Well, That Happened

On the morning of the trade deadline, I made an appearance on Team 1260 with Nielson and Fraser along with Derek Van Diest from the Edmonton Sun. Among the gems passed along (not by me) pertained to the best offer received for Ales Hemsky.

The word on the street had Nashville offering a 2 and a 4 in exchange for #83, but the Oilers thought better of it and signed him to a 2-year deal instead. The latest Oil Change episode made it look for all the word as thought the contract was signed in Kevin Lowe’s office sans the GM, and that’s an interesting tell too.

Anyway, Ales Hemsky is 12, 4-4-8 +3 since Feb 25 and his 5×5/60 number is heading north. Hemmer is healthy again. I bet Nashville management winced a little last night.

 

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58 Responses to "Well, That Happened"

  1. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    That’s the first I’ve heard the Nashville offer. Nice catch and opportune time to review it too!

    It’s a good thing they low-balled us… I imagine if they sweetened the pot with a actual NHLer or a viable prospect, Hemmer would have scored his first hattrick against his former team last night.

    Beauty of a game for Hemmer, though. And all at evens! I guess the shooting %s will start to retreat back to historic normals.

  2. FPB94 says:

    Glad he’s back.

    LT: I did not use my coat this week. It smells like spring, it smells like baseball.

    Last time around i called on the Rangers to go out with a boom and make the playoffs. This time i’l call on…. the Expos/Nationals.

    If god permits them to stay healthy they got 3 young arms going under 3,20 ERA (Gonzales, Zimmerman and Strasburg). Also got Drew Storen one of the best young closing man.

    Also got some good bat if Zimmerman can stay healthy, with the emergence oi Morse and Espinoza, and the help of Werth, they have a good batting rotation.

    It might be a fun spring in the DC. Then again counting on 2 TJ pitchers is often tomfoolpery. Oh well. It sure looks much much better than the last times around.

  3. Mr DeBakey says:

    Hemsky’s body English is much improved
    Or is it his body Czech?

  4. Woodguy says:

    I agree that the Oilchange thing was a tell.

    Big decisions still rest in Lowe’s office and v4.0 is the face of the decision.

    Good decision to keep Hemsky. Slipper still hasn’t appeared to pay off his debt. :)

    If you have the Oilchange episode on PVR, watch the part where v4.0 shakes Hemsky’s hand and tells him “I’ll see you tomorrow”

    The look on Hemsky’s face says either:

    “Not if I see you first”

    “Why would I see you tomorrow?”

    Funny stuff.

    Also,

    Posted this at the end of the GDT, I think it belongs here too:

    Out of the 51 players who have averaged 0.80 pts/gm (min 200 gp) since the lock out, only Jagr (old), Roy, Pominvile and Girouix (RFA contract) make less then Hemsky.

    Hemsky ranks 38th.

    Value contract perhaps?

    If he plays like his hair is on fire like he has been for the last week or so, and keeps seeing 2nd pairing D, then the next couple years might be fun to watch.

    Also,

    In 6 games in March DD is .942

  5. icecastles says:

    Woodguy:
    Out of the 51 players who have averaged 0.80 pts/gm (min 200 gp) since the lock out, only Jagr (old), Roy, Pominvile and Girouix (RFA contract) make less then Hemsky.

    Makes less per year, or per game? Because if a guy play, to draw an extreme example, one game in a season and scores a hat trick, his PPG is 3.0. But you’d have a hell of a time arguing that the player, regardless of salary, has a value contract, given how rarely he has played.

    I’d be more convinced if someone were to put dollars per game up with points per game, if discussing the value of a contract.

    Edit:
    I know you said “min 200 games played”, but when looking at a 560-game span, there is still room for players who have, in theory, played fewer than half the games they are contracted for. So my “hat trick in the only game played” example is a bit over the top, but I think the point is makes is still valid.

  6. Woodguy says:

    icecastles,

    The value will be determined for the life of the contract.

    It starts next year and runs for 2 years.

    We will know at the end.

    I think $/pt is a fine way of determining value, and therfore takes into account games played.

    We should have a good idea by the end of next year.

    I’m not calling it a value contract now, but it has that potential.

    Its essentially a bet on his health given that past production is a reasonable guess for future production, especially for players under 30.

  7. Gerta Rauss says:

    The latest from Terry Jones

  8. ashley says:

    Hemmer plays best when he’s fired up. He seems to be at his best when he feels he’s been slighted (usually the media), he takes a big body check or cheap shot, or the game means something. He’s always been a big part of the final push for the 8th playoff spot when the Oilers used to be competitive and the games were meaningful.

    That is why I loved the signing. This is the guy you want on the team next year when there is a resonable chence the Oilers will be in the mix down the stretch. Not to mention his sublime skill.

    I’m still kind of curious as to what would have happened if the linesmen let him and Blake Comeau go for a minute or so. Probably would have been bad for Hemsky, but sometimes he’s full of surprises.

  9. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Gerta Rauss: Terry Jones

    This quote:

    But right now it’s Kevin Lowe, Ales Hemsky and Shawn Horcoff — the ones who will have been there from start to finish – going hold-your-nose to hold-your-nose to hold-your-nose down the stretch.

    is ridiculous. Putting Hemsky and Horcoff in the same realm of responsibility as KL for the Oilers’ failures since the last CBA is asinine. I don’t see how anyone could read that and not take away that Jones, while correctly following his instinct to lambast the Oilers nevertheless can’t fight back the urge to diffuse the blame from management. This is a scoundrel’s refuge.

  10. art vandelay says:

    But right now it’s Kevin Lowe, Ales Hemsky and Shawn Horcoff — the ones who will have been there from start to finish – going hold-your-nose to hold-your-nose to hold-your-nose down the stretch.

    Terry Jones wrote a paragraph with that many words in it?

  11. icecastles says:

    Woodguy: The value will be determined for the life of the contract.

    Well said, and fully agreed.

    Here’s a question: given the injuries over the last couple years (and I’m both hoping and betting that the last two years will come to be seen as an anomoly rather than the beginning of a trend toward shortened seasons for 83), would you say his previous contract was still a value one? At the time of the signing it seemed a fantastic deal and it would appear that you are arguing it was. I’m thrilled he’s still on the team and I recognize you have to take the good with the bad, but I have my doubts that there was much value in at least the last couple years of his previous contract.

    Unless of course we are comparing him to Moreau, Souray, POS, Horcoff (though I’m not sure he’s all *that* much of an overpay), Whitney, Re-Khabibulin… okay I’m going to stop there before I get depressed.

  12. bookje says:

    Woodguy: Hemsky

    But what did his body language say Woodguy?

    Seriously, sometimes I think we dwell on little insignificant things far too much.

    “OMG, like did you totally, like, see the way Hemmy looked at Tambi. He, like totally, is done with him, you know… “

    “Yeah, totally, I know”

    Yes, we are teenage girls, either that or we are a bunch of old ladies with nothing to do but gossip.

  13. Bos8 says:

    I’m just having a good time. Welcome back Hemmer. Screw all the BS. Live in the now. After a game like that I’m good for at least the rest of the week. Harts was good too, skated through a few people.More please.

    I guess goaltender interference is also a thing of the past. Nashville took a piece of Dubby every chance they had. Bloody amateurish officiating as per directives.

  14. CrazyCoach says:

    I was lucky enough to see a game live this year as I was at the Sunday night game. Was a relief to wear an Oilers jersey and not be lost in a sea of Canuck jerseys. Wife won the free hat and we were close to winning the trip to Vegas.

    Anyway, I am glad the Oilers resigned Hemmer. His play has certainly toned down the critics lately. Personally I thought he was the best player on the ice Sunday night against the Coyotes and last night speaks for itself.

  15. whale says:

    icecastles: Well said, and fully agreed.

    Here’s a question: given the injuries over the last couple years (and I’m both hoping and betting that the last two years will come to be seen as an anomoly rather than the beginning of a trend toward shortened seasons for 83), would you say his previous contract was still a value one? At the time of the signing it seemed a fantastic deal and it would appear that you are arguing it was. I’m thrilled he’s still on the team and I recognize you have to take the good with the bad, but I have my doubts that there was much value in at least the last couple years of his previous contract.

    Unless of course we are comparing him to Moreau, Souray, POS, Horcoff (though I’m not sure he’s all *that* much of an overpay), Whitney, Re-Khabibulin… okay I’m going to stop there before I get depressed.

    I totally agree with what you are saying about Hemsky. Very happy for the signing. Not to step on your conversation, but as for value in the last couple years of his last contract brought us Hall and RNH just as much as anything else.

  16. nathan says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    “The Edmonton Oilers are four points back of the New York Islanders and three points back of the Columbus Blue Jackets in the CBA-To-CBA Standings — quite possibly the Lockout-to-Lockout Great Race To Save Face.”

    Gaining 5 points on the Islanders would give the Isles better draft position than the Oilers (Oilers already have more non-shutout wins). Plus that swing puts them in danger of giving up draft position to the Habs, Wild, Lighting and even the Leafs, Ducks, and Hurricanes.

    We need to count on some help some Khabi and some help from the Preds to lose just the right amount to keep a strong pick while avoiding the suck trophy.

    Now we know why they formed an analytics task force. This is gonna keep the computer in the bat cave busy for days.

  17. Gerta Rauss says:

    nathan,

    Yeah-the losing sucks but we’ve come this far so….
    The worst I want to finish is 29th and then win the lottery. I don’t want Yakupov but I’d like the first overall so we have as many options(trading the pick) as we can.

  18. CrazyCoach says:

    I agree with you Gerta. Having that #1 pick opens up more options. With Adam Larsson’s recent struggles, I’d be reluctant to draft a d-man.

  19. pboy says:

    Off topic NFL news. The Saints lose Head Coach Sean Payton for the whole season and two 2nd round picks in consecutive drafts.

    Tim Tebow to the Jets. Weird, weird move.

  20. Woodguy says:

    bookje,

    I hear you.

    At the same time it was funny to see.

    I just liked it for the comedy, nothing more.

    Also,

    Hilarious move by the Jets.

    “We just massively overpaid the 23/34 rated QB in the NFL…I know! Let’s bring in the guy ranked 28th to back him up!”

  21. hunter1909 says:

    Hemsky is the one single oiler I want to retire as an oiler, preferably with 1-2 cup wins.

    Smyth left town, he’s nothing to me other than a decent funny player who left town over money exactly like all the rest of the mercenaries. That’s his business to leave town, and it’s my right to think whatever I want about him. Good player, if he signs at a discount keep him otherwise he can leave town again, lol.

    The majority of angry posters have managed to rekindle my old timey absolute distrust of this management team, arguably without incontravertable evidence, really. Tambellini I’ve actually kinda liked so far, for not trading off draft picks mainly, but Renney/MacTavish metrosexual new Age coaching methods I’ve simply had it up to my eyeballs with.

    My expectation for this team is pretty simple: It’s got three incredible young players, but unfortunately the idiots in charge don’t value them as much as I do, so they leave them out to get hammered by the opposition on a nightly basis, and their still callow bodies are all going to end up like Hemsky’s shoulders. Now, once that happens in a way I’ll be fine, simply because I’ll stop watching this team for another decade, like I managed between 1992-2001.

    And if I really get lucky I’ll die, before ever bothering again with these schmucks.

    Stupid stupid oilers, letting their young players get beaten up and injured. Stupidity and blindness on a scale that suggests they’re all on Katz’s special high grade Rexall happy pills, normally reserved for investment bankers.

  22. Ducey says:

    Gerta Rauss: nathan, Yeah-the losing sucks but we’ve come this far so….The worst I want to finish is 29th and then win the lottery. I don’t want Yakupov but I’d like the first overall so we have as many options(trading the pick) as we can.

    No, no. Forget reality. We should pull out all the stops to win the last 9 so that we are not criticized for having the worst post CBA record. Maybe they should figure out the worst team of the new century, or of the last 2 decades, or of all time. Then franchises could alter their plans accordingly.

  23. Woodguy says:

    NFL doesn’t fuck around on player safety eh?

    Came down like a ton of bricks on the NO organization.

    If it were the NHL the result would have been much different, and may not have even come to light.

  24. bookje says:

    Woodguy:
    bookje,

    I hear you.

    At the same time it was funny to see.

    I just liked it for the comedy, nothing more.

    Also,

    Hilarious move by the Jets.

    “We just massively overpaidthe 23/34 rated QB in the NFL…I know! Let’s bring in the guy ranked 28th to back him up!”

    Wow, that is really going to hurt Winnipeg, can either of them even play hockey?

    To be honest, I haven’t seen the Oilchange episode yet, but I promise to read loads into every little thing I see there as well (I wouldn’t be here if I were rational and emotionally detached from this stuff, I would probably be focusing on my work ).

  25. Woodguy says:

    hunter1909,

    Renney/MacTavish metrosexual

    Neither of those guys are really metrosexual. Renney isn’t even well dressed with the way he mixes his plaids. He owned a men’s clothing store too. Lordy.

    MacT was simply well dressed, not metro.

  26. Woodguy says:

    bookje,

    Not reading loads into stuff, having fun with stuff.

    Stay on point.

  27. CrazyCoach says:

    Woodguy, New Orleans just lost millions of dollars in fines and potentially more through lost draft picks, all for tens of thousands of dollars spent on those bounties.

    What would Reggie Dunlop do?

  28. TheOtherJohn says:

    Ducey

    I get that you are patient. I also get that you a want to compete for the SC multiple times. This will shock you, so does everyone here.Everyone!! I have absolutely no difficulty tanking the last 9 games and ending up DFL.AGAIN. We have been mediocre all year all we might as well get rewarded for it. Dress Barker and play him with Peckham for 20 minutes a night. Course might result in a judicial inquiry

    The people that ran this organization into the ditch are still driving the bus. 6 years is a extremely long time to be truly horrible. Kids in grade 10 in 06 will be graduating from university with their first degree over that time period.

    Someone commented on “best player outside of the NHL” and kiddingly said John Tavares. Real funny! Why not say Hall, Eberle, RNH. Because the NY bleeping Islanders have been better over the last 6 years than the Oilers. We all like to make fun of worse organizations in the NHL unfortunately there are no organizations worse than the Oilers.

    But, as so many here repeatedly refer to the plan. We have 3 elite young forwards. 2-3 good defenders (Smid, Petry & Schultz) Hemsky, a good backup goaler and lots of prospects. And a successful veteran team in the AHL, whose success is driven by the veteran AHLers, not our prospects. So at some point we have to start to win and there are lots of teams with high draft picks that have been unsuccessful long term including the NYI.

    P.S. Expect you loved Stu McGregor’s comment on recent Oil Change re Nick Schultz ….. “we liked him in his draft year” Bet no one asked you for your grade 12 marks when you applied for an articling job. I’d even wager you never got asked a single question aboout those marks, because they were completely irrelevant.Course Oil wanted to add the luster of Stu MacGregor’s repuation to the Gilbert-Schultz trade, right alongside Stevie Y. Maybe in half a decade people will use Steve Tambellini’s name in the same way. I sure hope so!

  29. FPB94 says:

    Crazycoach: Fill the holes with guys from the ”Ace’s” league. And some foil.

  30. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy:
    hunter1909,

    Renney/MacTavish metrosexual

    Neither of those guys are really metrosexual.Renney isn’t even well dressed with the way he mixes his plaids. He owned a men’s clothing store too.Lordy.

    MacT was simply well dressed, not metro.

    Excellent points, lol.

    For me, the metrosexual male is coming mainly from the hairstyle. Non-existant sideburns are the most glaring example in the MM. Both Renney and MacT both sport overtly quiffed hairstyles, which ultimately destroy Swedish prospects+young superstar Kid Lines, imo.

    And Rob Schremp.

  31. bookje says:

    Woodguy:
    hunter1909,

    Renney/MacTavish metrosexual

    Neither of those guys are really metrosexual.Renney isn’t even well dressed with the way he mixes his plaids. He owned a men’s clothing store too.Lordy.

    MacT was simply well dressed, not metro.

    I don’t know, I was at the game the other day and Renney showed the top of his head when talking to player and I have never seen a man with his hair so neatly aligned with perfect back and for curl ribbing.

  32. bookje says:

    Woodguy:
    bookje,

    Not reading loads into stuff, having fun with stuff.

    Stay on point.

    Having fun with stuff is my key goal here – it dulls the pain of being an Oilers fan…

  33. LMHF#1 says:

    Of Hall, Hartikainen and Hemsky, is there one that could play center? That combo would be murder to play against in a couple years. Really too bad Teemu isn’t a natural C, as that’s the type of pivot we are missing.

  34. FPB94 says:

    Bookje: Jimmie Johnson (Big D)

  35. CrazyCoach says:

    FPB94:
    Crazycoach: Fill the holes with guys from the ”Ace’s” league. And some foil.

    HA HA HA!

    Think the investors in Florida will like this?

  36. Jordan says:

    Hey FPB,

    How bad are things getting in Montreal? Do you think they would overpay to move up in the draft this year? What’s the vibe you get from the team’s direction?

  37. hunter1909 says:

    Since we’re on target and talking about that alleged NHL team known as the oilers, I’m pretty bored with the annual Hartikainen-style(and nothing personal against the player here) “oh look! It’s the end of the season and some of the prospects are really doing great” baloney, which is often followed up by a mediocre training camp and a one way ticket punched back to the AHL – this after everyone’s been conned yet once more into believing in these minor league schmucks as eventual saviours, etc.

    If Katz gave a shit he’d open the vault and personally bring Barry Trotz here. Of course Kevin Lowe couldn’t stand Trotz, but hey, a fan is allowed to dream, right?

    Right?

  38. gd says:

    LMHF#1,

    LMHF,

    Stauffer mentioned a couple of days ago that he thinks they should look at Hall in the middle. I think it’s a great idea, if I recall Messier moved from LW to C in either 81 or 82, and that was the key to the Oilers emergence. I think it would give Hall more space and let him dominant his own line. My feeling is he could do it, as I think his passing ability is his most underrated ability.

  39. Bar_Qu says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    I like to put it this way (and since BDHS is on holiday, I can steal his line). My second kid was born during the cup run in ’06 – the night Smyth scored to win it, I think (I get to be fuzzy on the details of that game). He is finishing Kindergarten this spring and will likely make it through to grade 2 before he sees the Oilers play a post-season game.

    Which is why I can’t begrudge him cheering for the Flames first and avoiding the mockery of his peers.

  40. spoiler says:

    Woodguy:
    NFL doesn’t fuck around on player safety eh?

    Came down like a ton of bricks on the NO organization.

    If it were the NHL the result would have been much different, and may not have even come to light.

    Watching the hits on Benn last night and Eberle last weekend, it’s hard to believe that there isn’t a bounty on NHL players.

  41. LMHF#1 says:

    GD – I know that others have said that as well and that Hall as played some C. We’ll see if it happens, though I’m loathe to agree with Stauffer.

    Meanwhile…http://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/Dubnyk+shows+right+stuff/6337842/story.html …sometimes this junk is just too much. I get to thinking that if the Oilers signed someone that no one had ever seen before and he had 5 good games somehow the player would be anointed as the second coming of #99.

  42. hunter1909 says:

    Yeah riiight. Last night I was opining re how the young Kids are getting drilled, only to read someone saying that Renney whines about it after every game to the press.

    Like, how’s about sending out some goons to enforce order, you metrosexual, P.C. loser?

    Just what we all need – an NHL run by Brendan Bloody Shanahan.

  43. godot10 says:

    Hall at centre is a dumb idea. A centre has too many defensive responsibilities and you take away from Hall’s strengths (his skating, and his relentless attacking style) to make him a centre.

    If Roy becomes head honcho of the Canadiens, perhaps they might be interested in Grigorenko.

    The NFL is facing class-action concussion lawsuits from former players. Goodell wants an 18-game season. But the Saints are being punished more for the coverup, and lying to Goodell, than the actual crime. The coverup is always worse than the crime. You do not lie to Roger Goodell. You do not dissemble to Roger Goodell.

  44. Ducey says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    I couldn’t care what has happened over the last 6 or 12 years. The mistakes of management of the past may be instructive of what they will do going forward. It may not.

    Change just to “kick the bums out” (which seems to be Dellow’s goal) often doesn’t work that well and all good and successful GM’s have made bad trades or poor drafts.

    Teams like Calgary, Columbus, Toronto, Tampa Bay, and the NYI have brought in new GM’s post lockout. How’s that working?

    I think the Oilers are in a better position going forward than those organizations.

    Lowe wasn’t getting good drafts, signing European free agents, using statistical analysis, or implementing good development strategies 4 or 5 years ago. He/ or Tamellini are now.

  45. hunter1909 says:

    Ducey: Lowe wasn’t getting good drafts, signing European free agents, using statistical analysis, or implementing good development strategies 4 or 5 years ago. He/ or Tamellini are now.

    In a world of relativism and the inherent uncertainty – one this IS certain Kevin Lowe uses no statistical analysis other than: “Because he plays for a lousy team, so he must be good”. Or, “Everyone thinks this guy is going to be a dud. I don’t and I have 6 cup rings. I’m a fucking genius”.

  46. spoiler says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Ducey

    P.S. Expect you loved Stu McGregor’s comment on recent Oil Change re Nick Schultz ….. “we liked him in his draft year” Bet no one asked you for your grade 12 marks when you applied for an articling job. I’d even wager you never got asked a single question aboout those marks, because they were completely irrelevant.Course Oil wanted to add the luster of Stu MacGregor’s repuation to the Gilbert-Schultz trade, right alongside Stevie Y. Maybe in half a decade people will use Steve Tambellini’s name in the same way. I sure hope so!

    That’s not what McGregor said. Nor is that the tone with which his remark was expressed. Makes me wonder how agenda-based your approach is.

    As for the editing, did you expect the producers to reveal the arguments made against the trade? Does anyone here watch with such naive expectations?

  47. Ducey says:

    hunter1909: In a world of relativism and the inherent uncertainty – one this IS certain Kevin Lowe uses no statistical analysis other than: “Because he plays for a lousy team, so he must be good”. Or, “Everyone thinks this guy is going to be a dud. I don’t and I have 6 cup rings. I’m a fucking genius”.

    Did you learn that from looking at his hair and clothes? Or does that only work when judging coaches? :)

  48. delooper says:

    Listening to Trotz’s interview from last night is a positive. I haven’t heard to opposing coach say their team played well when losing to the Oilers… in a long long time.

    Little positives!

  49. danny says:

    bookje:
    To be honest, I haven’t seen the Oilchange episode yet, but I promise to read loads into every little thing I see there as well

    I read those kinda posts around here using Jeff Goldblums voice in my head. It makes them even funnier.

  50. gogliano says:

    A better comparable for Hall at center from the 80s Oilers is Anderson (Hall is as much Anderson as he is Messier if we’re comparing to 80s Oilers). Which is to say it shouldn’t happen, for the reasons mentioned above.

  51. TheOtherJohn says:

    Spoiler

    Feel free to insert Stu’s exact quote….precisely. Does not change its purpose. Ditto ST comment about Stevie Y liking the player. The purpose of the inclusion of Stu’s comment was to have one of the better respected members of management comment favorably on the trade. Only Stu’s scouting of the player is now 8 years old. Kinda like high school marks followed by 2 subsequent degrees. Most people would look at the subsequent performance.

    Now as to the agenda: not real difficult to decipher. Get the best possible people in Oiler management to take a promising group of young forwards, develop the D prospects and fill out the balance of a championship caliber roster and compete. Because after the last 6 years (with sellouts along the way) we deserve to get the best possible product put on ice .I just don’t believe that the best management team is Lowebellini but in half a decade I may be proven wrong. But its probably because, as you suggest, I am being naive

  52. DeadmanWaking says:

    I mentioned deterrence yesterday in reframing an OT tidbit in the larger hockey context. Turns out the forth-line hockey code is not confined to humans.

    World’s Most Ferocious Coke Machine

    [Forest Service guy] was out deer hunting last week when a large grizzly bear charged him from about 50 yards away … emptied his 7mm Magnum semi-automatic rifle into the bear and it dropped a few feet from him. The big bear was still alive so he reloaded and shot it several times in the head. … Based on the contents of the bears stomach, the Fish and Wildlife Commission established the bear had killed at least two humans in the past 72 hours including a missing hiker. … Although the hiker fired six shots and managed to hit the grizzly with four shots, it only wounded the bear and probably angered it immensely. … the Service ultimately found four 38 caliber slugs along with twelve 7mm slugs inside the bear’s dead body

    Bear spits out 38 caliber slugs like excess chiclets, then goes back for more. Wake up people. Deterrence does not work as we so often presume.

    Speaking of bears and deterrence, think I’m going to hibernate and live off body fat until the lottery, though I will follow (and dream contentedly about) the two fang wounds of galloping necrosis inflicted upon our favorite rebuild deniers.

  53. nathan says:

    Hate to remind everyone but the Lowe points were:

    2006 – too much cash thrown at the SCF roster

    2007 – whiffed on Vaneck and signed Penner and Souray after a planned 4 year extension got knocked down to 2 years and delayed by the EIG board before they did the full 4 years in September.

    Tambi’s done the swinging with too much money thing (whiffed on Heatley, signed Khabi). Now we’re into the bit where Tambi’s extension is being delayed heading into the summer.

    They’d better decide who’s staying beyond the summer pretty soon. Katz is about to send Tambi into crunch time in the same place where Lowe was when he swung for the fences with Vanek and tried to give up the picks that became Nugent-Hopkins, Hall, Paajarvi, and Tyler Myers (surrendered for Penner instead).

  54. Woodguy says:

    Ducey:
    TheOtherJohn,

    I couldn’t care what has happened over the last 6 or 12 years.The mistakes of management of the past may be instructive of what they will do going forward.It may not.

    Change just to “kick the bums out” (which seems to be Dellow’s goal) often doesn’t work that well and all good and successful GM’s have made bad trades or poor drafts.

    Teams like Calgary, Columbus, Toronto, Tampa Bay, and the NYI have brought in new GM’s post lockout.How’s that working?

    I think the Oilers are in a better position going forward than those organizations.

    Lowe wasn’t getting good drafts, signing European free agents, using statistical analysis, or implementing good development strategies 4 or 5 years ago.He/ or Tamellini are now.

    So the Oilers have the worst record in the NHL since the lock out and you are scared of changing out Lowe and Tambellini for fear it would get worse?

    Afraid they’ll finish 31st?

  55. Marc says:

    Woodguy: So the Oilers have the worst record in the NHL since the lock out and you are scared of changing out Lowe and Tambellini for fear it would get worse?

    The new guy could fire Stu and bring in someone who drafts guys with the size and truclulence that the Oilers clearly need. He could stop wasting money on an AHL franchise and decide to share one with some other team. He could fire Billy Moores and his individual development plan for each prospect and just leave the prospects to their own devices until training camp each year. And he could guarantee a playoff spot, promising to make a big splash in free agency and spend to the cap, just like Buffalo, Columbus and Toronto.

    So yeah, I’m afraid

  56. asiaoil says:

    Funny stuff in this thread – people actually need to watch oil change to guess whether Tambo is a puppet? That’s been obvious since day 1 folks – no need to analyze body language. Kevin Lowe was actually decent when the EIG salary cap limited his ability to do stupid things with money and made it him work a bit to find value contracts. He actually did OK. But ever since the CAD took off to parity and he had as many dollars as the smart kids to play with – he’s proven time and again that the GM role is way over his head. Management is the glass ceiling for this org in terms of performance – and I’m not getting my hopes up until those clowns are sent packing with the rest of the boys on the bus hangers on.

  57. Ducey says:

    Woodguy: So the Oilers have the worst record in the NHL since the lock out and you are scared of changing out Lowe and Tambellini for fear it would get worse?Afraid they’ll finish 31st?

    Gee, maybe the analysis should be a little more nuanced than “they are in last, lets fire them”.

    I know it would disrupt the narrative you expound here 23 times a day here, but perhaps we should look at what they are doing rather than where they are in the standings.

  58. "Steve Smith" says:

    Ducey,

    Fundamentally, a GM’s job is to put together a winning team. Finishing thirtieth can be part of putting together a winning team, so I agree that it’s insufficient to say they they finished last in two consecutive seasons, let’s fire them. But at some point you have to judge people on the basis of results. It’s true that sometimes the best laid plans of mice and GMs can go off the rails through no fault of the GM, but if you look at a large enough sample size that luck should begin to cancel out.

    This is one thing that I like about Lowetide’s reasonable expectations series: it tries to set out in advance what success will look like for a player.

    Let’s pretend that, right after the Pronger trade demand went public (which seems like a fair time to start measuring, since it dramatically changed the team’s outlook through no apparent fault of management), we sat down to consider what were reasonable expectations of the Oilers for the next six years. What would the reaction have been if somebody had said “Well, 27-19-21-30-30-29 seems about right.”?

    Let’s look at it from another angle: as of the Pronger trade demand, what did Oilers’ management intend to do with the team over the next five years? This allows for the deliberate tanking is a legitimate strategy. This necessitates some guesswork, because we don’t know for sure. But does anybody think it was 27-19-21-30-30-29?

    As measured against reasonable expectations, the Oilers have been terrible over the past six years. As measured against any reasonable guess of management’s own expectations, the Oilers have been terrible over the past six years. Management’s results have sucked.

    Have there been great swaths of bad luck that can excuse management for these terrible results? I’m not aware of anything (the Pronger trade demand would count, which is why I set expectations to after it was made). Injury luck has been slightly worse than average, but not enough to justify this kind of performance (and of course there’s a line of thinking, which I hypothesize is mostly incorrect, that management can exert significant control over injuries, which would mean that that doesn’t even qualify as bad luck).

    Oilers’ management has been bad. That’s not technically any guarantee that it will continue to be bad, but past performance is the best predictor available to us.

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