G80 Oilers at Kings

The Edmonton Oilers are adding about three kids a year–I know it seems like more than that–each season. In 10-11, Hall, Eberle and Dubnyk joined the band and this season it’s Nugent-Hopkins, Anton Lander and perhaps a late entry in Teemu Hartikainen. Paajarvi? Pending. We shouldn’t dismiss the value of a late round addition to the rebuild, and Hartikainen seems as good a bet as any to join the group.

The Oilers at LW for 12-13 should feature Taylor Hall (once healthy), Ryan Smyth (once signed), Ben Eager and Lennart Petrell (if he’s signed). Hartikainen, Magnus Paajarvi and Linus Omark (hahahaha) might also be in the mix, and Ryan Jones can play either wing but should be in the conversation.

Hartikainen would seem to offer enough of a unique skill set (big man, who hits, and has some offensive ability, is young enough to grow with the cluster) to be (along with Paajarvi) an obvious choice for a job behid Hall and Smyth. He shouldn’t be given a job, but this is two years in a row that the big Finn has impressed upon recall.

The Kings need two points and the Oilers played last night. Adding in the state of the Oilers defense, and the possibility MVP starts in goal, Wile E Coyote says it best:

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180 Responses to "G80 Oilers at Kings"

  1. Ducey says:

    Whats up with Ben “Not So” Eager?

    He had a nice February: 13 games 4 pts +1 22 PIM 21 hits 22 SOG

    March? 10 games 2 pts +2 4 PIM 5 hits 10 SOG

    He doesn’t have to fight every game but he has not been sticking up for the kids or hitting.

    Is it just me, or does VDV look more effective than Petrell?

  2. neojanus says:

    Khabby? Really?

    I have been a cynical critic of Dubnyk all year (I admit it openly), but he’s earned his role and should be tested in a back-to-back situation. I stick Khabby in net when I want to guarantee a loss now. Who knows? The Oilers are looking at 28th as the likely finish assuming both Montreal and Edmonton can win one and loss two.

    I like Hartikainen quite a bit. He’s a role player we don’t have enough of and has impressed me. He’ll assert himself more as he gets experienced.

    The Kings will be furiously up tempo tonight. If the Oilers start Khabby, I predict the Kings crush us tonight. Too many players taking the nights off and a woeful defense… WOEFUL!

  3. Lowetide says:

    The thing I was worried about with Eager (that coach Renney would play him 14 minutes a night) but they played him almost exactly as they should have and he hasn’t delivered close to quality. Belanger was a better bet, and he didn’t work out either, but I’d be more inclined to bring back Belanger and send Eager to OKC.

  4. Lowetide says:

    NEO: Well, given the chance I’d start Dubnyk every night. But the Oilers have remained true to their Russian even in the face of overwhelming evidence.

  5. rickithebear says:

    Oilers recall Rodney

  6. Ducey says:

    rickithebear: Oilers recall Rodney

    Dangerfield?

  7. rich says:

    Why would the MVP start tonight? Well, if you’re goin to lose, you might as well lose big could be Renney’s thinking.

    If the MVP had played last night, it would have easily been 4 or 5 goals against.

    With that defense and only one line that’s able to consistently move the puck out of their end, I at least won’t have to worry about staying up late to watch the game.

  8. rickithebear says:

    neojanus: I like Hartikainen quite a bit. He’s a role player we don’t have

    last 8 games in 10-11 he played with MP, Omark, Gagner, Eberle. 2G 2A even
    first 5 games Jan. this year played wit 4th line 11MIN/GM 0G 0A -4
    Last 7 games of the year played with gagner, hemsky, RNH, Eberle.
    16;30 Min/GM 2G 3A +7
    So when he plays with top 6 the last two years he 15GM 5G 5A +7

    Do i expect 25G 25A playing LW with RNH-Eberle next year. Heck yeah!

  9. Brett Gee says:

    For me, it’s Taylor, Hartikainen, PRV and Smyth. Roll with that and see what happens. And give it more than a week.

  10. LMHF#1 says:

    Brett Gee:
    For me, it’s Taylor, Hartikainen, PRV and Smyth.Roll with that and see what happens.And give it more than a week.

    This. All day long.

    Hemsky, Eberle, Omark and whoever on the other side. That’d be a beauty group of wingers.

  11. Dipstick says:

    As much as I am a fan of PRV, he needs to show that he can go to the “dirty areas” before he can pass Smyth, Petrell and Eager on the depth chart. I don’t believe that he is showing “top six” play yet.

  12. whale says:

    LT:
    If Smyth had stayed with the Kings in his final year and became a free agent on July 1st, would the Oilers be going after him? Would he be that UFA that they’re looking for? If not, are they being forced/coerced into signing him?

  13. bookje says:

    I think you start Khabibulin because you are fine with losing. The team has seen some positives and they all know that they are likely a .500 team or better with DD type goaltending. You play Khabibulin a few games near the end to ensure a good draft pick and then as soon as you can, you let it be known that he will not be tending net in Edmonton next year so that the team is assured that they won’t have to play in front of him again for another season.

    I wouldn’t panic with either Eagar or Belanger. I think both had rough years, but would bring them both back if they have maintained a good attitude towards the team.

  14. cabbiesmacker says:

    Ducey: Dangerfield?

    King.

    Woodguy and DSF need to start….getting along.

  15. LoDog says:

    whale,

    I don’t think they wanted him then nor do they really want him now. Kind of forced upon us. Management gets so much vitriol from the fanbase that once it came out Smyth wanted to come back they almost had no choice. At least Tambo didn’t give up what a large portion of the fanbase would have.

    Hard to say if they would have any interest in him as a UFA if he didn’t play here this year. MP might have a different year if Smyth wasn’t around. Or he could of sucked and they would be in the market for a LW. Never know now.

    Oh wait, I’m not LT, never mind.

  16. Lowetide says:

    whale:
    LT:
    If Smyth had stayed with the Kings in his final year and became a free agent on July 1st, would the Oilers be going after him? Would he be that UFA that they’re looking for? If not, are they being forced/coerced into signing him?

    I don’t think the Oilers will be forced into anything, but imo NOT signing Smyth would be idiotic. Unless he’s looking for a long deal at big money.

  17. jake70 says:

    Any Hemsky update (shoulder)?

  18. whale says:

    Lowetide: I don’t think the Oilers will be forced into anything, but imo NOT signing Smyth would be idiotic. Unless he’s looking for a long deal at big money.

    I can agree that a short term (maybe one year at a time) with 3rd line, subdued responsibilities would be doable. I just don’t think the Oilers would be going after him otherwise.

  19. Lowetide says:

    whale: I can agree that a short term (maybe one year at a time) with 3rd line, subdued responsibilities would be doable. I just don’t think the Oilers would be going after him otherwise.

    Well, he’s still facing tough opponents and has scored way more offense than I thought he would.

  20. bookje says:

    Lowetide: I don’t think the Oilers will be forced into anything, but imo NOT signing Smyth would be idiotic. Unless he’s looking for a long deal at big money.

    From a PR point of view, they would be better to overpay him for a one year contract and then do it again next year. This is a case where you can’t worry too much about the $$. Tambellini controls the situation as Smyth’s wife seems to want him playing here, but Tambellini should not over-leverage that as Smyth is a fan favorite.

  21. Ribs says:

    Sounds like Potter’s not feeling so great after that hit last night. Somehow the blue got even worse than the lineup that played against the Ducks.

  22. Jordan says:

    bookje: From a PR point of view, they would be better to overpay him for a one year contract and then do it again next year.This is a case where you can’t worry too much about the $$.Tambellini controls the situation as Smyth’s wife seems to want him playing here, but Tambellini should not over-leverage that as Smyth is a fan favorite.

    I absolutely agree. If there has been one thing that the Oilers seem to care more about now, it’s the PR side of things.

    If the recall ridiculousness drilled anything home, while they may care more, it doesn’t make them any more competent. So while that might be the best plan, I wouldn’t bet that they will make it there.

    Brett Gee:
    For me, it’s Taylor, Hartikainen, PRV and Smyth.Roll with that and see what happens.And give it more than a week.

    LMHF#1: This. All day long.
    Hemsky, Eberle, Omark and whoever on the other side. That’d be a beauty group of wingers.

    That group of LWers looks very strong. The RW looks quite meek, and while they have A LOT of skill in regards to play making, there really isn’t much diversity there. Having another boards guy would really help a lot. With Eberle and Hemsky ahead of him, I don’t think there’s room for Omark. Not enough easy minutes for him.

    Jones would end up moving around based on need, but he does bring something the others don’t. Eager as an extra would be nice, and keep him fresh, and his back well rested (hahaha…).

    But if we don’t keep Omark, it leaves a spot open on the RW.

    If we could bring Stoll back to play the hard minutes at C and either have the dirty russian or the cursed frenchman play RW with him and Smyth, that would do a lot to give us a real hard minutes line with a full complement of hard minute players, while still keeping the depth chart quite deep.

    Lineup might end up looking like
    4 – 93 – 14
    56 – 89 – 83
    94 – 16 – 20
    91 – 10 – 28
    55 – ???

    Doesn’t help Lander any, but he’s not ready for prime time right now anyways, so it’s a bit of a straw man anyways.

    Realistically, if we are keeping the kids together and sheltered, we need more tough minute players period.

    Wow… I just realized all of this is presuming that Hall is actually ready to start the season too. *shiver*.

  23. rickithebear says:

    Sorry our team cannot consider not having Jones and Belanger.

    The median for:
    Pk centers 5.93GA/60
    PK wingers 5.50 GA/60
    Horcoff #55 of 91C 6.65
    Smyth #56 of 87Wing 6.45
    Belanger #23C 4.89,
    Jones#20Wing 4.42
    Belangers and jones elite PK time is equal to 6 minutes each of tough even time.
    There pk time is too important to this team.

    HORCOFF AND SMYTH ARE BELOW AVERAGE PKERS AND REPLACING AS THE 2ND PAIR.

    The only Free agent center better than Belanger on PK.
    Prust 3.22
    Jarret Stoll 4.78.
    From median to Belanger
    Gaustad 5.19
    Kelly 5.30
    when you look at production numbers. Stoll is there with gagner and Horcoff in the last 5 years.

    Realistic FA wings Better than Jones on PK.
    Comeau 2.65
    Stempniak 3.48
    Winnick 3.88
    Nothing realistic from median to jones.
    Of the three stempniak is the only one better at evens.

    WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE COLEECTION OF ABOVE AVERAGE PK PLAYERS.
    MANY HAVE BEEN COACHED BY PERN.
    Would be a nice coach?

    Kitchener rangers generate great pk players.
    Tobias rieder is one of the Ohl’s best and was 2nd in shorthanded goals with 7.

    EDIT: started this at coffee.

  24. Jordan says:

    rickithebear,

    God, Ricki.

    You go and do all this work that supports what I think the Oilers should do, and then post it right after me?

    What a jerk… =D

  25. regwald says:

    Weldwood gone for the season with a broken foot. Does that make him injury prone ? ;)

  26. Traktor says:

    regwald:
    Weldwood gone for the season with a broken foot. Does that make him injury prone ?

    Even if he gets injured he would still be a strong candidate to outperform his contact since he has been making around 1M the last couple years.

    Wellwood $14,893 per point
    Hemsky $120,000 per point
    Horcoff $161,174 per point

    Its not hard to figure out where the smart money is.

  27. regwald says:

    As per Stauffer on twitter. Dubnyk to start and Marincin headed to OKC for the playoff run.

  28. Lowetide says:

    Nice to see a defenseman begin that long march. History tells us we shouldn’t count on all of these defensemen, but what is the number? Remember when we watched the college kids (Chorney, Petry and Wild) finding their way?

    33%? Is that the number? I wonder.

  29. Jordan says:

    regwald,

    I don’t know whether to be happy or sad about this… Good to see what he’ll do in back to backs, but worried about climbing into 27th…

    At what point do we take into account the defense playing in front of Dubnyk? Because it’s been aweful, but he’s made it look passable.

  30. godot10 says:

    Dipstick:
    As much as I am a fan of PRV, he needs to show that he can go to the “dirty areas” before he can pass Smyth, Petrell and Eager on the depth chart.I don’t believe that he is showing “top six” play yet.

    Paajarvi can get the puck from the defensive zone to the offensive zone. Smyth, Petrell, and Eager much less so..

    Paajarvi’s “problem” is much less of a problem in the big picture than the problem the other guys have getting the puck up the ice.

  31. cabbiesmacker says:

    regwald:
    Weldwood gone for the season with a broken foot. Does that make him injury prone ?

    No. It just means he blew a tire trying to support the burden of DSF’s hopes, aspirations, and fanmail.

  32. sliderule says:

    Smyth wanted out of LA because they were going to cut down his ice time to third line.That would not have been a good thing for him on the final year of his contract.

    He basically forced Oil to take him and as a result we had to throw MPS under the bus.

    So far nothing too much wrong with this as MPS has probably learned more in OK and Smyth has played well.

    Going forward in two years we are going to have cap problems so Smitty better show the love he says he has for the Oil and Edmonton and take a home team discount.If not let him walk.

  33. bendelson says:

    Potter concussed? No shit. Peckham out as well? You don’t say.

    The league and the individual oranizations within have made an absolute mockery out of the ‘concussion protocols’.

    And it’s definitely not just the Oilers. The damn ‘nucks let their meal ticket put himself at risk for that ever important PP.

    I guess that whole Crosby thing has blown over.
    Good job everyone.

  34. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear,

    Good info Ricki.

    I’ve moved away from looking exclusively at GA/60 to help determine quality defensive play, and particularly PK play with the massive influence ONSV% has on that number.

    I’ve started to look at something they have more influence on, that is Shots Against/60

    Intuitively a PK’er should be able to have some influence on the number of shots against.

    It has been proven often that players have little effect on ONSV% at 5v5, and I suspect the 4v5 results would be similar.

    If we look at 10,94,20,28 (and 37) again, but this time include ONSV% and SA/60, a slightly different picture shows up.

    Player – GAON/60 ONSV% SA/60
    10- 6.65 .875 46.6
    94- 6.45 .873 44.4
    20- 4.89 .896 42.2
    28- 4.42 .901 45.0
    37- 8.25 .795 32.1

    I’d suggest that 94,10,20, and 28 are almost interchangeable and that the difference in GA/60 is due to ONSV%.

    37 on the other hand, looks terrible via GA/60, but is very good via SA/60. His GA/60 can also be mostly explained by ONSV%, which is wretched compared to the other 4.

    Here is the same stats for Stoll and Prust:

    Stoll 4.78 906 46.2
    Prust 3.22 920 37.2

    Stoll looks very similar to the top 4 Oilers, but Prust is very good across the board and playing in front of Lundqvist , has an unreal ONSV% (Lunqvist is 7th in NHL 4v5 SV% at .908)

  35. Dipstick says:

    As much as I am a fan of PRV, he needs to show that he can go to the “dirty areas” before he can pass Smyth, Petrell and Eager on the depth chart. I don’t believe that he is showing “top six” play yet.

    godot10: Paajarvi can get the puck from the defensive zone to the offensive zone.Smyth, Petrell, and Eager much less so..

    Paajarvi’s “problem” is much less of a problem in the big picture than the problem the other guys have getting the puck up the ice.

    Fair enough, but he still needs to produce in order to play top 6, IMHO. He does not strike me as a perimeter scoring threat.

  36. Ducey says:

    MTL just announced that Price has a “concussion” from “practice last week”. Smooth. That should secure them 29th place.

    The Oilers have been trying their best to tank with their injured defence and now Hemsky, but come on guys, start Bulin!

  37. Lowetide says:

    Price out? Well, that’s it and all. 28th is sealed. Good grief.

  38. godot10 says:

    Dipstick:
    As much as I am a fan of PRV, he needs to show that he can go to the “dirty areas” before he can pass Smyth, Petrell and Eager on the depth chart.I don’t believe that he is showing “top six” play yet.

    Fair enough, but he still needs to produce in order to play top 6, IMHO.He does not strike me as a perimeter scoring threat.

    Smyth, Petrell, and Eager are NOT top six forwards. Paajarvi is better than all three. So he plays top nine. He is better defensively than all those guys too. Paajarvi’s problems are small compared to the the deficiencies in the comparables games. Contenders don’t have a top six. They have a top nine.

  39. bendelson says:

    Ducey,

    So they have been playing their star goalie in ‘nothing’ games while concussed?

    Whoops.

  40. Lowetide says:

    Smyth IS a top 6 forward on this Oilers team. The evidence is in qual comp, points per 60 5×5, etc. He might not be a top 6F (whatever that is) on a strong team, but on this one he’s well clear of the LW’s not named Hall.

  41. godot10 says:

    Renney and the Oilers could learn a lesson from Bylsma and the Penguins about how to respond to cheap shots on a star player. (i.e. a clearly CLEAN but devastating body check on a star player on the opposing team).

    That is how its done. No need for Smac’s or Hordichuk’s.

  42. Woodguy says:

    Ducey:
    MTL just announced that Price has a “concussion” from “practice last week”.Smooth.That should secure them 29th place.

    The Oilers have been trying their best to tank with their injured defence and now Hemsky, but come on guys, start Bulin!

    Its funny, Budja has the same problem as DD this year, horrible on the PK.

    5v5
    Budja .919
    Price .918

    4v5
    Budja .827
    Price .907

    Overall
    Budja .907
    Price .916

    Oilers

    5v5
    DD .927 (tied for 14th in NHL)
    Khabby .913

    4v5
    DD .855 (tied for 36th in NHL)
    Khabby .899

    Overall
    DD .914
    Khabby .910

    Last year DD had a .921 5v5 (tied with Quick for 27th in NHL), and a .889 4v5 (tied 14th NHL with Thomas and Fluery)

    If DD can put together this year’s 5v5 and last years 4v5 he’s a NHL starter.

  43. godot10 says:

    Lowetide:
    Smyth IS a top 6 forward on this Oilers team. The evidence is in qual comp, points per 60 5×5, etc. He might not be a top 6F (whatever that is) on a strong team, but on this one he’s well clear of the LW’s not named Hall.

    The Oilers top six next year, given current personnel SHOULD be

    Hartikainen, Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle
    Hall, Gagner, Hemsky.

    Smyth is NOT a top six player. If he is, the coaching staff is making a huge mistake.

    Smyth, Horcoff, and Paajarvi should be the third line.

  44. asiaoil says:

    The Oilers need a a big center for the top 6 and bottom 6 and defense loaded with large angry men who are willing to behave badly to balance out the smaller, finesse forwards. We are stuck with Horcoff for another year or two unless the CBA comes to the rescue.

    Hall xxx Hemsky
    Smyth Nuge Eberle
    xxx Horcoff xxx
    Eager Belanger Jones

    MPS and Harski can be extras and will get plenty of time due to injury and rotating the 4th line wingers out against softer opposition. A Backes, Kesler or Staal would be a much better compliment to RNH at center than Gagner who should be traded now that his perceived value is about fair value. Obviously tough to fill the center slot but a big #2 center is not as hard to get as a big #1 center. Getting another bigger center and moving Horcoff to the 3rd line would help a bottom 6 has been generally terrible for years now and way too soft and ineffective. Balance? Who needs balance? We are talking about the Oilers.

  45. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Smyth IS a top 6 forward on this Oilers team. The evidence is in qual comp, points per 60 5×5, etc. He might not be a top 6F (whatever that is) on a strong team, but on this one he’s well clear of the LW’s not named Hall.

    I heard Smyth was asking for 5.5MM x 2 years.

    I dismissed that as ridiculous, but its what I heard.

    I think 3.5-4.0MM x 1yr is fair for both sides.

    He’s over 35, if they want to do a 1 year with some performance bonuses they can.

  46. regwald says:

    Jordan:
    regwald,

    I don’t know whether to be happy or sad about this… Good to see what he’ll do in back to backs, but worried about climbing into 27th…

    At what point do we take into account the defense playing in front of Dubnyk?Because it’s been aweful, but he’s made it look passable.

    Hell, it sure looked like it was a Norris Trophy defence last night. They somehow hung on for the win even after all those penalties. DD has come into his own – if only for a stretch. Looked really good again last night.

  47. godot10 says:

    Woodguy,

    Woodguy,

    The Oilers shouldn’t offer Smyth anything more than a 1-year deal with a NMC. $4 million. PERIOD. Take it or leave it.

  48. bendelson says:

    Woodguy,

    In my estimation DD seems to play well when he is getting regular playing time. Sit him for 10 straight and it will take a few games before he shows his A game. Play him often and he becomes a legit NHL starter or damn close to it.

    I think all it is going to take DD to become an actual starter is a coach that believes in him.

  49. LoDog says:

    Woodguy,

    It has been proven often that players have little effect on ONSV% at 5v5, and I suspect the 4v5 results would be similar.

    Could you point me to a source that proves this?

    It would seem to me that somebody, lets call him Shultz, is very good defensively and would allow poorer quality chances than say someone who is lost in his own zone and allows high quality shots..

  50. rich says:

    bendelson,

    Good observation Bendelson. When DD was in the AHL, Rob Daum commented that DD played much better after getting several starts in a row. His numbers were never spectacular (because it was such a bad team in Springfield), but he did show improvement.

    I’m not ready to annoint him the next Grant Fuhr until he shows he can do things a full season, but at least there seems to be a reason to be “glass half full” about the goaltending…until Renney decides to overplay Khabi again at the start of next season.

  51. jake70 says:

    Woodguy: I heard Smyth was asking for 5.5MM x 2 years.

    I dismissed that as ridiculous, but its what I heard.

    I think 3.5-4.0MM x 1yr is fair for both sides.

    He’s over 35, if they want to do a 1 year with some performance bonuses they can.

    Is that 5.5M per? I trust you trust your source?

    If that’s true, well…. LOL. Does 94 still have the same agent? He must.

  52. Dalton says:

    Unlike Rich, I am fully prepared to anoint Devan Dubnyk “the Next Grant Fuhr”. HE’S THE NEXT GRANT FUHR, BOOK IT!

  53. Woodguy says:

    LoDog:
    Woodguy,

    It has been proven often that players have little effect on ONSV% at 5v5, and I suspect the 4v5 results would be similar.

    Could you point me to a source that proves this?

    It would seem to me that somebody, lets call him Shultz, is very good defensively and would allow poorer quality chances than say someone who is lost in his own zone and allows high quality shots..

    I’ll dig it up when I get some time on my laptop (on crackberry)

    Your point of view is common (I thought the same beore I saw the evidence), but as it turns out, it does’t hold up.

  54. bookje says:

    Woodguy: I heard Smyth was asking for 5.5MM x 2 years.

    I dismissed that as ridiculous, but its what I heard.

    I think 3.5-4.0MM x 1yr is fair for both sides.

    He’s over 35, if they want to do a 1 year with some performance bonuses they can.

    That’s crazy talk!

  55. bendelson says:

    Dalton,

    Boy, one month ago DD was getting ripped here on a near daily basis.

    Things have changed.

    Good for DD. He absolutely deserves the chance he should get next year to be ‘the guy’.

  56. Woodguy says:

    jake70,

    I don’t trust my source that much, but that’s the only number I’ver heard.

    I don’t get a lot of solid info, but know some people who know some people.

    What I hear is wrong more often than right.

    At the very least what the final result becomes is often different than what I hear being thrown around.

    A solid E1

    8)

  57. voxwah says:

    Lowetide,

    I think the current kids we have on D are much stronger prospects then the prospects of the past. I’m much more excited about the new kids more then I ever was over Chorney or Wild. I guess the improved draft positioning over the past few years helps.

  58. VOR says:

    Woodguy:

    Lodog:

    This is hockeyanalysis.com’s recent take on whether a player other than the goaltender can effect SV%.

    Make of it what you will.

    http://hockeyanalysis.com/2012/02/09/defenders-effect-on-save/

  59. "Steve Smith" says:

    Traktor: Wellwood $14,893 per point
    Hemsky $120,000 per point
    Horcoff $161,174 per point

    Sidney Crosby (2009-2010 – his best year): $79,817/point
    Corey Potter (2011-2012): $25,000/point

    I guess we see where the smart money is.

    godot10,

    Have you ever checked to see what percentage of your comments include the word “not” in all-caps? It’s roughly 73%.

  60. "Steve Smith" says:

    Woodguy: I’ll dig it up when I get some time

    Since nobody has more spare time than “Steve Smith”: here.

    Though the analysis that Vor posted looks pretty interesting at first glance, and reaches a different conclusion.

  61. spoiler says:

    Thanks for that, Vor.

    Nice to see Schultz on that list. Even if he’s not having a major effect, at least it’s a positive one.

  62. Woodguy says:

    VOR:
    Woodguy:

    Lodog:

    This is hockeyanalysis.com’s recent take on whether a player other than the goaltender can effect SV%.

    Make of it what you will.

    http://hockeyanalysis.com/2012/02/09/defenders-effect-on-save/

    Thanks for that, hadn’t seen it before.

    Basically confirms what the others have shown. Extremely small amount of players affect ONSV% and when they do, the effect is almost negligible, so basically there is no effect.

    People will see an ONSV% of .850 and another of .950 and declare “.950 is much better defensively”, this is not true. Your link shows David pushing to show correlation, but even his results show the effect is almost not measurable.

    Shot against, on the other hand, show something different, but the math is not complete at this time.

  63. Lowetide says:

    “Steve Smith”: Since nobody has more spare time than “Steve Smith”: here.

    Though the analysis that Vor posted looks pretty interesting at first glance, and reaches a different conclusion.

    Can you find my 70-71 Bobby Orr hockey card? My Mom threw it out at the Maidstone, SK dump maybe 1983. Thanks!

  64. Lowetide says:

    Hmmm. It might have been Lloydminster.

  65. nathan says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    Brilliant. I was too lazy to look up examples like that. Though you did not bother finding another forward.

    You’ve illustrated exactly why teams pay for results ABOVE replacement. Producing double the average is worth more far more than double. Producing half of average will give you negative worth if that carries across a broad range of skills.

  66. "Steve Smith" says:

    nathan,

    None of which is to say that Hemsky and Horcoff have been value contracts this year; neither has, obviously. My point is just that Traktor is blisteringly intellectually dishonest, and that water is wet. I’m all about taking on the sacred cows.

    As for finding another forward, my first thought was Lennart Petrell, but his $/P is actually somewhat worse than Crosby’s (though not as much worse as Crosby’s is than Potter’s).

  67. VOR says:

    Steve Smith, Woodguy, etc. I think the difference between the Irreverant Oilers Fan post and the Hockey Analysis post is that one looks at the population of all dmen and searches for a correlation the other attempts to prove that some players are persistent outliers. Thus, the average dman has no effect on SV% but Nick Lidstrom does seems to be the take home message.

    The problem is that the situation is far more complicated than we might assume. For fun you could go look at Nick Schultz’s most common teammates over the length of his career. You will find one of the oddest things imaginable. While one year he plays a lot with Brent Burns other years he plays with far more d partners than the typical NHL dman. This year before getting traded his most common team mate was only something like 25% of his ice time. I have no idea why but it isn’t a one off and it doesn’t seem to be related to injury.

    However, it does mean Schultz maybe more than anybody should have a ON SV% that looks like his team’s overall SV%. Yet he doesn’t. He also manages to maintain that odd effect on SV% regardless of # of shots against/60. Some guys clearly do well defensively because they cut down the shots against and some years Schultz does that but some years he seems to feel the more shots the better but he still out performs his team in terms of ON SV%. It is just weird.

    I think some of the underlying numbers we see with Schultz tell us who else the Oilers might be interested in. Marc Methot, Shane O’Brien, Mark Stuart etc. I’m not suggesting the Oilers are using any of the stats just that something the stats reflects agrees with what their eyes see.

  68. Woodguy says:

    LoDog,

    Here’s one:

    http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2011/3/16/2054552/shooting-percentage-suppression

    Looking for the others I remember.

    Don’t have them book marked so its a chore and I’m helping my wife make dinner and my 3 year old is on my shoulders.

  69. Lowetide says:

    I’ve always thought we were going to end up counting sorties, opposition pushes into defensive zones and their result. Kind of like Bill James range factor.

    Take Potter. 27-year old rookie (if that’s his age) has 120 sorties into his zone in the first 20 games and the outcome is a positive 110 times. He looks so good you’d like to have five more. THEN he gets hurt and over the next 480 sorties the outcome is a positive only 390 times.

    And then we compare that to our database of 3,100 rookie seasons by NHL defensemen measured the same way.

    I’ll be dead then, but it’ll tell us stuff.

  70. DSF says:

    Woodguy:
    LoDog,

    Here’s one:

    http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2011/3/16/2054552/shooting-percentage-suppression

    Looking for the others I remember.

    Don’t have them book marked so its a chore and I’m helping my wife make dinner and my 3 year old is on my shoulders.

    I hope you’re not deep frying.

  71. LoDog says:

    @ VOR, Steve Smith and Woodguy:

    Thanks for the links, looks like I have some reading to do. It just seems counter intuitive but I will keep an open mind as I look through the articles presented.

  72. DSF says:

    cabbiesmacker: No. It just means he blew a tire trying to support the burden ofDSF’s hopes, aspirations, and fanmail.

    The only remaining question regarding Kyle Wellwood is whether or not Sam Gagner can score a goal in the Oilers remaining games so they finish in a dead heat.

    Wellwood – 18G 29A 47P

    Gagner – 17G 29A 46P

    Eerie.

  73. Traktor says:

    Using Crosby as an example just highlights how much Wellwood is outperforming his contract. Wellwood probably has the best value contract in the leauge in terms of $/points. Its not a flawless metric, not unlike most of the statistics that are spouted off around here, but it gives some idea of who is performing and under-performing in relation to their cap hits.

    Potter has been been pretty good value this year in terms of the offense he brings. He took away Gilbert’s PP time despite not having much NHL experience.

    There is always going to be exceptions to the rule but I think the point stands that Wellwood is smart money and Horcoff and Hemsky have a long way to go.

  74. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: Thanks for that, hadn’t seen it before.

    Basically confirms what the others have shown.Extremely small amount of players affect ONSV% and when they do, the effect is almost negligible, so basically there is no effect.

    People will see an ONSV% of .850 and another of .950 and declare “.950 is much better defensively”, this is not true.Your link shows David pushing to show correlation, but even his results show the effect is almost not measurable.

    I don’t think the article showed that all.

    It showed there is a definitive effect, more than one can attribute to luck and for this particular population of players where we have large sample sizes, the effect varied from significantly good for Lidstrom to significantly bad for guys like JJ.

    If the shape of the bell curve is fairly consistent for the league as a whole, then there’s a decent number of players either way in each standard deviation. We could then apply context like qualcomp to the first table and we might be able to predict who would be doing even better or poorer under different circumstances.

    That was my first impression anyway.

    Scoring chances for and against is what does it for me at EVs, with context of course.. I’m leery to apply that to PKing though because it seems to me bad there could be an effect where PKers get scored on more frequently and thus have less time to give up chances. That would probably come out in the wash with enough PKTOI, but mid season I don’t like it. And then there’s the difference between facing 1st and 2nd PP units. Against elite scorers v. good scorers.

  75. spoiler says:

    Lowetide:
    I’ve always thought we were going to end up counting sorties, opposition pushes into defensive zones and their result. Kind of like Bill James range factor.

    Take Potter. 27-year old rookie (if that’s his age) has 120 sorties into his zone in the first 20 games and the outcome is a positive 110 times. He looks so good you’d like to have five more. THEN he gets hurt and over the next 480 sorties the outcome is a positive only 390 times.

    And then we compare that to our database of 3,100 rookie seasons by NHL defensemen measured the same way.

    I’ll be dead then, but it’ll tell us stuff.

    I like that metric.

  76. Traktor says:

    DSF: The only remaining question regarding Kyle Wellwood is whether or not Sam Gagner can score a goal in the Oilers remaining games so they finish in a dead heat.

    Wellwood – 18G 29A 47P

    Gagner – 17G 29A 46P

    Eerie.

    If Edmonton traded Gagner for a defensemen and then signed a Wellwood type to play Gagner’s role is Edmonton a worse team? On the surface that would seem like the smart thing to do.

  77. DSF says:

    Traktor,

    It’s been the smart thing to do since it became apparent Hopkins was ready to play in the NHL.

    Today I see some are in favour of acquiring Stoll to play third line centre while moving Horcoff and Belanger to the wing.

    How many under performing centres does one team really need?

    Unfortunately, Gagner’s trade value may have peaked at the trade deadline unless he can put up better numbers next year.

  78. LoDog says:

    Certainly we can’t just use ONSV% to declare someone good defensively (just like you shouldn’t use any one metric to prove anything) but when you add in all the context of a guy like Shultz it sure looks like he has a real affect.

  79. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: I don’t think the article showed that all.

    It showed there is a definitive effect, more than one can attribute to luck and for this particular population of players where we have large sample sizes, the effect varied from significantly good for Lidstrom to significantly bad for guys like JJ.

    If the shape of the bell curve is fairly consistent for the league as a whole, then there’s a decent number of players either way in each standard deviation. We could then apply context like qualcomp to the first table and we might be able to predict who would be doing even better or poorer under different circumstances.

    That was my first impression anyway.

    Scoring chances for and against is what does it for me at EVs, with context of course..I’m leery to apply that to PKing though because it seems to me bad there could be an effect where PKers get scored on more frequently and thus have less time to give up chances.That would probably come out in the wash with enough PKTOI, but mid season I don’t like it.And then there’s the difference between facing 1st and 2nd PP units. Against elite scorers v. good scorers.

    It did show an effect, but right end of the bell curve was 5 goals per year.

    If that’s the high end, the effect is inconsequential.

  80. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    I’ve always thought we were going to end up counting sorties, opposition pushes into defensive zones and their result. Kind of like Bill James range factor.

    Take Potter. 27-year old rookie (if that’s his age) has 120 sorties into his zone in the first 20 games and the outcome is a positive 110 times. He looks so good you’d like to have five more. THEN he gets hurt and over the next 480 sorties the outcome is a positive only 390 times.

    And then we compare that to our database of 3,100 rookie seasons by NHL defensemen measured the same way.

    I’ll be dead then, but it’ll tell us stuff.

    You’d have to imagine that someone/team is doing that for all 30 teams.

    I’ve been kicking around the cost of collecting all that data (want to collect AHL too, but meh, walk before running, plus that requires legs on the ground)

    Then grinding it into ebible bites and selling it to NHL teams along with interpretation services/lessons.

    I don’t have the time nor money to do that right now.

    Not sure who the competition is and what they are selling either.

    That’s pretty important as well.

    Only 30 customers in the world though, best to have it pre-sold before wandering down that path.

    Maybe.

    Perhaps an open source project that others have been kicking around in the blogosphere will do it.

    I’m with you though. I want to know touches, good passes given, poor passes given, good passes received, poor passes received, zone entry, etc, etc, etc.

    Probably best to poll your potential customers to find out what they want to see, but NHL are pretty closed door. Consulting (read:paying) ex-NHL execs for some direction will probably help.

    Just spitballing stuff.

  81. Lowetide says:

    Mike Smith is always open to new ideas. He seems a bit out there based on past articles written, choices of suits and his pro-Russia draft stance, but he’s probably a candidate.

  82. Woodguy says:

    Woodguy,

    The left end of the curve had Johnson and a couple others around 10.

    High, but the sample of players who put up such poor (or good) numbers still doesn’t have enough effect to consider it.

  83. Woodguy says:

    One of Tyler’s looks at ONSV%:

    http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=3003

  84. spoiler says:

    That is a very unhappy Neuvirth.

  85. gogliano says:

    I don’t have time to give a full account but I think VOR is absolutely right here. There are a lot of cross-cutting causes such that the presence of persistent outliers is pretty important. I’m sure it goes without saying that the effect is surely less than that of hockey lore but the fact these effects persist with all the randomness thrown in (and particularly the revolving teammates/d partners) is a tell that the effect is bigger than one will immediately see by the numbers; if some individual players do have an effect on the percentages but the majority don’t we should expect the effect of any one player to be muted by the effects of the median players playing with them. Sure, the net effect of having one player is on the lower end because of the effects the other players, but if we are talking about the underlying phenomenon we are trying to account for than there is a lot more there there. A complicating factor here is the extent to which a player’s ability to have an effect on the % might be affected by the ability of other players to play a system; so if you get the right players playing the right system, the combination will be greater than the sum of its parts. Does that happen? I don’t know, but the numbers suggest the possibility and I think ruling them out as too small too matter is a much too cramped view of what the numbers are saying.

  86. Captain Obvious says:

    For those of you who are interested in the debate concerning whether there is such a thing as shot quality I highly recommend you familiarize yourself with DIPS (Defense Independent Pitching Statistics) and the many, many, threads discussing the idea at Baseball Think Factory.

    The basic idea of DIPS is that pitchers don’t have an ability to influence the BABIP (batting average on ball in play) of batted balls and consequently you should evaluate pitchers solely on those things they can influence (walks allowed, strikeouts, and homeruns).

    The underlying logic and the statistical support for both theories is basically the same and consequently the criticisms/refinements of DIPS is applicable to hockey.

    The long and the short of it is that:

    1) the ability to prevent quality shots is certainly real. However …

    2) that ability in most cases will be swamped by the amount of other factors such that ….

    3) It takes a very large sample size to be able to conclude that a statistically observed result (player minimizing shot quality and hence having a high on ice save percentage) is representative of a real ability. Over the course of a single of seasons or even two or three it is impossible to know on a statistical basis whether the observed ability is real. Moreover ….

    3) NHL defensemen are already implicitly selected for the presence of this “ability” and hence the range of variation amongst real defensemen is likely to be quite small. Nonetheless …

    4) Even though NHL defensemen are already selected for the ability the ability is real and important. Six goals in a year is worth a win. A win attributable to a single “skill” is very important. Thus the strong statement of orthodoxy that players do not control ONSV% is misleading and misguided. Likewise Tom Seaver is a hall of fame pitcher instead of just a very good pitcher because of his ability to prevent hits on balls in play (as are Jim Palmer and Greg Maddux).

  87. Woodguy says:

    VOR,

    Here is Nick Shultz’s results for as long as Gabe has kept track:

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67&ds=1&f3=NICKSCHULTZ&f1=2011_s+2010_s+2009_s+2008_s+2007_s+2007_p

    This isn’t very scientific, but for fun here is his 5v5 ONSV% vs. the weighted average (via shots) of the team 5v5 SV%

    07/08 Nick .930 Team.922 net +0.08
    08/09 Nick .934 Team .926 net +0.08
    09/10 Nick .917 Team .916 net +0.01
    10/11 Nick .920 Team .924 net -0.04

    I didn’t do this year as the trade makes figuring it out tough.

    I also just assumed Nick played every game those years and didn’t try to pull out the results that happened without him playing in the game.

    Obviously the sample size isn’t nearly big enough to make any kind of conclusion, but it does move around.

  88. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Mike Smith is always open to new ideas. He seems a bit out there based on past articles written, choices of suits and his pro-Russia draft stance, but he’s probably a candidate.

    I’ve seen Gabe mention that he’s the biggest player in the market, but I haven’t talked to Gabe about this at all.

    More like something to do after a lottery win right now. Up to my neck in my business and family life right now. This type of project requires full time attention or more money than I’m willing to commit.

    Fun to think about though.

  89. Woodguy says:

    Captain Obvious,

    4) Even though NHL defensemen are already selected for the ability the ability is real and important. Six goals in a year is worth a win. A win attributable to a single “skill” is very important. Thus the strong statement of orthodoxy that players do not control ONSV% is misleading and misguided. Likewise Tom Seaver is a hall of fame pitcher instead of just a very good pitcher because of his ability to prevent hits on balls in play (as are Jim Palmer and Greg Maddux).

    Good stuff.

    This is true.

    My problem is how that information gets handled.

    If 5% of Dmen can have influence near 1 win that’s one thing.

    Taking that information blanketing the league saying a single player has a significant effect on his ONSV% is another.

    I wouldn’t say that “players have no influence on ONSV%” is orthodoxy, but its so close to reality, that it makes sense to dismiss it when discussing the majority of players. Especially comparing players from different teams.

    Also,

    I think one key to figuring out defensive ability lies in SA/60 vs. ExpSA/60.

    Gabe ran this for me the other day.

    I think I have the spread sheet sitting on my computer at work.

    All NHL players from the last 5 years or so, SA/60 and ExpSA/60 based on weighted average of all opponents and their SF/60. All 5v5 data.

    If you are interested I can email it to you.

  90. ashley says:

    It’s always been fascinating to me how different people can look at the same set of data and reach completely opposite conclusions. This strikes at one of the core problems of basic research in any field and underscores the importance of reviewing the source data or something very close to the source data before changing the way you think/do/practice your trade. Simply relying on the author’s analysis and conclusion is folly. Despite any researcher’s best efforts, there is much bias which is difficult to control for. Data can be selected, presented and framed to say just about anything an author wants, and that data analysis may tend toward the author’s preconceived notions, albeit usually inadvertently.

  91. whale says:

    WOW?

  92. spoiler says:

    If the swing from good to bad is somewhere between 10 and 16 goals then that strikes me as having real consequence. Having two guys at the bottom end, then even moreso. That said, I agree with point 3 in Capt Obvious’ post that the data required to isolate the true effect likely makes the assessment too difficult (and essentially backward-looking even if successful).

  93. Woodguy says:

    Stamkos has 46 5v5 goals.

    Ridiculous.

  94. DSF says:

    Woodguy:
    Stamkos has 46 5v5 goals.

    Ridiculous.

    On a team with poor depth, questionable defense and sub par goaltending.

    Hmmmm.

  95. icecastles says:

    Wow, Renney’s dislike for Linus must be MacT-like in its fervor. Scratched again.

  96. spoiler says:

    Nice of the refs to even that out for the Kings.

  97. Woodguy says:

    Woodguy: I’ve seen Gabe mention that he’s the biggest player in the market, but I haven’t talked to Gabe about this at all.

    More like something to do after a lottery win right now.Up to my neck in my business and family life right now.This type of project requires full time attention or more money than I’m willing to commit.

    Fun to think about though.

    When I say “he” is the biggest player, I’m refering to Smith, not Gabe.

  98. Lowetide says:

    Dubnyk backstopping well early again tonight.

  99. Lowetide says:

    icecastles:
    Wow, Renney’s dislike for Linus must be MacT-like in its fervor. Scratched again.

    Omark sleeps with the fishes, Oiler wise. He’s Luca Brasi.

  100. Woodguy says:

    Spirited affair so far.

    Tuebert thinks puck possesion is over rated.

    Watching Whitney trying to accelerate from standing still makes me sad. Hope he can get fixed.

  101. ASkoreyko says:

    Looks like Gagner got hurt on that last shift. EDIT: He is out there now. He was skating bent over to the bench on his last shift.

    This team is miles away from surviving anything close to a playoff series. We don’t have enough jerks on this team, no one finishes their checks just to finish them.

  102. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: Omark sleeps with the fishes, Oiler wise. He’s Luca Brasi.

    They call him up, so now he can’t play for OKC in the playofss (would get picked off waivers).

    Then they don’t play him.

    Are they making him fold towels with Joey?

  103. Lowetide says:

    It’s a spent team at this point. 18-year old kid at the end of a long, long year; Hall’s in Cleveland to see Dr Nick; Eberle’s creating and making anyone on the ice look good. Gagner hasn’t looked good in awhile.

    I do think Dubnyk is having a real nice run here and am trying very hard not to get overly excited about what that beautiful Finn is out there doing right now.

  104. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: They call him up, so now he can’t play for OKC in the playofss (would get picked off waivers).

    Then they don’t play him.

    Are they making him fold towels with Joey?

    I think they were going to give him the WHCs one way or another.

  105. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: They call him up, so now he can’t play for OKC in the playofss (would get picked off waivers).

    Then they don’t play him.

    Are they making him fold towels with Joey?

    Ah, hell. We make jokes about sideburns but this kid never had a chance.

    When I was a kid, my Dad took me to the SPCA to get a dog. I picked the littlest one, but Dad said no the dog would be no help at all (he was thinking watch dog, or at least something with size that would bark at intruders). So, he helped me pick another one and that was fine. We got to the car and my Mom made Dad go back and get my dog.

    Linus doesn’t have anyone in the car to help him. :-)

    PS, ended up being the yappiest dog in history, and you know who loved that dog the most?

    True story.

  106. rich says:

    The refs tonite are just brutal. How can you miss the guy slashing Horcov’s stick?

  107. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: I think they were going to give him the WHCs one way or another.

    Must have been the plan.

    Either that or Renney doesn’t give a shit what v4.0 thinks anymore.

  108. Lowetide says:

    At least three absolutely stunning calls there. Dubnyk trip, RNH high stick and Horcoff brken stick slash. I make it a point not to bitch about the refs, but good lord that’s some terrible reffing.

  109. Woodguy says:

    rich:
    The refs tonite are just brutal.How can you miss the guy slashing Horcov’s stick?

    Same way you miss Mitchell bonking 93 on the mellon with his stick.

  110. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: Ah, hell. We make jokes about sideburns but this kid never had a chance.

    When I was a kid, my Dad took me to the SPCA to get a dog. I picked the littlest one, but Dad said no the dog would be no help at all (he was thinking watch dog, or at least something with size that would bark at intruders). So, he helped me pick another one and that was fine.We got to the car and my Mom made Dad go back and get my dog.

    Linus doesn’t have anyone in the car to help him.

    PS, ended up being the yappiest dog in history, and you know who loved that dog the most?

    True story.

    Aren’t you now in the same position as your Dad, lol? My Dad loves dogs toi, but there’s no way he’d keep a farm dog like a shepherd or a collie in town. He wouldn’t be able to feel right about it. And a small dog he has.

    The very first Oil Change this season has Renney in front of a depth chart on the wall during training camp. Omark was the 13th Forward. Renney’s never had him much higher since that day. The orphan left behind.

    I don’t think he’ll kick out the jams elsewhere though, unless he gets some serious line help.

  111. skinny65 says:

    Just catching up on all the comments and saw DSF with this Wellwood-Gagner stuff again. While they have comparable stats this year, they aren’t comparable players going forward.
    Wellwood turns 29 in a month. He has hit his career high in points this season. In fact the last time he even hit 40 points in a season before was 2007.
    Gagner is 22 and though his point stats are flat I think any rational observer would say he has improved his all-round game every season. He has an upside that Wellwood just cant match and he’s already a more reliable player.
    Wellwood plays 15 min a night and chips in some points.
    Gagner is a much more integral player and not a single gm would take wellwood over him.
    Now if you are just talking contract okay. But there is a reason Wellwood is only making 700k this year. He hasn’t proven himself worth more. Until this year. So looking at both players as free agents next year (though gagner is an RFA, Wellwood a UFA), there is no doubt Gagner will get longer term and more cash.
    They may have the same points but going forward I just dont see it.

  112. whale says:

    Lowetide: Omark sleeps with the fishes, Oiler wise. He’s Luca Brasi.

    Why did the Oil call him and not play him? He was with the OKC and would have played in the playoffs – right? Now he’s not playing anywhere. What the hell was the point? Will they qualify him or just let him walk? I just don’t get it.

  113. bendelson says:

    Based on that wild stick from Mitchell, I fear RNH will be diagnosed with a concussion…
    sometime tomorrow.

  114. sliderule says:

    I don’t feel the love for Omark.He was Schremp two.
    He did nothing away from the puck.Flashy when he had the puck on the stick but the no defense and bad bad attitude couldn’t overcome it.
    To those who think he will make us pay I give a big yuk.He will be skating with Schremp next year.

  115. whale says:

    Woodguy: They call him up, so now he can’t play for OKC in the playofss (would get picked off waivers).

    Then they don’t play him.

    Are they making him fold towels with Joey?

    Sorry, didn’t see your post. But ya, what the Hell.

  116. Woodguy says:

    Traktor:
    Using Crosby as an example just highlights how much Wellwood is outperforming his contract. Wellwood probably has the best value contract in the leauge in terms of $/points. Its not a flawless metric, not unlike most of the statistics that are spouted off around here, but it gives some idea of who is performing and under-performing in relation to their cap hits.

    Potter has been been pretty good value this year in terms of the offense he brings. He took away Gilbert’s PP time despite not having much NHL experience.

    There is always going to be exceptions to the rule but I think the point stands that Wellwood is smart money and Horcoff and Hemsky have a long way to go.

    You may find this interesting then:

    http://blogs.thescore.com/nhl/2012/03/06/the-best-cost-per-point-players-in-the-nhl-brought-to-you-by-bang4yourpuck-com/

    I like how Bourne breaks it down into 3 categories. Make sense.

  117. Woodguy says:

    whale: Why did the Oil call him and not play him? He was with the OKC and would have played in the playoffs – right? Now he’s not playing anywhere. What the hell was the point? Will they qualify him or just let him walk? I just don’t get it.

    Qualify him and trade his rights is probably the best guess.

  118. Lowetide says:

    spoiler: Aren’t you now in the same position as your Dad, lol?My Dad loves dogs toi, but there’s no way he’d keep a farm dog like a shepherd or a collie in town.He wouldn’t be able to feel right about it. And a small dog he has.

    The very first Oil Change this season has Renney in front of a depth chart on the wall during training camp.Omark was the 13th Forward. Renney’s never had him much higher since that day. The orphan left behind.

    I don’t think he’ll kick out the jams elsewhere though, unless he gets some serious line help.

    Yeah, same thing for me now although as with your Dad I couldn’t see keeping a big dog with such a small space to roam. So, we have a kleenex box. She’s been part of our family for 4 months now and already runs the joint. I’m constantly picking up things and tripping over her, but she’s a keeper.

    As for Omark, I think he’ll have another shot. He wants it–has said so many times–and a team interested won’t have to pay much. What he does with that second chance is anyone’s guess, and as you say he’ll need a push.

  119. LoDog says:

    Lowetide: Ah, hell. We make jokes about sideburns but this kid never had a chance.

    When I was a kid, my Dad took me to the SPCA to get a dog. I picked the littlest one, but Dad said no the dog would be no help at all (he was thinking watch dog, or at least something with size that would bark at intruders). So, he helped me pick another one and that was fine.We got to the car and my Mom made Dad go back and get my dog.

    Linus doesn’t have anyone in the car to help him.

    PS, ended up being the yappiest dog in history, and you know who loved that dog the most?

    True story.

    But that pretty much sums up the Omark supporters. Like the cute razzle dazzle over something that actually accomplishes something. Now, on a team that already had a stable of guard dogs, he might be somewhat useful but the Oilers are not that team.

    And now to actually watch the game.

  120. Woodguy says:

    spoiler,

    I think the org thought he’d fill Hemsky’s role if the traded him.

    His broken leg/ankle at the exact wrong time and Hemsky re-signing pretty much wrote it.

  121. cabbiesmacker says:

    I would be most pleased if Kevin Quinn would refer to Shawn Horcoff as “The Contract” rather than The Captain.

  122. spoiler says:

    Woodguy:
    spoiler,

    I think the org thought he’d fill Hemsky’s role if the traded him.

    His broken leg/ankle at the exact wrong time and Hemsky re-signing pretty much wrote it.

    Yeah, that’s a fair observation.

    Spector just traded him.

  123. Lowetide says:

    LoDog: But that pretty much sums up the Omark supporters. Like the cute razzle dazzle over something that actually accomplishes something. Now, on a team that already had a stable of guard dogs, he might be somewhat useful but the Oilers are not that team.

    And now to actually watch the game.

    I think he’s completely different than Schremp. Better foot speed, can win battles. Omark’s well beyond Schremp. Not to say he doesn’t have issues, but they buried him pure and simple.

    Sideburns.

  124. DSF says:

    skinny65:
    Just catching up on all the comments and saw DSF with this Wellwood-Gagner stuff again.While they have comparable stats this year, they aren’t comparable players going forward.
    Wellwoodturns 29 in a month.He has hit his career high in points this season.In fact the last time he even hit 40 points in a season before was 2007.
    Gagner is 22 and though his point stats are flat I think any rational observer would say he has improved his all-round game every season.He has an upside that Wellwood just cant match and he’s already a more reliable player.
    Wellwood plays 15 min a night and chips in some points.
    Gagner is a much more integral player and not a single gm would take wellwood over him.
    Now if you are just talking contract okay.But there is a reason Wellwood is only making 700k this year.He hasn’t proven himself worth more.Until this year.So looking at both players as free agents next year (though gagner is an RFA, Wellwood a UFA), there is no doubt Gagner will get longer term and more cash.
    They may have the same points but going forward I just dont see it.

    Upside shmupside.

    I’m from Missouri.

    Gagner can be easily replaced by any number of cheap third line players.

    See Brodziak, Kyle (among many), for reference.

    Until Gagner proves otherwise, he IS Kyle Wellwood.

    Same skill set…same results.

  125. "Steve Smith" says:

    Traktor:
    Using Crosby as an example just highlights how much Wellwood is outperforming his contract.

    No it doesn’t: it highlights how little sense your argument makes.

  126. rich says:

    Gene w/a great comment there on Omark, “why not play him and raise his trade stock”. Obviously, he’s made one too many comments on Renney’s coaching acumen and he’s been permanently benched.

    I can see Omark not waiting to be traded but parlaying an offer from the KHL or SEL and telling the Oilers to stuff it this summer.

    Not saying here that Omark was a difference maker – he lacks attention to the defensive side of the game. But this just feels like management is trying to spite him because he speaks a little to plainly.

  127. spoiler says:

    Someone promised the refs they’d meet a real live movie star after the game.

  128. icecastles says:

    Lowetide: Linus doesn’t have anyone in the car to help him.

    Your analogies are always good, but this is one of the best I’ve ever read from you. Absolutely spot on. And so damn sweet. :)

    Of course, Omark will now forever be a tiny yappy puppy in my mind… wonder if that’ show Rennet describes him in private?

  129. spoiler says:

    Two movie stars! If you’re lucky one will really be a female!

  130. bookje says:

    DSF: Upside shmupside.

    I’m from Missouri.

    That explains a lot.

  131. Woodguy says:

    You all have it wrong.

    The refs are trying to help the Oilers.

    The only time LA isn’t dominating the shot clock is when its 5v4.

    i

  132. bookje says:

    Lowetide: I think he’s completely different than Schremp. Better foot speed, can win battles. Omark’s well beyond Schremp. Not to say he doesn’t have issues, but they buried him pure and simple.

    Sideburns.

    Omark has very similar numbers to Ray Whitney when the Oilers dumped him. He is also pretty close to Miro Satan. I believe Whitney was 24 and Satan was 25.

    What would a 10 game stint with first or second line player have cost the Oilers this year – 28th place?

  133. Backhand says:

    RE: GAGNER

    What we know we have out of him is a 45 point player. Point production probably isn’t the biggest concern. People’s problem with Gagner is a lack of secondary skills (imo). Can’t win faceoffs (though there is an improvement), average foot speed, not a great defensive centre, etc…

    I think a 45 point centre who brings secondary skills would please the fan base. That is why the constant pressure for Gagner to put up more points than he does as he doesnt have those secondary skills. He was drafted as an offensive player and that expectation still exists. He has done nothing to change that expectation (i.e. show positive skills in other areas).

    I’d like to here other peoples opinions on what else Gagner brings to the game?

  134. pboy says:

    Pretty interesting conversation between Gregor and Spector during the 5 o’clock hour of Gregor’s show. Spector got very, very defensive over Gregor criticizing the Oilers poor Pro Scouting and UFA acquisitions. Gregor was talking about how incompetent the Oilers looked over the Magnus call up and how they can’t afford the bad optics considering that they have the 2nd longest playoff drought in the league and that they are the worst team in the league during this last CBA. Usually the MSM in town are real vanilla but I found this to be pretty compelling. Spector’s an interesting guy, he’ll throw players under the bus quickly (Eager, Gilbert and Penner come to mind) but he’s really reticent to say a bad word about Tamblowe.

  135. skinny65 says:

    DSF
    You’ve picked the guy that is most outperforming his contract the most this season in Wellwood. Seems like you are picking cherries.
    And if the Oilers could get Brodziak (yes, they have terrible management!!) it would be a coup. Brodziak is signed for the next 3 years at 2.8 million, so it’s not exactly apples to apples.
    If these players are so common find 3 other ’3rd line’ players producing at that level. I’ll be happy to eat my words then but these are peculiar circumstances you have chosen and Wellwood is an anomaly.
    My point is that while there may be players like that, they aren’t available. Or…. the players that are available, aren’t as valuable. And that’s the reality the Oilers find themselves in. Players outperforming contracts to that extent just dont recur.
    It’s a fluke and you are pretending it’s normal and that it therefore shows how useless gagner is.
    It’s total sophistry and you keep spewing it.

  136. icecastles says:

    bookje: What would a 10 game stint with first or second line player have cost the Oilers this year – 28th place?

    One of the most baffling things about these tank/rebuild years has been management’s failure to use them to properly assess/develop their players in the big club. The failure to give DD more games last year, Omark’s lack of opportunity to prove either his fans or detractors right…

    Either he’s got promise and they need to develop him by playing him, or he’s awful and he can help the tank by playing. Either way, leaving him in the PB accomplishes nothing. No trade value, no development, nothing.

  137. regwald says:

    From Elliot Friedman’s 30 list:

    7. The best advice for the Canadiens? Wait. This is going to be an interesting spring. Tim Wharnsby pointed out there’s been only one GM firing in the last 16 months. Will it stay that quiet? Several executives think there are going to be surprises, guys available we wouldn’t expect.

    Can we hope there’s more GM change coming our way ? Nahhh … not likely. Oh well, wishful thinking.

  138. fuzzy muppet says:

    The Hemsky I don’t like has been back for a few weeks.

    Weak on the puck. Lazy penalties. Lack of interest.

    I’m still not convinced his resigning is a good thing….:/

  139. Lowetide says:

    Dubnyk playing well again tonight.

  140. gogliano says:

    skinny65,
    “DSF…Seems like you are picking cherries.”

    You must be new here?

  141. regwald says:

    More from Friedman on our friends down south.

    A few other execs believe that if Jay Feaster had his way, he’d already have begun an aggressive rebuild of the Flames — but hasn’t had support of upper management/ownership. (Feaster denied that when I asked, and, as Oilers fans know, he’s denied it quite famously in public.) You have to believe, after the incredible disappointment of the last two weeks, things are going to change now.

  142. skinny65 says:

    Gogliano
    hahah, yeah pretty much.

  143. whale says:

    We need to lose this in regulation. I think second pick this year is way more valuable than third. After this (hopefully) we won’t care where we pick.

  144. LMHF#1 says:

    Ryan Jones standing around looking like he’s forgotten what sport he’s playing as his check scores a goal. Come on man…

  145. Woodguy says:

    Voynov has a lot of Vis in his game.

    Especially the way he skates the puck out from behind his own net.

    Barbara Anne Voynov

  146. fuzzy muppet says:

    Jones didn’t look away from the puck that entire sequence.

  147. gd says:

    icecastles: One of the most baffling things about these tank/rebuild years has been management’s failure to use them to properly assess/develop their players in the big club. The failure to give DD more games last year, Omark’s lack of opportunity to prove either his fans or detractors right…

    Either he’s got promise and they need to develop him by playing him, or he’s awful and he can help the tank by playing. Either way, leaving him in the PB accomplishes nothing. No trade value, no development, nothing.

    That is the most perplexing part of this org to me. I know things in hockey don’t go to plan, and you can’t just start tanking in October, but it seems like the last two years should have been one big “science experiment” and yet we still don’t know much about Harsky, Omark and we might be just figuring out Dubnyk now.

    I believe lost in the shuffle of the Paarjarvi fiasco, is what do they want to do with him. If they want to try him out with RNH and Eberle, why wasn’t that done a month ago and if they want him to get his confidence in the AHL, great leave him there but why call him up with 5 games to go.

  148. Woodguy says:

    LMHF#1:
    Ryan Jones standing around looking like he’s forgotten what sport he’s playing as his check scores a goal. Come on man…

    Standard.

  149. delooper says:

    The thing the LA Kings do, where the defencemen pass the puck up to the forwards, and where the forwards are in a position to take a non-suicide pass. That thing. If the Oilers could do that, they’d be doing better in this game.

  150. spoiler says:

    This rink is death to powerplays.

  151. rich says:

    That was a terribly unfortunate penalty – had to take it right in from of the ref – gave him no choice but to call it.

  152. LMHF#1 says:

    Woodguy: Standard.

    I KNOW! Let’s put him on the powerplay where he can make up for it?

    VOMITVOMITVOMIT.

  153. Lowetide says:

    Now ryan jones gets PP time. Okay.

  154. VOR says:

    Backhand,

    Gagner plays 2 C competition with 2 C linemates and is nearly zero for Corsi on, big plus for Corsi relative, and has a very good +/- /60 and a great differential between his +/-/60 On versus Off, amongst the best in the NHL. As his face offs are improving he is becoming a complete 2 C. Replacing him, contrary to opinions stated here, is nigh on impossible in free agency this year. Brodziak signed, Hudler ain’t moving, and Wellwood had a career year. We could pay for 33 year old Olli Jokinen I guess.

  155. LMHF#1 says:

    Lowetide:
    Now ryan jones gets PP time. Okay.

    I think we could explain the coach’s actions this year if we decided that he does not believe in watching hockey games.

  156. spoiler says:

    Good shift by Teubert. Playing that game will go a long way.

  157. cabbiesmacker says:

    Nice slapshot Samantha.

    What an incredibly mediocre hockey player. You fit right in.

  158. spoiler says:

    Whitney with 26:14.
    Schultz with 22:18.
    Difference being the double minor, mostly.

    Oil have seriously missed Hall’s 7 shots a game.

    Hartikainen with 0 shots. I liked him tonight though.

    Dubnyk with another great effort–.945.

  159. Brett Gee says:

    Thank the Lord that there are only 2 games left because this group of players has nothing right now. Sounds familiar.

  160. Lowetide says:

    There’s 2 games left and then a long list of possibilities. I’ll guess the GM & coach stay, Smith and Bucky come back and they add a coach for Krueger. Maybe Nelson?

    After that, they draft Ryan Murray, trade for Dion Phaneuf and sign Edward Scissorhands for RW.

  161. cabbiesmacker says:

    VOR,

    Just trade him then? Part of a package deal maybe.

    KId has 46 points in 72 games with an 8 spot in the mix. Thats a definite plateau or even slight regression on the previous 3. Worse points per 60 mins of 5 x 4 than Belanger.

    Want to play him on the third line then sure but he’s going to be earning upwards of $3.5M per soon and we already have our 3C in Horcoff.

    Actually $9M per year paid out for 3C capables is kind of hilarious.

  162. cabbiesmacker says:

    Lowetide:

    After that, they sign Edward Scissorhands for RW.

    He’ll fit right in with 10 other Hamhands at F.

  163. Brett Gee says:

    Rob Brown says that Omark is not capable of playing in the top 6. How he knows this is anyone’s guess.

  164. "Steve Smith" says:

    Brett Gee,

    And, since it is an established fact that NHL teams only dress six forwards per game, this is fatal to Omark’s chances.

  165. Traktor says:

    skinny65:
    DSF
    You’ve picked the guy that is most outperforming his contract the most this season in Wellwood.Seems like you are picking cherries.

    Funny thing is smart people were comparing Gagner to Wellwood BEFORE the season even started.

  166. oilersfan says:

    Not sire if it was mentioned here but Marincin was assigned to OKC today. Should be interesting to see how he performs. With Chorney out for a month, Teubert and Rodney here he may just play 20 minutes in his first game.

    Too bad Davidson is injured it would have been interesting to see how he fared.

  167. Schitzo says:

    Lowetide:

    Linus doesn’t have anyone in the car to help him.

    So when did you get the french-canadian dog with mono and a pubic issue?

  168. asiaoil says:

    LT – losing krueger while retaining the other coaches is a disaster as he’s the only guy with a clue. Only thing worse is keeping lowe and sock puppet. Batman has all the cash and wastes it on 4th rate talent in the exec suite and behind the bench – wasn’t supposed to work this way was it?

  169. art vandelay says:

    And then we compare that to our database of 3,100 rookie seasons by NHL defensemen measured the same way.

    I’ll be dead then, but it’ll tell us stuff.

    It’ll tell us that the Oilers defence is horrible.

  170. ASkoreyko says:

    art vandelay:
    And then we compare that to our database of 3,100 rookie seasons by NHL defensemen measured the same way.


    I’ll be dead then, but it’ll tell us stuff.

    It’ll tell us that the Oilers defence is horrible.

    Thanks for coming out! It was great to see you!

  171. russ99 says:

    Renney has to go for this team to move forward.

    28th place and a chance to play spoiler and he sits Omark, runs a hardcore defense only gameplan and has the goons goon it up. Instead of lifting the shackles and letting the team play loose against a team fighting for a division crown with all the pressure.

    I can only think that in his delusional mind we’re trying to hold on to the 8 seed.

  172. bookje says:

    Not sure if anyone saw this quote by hartikainen but I thought it showed a good sense of humour.

    “I was thinking about that. We’re in California, and I have so many fans here.” — Oilers LW Teemu Hartikainen, on hearing chants of “Teemu, Teemu” in Anaheim

  173. Ducey says:

    The draft lottery is on April 10th. Anyone else think its strange that the Oilers might have Tamby sitting uncomfortably on TSN without a contract?

    MTL will have a cardboard cutout of Patrick Roy and Howson might be gassed by then, but it seems you have to pull the trigger on fire/ rehire by April 10. Doesn’t it?

  174. uni says:

    russ99,

    Never mind that the man who’s overseen team for the last 4 years to their worst standings ever and shuffled through 3 coaches is still in charge.

    The problem starts at the top. Hire a good GM and everything else will fall into place.

  175. spoiler says:

    Ducey:
    The draft lottery is on April 10th. Anyone else think its strange that the Oilers might have Tamby sitting uncomfortably on TSN without a contract?

    MTL will have a cardboard cutout of Patrick Roy and Howson might be gassed by then, but it seems you have to pull the trigger on fire/ rehire by April 10. Doesn’t it?

    As you note, a cardboard cutout could do the work at the draft lottery, so I’d say no, the trigger doesn’t have to be pulled by that date.

    IIRC though, there’s usually a big prospects meeting in May between scouts and mgmt. That would be a different story.

  176. prairieschooner says:

    Omark sleeps with the fishes, Oiler wise. He’s Luca Brasi.

    Change to Omark skates with the fishes

    Did anyone else notice I think Eberle standing in front of the net ready to defend the breakout when one of the Kings wheel up behind him and slashes his stick out of his hand
    For some reason the Ostriches missed it

  177. rickithebear says:

    With the move to limited PP opportunities, EvPP becomes much more critical.
    to achieve:
    top 30 for EVPP 45P
    top 60 40P
    top 90 35P

    Our forwards from history and current.
    Eberle #4F 55PT
    Hall #50F 42PT
    Hemsky #60F 40PT
    RNH #60F 40PT
    Smyth #70F 38PT
    Gagner #90F 35PT
    Hartikainen #90 35PT
    Omark #130 29PT
    ————————————- Top 180 24pt cut off/ No better than 4th line
    Horcoff 23-24PT
    Belanger 23-24PT
    Jones 21-22PT
    Eager 20PT

    Jarrett Stoll 22pt
    Cogliano 29PT
    Brodziak 31PT

  178. bendelson says:

    prairieschooner,

    Clearly the refs had a bad game last night (again).
    The one that still bothers me this morning is the Teubert penalty. You know the textbook poke check? Obviously NOT a penalty.

    Yet the real problem with the call is, as the replay clearly shows, the close ref had a perfect view of it at close range and did not make the call. He saw it and knew it wasn’t a penalty… And yet it stood.

    They would rather be wrong than talk to one another and make the correct call.
    I just don’t see why there isn’t a face off at centre due to the obvious wrong call.

    Way to much to ask for I know.

  179. prairieschooner says:

    The speed of the game probably precludes conversations between officials that might overturn decisions.
    It certainly appears to be a curious phenomenon that there are less and less penalties being called.

  180. delooper says:

    I imagine there’s a bit of an interpersonal dynamic there. One ref makes a mistake, and the other ref doesn’t want to overrule them, since it makes them look bad. Better to go with the mistake and pretend it wasn’t, for the image you portray to everyone around you. If you start overruling each other, players and coaches will start whining more and think they can whine their way to the result they want.

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