Early 30

I thought Taylor Hall would be the first to 30 goals among the Oiler yutes, but Jordan Eberle won the day with a tremdenous run (27 goals in his last 51 games) allowing Edmonton’s leading scorer to find the range in game #66. His shooting percentage is 19.5% and he’s scored some goals that belong on a career highlight reel. He changes angles just before the shot, he has tremendous hand-eye, and he has chemistry with everybody.

Jordan Eberle is having a helluva year.

Here’s the Oilers GF list since the turn of the century:

  1. Ryan Smyth 05-06 36
  2. Mike Comrie 01-02 33
  3. Dustin Penner 09-10 32
  4. Ryan Smyth 06-07 31
  5. Ryan Smyth 00-01 31
  6. Jordan Eberle 11-12 30

How far can Eberle move up the list? Can he catch Comrie? And what about Taylor Hall–who sits at 23 goals–can he hit 30 this season too? And, isn’t this way more fun when the draft picks succeed?

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57 Responses to "Early 30"

  1. spoiler says:

    Eberle is on pace for 37. Very impressive if he does it.

  2. Chris Hext---formerly EasyOil--- says:

    LT, what do you think are the chances of Eberle’s boxscores regressing next season? His percentages do seem very high; on the other hand, he is a sublimely accurate shooter, and surely as he gets better as a player that will counteract an inevitable drop in percentages. Or am I completely out to lunch on that?

    Oh, and boy do I like Smid and Petry – they’re what all developing young d-men should at least hope to be.

  3. Lowetide says:

    Chris: Well, I think he’s going to trend back toward his career average but I have no idea what it is. Eberle was extremely accurate in WJ’s and AHL, but those are small sample sizes. He has improved markedly this season over his rookie year, and would guess he could finish anywhere from 9 to 15 per cent last season and no one should consider it anything but luck.

    But I don’t think we know what kind of shooter he’ll be, Eberle doesn’t have an established level of ability yet. MC wrote something on Eberle’s future not long ago, very interesting as alwys. I’d like but have to drive to work rfn.

  4. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    C. 2007: “I have my money on Riley Nash to hit 30 goals! Our first rounders never fail!! Yea KP, Yea KP!!”

  5. jonrmcleod (aka GospelofJon) says:

    Last night Bob MacKenzie mentioned that there could be a change to the CBA that could lower the amount players receive for their second contract. Anyone hear anything else about this? This would be a big deal for the Oilers.

  6. Jordan says:

    Lowetide:
    Chris: Well, I think he’s going to trend back toward his career average but I have no idea what it is. Eberle was extremely accurate in WJ’s and AHL, but those are small sample sizes. He has improved markedly this season over his rookie year, and would guess he couldfinish anywhere from 9 to 15 per cent last season and no one should consider it anything but luck.

    But I don’t think we know what kind of shooter he’ll be, Eberle doesn’t have an established level of ability yet. MC wrote something on Eberle’s future not long ago, very interesting as alwys. I’d like but have to drive to work rfn.

    I think this is the article you were referring to.

  7. Woodguy says:

    There are players whose SH% is high year to year.

    Two examples with reasonable sample sizes are:

    Roenick was a career 15.6%. (3281 shots)
    Tanguary 18.5% (1270 shots)

    Eberle might be one of these guys, but its far too early to know.

    He does tend to shoot in “scoring position” a lot and doesn’t take as many outside shots as some players.

    Given that he’s not a Corsi Machine like Hall, shooting from everywhere, its reasonable to expect him to have a career SH% that is higher than average. How much higher is crystal ball stuff.

    Justin Bourne has an interesting post up at The Score about the best cost-per-point players in the NHL. Eberle is up there.

    Here’s some interesting stats:

    1) Eberle is 2nd in the NHL in 5v5 pts/60, behind only Malkin who is getting lots of Hart talk
    2) RNH is 2nd in the NHL in 5v4 pts/60 (min 40 gp, min 1.5 min/60)
    3) Hall is 4th in the NHL IN 5V4 goal/60 (min 40gp, min 1.5m/60)

    Its stats like these that make me scream.

    What a waste of a good cheap season with these kids.

    A few short term overpays, especially on D and this may have been a playoff team.

  8. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy:
    Its stats like these that make me scream.

    What a waste of a good cheap season with these kids.

    A few short term overpays, especially on D and this may have been a playoff team.

    ^^^This^^^ you only get so many chances at elite talent on the cheap. but you can scratch one year off for “development/rebuild” purposes. it’s difficult to know when to switch gears and ST seems to have no sense for it or how to accomplish it… It’s the second/third year (i.e., next year) of those contracts that noise basically has to be made or there will literally be no daylight left for even the most ardent apologists.

  9. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    LT… you’ve got a real bug in your comments’ system.

  10. DSF says:

    Woodguy,

    DB 2G 3A 5P
    AH 0G 2A 2P

  11. Woodguy says:

    DSF:
    Woodguy,

    DB 2G 3A 5P
    AH 0G 2A 2P

    *yawn*

  12. nathan says:

    last few days anyone else seeing timeout errors and then duplicate post on next try without either post appearing?

  13. Dipstick says:

    Woodguy:
    There are players whose SH% is high year to year.

    Two examples with reasonable sample sizes are:

    Roenick was a career 15.6%. (3281 shots)
    Tanguary 18.5% (1270 shots)

    Eberle might be one of these guys, but its far too early to know.

    He does tend to shoot in “scoring position” a lot and doesn’t take as many outside shots as some players.

    Given that he’s not a Corsi Machine like Hall, shooting from everywhere, its reasonable to expect him to have a career SH% that is higher than average.How much higher is crystal ball stuff.

    Justin Bourne has an interesting post up at The Scoreabout the best cost-per-point players in the NHL.Eberle is up there.

    Here’s some interesting stats:

    1) Eberle is 2nd in the NHL in 5v5 pts/60, behind only Malkin who is getting lots of Hart talk
    2) RNH is 2nd in the NHL in 5v4 pts/60 (min 40 gp, min 1.5 min/60)
    3) Hall is 4th in the NHL IN 5V4 goal/60 (min 40gp, min 1.5m/60)

    Its stats like these that make me scream.

    What a waste of a good cheap season with these kids.

    A few short term overpays, especially on D and this may have been a playoff team.

    I doubt that the necessary pieces were available. Even then, this team has too many flaws to make a serious playoff run. The kids need to mature a bit and get a little stronger physically before a serious playoff run can be expected.

  14. Woodguy says:

    Dipstick: I doubt that the necessary pieces were available.Even then, this team has too many flaws to make a serious playoff run.The kids need to mature a bit and get a little stronger physically before a serious playoff run can be expected.

    I disagree and think meaningful games in March and April will do more for development of the kids than another baatan death march to the lottery.

    At the very least, being in the playoff race in March would have been better than looking at draft lists in January.

  15. nathan says:

    off topic (unless eberle has been hiding a y or that r on gagner’s passport is really a smudge):

    “Flyers traveling secretary Bryan Hardenbergh noticed on the team’s recent roadtrip to Western Canada that one of the team’s new defenseman had a different spelling on his passport than what he’s always gone by. Turns out Nick Grossman really is Nick Grossmann…Upon hearing the news, Flyers head equipment manager Derek Settlemyre went to work to have a new nameplate with 2 n’s on Grossmann’s game jersey for Tuesday night’s game.”

  16. Smarmy says:

    Eberle is scoring goals the same way he did in junior. I figured he would continue to score in the NHL because he goes to the places where the goal scoring happens rather then because you have more time and space in junior.

    I suspect he will always have a high percentage shooting rate. He scores goals in the kill zone.

  17. nathan says:

    Danny, The timeout issue may have some connection to the spam filter. After getting timeout and then duplicate post I dropped the url and the post was published. Then edited the post to add the url and got a message from the spam filter which then nuked the post.

  18. Scott Reynolds says:

    Regarding Eberle, I think we could be looking at a guy who beats up the percentages a little. Not to the extent of this season, but I’d be surprised if he wasn’t better than average for shooting percentage. AS LT mentioned, the info we’ve got from the AHL is limited but very good (9 goals on 44 shots for 20%). We don’t have the shots information for the WHL, but we do for the QMJHL where, from 2006-07 to 2009-10 there were just thirty player seasons that saw a player hit at least four shots per game during the regular season; only two players made the list twice. Even if we estimate that Eberle averaged four shots per game for his entire junior career (and if that’s true, it would be a major plus in its own way) that still leaves him shooting just over 15% in the WHL on just over 1,000 shots. I don’t know that he’ll be a 15% shooter in the NHL, but I’m willing to say with confidence that he’ll be clear of average over the long haul.

  19. Jordan says:

    nathan,

    Same thing happened to me Nathan. DIdn’t get fancy with trying to work around it, but the post never made it up.

    The exact message I am getting is “Your request timed out. Please retry the request.”

  20. Woodguy says:

    nathan:
    Danny, The timeout issue may have some connection to the spam filter. After getting timeout and then duplicate post I dropped the url and the post was published. Then edited the post to add the url and got a message from the spam filter which then nuked the post.

    I simply cannot post from my Blackberry anymore.

    I hit “submit” and it immediately goes to a timeout page.

  21. Dipstick says:

    Woodguy,

    I agree that playing meaningful games at this time of year would be better for players and fans. I just don’t think that the price to do that this year justifies the benefit and I doubt that they would achieve more than a first round exit. I could be completely off base but it seems that the price for developed assets would cost the team in the near future. My patience is wearing, but after investing all of this time (as a fan) in the rebuild, I’m not willing to panic just yet.

  22. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy,
    Jordan,
    nathan,

    for whatever reason this has worked for me: when my comment goes to the “timeout” page I simply hit the “previous page” button and it takes me back to the page without losing my comment. I hit post comment and bam… it works. I have no idea why… maybe it will for you guys too.

  23. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy,
    Dipstick,

    I’m not sure these positions are mutually exclusive. It’s clear that had ST actually found a reliable D corps in the off season (we’d have to review availability last summer to see if this was even feasible)… we’d have a much better team and maybe would have played meaningful games in march. at any rate, the efforts of the kids would look less wasted.

    But it also seems like a stretch to say that such a huge turnaround as making the POs would be a given… a lot is better this year (special teams especially) and we still stink. So the fix has to be major in scope… it is quite likely we would find ourselves with an upgraded D sitting on the bubble in Shark territory.

    Regardless the window of opportunity shrinks fast and ST/Lowe better come up with something in the offseason

  24. nelson88 says:

    Love all the kids but I agree with something LT wrote a while back (I’m sure he will correct me if I misread his intent) about Eberle being the key piece to drive the Oilers future success.

    I think all of the kids will be top shelf but believe Eberle will have a better career then Hall (as will RNH in my opinion). Even if he doesn’t it is pretty clear he is mature, grounded and well liked by his team mates. The fact he is from SK and grew up cheering for the Oilers means he is the guy you get to sign a long term, reasonably cap friendly deal that helps to get others signing on to build a contender.

  25. nathan says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    That did not work for me when I had a url in the post. I got duplicate comment instead. (When the timeout is hiding a spam block, looks like the duplicate check sees the spam blocked first try).

  26. Traktor says:

    Whenever Eberle is interviewed by non Oiler sources two questions always come up:

    1. What did you learn in your first season that has helped you in your second season?

    2. What did you do in the offseason that helped you get to where you are right now?

    Eberle: I learned how good the goalies are in the NHL and mostly worked on my shot in the summer, specifically getting the shot off quickly.

    Take notice Ales.

  27. spoiler says:

    The previous page thing works sometimes. But I still lost three comments last night, including a response to LMHF (sorry bud, if you’re reading).

    I have an HTC Android and this site gives it a ton of problems (sorry Danny). I haven’t tried posting from my work box yet, but I assume one of you fellas has non-mobile posted and there are still issues.

  28. LMHF#1 says:

    spoiler:
    The previous page thing works sometimes. But I still lost three comments last night, including a response to LMHF (sorry bud, if you’re reading).

    I’ve had a bunch of issues lately as well. Very odd. I’m sure it will get smoothed out soon.

  29. Jordan says:

    spoiler,

    We are transitioning to chrome at work, so that may be part of the issue – I’m not sure.

  30. pboy says:

    I really appreciate Eberle’s patience before he shoots. He usually pauses for a split second after he receives a passes and readies himself and moves into an optimal spot before he releases that laserbeam. It reminds me of a Coaches Corner where Cherry was showing goals by Kirk Muller (as a Hab in OT) and Darryl Sittler where there never seemed to release the puck when the goalie expected them too and it created some extra space for them to shoot. Eberle seems to do that alot IMO.

  31. Ducey says:

    Arrggg! Two posts “timed out” and erased.

  32. bookje says:

    nathan: A few short term overpays, especially on D and this may have been a playoff team.

    No Man, its just you. The government has bugged your computer and is selling your info the Vatican. You haven’t been looking at porn on that thing have you? If you have, you better get rid of it right now. Burn it or smash it or whatever, but get rid of it quick before the acolytes show up at your door to take you away!

  33. bookje says:

    Woodguy: I simply cannot post from my Blackberry anymore.

    I hit “submit” and it immediately goes to a timeout page.

    Click back, then click post comment again and it works.

  34. bendelson says:

    Eberle’s quickness and ability to dance the opposition in a phone booth is starting to look an awful lot like Kane in Chicago.

    Reasonable comparison?

  35. bookje says:

    As mentioned, the solution for me has been

    Once I get the timeout error, I click the back button and then simply click the Post Comment button again.

    Works every time.

  36. bendelson says:

    The more I look into this comparison the more I like it. The fact that I’m suggesting a 22nd overall compares well with a 1st overall is nothing short of wonderful.

    What a gift the Oilers have received.

  37. bookje says:

    You know, I am starting to think Craig MacTavish might be coaching the Oilers next year.

    I know others have raised this as a possibility, but after reading the article about him coaching the Wolves, I just had the sense that he might be coaching here again.

  38. bendelson says:

    Kane ‘s first two years:

    162: 46g, 96a – 142 pts
    0.87 pts/gm
    0.33 g/gm

    Eberle to date:
    131: 48g – 58a – 106 pts
    0.81 pts/gm
    0.37 g/gm

    Sorry no advanced stats from the iPhone

  39. Jordan says:

    bookje,

    As great as things have been around here since he left, I can’t say I want him back. Somehow, I’m not convinced that MacT’s D-first attitude would make any more effective use of the parts available to him than Renney has.

    Considering how well things are going in Ottawa, I’d think the solution to the Oilers coaching situation is simple – hire an assistant from Detroit.

    No?

  40. spoiler says:

    DSF:
    Woodguy,

    DB 2G 3A 5P
    AH 0G 2A 2P

    I am so looking forward to 145 games of DAILY updates on this bet…

    Not.

    Can we agree to an every 20 game armistice, please, DSF? Or maybe you could go create some Blogger site where you can go all compusive-obsessive to your heart’s content over this bet?

  41. bookje says:

    spoiler: I am so looking forward to 145 games of DAILY updates on this bet…

    Not.

    Can we agree to an every 20 game armistice, please, DSF? Or maybe you could go create some Blogger site where you can go all compusive-obsessive to your heart’s content over this bet?

    Can someone clarify the bet for me – I kind of ignored the whole thing when it was coming together, but now am curious what it is.

  42. bookje says:

    Jordan:
    bookje,

    As great as things have been around here since he left, I can’t say I want him back. Somehow, I’m not convinced that MacT’s D-first attitude would make any more effective use of the parts available to him than Renney has.

    Considering how well things are going in Ottawa, I’d think the solution to the Oilers coaching situation is simple – hire an assistant from Detroit.

    No?

    Yeah, I had reservations about MacT while he was here and think that he may have difficulty with coaching the right level of ‘complexity’ in the game.

    I just see Renney struggling (maybe), MacT about to re-enter the NHL, Katz’s belief in MacT (MacT isn’t going anywhere), and the possiblity that Katz may feel that MacT might be able to do great things now that he has some players to work with. Remember, he was fired because he could not get Lowe’s team to win – he actually said something like – “Nodbody could coach/win with this bunch of players” and indeed, he was right in retrospect.

    Katz may feel guilty about giving him the impossible task and then firing him when he didn’t succeed at it.

  43. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    bookje: Can someone clarify the bet for me – I kind of ignored the whole thing when it was coming together, but now am curious what it is.

    I don’t know what it is either, but I’m assuming it has something to do with Wellwood.

  44. Woodguy says:

    bookje: Can someone clarify the bet for me – I kind of ignored the whole thing when it was coming together, but now am curious what it is.

    Hemsky vs. Dustin Brown. Total points from Feb 27/2012 to the end of the 2013/2014 season.

    Yes, a 2 1/2 year bet.

  45. thurmtim says:

    Actually, I am curious as to whether MacT is more interested in going the GM route. I suspect he would be a pretty good one… any thoughts? I DO miss his pressers and his spunk. Remember Harvey the Tongueless Hound? Best laugh I have ever had at a hockey game…

  46. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy,

    bragging rights only?

  47. godot10 says:

    I use Safari and OS Lion on a MacBook.

    This site has been giving me grief, particularly during games the last three days.

    If the Oilers would have been healthier and suspension free on defence, they would have been hanging with the pack just outside the playoffs this year.

    They lost Fedun for the season. Sutton (suspension) and Gilbert (injury) simultaneously. And Whitney’s troubles.

    Last year they were aiming for the lottery again. They tried to do better this year to aim for 8th place, but they were one defenseman short, which many here figured before the season. That and Renney had been awful at structuring the lines this year, running Belanger as a 3rd line centre instead of a 4th line centre.

    I hope we see Wideman and Murray added to this pool of defensemen next year, and Renney gone.

    If it means Renney is gone, I would welcome MacT back. Most of the players are from the mess at the end of his tenure are gone. It is a different team. MacT is a good, but not great coach. Renney is a less than good coach. I also think MacT would know how to develop Paajarvi, who is the type of prospect custom built for MacT.

  48. regwald says:

    Woodguy: Hemsky vs. Dustin Brown.Total points from Feb 27/2012 to the end of the 2013/2014 season.

    Yes, a 2 1/2 year bet.

    No worries Woodguy, you will have an insurmountable lead at some point next season, that DSF will find the need to forget about posting. :o))

  49. nathan says:

    DSF declined to start the bet at trade deadline and then asked Woodguy to retroactively start at this year after Brown had a big night. If DSF actually leads at end of this season one might understand some chirping. But so far this is just another round from our Deceptive Statistics Feed.

  50. DSF says:

    nathan:
    DSF declined to start the bet at trade deadline and then asked Woodguy to retroactively start at this year after Brown had a big night. If DSF actually leads at end of this season one might understand some chirping. But so far this is just another round from our Deceptive Statistics Feed.

    The bet started on trade deadline day…no retroactivity.

    Brown scored 3 goals and 1 assist in his last game before the trade deadline.

    Doesn’t count…otherwise he’s be leading 9-3.

  51. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Woodguy,

    bragging rights only?

    Yes.

    Statement of hockey knowledge superiority upom demand. Limits on the frequency.

  52. Woodguy says:

    nathan:
    DSF declined to start the bet at trade deadline and then asked Woodguy to retroactively start at this year after Brown had a big night. If DSF actually leads at end of this season one might understand some chirping. But so far this is just another round from our Deceptive Statistics Feed.

    Close, but DSF never declined anything.

    We agreed to the bet and starting date was vague.

    We then agreed that 3pm EST Feb 27/2012 was agreeable.

  53. Lowetide says:

    I wish we were Kings. We could bet fleets or land or 10,000 pieces of gold.

  54. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide:
    I wish we were Kings. We could bet fleets or land or 10,000 pieces of gold.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQVsyfH5Yv0

    “a general amount of some kind of currency or another”

  55. Lowetide says:

    I laughed a lot at that. Who is that guy?

  56. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide,

    Louis CK. very funny stand up. Me and the lady saw him here in Toronto two years ago… hilarious!

    He’s pretty well known now for this clip:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8r1CZTLk-Gk

    here’s some of our favorites… I’ll just warn you he is filthy:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vt_dKh6gMws
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5Z_ZducwbQ
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vwy_fy5tmf0

    He’s also got a tv show, just called louie… he launched it with this teaser… extraordinarily filthy:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5jPZpptlABM

  57. Whiskeyjack says:

    Don’t expect DSF to own up if he is losing a bet. He bet that Dustin Penner would scoore 90 points this year on the almighty KIngs

    How is that working out?

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