Winter 20 Update

The Edmonton Oilers have been graduating exceptional talent to the NHL in the last two seasons, simply by walking to the podium first. Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will dominate Oiler hockey this decade and Jordan Eberle will be marching alongside. The question becomes “what else is there?” and the answer is a moving target. Heavy on defense, role players and three goaltenders on the way. The winter list is here.

  1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (43, 15-23-38 -5 OILERS) A fine debut and a PP season for the ages, RNH looks good from here. Lots of words about him struggling at evens, but I think that’s fairly predictable. I’m not certain he’ll be >Hall, but it’s also uncertain #4 will be the better impact player. He will graduate by summer’s list, so this is his last time as a prospect on this blog. Kid’s a puck wizard.
  2. Anton Lander (56, 2-4-6 -8 OILERS) I’m certain the Oilers made an error in keeping Lander in the NHL, but it’s still impressive that he showed enough at training camp to win a big league job. Lander should be able to post some offense in the AHL and I’ll be interested to see how they handle him next fall. A season in the AHL may still be in the cards.
  3. Oscar Klefbom (30, 0-0-0 -1 FARJESTAD) Defender showed well at the WJ’s and is seeing 13.5 minutes a night in the SEL during the regular year. That’s up from 8.5 minutes a night one year ago and Klefbom may push for a job in North America next fall. His lack of offense suggests we might be looking at more of a Smid-type than we’ve been led to believe, but we’ll have to wait and see.
  4. Teemu Hartikainen (5, 0-0-0 -4 OILERS 41, 13-13-26 -4 OKC). Hartikainen has had an up and down season, and he might be in danger of getting passed over next fall (depending on what happens at the draft). His OKC performance is stronger during February (7, 3-3-6 -1 since the 11th) and perhaps he’ll get a late season recall again this year. I’d say he’s on track as a prospect, but there was an opportunity missed this season.
  5. Martin Marincin (50, 9-26-35 -2 PRINCE GEORGE & REGINA). The change in address appears to have been a good thing for Marincin. Reports have the big man settling things down on the Pat backline and showing the poise we saw at this winter’s world junior championships. If Marincin holds serve, he’ll get an NHL shot before Klefbom and the others. I expect he’ll play the entire season in OKC in 12-13.
  6. Tyler Bunz (54, 2.54 .922 MEDICINE HAT) Leads WHL in SP and would appear to be at least Dubnyk’s equal through junior. Concussion issues have been a negative and he recently found the newspaper for the wrong reasons. I think he recovered well from the WJ disappointment and expect we’ll have a prospect on the level of Dubnyk or a little higher when he turns pro next fall. On track as a prospect and plays a position the Oilers might fast track if they have a prospect howing well in pro.
  7. Martin Gernat (52, 8-39-47 +37 OIL KINGS) The riverboat gambler has all kinds of skill and plays with an edge. I like him plenty and at 6.05 he really stands out as a player. His even strength totals (51, 6-23-29) show us his offense doesn’t owe everything to the PP. Nice range of skills, interesting prospect. He’ll have to pass some people to have a career, but he’s already moved up the depth chart plenty in one season.
  8. Curtis Hamilton (41, 5-6-11 +2 OKC). Rookie spending his first pro season well down the depth chart, and a recent knee injury may put an exclamation point on a disappointing season. Hamilton’s scouting report suggests he’s a two-way player with enough offense to be considered a legit prospect, but Oilers fans didn’t see that this season. 12-13 in OKC will be very important for this player.
  9. Tyler Pitlick (42, 5-8-13 -3 OKC) Until recently, Pitlick’s season was marching in lockstep with Hamilton’s, but as luck would have it Pitlick’s fortunes appear to be improving just as Hamilton’s season goes off the rails with injury. In his last 2 games, Pitlick has 8 shots and a couple of assists, implying he’s moved up the depth chart and is playing with more skilled men (one of the goals was scored by Josh Green with the assists going to Pitlick and Linus Omark). He’s still wandering in the wilderness but things appear to be coming around after a slow start.
  10. David Musil (52, 4-19-23 +15 GIANTS)  Smart, savvy defenseman and he’s not yet 20. Musil’s NHL career will hinge on his ability to keep up with the action, but as we saw at the WJ’s this fellow can be an effective defender. I don’t really know where to slot the guy, he’d be way up the list if it was just a bunch of my favorites, but I think this is about right. Behind all of the guys who may be complete players someday and well enough ahead of the rest of the blue to suggest there’s a player here.
  11. Colten Teubert (20, 0-1-1 -4 OILERS 29, 2-6-8 +8 OKC) I suggested last trade deadline that we wait and see on this player, and it looks like there might be something useful here. A tough, physical defender, he can play effectively in the AHL but clearly has some ways to go (as seen in his NHL play). Another season in Okla City is likely, but we shouldn’t forget about this guy.
  12. Olivier Roy (32, 2.44 .927 STOCKTON 1, 4.14 .900 OKC) Clearly overqualified for the ECHL based on his stats, Roy remains a solid prospect and could get a chance to be an OKC starter before the more highly rated (by me, anyway) Bunz. Roy may get more looks in OKC down the stretch here too.
  13. Tobias Rieder (52, 35-34-69 +20 KITCHENER) Man this kid is having a fine season. 7 powerplay goals and 7 goals shorthanded (!!!) are a tell that the young man has a nice range of skills. His NHLE (82, 17-16-33) is very good and a google search gives you rave reviews about his quality of play and level of maturity. Nice player.
  14. Jeremie Blain (50, 9-38-47 +22 ACADIE-BATHURST & VICTORIAVILLE) A good season turned into a great one with his mid-season trade to Victoriaville. The season has not been without controversy, but on-ice has been very good for the young man and there are signs of maturity. It’s been very difficult to compare this player to the WHL kids, we’ll get a nice look at all of them in the fall.
  15. Brandon Davidson (61, 12-31-43 +22 REGINA) A year older than the other junior kids, Davidson’s story is a good one and he appears to be a lock for pro employment next season. I do wonder how the Oilers are going to sign and graduate all of these kids to pro hockey next year, and a trade at or before the draft is possible.
  16. Frans Tuohimaa: (17, 2.59 .900 JOKERIT) Young Finn goaltender is having a solid if unspectacular season. It’s very hard to follow Finnish players but the reporting seems to be positive. It’ll be years before we know, but it’s a nice start.
  17. Dillon Simpson (33, 1-13-14 +9 NORTH DAKOTA) Foot speed is the concern here, Simpson does seem to have good hands and an ability to play defense. His draft scouting reports were a little bit all over the place but he does indeed seem to have a nice range of skills.
  18. Phil Cornet (2, 0-1-1 E OILERS 46, 22-10-32 +5 OKC) Young winger has enjoyed a terrific 2nd season in OKC. 22 goals got him an NHL look and I don’t think there were many Oilers fans who thought that was possible. I’m not certain he has an NHL future, but this has been a fine season for him.
  19. Kyle Bigos (29, 4-13-17 100pims MERRIMACK) Huge defender is a pim magnet in the NCAA and should be a favorite or management and the fanbase if and when he arrives in pro. A longshot to ever play in the NHL, he remains an interesting prospect.
  20. Ryan Martindale (4, 0-0-0 -2 OKC & 34, 6-9-15 -13 STOCKTON) Martindale has had a poor season. The last good thing we saw was a pretty nice game in pre-season but after that it was all downshill. It remains to be seen if he can recover.

I’ll have a look at 21-30 next. RNH and Lander will graduate, Martindale will fall off the list and there’ll be some adjustment for Hamilton and Pitlick. I think Klefbom is the top prospect now (once RNH passes 50 games) and the top 10–should the Oilers select Murray–might have as many as 5 defensemen. speeds makes a great point about this team needing forwards more than defensemen in the system, but I think it’s fait accompli they take a defender in the lottery.

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73 Responses to "Winter 20 Update"

  1. hunter1909 says:

    Some interesting prospects listed.

    Front office is definitely on for the tank: which must drive the honest, intelligent, and decent fan to distraction.

    It reminds me of my studies re: the Great Patriotic War of 1941-45. Front office, that is, who are definitely using Darwinian methodology with the young players. Some of these guys are going to make it, some of them won’t and a few will be shipped out of Dodge every now and again when the stage comes through town(see Gilbert).

    They obviously want a top 2-5 pick, love Cam Barker for his recent contributions, and next year will probably run like I foolishly thought this season would; except no more predictions of 6th place; at least not until after the exhibition season, lol.

    PS: FOR THE TANK FANS: Montreal has got nearly all bad teams to play in the next 2 1/2 weeks. many are Canadian also, which should force these slobs to play some hockey!

  2. Lois Lowe says:

    I also wonder how we sign everybody, especially with the management directive to field a competitive AHL squad. It seems to me that they are going to have to sign more Helmer like talent for the Barons to lucrative AHL-only deals to save contract space for the rookies. Which of the kids are likely going back for their overage season based their play and the bodies in front of them? I think Marincin is a prime candidate as he is still pretty slight, Rieder could be another.

  3. Dan the Man says:

    Soooo…Bunz’s comparison to Dubnyk is a positive?
    I don’t understand why the OIlers didn’t keep O’Marra up at the beginning of the year and let Lander have some AHL time. Poor choice in my opinion. Not that I thought Lander was terrible but why not let him develop in a developmental league playing 20 min a night instead of the NHL?

  4. regwald says:

    Lois Lowe,

    Marincin could have turned pro last season due to his draft status. Not clear the exact details. I highly doubt they leave him in Regina for an additional year. I believe he will be OKC bound.

    Rieder, might be a different story. It might be a hard sell to someone with a European birth certificate that a 3rd year in Kitchener is better than turning pro when he would have tons of options for Europe. I am sure that’s not the Oilers preference (Europe), but it would be a consideration for the player.

  5. sliderule says:

    If the oil finish bottom three and take a defender Stu will have failed.

    This draft was supposed to be about defenders but by the stats they have been no better and in some cases worse than previous drafts.

    Murray plays a lot like Chorney who if you remember had pretty solid showings at WJC.

    Dumba is smaller and plays more like a forward than a defender

    K Lowe will have to overcome his anti Russian bias and select one of the three

  6. slopitch says:

    Good list LT. I suspect if RNH didnt get injured he’d have graduated on this list. I like Musil more then Hamilton and Pitlick but we’re splitting hairs.

    Remember the last time there were 2 highly touted Russians ranked 1/2 in the draft? I sure hope we dont end up with Barker. Although I think the Oilers finish 4th or 5th this year. Good thing our Chicago rebuild is still awaiting a lottery win ;)

  7. hunter1909 says:

    sliderule:
    If the oil finish bottom three and take a defender Stu will have failed…
    Dumba is smaller and plays more like a forward than a defender

    Once they drafted a guy who played hockey exactly like that. I believe it was a 6th overall pick, and in the end it worked out pretty good.

    Really liking the AHL setup, after watching Pouliot, Schremp and others flounder in the minors after being loaned to other teams etc. Lots of talent coming through.

    Didn’t Lander have a strong pre-season? Seems to further prove the Darwin methods used by the Katz/Lowe/Tambellini/Renney team. Play good, and stay. Otherwise, tough.

  8. LMHF#1 says:

    In terms of Teemu, between the injury and the bad callup timing, I’d say he didn’t get a great shake this year. The talent is there though and he should still be a good NHL’er in the near future. He’s good enough and has a very unique skill set.

  9. regwald says:

    hunter1909: Once they drafted a guy who played hockey exactly like that. I believe it was a 6th overall pick, and in the end it worked out pretty good.

    Ah, but what happens if it wasn’t Paul Coffey and they took Darren Veitch, or Rick Lanz or Fred Arthur or Rik Wilson. Veitch had 511 games, Lanz 569, Arther 80, Wilson 251 games. Not saying any of those players taken had the offensive upside of Coffey at the time, but all were dmen selected in the same draft year picked 5th, 7th, 8th and 12th that same year.

    Picking that right guy is important.

  10. Jordan says:

    sliderule:
    If the oil finish bottom three and take a defender Stu will have failed.

    This draft was supposed to be about defenders but by the stats they have been no better and in some cases worse than previous drafts.

    Murray plays a lot like Chorney who if you remember had pretty solid showings at WJC.

    Dumba is smaller and plays more like a forward than a defender

    K Lowe will have to overcome his anti Russian bias and select one of the three

    Na – there’s always Forsberg and Reinhart. Either would be a HUGE acquisition for this team. Not that I’d mind one of the russians, but… well I’m biased too.

    I’m unofficially starting a DRAFT REINHART campaign amongst Edmonton Oilers fans. With all of the giant defensemen the team has been drafting, this guy should be a target the Stu won’t miss.

    After all – if there is one thing you can guarantee will translate at the NHL level, it’s size.

  11. russ99 says:

    I’m very hopeful that we still pick in the top 2, even if it takes a lottery win to do so.

    The question to me is would Stu want to trade down if we’re at 3 and both Russians are off the board – and if so would Tambellini let him or try to keep the endless rebuild going?

  12. Gerta Rauss says:

    The latest from Terry Jones

    Not very flattering to either Dubnyk or Barker.

  13. hunter1909 says:

    FOR FANS OF THE TANK ONLY: Montreal, currently perilously close to the oilers
    points wise has got about 8 games before March 17(I can’t for the life of me think further ahead than 2.5 weeks). All of them will force the Habs to play well, one way or another – because if say, they dropped 7 out of the 8 Quebec might start a civil war. Or something.

  14. hunter1909 says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    The latest from Terry Jones

    Not very flattering to either Dubnyk or Barker.

    It should mean the end of oilers’ spending 8-10 years on another goalie prospect. Dubnyk, Barker, Sutton, Eager, Belanger, Hordichuk cannot expect to move forward with the actual team Katz/Lowe/Tambellini are creating for the future.

    Renney is a lame duck coach, but it’s never even mentioned. There’s nothing to suggest he’s not in on the Terry Jones mentioning conspiracy, which in face of an actual planned tank with not much more than a few weeks left inthe (oilers) season.

  15. DSF says:

    An interesting read on college free agents available this summer:

    http://goo.gl/UQxlJ

  16. mattwatt says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    I am constantly surprised by the amount of rope Barker gets. He is not an NHL player nor ever will be. Forget the pinch that lead to the first goal, his spacing on the second goal is atrocious. Caught trying to make a play, but really caught doing nothing. He is in the middle of nowhere, it leads to an odd man rush and a goal. Yes, Dubnyk should of had it but once again Barker was being his ineffective self.

    Which leads me to constantly question the roster decisions being made. Last night was a perfect example with the roster being:

    Hall-RNH-Hemsky
    Smyth-Gagner-Eberle
    Jones-Horcoff-Eager
    Petrell-Belanger-Hordichuk

    Arrangement of the bottom six is not just messed up, it is a mess. Jone and Eager are playing a more prominent role than they should, and Petrell and Hordichuk really do not provide a whole bunch as hockey players yet they keep getting dragged out there. It is as if their contract states they need to play a certain amount of games or they get paid double.

    A better forward groups, imo would be:

    Hall-RNH-Hemsky
    Smyth-Gagner-Eberle
    MPS-Horcoff-Omark
    Jones-Belagner-Eager

    If injuries occur, either MPS of Omark can move up to play in the top 6 (both have shown ability to do so). MPS is matched with Omark, so that there is an offensive/defensive balance (MPS games has never really been to score points but rather be responsible) and Jones and Eager get the ice-time they deserve.

    Yet the Oilers keep running Eager and Jones out for the “work ethic” (not paying attention to the fact that Jones really has peaked as a player and is rather ineffective offensively, does not read the ice well in that end) and “grit” (has Eager stopped anyone from running the kids, at all?).

    Krueger showed what can happen when you change the line-up around, yet Renney can’t seem to rid himself of old hockey beliefs. About time that he got with, well, the time. Start playing talent over grit. Start giving youth that need chances those chances. Start doing something. Instead we get the same old, and often it leads to nothing.

    This is what I find extremely frustrating right now to say the least, and I haven’t even gotten to the defense.

  17. neojanus says:

    Barker is broken. Watching him play makes me believe he’s depressed. He’s totally lethargic out there.

    Can’t blame the whole thing on Dubnyk, but he’s a turkey. He’s not the guy. He makes some great saves and has moments of tremendous hockey, but his positioning is still inconsistent and his pad work borders on maddening at times. Even a great defence will have lapses now and then; Dubnyk can’t be trusted to make that save.

    Gotta find a goalie younger than 54 and with at least .920 save percentage over three/four years.

  18. Bos8 says:

    Just in passing – I like Petrell better than Jones – better positioning, better reads on plays, stronger on the puck, better PK.

  19. Dave Casselman says:

    mattwatt:
    Gerta Rauss,

    I am constantly surprised by the amount of rope Barker gets. He is not an NHL player nor ever will be. Forget the pinch that lead to the first goal, his spacing on the second goal is atrocious. Caught trying to make a play, but really caught doing nothing. He is in the middle of nowhere, it leads to an odd man rush and a goal. Yes, Dubnyk should of had it but once again Barker was being his ineffective self.

    Which leads me to constantly question the roster decisions being made. Last night was a perfect example with the roster being:

    Hall-RNH-Hemsky
    Smyth-Gagner-Eberle
    Jones-Horcoff-Eager
    Petrell-Belanger-Hordichuk

    Arrangement of the bottom six is not just messed up, it is a mess. Jone and Eager are playing a more prominent role than they should, and Petrell and Hordichuk really do not provide a whole bunch as hockey players yet they keep getting dragged out there. It is as if their contract states they need to play a certain amount of games or they get paid double.

    A better forward groups, imo would be:

    Hall-RNH-Hemsky
    Smyth-Gagner-Eberle
    MPS-Horcoff-Omark
    Jones-Belagner-Eager

    If injuries occur, either MPS of Omark can move up to play in the top 6 (both have shown ability to do so). MPS is matched with Omark, so that there is an offensive/defensive balance (MPS games has never really been to score points but rather be responsible) and Jones and Eager get the ice-time they deserve.

    Yet the Oilers keep running Eager and Jones out for the “work ethic” (not paying attention to the fact that Jones really has peaked as a player and is rather ineffective offensively, does not read the ice well in that end) and “grit” (has Eager stopped anyone from running the kids, at all?).

    Krueger showed what can happen when you change the line-up around, yet Renney can’t seem to rid himself of old hockey beliefs. About time that he got with, well, the time. Start playing talent over grit. Start giving youth that need chances those chances. Start doing something. Instead we get the same old, and often it leads to nothing.

    This is what I find extremely frustrating right now to say the least, and I haven’t even gotten to the defense.

    Gotta agree with you, although maybe, just maybe, Cam Barker one day actually lives up to his junior billing. It won’t be with the Oilers though. And much as I like Tom Renny as as a person, he won’t be the coach of the Stanley Cup Champion Oilers of 2015 – 2016.

    And final parting, I agree with your comments about Ralph. Anyone that can do the job he did with the Swiss National Team is worthy of a look as head coach material once they have a bit more NHL experience. Near as I can tell his only drawback might be that he’s too nice a guy.

  20. rickithebear says:

    neojanus: Gotta find a goalie younger than 54 and with at least .920 save percentage over three/four years.

    Hard to keep a straight face!
    NKB .914 SV %
    Dubnyk .907 SV %

    Luongo .920
    Harding .919
    Vokoun .917
    Enroth .917
    Price .915
    Niemi .914
    Anderson .913
    Fluery .912
    Miller .912
    Bernier.911
    Sanford .911
    Ward .911
    Hiller .909
    Pavalec .909
    Clemmensen .908
    I dought any from Niemi down Out performs Dubnyk on this team.

    Above .920 save %
    Backstrom .921
    Kiprisoff .921
    Lehtonen .921
    Nabakov .922
    Giguire .922
    Howard .923
    Halak .925
    Rinne .926
    Thomas .929
    Rask .929
    Schneider .932
    Quick .932
    Elliot .937
    Lundquist .940

    The answer to that statement is Schneider. Be real.

    I dought any from Niemi down Out performs Dubnyk on this team.

  21. In the Grease says:

    Sorry I missed Speeds’ comment, re: the Oilers needing forwards more than defenseman, but it’s exactly what I (and apparently a few others here) have been thinking the last little while as well, as this season winds down and we take aim at another lottery pick.

    This sentiment has been brought into even clearer focus with this Winter 20 prospect breakdown.

    If we consider even one or two of Klefbom, Marincin, Gernat, Musil, and Teubert as potentially being on the way, in addition to our keepers: Whitney, Smid, Schultz, Petry, and third pairing guys: Potter, Sutton (admittedly stopgap), Peckham (still potential there imo), this team already has the theoretical ability to put together a reasonably solid top 6 D moving forward, even before trade possibilities are discussed (It may be a bit of a crapshoot, but jettisoning Barker will be a huge step forward as it is…)

    It certainly may not end up being the best defense in the NHL in the next few years (if ever) but I think our current makeup/prospect pool provides evidence another quality forward is an even more pressing concern as we look into the very near future.

    Ryan Smyth is bridging a gap playing as a Top 6 forward right now. Who is coming along to fill his shoes as a crucial addition to the cluster? I agree with LT in that Paajarvi will likely (hopefully) end up as a solid 2-way 3rd liner, eventually taking the spot Smyth should be slotted on the roster.

    The forward prospects on the way are not particularily encouraging as outlined above: Hartikainen, Pitlick, Hamilton, perhaps Reider? Omark doesn’t appear to fit, and looks more like a trade chip. It does not seem, at this point, that any of these young guys are trending toward being the answer on the first or second line left wing.

    We need size and grit – with hands – in the Top 6. As mentioned, Grigorenko may be a gamble based on work ethic and desire, but I like the looks of Forsberg. According to Bob MacKenzie:

    “Big, strong winger with power forward potential, adept at protecting the puck from the opposition and working along the walls, big shooter with a quick, hard release. Not afraid to initiate contact and has the strength to win many battles.”

    Is this not exactly what the doctor ordered to round out what would project to be a formidable Top 6?

    Hall – RNH – Eberle
    Forsberg – Gagner – Hemsky

    Bottom line, we need more quality forwards in the pipeline – this past season has exposed too many of our forward prospects as question marks, not answers….

  22. In the Grease says:

    P.S. And, yes, we also need a goalie…

  23. DSF says:

    In the Grease,

    Speeds may be right but your logic in waiting for those defensive prospects to become NHL players won’t work.

    Likely none of them will be able to step in and have an impact before the kids get paid meaning the money won’t be there for the two top pairing defenders the team needs desperately.

    Drafting another high end forward only makes sense if the strategy is to trade one of two of them for defensive help.

  24. hunter1909 says:

    In the Grease: Bottom line, we need more quality forwards in the pipeline – this past season has exposed too many of our forward prospects as question marks, not answers….

    Sure. You’re 100% right…

    But, here is a difference of opinion: Point ONE oiler’s enjoy the NHL envying luxury of having THREE POTENTIAL SUPERSTARS, plus Gagner/Hemsky together add at least the mathematical equivalent of another one.

    The bottom six: Smyth/capitain Horcoff, everyone else on a short rope. Horcoff, the captain, is fast becoming a hilarious foil, a living legend; his basic ability will keep him from being totally useless, although how I cannot explain. Everyone on the team better than him sounds like the management’s goal, imo.

    Main Argument: Most NHL teams usually have a very good bottom six, then spend forever cobbling together a two line forward attack. Oiler’s currently have five excellent to potentially outstanding forwards in the top six. Last night the announcers were describing these players as ‘world class’ already, and they’re right.

    The bottom six, like the defence both appear to be getting developed in OKC. So, the final product is 2-3 years away.

    After 2-3 more seasons, from the look of today’s top six, many conference and(winning)cup finals beckon.

  25. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Great summary LT. Interesting group. Wide range of players there. Stu has put together a good pool here, especially considering mangement’s mandate of playing their top prospects at the pro level (which sees them graduate off of LTs list quickly) to increase fan interest in lieu of winning games.

    Oilers Management’s strategy: It’s much easier to promote your product by just letting a bunch of kids entertain while losing games rather than bringing in solid NHL players in efforts to maybe win some games. If you lose with solid NHL vets – you’re fired. If you win with kids – bonus! if you play exciting last place hockey with kids well it was still exciting for the fans. It’s win-win for management – Briliiant!

    My biggest worry on that list is Musil. Footspeed is a major issue with him. His family name may get him slotted higher than he should on most ranking lists.

  26. DSF says:

    rickithebear,

    If the answer is Schneider, which of Hopkins, Eberle or Hall would you be prepared to give up for him?

  27. Ducey says:

    Goalies are not something to invest in. Brian Elliot was washed up last year, and now he is all world. Grab a couple off the scrap heap and hope one gets hot.

    Gernat is the guy I am watching. 47 pts in 52 games and +37 is pretty nice and you just don’t see 6’5″ guys who can skate like he does. A massive steal in the 5th.

    I am not too worried about the forwards. When the time comes to go for it, they can just sign or trade for a big bodied vet and let the Nuge bounce pucks off his ass into the net.

    BPA please.

  28. DSF says:

    Ducey:
    Goalies are not something to invest in.Brian Elliot was washed up last year, and now he is all world.Grab a couple off the scrap heap and hope one gets hot.

    Gernat is the guy I am watching.47 pts in 52 games and +37is pretty nice and you just don’t see 6’5″ guys who can skate like he does.A massive steal in the 5th.

    I am not too worried about the forwards.When the time comes to go for it, they can just sign or trade for a big bodied vet and let the Nuge bounce pucks off his ass into the net.

    BPA please.

    Things are not always as they appear.

    The Oilers are currently 29th in Shots/Game at 26.9, a mere 00.3 ahead of Minnesota yet are 15th in Goals/Game.

    Now, you may believe the talent level of their forwards is such that they can sustain that level of productivity but I think it’s unlikely.

    Still an awful lot of work to do on the forward corp.

    A big bodied vet is hardly enough.

  29. Woodguy says:

    DSF:
    rickithebear,

    If the answer is Schneider, which of Hopkins, Eberle or Hall would you be prepared to give up for him?

    Only a Dys fan would think their back up goalie is worth one of those three.

    And you berate Oiler fans for over valuing their players?

    Lordy.

    Also,

    New lines at practice.

    Looks like Renney read my list but made a twist.

    37-93-14
    4-89-83
    55-10-94
    16-20-28

    Hubub with 37 practicing up with 93&14 is that 23 might be on his way up. Or 91.

    I’d bet on 23.

    Nice to see Renney move 93 away from 4 and 83. Not enough pucks on the ice for those three.

    Like LT says 93 is a puck magician, but having him with 4 and 83 is overkill and too many cooks spoil that soup a little.

    14 and 93 >>> 14 and 89 too, so its a win-win.

    Didn’t see the D pairings.

  30. In the Grease says:

    @ DSF and Hunter 1909.

    I guess to frame my point another way, if I’m looking at our defence prospect pool versus our forward prospect pool, and if we are drafting second, given the choice of Grigorenko, Murray, or Forsberg – I would be targeting one of the forwards.

    I think we have at least one or two diamonds in the rough in our D prospects that will be able to integrate as impact players in the not too distant future. Will the timing be perfect? Hard to predict, but it’s the gamble I’d have to take given the facts.

    And Hunter, as you mentioned, “most NHL teams usually have a very good bottom 6″ – do we? (painful rhetorical question) Wouldn’t another elite player in the top 6 naturally help to place whatever quality second tier prospects we do have in the bottom 6, rather than force us to plug them into a top 6 role they can’t handle ?

    And what of the excellent forward depth necessary for an elite team to push deep into the playoffs?

    Though I’m thrilled to have RNH, Hall, and Eberle in Oiler silks, we have seen each of them go down with assorted injuries this season, with no one really able to step in from outside of the top 6 to effectively fill the void. Our callups have included Green, O’Marra (since traded), Cornet, Kytnar(!)…

    To be clear, I’d be thrilled to have Ryan Murray in the fold, but a choice will have to made come draft day between a D or F, and as difficult a decision as it is, I think it’s got to be another elite forward.

    Hopefully this is also be in sync with BPA.

    Also joining Ducey in keeping an eye on Gernat…. isn’t it about our turn for some incredible late-round draft luck?

  31. neojanus says:

    You don’t need to get an elite goalie by any means, but you need a goalie whose numbers sit better than Dubnyk’s consistently do.

    I don’t believe Dubnyk is a better goalie on another team; I believe Dubnyk is an AHL goalie on another team.

    Khabibulin is a great choice for a goalie… 6 years ago.

    You either try to grow an elite goalie, trade away the team and hope for the best, or get an above average stalwart that gives the team a chance to win every night if the team shows up.

    The weakness is two-fold here. Not a full defensive core and not a goalie that can be trusted not to give up a stinker or two every second game.

    Dubnyk is never going to be the trusted guy. Too many holes in his game. This isn’t new. We saw holes in his game before he wore an Oilers jersey.

  32. Traktor says:

    DSF:
    rickithebear,

    If the answer is Schneider, which of Hopkins, Eberle or Hall would you be prepared to give up for him?

    Why not just hold out for Stamkos?

  33. DSF says:

    Traktor: Why not just hold out for Stamkos?

    Interesting you should mention Stamkos.

    Speculation out here on the coast is that Yzerman is very interested in trading for a Canuck goalie in the offseason although it may be Luongo not Schneider.

  34. cabbiesmacker says:

    sliderule:
    If the oil finish bottom three and take a defender Stu will have failed.

    If only we had a crystal ball I guess.

    Still makes the most sense for me to tank it and grab a top 2 spot. Not because we need the player available in that spot as much as what a top pick could bring in return for dropping down. I’m betting the Oilers could still get a guy they’re high on, say a Reinhart or Trouba while grabbing an NHL player, or a ready / close to ready in addition. I’d like to know what the Islanders, Sabres, or Hurricanes would give up for the pick swap or pick swap + sweetener.

    If you luck out with the percentages and pull off #1 overall it’s Yakupov all the way of course.

    Really like to see ST and company go outside the box this year. None of the D available look ready to knock your socks off and we’re not sitting horrible at F with the kids in place. Plus there is absolutely jack all to be gained by winning, which I kinda doubt happens anyway, and moving down. We need to be building around those kids for the NOW and that can happen with some creativity on draft day.

    As a BTW…Obviously the graduated kids skew matters but that prospect list doesn’t exactly send shivers down my spine. I see a whole lot more disappointment and career AHL’ers than I do sure bets.

  35. spoiler says:

    Oscar Klefbom (30, 0-0-0 -1 FARJESTAD) Defender showed well at the WJ’s and is seeing 13.5 minutes a night in the SEL during the regular year. That’s up from 8.5 minutes a night one year ago and Klefbom may push for a job in North America next fall. His lack of offense suggests we might be looking at more of a Smid-type than we’ve been led to believe, but we’ll have to wait and see.

    The lack of a second assist in the SEL is absolutely killer to a defenseman’s point totals.

    speeds makes a great point about this team needing forwards more than defensemen in the system, but I think it’s fait accompli they take a defender in the lottery.

    As much of a fait accompli as the Hemsky trade, lol?

  36. DSF says:

    Woodguy: Only a Dys fan would think their back up goalie is worth one of those three.

    And you berate Oiler fans for over valuing their players?

    Lordy.

    It’s all about market value WG.

    The Canucks’ only holes, and they aren’t big ones, are scoring wingers.

    Outside of RNH, Hall or Eberle the Oilers don’t have any.

    Building a trade around someone like Gagner or anyone of the Oilers defensive prospects would be ridiculous unless Gillis was somehow desperate to rebuild the Chicago Wolves. He isn’t.

    In a EJ post today, Willis is recommending Tambellini offersheet Schneider.

    That might be plausible but I expect Gillis would just match it unless it was obscene.

    DB 3 AH 1

  37. Woodguy says:

    DSF: Interesting you should mention Stamkos.

    Speculation out here on the coast is that Yzerman is very interested in trading for a Canuck goalie in the offseason although it may be Luongo not Schneider.

    Taking on that behemoth of a contract they might need to throw in Hodgson too just to make it work…..oh that’s right…..well….Kessler then I guess.

    That assume Yz gives up nothing but cap space a prospect and a pick.

  38. cabbiesmacker says:

    DSF: Interesting you should mention Stamkos.
    Speculation out here on the coast is that Yzerman is very interested in trading for a Canuck goalie in the offseason although it may be Luongo not Schneider.

    So either of those goalies + Mary Kate and Ashley + a first could get him for you DSF?

  39. Woodguy says:

    DSF: It’s all about market value WG.

    The Canucks’ only holes, and they aren’t big ones, are scoring wingers.

    Outside of RNH, Hall or Eberle the Oilers don’t have any.

    Building a trade around someone like Gagner or anyone of the Oilers defensive prospects would be ridiculous unless Gillis was somehow desperate to rebuild the Chicago Wolves. He isn’t.

    In a EJ post today, Willis is recommending Tambellini offersheet Schneider.

    That might be plausible but I expect Gillis would just match it unless it was obscene.

    DB 3 AH 1

    It is about market value, and Schneider doesn’t have that kind of market value.

    He has more value than Gagner, but the RFA years left on the 3 kdis make them worth much more.

    I think offer sheeting Schnieder is a splendid idea, i doubt it would work, but at the least you get to throw a monkey wrench into the Dys works.

  40. DSF says:

    Woodguy: Taking on that behemoth of a contract they might need to throw in Hodgson too just to make it work…..oh that’s right…..well….Kessler then I guess.

    That assume Yz gives up nothing but cap space a prospect and a pick.

    The “behemoth” contract actually has 2 outclauses built into it so it’s hardly unmanageable at a cap hit of $5.3M.

    Yzerman could easily recoup his investment with one decent playoff run.

    As well, it seems likely there will be an amnesty clause in the next CBA so Luongo’s contract would really be a moot point.

  41. DSF says:

    Woodguy: It is about market value, and Schneider doesn’t have that kind of market value.

    He has more value than Gagner, but the RFA years left on the 3 kdis make them worth much more.

    I think offer sheeting Schnieder is a splendid idea, i doubt it would work, but at the least you get to throw a monkey wrench into the Dys works.

    Exactly.

    There is no trade there since Vancouver doesn’t need anything the Oilers have other than those three.

    You would think Schneider’s market value would be north of what the Avs paid for Varlamov although I would think Gillis would want a good player not a pick.

  42. DSF says:

    cabbiesmacker: So either of those goalies + Mary Kate and Ashley + a first could get him for you DSF?

    Stamkos isn’t going anywhere.

  43. DSF says:

    Edmonton Oilers ‏ @NHL_Oilers

    Coach Renney says Andy Sutton will return to the lineup tomorrow and Lennart Petrell may play top 6 up front as part of line shuffling

  44. ironsight says:

    on a related note, KLEFBOM SCORES!!!

    Since returning from the WJHC, he’s averaging over 16:30 in 14gp. Pretty good considering there’s not much PP time mixed in there. Also worth noting that he was hurt again recently and missed 3 games with an elbow injury.

    Given the injury issues, lack of offence, and concern with TOI, I would think he’ll be in North America under Oilers’ tutelage and control next season.

  45. Woodguy says:

    DSF: Exactly.

    There is no trade there since Vancouver doesn’t need anything the Oilers have other than those three.

    You would think Schneider’s market value would be north of what the Avs paid for Varlamov although I would think Gillis would want a good player not a pick.

    Well, Avs overpaid for Varly.

    Willis is suggesting sheeting Schnieder at the max 2nd round pick $ figure (should be around $3.4MM)

    If VAN matches they can’t trade him for a year, so it messes them up a bit unless they can get creative and move LOLongo.

    He’d probably go back to Florida given that his family lives there. $5.3MM isn’t too onerous today, but the actual $6.716MM/yr for the next 7 years for a guy who will be 33 next TC and with lots of miles on the odometer might be too steep for the TBY owners.

  46. rickithebear says:

    Schnieder was the answer. An unavailable answer.

    Dubnyk’s two year SV% average is equal to most on the list. Price , Bishop, Vokoun, Harding. would be about an 8G upgrade over 65GM. Nabakov has been historicaly similiar to Dubnyk’s average. Vokoun has experienced a regression .925; .922, .917 at age 33 to 35.

    Limited upgrades: in UFA..
    AHL goalies face less quality scorers than KHL, SM-ligga, and SEL,
    So what is out there in the european three.
    KHL:
    Verhonen (34), Koval (31), Ersberg (30) Lassila.
    SEL:
    Alsenfelt (24),
    SM-Ligga:
    Riksman (34)

    what to do!

  47. DSF says:

    Woodguy: Well, Avs overpaid for Varly.

    Willis is suggesting sheeting Schnieder at the max 2nd round pick $ figure (should be around $3.4MM)

    If VAN matches they can’t trade him for a year, so it messes them up a bit unless they can get creative and move LOLongo.

    He’d probably go back to Florida given that his family lives there.$5.3MM isn’t too onerous today, but the actual $6.716MM/yr for the next 7 years for a guy who will be 33 next TC and with lots of miles on the odometer might be too steep for the TBY owners.

    At $3.4M, Gillis just matches and that’s likely less than what Gillis would pay him if he just signed him outright.

    I can see Luongo going to either TB or Florida and Gills has a trade history with both organizations especially with Tallon.

    But with Vinik in TB I doubt the dollars are a big deal especially with the possibility of the amnesty.

  48. Captain Obvious says:

    I endorse everything woodguy says:

    Hall–Gagner–Hemsky is one of the best lines in the league. This is the Oilers best line by a mile. They should be stuck together like glue. Playing two pass first players like Hopkins and Hemsky together is a mistake. It also puts Hemsky and Hall out with Belanger for defensive zone draws.

    Putting Petrell on with Hopkins and Eberle should be good for some laughs.

    Drafting D early in the first round is usually a mistake. However, it isn’t as big a mistake as drafting a “potential” power forward who hasn’t backed up that potential with actual goals. Avoid Forsberg at all costs. This team is going to draft first (if it wins the lottery) or third or fourth (if it doesn’t). In either case Grigorenko is probably off the table unless he falls to them. If he falls take him, but otherwise the Oilers may have no choice but to take the defensemen. In which case skating ability trumps everything.

  49. oilersfan says:

    i am annoyed with the commentators loving Schneider and Bernier so much. Put either of those two on the Oilers and I think their warts would be shining brightly.

    i wouldn’t trade more than a second rounder for either of them as neither are proven at all. they are backup goalies to two of the best defensive teams in the league. They play once every third game (or in Bernier’s case every sixth game) and face 23 realtively easy shots per game. totally unproven backups that may or may not be outstanding starters. I would just as soon sign a few Yan Danis’ of the world and take my chances. Craig Anderson would have been a good signing imo, over 60 games per year for 3 years just as likely to outplay guys like Bernier or Schneider.

    If Dubnyk was the backup on the kings or the canucks all the national media guys would be saying how he is the key to a Rick Nash deal lol

  50. DBO says:

    I wonder due to Columbus’ painful Russian experiences, would they pass on the Russians? Drafting a top end dman like Murray, to go with their improving d corps may make some sense in the eyes of the Org. that woudl make the 2 and 3 pick much more interesting.

    I only pushed for forsberg under the assumption that he was Landeskogesque. if that is not so, then I agree, stay away.

    The lines look good, especially f they bring up Harsky and put him with RNH and Eberle.

  51. gogliano says:

    DSF,

    I think the Dys are prudent to be staying away from Crosby and his injury history.

    And no way 3.4 million isn’t matched by the Dys.

  52. Gerta Rauss says:

    I think Yakupov goes #1 no matter who holds the pick.

    If the Oilers win the lottery I would seriously consider shopping 1OV…package that with Paajarvi and maybe Peckham and see if that gets you a 1D.

    If we take Yakupov ourselves we’re going to wind up trading pitching for hitting anyway.

  53. gogliano says:

    DBO,

    Talent gap is way too big to stay away from the Russians and both have shown a commitment to NA. It’ll be Yakupov almost surely.

  54. VOR says:

    There are quite a number of compounding factors the Oilers need to consider in upgrading there goaltending.

    Try asking the question this way. Which matters most to the Oilers’ goals against a)SV% or b) shots against?

    The answer is, shots againsts matter more. If you adjust Dubnyk to league average SV% you save 11 goals. If you adjust the Oilers so Dubnyk faces the leage average # of shots you get 11 goals less. Doing the same thing with Khabibulin and we get 7 fewer goals with league average shots against and no change with SV% adjustment). So league average shots gets you 18 fewer goals. League average SV% gets you 11 fewer goals.

    If we make two huge assumptions a) that Schneider could play every game (which he can’t) and that his SV% wouldn’t be changed by coming to Edmonton (which it would), then based on his career SV% he would get you 25 fewer goals. Sounds plausibly except who knows what happens when Schneider plays 60 games behind our D. If we had some metric for shot quality we could make a guess at least. So we have to assume no difference. Then what we get is Schneider for 60 games results in 18 fewer goals. Us reducing our shots against to league average saves us 18 goals.

    Conversely we could try going with the Canucks model of dominating on offence and going for 30 shots for and 30 against every night and see if it improves our goalies SV%. Speeds more forwards argument would help here.

    There is however, a far easier way to get our goals against down by 20 goals and no changes are needed. First, stop pulling our goaltender. There goes ten goals against.

    Seriously though, pull Dubnyk every time there is a powerplay for either team. At even strength each of the last two years he has been in the top 25 goaltenders with more than 30 games played at ES (both years posting .921). This year he is just brutal on the power play costing us 6 more goals. He has also let in four goals while we have been on the powerplay.

    I am suggesting, that it is just possible that if the Oilers tilted the ice either by giving up fewer scoring chances or by getting more we’d not be having this conversation about Schneider. Similarly if Dubnyk wasn’t struggling on special teams and Schneider wasn’t having an out of body experience (does everybody actually think he can sustain a .956 SV% while his team is a man short) we wouldn’t be considering it. EVs this year Schneider is .926 and Dubnyk .921. I am betting, and I think most of you would agree, that Vancouver probably gives up fewer qulaity scoring chances than we dout a similar # of shots so you have to figure Schneider’s EV SV% would drop somewhat. He certainly isn’t going to go .956 SV% on the penalty kill for very much longer.

    So I am a little less sold than some of you on his being the magic bullet. Fine young goaltender. Probably going to be a good #1 on a good team. We are not a good team. At least not yet. Can he carry us until we are? The truth is we have no idea. He has never played on a bad team.

  55. rickithebear says:

    oilersfan: If Dubnyk was the backup on the kings or the canucks all the national media guys would be saying how he is the key to a Rick Nash deal lol

    AMEN BROTHER!

  56. OilLeak says:

    Captain Obvious:
    I endorse everything woodguy says:

    Hall–Gagner–Hemsky is one of the best lines in the league.This is the Oilers best line by a mile.They should be stuck together like glue.Playing two pass first players like Hopkins and Hemsky together is a mistake.It also puts Hemsky and Hall out with Belanger for defensive zone draws.

    Putting Petrell on with Hopkins and Eberle should be good for some laughs.

    Drafting D early in the first round is usually a mistake. However, it isn’t as big a mistake as drafting a “potential” power forward who hasn’t backed up that potential with actual goals.Avoid Forsberg at all costs.This team is going to draft first (if it wins the lottery) or third or fourth (if it doesn’t).In either case Grigorenko is probably off the table unless he falls to them.If he falls take him, but otherwise the Oilers may have no choice but to take the defensemen.In which case skating ability trumps everything.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Renney already has a contract extension in his back pocket, so playing Gagner with those two will only drive up his value in negotiations this off-season.

    I’m pretty sure that management doesn’t want to pay Gagner 4 million a seaon… yet.

  57. Jordan says:

    gogliano,

    If Columbus wins the lottery, considering their need for a #1 C, I could see them taking a nice 6’2″ Centreman. Nothing wrong with Grig – Johanssen as a 1-2 C moving forwards.

  58. sliderule says:

    In the fall I thought it was a given that we would pick a defender.2012 draft was supposed to be loaded with high end defenders

    What happened?

    Murray got hurt and Reilly tore up his knee.Reinhart has had a so so season and didn’t get a sniff at WJ team.Compared to what Hamilton did last year were is the beef?

    Our defense prospects are tracking way better than our forwards.Klefbom had a great WJ and he is only two months older than Murray.The reports on the 100 mph slap shot Marcinin have been good.Then we have Stus gem Gernat.Musil while slow is a great junior defender and may surprise.

    When you pick top five and there are no outstanding defenders take a forward.

  59. hockeyguy10 says:

    DSF,

    Vancouver can’t just simply match 3.4 mil.That would put their goalie cap hit at almost 9 mil for 2 goalies.With just a quick glance at Capgeek most teams pay their goalie tandem around 5-7 mil. if they have an elite goalie.Teams without pay in the 4-5 mil range.

    If Schneider is offered 3.4 mil I am guessing the Dys pass unless they have a sign and trade in place.

  60. ehuisman says:

    Tuohimaa hasn’t actually played any games for Jokerit after the christmas break and your winter ranking. He spent latter half of the regular season with Kiekko-Vantaa in the 2nd tier league Mestis, and did a good job there. He ended up with a .922 sv%, good for 4th in the league he was a rookie in.

    His team got eliminated by the regular season champs Jukurit in the first round of the playoffs, so he’s back with Jokerit now. He actually played the last game of the U20 team in their regular season (the teams are allowed to dress a certain number of overaged players, just like in the CHL), but it is likely that they will rely on the 2012 eligible Joonas Korpisalo as their starter when the playoffs begin on Friday.

    Since Jokerit already has their #1 goalie Eero Kilpeläinen signed for next year, it might make sense for Tuohimaa to look elsewhere. His contract expires after the season and there has been rumors about him signing with a smaller SM-liiga club such as SaiPa, but making the jump to the Oilers system is a possibility as well, of course.

  61. Woodguy says:

    hockeyguy10:
    DSF,

    Vancouver can’t just simply match 3.4 mil.That would put their goalie cap hit at almost 9 mil for 2 goalies.With just a quick glance at Capgeek most teams pay their goalie tandem around 5-7 mil. if they have an elite goalie.Teams without pay in the 4-5 mil range.

    If Schneider is offered 3.4 mil I am guessing the Dys pass unless they have a sign and trade in place.

    If Schneider signs the offer sheet, Dys can’t trade him to someone else.

    They can let him go or match.

    It ties their hands.

    They also cannot trade the player for 1 year after matching an offer sheet.

    Dys have $55MM tied up on 17 players next year.

    If they match it lessens their ability to add quality around the edges.

    Gillis is smart though, probably has LOLongo traded already.

    That’s what I’d be trying to do.

  62. hunter1909 says:

    OilLeak: I wouldn’t be surprised if Renney already has a contract extension in his back pocket, so playing Gagner with those two will only drive up his value in negotiations this off-season.

    Renney NEEDS to stop Head Coaching this team, from the day his contract expires. One day who knows, everyone agrees he at least presided over something incredible: 2-3 guaranteed cup wins ahead.

  63. godot10 says:

    If Schneider gets offered sheeted, Luongo gets traded.

    Luongo gets traded anyways if the Canucks don’t win the Cup. I think Tampa would be happy to take Luongo’s contract.

    The Oilers need to improve their defence more than anything else. There seem to be bigger questions about Grigorenko than any of the uninjured defensemen at the top of the draft. I think Paajarvi outscored Forsberg at similar age in the elite league.

    One can always trade defensemen. They hold their value better than forwards. I think the Oilers are drafting Murray or Reinhart. I think that was one of the reasons for the Gilbert for Schultz trade.

    I can see Mike Green being available in the off-season if the Capitals miss the playoffs, or bomb in the playoffs.

  64. hockeyguy10 says:

    Woodguy,

    Ahhhh…….didn’t know that. Put in the offer.

  65. spoiler says:

    I would really like to know how good of a playoff goalie Dubnyk is.

  66. Lowetide says:

    spoiler:
    I would really like to know how good of a playoff goalie Dubnyk is.

    I’m hoping the Oilers will be patient with him, give him the #1 job in the fall and let him run with it. IF Dubnyk can be #1G, the Oilers will have a major item solved in house. If they start fishing around they could be where TOR has been in goal for years.

  67. DSF says:

    Woodguy: If Schneider signs the offer sheet, Dys can’t trade him to someone else.

    They can let him go or match.

    It ties their hands.

    They also cannot trade the player for 1 year after matching an offer sheet.

    Dys have $55MM tied up on 17 players next year.

    If they match it lessens their ability to add quality around the edges.

    Gillis is smart though, probably has LOLongo traded already.

    That’s what I’d be trying to do.

    I have little doubt it would be Luongo on the way out of town.

    If the Oilers offer sheeted Schneider, which he likely wouldn’t sign if came from the Oilers, Tambellini would be doing Gills a big favour at $3.4M.

    You know, people keep talking about the cap next season as if they know what it’s going to be…which is just silly.

    Not only is there no way to know what it’s going to but there is also the spectre of the amnesty for one contract which Vancouver would obviously use on Luongo.

    Based on what we know now, under the current CBA rules, the cap would likely rise by about $4M due to the increase in HRR triggered by the Thrashers moving to Winnipeg and a Canadian dollar that’s been at or above par all season.

    If that were the case, Gillis could absorb a $3.4M contract for Schneider without breaking a sweat.

  68. Woodguy says:

    DSF,

    he likely wouldn’t sign if came from the Oilers, Tambellini would be doing Gills a big favour at $3.4M.

    I think you are 100% wrong there. Its $3.4MM/yr. I doubt he bleeds Dys blood enough to take less. If he loves life in VAN he signs hoping VAN matches. Make no mistake, he either shops that number to VAN or he signs it.

    Not only is there no way to know what it’s going to but there is also the spectre of the amnesty for one contract which Vancouver would obviously use on Luongo.

    Obviously?

    Roberto Luongo buyout from CapGeek.com

    2012-13: $195,467
    2013-14: $195,467
    2014-15: $195,467
    2015-16: $195,467
    2016-17: $195,467
    2017-18: $195,467
    2018-19: $3,527,467
    2019-20: $5,291,467
    2020-21: $5,909,467
    2021-22: $5,909,467
    2022-23: $1,576,133
    2023-24: $1,576,133
    2024-25: $1,576,133
    2025-26: $1,576,133
    2026-27: $1,576,133
    2027-28: $1,576,133
    2028-29: $1,576,133
    2029-30: $1,576,133
    2030-31: $1,576,133
    2031-32: $1,576,133

    That’s the cap hit on his buy out.

    The $$$ is $1.576MM/yr for the next 20 years.

    Its like winning an American lottery.

    Future value of those $ is certainly less than present value, but those are still big numbers.

  69. spoiler says:

    godot10,

    Woodguy,

    Agreed. If Schneider is OS’ed, then Jesus Luongo gets traded and the sheet matched.

    Don’t know if I would want to force their hand on that.

  70. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: I’m hoping the Oilers will be patient with him, give him the #1 job in the fall and let him run with it. IF Dubnyk can be #1G, the Oilers will have a major item solved in house. If they start fishing around they could be where TOR has been in goal for years.

    Steady as she goes, agreed. Nor would I waste any assets on goaltending right now (more than the picks we have already spent). Goalies seem too easy to pick up as UFAs to be trading or OSing for them. A good goalie is obviously a difference maker, but so are good defenses and good systems.

    But I would still be happy for Doobie to get the Jimi Hendrix Experience next spring.

    We could all use it.

  71. hockeyguy10 says:

    LT,

    Do you follow Andy Borowitz on Twitter? He is quite good.

  72. spoiler says:

    Pretty good list, LT, There’s a couple of players I’d flip with the guy behind them but that’s minor.

    The big item is the meteoric rise* that Gernat has made, but it’s pretty hard to argue with that placement; the kid has earned it. If he has sustain that is a real draft steal.

    *I never could understand this one. Don’t meteors by definition fall from our perspective?

  73. Lowetide says:

    spOILer: Yeah, I would have moved a few around but this is just the Christmas list unchanged. A nice season for many, though.

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