lynyrd skynyrd

Tom Renney gave a push to Lennart Petrell last night and the Finn delivered a solid performance. According to Dennis King scoring chances he was 5-2 during the game and quite effective during his time with RNH and Eberle (5-1 with those two, the GA had Eberle and Belanger as linemates). Coach Tom Renney felt Petrell played fine, saying “he’s not a Picasso out there, it’s more like grabbing a paint brush for a barn. But I might look at that again.”

WHAT DOES LENNART DO?

Coach Renney called Petrell a 4th line “heavy lifter” Behind the net suggests:

  • Petrell DOES face the toughest EV Zone Start among Oiler wingers, second overall to Eric Belanger in terms of tough sledding.
  • His EV QualComp number is second easiest among Oiler forwards, with only Darcy Hordichuk getting easier minutes.
  • His EV CorsiRel is a team worst -19.4
  • Petrell and Ryan Smyth have the best 4×5 CorsiRel’s among Oiler forwards.

Petrell is an interesting player. I would suggest that Petrell might be on the way to earning a second contract. I know a lot of things can change between now and contract time, hell the GM  and coach don’t have a contract and I’m not even certain Kevin Lowe is signed beyond this season. Having said that, if all things remain equal this Finn might have another season in the show. What say you?

==

NATION RADIO is on at noon today, Team 1260 and the website has a listen live button. If you can’t make it live, download is available at Oilers Nation usually within 24 hours of the show’s broadcast. Scheduled to appear:

Interesting guests top to bottom. Hope you tune in.

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82 Responses to "lynyrd skynyrd"

  1. D says:

    Most successful organizations, whether in hockey or elsewhere, take time to develop their talent. If, for whatever reason, the Oilers have identified Petrell as someone worth developing, they need to stick with him. Otherwise, the organization would simply be spinning its wheels and not making any progress.

  2. Zack says:

    I know coaches like to change it up once and a while but I find that this reminds me how young the team is. In a way it reminded me of JFJ starting on the top line, different situation but still. The first two lines are usually solidified on competitive teams, its not often you see their third line winger on the “first line”. Interesting to see if TREN does this again.

    On another note I watched all of Ryan Murray’s goals this season (yesterday) and this kid has an accurate slap shot. 5/8 Goals scored near the blue with a howitzer. His most recent goal was on the rush and he put in a rebound near the crease.

  3. Lowetide says:

    Zack: I think he’s an Oiler on draft day.

  4. Woodguy says:

    Having said that, if all things remain equal this Finn might have another season in the show. What say you?

    I would say that both Hartikainen and Omark would have better results in the same spot, but come with the bonus of being able to play up and down the line up.

    Therefore re-signing Petrell is a mistake that should be avoided.

    Therefore I expect the extension to be announced any time. :)

  5. Woodguy says:

    D:
    Most successful organizations, whether in hockey or elsewhere, take time to develop their talent.If, for whatever reason, the Oilers have identified Petrell as someone worth developing, they need to stick with him.Otherwise, the organization would simply be spinning its wheels and not making any progress.

    He’s 27.

    Doesn’t fit the mould of a player to develop.

    He was a stop gap brought in to shore up a dismal 4v5, but has shown poorly 5v5.

  6. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: He’s 27.

    Doesn’t fit the mould of a player to develop.

    He was a stop gap brought in to shore up a dismal 4v5, but has shown poorly 5v5.

    I wonder though if he could handle 4line minutes and PK if the 4line was a little more capable?

  7. Showerhead says:

    Zack:
    I know coaches like to change it up once and a while but I find that this reminds me how young the team is. In a way it reminded me of JFJ starting on the top line, different situation but still. The first two lines are usually solidified on competitive teams, its not often you see their third line winger on the “first line”. Interesting to see if TREN does this again.

    On another note I watched all of Ryan Murray’s goals this season (yesterday) and this kid has an accurate slap shot. 5/8 Goals scored near the blue with a howitzer. His most recent goal was on the rush and he put in a rebound near the crease.

    Zack, I am sure you watch more Ryan Murray than me and by no means am I saying he (or his slapshot) are not awesome. I just want to point out a drawback involved with judging players via their highlight clips.

    Did you watch all of his slapshots or just his goals? He could put 9/10 into the crowd but if that 1/10 goes in and makes it onto the highlight reel and then you watch it you’re not exactly coming out with an honest assessment of the guy.

    Anyway, I’m not saying your wrong or picking on your assessment but I’ve seen a lot of comments over the years from Mikhnov and onward where a guy will watch only the best parts of a player’s body of work and come off with the wrong conclusion. Something to look out for.

  8. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: I wonder though if he could handle 4line minutes and PK if the 4line was a little more capable?

    Perhaps, but his spot is needed for Harski, Pitlik, Hamilton etc, in the future as they has the possibility of developing into something more. Petrell is what he is.

  9. CrazyCoach says:

    I’d be interested in seeing what Ryan Murray’s stats have looked like the last stretch here as I believe his partner was suspended for 10 games recently for an off-ice incident. His name slips my mind, but I know he’s a twenty year old and plays quite a bit.

  10. ItsTheBGB says:

    Wouldn’t the 4line be more capable with him not on the team? He’s one of the reason’s they’re dying.

    Also, why is Ryan Jones so inept at getting the puck out of his zone? It’s brutal to watch when you key in on it.

  11. Woodguy says:

    ItsTheBGB:
    Wouldn’t the 4line be more capable with him not on the team? He’s one of the reason’s they’re dying.

    Also, why is Ryan Jones so inept at getting the puck out of his zone? It’s brutal to watch when you key in on it.

    Closely watching Jones without the puck is what made me sour on him so badly.

    He cheats more than Hall for offense and wanders around aimlessly in the Dzone with his eyes on the puck, when he happens to get to the Dzone, which is usually late.

    He reminds me a lot of Brule without the puck.

  12. Ben says:

    So Matt Lombardi is in the restaurant last night with family. Around 8pm he gets a text. Big smile. Laughing. Round of shots.

    Five minutes later he gets another text. Blood drains from his face. Table quiet. Gets up and leaves.

    Grass not always greener, I suppose.

  13. LP says:

    LOL @ BEN

    Question for the draft guys:

    In terms of D, who would pick first? Dumba, Reinhart or Murray?

  14. Bar_Qu says:

    Ben,

    For those of us not in the know, what are you referring too? Wilson’s firing and the hiring of Carlyle?

    Additionally, WG, I think Petrell is a great 4 liner for next year. Put him with Eager and Belanger or another vet C and let them give 8 hard min’s a night with some spot duty on PK. He’s a good player for that. That leaves Hemsky, Hall, Gagner to do what they do, Eberle, Hopkins, Omark to run softs and Smyth, Horcoff, Hartikainen to play shut-down/third line offense. Mind you, I think Omark is gone in the off-season as part of a package deal for D, or simply because they can’t figure out what to do with him and he moves on. Still, lots of vet wingers out there that wouldn’t hurt a couple of talented young players in their play. I still think those other guys are a year away and need to only come up on injury duty. After a year, Petrell is hopefully made redundant by the younger wingers pushing their way up.

  15. Zack says:

    Showerhead: Zack, I am sure you watch more Ryan Murray than me and by no means am I saying he (or his slapshot) are not awesome. I just want to point out a drawback involved with judging players via their highlight clips.

    Did you watch all of his slapshots or just his goals? He could put 9/10 into the crowd but if that 1/10 goes in and makes it onto the highlight reel and then you watch it you’re not exactly coming out with an honest assessment of the guy.

    Anyway, I’m not saying your wrong or picking on your assessment but I’ve seen a lot of comments over the years from Mikhnov and onward where a guy will watch only the best parts of a player’s body of work and come off with the wrong conclusion. Something to look out for.

    Oh yeah, thanks for the heads up! Interesting you should mention that because up until recently I’ve actually never really thought that hard about highlights. That’s just what they are, highlights. I read an interesting comment a week or two ago in regards to Grigorenko. A fan stated that he was at the game where the Remparts were on the PP and Grigorenko tried dance between a number of players twice and both times the puck ended up in his end on a dump. The third time it ended up working and boom, it was a pretty play on the highlight real.

    I was fortunate enough to attend a World Juniors game this year when Canada played Czech, and it was the only time I’ve seen Murray play in person, the rest on the tube during the tournament (which of course is not as good). What stood out though is how much he utilized his slap shot to score goals and how the scouts really hadn’t mentioned it much. Here’s some quick and dirty notes I took on his goals.

    Goals

    2011 Playoffs
    #1 EV – Mar 30 POR BACK – Deke backhand top shelf right near the crease

    2011/2012 Regular Season

    Goal# Even Strength/PP/SH – Date/Opponent – Date – Shot – Description

    #1 EV – SEP 28 VAN | WRIST – Right from the left face-off circle took a pass from behind the net
    #2 EV – OCT 11 PA | SLAP – BLUELINE – Right off the blue line from a pass back to him
    #3 EV – OCT 14 SAS | SLAP – BLUELINE
    #4 EV – Jan 8 POR | SLAP – BLUELINE – Rushing in from center winds up a cannon of a slapshot right as he crosses the blue line on the rush
    #5 SH – Jan 13 POR | WRIS – HASHMARKS – Wrister from the hash marks pretty close to the goalie
    #6 PP – Jan 14 KAM | SLAP – BLUELINE – 10ft Wicked slapshot ~10 ft from blue – from a pinch to keep it in?
    #7 EV – Jan 25 SPO | SLAP – BLUELINE – Few Feet Wicked Slapshot a few feet from the blue line (received from pass)
    #8 EV – Feb 3 POR – | REBOUND -CREASE – Close Rebound (“garbage goal”), drove to the net

    In the highlights I only saw two other slapshots, both times they made the net. Personally, my favourite goal he scored was on Jan 8th, he came rushing in from center, wound up as he crossed the blue line and shot it in.

    Like most people I assume, I’ve only seen most of these kids a handful of times and I can’t make accurate decisions based on what I saw alone. Instead I rely a lot on the media (TSN/ISS/NHL Scouting etc), comments from forums and then more personal things like interviews and during the combine season fitness stats (where I have a firm grasp to interpret data). I feel my education really helps me out a lot when assessing development but I’m just another fan.

    On another note, I’ve seen Dumba play multiple times (from Red Deer but currently in Edmonton) and from the little I’ve seen of Murray, I think it would be a much wiser decision to take Murray. That’s just my two cents though.

  16. Zack says:

    Looks like he scored again last night!

    #9 PP – Mar 3 SEA – | REBOUND -CREASE – Near the crease he put in a rebound while players were collapsing around the net.

    Last nights win put’s Everett in the 8th playoff spot. It would be nice to get an extended look at Murray.

  17. Bos8 says:

    Of course you keep Petrell. It took him a half season to adapt to a different game but he’s playing honest hockey since. Until there is someone better to replace him the man is earning his salary. If he was the worst player on the team then there might be a reason. Jones gets a pass until lately – he was full value for his PB time and hasn’t improved much since. When was the last time Jones stood up someone at the blueline? Boinking someone on the boards after the puck is gone looks good on the hit counter, is totally useless and puts you out of the play. When was the last time Jones anticipated a play? Hordichuk and Jones taking up valuable oxygen.

    Petrell is exactly as advertised and has performed to his hockey card. I wonder why they haven’t tried him on faceoffs?

  18. Woodguy says:

    Bar_Qu:
    Ben,

    For those of us not in the know, what are you referring too? Wilson’s firing and the hiring of Carlyle?

    Additionally, WG, I think Petrell is a great 4 liner for next year. Put him with Eager and Belanger or another vet C and let them give 8 hard min’s a night with some spot duty on PK. He’s a good player for that. That leaves Hemsky, Hall, Gagner to do what they do, Eberle, Hopkins, Omarkto run softs and Smyth, Horcoff, Hartikainen to play shut-down/third line offense. Mind you, I think Omark is gone in the off-season as part of a package deal for D, or simply because they can’t figure out what to do with him and he moves on. Still, lots of vet wingers out there that wouldn’t hurt a couple of talented young players in their play. I still think those other guys are a year away and need to only come up on injury duty. After a year, Petrell is hopefully made redundant by the younger wingers pushing their way up.

    I like your lines, but that assumes that:

    1) They move Jones, he’s under contract for another year
    2) Harski can handle toughs. He’s a rookie, that’s probably too much for him, but 10 and 94 on the same line will surely help.

    I think Jones is a better NHL player than Petrell.

  19. Captain Obvious says:

    Petrell is a not an NHL quality hockey player. He isn’t fast and he has bad hands. Putting him on the fourth line because he does the little things right just shows how backwards the conventional wisdom concerning lineup construction really is. The fact that Renney keeps running useless hockey players like Petrell and Hordichuk out there when he has actual hockey players at his disposal demonstrates that Renney doesn’t know what he is doing. Every minute of the game matters. If you throw away five to ten minutes of the game on players that aren’t going to score and are going to get scored against you’ve put yourself in a hole for no reason.

    Hockey is a very simple game. It is very obvious how to build a good team. The fact that insiders think there is some kind of mystical formula for building a hockey team and are always talking about finding the right “piece of the puzzle” is evidence of their mythological thinking. It’s actually an interesting anthropological experiment. Listening to hockey people talk is a gateway to the preliterate days of myth in which daemon rule the earth.

  20. FastOil says:

    Lowetide: I wonder though if he could handle 4line minutes and PK if the 4line was a little more capable?

    LT Petrell is the main reason the 4th line is bad.

  21. Ben says:

    BarQu: Yes. Watched it happen in real time…

  22. FPB94 says:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/jim-harris/robocalls-scandal_b_1305397.html?ref=canada

    Haha. I know we’re not supposed to talk politics. But that’s just too funny to pass by.

    Classy bunch of guys those conservatives.

  23. rich says:

    The numbers show good on Petrell, but here’s my question/contention. So scoring chances were 5-2 w/Petrell playing w/Eberle and the Nuge…but was Petrell really carrying the water or simply benefitting from better quality linemates.

    Further, and I give credit to Dennis King for admitting this just now on your show LT, Petrell didn’t finish!

    Hey – I’m all for signing him again next year as another 4th line winger – you need depth and if he’s in the 10-14 range that’s good. But top 6? Not buying it.

  24. OilClog says:

    If Petrell is swedish for Omark.. then sure sign the man!

    What organization other then our lovely Oilers would keep guys like Omark in the A.. while Petrell, Hordi, even freaking Barker are playing on our Bigs.. Yes I would take Omark over Barker as a D.. I’m sure it couldn’t be anyworse and in no time Omark would quickly be behind potter for points by a D. Of course this is all fantasy in my head, as it’s clear Omark is a bum.

  25. Bar_Qu says:

    Ben,

    Wow. Carlyle must be a real Captain Bligh then.

    Woodguy,

    Honestly, you could swap Petrell, Harski and Jones in those different wing positions according to whomever is hot at the moment. The beauty of having 12 F on the roster to go with your 6 D. You sit the one with the cool hand and play your top producers at the moment. And with the Oilers you can always count on freak injuries (I think that is one of the main reasons the Oilers don’t have a big piano in the catwalk – too big a risk of it causing injury).

  26. sliderule says:

    Klefbom gets two goals and an assist in last two games.

    This gets him same number of goals that Larsson got last year.

    Until recently Kllefbom was getting no PP time.

    Anybody know what it takes to buy out Fajestad contract?

  27. Bar_Qu says:

    FPB94:
    http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/jim-harris/robocalls-scandal_b_1305397.html?ref=canada

    Haha. I know we’re not supposed to talk politics. But that’s just too funny to pass by.

    FPB – you need to read Coyne to get a balanced perspective on that issue. Your man there is foaming at the mouth and playing loose with facts. Cons did some dirty stuff, but it didn’t change the outcome of the election.

    Sorry, that’s all I will say about that.

  28. FPB94 says:

    Bar Qu: So they did that for the lulz?

    IMO. Doing that + Constantly stalling supervising powers over the government is dirty enough.

  29. Woodguy says:

    Bar_Qu:
    Ben,

    Wow. Carlyle must be a real Captain Bligh then.

    Woodguy,

    Honestly, you could swap Petrell, Harski and Jones in those different wing positions according to whomever is hot at the moment. The beauty of having 12 F on the roster to go with your 6 D. You sit the one with the cool hand and play your top producers at the moment. And with the Oilers you can always count on freak injuries (I think that is one of the main reasons the Oilers don’t have a big piano in the catwalk – too big a risk of it causing injury).

    But if you have Petrell, Harski and Jones all on your NHL team, you do not have a very good team.

    One is enough.

    Harski would be my choice if he didn’t shit the bet at TC next year.

    The bloom is off Jones based on how he’s being deployed, I’d guess Renney hates cheating for offense and defensive cluelessness as well.

  30. rich says:

    Woodguy – that would be a good reason as to why Renney hates Omark, but I’ll bet Omark won’t be in North America next year – especially if Renney is still coaching the team. So then it comes down to Harski or Petrell and I’d ask why you don’t have both in Edmonton next year?

    Also, I hope MPS is back…so Renney can continue to screw him up.

  31. bill needle says:

    I get tired of everyone using the zone starts stat as proof that players like Belanger, Horcoff, Petrell and others are “sheltering” the young Oilers that actually score goals once in a while.
    Those guys really take defensive draws to “shelter” the fans from having to witness their incompetent offensive exertions.
    Letting Belanger, Horcoff, Petrell and others take offensive draws basically says to the other team, “We’re going to cede any chance of scoring goals on this shift; you can rest your good defencemen.” So you let those guys take defensive draws not because they’re necessarily better than the rest of your guys in their own end, just that they decrease the chances of your team scoring by a lesser amount than when actual offensive threats are on the ice.
    As for Petrell being on the ice for five Oiler scoring chances against Dallas, I don’t know what game the scoring chance tallier (aka martyr for the cause) was watching — there wasn’t five real scoring chances by both teams the entire game. It was as boring as watching a PBS pledge drive.

  32. Woodguy says:

    rich:
    Woodguy – that would be a good reason as to why Renney hates Omark, but I’ll bet Omark won’t be in North America next year – especially if Renney is still coaching the team.So then it comes down to Harski or Petrell and I’d ask why you don’t have both in Edmonton next year?

    Also, I hope MPS is back…so Renney can continue to screw him up.

    Am I willing to wage that Omark plays in the NHL next year.

    I am not willing to wager that its with the Oilers.

    As far as both Harski and Petrell, given who is signed my depth chart on RW looks like:

    Hemsky, Eberle, Jones, Harski (assuming Omark is traded)

    I have no room for Petrell unless you move Jones, and I think Jones is a better NHL player than Petrell.

  33. Woodguy says:

    bill needle,

    I get tired of everyone using the zone starts stat as proof that players like Belanger, Horcoff, Petrell and others are “sheltering” the young Oilers that actually score goals once in a while.
    Those guys really take defensive draws to “shelter” the fans from having to witness their incompetent offensive exertions.

    Its not just zone starts (which certainly help), but the ability to draw the 1st pairing D with one line (today its Hall, Gagner, Hemsky), so players like RNH and Eberle don’t have to play against the best defenders in the NHL.

    Playing against Duncan Keith is much tougher than playing against Nick Leddy.

    The night Gagner got 8 points, Duncan Keith was even on the night (in terms of +/-)

  34. D says:

    Woodguy: He’s 27.
    Doesn’t fit the mould of a player to develop.
    He was a stop gap brought in to shore up a dismal 4v5, but has shown poorly 5v5.

    Good point. I missed on his age. I agree at this point he would be considered a stop gap measure.

  35. hunter1909 says:

    Lennart is a very interesting hockey player who should certainly be offered a contract for next season, two way.

    I think oilers are playing very good interesting hockey, and many of the fans are spoiled and already taking these geniuses for granted. My point is, they’re developing well, ridiculously well for a 29th place team…almost like they’re gunning for playoffs/lottery with no other possible outcome.

    FROM THE FIRING HIS COLLEGE BUDDY BRIAN BURKE PRESS CONFERENCE: First off, Brian Burke is hilarious.

    Wears his heart on his sleeve, LOL.

    “This is how I do things”.

    Turns progressively redder as presser goes on.

    BURKE DOESNT FAULT THE FANS: Kevin Lowe take note.

    Burke’s message for the Leaf fans: “As long as you don’t chant anything racist, or homophobic, or obscene, You Can Say Anything You Like!

    Burke also made an obtuse shot at MacT and Khabibulin.

    I pity the Leaf fan. A lot of them are normal, well adjusted people.

  36. spoiler says:

    Bar_Qu: FPB – you need to read Coyne to get a balanced perspective on that issue. Your man there is foaming at the mouth and playing loose with facts. Cons did some dirty stuff, but it didn’t change the outcome of the election.

    Sorry, that’s all I will say about that.

    This gave me a good laugh. Especially since no one public is in possession of all the facts yet.

    The Post has spent most of the last two days downplaying the alleged illegalities by regaling us with stories of dirty tricks in past elections, (without of course any mention of the 2006 financing scandal). Now why would an allegedly balanced media use past bad behaviour of others to frame this scandal, before all the facts are known?

  37. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Late to the party, but Congrats to Bruce! Althoug, I’m excited and rolling my eyes at the same time. It’s great the Oilers are beginning to embracing advanced stats, but what the hell took so long?

    As one poster said – obviously teams like SJ, Bos, Det have been doing something like this for years. So what took K Lowe so long to figure out – hmmm these teams are in the top 3rd of the league year after year – what are they doing differently or better than us?

    It’s like KLowe and Karen Lee had a movie night last week and rented Moneyball. Hey honey, what a great idea – looking beyond the box scores to evaluate players!

    It’s also comforting to hear Burke scoff at advanced stats. So gald he’s in TO.

  38. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    So basically Petrell delivered at PK but can’t really hack it at evens? that’s the story right?

    It seems to me that the question about his future has to go meta. Do we need a PK specialist/do we have room on the roster for a PK specialist? Or, can we find a player to duplicate his PK prowess without the liability at evens?

    A lot of the signings over the break last summer suggested targeted moves: Petrell (PK); Belanger (FO); Eager/Hordichuk (toughness).

    In that light most of those signings have turned out. A bigger question might be: can we afford a roster spot and crucial TOI on specialists?

    If all we need is a PK guy: re-sign Petrell. He’s cheap and he’ll do that job pretty well. But I don’t think this kind of compartmentalized thinking is going to build a hockey team.

  39. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    No, he has the worst GAON/60 of the Oiler forwards who average more than 1min/60 on 4v5

    Here’s the list:

    ENNARTPETRELL 8.92
    ANTONLANDER 7.39
    SHAWNHORCOFF 5.88
    RYANSMYTH 5.53
    ERICBELANGER 4.85
    RYANJONES 4.42

    You can argue that he doesn’t really bring value there either.

    In fairness, here’s the same numbers with their ONSV% 4v5:

    LENNART PETRELL 8.92 .791
    ANTON LANDER 7.39 .833
    SHAWN HORCOFF 5.88 .894
    RYAN SMYTH 5.53 .896
    ERIC BELANGER 4.85 .902
    RYAN JONES 4.42 .907

    A little bit more proof that your best PKer needs to be your goalie.

  40. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy,

    Ok. so is it fair to say this

    Petrell and Ryan Smyth have the best 4×5 CorsiRel’s among Oiler forwards.

    is a radically incomplete stat?

    What other numbers might be relevant (serious question)?

  41. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I think that Shots against per 60 is a good stat for evaluating Pkers. They cannot prevent goals, but they should be able to limit the number of shots.

    Here’s the same list with shots against per 60:

    SHAWN HORCOFF 49.8
    RYAN SMYTH 47.4
    ERIC BELANGER 44.4
    RYAN JONES 43
    ANTON LANDER 36.9
    LENNART PETRELL 33.7

    By this metric Petrell does very well.

  42. speeds says:

    Re-signing Petrell would seem kind of strange to me at this point, just as I found the timing of the Sutton re-signing somewhat strange.

    Presumably the team is looking at something like:

    94, 4, 83, 14, 10, 89, 93 as 7 of their top 9 F’s, with guys like 20, 55, 28, 57, 23, and 91 all either potentially in the plans or waiver eligible, ignoring the possibility of drafting a F and having him on the roster. That’s 13 F’s before looking at UFA’s or other farm players (outside the 3 Swedes)

    So, I could see them looking to retain Petrell if they move some of those other guys out (perhaps for a D?), but tough to see why they’d make a move any time soon there.

  43. Woodguy says:

    Top 15 NHL Forwards 4v5 SA/60. Minimum 1min/60 4v5: (listed 15th-1st)

    PATRIK ELIAS 35.3
    TROY BROUWER 35.1
    TRAVIS MOEN 34.8
    MATHIEU DARCHE 34.7
    MAXIME TALBOT 34.7
    MATT READ 34.6
    PASCAL DUPUIS 34.5
    JAY MCCLEMENT 33.7
    LENNART PETRELL 33.7
    COREY PERRY 33.2
    MICHAEL FROLIK 32.9
    LOGAN COUTURE 32.4
    LARS ELLER 31.8
    NIKLAS HAGMAN 31.8
    DANIEL WINNIK 30.7

    Interesting players there.

    That Read kid shows up on another list.

  44. gogliano says:

    The problem with Petrell isn’t Petrell it is Renney’s use of him. The 4th line gets too much time if they’re trying to win games. I’m happy with a 4th line that plays spot duty and is otherwise filled with specialists. At evens if you want to give the 4th line more time you could easily double shift a winger here and there as well.

    He is a great PKer. This team can use that. Paying him low money and having him meet a specialized need seems like a decent enough strategy to me–it avoids having your top players sucking wind after a PK kill.

  45. FastOil says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    To me if you want a good team, as many of your players as possible have to be “good” players. If you can find some that are good with particular stengths great. None should be weak players with a strength.

    To me the only players that should be let off the hook for pulling weight 5v5 are players like RNH etc., elite skilled forwards, and even that isn’t to my liking. It’s a hurdle that hurts the Canucks especially when they play teams with centres that can play power vs power. Of course it’s hard to build a team like that, and player’s performance fluctuates, but the knowledge is out there now to make this a lot easier, and the smart teams are taking advantage and staying on top of the heap.

    The less babysitting the better, especially if (or when for the Oilers) injuries happen, and definitely not for role players or defensemen.

  46. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy,

    Shit… thanks for digging that up. That’s a more complete, if more complex and maybe even frustrating to analyze picture.

    I’m a adv. stats. luddite so building a picture of a player with them is still difficult for me. But looking at Petrell (on the PK only) I see:

    postive: CorsiRel; Shots against

    negative: goals against

    is that right?

    So… does that mean to account for the difference between shots and goals against you’d have to factor in shooting percentage? I’m guessing it’s higher for the opposition during their PP (is that right?). Could that explain the discrepancy (or some of it)?

    Regardless… if that is the total picture (or a good portion of it)… how would you value his PK contribution?

    To my novice eyes it looks like he is moving the puck in the right direction and limiting shots against but being let down by the goalie (which is maybe to be expected more on the PK anyway?) and possibly getting burned by a unseasonably high shooting % (again, which maybe skyrockets on the PP)?

    am I getting closer?

    (for internet’s sake… all of this is serious. not trolling)

  47. melancholyculkin says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Out of all the guys getting significant PK time, Petrell is getting the least TOI. His SA/60 rates are impressive and I think it would be fair to say that he’s been having some bad luck in terms of the goalies sucking behind him. Shot rates tend to be more predictive than goal rates going forward, so I imagine if the Oilers did bring him back his GA/60 would go down because he’d get an average SV% next season.

    The fact that he’s last in terms of TOI at 4v5 is pretty significant I think. It says to me that even though he looks good by shot rates, the coaches don’t feel he’s that integral to the PK.

    It should be fairly simple to find a guy who’s better 5v5 and similar in ability 4v5 in the summer, so I see no reason Petrell should be on the team in October.

  48. hunter1909 says:

    Enjoying the Habs v Leafs game, end of 1st period.

    Good guys(I’m half french lol) are ahead 1-0, the Leafs aside from Kessel are terrible everywhere, the Habs only in both ends of the ice. PK Subhan looked like a superstar in the 1st minute then disappears, lol.

    Methinks the only way forward is to do everything possible to ensure the Kids stay together for as long as possible; no team in the NHL has anything like these three, plus Gagner who’s no bum anymore.

  49. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Oh. man cherry is losing it right now. forget Burke vs. Lowe behind the barn. I’d like to see Cherry vs Burke.

  50. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    FastOil,

    melancholyculkin,

    Yea… that’s basically what I was trying to say in my first post: it’s better to find someone who can reproduce his PK prowess without the liability elsewhere…

    But… looks like the team is sweet on Petrell, so I’d expect a one year extension in the off season:

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=619982

  51. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I’ve never thought of looking at RelCor 4v5.

    I think SA/60 might give a better picture of PK ability, but that should be balanced with QC (are you facing the 1st PP team or 2nd most of the time)

    postive: CorsiRel; Shots against

    negative: goals against

    is that right?

    I think that’s right.

    You have to look at GA/60 in context of SV% as well. Its been proven that players on the ice don’t influence ONSV%, or at the most influence it so little that it doesn’t matter.

    Petrell’s ONSV% is terrible and no question that is influence his GAON/60

    There are 46 goailes who have played at least 20 games in the NHL this year.

    The median 4v5 SV% is GS Giguere with .873

    You can take that and say Jones, Belanger, Smyth and Horcoff have received better than average SV% behind them, and Petrell and Lander have received less than average goaltending.

    Its interesting to note that among goalies with 20+ games played Khabby ranks 4th in 4v5 SV% with .916. DD ranks 37th with .842.

    Then you look at what the coach thinks by looking at TOI/60, and Petrell ranks 6/6 among the forwards listed for the Oilers, so Renney uses him the least.

    Hope this helps, I am by no means the burning bush on this stuff.

  52. Woodguy says:

    melancholyculkin:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Out of all the guys getting significant PK time, Petrell is getting the least TOI. His SA/60 rates are impressive and I think it would be fair to say that he’s been having some bad luck in terms of the goalies sucking behind him. Shot rates tend to be more predictive than goal rates going forward, so I imagine if the Oilers did bring him back his GA/60 would go down because he’d get an average SV% next season.

    The fact that he’s last in terms of TOI at 4v5 is pretty significant I think. It says to me that even though he looks good by shot rates, the coaches don’t feel he’s that integral to the PK.

    It should be fairly simple to find a guy who’s better 5v5 and similar in ability 4v5 in the summer, so I see no reason Petrell should be on the team in October.

    Agreed all points.

  53. Lowetide says:

    I’d like to count (should have done it) the number of times Petrell makes a move in the offensive or neutral zone that breaks up a sortie. He plays a little like Dave Keon did, which is to say real estate is extremely valuable.

    Saw him good is a bad argument to make, but he does seem to be able to help the PK.

  54. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide: Saw him good is a bad argument to make

    I agree. We don’t want to enjoy this, do we?

  55. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy,

    Well… you are putting in the work to sort through the numbers and I’m reaping the benefits… so burning bush or not, you get my immense gratitude.

    Lowetide,

    judging from Renney’s comments… Petrell’s “effort” and “affability” have gone a long way to endearing him with the club. For “saw him good” he definitely gives the appearance of someone turning every gear he’s got to get the job done and you’ve got to respect that for what it’s worth.

  56. Bos8 says:

    In passing – Pitlick and Paajarvi with goals tonight.

    I still like Petrell more than Jones, ehh it is what it is.

    What no one seems to focus on, is that MPS and Petrell get dinned into them. Defence first, defensively responsible. So being the sincere types, this is what they focus on, do their job well and get dinged. I’ve said many times I don’t like Jones for the stupidity he brings to the ice. We call him “After the fact Jones”.

    To my mind MPS is not getting the coaching that he needs up here. So, I’m happy as hell that he’s down in OKC. I’ve always maintained that the first ten games don’t count, it’s the next ten that tell the story. So, Magnus getting games and playoffs are all good. As a fan you want your team to be cutting edge, quality people in developmental jobs – and then you have Bucky and Smith. Ookay.

  57. hunter1909 says:

    To my mind MPS is going to end up a valuable member of this team within 2-3 years.

    If they trade him, Tambellini’s out of his mind. MPS is already NHL ready defensively, and basically was from the very first game he played as a rookie.

    MPS’s worst case scenario: Radek Dvorak. The type of player championship teams employ.

    HOW’S ABOUT: They hold a beauty contest for the Kids? Any local girl is eligible to apply, lol. Have The Kid Line as judges, then everyone hopes wedding bells(and glad to remain in town) follow.

  58. Lowetide says:

    Pitlick 1-2-3 +2 in his last 3. Not Gretzky, but progress.

  59. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bos8,

    Lowetide,

    What’s the path for him onto the team with C already kind of jammed, esp. if we pick Grig? I gather he can’t wait Horc’s contract out and Bel might be a stretch too… so injury or trade to get him a spot? Barring injury… I gather he’d have to really, really push it in the AHL to get a cup.

  60. Lowetide says:

    Too soon to say. Pitlick might end up being a checking RW for all we know. The important thing is to make progress and lately he seems to be doing some good things.

  61. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide,

    agreed. completely. you can never discount progress in a player.

    the other important thing is that Van is down 3-0 5 mins in! and lu is out! hahahaha!!

  62. Lowetide says:

    Crazy period in VAN, Romulus. Vancouver is such a strange team.

  63. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Gabe Desjardin put in all the work, but thanks.

  64. copperblueandwhite says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Oh. man cherry is losing it right now. forget Burke vs. Lowe behind the barn. I’d like to see Cherry vs Burke.

    I thought Grapes was going to go postal…his all Ontario rant tonight was funny.

  65. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Pitlick 1-2-3 +2 in his last 3. Not Gretzky, but progress.

    Linemates change?

  66. Lowetide says:

    WG: That’s my guess. AHL for rookies is a dizzying combination of healthy scratches, 4thline and push.

  67. spoiler says:

    Canucks are gifted a powerplay. What are the odds.

  68. Bos8 says:

    I’m really interested in what’s happening in OKC. Normally a highly rated prospect goes to the AHL and gets all the bon bons and fans salivate at what’s coming up. That is not happening with Pitlick and Hamilton. You get healthy scratches etc. I listened to an interview with Nelson and he talked about, adapting, play away from the puck and so on. Paajarvi spent a very short time in OKC and came back doing different things so I’m really curious about what happens with Pitlick and Hamilton. It’s time the Oilers started to fill out the roster below the kids and Smyth, Horcoff and Belanger are not on the agenda.

    The main thing that intrigues me is talent and size. God help us, except for Hall the kids are small and you can only shelter so many. To me the first priority is a big winger for the two munchkins. So the Petrell thing was not a biggie. I’d like them to give him more time up there. The answer might not be Petrell but it does give you an idea of what the other two can do with more room.

  69. Bos8 says:

    The season is toast, the perfect time to try things with no penalty, so Renney does this and the screaming on here was hilarious. Helloo

    Apparently Hamilton is injured and expected to be out six to eight weeks, in other words for the season.

  70. spoiler says:

    Bos8:
    The season is toast, the perfect time to try things with no penalty, so Renney does this and the screaming on here was hilarious.Helloo

    Apparently Hamilton is injured and expected to be out six to eight weeks, in other words for the season.

    That is not good news.

  71. Bos8 says:

    On another front Klefa just doubled his goal output, video on HF boards titled, what else – Oscar Klefbom. Pretty good skater for a big D.

    Sure would like to see him at TC. Grow our own Swedish D.

    Twenty games at OKC and Hoorah!.

  72. oilersfan says:

    just listened to nationradio archive from today Lowetide’s interview with Rod Pederson talking about the Pats. LT asked about Marincin and Davidson. He gushed about both of them. He said Marincin reminded him of Chara and he can’t believe the Oilers got him in the second round. He went on to say Davidson is a real leader, very good defensively and very physical. He said Marincin has more size and skill but Davidson brings some things MM doesn’t; leadership, grit, plays 30 minutes a night.

    Crazycoach said a few months ago that MM played 30 minutes a night in PG but Pederson didn’t volunteer MM’s minutes in Regina currently.

    One question i have is if Pederson is too much of a homer, loving his own players. He seems like quite the homer. He thought both players would make the Oilers very soon so that surprised me as I don’t see Davidson being an NHL player. Also he said twice that MM played for Latvia. Not sure if I should write off all he said given that he didn’t know MM is Slovakian, (same as Chara) or if it was just a minor slip.

    Thanks for interviewing him LT. It is good to know both Oilers’ prospects are so highly regarded.

  73. jake70 says:

    The local TV networks in Toronto, TSN and Sportsnet, are saying Ron Wilson is fired. Maybe everyone is aware already? Just wanted to pass that on.

  74. Bos8 says:

    Always liked Carlyle in Winnipeg. He’d stand in front of the net and clear traffic, minimum effort, with his partner doing all the work – Always struck me as the old sharpie

  75. SK Oiler Fan says:

    oilersfan,

    Rod can be a huge homer. Used to call Pats games.

  76. Bos8 says:

    6’6″ D from Latvia turns out to be 6’4″ Marincin from Slovakia – Yeah, cred.

  77. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Bos8,

    I liked the part where he said (paraphrasing) “If Marinicn can be another Chara, Oilers will have a good one on their hands”. Uhhh, yeah.

  78. regwald says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    ya, and if Pitlick or Hamilton turn into the next Kesler and Bunz into the next Broudeur and … and … and …

  79. Lowetide says:

    The big surprise for me during that interview was the Pats fading so badly in the city of Regina. When I lived there–this was more than 20 years ago–Pats were THE game in town when the Roughrider season ended.

  80. VOR says:

    Am I the only one who is wondering about Tencer’s comment about ST’s two more defencemen?

    If you think about the Oilers history with d-men could we predict what two D they may have in mind?

    I am not claiming that the Oilers have ever used any sort of statistical analysis for D but quite a number of d-men they have acquired look statistically similar. They get poor zone starts, turn them into good zone finishes, often give up fewer shots per 60 than their team, their on ice SV%s are consistently better than their team (which if you can do it over years and against tough competition is probably a proxy for altering shot quality), they give up fewer goals per 60. Most of this is also true when they are penalty killing. They do all this against top competition by and large.

    Lets call them Jan Hedja tree D. Nick Schultz is just the latest example. So given that, who might be on the Oilers shopping list by FA signing or trade?

    It actually isn’t a very long list. It would include Ryan Suter and Shea Weber but I am going to guess the Oilers really mean they are done whale hunting.

    The rest:

    Jason Garrisson FA
    Barret Jackman FA
    Bryan Allen FA
    PK Subban Trade
    Mark Methot Trade

    These guys have all demonstrated that they can improve your GAA either by giving up fewer shots (Weber and Suter’s speciality) or by consistently altering the quality of the shots or both (Ryan O’Byrne who also should be at the top the list but I don’t think you could offer enough to get him in trade does both consistently).

    These five guys all block shots, hit people, and except for Subban are calm in their own end.

    I am guessing that part of Schultz’s appeal was he can play both D positions. Garrisson if he gets to FA is going to be target #1 and can’t play RD. Barret Jackman is probably next because he has been reasonably durable, is a great team guy, “good in the room” , played with one team and plays the right side of the ice.

    The dark horses are Shane O’Brien and Nicklas Grossman because they often show up in these categories, not to mention O’Brien fights and plays right. Probably far down their list but still maybe on their radar is Bruno Gervais who looked like Jan Hedja up until this year and is really cheap help. Other than Subban he is also the only natural RD that fits or has fit the pattern and is a UFA.

    So what do you all think? What 2 D-men does ST have in mind?

  81. Lowetide says:

    VOR: Very interesting. Methot was rumored at the deadline, maybe they look again over the summer.

  82. Ryan says:

    Speaking of Petrell, obviously the experiment is reminiscent of the facepalm JFJ 1st line experience as many have noted.

    Though it’s not hard to see that it’s probably a losing strategy (see Patt, Quinn), however, I have wondered if it would be useful to throw a guy like Eager out (once in a while, not for the entire game) for offensive zone draws with the gifted one and Eberle.

    It would give the line a little different look, and Eager’s always well-rested, can actually skate and seems to have a decent shot.

    Am I crazy?

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