DEVAN DUBNYK 11-12: COMES A TIME

Devan Dubnyk continues to work toward the #1 job in Edmonton’s net one small step at a time.

Devan Dubnyk 10-11

  • Boxcars: 35gp, 2.71
  • SP: .916
  • WLT: 12-13-8
  • SP behind starter: Dubnyk was 26 points clear of the veteran

Devan Dubnyk 11-12

  • Boxcars: 42gp, 2.67
  • SP: .914
  • WLT: 20-20-3
  • SP behind starter: Dubnyk was the starter, 4 clear of NK
  1. What do these numbers tell us? Dubnyk was the best goalie on the roster again, and at this point has earned the starting job. Edmonton may choose to add someone who pushes Dubnyk, but the starting goaltender is DD.
  2. How could these numbers be better? Consistency and better performance on the PK. Dubnyk’s SP numbers by discipline: .927 (tied for 13th) at evens; .854 on the PK and .862 on the PP.
  3. Is he a #1 goalie? We’re finding out. It’s difficult to assess him in one way because Dubnyk has always played for poor teams going all the way back to junior. He’s kind of a modern Gilles Meloche.
  4. Is he a #1 goalie? Looks like it, mid-pack #1 who might be able to move up the overall rankings when this team cuts back on the chaos in front of him.
  5. IS he a #1 goalie? Ask Asiaoil, he knows goalies better than I do. I’m cheering for the young man and he has improved his consistency. Beyond that, I think he’s a good sport for doing those commercials. This is the extent of my goaltending predicting acumen.
  6. Should the Oilers be trying to acquire a strong backup or a starter? I think the Oilers would be wise to aim high, not so much to push Dubnyk back but to make sure they’re well covered.
  7. Is he the best Oiler draft at G since Fuhr? Yes, but that’s not saying a helluva lot. Jussi Markkanen was good but we didn’t see him for a lot of years. I’ll say Dubnyk.
  8. Well he won the race with Deslauriers. So far, but that race isn’t over either . Deslauriers got some NHL action–not much–so he’s still on the radar. Sometimes these guys have to impress in the minors for awhile before getting back to the show.
  9. Like Pouliot? Pouliot isn’t all the way back yet, but he’s looking good and probably gets another look with the Coyotes.
  10. Back to Dubnyk. Renney seems unconvinced. Coach Renney seemed to be running Khabibulin out there a lot, I agree. Veteran coaching staffs like veteran goalies, but the results weren’t there forever from the Russian. So I agree, Renney doesn’t seem convinced.
  11. Tambellini says ‘Nik will be back.’ Tambellini says a lot of stuff, but one would think Edmonton has a strong AHL option available. Khabibulin looks done to me.
  12. He looked done to you a year ago. And he was save for the opening hot streak.
  13. What does Dubnyk need to establish himself in the NHL? He has already established himself imo to the point where Edmonton will likely be comfortable having him start the season as #1. Now, that’s not the same as DD establishing himself as the “goalie for the Hall-Nuge years” but he has an enormous opportunity.
  14. What does he have to do? Said it above, be more consistent and improve on special teams.
  15. So he’s fine at evens? .927 is a pretty good number, especially in front of this defense.
  16. What would a good season in 12-13 look like? 50 starts, north of 25 wins and a SP around .920.
  17. Can he do it? I think he can.

 

  • NHL prediction for 11-12: 40, 2.90 .917
  • NHL actual 11-12: 42, 2.67 .914

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34 Responses to "DEVAN DUBNYK 11-12: COMES A TIME"

  1. dawgtoy says:

    Thanks LT, keep up the good work and the awesome posts. Also as a sidebar, I’d like to that all those that contribute through there comments, I read them all daily with my morning cup of coffee.

  2. Jordan says:

    IS he a #1 goalie? Ask Asiaoil, he knows goalies better than I do. I’m cheering for the young man and he has improved his consistency.

    Hey Asia… LT said I should ask you – Is Devan Dubnyk a number 1 goalie?

  3. Henry says:

    I don’t have numbers to back me up, but Dubnyk looks better than most on shootouts. He skates well and guys have problems deking him. As the Oilers move into playoff contention, those shitty Bettman points will get very important.

  4. Mr DeBakey says:

    I just read yesterday’s MacT thread

    Godot10, who likes to play the contrarian, threw up a sweetheart at 5:39:

    Huddy will have Smid back at left wing in no time. Huddy developed Greene so slowly that Lowe and MacT decided to trade him. Huddy left Hejda sitting in the pressbox for half-a-season. Huddy and MacT also sent Pitkanen packing.
    Seeing the progress that Smid and Petry have made under Steve Smith

    – Pitkanen asked to be traded
    – Smid was playing good before Steve Smith hit town. Very good.
    – Petry’s progress, better than Gilbert’s at a comparable point? Cast your mind back.
    – MacT [not Huddy] played Smid for couple of games at wing when coming back from injury
    – 300 games later and dis guy Greene is still a turd-pairing defenseman

    Hejda. You might have a point there. Maybe they [Huddy?] should have given a Czech-only speaker with no N.A. experience a tonne of ice-time right from the start. Cuz he sure looked good after practicing with the team for half-a-season.

    **

    Dubnyk Good
    Khabibulin Bad

  5. DSF says:

    Not sure why a team with playoff aspirations would go into a new season with a goaltender who “might” provide league average goaltending and an aging backup who has proven repeatedly that he can’t get the job done.

    Considering the FA goaltenders who will likely be available, I don’t see why this would even be consideration.

  6. fuzzy muppet says:

    DSF,

    NOBODY beside the buffoon running the team sees this tandom as a viable option.

    Dubnyk and a garbage can would be better than NK.

  7. gd says:

    Personally I feel. comfortable that DD is a top 20 in the league goalie and NK is adequate as a backup for 25 games next year. I feel the bigger need is one legit top 4 Dman and a strong top 6 Dman as Whitney insurance (Tyutin and Kuba?) and a coaching upgrade and the Oil can finish in the top 10 in the West.

    I loook at the goalies who I think will be available and the teams needing goalies more then the Oilers and my best guess would be;

    Luongo-TB. Thomas-Chi. Bernier-LA. Vokuon-CBJ. Harding -NJ (if Broduer retires)

    If Brodeur keeps playing than maybe the market for Harding is weak enough for the Oil to get him, otherwise my preference is ride out the NK contract and get someone like Neuvirth next year to be a 1B goalie.

  8. LMHF#1 says:

    Thomas – Dubnyk or bust. If we must keep Dubnyk that is.

  9. jb says:

    DSF:
    Not sure why a team with playoff aspirations would go into a new season with a goaltender who “might” provide league average goaltending and an aging backup who has proven repeatedly that he can’t get the job done.

    They wouldn’t. It’s what a team looking to tank would be icing every night. It’s another year “re-building” unless a defender/goaltender, or a pair of defenders is added at minimum. I think we’re buyers, taking on salary at the deadline. Playoffs would likely be out of reach with the team as-is plus Yakupov, though if they remain relatively healthy… they could surprise and be playing 82 meaningful games I’d think.

  10. TheOtherJohn says:

    DSF

    It KILLS me to say this but Lowe and Tambellini do not have playoff aspirations for next year, they have a plan. The plan is really really vague as to when accountability starts but I suspect they are thinking 14-20th this coming year. That may, yet again, result in us being in the lottery but how bad can it be, really?

    WC semifinalists all had superior goaltending. Do the Oilers? Quick is the same age, Halak, Elliot are a year older, Bernier and Lindback are younger and Smith and Rinne are 4 years older. Maybe Dubnyk will develop into an elite goalie, but that would require progressive improvement

  11. Ducey says:

    fuzzy muppet:
    DSF,
    NOBODY beside the buffoon running the team sees this tandom as a viable option.
    Dubnyk and a garbage can would be better than NK.

    Bulin had a .910 save % which was 31st in the NHL. Theoretically that should make him the best backup in the league.

    He was tied with Hiller and ahead of Bryz and Brodeur. Those guys are all starters.

    I don’t get the hatred for Bulin. Maybe he was a poor signing based on age and salary but having a backup vet who is well liked, has a Cup ring and can speak Russian with the Nail has value. As long as he plays no more than 30 games, I am good with it.

    If things work out he might be able to bring back something at the deadline and a guy like Roy could move up.

    If and when this team improves its defensive play, both DD’s and Bulin’s numbers will improve for it. Its not a coincidence that most of the “best” goalies play behind teams with a defense first mentality.

  12. DSF says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    DSF

    It KILLS me to say this but Lowe and Tambellini do not have playoff aspirations for next year, they have a plan. The plan is really really vague as to when accountability starts but I suspect they are thinking 14-20th this coming year. That may, yet again, result in us being in the lottery but how bad can it be, really?

    WC semifinalists all had superior goaltending. Do the Oilers?Quick is the same age, Halak, Elliot are a year older, Bernier and Lindback are younger and Smith and Rinne are 4 years older. Maybe Dubnyk will develop into an elite goalie, but that would require progressive improvement

    Word is, LA is going to trade Bernier.

    With Zatkoff and Jones in Manchester available to back up Quick, that seems like a good bet to me.

    Bernier has one year left at $1.25M before RFA status.

    I would think the Oilers should be all over that possibility.

    Bernier didn’t have a great season (.909) but he is only 23 (perfect) and has had a couple of monster seasons in the AHL (.946 and .936).

    I agree, however, that the brain trust will likely run with the Dubnyk and Khabibulin tandem with predictable results.

  13. DSF says:

    Ducey: Bulin had a .910 save % which was 31st in the NHL. Theoretically that should make him the best backup in the league.

    He was tied with Hiller and ahead of Bryz and Brodeur. Those guys are all starters.

    I don’t get the hatred for Bulin. Maybe he was a poor signing based on age and salary but having a backup vet who is well liked, has a Cup ring and can speak Russian with the Nail has value. As long as he plays no more than 30 games, I am good with it.

    If things work out he might be able to bring back something at the deadline and a guy like Roy could move up.

    If and when this team improves its defensive play, both DD’s and Bulin’s numbers will improve for it. Its not a coincidence that most of the “best” goalies play behind teams with a defense first mentality.

    Bulin’s numbers last season were buoyed by a 12 game stretch of .965 goaltending.

    Unless you think that is repeatable, the sub .900 goaltending he provided for the remainder of the season is likely a reasonable expectation.

  14. Ducey says:

    DSF:
    Bulin’s numbers last season were buoyed by a 12 game stretch of .965 goaltending.
    Unless you think that is repeatable, the sub .900 goaltending he provided for the remainder of the season is likely a reasonable expectation.

    Well, you can cherry pick anyone’s season. The .907 career save % is a good indication of what he might provide.

  15. nathan says:

    Mr DeBakey,

    Hey it’s all grassy knoll stuff, but maybe after Vancouver extends their coach, maybe we see MacT as Oilers Assistant GM. I’d trust him to manage cap, player recall, evaluations etc. A detail guy with coaching experience and an MBA breathing down his neck is just what Tambi needs. Would like to be a fly on the wall when Tambi tries to convince Katz to put MacT behind the bench at mid season and ends up being replaced instead.

  16. bendelson says:

    Ducey,

    DSF is correct. NK was downright brutal after the first 14 games…

    Sure Ducey, defend NK as a good teammate and well liked personality in the room, but on the ice? Forget about it.

    Harding or Bernier with a solid Danis as the 3rd string is a huge improvement over the current situation.

    Fire Tambo so GM MacT can make it happen.

  17. stevezie says:

    What if the Oil go out and get someone to push a goalie, but by goalie they mean Khabi? Let’s say they resign reinging AHL goalie of the year Yan Danis, or prodigal goalie Christobel Huet for $875, and make it clear to everyone that the role of Devon’s backup is up for grabs? Rather than pushing the kid, they have the veterns battling for respect.

    Eh? EH? What if?

    In all seriousness, they should offer sheet Scnieder. Just to mess with them.

  18. bendelson says:

    GM – MacT and coach Sutter vs the current situation.

    Hmm, I’m not a big Sutter fan but this would nevertheless be a large step forward IMO.

    Status quo doesn’t work…. Too much 30th place baggage to overcome.

  19. Mr DeBakey says:

    Hey it’s all grassy knoll…

    I just thought a pile of hoo-haw that deep shouldn’t be allowed to pass unchallenged.

    There are pertinent questions that could be asked.
    What about MacT’s role in the non-signing of Hejda – was he for it, against it?
    Things like that
    I remember MacT publically asking for Reasoner to be re-signed and he wasn’t, so who knows.

  20. Traktor says:

    I’m fine with discounting Bulin’s best 10 game stretch but if someone did that with Gagner I’m not sure it would be well received.

    All the sudden Gagner looks like a 35 point player that doesn’t bring much in terms of defensive play or physicality.

    I’m not sold on DD. He didn’t start playing well until Edmonton was well out of the playoff race.

  21. bendelson says:

    Traktor,

    The difference between Gagner and NK is one is deteriorating with little to NO potential for improvemt and the other still has room (and time though it’s running out) to improve as a player.

    DD is approx. .500 over the past two seasons… Not bad for a younger goalie on the worst team in the league.

    I like him (always have) but your right to the extent that he will be somewhat of a question mark until he can get this team into the playoffs.

  22. Captain Obvious says:

    I like the idea of trading for Bernier if the price isn’t too high. Halak was a lot higher regarded and he only cost Lars Eller. What is the Oilers equivalent of worse version of Lars Eller? I’d trade Pitlick for Bernier.

    Another guy the Oilers should look at is Vokoun. I don’t know what his injury situation is but that would be a great buy low opportunity.

    But really, anybody but Khabibulin.

  23. Jordan says:

    Captain Obvious,

    Don’t like trading Pitlick right now. At all. Guy is turning it on hard in the playoffs – scores, skates like the wind, hits like a truck, and has size.

    We don’t need a player like that though – better trade him for a suspect goaltending prospect… :/

  24. Captain Obvious says:

    Jordan,

    That’s a hilarious. I made a lowball offer for Bernier and you think it is too much.

  25. Ducey says:

    Captain Obvious: I like the idea of trading for Bernier if the price isn’t too high. Halak was a lot higher regarded and he only cost Lars Eller. What is the Oilers equivalent of worse version of Lars Eller? I’d trade Pitlick for Bernier. Another guy the Oilers should look at is Vokoun. I don’t know what his injury situation is but that would be a great buy low opportunity. But really, anybody but Khabibulin.

    That’s robbing Peter to pay Paul. The Oilers are short of big, tough players that might be able to play in the top 6 or 9. Pitlick seems to be excelling after a slow start as a rookie. Emerging power forward prospects are pretty darn valuable and the Oilers don’t have very many.

    Plus is Bernier that good? Using the same cherry picking that everyone likes to do with Bulin, Bernier was at .895 (9 games) pre all star and .929 (7 games) post all star for a save % of .909. Last year he had a .893 save % (14 games) before the all star game and .939 after the all star game (11 games). He was at .913 last year.

    Bernier was playing behind the best defence in hockey, Bulin (and DD) behind one of the worst, yet they had the same save %.

    Bernier is younger and might improve, but you need a weegie board to guess what young goalies are going to do.

  26. Captain Obvious says:

    If Pitlick were an emerging power forward I’d agree. However, Bernier is a lot closer to be a #1 NHL goalie than Pitlick is to being a front line NHL player.

    In any case, it hardly matters because the Kings are going to get more than Pitlick for Bernier.

  27. bendelson says:

    Ducey,

    A weegie board?

    Not to ‘cherry pick’ your vocabulary but…

    Good stuff. :)

  28. godot10 says:

    Buy-out Khabibulin.

    Sign Danis to a two-year one-way deal, which makes him waiver claim proof. And go sign somebody else cheap like Clemmenson or The Monster on a one year deal.

    Harding is a system goaltender and injury prone and will cost too much. Bernier is unproven with weak stats and will cost too much. Vokoun would be another 35plus contract.

    I’d like to enter the season next year with Dubnyk, Danis, and Clemmenson.

    Danis is a better risk/reward/value than most of the “namey” types from other organizations in the NHL.

  29. stevezie says:

    godot10,

    I have no problem with that platoon. There’s lots and lots of goalies available this summer, but since we have Dubnyk we don’t need a home run, we just need an improvement on a decent contract. I’d rather keep Khabi than sign another bad contract. Hell, as far your example goes, I’m putting Khabi in the Clemenson spot. No one is going to claim him on waivers, and even if they do, big deal, Roy just gets promoted (which might happen anyway, he killed in tier three).

    Captain Obvious,
    Ducey,

    Pitlick is having a good playoffs and Bernier does seem overrated, but he’s still going to fetch a lot more than Pitlick.
    I’m not sure we can use Halak as a comparable because that GM was pretty not good.

  30. asiaoil says:

    Actually not a lot to say here that I haven’t outlined before. DD was basically a .500 goalie with a .915 SP on the worst team in the league over the past 2 years. Pretty much league average starter performance on a team that was at the bottom of the dumpster – you take that every day of the week and run. If figure the ST issue was injury related as his groin was bugging him this season – could have hampered his lateral motion which is not a strong point at the best of times. DD’s biggest issue is consistency which is true for almost all young goalies since that takes a lot of years to develop. With about 100 starts you should start to see that improve but it will not be fully matured until about 200 games – or another 2 years. These guys develop by sun dial and patience is everything with goalies – but DD is on pace to mature with the core young forwards. My Sean Burke comp remains intact 7 years down the road. Next year he should start about 50 games as clear starter with good veteran support from a guy who accepts that he’s the backup. I’d go into camp with Nik and another veteran goalie (Danis or someone else) that knows that their role is Crash Davis and supporting DD.

    As for Bernier and Harding – I’m unconvinced that either guy is right for us. Harding’s numbers are not particularly impressive playing behind a very defensive Wild squad for the most part. His only really good SP years happened on a small number of starts and he’s had injury issues. DD is his equal and probably better. Bernier is all about potential based on a single very good year in the AHL – not a lot of starts over the last 2 years – but he could be where DD was before this past season. If you can get him cheap then yeah it may be worth a shot – but I don’t like developing 2 young goalies at the same time – too much potential to mess with confidence and trash one or both youngsters. Not everyone feels that way and there is the “competition makes them better” school of thought – but I don’t particularly buy that as best practice for goalies.

    So yeah DD had a good year and you up the bar a bit more each season until you find out where he tops out. Still unclear where that is but it’s getting safer to say that he could be a better than league average starter with a couple seasons of magic thrown in where everything hits him. Hopefully that happens when the young forwards are ready to contend.

  31. commonfan14 says:

    Buying out Khabby saves the team nothing at all under the cap for next year (the full hit remains and then it’s nothing the next year, although they would be paying him salary that year), and then they’d have to add the cap hit for his replacement. All it saves is $1.25 million in actual money.

    Sending him to the minors saves no actual money, but clears $3.75 million in cap space for next year.

    I’m guessing Khabby would rather go to the minors and get his full $3.75 million, but maybe he thinks he can make up more than the lost $1.25 million playing somewhere else next year (KHL?). It’s possible I suppose.

    But if the team values $3.75 million in cap space more than they value $1.25 million in cash, they should bury him rather than buy him out..

  32. bookje says:

    DSF: s guy Greene

    Khabibulin might be a decent backup if he only needs to play 15-20 games.

  33. DSF says:

    bookje: Khabibulin might be a decent backup if he only needs to play 15-20 games.

    He might but I can’t for the life of me understand why the Oilers would take that chance if they want to make the playoffs.

    I’m too lazy to look up his save percentage in the last 20 games when DD was getting the majority of the starts but I’d wager it wasn’t pretty.

    Oh wait, I got ambitious.

    Last 10 games he played:

    Feb 8 – .867

    Feb 11 – .929

    Feb 15 – .846

    Feb 19 – .882

    Mar 2 – .857

    Mar 5 – .867

    Mar 8 – .867

    Mar 10 – .938

    Mar 22 – .905

    Mar 30 – .875

    2 decent games out of 10 and it’s not like he was being over worked at that point.

  34. Schitzo says:

    Ducey: Well, you can cherry pick anyone’s season. The .907 career save % is a good indication of what he might provide.

    I appreciate the point you’re arguing, but the extreme example of why it’s a flawed argument is that we should sign Dom Hasek, because his career .922 is a good indication of what he might provide.

    An age-related fall-off is something that past performance simply cannot predict.

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