Rubber Stoppers of the Future!

Tyler Bunz is the latest in a fairly long line of Oiler goalies drafted in the last decade from the CHL. Bunz’ final junior season has been very good to exceptional–he currently leads the league in save percentage and boasts a 39-15 won-loss record. Is Bunz the best goaltending prospect Edmonton has drafted in the last 20 years?

Bunz SP number is .923 and compares well to the other Oiler draft picks and their final junior season save percentages:

  • Bunz .923 (1st WHL)
  • Jeff Deslauriers .916
  • Devan Dubnyk .912 (tied for 12th WHL)
  • Oliver Roy .911 (tied for 4th in QMJHL)
  • Bryan Pitton .911 (tied for 9th OHL)

I can’t find the JDD SP for his season. We know SP’s are a moving target and they are trending toward 1.000 as the seasons roll by, but Bunz has a nice number. We also know that teams can contribute toward good SP’s based on their style of play, but the backup in Medicine Hat has an .899SP so this does look like a case of a goaltender delivering at a high level.

Bunz might not even be the best goalie in the system. Olivier Roy is at .927 with Stockton of the ECHL and that’s good for third in the league–best among rookie pro’s. Roy is backstopping a struggling team too, and has a matching save percentage in a small AHL sample.

The Oilers have Roy ready for AHL play next season and Bunz may end up in Stockton for a season based on the Oilers own established goalie path. Questions:

  1. which goaltender is the better prospect at this point in time?
  2. what level should each play in 12-13?

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82 Responses to "Rubber Stoppers of the Future!"

  1. bookje says:

    I don’t know.

  2. Lowetide says:

    Me either.

  3. matmik says:

    Any update on the Finn who they drafted in the 3rd round?

  4. bookje says:

    Though I am glad to be talking about ‘Goalie Prospects’ and the ‘Oilers’ in non fairy tale terms. That seems like a good thing.

  5. Lowetide says:

    Matmik: the Finn Tuohimaa has been exceptional in Fin Jr, impressive in Fin 2 and struggled in SM-Liiga. I’d say it has been a good year for him overall.

    Perhonen has been less impressive in his season but I don’t think we could call it a poor year.

  6. PunjabiOil says:

    1. which goaltender is the better prospect at this point in time?

    Bunz very clearly. He has followed up with 2 very good seasons in the WHL. Roy meanwhile posted a .913 and .911 SV% in his 18 and 19 year old seasons, lost his starting job as a 19 year old, and exposed his weaknesses at the WJC. His size will work against him at the NHL level.

    2. what level should each play in 12-13?

    Bunz should be the backup in the AHL next year, sharing duties with a guy like Yann Denis.

    Roy perhaps back in the ECHL. We can’t make too much out of his successful ECHL season. JDD posted a .940 SV% down there in a stint.

  7. Maverick says:

    I think it is a toss up right now between the two of them. Both are at least 2-3 years away from helping the NHL club. So far it seems management doesn’t really understand the goaltender position, Devan Dubnyk and the Bulin wall really are not the answer. Could that Euro free agent goalie everyone was talking about last summer still be in the picture? I think his name was Victor Fasth?

  8. regwald says:

    I sure it is clear as mud.

    Roy is starter for WJC. Win for Roy.

    Roy melts down and struggles as tournament continutes. Win for Bunz.

    Roy’s final junior season is one to hide under the matress. Win for Bunz.

    Bunz cut from final WJC roster. Win for Roy

    Bunz shooting out the lights in his last junior season. Win for Bunz.

    Roy shooting out the lights in Stockton in his first pro year . Win for Roy.

    Hell, i thought the meltdown at the WJC and then the follow up season all indicated that Roy had little future. Kudos to him for taking the bull by the horns having a great rebound year.

    I think Bunz is the real deal. Lets see what happens in the next 3 years.

  9. Lowetide says:

    Fasth won the SEL goalie of the year courtesy a brilliant regular season.

  10. Maverick says:

    With Fasth being the SEL best goalie NHL teams will be lining up to sign him aka like “the Monster” in Toronto when he was available. It didn’t turn out to well for Toronto but would the Oilers be open to addressing the goaltender position by chasing Fasth? Is it worth the risk? Or will they wait and see what these two kids will do and how they will develop?

  11. Lowetide says:

    I wish they would, but don’t think the Oilers do much in the goalie department this summer.

  12. spoiler says:

    I find it difficult to eliminate team effect when talking about small differences in SV%. But there is no doubt that Bunz is having a quality year on a team that had a fair amount of top end turnover in it’s ranks.

    I would give Bunz 20 games in the AHL, and if he shows no signs of wilting, I’d bring him up for a 5 game audition in The Show.

    I’m sure I read something last summer, probably from Matty, that said the Oil feel they have a future #1 in Bunz, but don’t feel that way about Roy or Doobie.

  13. Dipstick says:

    I would not rush either of them to the NHL. Roy should get a look at the AHL level based on his season. If he can handle half the workload he should stay there. Bunz should start the season in the ECHL and get a lot of playing time. The organization is doing it right this time. Remember the clusterf**k of a season when the Oil shared an AHL affiliate and JDD got royally screwed in his development. Only lots of playing time will tell whether either of these two will develop into NHL players.

  14. cabbiesmacker says:

    Not sure if we’d be ahead in the wins column with a 4 x 6 sheet of plywood playing goal the past 5 games.

    Pts

    Eberle (4)
    Horcoff, Smyth, RNH (3)
    Hall, Gagner (2)
    Hemsky (1)

    Thankfully the D’s been chipping in…cough

    Whitney , Schultz (2)
    Potter, Petry (1)

    Sad.

  15. Trites says:

    Dipstick:
    I would not rush either of them to the NHL.Roy should get a look at the AHL level based on his season.If he can handle half the workload he should stay there.Bunz should start the season in the ECHL and get a lot of playing time.The organization is doing it right this time.Remember the clusterf**k of a season when the Oil shared an AHL affiliate and JDD got royally screwed in his development.Only lots of playing time will tell whether either of these two will develop into NHL players.

    Dipstick:
    I would not rush either of them to the NHL.Roy should get a look at the AHL level based on his season.If he can handle half the workload he should stay there.Bunz should start the season in the ECHL and get a lot of playing time.The organization is doing it right this time.Remember the clusterf**k of a season when the Oil shared an AHL affiliate and JDD got royally screwed in his development.Only lots of playing time will tell whether either of these two will develop into NHL players.

    Dipstick,

  16. hunter1909 says:

    Dubnyk’s simply got to leave the oilers, if they’re serious about contending in future. Khabibulin’s washed up, as soon as his contract runs out, so he’s no one to depend on either, leaving oiler’s with exactly ZERO quality goalies in 1 year from now.

    Whitney’s gone in a year thankfully, unless Tambellini’s insane enough to think he’s got anything left in the tank.

    I said the tank.

  17. cabbiesmacker says:

    hunter1909:

    Whitney’s gone in a year thankfully, unless Tambellini thinks he can continue to contribute to the tank.

    Fixed it a tad for ya.

  18. Bruce McCurdy says:

    The concern with Bunz at this point is concussions. He’s had two (or three, depending how you count them) in the past 12 months.

    One thing that doesn’t show up in Bunz’s save percentages is his puckhandling skills, which are far superior to Dubnyk’s already and still improving. Bunz has led the Dub in goalie assists the past 2 years, so he can be aggressive, but it’s more a matter of general competence handling shoot-ins and feeding the puck to, you know, guys on his own team.

    Btw, do you care that the pic up top isn’t Bunz? It’s either Kenny Cameron or Deven Dubyk, Bunz’s backups from the past two seasons who both wore #33 in the Hat.

  19. Bos8 says:

    Somehow I wound up carrying the Klefa for the Klefbom. Onward and Upward.

    Today posts per HF Boards poster – First game of the playoffs.
    ————
    Won game 1 away 4-1.

    By far the best game of the season and we dominated the game totally.
    I have never ever for the last 15 years seen us play like that in their arena.

    Klefbom played 17.34. +-0 with 2 hits. Played like a boss today, physical and involved in some scrums. Solid as ever.

    Next game at home on tuesday. Come on!

    ————
    Pretty much 100% defense from him tonight. The whole team played all defense the first period. Last time we played HV away we were down 0-3 after 10 minutes. Learned from that.

    He won some really important battles along the boards and was able to move the puck from our zone. Really great and hard work.

    ————–

    We use to roll around on all D pairs but think Frögren and Brodin match the top line from HV. Klefa only played 1 minute less than Brodin tho so the first two D pairs were evenly matched.

  20. Lowetide says:

    thanks, Bruce. Hey, are you available for Nation Radio soon? I’d like to ask about the oiler think tank but won’t if you can’t talk about it. There’s plenty of other stuff to discuss (Oil, Oil Kings, etc).

    Anyway, thanks.

  21. bookje says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    The concern with Bunz at this point is concussions. He’s had two (or three, depending how you count them) in the past 12 months.

    One thing that doesn’t show up in Bunz’s save percentages is his puckhandling skills, which are far superior to Dubnyk’s already and still improving. Bunz has led the Dub in goalie assists the past 2 years, so he can be aggressive, but it’s more a matter of general competence handling shoot-ins and feeding the puck to, you know, guys on his own team.

    Btw, do you care that the pic up top isn’t Bunz? It’s either Kenny Cameron or Deven Dubyk, Bunz’s backups from the past two seasons who both wore #33 in the Hat.

    You know what, I don’t think we have reflected long and hard enough on the fact that there is a Deven Dubnyk and Deven Dubyk who have both been WHL goalies. It’s like God made a weird copy-paste error combined with a autospellcheck action at some point.

  22. Bruce McCurdy says:

    LT: Thanks. Send me an email.

    That’s a better picture now. :)

    Bookje: I have had a few laughs over the improbablity of two guys with similar surnames and given names, playing the same position in the same province. (Dubyk was in the Hat last year, in Red Deer this.) It’s not like they’re both named John Smith, either. It’s very weird.

  23. Bruce McCurdy says:

    PS: The other guy in the new picture, Levko Koper, had a look at Jets camp but ultimately became a U of Alberta Golden Bear this past season.

  24. Woodguy says:

    I posted this in the MTL GDT:

    Interesting goalie stat for the Oilers (I think LT had these up the other day)

    5v5 SV%

    DD .921
    Nik .912

    4v5 SV%

    DD .843
    Nik .913

    Nik’s the only goalie with 20+ games to have a better 4v5 SV% than 5v5. BIg aberration there.

    Someone was talking the other day about DD not being mobile enough from side to side.

    I wonder if that’s why his 4v5 is so bad this year.

    Last year:

    5v5 SV%

    DD .921
    Nik .905

    4v5 SV%

    DD .889
    Nik .815

    Nik was awful last year 4v5.

    Interesting that DD is posting the same number 5v5 as he did last year.

    DD’s .925 5v5 ranks him 26th among NHL goalies who have played at least 20 games this year.

    I don’t think you throw him away yet.

    At the very least he’s a capable back up.

    He may be more yet, he’s only played 89 NHL games.

    Odometer is still near showroom condition.

  25. Showerhead says:

    bookje:
    Though I am glad to be talking about ‘Goalie Prospects’ and the ‘Oilers’ in non fairy tale terms.That seems like a good thing*.

    The sentence you are currently reading exists, somewhat ironically, because I thought “THIS!” or “QFT!” would add insufficient value at the same time as thinking that echoing someone without writing anything would be bad form.

    Woodguy:
    I posted this in the MTL GDT:

    Interesting goalie stat for the Oilers (I think LT had these up the other day)


    DD’s .925 5v5 ranks him 26th among NHL goalies who have played at least 20 games this year.

    I don’t think you throw him away yet.

    At the very least he’s a capable back up.

    *Ditto.

  26. Lowetide says:

    I think we’re getting a clearer picture of DD. imo the Oilers should keep him but acquire a solid option like Ben Bishop to do battle and play them as a tandem. Doubt it happens this summer though.

  27. Showerhead says:

    As for LT’s questions:

    Are Leneveu and Dan(n?)is both under contract for next year? If so, it would seem the AHL roster is set. Funny that a minor league logjam could exist while the Oilers lack a legitimate starter.

    I do think that Roy has earned the promotion to the AHL and that Stockton would be a great starting place for Bunz. I also think that there’s enough similarity in their track records and noise in junior level numbers to suggest it’s tough to pick a winner here and now, but I’d still bet on Bunz if only for size and the appeal of “1st WHL” beside this year’s stat line.

    Watch them excel, promote them, see what you get. Repeat as necessary.

  28. Showerhead says:

    Lowetide:
    I think we’re getting a clearer picture of DD. imo the Oilers should keep him but acquire a solid option like Ben Bishop to do battle and play them as a tandem. Doubt it happens this summer though.

    The idea sounds good but I still wish there was an option whose peak looked higher than “average NHL goaltender”. I think Edmonton’s roster, as constructed, is still in a position to get outshot and outchanced next year. It’s about damn time they started winning and I think an upgrade in goal is one change that could have immediate impact.

    That said, there’s no more sense in getting rid of Dubnyk than in taking your Impala* to the scrapyard while shopping for a Challenger*.

    (*insert “decent” and “exciting” cars of choice as preferred.)

  29. Woodguy says:

    More from above based on today’s numbers: (min 20gp)

    DD is ranked 21st among NHL goalies in 5v5 SV% (.921)

    DD is ranked 38th among NHL goalies in 4v5 SV% (.843)

    DD is ranked 33rd among NHL goalies in overall SV% (.908)

    Last year (min 20gp):

    DD is ranked 28th among NHL goalies in 5v5 SV% (.921)

    DD is ranked 16th among NHL goalies in 4v5 SV% (.889)

    DD is ranked 24th among NHL goalies for overall SV% (.916)

    I just can’t throw this guy away yet.

    He hasn’t “seized the day”, but he hasn’t made a case to be thrown out either.

  30. Lowetide says:

    Showerhead: Agreed. The Oilers under Tambellini seem to have this plan that includes small steps and at some point they’re going to need to address several things in the interest of balance. Goal should be addressed this summer, but I doubt they do it.

  31. regwald says:

    Lowetide:
    Showerhead: Agreed. The Oilers under Tambellini seem to have this plan that includes small steps and at some point they’re going to need to address several things in the interest of balance. Goal should be addressed this summer, but I doubt they do it.

    It seems like they have a top 10 list of items to address and after two hours they quit at 3. It is a strange approach unless they figure it is bad (because of draft position) to get too good too quick. They continue to accumulate draft picks to the point you wonder if they can even graduate all of last year’s class not to mention what they find in June at the draft.

  32. Bruce McCurdy says:

    This is where that fourth year of the Khabi deal looks worse than ever IMO.

  33. cabbiesmacker says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    PS: The other guy in the new picture, Levko Koper, had a look at Jets camp but ultimately becamea U of Alberta Golden Bear this past season.

    Same Koper that played with Steele Boomer at SSAC in Bantam and Midget? I remember that being a pretty dynamic duo.

  34. cabbiesmacker says:

    Ottawa would be an interesting trade partner, theres a few more as well, with Lehner, Bishop, and Anderson onboard. Wonder which way they’re leaning for next year?

    I wouldn’t mind seeing Anderson here if the Sens were going the youth route. Still a decent age and contract and he certainly performed well in both of his last two stops.

  35. DeadmanWaking says:

    Deven Dubnyk and Deven Dubyk. Terry Gilliam reincarnated as a poltergeist moth. It’s Brazil by Douglas Adams.

    Narrator: There is a theory which states that if ever anyone discovers exactly what the Ministry of Truth is for and why it is here, it will instantly disappear and be replaced by something even more bizarre and inexplicable. There is another theory which states that this has already happened.

    Tambi: The night of the game, you may feel a slight sting.
    Khabi: Oye, I have good mask. Thick gloves too. Relax. Have a drink. You want to lose, I lose. You want to win, maybe for a short while. I have a good mask, but my chick does not spring.
    Tambi: [drowned by the clatter of fresh ice] Your chick does not sting?
    Khabi: Sppppring, you moron. Here, wipe your face. Or maybe it’s me. I learn English from Star Trek. Pavel was always my favorite, but not on the ice. Now I give him some. For you.
    Tambi: Fine by me … but not too flagrant. Every tenth shot, flash the leather like Tom Cruise.
    Khabi: Always with show boats. In America, nothing is flagrant. It all hangs out.
    Tambi: [Mumbles] Ever heard of OJ? [Looks down.] I guess not. Let me think about this. How about I get back to you on term?
    Khabi: Flashing is extra for you.

    I don’t grok the mandate with this management group (do they communicate at all?), so I invented one, and it seems to work: big party in new rink, make noise, at least one round. Don’t care how you do it. Someone old, someone new, someone borrowed, someone Sioux.

    (*) That list broadly includes: Souray, Redden, Tootoo, Tucker, Cheechoo, Cloutier. Guess that was mostly a threat. Reaching further back: Trottier, Fleury, Simon, Nolan, Odjick. (If you can’t list three differences between Sunni and Shi’a, you’re working with fat brush strokes already.)

    (**) Vanek played junior hockey for the Sioux Falls Stampede. OK, that’s a stretch, even for me.

    Here’s a tidbit by the father of the made-in-Brazil programming language Lua:

    Actually my last name is quite difficult for Portuguese-speaking people. It is a Russian name, liberally translated from the Cyrillic alphabet by some immigration officer when my grandfather came to Brazil. I pronounce it more or less like this: Ierusalimschy – Ee êh roo zah leems key

    The first-generation Dumbnyk children applied for a spelling change. In Brazil, no-one applies for a spelling change. Not even Sue.

    And the Worst Bad Name Is . . .

    I’m partial to Iona Knipl. And the last response by Mrs Fields to her husband before breaking water: “He’s getting kind of Wrigley.” That article was evidently written before the Google+ real-name policy change. Those names will now get all your Google assets suspended with no appeal.

  36. Showerhead says:

    Lowetide:
    Showerhead: Agreed. The Oilers under Tambellini seem to have this plan that includes small steps and at some point they’re going to need to address several things in the interest of balance. Goal should be addressed this summer, but I doubt they do it.

    I see what you’re saying with “small steps”. It looks an awful lot like v3.x thinks his team can move incrementally from the NHL’s basement to its penthouse. With the CBA structured as it is today with respect to 1st and 2nd contracts, I feel that EDM runs the risk of out-waiting its window of opportunity. To make a dating analogy, it’s kind of like taking out your favourite redhead and waiting through dinner, dancing, and the entire walk home to make your move when the best play available was to take off her dress before you got out the door.

    It’s possible the new CBA saves Tambellini from himself though by cutting back costs on 2nd contracts, extending the window of opportunity, and rendering my analogy moot. Mind you, my favourite redhead is coming over later tonight so I’m not sure just how much damn I should be giving about this “moot” business.

  37. Showerhead says:

    Was that a “humble brag”? If so, apologies – dick move.

  38. asiaoil says:

    Make sure you have solid coaching, buy a sundial, acquire the patience of Job, and have almost zero expectations – that’s the recipe developing NHL goalies outside a few elite guys who have the physical tools to cover up early technical problems and lapses of focus. They did the right thing with Roy – now let him move up to the AHL as a backup – might be ready for a starting gig there in 1-2 years. Start Bunz in Stockton – he’s good but not high first round pick – and he’d get ripped apart in the AHL for no good reason.

    As for DD – aside from the obvious issue at 4×5 this season – he’s done pretty much what I had expected and played the number of games that I hoped he would. What happend 4×5? Could be just plain bad luck or he might have been nursing a groin tweak all season that messed with his lateral movement. In any case – thinking about dumping him after 89 games would show a fantastic lack of patience and maturity on the part of mgmt. Laddy Smid took about 300 NHL games to mature as shutdown dman – not unusual for that role in a non-elite guy. How many games does it take for a non-elite goalie to mature? More than 89 – a lot more. So Hunter – you’re ranting – and repeating an unsubstantiated opinion about DD over and over doesn’t make what you say any more true – and it completely ignores how most goalies develop. Chill…….

  39. Traktor says:

    Woodguy:
    More from above based on today’s numbers: (min 20gp)

    DD is ranked 21st among NHL goalies in 5v5 SV% (.921)

    DD is ranked 38th among NHL goalies in 4v5 SV% (.843)

    DD is ranked 33rd among NHL goalies in overall SV% (.908)

    Last year (min 20gp):

    DD is ranked 28th among NHL goalies in 5v5 SV% (.921)

    DD is ranked 16th among NHL goalies in 4v5 SV% (.889)

    DD is ranked 24th among NHL goalies for overall SV% (.916)

    I just can’t throw this guy away yet.

    He hasn’t “seized the day”, but he hasn’t made a case to be thrown out either.

    Big Ben! Parliament!

  40. Traktor says:

    Sven Baertschi just scored his first. Best Calgary draft pick since.. a long, long time.

  41. Woodguy says:

    Traktor: Big Ben! Parliament!

    You win most forced use of that meme in a place it didn’t fit.

  42. D says:

    I believe if the Oilers ever contend again for the Cup, Tyler Bunz will be the goalie who backstops that team. Something about Edmonton goalies with four letters in their last name…

  43. Traktor says:

    Woodguy: You win most forced use of that meme in a place it didn’t fit.

    Copy and pasting the same post 10 times doesn’t make DD any better or counting on him any less stupid.

    Glencross with his 25th. Only 20 more than Hemsky.

    Tom Gilbert just registered a point. Buy a lotto ticket.

  44. Lowetide says:

    I’m thrilled for Glencross, thought he was terrific in EDM. You can’t hate a guy just because his first two organizations were too stupid to know what he was. I know his 26. 4 shooting percentage can’t sustain but the guy is a good hockey player. Rugged, skilled, tough, can play with creative forwards.

    We don’t need one of those.

  45. DeadmanWaking says:

    Someone needs to introduce Iona Knipl to Randy Pierce.

    Worst (best?) hyphenated names after marriage I’m pretty sure Beaver-Wetter was just the announcement caption. Damn, watch where you slide the hyphen.

    There’s no making up Wendt-Adaway, but that one has no newspaper text. If you’re a young, athletic Wendt-Adaway, what sport would you take up?

    Beaver is from French. I guessed that much.

    Recorded as Wetter, Witter, Wheater, Whether, Whittier, Whittear, and Whitehair, this unusual and interesting surname is English. … [From] “hwit”, meaning white, and the suffix “-er”, to imply a worker.

    (Rolls eyes: At the Surname Database, we’re all special snowflakes.)

    So that whole whitewash fence sequence in Tom Soiler was a sly subtext. He’s really a Wetter: a bedwetter. “Freud noted that bedwetting was related to ambition.” Hmm, I wonder where that’s going.

  46. Woodguy says:

    Traktor: Copy and pasting the same post 10 times doesn’t make DD any better or counting on him any less stupid.

    Glencross with his 25th. Only 20 more than Hemsky.

    Tom Gilbert just registered a point. Buy a lotto ticket.

    I didn’t say anyone could count on him.

    Thanks for putting stuff in my post that isn’t there.

    Perhaps I should re-post it 11 times to help you with your reading comprehension.

  47. Traktor says:

    Woodguy: I didn’t say anyone could count on him.

    You would keep him, right?

    So clearly you are counting on him to be effective or you would look somewhere else.

  48. DeadmanWaking says:

    My vote: Fox Hunting, freestyle heats.

    If not sports, psychiatry. “Paging Dr Wendt-Adaway to the courtesy phone beside the 3rd floor laundry chute.”

    Hospital emergency codes

    “Doctor” codes are often used in hospital settings for announcements over a general loudspeaker or paging system that might cause panic or endanger a patient’s privacy. Most often, “Doctor” codes take the form of “Paging Dr. _____”, where the doctor’s “name” is a code word for a dangerous situation or a patient in crisis. e.g.: “Paging Doctor Firestone, third floor,” to indicate a possible fire in the location specified.

    I wouldn’t go down that chute fortified by a pint of Vancomycin, unless right after a GATACA cleaning cycle. Each to his own.

  49. Traktor says:

    Lowetide:
    I’m thrilled for Glencross, thought he was terrific in EDM. You can’t hate a guy just because his first two organizations were too stupid to know what he was. I know his 26. 4 shooting percentage can’t sustain but the guy is a good hockey player. Rugged, skilled, tough, can play with creative forwards.

    We don’t need one of those.

    Yeah, even if he was a just a 10 goal guy he would still be an effective NHL player. He has 2 less goals than Hossa.

  50. Woodguy says:

    Traktor: You would keep him, right?

    So clearly you are counting on him to be effective or you would look somewhere else.

    Most available right now are not clear upgrades and he doesn’t have enough games to know what he is with a reguar work load.

    Even if you trade for a clear upgrade or sign one he’s not the one you get rid ofm

    Flush Khabby and add another goaile is what I’d do.

  51. bookje says:

    D:
    I believe if the Oilers ever contend again for the Cup, Tyler Bunz will be the goalie who backstops that team.Something about Edmonton goalies with four letters in their last name…

    Yeah, I loved Gage and Salo as well.

  52. DeadmanWaking says:

    Find Marriage and Family Therapist in Delavan, Wisconsin: Wendt-Holloway for your specific needs.

    This is from the Google link summary. Thought I had a winner. Unfortunately, such a doctor does not exist. The summary is a weird pastiche of SEO nonsense. Spoken with a certain accent it’s a mass prison break. With a different accent, it’s the dew-drop morning after.

    Suit Nazi: No white wedding for you, Ms Wendt-Holloway.

    What’s your first name, honey?
    Ineva.
    Cool. Sounds Russian.
    I’m not Rushin.
    Wanna get hitched?
    Maybe you’re right … after that, I’m Rushin.

    Looks like the Suit Nazi was wrong again.

  53. bookje says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Bookje: I have had a few laughs over the improbablity of two guys with similar surnames and given names, playing the same position in the same province. (Dubyk was in the Hat last year, in Red Deer this.) It’s not like they’re both named John Smith, either. It’s very weird.

    LT – Now that LT.com is a money making machine, I think it would be appropriate to fly (and by fly I mean bus) Deven Dubyk up to Edmonton and pay for lunch between Deven Dubyk and Devan Dubnyk at a cafe in Devon.

    You could call it:

    “The Lowetide Homonumos Mentoring Extravoganza – Deven and Devan in Devon”

    I bet it would make the front page of the Edmonton Journal.

  54. Lowetide says:

    lol. I wonder if he’ll confuse people when he reaches the NHL. There were two John Stewart’s when I was a kid, two Bob Kelly’s too but they cheated and called one of them J Bob.

  55. ItsTheBGB says:

    Could you see the Oilers letting both Danis and Leneveu(?) go and having Roy and Bunz as the goalies? It’s primed for disaster, but I am very high on Bunz and Roy has shown well, too.

  56. VOR says:

    How many games do we need to see from Devan Dubnyk to know what he is likely to be in the NHL?

    Statistically speaking we lose some of the noise at about 150 games and can make a very good forecast at 200 games. Before these thresholds total SV% is the better indicator of long term value so for the rest of this discussion I will focus on that rather than EV SV%.

    If all we are interested in is career SV% we can start making informed decisions about Dubnyk when he passes the median number of career games for an NHL goalie and begins to move towards the average number of games.

    Since we don’t have much math that is predictive I would suggest we look at the effect an average NHL goaltender would have had on the Oilers goals against if they replaced Dubnyk. Over the last three seasons the average NHL goaltender had a save% of .910 and Dubnyk was .907. Over the last two years, the average NHL goaltender had a save % of .912 and Dubnyk has a sv% of .912. Now lets consider that the average goaltender would have made no difference to the # of goals the Oilers have given up if they replaced him over the last year and 68 games. That means any improvement would have been in Dubnyk’s first year and would have resulted in us giving up 7 fewer goals. So an average goalie would have saved us 7 goals over 232 games or .03 goals per game if they replaced Dubnyk.

    Now ask yourself, how much does an average NHL goalie make? Dubnyk has been great value for money, and that is putting it mildly.

    The problem, I think, is that most of us don’t recognize average quality NHL goaltending when we see it. We are blinded by the fact that Dubnyk has given up 30 more goals in the equivalent of 84 games of full time work than an average goalie on an average team. Only 7 of those goals is him being worse than average, 23 are the Oilers being worse than average.

    So a lot of fans are determined that we should dump Dubny. How many points do we think that 7 goals over 232 games meant? Even if we made it 7 goals over 84 games? Zip all. So if we really want to improve on Dubnyk we need an above average NHlL goaltender that will play for no more than (their career SV%/Dubnyk’s career SV% * Dubnyk’s salary) to get the same value. Hmm, anyone have a candidate (looks to me like the only two hopes are Emery and Montaya if we are going the UFA route and even then I bet they cost more and have no true replacement value).

    It would seem the smart move would be to let Dubnyk take over #1 and see what happens. As he gets closer to the statistical thresholds we will know a great deal more about his true value in terms of game impact.

  57. cabbiesmacker says:

    Traktor: Yeah, even if he was a just a 10 goal guy he would still be an effective NHL player. He has 2 less goals than Hossa.

    He’s no Hossa but it still hurts that LowExpectations let him go for nothing while he f’d the dog chasing something he had zero chance of landing.

  58. rickithebear says:

    Since start of Jan.
    DD .908 Sv%
    NH .873 SV%
    That is all!

  59. Bar_Qu says:

    Totally OT, but just got back from watching the Hitmen and Rebels. I watched Dumba the whole game as I sat in the Rebels end and they were outplayed significantly. Obviously, I have only seen him in one game, but he seems very small (even for the WHL), and a much smarter looking D man than advertised. He had his head on a swivel all game and I thought he was less physical than the draft reports say.. A leader too, from the look of the way he acted on the ice.

    I don’t know him from Murray, but I don’t know that he has the physical capability to push a 6’3″ 210 guy out of the crease. And I wonder if he has the tools to be an upgrade on MAB.

  60. rickithebear says:

    Voukon 3YR @…..

    .920 SV% 31Shots per game 65 games 161goals 2.47GA

    Oh please!

  61. rickithebear says:

    All 6’0″ dmen are MAB until otherwise. With the reapearance of clutch and Grab. 6’0′ dmen scream run!

    Unless they are 6’0″ 220Lbs of muscle and fast.

  62. Bar_Qu says:

    6’0″? I would dispute that height listing. I saw him near Petrovic, who looked full value for 6’4″, and Dumba was very small next to him. I would guess he’s more like 5’10″, 11″ tops.

    Definitely 173lbs though.

  63. SK Oiler Fan says:

    VOR,

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but are you saying the Oilers are getting a deal for an average goalie in DD? I’d gladly accept a more expensive goalie if he’s going to perform above average.

    As well, I believe D showed a few posts ago that DD’s standard deviation for his sv% is all over the map which has cost the Oilers about 7 points in the standings (assuming the same GF).

    Year by year sv% is a convenient way of ranking goalies and I believe it is accurate in most cases, however consistency matters when you’re playing 82 games

    Regarding Bunz – he also showed well in camp and preseason action.

  64. Traktor says:

    Vor:

    Wouldn’t it make more sense to look at the teams that made the playoffs? That’s the goal, right?

    There are a lot of shitty goalies that are going water down the % to give league wide average but we should only be looking at the average of goalies that made the playoffs. That would give us a better indication of what we need.

    Below I looked at the average sv % of starting goalies from playoff teams from the last 3 years. Interesting that it is trending upwards (I’m not sure if this year follows that trend).

    2008/2009: 914
    2009/2010: 916
    2010/2011: 920

    Dubnyk’s career .907 sv% over 89 games suggests that Edmonton should look elsewhere.

  65. Lowetide says:

    Well, and this is just me, but how many playoff goalies are playing in front of defensemen like the Oilers 6? That should count for sometihng, God knows.

  66. "Steve Smith" says:

    rickithebear:
    All 6’0″ dmen are MAB until otherwise. With the reapearance of clutch and Grab. 6’0′ dmen scream run!

    I haven’t counted the syllables, but that feels like Haiku.

  67. Traktor says:

    Lowetide:
    Well, and this is just me, but how many playoff goalies are playing in front of defensemen like the Oilers 6? That should count for sometihng, God knows.

    I’m not sure but I assume Edmonton would be higher in the standings if they had Henrik Lundqvist. They might even be in the playoff hunt.

  68. Lowetide says:

    Traktor: I’m not sure but I assume Edmonton would be higher in the standings if they had Henrik Lundqvist. They might even be in the playoff hunt.

    Sure, any time would be better with Lundqvist. Vancouver, for example.

  69. Traktor says:

    Lowetide: Sure, any time would be better with Lundqvist. Vancouver, for example.

    Well if a goalie can make a good team better they could certainly make a shitty team better.

    Take heed Tambellini.

  70. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Traktor,

    I believe D showed that if the Oilers had received NHL average goaltending for every game they would be in the playoff hunt. Obviously DD and NK do not make up an NHL average goaltending tandem and any thoughts of running with this pair again to start next season with aspirations of making the playoffs is craziness.

    So STs options are for 12/13:
    1. Buy out NK and bring in a guy with at least a chance to be an improvement over DD and let them battle it out for starts.
    2. Get rid of DD and sign or trade for an obvious upgrade over DD. with an intent to play him for at least 60 games with NK playing the remainder.
    3. Status quo and miss playoffs again.

  71. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Option 4: Replace both NK and DD with upgrades.

    Options 1,2,and 4 certainly aren’t impossible even for ST, but why do I get the feeling He’s banking on option 3? Another year wasted.

  72. DSF says:

    Lowetide:
    Well, and this is just me, but how many playoff goalies are playing in front of defensemen like the Oilers 6? That should count for sometihng, God knows.

    That, of course, makes the need for an above average goaltender even more acute.

    As Traktor points out, surely the goal has to be at least on par with playoff team goaltending and, if your defensive corp is below average, which seems a likely scenario for the foreseeable future, your best ROI would likely be above average goaltending.

    If you fill a roster with average players you’re likely to get average results.

    In the NHL, average is pretty shitty.

  73. SK Oiler Fan says:

    The D certainly isn’t guaranteed to be improved for 12/13 and there’s a chance it gets worse if ST and KLowe continue to experiment in this area.

    An upgrade in G is a necessity, and also realistic. I used to constantly bang the improve the D drum, but since “D” did a great job of showing the effect the 11/12 Oilers G had on their place in the standings I’ve placed improve the G at the top of the shopping list.

  74. Thinker says:

    Dubnyk is a top 30 goalie in this league at present. I’m not sure if he’ll improve but by definition that makes him a starting goalie. Problem is top goalies and mediocre goalies are a far ways apart, and mediocre goalies are more common than sand. I think if the oilers are to compete, they need at least a top 16 goalie playing ahead of dubnyk. I took a litlle survey to see how important a good goalie can be. I took the sa of pekka rinne(most against(1845), and probably most games(62) you could expect a goalie to play in one season) and multiplied them by save percentage to find the difference of goals against between goalies at different intervals.
    League best. 1731 .938
    16 place(playoff calibre,theoretically) 1692 .917 -39ga of leader
    Khabibulin 1681 .911 -50ga of leader
    Dubnyk. 1675 .908 -56ga of leader
    *note: an extra fifty saves would likely have us in the playoff race
    Khabi has to go hes been trending down since we signed him. In fact his signing triggered the rebuild. Hopefully tambo signs a capable goalie in the summer, and maybe khabi can be tge starter in okc (i know his hit still counts but at least hes gone).

    If we are sticking with the rebuild, and prospects working their way up idea, roy will be backup in okc, and bunz will start in stockton. Whether the oil will bring back danis, or sign someone else this will be the plan. I think managements goal is to have prospects slowly take over the roles of the minor league vets so one day the oilers will have a steady stream of prospects coming through the system. A good plan actually. Not sure if either roy or bunz is number one material but one can hope.

    At the draft i’d like to see the oilers to pursue andrei vasilevski, even if it means trading up. All the stuff ive seen about him is impressive. Scouts say he is at the level of a 24 year old already, and he would be a great number one goalie prospect. If mbs figures subbans better we could go for him instead.

  75. "Steve Smith" says:

    DSF: In the NHL, average is pretty shitty.

    In the NHL, average is a low playoff seed.

    We can debate whether that’s “pretty shitty” or not, but it would be a hell of a step up for the Oilers.

  76. regwald says:

    Here’s some food for thought:

    GA for the 16th best team works out 220 goals against this season and the Oilers are on pace to give up 241 goals. That’s a difference of 21 goals. That works out to 1 goal every four games. I am not sure that goaltending is the issue we are making it out to be. Sure, the Blues are on pace to give up 151, which is a huge difference. but even 2 and 3 (LA and NYR) are on pace to give up 172 goals.

    If you look at the top 16 SV% in the league for goalies they range from .938 to .918 for the 16th best save%. That is Luongo, followed by Vokun and Fluery at .917.

    Khabi is at .911 and DD at .908 for 33rd place.

    Who wants noted goalie like Ward @ .912, Pavelec @.911 Niemi, Harding, Hedberg, Anderson are all at .913.

    I think if you are on a bad defensive team like Edmonton, your goalies are going to look bad. And in truth on a 29th place team their SV% are ok. Not great, but ok. An old Brodeur is at .905 Varlamov is at .910.

    So, people can complain about DD and the bad goals he’s let in but reality is if you shore up the dmen, I think you will be happy with the results. From my view DD appears to be an NHL caliber goalie.

  77. DSF says:

    "Steve Smith": In the NHL, average is a low playoff seed.

    We can debate whether that’s “pretty shitty” or not, but it would be a hell of a step up for the Oilers.

    Average also includes 2 or 3 teams in each conference who fail to make the playoffs by a point or two or three.

    The Bettman point ensures that.

    I guess it would be step up…right back to where the Oilers have spent the better part of the last two decades.

  78. asiaoil says:

    Thanks Vor – good analysis.

    Not quite sure what to say to people who think a backup goalie is the reason why the Oilers suck – there are about half dozen way bigger reasons. But of course these same ADD fans wanted to trade Smid for a bag of pucks 2 years ago as well – so what do they know. DD needs one more full year with vet support – problem is and always has been that the vet support has been largely garbage. The guy is not an elite prospect – but that doesnt mean he cant be an impact starter in time – and 89 games is not enough time to see if he can get there. Sure the Oilers need to upgrade in goal – but the place to do that has always has been the veteran starter role – and that signing was mangled by the GM. Get a better 1A and DD will be just fine as a 1B next year.

  79. Marc says:

    Lowetide:
    Goal should be addressed this summer, but I doubt they do it.

    Sorry for the late comment (timezone issues), but my 2 cents are that I doubt they do as well, but I think it will be the market that keeps them from acting rather than confidence in the guys they’ve got.

    By my count there are at least four teams that have done substantially worse than they expected going into the season due to a significant extent to their goalkeeping – Chicago, Toronto, Columbus and Tampa. There are also teams like San Jose and Washington who have had a lot of problems this season including shaky goaltending. And teams who were really disappointed by their back up goalie this year like Detroit and Pittsburgh. So that makes at least six, and possibly 8 or more, teams that have goalie at or near the top of their shopping list this summer.

    Here’s the list of UFA goalies this summer. I’ve put a star beside guys who can be described as the reason their team is looking for help in goal, and a plus sign besides guys whose SP this season is worse than the 20th ranked goalie in the league in SP (Nabokov) :

    Evgeni Nabokov New York Islanders
    Tomas Vokoun Washington Capitals
    +Martin Brodeur New Jersey Devils
    *+Dwayne Roloson Tampa Bay Lightning
    *Antero Niittymaki San Jose Sharks
    *+Jonas Gustavsson Toronto Maple Leafs
    +Johan Hedberg New Jersey Devils
    +Scott Clemmensen Florida Panthers
    *+Ty Conklin Detroit Red Wings
    +Josh Harding Minnesota Wild
    *+Ray Emery Chicago Blackhawks
    *+Curtis Sanford Columbus Blue Jackets
    *+Brent Johnson Pittsburgh Penguins
    Curtis McElhinney Phoenix Coyotes
    Alex Auld Ottawa Senators
    Martin Biron New York Rangers
    Andrew Raycroft Dallas Stars
    Yann Danis Edmonton Oilers
    Chris Mason Winnipeg Jets
    Michael Leighton Philadelphia Flyers
    Dan Ellis Anaheim Ducks
    Al Montoya New York Islanders

    That’s just awful. Vokoun and Nabokov (who may well get resigned) are the only UFAs that might represent a solid bet for team looking for help in goal. Some pretty crappy goalies are goign to get paid shocking money this summer.

    There are also guys like Schneider and Quick, but the n your looking at guys who have never been starters, and whose teams are probably looing for (and will likely get) a Varlyamov type return for them.

    Given the demand and supply of goalies this summer, there honestly could not be a worse time for the OIlers to look for an upgrade in goal. They would be better off standing pat and maybe trying to trade for a goalie during the season.

  80. Bruce McCurdy says:

    There is no team that receives average goaltending in every game. It’s a silly premise IMO, as silly as asuggesting a point-a-game player should have exactly one point in every game. That’s not how distribution works. Every goalie has games below .900 (and loses many of them). Lundqvist for example has played 14 games of .900 or worse, with a record of 5-6-3. If only Rangers had received NHL average goaltending in those games …

    On the other hand, Lundqvist is an impressive 8-0-0 in games where his save percentage was 1.000.

  81. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Sorry, “silly” is harsh. Such approaches can be very worthwhile as a methodology, as long as one is aware of/accounts for the huge standard deviation in the distribution. Speaking of which, small sample size stats like PK Sv% are similarly subject to wider swings season-to-season than overall Sv%, some of that is just a lousy signal-to-noise ratio.

  82. Nessler37 says:

    With the team fairly healthy since the start of 2012:

    Dubnyk: 10W-7L-1OTL

    Khabi: 1W-9L-3OTL

    Other than an out of this world 8 game stretch to start the year Khabi has been routinely sub-par. Pretty evident who needs to be flushed, to upgrade for next year.

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