JEFF PETRY 11-12: OLD MAN

Jeff Petry is a fairly rare item: an defenseman procured via the draft by the Oilers who actually worked out and became a useful NHL player. That’s how he’s trending, and it is a rare thing.

Jeff Petry 10-11

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.21 (8th among Oil D)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 1.67 (5th among Oil D)
  • Qual Comp: 5th toughest among D
  • Qual Team: 7th best available among D
  • Corsi Rel: 2.0 (tied for 4th best among D)
  • Zone Start: 49.1% (3rd toughest among D)
  • Zone Finish: 50.5% (5th best among D)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 41 shots/1 goal 2.4% (7th among Oil D)
  • Boxcars: 35gp, 1-4-5
  • Plus Minus: -12 on a team that was -52

Jeff Petry 11-12

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.91 (1st among Oil D)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 3.25 (3rd among Oil D)
  • Qual Comp: 2nd toughest among D
  • Qual Team: best available among D
  • Corsi Rel: 2.0 (tied for 4th best among D)
  • Zone Start: 49.1% (5th toughest among D)
  • Zone Finish: 51.3% (2nd best among D)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 111 shots/1.8% (6th among Oil D)
  • Boxcars: 73gp, 2-23-25
  • Plus Minus: -7 on a team that was -26
  1. What do these numbers tell us? Solid numbers across the board, good offense and CorsiRel and his ZS/finish is very good. This is a fine young defenseman and he took on more responsibility as time wore on. I’m completely certain they traded Tom Gilbert too soon (they shouldn’t have traded him at all based on what we know), but Petry is a solid young defenseman and we shouldn’t allow one item to cloud the other.
  2. What do the numbers tell us? He’s one of the two best defenders on the team based on the current roster and including injuries. He and Smid are the gold standard of the group, and that’s some good territory for a man who is just past 100 NHL games.
  3. He isn’t physical. He doesn’t take a lot of penalties, but he uses his size well and can be effective in front of the net and along the wall. It may never be his calling card, but he’s not Tom Poti either.
  4. Could he slide backwards? Hell yes, defensemen often have off years after good ones due to injury, being paired with idiots and also rans and bad goaling.
  5. Do you like him? Hell yes, he looks good in all kinds of areas. Mobile, smart, can defend, close gaps and is physical enough to manage the heavy moments. A nice, nice player. He played a lot at evens and on the PK and was productive when he got PP minutes. He led the team in even toi/game (after Gilbert was traded).
  6. What’s the best thing about him? He beat the “coaching by contract” system the Oilers often use to make their roster decisions. He forced them to risk waivers on a player because he won the day, something Edmonton has been hesitant to do forever. That’s a huge deal in Edmonton.
  7. How many did he pass? It was a lot, he was Secretariat this season. Last August, I estimated that the top 5 to be Whitney, Gilbert, Smid, Barker and Peckham. Sutton would have been ahead of him too, and Petry would have been equal to Corey Potter but they couldn’t risk waivers on Potter either.
  8. How many did he pass? Potter, Sutton, Peckham, Barker and they traded Gilbert. A strong season for the college kid.
  9. Where does he rank now? I’d say clearly top 4: Whitney (when healthy), Smid, Schultz, Petry might be the top 4D, with Potter, Sutton, Peckham, Teubert, Plante, Chorney in the mix.
  10. Will they add this summer? I think so, but they’re likely to send some of these young hires away too.
  11. Who will they add this summer? I’ve written a few items over at ON about possible additions and the club could still add a defender at the draft. My guess is they’ll count on Whitney but also add, and the kid Justin Schultz is interesting.
  12. Do you think they’ll get him? It would be great but I don’t think we should count on it. All kinds of offers will be coming from the other 30 teams and the player may want to play for a specific team for all kinds of reasons.
  13. What is Petry’s outer marker for points? I’ll say 40. He scored 19 points at evens and 6 in limited time on the PP. His EV total ranked among the NHL’s top 50 this past season and he should be able to increase his 5×4 time as things roll along. Now, that’s his outer marker, it doesn’t mean I expect him to deliver that next season.
  14. Do the Oilers have trouble drafting NHL capable defensemen? They have in the past had a tough time, although the most recent drafts suggest that will change. In the 10 seasons prior to Petry’s draft year (2006), the best Dmen drafted were Alex Henry (1998), Alexei Semenov (1999), Matt Greene (2002). How many of those guys are having or have had careers that Jeff Petry can’t hope to exceed?
  15. Can the Edmonton Oilers win a Stanley Cup with Jeff Petry as a prime contributor? Yes. Petry has a nice range of skills and they brought him along slowly, so the lessons learned should be in the vault. We should always remember injury can derail these men–I think Peckham had something go haywire this past season–but based on his first 100 games Jeff Petry has the look of a guy who is going to be in the NHL for a long time.
  16. When the Oilers are good at defense, where will they slot him? I think he’ll still be top 4 because of his range of skills. A player like Smid may play less when the studs begin gobbling up minutes, but Petry can play in every discipline.
  17. When do they have to start paying him? Any day now.
  18. Will they sign him long term? Seems reasonable.

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67 Responses to "JEFF PETRY 11-12: OLD MAN"

  1. bookje says:

    The Oilers are going to win the Stanley Cup. Awesome! That’s all I needed to hear!

  2. ItsTheBGB says:

    Even with all the kids on the ice, watching Jeff Petry play hockey is a joy. I love that guy. I think he can become a #2 Dman in time too.

    Also: it would be nice to land Schultz but I’m not getting my hopes up.

  3. Brett Gee says:

    what a flawless performance. great song.

  4. gd says:

    LT,

    With all the draft research we Oiler fans have had to do in the last few years, we’ve learned that most D are made not born. My impression is that Oiler D development has significantly improved since Steve Smith was hired in 2010. You’ve got to think no one can better relate to the pressures of playing here and persevering through mistakes than him.

    Petry and Smid’s development (and even to.a degree Potter) give me some hope that this franchise has a D development plan in place. I’ve got hope that between Klefbom, Maracin, Genat, Teubert, Musil and Plante we have at least two legit top 4 dmen for a playoff calibre team as long as they are patient and develop them properly.

  5. jfry says:

    gd,

    what about huddy? seems like everyone around these parts thought he was the real deal with the d before smith came along

  6. Dipstick says:

    “Could he slide backwards? Hell yes, defensemen often have off years after good ones due to injury, being paired with idiots and also rans and bad goaling.”

    Do you have any particular idiots, also rans and bad goalers in mind? Don’t hold back!

  7. gd says:

    jfry:
    gd,

    what about huddy? seems like everyone around these parts thought he was the real deal with the d before smith came along

    You might be right about Huddy. This is one area where I have to defer to hockey experts on who is good at developing and teaching Dmen and who isn’t. All I know is D seems like the most important area where development dollars should be spent and I hope the Oilers are spending those dollars well.

  8. slopitch says:

    Goaltending is just as important. Sean Burke has been doing a splendid job developing goslies in Pho.

  9. spoiler says:

    From the April Redline Report:

    But even among the acknowledged strength of this draft, while there is very good depth, there is very little marquee, star quality to the top guys. In fact, we don’t see a true No. 1 blue-liner emerging out of this year’s crop. While a kid like Ryan Murray might have great value as a smooth-skating, savvy shutdown defender who can move the puck and will be a captain in the league for 10 years, his style of play is more along the lines of a Kevin Lowe or a Glen Wesley rather than a Paul Coffey.

    In fact, we think this creates a dilemma for the Edmonton Oilers,who might be the first team to be disappointed by winning the lottery. The Oilers are stacked up front on the forward lines and desperately need a puck mover on the back end to trigger what should quickly become an explosive offense. They could have happily selected a Murray or a Matt Dumba second overall after Nail Yakupov came off the board. But now, how do you sell to your fan base using the first pick to take a player with significantly less upside than Yakupov?

    In general, for teams looking to bolster their blue line brigade, they might be able to find the same caliber of player down around picks No. 16 or 17 that they could find picking up at No. 5. And the real wild card here is Morgan Rielly, who hasn’t put a blade on the ice since early November.

    It’s entirely possible that Rielly might have the most potential offensive star power in the bunch. In fact, that is our opinion at Red Line—but if you’re a head scout or GM selecting in the top half dozen picks, do you have the courage to pull the trigger on that one? Tough call.

    That’s a long excerpt, so let me say thanks to USA Today and Kyle Woodlief for the article. Please click the link and read the entire article and their latest top 10, which does not include a defenseman or a Grigorenko in its top 3.

  10. Jesse says:

    slopitch,

    I was wondering if you could elaborate? Aside from Mike Smith I wasn’t aware of who he had a big influence on. I am, however, a huge Sean Burke fan so I’m interested to know….?

  11. TheOtherJohn says:

    Petry is a good 2nd pairing D man. He is the offense on the 2nd pairing and Smid is the stay at home guy on a good “silver” pairing. If they are the best you have, which is where we are right now, you will be playing golf at the end of April. Course it beats being out of the playoffs by January 15th which is where we have been the last 3 years

    Like Petry, like his game and believe he would be a very nice piece on a WCF/SCF team. Resign him and Smid to 3 to 4 year contracts

    Problem is we need 2 D in front of him, a superior goaltender and a large two way 2C centre to really compete. Fortunately one of our strengths is identifying and filling in gaping holes in our lineup. Wait a minute……….

    Spoiler thanks for the reference to RLR, always great read this time of year and usually contains a different draft perspective. Just looked at list and Forsberg is almost a full year younger than Yakupov. Think ??? might have been Kirk Luedecke??? with nationradio that said he was a real physical force. Did not realise he was so young must have been one of younger players at WJC. He could be a decent pick if you could trade down and still get a good 2-3-4 D man by trading Yakupov

    GD

    If Steve Smith was doing such a good job developing D what the freak happened with Peckham, Barker and anyone called up from OKC not named Petry

  12. Jesse says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    Defensemen don’t always develop in a straight line. Besides, Peckham had injury issues this year and it’s common (as LT mentioned) for defenseman to have one up year and one down year when they’re as young as Teddy is. As for Barker, he was bought out of his last contract which is a huge sign that there’s not a lot to work on there. As for the rest of the young D men from OKC, I don’t think they’re doing too badly. Teubert is hella young and looked like all call up Defensemen look in their first kick at the major league cat. Plante has foot speed issues but was named to the AHL all-star team.

    I’m going on and on here but Defensemen are f-ing hard to draft and develop and there seems to be more evidence that Steve Smith is doing a decent job than a poor one. That’s the way it is with prospects: some work out, some don’t.

  13. regwald says:

    If you want to talk about coaching helping a dman, you have to look no further than Petry. He attributed some of his improvements in his game to sitting in the video room with Steve Smith and reviewing his play. He said it helped immensely.

    I would say it is a combination – a coachable player wanting to learn and improve who is willing to put in the hours in the video room to see ways to improve his game.

    I think as part of the post-season interview Petry even said he isn’t a big fan of sitting in the video room for hours on end, but did it to help himself improve.

  14. godot10 says:

    Huddy discarded Pitkanen after one season, and was turning Smid into a left wing. Yes. Let’s bring him back.

    Huddy was okay with retreads. He has never developed anybody. Dallas had to go out and get Souray and Goglioski, after the development stalled under Huddy post-Tippett in Dallas.

    The Oilers are in teaching mode with D. Although I am down on Renney, he and Smith have rehabilitated Smid, and have Petry on a fast track.

  15. godot10 says:

    godot10:
    Huddy discarded Pitkanen after one season, and was turning Smid into a left wing. Yes.Let’s bring him back.

    Huddy was okay with retreads.He has never developed anybody.Dallas had to go out and get Souray and Goglioski, after the development stalled under Huddy post-Tippett in Dallas.

    The Oilers are in teaching mode with D. Although I am down on Renney, he and Smith have rehabilitated Smid, and have Petry on a fast track.

    Huddy also completely missed Hejda, choosing to leave him in the pressbox for most of the season he was with the Oilers.

  16. godot10 says:

    Greene progressed so slowly under Huddy, that the Oilers ended up trading him. The same thing which almost happened to Smid…Huddy had given up on him and he was traded to Heatley.

    Greene, miss. Smid, miss. Hejda, miss, Pitkanen, miss.

    Huddy’s track record is far from perfect.

  17. stevezie says:

    Did a great job with Grebs though. His first season he was the worst regular NHLer I have ever seen. Then he turned pretty good, and slipped after Huddy left.

  18. spoiler says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Spoiler thanks for the reference to RLR,always great read this time of year and usually contains a different draft perspective. Just looked at list andForsberg is almost a full year younger than Yakupov. Think ???might have been Kirk Luedecke???with nationradio that said he was a real physical force. Did not realise he was so young must have been one of younger players at WJC. He could be a decent pick if you could trade down and still get agood 2-3-4 D man by trading Yakupov

    There were a couple of surprises there for me.

    One is that the top Dmen with the possible exception of Rielly don’t look as good pre-draft as they have in past years. RLR doesn’t appear to think that Dumba or Murray are impact players, and that the second tier–Reinhart, Trouba, Ceci etc–may be as good. And Red Line seems to consider Murray and Dumba about equal in abilty.

    Another is the rise of Forsberg and Tervainen. Especially Tervainen who has shot up the rankings the past 6 months. But I’m always leery of big risers (and fallers). Seems like momentum gets them misplaced. An example of a faller taken too low would be Saad. Forsberg is very intersting, although he didn’t have a great WJC (Collberg seemed better and is an Aug bday)

    I think I’d be talking to Buff or Wash about their two 1st rounders, or CBJ about their 2013 1st, or any one of the top 10 teams about a player and a pick.

  19. spoiler says:

    In fact, I’d see if the 1st could pry Myers out of Buffalo. I doubt they’d go for it, but you never know.

  20. TheOtherJohn says:

    FFS

    Our defense is at the bottom of the league and we are talking about how well our D is developing? Smid took 5 years. Petry is Smid’s age and is rounding into shape quite nicely and our defense is developing.?? I repeat outside of Smid, Petry, Sutton and Schultz, our D is pushing a giant boulder up a steep hill.

    Tuebert is really young?Here is a list of 08 draft picks taken after him with 4 times as many games in show: Karlsson (Oops) Sbisa, Del Zotto,, Carlson, Hamonic and Spurgeon. If we go with double the NHL games we add: Gardiner, Voynov, Josi, Scandella, Brodie Demers.

    Now as to how hard it is to draft and develop real D men Nashville drafted Ryan Suter, SheaWeber and Kevin Klein in the first two rounds of the 2003 draft. Same rounds: Oilers took Marc Antoine Pouliot, Colin MacDonald and JF Jacques

  21. TheOtherJohn says:

    Spoiler

    Would seriously look at Myers, Pietrangelo, Myers or Ekman-Larssen just don’t think STL, Buff or Phx would do it for Yakupov

  22. gd says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    I have no clue whether Smith is doing a good job or not. I hope Oiler management has a clue. If I was to evaluate what teams I would rank the best at drafting and developing D in the last 5 years, I would go with the Rangers, Capitals and Canucks.

  23. stevezie says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    Pietrangelo is Norris material and still on his ELC, St Louis would be insane to trade him for the 1st. I’m willing to be convinced on Myers because I loved him so much his rookie year, but his contract is frightening and he has never played as well since year one. ELO remains the dream, though Jordan’s Staal’s “availibility” makes the conversation interesting.

  24. gd says:

    I don’t know much of why Myers seems to have regressed statistically since his rookie season. Does anyone know who has to pay his $10 Mill signing bonus if traded.

    My initial thought would be the Oilers would need someone else like Stafford to make that trade.

    As an aside, I find it interesting that Seguin didn’t want to go to the Worlds. He must not want to play in the Olympics.

  25. regwald says:

    gd,

    I’ve seen tweets from Mirtle and Terry Jones saying Seguin has some sort of hand that will require surgery. Thus he turned down the invite.

  26. cabbiesmacker says:

    TheOtherJohn:

    Would seriouslylook at, Pietrangelo or Ekman-Larssen just don’t think STL or Phx would do it for Yakupov

    Of course they wouldn’t. That would be about as stupid a trade as one could conjure up.

  27. LMHF#1 says:

    Signing Grebeshkov would be a solid gamble. Certainly better than the Barker one.

  28. DSF says:

    Dustin Brown is a bad, bad man.

  29. Traktor says:

    I think Edmonton can make the playoffs with Smid, Schultz, and Petry in the top 3, it just means their bottom 3 need to be just as good. Sutton and Potter aren’t good enough to roll 1A, 1B, 1C.

  30. DSF says:

    Traktor:
    I think Edmonton can make the playoffs with Smid, Schultz, and Petry in the top 3, it just means their bottom 3 need to be just as good. Sutton and Potter aren’t good enough to roll 1A, 1B, 1C.

    The Oilers were 29th in SH/G.

    Can’t win much unless that is above league average and goaltending is also above league average,

    The team is not nearly as good as the season results appear.

  31. Traktor says:

    DSF: The Oilers were 29th in SH/G.

    Can’t win much unless that is above league average and goaltending is also above league average,

    The team is not nearly as good as the season results appear.

    cool

    Not sure why you quoted me.

  32. DSF says:

    Traktor: cool

    Not sure why you quoted me.

    Because you think a little tweaking of the defense will make the Oilers a playoff team.

    It won’t.

  33. Ryan says:

    DSF,

    I’d say the team is about as good as the results appear. Can’t be much worse than 29th. :p

  34. Ryan says:

    DSF:
    Dustin Brown is a bad, bad man.

    Do you remember prior to the ’09 / ’10 season when Matheson floated the idea of a straight up trade of Hemsky for Brown?

    The tea leaves told me at the time that Matheson was testing the appetite and potential reaction of the fans for such a trade.

    At the time, the fans’ reaction was predictable…

  35. Traktor says:

    DSF: Because you think a little tweaking of the defense will make the Oilers a playoff team.

    It won’t.

    The problem with your post is your are adding up all the different symptoms like they are separate illnesses. Upgrading Edmonton’s defense would likely cure some of the symptoms that go along with too many 6-7-8 defensemen playing regular shifts.

    I’m not sure why you are always talking about shots on goal now. Back when Horcoff used to reflect well in that area your narrative was always about quality of shots. Lets try keep the goalposts in one spot.

    Edmonton would still need to make some upgrades (Horcoff, Belanger) but if they made those upgrades I think they could make the playoffs with 6 top 4D (without a top pairing D).

    I think Smid, Petry and Schultz are all top 4D so maybe that’s where our biggest difference is. I know just last year you were saying that Smid is an AHL defensemen and I’m not sure if you feel differently now.

  36. oilersfan says:

    I am finding it annoying that so many people here are so willing to trade this pick as if Yakupov were some sort of second rate pick, and that he wouldn’t warrant a young defenceman like Pietrangelo or OEL or Tlyer Myers straight up.

    Last season there were four players in the NHL with 40 goals: Stamkos, Malkin, Neal and Gaborik.

    Yakupov looks to be more of a goal scorer than Hall, possibly more than Eberle. Before his knee injury some scouts were saying he was the best player to be drafted since Crosby, ahead of Stamkos, Tavares and Hall. He beat by a substantial margin Stamkos’ 16 year old season and was on pace to kill Stamkos and Hall’s draft year before the WJHC and the knee injury that came with it. He came back from the injury to early, played injured, and never really recovered from it.

    While the OIlers may at some point trade Yakupov for OEL or Pietrangelo, I think if he is a 40 goal scorer that the dman coming back doesn’t entirely cover the bet, and I would want more.

    Based on his junior career, he appears likely to be a 40 goal scorer in the NHL . Those are rare, and worth every bit of a first pairing dman.

    The best 10 teams in the NHL have 2 top pairing dman, meaning there are 40 of them. That is ten times more common than a 40 goal scorer.

    Don’t just give this kid away guys, he’s going to be picked by the OIlers and I bet he stays awhile, if not his entire career.

  37. oilersfan says:

    oops, there are 5 times more. 20/4=5. top 10 teams have 20 not 40. too tired here

  38. Ryan says:

    oilersfan,

    Taylor Hall

    2008-09 Windsor Spitfires OHL 63 38 52 90 60 29 - .6 gpg / 1.42 ppg
    2009-10 Windsor Spitfires OHL 57 40 66 106 56 46 – .7 gpg / 1.86 ppg

    Steve Stamkos

    2006-07 Sarnia Sting OHL 63 42 50 92 56 13 – .66 gpg / 1.46 ppg
    2007-08 Sarnia Sting OHL 61 58 47 105 88 18 - .95 gpg / 1.72 ppg

    Nail Yakupov

    2010-11 Sarnia Sting OHL 65 49 52 101 71 -2 - .75 gpg / 1.55 ppg
    2011-12 Sarnia Sting OHL 42 31 38 69 30 15 – .73 gpg / 1.64 ppg

    Factoring in the injury this year (I don’t have the splits), Yeah, Nail looks pretty good obviously.

    He scored goals at a better clip at his draft -1 year in the OHL than Hall ever did, it’s too bad Tambo will trade him for a few more #5 dmen.

    Tambo always said, “You can never have too many 5,6 dmen…”

  39. commonfan14 says:

    oilersfan:
    I am finding it annoying that so many people here are so willing to trade this pick as if Yakupov were some sort of second rate pick, and that he wouldn’t warrant a young defenceman like Pietrangelo or OEL or Tlyer Myers straight up.

    Feel the same way. We’re like 10 months removed from LT and others talking about what a huge mistake it would be to trade the 2012 pick for NJ’s 2011 pick (and a shot at Larsson) because the 2012 pick could end up being Yakupov, which would be a disaster.

  40. Jesse says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    Tuebert is 22! You’re darn right he’s really young. 22 year old Defensemen who are capable at the NHL level are the exception, not the norm. I’m not sure many people are upset that Tuebert is “taking so long”.

    The reason the Oilers D is at the bottom of the league is because ST thought that it would be a good idea to heavily rely on a cast off bust (Barker), a guy who they weren’t sure could play on two feet (Whitney), and an AHL callup (Potter). The biggest surprise in the early part of the season was how well Smid had progressed in the offseason, an the biggest surprise of the second half of the season was how well Petry had progressed. That’s all due to development. The reason the Oilers’ D was at the bottom of the league was not because of poor development, but unrealistically expecting the new hires to carry the load (Sutton/Barker/Potter). If Petry hadn’t developed as well as he did, this year would have been even worse.

    As far as drafting goes, you’re mentioning draft picks that weren’t even made by this management team (not including Lowe as Prez of hockey operations now). 2003 was the Prendergast era of awful picks.

  41. stevezie says:

    commonfan14,

    Yakupov isn’t a 40 goal scorer until he’s a 40 goal scorer. That’s why it’s only a maybe that we could get OEL for him, and a definitely not that we could get Pietrangelo. Make the call, sure, but Pietrangelo was the best defenceman on a team whose defence put them within a win of winning the president’s trophy, and he was a couple points away from leading them in scoring. A norris candidate in the hand is worth more than one 40 goal scorer in the bush.

    DSF,

    Traktor’s plan of adding two or three more defencemna as good as Petry is more than a little tweaking. Keep in mind Carolina won the cup with a platoon of good defenceman and no great ones. Since Philly lost Pronger they’ve lacked an elite defender but have a couple of really good ones, I can’t name NJ’s all-star D, and with Greene hurt Washington made the playoffs with depth on D. 6 Guys who don’t give away goals can make up for a lack of all-stars. (I agree that elite players are the best way to go, I’m just saying they’re not the only way.)

  42. knighttown says:

    LT:

    Loving the series so far. I would humbly suggest you need to put GA/60 if you’re going to include P/60 when the discussion turns to defensemen. A lot of these guys aren’t asked to produce at all and will show very poorly if that GF/60/GA/60 balance isn’t shown. And unlike forwards, there isn’t really a Mendoza line. Whadda ya think?

  43. Ryan says:

    stevezie:
    commonfan14,

    Yakupov isn’t a 40 goal scorer until he’s a 40 goal scorer. That’s why it’s only a maybe that we could get OEL for him, and a definitely not that we could get Pietrangelo. Make the call, sure, but Pietrangelo was the best defenceman on a team whose defence put them within a win of winning the president’s trophy, and he was a couple points away from leading them in scoring. A norris candidate in the hand is worth more than one 40 goal scorer in the bush.

    DSF,

    Traktor’s plan of adding two or three more defencemna as good as Petry is more than a little tweaking. Keep in mind Carolina won the cup with a platoon of good defenceman and no great ones. Since Philly lost Pronger they’ve lacked an elite defender but have a couple of really good ones, I can’t name NJ’s all-star D, and with Greene hurt Washington made the playoffs with depth on D. 6 Guys who don’t give away goals can make up for a lack of all-stars. (I agree that elite players are the best way to go, I’m just saying they’re not the only way.)

    Last year, the Canucks came pretty close to winning the cup sans a true #1 d. Even Stauffer said something along the lines of they’re (were) a team with 6 #2 dmen (slight exaggeration).

  44. DSF says:

    Ryan: Last year, the Canucks came pretty close to winning the cup sans a true #1 d.Even Stauffer said something along the lines of they’re (were) a team with 6 #2 dmen (slight exaggeration).

    I’m not sure how you define a #1D but I would imagine Hamhuis is viewed that way by most observers.

    I’d be interested in hearing why you think he doesn’t qualify.

  45. godot10 says:

    So Carolina flukes a Stanley Cup win with a no-name defense after Justin Williams injures Saku Koivu, New Jersey no longer has Stevens, nor Niedermayer, Buffalo has 1 healthy defenseman, and Bergeron runs over Roloson, and this is supposedly evidence that one doesn’t need elite defensemen to win the Stanley Cup.

    One team in 40 years wins the Cup without an elite defenseman, rolling snake eyes 4 series in a row as their opposition is destroyed by injury, and this is conclusive proof that one doesn’t need elite defensemen to win the Cup.

    Yes, if you have 6 #2 d-men….but the Oilers are currently don’t even have 6 #4 defensemen. So Yakupov is irrelevant. Hall, RNH, Eberle, Hemsky, and Yakupov will win eff-all with 6 #3 defensemen.

    Draft Murray. Sign Justin Schultz and Jason Garrison. And forget about more fancy offensive toys for the moment.

    And then maybe you are your magical six #2′s within a couple of years.

  46. DSF says:

    stevezie:
    commonfan14,

    Yakupov isn’t a 40 goal scorer until he’s a 40 goal scorer. That’s why it’s only a maybe that we could get OEL for him, and a definitely not that we could get Pietrangelo. Make the call, sure, but Pietrangelo was the best defenceman on a team whose defence put them within a win of winning the president’s trophy, and he was a couple points away from leading them in scoring. A norris candidate in the hand is worth more than one 40 goal scorer in the bush.

    DSF,

    Traktor’s plan of adding two or three more defencemna as good as Petry is more than a little tweaking. Keep in mind Carolina won the cup with a platoon of good defenceman and no great ones. Since Philly lost Pronger they’ve lacked an elite defender but have a couple of really good ones, I can’t name NJ’s all-star D, and with Greene hurt Washington made the playoffs with depth on D. 6 Guys who don’t give away goals can make up for a lack of all-stars. (I agree that elite players are the best way to go, I’m just saying they’re not the only way.)

    I think we can agree that the Carolina team that won the cup is not a team to model a winner on…serendipity.

    I don’t disagree that adding 2 or 3 more Petry’s is a good idea I was just pointing out there is another elephant in the room.

    Traktor suggested that a couple more decent defenders would make the Oilers a playoff team but I think it’s worth noting that the Oilers were 29th in the league in shots on goal/game while ranking 20th in goals/game.

    Do you think that’s likely sustainable?

  47. DSF says:

    godot10:
    So Carolina flukes a Stanley Cup win with a no-name defense after Justin Williams injures Saku Koivu, New Jersey no longer has Stevens, nor Niedermayer, Buffalo has 1 healthy defenseman, and Bergeron runs over Roloson, and this is supposedly evidence that one doesn’t need elite defensemen to win the Stanley Cup.

    One team in 40 years wins the Cup without an elite defenseman, rolling snake eyes 4 series in a row as their opposition is destroyed by injury, and this is conclusive proof that one doesn’t need elite defensemen to win the Cup.

    Yes, if you have 6 #2 d-men….but the Oilers are currently don’t even have 6 #4 defensemen.So Yakupov is irrelevant.Hall, RNH, Eberle, Hemsky, and Yakupov will win eff-all with 6 #3 defensemen.

    Draft Murray.Sign Justin Schultz and Jason Garrison.And forget about more fancy offensive toys for the moment.

    And then maybe you are your magical six #2′s within a couple of years.

    This.

    All of this.

    As Vancouver, who are being held out as an example of winning with 6 or 7 second tier defensemen exemplifies, learned the hard way, you can never have enough defensemen when you’re a playoff team trying to win a cup.

  48. oilersfan says:

    Yakupov had 22+33=55 points in 29 games before the World Juniors

    Extrapolate that to 58 games and he has 44 goals + 66 assists = 110 points in 58 games.

    More goals, assists and points than Hall and Seguin.

    More assists and points but less goals than Stamkos in his draft year, but using 58 games instead of the 61 Stamkos played.

    Now, Stamkos is not a 40 goal scorer, he is a 50 and 60 goal scorer.

    I still think Hall will be a 40 goal scorer on a regular basis (assuming he plays 75 games per season)

    Yakupov has been described as being the best skater of all of them. Not just top end speed, but acceleration, pivoting, shifting, and using his edges. He has also been described as having a better shot than Hall or Seguin. Probably not Stamkos but in the range.

    MAybe he is only a 40 goal scorer in the bush, but he seems to have a good chance at being a 50 goal scorer in the bush playing with RNH. And for the record, Pietrangelo is no Norris Trophy winner in the hand. Hell he hasn’t even been nominated yet.

    I for one would NOT trade Yakupov for Pietrangelo straight up. I wouldn’t trade Hall for him, and by all indications Yak is slightly better offensively than Hall. Maybe not the total package of leadership and compete but at just scoring and creating offense, a bit better.

    In my 80′s redux, we have RNH = Gretzky. Hall = Messier. Yakupov = Kurri. Eberle = Anderson.

    I know the Eberle- Anderson comparison isn’t quite on but Yakupov has the hard, accurate quick release/one timer of Kurri.

    Eberle really is more of a Joey Mullen but he played for the wrong team so doesn’t fit the model :)

    Paaharvi for Ryan Murphy gives us the Paul Coffey.

    Maybe the Oilers should draft Malcolm Subban in the second round to give us our Fuhr although Henrik Samuellson looks like he will fill Tikkanen’s role just fine!

  49. oilersfan says:

    OH and in my 80′s redux, Smid is Lowe, Ryan Jones is Lumley, Horcoff is MacT (without the vehicular homicide), Smyth is Craig Simpson (but not as handsome), Sutton is Muni, Schultz is Huddy. Hartikainen is Tikkanen until/unless Henrik Samuelson gets here. Mike Krushelnyski is badly needed. Maybe Dubnyk can be Ranford and Packham can be Don Jackson.

    Really missing Coffey, Gregg and Krush. Not to mention Dave Hunter and some sort of Norm Lacombe/Jaroslav Pouzar.

  50. danny says:

    Eberle scores the tying goal with 8 seconds left vs the Swiss. Then he scored the shootout winner. No big deal. Par for the course.

    Nuge with a huge hit too.

  51. regwald says:

    danny:
    Eberle scores the tying goal with 8 seconds left vs the Swiss. Then he scored the shootout winner. No big deal. Par for the course.

    Nuge with a huge hit too.

    That was 0.8 seconds. Less than one second and it was a tip out of mid-air according to the article. In addition, some strange happenings in the shoot out where he shot and it took like two more shooters before they identified it was a goal via replay. Whacky times in SUI.

  52. stevezie says:

    oilersfan,

    I called Pietrangelo a Norris candidate, and even there he didn’t make the top 3, but I’ll be very surprised if when the numbers come out he wasn’t number 4. Now, he has only had one good season so it might be preemptive to call him sure thing, but he looks more certain than Nail at this point. I think we’re mostly on the same page here, I think trading Nail for a decent D-man and a decent pick is selling him short. An ELC all-star defender, however, sounds like a fine return to me. It’s not just who is the better player, it is also who needs what (for this reason I think OEL might be a possibility, the Coyotes have other good yuoung defenders).
    godot10,

    Yeah Carolina was a special case, but as the other teams from this year show that depth can go a long way. I’m going to presume to speak for Traktor here: No one is arguing we wouldn’t be better off with an elite defender. The question is whether the likelihood that Murray turns into that defender multuplied by his expected timeline makes him a better option than Nail. I think it doesn’t, I don’t think it’s that close. Consider everyone’s favourite D-man, Chris Pronger. Yes he turned into one of the best players of his generation, but he did so in St Louis, not Hartford. Considering what they got out of the deal, the Whalers probably would have been better off drafting Paul Kariya (debatable, I know).
    We need this pick to help us while Hall, Eberle, and RNH are still in the fold. Nail will do that. Trading the pick for an all-star defender straight up will do that. Ryan Murray? Maybe. He would not only have to hit his ceiling, he’d need to do so really quickly, and few defenceman can pull that tall order off.
    As nice as an elite defender would be, let’s not get so desperate for one that we clutch at straws (Schenn and Murray) hoping they turn into something they’re not while giving up on another elite scorer when we can get Garrison and Sekera (or whomever) for a lot less.

  53. commonfan14 says:

    godot10: Draft Murray. Sign Justin Schultz and Jason Garrison. And forget about more fancy offensive toys for the moment.

    I hope you’re not advocating drafting Murray at #1, because that makes no sense at all. Yakupov is easily the best asset available and can be traded for more than Murray if they decide to go for D over more offense. If Tambo tells Lowe and Katz he wants to take Murray #1, it means he’s completely incompetent and needs to be fired on the spot.

  54. slopitch says:

    Jesse, regarding Sean Burke being a good developer of goaltenders, Im mostly going by what I’ve read. This article raves about him being one of the best (its recent) and its rare that these guys get media coverage.

    Also his results on Mike Smith and Bryz are outstanding. Id say both a function of team structure and development.

  55. spoiler says:

    Some off-season thoughts:

    Jordan Tootoo has played all of about 6 minutes this playoffs, and might be available this summer. Brandon Yip has been stealing his lunch money. Tootoo would be a great fit here, considering there isn’t much agitation on this roster. Up north he’s a real hero, and by far the most popular NHL player. Tootoo would be a marketing coup and would be fantastic in the community.

    Matheson has been speculating that Marleau’s days in SJ are done. Vokoun might be available. Cal Clutterbuck possibly. Krejci, due to his lack of scoring against the Caps (I don’t see how this one can be true, he was tops in the playoffs a year ago). Kjalmarsson can be had. Either of the Pens expensive Dmen.

    Garrison apparently turned down a $2.5M a yr offer from FLA earlier this year, and is looking like he might test the market. I worry about this one. He’s only done it one year and with the thinness of the UFA market he’s sure to get a scary payday.

  56. spoiler says:

    Hjalmarsson. Sorry. Tried to fix it but I don’t have permission to edit my own comment.

  57. godot10 says:

    commonfan14: I hope you’re not advocating drafting Murray at #1, because that makes no sense at all.Yakupov is easily the best asset available and can be traded for more than Murray if they decide to go for D over more offense.If Tambo tells Lowe and Katz he wants to take Murray #1, it means he’s completely incompetent and needs to be fired on the spot.

    I won’t cry if they draft Yakupov, but I’m on Team Murray, me and Ryan’s mom out on Murray Island.

    Haven’t see Stu yet, but I’m hoping he shows up.

  58. spoiler says:

    godot10: I won’t cry if they draft Yakupov, but I’m on Team Murray, me and Ryan’s mom out on Murray Island.

    Haven’t see Stu yet, but I’m hoping he shows up.

    That made me smile.

    I don’t see how they can turn down Yakupov. It would have to be something nice and immediate to get me to walk away from the only sure impact player in the draft. Something equally impactful and ready to go.

    The only recent quote I’ve read of Stu’s is the one where he said MacKinnon would go top 5 THIS draft.

  59. stevezie says:

    spoiler,

    I love the Tootoo idea, and consider it realistic. I’m pretty sure we could get Michalek or maybe even Greene just by virtue of being willing to take them, but with their contracts and performance this season I’d call that plan C.

  60. spoiler says:

    stevezie:
    I love the Tootoo idea, and consider it realistic. I’m pretty sure we could get Michalek or maybe even Greene just by virtue of being willing to take them, but with their contracts and performance this season I’d call that plan C.

    Really, the one for me is Jordan Staal, who I didn’t mention above. And there’s a possibility the Rangers might have to make room on the blue line.

    I don’t know what it would take to get J. Staal, because likely there’s a couple of teams that we would have to outbid. The rumour has it that the Pens would be looking for an offensive Dman (altho they might make a play for Carle in the off-season, which also returns the Talbot favor).

    But damn, sure would be neat if they could swing both Jordan and Marc Staal somehow.

    Lol. No clouds in my sky this morning.

  61. spoiler says:

    Thank the gods for Bob Cole. Seeing goals isn’t important in the least.

  62. stevezie says:

    I said Green but I meant Martin. just to be clear.

    Spoiler, that’s a beautiful dream.

  63. Lowetide says:

    spoiler:
    Thank the gods for Bob Cole. Seeing goals isn’t important in the least.

    Buddy of mine hung up on me about three years ago when we were talking Bob Cole. All I said was he had lost it and it was beyond insane that they flushed Cuthbert and kept him.

    click.

    Lordy.

  64. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: Buddy of mine hung up on me about three years ago when we were talking Bob Cole. All I said was he had lost it and it was beyond insane that they flushed Cuthbert and kept him.

    click.

    Lordy.

    He’s had some choice Cole-isms today. There’s no one who can state the obvious like Bob: “the fans want a goal, that’s what they want.” Or say things slowly and backwards: “the 7 minute mark is now 15 seconds away”, meanwhile there’s been 3 passes. They shoulda used the Ottawa. PBP guy.

  65. danny says:

    Is he a Newfoundlander? ;)

    I’m watching NBC.

    I’ve been looking back through draft(-1) seasons. Yakupovs was pretty significant. Too bad he was hurt at the WJHC but the guy is a landslide consensus #1 overall. The draft talk reminds me of the Stamkos draft. Clear #1 but he’s not Sidney Crosby sentiment.

    Its crazy that we may be considering drafting for need at #1 overall, with a consensus runaway #1 on the board, and use it on a position that has a poor history of draft success. Not to mention on a guy that projects to have average offense, and is just barely younger than our draft picks last season. It just doesn’t make any sense.

    When’s the last time a #1 overall forward has busted? Stefan?

    I sincerely hope this is just the dog days of summer and we are looking for things to create drama over. I’d probably consider a deal with Montreal for Subban and #3, or CLB for Johansson and #2, but other than that we are trading a straight for a flush draw.

  66. commonfan14 says:

    It’s a function of my age I guess, but Bob Cole’s voice is still the only one I want to hear calling a big game. The comedy of errors has only added to the glory of his golden pipes IMO.

    I can still hear his ’93 Habs calls – DAAAYYYYY-JAR-DANNNN!!!!!

  67. spoiler says:

    Danny,

    They have to take Yakupov over Murray. I don’t think Murray’s really a consideration, unless the Yak’s knee has gone Himalayan. I think the only real danger is that some team is willing to offer up a real NHL player to get him. For eg, Bogo for the 1st.

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