RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS 11-12: WINTERLONG
In the beginning, it looked for all the world like someone had left their 12-year old at the rink. We waited forever for our blessed center and he sits at the kids table? By Christmas we knew the boy was touched by God, equal parts craft, patience, brilliance and touch. His home? 5×4.
RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS 11-12 (all numbers courtesy behind the net and nhl.com)
- 5×5 points per 60: 1.98 (3rd among regular forwards)
- 5×4 points per 60: 7.30 (1st among regular forwards, 1st in NHL)
- Qual Comp: 4th toughest among regular forwards
- Qual Team: 2nd best teammates among regular forwards
- Corsi Rel: 5.6 (6th best among regular forwards)
- Zone Start: 62.5% (easiest among regular forwards)
- Zone Finish: 53.6% (2nd best among regular forwards)
- Shots on goal/percentage: 134/18 13.4% (2nd among F’s>100 shots)
- Boxcars: 62gp, 18-34-52 .839
- Plus Minus: -2 on a team that was -26
- What do these numbers tell us? He’s (I believe Tyler Dellow coined it) a “witch” on the powerplay. Sustainable? Hell I’m not sure I believe what I just saw! The kid can find seams and pass the puck through the eye of a needle. When he was injured I missed him awful, because I’d grown accustomed to those wonderful passes.
- How can the Oilers get more out of him? Play him 6 minutes a night on the powerplay. Seriously. At least have him play Kovalchuk PP minutes.
- He was average 5×5.He clearly saw incredible offensive zone starts and a home push qual comp but overall the QC wasn’t crazy easy (although slightly easier than Hall/Ebs as rookies) and certainly in the second half of the season he faced tougher opponents. It’s the 93rd best 5×5/60 number for forwards who played north of 40 games, and a better number than Hall or Eberle posted a year ago (although they’re all close). His 1.98/60 is better than Landeskog (1.74) but the Colorado winger played the toughest available minutes.
- So, below average? Not at all. This is a splendid hockey player and his NHL debut has him in the Calder race–he might win it although Landeskog had a brilliant season too.
- So Landeskog gets the Calder? I’d give it to the Nuge based on that 5×4 number but am biased. Oilers don’t win post-season awards–if they didn’t reward Pisani they’re never going to reward an Oiler without a dangling Stanley–but I’d give the award to RNH.
- He flagged toward the end. The team slowed and the PP’s dried up, but the kid still delivered a quality rookie season including an enormous 5×4 number. The fact that he didn’t perform as well in the season’s final leg shouldn’t come as a huge surprise based on age and of course he was returning from injury.
- What is his achilles? His road splits. RNH at home–where coach Renney can give him a push–went 30, 13-21-34 +7 at Rexall and 32, 5-13-18 -9 on the road. If you’re going to carve him, this is the place to start.
- Is that unusual? Hall was better on the road as a rookie, Eberle about even. I don’t think RNH’s road number is a major deal and it was a team wide problem. I think a better hockey team would have been able to utilize him more effectively. All Oiler forwards skated miles because their blue had hands of stone. Landeskog killed on the road btw.
- RNH is pretty famous. My favorite quote comes from Ken Hitchcock:“My opinion on Nugent-Hopkins has changed … last summer I thought he reminded me of Joe Sakic, but it’s Pavel Datsyuk now. He strips people of the puck, he’s crafty in high-traffic areas, he dishes well, he’s got great patience with the puck.”
- What is he good at? Powerplay obviously, I think he’s the best young passer to come through here since, well, some famous guys. He backchecks well and steals pucks ala Datsyuk and Keon (as mentioned by Hitchcock, above). RNH is brilliantly aware of where the puck is on the ice and can make plays in a very small area. His cross ice passes are sublime.
- Are there any negatives? He got hurt this season, so that’s a down arrow. His FO percentage was less than 40%. His CorsiRel is in the black but he did get a really big ZS push so I’m not sure how much credit we can give him.
- Did he have a better rookie season than Hall and Eberle? I think the PP prowess puts him well ahead of anyone in recent memory, althought his injury obscures the feat and the boxcars look less spectacular.
- Can he do that PP thing again? I don’t know if he’ll hit 7.3/60 but it is clear the Nuge has some magic going on the PP. Hitchcock mentioned his puck skills and we saw a lot of proof he can impact that part of the game.
- Can he hit 50 assists? He was on pace for 45 as a rookie, I think he’ll clear that hurdle many times.
- What can he become? Hitchcock seems to think Pavel Datsyuk is the outer marker. As with Hall, I think it’s best we wait and see what the player tells us. He certainly delivered more than expected, which is incredible considering the fact that he was taken #1 overall.
- What else? I think the Nuge will blossom anyway, but by eye this team had such a terrible time getting the puck out of their zone that it was ridiculous. I’d put good money on every sortie this kid flies once across the redline and in control, but Edmonton forwards spent enormous amounts of time in their own zone and defending this season. Part of that can be laid at the feet of the forwards, but a more mobile defense group capable of tape to tape passing would benefit this young man in a very big way. Once Ryan Nugent-Hopkins gains possession of the puck, good things happen.
- Strange choice of song. Obscure, and the band sounds drunk! Obscure? Not for me. One of my all-time favorite Neil Young songs. And that’s their style, man.
- NHL prediction for 11-12: 63gp, 11-23-34 (.540)
- Actual 2011: 62gp, 18-34-52 (.839)
- A PP Witch.
And that’s their style, man.
During the recording of “Tears Are Not Enough”, David Foster told Neil Young that he was flat. Young: “It’s my sound, man!”
If there’s ever been a recording artist as or more successful whose artistic integrity was less in doubt, I can’t think of who it would be.
That’s the sound of ragged glory, man.
Stu McGregor, in an interview with Terry Jones on the new CSS Rankings and the impending Draft Lottery, had this to say about Kristian Pelss:
…We liked him. So we drafted him in the seventh round. He was a bit of a longshot. Two years later, I like him a lot. I call him my Little Latvian Ball of Hate.
Spoiler, that’s interesting. I like him a lot too. Although I don’t see him as a “Ball of Hate” as he doesn’t seem to have that much of a crazy physical side to him. He does have some great talent (I can’t see how St Croix has 2x as many points as him) and some giddyup, although the scoring stats don’t seem to be there.
Presumably it means they are going to sign him?
Regarding Hopkins. Maybe they should just get both his shoulders fixed preemptively this summer and save the suspense.
Ducey,
Here’s the rest of the article. Some interesting quotes in there including a thumbnail scouting report on Murray.
Ha ha ha… is feel kind of sick now because part of me thinks that’s a good idea. Ew.
Its good to see he isn’t going to be headed to the Worlds this year – kid needs some time to unwind and relax. Hope he spends a lot of time watching the playoffs, and tries to learn some of the tricks of the trade from some elite players. Having him add to his bag of tricks would be pretty cool.
It would certainly be interesting to see who Stu would pick if he had #1 could choose BPA without consideration for position. He is quoted in the article as saying
“This year might turn out to be a little different. It may become a positional-type decision,”.
Now, I’m left wondering if that means they want a defenseman, or they want a centre…. I mean, they’ve wanted a #1D-man for years, but a big C has been a need for just as long…
That Fillmore East album is a front-to-back gem. Ditto for the Miles Davis live album recorded over the same nights. Great pick, LT. Nuge’s play has been like a Chinook & he may as well be responsible for YEG’s mild winter this year.
Glad the lottery is tonight, it should put my mind at ease. #1 means Yakov Smirnov. #2 means Murray, but I hate it. #3 means Murray, but I hate it a little less. Right?
I got two ping pong balls in tonight.
Hope the Habs win, and they Oil go get Grigs/Murray which i think they need more.
LT: Watching some baseball? I went to Citi Field sunday. Watched 6 innings of perfection from Jonathon Niese. Just which i could do that more often.
Sure seems like we’re in for a lot of surprises this year. (Go Expos and KC)
Who are you calling for champ? (I’l go with Texas finally)
I know it sounds farfetch’d.
But would you trade up the 2nd pick for P.K ?
Honest to god I think they could shop him for a high pick.
Ok Buster. I said nothing when you threw up Eberle’s post with Hurricane references and went with Young over Dylan. I even looked the other way when the Renney post went up headed A Man for All Seasons, and nary a mention of Al Stewart. Now it’s RNH day where you start things off with… “In the beginning”…and another, yes ANOTHER…Neil Young spotlight…when clearly Emerson, Lake and Palmer would have been a far more appropriate option.
I can only draw three possible conclusions:
1) You enjoy bleeding eardrums
2) Neil Young is your father
3) You have large amounts of money invested in ear protective device stock
I like a lot of things about Neil Young. Pretty good Canadian. Timeless. Political. A true individual who doesn’t give a tinkers damn what others think of him. I even tap my feet, and dare I say it, sing along occasionally to Harvest Moon, Heart of Gold, or Unknown Legend., but…and it’s a big BUT…the man should never have been allowed to HOLD an electric guitar, let alone play one.
His solos are an abomination, or as a work associate likes to say, “enough to make a goat puke.”
I prefer to quote my grandfather, a Sask. farmer all of his life, God bless his soul, ,,,,”sounds like a bag of cats headed for the horse trough.”
Looks around for the comment box. Ahemmm.
I was at the Oil Kings games on Friday and Saturday and Pelss seems to be in the right place at the right time. He has a deadly shot. One of his goals from Saturday beat the goalie clean from just inside the blue line – top of circles in the slot. He may not have the points of St. Croix, but has as many points in the playoffs. 5 pts each in 6 games. Pelss has 4 goals. including the pair on Saturday night that turned the tide in the 2nd period.
Hmmm … is that clutch or what ? LOL
cabbiesmacker,
It seems to me all song references in Nuge threads should reference Ted Nugent songs. There is one called “Just What the Doctor Ordered”. I have never listened to it, but the title fits nicely.
Jordan,
That would certainly sound like Murray is the front runner if the Oilers stay in the #2 slot. How ballsy would it be if they took him with the #1? Or maybe better worded…”How sad is our D corps when Murray IS taken with the #1?”
Knowing how this team has coped with pressure situations throughout history I hope they fall to #3 and Murray is still available.
For pure entertainment value I’d like to see them move up to #1. The hand wringing and beaded brows would be worth the price of admission.
For purely practical purposes I’d like to see the first rounder used as part of a pkg deal that brings in a real and ready player. whether thats a D, C, or W in the power forward ilk would be just fine.
Away in a Manger or ALW’s Superstar coulda worked too.
I’d be ecstatic with such a trade. I also kind of think Montreal might do it as well.
The only downside is that Oiler fans and the media will turn on Subban in a country second. However, if Hemsky can take it then so can Subban.
Adding Subban + one of the good FA D this offseason and this is a team with a chance at the playoffs.
cabbiesmacker,
I would love to see the Islanders win the lottery, take Yakupov, and have Howson march up there and take Murray. Immediately you would have a clear tell on the Oilers’ position on this draft.
If they take Grigs, then they are taking the BPA. If they trade down, they want someone specific, of they try to make a trade for the high-end D-man that they covet.
I think the only way they will take Grigs is if Murray is off the board.
per TSN, Stamkos is out, and Ted Nugent is in for the World Championships.
This is my top 10. IMO this is the best draft for defensemen in the decade. Opposite for F’s
1. Yakupov
2. Grigorenko
3. Murray
4. Trouba
5. Galchenyuk
6. Ceci
7. Girgensons
8. Aberg
9. Maatta
10. Koekkoek
If they win the lottery today…you shop the hell out of that pick, right? Somebody like Washington could probably make you an intriguing offer for a highly skilled Russian.
Gerta Rauss,
Crap.
Now I really wish he was going for surgery. At least that way he wouldn’t get injured!
…
…God I wish I was joking…
OT but assuming that Tambellini doesn’t trade for a legit #1 what does everyone think about bringing in Jonas Gustavsson? He didn’t play well for Toronto but I think he could bounce back possibly turn into a really good goalie. I’m not sure how much you can blame on Francois Allaire but it seems Gustavsson and Allaire were never really on the same page.
No, you draft Yakupov and then shop the hell out of Gagner, Hemsky and MPS.
Actually, I don’t see anything wrong with shopping the pick without having any intention of actually trading it. You might find out some information about players that might be available that you wouldn’t have otherwise found out.
I love how that linked article goes on about how no team in 2nd slot has ever won the lottery. Talk about the reverse jinx.
I have a feeling Toronto will win it though. Burke will find a way to corrupt the process.
cabbiesmacker,
Music is the most subjective thing in the world. You’re incredibly wrong, more wrong than I would think a person was able to be, and yet, if you really believe that, you’re also right. If hearing Neil wring every drop of out of that one note in Cinnamon Girl doesn’t move your soul, there’s no way I can explain why it should. Or vice versa. Even cabbiesmacker’s got soul.
Captain Obvious,
How good is Subban? I really don’t know. Every time I watch a Habs game he looks like a gem, and yet look at his stats. They’re good but not amazing. I don’t think he’s the White Whale of a D-man a lot of people are looking for. That said, the world is full of second overall busts. I wouldn’t be as excited about the deal as you are, but I could be talked into it.
Traktor,
It all depends on contract. I agree with you on the disconnect between Alaire on Jonas, but do we know enough about Dubnyk to hand him the reins completely if it turns out the Monster was the problem? I think Gustavsson would be best served by at least half a season in the minors. If he’s willing to do that here, I’d love to have him in the Danis role. If he wants a guarenteed part of an NHL roster, I’d call him a plan B or C.
As far as the lottery goes, a big part of me is cheering for the Islanders. If you multiply length of sufferng by depth of suffering, I think they take the cake. Them or Columbus, who I believe is a good hockey market waiting for a good hockey team.
Stevezie: There’s moments where i don’t feel the world like Subban and think about getting some lowball trades on him. Then I check his age, and check what the other supreme d-men of this league where at at his age. Then I stop worrying.
Totally with you on this one. The Islanders are permanently linked to the glory years in my mind, and having them floundering at the bottom with the Oilers adds and extra measure of suck to the whole mess. Not to mention how shaky the franchise is, and the talk of moving it.
Here’s to hoping the Islanders and Oilers meet up in SCF 2017.
You can always say : At least we’re not Cleveland!
In a heartbeat
I’m a true soul brotha Stevezie. Har.
I hear you re Neil “wringing out that one note” though. It would have to be that way. He only knows ONE note. I am also incredibly kind however and left out the words “pathetic”, “excruciating”, and “unfortunate.”
No complaints about his folk side but if I end up going to hell I just know it’s either going to be endless Neil solos or Madonna compilations.
Yes music is subjective. That is why I can really enjoy Carlos Santana or David Gilmour all the while knowing neither can hold a candle “technically” to John McLaughlin, Steve Morse, Larry Carlton, Stevie Ray Vaughn, Paco de Lucia, or Al Demeola.
I also appreciated those crayon works of art my kids used to stick to the fridge just as much or more than a Picasso.
Just to specifify. It’s the 2nd pick overall, not 2nd rounder.
Or Calgary
Wouldn’t be too certain of that. Looks like Kuznetzov is going to screw the Capitals next year and stay in Russia.
stevezie,
He was a plus defensive and offensive player on a terrible team, against top competition, with a negative zone start.
Add it all up and I have him as a +10 player last year. In terms of young D, I’d put him in a similar category as John Carlson, Ekman-Larson, and Victor Hedman.
I’m Team Murray all the way, even at #1. I wouldn’t trade Murray for Subban. Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle, and Hall are the Oilers meal tickets. They need a guy who can pass the puck to them. Murray will do that better and more reliably than Subban. Our forwards are getting put injury risk because our defence is so lousy.
I have that feeling as well. The NHL will rig this so the Leafs win the Lottery.
Canada-Russia women on TSN….Canada up 14-1, it’s getting nasty with a few min left.
This draft seems a lot like 2007. The first round went like this:
Chicago Blackhawks
Patrick Kane, RW (London, OHL)
Philadelphia Flyers
James vanRiemsdyk, LW (USA U-18 team)
Phoenix Coyotes
Kyle Turris, C (Burnaby, BCHL)
Los Angeles Kings
Thomas Hickey, D, (Seattle, WHL)
Washington Capitals
Karl Alzner, D (Calgary, WHL)
Edmonton Oilers
Sam Gagner, C/W (London, OHL)
Columbus Blue Jackets
Jakub Voracek, C/RW (Halifax, QMJHL)
Boston Bruins
Zach Hamill, C (Everett, WHL)
San Jose Sharks
Logan Couture, C (Ottawa, OHL)
Florida Panthers
Keaton Ellerby, D (Kamloops, WHL)
Carolina Hurricanes
Brandon Sutter, C/RW (Red Deer, WHL)
Montreal Canadiens
Ryan McDonagh, D (Cretin-Derham High School, Minnesota)
St. Louis Blues
Lars Eller, C/W (Frolunda Jr., Denmark)
Colorado Avalanche
Kevin Shattenkirk, D (U.S. U-18 Team)
Edmonton Oilers
Alex Plante, D (Calgary, WHL)
Minnesota Wild
Colton Gillies, C (Saskatoon, WHL)
New York Rangers
Alexei Cherepanov, RW (Omsk, Russia)
St. Louis Blues
Ian Cole, D (U.S. U-18 Team)
Anaheim Ducks
Logan MacMillan, C (Halifax, QMJHL)
Pittsburgh Penguins
Angelo Esposito, C (Quebec, QMJHL)
Edmonton Oilers
Riley Nash, C (Salmon Arm, BCHL)
Montreal Canadiens
Max Pacioretty, LW (Sioux City, USHL)
Nashville Predators
Johnathan Blum, D (Vancouver, WHL)
Calgary Flames
Michael Backlund, C (Vasteras, Sweden)
Vancouver Canucks
Patrick White, C (Tri-City, USHL)
St. Louis Blues
David Perron, LW (Lewiston, QMJHL)
Detroit Red Wings
Brendan Smith, D (St. Michaels, Ontario Jr. A)
San Jose Sharks
Nicholas Petrecki, D (Omaha, USHL)
Ottawa Senators
James O’Brien, C (Univ. of Minnesota, WCHA)
Phoenix Coyotes
Nick Ross, D, (Regina, WHL)
One elite forward who went first overall. The rest of the forwards in the top ten all now look like good second line players (with the exception of Hamill who’s a bust), but none of them look elite. A couple of third line forwards (Sutter, Eller) in the middle ten picks, and three more good second liners in the bottom ten (Pacioretty, Backlund, Perron). Three top 4 D – taken with the 5th, 12th and 14th picks and a few more guys (Ellerby, Blum, Smith) that might turn into players, but haven’t yet.
Not bad, but nothing like 2006, where the first four forwards taken (Staal, Toews, Backstrom, Kessel) were all elite, as well as Giroux at 22.
Here’s a scout talking about this draft:
“The guy I have at No. 2 might be No. 10 on someone else’s list,” said a Western Conference scout. “There’s depth. But there’s not a lot of high-end skill. A lot of the forwards might be not more than third-line guys.”
Even Morrison acknowledges this draft comes with challenges. Part of the problem is that many of the first-round prospects spent considerable time nursing injuries this season. The bigger issue is that the top-end talent just isn’t there.
“It does make it tougher,” he said. “At the top, there’s no obvious guy. There’s not a lot of give between the players.”
http://sports.nationalpost.com/2012/03/31/maple-leafs-aim-to-get-it-right-in-the-nhl-entry-draft/
As I said, that sounds a lot like 2007.
Marc: Agreed. This won’t be a very good draft. But I still think the ”good guys” will be worth it.
Last year they said the draft would be weak. It’s one for the ages.
And then they said this draft would be all-class. It’s terrible.
Hah Scouts. Only a few are worth anything.
Marc,
2007 was a black mark for the Oilers in so many ways and a real crowning achievement for Lowe.
Pacioretty, Couture, Perron all taken at F after Gagner…sigh.
McDonagh did well considering the high school he came from.
Cabbie: Isn’t it rated one of the best in the country?
None of these guys (exept Couture) were ranked near that spot. It’s always a shitty game to play IMO.
Marc,
That’s probably a very good comparison to use to the 2012 prospects. Lets just hope it isn’t too similar.
God help whoever is taken 17th overall if it is…
Seriously. Tampa and Buffalo both have 4 picks in the top 45. I hope their fans aren’t getting too excited…
First half of the hyphenated name FPV.
You got a grudge against Apples?
Can’t wait for the draft lottery at 6 and watching ST.
3 seconds before the ball drops
“The Edmonton Oilers are proud to…”
“Uh Steve we haven’t determined the order yet.”
“Ohhhhh”
“Then the draft is in June Steve.”
“Ohhhhhhh”
(puts stack of paperwork back into briefcase)
Oh my.
Cabbie: Oh “)$”$). I mistaken with David Fisher who went to Apple Valley (Another US defensemen we drafted in the first round).
Hahahaha. Might as well be called Idiot High.
Can someone check this for me, I think this is right but am curious if anyone else has looked at this?
Only 3 teams can pick 5th – WIN, TOR, and NYI, correct? If so, you actually get a fair bit of info from seeing who is in the #5 spot when they open the first envelope.
If WIN is picking 5th (2.7%), they have won the lottery and EDM is picking 2nd.
If NYI is picking 5th (22.6%), one of teams 5-8 have won the lottery.
If TOR is picking 5th (74.7%), one of teams 1-4 or 10-14 have won the lottery.
looks right, speeds.
cabbie and others re:Neil Young. You’re not going to like April around here.
Think someone could forward Speeds message to Tambellini so he looks like e knows what just happened when team picking # 5 is announced
It took me a while to figure out why you cared about 5th, but now I understand – they must announce these things in reverse order as opposed to just announcing who won the lottery.
cabbiesmacker,
I’m with you on Madonna, she has had a negative impact on humanity.
I also disagree strongly that Gagner was a blown pick. Couture might be better, but that doesn’t make Gagner bad, or even bad value. Plante and Nash, though, well obviously they screwed those up. I thought they looked really bad at the time.
It absolutely boggles my mind that you could make that claim so soon after Lowetide posted that Like A Hurricane video. Like, I’m actually speechless…and it’s my job not to be speechless.
Jesus.
I see what you did there.
Steve Smith: I thought he was kidding about that part (electric guitar) but now reading it again you’re right. Crazy.