THE PLAN

After finding out the Oilers won the lottery last night, most experts suggested their were three reasonable options. Based on what we heard today, the Edmonton Oilers choice for direction in regard to the #1 overall pick is option 3.

I think most of us felt the Oilers would use their #1 overall pick in one of three ways:

  1. Keep the pick and select Nail Yakupov, generally regarded as the best player available.
  2. Trade the #1 overall pick for an established defender still in his entry level deal.
  3. Trade the #1 overall pick for another selection near the top and an NHL defenseman.

Steve Tambellini at the media conference:  “People know the position we have and the depth of skill we have in our organizational chart. Managers know that if they present something that helps us in a lot of different ways, we have the ability to make a deal.  That may not happen, but we have the ability to do it.”

Parsing Tambellese is never easy, but I think he plans to deal down to the 3-6 range and add an NHL defenseman. That means they’ll get their defender in the draft (Ryan Murray of Griffin Reinhart) and address immediate defensive needs with the other asset coming over.

So, they’re going to get two jacks for a king. My immediate reaction is that a trade with Montreal seems extremely possible, with Edmonton dealing #1 for #3 and an established NHL defender. Failing that, a trade with Toronto is possible–Brian Burke and Steve Tambellini know each other well and I’m sure Burke will be the most aggressive GM during the procuess.

My bet is that the Oilers have Ryan Murray and Luke Schenn on the roster by July 1st. I don’t know what else will be in the deal but based on the verbal we heard today Edmonton is open for business. I’d bet a fair amount of grain (read: beer) Brian Burke makes the first overall pick.

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69 Responses to "THE PLAN"

  1. skinny65 says:

    God that scares me. it was my immediate thought as well and Schenn just isnt worth it. And at 5 you probably wont get murray. That is my worst case scenario. Cant trust tambo!!

  2. Professor Q says:

    I just finished watching multiple Bure (one of my favourite players, along with Fleury and Kariya growing up) and Yakupov highlights, and man do they seem starkly similar. And Yakupov has a shot like Stamkos too. I just think I would love to see him in Oilers copper’n’blue.

  3. godot10 says:

    Sutton is signed for next year, and Teubert is a year away. I don’t think the Oilers would really be interested in Schenn.

    Murray is probably gone at #2.

    The #1 for Bogosian and the #9, though Reinhart probably wouldn’t last that long. But one might be able to draft Faksa there.

  4. speeds says:

    Of the three, the first option looks like the best to me. I mean, obviously you listen to what’s out there, but why do people (hopefully not Tambellini) think that using the #1 OV pick is the only way to address the defence?

    I mean, people seem to like RNH, and Hall. Yakupov could be as good, or even better*. I get that “there’s only one puck”, but it’s not like anyone plays much more than 20 min a night. 2 dominant lines aren’t all bad, ask the Pens, a supposed model.

    If you can get a true top pair, young D, I guess I can see the argument (although I probably don’t agree), but is a guy like Karlsson, or Pietrangelo, going to be available, even for the #1 OV?

    * or worse, obviously, but you know what I mean

  5. DBO says:

    mentioned it yesterday. But i expect the Isles to make a splash

    I hope for:
    Hamonic and the 4th for the 1st. I’d take that deal.
    Gardiner and the 5th would work, but I doubt Burke deals Gardiner.

  6. Maverick says:

    I am in favor of drafting Yakupov as he is a potential 40 goal scorer on the RW or LW and other parts of the roster should be used to bring in the top defenseman that is needed. However, after listening to Mr.Dithers on the radio today, its seems he is happy with the players he knows and will trade the pick to get the defenseman or trade down to get a player and draft later. So Renney staying, Khabibulin staying and staying the course. Yay! (sarcastic)

  7. fuzzy muppet says:

    We are talking about Lowe and Tambo.

    The last thing I want is for them to start over-thinking things.

    Take Yakupov. Anyone NOT named Hall/ RNH /Eberle can be moved for defense.

  8. Brett Gee says:

    Okay, so reviewing some Tencer tweets it seems like Tambo had a press conference to stick his foot in his own mouth several times.

    Did he really say that Renney is our coach and then clarify that by saying he is for now, but might or might not get a contract?

    Did he really say that Khabibulin will be back, no doubt about it? Without looking into other options? And then, did he really say that Nik wants to play for 4 or 5 more years? Is he really hinting at giving him a contract extension?

    Just when enough time and distractions float by and you forget a little bit about how much of a useless piece of trash of a GM this guy is, he holds a press conference.

  9. Brett Gee says:

    holy crap! Tambo wants Renney explain himself and how to make the team better.

    Don’t give him Barker, Khabbi and the gang!!!

  10. Crooked says:

    While I see Toronto and Montreal being the most likely team to move up in the draft, Schenn & #5 for the #1 overall is probably too steep of a price to pay. I think Burke is desperate to make improvements, but not desperate enough to make a bad move.

    Schenn & #5 for some package involving #1 and a player (Gagner) makes sense though, especially if there are other picks thrown in, like Toronto’s 2nd (#35) and Edmonton or LA’s 3rd.

  11. DSF says:

    Over/under on Tambellini trading the #1 pick for a player with medical issues?

    See Whitney, Ryan for reference.

  12. Mr DeBakey says:

    Teubert is a year away

    From what?
    Turnstile at the Ex?

  13. stevezie says:

    Well, as giddy as I was at the prospect of having the most potent group of forwards in the west if not the league, I suppose from a salary cap perspective you could argue that we’re better off spreading the wealth around. The problem is I think a King is worth more than two Jacks.

    As nice as Murray and Gardner are, depth is easier to find than elite talent. Right? Isn’t it? No way we could get future Norris nominees Pietrangelo or Karlsson for the pick. Maybe O.E.L. Maybe the 2nd and Subban for the 1st and Marcinin and Hamilton. I don’t love anything else.

    Let’s all remember this is Steve Tambellini we’re talking about. The man really, really doesn’t care if the fans (or his players) have any idea what his plan is. I don’t know any GM whose press conferences are less meaningful. We really have no idea whathis intentions are. So he’s considering all options, good. He should.

    Go Pens.

  14. stevezie says:

    DSF:
    Over/under on Tambellini trading the #1 pick for a player with medical issues?

    See Whitney, Ryan for reference.

    Keep in mind Nail is alreaady a player with medical issues.

  15. yawto says:

    The question I have is why would the Oilers rush anything. From what Gregor said on ON, Schultz is a free agent on June 1st. Before they make any trade, see where that takes you. Then, after the playoffs, if you aren’t going to do anything with him, try flip Omark and a pick to the Predators to the rights for Suter (if they think they are going to lose him). I know the second one is a hope but the first one is a definate possibility, especially after the lottery win. It has to get easier to sign anyone with the thought of the talent on that front end even before adding Yakupov. I just think they would be crazy to do anything before they see where Schultz is at.

  16. jake70 says:

    Hall, 20 yo just had shoulder surgery. RNH, 18 out twice with shoulder issues. If you are comfortable with the guy’s character and mental make-up, you have to take him as the consensus number 1. There is no compensation to team’s whose first overall picks get injured early in their career. Don’t want to be doom and gloom but you could argue that it’s already a concern for 1, maybe 2 of the golden trio, they aren’t terminators and teams don’t fear targeting them to this point.

  17. raventalon40 says:

    Jordan Staal has one year left on his contract after this year. I know this trade suggestion has been beat to death worse than dead horse in previous years, but I feel like it’s a start.

    Trade suggestion:

    Sam Gagner + Curtis Hamilton + Eric Belanger + 1st 2013

    for

    Jordan Staal + Ben Lovejoy + 3rd 2012

    I don’t know if I struck a fair deal for both sides, but I certainly gave it a try.

    Yakupov-RNH-Eberle <-cushy zone starts
    Hall-Staal-Hemsky <-toughs
    Smyth-Horcoff-Jones <-toughs
    Hartikainen-"UFA or Training Camp Surprise"-Eager
    Paajarvi
    Hordichuk

    Whitney-Schultz
    Smid-Petry
    Sutton-Potter
    Peckham/Teubert

    Dubnyk
    UFA (or maybe extend training camp invite to LeNeveu and Danis?)

    I'll admit the D could still use some work, but I think in terms of icing a starting lineup it's not too bad. Might have to replace Peckham or Teubert with someone more experienced, though.

  18. Traktor says:

    If the only way Steve Tambellini can improve Edmonton’s D is by trading the 1st overall pick then he should be fired.

  19. bluenotenorth says:

    Sammy P always said whoever got the best player in a trade wins. He bundled several players to get one star. Why would you want to do the reverse? Take Yakopov. Elite talent wins.

  20. D says:

    I’d be surprised if the Oil trade the first pick. I don’t think the decision is Tambo’s or Lowe’s. With something of this magnitude, it would be an ownership decision and I’d be very surprised if Katz trades the pick.

    LT – who is that amazing young Oiler in that picture?

    :)

  21. Lowetide says:

    I’ll tell you over a cup of Coffey. :-)

  22. stevezie says:

    Traktor:
    If the only way Steve Tambellini can improve Edmonton’s D is by trading the 1st overall pick then he should be fired.

    Yeah. We can sign guys for free, or trade contracts we don’t need. If there’s a trade that we win we make it, but let’s not pretend out hands are tied here.

  23. stevezie says:

    Fuggin Flyers. I hate them.

    No comments on Danis winning the AHL’s Vezina?

  24. rich says:

    Traktor,

    What he said.

  25. Woodguy says:

    Traktor:
    If the only way Steve Tambellini can improve Edmonton’s D is by trading the 1st overall pick then he should be fired.

    Not the only way.

    A better way to get a true #1 without overpaying in free agency.

    My opinion is to keep Yakpov and go with a Pittsburg style D with 5 or so very solid defenders and then try to breed your own #1 like they did with Letang (drafted #62 overall)

    If they need to trade, trade for a sure thing with a track record on ELC like LT says.

    The trade for another top pick with a decent but not great player is the biggest gamble. A large amount of #1 Dmen come from outside the top of the draft.. You often just don’t know about Dmen when they are 18.

    There are a myriad of ways that Tambellini can fuck this up.

    I’m not worried about having too many small wingers either.

    Briere pots 2 tonight and is pt/gm player in the playoffs.

    He’s listed at 5’10″, but that’s probably in skates.

    A staff member of mine is a huge Flyers fan and got his picture with Danny when they were in town this year. He’s slightly taller than Briere in the picture and confirmed he’s slightly taller when standing next to each other.

    My staff member is 5’8″

  26. Iztok Turk says:

    They are not trading that pick, trust me.

  27. bluenotenorth says:

    If a couple of elite d and solid goaltending was the key then Nashville would have a few cups by now. Teams are always trying to build a second line. Take Yakopov and you are 5/6 of the way to two elite lines. I agree with Woodguy. Get some serviceable d through trade or UFA. Barker, Peckham and likely Potter need to be upgraded – and that shouldn’t take much to do.

  28. Dave Casselman says:

    I’m stunned by what I read. Absolutely stunned! If the Yak is not a headcase, if the Oilers medical team does not discover anything that would somehow stunt a career, if the Yak has no interest in returning to Mother Russia, how on earth can anyone consider trading the first pick?

    (Only one caveat: An offer that is so ridiculous, so in favour of the Oil. Like swapping out with Boston, Looch and Seguin coming to the Oil. That kind of thing.)

  29. Woodguy says:

    stevezie:
    Fuggin Flyers. I hate them.

    No comments on Danis winning the AHL’s Vezina?

    Would be a better foil for DD than Khabby by miles.

    When v4.0 insta answered “yes” on whether Khabby is coming back I shuddered.

    When he went on and on about Khabby’s “compete” and desire to play another 4-5 years I openly wept.
    w

  30. speeds says:

    Iztok Turk:
    They are not trading that pick, trust me.

    I don’t know if they are or aren’t, but it wouldn’t necessarily seem like the best time to switch gears. You take all this time with a slow build to acquire elite talent, and you have been doing that over the past couple years and now get some luck and walk into more of just that, and move it because you need some immediate D help next year, as if there is no other way to get that D help via trade/UFA? If that gear needs to be switched, it makes more sense to me that you’d do that on July 1 with UFA/trades once you’ve got Yakupov, not before. As always, it depends on the deal, but I’ll be surprised if they move the pick.

  31. Oilcountry says:

    I don’t see how trading down helps us, trading the #1 pick never works.If tambellini makes a deal with Burke he will get screwed schenn or franson will not help us at all, I like reinhart but if we walk away with schenn and reinhart we will talk about this being one of the most lopsided trades in history.

    The only way I would consider moving down is if we could get Johannsen or el Nino plus there first..

  32. Alice says:

    fuzzy muppet:
    We are talking about Lowe and Tambo.

    The last thing I want is for them to start over-thinking things.

    Take Yakupov.Anyone NOT named Hall/ RNH /Eberle can be moved for defense.

    What Fuzzy sed.

  33. LMHF#1 says:

    The trade option is not enough unless it is part of a larger deal. Simply acquiring another pick and a defenceman that won’t be a #1 just doesn’t eclipse the return of a #1 draft pick.

    Initially I was skeptical, but I’ve moved to the pick Yakupov camp. Use the secondary guys and UFA to get dmen. Find a coach that enjoys the track meet game and watch the offence win.

  34. "Steve Smith" says:

    Iztok Turk:
    They are not trading that pick, trust me.

    I would never doubt you.

  35. delooper says:

    The only way they trade the pick is if they get a spectacular return that more or less solves all their defensive woes. Having Yakupov up front outweighs near any realistic-sounding offer.

  36. Alice says:

    The only thing that makes sense to me is a top-4 plus Grigorenko. No point in trading down to get two D, when we have a fairly decent prospect pipeline there. Get a solid NHL D plus draft Couturier v.2012 – maybe.

    Otherwise you grab Yakupov and don’t look back.

    ST scares the hell out of me, hopefully he’s just beating the bushes.

  37. Woodguy says:

    “Steve Smith”: I would never doubt you.

    I do not think that “doubt’ means what you think it means.

  38. bookje says:

    Woodguy: Would be a better foil for DDthan Khabby by miles.

    When v4.0 insta answered “yes” on whether Khabby is coming back I shuddered.

    When he went on and on about Khabby’s “compete” and desire to play another 4-5 years I openly wept.
    w

    I also found that strange, but I think that Tambellini lies a lot so I am hoping it falls into that category of things. Particularly the pay another 4-5 years comment.

  39. Wolfie says:

    Penner laying the body! The Kings don’t look like an 8th seed early on.

  40. bookje says:

    Lowetide:
    I’ll tell you over a cup of Coffey.

    Are you going to tell us all over a cup of coffee – my god man, stop the suspense.

  41. stevezie says:

    Too bad the Coyotes don’t have an Owner capable of pressuring Maloney to trade O.E.L for something shiny like a 1st overall. He might consider it anyway, I don’t know.

  42. gogliano says:

    I distrust Iztok Turk.

  43. Schitzo says:

    This draft reminds me of 2007 – clear 1st overall and then a hodgepodge of question marks for the next half dozen players. I’d hate to see us trade down from Kane to Turris. Take the (relatively) sure thing!

  44. Bar_Qu says:

    gogliano:
    I distrust Iztok Turk.

    I trusted him more when he was an Ottoman.

    Schitzo,
    This is argument number 127 against trading the pick, but also makes more likely the trade down. Can’t see the forest for the trees and all that.

  45. gogliano says:

    The thing about the dropoff/2007 argument is that it also increases the value of the #1 relative to the other picks (if it is common knowledge, which I think it is) which is value that will presumably be returned in the trade.

    But all this requires our GM get full value for the #1, of course.

  46. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Man the Oilers could use a Willie Mitchell

  47. Ribs says:

    gogliano:
    I distrust Iztok Turk.

    Say that three times fast.

    I have to say that I am kind of surprised at how many people are calling for the Oilers to trade away this pick. For me it’s Yakupov or Weber at the draft. Anything else seems needlessly risky to me.

  48. misfit says:

    As much as I was getting the feeling in Tambellini’s press conference that moving the pick is the most likely scenario, I can’t help believe that at the end of the day, he’ll do the right thing and select the Russian winger. MBS is too smart to allow Tambellini to do something that foolish.

    I know scoring winger isn’t high on the list of priorities, but I really don’t see a move out there which includes trading the pick that you can justify making. Of course, I’ve heard Tambellini’s press conferences explaining why he signed Barker and traded Tom Gilbert for Schultz…that guy can apparently convince himself that just about anything could be a good idea.

  49. commonfan14 says:

    If the consensus #1 is good enough to trade a top-5 pick and a top-4 D for, he’s probably a guy we should be drafting.

    I don’t necessarily think Tambo is seriously considering anything else either. He strikes me as a guy who likes messing with people a bit.

    I also don’t especially get why people are so adamant about getting rid of Khabby by any means necessary at this point. It’s the last year of his deal, he might be capable of being a decent back-up if we actually give Doobie a full starter’s role, and he’s the one guy in the dressing room who Yaks can talk to in his first language. I don’t think we should underestimate just how much that could help the kid adjust in his rookie year.

  50. Gerta Rauss says:

    Man the Oilers could use a Willie Mitchell

    A couple of Willie Mitchells

    For me it’s Yakupov or Weber at the draft. Anything else seems needlessly risky to me

    That’s pretty much it for me too. If a (signed) Weber is an option I’m listening,other than that,take the Russian kid and sort out the roster later.

    **and as I post this Willie Mitchell scores to make it 2-1

  51. In the Grease says:

    On the poker analogy tip: Would you rather go all-in holding a Full House (3 Kings and 2 Jacks) or Four of a Kind (4 Kings) …?

    Just casting another vote for the no-brainer: grab Nail, and figure out some other way to put a couple solid defencemen in the lineup… sign/ trade/ develop – it can be done, even by Tambellini. And there’s still time….

  52. In the Grease says:

    @Commonfan

    My thoughts as well regarding Khabby… could be serviceable as a back-up, and a solid presence to help Yakupov transition for a year.

  53. delooper says:

    Delicious waffles!

  54. gogliano says:

    If the Pens offered Malkin or /and Crosby, I’d deal the #1.

    Anyone know if they are rioting in Vancouver? Are they saving themselves for the cup finals? What happened, I missed the game.

  55. delooper says:

    Kings won. They weren’t fantastic or dominating, but they got it done. Vancouver took endless stupid, kind of pointless and uninspired penalties. They also whined and dove a lot.

  56. Giant Squid Overlord says:

    In Stu we trust.

    Sure, EVERYBODY is saying Nail is the consensus #1. But what does Stu think?

    I hope that IF we trade down, it is because Stu likes a player equal to or more than Yakupov and had told Tambo that we could get him later. If we are trading down because the Tambo decides against the advice of a Magnificent Bastard to fill a team need instead of aquiring the BPA, Tambo is a dullard and I am in fear for our rebuild.

    In Stu does Tambo trust? That is the question.

  57. prairieschooner says:

    Tambi said that Yakupov is not at the same level as Hall based on his 2 memorial cups pedigree
    If the Oilers had trouble with Omark how is this going to work out
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F36YNCae9yg

  58. D says:

    Lt – you bring the Coffey and I’ll bring the Foster Beers. On another note – I hope you run the table this year with your ON playoff predictions. But if you do miss one, I really hope its the LA-Vancouver prediction. The good people of LA could use a playoff victory (and knocking out the Canucks is an added side benefit).

    Lowetide:
    I’ll tell you over a cup of Coffey.

  59. hunter1909 says:

    Methinks Tambellini was simply giddy when he realised he was getting a shot at Yakupov.

    Why the hell does the current management group want to rush anything at this stage by trading off the chance to have Gretz/Kurri + Messier/Anderson 2.0? For Luke Schenn!?? LMAO

    This is a golden opportunity to ice 2 super scoring lines…lines so outstanding talent-wise they can simply plug in a pair of JF Jacques’ on each and still watch them excel.

    Sure…defence is still a problem, but suddenly the pure offence is in the stratosphere.

    Of course with fools, you always have to suspect the worst. If they trade this guy away, they’re fools. Sucker up to bat, first timer in the poker game level(which I’ve suspected all along).

  60. vishcosity says:

    Seeing DP hit the winner tonight was a nice family moment when everyone in the house could all come together for a common cause. The lady clearly has a place in her heart for socal hockey, I distain the canucks, and together with pops here in Phoenix we all bonded in a way fans of different teams rarely can do.

    It was refreshing to see her not torqued over the Oilers getting three straight, watching the draft in the bedroom and screaming OILERS WIN! when the card came out, I was all alone in my glee. Clearly there is a sore spot amongst fans who think their teams should be able to compete over the next few years.

    To land this pick is quite an opportunity, to be able to assemble that much elite talent on one roster is a really unique in this era. If they keep Pavel Yakupov and fail to upgrade the d, is anyone actually going to freak out? I bet not.

    Well, except dsf, but he is freaking out about something else entirely.

  61. Woodguy says:

    bookje: I also found that strange, but I think that Tambellini lies a lot so I am hoping it falls into that category of things.Particularly the pay another 4-5 years comment.

    I hope so too.

    What irks me is that he goes on and on about competition fopr spots on the roster and Khabby hasb’t earned his in 4 years, outside of 11 games at the beginning of this year.

    Its also telling that in talking about Omark he said that there isn’t room for him in the top 6.

    Obviously he suscribes to the “only 6 offensive forwards per roster” theory.

    Penner was playing 3rd line minutes for most of the year, was having a good game so Sutter moves him up on the Philly Beach line and BAM game one winner.

    Someone forgot to tell Lombardi that only 6 top 6 forwards were allowed to be dressed.

  62. stevezie says:

    Woodguy,

    I have never seen a team resent a later round pick showing promise before, but from the moment that youtube clip first showed up the Oilers brass seemed uncomfortable with the idea that someone outside the plan was being foced on them.

    Maybe Souray can get Omark a tryout in Dallas. They’d certainly have enough amunition for a couple of drinking sessions.

  63. uni says:

    Traktor: If the only way Steve Tambellini can improve Edmonton’s D is by trading the 1st overall pick then he should be fired.

    ^ ^ ^
    This, a thousand times over.

    Elite talent like Yakupov is something you grab. Carolina and then Pittsburg showed you can win with a competent goaltender and solid defense. Get 4-5 very good defensemen and 3 or so depth D that can step into 2nd pairing for spot duty and you don’t need an all world defenseman.

    Pittsburg has been romping with 2 of the best players in the world and another very good one at center in Staal. The Oilers have 3 very good young players in Hall, RHN, and Eberle that aren’t quite up to snuff with the big guns in Pittsburg, so when you have the chance grab the best player available and that’s Yakupov. Keep the 4 of them together and surround them with depth.

    I was on the Fail for Nail since the draft of RHN and even more so after the FA signings, when it was evident that only Belanger was a good bet. That whole thing to start the season didn’t even phase me, knew with the incompetent management of Toonces and crazy Renney would resurface as Omark sat then got demoted and Lander stayed up while drowning and the losing started up again.

    Already looking forward to McKinnon unless Katz cleans house at upper management. It’s disgusting what they’re doing with Omark by the by; way to throw away an asset. It’s almost as if they don’t want the fan base to realize you can get good value deep in the draft without having to tank constantly.

  64. nathan says:

    1. Keep the pick and select Nail Yakupov, generally regarded as the best player available.
    2. Trade the #1 overall pick for an established defender still in his entry level deal.
    3. Trade the #1 overall pick for another selection near the top and an NHL defenseman.

    They could also be considering one other option:

    4. Trade the #1 overall pick (plus an under 25 established forward) for an elite under 25 established defender (plus another selection near the top). The value must be there in the defender. The pluses balance age.

  65. Doug McLachlan says:

    Do NOT trade the pick. Period.

    Take Yakupov and work on the d from through free agency and trades of non-core forwards.

    Other than the Lindros trade (which has some serious astrixes attached to it given Lindros’ injury history and Forsberg’s blossiming into the superstar that he did, as opposed to a really good prospect), I can not think of a team that traded away the first overall pick that “won” the trade.

    Hall-Nuge-Yakupov
    Hartikanen-Gagner-Eberle
    Smyth-Horcoff-Hemsky
    MPS-Lander-Jones
    plug and play Belanger, Eager, Hordichuk, etc

    You do NOT draft for need, you trade to fill holes. You draft for talent and you have the pick of the 2012 crop – go get it!

  66. striatic says:

    haven’t been following oilers news for the past couple of days .. this is crazy.

    thinking about it, i can totally see Burke managing to smooth talk his buddy Steve into parting with the 1st overall in exchange for 5th and Schenn. just too plausible to ignore.

    building a solid D corps simply does not require parting with a #1 pick. this team has too many defensive prospects and too many other teams have accomplished it, including Tambellini’s own with Vancouver.

  67. hags9k says:

    Unless you can get Shea, draft Nail. Sign the best UFA D you can and then be patient.

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