ALES HEMSKY RE 11-12: OUT OF THE BLUE AND INTO THE BLACK

With all the wonderful talent Edmonton has acquired via the draft over the last few seasons, it is easy to forget that Ales Hemsky is a splendid hockey player in his own right. Among the best things about 2012 is the Hemsky contract.

ALES HEMSKY 10-11

  • 5×5 points per 60: 2.88 (1st among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 3.47 (5th among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp: 6th toughest among regular forwards
  • Qual Team: 9th best teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: 3.7 (6th best among regular forwards)
  • Zone Start: 53.9% (easiest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 52.5% (3rd best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 100/14.0% (3rd among F’s>100 shots)
  • Boxcars: 47gp, 14-28-42 (led the team in assists)
  • Plus Minus: +3 on a team that was -52.
ALES HEMSKY 11-12
  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.57 (6th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 2.88 (8th among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp: 2nd toughest among regular forwards
  • Qual Team: 4th best teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: 8.6 (2nd best among regular forwards)
  • Zone Start: 50.3% (7th easiest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 49.9 % (7th best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 137/7.3% (8th among F’s>100 shots)
  • Boxcars: 69, 10-26-36 (led the team in assists)
  • Plus Minus: -13 on a team that was -26.
  1. What do these numbers tell us? He played at way less than 100% for most of the season. His boxcars are the kind of numbers we should expect from a player of his skill at the tail of of his career. Even with that, coach Renney didn’t really have a better option on RW to play against the tough opponents so it fell to a recovering Hemsky.
  2. How did he do? CorsiRel was good, meaning he was the best RW option available on the roster for those tough minutes. The puck was heading in the right direction, but good things weren’t happening–including shooting percentage and luck–and that should even out over time. It does speak to a lack of depth, though. Oilers should have had a stronger option so they could ease Hemsky into the tough minutes while still allowing Eberle to develop. A veteran tough minutes RW should be part of the summer shopping list.
  3. How could these numbers be better? Health. This was a very poor season for 83 based on his established level of ability, and he did not close with a flourish.
  4. Anything else? The season is a writeoff. His shooting percentage was poor, he didn’t seem to have the kind of chemistry we’ve seen in the past with men like Smyth and Gagner. Nothing rhymed.
  5. And yet you’re thrilled with the new contract? Sure. Hemsky should be healthy in the fall and if he is Edmonton will have an amazing assortment of offensive options. Seriously. Good arrows next season, good lord willing and the creek don’t rise.
  6. Eberle has passed him. Eberle had an outstanding season, but Hemsky faced tougher opposition and was one of the veterans who helped ease the kids into the NHL over the last 2 years. Eberle will have “passed” Hemsky when he plays the tougher opposition and is on the plus side of things while doing so.
  7. God, are we ever going to see an end of the “veterans did the heavy lifting” verbal? Right after the Horcoff post. Maybe.
  8. Can you be rational for a moment and talk about health concerns? Sure. Hemsky’s health is a real concern. He’s missed an enormous number of games over the last few seasons and you have to wonder if he’s ever going to reach his potential.
  9. But you’re still giddy about the signing? Sure. Should Hemsky’s health hold and he returns to form, Edmonton’s offense would be outstanding. Oilers know this player, he’s not a shrinking violet and has a proven track record as a player who can help the offense.
  10. Proven offense? Didn’t see much of that last year. Well, before last season–and let’s agree he didn’t have a good year but that there were factors that help explain it–he was very consistent. His 5×5/60 by year since 06-07 were 2.09, 2.36, 2.08, 2.85, 2.88.
  11. Why do you like him so much? He’s so incredible with the puck. I don’t know about other Oiler fans, but for me Ales Hemsky is one of the most entertaining Oilers ever. As in “history of the team” since expansion. Wonderful skill, and for many nights during the dark ages of this team’s history the one guy fans could look forward to was #83.
  12. Why ‘out of the blue and into the black’? I think Hemsky–maybe more than anyone–has paid a dear price in career terms by being an Edmonton Oiler during this era. And ‘into the black’–the kids arrival means  a more difficult role (possibly, certainly this season) for him and with less talented linemates. The lessons of Craig MacTavish made him a better player but also make him an option for a job he is perhaps not ideally suited for, skillwise. Plus the bass player in the video is killer.
  13. So you want him to be this team’s Alfredsson? No, Ryan Smyth should have that honor.
  14. What role do you see Hemsky playing? Front line role on a Stanley cup team.
  15. What? If you ask the question “can we win the Stanley with Ales Hemsky as the 1line or 2line RW?” the answer has to be yes or you don’t sign him.
  16. Do you seriously believe he’ll recover? I’m confident with the bet made by Steve Tambellini in this case and applaud the move. If it doesn’t work out, then at the very least he bet on a guy we knew and a guy who had delivered consistently over a long period of time. I think he’s a wonder.

  • NHL Prediction for 11-12: 57, 17-37-54 (.947)
  • Actual 2011: 69, 10-26-36 (.522)
  • Sublime talent

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88 Responses to "ALES HEMSKY RE 11-12: OUT OF THE BLUE AND INTO THE BLACK"

  1. BlacqueJacque says:

    This is a great new series, LT.

    But when you get to Horcoff, don’t be afraid to point out that while he did a lot of heavy lifting, it was really more like laying on the benchpress with 250lbs on top of his chest and sure, it didn’t crush him, but neither did he make progress.

    A #1 centre not only faces top competition, but he manages score while doing so.

  2. bookje says:

    Buttersoft
    Not a point a game player
    Keep waiting for him to break out – never happens
    First off the ice
    King of second assists
    Shoulder’s held together by gristle
    Bad body language

    There, that should do it, now DSF and the other trolls can have the day off.

  3. Ivan says:

    Thanks LT, I just had a chemical flashback at 6:30 in the morning. Neil Young……
    Also- Hemsky is a sublime talent, underappreciated for his fearlessness and straight up skilled.
    I’m with you, the contract is a good risk. The Oil are better with him.

  4. DBO says:

    All comes down to Hemmer being healthy. if he is, our 2nd PP just got better and suddenly teams, if lined up right, will have a hard time checking our forward units.
    I still hope for three scoring lines. Then Horcoff can be more comfortable with his role (sorry, couldn’t resist). Inaction Tambo will probably not move the pick (which I think is fine) and I hope to see some lineup like this:

    Hall-Gagner-Yakupov (Gagner is responsible enough and Hall drives the bus that this line will get top checkers)

    Harsky/MPS-Nuge-Eberle (will kill 2nd toughs)

    Smyth-Horcoff-Hemsky (will play a ton and should hold own against any line, with Hemsky making it a scoring threat every time)

    Eager-Lander/Belanger-MPS/Harsky (will do as a 4th line, whatever incarnation it happens to be)

    Jones-Petrell (can be used in bottom 6)

    The forwards will be as is plus Yak, the issue, as always will be the D.

  5. Henry says:

    Great post LT, and I love the series,

    Agree that Hemsky and Hall are the guys that pressure the defense out of position to open things up for the other stars. As much as I pretty much agree with all the slagging of Tambi over the past week, I promised to give him a break after Hemsky was resigned.

    Occasionally over the past few shitty years, I would wonder how Hemsky would look on the 1986-87 Oilers and what sort of numbers he would put up. We may get to find out now.

  6. regwald says:

    bookje:
    Buttersoft
    Not a point a game player
    Keep waiting for him to break out – never happens
    First off the ice
    King of second assists
    Shoulder’s held together by gristle
    Bad body language

    There, that should do it, now DSF and the other trolls can have the day off.

    You forgot

    Uses a kids stick.
    His stick looks like a twig

  7. stevezie says:

    My favourite blasphemous youtube highlite real ever: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sh6ALwzchY

    If He played in a major market he’d be one of the most famous players in the league.

  8. DSF says:

    bookje:
    Buttersoft
    Not a point a game player
    Keep waiting for him to break out – never happens
    First off the ice
    King of second assists
    Shoulder’s held together by gristle
    Bad body language

    There, that should do it, now DSF and the other trolls can have the day off.

    Are you familiar with the phrase “whistling past the graveyard”?

  9. rich says:

    Unless I see Traktor and DSF going at it I tend to ignore those posts – but credit where due – that was a nice response by DSF on bookje.

    I am a huge Hemsky fan, so I do give credit to v3.5 in resigning him (just not as much as Woodguy). I hope that w/all the talent that will be around him he will have the kind of year he did in 05-06 when he was healthy.

    It is essential – if the Oilers are going to compete next year – that they have capable vets producing and Hemsky when healthy fills that role.

  10. Clay says:

    bookje,

    Well, kudos for trying.

    I find it’s the fans who are still “waiting for him to break out” that were upset with Hemsky being re-signed.

    I used to be in that crowd, but a few years ago I just started enjoying him for what he is, and realize he’s a good, if not unique, player.

    Hockey is a game, after all, and if you can’t enjoy the scenery and forget about the boxcars once in a while, you’re just not getting all the enjoyment out of the game that you could be.

    It can be argued that Hemsky doesn’t produce the boxcars his skill level implies that he’s capable of, but sweet Baby Jebus, he provides Grand Canyon-like scenery.

  11. freeze says:

    Someone needs to show this video to Hemsky so he can get a bit more of his swagger back. The thing I noticed this year was he tried to dangle one too many times rather than driving the net like he has in the past.

    Hell, someone needs to start next season by showing the Oilers team what Rexall was like during the cup run. That place can rock if they give us a reason to cheer.

  12. Traktor says:

    I respect Lowetide but using BTN’s qualcomp to determine that Eberle isn’t on Hemsky level isn’t just wrong.

    You know who really faces tough comp? The unlucky bastards that have to play against Eberle every night.

    Hemsky should be better next year. I’m not sure it will be with the Oilers though.

  13. bookje says:

    DSF: Are you familiar with the phrase “whistling past the graveyard”?

    Sorry, did I wake you. Next time I wander past it, I will just hum.

  14. Jordan says:

    Considering his level of play this season, and his recent injury history, it’s very hard not to characterize the signing as one of high risk.

    However, considering his established level of play outside of this season, it’s quite clear to me that it’s also a high reward contract if it turns out – a PPG player in his prime @ 5M per is a hell of a deal.

    Its hard to argue that this isn’t one of the better moves Tambi has made, simply because of the potential for the high reward – we haven’t seen many moves that have that level of upside made by the Oilers’ GMs in a while.

    There’s a lot of things wrong with what has been done in the Oilers organization over the last decade.

    Signing Hemsky doesn’t make that list, and could make the list of really good moves, right next to the first contract extension he signed – just before they went on a cup run.

  15. Wolfie says:

    freeze:
    Someone needs to show this video to Hemsky so he can get a bit more of his swagger back. The thing I noticed this year was he tried to dangle one too many times rather than driving the net like he has in the past.

    Hell, someone needs to start next season by showing the Oilers team what Rexall was like during the cup run.That place can rock if they give us a reason to cheer.

    Take a page out of Winnipeg’s book. Make the place loud and will the team to wins. It worked for the Jets this year.

  16. art vandelay says:

    Ten goals.
    10.
    What a joke.
    No wonder the Oilers are only trailing the Leafs in consecutive playoffs missed.

  17. russ99 says:

    Gotta hand it to Tambellini. For once during the rebuild, we’re not giving away our best players. Not to mention that we’d never get fair value for Hemmer at the deadline.

    LT: Thanks for getting me back into Crazy Horse again! Such great stuff… can’t wait for the new album(s).

    I wonder who you’re going to use for “Welfare Mothers”… :)

  18. godot10 says:

    It was really Nugent-Hopkins who was being protected, not Eberle. I don’t know by mc79 and lowetide persist with the silly notion that Eberle can’t play against tougher competition. He did in his rookie season. He did when Nugent-Hopkins was out.

    Did Eberle benefit from the protection of Nugent-Hopkins giving him better zone starts, and easier home match ups? Sure. But this doesn’t mean it was Eberle who NEEDED easier zone starts, and easier home match ups.

    Do the Sedins need to be protected with the easy zone starts that Vigneault gives them?

    Eberle did fine with Hall and Horcoff as a rookie against tougher competition and tougher zone starts.

    Somebody was going to benefit from the choice to protect Nugent-Hopkins. Hemsky was actually the first choice at the start of the season, but he failed miserably to produce with the easy zone starts, so after a couple of games of Hemsky failing on Nugent-Hopkins right side, Eberle was moved there.

  19. Ducey says:

    It didn’t show up in the review in so few words, so I’ll say it: Hemsky was a major disappointment this year.

    He was down at least 30 pts this year and the Oilers were -27 in goal differential. Now I know not all his points would translate into new team goals, but a good chunk would.

    In his two best years statistically he was getting 2.5 shots per game. This year he was down to 1.99. His shot percentage was 7.30 from norms of 10.66 to 14.00.

    Hemmer’s return to form will be a huge factor in the Oilers contending for a playoff spot next year. If he bites again, they will have to make the playoffs despite him. They will not be good enough to do that.

    No pressure Ales.

  20. Jordan says:

    Wolfie,

    I definitely think you have something there guys.

    I’ve been to a number of games this year, and there’s a few things that I have sure noticed going to games over the last 3 or 4 seasons that are a big shift from how things were in the early 2ks.

    The emphasis at Rexall is not to get people cheering. During the breaks in play, TV breaks, and the period breaks, there is a huge emphasis on crappy giveaways, television spots, and ice girls/dancers/whateverthey’recalled.

    Free T-shirts don’t get me excited to be at a game – they distract me from it.

    It’s a lot like the over-produced videos that they put up on the screens at the start of the game – they make me say Ooooo… pretty… they don’t excite me and get me cheering!

    That’s not to say it hasn’t gotten loud – it sure was when RNH got his hat trick. But one of the most important things that can happen to get this team moving is to get the fans going, and it seems to me that what was once a big strength of the staff running the stuff happening in breaks at rexall is no longer a strength.

    Its probably something that management would be wise to look at – especially if they want more of that ever-coveted playoff revenue… wins sure help, and energizing your players through the crowd seems like a low-cost investment with big rewards, no?

  21. Mr DeBakey says:

    Ten goals.
    10.
    What a joke.

    You’ve heard about Shooting Percentage variance right?
    I think so, cuz you guys bitch every Effin thread about the contract Horcov signed after a season with a HIGH shooting percentage.

    Also
    Making the play-offs next season ain’t an option.
    Didn’t you hear Mr Tambourlinniman say “Nik will be back”?

    A joke indeed.

  22. bookje says:

    I think the building was appropriately loud for a 29th place team.

  23. HeavySig says:

    bookje:
    I think the building was appropriately loud for a 29th place team.

    I never whistle when I am going by Rexall.

  24. OilClog says:

    Hemsky signing was a great one, seeing him in a different jersey would be a pill I couldn’t swallow.

    Eberle at this point in his career, isn’t on Hemsky’s level. Do I think that Eb’s will regress.. No. Do I think that Eb’s will eventually pass Hemsky.. very well could. But all it takes is one big ass dirty Regher hit and Eb’s could be in the same spot Mr. Ales has been in. Then what?

    Hemsky when on top of his game is the biggest game changer we have, the kids are awesome, but they always seem to do it together. Hemsky use to do it alone, won’t have to do it alone anymore.

    People seem to forget a few seasons ago, when Hemsky was all we had, and the only target for the opposing teams. He would get run’d 10-15 times a game. The man is tough as they come, everyone is going to break when you take beatings like that. Hopefully now that we have more targets, he’ll be targeted less.

    Hemsky’s season would have to be viewed as a success compared to that last few.. even if the points weren’t there. Between being snake bitten, getting hot with Hall then Hall getting hurt, actually finishing the season in the line-up and not on the LTIR.. is fantastic. These are all awesome signs for next season.

    A confident, injury free Hemsky is one of the most dangerous weapons in the game.

    LT.. sometimes I post like a douche, but I love this site! keep up the good work. I won’t have a positive post though when it comes to Horc. He’s a bum.

  25. bill needle says:

    Sure, veterans like Hemsky do the heavy lifting, but the results in the win column show they’ve done a terrible job of it.
    The “products” of Hemsky’s heavy lifting prowess: First overall pick, first overall pick, first overall pick.

  26. gd says:

    Hemsky and his injuries might be a close runner up for the MVP of this historic run that might have the Oilers be the team of the teens.

    I like Hemsky, but I can’t help but think that some of this franchise’s struggles are a byproduct of his “first off the ice at practice” act. I’m a big believer that teams take the lead in how hard their best players work whether they have the C or not, and I feel confident the Young guns have the hard work DNA that unfortunately Ales did not. I hope he can be a Hossa like support player for the next two years, and if he’s not he will be as relevant to this team’s playoff runs as BJ McDonald was. His salary is nothing more than money out of Katz’s as we will not be a cap team until RNH’s next contract and we’ll still have the room to bid on Weber/Getzlaf/Staal next year, so let’s just “enjoy” Ales because who knows he might score the goal that gets us into the playoff sin the next two years.

  27. OilClog says:

    gd,

    REALLY?!?! first off the ice is why we’ve been in the basement??? really?? DAMN YOU ALES! If only you would of stayed on the ice longer in practice, we wouldn’t of traded Gilbert!!

  28. gd says:

    OilClog:
    gd,

    REALLY?!?! first off the ice is why we’ve been in the basement??? really?? DAMN YOU ALES! If only you would of stayed on the ice longer in practice, we wouldn’t of traded Gilbert!!

    Hey I’m just saying it doesn’t help. I know there were tons of other causes with a lot of them being in management, but it has never been good optics that Ales was always first off.

  29. rickithebear says:

    DBO:

    XXX-RNH-Eberle
    XXX-Hall-Yakupov
    the concept of a poor mans Gretzky-Kurri and Messier-Anderson is a good concept.

    Gretz-kurri had a physical LW .

    Ben Eager averaged .95 EVG/60 last 4 years.
    He wa .90EVG/60 ahead of
    this year that would be around Lupul, Tavares, Marleau, Semin, Couture production rate.
    gets you 18-20 EVG.
    What is his production rate fed by RNH.
    Eager can out skate.

    Belanger and jones were both top 10 in Pk for there position.
    We went from 29th to 14th.
    Dumping them is not an option.
    Finding a Strong PK and FO center who is 1.5+EVP/60.
    Played on the 4th with Belanger and Jones. allowing for a strong FO prescence even on the second draw.
    that way we have two top 20 PK centers for our Pk base
    Gaustad
    Stoll

    As for hemsky;
    tough minutes w/ ……
    he has played toughs 3 years and averaged 2.36EVP/60
    a 42P EV season w/ 77games played.
    2nd PP unit so 20% less pp points than historical.
    Expect 2.4 Min/GM @ 3.67P/60 12-14P
    he is a 52-58 point player playing toughs and 77 games.
    It all depends on games played.

    Eager-RNH-Eberle
    XXX-Hall-Yakupov
    XXX-XXX-Hemsky
    Belanger-XXX-Jones

  30. bookje says:

    I hear that Cam Barker is STILL sitting on the ice at Rexall today and that he refuses to leave. Damn, I cannot believe that the Oiler have not signed that guy to another contract.

  31. TheOtherJohn says:

    Expect its even money Barker resigns with us. As unbelievable as that sounds

  32. rickithebear says:

    A line from NHL article that i finally found.

    “A decade before, Montreal Canadiens coach Scotty Bowman had scrapped the traditional hockey thinking of three-man lines. Bowman liked to pair two compatible players and often used the vacant spot as a motivational tool among others. Play good, play with Messier. Play bad, drop down the depth chart.”

    The concept of dynamic pairs is often discussed here.

    it is readilly apparent 4 5.5M can exist cap wise on a team.

    Obvious from above comments that
    XXX-rnh-eberle
    Hall-XXX-yakupov
    are the desired pairs.

    Tobias rieder is generating a 18 year old season like Yakupov, Seguin, Hall, Tavares, Stamkos, kane.

    The belief may be that 5’11″ 190LB rieder is the 30G RW with hall rather than 5’11″ 190LB Yakupov.

  33. MrSmitty says:

    Rickithebear,

    If Reider is the 30 G RW with Hall why not a trio and pair???

    Yakupov-RNH-Eberle
    Hall-XXX-Reider

  34. cabbiesmacker says:

    I look forward to a couple of things. The day the Oilers are competitive enough that management doesn’t have to ponder over signing / re-signing / overpaying certain players because they happen to be the best WE have around or can attract and,

    "Steve Smith": Might want to have a look at that band’s lineup.

    Not sure what you’re saying here Steveo.

    Neil Young wasn’t a member of Buffalo Springfield?

    Neil Young wasn’t a member of Buffalo Springfield when this song was released?

    Enlighten me perhaps?

  35. Dipstick says:

    Wrt player pairings or lines, we do know that RNH and Eberle have shown chemistry. Assuming that Reider or Yakupov will have chemistry with anyone is foolish.

  36. fuzzy muppet says:

    I’ m pretty sure RNH is going to have chemistry with every player.

    That kid is special.

    Watching Yakupov rip one timers on the internet has had me smiling since Tuesday Night.

  37. Traktor says:

    I was looking on HF today and there is an interesting poll on what to do with the 1st overall pick:

    Draft Yakupov – 167 votes

    Trade down in the draft – 2 votes (one of them with the screen name “letsgoflames”)

    Trade the pick for an established player – 4 votes

    Oiler fans: Doan! Doan! Doan! Doan! Doan!

    Gary Bettman: We have a trade to announce. The Edmonton Oilers trade the 1st overall pick to..

  38. bendelson says:

    He’s still young but does Josh Bailey fit the 3rd line RW position with the ability to PK on the 2nd unit at C? He likely still has visions of a 2nd line role but to my eye he seems attainable with upside, able to move around the lineup where needed, with a good head for the game. Not a bad fit.

    I draft Yakupov given the choice but let me ask: does this trade make sense?

    NYI – 1st overall and Gagner
    EDM-4th overall, Bailey and Hamonic?

    Bailey fills in at C until Galchenyuk (Oilers take at 4) is ready – then he moves into a Dvorak role.

  39. hunter1909 says:

    KLowe came out and contradicted Tambo’s idiotic bubbly “we might trade Yakupov away because I’m really no more than a total ass” type thing.

    When 97% of the fans want Yakupov, giving Oiler’s a four way super attack…you don’t suddenly go all Cam Barker.

  40. Ducey says:

    NYI – 1st overall and Gagner
    EDM-4th overall, Bailey and Hamonic?

    Everything I have read on Bailey says he is not a great skater and gives inconsistent effort. How about replacing him with Brock Nelson? (I’d start out asking from Strome but I am sure the phone would go dead) Nelson’s a guy with size and perhaps more upside than Bailey.

    I am sure Captain Obvious will be by soon to tell us all these guys suck and that we are all idiots.

  41. hunter1909 says:

    Ducey: Everything I have read on Bailey says he is not a great skater and gives inconsistent effort.

    Compared to Yakupov, pretty well everyone not named Doughty/Weber come out of the wash as a significant downgrade.

    If the management really has a plan(as they claim), why should the acquisition of Yakupov force their hand into suddenly changing what I’ve bought into as a measured, patient rebuild?

  42. Jordan says:

    hunter1909,

    I have three reactions to this statement:

    Optimist:
    The Oilers have just had an unexpected windfall and will find the best way to leverage this highly valueable asset.

    Realist:
    The Oilers have just had an unexpected windfall and will work hard not to screw up getting it by selecting Yakupov.

    Cynic:
    The Oilers have just had an unexpected windfall and will now have to give it away or use it poorly, otherwise the rest of the old men in the Old boys club that run the NHL will collude to destroy the team that trying to lose builds, just like they ruined hockey in the 90s after the Oilers (and others) were too successful and the rules were changed to slow the game down.

  43. cabbiesmacker says:

    bendelson:
    He’s still young but does Josh Bailey fit the 3rd line RW position with the ability to PK on the 2nd unit at C?He likely still has visions of a 2nd line role but to my eye he seems attainable with upside, able to move around the lineup where needed, with a good head for the game.Not a bad fit.
    I draft Yakupov given the choice but let me ask:does this trade make sense?
    NYI – 1st overall and Gagner
    EDM-4th overall, Bailey and Hamonic?

    Bailey fills in at C until Galchenyuk (Oilers take at 4) is ready – then he moves into a Dvorak role.

    Wouldn’t touch Bailey and doubtful the Islanders would give up their best young D any more than the Oilers would give up Hall or Eberle BUT, I would take a long look at a Strome, Poulin, swap, + for the pick being you’d still have a crack at a pretty good D (Trouba, Reilly, Reinhart, ) at 4.

    Strome – Hamonic – Poulin for Gagner + pick I do in a heartbeat and I take a long look at Samuelsson with my second.

  44. ashley says:

    I missed some of the discussion over the past few days. Trading the first overall pick? Wow.

    Proposals included Schenn and #5 (a roll of the dice on some blueliner pick that might have a 50% chance of working out) on sure bets Yakupov and Gagner?

    From my understanding, reading, and discussion with an amateur scout for the Canucks (albeit a couple of months ago now), the drop off in talent from Yakupov to the rest of the 2012 draft class is very very steep. Therefore any package that takes away a sure bet elite talent from the Oilers better have a LOT of established NHL talent. Even bluechip prospects are not going to cut it especially defencemen prospects (gambling and no team really trades an elite blueliner prospect…only previously deemed elite blueliner prospects that aren’t panning out). And most definitely goaltenders prospects are not going to cut it (total crapshoot).

    You can’t ever trade for players like Yakupov. Unless you are a team trading with the Edmonton Oilers? Just think of the collective Oilerfan cringe as we watch a special player develop, dazzle, and dominate in Toronto or Montreal. #5D Luke Schenn and Reinhart (if he makes it) would be cold comfort. Throwing in Gagner would add insult.

    I’m not sure why there is so much interest in blueliners for the Oil in this draft. So many top picked blueliners never cover their draft bet. Look at Jay Bouw or Johnson from some years back now. NHL’ers, sure. Top 10 draft picks though?

    So many good defencemen come from elsewhere in the draft…or out of nowhere. Look at the Flames Giordano for example.

    Plus we have loads of blueliners in our system. Some of them are going to work out. Probably one of them, statistically speaking, is going to really surprise us.

    I just proofread the above, and it seems that Friday the 13th has me in an ornery mood. Have a great weekend.

  45. nathan says:

    @OilersNow

    Lowe on #1 pick: “When you have that pick, you’re so much in the driver’s seat. We’re picking one. We’re gonna select one… If another team wants to come to us and absolutely knock our socks off, well, have at ‘er.”

  46. ASkoreyko says:

    I think everyone should listen to that 630ched interview with Lowe. It makes it pretty clear they have no real intention of moving Yakupov for anything except for the moon.

    The focus should now be on getting Schultz to sign on the dotted line.

  47. bookje says:

    ASkoreyko:
    I think everyone should listen to that 630ched interview with Lowe. It makes it pretty clear they have no real intention of moving Yakupov for anything except for the moon.

    The focus should now be on getting Schultz to sign on the dotted line.

    Well its clear that Lowe doesn’t, but he’s not the GM. Then again, the team has no GM signed right now.

    I wonder if the deal Tabellini gave Renney (come back in two weeks and tell me how you will do better in the future) is the same that Katz and Lowe gave him?

  48. ASkoreyko says:

    bookje: Well its clear that Lowe doesn’t, but he’s not the GM.Then again, the team has no GM signed right now.

    I wonder if the deal Tabellini gave Renney (come back in two weeks and tell me how you will do better in the future) is the same that Katz and Lowe gave him?

    He might not be the official GM but I have a feeling a decision as big as this will involve the entire “brain trust” (I really can’t use those words more lightly) and I imagine Lowe still has a lot of pull (5 cups!). I also might be reading to much into it since I really want to pick Yakupov, but it is still something to go off.

    They owe us a player like Yakupov after another terrible season of hockey, I am pretty sure no one was thinking to themselves all year “This terrible hockey will all be worth it once we see Schenn and Reinhart in Oiler silks”. Yakupov will soothe the pain.

  49. "Steve Smith" says:

    ASkoreyko: I imagine Lowe still has a lot of pull (5 cups!).

    Six, you insolent knave!

  50. ASkoreyko says:

    “Steve Smith”: Six, you insolent knave!

    I guess that is why its best to spell out a number, less chance of a mistake. Hard to mis-spell six. Sive? Fixe?

  51. "Steve Smith" says:

    Leroy gives the good guys the lead after period 1.

  52. FastOil says:

    Despite Hemsky’s health concerns, without an obvious even or better deal, a team has to keep him. Collect more good players, right? Same with the #1, same with Gagner. Either a serious quality player comes back, or take the pick or keep the player. Whomever gets the best player wins the trade. Lesser players can be found. Gilbert – lose.

    Yakupov or whoever can be dealt at a later date, and have great value if handled correctly. Find some scouts who can discern defensemen. Some teams seem to find them. We need them and if homegrown all the better. Pro and Am scouts, and statisticians are the place to spend money at the moment. Find quality, and quality will have more than one aspect to it.

  53. FastOil says:

    And trade for Sean Couturier ASAP.

  54. DSF says:

    Dustin Brown is a bad, bad man.

  55. oilers89 says:

    ashley,

    Great, Great post. The idea of trading Yakupov for “Theo” Schenn is a terrible idea. Give me a signed Weber and I will think about it.

  56. cabbiesmacker says:

    DSF:
    Dustin Brown is a bad, bad man.

    Hey Natalie Imbruglia? You have to be a little torn yes? A small victory possible here….a beatdown in a series you really needed to win.

    Duncan Keith

  57. cabbiesmacker says:

    FastOil:
    Andtrade for Sean Couturier ASAP.

    It is entirely possible, however unlikely, that the Oilers got it wrong in 2010 AND 2011. Ya just never know.

  58. commonfan14 says:

    Hughson and Simpson have too many great moments to count in this clip:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rzwYVfvDfVo.

  59. DSF says:

    cabbiesmacker: It is entirely possible, however unlikely, that the Oilers got it wrong in 2010 AND 2011. Ya just never know.

    It’s actually quite likely.

  60. DSF says:

    cabbiesmacker: Hey Natalie Imbruglia? You have to be a little torn yes? A small victory possible here….a beatdown in a series you really needed to win.

    Duncan Keith

    Nope.

    I thought the Kings were very, very solid after adding Carter.

    One of the best constructed teams in the league.

    Build from the goalie out…works every time.

    Lombardi is no fool.

  61. Dipstick says:

    Couturier will get more playoff goals this year, But RNH will attract more chicks with his smile. ;)

  62. DSF says:

    Dustin Brown is a very, very, very bad man.

  63. LMHF#1 says:

    Burrows going after the goalie…if I ever meet that man in real life, I will call him a piece of crap to his face. What a waste of skin.

    I fully expect him to then glance around, attempt to hide behind the non-existent referee, then attempt a nut-shot.

  64. oilers89 says:

    It is funny that anyone could suggest that the Oil made the wrong choice on RNH because Couturier had ONE big game. This conversation should not even happen at this point IMO.

  65. Ducey says:

    Kings up 2-0 and going home. Beautiful!

  66. Lowetide says:

    the surprise for me is that the Canucks are losing these games by playing stupid hockey. Wow.

  67. Schitzo says:

    So this may be a silly theory that ranks up there with “body language”, but how likely is it that part of Hemsky’s struggles were mental and due to the sword of Damocles dangling for the first 50 games?

  68. cabbiesmacker says:

    oilers89:
    It is funny that anyone could suggest that the Oil made the wrong choice on RNH because Couturier had ONE big game. This conversation should not even happen at this point IMO.

    One big game or one good season? Had a look at Couturier’s stats in comparison?

    Nugent Hopkins 5 x 5 pts per 60 mins = 1.98

    Sean Couturier 5 x 5 pts per 60 mins = 1.81

    Huge difference huh?

    Nugent Hopkins Offensive Zone Starts = 62.5%

    Sean Couturier Offensive Zone Starts = 40.3 %

    Hmmm. Looks like the Nuge had a bit of an advantage there

    Nugent Hopkins played with better quality teammates against weaker competition.

    Nugent Hopkins -2

    Sean Couturier +18

    Total time on ice between the two players is almost identical HOWEVER

    Nugent Hopkins PP Ice Time = 186.45

    Sean Couturier PP Ice Time = 34.32

    Nugent Hopkins SH Ice Time = 2.00 mins

    Sean Couturier SH Ice Time = 207.41

    Nugent Hopkins FO % = 37.5

    Sean Couturier FO % = 47

    I like Nugent Hopkins just fine thanks but if you think he’s heads and tails over Couturier well…he’s just not. I’d love to have seen what Couturier might have put up with Eberle on his wing the entire season, Hall for a good portion, and that amount of PP time.

    Yes it’s far too early to judge but given the circumstances Couturier’s making a decent case for himself.

  69. slopitch says:

    Getzlaf also had 10 goals last year. And he’s a superior player. It’s an outrage but it’s an opportunity. Keep Hemsky. Buy low on Getz :)

  70. TheOtherJohn says:

    Last year before draft LT interviewed Couturier’s head coach in Q and guy absolutely raved about SC defensive capabilities. At time thought coach was blowing up the tires of his guy. Clearly he was not. He is in a stopper role on Philly. In the playoffs. Love to have him on Oil. Love to! Not at expense of RNH. As our big bodied 2C center. Jagr comparing his defensive awareness to Ron Francis was very high praise indeed. Jagr would have known Francis when he was already a savvy vet not a 19 year old kid

  71. Ryan says:

    Hey everyone,

    I missed the Pens game last night–had to work :(

    Obviously Couturier had an amazing game. How did he look? Foot speed?

    Maybe LT had it right though it’s too early to call. :)

    Have to agree with Cabbie Smacker about the difference in how the ice was slanted for the Nuge vs. Couturier.

    Hard not to think about:

    Yak – Seguin — Eberle
    XXX – Couturier – Hemsky

    Hindsight is 20/20, but with Seguin / Couturier, one could reasonably argue that we’d be set down the middle for the next ten years +

    Question: why does the Nail play on his off wing (RW)? Does he have a history of also playing LW?

  72. jimbones100 says:

    Woulda, coulda, shoulda what a waste of time.

  73. stevezie says:

    Are we really so obsessed with unhappiness that we are second-guessing picking RNH? We’ve become that in love with our own sadness that we’re finding ways to complain about RNH just because Couturier is also good?

    Look, getting the first overall pick does not guarentee you the best player in the draft. In any given year there are going to be a handful of dominant players. They’re going to be spread around the seven rounds. What picking first should guarentee you is that you get one of those guys. There often won’t even be a consensus “best” one.

    Let’s not act like the Oilers should have known better, either. Hall and RNH seemed like the best players to almost everyone, so we took them. If there is now a debate, well that’s part of life.

    I mean… it’s never enough for some people. That perfect player, wife, life etc. doesn’t exist. If you get a really good one enjoy it. Stop Coveting your neighbour’s rookie.

  74. jimbones100 says:

    If I have to read the belly aching everytime one of the other players from the last two drafts has a good game it is going to be tiresome. The Oilers took the top rated player both years. And yes there are lots of great players that will come out of those drafts.

  75. fuzzy muppet says:

    Jesus, over-react much?? Every scout was saying Couterier was NHL ready physically. No one thought RNH would make it past 9 games.

    I understand the math is nice for Couterier, but he had 27 points. RNH doubles that total in less games, is nearly a full year younger and has a child’s body compared to Couterier at this point.

    It’s not close…I don’t care what fancy math you through out.

    You can find big centers that can play defense, you can’t find top flight OFFENSE very easily. He’s fucking 18 years old (though the old man turns 19 soon!).

  76. gd says:

    stevezie,

    Completely agree, though if I’m a Jets, Islanders or Senator fan I’m might asking some questions of my scouting director.

  77. hunter1909 says:

    It would seriously take an Oiler fan with the brain capacity of a chicken to diss RNH with regard to any 2011 draft pick.

  78. justDOit says:

    Maybe too late for this, as the discussion has shifted off course to RNH/Couterier, but…

    Isn’t sheltering a player (Ebs) the same thing as line matching to increase chances of scoring? You can view it as sheltering, but I call it coaching.

  79. "Steve Smith" says:

    justDOit,

    It’s both, obviously. What point are you trying to make?

  80. cabbiesmacker says:

    hunter1909:
    It would seriously take an Oiler fan with the brain capacity of a chicken to diss RNH with regard to any 2011 draft pick.

    Perhaps reading comp. isn’t your forte Hunter1909? If me saying “It’s entirely possible that the Oilers got things wrong” is a diss then you read to see what you want to see without looking past the words for meaning. Note the word “possible.”

    Besides, it makes for a little controversy and some discussion. I’m sure you already know what that’s all about right? No need for this to be a room full of lemmings all headed for the same cliff.

    Kudos to LT for being a believer in this kid last year and to ME for taking him in my keeper pool.

  81. cabbiesmacker says:

    fuzzy muppet:
    Jesus, over-react much?? Every scout was saying Couterier was NHL ready physically.No one thought RNH would make it past 9 games.

    I understand the math is nice for Couterier, but he had 27 points.RNH doubles that total in less games, is nearly a full year younger and has a child’s body compared to Couterier at this point.

    It’s not close…I don’t care what fancy math you through out.

    I didn’t mean to “through” out fancy math. Just a little perspective.

    Do get back to me though if both of RNH and Hall spend significant time on the IR over the next few years.

  82. ashley says:

    Couturier had a nice game, but it’s a lot more than that. He’s been solid all year. A very good defensive centreman with offensive upside and mediocre foot speed…exactly as he was billed before the draft.

    I think if any of the teams could have seen the future and known that he would fall to #8, they all would have been much more aggressive with a package for the #8 pick from Columbus. It was unexpected, even perplexing (particularly the Jets pick…though it looks like Schiefle will be a player), but an absolute windfall for Philly. EDM was apparently in the running for a deal with Columbus as Howson loves Hemsky (rumoured to be a part of such a deal at the time). However when Philly came forward with Carter, Hemsky plus wasn’t that interesting anymore.

    It’s still fun to dream though…RNH and Couturier in one foul swoop. I love Hemsky, but that would have been nice. Really nice.

    Can you imagine the value Howson could have extracted for that pick if he had waited to make a deal at the draft table? Hindsight is particularly painful for him and the C-bus fanbase as Carter is already long gone.

  83. oilers89 says:

    cabbiesmacker,

    I am in the same boat as others here. I don’t care about underlying stats because RNH put up elite numbers (basically) all year. Come talk to me when Couturier puts up close to a PPG. I think Couturier is a very good player, but the Oilers made the right choice.

  84. oilers89 says:

    Also the zone starts are a non issue. RNH is not good at face offs and was the Oilers best offensive center man, both of these things lead to high offensive zone starts, and I am not surprised that a big, defensively touted center man received more defensive zone draws. When RNH puts on some weight and gets some experience he will start in the D-zone more often.

  85. cabbiesmacker says:

    oilers89:
    cabbiesmacker,

    I am in the same boat as others here. I don’t care about underlying stats because RNH put up elite numbers (basically) all year. Come talk to me when Couturier puts up close to a PPG. I think Couturier is a very good player, but the Oilers made the right choice.

    Gee, I wonder what sort of “elite” numbers Couturier might have put up with the PP time RNH got? Then I wonder how many more he’d have put up with Eberle the entire season, Hall for 65% of it, Ryan Smyth, etc etc. and getting the types of zone starts RNH received.

    Quite conceiveable they’d have been right together in points.

    Right choice in your opinion of course. I’m sure Philly is quite happy.

  86. cabbiesmacker says:

    oilers89:
    Also the zone starts are a non issue. RNH is not good at face offs and was the Oilers best offensive center man, both of these things lead to high offensive zone starts, and I am not surprised that a big, defensively touted center man received more defensive zone draws.When RNH puts on some weight and gets some experience he will start in the D-zone more often.

    So many inaccuracies. So little time. Good to know that zone starts and who you’re playing against are non issues though. Helps explain why Renney seldom sent RNH over the boards when the puck was in the Oilers end …hey wait

  87. oilers89 says:

    Like I said come talk to me when Couturier puts up RNH like point totals. Do you honestly think that every player produces like RNH does on the powerplay? Others do not even if Couturiers look good it is a small sample size. If Tambo got high, phoned Holmgren and said “Hey I will give you RNH for Couturier.” Holmgren is not going to say no, in fact he will probably die of happiness and think that Tambellini is the dumbest man on the planet. No they would not be right together in points, if we are going into maybe’s lets say maybe if RNH was 6’4 and basically 200 pounds he would have scored twice as many as he did. Lets be realistic and not go into maybes.

  88. oilers89 says:

    cabbiesmacker,

    You can make any excuse that you want, but at the end of the day this season Landeskog and RNH were the rookies to beat, and Couturier was never in the conversation.

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