G64 Stars at Oilers

The hope for Oiler fans today is that RNH and or Taylor Hall will enjoy Mike Modano-like success in the NHL–with one notable exception. Modano began his career in Minnesota and helped the franchise win a Stanley in Dallas. Oiler fans would much prefer seeing the Stanley (and the Oilers) remain in Edmonton.

Interesting quote in the paper from Tom Renney in regard to Taylor Hall: “But I have heard a couple of referees come back at this young fellow – with disrespect, if not worse. I’ve said why don’t you just back off and help this young fellow understand how this could work instead of being as ignorant, if not more so.”

What now? I was a little amazed that the coach passed that along, can imagine the situation getting worse before it improves. I like Hall’s swagger, he seems less of a whiner than a guy like Crosby was at the same age and there’s a tremendous amount of “I’ll take it into my own hands” and #4. I know that runs the risk of injury, but you can’t have a bunch of wallflowers either. Taylor Hall joins the game at all levels, and at some point the calls will go his way (once he reaches a certain status) and he’ll remain that aggressive kid who gives no quarter.

I think he’s going to be a real piss cutter.

I’ve been wondering about Jordan Eberle’s shooting percentage. Several have chimed in to say it isn’t sustainable, but my question is when does shooting skill become an established level of ability. Here are Ebs’ SP’s during the last two years:

  • 10-11: 11.39
  • 11-12:19.58

The only other shooting percentages we have on this player are WJ’s (20, 32, 23.53) and that stint in the AHL (25). Bill James used to say that a hitter’s established level of ability came after three consistent seasons at a certain level. Eberle’s first two seasons are not similar. How much should we expect him to fall back next season?

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216 Responses to "G64 Stars at Oilers"

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  1. Dipstick says:

    I like Eberle’s shot selection. He rarely throws a softie at the net. I would not be surprised if he maintains a SP over 15%.

  2. Woodguy says:

    The only other shooting percentages we have on this player are WJ’s (20, 32, 23.53) and that stint in the AHL (25). Bill James used to say that a hitter’s established level of ability came after three consistent seasons at a certain level. Eberle’s first two seasons are not similar. How much should we expect him to fall back next season?

    An interesting guy to look at is Jeremy Roenick.

    He had a 20 year career, mostly in the dead puck era (“WAKE UP NHL!”)

    He was a career 15.6% shooter. Scored 513 goals in 1363 games.

    Here is his shooting percentage by year starting in 1988/89:

    17.3
    15
    21.1
    22.6
    19.6
    16.4
    10.8
    18.7
    12.7
    13.2
    11.8
    17.7
    15.6
    12.6
    13.7
    14.8
    8.1
    12.4
    15.7
    8

    His median was 14.8%. He’s all over the ice here with a definite trend down over time.

    Not sure what conclusions you can take from this, but in a nice sample, the “true ability” seems to be a moving target.

    He took 3281 shots in the NHL.

    Also,

    Winnable game tonight.

    Dallas is better than I thought they would be, but they are the only playoff team in west (8th) with a negative goal differential (-1)

    They live and die with Lehtonen(24-15, .921) .Bachman has done well too( 7-3 .916), but Raycroft has been Raycroft (2-8, .898)

    Looks like Renney is spreading the passing magic over two lines with 83 and 93 being separated. That’s a good thing.

    1st night back in EDM for Big Sexy. He’ll get booed mostly with some cheers.

    The fanbase should boo v4.0 for that whole debacle. Everyone gets problem players, but the only reason Souray goes to the press is when he feels ignored imo. All sides to blame there.

    Oilers win 4-3.

    Hall, Hall, Horcoff and Potter with the goals.

    Go Oilers!

  3. rickithebear says:

    So SH% : Elite goal scorers.
    Look at the SH% by shot count.
    -300+ shot guys around 10-11% career
    -245-285Sh guys around 12.-13.5% career
    -200-220 shot guys around 15% Career
    A 200-220 shot 15% Eberle may be sustainable.

    Do you think Eberle is an elite scorer?

  4. Jordan says:

    rickithebear:

    Do you think Eberle is an elite scorer?

    Kinda hard to argue with the results, no?

  5. Woodguy says:

    Jordan: Kinda hard to argue with the results, no?

    I deem your sample size INSUFFICIENT!!! :)

  6. LMHF#1 says:

    Sounds like if you follow Bill James’ logic, you’re late to the rodeo.

    The point isn’t to be able to see an elite skill after the fact, but to see it developing.

  7. Ducey says:

    Whenever people talk about the Oilers defence they ignore poor Corey Potter. Why?

    He is leading the team in scoring and Rel Corsi among defencemen. His ppg is the same as Ryan Jones. He has some size, can skate, and plays more physical than recent heartthrob Tom Gilbert.

    He looks to be a damn good signing and a value contract.

    *Brought to you by the committee to get Corey Potter more respect.

  8. Captain Obvious says:

    The referees in this league really need to get a clue. That quote by Renney is pretty damning. The worst part about it is that this kind of behaviour is encouraged by the league. They think it manages the game.

    I also agree with the point from the last thread that referees have stopped calling penalties. It isn’t just Oiler games or games against the Oilers. II will often watch the TSN games and the refs have been only making the obvious calls (high sticking where a guy goes down, delay of game etc.) for a while now. The only penalty they are looking to call is goaltender interference. I wonder how many other people have made this observation independently? It sure seems to me that something has happened behind the scenes. There has definitely been a memo regarding the goalies but the change seems more widespread than that. This is the biggest not talked about story in the hockey world as it will play a huge role in who wins the Stanley Cup.

  9. stevezie says:

    Hall walks a fine line between fiery competitor who hates to lose and petulant, spoiled brat, and there is no reason to have a foot in each camp. I love his passion, we all love his passion, but someone needs to put him in an Ecclesiastes 3 bible study group pronto. there is a time to yell at the refs, and a time to not yell at the refs. A time to slam your stick on the glass, a time to not slam your stick on the glass. A time to publicly embarrass your coach (is there?)…
    Taylor, the goal is to win, not to let everyone know you care.

  10. LMHF#1 says:

    stevezie:
    Hall walks a fine line between fiery competitor who hates to lose and petulant, spoiled brat, and there is no reason to have a foot in each camp. I love his passion, we all love his passion, but someone needs to put him in an Ecclesiastes 3 bible study group pronto. there is a time to yell at the refs, and a time to not yell at the refs. A time to slam your stick on the glass, a time to not slam your stick on the glass. A time to publicly embarrass your coach (is there?)…
    Taylor, the goal is to win, not to let everyone know you care.

    To be fair, I think some of our best-refereed games at home this year have come when the whole team is yapping at the refs from the beginning of the game. Strange but true.

  11. Dipstick says:

    stevezie:
    Hall walks a fine line between fiery competitor who hates to lose and petulant, spoiled brat, and there is no reason to have a foot in each camp. I love his passion, we all love his passion, but someone needs to put him in an Ecclesiastes 3 bible study group pronto. there is a time to yell at the refs, and a time to not yell at the refs. A time to slam your stick on the glass, a time to not slam your stick on the glass. A time to publicly embarrass your coach (is there?)…
    Taylor, the goal is to win, not to let everyone know you care.

    I due time Hall will not only start getting more respect from the zebras but will also better pick the time to bitch. These two things may also be a bit of cause and effect. He is still a kid. We should give him a bit of a break.

  12. Lois Lowe says:

    It seems to me that since the new year the refs have stopped calling obstruction in the same way. There is more clutch and grabbing and I think it’s likely a league wide thing. Maybe the game sped up too much and they think there’s a correlation with concussions.

  13. jake70 says:

    I remember back in the spring of 1991, out with friends at the pub, cheap pitcher night, looking up at the TV ( was the only one paying attention) as Minnesota was eliminating Edmonton in the conference finals. For me, it was at that moment as time expired, despite them going again to the conference finals vs Chicago the next year, that the 80s party had eneded, Gretzky was really really gone, the Oilers were now with the rank and file of the rest of the NHL, they just lost to Minnesota. Depressing man.

    But….better times ahead……right? fasten your belts…

  14. DSF says:

    Lois Lowe:
    It seems to me that since the new year the refs have stopped calling obstruction in the same way. There is more clutch and grabbing and I think it’s likely a league wide thing. Maybe the game sped up too much and they think there’s a correlation with concussions.

    I watched the Blues/Canucks game last night and it was a no holds barred tong war.

    On multiple occasions, players were tackled by the opposition and nothing was called.

    There were only 4 minor penalties called in a game that resembled a Stanley Cup final contest.

    The whistles have been swallowed.

  15. Captain Obvious says:

    Lois Lowe,

    I had the same thought. I think that instead of making an actual change to the rules they sent out an internal communication to change how things are being called. This clearly happened with the goalies after the Ryan Miller thing so there is a precedent. However, it has gone well beyond allowing more obstruction, they aren’t calling any stick fouls at all even when they related to scoring chances.

    It’s shameful really. It’s time for an entrepreneurial blogger to expose the sham before it ruins the playoffs.

  16. cabbiesmacker says:

    I see no good reason that young Mr Eberle cannot finish his career with similar shooting percentages as this bum.

    GP 752
    G’s 752
    A’s 573
    Shots 2,705

    Career Shooting % = 21.2

    INSANE! Best pure goal scorer to ever play the game IMO.

    Oh and Jarri Kurri was kinda decent himself posting a career 19.1%.

  17. Jordan says:

    Captain Obvious,

    Lois Lowe,

    I know there was a clip playing on Team 1260 recently of Brian Burke talking about the possible need to “slow the game down” again. Burke’s (paraphrased)response: This is the best product we’ve ever had on the ice, and people want to change it? I haven’t seen a lot more injuries in footraces for pucks – the injuries have mostly come from dirty plays. There may be some who think slowing the game down will help with the injuries problem. I am not on that team.

    I never thought I’d say this, but I agree with Brian Burke.

    That doesn’t feel nearly as dirty as I thought it might.

  18. DSF says:

    Edmonton Oilers ‏ @NHL_Oilers

    “He’s been a really effective player for us and has earned this opportunity. He should open ice for them.” – Renney on Petrell with 14 & 93

  19. Ducey says:

    It’s shameful really. It’s time for an entrepreneurial blogger to expose the sham before it ruins the playoffs.

    In the playoffs swallowing the whistle is standard operating procedure. No ref wants to decide a series or OT with a penalty. The playoffs will not be “ruined” if we don’t have the usual number of ticky tack stick and obstruction fouls as the first month of the season. Quite the contrary.

    I can almost guarantee that the first two games of the first round will be like preseason with all the minor stuff being called. Then gradually the number of calls will drop, until the Cup final when only full decapitation will get you 2 minutes.

  20. FastOil says:

    The resurgence of the Oilers wouldn’t be right without the league changing the rules against them now would it? Just like old times. Guess we’re going to have to find a Messier or two.

  21. Captain Obvious says:

    DSF:
    Edmonton Oilers ‏ @NHL_Oilers

    “He’s been a really effective player for us and has earned this opportunity. He should open ice for them.” – Renney on Petrell with 14 & 93

    I’m coming to the point where I think Renney is just not a very smart person. Dennis nailed it in the last thread. Petrell scored a bad goal in the last game and now that is all Renney can remember. To put it in general terms, Renney suffers from two cardinal sins of talent evaluation.

    First, he commits the sin of post facto reasoning. He places too much emphasis on results and then interprets everything that went into the results on a that retrospective basis.

    Second, he commits the sin of relativistic expectations. He evaluates players with reference to the “role” the player is supposed to fill rather than his actual performance. Thus Petrell can do his job simply by trying hard and making the simple play but someone like Omark is only good if he scores. This neglects the fact that Omark is a better player than Petrell even when he is not scoring.

    Cam Charron has a good quote on this today from Stan Bowman:

    “I was listening to Chicago Blackhawks’ general manager Stan Bowman discuss a system the Blackhawks used when Bowman joined the hockey operations department. It was a simple tool to chart out the coach’s player rating for a player over the course of a game on a scale of 1-to-5.

    Well, Bowman pointed out, the ratings provided by the coach, tallied up after every game, never matched reality. A coach’s subjective bias, he explained, benefit the third line players and the players who were closer to replacement level. Those players ratings were “unfairly propped up because the expectations for that player are much lower.”

    Renney’s biggest failure is that he thinks within paradigms that are guaranteed to make him misevaluate and hence misuse talent. This is inexcusable at the pro level. Worse, it filters into management as this leads to some talent dying on the vine (Omark) while other talent is traded away for cents on the dollar (Gilbert).

    Thus, I conclude that Renney is a major problem for this team and must be replaced if the greatness of the young players is ever to be fully realized.

  22. Captain Obvious says:

    Ducey:
    It’s shameful really. It’s time for an entrepreneurial blogger to expose the sham before it ruins the playoffs.

    In the playoffs swallowing the whistle is standard operating procedure.No ref wants to decide a series or OT with a penalty.The playoffs will not be “ruined” if we don’t have the usual number of ticky tack stick and obstruction fouls as the first month of the season.Quite the contrary.

    I can almost guarantee that the first two games of the first round will be like preseason with all the minor stuff being called.Then gradually the number of calls will drop, until the Cup final when only full decapitation will get you 2 minutes.

    You are, of course, right. And it is a sham. It ruined the finals last year. The idea that the refs “don’t want to decide the game” is the single dumbest idea in sports. Allowing the teams to cheat decides the game just as much as calling penalties does. Instead of the contest being decided by talent it gets decided by who is the best at cheating.

  23. DSF says:

    Captain Obvious: You are, of course, right.And it is a sham.It ruined the finals last year.The idea that the refs “don’t want to decide the game” is the single dumbest idea in sports.Allowing the teams to cheat decides the game just as much as calling penalties does.Instead of the contest being decided by talent it gets decided by who is the best at cheating.

    Couldn’t agree more.

    The league needs to set parameters for officiating and stick to them throughout the entire season and playoffs.

    Otherwise GM’s are left scratching their heads about what type of team they need to build and, generally speaking, teams with high end skill players like the Oilers will utlimately get penalized.

    As you say, swallowing their whistles in the playoffs in just as much interference in the outcome of games as calling everything by the book.

  24. spoiler says:

    20 or so penalties in the Habs game last night. 9 in the Ranger game, 8 in theColorado game…

    This is not the issue to go all anecdotal, subjective or personal on, especially when criticizing the coach’s own mis-use of logic in the next post.

    Just sayin’.

  25. Woodguy says:

    DSF:
    Edmonton Oilers ‏ @NHL_Oilers

    “He’s been a really effective player for us and has earned this opportunity. He should open ice for them.” – Renney on Petrell with 14 & 93

    OILERS: “We want to like the Detroit Red Wings and be a puck possession team”

    So what do the do?

    1) Trade one of the best puck possession Dmen for one of MIN’s worst. (worst via puck possesion, not overall play)

    2) Demote one of their best puck possession forwards to OKC for 1/2the year (again, puck possession, not points)

    3) Elevate their worst puck possession forward to a scoring line with 93 & 14

    Listening to the Oilers talk about being a puck possession team then seeing their actions reminds me when we taught a bunch of Korean students to sing pub songs in University.

    They words sounded right, but they had no clue what they were actually saying.

  26. stevezie says:

    Dipstick,

    i’ve got all the time in the world for Hall. The list of players who were babies before they were stars includes such handsome men as Bure, Crosby and a host of other all-stars who needed to learn how to whine/teach the league to respect their complaints

    @C.O
    Couldn’t agree more. never understood why letting guys cheat became letting them play.

  27. Ducey says:

    DSF,

    Or perhaps the Oilers should realise that the playoffs are a different animal and build their team accordingly.

    Boston and Vancouver are equipped to play whatever game they need to. You will notice that Gillis game up a smurf and brought in a Lucic.

    You can bet Lowe knows damn well what the playoffs are about. Sather’s Oilers had the most talent but they could hit and beat the crap out of you too. I bet that is one small reason for the Gilbert/ Schultz trade, the desire for a Sutton, the flirtations with the fridges, and why they will ultimately trade Gagner.

    The Oilers need more size to do anything in the playoffs, and they know it.

  28. Woodguy says:

    spoiler:
    20 or so penalties in the Habs game last night. 9 in the Ranger game, 8 in theColorado game…

    This is not the issue to go all anecdotal, subjective or personal on, especially when criticizing the coach’s own mis-use of logic in the next post.

    Just sayin’.

    Sample size, a few games mean nothing.

    Penalties have been on a downward arc since the lockout.

    Here is an article on NHL.com from Feb 10/2012 that mentions that:

    Entering the weekend, the 810 games played this season have had an average of 6.90 power plays — the lowest figure since 1978-79, when the 17-team NHL averaged 6.77 power plays in its 680 games.

    Its real.

    edit: link problem, try this:

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=616183

  29. Woodguy says:

    Ducey,

    You will notice that Gillis game up a smurf and brought in a Lucic.

    Hodson is 6’0 185.

    I don’t think that word means what you think it means.

  30. DSF says:

    Woodguy:
    Ducey,

    You will notice that Gillis game up a smurf and brought in a Lucic.

    Hodson is 6’0 185.

    I don’t think that word means what you think it means.

    Hodgson was easily the smallest forward on the Canucks roster with the exception of Raymond who is likely expendable.

    Hell, even Chris Higgins weighs in at 205.

  31. jimmers says:

    cabbiesmacker,

    That is funny, my instinctive reaction to reading LT’s bit about Eberle was also to think of Kurri and Bossy (the good old days!) and Brett Hull as well. Three is hardly a reasonable sample and these three in particular are as far from “normal” as shooters get, but Hull and Kurri both had pretty variable career S%. Kurri’s career average is 19.1%, he started in the 15′s (playing with Wayne of course), went between 20.6 and 28.8% in his third to ninth seasons, and then trailed off to 16.4 to 8.2 from year 10 to 17. Pretty much a consistent build up to his biggest years 84/85 and 85/86, then an almost uniform, slow decline. Hull started at 15 to 17%, declined a bit his first full year in ST. L., rose to a peak of between 17.2 and 22.1% in his first huge years from ’89 to ’92, then levelled off at mostly around 13 to 14% till the end of the line, excepting two big years (around 17 to 18%) rather late in his career in Dallas. These are two very different players who scored in dissimilar ways but one can see clearly how the S% can vary in elite scorers from year to year and during their careers.

    Mike Bossy’s career makes a stark contrast. I thought back in the day that he was a kind of inhuman robot-scoring machine, he was so consistent and seemed to score so regularly on fast shots and plays so precise they couldn’t be simply reactions. Bossy’s scoring rates always stuck very close to his career average of 21.2% (between 20.2 and 24.7) except for his last season when he was riddled with major back problems (only 16.8 then!). Luck, line mates, whatever else didn’t bother him and his shot totals are pretty consistent too, from 235 to 315 per season (including rookie and injured years) with most seasons clustering between 272 and 301 shots. The guy really was something of a machine and I’d wage quite a lot that his was not the normal career trajectory .

    Who knows what all this means for Eberle (not me anyway), but he reminds me a bit of Bossy in how he scores (not that he is as good as Bossy was or can touch his numbers). It would be nice if Eberle’s s% and shooting rates level off at some consistent and high numbers. 19.8 will be hard to do again with the state of the modern defensive game but surely he can sustain numbers well above 11% if he stays healthy, etc. The guy has sublime hands but his tiny adjustments and shot selection seem to get him numerous excellent opportunities to use his shot.

    Nice gunslinger photo of Eberle!

  32. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: Sample size, a few games mean nothing.Penalties have been on a downward arc since the lockout.Here is an article on NHL.com from Feb 10/2012 that mentions that:Entering the weekend, the 810 games played this season have had an average of 6.90 power plays — the lowest figure since 1978-79, when the 17-team NHL averaged 6.77 power plays in its 680 games.Its real.edit: link problem, try this:http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=616183

    Not sure what you post has to do with the point that Captain Obvious, DSF, and others are making: that penalties are down significantly since New Years.

    But my post was in response to that contention.

  33. DSF says:

    Ducey:
    DSF,

    Or perhaps the Oilers should realise that the playoffs are a different animal and build their team accordingly.

    Boston and Vancouver are equipped to play whatever game they need to.You will notice that Gillis game up a smurf and brought in a Lucic.

    You can bet Lowe knows damn well what the playoffs are about.Sather’s Oilers had the most talent but they could hit and beat the crap out of you too.I bet that is one small reason for the Gilbert/ Schultz trade, the desire for a Sutton, the flirtations with the fridges, and why they will ultimately trade Gagner.

    The Oilers need more size to do anything in the playoffs, and they know it.

    Yeah, I think Gillis was surprised by the extent to which the officiating changed in the finals last season but has reacted accordingly.

    His acquisitions since then:

    Byron Bitz – 6’3″ 200
    Dale Weiss – 6’2″ 210
    Zack Kassian – 6’3″ 214
    Marc Gragnani – 6’2″ 205

    It appears the team has it figured out and, in last nights game against STL, they actually pounded the Blues all over the ice which, considering the Blues are built to do the same thing, was notable.

    Maxim LaPierre was credited with 10 hits in last night’s game and all of them were well deserved.

  34. Woodguy says:

    DSF: Hodgson was easily the smallest forward on the Canucks roster with the exception of Raymond who is likely expendable.

    Hell, even Chris Higgins weighs in at 205.

    Still doesn’t make him a smurf.

  35. Lois Lowe says:

    spoiler: Not sure what you post has to do with the point that Captain Obvious, DSF, and others are making:that penalties are down significantly since New Years.

    But my post was in response to that contention.

    From the article: Tapering down — History shows that average number of power plays per game tends to decline as the season goes along, and this season is no different. The 159 games played in October saw an average of 7.9 power plays; that figure dropped to 7.5 for the games played in November, 6.9 in December, 5.9 for January’s games and is down to 5.7 through the early stages of February.

    There have already been 28 games this season in which one team did not have a power play, and in five of those, the opposing team received only one advantage.

    It’s hardly conclusive but is illustrative of the point we’re raising.

  36. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: Not sure what you post has to do with the point that Captain Obvious, DSF, and others are making:that penalties are down significantly since New Years.

    But my post was in response to that contention.

    That its not just New Year’s but since the lock out.

  37. Ducey says:

    Woodguy: Ducey, You will notice that Gillis game up a smurf and brought in a Lucic. Hodson is 6’0 185.I don’t think that word means what you think it means.

    Yeah, he is not a little blue guy from a kid’s show. Thanks.

    He is however, below average in size for an NHL player and most importantly, plays like it. Especially when you consider NHL height and weights are always inflated. Heck, Sam Gagner is supposedly 5’11″ 195 lbs.

  38. Traktor says:

    Gagner sucks.

    Hemsky sucks.

    Horcoff is is a 4th liner with less toughness than Robert Nilsson.

    See you at the draft.

  39. nathan says:

    Penatlies are down. And goals as well of course. Wonder what the trend line even look like for 5×5 play after the rule changes. Was the temporary increase in goals just about a temporary increase in calling interference.

    Time for real measures to reward goals. GMs shot down the 3 point every game pitch, so fans should go all in and push for the simplest possible change. Just eliminate Bettma’s LOSER point. Give 1 point for a shootout win and no points for a shootout loss. Handing out 3 points treats tie games like winning 3 games out of 4. Handing out 1 point would treat tie games like winning 1 game out of 4. GM’s would be penalized rather than rewarded for building to tie.

    But you can make it even more exciting for fans and treat overtime wins like regulations wins. 2 points for regulation or overtime win. 1 point for a shootout win. 0 points for all losses. Too good to ever happen as too many GM’s are invested in building to tie.

  40. art vandelay says:

    I remember back in the spring of 1991, out with friends at the pub, cheap pitcher night, looking up at the TV ( was the only one paying attention) as Minnesota was eliminating Edmonton in the conference finals. For me, it was at that moment as time expired, despite them going again to the conference finals vs Chicago the next year, that the 80s party had ended, Gretzky was really really gone, the Oilers were now with the rank and file of the rest of the NHL, they just lost to Minnesota. Depressing man.

    I was at that game. Drove up from Medicine Hat.
    I would agree with all of your assessment. Except I would not use the word “depressing.”
    “Exhilarating” comes to mind.

  41. Woodguy says:

    Traktor:
    Gagner sucks.

    Hemsky sucks.

    Horcoff is is a 4th liner with less toughness than Robert Nilsson.

    See you at the draft.

    Thanks for that!

  42. Troll says:

    Gagner sucks.

    Hemsky sucks.

    Horcoff is is a 4th liner with less toughness than Robert Nilsson.

    See you at the draft.

  43. pboy says:

    The refs not making calls for Eberle, Hall and RNH was the party line on Stauffer’s show yesterday. He was talking about how tired he was of officials not making calls for the younger players in the league and then not explaining to them why they didn’t call a penalty or blowing the young players off before they could make their point. Obviously Mr Lowe has that same opinion but I couldn’t even see his hands working as Stauffer was talking!

  44. Jordan says:

    pboy,

    There are some very rude jokes that could be made with that set up.

    A good thing most of us here have more class than that…

  45. pboy says:

    Jordan: pboy, There are some very rude jokes that could be made with that set up.A good thing most of us here have more class than that…

    lol

  46. FastOil says:

    Woodguy:
    Ducey,

    You will notice that Gillis game up a smurf and brought in a Lucic.

    Hodson is 6’0 185.

    I don’t think that word means what you think it means.

    WG that is a small NHL player. The average scorer is just under 6’1″ 204 post lockout. The league average must be higher than that.
    http://oilersnation.com/2010/8/4/the-profile-of-a-top-30-scorer-pre-and-post-lockout

    Really it comes down to puck possession and battles, and I have heard Vigneault complaining for a while about those issues for his team, despite how good they are usually, thus the bigger bodies coming in.

    They really did get their asses kicked by the Bruins overall. It was a lowpoint for the NHL to me, ugly to watch (other than the Canucks losing of course). Does any other major league have such a discrepancy in officiating?

  47. cabbiesmacker says:

    DSF: Yeah, I think Gillis was surprised by the extent to which the officiating changed in the finals last season but has reacted accordingly.
    His acquisitions since then:
    Byron Bitz – 6’3″ 200
    Dale Weiss – 6’2″ 210
    Zack Kassian – 6’3″ 214
    Marc Gragnani – 6’2″ 205
    It appears the team has it figured out and, in last nights game against STL, they actually pounded the Blues all over the ice which, considering the Blues are built to do the same thing, was notable.

    And they gave up
    Raffi Torres – 6’0 218,
    Tanner Glass – 6’1 210
    Victor Oreskovich – 6’3 215
    Mikael Samuelsson – 6’2 218
    Christian Ehrhoff – 6’2 200

    Weiss hasn’t been in a game since Feb. 26th when he played a whopping 6:40. Woo
    Bitz sits with either a pulled foreskin or in the minors all year and was on waivers in Jan. Woooo
    Gragnani is hardly gritty but a nice offensive prospect
    Kassian is a kid. May be a Lucic equivalent in 2 years

    So what have they figured out exactly and how has Gillis reacted accordingly again?

    Canucks outhit the Blues 31 – 30 last night. Notable?

    Your Canucks didn’t get beat in the finals because refereeing changed all of a sudden. They were outscored 23 – 8 with Luongo posting an 8.05 GAA and .773 SV% in games 3,4, and 6 and 4 GA and .809 SV% in game 7. Even in Thomas’ 3 losses he posted a 1.68 GAA and .946 SV%

    I don’t grind on you like some others here DSF but cmon dude.

  48. Lucinius says:

    Re. Referees; I know I’m personally fed up with the system. You have a rule book that clearly states (“clearly” may not be the best word, admittedly) what can or cannot be penalized. You either go by the book or you don’t. What refs do to younger players technically amounts to (approved, even mandated) hazing. Now, I’m not actually against hazing in most cases, but with the size of the business and how unevenly applied it is in the NHL its just stupid.

    I don’t mind the fact that in the playoffs teams get more leniency in what is, and isn’t called. I still think they should be a bit more strict than they are currently, but I’m fine with a bit more leeway than in the regular season. But there has to be consistency within the seasons. All of the playoffs need to be reffed the same (and they aren’t) and the entire regular season needs to be reffed the same — and its not even close.

    As is, refs get to call who and what they like with little to no recourse available to the team or players. You can’t go after them in public and the private channels amount to nothing (as Slats has bitched about before). Worst of all, the main stream media approves of the current status of reffing, based on how they never seem to say a negative word about it.

    As a fan, its just infuriating because you never really know what is, and isn’t a penalty. Makes the game harder for new people to get into (most Americans I know who’ve tried to get into the game gave up due to reffing as a primary reason.. that and the whole ‘ice’ thing).

    Re. Renney and lines; retarded. How he can feel like its justified putting Petrell with Eberle and Paajarvi is in OKC is more than mind boggling, its almost stroke inducing. This is the kind of infuriating stupidity that MacT did far too often (JF Jaques with Hemsky!).

    Its a mark of a bad coach. He either no longer understands the game, his players or the current NHL. I don’t know. He generally comes across as an intelligent man, but with how badly he mangles lines and in juggling his lines (shit not working? lets screw it up more by putting people in positions they have a history of not producing in!).

    The Oilers’ problem is they keep getting coaches who haven’t adapted to the current NHL or have blinders on with too many players (and the wrong ones at that). Maybe its universal or how most coaches are, I don’t know — I don’t follow other teams closely enough to tell. I just know Petrell on top lines harkens back to worse days and its hardly his first glaring mistake as a coach.

  49. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: That its not just New Year’s but since the lock out.

    WG

    They’re not talking since the lockout, but about penalties called since New Year’s.

  50. spoiler says:

    Lois Lowe: From the article: Tapering down — History shows that average number of power plays per game tends to decline as the season goes along, and this season is no different. The 159 games played in October saw an average of 7.9 power plays; that figure dropped to 7.5 for the games played in November, 6.9 in December, 5.9 for January’s games and is down to 5.7 through the early stages of February.


    There have already been 28 games this season in which one team did not have a power play, and in five of those, the opposing team received only one advantage.

    It’s hardly conclusive but is illustrative of the point we’re raising.

    Lois, excellent, thanks. That’s much better than watching a couple of games and then based on that experience claiming that penalties are down over the past two months league-wide.

  51. PDO says:

    Woodguy
    Listening to the Oilers talk about being a puck possession team then seeing their actions reminds me when we taught a bunch of Korean students to sing pub songs in University.

    They words sounded right, but they had no clue what they were actually saying.

    No love for this? That’s hilarious WG.

    Oil win tonight. Public is hammering Dallas, lines moving against them… betting with the books tends to be profitable.

    Plus Barker isn’t playing.

  52. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: WG

    They’re not talking since the lockout, but about penalties called since New Year’s.

    Ohhhhhh.

    I must be short of cash because I’m having a hard time paying attention.

  53. DSF says:

    cabbiesmacker: And they gave up
    Raffi Torres – 6’0218,
    Tanner Glass – 6’1 210
    Victor Oreskovich – 6’3215
    Mikael Samuelsson – 6’2218
    Christian Ehrhoff – 6’2200

    Weiss hasn’t been in a game since Feb. 26th when he played a whopping 6:40. Woo
    Bitz sits with either a pulled foreskin or in the minors all year and was on waivers in Jan. Woooo
    Gragnani is hardly gritty but a nice offensive prospect
    Kassian is a kid. May be a Lucic equivalent in 2 years

    So what have they figured out exactly and how has Gillis reacted accordingly again?

    Canucks outhit the Blues 31 – 30 last night. Notable?

    Your Canucks didn’t get beat in the finals because refereeing changed all of a sudden. They were outscored 23 – 8 with Luongo posting an 8.05 GAA and .773 SV% in games 3,4, and 6 and 4 GA and.809 SV% in game 7. Even in Thomas’ 3 losses he posted a 1.68 GAA and .946 SV%

    I don’t grind on you like some others here DSF but cmon dude.

    Torres was moved because he wanted a two year deal.

    Glass was moved because he is not. A very good hockey player.

    Orescovitctch won’t hit

    Samuelsson is old and injury prone

    Ehrhohoff wanted a lifetime deal.

    Weiss has been out with a facial injury

    Bitz was sent down the day of the trade…looks like Gillis wants to see if Kassian is an upgrade

    Vancouver out hitting a tam like STL is notable.

    Vancouver lost for a few reasons but not scoring PP goals was certainly one of them.

  54. nathan says:

    “How he can feel like its justified putting Petrell with Eberle and Paajarvi is in OKC is more than mind boggling, its almost stroke inducing”

    Lucinius,

    If they told Renney to try one more thing in that spot before they;call up Omark, then did he make the move becomes he wants Petrell or because he wants Omark?

  55. Lucinius says:

    Nathan; I’d say because he wants Petrell — based on how both players have been handled since Renney arrived (and that’s not just on him).

    There’s really no defense for Petrell having spent the entire year with the Oilers given performance. Especially compared to Paajarvi, who in spite of his scoring woes has been much more solid defensively and puck possession orientated. Similarly, Lander was kept with the Oilers far too long (and I say this as a fan of the player).

    And Omark hasn’t really gotten a fair shake here in awhile (ever?)

  56. cabbiesmacker says:

    DSF:

    Vancouver lost for a few reasons but not scoring PP goals was certainly one of them.

    Yep. Not as deep and inferior goaltending. Def wasn’t reffing

  57. LMHF#1 says:

    Didn’t see this posted: http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2012/03/02/oilers-start-up-analytics-group-to-delve-into-moneypuck-issues/ Interesting…specifically this part:

    “The Oilers analytics team includes Cult of Hockey blogger Bruce McCurdy, University of Alberta professors Corey Wentzell, Bruce Matichuk and Randy Goebel and Daniel Haight of Darkhorse Analytics.

    Wilson says the group will pay attention to hockey discussions on the Oilogosphere, the hockey blogs on the Oilers which are often full of advanced stats analysis, some of it highly critical of the team.

    “Some of it is going to be extremely credible,” Wilson says of the blogs. “Maybe some pieces are less so, and you have to able to discern what is of value or not.””

    Rather odd way to operate isn’t that?

  58. Bos8 says:

    Petrell is getting moved up for one game, to see what happens. Yeesh. Which part is difficult to understand? If the two little jobbers score a couple of goals, we’ll have seppuku?. Wait a few hours. Over the top much?

  59. Bos8 says:

    Vancouver is getting bigger because they feel they can’t compete. Montreal had a whole bunch of fast little guys, didn’t go far, etc. There seems to be a pattern here.

  60. Woodguy says:

    LMHF#1:
    Didn’t see this posted: http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2012/03/02/oilers-start-up-analytics-group-to-delve-into-moneypuck-issues/ Interesting…specifically this part:

    “The Oilers analytics team includes Cult of Hockey blogger Bruce McCurdy, University of Alberta professors Corey Wentzell, Bruce Matichuk and Randy Goebel and Daniel Haight of Darkhorse Analytics.

    Wilson says the group will pay attention to hockey discussions on the Oilogosphere, the hockey blogs on the Oilers which are often full of advanced stats analysis, some of it highly critical of the team.

    “Some of it is going to be extremely credible,” Wilson says of the blogs. “Maybe some pieces are less so, and you have to able to discern what is of value or not.””

    Rather odd way to operate isn’t that?

    Hopefully the first step towards an anaylytics department at Oilers HQ.

    Well done Bruce!

    Anything you can share?

    DId Kev show you his 6 rings?

    6!

    As I stated earlier in the thread about the possession metrics thing, it doesn’t look like they are paying attention yet.

  61. Downright Fierce says:

    Totally OT, but I know LT will appreciate these pictures. I have a feeling they might find their way into a post or two:

    Lucy Lawless & Jeri Ryan as Xena & 7 of 9 — for TV Guide
    http://evillordzog.tumblr.com/post/13906995866/xena-and-seven-photset

    Despite the Stars having our number & Petrell getting the Jacques treatment… Goilers!

  62. Lowetide says:

    Congratulations to Bruce McCurdy. Very cool!

  63. cabbiesmacker says:

    Modano = nice player – total flake

    Like to hear Todd Nelson’s real opinion of the guy but he’s far too diplomatic to say.

  64. Marc says:

    Woodguy: Hopefully the first step towards an anaylytics department at Oilers HQ.

    Already done. From the post:

    “Lowe went to the new Oilers analytics advisory group to answer the question of how much Hemsky was worth”

    “The Oilers analytics group was set up by the team in the fall of 2011 to help the Oilers enter in to the new world of sports analytics”

    “Lowe, president of Oilers hockey operations, doesn’t believe that analytics in hockey is so advanced as they are in baseball, but with the Hemsky deal, and with other trades and deals going forward, he wants make sure the Oilers are exploring all avenues, so that will now include input from the analytics group made up of university professors, business analytics specialists and hockey bloggers with analytics expertise.

    The business world has been applying analytics to improve performance for years, Lowe says, so he wants to see if the same can be done in hockey. “I’ve always felt there’s something in analytics. It’s just a matter of getting to the bottom of it, getting enough hockey people and analytical people together to dig through it.”

    “On Friday at the sixth annual MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston, 500 people crammed into a convention hall room in Boston for the hockey analytics panel. …

    Eight of the 30 NHL teams sent representatives, including Oilers Asst. General Manager Ricky Olczyk and Nick Wilson, head of Oilers analytics.”

  65. Woodguy says:

    Marc: Already done.From the post:

    “Lowe went to the new Oilers analytics advisory group to answer the question of how much Hemsky was worth”

    “The Oilers analytics group was set up by the team in the fall of 2011 to help the Oilers enter in to the new world of sports analytics”

    “Lowe, president of Oilers hockey operations, doesn’t believe that analytics in hockey is so advanced as they are in baseball, but with the Hemsky deal, and with other trades and deals going forward, he wants make sure the Oilers are exploring all avenues, so that will now include input from the analytics group made up of university professors, business analytics specialists and hockey bloggers with analytics expertise.

    The business world has been applying analytics to improve performance for years, Lowe says, so he wants to see if the same can be done in hockey. “I’ve always felt there’s something in analytics. It’s just a matter of getting to the bottom of it, getting enough hockey people and analytical people together to dig through it.”

    “On Friday at the sixth annual MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston, 500 people crammed into a convention hall room in Boston for the hockey analytics panel. …

    Eight of the 30 NHL teams sent representatives, including Oilers Asst. General Manager Ricky Olczyk and Nick Wilson, head of Oilers analytics.”

    I read that too, but that’s a far cry from an analytics department with staff and a budget.

  66. nathan says:

    Bruce,

    If you are around what can you tell us about the volunteer group? Looking at those names they cover machine learning & biz, as well as academic & tech spin-off. Can you tell us if they are testing advance stat ideas against big data sets? Are they doing machine learning to generate and test ideas? Or are they just trying to catch up period to the advanced stat community? or just dealing with cap thinking.

  67. Marc says:

    Woodguy: I read that too, but that’s a far cry from an analytics department with staff and a budget.

    Really? Do you have any stats to back that up?

    :)

  68. BlacqueJacque says:

    This may sound silly, but I always despised Modano.

    He has rabbit teeth and a rabbit smile.

  69. FastOil says:

    Congrats Bruce – do us proud!

  70. FastOil says:

    After reading the Journal piece, the question has to be asked – if the management and analytic group got the Hemsky deal so right, how did they get the Gilbert deal so wrong? I guess bias supersedes evidence and reason.

  71. Lowetide says:

    FastOil: That would certainly appear to be the case. On the face of it, seems like a strange trade. Reminds me of the Niinimaa deal.

  72. Lois Lowe says:

    FastOil:
    After reading the Journal piece, the question has to be asked –if the management and analytic group got the Hemsky deal so right, how did they get the Gilbert deal so wrong? I guess bias supersedes evidence and reason.

    Asking for advice and listening to it are two very different things.

  73. "Steve Smith" says:

    nathan,

    Dan Haight I know used to be with the U of A School of Business (if he isn’t still) in operations management, which has a pretty strong statistical element. He’s a very smart guy with an area of expertise that I think is relevant here, though it certainly wouldn’t cover the whole gamut (unless his expertise is broader than I’d realized, which is possible). That certainly doesn’t fully answer your question, but it’s what I have to offer.

    (At the time I met him – eight or nine years ago – he was working on his PhD – not sure if he ever finished it, but I hope so because “Dr. Haight” sounds exactly like “Dr. Hate”, which is awesome.)

  74. "Steve Smith" says:

    FastOil,

    I still think, based purely on conjecture, that Gilbert himself had something to do with it. If it was really a management initiative, where was the media vilification?

  75. Woodguy says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    nathan,

    Dan Haight I know used to be with the U of A School of Business (if he isn’t still) in operations management, which has a pretty strong statistical element.He’s a very smart guy with an area of expertise that I think is relevant here, though it certainly wouldn’t cover the whole gamut (unless his expertise is broader than I’d realized, which is possible).That certainly doesn’t fully answer your question, but it’s what I have to offer.

    (At the time I met him – eight or nine years ago – he was working on his PhD – not sure if he ever finished it, but I hope so because “Dr. Haight” sounds exactly like “Dr. Hate”, which is awesome.)

    I think Dan posts under the SN “Traktor”

    note: I don’t really think that.

  76. russ99 says:

    nathan:
    “How he can feel like its justified putting Petrell with Eberle and Paajarvi is in OKC is more than mind boggling, its almost stroke inducing”

    Lucinius,

    If they told Renneyto try one more thing in that spot before they;call up Omark, then did he make the move becomes he wants Petrell or because he wants Omark?

    Nathan:

    If one (or both) of Paajarvi and Omark aren’t back up here by Tuesday or shortly after, with Monday as clear day allowing them to play in the AHL playoffs, it will mean 1 of 2 things:

    1. This is a ploy by the Oilers to keep Omark’s and Paajarvi’s potential RFA salaries low as they know the kid line will need to be paid in a year, and the Swedish kids are good cover for the top end of the roster.

    2. Maybe there is a North America vs. Europe and/or size vs. skill bias in the organization.

    Or maybe the front office is as stupid as some fan circles seem to think…

  77. Woodguy says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    FastOil,

    I still think, based purely on conjecture, that Gilbert himself had something to do with it.If it was really a management initiative, where was the media vilification?

    The media were never Gilbert fans.

    A tough, stay at home Dman is right in their bailiwick.

  78. Woodguy says:

    russ99: Nathan:

    If one (or both) of Paajarvi and Omark aren’t back up here by Tuesday or shortly after, with Monday as clear day allowing them to play in the AHL playoffs, it will mean 1 of 2 things:

    1. This is a ploy by the Oilers to keep Omark’s and Paajarvi’s potential RFA salaries low as they know the kid line will need to be paid in a year.

    2. Maybe there is a North America vs. Europe and/or size vs. skill bias in the organization.

    Or maybe the front office is as stupid as some fan circles seem to think…

    I haven’t looked into myself, but the hubub around Omark is that if he plays 4 NHL games he needs to clear waivers to go back down. You’d lose him for sure.

    I may be wrong on this. I’ve been paying 30% attention to this stuff today and just skimmed the info.

  79. russ99 says:

    Woodguy: I haven’t looked into myself, but the hubub around Omark is that ifhe plays 4 NHL games he needs to clear waivers to go back down.You’d lose him for sure.

    I may be wrong on this.I’ve been paying 30% attention to this stuff today and just skimmed the info.

    I’m aware of the Omark waiver status, but Is that still the case even after the NHL regular season is over? I thought not.

    And if the OIlers keep him in OKC the rest of the year to skirt the waiver issue, good luck getting him under contract next season.

    He’d flee to Russia or Sweden and there goes a potential top 6 player or good trade chip, not to mention not setting a good precedent for Paajarvi’s contract the following summer.

  80. DSF says:

    russ99: Nathan:

    If one (or both) of Paajarvi and Omark aren’t back up here by Tuesday or shortly after, with Monday as clear day allowing them to play in the AHL playoffs, it will mean 1 of 2 things:

    1. This is a ploy by the Oilers to keep Omark’s and Paajarvi’s potential RFA salaries low as they know the kid line will need to be paid in a year, and the Swedish kids are good cover for the top end of the roster.

    2. Maybe there is a North America vs. Europe and/or size vs. skill bias in the organization.

    Or maybe the front office is as stupid as some fan circles seem to think…

    Or perhaps it’s just that they’re not NHL players.

  81. Ribs says:

    Ron Wilson just fired. Woa.

  82. Woodguy says:

    Ribs:
    Ron Wilson just fired. Woa.

    November 29th is Burke’s 4th anniversary in TO.

    Imagine if the OIlers make the playoffs before the Leafs?

    Front page of the Paper

    “LOWE BESTS BURKE IN TEAM BUILDING”

    Haha!

  83. Woodguy says:

    DSF: Or perhaps it’s just that they’re not NHL players.

    There’s really not nearly enough information to come to that conclusion, and much more information that deems your statement false.

  84. sliderule says:

    I have no facts to back this up but I would think Toronto and Montreal get the favorable calls at home.

    This is just my perception

    The crowds in both arenas are way more vocal than at Rexall.I think the refs respond to this

    What say you guys?

  85. DSF says:

    Woodguy: There’s really not nearly enough information to come to that conclusion, and much more information that deems your statement false.

    Do tell.

    Last time I looked Paajarvi had scored 2G and 8 points in 41 GP, was -7 and had a shooting percentage approaching absolute zero.

    That’s quite a bit of information.

  86. Woodguy says:

    So Ron Wilson gets fired after saying his GM failed at getting goaltending.

    I think Renney putting 37 at LW with 93 and 14 is telling the GM, I don’t have a LW to play with these guys.

    He never gave SIdeburns a chance though.

    That’s his failing because he was on the roster.

    You can’t blame the coach for the roster (i.e. 57 being in EDM all year…v4.0 called him “a glue guy”, heady stuff for a 4th line rook)

    You can blame the coach for how he deploys the roster.

    I think these last 20 game better show Renney can coach to win.

  87. Lowetide says:

    Wilson is a hard ass and Carlyle is even more severe. Interesting choice. The beatings will continue until morale improves.

  88. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Wilson is a hard ass and Carlyle is even more severe. Interesting choice. The beatings will continue until morale improves.

    Reminds me of Lombardi changing out Murray for Sutter.

    One is a defense first, serious, stern coach.

    The other is the other.

  89. DeadmanWaking says:

    There’s a certain type of pool player when boxed out from brinker bonanza will opt for the macho “brown condom stuffed full of walnuts” ricochet pin-ball lottery shot (to borrow how Martin Amis bags the Sperminator as related via Hitch 22). Eberle is not that guy. I suspect he never takes a low percentage shot except when licking his lips for a high percentage rebound. He never shoots at the water bottle unless he can see it. (Memo that JFJ never received.)

    The problem with a shot-percentage statistic is that it’s self-normalizing. A guy getting a lot of looks at 20% is soon fighting through hooks and crooks. To keep the defense honest, they need to fear your dish as much as your dash. The player adjusts.

    From Having a purpose at the plate:

    “Patience means getting your pitch depending on the strategy at the moment,” said one American League advance scout, making way too much sense for so early in the conversation. “It might mean getting a walk if you need baserunners. It might mean waiting for a pitch up in the zone that you can drive or low if you’re a low-ball hitter. It’s very situation- and individual-specific.”

    Definitely over the years Eberle will play to need and his stats will follow.

    It’s true that in baseball’s earliest days–and we mean earliest–taking pitches was rare, even considered unmanly. “It was the unwritten law,” 1870s superstar George Wright once said … [but soon] primordial sabermetricians counted how often the Cincinnati Reds swung at the first pitch and rejoiced at how they’d hit .425 when doing so, glaringly misinterpreting the results. (Almost all hitters fare far better when swinging at the first pitch–not because it’s the first pitch, but because it’s one they’ve decided they like.)

    No wonder this has taken a century to gain traction. Witch doctors with bones in their noses snorting powder out of abacuses held upside down. Sheesh.

    Every pitcher has a best pitch. Let him get that out of his system, and unless it is a third strike, take it. Take a strike. Take two strikes to get the ball you want to hit … Letting strikes go by when they look good is a difficult subject to discuss with anxious players.

    LOL. For every player who broke through on this advice, there were two twitching cadavers who fell by the wayside. Eberle is not an anxious player. He’ll pass on two cheladas if he smells three cheladas. Why pump preemptively for a glimmer of daylight when the goalie is perfectly poised to flash the leather? Slow down and take another look. The ice man can do it. He’s a top-drawer opportunist. That will always be there.

    It’s hard to take more of the shots that score, but a special breed of player has the knack for taking fewer that don’t. If I’m right, against sturdy defense you might see his shot total decline more than his shooting percentage as he takes other options. I don’t think he’s afraid to pump the shotgun on reflex when he’s got the jump, but I don’t think he pumps the shotgun on jitters when he doesn’t. That’s just a turn-over misclassified.

    Epilog:

    Suddenly after writing that I felt a burning need to investigate the game theory of gun fights. In Hollywood, every gunslinger is an ice man, but surely it can’t be best to wait until your adversary initiates. How does that work? Perhaps the mutual show of nerves benefits the victor in the aftermath, becoming more notorious for his steely calm and hence facing fewer cocksure challengers (the Dread Pirate Roberts program). The malingering sneers might actually be a form of cooperation in the deadly stand-off.

    I didn’t find a result on that, but I found this instead, which is pretty good:
    Truels, or how game theory may explain survival of the weakest

    Each person has the option of intentionally missing.

    Ah, the Greedo protocol.

    Presh Talwalkar neglects to point out the difficulty of reliable signalling or how these gun sharps get themselves talked into a dusty three-way plug-fest. If Adam is drinking heavily before the fight, it’s not because he’s a coward, it’s because he can do the math. If they can all do the math, they’re going to need a bushel of bullets. Or maybe the bartender retires on a small fortune made from slinging a passel of virgin Mickey Finns: everyone is trying to look drunk without becoming drunk. Eyebrows arch accusingly. Tempers flare. Shots are fired by remarkably steady hands.

  90. Woodguy says:

    I really dislike Mike Ribeiro.

    He might be the ideal 2nd line C behind RNH for the Oilers.

    If he was 28 and not 32 I’d try to trade for him.

    Plays tough minutes and comes out ahead and has for years.

  91. fuzzy muppet says:

    Great, Hall is hurt.

    watch out Columbus!!!

  92. fuzzy muppet says:

    Back already!

    Hello 29th!

  93. fuzzy muppet says:

    Petrell looked absolutely clueless that first shift with 93-14.

  94. Ribs says:

    fuzzy muppet: Petrell looked absolutely clueless that first shift with 93-14.

    That was pretty comical. I could hear Eberle’s thoughts on that rush.

  95. whale says:

    Petty looks awesome !

  96. Lois Lowe says:

    Gilbert -1 in 25 minutes in a 6-0 loss tonight.

  97. Lowetide says:

    Oilers look more settled tonight, Barker probably won’t see a lot of the ice. btw, where IS Peckham? He’s been out forever and you’ve got to wonder what else is wrong (aside from the puck to the face).

  98. fuzzy muppet says:

    get petrell off that line. Eager needs a shot.

  99. PDO says:

    I really like Petrell for what he is, but why is he on the team over 91, 23 and Harty?

  100. whale says:

    Barker will play if the lottery is in jeopardy.

    Question: will Petrell get picked up next year?

  101. Lowetide says:

    PDO: My guess? The Oilers are doing it the way Detroit does it, and that means the entry level deals are going to be spent in OKC.

  102. hunter1909 says:

    Not Mike Modano!

    Souray getting a hard time.

    MEMO TO STARS FANS: get ready to say the names Hall, Eberle, and Nugent-Hopkins a lot.

    Cool new oilers: Petry, cool player
    Shultz: cool new player, took good penalty

    Anyone know how Tom Gilbert was tonight?

    No injuries tonight for any result please.

  103. harrigan says:

    On the Gilbert trade, maybe it’s just Lowe and Tambo thinking: “We’ve got to make a trade to make people believe that we’re actually doing something. We’ve got to protect our phoney-baloney jobs!”

  104. Woodguy says:

    Petrell is getting a game of cherry minutes as a thank you for coming over to the NHL for a year (NHL salary doesn’t hurt either)

    Also sends a message.

    Unfortunately his blind spot for 91 ruins his message.

  105. pboy says:

    I’d be surprised if Barker sees anymore playing time this season. Unless there’s an injury, I think he stays in the PB.

  106. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy: Unfortunately his blind spot for 91 ruins his message.

    That’s the reason why I’m happy that Pajaarvi is in the AHL.

    Hopefully they really will not renew this contract. Of Renney’s. If Mr. Katz hands Tom a nice plum thank-you job for services to the tank rendered I’ll be happy.

    Only a lunatic GM brings him back next season.

  107. danny says:

    Captain Bucky O’hare. Need I say more?

  108. danny says:

    Oh yeah, as much as its hard to believe that the Oilers have truely embraced metrics, and to witness them make the moves they do or dont do, is it that hard to admit their involvement is most definitely a step in the right direction?

    Congrats Bruce. Don’t pull a pancakes penner and view this as your end goal.

  109. danny says:

    Oh yeah x2, LT just wanna make sure you got my emails regarding the lowetide,ca address. havent been available much the past couple weeks so ill make sure i can straighten your stuff out this weekend,

  110. Lowetide says:

    Danny All good it has been crazy for me too

  111. Woodguy says:

    Dvorak is the best player on the ice.

    91 turning into Dvorak isn’t the worst thing in the world.

  112. whale says:

    Oil playing good hockey.

  113. danny says:

    anyone else sorely reminiscent of the 02/03 playoffs when we see Dvorak and the stars?

  114. danny says:

    Lowetide:
    Danny All good it has been crazy for me too

    Thumbs up!

  115. fuzzy muppet says:

    Hemsky goes offsides more than any player I can remember.

    It’s these kind of plays that keep him from becoming the player he could be. Too lazy

  116. Woodguy says:

    DVO!!!!

  117. danny says:

    Dvoraks first goal in 40 games.

    Set your sights MPS. You can do it.

  118. Ducey says:

    danny:
    Dvoraks first goal in 40 games.

    Set your sights MPS. You can do it.

    Maybe he can get a few in the AHL first.

  119. Lucinius says:

    Belanger with the lazy play.

    Outside of face offs I’m really, really disappointed in his performance this year. And another two years of him. Hopefully he gets it on track for next year..

  120. Woodguy says:

    danny:
    Dvoraks first goal in 40 games.

    Set your sights MPS. You can do it.

    Awesome! PRV is like tied with him or something now.

  121. danny says:

    Ducey: Maybe he can get a few in the AHL first.

    I’ve been on the trade MPS wagon since July, but what do I know.

  122. Woodguy says:

    Fucking Hatcher is really slowing this game down.

  123. Woodguy says:

    Benn out there vs. 4th line.

    Well done Renney.

  124. Lucinius says:

    Potter…

    Sigh.

    Even when we restrict the opponents to next to no shots we shoot ourselves in the foot.

  125. fuzzy muppet says:

    Park Belanger.

    He’s caused both goals against

  126. Lowetide says:

    lol.

  127. Woodguy says:

    Lots of individual efforts, especially Hall.

    They look like a 30th place team playing the 29th place team.

    Just awful.

  128. Woodguy says:

    I’m waiting for OTC’s post game presser to hear him going on and on about trying to pass the puck into the net.

  129. rich says:

    Really hard to get upset about this when the coach puts an offensive dynamo like Petrell on the same line with the Nuge and Eberle, and MPS is in OKC.

    Renney has lost me this year. I’m tired of all these freaking Canucks ex-patriots coming in and screwing up my favorite team.

  130. Woodguy says:

    fuzzy muppet:
    Park Belanger.

    He’s caused both goals against

    Hey, hey, hey!

    He’s excited about the rebuild and wants to be around for the 3rd year dammit!

  131. Woodguy says:

    Bruce better starting logging futureexcitement/60 for v4.0

  132. Woodguy says:

    Apparently those goals were 89′s fault.

    20 between 4 and 83 now.

  133. Smarmy says:

    Uggh this is shitty hockey

  134. jake70 says:

    Some serious slop out there tonight. Pull the trigger someone, shoot the puck!

  135. hunter1909 says:

    Isn’t the reason Dvorak wasn’t brought back, was because he was said to be washed up by management?

    oilers were on a 30 minute near-powerplay before Stars scored, they played really good hockey imo, until Khabibulin took the Cam Barker memo Renney sent him in the 1st intermission.

    Funniest Play by Play Moment for Entire Game: “Chance for Horcoff!” with 5 minutes left in the 2nd. Horcoff was in the slot at the time.

  136. cabbiesmacker says:

    When I forecast Petry to be our second best D by the end of the year I knew it was a bit of a risk and wasn’t thinking it would come at the expense of Gilbert being moved. Kid could actually be #1 at the rate he’s climbing.

    I need someone to tell me sincerely how tradfing Gilbert for Schultz makes the slightest bit of sense. We got smaller, slower, less physical and sacrificed offense for what? Is being a “good guy” in the locker room worth an $800k saving over two years?

    Hemsky? Wow. Has to be the king of “taking a play to 90% then fizzling.” Pretty easy to see why management had some concerns and why the deal ended up being what it is. Sad when Petrell and Eager have as many good scoring chances in a game.

    WG? No offense but when you made your bet with DSF you were really counting on the kids to shoulder the load yes? I expect Hall, Eberle, Gagner and RNH to be out with severe dislocations by December.

    Sad times when a bum like Dvorak lights the lamp.

  137. Ribs says:

    I hope no one wrote TSN to make sure this game aired tonight. Just awful.

    Should we be worried that Schultz isn’t playing much? He had a penalty, but still…What did he average in Minny?

  138. Lowetide says:

    Oilers have had nights like this for years, but the run n’ gun group shows up more often. VERY encouraged by Tambellini’s telling Dreger (Dreger said) that they are looking for possibly TWO defensemen this summer.

    Very good. Very very good.

  139. Smarmy says:

    Well if I had to convince you that Schultz is a more physical player then I’d say you should start by watching hockey but I don’t feel the need to tell you your business.

  140. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Oilers have had nights like this for years, but the run n’ gun group shows up more often. VERY encouraged by Tambellini’s telling Dreger (Dreger said) that they are looking for possibly TWO defensemen this summer.

    Very good. Very very good.

    So he wants to get 1, maybe 2 Dmen, and starts off by trading the most rare type (multi-tool Top 4 RH)

    Good plan.

  141. Ribs says:

    I think Hemsky tired himself out practising his one-timers after practice.

  142. cabbiesmacker says:

    Smarmy:
    Well if I had to convince you that Schultz is a more physical player then I’d say you should start by watching hockey but I don’t feel the need to tell you your business.

    Big difference between watching and seeing whats real I guess. As you were.

  143. Ribs says:

    …That or he hurt his shoulder when he felll down practicing those one-timers. Nice clip, TSN. Made me laugh.

  144. LMHF#1 says:

    Woodguy: Hopefully the first step towards an anaylytics department at Oilers HQ.

    Well done Bruce!

    Anything you can share?

    DId Kev show you his 6 rings?

    6!

    As I stated earlier in the thread about the possession metrics thing, it doesn’t look like they are paying attention yet.

    Is this actually a good thing yet? I want to see some qualifications and some notion that the choices made here are sensical and were vetted.

  145. danny says:

    Woodguy: So he wants to get 1, maybe 2 Dmen, and starts off by trading the most rare type (multi-tool Top 4 RH)

    Good plan.

    v4.0 traded Paul Coffey?

  146. rich says:

    Maybe they’ll bring Souray back this summer?

    I jest, but the record of these guys bringing in proven NHL d-men has gone from being very good to very bad over the last decade. Which makes the trade of Gilbert just that much more perplexing.

  147. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: So he wants to get 1, maybe 2 Dmen, and starts off by trading the most rare type (multi-tool Top 4 RH)

    Good plan.

    Much better than elevating kids, which I’m still concerned about btw. I’d say it’s even money that Ryan Murray is in the opening night lineup for 12-13.

  148. danny says:

    My guess is that considering the arguable lateral move of Gilbert for Shultz, there is definitely a larger plan which facilitates the need for a gator type. Not sure its via the draft, maybe its UFA driven… nonetheless, we cant trade Chorney for Shultz.

  149. cabbiesmacker says:

    Smarmy:
    Well if I had to convince you that Schultz is a more physical player then I’d say you should start by watching hockey but I don’t feel the need to tell you your business.

    Schultz – 60 hits in 63 games

    Gilbert – 56 hits on 50 games

  150. Ribs says:

    How to stop the Oilers 101: Smother the Perimeter

  151. Lois Lowe says:

    A very gentlemanly affair again tonight.

  152. fuzzy muppet says:

    Agreed LT.

    The offense isn’t great but he’s on really shitty team.

    Kid can skate and makes a nice first pass. It just stinks that they’ll pin so much hop[e on a kid that has to learn at the highest level.

    Reinhart’s size is intriguing, but if Murray is Neidermayer lite, I don’t see how they can pass

  153. Woodguy says:

    danny: v4.0 traded Paul Coffey?

    Bobby Orr actually, keep up.

  154. FastOil says:

    Maybe Bruce can pull a coup before it’s too late. If he doesn’t become dictator.

  155. Lucinius says:

    Ferraro with probably the most apt description. This game is like watching giant sized peewee players go at it.

  156. Woodguy says:

    danny:
    My guess is that considering the arguable lateral move of Gilbert for Shultz, there is definitely a larger plan which facilitates the need for a gator type. Not sure its via the draft, maybe its UFA driven… nonetheless, we cant trade Chorney for Shultz.

    Gator types are not that tough to get.

    Certainly don’t cost a Gilbert.

  157. FastOil says:

    Slowly responding to LT’s comment

  158. danny says:

    Woodguy: Bobby Orr actually, keep up.

    Its good to see someone make fun of themselves :)

  159. FastOil says:

    danny,

    Maybe could have traded Gilbert + for Weber? Better trade a good player for a better player or might as well keep them.

  160. Woodguy says:

    danny: Its good to see someone make fun of themselves

    You can argue that Gilbert is a more complete and valuable Dman than Goligoski and he cost Neal.

    If you want a Shultz/Fogolin/Gator type fine.

    Just don’t pay a Gilbert to get him.

  161. PunjabiOil says:

    1. Congrats to Bruce
    2. Hope the Oilers get Tyler Dellow and Vic Ferrari in that mix of group.
    3. I remember Dan Haight. He was a semi-prof/TA 7-8 years ago in one of my classes at the U of A. Certainly has that operations management background.
    4. Better late than never – lets hope they continue pursuing it. Putting the pieces together, it appears teams like San Jose and Boston have been doing it for years (and keeping it confidential).

  162. McSorely Head says:

    One thing that strikes me about Schultz is that he’s a Smurf sized D-man. Not only did Gibby hit more apparently, getting hit by Schultz must be like getting hit by RNH.

  163. danny says:

    Woodguy: Gator types are not that tough to get.

    Certainly don’t cost a Gilbert.

    I was a huge fanboy for Gilbert 2.0 this season. Pretending trading him is a travesty, requires context. Trading him for Cory Cross? Yup. Shultz? Not so much.

    But yea….

  164. fuzzy muppet says:

    STAY ONSIDE HEMSKY!

  165. Wolfie says:

    I’m not sure how the Oilers are supposed to compete when the league has so obviously changed the definition of what exactly merits a penalty. This is bloody ridiculous. It’s not just against the Oilers it’s league wide and it’s a bloody joke. Ref the game like it’s supposed to be. I don’t pay money to watch guys tackled in front of the net.

    I know there was talk about how Hall was getting on the refs. IMO he doesn’t do it enough. Gretzky was up and down refs all game long if he wasn’t getting calls.

  166. Ribs says:

    fuzzy muppet: STAY ONSIDE HEMSKY!

    Bahahaha…Oy…

  167. Lucinius says:

    If Smid gets hurt long term I think I’d weep.

  168. danny says:

    Just to be clear, personally I would have kept gilbert based on his play this season.

    I don’t think its a cut and dry decision though until we know the full spectrum.

  169. Woodguy says:

    danny: I was a huge fanboy for Gilbert 2.0 this season. Pretending trading him is a travesty, requires context. Trading him for Cory Cross? Yup. Shultz? Not so much.

    But yea….

    Jesus Danny, you are characterizing my opposition to this trade way worse than I am actually saying.

    I’ve stated over and over that they traded a very good player for a good player.

    You’re the only person throwing around “travesty” “coffey” and that other crap and you are attributing it to me and it pisses me off because I’m not saying those things.

    Argue with what I actually type, not your characterization of what you think I am thinking please.

  170. fuzzy muppet says:

    Great stat by Reaugh.

    Oilers have more giveaways than shots,

  171. fuzzy muppet says:

    Tom Renney is gone at seasons end.

    This game is a travesty

  172. Woodguy says:

    Petrell is the extra skater.

    So awesome.

  173. Lucinius says:

    I know he wasn’t at fault there, but…

    Extra man is Petrell?

    Seriously?

  174. danny says:

    Woodguy: Jesus Danny, you are characterizing my opposition to this trade way worse than I am actually saying.

    I’ve stated over and over that they traded a very good player for a good player.

    You’re the only person throwing around “travesty” “coffey” and that other crap and you are attributing it to me and it pisses me off because I’m not saying those things.

    Argue with what I actually type, not your characterization of what you think I am thinking please.

    Woodguy, I think you’re underestimating the body of your work. I read this place every day. I dont feel im mischaracterizing your prose whatsoever.

  175. Woodguy says:

    Woot!

    Garbage time point for Hemsky!!

    AH – 2pts
    DB – 3pts

  176. McSorely Head says:

    Pull the goalie!

  177. Woodguy says:

    danny: Woodguy, I think you’re underestimating the body of your work. I read this place every day. I dont feel im mischaracterizing your prose whatsoever.

    GIve me direct quotes please.

    You cannot infer anything if you’ve never heard my voice.

  178. Wolfie says:

    Good on the Oiler bench for giving it to the officials. You can’t honestly tell me that an NHL team can play an entire game without some sort of infraction.

  179. Woodguy says:

    danny: Woodguy, I think you’re underestimating the body of your work. I read this place every day. I dont feel im mischaracterizing your prose whatsoever.

    Direct quotes from me where I characterize the Gilbert trade like you say I am.

    To make my above post clear.

  180. Lowetide says:

    Okay. Now. You’re telling me Paajarvi, Omark and Hartikainen aren’t good enough to play in front of a few guys out there tonight? come ON!!!

  181. TheOtherJohn says:

    Lowetide:
    Oilers have had nights like this for years, but the run n’ gun group shows up more often. VERY encouraged by Tambellini’s telling Dreger (Dreger said) that they are looking for possibly TWO defensemen this summer.

    Very good. Very very good.

    Course if they resign Barker they only need to find one more D. Did you know he was a former 3rd overall pick

  182. FastOil says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    FastOil,

    I still think, based purely on conjecture, that Gilbert himself had something to do with it.If it was really a management initiative, where was the media vilification?

    True I suppose they thought they made a good trade. Too bad they didn’t listen to the council of the wise (assuming they knew it was wrong).

  183. McSorely Head says:

    If advance stats fed into the Hemsky deal, did they contribute to the Gilbert trade? My gut feeling is that Kevo just liked the cut of his jib.

  184. danny says:

    WHat defenseman would have been fair value for gilbert? thats not a rhetorical question. What do you think his value is?

  185. iwin76 says:

    WTF is with the D pairings? Why did Petry play 24 min (in a game with no PP), Potter 21 min (and a tidy -3), and Schultz 14 min? Why would you trade your best D for a guy your going to play on the third pairing? Please tell me he had an equipment issue or something. I get that he had two penalties, but he still had the least ES time.

  186. TheOtherJohn says:

    Danny

    May be wrong but think?? WG simply repeatedly says Gilbert has wider range of skills than Schultz.

    I agree with him and, in context, Jason Smith was one of my favorite Oilers. What is puzzling is that many of the supporters of this trade, justify it on the basis of future pieces to be added o the Oil. Either Whitney’s ankle improves or we have to Go out and find a RH puck moving D man. They are generally in short supply and we had one and traded him for an asset that is more plentiful and easier to acquire

    Musta been driven by new analytics group ;-))

    Congrats Bruce!

  187. Woodguy says:

    danny:
    WHat defenseman would have been fair value for gilbert? thats not a rhetorical question. What do you think his value is?

    I’d have to look.

    RH multi-tool, good first pass, can play toughs. Doesn’t have to pay powerplay tough, Gilbert isn’t that good at it, no shot.

    RH is key, there are lots of good LH Dmen.

  188. gogliano says:

    Projected points:

    edm 72
    mon 76
    car 78
    nyi 78

  189. Woodguy says:

    Zbynek Michalek is probably a close comp.

    I’d take him over Gilbert though.

  190. mattwatt says:

    Lowetide:
    Okay. Now. You’re telling me Paajarvi, Omark and Hartikainen aren’t good enough to play in front of a few guys out there tonight? come ON!!!

    Now don’t allow DSF to tell you how wrong you are Lowetide. As he stated, likely that Omark and MPS do not belong in the NHL, let alone in front of these guys!

    (Had to for all the nonsense he has spewed of late. Sunday I will put a more definitive post why Omark and MPS are better options than the current 4th line. Sad part is, it won’t be hard. At all.)

  191. Bar_Qu says:

    I hate watching the Oilers work their way down to last again. It’s so unnecessary ( much like the deadline move).

    OTOH, if Renney keeps coaching like this we will see Kruger behind the bench full time next year. it was an interesting waste of an opportunity to play a good game by ensuring no line had the right balance of players. I have ragged on him before, but Renney simply continues to make line decisions that are confusing & counterproductive, and I can’t give him the benefit of the doubt anymore.

    I hate to say it, but the sooner the season is over, the better. Ugh.

  192. bookje says:

    WG – I don’t get why you think the Gilbert – Schultz trade is the worst Oiler trade since Messier and Buekeboom were dealt for Nichols, Rice and Debrusk.

    I, for one, prefer to see it as the Oilers trading a very good player for another good player with a different skillset.

  193. McSorely Head says:

    The question is, what was the motivation behind the Gilbert trade? Nothing obvious, like the risk of losing him to UFA looming. So why trade? The only reasonable conclusion is that management thought it was a trade up, but really?

  194. McSorely Head says:

    Flames give up goal to go down 3-2 with 46 seconds left vs Ducks. Ha!

  195. Woodguy says:

    bookje:
    WG – I don’t get why you think the Gilbert – Schultz trade is the worst Oiler trade since Messier and Buekeboom were dealt for Nichols, Rice and Debrusk.

    I, for one,prefer to see it as the Oilers trading a very good player for another good player with a different skillset.

    Never change Bookie.

  196. Lois Lowe says:

    I can’t imagine the Petrell-Eberle experience lasts longer than one game. I, like LT, think that Hartikainen is a good fit on a soft comps line with RNH and Eberle. He brings a lot of the same attributes as Petrell does, without being Petrell.

  197. Ducey says:

    Lowetide:
    Okay. Now. You’re telling me Paajarvi, Omark and Hartikainen aren’t good enough to play in front of a few guys out there tonight? come ON!!!

    Uh, they were not good enough to win in OKC tonight, so I am not sure they beat Dallas…

    Great last minute choke by the Flamers tonight!

  198. Lucinius says:

    A friend of mine says Gilbert had broached a trade to Minny with management a couple weeks before the deadline. He’s likely full of shit (the only credence I can give him is he gets me signed Oiler stuff all the time — so at the very least I won’t say it to his face :)

    Truth is we’ll likely never know why the Gilbert trade occurred. Maybe there was more to it, maybe there isn’t. Maybe Lowe and Tambellini thought Gilbert was taking the Trio to the wrong kinds of movies on off days.

    With this club, this league, you never know.

    Game was shit tonight. Oilers needed a powerplay early on, I think to inject life into it, but the league has decided to reduce calls — to the degree the media are commenting on it (Ferraro brought it up earlier during the game) despite more clutching and grabbing going on.

    How Paajarvi and Omark don’t rate on this team is beyond stupefying. Belanger with a bad game. Potter wasn’t great and led to the second goal. Eberle with a really bad give away when the game was all but over to seal it for Dallas.

    Hemsky and Hall need to work on timing. Still, they were among the better Oilers, I thought, but the team needs to do less passing of the puck and more shooting. Potter has been especially guilty of this since his injury. The powerplay has driven me (and likely Hemsky) nuts with him at the point.

    I remember one powerplay where he’d set up for the shot, get the pass from Hemsky.. pass it back. And this would happen 5-6 times before Hemsky decided to simply take a low percentage shot (and Potter had at least two open lanes to shoot in during the exchange).

    Petrell on the top line doesn’t work (surprise!), because like others of his ilk that have gotten such auditions.. they don’t have the hands for it. They can crash and bang in the corners all they want but you need hands and complimentary skill sets.

    Renney needs to go. New coach would probably be as bad, but.. ugh. I just don’t have the same kind of patience for repeated blunders by a coach these days. Its not like it was back in the days of yore where we had little to no access to the advanced stats…

  199. Woodguy says:

    All the guys I like as comps are LH. (Vlasic, Timmonen) (I take Timmonen over Gilbert, but Gilbert over Vlasic)

    RH who do what he does are not that common.

    Scarcity helps value.

  200. Woodguy says:

    Robidas maybe. I take Gilbert over Robidas.

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