NHLE for 2012′s (Forwards)

The 2012 Entry Draft at forward has no Hall vs. Seguin, no RNH vs. Landeskog. The 2012 entry draft is about Nail and all the rest. Or is it?

The top 5 offensive forwards this year don’t resemble the top 5 forwards ranked by Craig Button in his March list.

First, Button’s list:

  1. Nail Yakupov
  2. Filip Forsberg
  3. Alex Galchenyuk
  4. Mikhail Grigorenko
  5. Teuvo Teravainen

I do not have the NHLE for Filip Forsberg’s league, so we’ll have to include him out. Alex Galchenyuk was injured for the entire season, so he’s not on the list, either. However, something’s afoot when it comes to marrying NHLE with this year’s consensus top 5 forwards.

Forwards (per 82 gp)

  1. Tomas Hertl 19-21-40 (Button has him #22 overall)
  2. Nail Yakupov 18-22-40 (#1 everywhere)
  3. Tanner Pearson 16-22-38 (Button has him #43 overall)
  4. Tomas Hyka 11-26-37 (Button has him #42 overall)
  5. Mikhail Grigorenko 16-17-33 (Button has him #7 overall)

Here’s some Hertl video.

This is my first look at all this stuff, before we go too far into the math we have to figure out how to get Forsberg in there and Galchenyuk too (maybe we use last year’s numbers?).

Anyway, it doesn’t usually work this way. The 2010 NHLE’s looked like this for the forwards:

  1. Taylor Hall 17-29-46 (BM #1)
  2. Tyler Seguin 19-22-41 (BM #2)
  3. Michael Granlund 13-28-41 (BM #13)
  4. Vladimir Tarasenko 21-18-39 (BM #16)
  5. Jeff Skinner 19-16-35 (BM #10)

So. Question: Who is Tomas Hertl and how slow is he? Even if he’s Yvon Lambert there’s some offense there.

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44 Responses to "NHLE for 2012′s (Forwards)"

  1. eidy says:

    It looks like Tanner is an overager so that will knick him in the rankings. It also looks like he has had mark schiefele as his centre.

  2. Lowetide says:

    Crazy year. I was reading Redline the other day and he was talking about another 1992 born being a factor.

  3. bookje says:

    You didn’t know, Hertl has sideburns!

  4. Lowetide says:

    Well, maybe he’s a late breaker. This mock draft from a western conference scout has Hertl #17.
    http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=78958

  5. Death By Misadventure says:

    Despite all the negativity surrounding him, the prospect I can’t stop thinking about is still Grigorenko. Maybe it’s because I’m a sucker for the big C types and maybe it’s because I’m tired of the overblown anti-Ruskie rhetoric. Who knows. Last year I had hoped the Oilers would select Couturier and in some ways Grigorenko offers a new opportunity to get that player type.

    In any case, are you gentlemen aware of anyone out there doing a statistic comparison of Couturier to Grigorenko? I’m curious to see if they have more in common than just the league they play(ed) in and size.

    I’m wondering how the two stack up. Is Grigorenko in the ballpark of a Couturier, Couturier lite, or just a useless Ruskie bum (relatively speaking).

  6. Jonathan Willis says:

    Hertl looked pretty good at the WJC’s, as I recall.

  7. Matt.N says:

    Lowetide,

    Same list has Galchenyuk at 19. Hard to imagine he drops that far.

  8. IJ 44 says:

    Red Line scout said this last year

    Tomas Hertl(late 93´) is probably the best (of the 2012 European players other than Martin Frk) but needs to stay healthy. He is big and strong creative playmaker with soft hands, excellent stick skills, vision, smartness. Smooth skater with speed, agility, balance. Slick with puck in tight, tough to separate off the puck, shields the puck very well.

    Sounds like he can`t be too slow

  9. Scott Reynolds says:

    I think it’s fair to question the accuracy of NHLE for the Czech league assuming you’re still using the 0.74 figure. Gabe wrote his work on translations quite a while ago now, and it seems possible that the Czech league has taken a significant step back since then. The country certainly isn’t producing as much NHL talent in recent years, and the league’s leading scorer this year is a 40-year-old Petr Nedved, which doesn’t exactly give me a tonne of confidence in the league’s quality. Still a good prospect obviously, but NHLE might make him look more appealing than he should.

  10. Ducey says:

    Why should we put any stock in Button’s list?

    He couldn’t draft in real life and presumably doesn’t jet all over the world to watch these guys.

  11. Schitzo says:

    Scott Reynolds:
    I think it’s fair to question the accuracy of NHLE for the Czech league assuming you’re still using the 0.74 figure. Gabe wrote his work on translations quite a while ago now, and it seems possible that the Czech league has taken a significant step back since then. The country certainly isn’t producing as much NHL talent in recent years, and the league’s leading scorer this year is a 40-year-old Petr Nedved, which doesn’t exactly give me a tonne of confidence in the league’s quality. Still a good prospect obviously, but NHLE might make him look more appealing than he should.

    That’s probably a very good point – I’d be surprised if the KHL hasn’t siphoned off some of the talent that would otherwise be playing in the Czech league. And the SM-LIGA and the SEL for that matter.

  12. spoiler says:

    Correct me if my memory is wrong, but if Pearson is an over-ager aren’t his NHLEs subject to a slightly different NHLE formula than a draft age kid? I thought Desjardins’ formula came with an age factor. No?

  13. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Crazy game in the peg – Kane ties it up (off his face and in) then Alfie puts another nail in the coffin.

    Man I miss the Oilers being in the hunt for the playoffs – crowd is nuts.

  14. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Dammit, Jets are done. Love that Claude Noel too. fun team to watch – Oilers could use an Enstrom and a Bogosian

  15. Lowetide says:

    Scott Reynolds:
    I think it’s fair to question the accuracy of NHLE for the Czech league assuming you’re still using the 0.74 figure. Gabe wrote his work on translations quite a while ago now, and it seems possible that the Czech league has taken a significant step back since then. The country certainly isn’t producing as much NHL talent in recent years, and the league’s leading scorer this year is a 40-year-old Petr Nedved, which doesn’t exactly give me a tonne of confidence in the league’s quality. Still a good prospect obviously, but NHLE might make him look more appealing than he should.

    Yeah, that makes sense.

  16. sliderule says:

    This draft is not like 2010 or 2011.

    Our scouts are really have to earn their pay or not.

    There are going to be three or four really good players in top four and one bust.You can book it.

    The consensus best defencemen and forward are older draftees and both have been injured.neither of them had a WJC that you would write home about.

    Other top prospects like Galchenyuk and Reilly have missed most of the season.

    Then you have the big center Grigorenko that oilers fandom always wants but always finds reasons to reject.

    What a conundrum!

  17. spoiler says:

    LT

    Did you adjust Tanner Pearson’s NHLE numbers for his age?

  18. Lowetide says:

    spoiler:
    LT

    Did you adjust Tanner Pearson’s NHLE numbers for his age?

    No, the only age adjustment I recall is for 20+.

  19. Showerhead says:

    Wow, the Jets really do it to themselves. They allow WAY too many high quality scoring chances to close games. I have tickets to G82 vs. Tampa though and can’t help but keep hoping that game is meaningful.

    As for this draft, those NHLe’s are pretty wild. Has anyone been talking about Hertl or Hyka as top-5 talent before today? With all of the unknowns it still looks like Yakupov and the rest but as usual, I’m not going to know a damn thing until Bob McKenzie lays it out for us just prior to the draft.

    Go… Oilers?

  20. oilersfan says:

    Grigorenko with 3 assists tonight, is 1,3 for 4 points in 2 games.

    Galchenyuk with 1+1 tonight, is 2,2 for 4 points in 3 games.

    The scouting report has Galchenyuk as the ferocious competitor. If that is the case and the skills are equal I will take the fierce competitor.

  21. spoiler says:

    Showerhead,

    Lowetide: No, the only age adjustment I recall is for 20+.

    From this article, under the heading PPG projections by Age, there’s a chart that I can’t see and then a paragraph that says this:

    In the aggregate, players reach their peak performance level at age 22 and hold it for several years. What’s most significant about this chart is what it implies about the age at which a junior player posts a particular PPG. A 17-year-old player with 2 PPG in Junior can expect, on average, to score 1.5 PPG in the NHL at age 22, while an 18-year-old Junior doing the same thing has an NHL projection of 1.0 PPG, which is 40 fewer points over the course of a season. This is the difference between elite players (Joe Sakic, Denis Savard, Dale Hawerchuk) and much lesser players (Jimmy Carson, Terry Yake, Mike Bullard.)

    I really wish I could see that chart. But this does seem to infer there’s a 1/3rd haircut. It refers to 22 yo season, but I would think that within a reasonable range, it’s pretty consistent through the different age cohorts.

  22. Lowetide says:

    Makes sense, and with Pearson being 19 that’s a double whammy. Certainly reason to nick him based on it that’s for sure.

  23. gd says:

    oilersfan,

    Grigerenko is playing a very weak team in the first round, so I sense we should wait until the second round to evaluate him. Galchenyuk is playing a better team. If he performs well in the playoffs and
    looks healthy, he becomes very intriguing at 3 or 4.

  24. oilersfan says:

    The coppernblu had some sort of study a year ago verifying spoilers comments, basically knicking the nhle if the player is 18, then more of a knick if they are 19 and even nore if they are 20.

    Not sure if Scott or someone can get us a link to the article.

  25. rickithebear says:

    spoiler: Did you adjust Tanner Pearson’s NHLE numbers for his age?

    To establish: use the curve range and apply appropriaty
    additions starting with sept
    Desjardins curve for the 17 year season is .5 to .75
    with .2 additions per month
    18 year season .4 to .5
    .85 additions per month
    19 year season .35 to .4
    .4 addition per month

    it establishes an expected ceiling based on the junior age curves.

  26. Lowetide says:

    rickithebear: To establish: use the curve range and apply appropriaty
    additions starting with sept
    Desjardins curve for the 17 year season is .5 to .75
    with.2 additions per month
    18 year season.4 to .5.85 additions per month
    19 year season .35 to .4
    .4 addition per month

    it establishes an expected ceiling based on the junior age curves.

    So, walk me through this. The OHL NHLE is x .3, and then you nick that total by another .45 in the case of Pearson? Which would make it 82, 7-10-17 NHLE? Is that correct?

  27. spoiler says:

    From what I can tell, Gabe’s NHLE Junior Leagues data ends at 2004. Not sure if the other equivalencies are up-to-date either (which would be a shame since the lockout could have helped greatly with setting League difficulties).

  28. Lowetide says:

    spoiler:
    From what I can tell, Gabe’s NHLE data ends at 2004.

    I don’t think there’s a lot of change since then, although the QMJHL likely deserves a bump to join the others. His NCAA and USHL work is more recent iirc.

  29. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: I don’t think there’s a lot of change since then, although the QMJHL likely deserves a bump to join the others. His NCAA and USHL work is more recent iirc.

    Even Gabe admits to the limits of the predictive value of his functions. We would know more about those ranges if the sample sizes were bigger. 8 years is a fair chunk of time (more than 20% of his dataset). And the lockout would have given a lot of league-to-league data.

  30. rickithebear says:

    LT: desjardins curve are consitent in structure. the expected ceiling reduces each month.
    17 year old season is .75
    18 year old season is .5
    19 year old season is .4
    20 year old season is .35
    21 year old season is.32

    there is a 12 month period in the age. so for the 17 year old season.
    sept .52 nhle
    oct .54 NHLE
    nov. .56 NHLE
    all the way to august .74 NHLE
    noticed this curve trend right from the begining.
    an age factor based on a .3 league

    When i look at other leagues i divide there league value by .3 and multiply that factor to the players production to get a rough

    Way back in the summer of the intro of desjardins. itis how I stated Schremp as a 51pt ceiling.

    Example:

    Curtis hamilton: 10- 11 with the blades
    Dec.birth day 18 year season .44 NHLE
    82pt/62GM = 1.33 x .44 = .58 X 82 = 48Pts.

    Pitlick: 10-11 MH
    Nov .43 nhle
    1.1PPG x .43 = .47 X 82 = 39 Pts.

    these have allways been my expected ceilings for these two.

  31. spoiler says:

    A ceiling is not an equivalency.

    And from what I can tell, Desjardins nicks the older ages a lot harder than that.

  32. spoiler says:

    In fact, Ricki, looks like you have completely different numbers, as LT and Gabe use .30 for 17 yo CHL to NHL equivalencies.

    Also, Gabe says this:

    So in a qualitative sense, it’s obvious in this case that a 17-year-old player’s performance predicts a much better career than a 20-year-old’s stats. But there is also a strong quantitative relationship between past and future performance. Based on the performance of thousands of drafted players, we can predict how many points a player will score in the NHL when he’s 21-years-old. If he’s 17, four years later, we expect him to score at 72% of his junior rate. But if he’s 20, on average, he’ll retain just 26% of his scoring.

    So it looks like you’re translating to an older age than LT, and also not nicking enough for age.

    I do prefer the 21 yo benchmark though. Seems more useful.

  33. oilersfan says:

    72% of Gagner’s draft year would be around 80 points. Still waiting

    Still hope for RNH, also around 75-80 points

    Hall would be 75

  34. rickithebear says:

    spoiler: A ceiling is not an equivalency.
    And from what I can tell, Desjardins nicks the older ages a lot harder than that.

    The potential to grow as a player is quite interesting consistent with Core strength age 18 -22
    the 17 year old junior who plays in the nhl has an expect nhl production. the further long in age the less chance for increase in potential. Simple sports science. the curves are smaller.

    The symetry of the curve. 1st season for the 17 year old to 1st season of 18 year old to first season of a 19 year old to 1st season of 20 yerold generates a line.
    same for the second years.

    That kind of result symetry from a set is not fluke. it is a proven trend. The curves remain symetrical but smaller in one month segments. resulting in linear reduction.

    So yes ceiling is an unfair term. but at age 22 ( the end of Core development) a player has established a close to flat line on the curve. not to expect extensive growth. A kind of Ceiling.

    I do wonder if these curves could be further sub grouped by height /weight. Do the larger players have londger core development? Showing diffrent curves.

    Looking at 100 juniors only showed a lack of variance. i do this for every prospect.

    Tomas hertl the nov player getting .65PPG in a league rated at .7 has the potential to be a 70 point NHLE at age 22.

    Brendan Gaunce: 55 point at 22. rank #
    Timothy Bozan : 55 point At 22

  35. rickithebear says:

    spoiler: n fact, Ricki, looks like you have completely different numbers, as LT and Gabe use .30 for 17 yo CHL to NHL equivalencies.

    thatis the mistake. yep it tells us what we can expect at age 18 when he plays. but desjardins curves clearly establish expectation at age 22. .74% of 17 year old junior scoring.

    so when drafting a player do you wanto know what you already know. his .30 NHLE from that year.
    .30 is the begining point of expected production.
    Nhle from the bottom of the curve tells me shite. cause all the curves start there but vary by age.

    in between 17-18 the ceiling is .5 (sept 93) to .74 (august 94)
    in between 18-19 the ceiling is .4 to .5
    in between 19-20 the ceiling is .35 to .4

    No you want to know a rough expected ceiling. So you catch the 2nd and third round steals from draft pasts that should have never made it to the bottom or past the 1st round.

    So taylor hall 1.85 X .56 the best we should expect is a 1ppg.

    Do run into the odd variance.

  36. Matt.N says:

    rickithebear,

    I am interested in your methodology. Would you be open to sharing your numbers from last years first rounders and oiler picks as well as this years?

  37. vishcosity says:

    Is there any consideration for the quality of players on the prospect’s team? I think Sam Gagner played with Patrick Kane, and for it his numbers are clearly a bit higher than maybe they would be otherwise.

    Thinking about Ryan Murray, I wonder how his projections would fare if he played for a contender.

    Or, maybe there could be a variable added for GF / GA on the team or something.

  38. Scott Reynolds says:

    oilersfan,

    It’s a couple of years old now (I’ll probably update it before the draft), and the samples are quite small, but I think you’re probably thinking of this article:

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2010/7/6/1554759/on-nhl-equivalencies

  39. spoiler says:

    vishcosity:
    Is there any consideration for the quality of players on the prospect’s team?I think Sam Gagner played with Patrick Kane, and for it his numbers are clearly a bit higher than maybe they would be otherwise.

    Thinking about Ryan Murray, I wonder how his projections would fare if he played for a contender.

    Or, maybe there could be a variable added for GF / GA on the team or something.

    PP time, and just plain TOI are huge variables too.

  40. spoiler says:

    Ricki said:

    in between 17-18 the ceiling is .5 (sept 93) to .74 (august 94)
    in between 18-19 the ceiling is .4 to .5
    in between 19-20 the ceiling is .35 to .4

    I don’t see where Gabe says that. If that is your function Ricki, you’re going to need to show some data for it. I don’t think you can pull those numbers by inference alone. Or at least if you do go by inference alone, the error ranges are going to be much larger. From what I can tell, Gabe is going off all 17yos as a discrete cohort when he says .72 of their scoring will come through at age 21.

    And he clearly has 20 yos lower than you from the quote I posted above.

  41. fuzzy muppet says:

    oilersfan:
    Grigorenko with 3 assists tonight, is 1,3 for 4 points in 2 games.

    Galchenyuk with 1+1 tonight, is 2,2 for 4 points in 3 games.

    The scouting report has Galchenyuk as the ferocious competitor. If that is the case and the skills are equal I will take the fierce competitor.

    Grigorenko also was a whopping +1 in a game his team won by 8 goals. He also won 7 of 19 faceoffs. He’s not exactly a two way player and cant win faceoffs against Kids let alone grown men. How is this going to help the Oilers become a playoff team??? He won’t help next year for sure so KEEP WINNING GAMES.

    Look I understand the argument that Forwards are easier to project and usually develop quicker, but lets be honest, Grigorenko, or any forward outside Yakupov, isn’t going to help this team next year anyway.

    Take the BPA, if Stu deems that to be Murray or any other defender, so be it.

    I’d prefer they package the pick with prospects for some immediate help somewhere on the roster. Otherwise they’re starting to look like the Islanders of the west…perennial losers with a roster full of kids incapable of making a serious run at contention.

  42. honkey says:

    Some of you might find this useful in how to rank Filip Forsberg.
    If you compare how his stats fare against others Swedish players drafted out of Hockeyallsvenskan(our TIER II league). Its kind of a short list since most of the players are drafted from SEL teams.

    2006 Draft saw Patrik Berglund drafted 25th by the Blues.
    2005-06
    21GP 3G 1A 4P

    2006-07
    35GP 21G 27A 48P

    2007 draft: Mikael Backlund drafted 24th by you know who.
    2006-07
    18GP 1G 2A 3P

    2007-08
    37G 9G 4A 13P

    Last year William Karlsson was drafted by the Ducks late in the 2nd round(53rd).
    2010-11 Stats:
    14GP 1G 3A 4P

    2011-12 Stats:
    46GP 12G 33A 45P

    This year …
    2012 draft: Filip Forsberg??
    2011-12
    43G 8G 9A 17P

    So compared to other forwards drafted out of Hockeyallsvenskan and their point production, its easy to understand the big interest.

    Alot has happened since Berglund(and Backlund) posted his numbers, its pretty safe to say both SEL and Hockeyallsvenskan has become much weaker league overall. The emerging of KHL has messed things up quite a bit. SEL clubs has been forced to find players in hockeyallsvenskan to replace either their own star players that has moved to Russia or just to fill spots on the roster that would normally been some kind of a foreign player(maybe a finn or a czech). The current CBA has also made SEL and Hockeyallsvenskan weaker since a lot of young players have signed contract and moved to NHL quicker than expected, like Tedenby, MPS and Lander for example.

    As for Forsberg and his ice time its quite hard to determine how much he plays, but he has been listed mostly as a 4th liner all season long. So if the roll the lines which is quite common here, it would be around 10 min a game or so.

    Hope this can spread some light over Forsberg and how to weigh his current production.

  43. Wolfpack says:

    fuzzy muppet: Grigorenko also was a whopping +1 in a game his team won by 8 goals. He also won 7 of 19 faceoffs. He’s not exactly a two way player and cant win faceoffs against Kids let alone grown men. How is this going to help the Oilers become a playoff team??? He won’t help next year for sure so KEEP WINNING GAMES.Look I understand the argument that Forwards are easier to project and usually develop quicker, but lets be honest, Grigorenko, or any forward outside Yakupov, isn’t going to help this team next year anyway. Take the BPA, if Stu deems that to be Murray or any other defender, so be it. I’d prefer they package the pick with prospects for some immediate help somewhere on the roster. Otherwise they’re starting to look like the Islanders of the west…perennial losers with a roster full of kids incapable of making a serious run at contention.

    I could not agree more. If ever there was a year where I was in favour of the Oilers trading down out of the 2, 3 or 4 spot, this is it. If they could find a way to aquire a defender who was far enough along to help them out next year, I think that would be a solid move. Identify a team with some solid young defenders who might want to make a big splash at the draft this year and make a deal that helps the Oilers now and the other team a year or two down the road. That is the kind of move I am hoping for, though it does put a whole new level of expectations on the Oilers’ pro and amateur scouting staffs.

  44. Dalton says:

    vishcosity: Is there any consideration for the quality of players on the prospect’s team? I think Sam Gagner played with Patrick Kane, and for it his numbers are clearly a bit higher than maybe they would be otherwise.

    Dude, more like Patrick Kane played with Sam Gagner… :)

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