COLTEN TEUBERT 11-12: LOOKING FOR A LOVE

The Oilers are graduating defenseman to full time NHL employment about three at a time these days. The problem is making them stick as useful players.

Colten Teubert 11-12

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.20 (8th among Oil D)
  • 5×4 points per 60: nil
  • Qual Comp: 9th toughest among D
  • Qual Team: 7th best available among D
  • Corsi Rel: -5.1 (6th best among D)
  • Zone Start: 47.7% (3rd toughest among D)
  • Zone Finish: 39.1% (9th and worst among D)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 13 shots
  • Boxcars: 24gp, 0-1-1
  • Plus Minus: -5 on a team that was -26
  1. What do these numbers tell us? Although this isn’t a lot of playing time, there’s enough here for us to know Teubert is unready at this time.
  2. How can these numbers be better? Time. Teubert needs to play in the AHL for at least another season, and based on reports he’s showingwell there. Needs time.
  3. What kind of player is Teubert? Throwback type, pure defensive defender. Tough as nails, stand up guy, dependable, reliable, masher.
  4. Who will he replace? Teubert’s a righty and a tough guy, there’s no one on the roster like that currently. In terms of style he most closely resembles Theo Peckham.
  5. Where does he rank on the depth chart? Right now, I’d say that Smid-Petry, Whitney-Schultz, Sutton-Potter and Peckham are clearly ahead of him. Fedun is a wild card, Alex Plante is in there somewhere and of course there’s the possibility Edmonton picks a defenseman high at the draft. Let’s put him behind the NHLers and ahead of everyone else–he’s 8th on the depth chart now.
  6. So he’ll play more in the NHL this season? Hmm. It’s really hard to know because there should be so much change on the blue. IF Edmonton adds two NHL defensemen then Teubert would probably move down a little, but then again injuries happen so he’d be among the first callups.
  7. What’s the strongest part of his resume? Draft position.
  8. Seriously. Seriously. Mid-first round pick.
  9. Why would a team take him that high? Oilers took Plante in that range. Hey, defense is important. We can’t measure it like we can offense, we know it takes longer to develop and we know that it is inconsistent. But we can’t pretend it has no value. It does.
  10. What are his issues? Teubert’s former AHL coach Mark Morris: “Like most guys who enter the American Hockey League, the biggest challenge is making the reads. He is a strong skater, so if he makes a poor read he has the ability to eat up ground and shut people down. What I like about him is that he seems to get a piece of somebody every time he is on the ice, and he is a hard guy to play against. At times when he handles the puck, he might not make the best choice, but he keeps the game fairly simple. He is an old school defenceman in my books; the type of guy that everybody will appreciate over the course of time.He’s not going to wow you in the beginning, but I think over time he will prove that he is a force to be reckoned with and he can be a reliable, dependable defender.”
  11. What are his issues? He’s a limited package. Teubert is not a complete player, he won’t ever be a guy that a team can put in any situation. Which isn’t to say he has no value.
  12. What can he do? Penalty kill, enforce, clear the front of the net, he has a mean streak.
  13. What makes him unique? Well, if he can do those things and play a regular shift against tougher opponents then he’s useful. The Oilers need those guys, as well as the 2-way types.
  14. Teubert made a living as Eberle’s protection in Regina, maybe he will do it again in Edmonton. Yeah, well I think it’s better to have actual NHL players. I believe the best way to make opponents pay for stupidity is with a terrific powerplay.
  15. So enforcers have no value? Actual NHL players have value, and if Teubert can play AND be a deterrent to the stupid stuff without also being an idiot then it’s all bonus. Larry Robinson used to set the tone in every playoff with a thunderous hit right off the hop. The key though is that the physical player has to be able to play.
  16. Can he? We don’t know yet, he’s learning on the job.
  17. When will we know? Well, we’re still waiting on Peckham and he was drafted two summers before Teubert.
  18. So three more years? Prospects don’t develop along a straight line.
  19. Are there good signs? Sure. He’s played some NHL time and although he didn’t look ready Teubert did show enough to move up the depth chart. He’s played a lot in his first two pro seasons–105 AHL regular season games, 10 in the ECHL and 24 in the NHL. Plus he’s been in 6 AHL playoff games.
  20. Why do the Oilers like him so much? He’s a high draft pick, his skill set is somewhat unique on the roster (RH defender with toughness and size, plus good footspeed) and he’s perfect in age and experience to grow with this group.
  21. Will he be a crowd favorite? No doubt.
  22. Is he a comparable for someone like Jason Smith? That would be the outer marker. I’d say Matt Greene is a better style comp. We’ll see.
  23. Why this song? One of my favorites, always wondered why it never became more famous. Anyway, it’s about looking for a place to belong and the wish to be satisfied once there. I think that’s where Teubert is now. It might be Edmonton, it might not. Two years ago it was Los Angeles. Two years from now it could be Minsk. So many things happen so quickly when you’re 21 and it impacts the rest of your life substantially.

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41 Responses to "COLTEN TEUBERT 11-12: LOOKING FOR A LOVE"

  1. knighttown says:

    I gotta say, I’m getting a little more scared every day about the Russian factor. Radulov and Kostitsyn are the most obvious right now. Then you’ve got Sochi in 2012. To me the biggest concern is that teams are better without these guys in this new NHL version 2.0. Ovechkin playing 15 minutes a night behind Matt Hendricks and Jay Beagle is a sign of something. Good on him for keeping his mouth shut but there’s no chance this works out. Semin too. The NHL needs to decide whether a league where Jay Beagle is more effective than a motivated Alexander Ovechkin is good or bad or indifferent. I know where I stand.

    If I ran the KHL, I’d be trying everything to be the anti-NHL and as star-friendly as possible. I’d do bigger nets, zero obstruction and even consider 4-on-4. They’ll likely have Radulov, Kostitsyn(s) and Semin back home next year anyway but if they can cater to these guys will Ovechkin stay long term playing 3rd line minutes?

    So why are coaches doing this? One viewpoint is that this is the NHL playoffs and guys have to be able to battle through the traffic. Another viewpoint is that its gotten so damn hard to score in the playoffs that scoring has almost become “random”. Put pucks on the net. Crash the net. A massive amount of goals are scored on screens, defelections and rebounds. Dale Hunter (at the minimum) feels that Ovechkin and Semin are likely not going to score any highlight reel goals so it’s better to go with an army of faceless foot soldiers who are willing to put the puck on net and crash the net in the offensive end but also more than happy to put up a soccer style wall in the shooting lanes.

    Long term, it’s way cheaper too so teams like Phoenix and Nashville (and Ottawa and Florida) can compete and beat teams of stars.

    Look at the teams that are still playing. The only one with a star playing a starring role is Philly and Giroux. Let’s be clear, I’m not talking about power plays. They are more potent than ever with all that talent.

    It’s seems that the most important men in the NHL are the guys standing behind the bench. If you can get every guy to swallow a puck for you, you’ve got a chance to do something special. Dave Tippett, John Torterella, Barry Trotz, Darryl Sutter, Dale Hunter, Ken Hitchcock, Peter Laviolette. There is no question who runs hockey teams coached by these guys. Players get in line or they sit. Radulov, Ovechkin, Kostitsyn, Semin..they’ve all learned this and in Ovie’s case he’s done everything asked of him and still can’t cross the 16 minute mark.

    Where I’m going with this is that in a league where winning breeds imitation, the “in vogue” team will be a BIG TIME coach with an army of faceless warriors at his beck and call. Does this sound like the Edmonton Oilers to you at all?

    Believe me, I’m not complaining about the Oilers decisions. I’m finding everything in the second round painful; this is supposed to entertainment no? I hope the Oilers stay the course, draft Yakupov and try to collect the best players in the world. You’ve gotta think the masters of the NHL are worried sick about the new Dead Puck era commencing and will make the changes necessary, like the NFL does every year, to bring scoring back up into their target range.

  2. Matt.N says:

    It’s easy to say that defenseman develop by sundial or that prospects don’t develop along a straight line. Let’s compare him to his peer group.

    2008 defenseman taken in the first round.
    2. Doughty
    3. Bogosian
    4. Pieterangelo
    5. Schenn
    12. Myers
    13. Tuebert
    15. Karlsson
    17. Gardiner
    19. Sbisa
    20. Del Zotto
    23. Cuma
    27. Carlson

    Throw in Voyonov, Hamonic and Scandella from the second round. Even if you throw out the lottery picks as an unfair comparison he seems to be behind the curve to me.

    That all being said, I like the player and the skill set. I think his top end is as the anchor on a second pairing with a puck mover.

  3. Lowetide says:

    Matt N: We can’t really compare Teubert to any of the 2-way guys or the offensive defenders. Teubert will never be about goals and assists, he’ll be about saving goals or helping cut back on scoring chances. He was certainly NOT good value where they drafted him.

  4. stevezie says:

    knighttown,

    I think the best way to ramp up the offence is to limit each team to one coach. Maybe two. Goalies will get worse, systems will break down, shotblocking… will probably stay the same, but at least iot might get less synchronised. I don’t know how you’d enforce this, and I’d feel bad for the coaches who get fired, but this would work.

    Colton? I hope we’re a year away, because that will mean we’ve increased our pro depth.

  5. godot10 says:

    knighttown,

    The dynasty Oilers, Islanders, Canadiens, and Flyers and Bruins could be you any way you wanted to play against them. On the ice or in the alley. Game 1, Oilers Islanders 1984. 1-0.

    Ovechkin forgets his defensive responsibilities all the time. When Hunter doesn’t need a goal, he’d rather play the guys who are not going to give up a goal against. Ovechkin is an undisciplined player. Glen Sather gave a lot of tough love to Messier. The difference between Messier and Ovechkin is discipline.

    The coaching is better these days. Tikkanen and Kurri would cover up for Gretzky’s defensive lapses, and Lemaire for Lafleur’s, but the coaching is so much better today, that really doesn’t work anymore.

  6. Ethex says:

    Hey lowetide, long term reader for about 2 years now. First time poster.
    I was wondering who you thought would be a better bet to have a productive
    Career as a nasty defensive defence men, either dylan mcilrath or colten tuebert?

    Both were picked early in first round and have similar scouting reports
    Anyways i was just curious what your thoughts were, i remember you having
    An interesting take on mcilrath b4 his draft year.

  7. Lowetide says:

    Ethex:
    Hey lowetide, long term reader for about 2 years now. First time poster.
    I was wondering who you thought would be a better bet to have a productive
    Career as a nasty defensive defence men, either dylan mcilrath or colten tuebert?

    Both were picked early in first round and have similar scouting reports
    Anyways i was just curious what your thoughts were, i remember you having
    An interesting take on mcilrath b4 his draft year.

    McIlrath’s reputation (from what I read) was that he was an outstanding defensive player in his own end. A lot of the attention he got was for size and fighting ability, but he’s mammoth and if that defensive ability is true he’d be a better bet unless injury impacts him.

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2010/06/entry-draft-2010-get-your-motor-running.html

  8. spoiler says:

    2008 would have been a lovely year to be drafting.

  9. franksterra says:

    knighttown,

    There may be something there, but then look at Kovie and his back injections, sucking it up and playing great for NJ. Voynov rising for LA, Artemisov in NY. I’m not out off by drafting Nail, of Stu decides he is the right choice. I think the thing with our Oil is no matter who we draft, the brass must realise- just must- that other steps are required now, not in two years’ time but now- trades and FA signings, a precision deal to meet needs. Unleashing Yak (who i’m fine drafting), Nuge, Ebs, and Hall into battle with DD and a dozen maybes, might have beens and has beens is not a plan.

  10. Ryan says:

    Defensemen seem to be tricky from a draft standpoint as is patently obvious. Every team would love to have the complete defender like a 2006 Pronger etc. As we all know, there’s not nearly enough of these for more than a handful of teams to have one.

    For every Webber or Doughty, there’s four or five Tom Gilberts. It wasn’t until maybe last year where Oilers fans stopped complaining about his bloated contract based on a one-off year padded with 2nd assists. :)

    Or there’s the JayBo’s where a team like Calgary wins the Bouwmeester sweepstakes only to later regret the sticker price.

    Players like Ladi who looked great last season, took years of at bats to get to where he is today. We now have one year left on his contract and he’s due for a bigger pay day.

    For some, there’s such a small window between when they’re useful and when they’re finished (see Whitney, Ryan; Redden, Wade; etc). Others like Lubo or Lidstrom pay dividends for years while they keep going.

    I’ve read some convincing mathematical arguments in the past that suggest that in a cap world, it’s not useful to pay for offense from defense with the exception of the complete defenders or maybe having one or two (max) offensemen. See also: Edmonton, Oilers, 2009-10.

    I’m not sure, but it would seem to be that the best value would be to load up on cheap vets that still have some game left for the roster and draft for offensemen. (Instead of playing your Ladi Smid for years until he becomes useful for 2 value seasons, then you have to pay full market value.)

    Lordy if you can grab a Yandle in the 4rth round 105 overall, that’s like winning the lotto.

    I didn’t follow the draft at all back in 2003, but I’m curious how a player like Webber was picked in the second round #49 overall?

    Warning: Thinking of the 2003 draft is pretty depressing from an Oilers standpoint. We managed to parlay Zach Parise into JFJ and MAP as just one example. I could have thrown a dart twice at the top 2 round prospects and likely hit 2 high quality NHL players.

  11. Ryan says:

    Oops, forgot the point I was going to make…

    Basically, does it make sense for an organization such as the Oilers to give the at bats in the NHL level (and essentially field a player like Tueber who’s currently playing far below replacement level) with the hopes that he might one day reach the potential upside of a #4 or #6 dman? By the time he gets there (if he does), we might get one or two years max at a value price like Ladi. After that, we’ll be paying full freight.

    If he doesn’t reach whatever his projection is at the NHL level, we’ll have spent year(s) fielding a guy who’s below replacement level. If he hits his potential, we’ll have spent years getting him there only to maybe get rewarded with a value contract for a year or two.

    It sounds like a losing proposing to me, but that’s just my 2 cents.

  12. Matt.N says:

    Ryan:
    Oops, forgot the point I was going to make…

    Basically, does it make sense for an organization such as the Oilers to give the at bats in the NHL level (and essentially field a player like Tueber who’s currently playing far below replacement level) with the hopes that he might one day reach the potential upside of a #4 or #6 dman?By the time he gets there (if he does), we might get one or two years max at a value price like Ladi.After that, we’ll be paying fullfreight.

    If he doesn’t reach whatever his projection is at the NHL level, we’ll have spent year(s) fielding a guy who’s below replacement level.If he hits his potential, we’ll have spent years getting him there only to maybe get rewarded with a value contract for a year or two.

    It sounds like a losing proposing to me, but that’s just my 2 cents.

    See Greene, Matt as exhibit A.

  13. Ryan says:

    Matt.N: See Greene, Matt as exhibit A.

    Exactly. Maybe a smart team would load up on the Corey Potters of the world (not to play in the top 4 at the NHL level though).

    Mobile AHL defensemen in their late 20′s who have a clue are still a better option for a callup than a Teubert.

  14. godot10 says:

    You can’t expect what you need is going to be available in the store at an affordable price at the right time.

    You have to build everywhere, and make sure you have a few gaps as possible, so when you have to go to the store and buy or barter, you have both bargaining power and time.

    Physical, tough-as-nails 3rd pairing defensemen capable of being put out on the ice in any defensive situation if need be are an essentially component of contending teams.

    it helps if they come in the form of Denis Potvin, Chris Pronger, or Zdeno Chara, but sometimes they come in the form of Pierre Bouchard, Rick Chartraw, or Don Jackson, or something inbetween like Jason Smith, Bill Nyrop, or Colin White.

  15. godot10 says:

    Maybe Matt Greene’s slow development should be chalked up to a failure on the part of MacT and Huddy. Maybe they hung onto and relied on Smith and Staios too long.

    Matt Greene not being an Oiler seems to be a product of that long contract given to Staios, and the coaches not being able to move on to the younger guy.

    The Oilers organization was in a dysfunctional state at that point. They thought they were just one white whale or two away from contending, instead of realizing that the window was only open for that 2006 season. If we just replace Pronger….

  16. gd says:

    spoiler,

    To me the most fascinating part of the 2008 draft is how many of this years quarterfinalists missed on their 1st round picks.

    Nashville picked Colin Wilson 7th and Pickhard 18th

    LA picked Teubert 13th

    Wash picked Gustofson 21st just before Eberle

    NJ picked Tedenby 24th

    and Phoenix took Tikhonov 28th, plus you could probably argue that Boedker at 8th wasn’t a very good pick.

    plus Philly traded the Carlson pick for Steve Eminger and StL whiffed on their two early second rd picks.

    I’m not really sure what this means, but my gut says a lot of these teams’ window is shorter than it should be because of these misses.

  17. jfry says:

    KT, ovie is averaging over 21 mins a game in the series vs the rangers. your point about hunter playiing the beagles of the world holds, but lets not get carried away. hunter played AO 21, 13.5, 35 and 16 mins so far this series. game 2 was away and maybe a message being sent — don’t take minute and a half shifts in the second round. otherwise his minutes have been fine and msm is making a bigger deal of it than it ought to be. hunter is rolling 4 lines and the top three lines are getting almost identical ice time.

    godot, stop stating opinions like they’re facts. u have really strong ones, we all know. but they’re just opinions.mostly unfounded.

  18. Marc says:

    knighttown,

    The ‘Russian factor’ doesn’t exist. If you look at the players that are usually given as examples of reasons that a team might be wary of drafting a Russian, it’s clear that there are actually two or three entirely different concerns, each of which has some high profile Russian examples.

    The first is the ‘has elite tools but doesn’t work hard enough on defence and/or generally to be an effective NHL player’ concern. Guys like Filatov and Zherdev are the textbook Russian examples (though plenty of non Russians fall into this category ie. Shremp, Omark, Martindale, without it reflecting badly on their entire nation for some reason).

    The second is the ‘will take big bucks in the KHL instead of playing in the AHL or for a low value ELC in the NHL’ concern. Radulov is the poster boy for this concern, with Burmistrov looking like another possible example. This is the one concern that does actually seem to be much more prevalent among Russian players, with no really high profile examples from other countries that I can think of.

    Then you have the ‘selfish party boy’ concern. See Radulov and Kostisyn (or Mironov back in the day). Again you have plenty of non Russians fall into this category ie. Richards, Carter, Kane, without it reflecting badly on their entire nation for draft purposes though.

    Objectively, there is zero reason to think that any of these concerns actually apply to Yakupov. I have seen no scouting reports that indicate he’s skilled but doesn’t like to work. As a first overall pick he’ll earn close to $4M per year the moment he starts playing in the NHL, so he won’t obliged by the CBA to play for 3 years at a $1+M per when he could be making three times as much in the KHL, like Burmistrov will. He might be able to make a bit more in the KHL, but not three or four times as much. And I’ve heard no reports that he’s any more of a party animal than say, Eberle is.

    So there is no ‘Russian factor’ as far as Yakupov is concerned. Or at least there shouldn’t be.

  19. spoiler says:

    KT

    One nice difference between Kostitsyn, Radulov, CBJ Russian types and Yakupov & Galyenchuk is that both prospects are known to be gym rats and for their work off-ice and in practice. Their level of commitment to the game is one of their best traits. I don’t think there’s any attitude danger in either pick.

  20. nelson88 says:

    Marc,

    Marc,

    Some reasonable points but for last time can we please stop stating that the 1st overall pick will make close to $4MM/year. His cap hit will indeed be that but it is a heavily incentive loaded contract in which the player will be very likely not to make anywhere near that money. Unless of coarse you think he will win the Hart trophy in addition to the Calder and pretty much everything else.

  21. spoiler says:

    One thing that stands out in Teubert’s numbers is that he got zero sheltering for a raw rookie. His skating is a real plus for size, similar the Smid in that regard, which means all we’re waiting on is decision-making and experience to catch up to his body. He will be a player one day.

    And when he does claw his way into the league, hopefully our defence will be deep enough we can shelter him a little better.

  22. DSF says:

    Oilers pick plus Hemsky to Boston for Dougie Hamilton and Boston’s pick.

    Hamilton is exactly what the Oilers need.

    Thoughts?

  23. Jesse says:

    Marc,

    Thank you. You hit the nail on the head (pun). Aside from the temptation to play in the KHL, there’s really nothing extenuating about Russians that can’t be said for any other hockey nation. What bothers me is that tying “attitude issues” to every Russian prospect as a down arrow is highly bigoted. I’m not trying to fly a big “policital correctness” flag in everyone’s face, but honestly, think about how it would sound if you were talking about these people in any other context. “Oh, we’ve decided not to hire Alex, because, well… You know. He’s Russian and they have attitude issues.”

    I have no problem with discussing “the KHL factor”, because that actually has some grounding in reality, but if there is reasonable cause to think it wouldn’t be an issue (like with Yakupov and Galchenyuk), then it’s time to move on.

  24. Ribs says:

    DSF,

    I’m not sure you need to throw Hemsky in there, but it would make more sense than drafting Murray at #1.

  25. godot10 says:

    jfry:
    KT, ovie is averaging over 21 mins a game in the series vs the rangers. your point about hunter playiing the beagles of the world holds, but lets not get carried away. hunter played AO 21, 13.5, 35 and 16 mins so far this series. game 2 was away and maybe a message being sent — don’t take minute and a half shifts in the second round. otherwise his minutes have been fine and msm is making a bigger deal of it than it ought to be. hunter is rolling 4 lines and the top three lines are getting almost identical ice time.

    godot, stop stating opinions like they’re facts. u have really strong ones, we all know. but they’re just opinions.mostly unfounded.

    I see you needed to include two and a half overtime period to get his average over 20 minutes a game.

    Check out the time Ryan McDonagh has played, and the other Ranger defensmen.

  26. DSF says:

    Ribs:
    DSF,

    I’m not sure you need to throw Hemsky in there, but it would make more sense than drafting Murray at #1.

    I’m not sure even throwing Hemsky in there would be enough.

    Dougie Hamilton is looking like he’s going to be the next Doughty.

    “Dougie Hamilton of the Niagara IceDogs was named the Ontario Hockey League’s defenceman of the year Tuesday.

    Hamilton led all OHL defencemen in scoring with 72 points in just 50 games and tied for third in the league with a plus-minus rating of plus-37.

    He scored 17 goals and finished tied for third overall in the league with 55 assists, which included a league-high 30 assists recorded on the power play.”

    Doughty scored 21 goals and 74 points in his best OHL season.

    Not only that, but Hamilton is 3 inches taller and a better skater.

  27. spoiler says:

    The Bruins absolutely love Hamilton and already have him slotted on the big league roster next year.

    He’s untouchable at this point.

    And they’re set at RW so asking them to trade for two of them isn’t going to work either.

    But yeah, he would be perfect.

  28. DSF says:

    Is there anything Dustin Brown can’t do?

    He’s a bad, bad man.

  29. Woodguy says:

    DSF:
    Oilers pick plus Hemsky to Boston for Dougie Hamilton and Boston’s pick.

    Hamilton is exactly what the Oilers need.

    Thoughts?

    I’d do Yak for Hamilton straight up.

    He’s projecting better than Hall.

    Woodlief has him ahead of Hall too.

    i

  30. Mr DeBakey says:

    Matt Greene not being an Oiler seems to be a product of that long contract given to Staios, and the coaches not being able to move on to the younger guy.

    Its been 4 full seasons since MacT ruined him, how long before the damage can be undone|?
    Greene had the 2nd easiest QC on the King’s defense this season.
    Maybe he’s just not that good.

    I accidentally caught Coaches Corner on a recent evening. The guy in the Clown Suit was singing Greene’s praises. They showed a clip of Greene in action. Greene gets the puck in his own end and rings it around the boards.

    I BLAME STAIOS!!

  31. Woodguy says:

    Woodguy: I’d do Yak for Hamilton straight up.

    He’s projecting better than Hall.

    Woodlief has him ahead of Hall too.

    i

    I’d rather chase OEL than Hamilton though. He’s already through a good chunk of the learning curve and has a proven NHL track record.

  32. Woodguy says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    Matt Greene not being an Oiler seems to be a product of that long contract given to Staios, and the coaches not being able to move on to the younger guy.

    Its been 4 full seasons since MacT ruined him, how long before the damage can be undone|?
    Greene had the 2nd easiest QC on the King’s defense this season.
    Maybe he’s just not that good.

    I accidentally caught Coaches Corner on a recent evening.The guy in the Clown Suit was singing Greene’s praises.They showed a clip of Greene in action.Greene gets the puck in his own end and rings it around the boards.

    I BLAME STAIOS!!

    Green’s 3rd pairing, never grew past it.

    No great loss and I love Vis.

    Green’s a very good 3rd pairing and can play PK1, but 3rd pairing.

  33. wuthering says:

    DSF:
    Is there anything Dustin Brown can’t do?

    He’s a bad, bad man.

    DB is a beauty for sure . . . I wish he was an Oiler. LA is looking very solid.
    If memory serves, last fall you were continually gushing about Yakupov, and the great gift it would be to be able to draft him. Now that Edmonton has the chance on him you seem to be wanting to trade him.

  34. Lucinius says:

    I’ve watched a fair amount of the Kings this year (and every game in the playoffs — them tossing the Canucks aside was glorious). Greene has been spectacular in the playoffs, less so during the regular season.

    Brown has also been spectacular. Sutter letting him swap to the left wing has helped him immensely (apparently he wanted to do it at the start of the year, but the previous coach said no.. Sutter said yes shortly after arriving) and his numbers have shown it.

  35. DSF says:

    Woodguy: I’d rather chase OEL than Hamilton though. He’s already through a good chunk of the learning curve and has a proven NHL track record.

    OEL’s track record is certainly decent but I would think Hamilton has a higher ceiling.

    Since I doubt the Oilers are anywhere near competitive next season, waiting a year for Hamilton to mature is hardly a deal breaker.

  36. DSF says:

    wuthering: DB is a beauty for sure . . . I wish he was an Oiler.LA is looking very solid.
    If memory serves, last fall you were continually gushing about Yakupov, and the great gift it would be to be able to draft him.Now that Edmonton has the chance on him you seem to be wanting to trade him.

    Nope.

    I’ve never gushed about Yakupov although he seems like he’ll be a good one.

    I’m not trying to trade the player…merely suggesting that t third consecutive first overall pick presents a tremendous opportunity to accelerate team building.

    I don’t know if you’re watching the Kings series but, if you are, try and determine how far from being a well balanced team the Oilers really are.

    It’s almost inconceivable that a team that has missed the playoffs six years in a row doesn’t have ONE sure fire defensive prospect.

    In the six years prior to returning to the playoffs, the Kings drafted Brown, Kopitar, Doughty, Voynov, Martinez, and even wasted a couple of first round picks on Hickey and Teubert. (they still have Derek Forbort in the pipeline.)

    Maybe Klefbom will be that guy but surely he’s at least a couple of years away and 8 years out of the playoffs seems more than likely.

  37. jimbones100 says:

    DSF your talking nonsense. There hasn’t been anything wrong with the Oilers drafting since Stu took over. The only time you get a “sure fire” defensive prospect is with a high first round pick. The Oilers have been using those high first round picks to accumlate offensive weapons (very successfully I might add – see the Oilers Power Play this year for example). The Oilers have then used some later picks to build a stable of good defensive prospects (again a very good looking group of D Men with most trending very well as prospects).

    I am very satisfied with the recent drafting success (RNH, Hall, Eberle, Gagne as recent 1st Rounders).

    Where the Oilers have fallen down is their ability to add or retain quality veterans . Even at this I cannot be that critical as I believe so of the failing was part of the plan.

  38. DSF says:

    jimbones100:
    DSF your talking nonsense. There hasn’t been anything wrong with the Oilers drafting since Stu took over. The only time you get a “sure fire” defensive prospect is with a high first round pick. The Oilers have been using those high first round picks to accumlate offensive weapons (very successfully I might add – see the Oilers Power Play this year for example). The Oilers have then used some later picks to build a stable of good defensive prospects (again a very good looking group of D Man with most trending very well as prospects).

    I am very satisfied with the recent drafting sucess (RNH, Hall, Eberle, Gagne as recent 1st Rounders).

    Where the Oilers have fallen down is there ability to add or retain quality veterans .Even at this I cannot be that critical as I believe so of the failing was part of the plan.

    While the Oilers have done very well drafting first overall, there is no evidence they have been better than average otherwise.

    Eberle is certainly a nice pick at 22 but picking Paajarvi at 10 while Ryan Ellis, Dimitri Kulikov, Nick Leddy and David Rundblad were still on the board certainly balances that pick.

    You can stockpile as many defensive prospects who project to be bottom 4 defenseman as you like but bottom 4 defensemen are easy to find in the trade and FA markets and good teams don’t spend years developing them.

    If you’re happy with drafting Gagner you likely should learn how to spell his name.

    I can agree Tambellini’s major weakness is finding quality veterans but, if your defensive pool is wanting, you’d best find a GM who can deliver the goods PDQ.

  39. wuthering says:

    DSF,

    Yes, I’ve been watching all of the LA series. I think they are the strongest team remaining in the playoffs. Of course there is a qualitative difference between them and the Oilers–that is obvious–and they represent a very balanced team, and, possibly, a good model for a rebuild. Modeling rebuilds after certain teams is easier said than done. Obviously GMs have mission statements for their respective teams and yet this is not always easy to achieve (see Brian Burke’s vision of truculence) for a variety of reasons. As for defensive prospects, this is not so easy to project either. I used to go to a lot of WHL games when I lived in Red Deer. D prospects that were tearing up the WHL never amounted to actual NHL players. Scouting isn’t an easy task. LA certainly made some good choices, but you pointed out the busts too. Scouting strategies which line up with a GM’s mission statement has all sorts of room for error. It looks great when it works out, but in many cases it turns into something that resembles a Prendergast pick.

    If I read you correctly it seems like you are advocating drafting for team balance over BPA.

  40. jfry says:

    @kt,

    like i said, hunter is rolling his lines pretty even in tight games. but consistently he’s getting top three miinutes and in this series he’s been the go to guy twice. his minutes remind me of hemsky when macT was here. if u want to take out the triple over time, that’s fine but you have to take out the 13.5 game too because it’s more of an aberation.

    here’s ao’s TOI rank

    NYR
    game 1, #1 TOI
    game 2, 13.5 mins (message sent)
    game 3, #2 in TOI (by 7 seconds) — triple OT game
    game 4, #6

    boston
    gm 7, #6
    gm 6, #1 TOI
    gm 5, #1 TOI
    gm 4, #4
    gm 3, #3
    gm 2, #3
    gm 1, #4

    when he’s number 3 it’s typically behind semin and backstrom on PP heavy games and all their TOI is pretty close. when he’s in the 4 to 6 slot it seems like games where brouwer and blaich see more ice but all forwards are tightly packed in the 16-18 minute mark. the games that he’s no 1, it’s normally by a minute or two.

    i’d love to see playoff zone starts.

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