Reasonable Expectations Preview

Every fall (well summer, really) I post reasonable expectations. It isn’t an attempt to “guess what they’ll do” but rather set a line in the sand for each player in terms of playing time, status on the roster, and boxcars.

How did RE do this year?

Over the next few weeks, I’ll do a post on each player and their overall performance. Tonight, I’d like to focus on the gifted kids. Their specific RE review is coming, but on a day when we could use some good news (no Tambellini signing yet!) here goes:

  • Taylor Hall NHL prediction for 11-12: 70, 32-28-60 (.857)
  • Taylor Hall actual numbers for 11-12: 61, 27-26-53 (.869)

Considering what we know now (he was dealing with an ongoing injury) those numbers are superb. His advanced numbers are good and heading in a very good direction, and as we’ve seen since his injury buddy opens up a lot of real estate for the  others. A true marvel.

  • Jordan Eberle NHL prediction for 11-12: 82, 22-30-52 (.634)
  • Jordan Eberle actual numbers for 11-12: 76, 33-42-75 (.987)

What a season! Just outside the league’s top 10 in scoring and the 2nd best offensive player in the NW division. Duplicating these numbers may be a challenge, but a sublime season from a cerebral talent.

  • RNH NHL prediction for 11-12: 63gp, 11-23-34 (.540) 
  • RNH actual numbers for 11-12: 60, 18-33-51 (.850)

Lordy. 18-years old and he posted a strong offensive season. The Nuge’s powerplay prowess is stunning and his ability to make plays in tight places inspiring.

This year’s REs have extremes at both ends, but if you’re looking for sunshine on a cloudy day these three are money.

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23 Responses to "Reasonable Expectations Preview"

  1. voxwah says:

    Oilers fans can always use a little sunshine. Thanks LT.

  2. Jesse says:

    LT,

    I have two different questions for you — feel free to respond at your leisure:

    1. I’ve heard you mention on a couple of different occasions the way Jordan Eberle changes his angle right before he shoots. Could you elaborate on this? Are you referring to the angle of his stance/hips? Or possibly the angle of his stick blade from receiving the puck to releasing it?

    2. This question is in light of the possibility of a coach like Todd Nelson/Dallas Eakins replacing Tom Renney (whether that possibility is slight or not is another matter). Do coaches who move up from the AHL to the NHL have an adjustment period? It would seem to me that while the learning curve of a coach making this jump wouldn’t be perfectly proportionate to the development curve of a player making this jump, it seems likely that it would take longer than most oiler fans would like (> five minutes??) for one of these talented AHL coaches to be effective behind the Oilers bench.

  3. Brett Gee says:

    Yes, all of these fellows sure did make it through with some nice numbers. It’s too bad they all missed time as well.

    Boy oh boy, does this team look weak without Taylor Hall. Surgery today, I believe. Let’s hope he’s smart about recovering.

    Now for Nuge and Eberle to contribute to Team Canada, then into the weight room. It will be nice for them to get bigger/stronger this Summer.

    The other guy I am thinking about is Gagner. I really hope he can find another gear somewhere. He disappears too much. Other times he looks like a leader and an impact player.

    Playoff hockey and opening day baseball… It’s the most wonderful time of the year. Go Sens, go Giants!

  4. Lowetide says:

    Jesse:

    1. Eberle does this thing where he makes a small lateral move just before he shoots and changes the angle ever so slightly. I started to notice it last year because he seemed to be getting a lot of shots through to the net compared to what my eyes expected. He also has a very quick release and does seem to shoot the puck either before or after you expect him too. He’s sneaky with the puck.

    2. I think the Oilers would probably put Nelson/Eakins with a veteran guy, someone who maybe had some head coaching experience in the past. And maybe the answer is they bring Nelson up and allow him to adjust to the team and flush Renney on a cold winter’s morn in Buffalo during January 2013. But Nelson was an NHL asst coach so I don’t know that much would surprise him.

  5. Jesse says:

    Lowetide,

    Now that you mention it, I think I know what you mean (re: eberle). Almost like a bit of a toe drag stance/movement. I’ll have to watch some highlights to get a better idea.

    Appreciate the response. :)

  6. bookje says:

    It’s too bad that everyone else other than DD endear performed – some subtantially so.

  7. Ducey says:

    bookje:
    It’s too bad that everyone else other than DD endear performed – some subtantially so.

    So they did not endear themselves to you?

    I’d say Petry, Smid, Potter, Petrell and Sutton exceeded expectations. Jones and Smyth met expectations.

  8. Ducey says:

    Toronto’s OT loss guarantees the Oilers a spot in the lottery.

  9. bookje says:

    Ducey: So they did not endear themselves to you?

    I’d say Petry, Smid, Potter, Petrell and Sutton exceeded expectations. Jones andSmyth metexpectations.

    True – I guess I was being unfair. Now Hemsky, Horcoff, Belanger, Eagar, Whitney, and others were less successful.

  10. jimbones100 says:

    Unfair or ignorant

  11. "Steve Smith" says:

    Ducey,

    I’d say that Smyth and Jones exceeded my expectations, and Sutton roughly met them (I had higher expectations going in than did most of the Oilogosphere). In fact, because everybody is deeply curious, here’s my approximate list:

    Exceeded expectations:

    Eberle
    Hall
    Nugent-Hopkins
    Smyth
    Jones
    Petry
    Potter
    Smid
    Dubnyk
    Khabibulin*

    Met expectations:

    Gagner
    Gilbert
    Sutton
    Pettrell*
    Lander*
    Hordichuk*
    Barker*

    Fell short of expectations:

    Hemsky
    Horcoff**
    Whitney
    Belanger
    Eager
    Pajaarvi***
    Peckham
    Omark***

    From my perspective, the problem isn’t that too many guys fell short of expectations, it’s that we didn’t have enough cause for high expectations to begin with.

    * My expectations of these players were so low that the only way they could have fallen short of them would have been if they cross-checked Nugent-Hopkins from behind and given him a career-ending concussion. (Season-ending would have been in the range.)
    ** I didn’t expect him to justify his contract, but I expected him to come a little closer than he did.
    *** Part of this is on coaching/management, for sure, but I expected these guys to hold NHL jobs, and they didn’t. And regardless of whether they were better than Pettrell or Hordichuk or whoever was taking their spot (which they were), they evidently weren’t enough better for Renney to be forced into playing them.

  12. bookje says:

    I was just thinking about the Omark situation. I wonder how much of his short rope has to do with him staying in the SEL when the team wanted him to come to the AHL at age 21 or 22?

  13. Kert says:

    "Steve Smith":
    Ducey,

    * My expectations of these players were so low that the only way they could have fallen short of them would have been if they cross-checked Nugent-Hopkins from behind and given him a career-ending concussion.(Season-ending would have been in the range.)

    What about stomping on Hall’s face with a skate on? The effort’s there at least.

  14. bookje says:

    Kert: What about stomping on Hall’s face with a skate on?The effort’s there at least.

    That was Correy Potter

  15. Kert says:

    bookje,

    I know, I just thought he might earn a special asterisk if injuring our franchise players was part of the the requirements.. :)

  16. bookje says:

    Kert:
    bookje,

    I know, I just thought he might earn a special asterisk if injuring our franchise players was part of the the requirements..

    Gotcha – missed the relevance to the crosschecking RNH statement.

  17. oilersfan says:

    not sure if anyone cares by Martin Marincin played his first game for OKC this season tonight. No points but was plus 2 in a 3-0 shutout of Hamilton. Pitlick and Paajarvi both with an assist.

  18. oilersfan says:

    On another topic the Quebec Remparts will play the Halifax Mooseheads starting Friday in the QJMHL playoffs.

    Grigorenko plays for Quebec and Halifax features late first round prospect Martin Frk and the 2013 expected first overall Sydney Crosby clone Nathan MacKinnon. Should be interesting to see how Grigorenko performs against a better team. He had 1+6+7 in 4 games the last series against a poor Drummondville team that Quebec blew out most nights. Word is he doesn’t try in the blowouts as they games don’t stoke too many competitive fires when the scores are 7-2 type thing.

  19. nelson88 says:

    Roy with a 1GA first star performance to lead Stockton over Colorado. I think Bunz is a better prospect but will be interesting to see how Roy performs in the playoffs. He has been one of the top goalies in the ECHL this year but history would indicate he tends to choke when put in a pressure situation he should succeed in.

    Seemingly if he can fix his confidence issues there might be something there but I guess you could say that about a large percentage of goalies.

  20. Alice says:

    Wrt Jesse’s question with the “shooting angle”, LT’s exactly right: he delays a bit and moves off his line. Think about what you hear when a goalie’s doing well, they say he’s getting square to the shooter. Eberle unsquares himself a bit and sees what’s there, rather than just shoot quickly and hope to beat the goaltender. A very cool head in a fast game.

  21. Ducey says:

    oilersfan:
    not sure if anyone cares by Martin Marincin played his first game for OKC this season tonight. No points but was plus 2 in a 3-0 shutout of Hamilton. Pitlick and Paajarvi both with an assist.

    Tyrvainen also with a shorthanded goal and boarding penalty. He has 5 pts in his last 4 games. Might be the little Finnish ball of hate the Oilers need in their bottom 6.

  22. Woodguy says:

    Alice:
    Wrt Jesse’s question with the “shooting angle”, LT’s exactly right: he delays a bit and moves off his line. Think about what you hear when a goalie’s doing well, they say he’s getting square to the shooter. Eberle unsquares himself a bit and sees what’s there, rather than just shoot quickly and hope to beat the goaltender. A very cool head in a fast game.

    There are 75 seconds per minute in Eberle’s world, the rest of us get 60.

    Knows exactly how much time he has and makes moves in no space as a matter of course.

    Giant head.

    Can’t wait until he starts applying all that to his own zone and stops bleeding chances against.

    Special player.

  23. russ99 says:

    bookje:
    I was just thinking about the Omark situation.I wonder how much of his short rope has to do with him staying in the SELwhen the team wanted him to come to the AHL at age 21 or 22?

    I doubt Tambellini shoulders much of the blame on the Omark issue,

    He wouldn’t have called him up from OKC and pass the waiver threshold to sit in the press box, and Renney is the one who doesn’t like his “attitude” and/or “compete level”…

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