MAGNUS PAAJARVI 11-12: ONLY LOVE CAN BREAK YOUR HEART

The Edmonton Oilers 2009 1st rounder Magnus Paajarvi had a hard time running with the gifted kids this season. Is there hope for Magnum?

Magnus Pääjärvi  10-11
  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.36 (8th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 3.45 (6th among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp: 9th toughest among regular forwards
  • Qual Team: 12th best teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: 3.2 (7th best among regular forwards)
  • Zone Start: 51.6% (5th easiest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 52.4% (4th best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 180/8.3% (8th among F’s>100 shots)
  • Boxcars: 80gp, 15-19-34
  • Plus Minus: -13 on a team that was -52.
Magnus Pääjärvi  11-12
  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.75 (12th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 2.84 (9th among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp: 9th toughest among regular forwards
  • Qual Team: 11th best teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: 6.6 (3rd best among regular forwards)
  • Zone Start: 47.7% (11th easiest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 49.9% (6th best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 79/2.5% (10th among F’s>75 shots)
  • Boxcars: 41, 2-6-8
  • Plus Minus: -7 on a team that was -26.
  1. What do these numbers tell us? Paajarvi did not progress as an offensive player. He didn’t have outstanding linemates but he was also tentative and lacked confidence. These are very poor offensive results, even considering the quality of player lining up with him.
  2. What the hell happened? The organization lost him, but as Dennis King identified during his rookie year young Svensson isn’t going to be able to run with the big guns unless it’s as a complementary piece of the puzzle.
  3. Is there any good news? Paajarvi did have a solid CorsiRel and his ZS/finish was a nice number. There’s a player here, just not a feature player offensively.
  4. How can they be better? Two things. Oilers need to find this kid a mentor, a Pisani winger who can do what ‘Nando did for Stoll and Torres. Teaching these kids about position and reading the play, where to be, all that stuff.
  5. Are you going to go on another MacT rant? No, but these kids who aren’t touched by God would have an easier time if the coach wasn’t trying to get 6 in the boat every damn year. Lordy.
  6. What’s the other thing? Well, I think that the club might want to see if Paajarvi can run with a Hall-Eberle or Nuge-Nail. The guy has terrific speed and scored 15 as a rookie, surely he’s a more promising option than Ryan Jones.
  7. Why did he get left behind? A year ago, as a rookie, MP delivered a decent amount of offense based on role but he went backwards this season. A rough start in his rookie season was met with patience, but this year coach Renney sent him away for seasoning. Renney had some things going on the top 2 lines and didn’t want to worry over Paajarvi and Omark. The result was a worn down Smyth and a lost season for Paajarvi and Omark. I’m generally strong on Renney, and do respect it must be a nightmare to bring 11 forwards who don’t shave along at the same time, but this was a case of opportunity missed imo.
  8. Is there any hope for him as a top 6 forward? Sure, but he’s going to be the third wheel, the end of the batting order. Hell it isn’t his fault, there will be three #1′s and Eberle in the top 6. If I’m Magnus, those other two spots are the goal. Get in there, son! Somebody has to be Willy Lindstrom!
  9. Can he make it as a two-way Pisani? I don’t know, those guys take time to develop and Paajarvi has some youth issues. He’s fast and abandons the zone really early, but he’s not the center either so I don’t really know how much Edmonton gets out of having a third defender in those situations. I think he’ll settle down, when he gets it we’ll know because Paajarvi is already a pretty cool player. If he ever gets to be effective, well that’ll be music.
  10. What would be a good role for him next season? He should be able to play a 4line role if this team can get a strong 3line with all the vets. I wouldn’t mind a 4 man rotation of Paajarvi, Hartikainen, Lander and Petrell.
  11. Give the 4line to the Finns and Swedes? Sure. They can all pass and take a pass, every damn one of them. And all but Paajarvi have a little jam.
  12. That’s pretty inexperienced. Sure, and one doubts they start the season but my point is all of those men have some promise. I don’t see Eager or Jones outstepping their current roles, but Paajarvi could. In fact there’s a real good chance.
  13. Why won’t Paajarvi use his size? Same reason Dustin Penner doesn’t use his size: it’s not part of his makeup. I prefer the Earl Weaver-Whitey Herzog method, which is “well we’re not going to worry about that; why don’t you go out there and do what you are good at, and we’ll worry about the rest.”
  14. What is his outer marker? 15-20 goals a season and a guy the coach can count on to play tougher minutes.
  15. Is he a good candidate? He’s got some good arrows–speed, defensive awareness (although not yet effective) and youth.
  16. Downside? Paajarvi is going to have to do lots of work, grinding all of his natural skills into a useful role player’s skills. That takes time.
  17. Will he be an Oiler? Great question. Oilers have sent away some good hires over the years (Chimera and Brodziak would look good in the current mix) but this is a top 10 overall. Teams are loathe to give up on them.
  18. What was the biggest problem this year? Two things. Confidence and the coach never found him a role.
  19. What should we watch for in the summer? Oilers sending away some of their plumbers, not signing Parros and possibly coach Renney (or the new coach) discussing his role for next season.
  20. What would be ideal? A Peca-Pisani third line he could pop onto when things were going well.

NHL Prediction for 11-12: 82, 20-20-40 (.488)

Actual 2011: 41, 2-6-8 (.195)

 

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89 Responses to "MAGNUS PAAJARVI 11-12: ONLY LOVE CAN BREAK YOUR HEART"

  1. hunter1909 says:

    I happily predict Pajaarvi ends up playing on the top six within 2 seasons, so long as Renney is gone.

    Smyth joining the Oilers fucked up his ice time.

    The team’s “veterans” don’t seem to help much at all.

  2. hunter1909 says:

    Give the Fantastic Four of: Hall, Eberle, RNH, Yakupov anyone at all playing any other position and they’re going to blossom into very nice inflated trading pieces over the next ten years(anyone else that is).

    Call it the Blair MacDonald effect.

  3. spoiler says:

    All I know is, a fledgling TSN, desperate for content, used to ram The World’s Strongest Man Competition re-runs down our throat. This was also before poker became something more than a game played at the back of a bus or in a garage. Michael Landsberg actually had to deliver news from behind a desk (but was still a prozac princess).

    Anyway, The Strongest Man Competition… Was usually won by some glacial mountain by the name of Magnus.

    So, there you go.

  4. spoiler says:

    That’s good/bad news on Klefbom.

    Good news in that staying in Sweden alleviates the D pipeline pressure.

    Bad in that for his development the sooner he’s playing in the A the better.

    He could get passed and have a tough time cracking the line up for ice time when he does get here.

  5. DBO says:

    If Renney is back I hope Magnus plays on the left with Nuge and Eberle. He tried Petrell and Jones there for frick sakes. Anyone with a bit of skill will do well with those two, and if Renney tells him to be the defensive conscience and use his speed to complement the other two he’ll do well. His size and speed taking passes from those two wizards will create problems for backpedaling dmen.

    I still hope for

    Hall-Gagner-Yakupov
    MPS-Nuge-Eberle
    Smyth-Horc-Hemsky
    Eager/Harksy-Belanger/Lander-Jones

    The mythical 3 scoring lines. Make it happen.

    And with all the Hall to centre talk, what about Magnus at centre? he is strong, knows his own zone and has crazy speed to get him around the ice. Wouldn’t he make more sense at centre then Hall, who we want driving down the wing and creating problems and scoring (unlike Magnus who would shoot it from way outside and not drive the net)

  6. Jordan says:

    hunter1909:
    Give the Fantastic Four of: Hall, Eberle, RNH, Yakupov anyone at all playing any other position and they’re going to blossom into very nice inflated trading pieces over the next ten years(anyone else that is).

    Call it the Blair MacDonald effect.

    All of the talk about Horcoff playing as the 1LW makes so much sense now!

  7. M Parkatti says:

    I agree with DBO — if Gagner is the piece they need to move out for a D upgrade, MPS at centre starts making a lot of sense. I’d say he’s the kid with the most defensive smarts and the ability to execute (ie he has the speed to make a defensive play). The kid does have a shot and can pass the puck. His biggest weakness is driving the net — a winger’s task — so, why not take away that responsibility? Put him between Hall and Hemsky/Yakupov. That could be in the running for the fastest line in history.

  8. DSF says:

    As a 21 year old, this Euro player, 6’1″, 185, great wheels, defensively sound, put up 21G 22A 43P +23 in 50GP in the AHL.

    This player has become an effective NHL third line player who kills penalties and chips in offensively and can move up and down the lineup as required.

    This player is Jannik Hansen of the Vancouver Canucks who was drafted out of Denmark in the 9th round.

    There ya go.

    Based on this season’s performance in both the NHL and AHL, I think it’s reasonable to assume Paajarvi’s 15 goal rookie season was an outlier.

    While it’s certainly possible that feeding Paajarvi top 6 minutes and PP time might result in higher numbers, that is likely also what the case would have been had Hansen been fed a steady diet of Sedin Time and PP TOI. (worked for Anson Carter)

  9. rickithebear says:

    MP: Offensive Defencman.
    1. Can carry the puck up with Speed.
    2. Semi-drives the net and and can loop net with pocession.
    3. Was back defensively before the second dman at times.
    4. 6% Shooting% is awsome for Dmen.
    5. Cannot be any worse for GA than Schenn.

    Uh did they switch him to forward Cause he cannot skate backwards?

  10. spoiler says:

    rickithebear:
    MP: Offensive Defencman.
    1. Can carry the puck up with Speed.
    2. Semi-drives the net and and can loop net with pocession.
    3. Was back defensivelybefore the second dman at times.
    4. 6% Shooting% is awsome for Dmen.
    5. Cannot be any worse for GA than Schenn.

    Uh did they switch him to forward Cause he cannot skate backwards?

    Ricki, does Magnus strike you as the kind of player to ride Forwards into the boards, and defend the crease at all costs?

  11. Gerta Rauss says:

    I’ll join the chorus of trying MP at center-he seems to have some of the tools and I think he would be a better fit than Hall.

    Renney was asked about it late in the season and he didn’t dismiss the suggestion…it never came to be but it has been discussed among the Oiler brass.

  12. spoiler says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    I’ll join the chorus of trying MP at center-he seems to have some of the tools and I think he would be a better fit than Hall.

    Renney was asked about it late in the season and he didn’t dismiss the suggestion…it never came to be but it has been discussed among the Oiler brass.

    I think he could be a Horcoffian style centre.

    His whole game needs more battle though. I don’t think it’s in his make-up personality-wise, and I suspect that’s the reason he was HSed a few times in Sweden. Somebody needs to piss in his corn flakes and kick his dog every morning for a year.

    Sorry if I’m posting a lot. At home, sick.

  13. bookje says:

    spoiler: I think he could be a Horcoffian style centre.

    His whole game needs more battle though.I don’t think it’s in his make-up personality-wise, and I suspect that’s the reason he was HSed a few times in Sweden.Somebody needs to piss in his corn flakes and kick his dog every morning for a year.

    Sorry if I’m posting a lot. At home, sick.

    Are you suggesting 6 years at $5.5 million for Mangus?

  14. Gerta Rauss says:

    bookje,

    …and a no movement clause!!!

  15. spoiler says:

    bookje: Are you suggesting 6 years at$5.5 million for Mangus?

    For the future Strongest Man in the World? Don’t know how you could sign him for less.

  16. spoiler says:

    Trouba vs Dumba at the U18s on TSN right now, for those who don’t care for exciting daytime TV gems like Girl Meets Gown.

  17. Jordan says:

    Gerta Rauss,
    bookje,

    The Legacy of an Oilers Captain? Probably what the story will be…

    The Legacy of a poor General Manager? What actually happened, and what I expect to happen again.

    ——

    I like Pajaarvi – he’s got a lot of REALLY great tools. However, he doesn’t seem to have the hockey IQ or the Vision to be a Dynamic scorer.

    But, is that really what this team needs?

    I think Pajaarvi has almost everything needed to be a top flight support player on an excellent scoring line. But as many people have suggested, the main problem with him doing that is that he doesn’t have the kind of desire that I would like to see out of him when pursuing the puck and checking players. Considering the current makeup of the youth movement, that’s EXACTLY what the Oilers need in a support role.

    Pajaarvi has the speed, size, and smarts to keep up with the other youngsters, if he can bring something to the table.

    Its pretty clear to me that no one has figured out what the “somehting” needs to be. And it seems clear to me that he doesn’t know either. As LT put it, someone needs to pick a role for this guy, and let him grow into it.

  18. Traktor says:

    DSF:
    As a 21 year old, this Euro player, 6’1″, 185, great wheels, defensively sound, put up 21G 22A 43P +23 in 50GP in the AHL.

    This player has become an effective NHL third line player who kills penalties and chips in offensively and can move up and down the lineup as required.

    This player is Jannik Hansen of the Vancouver Canucks who was drafted out of Denmark in the 9th round.

    There ya go.

    Based on this season’s performance in both the NHL and AHL, I think it’s reasonable to assume Paajarvi’s 15 goal rookie season was an outlier.

    While it’s certainly possible that feeding Paajarvi top 6 minutes and PP time might result in higher numbers, that is likely also what the case would have been had Hansen been fed a steady diet of Sedin Time and PP TOI. (worked for Anson Carter)

    cool story bro

  19. "Steve Smith" says:

    GOJIRA!

  20. rickithebear says:

    spoiler: Ricki, does Magnus strike you as the kind of player to ride Forwards into the boards, and defend the crease at all costs?

    Yes I do think he could be Tom Gilbert.

  21. fuzzy muppet says:

    The kid is only 21years old and was rushed to the big league. Maybe a dose of AHL playoffs will help him realize that, with his frame, he doesn’t have to be physically intimidated.

    IMO, at the least , he will be a real nice piece as a defensive 3rd line winger, with enough skill to move up into the top 6.

    He and Harti should literally be chained to Smyth like those zombies in The Walking Dead season finale and be forced to watch and learn.

  22. spoiler says:

    Traktor: cool story bro

    It’s kind of cute when Traktor goes down on DSF like Hughson on a Sedin.

    Sad though, that neither can read a calendar yet, at their ages.

  23. Matt.N says:

    spoiler: It’s kind of cute when Traktor goes down on DSF like Hughson on a Sedin.

    Sad though, that neither can read a calendar yet, at their ages.

    Cool Story Bro
    A phrase sarcastically used to indicate one’s disgust or indifference towards a tl;dr story.
    - Urban Dictionary

    If your going to troll a troll, at least come correct.

  24. DSF says:

    spoiler: It’s kind of cute when Traktor goes down on DSF like Hughson on a Sedin.

    Sad though, that neither can read a calendar yet, at their ages.

    I have it on good authority that both Sedins (and Jim Hughson) can read a calendar.

    It’s too bad that some folks can’t see through the haze of wishing’ and hopin’ to peg Magnus for what he is.

    Kid has plywood hands, zero physicality but nice wheels.

    If he ever learns to use his body to separate players from the puck, he might turn into Jannik Hansen but first he’ll have to grow a pair and work on his shot.

    Unfortunate that Stu didn’t see what others did when Paajarvi fell in the draft and left Ellis, Kulikov, Leddy and Rundblad on the board. Never mind Johansson, O’Reilly, Clifford,

    The Oilers sure could use one of those young defensemen.

    Kulikov, for example, has already played 198 NHL games and has outscored Paajarvi 70-42.

  25. gogliano says:

    spoiler: It’s kind of cute when Traktor goes down on DSF like Hughson on a Sedin.

    Sad though, that neither can read a calendar yet, at their ages.

    I think you need to check your internet memes.

    http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/cool-story-bro

  26. Matt.N says:

    Magnus put up 25 points in 34 games at 21 in the AHL for a total of 0.62 PPG. Gabe Dejardins league equivalencies translates a players 21 year old scoring level in the A to the NHL at 0.46. This would project MPS at 0.28 PPG in the NHL. Over a full season that equals 23 points.

    I just don’t see top 6 scoring potential out of this young man.

  27. Mr DeBakey says:

    I think you need to check your internet memes.

    I bet Spoiler’s face is red.
    The internet, what an endlessly fascinating place.

    Based on this season’s performance in both the NHL and AHL, I think it’s reasonable to assume Paajarvi’s 15 goal rookie season was an outlier.

    Ok, maybe fascinating is too strong a word.

  28. DSF says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    I think you need to check your internet memes.

    I bet Spoiler’s face is red.
    The internet, what an endlessly fascinating place.

    Based on this season’s performance in both the NHL and AHL, I think it’s reasonable to assume Paajarvi’s 15 goal rookie season was an outlier.

    Ok, maybe fascinating is too strong a word.

    See wishin’ and hopin’ above.

  29. Matt.N says:

    That 2009 draft is looking pretty bad for FWDs.

    We would have burned Stu in effigy if he took Ryan O’Reilly or Marcus Johansen at 10.

  30. mattwatt says:

    DSF: I have it on good authority that both Sedins (and Jim Hughson) can read a calendar.It’s too bad that some folks can’t see through the haze of wishing’ and hopin’ to peg Magnus for what he is.Kid has plywood hands, zero physicality but nice wheels.If he ever learns to use his body to separate players from the puck, he might turn into Jannik Hansen but first he’ll have to grow a pair and work on his shot.Unfortunate that Stu didn’t see what others did when Paajarvi fell in the draft and left Ellis, Kulikov, Leddy and Rundblad on the board. Never mind Johansson, O’Reilly, Clifford, The Oilers sure could use one of those young defensemen.Kulikov, for example, has already played 198 NHL games and has outscored Paajarvi 70-42.

    Hands are an issue, yes, but not plywood. Not the greatest, but can handle the puck and make solid plays. As for physicality, yes he does not deliver bone crushing hits but he has never ran backwards from contact a la Joffrey Lupul.

    One can state all the solid players that were still on the board, but I and likely many others feel that MPS will mold into a solid NHLer. He should turn out to be a superior version of how Ryan Jones is currently used: Solid 2-way player, defensively sound, plays on the 3rd line but can slot into your top-6 when injuries hit.

    MPS’s biggest issue has been his development. When given a lot of oppurtune ice, see said “rookie” season, he did produce some offence and held his own considering how crappy that team was and the fact that he was a rookie. This year he was rarely allowed to play with talent early on, got into a funk, seemingly came out of it when playing alongside Hemsky and Horcoff (players who I feel MPS should be joined at the hip with) then was sent back to the AHL so true players like Eager and Hordichuk could get their ice-time. Furthermore, Renney did not apply MPS’s strengths of speed, defensive positioning, length and reading the ice to the penalty-kill where some feel like where he should be playing from day one. When one is not given the chance to play with talent or used in positions that suit your strength, how are they suppose to get better?

    Yes, Jansen has jam and does a lot of nice things. But if you watch MPS with Horcoff and Hemsky, you also saw nice speed and someone who could role with skill, hold his own, and keep the puck moving in the right direction (MPS’s Corsi gives validity to this). MPS will likely never be an all-star. That is okay with me. What he has a really good chance of becoming though is a really solid player on a good hockey club. Someone who helps you win hockey games.

    What is wrong with that? For if he becomes that, MPS sounds a lot like those players you mentioned above.

  31. Ducey says:

    DSF,

    Lets look at Henrik Sedin as a comparable for PRV.

    Henrik had 29, 36, 39 and 42 pts in his first four seasons with the Canucks.
    PRV had 34 in year one.
    He even strength points were 20, 27, 20 and 29 in those seasons.

    PRV didn’t get the gravy minutes the Sedin’s have and didn’t scored as much this season. He was well ahead of Henrik in year one. Its likely that had PRV stay with the Oilers he would have got 12 points in 40 games. That would put him at 20 and right in the same ballpark as Sedin’s EV points.

    Many of the faults you like to point out are also attributable to lots of Swedes getting used to the NHL.

    Its a little early to write of PRV.

  32. commonfan14 says:

    Ducey: Its a little early to write of PRV.

    It is early, but please let’s all stop comparing PRV getting used to today’s NHL with the Sedins getting used to the pre-lockout NHL. They are very different things.

    The Sedins started scoring right after the lockout.

  33. hags9k says:

    I would have liked to see the organization give him a whirl on the blue line in OKC this year. As LT said it was a lost season so what could it have hurt.

  34. Ducey says:

    commonfan14: It is early, but please let’s all stop comparing PRV getting used to today’s NHL with the Sedins getting used to the pre-lockout NHL. They are very different things.The Sedins started scoring right after the lockout.

    Was it the new Rules or the fact they were then 23/ 24 years old?

  35. Ducey says:

    hags9k:
    I would have liked to see the organization give him a whirl on the blue line in OKC this year. As LT said it was a lost season so what could it have hurt.

    I don’t get this. They sent him down to work on his offence, to get PP and PK time, to do shoot outs, etc. They sent him down to develop some more. Why screw him up by getting to try a new position he hasn’t played since he was 14?

    You teach the knuckleball to guys you know won’t make it with their weak stuff, not guys who need more innings.

  36. commonfan14 says:

    Ducey,

    I think the new rules were a much bigger factor. They made it easier for them to play their game without getting clobbered and gave them more PP time to thrive on. They also haven’t been nearly as effective in the playoffs, a time when the refs tend to forget about the new rules.

  37. spoiler says:

    Matt.N: Cool Story BroA phrase sarcastically used to indicate one’s disgust or indifference towards a tl;dr story.
    - Urban Dictionary

    If your going to troll a troll, at least come correct.

    Have to admit, had no idea there was a sarcastic reference slash internet meme there.

    Apologies to Traktor.

    Damn, the things we have to google these days.

  38. spoiler says:

    The point was, DSF gave us Hansen’s 22yo season. On a PPG basis Paajarvi has out-scored Hansen in Hansen’s 21 yo season. So can we wait a year before making that comparison?

  39. Mr DeBakey says:

    One thing about drafting MPS

    The Oilers were taking Scott Glennie until Dallas grabbed him first.
    Glennie has played 1 NHL game, and had .53 PPG in 70 AHL games this year.
    Paajarvi was .74 in 34 games

  40. commonfan14 says:

    Upon further (ie some) review, the Sedins have actually been fairly close to their regualr season production in the playoffs. Then again, Henrik got outscored by Raffi in last year’s final when the B’s were allowed to get rough.

  41. Ducey says:

    commonfan14:

    Ducey,

    I think the new rules were a much bigger factor. They made it easier for them to play their game without getting clobbered and gave them more PP time to thrive on. They also haven’t been nearly as effective in the playoffs, a time when the refs tend to forget about the new rules.

    I don’t think I can agree.

    Daniel went from 31 pts to 54 pts in his 4th season, which was PRE-lockout.

    Henrik went from 32 PIMs pre lockout to 56 PIMs post lockout (presumably showing more spunk)and went from getting 13 power play points pre lockout to 33 PP points post lockout. So he went from 42 pts to 75 pts and 20 of this was on the PP. His 5 x 5 pts only increased by 13. The new rules didn’t help that much.

    Maybe he got more PP chances but my point is that PRV hasn’t got those minutes so counting them is kind of irrelevant in the comparison.

  42. FPB94 says:

    I don’t know why this year wouldn’t be considered the weird one. (Sophomore Jinx and all that).

    The guy shot at the same clip but with a very shittier SH%.

    LEt him time. Always ask yourself : How old is he? And then remember some greats were way worse at his age.

  43. gogliano says:

    Well, I don’t know why one–absent DSF style trolling–would consider one season to the exclusion of the other. We have two seasons, let’s look at them both. I think Dennis’ oft-voiced concerns in MP’s first season that it was hard to see where his goals were going to come from going forward had a lot of truth to it, and MP’s tendency to take low value shots this season exacerbated the problem. 15 goals really felt flattering to him that first season. If he came out and potted 20 then obviously the concerns weren’t valid but in hindsight Dennis’ observations seem astute.

    There is a real player here but I think MP needs to get out the old Dvorak game tapes and go from there. He is really young and something might click but if we’re laying down wagers I think we should be happy if MP is a 15-20 goal man who drives the play forward and minimizes opponents’ chances/puck time while he is on the ice. A very valuable player if he grows into the role.

  44. VOR says:

    So we are playing one of Lowetide’s favourite games, find a comparable. I have a great one. He ain’t swedish but otherwise he fits almost exactly.

    Player X – Scouting report – blazing speed, playing against men while a boy, not very tough, greater shooter than passer, doesn’t use his teammates enough, remarkable on ice vision, needs to develop his defensive game so good positioning leads to good outcomes, prefers offensive role. Big strong kid trains hard but doesn’t use body. Almost word for word the scouting report on Magnus by the way.

    Player X – first year in NHL, straight from Europe, 80 games, 9 goals 24 assists 33 points. Year two 27 games in NHL with just 8 points stuck on third line. Trip to minors 32 points in 45 games. The knock is that Player X wont go to hard areas of ice, deifinitely a complimentary player, game dies on his stick too often.

    Now from their rhetoric here the Magnus haters would say that first season was the oultier. This player is clearly shit and will never be anything but replacement level at best. Thing is a very bright GM didn’t believe that.

    So who did player X grow up to be?

    Martin Erat.

    We’d all take Martin Erat on the Oilers wouldn’t we?

  45. russ99 says:

    Based on this season’s performance in both the NHL and AHL, I think it’s reasonable to assume Paajarvi’s 15 goal rookie season was an outlier.

    Not a chance.

    Renney misued him and Omark, and the play of both were affected in the NHL and the AHL. What’s worse is that we were competing for a bottom 3 finish at the time. Waste of both time and resources just to prop up his innefective system with veteran minutes…

    I often think it would have been better if both started in the AHL with big numbers, then Renney would have been forced to play them in offensive situations and on the power play.

    For the sake of our non-first line Canadian kids moving through the system, I hope Renney isn’t back next year, otherwise Paajarvi will follow Omark out of town when he hits RFA next summer.

    Omark is bad enough, but Paajarvi is a first round pick, and you usually try to maximize those.

  46. Woodguy says:

    VOR,

    Well done.

  47. spoiler says:

    Just wish he’d find his inner Hossa. Even chippy Havlat. Come to the dark side, young Paajarvi.

    (I think the meds are working)

    He has far too much upside to not spend a lot of time with this boy. Maybe he doesn’t get all the way there, but his middle end ain’t so bad either.

  48. spoiler says:

    Battle of the Goalies comin up…

  49. DSF says:

    gogliano:
    Well, I don’t know why one–absent DSF style trolling–would consider one season to the exclusion of the other.We have two seasons, let’s look at them both.I think Dennis’ oft-voiced concerns in MP’s first season that it was hard to see where his goals were going to come from going forward had a lot of truth to it, and MP’s tendency to take low value shots this season exacerbated the problem.15 goals really felt flattering to him that first season.If he came out and potted 20 then obviously the concerns weren’t valid but in hindsight Dennis’ observations seem astute.

    There is a real player here but I think MP needs to get out the old Dvorak game tapes and go from there.He is really young and something might click but if we’re laying down wagers I think we should be happy if MP is a 15-20 goal man who drives the play forward and minimizes opponents’ chances/puck time while he is on the ice.A very valuable player if he grows into the role.

    In other words…Jannik Hansen.

  50. DSF says:

    spoiler:
    The point was, DSF gave us Hansen’s 22yo season. On a PPG basis Paajarvi has out-scored Hansen in Hansen’s 21 yo season. So can we wait a year before making that comparison?

    Hansen was born on March 15, 1986.

    He turned 21 on March 15, 2007,

    As the NHL computes things, he was 21 years old for the 2007/08 season.

    In that season he scored 21G 22A 43P in 50GP in the AHL.

    Paajarvi will be entering his 21 year old season in September so, should he be able to score .42 GPG and .86 PPG in the AHL next season, we would have a draw.

    This past season Paajarvi scored .21 GPG and .74 PPG so I would suggest he has some work to do to be as good as Hansen offensively.

    Worth noting: straight out of junior, Hansen scored 12G 22A 34P in 72 games.

    Paajarvi, as we all know, was “playing with men” while Hansen was with the Winterhawks and, of course, one was a top ten pick and the other was a ninth round pick.

    BTW, more than a few observers think Hansen has been the Canucks best player in the playoffs and I agree.

  51. VOR says:

    Actually DSF I think Hansen is a great comparable. I expect MPS’ career to be very similar.

    Hansen has improved immensely since his rookie year. The same amount of improvemnet from MPS makes him a 27 goal scoring 2nd/3rd line winger who can play defense. I am glad you agree what an awesome upside Pajarrvi has.

  52. gogliano says:

    DSF: In other words…Jannik Hansen.

    I’d say Hansen marks the lower bound (no improvement) and Erat marks the upper bound (maximum possible improvement) of possible outcomes (good find Vor, by the way). Both outcomes are improbable but possible. But, sure, I agree that MP’s play as a 19-20 year old is comparable to Hansen’s play as a 24-25 year old. If I’m placing bets on who is likely to improve going forward, though, I’m going with the 19-20 year old.

    We know MPS isn’t a Hall-like talent but we also know he can fill an NHL roster in a specified role. It takes all kinds. I don’t see the problem here.

  53. DSF says:

    VOR:
    Actually DSF I think Hansen is a great comparable. I expect MPS’ career to be very similar.

    Hansen has improved immensely since his rookie year. The same amount of improvemnet from MPS makes him a 27 goal scoring 2nd/3rd line winger who can play defense. I am glad you agree what an awesome upside Pajarrvi has.

    Oh, I agree…problem is, the Oilers used a top 10 pick for Jannik Hansen.

    But, since that is a sunk cost, if Paajarvi grows a pair and can improve his shooting percentage, (Hansen’s career is 10.8% – Paajarvi’s is 6.6%) Magnus should be as valuable.

  54. DSF says:

    gogliano: I’d say Hansen marks the lower bound (no improvement) and Erat marks the upper bound (maximum possible improvement) of possible outcomes (good find Vor, by the way).Both outcomes are improbable but possible.But, sure, I agree that MP’s play as a 19-20 year old is comparable to Hansen’s play as a 24-25 year old.If I’m placing bets on who is likely to improve going forward, though, I’m going with the 19-20 year old.

    We know MPS isn’t a Hall-like talent but we also know he can fill an NHL roster in a specified role.It takes all kinds.I don’t see the problem here.

    You’re being fooled by some of the numbers in Paajarvi’s rookie season where he was afforded much more top 6 and PP TOI due to injury than he will get going forward.

    As I stated earlier, what do you think Hansen’s numbers would have looked like if he was playing with the Sedins instead of 3rd line rabble?

    Wouldn’t be close.

  55. spoiler says:

    You’re right DSF, you were comping a 21yo season that Paajarvi hasn’t had yet not a 22. Glad you got the point.

  56. DSF says:

    Baron’s game here:

    http://tinyurl.com/7ny93pm

  57. Lowetide says:

    BEAUTY, DSF. Thanks.

  58. DSF says:

    If that doesn’t work…this one does:

    http://tinyurl.com/d4enpay

  59. Gerta Rauss says:

    I think Ralphy from A Christmas story just scored in the kids game that’s playing in between periods in Houston.

  60. DSF says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    I think Ralphy from A Christmas story just scored in the kids game that’s playing in between periods in Houston.

    Would that be a decent Paajarvi comp?

  61. Lowetide says:

    great movie. Every year I ask for the lamp for Christmas.

  62. Gerta Rauss says:

    Lowetide,

    Well it’s no coincidence that Ralph and Flick are your avatar…and the profanity that came out of Darren Macgavin’s mouth when he tried to fix the furnace….lol…..

  63. Gerta Rauss says:

    DSF,

    I think Ralphie is tougher in the corners…

  64. DSF says:

    Paajarvi injured.

  65. Gerta Rauss says:

    DSF,

    According to the color guy, it’s pronounced Pavari…I thought I saw MP come out after the collision but I’m not sure…

  66. DSF says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    DSF,

    According to the color guy, it’s pronounced Pavari…I thought I saw MP come out after the collision but I’m not sure…

    The colour guy sounds like a punch drunk boxer.

    Paajarvi back on the ice.

  67. Lowetide says:

    I’m watching with the sound down, but it is probably Doug Sauter. Legend in OKC and elsewhere.

  68. DSF says:

    The fat white check playing with her boobs on the Smooch Cam may be the highlight of the game.

    But I’m old :)

  69. VOR says:

    DSF,

    So a 27 goals a year for a 2nd/3rd line winger isn’t worth a top ten pick?

    Paajarvi did play with third line crap his rookie year. Well actually 12th best of regular forwards see above. That would be fourth line crap. Thus I’d say your ongoing ascertion that Hansen was playing with crap and Paajarvi was playing with Sedins seems a little preposterous. So if Paajarvi in his rookie season had played with 5th best linemates like your guy Hansen in his rookie year he would have blown Hansen’s rookie season out of the water. Oh wait, he did. Never mind that Paajarvi also faced tougher competition in his rookie season than Hansen did in his.

    I picked Erat for a good reason by the way. He shot 2.6% in his sophmore season, Paajarvi 2.5%. The next year Erat was 11.7%. Paajarvi at 11.7% is a 17 goal scorer at evens and a 4 goal scorer on the 2nd powerplay unit. He’d be doing that playing with the 12th best linemates and 9th best competition. A 21 goal scorer who can do that with 4th line linemates and 3rd line competition has a really good chance of a long useful career.

    Now imagine him with the Sedins and a 65% OZ start or better. Yikes. Or perhaps Eberle and RNH.

  70. DSF says:

    If

    VOR:
    DSF,

    So a 27 goals a year for a 2nd/3rd line winger isn’t worth a top ten pick?

    Paajarvi did play with third line crap his rookie year. Well actually 12th best of regular forwards see above. That would be fourth line crap. Thus I’d say your ongoing ascertion that Hansen was playing with crap and Paajarvi was playing with Sedins seems a little preposterous. So if Paajarvi in his rookie season had played with 5th best linemates like your guy Hansen in his rookie year he would have blown Hansen’s rookie season out of the water. Oh wait, he did. Never mind that Paajarvi also faced tougher competition in his rookie season than Hansen did in his.

    I picked Erat for a good reason by the way. He shot 2.6% in his sophmore season, Paajarvi 2.5%. The next year Erat was 11.7%. Paajarvi at 11.7% is a 17 goal scorer at evens and a 4 goal scorer on the 2nd powerplay unit. He’d be doing that playing with the 12th best linemates and 9th best competition. A 21 goal scorer who can do that with 4th line linemates and 3rd line competition has a really good chance of a long useful career.

    Now imagine him with the Sedins and a 65% OZ start or better. Yikes. Or perhaps Eberle and RNH.

    If Paajarvi ever scores 27 goals I’ll do naked cartwheels in front of Rexall Place.

    Paajarvi had significant top 6 minutes and PP time (5th among forwards) in his rookie season.

    Now that the Oilers have better options, it’s very unlikely he’ll see that time again.

    Martin Erat just finished a career season at the age of 30 with 58 points.

    Henrik Sedin has a career best 83 ASSISTS.

    Can you spot the difference?

  71. DSF says:

    Game over.

    Barons outshoot Houston 37-20.

    Paajarvi: 0G 0A 0P 2SH

    Batting .145 against AAA pitching.

  72. VOR says:

    As usual you cherry pick stats. Pajaarvi was 8th in total minutes on the power play. Last I heard eight guys don’t play at a time on the PP. So he was second unit PP and likely will be for his entire career. As ofr this top six minutes I suggest you prove it and that it had an effect on his scoring since he was 17th in ESTOIG and 17th in TOIG. He played more games than most of his teammates, that doesn’t mean he was playing second line minutes. Almost 40% of the time he played with Sam Gagner and Linus Omark. Hansen in his rookie year played over half the time with Ryan Kesler and Alex Burroughs. Who was playing 2nd line minutes?

    By the way what better second line option than MPS do the Oilers have for standing in front of the net on a power play. In fact, if they don’t re-sign Smyth Paajarvi may be getting first power play minutes.

    I never suggested Paajarvi was going to be Henrik Sedin. I suggested he was going to be Martin Erat. Comparing Erat and Sedin is a classic straw man argument. Suggesting I am stupid because I can’t see the difference is an ad hominem attack. Neither does any credit to your original argument which I gather was a feeble attempt to compare Hansen and Pajaarvi.

    I love how you can see the future. I gazed into my crystal ball and discovered it contains you trying to get out of doing naked cartwheels in front of Rexall Place. I am sure everybody here will come to see it happen, because I won’t forget. I am pretty sure most of us would pay for the ticket to see that.

  73. VOR says:

    Jannick Hansen first 6 AHL playoff games 0 0 0 -4.

    MPS first 2 games 0 1 0 Even. Already pulling away from Hansen.

  74. "Steve Smith" says:

    VOR: I am pretty sure most of us would pay for the ticket to see that.

    I emphatically would not.

  75. VOR says:

    0 1 1 that is and even plus minus.

  76. DSF says:

    VOR:
    As usual you cherry pick stats. Pajaarvi was 8th in total minutes on the power play. Last I heard eight guys don’t play at a time on the PP. So he was second unit PP and likely will be for his entire career. As ofr this top six minutes I suggest you prove it and that it had an effect on his scoring since he was 17th in ESTOIG and 17th in TOIG. He played more games than most of his teammates, that doesn’t mean he was playing second line minutes. Almost 40% of the time he played with Sam Gagner and Linus Omark. Hansen in his rookie year played over half the time with Ryan Kesler and Alex Burroughs. Who was playing 2nd line minutes?

    By the way what better second line option than MPS do the Oilers have for standing in front of the net on a power play. In fact, if they don’t re-sign Smyth Paajarvi may be getting first power play minutes.

    I never suggested Paajarvi was going to be Henrik Sedin. I suggested he was going to be Martin Erat. Comparing Erat and Sedin is a classic straw man argument. Suggesting I am stupid because I can’t see the difference is an ad hominem attack. Neither does any credit to your original argument which I gather was a feeble attempt to compare Hansen and Pajaarvi.

    I love how you can see the future. I gazed into my crystal ball and discovered it contains you trying to get out of doing naked cartwheels in front of Rexall Place. I am sure everybody here will come to see it happen, because I won’t forget. I am pretty sure most of us would pay for the ticket to see that.

    In the 2010/11 season, Paajarvi was second among forwards in total TOI to Andrew Cogliano.

    He was 5th in total PPTOI just behind Hemsky.

    That will never happen again.

    Deal with it,

    http://tinyurl.com/blugddz

  77. FPB94 says:

    ERA W-L
    1,29 0-1 These are the Nats’ starters. Incredible.
    4,26 1-1
    1,42 2-0
    2,04 1-0
    0,56 2-0

  78. VOR says:

    In 2010/2011 Paajarvi played 15:23 minutes a game. That is slightly less than Ryan Jones played this year. Paajarvi will play 15:23 minutes per game again in his career because that is pretty typical for a third line winger.

    He was fifth amongst forwards, eighth over all on the powerplay in total minutes. He was 13th overall in power play time on ice per game. That will also happen again. There are not thirteen players on the Oilers who will put up more minutes than he does on the PP. Not least of all because we have many skilled PP players and no size or net presence.

    I get that once your arguments are refuted that you resort to simply repeating the same misleading stat in the hope that somehow requoting the wrong thing will make it right. I will tell you again it simply further reduces your credibility when instead of saying, okay I’m wrong, or thinking up a new argument you just go on using the same cherry picked absurdity over and over again. Or do you really believe Gagner and Omark (Pajaarvi’s most common linemates about 40% of the time) are better than Kesler and Burrows (Hansen’s most common linemates his rookie season at over 50% of the time)?

    Your belief that MPS had protected minutes on some magical second line exists only in your head. What matters is the totality of his minutes not individual samples of them. In order to repreat his rookie time on ice all Paajarvi neads is typical NHL third line minutes, and some limited power play time. Also typical minutes for a third line forward with hands. In other words Paajarvi duplicating the same set of circumstances that prevailed over the totality of his rookie season is almost a certainty. He might well play even more.

  79. raventalon40 says:

    DSF:
    As a 21 year old, this Euro player, 6’1″, 185, great wheels, defensively sound, put up 21G 22A 43P +23 in 50GP in the AHL.

    This player has become an effective NHL third line player who kills penalties and chips in offensively and can move up and down the lineup as required.

    This player is Jannik Hansen of the Vancouver Canucks who was drafted out of Denmark in the 9th round.

    There ya go.

    Based on this season’s performance in both the NHL and AHL, I think it’s reasonable to assume Paajarvi’s 15 goal rookie season was an outlier.

    While it’s certainly possible that feeding Paajarvi top 6 minutes and PP time might result in higher numbers, that is likely also what the case would have been had Hansen been fed a steady diet of Sedin Time and PP TOI. (worked for Anson Carter)

    I don’t think outlier means what you think it means.

  80. bookje says:

    Ok, who is this VOR person arguing with DSF – I haven’t seen VOR around these parts before.

    I have a theory – I think it is DSF using another name to argue with himself.

  81. VOR says:

    Damn, I knew somebody would figure it out eventually.

  82. "Steve Smith" says:

    bookje,

    Well, duh – who do you think is behind my account?

  83. gogliano says:

    Player X:

    80 15 26 41

    Paajarvi:

    80 15 19 34

    Oh, what’s that? Paajarvi, in his rookie season, matched Gordie Howe’s goal totals and was close on points. I didn’t even adjust for era effects.

    Though Paajarvi plays left wing and Howe played right so the comparison isn’t perfect.

  84. bookje says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    bookje,

    Well, duh – who do you think is behind my account?

    I thought you were Woodguy…the funny side of woodguy

  85. cabbiesmacker says:

    bookje: I thought you were Woodguy…the funny side of woodguy

    I don’t think funny side means what you think it means.

  86. art vandelay says:

    Did Magnum PI even score a single NHL point this year?
    Just cut the bullsh!t and call it what it is: Another Failed Oiler draft pick.
    Change the name of the franchise to the Western Long Island Oilanders.

  87. bookje says:

    art vandelay:
    Did Magnum PI even score a single NHL point this year?
    Just cut the bullsh!t and call it what it is: Another Failed Oiler draft pick.
    Change the name of the franchise to the Western Long Island Oilanders.

    I am pretty sure that Art is the lazy and not so bright side of DSF. Seriously man – just start posting “Oilers suck” and save yourself the typing time.

  88. edwards_daddy says:

    “It is early, but please let’s all stop comparing PRV getting used to today’s NHL with the Sedins getting used to the pre-lockout NHL. They are very different things.”

    Well, the scoring this season was pretty much down to 03-04 levels.

  89. commonfan14 says:

    Awesome. Let’s forget about Yakupov and take a Derian Hatcher clone first overall then.

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