2012 Draft: The Top 10

It looks like there’s going to be more variance than normal at the top of this year’s entry draft. The differences in the expert lists is large and seems to be growing.

THE TOP 10′s

Bob McKenzie at the draft

  1. Nail Yakupov
  2. Mikhail Grigorenko
  3. Ryan Murray
  4. Filip Forsberg
  5. Matt Dumba
  6. Alex Galchenyuk
  7. Jacob Trouba
  8. Griffin Reinhart
  9. Morgan Rielly
  10. Radek Faksa & Teuvo Teravainen

Redline Report

  1. Nail Yakupov
  2. Filip Forsberg
  3. Teuvo Teravainen
  4. Ryan Murray
  5. Alex Galchenyuk
  6. Matt Dumba
  7. Mikhail Grigorenko
  8. Morgan Rielly
  9. Griffin Reinhart
  10. Andrei Vasilievski

Craig Button

  1. Nail Yakupov
  2. Matt Dumba
  3. Filip Forsberg
  4. Morgan Rielly
  5. Alex Galchenyuk
  6. Griffin Reinhart
  7. Teuvo Teravainen
  8. Matt Finn
  9. Hampus Lindholm
  10. Malcom Subban

McKenzie’s list is the gold standard, Redline is the most frank, and Button tends to value offense over defense (he had Adam Larsson #8 a year ago).

None of the lists can agree on much beyond Nail Yakupov.

For fun, here’s my top 10:

  1. Nail Yakupov
  2. Ryan Murray
  3. Alex Galchenyuk
  4. Mikhail Grigorenko
  5. Morgan Rielly
  6. Griffin Reinhart
  7. Matt Dumba
  8. Filip Forsberg
  9. Pontus Aberg
  10. Radek Faksa

NATION RADIO hits the airwaves today at noon on Team 1260. Guests scheduled to appear:

  • Scott Cullen tsn’s numbers guy. We’ll talk about the Oilers off-season and what it might look like.
  • Kent Simpson has enjoyed  a bird’s eye view of the Oil Kings playoff run and we’ll talk about playoff hockey in Edmonton.
  • Benjamin Massey is always funny and articulate whether talking Oilers or soccer. We’ll talk Oilers, FC Edmonton, Whitecaps and more.
  • Kent Wilson will talk Flames, Oilers and Canucks plus a fine article he wrote about content over style that is well worth the read.
  • Jim Byers, pbp man for the OKC Barons. Some interesting things are happening in the American south.

You can reach us via the comments section below and you can email us at nationradio@theteam1260.com and of course we live twitter @ItsNationRadio or lowetide_

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104 Responses to "2012 Draft: The Top 10"

  1. anonymous says:

    And one position hasn’t changed for 2 years. I hope the oilers play it safe this year, organizational need is not wise with the first pick especially with trying to project a defenseman. Packages also should not be an option, who looks back fondly on the package we got for some of our players in the 90′s? The rangers maybe.

  2. bookje says:

    Prediction – weeks of speculation about the Oilers trading the pick or taking someone other than Nail Yakupov, followed by last minute speculation about trades, all culminating with the Oilers picking Yakupov.

  3. Ducey says:

    Button is prone to outsmarting himself – so he makes some weird predictions. Dumba and Reinhart are too high on his list. Here is his top 15 from 2009:

    1 Hedman
    2 Tavares
    3 Duchene
    4 Kane
    5 MPS (he compared him to John Tonelli !)
    6 Cowen
    7 Schenn
    8 Jacob Josefson ?
    9 OEL
    10 Glennie
    11 Kreider
    12 Kadri
    13 Kulikov
    14 Kassian
    15 Rundblad

  4. Lowetide says:

    He’s certainly math’s favorite.

  5. Oilcountry says:

    Every time I see buttons list it reminds why he is no longer a GM

  6. edwards_daddy says:

    LT, how much do you think the Oilers would have scouted Galchenyuk in his per-draft year? If the Oilers traded down to five, would they take him if he was still on the board?
    Surely he’s too much of a gamble for a GM like Tambellini.

  7. Lowetide says:

    edwards_daddy:
    LT, how much do you think the Oilers would have scouted Galchenyuk in his per-draft year? If the Oilers traded down to five, would they take him if he was still on the board?
    Surely he’s too much of a gamble for a GM like Tambellini.

    I honestly don’t think Galchenyuk makes it to 5th overall. It’s so tough to know what an NHL team will do with these injuries to Galchenyuk, Rielly and even Yakupov who didn’t look great after coming back from the knee injury.

  8. Bad Seed says:

    Lowetide,

    Gregor had an interesting article on Galchenyuk. I don’t buy into the “Russians are all bad” thing but the Oilers might & he seems the least Russian out of the big 3. What say you, Lowetide? He seems like the total package with the scout in the article comparing him to Toews.

  9. Lowetide says:

    Bad Seed:
    Lowetide,

    Gregor had an interesting article on Galchenyuk.I don’t buy into the “Russians are all bad” thing but the Oilers might & he seems the least Russian out of the big 3.What say you, Lowetide?He seems like the total package with the scout in the article comparing him to Toews.

    Well I have him third on my list and if he’d been healthy for 20 games it might be higher. There’s risk in all of these guys, and the ones with injury concerns are the most dynamic. Toronto might end up with the best player in this draft by standing pat.

  10. ItsTheBGB says:

    Hey LT,

    I still think you’re too high on Griffin Reinhart. Sure, he might be a top 10 pick, but if he’s top 7 you can colour me shocked. Yes, he’s a big body, but the offense probably won’t be there in the NHL. The more I read about Murray, Grigorenko and Galchenyuk, the more I think Stu has a super difficult task. I wouldn’t mind taking Grig or Galch first. Center depth is always the most valuable.

  11. Lowetide says:

    ItsTheBGB:
    Hey LT,

    I still think you’re too high on Griffin Reinhart. Sure, he might be a top 10 pick, but if he’s top 7 you can colour me shocked. Yes, he’s a big body, but the offense probably won’t be there in the NHL. The more I read about Murray, Grigorenko and Galchenyuk, the more I think Stu has a super difficult task. I wouldn’t mind taking Grig or Galch first. Center depth is always the most valuable.

    Yeah, that’s probably fair. I like Reinhart for his bloodlines and because he’s close and we get lots of reporting on him. Still, I think he’s going to be a very good one and would love to see him as an Oiler.

  12. Bad Seed says:

    Lowetide,

    And with the mono issues with Grigorenko (reminds me of Couterier), anyone one of these 3 might be a gold chip or even all 3. I wasn’t in favour of trading down but if the Oilers could pry Gardiner away for the leafs pick for Gagner & their No 3, they might have a real sweet day landing a defenceman & a top flight center. KInd of like the Eskies wheeling & dealing the other day, which you’d never have seen that putz Macciocia do.

  13. Lowetide says:

    I don’t think the Leafs would give up #5 and Gardiner, hell I can’t see them trading Gardiner at all (Anaheim should be shot for dealing that guy).

    Last year, we were pretty sure RNH, Larsson, Landeskog and Huberdeau would go in the top 5. This year, I think we can be certain about Yakupov, Murray, Grigorenko and Galchenyuk appears to be this year’s Huberdeau (late emerging and climbing right up to the top of the list).

  14. Bad Seed says:

    Lowetide,

    My mistake in thinking leafs had #3. That’s too low to trade down to.

    Would you think CBJ takes Galchenyuk since he’s less risky than the other two from a KHL standpoint? You’ve gotta think that all GM’s know how risky it is taking a defenceman that early.

  15. Lowetide says:

    If I’m a betting man and no one trades up or down, I’d say it might go:

    1. EDM Yakupov
    2. CBJ Murray
    3. MON Galchenyuk
    4. NYI Dumba
    5. TOR Grigorenko

  16. ItsTheBGB says:

    I’m wondering if we’re going to be looking back on this draft and seeing Yakupov like Ovechkin, Grigorenko as Malkin and Galchenyuk as Toews…. Who would you rather have? I have to say tie goes to center.

  17. Lowetide says:

    It’s such a tough decision because everything’s all over the map. Galchenyuk at 16? That’s insane. MBS is going to earn his coin this summer.

  18. DSF says:

    Lowetide:
    If I’m a betting man and no one trades up or down, I’d say it might go:

    1. EDM Yakupov
    2. CBJ Murray
    3. MON Galchenyuk
    4. NYI Dumba
    5. TOR Grigorenko

    Two very large elephants in the room in Rick Nash and Roberto Luongo.

    I would expect Columbus’ pick could be in play as part of a Nash deal and, if Luongo is headed to Toronto, Burke’s pick could be a wild card.

  19. ItsTheBGB says:

    “MBS is going to earn his coin this summer.”

    Let’s hope to hell he does, Lotto screw ups are the most costly to a franchise.

  20. Lowetide says:

    DSF: If Howson was running the show, maybe. But Patrick isn’t going to start a rebuild by trading #2 overall. As for Luongo, I can see Toronto but #5 overall? Hmmm. Seems a little rich when you factor in the fact that Sweden’s annual GNP is owed to Bobby and the Luongo’s over the next 400 years.

  21. fuzzy muppet says:

    I think the logical trade partner is Montreal. The Oilers would be assured of getting either Murray or Galchenyuk there.

    That’s assuming Montreal wants to move up for Yakupov. If the Oilers drop any lower , they miss out in the guys they need.

    i still think taking Yak is the way to go, but I’d settle for Yuk/murray and Tinordi/lLeblanc and some later picks.

  22. DSF says:

    Lowetide:
    DSF: If Howson was running the show, maybe. But Patrick isn’t going to start a rebuild by trading #2 overall. As for Luongo, I can see Toronto but #5 overall? Hmmm. Seems a little rich when you factor in the fact that Sweden’s annual GNP is owed to Bobby and the Luongo’s over the next 400 years.

    I’m not sure the Blue Jackets can afford a traditional rebuild in that market.

    I would think the #2 pick will be available for the right package of established young players and, of course, Nash being available complicates things.

    I don’t think Luongo and his contract would alone be worth a #5 pick but Burke has a history of swinging very big multi player deals so it could be in play in that scenario.

  23. Lowetide says:

    Nash can be traded before, during and after the draft. The only reason Columbus might combine the two is for an overpay and I believe Nash has given them a list of teams he’ll go to. Why would Patrick limit himself? He’s too smart for that.

    Burke has no history in signing crazy long term deals and although he’s dealt for some this deal is the titanic (well, DiPietro is the titanic, maybe Luongo’s is the Hindenburg).

  24. Woodguy says:

    I

    bookje:
    Prediction – weeks of speculation about the Oilers trading the pick or taking someone other than Nail Yakupov, followed by last minute speculation about trades, all culminating with the Oilers picking Yakupov.

    Man I hope so.

    If you want to address the D fine, make a trade after you draft Yak, but for crying-in-the-sink you MUST take the consensus #1 overall.

    I can see Burke making 5th overall part of a Nash package, but no way its part of Luongo package.

    I actually think that LOLongo’s cap hit is much more palatable and commensurate with what he brings, but I think Nash commands a bigger price.

  25. DSF says:

    Lowetide:
    Nash can be traded before, during and after the draft. The only reason Columbus might combine the two is for an overpay and I believe Nash has given them a list of teams he’ll go to. Why would Patrick limit himself? He’s too smart for that.

    Burke has no history in signing crazy long term deals and although he’s dealt for some this deal is the titanic (well, DiPietro is the titanic, maybe Luongo’s is the Hindenburg).

    Luongo’s contract, in effect, has another 6 years to run at $6.7M (cap hit $5.3M) and then drops away to an easy and cheap buyout number.

    Dipietro’s still has 9 years left and was not front loaded.

    If Luongo can get the Leafs into the playoffs, playoff revenue alone would pay for his contract.

    Looks like a pretty smart bet to me.

  26. dulock says:

    I’m going to bet that despite all the talk of the Oilers needing defence that they load up on forwards at the draft. They have two goalies, five defenceman, and only three forwards to sign to contracts in summer of 2013 or later. Factor in that they have currentlyy 3 non-pro goalies, 8 non-pro D and only 6 non-pro forwards and it’s looking like the organization will have to take more forwards in this draft.

  27. Lowetide says:

    dulock:
    I’m going to bet that despite all the talk of the Oilers needing defence that they load up on forwards at the draft.They have two goalies,five defenceman, and only three forwards to sign to contracts in summer of 2013 or later. Factor in that they have currentlyy 3 non-pro goalies, 8 non-pro D and only 6 non-pro forwards and it’s looking like the organization will have to take more forwards in this draft.

    Well, they also have to have a place for these guys, but you’re right they can draft forwards who are bpa and trade from strenth to address weakness.

    I bet they take a defenseman in the first round. Maybe not #1 but they’ll try to find a way to trade into the first round and grab one of these terrific defense prospects.

  28. oilersfan says:

    Dsf if you think Luongo has any trade value beyond a late first straight up for the salary or a decent player with a bad contract like RJ Umberger or something, you are delusional.

    Luongo doesn’t have negative value like Souray did but his contract is bad enough that his trade value will be very low.

    The Canucks are a good enough team though that the cap space will be very valuable so he is worth dumping for Columbus’s second or Unberger imo.

  29. Marc says:

    Anyone wondering about the empty seats in the Canada -US game (or the Canada – Slovakia game) it’s probably due to the frankly insane ticket pricing. The cheap seats for this game are 155 euros and the best seats are 175 euros. Tickets for yesterday’s game were 75 and 90 euros.

    Finns are big hockey fans but that’s a lot of money to watch a game your country isn’t involved in.

  30. DSF says:

    oilersfan:
    Dsf if you think Luongo has any trade value beyond a late first straight up for the salary or a decent player with a bad contract like RJ Umberger or something, you are delusional.

    Luongo doesn’t have negative value like Souray did but his contract is bad enough that his trade value will be very low.

    The Canucks are a good enough team though that the cap space will be very valuable so he is worth dumping for Columbus’s second or Unberger imo.

    Don’t think I said Luongo was worth a high first.

    If you read carefully, you’ll see I actually said that the Nash and Luongo situations may complicate what happens at the draft.

    Nash is likely to get moved for a package of players and picks and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a multi player deal to resolve the Luongo situation since cap hits may need to be balanced.

    Not sure how you figure Umberger would be involved since I would think Columbus would be close to the last place Luongo would end up.

  31. Woodguy says:

    oilersfan,

    Luongo doesn’t have negative value like Souray did but his contract is bad enough that his trade value will be very low.

    DSF is right in that its essentially a 6 year contract at 5.3MM cap, actual $ $6.7.

    Given that the cap is $64MM now and expected to go up due to record NHL revenues (new CBA aside), this is not a terrible contract.

    The buy-out is cheap and easy in year 7.

    LOLongo and this contract have value.

  32. ItsTheBGB says:

    I wouldn’t mind the Oilers acquiring him, I just would hate to see whoever we have to give up light us up for 15 years.

  33. dulock says:

    Lowetide,

    I agree that they’ll take a defenceman high, possibly two but they are likely hesitant to sign Blain and Davidson because of the potential that they want to sign four or five D next summer. They could be losing prospects for nothing just due to the positions they are drafting

  34. cabbiesmacker says:

    Bad Seed:
    Lowetide,

    .KInd of like the Eskies wheeling & dealing the other day, which you’d never have seen that putz Macciocia do.

    Of course Macciocia probably wouldn’t have traded Ricky Ray either.

  35. Lowetide says:

    cabbiesmacker: Of course Macciocia probably wouldn’t have traded Ricky Ray either.

    The Eskimos drafted great talent but there’s a risk because if they don’t end up with the Eskimos that’s a high price to pay. Plus SK ended up with two of the better players in the draft (#1 overall and that receiver later on)

  36. Bad Seed says:

    cabbiesmacker,

    No, he ended up trading the number #1 overall for spare parts. He’d never give up Ricky, he was his boy. Trouble was, Ricky can’t/won’t throw the ball more than 10 yards. This is the fukken CFL!

  37. commonfan14 says:

    Woodguy: The buy-out is cheap and easy in year 7.

    Unless CapGeek is lying to me, a Luongo buyout after the 2017-18 season would result in the following cap hits:

    2018-19: $2,534,667
    2019-20: $4,298,667
    2020-21: $4,916,667
    2021-22: $4,916,667
    2022-23: $583,333
    2023-24: $583,333
    2024-25: $583,333
    2025-26: $583,333

    Even in 2020s dollars and cap limits, $4-5 million could equal a useful roster player that would have to be sacrificed for 3 straight seasons.

    It isn’t that easy to absorb.

  38. DSF says:

    commonfan14: Unless CapGeek is lying to me, a Luongo buyout after the 2017-18 season would result in the following cap hits:

    2018-19: $2,534,667 2019-20: $4,298,667 2020-21: $4,916,667 2021-22: $4,916,667 2022-23: $583,333 2023-24: $583,333 2024-25: $583,333 2025-26: $583,333

    Even in 2020s dollars and cap limits, $4-5 million could equal a useful roster player that would have to be sacrificed for 3 straight seasons.

    It isn’t that easy to absorb.

    Those numbers are calculated if he was bought out now…not 6 years from now.

    If he is bought out in 2018, the amount of salary remaining is $6.9 million.

    2/3 of that $6.9 million ($4.5 million) would be counted against the cap spread over the remaining 4 years of his contract.

    Buyout cap hit at that point is just over $1.1 million.

  39. Ribs says:

    Ricky Ray is a top three guy in the CFL. He has his warts but you don’t get a large pool to pick from in this league.

    Was Pontus Aberg the guy with the nice scoring numbers that no one talks about?

  40. fuzzy muppet says:

    DSF,

    I think TB is the landing spot for Luongo. Straight up for #10 overall.

    Seems fair. The changes of that pick becoming a better NHLer than Luongo are slim. There’s little risk (besides money) from Tampa’s perspective and it solves their biggest issue: Goaltending

  41. stevezie says:

    This is the worst year for the Canucks to take Luongo to Market. Elliot resigning (?) helps them, but even thent here’s still Vokoun and Harding, out there for free, plus a slough of good journeymen. I still thnk Luongo gets more flak than he deserves and he is definitely the best goalie available this summer (unless Thomas is really out there, in which case they’re screwed) but his contract sucks so much. They’re probably better off trading Schnieder for plenty and keeping Lu, but it’s too far gone for that.

    That’s why I see him going to Tampa, they’re in the same position Philly was last summer. “Fuck it, just fix the goaltending, I don’t care how, just fix it.”

    If they can get Malone and a 2nd that’s a win. They might end up having to give him to anyone who’ll take him and calling the cap space the return. I’m surprised the Nash rumours are as high as they are. Contracts are important.

  42. misfit says:

    I think one of the most intriguing things in this year’s draft is the inexplicable drop of Jacob Trouba from last year. He was a top 5 lock all of last year and his game seems to have improved a great deal since then, yet he only appears on one of the above top 10 lists.

    I would still put him firmly in the top 5 prospects in this draft, myself.

  43. commonfan14 says:

    DSF: Those numbers are calculated if he was bought out now…not 6 years from now.

    It’s not my website, but here’s what CapGeek says:

    Roberto Luongo is 39 years old on the buyout date of June 15, 2018, setting the buyout ratio at 2/3 and the total buyout cost at $4,666,667 spread over 8 years. His contract was originally valued at $64,000,000 beginning in 2010 and ending in 2022, with $7,000,000 remaining from the buyout year forward. The following is a season-by-season breakdown of the buyout.

    Buyout Cap Hit:
    2018-19: $2,534,667
    2019-20: $4,298,667
    2020-21: $4,916,667
    2021-22: $4,916,667
    2022-23: $583,333
    2023-24: $583,333
    2024-25: $583,333
    2025-26: $583,333

  44. DSF says:

    commonfan14: It’s not my website, but here’s what CapGeek says:

    Roberto Luongo is 39 years old on the buyout date of June 15, 2018, setting the buyout ratio at 2/3 and the total buyout cost at $4,666,667 spread over 8 years. His contract was originally valued at $64,000,000 beginning in 2010 and ending in 2022, with $7,000,000 remaining from the buyout year forward. The following is a season-by-season breakdown of the buyout.

    Buyout Cap Hit:
    2018-19: $2,534,667
    2019-20: $4,298,667
    2020-21: $4,916,667
    2021-22: $4,916,667
    2022-23: $583,333
    2023-24: $583,333
    2024-25: $583,333
    2025-26: $583,333

    Makes no sense.

  45. Traktor says:

    I’m back on the Murray bandwagon.

  46. jfry says:

    @trak, are you kidding?

  47. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: Well, they also have to have a place for these guys, but you’re right they can draft forwards who are bpa and trade from strenth to address weakness.

    I bet they take a defenseman in the first round. Maybe not #1 but they’ll try to find a way to trade into the first round and grab one of these terrific defense prospects.

    Really? Teams are trading away their young franchise centres and dmen? They would rather give up an elite player who plays down the middle for an elite winger? Assuming a GM somehow has an excess of these players and would even talk to you, how much of an overpay would that take?

    And I thought the scouting reports were stating that there were no “terrific defensemen” this year? Some solid guys but nothing high end?

  48. Lowetide says:

    spoiler: Really?Teams are trading away their young franchise centres and dmen?They would rather give up an elite player who plays down the middle for an elite winger? Assuming a GM somehow has an excess of these players and would even talk to you, how much of an overpay would that take?

    And I thought the scouting reports were stating that there were no “terrific defensemen” this year? Some solid guys but nothing high end?

    I’m not sure of your point, spOILer. I’m saying the Oilers can keep drafting forwards, but eventually will have to add defensemen by trade (or free agency but that doesn’t seem to be a management skill.

    Redline says there are no top end guys, but I think there are some scouts who regard Ryan Murray as special. We’ll see.

  49. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: I’m not sure of your point, spOILer. I’m saying the Oilers can keep drafting forwards, but eventually will have to add defensemen by trade (or free agency but that doesn’t seem to be a management skill.

    Redline says there are no top end guys, but I think there are some scouts who regard Ryan Murray as special. We’ll see.

    Well part of what I’m saying is that I think it is a bit of a myth that one can draft the BPA and trade for need, if one’s need is in greater demand than that BPA. I think it is difficult to trade elite wingers for elite dmen or centres. I’m not as comforted by the thought of taking BPA and trading for need later. Defensemen are probably easier to obtain by trade than centres though.

    That said, if there’s a clear winner in the draft… a noticeable gap in quality, I think you have to take that player. With most picks, I don’t think that’s the case, but it does appear to be at the top end of this draft (according to reports).

  50. DeadmanWaking says:

    If Luongo can get the Leafs into the playoffs, playoff revenue alone would pay for his contract.

    Yes, but the loudheads never remember it this way a year or two later. Even in simple cases. Pisani’s contract was a belated even-up. What are 14 playoff goals worth? He sure wasn’t paid at that level while his eyes were glowing. Then he was given a spiff on the next contract to show that the team rewards out-of-skull performance when the chips are down, even if they don’t have to in the game of GM out-chintzmanhood (you’re only as good as your last plunder). I viewed it as a professional gesture, designed to send a good signal to players elsewhere in the league–and to take some of the stench off the Comrie moneygrub.

    But then you read threads of ire about Oiler management being incapable of simple math, and the Pisani contract is mooted in the same fist full of coins as the real stinkers.

    DSF is among the worst here at throwing figures at the wall with a whole lot of forgetting. So which is it? Inventive accounting up front to seize an opportunity, or paint-stripper accounting after the fact? A conservative or insecure GM will avoid inventive accounting even if he believes it is best for the team, because of the tendency of quick forgetting among the loudheads after the wheel turns. That can cost you your job. Is that what we want? Insecure management who won’t seize the main chance out of fear of short term optical reversal?

    Horcoff got an extra million or three because Lowe had his ringer turned off (or his fingers in his ears) and didn’t realize it until too late. This was a large circumstantial adjustment. The team valued over-paying Horcoff against the embarrassment of icing a team in October completely Jaked. Painting yourself into a corner is a completely different class of mental error than not being able to correctly evaluate a player, or work out simple contract math. I believe the corner-painting was a group effort with Katz going “I don’t believe you.” and Lowe insisting “No, really.” I account that to a novice owner trying to impose the standards of business accountability he used in amassing his fortune, not realizing a sports league is necessarily a little different. He learned his lesson early. That’s how real businessmen work, the kind that amass fortunes. They make a lot of mistakes, but they make them quickly, then reassess. You write-off a Horc or two and move on.

    That doesn’t stop the loudheads from showing up with the petrified tea leaves claiming that the Oiler management team has no notion of accountability whatsoever, when really the problem was that they had two incompatible standards of accountability (both on the hardcore side of the fence), and neither side would budge until the Horcoff overpay snapped them back to their senses (ouch, this is not going to play well, and we’re going to wear it for years). I prefer to view Horcoff as a tube of swimsuit glue, not a testament to appallingly bad horse-trading prowess. But you’ll never stop a discussion forum from selling one as the other in the exchange of molten cannon slag. Our vain and combative overlords needed the glue post EIG because they had two hotheads pulling the fabric in different directions, neither giving a quarter inch, both trying to achieve the lowest possible coefficient of drag–and proud of it until the fabric snapped.

    Another problem with contract asterisks is that the arbitration panel for RFA disputes is packed with DSF-types. It’s almost an obligation of the role to work with just the numbers in black and white, although they can trim back a few egregious outliers in a show of mock statistical prudence. You might ask them afterwards over beers and they’ll go “yeah, sure, we know all that (the context of management clusterruffage), but it’s not our mandate to behave as if we do”. DSF, unfortunately, is a myope of a different hue.

    At first, [Volta] embraced animal electricity. However, he started to doubt that the conductions were caused by a specific electricity intrinsic to animals. Volta believed that the contractions depended on the metals Galvani used to connect nerves and muscles in his experiments. Volta’s investigations led shortly to the invention of an early battery, but not by Galvani, who did not perceive electricity as separable from biology. Galvani did not see electricity as the essence of life, which he regarded vitalistically. Galvani believed that the animal electricity came from the muscle. Galvani’s associate Alessandro Volta, in opposition, reasoned that the animal electricity was a physical phenomenon caused by rubbing frog skin and not a metallic electricity. While, as Galvani believed, all frogs contain electrical power, specifically toads.

    Hey, Luigi, why do you stick the probe into the sciatic nerve? Because that’s what makes the leg jump. Not without insight, yet ultimately founded in a strange conception.

    The most daring decisions (and often the most successful) are the ones justified by an unusual context that runs against the grain. These same decisions get you crucified in short order in they don’t pan out, though a nearly universal trick of human memory: positive justifications are dimly perceived through negative outcomes after the fact.

    Before Burke became a lawyer, did he perform a tour of duty in Iraq putting out oil fires by attaching sticks of dynamite to swinging ropes? That would be the proper credential for taking on the Luongo contract.

    The thing about Barker, if the full miracle reversal had actually occurred, he could have become that one extra piece that gets you a win in G7 SCF instead of a loss. The downside was a chunk of change and an ulcer of golden opportunity for MBS.

  51. Lowetide says:

    spoiler: Well part of what I’m saying is that I think it is a bit of a myth that one can draft the BPA and trade for need, if one’s need is in greater demand than that BPA. I think it is difficult to trade elite wingers for elite dmen or centres. I’m not as comforted by the thought of taking BPA and trading for need later.Defensemen are probably easier to obtain by trade than centres though.

    That said, if there’s a clear winner in the draft… a noticeable gap in quality, I think you have to take that player. With most picks, I don’t think that’s the case, but it does appear to be at the top end of this draft (according to reports).

    Ah, okay. I understand. My basic point was if fans want Yakupov that’s cool but then they can’t be angry when the Oilers trade Jordan Eberle for a defenseman.

  52. franksterra says:

    Spoiler, I guess It’s all in how you define elite in reference to the need you’re trying to fill. You couldn’t get Malkin for Eberle, but you could get J Staal or Getzlaf. You couldn’t get Chara or Doughty, but you could get Del Zotto, etc. My hope would be that with RNH as #1 you could do well with a non-elite but still great ‘other’ C (and yes an upgrade over Gagngerener). Btw I’m not suggesting we trade Ebs…

  53. gd says:

    Lowetide,

    LT,

    I’m not sure it’s so much the fans saying pick Yak, but history and stats. He is the consensus BPA by a wide margin, he outscored one of the other top 5 by 18 pts in their 16 yr old season, he finished 4th in OHL scoring in his 16 yr old season, history says forwards are much easier to project at 17, so unless MBS thinks Murray is as good as Doughty we have to take Yak.

    My sense is we are more likely to have one of the top 4 have their career derailed by injury than traded for an elite Dman, but hey this city has seen Gretzky traded so I think it could handle any trade. My hope is the Oil study how the Rangers and Caps developed their D, as those teams have guys with similar pedigrees to the guys in our system and now have top 5 in the league Ds.

  54. spoiler says:

    franksterra:
    Spoiler, I guess It’s all in how you define elite in reference to the need you’re trying to fill.You couldn’t get Malkin for Eberle, but you could get J Staal or Getzlaf.You couldn’t get Chara or Doughty, but you could get Del Zotto, etc.My hope would be that with RNH as #1 you could do well with a non-elite but still great ‘other’ C (and yes an upgrade over Gagngerener).Btw I’m not suggesting we trade Ebs…

    Trading Eberle would make me very angry.

    But to your point… Eberle and Tavares had similar production this year. Would the Isles trade Tavares if you called them up and offered Eberle?

  55. Traktor says:

    Lowetide: Ah, okay. I understand. My basic point was if fans want Yakupov that’s cool but then they can’t be angry when the Oilers trade Jordan Eberle for a defenseman.

    I’ll be mad if they trade Eberle for a defender. Gagner and Hemsky not so much.

    I’m not sure how much value Gagner and Hemsky have but a smart GM would have moved them a while ago.

  56. godot10 says:

    What is this BPA by a wide margin nonsense. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was also the unanimous #1 BPA by a wide margin. It didn’t mean Landeskog or Larsson or Couturier suck.

    Yakupov isn’t Stamkos. It is arguable if he is even the equivalent of Hall (who led his team to two Memorial Cups, or Nugent-Hopkins) both of who would probably be ranked and picked ahead of Yakupov.

    Because there are so few top forwards in this draft, and so few Canadian forwards, Yakupov is being over-rated, and because there are so many defensemen of varying types and abilities, Murray is being underrated. Murray is also suffering from Couturier syndrome.

    Yakupov isn’t Stamkos. Murray had the largest role of a draft eligible defenseman for Canada at the World Juniors since Drew Doughty. The gap between Yakupov and Murray is undoubtedly far closer than the gap between Stamkos and Doughty.

  57. godot10 says:

    MacGregor is saying there is a top five, not Snow White and the 4 dwarves.

  58. Traktor says:

    jfry:
    @trak, are you kidding?

    I’m not going to be disappointed either way.

    My first choice would be to take Yakupov and trade Gagner and Hemsky but I don’t think that will happen.

  59. stevezie says:

    Lowetide,

    I would rather the Oilers have to decide which of their elite wingers they’ll trade for defence than wonder why they took a good number three d-man who won’t reach his ceiling until he’s 23 and Hall has already ran off to a winner.

    Murray has his strengths and I sure can see the appeal of the two G centers. I just think Nail is the safest pick. Considering the youth we already have we can afford to take the second best player in the draft, but we can’t afford not to get one of the best players. Nail’s scouting report sound like he has a motor to match Hall, so I like the idea of putting them on off-setting lines and wearing defenders out.

    Let’s keep in mind it sure looks like we’ve already got our elite offensive center. Needing a cornerstone D doesn’t make Murray that guy, especially not on our timeline.

  60. Traktor says:

    How many undrafted players (17 and 18) have played in the WC?

    Bruce?

  61. Lowetide says:

    Stevezie: I agree. Yakupov is the best talent available. If the knee is fine then they should take him.

  62. "Steve Smith" says:

    Traktor,

    That’s a fair question, but I’d rather see it qualified by “…for a contender”. I suspect that Denmark takes whoever it can get.

  63. Maverick says:

    I am still pulling for the Oil to take a Center instead of another winger. I know Yakupov is the player ranked the highest over the past year, but I still would rather make a deal and get Galchenyuk. What happens if Edmonton and Montreal make a minor deal; Edmonton 1st for Montreal’s 3rd and Montreal’s 33rd. Then if the opportunity arises perhaps Washington could deal their 10th pick for our 32nd and the 33rd pick and Omark?? At 10 perhaps Dumba or Reinhart?? I know it sounds crazy and I have had a few beverages but one can wonder sometimes….

  64. spoiler says:

    Traktor:
    How many undrafted players (17 and 18) have played in the WC?

    Bruce?

    .
    I can’t find any TOI for this game other than Keith led the team at about 22 and 1/2 minutes. Presumably Phrankeneuf got some minutes too.

    Report from TSN is that Murray was used sparingly till Vlasic got hurt in the 3rd.

  65. Lowetide says:

    Murray has now played 22:25 and iirc he was on for 17 minutes in game one so it would be about 5 minutes today.

  66. danny says:

    Let’s keep the age thing in perspective. Murray is 5 months younger than Martin Gernat. 2 months younger than Klefbom. He’s possibly on team Canada because the Oilers want to get a look at him and Lowe has the luxury to make happen.

    He’s a prospect but not a phenom.

    He’s 8 months younger than Adam Larsson. Defenseman can develop by sundial, no matter how promising the early arrows indicate.

  67. Lowetide says:

    5:16 for Murray, Methot at about 12 and a half minutes. That’s where the rest of the 17 minutes went.

  68. gogliano says:

    If the Oilers really want Murray, I’d be most partial to trying to swap the #1 for #2 with an Oilers option to flip #1 picks in 2013. Columbus was really terrible this year and I think the Oilers are out of the lottery next year. The “swap of picks” is an easier pill to swallow for a GM and Columbus can use a headliner #1 pick. I know the idea has been mentioned before but it is the only one that seems to bring back any real value–a non-neglible shot at the #1 next year and a very good shot at a top 5 pick. Not sure if CLB would think the price too steep but there has to be a sense of urgency in Ohio right about now and Yaks is the game changer in this year’s draft.

  69. Southern Oil says:

    gogliano:
    If the Oilers really want Murray, I’d be most partial to trying to swap the #1 for #2 with an Oilers option to flip #1 picks in 2013.Columbus was really terrible this year and I think the Oilers are out of the lottery next year.The “swap of picks” is an easier pill to swallow for a GM and Columbus can use a headliner #1 pick.I know the idea has been mentioned before but it is the only one that seems to bring back any real value–a non-neglible shot at the #1 next year and a very good shot at a top 5 pick.Not sure if CLB would think the price too steep but there has to be a sense of urgency in Ohio right about now and Yaks is the game changer in this year’s draft.

    I have been against trading down since the beginning. I think you have to take what the draft gives you and in this case it is Yakupov (as an aside I don’t like how some like to look back over three years in total and say we should have picked Seguin, Larsson, etc… One year at a time – BPA.) However if we could trade to #2 and have the option of swapping picks next year, I think you do it. Having said that, I don’t think there is a chance in hell that Columbus agrees to that – given where we both are in our rebuilds.

  70. Traktor says:

    Apparently Paul Kariya was the last draft eligible player to play for Canada or USA in the WC.

  71. DSF says:

    gogliano:
    If the Oilers really want Murray, I’d be most partial to trying to swap the #1 for #2 with an Oilers option to flip #1 picks in 2013.Columbus was really terrible this year and I think the Oilers are out of the lottery next year.The “swap of picks” is an easier pill to swallow for a GM and Columbus can use a headliner #1 pick.I know the idea has been mentioned before but it is the only one that seems to bring back any real value–a non-neglible shot at the #1 next year and a very good shot at a top 5 pick.Not sure if CLB would think the price too steep but there has to be a sense of urgency in Ohio right about now and Yaks is the game changer in this year’s draft.

    Problem with your theory is that it’s highly unlikely Columbus wants Yakupov.

    If anything, Columbus will be trading down.

  72. Traktor says:

    Isn’t Columbus trading their 1st and Nash to Toronto?

  73. DSF says:

    Traktor:
    Isn’t Columbus trading their 1st and Nash to Toronto?

    I wouldn’t think so.

    But this draft IMO will be much more active than usual.

    With Nash and Luongo in play and with Anaheim, San Jose and Vancouver likely to make major moves I think you’ll see Bettman announcing “we have a trade” much more often than in recent years.

    Of course, Tambellini is likely to sit there with his shit eating grin while the big boys actually improve their teams.

    Luckily, he can just sit there and take Yakupov but, if he doesn’t have a plan to address the worst defense in the NHL and below average goaltending, it won’t mean much.

  74. danny says:

    Godot,

    You emphatically state that Yakupov isn’t Stamkos. Other than the obvious genealogical truth, what do ou base that assurance on? I see that there’s more value in a center versus winger, but other than that I’m not sure where you get that separation.

    Yakupov had a slightly better 17yr season than Stamkos did, and was on pace to an equal draft year until he blew his knee (26GP 21G 32A). They’re both unanimous projections to go 1st in their drafts.

    Granted one has had an exceptional NHL start, but I’m not sure how you can grade minimal discrepancy between their respective pre draft results with such authority.

  75. spoiler says:

    Does anyone have an idea why Tom Gilbert isn’t on Team USA?

    Nice that Petry’s there though.

  76. Lowetide says:

    Maybe Lowe picked that team too. :-)

    Paajarvi scored with mere seconds left to tie the score OKC/SA

  77. Traktor says:

    MPS forces overtime with 10 seconds left in the game with his best Steve Stamkos impression.

  78. DSF says:

    spoiler:
    Does anyone have an idea why Tom Gilbert isn’t on Team USA?

    Nice that Petry’s there though.

    Gilbert isn’t a very good defenseman.

    He hasn’t been selected to play for team USA since 07/08.

    Nick Shultz hasn’t been considered since 06/07.

  79. spoiler says:

    DSF: Gilbert isn’t a very good defenseman.

    He hasn’t been selected to play for team USA since 07/08.

    Nick Shultz hasn’t been considered since 06/07.

    Yeah he was so shitty the Wild had him playing over 30 minutes a night.

    Do you have any evidence that he wasn’t considered?

  80. Schitzo says:

    DSF: Makes no sense.

    In the years where the contract would have been in effect, the cap hit is calculated as (original cap hit – actual cash savings that year).

    So he’s entitled to 2/3 of 7M, which is 4,666,666. That gets paid over 8 years at approx $580,000 per year. So in the last year of his deal, Vancouver saves $420,000 in cash.

    Cap hit is therefore 5,333,333 – 420,000 = 4.91M, give or take.

  81. DSF says:

    spoiler: Yeah he was so shitty the Wild had him playing over 30 minutes a night.

    Do you have any evidence that he wasn’t considered?

    How did the Wild make out?

    Gilbert was -5 in his short 20 game stint with them.

    Jack Johnson was +5 with the Jackets in his 25 GP.

    What were they thinking?

    Which of Johnson, Fowler, Goligoski, Faulk, Petry, Braun or Butler do you think Gilbert is superior to?

  82. DSF says:

    Lowetide:
    Things that make you go hmmmmm.

    http://www.edmontonjournal.com/health/MacT+king+second+chances/6573513/story.html

    Living out here on the coast, I get to hear McTavish quite often.

    A very smart man.

    Likely would do exceptionally well as an NHL GM.

  83. regwald says:

    Paajarvi scores with 10 seconds left to send the game into OT and then sets up Green for the winner in OT.

    Nicely done Magnus.

  84. spoiler says:

    DSF: How did the Wild make out?

    Gilbert was -5 in his short20 game stint with them.

    Jack Johnson was +5 with the Jackets in his 25 GP.

    What were they thinking?

    Which of Johnson, Fowler, Goligoski, Faulk, Petry, Braun or Butler do you think Gilbert is superior to?

    So… I take it you’re not going to answer the question. Which means you have no evidence.

  85. DSF says:

    spoiler: So… I take it you’re not going to answer the question. Which means you have no evidence.

    I have as much evidence as you do.

    Except for the embarrassing part where Gilbert hasn’t been called on to play for Team USA for the past 5 seasons.

    Maybe he has hemmoroids…or perhaps he just isn’t good enough.

    You pick.

  86. spoiler says:

    I never said I had any evidence. I was looking for evidence, some knowledge of the situation.

  87. DSF says:

    spoiler:
    I never said I had any evidence. I was looking for evidence, some knowledge of the situation.

    The evidence is obviously that he is never chosen to play for his country.

    When you consider that many U.S born defensemen like Suter, Shattenkirk, Erik Johnson, Keith Yandle, Matt Carle, John Carlson, Nik Leddy are also not playing, you can likely slot Gilbert into the pecking order.

  88. commonfan14 says:

    DSF: Those numbers are calculated if he was bought out now…not 6 years from now.

    If he is bought out in 2018, the amount of salary remaining is $6.9 million.

    2/3 of that $6.9 million ($4.5 million) would be counted against the cap spread over the remaining 4 years of his contract.

    Buyout cap hit at that point is just over $1.1 million.

    I didn’t really look at the second part here with DSF’s calculations the first time I saw the post, but his entire approach is just flat-out wrong. Incredibly so.

    It’s so inaccurate that it might be time to start double-checking OKC box scores just to make sure that MPS hasn’t actually been ripping it up this whole time.

    Luongo’s contract is not essentially a 6-year deal at all. A team can’t escape the full cap ramifications by buying him out, and the only “escape clause” is if he retires.

  89. Jesse says:

    Maybe it’s just the fact that elite scoters are probably the most valuable kind of player out there, but if the Oilers trade 1OV, or draft Yak and then trade him or eberle a year or two down the road, I will always follow the departed scoring wingers stats with longing eyes, wondering what could have been. I know these types of sacrifices are necessary, and who knows, such a trade could take the Oilers to a cup someday, but they are such a rarity that when you’re so close to having one all to yourself it’s hard not to get selfish. Stud D men are less shiny, and so they’re easier to pass up on, even if you are starving for that kind of player.

    From a PR perspective, I think it would make the most sense for the Oilers to take Yakupov, see what he turns into and in a couple years deal him. Like I said, as a fan this would hurt like hell but the fanbase would have had four years at that point to grow to love Hall and Ebs like family and if mgmt traded one of them away it would be much, much less popular. Plus, for better or for worse, Alberta fans will always feel closer to the boys who were born in western Canada.

  90. Woodguy says:

    commonfan14,

    It’s so inaccurate that it might be time to start double-checking OKC box scores just to make sure that MPS hasn’t actually been ripping it up this whole time.

    1g 1a 2pts +1 4 shots tonight.

    His goal was with 10 seconds left to send it to overtime, where Green scored the winner.

    Some people I follow on twitter watched/were at the game and said MPS was the best player on the ice.

    You’d never hear that from DSF though.

    Plante was +3. Nice to see. I still don’t think he’s fast enough to play in the NHL, but Todd Nelson raves about him all the time. Maybe he has a chance.

  91. eidy says:

    Watched the game tonight and MPS was the best player. Lander controlled the puck well and pitlick showed very well. Harti less noticeable. As for the d, it didn’t look good. I don’t know how much better they are with teubert, but they looked poor tonight. I would see if chorney and/or plante would stay on for an AHL contract, but otherwise would use their contract spot to davidson and blain. Toniht OKC looked like they had 4 NHL caliber players, all forwards.

    For San Antonio, Alex petrovic looked really strong. Howden didnt play enough to give an opinion on. Markstrom was quite good

  92. eidy says:

    Also MPS got post 30 seconds earlier with another nice one timer. He controlled the power play and looked very confident. Even did the gagner dangle earlier in the game. Trip to OKC seems to be helping his confidence

  93. "Steve Smith" says:

    MPS has never been invited to play for Team USA either.

  94. art vandelay says:

    DSF,
    Don’t bother.
    Gilbert was traded away, therefore he must be good, according to the desperate Oilers fan.
    See also: Hejda, Reasoner, and any number of useless plugs who’ve been dealt away over the years while the Oilers stink up the bottom of the standings.
    “I’d hate to see the guy turn into another Ray Whitney.”
    What was that, like 1978? Even Floyd’s over it by now.

  95. spoiler says:

    DSF: The evidence is obviously that he is never chosen to play for his country.

    When you consider that many U.S born defensemen like Suter, Shattenkirk, Erik Johnson, Keith Yandle, Matt Carle, John Carlson, Nik Leddy are also not playing, you can likely slot Gilbert into the pecking order.

    Never isn”t exactly accurate, is it? And what’s the point of adding unavailable players into this equation?

    I’m not saying he was or wasn’t. I would just like to know one way or the other. And if he was considered, was he asked, and if he was asked, why he declined.

    Just looking to see if there’s a story out there. The US process doesn’t get the same reporting as the Canadian one, so there isn’t much on the webs.

  96. spoiler says:

    The disagreement between those draft lists is quite something..

    I find Rielly quite intriguing. Is he really a point a game defenseman? His injury really cut the sample size. If he is a ppg guy, I think he has to be in the conversation for the MacGregor Five.

    Murray’s inclusion on the WC roster is a nice push by Lowe to get some more eval. And it should be good for the kid too. But going by his usage thus far, he might not be a guy who’s ready next season.

    Either way, I’m glad the org is getting a good look at this guy on the practice ice, in games, in the dressing room.

  97. spoiler says:

    Headline for this week’s Jim Matheson’s Hockey World: Murray making strong case for No. 1 pick.

    Some nice tidbits in there. Scouting quotes on Murray, stuff from Lowe, more WCs, MacT, Smyth, contract, and even a few items for FPB.

  98. spoiler says:

    From HW:[

    “…one NHL coach who has a fairly good team watched Murray and said “he could play in our top four right now,”

  99. Jesse says:

    Bohologo,

    What I think is ridiculous is how you missed my point entirely. I didn’t say that non-Western Canadians couldn’t be popular in Edmonton. My point is that it is easier to construct bullshit narratives about “good Canadian boys” and that Edmonton fans respond to that. I disagree that the average Oiler fan and resident of Northern Alberta is more cosmopolitan than that. The commenters on this and other similar blogs are not “average Oiler fans”, they are (for the most part) analytical, advanced stat loving, source-checking hobbyists. And even with that type of atmosphere and the pervasiveness of critical thinking spread throughout the Oilogosphere, you can still easily find comments that get around to saying, “Don’t pick Yakupov because of the ‘russian factor’,”. The hall-of-famer Terry freaking Jones just the other day tweeted something along the lines of “In light of the Radulov/AK shenanigans, Oiler mgmt will have to think very, very hard about taking Yakupov.” And this guy (and others like him) is where the “average Oiler fan” gets his/her information from.

    I don’t think that this is *right*, which is why I disclaimed my statement with “for better or worse”. And with the consistent drama and overblown rhetoric surrounding Russians, I think it would be easier for Kevin Lowe to sell Oiler fans on a Yakupov trade than on an Eberle trade. That was my main point.

    Of course, with all of this being speculation of a hypothetical situation that is two or three years down the road, all of this is a waste of breath anyway. *Sigh*

  100. Ducey says:

    Pitlick now second in AHL rookie scoring with 7 points in 6 games.

  101. bsmart says:

    lowetide,

    You put Forsberg right where I did, he plays an inferior league and is not lighting up the league. Also he had a pretty poor world junior. I am not impressed with his potential beyond a 3rd or 4th liner as his ceiling.

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