JORDAN EBERLE 11-12: LIKE A HURRICANE (there’s calm in your eyes)

One of the absolute joys of being an Oiler fan is watching Jordan Eberle’s progress as an NHL player. No one I know predicted this kind of breakout season, but it’s also true that he is universally regarded as a natural talent and a cerebral hockey player. 2011-12 was exceptional.

JORDAN EBERLE 10-11
  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.82 (4th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 3.94 (3rd among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp: 3rd toughest among regular forwards
  • Qual Team: 8th best teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: 8.7 (2nd best among regular forwards)
  • Zone Start: 49.3% (8th most difficult among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 51.6% (6th best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 158/11.4% (5th among F’s>100 shots)
  • Boxcars: 68gp, 18-25-43 (led the team in points as a rookie)
  • Plus Minus: -12 on a team that was -52.
JORDAN EBERLE 11-12
  • 5×5 points per 60: 3.08 (1st among regular F’s, 2nd in NHL)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 4.77 (4th among regular F’s)
  • Qual Comp: 5th toughest among regular forwards
  • Qual Team: 3rd best teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: 5.7 (5th best among regular forwards)
  • Zone Start: 60.7 % (2nd easiest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 54.5% (best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 180/18.9% (1st among F’s>100 shots)
  • Boxcars: 78, 34-42-76 (led the team in points for 2nd year in a row)
  • Plus Minus: +4 on a team that was -26.
  1. What do these numbers tell us? Jordan Eberle had an exceptional season, the best offensive season by an Oiler in years. The last time an Oiler scored more than 76 points (Hemsky) the Oilers went to G7 SCF. Eberle finished tied for 15th in league scoring.
  2. But what do the numbers tell us? Eberle was majestic. A truly phenomenal step forward at age 21. His 5×5/60 was 2nd in the entire NHL behind Malkin and he killed Chicago (4gp, 3-9-12 +6).
  3. How good was the season? Good enough for him to get some votes for the post-season All-Star team and perhaps Lady Byng consideration.
  4. What’s the best thing about it? He did this at age 21. I’m not suggesting he has another gear beyond this one or even that would should consider this to be Eberle’s established level of ability. However, he posted a wonderful year on an offensively subpar team.
  5. What makes him so good? A few things. He’s wicked smart, and he is touched by God in the offensive zone–finding the right spot near the net, finding the puck in a crowd. He is a dynamite passer–this is an underrated skill–and his shot is quick, accurate and deadly. It might become his signature item, despite all the passing ability and puck wizardry. He has eyes in the back of his head, his passes have correct pace, his shot still surprises two years in.
  6. Is his shot heavy? I’d say quick release and his ability to slightly change angles on the goalie are his strengths. He’s such a smart player, even when the rest of the team was flagging Eberle found a way to post crooked numbers. His season was remarkably consistent for a young player.
  7. Was Hall stirring the drink? I’ll say no but it would be foolhardy to discount Hall and RNH. Hall went down for good early in the March 16th game, and after that Eberle was 12, 4-6-10 +1 .833; previous to that game, 66, 30-36-66 +3 1.00. So 2 points in 12 games. Can luck cover that? Sure. Hall’s impact–and the Nuge’s too–shouldn’t be discounted but I don’t think we should somehow punish Eberle for being able to keep up to them. He’s an exceptional player in his own right.
  8. Renney protected him. Certainly in zone starts, Renney gave the gifted kids a big push there. But the Qual Comp number wasn’t so drastic we should consider it protection beyond getting a good matchup for your best offensive options.
  9. Renney didn’t play him enough, he was in love with Hemsky and Jones. Eberle ranked 2nd in EV TOI among right wingers, his 14:24 about one minute behind 83. Eberle led RW’s with PP TOI (3 minutes).
  10. Did Renney handle him expertly? I’ll say yes and no. Renney played the Horc line against the toughs and they got the punishing zone starts, but Eberle and the kids earned more PP time. Eberle’s 3 minutes a night (Hall and RNH got about 3 minutes as well) could have been increased and more offense would have followed. I think the Oilers could improve by a few points if they gave Eberle increased PP time and dressed a 4th line that was good enough to pick up the slack at evens.
  11. So use him more on the PP and less at evens? Well the Oilers will use Eberle more next season. He ranked 97th among NHL forwards in time on ice, Edmonton could punch his playing time a little at evens and on the PP for 12-13.
  12. What is his outer marker? This could be it. If Eberle throws this at the league for a decade we should be thrilled. You never want to project any player on just one season (Eberle’s 2nd season does not resemble the first) so we should wait and see what his established level of ability looks like.
  13. You don’t think he’ll do it again. I don’t think it’s fair to expect him to do this every season. Of the three gifted kids, he was the most likely to have a breakout season first based strictly on age. He did it, but there’s a good chance we’re talking about Hall or the Nuge in this way a year from now.
  14. What can’t he do? With the idea that we can’t expect him to repeat this season every year, I don’t think there’s too many things he won’t be able to do on the ice. He should be a quality EV and PP winger, he could PK if they decide to use him there. I honestly didn’t see him flag or look disinterested at any time during the year and he made his line better. The kid has “it”, that God given something that makes something great. But we can’t get ahead of ourselves. It would be silly to do with all of these kids. There were 16 guys who scored 34 or more goals this season. Eberle was one of them, age 21.
  15. Can he score 40? I really don’t know. Was this a career year? He’s got that big brain and some kind of internal slide rule that allows him to fracture the defense and find corners and seams–was it luck? I don’t think so. Maybe a better question would be “how MUCH of this season was luck and how much was his unique skill set married to comfort level with the speed of the game?”
  16. He’s pretty good, right? He’s something else. Wonderful, wonderful young player. Thrilled he’s an Oiler.
  17. What can he be? Eberle has a chance to be a complete player-type, helping his team win and playing big minutes at evens, PK and PP. Cerebral, adjusts well. He’s a splendid young player. It’s important to remember he displayed a wide range of skills as a rookie and then built on them in year 2, becoming an NHLer of national prominence. Jordan Eberle may end up being that rare player who can help a team win in many situations.

  • Prediction for 2011-12: 82, 22-30-52 (.634)
  • Actual 2010: 78, 34-42-76 (.975)
  • Eberle exceeded expectations and kept on going

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51 Responses to "JORDAN EBERLE 11-12: LIKE A HURRICANE (there’s calm in your eyes)"

  1. jake70 says:

    21 year old, 2nd year player, and 22 overall pick with 76 points on a 29th place team in 78 games… Pretty freakin good, and hell of a pick for the scouting staff.

    Off topic, I am watching sports hilites, and I thought I heard the name “world peace” as a last name on a Laker player, sure enough they show the players stats graphic for the game and there is a guy with that surname……..seriously?

  2. Lowetide says:

    Probably similar to World B Free.

  3. HBomb says:

    jake70:
    21 year old, 2nd year player, and 22 overall pick with 76 points on a 29th place team in 78 games…Pretty freakin good, and hell of a pick for the scouting staff.

    Off topic, I am watching sports hilites, and I thought I heard the name “world peace” as a last name on a Laker player, sure enough they show the players stats graphic for the game andthere is a guy with that surname……..seriously?

    Yep, seriously. Metta World Peace. Formerly known by the name Ron Artest (one of the “bad boys” of the Indiana Pacers who helped precipitate that legendary brawl with the Pistons and their Fans in Detroit back in November of 2004).

    And no, this does not make me a basketball fan – haven’t given two hoots about the NBA since MJ retired from the Bulls in 1998.

  4. DBO says:

    Jake – Metta World Peace is the player formerly known as Ron Artest. Seriously.

    Eberle will be a 70 pt player his whole career. Love it. And we should be happy even if that’s his ceiling.

    Ryan Smyth can be an effective 3rd liner as long as minutes are managed.
    Same with Horcoff.
    Jones is a 4th liner. Anything more and we are not a playoff team.
    Belanger can’t be as bad next year can he?
    Eager. Who knows. But with Belanger and Jones he was ok. 4 th liner.

    So we need a 3rw and a 2lw. In house it’s Paarjvi and Harski. Is that enough if they add a top 4 dman? Who is out there ad a 2LW via ufa or trade?

  5. vishcosity says:

    Wow. Those clips stunned me both. I grew up on the Roxy Music version of that, but that clip was unreal. The bass player was so into that. I would love to have been a part of making that bit of history, it’s like there was a collective fire amongst them all some how.

    As for the hockey parallel, well, they both look like kids having no idea what time may bring, combined with a general lack of concern. Heidegger may have been trying to describe exactly this.

    Watching the Bulls and Jazz, game 4 or 5 of the 1991(?) finals, MJ had just thrown a running pass behind his own neck to Steve Kerr for the easiest layup ever. I said to my buddy, “What possibly could have been going through his head right there?” Dan’s response – “Absolutely nothing.”

    Catching existentialism via rock and hockey on Easter Sunday. This is probably the only site able to pull that off.

  6. DSF says:

    From Matheson this morning

    “• If the Oilers are picking No. 2 in the draft, I can see them trading back to No. 3 for an established player because they can still get Griffin Reinhart or Ryan Murray with their pick. Unless I’m way off base, the Oilers are taking either the Oil Kings defenceman Reinhart or the Everett Silvertips captain Murray.”

    http://tinyurl.com/c9thnxx

  7. commonfan14 says:

    It’s funny how nobody wants to say that Eberle can be a 90-100 point superstar – like he has a no-hitter going or something. I tend to think that there could be plenty of room to grow as the kid line all become men…

    Bulls and Jazz played in the ’97 and ’98 Finals. And Metta Ron Artest has gone from psycho to lovably eccentric over the years. I’ve really never understood people who love either hockey or basketball and don’t love the other too. Maybe that’s just a product of my childhood including both the dynasty Oilers and MJ.

  8. danny says:

    Eberle plays the game a lot like Markus Naslund IMO. Also they both do that puck drag/tuck before they shoot, and seem to cause trouble for goaltenders. Not a bad comparison, except WizKid is doing it about 5 years earlier than Naslund started delivering the goods.

  9. spoiler says:

    In the decades to come, young science students will be taught that the universe started with The Eberle, formerly known as the Big Bang.

    Presidents and Diplomats will be awarded the Eberle Peace Prize.

    Botswana will change its name to Eberleland. Not to be outdone, Burundi will change its name to New French Eberleland. Its citizens are known as Newfees.

    The world’s largest aircraft carrier, the SS Jordan Eberle, will be mothballed and turned into a museum in New York Harbour after Eberle marries the daughter of an Ayatollah to the son of a Netanyahu. Twin Towers spring spontaneously up from Manhattan’s dark earth to grace the skyline once more, except they are now known as Eberle’s Incisors.

    Chuck Norris dies in misery, haunted by the knowledge that he was too slow and weak to defeat Jordan Eberle.

    Mathematicians use Eberle to prove the existence of clutch.

    After the miracle in New York, Eberle officially becomes the Catholic Church’s first living saint. More importantly, he wins The Masters at age 55 by 10 strokes after having taken up golf the week before.

    The world’s currencies are placed on the Eberle Standard. The discovery of Eberle in the Antarctic starts a global Eberle Rush.

    What a season.

  10. vishcosity says:

    commonfan14,

    Well I had to look that up. I guess it was 1992 against the Trail Blazers and the pass was to John Paxson.

    If you remember college you weren’t really there.

  11. stevezie says:

    I’m sure I’m in the minority, but I thought his undressing of JDD the other night was even nicer than the famous first goal.
    He was also the Dub’s scholastic player of the year, which for some reason makes me like him more.

    On another note, apparently Hall and Eberle really look up to Whitney. So he might not be able to skate, but at least he’s a cool uncle, or whatever. I wonder who RNH hangs out with.

  12. D says:

    I think for a team to become a contender, they need a player or two who were selected later in the draft to pan out like Eberle. I suspect if there was a redo of Eberle’s draft, he would be selected in the top 5.

  13. Lowetide says:

    Oilers sent Hartikainen, Teubert and VV to OKC. terry Jones also reporting a presser tomorrow morning at 9. Guesses?

    1. They put Omark in a packing crate and he’ll reach Europe August 10.
    2. Renney’s gone.
    3. Tambellini promises the moon.

  14. sliderule says:

    I think Eberle RNH and Hall should have got more power play time and four on four time.

    The coach has told us why they didn’t.Egos of the veterans .Renney couldn’t deal with that and that is one of the reasons he will be gone.You have to think Belangers undeserved power play time means he was one of the problems.Whether Smitty and Horcoff were part of it your guess is as good as mine.

    What will the new coach do about this?Smitty may not be here.Belanger and Horc are pretty well unmovable so the coach and GM will have to set them straight.

  15. jake70 says:

    The World Peace name. I do remember the Artest name but didn’t realize he changed it. Sillines. Don’t followi NBA other than the hilites and if the Raptors are on I watch for a bit.

    I wonder if Stu or Lowe end up on the set at TSN Tuesday? Hmmm.

  16. LMHF#1 says:

    Um, at least one person said he’d do this…

    I’ll also say he gets 90 next year and is a 100 point man at least once in his career. Such an amazing hockey player. Underestimated his whole career. Always delivers. And we sometimes forget, wanted to be an Oiler his whole life.

    He’s the guy with the puck on his stick when this whole period of garbage hockey pays off (well, as much as this shameful stretch can be made to pay off anyway). Oddly enough, acquiring him didn’t require garbage hockey.

  17. stevezie says:

    D,

    I feel comrtable guarenteeing Eberle would go in the top 5. Last week on the puck daddy podcast Greg Wyshynski ranked him number 2 after Stamkos, though Doughty, Pieterangelo and Karlsson are obviously in the mix.

  18. Clay says:

    Lowetide:
    Oilers sent Hartikainen, Teubert and VV to OKC. terry Jones also reporting a presser tomorrow morning at 9. Guesses?

    1. They put Omark in a packing crate and he’ll reach Europe August 10.
    2. Renney’s gone.
    3. Tambellini promises the moon.

    Probably something about Big Ben, maybe Parliment too…

  19. DSF says:

    Terry Jones ‏ @sunterryjones

    Stand down Oiler fans. The 9 am presser looks to be standard green garbage bag day proceedings.

  20. Lowetide says:

    DSF:
    Terry Jones ‏ @sunterryjones

    Stand down Oiler fans. The 9 am presser looks to be standard green garbage bag day proceedings.

    Poor Omark. I hope they poked a few holes into the crate.

  21. melancholyculkin says:

    I know this is going to be an unpopular sentiment, but Eberle should be shopped this summer.

    All the warning signs are there. His shot rates stayed flat, but his sh% shot up immensely.

    1029 PDO.

    Cushy zone starts, but his corsi rel decreased.

    His individual point percentage is in the 90% range, which is something guys don’t sustain.

    He’s a hell of a player, but I think this season had a lot of smoke and mirrors to it. It would have to be an incredible return, but if Eberle gets you Subban from MTL or OEL from Phoenix or someone like Hedman, I think the trigger has to be pulled.

    The Oilers have been selling low for a long time now. It’d be nice for them to sell high for a change.

  22. Lowetide says:

    All reasons to suggest he won’t repeat what just happened and I agree with you. But he’ll still be a very good player and trading Eberle at this point might cause a riot.

  23. melancholyculkin says:

    Something I forgot to mention is that when C&B published scoring chances at the halfway point of the season Eberle was leaking almost 4.5CA/60. Now this was 40 games ago so things might have changed and a 22 year old, second year player giving back what he creates isn’t unusual, but it does make me wonder if Eberle will ever be able to play PvP minutes.

  24. Lowetide says:

    melancholyculkin:
    Something I forgot to mention is that when C&B published scoring chances at the halfway point of the season Eberle was leaking almost 4.5CA/60. Now this was 40 games ago so things might have changed and a 22 year old, second year player giving back what he creates isn’t unusual, but it does make me wonder if Eberle will ever be able to play PvP minutes.

    This was his 21-year old season. He certainly doesn’t have Hall’s numbers in this area (we’ll talk about it when we get there) but there’s so much youth out there I’m not certain it is possible to get an accurate gauge yet in that area.

  25. TheOtherJohn says:

    Something that would make my Monday morning. D Katz attends thepresser, apologizes for how bad the Oilers are, promises we will not be in lottery again over tenure of his ownership and announces that the entire leadership of the hockey operations department is no longer working for the Oilers.

    Wishes KL, ST and RO all the best in their future endeavors, etc, etc.

    Typical green garbage bag day for team that finishes 30th, 30th and 29th while spending near the cap!!

    What do I expect:: ST to read, verbatim, the speech he gave at the end of the 09 season.Need to compete harder, be harder to play against……… At least we got a 3C that can win face-offs after 4 years, but he forgot how to score

  26. D says:

    I agree. It’s a tough call between Doughty and Eberle. But top 5 for sure.

    stevezie:

    I feel comrtable guarenteeing Eberle would go in the top 5. Last week on the puck daddy podcast Greg Wyshynski ranked him number 2 after Stamkos, though Doughty, Pieterangelo and Karlsson are obviously in the mix.

  27. OilClog says:

    Eberle is a gem, is it really a tough call between doughty and ebs? I don’t think it is. Doughty has talent no doubt about it, but Eb’s is Mr. Impact. 1.Stamkos 2.Eberle 3.Karlson 4.Doughty.

    I’m going to waking up every day for the next few weeks it seems, hoping that change is finally going to come. Positive change. I have my doubts.

    Poor Omark.. I starting to believe the housewives of somewhere run the Oilers. So touchy and emotional over everything.. you’re banished to the couch for a month!

  28. gogliano says:

    One thing I think Eberle does fantastically and that is really key to elite offensive games is economy of movement. It is similar to LT’s “changing of angles” thesis but it is also what makes that kind of thing possible; changing angles means you’re doing it faster than the guys around you. Someone mentioned this (delooper?) in a previous thread but I don’t think it gets mentioned enough: Eberle does not telegraph his moves and he does just enough to accomplish his ends. I think this is a large part of why he is able to get shots off before goalies have a chance to eliminate the higher percentage shots. Really a fun player to watch — a certain minimalist grace to his game.

  29. spoiler says:

    Mickelson imitating spOILer’s golf game on #4:

  30. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide:
    All reasons to suggest he won’t repeat what just happened and I agree with you. But he’ll still be a very good player and trading Eberle at this point might cause a riot.

    No kidding. I was at Rexall for the Hall draft in 2010, and when TSN announced on the big screen that Eberle was in the trade discussion for the Seguin pick the crowd went nuts booing.

    At the time he hadn’t played a game as an Oiler. Since then he’s led the team in scoring, twice.

    Trading such a crowd favourite would be a very, very dangerous game.

  31. spoiler says:

    Lowetide:
    Oilers sent Hartikainen, Teubert and VV to OKC. terry Jones also reporting a presser tomorrow morning at 9. Guesses?

    1. They put Omark in a packing crate and he’ll reach Europe August 10.

    He’s the guy at the back of the train in the gorilla suit in Trading Places.

  32. ashley says:

    An Oil Change episode some time last year showed footage of the 2010 draft where Tambellini was trying to get the 2nd OV pick from Boston. In the clip they were offering Hemsky as a starting point. Chia countered with Eberle instead of Hemsky for the 2OV pick (Seguin). Tambellini relayed this information to the draft table and Stu quickly chortled out “No way. They’re not getting Jordan”.

    At that point, Eberle had yet to play a game in the NHL. In addition to the Taylor/Tyler discussion, we were all talking about MPS, his speed, and his success in the SEL league (playing against men!…remember that line over and over again). Much of the concern about Eberle was that he would be too small (another smurf) and far too slow to have significant success in the NHL. One poster I recall said “If he can become a 15-15 guy for us, I think we can call him a success”.

    What a delighful surprise, indeed. Although it seems Stu knew the score all along.

  33. hunter1909 says:

    melancholyculkin:
    I know this is going to be an unpopular sentiment, but Eberle should be shopped this summer.

    All the warning signs are there. His shot rates stayed flat, but his sh% shot up immensely.

    1029 PDO.

    Cushy zone starts, but his corsi rel decreased.

    His individual point percentage is in the 90% range, which is something guys don’t sustain.

    He’s a hell of a player, but I think this season had a lot of smoke and mirrors to it. It would have to be an incredible return, but if Eberle gets you Subban from MTL or OEL from Phoenix or someone like Hedman, I think the trigger has to be pulled.

    The Oilers have been selling low for a long time now. It’d be nice for them to sell high for a change.

    Who is this posting? The 1970 Penguins GM?

    This poster is obviously right, while the rest of us are all wrong. So. The franchise that traded away the greatest player ever at 27, Paul freaking Coffey(who the youngsters wouldn’t know but who was actually rated close to Wayne Gretzky when he was an Oiler), Mark Messier and others.

    Brilliant. The 29th place team trades off it’s top point getter – for who? Luke Schenn + a 2nd round pick?

    Please go back to Calgary Puck, troll.

  34. cabbiesmacker says:

    Maybe it’s the size thing but for me Eberle is our Zach Parise…painful as that is to say.

    EBERLE – 2011/2012 – 21 years old – 2nd Season

    5×5/60 – 3.08 (TOI/60 14:00)

    5×4/60 – 4.77 (TOI/60 2:90)

    Rel Corsi – 5.7

    OZone S / F – 60.7 / 54.5

    PARISE – 2007/2008 – 23 years old – 3rd Season

    5×5/60 – 1.90 (TOI/60 13:65)

    5×4/60 – 3.85 (TOI/60 3:47)

    Rel Corsi – 13.8

    OZone S / F – 59.7 / 54.1

    Their Qual Comp / Qual Team numbers are similar with Eberle playing slightly higher comp with slightly higher team. ( I suspect Parise’s 07 / 08 numbers as posted at BTN are incorrect)

    Age and time in league are significant factors I’d venture, as would the quality of team during those years be. Certainly NJ’s goaltending was an upgrade. Goals for each team are remarkably similar. Dev’s were 206/197 +9 GD. Oilers 212/237 -27 GD

    One side will prop the sheltered argument while the other can cite that Eberle accomplished most of this with a rookie C, minus Taylor Hall for significant games, in front of a weak D and sub par goaltending.

    I don’t think we’ve seen the last of Mr Eberle’s growthspurt quite yet. The kids got ice in his veins, has excelled at every level he’s played at, and scored big goals on a consistent basis. The mind boggles at what he might post over the course of a season running with 22 & 23 year old versions of Hall and RNH and it could happen if OIler management figures out how to build a capable second line behind them.

    I’d throw Vinny, Martin, and Brad out as a comp but that’d be getting a little ahead of myself and buttonfronts probably wouldn’t get the job done.

    DSF? I think he’s better than Wellwood, any F sporting a Panthers jersey, and I would like to bet you $100 that he outscores any Canuck forward not named Sedin over the course of the next 3 years. :)

  35. cabbiesmacker says:

    spoiler: He’s the guy at the back of the train in the gorilla suit in Trading Places.

    Or the detective visiting him.

  36. cabbiesmacker says:

    melancholyculkin,

    Uhhhhhhh……….NO! You strengthen the parts around him, (or allow age to make it happen), and stand back marveling at the wonder of it all.

    But I will give you credit for donning the flak suit and poking your head outside the box. I used to plink brave gophers with similar mindsets during my rural Sask days.

  37. melancholyculkin says:

    hunter1909.

    Brilliant. The 29th place team trades off it’s top point getter – for who? Luke Schenn + a 2nd round pick?

    Yes, because that’s what I was advocating.

  38. Mr DeBakey says:

    The 29th place team trades off it’s top point getter

    Best player on a crap team?
    Hmmm
    You’ll notice the Oilers ain’t won a g-d thing with Eberle in the line-up.

    Also
    What a relief the season is over.
    The worst is, the must add at least one real d-man and a goalie or they’ll be in the same toilet again next season.

  39. Lowetide says:

    Hello, lunacy? We’ll be there in an hour.

  40. Bos8 says:

    Lowetide: Hello, lunacy? We’ll be there in an hour.

    Now that’s, a classic.

  41. Dipstick says:

    Trading Eberle would exceed the bad Karma earned in the Smyth debacle ten fold.

  42. ASkoreyko says:

    melancholyculkin:
    Something I forgot to mention is that when C&B published scoring chances at the halfway point of the season Eberle was leaking almost 4.5CA/60. Now this was 40 games ago so things might have changed and a 22 year old, second year player giving back what he creates isn’t unusual, but it does make me wonder if Eberle will ever be able to play PvP minutes.

    I am sorry but you are going to wonder if Eberle will EVER be able to play PvP minutes because of the results from his second season in the league? Seriously?

    I am all for advanced stats and the extra angles they give us when looking at a player, but I think we also need to keep sample size in mind when looking at a performance from either side. For instance when looking at his S%.

    Why does his rookie season have more weight when it comes to his mean level of performance? It is pretty difficult to call one out of two samples an outlier don’t you think? Especially when one of those seasons is a rookie year.

    I know we are entering into the silly season now as Oiler fans (endless arguments all summer that will have zero new evidence presented by each side) but I think its a little early for us to declare Eberle anything, especially a kid who happened to get lucky for an entire season.

    Also Eberle has shown us before its foolish to count him out, all the kid has ever done is raise the level of his game time and time again.

  43. bookje says:

    The last time an Oiler scored more than 76 points (Hemsky) the Oilers went to G7 SCF.

    I think the implication is clear – The Oilers are going to the Stanley Cup finals this season!

  44. "Steve Smith" says:

    Just a fantastic song. Not his best song (which of Jesus’s miracles was your favourite?), but I think it’s the one that made me fall in love with him.

    vishcosity,

    Crazy Horse is the most aptly named band in the history of rock. This is the song that’s always epitomized them to me.

    Eberle’s pretty good too. Melancholy Culkin gives the most clear-eyed assessment of him in this thread, I think, but it’s tough to get full value when trading high-end players. I’m concerned that the gulf between return and perceived value may exceed the gulf between actual value and perceived value.

  45. oilers89 says:

    melancholyculkin,

    Lowetide,

    I think that the lower corsi and some other dips that are presented in the stats could be fully chalked up to Eberle playing without Hall a lot more this year. Last year when healthy they were always together on a line. I believe that Hall managed to inflate Eberle’s first year underlying numbers, and that this year Eberle showed an ability to play without Hall and still go positive.

  46. Wolfie says:

    If you trade Eberle he is almost certainly going to be the best player in the trade. Usually the team getting the best player wins the trade.

    I’m not a big numbers guy. Since coming to this site I’ve learned a great deal on advanced stats and I don’t doubt Eberle has had some good luck this year. Maybe this is his ceiling. Given his age and how he plays the game I would hope it is not.

    As melancholy points out, Eberle should be due for a correction. I think the only way Eberle regresses is if the injury bug bites him.

    Watching the way he plays and from where he shoots the puck goes a long way in explaining his high shooting percentage. This discussion has been had already in this place. It is possible he may be a high percentage shooter for his career.

    We are blessed by being able to watch both Hall and Eberle. They are two completely different players. Probably both capable of posting huge numbers. I think Eberle will have the better shooting percentage over their respective careers. Eberle seems to be a much more accurate shooter. Hall seems to need more 5 bell scoring chances to convert. I know scoring chances are counted but you can’t argue that the quality of a particular chance can vary greatly. I’m not sure there’s a tool out there that can measure scoring chance efficiency but if there is I’m willing to bet Eberle comes out on top.

    Eberle still has one more year at a bargain price. His value is high but what can you realistically expect in return? I know I don’t want to see a quality for quantity trade. So who in the league would you target in return?

  47. "Steve Smith" says:

    Wolfie:
    If you trade Eberle he is almost certainly going to be the best player in the trade.Usually the team getting the best player wins the trade.

    Thanks; this is what I was trying to get at above with my blather about comparative gulfs.

  48. jfry says:

    i know i could be tarred and feathered for this. is it possible that smytty is one of the issues in the locker room? he’s had a bit of a long journey through teams. playing hardball for 100k. asking out of col. asking out of la. now we have issues in our locker room?

    anyhow…i have nothing conclusive but it’s a way of looking at things. if we play him in a top 6 role again next year we’re built like a lottery team again. certainly not a deep team.

  49. Traktor says:

    If someone was smart enough to track battles won/lost Eberle’s win percentage would be ridiculously high. You wouldn’t even need to look at any other stat to know he is borderline elite. It all starts and ends with who comes out with the puck the majority of the time. You can probably count the times that the puck died on his stick this year on one hand (probably not, but you get the point).

    It doesn’t hurt that his release lightning quick.

    I wouldn’t bet against him.

  50. Edmonton Oilers Even-Strength Scoring: Jordan Eberle All Alone At The Top | Edmonton Journal says:

    [...] Eberle has had a phenomenal season.  Allan Mitchell of Lowetide wrote a gushing post the other day celebrating Eberle’s season, and in another year full of disappointment it’s one of the few bright spots that Oilers fans [...]

  51. Wolfpack says:

    Jordan Eberle – tons of try with a cerebral style that just makes him a treat to watch. Makes the smart play almost every time. I am betting he has been a coach’s favourite at every level he has played.

    The player he proably reminds me most of is Ray Whitney. Smallish winger with a great shot who is smart enough to have turned his talents into a long and prosperous NHL career. Whitney always seemed to be in traffic but never really took the big hit ala Taylor Hall. If Eberle can fashion his game and career after Ray Whitney, that would be just fine with me. Let’s hope we don’t let this one get away.

    His high shooting percentage is a bit concerning – it will come down – but he also strikes me as having a good enough shot to consistently put up an above-average shooting percentage.

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