DARYL KATZ 11-12: THE LONER

Daryl Katz remains as mysterious today as the day he held that strange media conference. Private? The word is sadly inadequate in this case.

  1. Is he mad? Don’t know.
  2. Is he a genius? Not a clue.
  3. Is he misunderstood? Who in God’s name would know?
  4. What can we say for certain? It ain’t gonna be easy.
  5. Okay. What can we infer? I think we can probably be safe in saying he has a plan that does not involve losing forever.
  6. How does he get his message out? Through his employees. In this way, he is similar to Peter Puck and the EIG.
  7. What is his vision? I think we know that, it’s a world class arena that will serve as a center for his empire.
  8. And the team? The team will win a lot of games. I honestly don’t see any way around it. The Oilers already have an astounding amount of the NHL’s valuable gifted youth with another on the way. Sooner or later it’ll click, at least to the point of making the playoffs.
  9. What is the mandate of the Lowe-Tambellini management team? Since the rebuild under Katz began 2010 spring, the gathering of assets is still underway. I think the idea was to be a little better this past season, say push for the second season but sell at the deadline.
  10. So, they failed? Yes.
  11. What are the implications? We’ll find out soon enough, but I’d guess that they are willing to play a little fast and loose with the #1 overall with an eye to balance and team building to fit their template.
  12. Template? Sure. The Oilers probably want to upgrade defense this summer and graduate a few kids up front. Plus (we hope) a Pisani and bring back Smyth.
  13. So, make enough moves to push for the playoffs. That would be my guess.
  14. What about Renney? Hard to bring him back now. Suspect they’ll get the highest profile name available.
  15. McLellan? Don’t know. The most famous coach available; that would be my guess. A “sure thing.”
  16. What do the Oilers have to offer? Edmonton could be a pretty nice landing spot. $25M in cap room, Hall, Nuge, Eberle, etc plus if they can hire him in time the new coach can see the new number one at rookie camp.
  17. What about Lowe and Tambellini? If they have been following orders–procure talent and build from the ground up–then the tandem has nothing to worry over. The Oilers do at times like to shuffle and have not done so since 2008. I can see a job opening for someone like Craig MacTavish–say deputy president of hockey ops.
  18. You’re crazy. No doubt, complete hoot owl.
  19. What has Katz done to make the team better? He’s an owner who is flush; easy to forgot the wing and a prayer of the past, but the cheques cash and that’s a good thing.
  20. What else? He (apparently) was the man who suggested the rebuild, which begat all these good to great draft picks and a stronger minor league system.
  21. What else? The Oil Kings  won a championship in 5 short seasons, which has to give the organization some sense of pride. Perhaps the Chynoweth Cup will ignite Mr. Katz to speed up the process and push for a more competitive team.
  22. So you’re saying Steve Tambellini is back? If he wasn’t part of the organization they would have flushed him by  now. I would not rule out a slight change in role, however.
  23. What now? Well, ST has had success building up the minor league system and putting in place a strong scouting staff. His pro scouts and pro trades have been less impressive. Perhaps there’s an opportunity there to split the role and have a “NHL” General Manager who makes the pro deals.
  24. You’re dreaming. Probably, but if you look at what is wrong with the Oilers much  of it has to do with July 1st, trades throughout the season and contract hell. Tambellini has done a better job of avoiding long term messes, but I would hope that Mr. Katz has a long look at the decision making process that brought the club to sign Cam Barker to his contract. That sort of thinking–the one where evidence is set aside for “gut feel” and attention to things like the 2004 entry draft–will probably bite this team in the ass for years to come.
  25. So, new coach, new admin, new defense? Yes, two new D–one of which might be Murray and or Schultz–and then a veteran forward plus a strong AHL goaltender for the day when Mr. Khabibulin calls it a day.
  26. How do you think the draft goes? Edmonton trades down to #2, Islanders end up at #1 and Columbus falls to #4. That’s a guess, though.
  27. Will they win 40 games next season? No. Unless.
  28. Unless? Taylor Hall goes super nova.

 

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78 Responses to "DARYL KATZ 11-12: THE LONER"

  1. dawgtoy says:

    Enigma.

  2. bookje says:

    They will win 40 or more games next season!

    Bookje it!

  3. Woodguy says:

    but I would hope that Mr. Katz has a long look at the decision making process that brought the club to sign Cam Barker to his contract.

    I ran into Mr. Katz at Andy’s IGA the other day.

    I was getting lemons and romaine lettuce, he was picking up bread and cheese.

    He stood behind me in line and had short conversation with him.

    Me: “Excuse me Mr. Katz, may I ask you a question?”

    DK: “Sure”

    Me: “What was your opinion of the Cam Barker signing”

    DK: “Who?”

    Me: “Cam Barket, played defense for the Oilers this past year”

    DK: “I’m sure Kevin had a good reason for signing Sam Parker. He’s a good judge of talent and hopefully Parker plays well again next year”

    Me: “Thanks for your time Mr. Katz, enjoy your Brie. I like to put mine on a BBQ so its almost liquid, then slice the top and dip crackers right into the wheel”

    DK: *blank stare*

    Note: The above probably didn’t happen

  4. hunter1909 says:

    I like Katz. Solid businessman, local boy made good. Probably preparing to bring Gretzky back into the Oiler’s universe – which will shock everyone.

    Draft Yakupov, please. Yaks/Eberle/Hallsy/RNH will make everyone forget about the Colorado Avalanche.

  5. danny says:

    Katz is bonafide.

  6. Mr DeBakey says:

    The most famous coach available; that would be my guess.

    Ding! Ding! Ding!

    That’s what this whole Sutter thing is about.

    I’m not really a Rennie fan, but I can’t see what he’s done wrong.
    Finish last year one.
    Check.
    Improve year two.
    Check.

    Its
    An enigma wrapped in a conundrum

  7. Shane says:

    hunter1909,

    I’ve been thinking that Gretz might be coming back in some capacity for some time now. But didn’t want to say anything for fear of lookin ‘all crazy’ and stuff.

  8. stevezie says:

    Mr DeBakey,

    Yeah, but while Sutter’s record is easily good enough for him to be considered a legit coach, he hasn’t made the playoffs in three years so I don’t think he qualifies for the sure thing/saviour ranking. He’s also from Alberta which hurts his fame. You’re not famous in Canada until you’ve made it it somewhere else. I think they’ll hire him., but only if no one better shows up.

    Personally I was praying Quenneville was going to market, but that clearly ain’t happening. I wonder if Eakins would be interested in the “associate coach” role? He seems to inspire players like nobody’s business, could be perfect for this young team. As long as I’m wondering, Renney and Sutter are old friends, could they double team this? I assume egos and salaries won’t allow this, but who knows?

  9. bsmart says:

    Lowetide,

    Just a side note, I was e-mailing with Mckenzie and he said he heard Schultz not available until July 1st due to de registration from college triggering UFA status. This may effect drafting for the oilers. It would have been better for them if they knew ahead of the draft if they could sign him. I love your blog, read it just about everyday!

  10. gd says:

    I think sometimes we forget how we haven’t had financially strong ownership since Pocklington’s business empire started to collapse in the mid 80s.

    I’ve learned a long time ago that to be a sports fan is too blindly hope the billionaire who owns your team actually cares about winning and not just about extorting money from fans and govts. I would love to have Mark Cuban as my owner and I pray I never have someone like Harold Ballard as my owner. Katz is such a mystery because most sports owners have the type of egos who want to be in the spotlight. I’ve got to assume he didn’t get this successful accepting poor performances among his managers. I also have to assume he didn’t buy the team just so he could hang out with KLowe and relive the 80s. I believe he either owns the team because he wants to win or wants to make as much money as possible. I’m assuming even if he only cares about profit he will realize that each extra playoff game must be worth at minimum $2 Mill to the bottom in ticket, merchandise and goodwill. I trust he know this market isn’t nearly as big as TO to get away with losing forever and still sellout.

    I am encouraged by OKC’s success, I am encouraged when I hear Oiler management is attending the Sloan conference. I’ll be really encouraged if they sign the top available coach and I’ll be really encouraged if they can sign Justin Schultz. I will name my first born Darryl Shea if they somehow manage to bring in Weber signed for 7 years.

  11. "Steve Smith" says:

    bsmart,

    I’m not going to open up this discussion here again (I promise!), but if you’ve got a line of communication open with McKenzie re: Schultz, I’d love it if you’d ask him the following question:

    “If Schultz quits school after the 2012 draft, what part of the CBA makes him a UFA, instead of going into the 2013 draft? Section 8.4 of the CBA sets out what players are not eligible for the draft, and none of those appears to apply to Schultz.”

  12. Traktor says:

    Cam Barker is off the books while Belanger has two years left on his contract.

    If Belanger was the better bet I would have made a lot of money.

  13. DSF says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    bsmart,

    I’m not going to open up this discussion here again (I promise!), but if you’ve got a line of communication open with McKenzie re: Schultz, I’d love it if you’d ask him the following question:

    “If Schultz quits school after the 2012 draft, what part of the CBA makes him a UFA, instead of going into the 2013 draft?Section 8.4 of the CBA sets out what players are not eligible for the draft, and none of those appears to apply to Schultz.”

    Still banging that drum?

    The reason you can’t find the clause is because it’s not there.

    It’s a loophole.

    Why didn’t the dog bark?

  14. stevezie says:

    Traktor,

    Even if his offence never returns, Belanger is still functional in the Mart Reasoner 4th line/PK role. He’ll be overpaid, but some degree of useful. I don’t think Barker was worth the league minimum.

    This is a pretty weak defence.

  15. gd says:

    LT,

    Just curious of what players you think will move to get the Oil no.2 and NYI no.1?

  16. Maggie the Monkey says:

    I loved the series, LT, and think you could get a whole second go around out of Neil Young tunes.

    Vampire Blues would have suited the narrative of this season well: not only is it a song (partially) about “oil”, but it includes the lyrics “Good times are comin’, I hear it everywhere I go. Good times are comin’, but they sure are comin’ slow.” An apt a description as I can think of for our beloved franchise.

  17. Traktor says:

    stevezie:
    Traktor,

    Even if his offence never returns, Belanger is still functional in the Mart Reasoner 4th line/PK role. He’ll be overpaid, but some degree of useful. I don’t think Barker was worth the league minimum.

    This is a pretty weak defence.

    Belanger was -13.

    Not only is he terrible offensively but every player that played with him was sucked into his whirlpool of uselessness. Belanger hits 3 birds with one stone in a bad way.

    And for a bottom of the roster type player he brings ZERO physical play.

    Belanger is a perfect example that winning draws means nothing if you can’t do anything with the puck.

    Barker didn’t help us but he finished the year even and now he is UFA and can go play play in the KHL or flip burgers. We are still stuck with Belanger for another 2 years.

  18. Ducey says:

    15.McLellan? Don’t know. The most famous coach available; that would be my guess. A “sure thing.”

    Dale Hunter just quit WASH. Maybe he saw the bat signal over Edmonton. He could turn all our young stars into defensive robots.

  19. rickithebear says:

    Traktor: Not only is he terrible offensively but every player that played with him was sucked into his whirlpool of uselessness.

    10-11:
    oilers 29th PK
    11-12;
    14th PK
    Belanger 7th best PK center
    Jones 7th best PK winger.

    This is the start of our 4th line period. all other even discussion is wasted space.

  20. VOR says:

    I wanted to return to an early post for a moment. Somebody said that drafting late with success was luck.

    The answer is, if you only consider from 2000 to the current time and look at any of the following three criteria:

    useful NHL players,
    total NHl minutes
    400+ game players or on pace to be 400+ game players

    the distribution is a dumbbell, big clumps below average and above average, only a few really bad, really good or average teams. The Oilers, surprisingly, are one of the very few “average” teams.

    The best teams by the way are the Rangers and Sabres.

    Throughout the data set there is a recurring theme, that is teams draft a great player late and his career takes off somewhere else.

    Examples, New York took Lundquist late and kept him but they also took Marek Zidlicky late and let him slip away. Bufflao let Wideman and Hedja go to other teamns. San Jose has Pavelski and Clowe from the late rounds also drafted Matt Carle and so on. Being patient with your late draft choices statistically would be a winning strategy.

    So is it luck? The math says no, some skill, or lack thereof is involved but it is a fairly small effect. Once you build in letting good ones slip away no team has a statisitically significant advanatage. In the ten year period by the way no team failed to find at least one real NHL player. Colorado found 9 with one tracking (Mark Olver) and one question mark (Jonas Holos).

    Some very good hockey players have gone late Benn, Wideman, Hornqvist, Rinne, Hedja, and Lundqvist for example but moslty you get role players at best.

  21. bookje says:

    Does Katz care about the Oilers and/or Edmonton or is he just in it for the money? Lets do some analysis.

    1. The man greatly values his privacy.
    2. There are many quiet, less risky ways to make as much or more money

    Analysis – Daryl Katz bought the team for more than just solely making money.

    Now with that said, he is also a businessman who will naturally think about his investments as an investment. This may override his ‘fan’ side. He may also lose his interest as a fan and/or come to hate Edmonton as he is continually labelled corrupt/criminal/etc. by random Edmontonians. After which he may become angry and turn on the city and try to sell the team to Kazakhstan. I hope this is not the case.

  22. Masamax says:

    “If Schultz quits school after the 2012 draft, what part of the CBA makes him a UFA, instead of going into the 2013 draft? Section 8.4 of the CBA sets out what players are not eligible for the draft, and none of those appears to apply to Schultz.”

    Steve, I actually read an answer that makes sense on this point on HFboards a week or so ago. Essentially, Schultz must be signed by June 1 by Anaheim or they lose his rights. BUT, if he is not at school, he will be sent back to the draft. How does he get around this? If he is still at school, he is ineligible to be drafted. Until the draft ends, he will not be available to be signed. However, once the draft is over, he will then inform his school that he will not be returning for the next year. Then he will become a UFA.

    If he informed his school before July 1 that he wasn’t coming, he would be put back into the draft.

  23. "Steve Smith" says:

    Masamax,

    The only part of your answer that I don’t follow is “Then he will become a UFA”. I know he won’t be in the 2012 draft, for exactly the reasons you give. But why wouldn’t he then go into the 2013 draft? That’s not apparent from the text of the CBA.

    Hey, didn’t I say that I wasn’t going to re-open this discussion? Boy, I sure am a filthy liar.

  24. bookje says:

    If, hypothetically, Shultz did go back into the draft, any guess as to where he would be drafted?

  25. bsmart says:

    Masamax,

    Mckenzie advised his contacts told him that Schultz will need to file his deregistration prior to end of May to obtain his UFA status which comes into effect July 1. From the sounds of it this is what Schultz intends to do.

  26. commonfan14 says:

    On an only slightly related note – anybody know why kids can be drafted by NHL teams and then go play NCAA hockey before eventually signing with the team that owns their rights, but this never happened with the NBA and NCAA basketball prior to the NBA bringing in its age minimum?

    Was it not allowed in basketball somehow, or just not done?

  27. "Steve Smith" says:

    commonfan14,

    The obvious answer – which is not to say the correct one – is that the NHL collective agreement provides for that to happen, while the other leagues’ collective agreements do not. I have no intention of confirming whether this is or is not the case.

  28. Professor Q says:

    I just visited http://www.mastercardmemorialcup.ca/page/coverage. Apparently, Shawinigan is already up 1-0 against the Oil Kings…

  29. "Steve Smith" says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    And as long as I’m violating my pledge re: re-opening this discussion, this seems as good a time as any to make an offer I’ve been contemplating for a while: I will give $200 to anybody (or to a charity of that person’s choice) who can explain, with reference to the text of the CBA, why Justin Schultz is not required to re-enter the draft (either 2012 or 2013, depending on when he quits school), but can instead sign with the team of his choice. I’d suggest Speeds as an adjudicator, if he’s willing, but I’m not terribly picky on that point.

  30. art vandelay says:

    Bookie chimed in with: There are many quiet, less risky ways to make as much or more money

    Name another way to increase the asset side of your ledger by $500M on the No Money Down plan.
    Name one.
    Just one.

    You can’t.

    Because you’re a fool. An Oiler fan. And an economic ignoramus.

    Unfortunately, assuming you’re 18 or older, your desperate need to have a blue jersey to cover your inadequacies cancels out my vote as a working taxpayer.

    That’s what’s wrong with democracy. Every numnuts gets to cast a ballot.

    But when you’ve finished eating the soup and crackers your mom set out for you while you’re watching the noon hour Flintstones, google “rent seeking” and find out why people with jobs aren’t worried so much about Katz’s privacy issues as they are about why city council is making it easier for him to dip into our wallets.

    It would only be fitting it Gretzky were brought back to put a face on this farce, since he’s notable for being involved with some of the biggest shysters in pro sports: Skalbania, Pocklington, Ellman, et al. Need I mention Rick Tocchet and the NJ state trooper?

  31. art vandelay says:

    /forgot McNall

  32. bookje says:

    Art – Without knowing much about you, I am pretty confident that my academic and business successes are far greater than yours. If you like, and you have nothing better to do (and I am sure that is the case), why don’t you write me a nice essay as to how NHL hockey is more financially beneficial for Katz than his Pharmacy business has been. Please, don’t use generalities. I want a well thought out and well researched post. You might even want to spend days Then I promise to respond to you with an equally informed post.

    As per the arena, I tend not to be a supporter of the current deal, but people like you make me want to support it. In fact, you make me hope that the city and province blow so much money on building stuff in this city and province that they have to raise taxes so high that whiners like you are forced out of this province because the seniors pension that you leach off of is not enough to survive. I have no problem paying my taxes and the extra few $$’s a year for the arena are a pittance.

  33. bookje says:

    “Steve Smith”: And as long as I’m violating my pledge re: re-opening this discussion, this seems as good a time as any to make an offer I’ve been contemplating for a while: I will give $200 to anybody (or to a charity of that person’s choice) who can explain, with reference to the text of the CBA, why Justin Schultz is not required to re-enter the draft (either 2012 or 2013, depending on when he quits school), but can instead sign with the team of his choice. I’d suggest Speeds as an adjudicator, if he’s willing, but I’m not terribly picky on that point.

    Hi Steve,

    I have avoided this whole discussion, but actually find myself with a little free time today and enjoy digging in the CBA. I apologise if what I say has already been hashed out, but in section 8.6 (c)(ii) it says the following:

    “If a Player drafted at age 18 or 19 is a bona fide college student at
    the time of his selection in the Entry Draft, or becomes a bona fide
    college student prior to the first June 1 following his selection in
    the Entry Draft, and does not remain a bona fide college student
    through the graduation of his college class, his drafting Club shall
    retain exclusive rights for the negotiation of his services until the
    fourth June 1 following his selection in the Entry Draft.?

    Provided that there is nothing else in the CBA that indicates that the player must re-enter the draft (which I suppose there may well be and you have dug it up), that player seems to be a free individual to do what they want, which would include signing a contract with any other NHL team to play hockey?

    In which case, it would be a case of omission as opposed to any specific statement indicating that he becomes a Free Agent.

    Note: I state this expecting you to point out that I am clueless and have missed something.

  34. oilersfan says:

    i just listened to Bob Stauffer on Oilers now from friday. Go to the archive there is a segment entitled “draft chat, Ryan Murray, and more”

    It goes on to replay the quote from Kevin Lowe where he said “ryan murray is A top prospect”. He did NOT say “The” top prospect.

    Bob goes on to say if it were up to him he would draft Yakupov.

    All this hand wringing about the Oilers getting the fans ready for them to draft Murray is nuts. Lowe didn’t say it to Stauffer, he said to Gregor they had no plans to move the pick, he said to Matheson that he likes Murray but wasn’t going to step on the scouts’ hands.

    really there have been several articles posted by Lowetide here, by david staples last week. There is no basis for any of it. Relax folks, read Stauffer on twitter. He is still advocating for Yakupov.

    Any theories that he is trying to push Murray on the Oilersfans is not being made listening to him.

  35. bookje says:

    Steve, wait, I see the problem with what I posted and am now digging into more sections. I will get back to you….

  36. oilersfan says:

    Art

    When it comes to being an internet troll with nothing better to do than go to other teams’ fan sites, and spouting off deregatory comments with no base in fact, are you an exporter or importer of stupidity and general assholeness?

    I am thinking definitely an exporter

  37. bookje says:

    Steve -

    The following explains why Anaheim loses the rights to Schultz (Schultz is removed from their reserve list)

    8.6 (c)(ii) If a Player drafted at age 18 or 19 is a bona fide college student at the time of his selection in the Entry Draft, or becomes a bona fide college student prior to the first June 1 following his selection in the Entry Draft, and does not remain a bona fide college student through the graduation of his college class, his drafting Club shall retain exclusive rights for the negotiation of his services until the fourth June 1 following his selection in the Entry Draft.

    Normally such players are put back into the draft because there is no way to declare them UFA’s, BUT section 10.1(d)(i) appears to have an out. It says

    10.1 (d) (i) Any Player not eligible for claim in any future Entry Draft pursuant to this Agreement and not on a Club’s Reserve List shall be an Unrestricted Free Agent.

    Given that the current CBA expires on September 15th, then Schultz is an individual who is on nobody’s reserve list (no one has exclusive rights) and he is not eligible for claim in any future Entry Draft pursuant to this agreement, so therefore he is a UFA.

    - What am I missing?

  38. godot10 says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    The most famous coach available; that would be my guess.

    I’m not really a Rennie fan, but I can’t see what he’s done wrong.

    Where comparisons exist, he gets the worst out of his players, rather than the best.

    Belanger played great for Lemaire and Tippett.
    Fraser played like a 4th line center for Quenneville and Sutter.
    Cogliano was serviceable for MacT and Boudreau.
    Brule is playing fine for Tippett.
    Hemsky has been awful under Renney.
    Renney tried running Gagner off the team (like he did with Omark and Paajarvi).

  39. Ducey says:

    Unfortunately, assuming you’re 18 or older, your desperate need to have a blue jersey to cover your inadequacies cancels out my vote as a working taxpayer.

    That’s what’s wrong with democracy. Every numnuts gets to cast a ballot.

    Art,

    1) I am suprised to learn that standing on the corner barking at cars as they go by (your MO here) qualifies you as a working taxpayer;
    2) If they start getting picky about who gets to vote, how can you be so sure you will make the cut?
    3) I probably don’t add much around here, but I try. You don’t. Why don’t you just get lost and not come back?

  40. Bar_Qu says:

    I for one look forward to predetermining who among my fellow citizens gets to have a vote. Since, as I have told myself many times, I know better than anyone else about everything. I am the 1% (in categories as to be decided by me on no specified criteria).

  41. edwards_daddy says:

    From the Brownlee piece over on ON:
    “That’s right,” MacGregor said. “But I think (GM) Steve Tambellini was pretty clear that, you know, maybe we do have to make an organizational decision . . .”

    Reading between the lines, does that not mean drafting for need rather than BPA?

  42. "Steve Smith" says:

    bookje,

    That’s the closest thing to an arguable case I’ve seen yet (and it’s something that hadn’t occurred to me – the idea that the agreement’s expiration means that no players are currently draft-eligible beyond 2012…which I suppose means that a team could go ahead and sign Nate MacKinnon as a UFA). What you’re missing, however, is that the CBA doesn’t actually have a fixed expiry date:

    “3.1 (a) This Agreement is effective retroactive to September 16, 2004 (the “Effective Date”), and shall remain in full force and effect until midnight New York time on September 15, 2011, and shall remain in effect from year to year thereafter unless and until either party shall deliver to the other a written notice of termination of this Agreement at least 120 days prior to September 15, 2011 or not less than a like period in any year thereafter.”

    Has either side delivered that notice as yet?

    (Even if one side has, I think it’s near-certain that an adjudicator would interpret “pursuant to this Agreement” to mean “under the terms of this agreement, were they to apply at the material time”, which is why Nate MacKinnon won’t be signing as a UFA. It also doesn’t explain what happened with Blake Wheeler, though that wasn’t actually part of my $200 challenge.)

  43. godot10 says:

    Disclaimer: I am not a lawyer, and may well be a fool who doesn’t know what he is talking about.

    Section 8.6 (c) (iii)
    If a Player drafted at age 18 or 19, who had received a Bona Fide
    Offer in accordance with Section 8.6(a)(ii) above, becomes a bona
    fide college student prior to the second June 1 following his
    selection in the Entry Draft and remains a bona fide college student
    through the graduation of his college class, his drafting Club shall
    retain the exclusive rights of negotiation for his services through
    and including the August 15 following the graduation of his
    college class.

    Section 8.6 (c) (iv)
    If a Player drafted at age 18 or 19, who had received a Bona Fide
    Offer in accordance with Section 8.6(a)(ii) above, becomes a bona
    fide college student prior to the second June 1 following his
    selection in the Entry Draft and does not remain a bona fide
    college student through the graduation of his college class, his
    drafting Club shall retain exclusive rights for the negotiation of his
    services until the fourth June 1 following his selection in the Entry
    Draft.

    So my reading (see disclaimer) is that as long as Schultz remains a bona fide student, Anaheim retains his rights till August 15, 2013 after his graduating class graduates. (the first CBA section).

    However if Schultz decides to leave school after the June 2012 entry draft, then Anaheim lost his rights on June 1, 2012, and Schultz will be too old to be eligible for the 2013 entry draft.

    Hence he becomes a UFA immediately, and eligible for a 2-year entry level deal (rather than a mandatory 3-year entry level deal).

  44. "Steve Smith" says:

    godot10: …and Schultz will be too old to be eligible for the 2013 entry draft.

    I agree with your analysis up to that part. Where do you get his being too old for the 2013 draft?

  45. godot10 says:

    “Steve Smith”: I agree with your analysis up to that part.Where do you get his being too old for the 2013 draft?

    Okay…I will amend to say that he may be eligible for the draft in 2013, but he will be an UFA after July 1 if he leaves school, and he is under no obligation to wait to be drafted next year.

  46. "Steve Smith" says:

    godot10,

    Then I’ll amend my question to “What makes him a UFA?” He’s no longer on Anaheim’s reserve list, but that doesn’t make him a UFA.

    You previously seemed to be arguing that he’d be a UFA under 10.1(d), but if he’s eligible for the 2013 draft, 10.1(d) wouldn’t apply.

  47. godot10 says:

    "Steve Smith":
    godot10,

    Then I’ll amend my question to “What makes him a UFA?”He’s no longer on Anaheim’s reserve list, but that doesn’t make him a UFA.

    You previously seemed to be arguing that he’d be a UFA under 10.1(d), but if he’s eligible for the 2013 draft, 10.1(d) wouldn’t apply.

    Nobody has his rights. Therefore he is a UFA. He would sue the NHL if they refused to allow anyone to sign him. He now just like any other undrafted college player leaving college where no team holds his rights.

  48. "Steve Smith" says:

    godot10: Nobody has his rights.Therefore he is a UFA.

    If the above assumption is correct, then it explains what makes Justin Schultz a UFA. Unfortunately, the above assumption is, as far as I can tell, totally without basis in the CBA. But feel free to show otherwise, with reference to the text of the CBA.

    (And again, if the above assumption is correct, we can go ahead and sign Nate MacKinnon as a UFA.)

    (Also, if the above assumption is correct, it makes 10.1(d) redundant in its entirety.)

    godot10: He now just like any other undrafted college player leaving college where no team holds his rights.

    Insofar as “other” undrafted players are UFAs, it’s because of 8.4(a)(iv) and (v), both of which plainly do not apply to Schultz.

  49. danny says:

    Entry Draft Eligibility
    All players age 19 or older [(i) any player who will be age 18 on or before September 15 in the year in which such Entry Draft is held, or (ii) reaches his 19th birthday between September 16 and December 31, both dates included, next following Entry Draft, can attain eligibility by delivering to the League a written notice (Opt in Form) prior to the later of May 1, or seven days following the date such player finishes competing on his team in the year in which such draft is to be held.] are eligible for claim in the Entry Draft, except:
    (i) A Player on the Reserve List of a Club, other than as a try-out;
    (ii) A player who has been claimed in two prior Entry Drafts;
    (iii) A player who previously played in the League and became a free agent pursuant to the Collective Bargaining Agreement;
    (iv) A plyer age 21 or older who had played hockey for at least one season in North America when he was age 18, 19 or 20

    He isn’t eligible for the 2013 draft due to his age, and NA play. Yes?

  50. "Steve Smith" says:

    danny,

    I don’t see that anywhere in the CBA; are you looking at the correct one? Here‘s the version I’m using.

  51. Jordan says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    I am also not a lawyer.

    I am quite certain that based on the language of the CBA, he is not in fact draft exempt. The Draft rules are VERY explicit about who qualifies to be drafted.

    It’s everyone over 18.

    Except:
    i) Prospects listed on the reserve list of another club
    ii) Anyone who has already been claimed in 2 drafts (Stoll would have fit in here, if he hadn’t been signed)
    iii) Anyone playing in the NHL before the CBA was created
    iV) Anyone over 21 who hasn’t been selected in the draft AND who played at least 1 year of North American Hockey between the ages of 18 and 20 and is an eligible UFA under 10.1 (d).
    v) anyone 22 or older who wasn’t selected and is UFA eligible under section 10.1 (d)

    Based on what has been said by Bookje and Godot (and my reading of the CBA) if he declares he’s not returning to school until after June 1, he’s no longer ANA property. So, I could see the argument that he is draft eligible because:
    – He’s not on another teams list
    – He hasn’t been selected in 2 drafts
    – He’s never played in the NHL before
    – He’s been drafted and sections 8.4 (a) iv) and v) do not apply.

    Based on this, if he declares before the draft, he should be draft eligible.

    The only way this doesn’t happen would be it has been read into the CBA (the Wheeler loophole), and the copy up on the NHLPA website does not include those changes.

  52. godot10 says:

    8.9 Eligibility for Play in the League. No Player shall be eligible for play in the
    League unless he:
    (a) had been claimed in the last Entry Draft, or was ineligible for claim under
    Section 8.4; or

    See previous disclaimer…

    Schultz is eligible to play in the League because he will be ineligible for claim in the June 2012 draft. And nobody will hold his rights when he leaves school on July 1.

    The delayed entry by a season into US college hockey which is now occurring mainly because of the US junior league has created an unforeseen loophole in the last CBA…

  53. danny says:

    It seems NHL.com document handling is pretty ham handed, there’s no date attached to that eligibility information I pulled, but the document you linked definitely had added a stipulation which would make my reasoning incorrect. I can only assume your document is newer than the language I was pulling from, as I have no way to verify that without needing to exert additional effort, which pursuant to section 1.8 of the danny Internet discussion act:

    1.8 (iv) ain’t happenin’

  54. godot10 says:

    In summary.

    As long as he stays in school, Schultz is Anaheim’s property till August 15, 2013. 8.6 (c) iii

    On July 1, if he leaves school, Anaheim loses his rights retroactively to June 1, 2012. 8.6 (c) Iv

    He is an unrestricted free agent because he was not eligible for the 2012 draft, because he was still Anaheim’s property. 8.9 and 8.9(a) and 8.4

    See my previous disclaimer.

  55. godot10 says:

    Corrollory:

    This explains the Schultz “twilight zone” between June 1 and July 1, where nothing can happen.

    Anaheim both “has” and “does not have” his rights in June. Schultz’s status in June depends on a decision he makes in July.

  56. Gret99zky says:

    Shane:
    hunter1909,

    I’ve been thinking that Gretz might be coming back in some capacity for some time now. But didn’t want to say anything for fear of lookin ‘all crazy’ and stuff.

    I doubt Gretzky comes back to Edmonton for anything other than a charity golf tournament. He seems to have seperated himself from the NHL for the time being and, to my eyes, looks and acts like he wants to remain in the USA. He has homes in California and Arizona.

    I don’t see #99 coming back to work for the Oilers in any capacity.

    Edit: maybe PR for the new arena or ribbon cutting but that’s it.

  57. jake70 says:

    Gret99zky: I doubt Gretzky comes back to Edmonton for anything other than a charity golf tournament.He seems to have seperated himself from the NHL for the time being and, to my eyes, looks and acts like he wants to remain in the USA.He has homes in California and Arizona.

    I don’t see #99 coming back to work for the Oilers in any capacity.

    Edit: maybe PR for the new arena or ribbon cutting but that’s it.

    Yeah, he likely has his hands full keeping Paulina from turning into that that Lohan girl.

  58. Woodguy says:

    VOR:
    I wanted to return to an early post for a moment. Somebody said that drafting late with success was luck.

    The answer is, if you only consider from 2000 to the current time and look at any of the following three criteria:

    useful NHL players,
    total NHl minutes
    400+ game players or on pace to be 400+ game players

    the distribution is a dumbbell, big clumps below average and above average, only a few really bad, really good or average teams. The Oilers, surprisingly, are one of the very few “average” teams.

    The best teams by the way are the Rangers and Sabres.

    Throughout the data set there is a recurring theme, that is teams draft a great player late and his career takes off somewhere else.

    Examples, New York took Lundquist late and kept him but they also took Marek Zidlicky late and let him slip away. Bufflaolet Wideman and Hedja go to other teamns. San Jose has Pavelski and Clowe from the late rounds also drafted Matt Carle and so on. Being patient with your late draft choices statistically would be a winning strategy.

    So is it luck? The math says no, some skill, or lack thereof is involved but it is a fairly small effect. Once you build in letting good ones slip away no team has a statisitically significant advanatage. In the ten year period by the way no team failed to find at least one real NHL player. Colorado found 9 with one tracking (Mark Olver) and one question mark (Jonas Holos).

    Some very good hockey players have gone late Benn, Wideman, Hornqvist, Rinne, Hedja, and Lundqvist for example but moslty you get role players at best.

    Nice post. Thanks for that.

  59. bookje says:

    Steve, I have it – It’s done – call off the hounds – ring the bell.

    Ok,

    First we have section 8.6 which says the following:

    8.6 (c)(ii) If a Player drafted at age 18 or 19 is a bona fide college student at the time of his selection in the Entry Draft, or becomes a bona fide college student prior to the first June 1 following his selection in the Entry Draft, and does not remain a bona fide college student through the graduation of his college class, his drafting Club shall retain exclusive rights for the negotiation of his services until the fourth June 1 following his selection in the Entry Draft.

    then we have section 14.9 (d)(iv)

    If a player is drafted and does not remain a bona fide college student through the graduation of their college class, was born between July 5th, 1990 and July 7th 1990, and has the initials J.S., they can do whatever the hell they like totally ignoring the collective bargaining agreement

    Where do I collect my $200?

  60. "Steve Smith" says:

    Jordan,

    I agree entirely with your analysis, unsurprisingly.

    danny,

    What is the source of the language you found? It would actually explain a lot if that was the actual CBA, and I’ve been working off of an imposter.

    godot10,

    Per 10.1(d) (assuming that’s the clause you’re saying would make him a UFA – and if it isn’t, please tell me which clause would), he must be each of the following things:
    1. Draft-ineligible, and
    2. On nobody’s reserve list.

    You seem to be saying that he would be on nobody’s reserve list as of the 2012 draft. Accepting that for the moment, what makes him draft-ineligible? The only way he’d be draft ineligible (since none of 8.4(a) (ii) through (v) apply) is if he was on somebody’s reserve list. Your interpretation relies on him being simultaneously on Anaheim’s reserve list (thereby making him ineligible for the draft) and on nobody’s reserve list (thereby satisfying criterion 2 of 10.1(d)).

    Finally, a brief note on the “IANAL” disclaimers: you don’t need to be a lawyer to argue this stuff (which is good, because I’m not). You need to be able to read English and think logically. An awful lot of non-lawyers can do both of those things. An alarming number of lawyers can’t.

  61. "Steve Smith" says:

    bookje,

    Just on the other side of Go. Congratulations.

  62. bookje says:

    godot10: 8.9(a) an

    But he would be eligible for the 2013 draft, so that doesn’t work.

  63. "Steve Smith" says:

    bookje,

    That’s actually a much more effective retort than I managed: 10.1(d) requires that Schultz not be eligible for any future entry draft. So even if he was ineligible for the 2012 draft at the same time as he wasn’t on any club’s reserve list, unless you can explain why he’s ineligible in 2013, your argument fails.

    (By “your”, I mean Godot’s; I think it’s pretty clear that Bookie’s argument is ironclad.)

  64. danny says:

    Steve, here’s the link. The fact that they misspell ‘player’ leads me to somewhat doubt the veracity of its claims.

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=26377

  65. Woodguy says:

    art vandelay,

    I loved the Flintstones at lunch.

    12:00pm CFRN, Tomato soup, Premium Plus crackes and grilled cheese sandwiches.

    “Ya Fred, keep it quiet!”

  66. godot10 says:

    8.9, 8.9(a), and 8.4 make Schultz eligible to play if he leaves school after July 1.

    If he is eligible to play now, then the correct interpretation of 10.1 (d) is that Schultz is no longer eligible for a future draft (BECAUSE he is eligible to play now) by the previous three clauses. Since he is not eligible for a future draft, he is a UFA.

  67. godot10 says:

    In summary. Version 2.

    As long as he stays in school, Schultz is Anaheim’s property till August 15, 2013. 8.6 (c) iii

    On July 1, if he leaves school, Anaheim loses his rights retroactively to June 1, 2012. 8.6 (c) Iv

    He becomes eligible to play in the NHL, because he was not eligible for the 2012 draft, because he was still Anaheim’s property. 8.9 and 8.9(a) and 8.4. But now he is no longer Anaheim’s property. (i.e. The “twilight zone in the CBA”)

    Since he is eligible to play in the NHL, it makes him ineligible for a future draft. A player eligible to play in the NHL and eligible for a future draft is a logical inconsistency.

    If one is ineligible for a future draft (and since he is no longer on Anaheim’s reserve list) then 10.1 (d) makes you an unrestricted free agent.

  68. danny says:

    I think Godot nailed it.

    The wrinkle is the retroactive rights loss. He technically will go undrafted in 2012, since he will retroactively become draft eligible after the draft is concluded.

    If that is indeed correct, then why couldnt anyone just say it like that?? Sheesh.

  69. speeds says:

    I would have to look it up, but I think I’ve read that a player can both be eligible for future drafts and be able to sign in the summer. My understanding is that there is a some sort of window, post draft but ending at some point before the end of training camp, where a player who went unclaimed could in theory be signed if some team wanted to, by some date, after which they have to go back into the drafting pool the following draft (unless there’s some reason they aren’t draft eligible by that point). I don’t see anything about that in the CBA though, so maybe I’m thinking of something from the previous CBA that is no longer applicable?

    For some reason I’m thinking of Vitali Karamnov, but I can’t find the details with him and the Oilers, seems to me he wasn’t eligible to sign for some reason but I can’t remember why, if it was something to do with him specifically, or all 18 year olds that aren’t drafted?

  70. spoiler says:

    VOR:
    I wanted to return to an early post for a moment. Somebody said that drafting late with success was luck.

    The answer is, if you only consider from 2000 to the current time and look at any of the following three criteria:

    useful NHL players,
    total NHl minutes
    400+ game players or on pace to be 400+ game players

    the distribution is a dumbbell, big clumps below average and above average, only a few really bad, really good or average teams. The Oilers, surprisingly, are one of the very few “average” teams.

    The best teams by the way are the Rangers and Sabres.

    Throughout the data set there is a recurring theme, that is teams draft a great player late and his career takes off somewhere else.

    Examples, New York took Lundquist late and kept him but they also took Marek Zidlicky late and let him slip away. Bufflaolet Wideman and Hedja go to other teamns. San Jose has Pavelski and Clowe from the late rounds also drafted Matt Carle and so on. Being patient with your late draft choices statistically would be a winning strategy.

    So is it luck? The math says no, some skill, or lack thereof is involved but it is a fairly small effect. Once you build in letting good ones slip away no team has a statisitically significant advanatage. In the ten year period by the way no team failed to find at least one real NHL player. Colorado found 9 with one tracking (Mark Olver) and one question mark (Jonas Holos).

    Some very good hockey players have gone late Benn, Wideman, Hornqvist, Rinne, Hedja, and Lundqvist for example but moslty you get role players at best.

    Can’t see anything in this post that proves that picking good players in the latter half of the draft isn’t mostly luck.

  71. bookje says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    bookje,

    Just on the other side of Go.Congratulations.

    The minute I wrote ‘Collect my $200′, I know that a reply involving passing go was forthcoming…

  72. bookje says:

    tnt

  73. bookje says:

    Godot is close, but still wrong I think because his explanation would still leave Schultz eligible for future drafts as this supersedes being “eligible to play”.

    Here is my take (building on Godot)

    8.6 (c) iii: As long as he stays in school, Schultz is Anaheim’s property till August 15, 2013. (when he is targeted to graduate)
    8.6 (c) Iv: On July 1, if he leaves school, Anaheim loses his rights retroactively to June 1, 2012.

    On June 22 and 23 nobody can pick Schultz as he is on Anaheim’s Reserve List.

    However, as of July 1st he is retroactively eligible for the 2012 draft.

    Because nobody selected him at the 2012 draft, section 10.1 (d) (i) indicates that Further, any Player eligible for claim in the Entry Draft, but who was unclaimed, shall be an Unrestricted Freee Agent subject to the provision of Section 8.9(b) . Thus he becomes a Free Agent

    Then section 8.9(b) gives him the right to sign a SPC with an NHL team at any point between the end of the draft and the beginning of the season. Thus giving him the right to play in the NHL.

    Steve – Are we getting close – how does retroactivity work in contracts? Is he really ‘eligible’ for the 2012 draft (by law) even if in reality he was not eligible? I am not sure how time travel works in legal issues.

  74. danny says:

    It seems pretty clear that someone who goes undrafted becomes an UFA, and that retroactive wrinkle seems to make Shultz retroactively available for the draft.

    So anaheim should probably draft him in the 7th round? At the draft he will be ineligible, but if he uses the loophole and becomes retroactively eligible, its an interesting situation if they declare him eligible, and he was drafted.

    This wouldnt be as effective for other teams, because Shultz could decide to simply remain Anaheims property if they think the draft pick would be honored. Anaheim doesn’t have that concern for obvious reasons.

  75. bookje says:

    Danny – good point. If we are correct about how retroactivity works in contract law, then what would happen is that Anaheim would select Schultz in the draft, the pick would be disallowed and forfieted, perhaps with an additional penalty. After Schultz’ status changes, then he would retroactivly be eligible which would then result in a reversal of the NHL’s disallowing of the pick and Schultz would be Anaheim property again.

    With that said, there is a problem with all of this, it hinges on the definition of “any Player eligible for claim in the Entry Draft” which is essentially a ‘was’ statement. So, is it possible for someone to be ineligible on the 22nd and 23rd of June and then on July 1st change their status retroactively. If I were arguing this case (note I am not a lawyer or familiar with law in any depth), I would argue that there is a linear timeline that supersedes the legal timeline. That the draft is a ‘genie out of the bottle’ situation that cannot be reversed ex post because there are temporal dimensions that prevent that from happening. Just as you cannot un-execute someone if evidence shows up that they are innocent. You can pardon them or declare them innocent, but you cannot un-die them.

    If only there were some lawyers around who could shed light on this….

  76. nathan says:

    “Anaheim both “has” and “does not have” his rights in June. Schultz’s status in June depends on a decision he makes in July.”

    godot10,

    Not even a lawyer could manage that one. I’ve always wondered who would be second up against the wall. Clearly it should be the quantum physicists. Perhaps we should put them in boxes before we shoot.

  77. godot10 says:

    nathan:
    “Anaheim both “has” and “does not have” his rights in June. Schultz’s status in June depends on a decision he makes in July.”

    godot10,

    Not even a lawyer could manage that one. I’ve always wondered who would be second up against the wall. Clearly it should be the quantum physicists. Perhaps we should put them in boxes before we shoot.

    Well the lawyers for the NHL and the NHLPA did create that one…create a legally ambiguous period where Schultz’s precise status is indeterminate, and only becomes determined by some future action that he takes.

  78. gcw_rocks says:

    Woodguy,

    Yes, it would seem three things are required in later round drafting:

    1) Volume – since luck is an element, the more picks you have the better your odds, even if they stay long
    2) Patience – these are the slow cook players. you need a strong development system to get them there (check) and a willingness to invest time in them before throwing them away
    3) Vision – you need to know these guys can, when you get a hit, become extremely valuable assets. It is like hitting the lottery. Its like free money. You don’t waste it (see Omark), you develop it and either use it, or trade it for something you need.

    The Oilers do okay on 1 (although the price has been too high to get the volume at times) and they have the system (Oil Kings, OKC) to develop players but seem a little inconsistent yet on the patience peice. Where I think they lack is on point 3. They love the shiny objects found in round one, but almost obsessively so. For the rest, it just doesn’t feel like they have a plan for how and when to integrate them into the Oilers line up. WHEN to trade away existing NHL assets to fill holes or to get more picks to feed the system. Timing is everything in this game and lately the Oilers have no real sense of timing.

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