G65 Oilers at Ducks
We’re told Ryan Smyth is working on a contract extension now, and when that is complete this 29th overall club is going to have 15 players under contract for 2012-13. Add RFA’s Sam Gagner, Jeff Petry, Devan Dubnyk and Theo Peckham and that’s 19 confirmed survivors. Can the Edmonton Oilers seriously return that many players from the disaster that was 11-12?
Here’s the roster at this time for 12-13 (I’ve thrown in some minor leaguers)
- Goal: Devan Dubnyk (RFA), Nikolai Khabibulin
- Defense: Ryan Whitney, Ladislav Smid, Jeff Petry (RFA), Nick Schultz, Andy Sutton, Corey Potter, Theo Peckham (RFA)
- Center: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Sam Gagner (RFA), Shawn Horcoff, Eric Belanger, Anton Lander
- Left Wing: Taylor Hall, Ryan Smyth, Ben Eager, Ryan Jones
- Right Wing: Ales Hemsky, Jordan Eberle, Magnus Paajarvi, Linus Omark (RFA), Teemu Hartikainen
That’s 23. I’ve excluded Cam Barker, Lennart Petrell and Darcy Hordichuk. What would a well run team do?
- Bite the final year bullet on Khabibulin and find a co#1 goaltender to share the land with Dubnyk. Ben Bishop or better.
- Plan on sending Corey Potter down and add a guy like Tom Gilbert.
- If possible, upgrade the 6-7 spot over Peckham. And fill that slot with the idea that if Whitney’s problems continue that player might have to join Smid, Petry and Schultz in the top 4.
- Find a new home for a roster winger and make room for the new Fernando Dvorak.
Sound about right?
Taylor Hall’s injury status will no doubt get an update today, but I’ve checked the AHL transactions at the main website and there is no recall at this point. We wait.
Plan on sending Corey Potter down and add a guy like Tom Gilbert.
Why can’t we have nice things?
Expect a split from these next two games in California. Go tank!
1 – Lose Dubnyk, not Khabibulin. Dubnyk’s never going to be an NHL starter, unless it’s a 29th place team.
2 – Find 2 NHL defencemen. Please.
3 – Replace Tom Renney. Like in NY, he’s no longer effective with the team. Krueger started showing him up after running the bench within a week.
4 – Darwin style(which I think they’re doing anyway), see who surprisingly comes out of training camp like a shining jewel.
Woodguy,
Weber is what I would call “a nice thing”. Marshmallow Tom – the overpriced 4 million dollar man – not so much.
Check out Gilbert’s latest impression of Paul Coffey to the Penguins – except big Tom’s been a minus player in every single game for the Wild so far.
hunter1909,
Actually, to be correct that is 3 games with a Minus 1 and an even. He is -3 after 4 games with the Wild.
And to be fair, you have to consider that the Wild were shut out 3 of those four games, giving up a total of 17 goals. And he’s only a -3. It may not look like a great number, but it certainly could have been worse given they only scored 4 goals all in one game.
LT,
Maybe I’m too much of an optimist, but I think the Oil can bring back a lot of survivors from this season. I’ll just put it out there that this team is three or four pieces away – a decent starting goalie, a big minutes defenseman, and some sandpaper like Jason Smith or Lee Fogolin. The Oil had flashes of brilliance this year which can really translate to success next year if they play their cards right.
Definitely have both a deficiency and salary issue on defense.
Whitney, Shultz, smid are solid 3-4 pairing defensemen
Petry is an emerging 3-4 pairing defenseman – 2nd year.
Without a top 1-2 pairing defenseman – Oilers are hardpressed to improve dramatically.
Well-run is a nice ambiguous statement that comes along with no defining characteristics whatsoever.
LT, are you referring to a team that is trying to change these things, but is unwilling to give up core pieces to do so, or a team that is trying to change these things and will give up anything to make it happen, or a team that is trying to change these things but must move at the pace of the market and the trade value of its assets?
Just curious.
Marshmellow Tom is a good NHL Dman.
The Wild are a terrible team with a worse goal differential (-37) than the Oilers (-22)
No one is saying Gilbert is Coffey (except Danny), but he was a multi-tool RH Dman. Not the most common kind of Dman.
The most common kind of Dman is LH Defence first, not great at moving the puck.
Objects in the mirror are much closer than they appear.
This season is being distorted by the .965 SV% Khabibulin sported in the first 15 games,
Had the Oilers received league average goaltending during that period they likely would have lost another 3-4 games.
If you assume it’s 3 games, they would have 50 points and be battling Columbus for 30th overall.
They are also 29th in shots/game, just a hair ahead of Minnesota, yet have managed to be 16th in goals/game. I’d wager that will come into balance over time.
Needs:
Two scoring wingers. (can’t count on Hemsky to stay healthy)
An upgrade at #2C
Two top pairing defensemen which would allow Smid, Petry, Schultz and Whitney to play in their comfort zones.
Reliable goaltending.
Then you need to fix the mess in the bottom 6 forwards but there should be enough talent on board to do so.
LT:: your own advice suggests that this team doesn’t have to do that much to show serious improvement – something I agree with. This team has already made strides this year over last, with improved play from the kids and an ever-shrinking goal differential. Even one top 4 defenceman, which would cut out guys like Barker and Peckham would yield substantial gains.
Until the defence is fixed however, I fail to see the need to do too much with the goaltending.. No point paying for more help in net if the D are going to hang the keepers out to dry every night.
Gilberts regression to 10th worst Defnsive Dman in the league says alot about SMID!
Smid is a top 5 Shutdown Dman!
Have you looked at our current none top pair. 2.35GA/60 facing the best.
Woodguy ! Tenth worst GA the last 4 years? Good?
Pretty weak Standard.
I think the Oilers get beat soundly tonight.
ANA is playing well, are at home, and it sounds like Hall is out.
With Hall out, it will be interesting to see which line Boudreau sends Beauchemin and Fowler out against (ANA’s top pair D).
Oilers have recalled Linus Omark from the AHL.
If he plays 4 games in the NHL, no AHL playoffs for him.
He’d probably prefer to play in the World Championships anyhow.
I think we see more neutral zone struggles with the Oilers tonight.
Getting rid of the best 1st pass passer on the team will do that.
Go Oilers!
Tend to agree w/Hunter. I’ve been critical of Renney’s handling of DD, but admit that it would not surprise me if at the end of the seasonthey do not bring him back and look at some kind of upgrade.
Actuallly though, would not mind a complete change in goal for next season, but Renney is going to keep Khabi because he thinks he needs a veteran presence behind a suspect defense.
We have a glaring need for 2 real NHL d-men this summer, top pairing being the most important because we can’t rely on Whitney’s foot/ankle going into next season or we’ll be doomed to repeat the issues of this season.
Forward corps needs tweeks not an overhaul and I think would benefit from a coach who did more line matching than the current one.
Since I’m over Renney’s coaching job, they’ll probably extend him for 2 years, but I can see us getting off to a very rough start next year and Renney being canned by boxing day.
Book it.
Rickibear: Goals against is a measure of goaltending imo.
If we start talking shots against, I can get on board with that.
As long as we measure what they players they have played against average against the player we are measuring, then the rest of the league.
rich,
Since I’m over Renney’s coaching job, they’ll probably extend him for 2 years, but I can see us getting off to a very rough start next year and Renney being canned by boxing day.
I think that’s a pretty shrewd guess.
So while we all want improvement of the kids, good teams look to solid older players to fill out the roster if they truly want to compete. Penner I guess signs in Anaheim for a discount, but if it happened that he signed here for 1 or 2 years it would be great as it allows us to wait on some of the kids. We have some bi-polar times on this blog, complaining on one hand that we are rushing kids, then turning around and complaining when we send them down to get better minutes. Penner has shown a solid ability to move the puck in the right direction, is decent in his own end. and when he is motivated he can take over games. He has size (albeit he is passive). If we want to compete for a playoff spot, which has been the org’s response when talking about next year, we need solid vets and not kids graduating.
Hall-Gagner-Hemsky
Penner-RNH-Eberle
Smyth-Horcoff-MPS
Eager-Belanger-Jones
Lander-Omark
Smid-Petry
Shultz-Wideman
Whitney-Sutton
Potter
Dubnyk
Harding
Means signing Penner to a 1 or 2 year deal at $2 mill per. Wideman a multiple year deal, say 4 years $4.75 million, and Harding a 2 year deal at $2 mill. This doesn’t kill our cap going forward, and adds a RH dman in Wideman, a solid big two way winger in Penner who may be motivated if happy, and in Harding you get a young guy to push Dubnyk who projects out better and may choose here because it is one of the few spots where he has a legit shot at being a starter.
What will they actually do : draft Murray and rush him to show, add no one up front and run with same forwards, and talk about Bulin being motivated as it’s his last year. So sad now.
So this will be Omark’s 4th game in 4 nights. Then 5 in 5 against SJS tomorrow.
Think the same thing that will happen to Omark as happened to Harski?
Dead legs then back to the AHL?
Your Edmonton Oilers.
Putting people in a position to fail since 1999!
I don’t think we’ll see that on a banner anytime soon.
“Goal: Devan Dubnyk (RFA), Nikolai Khabibulin
Defense: Ryan Whitney, Ladislav Smid, Jeff Petry (RFA), Nick Schultz, Andy Sutton, Corey Potter, Theo Peckham (RFA)
Center: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Sam Gagner (RFA), Shawn Horcoff, Eric Belanger, Anton Lander
Left Wing: Taylor Hall, Ryan Smyth, Ben Eager, Ryan Jones
Right Wing: Ales Hemsky, Jordan Eberle, Magnus Paajarvi, Linus Omark (RFA), Teemu Hartikainen
That’s 23. I’ve excluded Cam Barker, Lennart Petrell and Darcy Hordichuk. What would a well run team do?”
- Bite the final year bullet on Khabibulin and find a co#1 goaltender to share the land with Dubnyk. Ben Bishop or better. AGREED
- Plan on adding a RH puck mover who can play Top 2 (or at least 4) minutes, trade Theo and start the season with 8 d-men on the big club, unless Teubert has a hell of a camp and pushes Potter out. Assume Whitney will be hurt and actually will be a 5-6 guy.
- Buy out Horcoff on the inevitible contract amnesty period associated with the new CBA .
- Play the Swedes as a line with soft minutes
- Trade Jones
And if they’d received league average goaltending in the games he’s played since?
Carlos Freeking Santana! Very nice LT. The hockey this was good too.
@ Woodguy:
This is why I’m surprised they recalled Omark for tonight and did not wait until at least tomorrow to give him a day off. 5 games, 5 days, 5 different cities.
The Harski treatment.
You beat me to it. The two games will show that Omark can’t handle the two-way of the bigs, inspire articles of how he just can’t hack the NA game/youtube/bad body language which pave the way for his return to OKC with a clear conscience for the organization.
But maybe that’s just cynical of me.
I would call you a realist and not a cynic.
Yep, just like they did to Hemsky when they didn’t resign him – you guys called that one too. Or is it like the Smyth trade that they didn’t want, but were forced to accept?
I would say cynics
Tambo damn well better do something to help this team this off season.
If we don’t start winning next year the heat will be on to trade some of our better youth and you can guess how that will turn out.
And which Khabibulin do you think is the real one?
The first 15 games or the last 45?
No doubt they would have won a few more with better goaltending but to accomplish that they would need better goaltenders which I believe is part and parcel of this discussion.
<blockquote cite="comment-166006">
bookje: Yep, just like they did to Hemsky when they didn’t resign him – you guys called that one too.Or is it like the Smyth trade that they didn’t want, but were forced to accept?
I would say cynics
I actually bet with two other LT posters that the Oilers would re-sign Hemsky.
When every indication was that the Oilers were going to trade him, I made noise that it would be the wrong move, but I actually bet the other way.
Don’t let those facts get in the way of calling me a cynic though.
I also heard the same Smyth story from 2 seperate people who don’y know each other and had different souces for their story. Same story though.
You can call me whatever you want, just get the facts straight.
I’d call myself a realist.
Oilers need a #1 tender, 2 top 4 defenders and, in a perfect world, a 2C. Other than that, we are ready to challenge!!
In resigning Ryan Smyth trust Oiler (#notreally) realize they are signing a 3rd line LW. I want them to resign Smyth but he is no longer playing on top two lines moving forward. Pay him accordingly
Eagerly await news Barker is being resigned. More evidence of advanced analytics (#not really)
Omark, like Hartinenin ?? put in position to fail. Have no doubt twits in MSM will publish management script he is not up to task of playing in NHL. Anyone want a pool on which of our HOF writers leads charge?
Bookie,
This is a good example of cynicism.
My writing is much more lamenting facts than things that haven’t happened yet.
You’ll notice that I wrote asking if the same thing will happen to Omark as happened to Harski, not already concluding that it will happen.
World of difference.
I also try not give the Oiler management shit for stuff they haven’t done. There’s enough ammo in their player procurement record without going there.
I don’t believe we will find much of an upgrade on the back-end or in the net going into the next season, however, I could see continued some upgrading to our impressive depth up front by adding some or many of the following names to the roster via free agency: Shane Doan, Ray Whitney, Jaromir Jagr. I suspect that it is possible that any one of those players may consider joining the Oilers and possibly even with a relatively reasonable contract. To a lesser degree I am interested in Stoll and Arnott but I suspect they would want contracts that are less cap friendly.
I think we should clear Belanger’s roster space (via buy-out, waivers or trade) should we need to make space and then think hard about moving Jones after that if necessary.
Perhaps we may have the assets available to trade for Webber at the deadline or perhaps acquire him in free agency next summer. Outside of possibly Ryan Suter, I’m not too keen on any of the UFA defenceman available this summer. I think Suter is a longer shot to come here than Webber anyways. I don’t see Visnovsky being traded here, although I’d like that.
We draft any of Yakapov, R.Murray, G.Reinhart, F.Forsberg, M.Grigorenko or possibly even M.Rielly this season. We look at the goaltending options next deadline or next year in free agency.
This is spot on DSF.
Candidate #1 for Mr. Fernando Dvorak. Another hexagonal plug. Cheap to good home.
RW
Once hailed as prototype power forward.
26 and already carrying “loser”, “disappointment” tag. Largely because there was a time the looked like a sure 40 goal guy with upside.
6’3″ 220
1.66 pts per 60
Can outscore (though not outchance) mid to upper level competition with mid to poor linemates
Hits everything that moves. Has led NHL team in hitting. Well above average shot blocker. Consistently draws more penalties than he takes.
Has scored 15 goals twice in NHL (and is 26).
Is a true killer in terms of giveaways to takeaways. Tired of Oilers’ forwards losing all the battles? Here is arguably one of the best puck battlers in the NHL.
Slow with a possibly lousy attitude, though he was the Unsung Hero on one of the best teams in the NHL.
Bad luck in terms of trades injuries, etc. Lost his NHL career but won it back on hard work and is back with a good to great NHL team. One that prides itself on work ethic, discipline and defense.
Steve Bernier
No question I am cynical. Bad things happens here way too frequently. Want Oil to seriously compete. Not sure drafting early in 1st round and overpaying bottom half of our roster is the way to do it.
Seriously fear they will sign Barker. Hope I am wrong.
Ales Hemsky, Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle, Sam Gagner, Ladislav Smid are all excellent to phenomenal players. The Kids are so fucking good they not only terrify the daylights out of the opposition, but with the current draft position stand almost certain to add to this insane collection of hockey talent.
Yet, just because they trade Tom Gilbert, a mediocre defenceman unless sheltered and coddled who is also probably overpaid(you can go on until the cows come home about Kevin Lowe’s contracts), there is zero reason to be optimistic? Didn’t Tambellini re-sign Hemsky? Wasn’t that good enough?
Gilbert for the last time isn’t tough(understatement of the year), isn’t particularly good offensively, and is prone to making idiotic looking plays on a regular basis. Yet for some wack reason, I do agree, he’s a pretty good defenceman. He’d be great on the bottom pair of a very good team.
But when did Gilbert ever take over a game, beat anyone up, come to the rescue? Tom Gilbert is the epitome of the modern, selfish NHL player, just playing for a check and not caring squat. And from what I’ve seen, he’s exactly the same in Minnesota. Good riddance.
I would agree with you on me and I think WG makes a compelling case he is using facts to come up with his opinions.
Whereas I am weary from sick/injured kids being stuck inside with me all weekend as I graded students outcomes for report cards. Cynic.
I was wrong on Hemsky and would be delighted to be wrong again on Omark.
hunter1909,
Willis made a great post over at ON showing that there is only 7 players still with the Oilers from the time he arrived as GM, two who don’t play a regular shift on the big team (Chorney and Peckham) and only one coach. I think it is fair to say the procurement has not had the desired effect, despite repeated appeals to the god of Rebuild.
I don’t know where you are getting your ideas about Gilbert. Certainly not from the numbers.
This is not an endorsement. The result is intriguing, provocative, and almost certainly grotesquely over-inflated.
People Aren’t Smart Enough for Democracy to Flourish, Scientists Say
Note to DSF: Aptitude in statistics is not being able to massage the data to get any answer you want. Your early-season Khabiectomy is not in the high performer’s Swiss army knife, unless you’re advancing the view that the Oilers are the only team in the league where goaltending runs hot and cold.
What I take from that article is the sensible notion that we evaluate from above better than from below.
When a coach is criticized it can pan out in two ways: A) the critic is superior to the coach and has correctly evaluated the coach’s deficiencies, or B) the critic is inferior to the coach, and has mis-evaluated the coach’s virtuosic cat-herding agility. Tough to tell apart on the surface, they both sound mostly the same.
My personal litmus test is asking the person to imagine actually taking the coaching helm to find out whether the person experiences a roiling visceral nausea that the job is, in fact, a lot tougher than it looks.
Here’s a little logical conundrum to leave off. It could quite easily be the case that if you take a group of people on a fixed diet and switch them to a new diet, that in the short term you see more than ordinary uptick in energy and zest. It would be simple to explain: the group is coasting on the nutritional surplus from the steady-state diet, while back-filling deficiencies from the new grub, which might not be a balanced diet at all.
This is why I don’t trust the Krueger anecdote. Whatever Renney has taught well is still in there, and wherever Krueger has something valuable to add, you see the instant benefit. But a year from now, Renney’s particular gifts will have faded away, and you will only have left what Krueger supplies. Is he the full meal deal?
He might be better. He might not. At the expert level in Texas Holdem a player is defined more by his leaks than his brilliance. Only at the all-star level does brilliance come into play more so than deficiencies (at this level, none of these guys have egregious flaws).
In the YouTube clips I’ve watched of Nugent, he looks resourceful even when he’s sort of failing. Some holes in his game, but no bloody blind spots.
Note to DMW.
Hot and cold isn’t the issue.
The NHL record for SV% in a season is .938.
Khabibulin’s SV% in the first 15 games was .965.
Now, you may not see that as an aberration but sane people do.
If you don’t believe that kind of aberration won’t skew a season’s results I can’t help you.
I try and give management the benefit of the doubt. With Omark I fought hard against others who claimed something unfair was happening. He just got unlucky with timing and I guessed he would be the first recall once the sick bay filled up again. Yes, he should have been up here 7 days ago instead of Hordichuck but I’m fine with this timing. I am concerned with the 5 games in 5 nights details but I serioulsy doubt they’d hold it against him. Gotta think he’d hear something like “I know you’re bagged kid so we’re playing you at 4RW and 2PP. Do your best and we’ll find you some Top 6 minutes next week”. I’d actually be more pissed if they slotted him in Hall’s spot.
So with Omark resolved, now on to my next issue. The mission here is trying to understand the Schultz trade. Since Gilbert had basically foreited his PP role this year, I’d call him a defense first, puck moving, 1st pairing guy with a similar job description to Schultz. So why do the trade? Well, the only logical answer is that they have a hard-on for Nick Schultz cause we know they like Gilbert a fair amount since he’s averaged 23 minutes a night this year. They must view him as a dominant sutdown guy and a terrific penalty killer. Call him Ladi Smid redux. If they think Nick Schultz is Ladislav Smid, this trade starts to make some sense, no?
Yet here he is playing just over 14 minutes against the Stars in a game with 0 seconds PP time (which would hurt him). Sutton played over 17 and everyone else got the shit played out of them (21-24 minutes) almost like Schultz needed to be hidden like Colten Teubert.
So seriously, what the fuck? If you love the guy fine, trade for him and play him 20+ minutes a night. If you hate the guy or see him as a #6D playing 7 minutes less than Corey Potter why in fuck would you trade the guy playing the most minutes for him. Not bitching I’m just genuinely flabbergasted.
Ruling out options (including idiocy) here is what I’m left with:
1. Defensive systems are learned in the classroom and at practice and there hasn’t been time. That theory should be satisfied one way or the other tonight as they’ve had some time off and have been at home. If he plays 20 minutes plus then I’ll stop sounding the alarm.
2. Massive disconnect between Steve Tambellini and Tom Renney. I suppose it doesn’t have to be a disconnect but rather, differing opinions. If ST sees him as Smid Part II and Renney sees him as Cam Barker, this could explain this very odd issue. Maybe Steve pulled the trigger and told Tom…”look, you’ll love this guy. Within 2 weeks he’ll be your #2″.
Thoughts?
Ok Hunter, so you aren’t a Gilbert fan and that’s fine. But “they” are Gilbert fans. They played him more minutes than any other defenseman on the team so they obviously viewed him well. If you were running this team I could see you moving 77 for Schultz but the writing would have been on the wall because you’d have him playing 17 minutes or something and certainly less than 58, 5 and 6. But they didn’t view him like that which is where my disconnect comes from. The guy they got for him is being used like a bit part and there are no “equalizers”.
There’s no draft pick. There’s no trade in skill sets (PP for PK for instance). No salary cap savings. No win in either youth or experience. No increase or decrease in contract length.
So when you real boil it down, isn’t this like trading four $20 bills for a $50? Makes no fucking sense.
WG – I have no time to factcheck, like the MSM, I gotta get the story out.
Maybe they are easing him into the team to get used to the systems. I think it requires a week or two before making a judgement.
The disconnect between Renney and Tambellini seems like it is a possibility.
Ales Hemsky, Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle, Sam Gagner, Ladislav Smid are all excellent to phenomenal players
I guess I should have been more clear, I was referring to professional player procurement.
All the players you mentioned : Ales Hemsky, Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle, Sam Gagner, Ladislav Smid are all excellent to phenomenal players, were drafted by the Oilers with the exception of Smid, who was, along with Lupul, the cornerstone of the Pronger deal.
I am of the opinion that this team should be done adding picks and prospects and needs to add NHL caliber players.
They will need to trade for these players, or sign them as UFAs.
I do not have any confidence that they can do that effectively and I point at their history in these two areas as proof.
I hold you to a higher standard than the guys who get paid to write.
Bar_Qu,
I have enough problems with letters. Numbers seem to fly in and out of my head as they please.
Gilbert’s just a totally mediocre hockey player, overpaid on a 4 million per season contract. How’s that for numbers?
PS: I always more or less left Gilbert alone, despite thinking a whole lot less of him than Lowetide, and others. But now he’s gone, and performing in the same useless manner for the Wild(who are above the standings from oilers, so there’s little argument for his playing on a worse team), it’s hard to read endless eulogies, when in fact Hemsky was the big piece this trade deadline, and everyone knows it.
It’s not even proper decent analysis either. Just cynicism.
Renney seemed bewildered that they traded Gilbert.
I don’t envy his position, losing your highest minute Dman.
Perhaps Renney running him on the 3rd pairing was a bit of a message to v4.0 as well as out of necessity?
Define mediocre and explain why his is overpaid please.
I though LT’s is a place where blithe opinions are eschewed for conversations with evidence?
Tom Gilbert’s value in terms of winning hockey games is similar to that of Shawn Horcoff’s.
At very best he shortens the game and leaves winning and losing up to someone else (though his career +/-, like Horcoff’s, says he isn’t doing a great job at that).
knighttown,
There seem to be a lot of people (DSF in particular) that need to grasp the idea of “sample sizes”. Knighttown, why don’t we re-evaluate this deal at the end of the season (or at least the end of the month) before we start drawing grand conclusions regarding icetime for a newly acquired defenceman. When we’re dealing with one game, for all we know, his skate laces kept getting untied (or in this case, more likely, they were trying to ease him in).
I keep reading, I don’t watch prospects play much, that Dumba is going to end up the first dman drafted.
But I have no interest in a dman when these 2 Russians seem to be so far ahead of the pack. Draft one of them, trade DD and upgrade there. Keep Khabby and let him mentor the Russian phenom. Outside of the DUI I hear he’s a great teammate.
Potter .75M faced upper thirds w/ 4th line teammates at Age 28
Gilbert 4.0M lower 1st Comp W/ 1st line teamates at age 28
Even comparison TOI – ZoneST – Comp – EVP/60 – GA/60 – SV% – REL Corsi
Potter: 15:98 – 52.5 – (-.26) – .72 – 3.28 – .890 – 2.2
Gilbert: 17:40 – 51.4 – .44 – .61 – 3.23 – .889 – 6.0
PP comparison TOI – PPP/60 – GF/60
Potter: 2.68 – 4.28 – 7.14
Gilbert: 2.89 – 2.68 – 3.95
PK: Comparison: TOI – SV% – GA/60
Potter: ;68 – .800 – 6.68
Gilbert: 3.26 – .833 – 9.79
this year 3.28 – .893 – 4.89
So we trade a tough comp dman who is one of the worst ev shutdown dmen in the league.
For a top 30 shutdown dman. With equal PK skills.
You want to send down the 3rd line Comp dman who yeilds the Same GA. but is top 30 PPdmen that generates superior skill to the player traded.
Every time I hear the Bitching about gilbert Boo Hoo.
We run a PP unit with 4 forwards and 1 Dman. Is gilbert better than Whitney (rank #5)and Potter (#25). No
Even strength Is gilbert superior to Smid, Petry, Schultz, No. Improvement
Whitney has a superior EV history. Gilberts good year is likely a product of playing with Smid. So does gilbert beat out Whitney for 2 nd EV Pair Dman. NO.
Pk Shultz is not superior to Gilbert but equal?
So from this Gilbert was not going to get 1st or 2nd PP time. the guy they brought in improves the Ev play.
Schultz may not be ableto be able to fill the PK pair Gilbert plays but likely will. Though sutton is superior to both.
EV play. the team was deciding between Whitney , Gilbert, Potter for 2nd and 3rd pair. no way we pay 8M.
The question is Did we improve or reduce the PP. Neither.
Did we improve the Tough comp Even play? Yes.
Did we improve or reduce the PK? Neither.
Do we need more depth to cover for Whitney.?
The answer was yes before and yes now.
But gilbert was never a PP cover or EV cover for Whitney.
Woodguy,
With respect sir, I do believe Shultz is a very real upgrade on Gilbert. While many say it’s easy to acquire stay at home character defencemen, Shultz from all reports was the glue that held that incredibly oilers-unfriendly team together. He should turn out very well for his new team.
On the flip side, Gilbert should be able to provide the Wild with a decent pmd.
Methinks oilers need a Weber in back, to cement the defence of Smid/Petry/Whitney/Shultz + the endless lineup of propects coming down the pipe. Gilbert costs too much money for what he brings to this particular table.
I know it’s your thing but you can’t just pick and choose which stats to use in an argument. The fact is Khabi played at a .965 rate for 15 games! Is it normal… no. But it happened, which shows that it’s possible that it could happen again…. highly unlikely but possible.
Every bloody player in the league has stretches where they play above their average and stretches where they play below.
So a guy who averages 16:40 at EV gets 14:18 in his first game with a new team and we are using it to prove Oilers’ management are idiots and that there is a rift between the Oilers’ General Manager and Coach? It takes the breath away. That must be the most informative 2:22 seconds in hockey history.
Cactus is right, we seem to have a problem understanding small sample size.
Sure, it’s also theoretically possible that turkeys could fly…but they can’.t
A save percentage 30 points above the league record is not “above average”.
It’s a huge anomaly.
And, yes I can pick which stats I want to use in an argument…just like everyone else does.
#1) Trade Khabi at the draft. If no takers, buy his last year out.
#2) Draft the big Russian center (Grigorenko) with the second pick. He’s BPA, we have a need, and can’t wait 3-4 years for Dumba/Murray/Reinhardt to develop.
#3) Buy out Horcoff in the (i hope) post-labor deal amnesty period.
With cap room saved in buyouts/trades:
#4) Sign at least 2 quality defensemen, one top-pairing puck-mover and one guy to push everyone competing for the bottom pairing down a spot.
#5) Sign a player who can push Dubnyk for the #1 goalie job.
#6) Upgrade the 3rd/4th line. Eager and Belanger are keepers, Lander is a maybe (in AHL), deal or non-tender the rest. If Omark can’t crack the 2nd line, keep him around as injury backup.
Turkeys can fly. See this link.
And you can’t ignore math – a totality of a goalie’s season is what comprises his SV%. Even though it can be a misleading stat (thank you Mr Mason).
Communist!
And if the Oil buy out NK doesn’t that spread out the cap hit over a couple years, or does it all stay in one year b/c he’s over thirty-five?
The Gilbert banter has been amusing and is almost a test-case for something I’ve been mulling over for awhile. Like many here, I play a lot of hockey and hear a lot of Oiler-talk in dressing rooms. Over the past few years I have heard only one or two positive comments about Gilbert, and lots on the negative side; mostly comments like “indifferent,” and “soft.” Some of these negative comments have come from very good hockey players who have made a living playing hockey–probably better than most who post here. Yet Gilbert’s numbers are generally good. So what gives? Does the math cause one to see Gilbert good? Does seeing Gilbert bad challenge the math? I’ve stated before that LT and JW have presented numbers which helped me to see Gilbert in a better light; which proved that I had a certain jaded view of his play. Yet I do feel that he was at times lethargic, uncertain on PP breakouts (particularly last year), and not as solid on first-passes as is often cited here; which, by the way, I’ve never seen justified by math. Besides the math and the saw-him-good/bad is the variable of team-systems which throws a wrench into both of those. For example, many are taught defensive zone coverage in minor hockey and never learn other systems like man-man or hybrid; so a fan might “see Gilbert bad” if he leaves his position to play man-man and it results in a G/A. On the other hand, being out-shot does not mean being outplayed. Certain systems allow for more perimeter shots–particularly the collapse structure.
For me, I don’t think anyone should overlook the value of personally seeing a player and then measuring their play in light of team-systems and math.
DSF,
I would suspect that if one analyzed 15 segment games by goalies through their career they would see numerous .965 save percentages over that span. Without crunching numbers, I look at the season of MIller this year:
Oct 25 to Dec 28 – 15 games played
–> 3.67 GAA and .880 SP (clearly not even worthy of the ECHL)
Jan 31 – Mar 1 – 15 games played
–> 1.79 GAA and .940 SP (which set of games represent Miller?
Your use of statistics is childish at best.
rickithebear,
So we trade a tough comp dman who is one of the worst ev shutdown dmen in the league.
For a top 30 shutdown dman. With equal PK skills.
Which year are you taking QC numbers from? Shultz hasn’t played 1sts this year.
You want to send down the 3rd line Comp dman who yeilds the Same GA. but is top 30 PPdmen that generates superior skill to the player traded.
I don’t think I have said that I want to send down Potter.
I have complained mostly about his 2 on 1 skills (or lack thereof)
I agree that if you are not playing Gilbert on the PP, it lessens his value. I agree that Potter is a superior option for the PP.
What is missing though in your look at these players is GFON/60.
I believe that Shultz may provide slightly better Dzone work, but his lack of good first pass is a big knock against him, and the GF will suffer.
GFON/60
Gilbert 2.23
Shultz 1.35
GAON/60
Gilbert 2.51
Shultz 1.93
+/- per 60
Gilbert -0.29
Shultz -0.59
That’s with Gilbert playing 1sts and Shultz playing 2nds.
As MacT always said, “its what you create, minus what you give up”
As a net, Gilbert come out ahead, especially when you consider the QC
For the record:
I think the Oilers upgraded the Dzone and downgraded the 1st pass, which in my estimate will slightly hurt the GF/60 more than it will help the GA/60. In other words they traded a Jack for a 9.
They also managed to short themselves of a good RH Dman who can move the puck, they are rare in the NHL.
I never disagreed with your right to your opinion sir, I just miss the days where we all provided evidence and only Traktor made hit and runs.
Its more self serving that childish.
He knows what he’s doing.
Jeepers Vor (and Cactus), I’m not sure if I could have been more “soft” in my criticism. I’m trying to understand their thinking. They thought enough of player 1 to give him the most ice time on the team. They move him for player 2 who is a very similar player both on-ice and with respect to “other info” like contract status and age. My assumption would be that they think player 2 is better than player 1 at what he provides or else why do it? Tom Gilbert was a minute munching defesneman who played the top pairing on this team. Nick Schultz ain’t going to play any power play so he MUST play 20+ minutes a night against the teams best forwards to even begin assesing the trade.
Gilbert played 23 minutes a night. Schultz played 14 in one game. I absolutely do realize it was one game and I draw NO conclusions. I DID offer some possible reasons as to why he played so little (Renney not being as sold, getting to know the systems, ADD very little PK time).
I thought this trade was an odd one and I guess I’m trying to create my line in the sand as to my expectations. We win this trade if Nick Schultz plays 20+ minutes against top forwards and is more successful than Tom Gilbert which, as many have pointed out, is not impossible. I’d consider the trade acceptable if he lets Smid handle the absolute toughs but Schultz anchors a second shutdown pairing and kills it on the PK.
I’m simply stating that if Schultz continues to play 14-18 minutes against soft competition it’s a bad trade without even looking at results. I DO NOT think this will be what happens and I expect that to change tonight based on how terrible Potter was the other night. 5/6/58/15 at 21+ minutes with 25/44 at 17 is what I expect.
Traktor,
Here is a player’s career +/-
Please tell me how much this player added to winning and losing:
Also please guess which years this player played on a good team, and which years he was on a crappy team.
-36
-40
-26
5
-3
-8
7
14
-10
0
23
30
45
12
4
11
10
2
-4
-6
I’ll go with childish. He knows what he is doing and it is trolling, and it is hard to think up a non-childish reason for trolling. No one can be that dense about statistics yet be so willing to compile distorted statistics when he wants to needle people on the site. The very fact he is willing and able to distort the numbers so much is evidence that he has at least some clue of the underlying reality behind them. Though his last comment suggests his whole schtick might be a postmodern critique of the objectification of modern life and sports in particular. But I’m willing to slide that sloppy critique of the “objective” into the childish category so it is a distinction without a difference.
Mediocre: Neither very good, nor very bad. Average. Nothing special. You don’t go home talking about Gilbert, because he rarely does anything worth remembering. That’s mediocre.
Gilbert was overpaid re: the oilers because they are running a salary cap, and need to conserve their money for players who actually help the team move up to the next level, which is something Gilbert is incapable of doing.
I don’t give a flying monkey’s what you think this place should or should not be. Traktor gives a very interesting take on the team, I usually like reading whatever he’s going on about, whether I agree or not.
Gilbert’s not in the same league as Rob Schremp, so it hardly seems worth getting in a tiff over.
Ricki has proven that math can show anything you want.
Math says that Gilbert is terrible. Math says that Gilbert is awesome.
Bottom line: don’t believe everything you read.
I think Traktor has a lot of correct, but unpopular opinionis, but gives them in a way that you want them to be wrong.
Gilbert was overpaid re: the oilers because they are running a salary cap, and need to conserve their money for players who actually help the team move up to the next level, which is something Gilbert is incapable of doing.
If we are counting takingittothenextlevel/60, then how has Shultz done that for MIN?
I don’t give a flying monkey’s what you think this place should or should not be
Yeah, I post far too much, and its not my site.
Think I’ll start cutting way back.
Don’t believe what you see either:
http://agora.stanford.edu/sjls/Issue%20One/fisher&tversky.htm
According to twitter, via Willis, Hall is likely to play while Omark may not.
woodguy.
We’d miss you!
knighttown
I didn’t mean that as a shot at you in any way. I was simply trying to point out that we do have a tendency here to discuss small sample sizes. Sorry if it came off as personal.
I think it is possible that the Oilers were simply responding to Chuck Fletcher, who as much as said he was the driving force in the trade, when he asked what would it take to get Tom Gilbert. I think Petry was the comparable, in KL/ST’s brains to Gilbert – now there is a small sample size problem. They asked for a tree of Jan Hedja D-man who is by all accounts a great character guy. They weren’t in any way trying to replace Gilbert just improve the balance of their D-corp. ST told Tencer he wanted two more D and that was after the trade. I sort of took it has a given that this meant part of the trade was about beginning the true rebuild of the Oilers D. Which is what every blogger and poster has been demanding for several years.
Schultz isn’t meant to be an end game, rather a building block in a much bigger strategy. That of course leaves open a debate on whether ST’s strategy as it unfolds is the correct one. I worry it may turn out to be too dependent on kids punching above their weight class.
I just looked at my email in a mini-window, and only saw the email header “Kevin Lowe named as GM…” and was quite shocked! Until I opened it…
You’ll note that Miller’s best segment was with the realm of “normal”…i.e. it’s been done before.
Khabibulin’s was not…it was above HHOF goaltending for over ten percent of the season.
I would really like to see another example of this since you say these episodes are “numerous”.
I would also then challenge you to explain how an “out of body” experience like that had no bearing on skewing a season’s results for the team that got that kind of goaltending.
If Gagner were to score a hat trick every game for a ten game stretch and then revert to the mean, would you also be arguing that is just business as usual?
Sorry Bud, but a SV% of .965 and a GAA of < 1.00 is a huge anomaly but it happened and, if you're going to assess the Oilers' entire season and ignore that, fill yer boots.
I know this is not on the Gilbert/Schultz topic and may of been talked about already but as for changes next year, I think an offer sheet on cory schneider is the best way to improve the goaltending situation.
I know its been on the cult of hockey and Dellows mentioned it on Nation radio this past weekend, and to me it makes a ton of sense. I have no idea what the canucks plans are with him, but they dont have tons of cap space and if the oilers offered a 3 or 4 year deal worth 3.1 million/per they would only have to give up a 2nd rounder in 2013.
Hes no surefire number 1 yet, and its a bit of a risk, but from his numbers, what I’ve seen in games hes played, and based on the options available this summer i feel like this would be the best course of action. Thoughts/Opinions?
billymadison,
I am on the Schneider offer sheet bandwagon. The only caveat is that Gillis may take care of the problem before it gets to offer sheet territory. He has to trade either Luongo or Schneider in June. If he doesn’t then the offer sheet is a slam dunk because he can’t (or won’t) pay both.
You know KT, if this team were being run to win, I expect that would make some sense.
But it’s not being run to win, so presuming such is raw foolishness.
Tom Gilbert was traded and the bottom line is that our RD is weaker, and the team’s ability to move the puck to the forwards is poorer. Based on everything I have seen this year, this team lives or dies on the transition. The kids are getting better at it, but right now, they’re not strong enough on the boards to be able to do it effectively. As for the rest of the team (the 3 & 4 lines)… they can’t get the puck into the zone consistently and keep it there long enough to cycle. So moving Gilbert for a guy who moves the puck to the forwards more poorly, and thereby exacerbate this problem is…. what? Either really dumb, or a plan to continue to lose.
There’s lots of justifications re: why this trade isn’t so bad, but THE key here isn’t that it was bad or not – it’s another sign that either: this team has no interest in winning in the short term (aka: the reason why Hall and Co. will not be resigning here long-term) OR they have no idea what is needed to make this team a winner (aka: the bloggers were right! Now keep crying over the losses).
Because really… that’s what’s at stake here right? If the hemsky signing debacle didn’t make it crystal clear, I don’t know what will – the kids want to win, and see what is needed to do that.
At what point does the losing ensure that when they have the choice of playing here, that they choose anywhere else?
knighttown,
Sorry, but your post did sound like it was jumping the gun. Suggesting after one game that Renney may not be sold on the trade is as speculative as my skate lace example. Might as well wait and see what happens. That, or look at past results:
Nick Schultz TOI:
2011-12: 19:30
2010-11: 20:13
2009-10: 20:58
2008-09: 20:33
Note that in all but 2009-10 he received less than 30 seconds/game on the PP and around 2:30 on the PK (rising to a peak of 3:20 on the PK in 08/09). According to the data others have presented here, his QC is down this year, but has generally played top competition.
In other words, a reasonable expectation is for the Oilers to ease him into about 20 mins a night in 1st/2nd pairing along with a healthy does of PK time. Until we see a clear trend otherwise, might as well leave the speculation for another day.
Gah Woodguy, don’t stop now! You’ll just be letting ignorance win! Then where will we be? The Dark Ages of DSF, that’s where!
Woodguy,
Not too much, mate. You’re one of the really astute posters here.
I seen the linked article. But then I didn’t believe it.
I need one of you rocket scientists to clue me in…if Omark doesn’t play tonite (Willis is reporting Hall is a go) does it count as one of the four games or does he have to be in uniform and penciled into the starting lineup?
Yep, just like they did to Hemsky when they didn’t resign him – you guys called that one too. Or is it like the Smyth trade that they didn’t want, but were forced to accept?
I would say cynics
Its the internet. Nobody knows nothing except commenters on blogs – the 21st century mob. The black and white certainty of opinion is often astonishing.
He who has the least access to the team knows most.
He who supports a 29th place team knows more than the anyone employed by the 29th place team, because they are a 29th place team.
He who repeats himself the most, wins.
I guess its a step up from a bunch of pitchfork wavers screaming about whether Tambellini is a witch or not, but sometimes I wonder.
Don’t get me wrong. I love this place and the commenters. Just some days a little less than others.
I appreciate that.
I’m not running away, but Lordy I have a lot of posts.
Too many during the day especially.
Ducey,
And somehow Lowe is routinely recognized as a good enough GM to run the national team, or perhaps it is because he is so bad he’s expendable for that timeframe, and the Oilers are bad enough to let him come back? Or maybe it’s known he’s going to be let go…
Captain Obvious,
yeah thats what I am thinking too. Hopefully Cory and his agent are smart enough to wait till July 1 and find their payday there. Im sure the canucks would love to trade luongo and keep Cory but noone is gonna take on that contract IMO.
Woodguy,
Sakic,
You could have directed that one to another serial context killer. Can’t quite recall the the name of the Dishonest Seguin Fanboy I’m thinking of.
Natch. Faulty memory. I was recalling a Disgenuous Seguin Fanboy.
Does anybody know of a good link for the game tonight?
DSF,
I spent the last hour or so recalculating the entire season of games on the assumption that the Oilers had average NHL goaltending for every game (0.914). The stats don’t fully support your argument. With average goaltending, the Oilers would be in the 68 point range right now.
The Game 1 Pittsburgh win would have turned into a loss. Game 2 and Game 6 Minnesota OT points would have turned into losses. Game 3 Vancouver loss would have turned into a win. During the Oilers’ six game winning streak starting with NYR and ending in Los Angeles, two games would have remained wins, two would have turned into losses, and two would have slipped into OT points. That encompasses the hot streak.
Now for when the Oilers goaltending turned cold: six games that were losses would have turned into wins and eight games that were losses would have turned into OT points. A small number of games that the Oil won would have turned into losses or OT points.
Using the worst case scenario, where the Oilers got only 1 point in all of their OT games, the Oilers would have 60 points this season, which is four ahead of where they are right now. But, this year, the Oilers won 5 out of 11 of their OT games. So using that same percentage, the Oilers, with average goaltending, would have 68 points. That’s a team within striking distance of making the playoffs.
I will hold to my argument – the Oilers are decent goaltending, a solid defenseman, and one Jason Smith / Lee Fogolin away from being a playoff competitive team. I believe the changes you proposed earlier is what it would take for the Oilers to be a contender – which I agree is the ultimate goal. But for this team to be fighting for the playoffs, I believe very few changes are needed.
I built a spreadsheet and would be happy to send it to anyone who would like to see it.
Am I missing the Omark recalled mention? Anyways, good for him, hope he produces and forces Renney’s hand.
In case you weren’t aware, a team is measured over a whole season. Just thought I would point that out in case it blew right by you. Speaking of blowing, perhaps you can clarify how you came to your (15 games and a .965 SP) numbers?
It looks like Khabi had a .936 SP and a 1.87GAA over his first 15 games this year. I do note that he had a .964 SP and a 0.98GAA over his frst 9 games (an even smaller sample size – sometimes referred to as a hot streak).
Oh, how I wish these blogger tools had an ignore feature. What a wonderful world it would be if I could just filter all your comments like they never existed. Fill yer boots troll.
Things are back on track, but it’s important to keep these arguments from getting personal. WordPress gives us the option of not having you post here, so please keep the discussion on the rails. Kim Gernack taught me 12 years ago that we can all learn from discussions well argued with logic and reason.
Let’s do our best to keep things in the best redtwilight tradition. Thanks.
Lowetide,
Redtwilight, eh?
Yep: communism.
OKC’s clear day roster was submitted. We’ll find out tomorrow who’s on it…
I’m hopeful that Omark is not on the list, he needs to stay in the NHL . Now is the time to see what he can do before he hits RFA.
I’m so sick of this damn clear day roster. Does Vancouver sit around fretting over their clear day? thank God and greyhound Stockton’s clear day isn’t an issue.
Horcovian slip.
I’m an idiot. Had an old browser window open. Anyways, this is a nice opportunity to clear up the Omark question before next season.
If one is going to throw out a player’s best 15-game stretch in a statistical calculation, one better throw out their worst 15-game stretch also.
Statistics aren’t valid is you decide to selectively throw out data. I doubt any player would look good if you threw out their best 15-game stretch.
Khabibulin probably has a greater standard deviation in his performance than most goaltenders, and that more than anything else makes him a poor goaltender, because one cannot rely on a given level of performance. Low variability is a desired quality in a goaltender.
Couple interesting tweets this afternoon:
1) Jim Matheson @NHLbyMatty Close
I am betting oilers trade linus omark’s rights at draft. He is nhl player but oil small as it is.
2) Mark Spector Sports @SportsnetSpec Close
IMO not at all sure Omark is a Top 6 NHL player. My bet is he signs elsewhere this summer, tho could have trouble finding 1-way deal.
Just need @sunterryjones to weigh in and the MSM railroading of Omark out of town will officially have begun.
For those of you who might be confused, this makes sense because NHL teams only need six forwards each.
Stauffer just tweets that Lander is out day-to-day with a hip pointer.
Damn
Hopefully some of Armstrong’s and Hollands ideas about building a winning team rub off on KLowe. Must have forgot his notepad last time around.
Building a national team may be a little easier than building a winning franchise, with a salary cap, in Edmonton, AB.
Gret99zky,
Partly true, except your competition also has no salary cap to worry about.
Cogliano has gone from 2LW to 3C to 3LW on the Ducks.
This game makes the DAL game seem scintillating.
So, now that the “Oilers seek to discredit Omark by playing him 5 nights in a row” is blown, we shift to “Oilers use media puppets to discredit Omark”?
What would be their motive?
Smytty, Jones, Horcov: the muffin line? The twisted wristers?
That was a hilariously bad line change.
Prior to that awful goal, the Anaheim crew has twice commented positively on Petrell and twice said that khabi has a horseshoe, if anyone was wondering what the foreigners thought.
Is a linechange that bad on the coaches?
So, we recall Omark so he can watch the great talents displayed by Hordichuk, Belanger, Eager, Jones and Petrell? Is that it?
Morons…
Devante Smith-Pelly barely braces for a full-stride Andy Sutton & nearly knocks his elder on his ass. Kid’s got such a low centre of gravity & he can skate. All kinds of upside. Pitlick has some nice tools & Marincin appears to be a nice bit of drafting… But DSP has a chance to have one of the better NHL careers out of the 2010 draft.
Jason Blake, how do I hate thee? Let me count the ways. Bugger always scores on the Oil.
I never said that.
I am glad they recognize they gave Harski the shaft when they didn’t let him sit a game out when he came up and are not doing the same to Omark.
Just add 15GA onto next years total due to bad line changes. Man, every year.
Best part of this game has been the set of schmeebs on the Barbie over Hiller’s left shoulder.
Woodguy,
I think the truth of the matter is that Omark would be playing tonight if Hall couldn’t go. Since Hall was good to go, they went with sitting Omark due to the 3 games in 3 days. Just my thoughts.
Well the lines had zero offensive chemistry last game but we’d better try them again to be sure. Maybe we should leave the fourth liners on the fourth line and also only play 3 of them each game.
It’s a shame the Oil haven’t got enough shots to show her more.
No, you didn’t, NOTB suggested that the media were railroading Omark out of town. And, I actually do agree that sometimes the Oiler management does some fine manipulation of the MSM to get their message out.
Two things:
1) Agreed
2) I haven’t heard “schmeebs” in a loooong time. Thanks for that.
There you go, Doug McLean says that Sutton was a good signing … so there. It’s been said. No more debating.
LOL
As pointed out here earlier, having Omark play multiple games in a row would be bad management of the player and should be avoided if possible.
I am glad they avoided it.
Ha, just read JW’s Not So Obvious Game Day Day Prediction over at ON’s GDB “Tom Renney decides not to dress Linus Omark in the interests of giving him one day off before putting him back in action on Tuesday. The camera pans the press box and we see an unhappy expression on Omark’s face; Oilers fans instantly read too much into it and critique his poor attitude. We later learn that he’d just discovered that Theo Peckham has more followers on Twitter.”
Nice fit for the discussion here so I thought I would share it.
Danny – I am getting lots of timeouts unless I post very quickly – perhaps that is why there is a dearth of comments here today (that or the sucky hockey that is being played).
Okay, for anyone who might care: I tried to edit this but I may be commenting under the influence. It should say that DSP might end up being one of MBS’ misses & may have one of the better careers out of 2010′s second round.
And the same afternoon that Omark was called up, no less…THE PLOT THICKENS.
Horcoff with the most minutes among forwards after 1 period.
Obviously NHL coaches know more than me but I would play my best players the most minutes and limit the icetime of others like Horcoff.
He must not have sideburns.
bookje,
Sorry, when I read that I though you had responded to my post.
I agree that when every MSM close to the team is singing the same tune, then there is usually a reason for it.
Forgot all the games in a row, will check my rage until tomorrow.
Observations from the Ist period: Awful hockey. That ‘s about it isn’t it?
Renney gets a big negative for having the stellar Hordichuk in the roster in lieu of anybody else in the organization. My preferred replacement for Renney next year? Lindy Ruff should he become available this summer.
And then there is Ryan Whitney: gave the puck away 4 times in his own end (with full possession) on one shift. He he were a horse we’d be talking about which glue factory will give us the Oilers top dollar for this once functional steed. He’s hanging on for dear life.
Isn’t playing Khabi akin to playing Barker at this point? A complete waste of time… in back to backs I’d rather see Danis get the game – he deserves it. I wouldn’t be shocked if the organization brings Khabi back next year – seriously disappointed but not shocked.
Looking forward to the 2nd!
Descriptive enough that men get it. Politically correct enough that women don’t mind it.
Right with Vajayjay as ones you can
Watching the ANA feed from Palm Springs. Not exactly rocket surgeons calling this game “had to overpay to keep Hemsky in Edmonton”.
I’m not watching – is the second period going as well as the shot totals would suggest?
4,89,83 own the puck when they are out there, but no luck near the net yet.
28,10,94 doing well on the cycle
37-93-14 pretty scrambly
55,20,14 (taking 16′s spot) have been ok, but get hemmed in once.
and Hemsky looks like he twisted his right ACL and is now in the dressing room.
FFS
Brutal non-call on Koivu there. Should have been two minutes.
maybe right ankle
When is our coaching staff going to wise up to the fact that no penalties are being called, so its time for the Oilers to start playing a more aggressive (see dirty) style of play? Ridiculous no call on Hemsky there.
Sedin! ….errr Horcoff!
Horc with the unstoppable Russian tip
Beauty goal. Nice to see the Oil score one of those for a change.
Hmmmm.
Apparently calling penalties is a thing of the past.
A game in which Horcoff scores should be considered a win.
He was back on the bench before the end of the period.
This is robo-Hemsky.
Newer (Shoulders)
Better
Stronger
Is it too soon to declare Schultz to be unquestionably a better offensive player than Gilbert?
Hemsky injured? Impossible.
Gilbert 4 0 0 0 -3
New guy 3 0 2 +1
…the difference is that one of us was being facetious.
Well, Its been over 10000 seconds of play and well over 300000 seconds since the trade, so I think the small sample size no longer applies
I have a feeling it would require the equivalent of shattering a Titan TPM 2020 over an Oiler’s cranium before an arm will go up. I have no idea what the equivalent of that is.
Bulin’s 0.947 save % after 40 minutes is unsustainable.
Ducks win 2-1.
Nice heads up play by Shultz over to Horcoff. Crazy non penalty call on Hemsky. Happy to see he’s back on the bench to start the third.
SS:
Not trying to reprise the Lone Gunman Theory tonight. A 30-30-29th place team should be looking under every rock for talent. Will Omark ever contribute at the NHL level, I surely don’t know, but with a few weeks left in the season hopefully there will be some anwers. However, the key beat writers here appear to be penning their ‘Sail On…’ stories already.
Everything is sustainable in small samples.
That non-call on Potter was hilarious, and probably should have put the Oilers up 2-1 with Eberle being sprung like that.
Just realized I’ve used the word hilarious in both posts today.
I guess I’d rather laugh during Oiler games than throw objects at or around my TV.
Just fantastic work by Eberle on Perry behind the net on that last shift.
Is that the fourth breakaway of the night?
Hemsky, Eberle, Ryan/Blake 2 on 0 and now Ryan again.
That was some filthy finish by Ryan there.
I’ve never seen so many horizontal sticks in the hands and no hooking calls. Both sides of the puck too.
The NHL needs more goals, not less.
I hate this trend.
Make the net 6″ wider and 3″ taller if they are going to call games like this and let goalies triple their water displacement with padding.
Potter was so far out of position on that ryan goal.
He’s been really bad lately. Good thing the oilers rewarded him for a good first ten games.
If he’s a regularly dressed defenseman on your team, your team is really bad.
I always cheer for the Oilers but if this gives Flames fans any discomfort then it’s okay. Consider it partial payback for the Regehr charging penalties on 83 that were never called.
Slick pass by RNH and totally sick hands by Ebs !!!
What a gong show. They call a penalty now.
Whitney is dying a slow painful death out there tonight. It’s tough to watch.
Glad the Oilers traded Gilbert so they could cut down on give-aways.
Lordy.
Did it even make any sense at all to Give Potter an extension so soon in the season? Were there really people waiting in line for this guy? They could have waited until the end of the season, and then seeing that he could not sustain things, let him go or put him in the A.
I mean, if I can figure out that simple formula in a minute, how long did management take to make the decision?
Completely predictable that there would be a call at 3-1 late. What an effing joke.
Well, we get to see the same bunch tomorrow night! Lucky, lucky lucky!
.867
Meh. He’s a guy they can send down to the minors and it doesn’t cost much.
What’s that number?
Looks to me like what v4.0 gets back when asks for change for a dollar.
No, it;s the modifier he should use when signing unproductive players to new contracts.
-14 ain’t pretty.
Every now an then I tend to agree with Traktor.
People by nature tend to have short memories. Gilbert was signed based on a 45 point season largely comprised of second assists.
Many of us also tend to complain when management waits until a player’s value is at its nadir before unloading the player. Tom was a having a relatively good season, so it probably was a decent time to trade him.
Tom’s a minute muncher and a multi-tool, but he’s a prototypical jack of all trades, master of none.
If I had the time to do the analysis, I would *guess* that it would show Tom doesn’t contribute to winning games nearly to the degree that Visnovsky did as an Oiler.
I’m guessing that we can blame this all on Bruce’s think tank. :p
Someone smarter than myself could probably break down Gilbert’s stats this season and show that it’s unsustainable lol.
All this being said, I would understand this trade more if the Oilers needed another LH 4/5 dman.
Probably not as much as Coffey, either.
Omark sits for 2:58 seconds of Hordichuk ‘intimidation’ in a penalty free game… Good hockey decision. At least the coach noted the 1st period indifference from both clubs and sat him the rest of the night… but coming out of that game he knows he made a bad decision right? Right?
So, your decision would be to play Omark in his 4th game in 4 nights with another game tomorrow night?
Sounds like you might not be the best source regarding good vs bad decisions…
bookje,
Ooops fair enough Bookje. That’s a clear error. Please insert ‘any other Oiler’ in Hordichuk’s spot in the lineup as an improvement.
mc79hockey @mc79hockey
If the Oil started Whitney in the d zone, at least he wouldn’t have to skate there.
It’s a sad situation when, apparently, the reason the Oilers aren’t getting the calls is because the referees have hurt feelings.
Should the NHL put up with referees managing the game this way because they feel disrespected and hold grudges for it?
The penalties not being called is league wide. Every broadcast I watched in the last week (SNOilers, HNIC, Dallas’ home, and Anaheim’s home) has mentioned that the refs have put the whistles away. It’s pretty bizarre.
In completely unrelated news GMs will shortly decide no rule changes are needed to slow the game down to reduce concussions.
No penalties again. Looks like the new “60 minutes for blowing your whistle” has everything under control.