sign Mike Lundin.

    In the real world, GM’s don’t trade good young defencemen signed to value contracts for mid round first round picks and “filler”.

  42. nathan says:

    “Despite what Stauffer, Spector, and Matheson have been spouting since Hemsky spurned them”

    Stauffer always gets the piling on penalties, but I think Matheson puts a fair value on Hemsky:

    “Eberle may also develop a sounder two-way game in the next few years and be able to succeed against the toughest competition at even strength, though that is more of a stretch”

    “one or two years, three at most, for an inflated amount… one year at $6.5-to-7.0 million or two years at $5.5 million, something like that, might be enticing enough for Hemsky to grab, while protecting the Oilers from a long-term hit… If Hemsky wants longer term, a deal in the $4.0-to-5.0 million per year range might make sense, but only contingent on Katz’s willingness to eat salary”

    Katz’s finances are completely private so I wound not assume much about willingness to bury or waive to split cap hit.

    Max team offer is likely 3×5. Stauffer of course would do a 180 if that ever got signed.

  43. rickithebear says:

    For the last month I have watched the forwards and hall on the lw with eberle is a beauty to watch. But i like him with Gagner: He is a Lw with speed, who is physical enough to drive the net and great puck retrieval that would work well with RNH-Eberle. hall just fits.

    But i keep watching a Fwd who seems to generate goals, has good offensive puck retrieval and drives the net. would love to see him get a chance with those two young mens left side.
    Oiler FWD EVG/60 league rank
    Eberle 1.45 #8
    RNH 1.12 #31
    Eager 1.06 #44
    Smyth .92 #77
    Hall .76 #128
    Gagner .74 #133

    Must be a fluke year ? wrong!
    Eager:
    11-12 EDM 1.06 EVG/60 1.42 EVP/60
    10-11 SJS .59 EVG/60 1.36 EVP/60
    09-10 CHI .85 EVG/60 1.94 EVP/60
    08-09 CHI 1.05 EVG/60 1.43 EVP/60
    His career EVG/60 would be top 90 for the league.

    If he gets 13Min of Soft with the two young men that is 17G 28P with no PP time Career average. Thou RNH and Eberle setting up him rather than Belanger, Pettrell, Lander, Jones may increase his production.

    Would love to see 10GM

  44. nathan says:

    “Who among us would have a problem with Ales Hemsky for 3 yr for $13.5m-$14m”

    That’s dead in the middle of Matheson’s 3 years for 12m-15m. I expect that Kat-low-bellini would sign that deal too, I also suspect Hemsky and agent would hold out for more and get it somewhere else but not here.

  45. OilClog says:

    This whole Hemsky scenario, is garbage. The management team couldn’t handle this any worse then they have, wait.. I might of spoken too soon. I’m sure this can get even worse, which will be proven over the next couple weeks.

    Sign him for 4-5 years who freaking cares, as long as its not gomez money the contract will be tradeable down the road if it gets to that. As a fan I’m pissed off, for Hemsky I’m pissed off, for the Oilers I’m pissed off, and the management I’m pissed at.

  46. russ99 says:

    Oilclog:

    Speaking of worse:

    Can’t wait for the trade deadline episode of Oil Change showing Dithers hemming and hawing on Hemmer…

    Omark’s looking good in OKC so far. 2 games: 2 goals and 1 assist. Give him another week or two to recover fully from the broken ankle, and he’s good to go.

  47. Woodguy says:

    Ducey: Agreed.Thats a nice contract.

    Staples is saying that Matheson is saying the Oilers might now be willing to go two years with Hemsky.

    Paying more than $750K for your 7th Dman is an overpay.

  48. stevezie says:

    bookje,

    I agree. I am also a Hemsky enthusiast and I will fully admit that there are scenarios in which trading him is the smart move, basically they are A) We get a great offer, 2) He wants too much money/term and won’t budge, and finally he might just want out, period. If any of these things are the case, we follow the one absolute law of the universe: you gotta do what you gotta do.

    What’s frustrating for me is we have no idea, and from all appearances neither does Hemsky. I know it’s not management’s job to set the story straight. If they are holed up somewhere with a master plan and are patiently enduring the slings and arrows of an impatient fan base with nary word of self-defence than I admire them, but why o why would anyone think that’s the case? What has management done in the last five years that gives cause for faith? When Lou Lamourello plays it close to the vest we assume he’s got something cooking; a team on pace for a fifth straight bottom ten finish inspires people to fear the worst. Absolutely no one is getting ahead of this story, so all we’ve got are the words of media members close to the team: Hemsky’s “body-language” has convinced them they’re better off with no one than a former all-star still in his prime.

    LT, I’m not made about the Sutton deal for the same reason I was so pissed when they threw Glencross (and to a much lesser extent, Sykora) away: It is possible to do two, even three things at once. If you think it isn’t, you’re not up to the task or the salary of managing a major corporation.

  49. DSF says:

    Surprised no one has mentioned a front loaded deal in the 4 year range.

    $6M-$5M-$3M-$2M (Avg. cap hit – $4M)

    Provides Hemsky with some injury insurance early and provides the Oilers with an easy buyout after year two if things go south.

  50. russ99 says:

    stevezie,

    Do you want the “real explanation” of treading water and acquiring picks until Katz can make all the playoff revenue in the new building, or the silence we’re getting now?

  51. stevezie says:

    OilClog,

    Exactly! Well, sort of, I think you overstate the matter, but people act like signing him now means we can never trade him again. FFS, Gomez got traded. The return will match his performance, but there will always be desperate GMs willing to gamble on high-end talent, especially if the contract is structured along the lines DSF mentions.

  52. Woodguy says:

    To everyone saying the Oilers can’t sign Hemsky to 4 years because he might not work out and hurt the cap.

    This management paid Sheldon Soury $4.5MM to play in the AHL.

    The same management team is paying Souray $2.4MM for a contract buy out this year and Nilsson $418K for his buyout.

    So that’s $7.3MM they have paid in real money for players not to play for the Edmonton Oilers.

    Surely if the gamble on Hemsky doesn’t work out they can pay him to not play for the Oilers as well.

  53. Woodguy says:

    DSF:
    Surprised no one has mentioned a front loaded deal in the 4 year range.

    $6M-$5M-$3M-$2M (Avg. cap hit – $4M)

    Provides Hemsky with some injury insurance early and provides the Oilers with an easy buyout after year two if things go south.

    If you were Hemsky, would accept declining money in your 30th and 31st year old years?

    Declining contracts generally start declining later than that.

  54. russ99 says:

    Woodguy,

    NICE.

    The Hemsky issue is an interesting one, since the management team is going to have to make a difficult decision one way or another. Should be very telling.

  55. Jordan says:

    Captain Obvious,

    Ben Bishop is trapped behind Halak and nhlallstarbrianelliot in St. Louis. He’s my target to tandem with Dubnyk.

    bookje: I dunno, I would’t sign Hemsky after he hurt his pubis thingy making pancakes with Tommy Salo’s news reporter.

    Bookje Wins.

    Was this before he taught theformercaptainethanmoreau how to take offensive zone hooking penalties and helped MacT lose the room?

  56. HeavySig says:

    The Sutton signing could be a tell on a shift in management philosophy. Sutton would have garnered a medium sized bag of magic draft beans or prospects, but instead of going to market with him as per the last several years, they signed him up for another year. Sutton being a bottom pairing type is significant as well. Does this mean the Oil brain trust has recognized that they need a lot of NHL defensemen to make it through an NHL season?

    If the Oilers are starting to recognize that they can’t win with rookies, prospects and rehab vets alone, maybe they are going to take a stab at signing Hemsky. He may not be perfect, but he is a real NHL player. Unless there is a killer trade deal on the table, shouldn’t they at minimum offer Hemsky a reasonable contract to see where he stands? If Hemsky is leaving anyway, the debating whether to trade becomes irrelevant, and should evolve to the quality of the return.

  57. wuthering says:

    stevezie: I agree. I am also a Hemsky enthusiast and I will fully admit that there are scenarios in which trading him is the smart move, basically they are A) We get a great offer, 2) He wants too much money/term and won’t budge, and finally he might just want out, period. If any of these things are the case, we follow the one absolute law of the universe: you gotta do what you gotta do.

    Wait a second, I want a C or a 3.

  58. DSF says:

    Woodguy: If you were Hemsky, would accept declining money in your 30th and 31st year old years?

    Declining contracts generally start declining later than that.

    I guess that depends on the alternatives.

    Hemsky gets a boatload of cash in the first two years to compensate.

    They might have to increase year 1 to make it work but it sure works with the time frame of the kids new contracts.

  59. Captain Obvious says:

    Ducey,

    Sure they do. In any event, the point isn’t that I trade for Sekera but rather that I trade for someone like Sekera and I’m willing to trade a future first round pick to do so. If the Sabres don’t bite, I go after Coburn or Vlasic. The point is that every summer there are teams near the cap who are willing to trade good players. I would identify a list of players I like and then I would call until I found a match.

    If the team wants a roster player back, I’ll give them Ryan Jones. If they like Eric Belanger, they can have him. If the want a young player, Pitlick and Hamilton are available. The point is that good, but not star, defensemen are available through trade in the summer and I would trade whatever the price was for that defenseman.

  60. art vandelay says:

    Sutton is the guy you sign out of desperation in September b/c 2 of your regulars got hurt blocking shots in pre-season. If you actually plan to have Sutton in your lineup more than a week in advance, good luck. But if it was a sign-and-trade, that’s a different story.

  61. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy:
    To everyone saying the Oilers can’t sign Hemsky to 4 years because he might not work out and hurt the cap.

    This management paid Sheldon Soury $4.5MM to play in the AHL.

    The same management team is paying Souray $2.4MM for a contract buy out this year and Nilsson $418K for his buyout.

    So that’s $7.3MM they have paid in real money for players not to play for the Edmonton Oilers.

    Surely if the gamble on Hemsky doesn’t work out they can pay him to not play for the Oilers as well.

    Maybe Katz has/will put his foot down and insist that’s the end of that and refuses to walk into situations where he might need to throw money away. Of course, that will be the case with every signing ever… so… who knows.

  62. Woodguy says:

    bookje:
    I like Hemsky a lot, but I have two big problems with the ‘Sign Him’ crowd.We don’t know the price so how can we say ‘Sign Him’ .

    What if Hemsky won’t go below a 4 year term?

    What if he wants $5.5 a season for those 4 years?

    What if someone is offering a good defensive prospect or a 1st round pick for a Hemsky Rental?

    Defensive prospects are infinitely easier to find than RW who can play against the toughs.

  63. Woodguy says:

    Captain Obvious:
    Ducey,

    Sure they do.In any event, the point isn’t that I trade for Sekera but rather that I trade for someone like Sekera and I’m willing to trade a future first round pick to do so.If the Sabres don’t bite, I go after Coburn or Vlasic.The point is that every summer there are teams near the cap who are willing to trade good players.I would identify a list of players I like and then I would call until I found a match.

    If the team wants a roster player back, I’ll give them Ryan Jones.If they like Eric Belanger, they can have him.If the want a young player, Pitlick and Hamilton are available.The point is that good, but not star, defensemen are available through trade in the summer and I would trade whatever the price was for that defenseman.

    I like Sekera too and was mentioning him when BUF was tight to the cap at the beginning of the year. They have a billionaire owner, so they just buried some contracts in the minors. Oh to have a billionaire owner!

    I don’t think he’s worth a high first round pick though.

  64. nathan says:

    DSF,

    Because the first 3 years of that is better for both parties:

    $6M-$5M-$3M is a lower cap hit.
    With that in his pockets Hemsky would bet on beating 2M.

    Cap hit risks matter.

  65. OilClog says:

    Yeah I let my emotions get carried away sometimes, sick of hearing we’re the islanders of the west.. cause we’re not! they’re clearly keeping their players lately.

    Omark has some skill no doubt about it, but even still he has a 1/10th of a chance in actually duplicating Hemsky. Especially with Renney behind the bench, he’ll get 8mins a game while Lander is taking offensive draws with 6 mins left down by a goal. Petrell is known for his quick release.. right?

    For this upcoming offseason I expect more 7/8/9 defenceman signed, and lots of questions on how they’re going to replace Hemsky.. which will continue for 2-3 seasons. I wouldn’t be surprized if all three of the young guys make it through their 1st contracts without a sniff of the playoffs.

    Trading Hemsky for anything that isn’t an immediate impact for this team, is poor management.. which is exactly what I expect. If I was going to make a contract offer I’d hope for something like this

    yrs 1-3 5.5mil. yrs 4/5 4mil 6/7 2mil with options out. Like woodguy said, we should have no problems paying him to not play if it comes down to it.

  66. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Maybe Katz has/will put his foot down and insist that’s the end of that and refuses to walk into situations where he might need to throw money away. Of course, that will be the case with every signing ever… so… who knows.

    Its a pretty good bet though.

    Given the way Katz built his fortune I think he’s familiar with making +EV bets.

    His NHL team managers on the other hand…..

  67. bookje says:

    Woodguy: o find than RW who can play against t

    I don’t think ‘infinitely’ means what you think it does!

    Anyway – the point is that you can’t say you would sign someone without knowing what that person will sign for – if its too much, then you are better off trading him than keeping him here for a few months.

  68. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: Its a pretty good bet though.

    Given the way Katz built his fortune I think he’s familiar with making +EV bets.

    His NHL team managers on the other hand…..

    Ahh… but there’s the rub. I think it’s a good bet (miles better than the alternatives)… but I’m guessing the people who bend Katz’ ear don’t. I’m guessing those people have told him that he will have to pay that lazy European with a bad attitude to take up a prospect’s spot in the AHL, ruining said prospect’s development and poisoning the room in the process.

  69. nathan says:

    OilClog,

    The cap hit on that is awful. Both parties would be better off with your first 5 years. Not that the Oilers will go out to 5 x 4.9.

  70. DSF says:

    Woodguy: Defensive prospects are infinitely easier to find than RW who can play against the toughs.

    Are you sure?

    Versteeg
    Fleischmann
    Higgins
    Brouwer
    Lupul
    Ryder
    Staalberg
    Glencross

    All wingers who have changed addresses recently and didn’t require an arm and a leg or long term contracts to acquire.

  71. nathan says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Maybe Katz said he’s willing to do that again but a different GM would get that job,

  72. PDO says:

    Sutton signing is nice in a bubble. He’s worth that.

    The problem?

    If we’re keeping Whitney and we’re keeping Gilbert and Potter and we’re keeping Smid and we’re keeping Sutton and we’re keeping Petry…

    How the hell are we supposed to improve at the position?

    Also, trading Hemsky is stupid.

  73. Jordan says:

    PDO,

    Well, I could be wrong about this, but my bet is that by signing some of these guys earlier, the Oilers not only have additional assets available to send away should a trade pop up (I’m thinking Potter or Petry as the most likely right now, because of the cheap contracts – puck moving 3rd pairing players on cheap deals have value) but they also have a fall-back plan if they go Sutter hunting in the summer anc come up short.

    If they succeed, they have an extra asset that can be sent to the farm or traded.

    No down side to either the Sutton or the Potter signing.

  74. Ribs says:

    knighttown,

    You can get a domain name and hosting and all that if you feel it’s needed, but from the sounds of it you could likely get away with easier and less costly options. You can sign up for a free WordPress.com blog here. You go through the setup process (pick a theme, etc), and you’re off rolling. It has it’s limitations but it’s good to start with and you can move it over to a host if you feel the need to in the future.

    You get 3GB worth of space with the free blog. If you’re needing more space than that this may not be a good option for you (You can purchase space upgrades, though).

    You can plug in your photos and videos easily. You may need to use something like Scribd to embed your Excel files. There is possibly a plugin to use for this too. You can search for plugins and apply them pretty easily.

    Blogger is a similar setup but isn’t as polished as WordPress.

    If you’re just starting out, I’d suggest signing up and playing around with it. It’s free, quick, and you can delete it and try something else without committing to anything if it’s not for you.

  75. Woodguy says:

    DSF: Are you sure?

    Versteeg
    Fleischmann
    Higgins
    Brouwer
    Lupul
    Ryder
    Staalberg
    Glencross

    All wingers who have changed addresses recently and didn’t require an arm and a leg or long term contracts to acquire.

    Most of these players are not tough minute players.

    Fleishman and Lupal had more serious injury concerns than Hemsky.

    None of these players have pts/60 history that Hemsky does. Most aren’t even close.

    You list is like asking who’s a Kessler comp and people saying Gagner.

    Also,

    5v5 pts/60

    Kessler 1.77
    Wellwood 1.95
    Gagner 2.30

    :)

  76. ohhell says:

    PDO:
    Sutton signing is nice in a bubble.He’s worth that.

    The problem?

    If we’re keeping Whitney and we’re keeping Gilbert and Potter and we’re keeping Smid and we’re keeping Sutton and we’re keeping Petry…

    How the hell are we supposed to improve at the position?

    Also, trading Hemsky is stupid.

    The answer is easy. Sign a top two d-man and move everyone down. Better yet, sign a top two and a top four and move people down accordingly. Having Sutton and Potter as your 7/8 is not a bad problem.

    For that matter, dump Hordichuk and throw Sutton to forward on a fourth line configuration as needed. Keep 2 d-men and one forward. Problem solved.

  77. DSF says:

    Woodguy: Most of these players are not tough minute players.

    Fleishman and Lupal had more serious injury concerns than Hemsky.

    None of these players have pts/60 history that Hemsky does.Most aren’t even close.

    You list is like asking who’s a Kessler comp and people saying Gagner.

    Also,

    5v5 pts/60

    Kessler 1.77
    Wellwood 1.95
    Gagner 2.30

    All of those players are tough minute players. Check.

    Unfortunately, P/60 don’t mean much when your best season in the past three years is 42 points.

    That’s why we’re having this conversation . Otherwise Hemsky would already be signed.

    How long do you think Gagner’s 5V5 points will surpass Wellwood’s?

    Amazing what an 8 point game will accomplish in a small sample size.

    Byron Bitz: 4.00

    See what I did there?

    :)

  78. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    DSF:
    Unfortunately, P/60 don’t mean much when your best season in the past three years is 42 points.

    Why are you including this year? Who thinks the statement “the past three years” ever includes a current, incomplete year? Who uses partial year stats to discuss complete year production? Are you in cahoots with Ricky?

    We are all aware that Hemsky’s total point production in the last two years and this current year has been hampered by injury and recovery… there is no good reason to put your thumb on the scales.

  79. ohhell says:

    The best way to deal with trolls is to ignore trolls. This has been stated many times before and is worth mentioning again. It’s a simple process – just ignore.

  80. DSF says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Why are you including this year? Who thinks the statement “the past three years” ever includes a current, incomplete year? Who uses partial year stats to discuss complete year production? Are you in cahoots with Ricky?

    We are all aware that Hemsky’s total point production in the last two years and this current year has been hampered by injury and recovery… there is no good reason to put your thumb on the scales.

    In assessing a players value, any smart GM will take injury and production into account.

    Hemsky has scored .57 PPG this season which, if he plays the remaining games this season will yield another season south of 40 points.

    No putting any thumbs on any scales…the numbers speak for themselves.

    Any GM signing Hemsky, including Tambellini, won’t ignore those numbers but will be gambling that he can return to 08/09 performance.

    Perhaps he can, but ignoring the risk doesn’t make it go away.

  81. Ribs says:

    Woodguy: Kessler 1.77
    Wellwood 1.95
    Gagner 2.30

    Hah.. I was waiting for that one.

  82. Braintrust says:

    In my opinion, we should make either one of these two trades for Hemsky (if we have to sweeten the deal with another asset thrown in, then so be it):

    1) Hemsky to Detroit for Brendan Smith; or

    2) Hemsky to Minnesota for Charlie Coyle.

    Either way, if Tambellini does one of these deals, it would be a big step forward.

  83. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    DSF,

    Who discounted injury and production? Who said his production isn’t down this year? No one.

    There is, however, a non-trivial difference between these two statements:

    Player x has only produced y points in the last two years and is on pace to produce z points this year.

    and,

    Player x has only produced y points in the last three years.

    The former allows for analysis that includes the uptick in Hemsky’s production (13 points in last 17 games = .765 PPG) and the undecidability of the future (Let’s go back to Feb. 1st. Who’s going to bet on Gagner scoring 14 points in his next 4 games? No one. Yet, there it is.)

    The latter closes off discussion to both more in depth analysis and the undecidability of the future.

    It may seem like a small semantic matter, but it has import.

  84. Jordan says:

    DSF: In assessing a players value, any smart GM will take injury and production into account.

    Any GM signing Hemsky, including Tambellini, won’t ignore those numbersbut will be gambling that he can return to 08/09 performance.

    Perhaps he can, but ignoring the risk doesn’t make it go away.

    You know, this really helped me put things in perspective. This is the same GM that signed Bulin, correct? Should we not be surprised that not only has he not signed him, but he hasn’t signed him to a bloated contract over market value for 2 years longer than it should be?

    What would be worse? Would it not be worse to sign Hemsky for 7M per for 6 years, or worse to trade him for something/someone else?

  85. rickithebear says:

    Romulus: if hemsky was a 22G 71P player like his 3 best years. a 5M/yr contract would be 15% production for free versus the Average.

    But contracts are for 100% seasons. Hemsky does not play 100% seasons. Never has.

    More then 50% of the time you will get 42P or less out of an 82 Game season. what is there to argue about. You cannot look at his best three seasons when rating the player and ignore the other 6 seasons.

    if the injured and low production seasons were 1 of 2 of the last 5 years. then it is a better than 50% risk.
    But, Come on! 72,22,47, on pace for 69 this year, Averaged 58 games played the last 6 seasons.

    He is the Salo of our team. Effective in toughs, Hard to replace and good for the team, Salo took a 40% cut in salary cause he was injured all the time.
    Hemsky signs (58/82) X 5M = 3.5M per for 2 seasons. i have no complaints.

  86. Lucinius says:

    The people who talk like trading Hemsky is a good idea make me depressed.

    I understand there are situations where its for the best (i.e. he refuses to sign for a reasonable term or dollar amount), but my problem is that even considering his injury issues Hemsky makes the team more competitive and better than it is without him, especially given what assets he’ll fetch as a pending UFA and how hard it is for the Oilers to draw in a reasonable replacement for less or equal dollars to what he makes now.

    Edmonton still hasn’t shaken the ‘don’t want to play there’ stigma yet. The kids help reduce that, but only for some (as we learned in the first season of Oil Change).

    Hemsky has shown a willingness to stay in the past. He has some connections here. He will get paid a good deal (likely north of 5 mil per season average) should he hit free agency. Those of you saying he should take less than that seem a bit out to lunch to me, especially given the Oilers aren’t a cup contender — the primary reason players (like Salo) take pay cuts to stay where they are.

    He may be making unreasonable demands on the team in terms of length or dollars, in which case, as shitty as it is, its better to see him leave and get something in return.

    Personally, however, most of the talk about getting him out the door stinks of the same stuff that has led to numerous departures of players in the past of simple ‘I don’t like him’. Especially with the local mainstream media types.

    I hope he stays. If he leaves I hope he ends up somewhere good and can properly flourish, and hopefully somewhere where he won’t play the Oilers often so we don’t lose a lot of games to him like we tend to do against even average or worse ex-Oilers.

  87. DSF says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    DSF,

    Who discounted injury and production? Who said his production isn’t down this year? No one.

    There is, however, a non-trivial difference between these two statements:

    Player x has only produced y points in the last two years and is on pace to produce z points this year.

    and,

    Player x has only produced y points in the last three years.

    The former allows for analysis that includes the uptick in Hemsky’s production (13 points in last 17 games = .765 PPG) and the undecidability of the future (Let’s go back to Feb. 1st. Who’s going to bet on Gagner scoring 14 points in his next 4 games? No one. Yet, there it is.)

    The latter closes off discussion to both more in depth analysis and the undecidability of the future.

    It may seem like a small semantic matter, but it has import.

    It’s interesting you brought Gagner into the discussion and pointed out his 4 game out of body experience.

    Since Gagner is also in need of a new contract, as a GM, how much weight would you put on that four games?

    I’m curious what you think Gagner should get in his contract extension.

    As I recall the last time the Oilers brain trust negotiated a new contract for a player coming off serious injury and based on a partial season, Shawn Horcoff became a very rich man.

    Unless I’m misunderstanding you, you want the Oilers to repeat that process with Hemsky rather than take a look at the bigger picture.

    As it turns out, the Horcoff contract didn’t hurt as much as it might have because the Oilers went in the tank but this time is different because making a mistake on Hemsky’s contract could mean that one of the kids might need to be sent away.

    For the record, I am in favour of the Oilers re-signing Hemsky not because I think his production can’t be replaced for less money but because I doubt the return for him at this point will be more than minimal.

    Luckily for us, the man who (allegedly) signed MVP Khabibulin to his sparkling 4 year contract and is paying Sheldon Souray $2.5 million to play for the Dallas Stars is in charge of the Hemsky situation.

    ~ We’re in good hands. ~

  88. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    rickithebear,
    Let’s go through this one at a time.

    1) Contracts are NOT signed for 100% seasons. That is simply unrealistic given the nature of Hockey as a contact sport:

    To follow up on that, there have been just 19 players who have managed to play 75 games or more in each of the last six seasons. If you lower the threshold to 60, the number jumps to 104. There just aren’t that many guys both good enough and healthy enough to play a full schedule year after year.

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2012/2/11/2791867/oilers-v-senators-1-kings-20-1-4

    Excluding his rookie year and the past two years Hemsky has played 362/5 = 72 GP. That is actually a decently consistent rate of play over a five year span. Hardly the mark of a shrinking violet. If he finishes the year without incident for 69 GP he’ll be right around his career average.

    I think it is fair to take these years as more representative than his rookie season and the two seasons crippled by serious injury. What is more representative: the two years cut short by major injury and surgery, or the bulk of his playing career?

    2. “More then 50% of the time you will get 42P or less”

    To get that result you have to include his rookie and sophomore seasons and two seasons cut dramatically short by injury. I don’t think the production of the immature Hemsky is particularly relevant and his PPG production in both his short seasons dramatically augments the story on his low total point production.

    3. Who is ONLY looking at his best three seasons? Show me a post or article. Most people favorable to Hemsky evaluate him post-lockout, take notice of his injury battles and acknowledge his dip in production this year.

  89. TheOtherJohn says:

    DSF

    Did you adjust Kesler numbers for coming back from an injury? because god knows you are equally hard on the Canucks. Not!! Altho I’d trade you Jeff Carter for a package centered around Ballard

  90. Woodguy says:

    DSF: All of those players are tough minute players. Check.

    Unfortunately, P/60 don’t mean much when your best season in the past three years is 42 points.

    That’s why we’re having this conversation . Otherwise Hemsky would already be signed.

    How long do you think Gagner’s 5V5 points will surpass Wellwood’s?

    Amazing what an 8 point game will accomplish in a small sample size.

    Byron Bitz: 4.00

    See what I did there?

    I use Corsi QC as Gabe said its more accurate by the way, I think you’re using straight QC.

    So Fleishman and Versteeg are both the tough minute RW for FLA, even though Samulsson has tougher QC numbers than those two?

    So Glencross is the tough minute RW, but his QC is lower than Iginla?

    Lupal is 6th among Leaf forwards in Corsi QC.

    Higgin’s is a career 0.487pts/gm – Lower than Hemsky’s current “off year” of .571 that is causing all this discussion.

    Brouwer is a career 0.44 pts/gm – – Lower than Hemsky’s current “off year” of .571 that is causing all this discussion.

    Etc, etc.

    You also flip between pts/gm and pts/season whenever it suits your narrative. Its quite impressive.

  91. Denniss says:

    I think I’m gonna finish a piece on 83 for Ty’s site tomorrow or Wed but there’s a price-point I wouldn’t top even if Hemsky’s interested in staying in Edm.

    My problem is that I don’t have faith the Oilers can replace what he brings for let’s say 4.5 mill a season. But if you have to try then I’d try and grab Penner on a value pact. I can’t imagine there being a lot of interest and he did fit in well in edmonton. it would mean 91 would be the second line RW behind 14

  92. Woodguy says:

    because making a mistake on Hemsky’s contract could mean that one of the kids might need to be sent away.

    No.

    If a mistake is made on the Hemsky contract, Hemsky gets buried in the minors.

    Suggesting that one of the kids would get sent away is ridiculous.

  93. Woodguy says:

    For the record, I am in favour of the Oilers re-signing Hemsky not because I think his production can’t be replaced for less money but because I doubt the return for him at this point will be more than minimal.

    This is the correct answer.

    Are you sure though?

    Brouwer might be available.
    :)

  94. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    DSF,

    I thought the point of bringing up Gagner was pretty clear:

    In the midst of ongoing seasons and especially in the case of players rebounding from injury (as is the case for both Hemsky and Gagner) it is foolhardy, if not disingenuous, to assume the season’s boxcars are already in the bag by shoehorning an incomplete season into the phrase “in the past three seasons.”

    I never said anything about Gagner’s flurry of points being representative of anything… other than the fact that counting one’s chips before the game is over is not helpful.

    Athletes are streaky beasts and in the midst of a season you have to try to best to evaluate both how the season overall will turn out and how a player is currently trending.

    For example, if I said Hemsky is .765 PPG over the last 17 games but failed to mention his poor play before those 17 games, I would hope someone would call me on it. Likewise, when someone claims “Hemsky has scored .57 PPG this season” without noting his current trend (over a considerable # of games mind you), I intend to call that person out. The same goes for when someone shoehorns Hemsky’s point totals into the phrase “in the past three seasons” when 1/3 of a season remains to be played.

    You are very much misunderstanding me. Where did I say the Oiler should sign Hemsky on the basis of a partial season? Where has anyone advocated that? And while you are throwing red horcoff herrings into the mix you might as well claim I want to sign Hemsky to a Di Pietro deal.

  95. peeps says:

    Denniss: …My problem is that I don’t have faith the Oilers can replace what he brings for let’s say 4.5 mill a season. But if you have to try then I’d try and grab Penner on a value pact. I can’t imagine there being a lot of interest and he did fit in well in edmonton. it would mean 91 would be the second line RW behind 14

    Could Penner play RW? I remember he was on a line a few years ago with Pisani at C, and thecaptainethanmoreau on LW, and I remember that line being terrible. However, with a real centre and a better LW, could Penner realistically try to replace Hemsky against the toughs?

  96. Denniss says:

    peeps,

    I’m not really sure.

    More likely is that you have a three pronged LW set with 4-94-Penner and Penner’s alongside either 89 or 10.

    Unless the Oilers can pick up a real D in the market then you need to move one. I like 89 but I’m not convinced the Oil will roll with 93-89-10-20 down the middle just because I don’t think 20′s gonna want to play that few min. Maybe he gets dealt and 57 is the 4th line pivot again next year.

    I look at the forward corps and I think it’s good enough but we’re really not gonna be able to tell for sure unless the D’s addressed.

    Right now I think the Oilers actually plan on letting 58 get his ass kicked with top four min next year and they will also pay every witch doctor to ensure the health of 6. And then 25-44 right now would be third pairing with 24 back for one last kick.

    That’s how I would call it if I had to bet right now.

    and I obviously don’t believe that’s enough.

    only saving grace is that’s a cheap D corps so theoretically that could mean you can afford 83.

  97. Marc says:

    Denniss,

    As LA doesn’t have enough cap space to add anyone with a full season contract worth more than $3M, one of the more intriguing Hemsky trade possibilities would be Hemsky and one of Barker or Peckham for Penner and Voynov.

  98. Wolfpack says:

    I don’t really buy that a Hemsky signing will impact the kids coming off of their entry level deals. Unless you give Hemsky a NMC or something, he can be traded. Philly wanted to sink dollars into Giroux and a goalie so they moved Carter and Richards. Yes, I know there were other reasons, but key players can traded or assigned to the minors.

    I like the Sutton signing – he wants to stay here and we have seen a parade of worse players in those 5-6 spots in recent years. I guess the $250,000 games played bonus is insurance against his next suspension, which will be a whopping number of games when it happens.

  99. tubes says:

    Has Bryan Allen’s name been thrown around? 2 years at $3.5M/per perhaps? We need some depth and I’ve heard good things about him. I’m sure he’s better than Barker. Guys on my beer league team are.

  100. CrazyCoach says:

    I have not been fair in my past comments to Hemsky. As one who sits in the “saw him good” camp, which I feel still has merit but is not the only measuring tool, Hemsky is still a guy I would have on my hockey team. His production aside, he has never whined about being in Edmonton, even through all the BS that has gone on with the management.

    You would think after the whole Smyth fiasco that this management group would have learned by now. . Don’t trade an asset you have right now for what might happen in the future, with the emphasis on might.

  101. godot10 says:

    copperblueandwhite:
    Who among us would have a problem with Ales Hemsky for 3 yr for$13.5m-$14m?…get it done Tambo and then fix the real problem the AHL quality defensecorps….what a bunch of unnecessary drama.

    You Hemsky’s advocates can’t have it both ways. i.e. say he is a great player, and then say he has to take a pay cut from his current $5 million dollar salary when he is in the prime of his career. A 10% raise is pretty modest. The minimum acceptable offer probably is three years @ $5.5 million. Do you think it is wise to insult the player with your “pay cut” offers?

    (I would offer 1 year, $6 million, and that would be it, and be straightforward about needing to see a relative healthy season and a return to form before I could commit to duration. But I wouldn’t insult the player by asking for a pay cut.)

  102. Gret99zky says:

    CrazyCoach:
    You would think after the whole Smyth fiasco that this management group would have learned by now..Don’t trade an asset you have right now for what might happen in the future, with the emphasis on might.

    Smyth got 5 yrs @ $6.25M cap hit to leave town. Are you cool with giving Hemsky the same deal or would that be a fiasco?

  103. godot10 says:

    Woodguy:
    because making a mistake on Hemsky’s contract could mean that one of the kids might need to be sent away.

    If a mistake is made on the Hemsky contract, Hemsky gets buried in the minors.

    Suggesting that one of the kids would get sent away is ridiculous.

    If a mistake is made on the Hemsky contract, the Oilers lose the 10% cap cushion to ward off offer sheets to Hall, Eberle, or Nugent-Hopkins.

    The multiple offer sheet game can be a nasty one. Lombardi is getting desperate in LA, and needs an elite winger.

  104. godot10 says:

    Woodguy: Paying more than $750K for your 7th Dman is an overpay.

    Not if Whitney question mark is in your top #6

  105. godot10 says:

    DSF:
    Surprised no one has mentioned a front loaded deal in the 4 year range.

    $6M-$5M-$3M-$2M (Avg. cap hit – $4M)

    Provides Hemsky with some injury insurance early and provides the Oilers with an easy buyout after year two if things go south.

    Easy buyout from the dollar perspective. Not an easy buyout from the cap hit perspective.

  106. knighttown says:

    Woodguy: Paying more than $750K for your 7th Dman is an overpay.

    Darcy, Darcy, Darcy. We’ve talked about this and I thought we had an understanding. In the average hockey game, 296 minutes of ice time are earned by your roster of 18 skaters. This year, our preseason #7 defenseman (I think) was Jeff Petry who has averaged over 21 minutes per game, or 7.2% of that ice time. I may be cherry-picking with Petry so use Corey Potter (6.8%) or Andy Sutton (6.5%) if you prefer.

    Ales Hemsky plays just around 17.5 minutes per game (5.9%). I’ve recently seen your advocating paying Hemksy 5 million bucks a year. If all five players on the ice affect the game equally, whether it be positively or negatively, why on earth would you cheap out on such a crucial asset?

    Defensemen play 122 of the 296 (41.6%) minutes each game AND they get injured more. If I’m GM, I budget 40% of my skater budget towards defensemen so probably up around 23 million not counting guys off your active roster you can bury in the AHL.

    Now if you’d like to make the suggestion that Ben Eager and his 1.1 million for 2.7% of the ice time is overpaid…

  107. knighttown says:

    Captain Obvious:
    Ducey,

    Sure they do.In any event, the point isn’t that I trade for Sekera but rather that I trade for someone like Sekera and I’m willing to trade a future first round pick to do so.If the Sabres don’t bite, I go after Coburn or Vlasic.The point is that every summer there are teams near the cap who are willing to trade good players.I would identify a list of players I like and then I would call until I found a match.

    If the team wants a roster player back, I’ll give them Ryan Jones.If they like Eric Belanger, they can have him.If the want a young player, Pitlick and Hamilton are available.The point is that good, but not star, defensemen are available through trade in the summer and I would trade whatever the price was for that defenseman.

    ^^^this

    You take the “asset” that is available every deadline (1st rounders) at a relatively price and you move it on draft day when GM’s lose their fucking minds.

  108. knighttown says:

    Ribs,

    Great advice…I will do that.

  109. VOR says:

    I’d like to try and put Hemsky in context.

    28 year old gutless Czech to 28 year old gutless Czech. Injury plagued guy to injury plagued guy

    Hemsky at end of last year 8 seasons 508 games 395 points 8171 minutes 16.08 minutes per game an average of 63.5 games per season 2.90pts/60

    Player X 8 seasons at 28 looking for new contract played 17 games his 8th year and a total of 502 total to that point scored 427 points in 8991 minutes 17.91 minutes per game averages 62.75 games per year and 2.92pts/60

    Marion Gaborik (Player X) is in the third year of 7.5 million dollars a year for 5 years. Apparently there is a premium for injury plagued gutless Czechs. Who knew? Though maybe it has something to do with talent.

    I don’t expect 7.5M for 5 for Hemsky because he isn’t a great goal scorer like Gaborik. That said Hemsky can definitely get more in free agency than the Oilers can afford to offer. You also can’t replace him, even with Versteeg and rumor has it he is asking Florida for more than $5,000,000 per year and term to tie up UFA years.

    We either offer Hemsky term for a low cap hit but heavily front loaded or we trade him. No agent is going to let us test drive Hemsky to see if he is healthy because there are plenty of GMs out there who will make an offer with both high dollars and long term. Previous posters who said anything less than $5.5 M is an insult are right. You are going to have to start with some $6 M years and go from there.

  110. CrazyCoach says:

    Gret99zky: Smyth got 5 yrs @ $6.25M cap hit to leave town. Are you cool with giving Hemsky the same deal or would that be a fiasco?

    That was the settling price after he got traded to the Isles. His pre-trade price was a lot lower and from what I understand, a little more action earlier from K-Lowe and the deal gets done. No instead, we get the heart ripped out of a team with a big maybe in return that turned into the biggest flop since Charlie the Tuna.

    Give the boy the money. It’s a gamble, but the payoff is huge.

  111. DSF says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    DSF

    Did you adjust Kesler numbers for coming back from an injury?because god knows you are equally hard on the Canucks. Not!! Altho I’d trade you Jeff Carter for a package centered around Ballard

    No need. 5 goals in his last six games.

    He’s rolling again.

  112. Woodguy says:

    godot10: If a mistake is made on the Hemsky contract, the Oilers lose the 10% cap cushion to ward off offer sheets to Hall, Eberle, or Nugent-Hopkins.

    The multiple offer sheet game can be a nasty one. Lombardi is getting desperate in LA, and needs an elite winger.

    You are really overestimating the offer sheet thing.

    The compensation for the kind of numbers you are talking about are 5 1st rounders.

    No GM is stupid enough to do that. Outside of Lowe I mean.

    The only teams it makes sense to give away 5 first rounders are guys who pick in the bottom 5 every year.

    Those teams are loaded with heavy contracts, adding another is a reach.

    Not signing Hemsky because you are afraid of cap-cushion for offer sheets is like counting on golfing in Edmonton in February.

    It can happen, but don’t bet on it.

  113. Woodguy says:

    VOR,

    28 year old gutless Czech to 28 year old gutless Czech

    To call Hemsky gutless makes me think you have never watched him play.

  114. Woodguy says:

    knighttown,

    You take the “asset” that is available every deadline (1st rounders) at a relatively price and you move it on draft day when GM’s lose their fucking minds.

    I’ve been banging that drum for a while.

    The relative value of roster players and draft picks move along the same curves every year.

    Its as reliable as the tides.

  115. Woodguy says:

    knighttown: Darcy, Darcy, Darcy.We’ve talked about this and I thought we had an understanding.In the average hockey game, 296 minutes of ice time are earned by your roster of 18 skaters.This year, our preseason #7 defenseman (I think) was Jeff Petry who has averaged over 21 minutes per game, or 7.2% of that ice time.I may be cherry-picking with Petry so use Corey Potter (6.8%) or Andy Sutton (6.5%) if you prefer.

    Ales Hemsky plays just around 17.5 minutes per game (5.9%).I’ve recently seen your advocating paying Hemksy 5 million bucks a year.If all five players on the ice affect the game equally, whether it be positively or negatively, why on earth would you cheap out on such a crucial asset?

    Defensemen play 122 of the 296 (41.6%) minutes each game AND they get injured more.If I’m GM, I budget 40% of my skater budget towards defensemen so probably up around 23 million not counting guys off your active roster you can bury in the AHL.

    Now if you’d like to make the suggestion that Ben Eager and his 1.1 million for 2.7% of the ice time is overpaid…

    I never said that #7D weren’t important, just that the market is around $750K for that position.

    They may deliver value greater than what they get paid, but that’s a good thing because you usually have to overpay elsewhere, usually for scoring (or for 3rd liners if you are the Oilers)

  116. DSF says:

    Woodguy: I use Corsi QC as Gabe said its more accurate by the way, I think you’re using straight QC.

    So Fleishman and Versteeg are both the tough minute RW for FLA, even though Samulsson has tougher QC numbers than those two?

    So Glencross is the tough minute RW, but his QC is lower than Iginla?

    Lupal is 6th among Leaf forwards in Corsi QC.

    Higgin’s is a career 0.487pts/gm – Lower than Hemsky’s current “off year” of .571 that is causing all this discussion.

    Brouwer is a career 0.44 pts/gm –– Lower than Hemsky’s current “off year” of .571 that is causing all this discussion.

    Etc, etc.

    You also flip between pts/gm and pts/season whenever it suits your narrative.Its quite impressive.

    Any time you bring Corsi into a discussion you’re just lost credibility with me.

    If you don’t think Lupul, for example, plays tough competition I suggest you watch a game or two.

    Also, when Glencross was healthy, he was playing WITH Iginla. Fancy that.

    Samuelsson has been injured half the season so I doubt he was playing the toughs while on IR.

    Last 3 seasons:

    Good Hemsky – 22, 42, 24 (on pace for around 45 points)

    Previous 3 seasons:

    Bad Hemsky – 53, 71, 66

    So which Hemsky are you thinking of re-signing?

    I’d wager the latter is much more likely than the former when you consider his injuries and his relegation to second unit PP.

    If I’m making that bet, I have to consider how much it would cost to replace the production of Bad Hemsky.

    You’re saying he’s all but impossible to replace but that is codswallop.

  117. Woodguy says:

    DSF: Any time you bring Corsi into a discussion you’re just lost credibility with me.

    If you don’t think Lupul, for example, plays tough competition I suggest you watch a game or two.

    Also, when Glencross was healthy, he was playing WITH Iginla. Fancy that.

    Samuelsson has been injured half the season so I doubt he was playing the toughs while on IR.

    Last 3 seasons:

    Good Hemsky – 22, 42, 24 (on pace for around 45 points)

    Previous 3 seasons:

    Bad Hemsky – 53, 71, 66

    So which Hemsky are you thinking of re-signing?

    I’d wager the latter is much more likely than the former when you consider his injuries and his relegation to second unit PP.

    If I’m making that bet, I have to consider how much it would cost to replace the production of Bad Hemsky.

    You’re saying he’s all but impossible to replace but that is codswallop.

    I didn’t say he was impossible to replace.

    I said getting a Hemsky is infinitely tougher to get than random defensive “prospect”

    Its true.

    You know its true too.

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