STU MACGREGOR 11-12: LOOSE CHANGE

Since 2008, the only thing Oiler fans could agree on was Stu MacGregor. And even that seems to be changing.

  1. How did he get the job? MacGregor must have been the most credible man in the room when the organization decided to move away from Prendergast.
  2. Why did they fire KP? The 2007 draft killed him. Three first round picks in 2007 and the organizatioon is still waiting on two of them. Nash is going backwards and Plante was a raw project. KP ran the group from 2001 through 2007–7 drafts–and they must have felt they didn’t get enough.
  3. Did they? I count the following as good to exceptional players: Ales Hemsky, Jarret Stoll, Matt Greene, Kyle Brodziak, Devan Dubnyk, Andrew Cogliano, Jeff Petry, Sam Gagner. That’s 8. A little over one per year.
  4. Is that good? Years ago I read a thing that said 2 NHLers per year is a good number.
  5. Please stop spending so much time and effort on research. Okay.
  6. Was KP good? I’d say average. His first pick was Hemsky, I don’t think he delivered better value than that one. But there were some good picks in there, Stoll and Brodziak and honestly Gagner and Petry could end up being outstanding players.
  7. Okay, why DO you like the “magnificent bastard” so much. Arrows. His players have good arrows.
  8. And what the hell does that mean? Allow me to show you. Every prospect starts with a clean slate after they’re drafted and then they begin to add good or bad arrows. Example: Martin Gernat. We knew he was big and could wheel, but since then he’s shown some offensive ability and improved defensively. Plus he’s making better decisions and has emerged as a major player on a strong junior team. Just turned 19. Or Tyler Bunz, or Tobias Rieder. These young men would go much higher in a re-draft.
  9. Says you. Yes. Actually, it’s an interesting exercise to ask the following question: if the NHL draft was at 20-years old, how many of these players would go higher?
  10. Okay. If the NHL draft was at 20-years old, how many of these players would go higher? Eberle, Hartikainen, Roy, Bunz, Simpson, Rieder, Gernat. That’s my guess, anyway.
  11. If the NHL draft was at 20-years old, how many of these players would go lower? Hesketh, Abney, Martindale, Perhonen, Ewanyk.
  12. Sounds about even. I’d suggest it shows the one large flaw in the Oilers current drafting model.
  13. What’s that? The club–and this goes back awhile, long before Stu–uses the 3rd round to buy long shots. By that I mean that even if Cam Abney or Travis Ewanyk work out they’re going to be fringe types. However, the Oilers have organization slots to fill–”enforcer” and “tough 4th line winger with hair on his ass” and they continue to pick them miles before logic and good sense suggests would be reasonable.
  14. Well take us through a draft and show us what you mean. Sure. 2009 is an example. The Oilers list set up really well that year, I expect. Doubt the club thought they’d get Paajarvi at #10 and they must have been pretty pleased about Lander at #40. Now, they’re two rounds in and I would bet good money Stu’s rocking and rolling. The suits are losing interest because let’s face it they don’t know their ass from a hole in the ground prospect-wise once the tsn lights shut down and MBS has delivered two terrific young prospects in the top 40. It’s already a good draft.
  15. So then what? So, then they start asking area scouts about this guy and that guy, because you know maybe the club hasn’t drafted a player in his area for about 10 freaking years. And you’ve heard New Jersey was sniffing around and you’ve gotta beat Lou to the punch because they’re always getting your guy and there’s  a lot of respect but dammit my guy Mike likes him. So you draft Troy Hesketh. And then you remember what the GM said (“we need someone to protect the kids, find me a Semenko in there”) and suddenly you’ve spent another pick on Cam Abney.
  16. And then? Then you go back to drafting hockey players. Bigos, Rajala, Roy. The Oilers often get better players in later rounds because their “draft for need” round is #3.
  17. Who are the third round picks under Stu? Hesketh, Abney, Martindale, Perhonen, Ewanyk.
  18. Incredible. So round 3 is where they grab the novelties and reward scouts who have had their favorites overlooked? That’s my guess, yes. It is certainly that way in baseball, suspect there’s an element of the same in hockey. You’ve got a guy at the table who was pushing (say) John Carlson over Eberle in 2008 and was also strong on Drew Shore and the team went Lander. You know the guy and don’t want to lose him, plus he’s over there thinking about the 200 grand travelling miles and the HoJo in Des Moines so you yell over “hey, you’re sure Wisconsin is strong on this Hesketh kid?” I can see that happening, sure.
  19. These kids hit the AHL and fall flat. Prospects rarely develop in a straight line and you have to be patient. Pitlick has some nice things: he’s 6.02, 195. 22 even strength goals final year of junior, didn’t turn 20 until after he’d played 8 AHL games. Took a long time to get rolling–and ice time was an issue–but he’s 2-5-7 in his last 9. This difficult season in the AHL may be followed by a very good one.
  20. The only MacGregor pick that isn’t a #1 overall who can play is Eberle. Really? You’re calling the 2010 draft now? Come on. Lots CAN happen but there are good arrows here: goal (Roy, Bunz) defense (Klefbom, Marincin, Gernat, Musil, Simpson) and forward (Hartikainen, Paajarvi, Lander, Pitlick). Not all will work out, but there’s just too much to ignore.
  21. What did Dellow say when he put the boots to you? Tyler said “MacGregor’s early returns, adjusting for draft slot, look average, to slightly above average. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise”. That’s not exactly ripping the draft record since 2008.
  22. No no, he kicked you so hard in the nuts you were breathless. You mean his comment on Pitlick and Hamilton? Tyler said “they’re clearly well off the pace of guys who turn into 0.5 PPG guys or better in the NHL. That leaves making it as a player who doesn’t provide a ton of offence. We’ll see.” My guess is Tyler would now say Pitlick has recovered a little, Hamilton hasn’t played since his injury and the jury is still out.
  23. Okay, let’s do the math. How many have arrived as NHL players. Eberle plus the #1 overall picks, and I assume we’re not going to give credit for Hall and Nuge.
  24. Damn straight. Okay, I think it’s ridiculous but fine.
  25. Ridiculous? Look, MBS and the scouting staff chose Taylor Hall and RNH. That has value.
  26. Well let’s agree he shouldn’t be punished for his choices at #1. Great. Very fair of you.
  27. Who are the best prospects beyond Eberle and the #1′s. I’ll choose Paajarvi, Lander, Klefbom, Marincin.
  28. Are there any others? Tons. Hartikainen, Pitlick, Roy, Bunz, Musil, Simpson, Rieder, Gernat.
  29. 12 prospects on track? Plus Eberle and the two #1′s.
  30. 15 prospects in 4 years on track? Yes.
  31. Not all will make it. That’s for sure.
  32. Half of them will fail. Fine. That’s 8.
  33. Name the 8. Hall, Eberle, Nuge, Klefbom, Paajarvi, Lander, Marincin and one of the goalies.
  34. That’s two a year. Well, he did get the two #1′s, and remember I spent a pile on the research we talked about back at #4.
  35. This is one long damn discussion. I was waiting a long time for Stu MacGregor, let me enjoy this. As a guy who read the HN waiting for kind words about Jason Soules and Peter Soberlak and Kim Issel this is outstanding production–even excluding the #1 overalls.
  36. What about the good drafting teams? Let’s take Chicago.
  37. Good. What’s their best 4 year window? I’ll say 04-07. They brought in Bolland, Brouwer, Hjalmarsson, Toews and Kane. Just before that it was Seabrook, Byfuglien, Keith, etc.
  38. How many good to great from 02-07? Well, that’s six drafts so isn’t quite fair to MBS since he’s had four. But here’s the list: Duncan Keith, James Wisniewski, Brent Seabrook, Dustin Byfuglien, Dave Bolland, Troy Brouwer, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane.
  39. Nine in 6 years? Well yes, but look at the nine. That’s a tour de force right there.
  40. Have the Oilers drafted impact players under Stu MacGregor? Yes.
  41. The best player Stu MacGregor drafted is? Taylor Hall.
  42. Anyone else in Kane, Toews range? RNH could be, that’s a pretty tough range.
  43. Who are his Keith’s and Seabrook’s? Klefbom, Marincin, Gernat, there are candidates.
  44. In your opinion, will they take Yakupov? I honestly don’t know. I do believe the club would like to have a Duncan Keith in their lineup and balance is a beautiful word.
  45. Arrows. That’s all you’ve got to defend him. And Loose Change.

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73 Responses to "STU MACGREGOR 11-12: LOOSE CHANGE"

  1. Woodguy says:

    Who are the third round picks under Stu? Hesketh, Abney, Martindale, Perhonen, Ewanyk.

    Martindale doesn’t fit in the coke machine category.

    He scored 60pts in 61gms for the 67′s in his draft year. He was the last pt/gm CHL player left on the board.

    The question marks were desire, work ethic, etc. He’s tall (6’3″), but a lanky 207.

    Given his less than stellar start to his pro career, the reasons he fell were valid.

    If the Oilers didn’t take Abney, you could make an argument that he wouldn’t have been drafted at all. 3rd round!! Lordy.

    Wish the Oiler’s had a 3rd rounder to burn on a coke machine in 2007.

    After the 3 first rounders (3 assets!!), they didn’t pick again until the 4th where they took Youtube, then 5th round took Kytnar, following their “longshot skill” picks in the later rounds template.

    Benn went in the 5th round to Dallas that year, perhaps they draft him in the 3rd round if they had one.

    The Benn thing is all in jest, 20/20 hindsight on drafts is the worst to read, but it does make you wonder…..

  2. Woodguy says:

    No no, he kicked you so hard in the nuts you were breathless. You mean his comment on Pitlick and Hamilton? Tyler said “they’re clearly well off the pace of guys who turn into 0.5 PPG guys or better in the NHL. That leaves making it as a player who doesn’t provide a ton of offence. We’ll see.” My guess is Tyler would now say Pitlick has recovered a little, Hamilton hasn’t played since his injury and the jury is still out.

    Pitlick was consensus at 31. I know Derek Zona and others were thrilled that the Oilers picked him.

    I think Tyler was judging Pitlick a year too early on his production.

    He changed leagues every year for 3 years.

    He started on OKC, not in a feature role like most prominent draft picks, but in a role he could handle and was given more as he earned it.

    Its actually a nice change. The Oilers tend to throw kids to the wolves, but managing ice time in OKC for someone who needs it is music compared to the past.

    There is no question that Pitlick will be top 6 in forward ice time next year in OKC, and the results expected from him should come (barring injury, river rising, comet hitting the earth etc)

    Now that OKC is playing the Marlies in the AHL West final, we should get a first hand look. Pretty stoked about that.

    Also,

    NJD in 5, LAK in 5.

    LAK in 6 in the finals.

    Penner will have 2 cup rings.

    2!!

    And his won’t be 20+ years old like Vish.

  3. speeds says:

    I think it’s a bit too early to accurately judge MacGregor’s work*. I don’t think the results look exceptional, at this point. To be exceptional, I think that would involve a few more picks that currently look better, like EDM having picked Faulk instead of Pitlick (and I liked Pitlick at 31 at the time of the draft) and Eakin instead of Abney, etc. I think the collective picks look good at this point, promising, could be better, could drop off.

    *And that’s ignoring the fact that he only picks the guys on draft day. If the development system is subpar, or the development of the players drafted is subpar after they are picked (but in a way that was unknowable at the time of the draft) that will hurt his results but I’m not sure it’s really his fault.

  4. justDOit says:

    Not defending KP here, but the Oilers’ development system for his draft picks was – well, it was pretty much non-existent.

    Edit: Ok, since we’re going there:

    NJD in 6
    LAK in 7

    NJD in 6

  5. speeds says:

    To continue my * (time ran out while I was doing some corrections):

    I wrote “*And that’s ignoring the fact that he only picks the guys on draft day. ”

    That’s not really accurate, as you alluded to in your article. He ranks the players on draft day, he doens’t necessarily pick them. If MacGregor has player X at the top of his list, and Lowe/Tambellini decide to fill a need instead of taking that player, we don’ t really have a way of knowing that. I guess that cuts both ways. We might suspect he was told to fill a need at some point, and if the pick was a bust we really shouldn’t fault him for that, but we don’t really know with certainty. On the other hand, if Lowe/Tambellini select someone to fill a need, and that pick is a home run, I don’t know MacGregor should get the same amount of credit as if it were his BPA but, again, how do we know unless we’re told?

  6. Woodguy says:

    . If the development system is subpar, or the development of the players drafted is subpar after they are picked (but in a way that was unknowable at the time of the draft) that will hurt his results but I’m not sure it’s really his fault.

    That’s a key point that both Speeds and JDI hit.

    If there is one thing I will always fully credit Tambellini with, its creating a much, much, much better development system.

    Not only in OKC, but also keeping in regular contact with everyone on the protected list and working with them.

    Light years and galaxies away from the draft and hope system that used to dominate.

    Katz bought the team in the summer of 08 and they hired Tambellini in the same summer so I’m not 100% it was Tambellini or Batman’s money, but either way its better.

  7. spoiler says:

    I find this to be a funny way of looking at the draft–that the head scout should be judged by all of his picks.

    Any prospect from beyond the second round is a bust from the get-go. Question is did you get lucky and pick the one or two guys from that round that blossom into something? And is that predictable? (it quite obviously isn’t) Nor do I think there’s any true order or ranking to players when you get that deep.*

    So I have great difficulty evaluating scouting on whether or not they got some blind luck going on.

    These scouts should really only be evaluated based on their top couple of picks, where there actually is some skill in the picking (but by no means certainty). KP’s problem was blowing first and second rounders.

    Now maybe you could make an argument for top 90 evaluation as opposed to top 60, but I can’t see going beyond that.

    *there are obviously some exceptions like Gernat, Detroit’s Euro-centres etc where you have a guy ranked much higher, but he’s off the radar and you can steal him later in the draft. That’s becoming a rarer occurence in this info-age though. Pretty much have to be playing in Rwanda or the Midnapoor Beer League.

  8. Lowetide says:

    LAK in 6
    NYR in 5

  9. FPB94 says:

    I like Macgregor a lot. I also think you have might have personality issues getting near 50 questions.

    I always believed a scouts’ job is plucking guys who are further ahead in their category of play (Junior) then others, and whatever happened in the AHL was due to other factors such as luck, or simply having a great or terrible development system.

    Still. They got to stop wasting 3rd round picks. You do that kinda stuff in the 6th-7th round.

  10. FPB94 says:

    spoiler,

    For some reason, Trevor Timmins seems to excel more in later rounds than the earlier rounds.

    The guy’s a machine.

  11. kosiork says:

    Funny you should mention Hesketh. The Star-Tribune ran a feature on him this winter, noting that he was a high draft pick now playing D3. There is another drafted kid in the same loop, but I can’t recall his name. Everyone (including his agents) was very high on Hesketh’s raw potential. Tough to gauge some of the local MN high schools kids because of the lack of context. They look great in HS games but sometimes the talent doesn’t translate…

    I remember desperately wanting Kim Issel to crack the lineup. Big Raiders fan back in the day.

  12. Lowetide says:

    I always liked Issel too. Showed well in some TC’s and I followed him through his Oiler career (dealt to Pittsburgh trade deadline 1991). The Oilers had a massive number of guys who couldn’t make it back then, but then again one of the problems was the big league roster.

  13. spoiler says:

    FPB

    How sustainable is that over the long term? Do you truly put that down to skill? If so, then why is Timmins weaker on earlier picks? And wouldn’t you’d rather it was the other way around?

  14. oilersfan says:

    I have asked this question about ten times and never even drawn so much as a reply let alone an adequate answer, so here goes , for the eleventh time:

    We can all agree that two of the big blown picks in the last ten years have been Plante and Nash. So if Stu is so Magniicent, where was he when those two were picked? He was the head scout for westerrn canada. He lives in Kamloops which is a two hour drive from Salmon Arm where Nash played. Hard to argue that Nash wasn’t Stu’s pick. The evidence shows it is highly likey he was indeed Stu’s pick. Plante played in the WHL for Red Deer, again, highly likely that was Stu’s pick as the Western Canada scout. The OIlers went off the board somewhat with both him and Nash, two Western kids picked by Lowe with KP as chief scout but Stu was the Western Canada based scout. If he is so great why did he recommend those two total duds? Or at the very least not talking KP out of it? He would have likely seen both play 50 times before they were drafted.

    To make matters worse, a lot of good players were picked after them. David Perron, PK Subban, Paccioretty.

    Until someone can show he was blameless on these two blunders he remains Mediocre Bastard Stu. And anyone saying “in Stu we trust” isn’t looking at all the evidence.

  15. FPB94 says:

    Spoiler : He seems to be less subject to need/popular demand and can do whatever he wants. Tough lately he’s been improving a lot in the earlier rounds.

    (Leblanc, Pacioretty, Subban, Mcdonagh, Kristo etc)

  16. DSF says:

    oilersfan:
    I have asked this question about ten times and never even drawn so much as a reply let alone an adequate answer, so here goes , for the eleventh time:

    We can all agree that two of the big blown picks in the last ten years have been Plante and Nash. So if Stu is so Magniicent, where was he when those two were picked? He was the head scout for westerrn canada. He lives in Kamloops which is a two hour drive from Salmon Arm where Nash played. Hard to argue that Nash wasn’t Stu’s pick. The evidence shows it is highly likey he was indeed Stu’s pick. Plante played in the WHL for Red Deer, again, highly likely that was Stu’s pick as the Western Canada scout. The OIlers went off the board somewhat with both him and Nash, two Western kids picked by Lowe with KP as chief scout but Stu was the Western Canada based scout. If he is so great why did he recommend those two total duds? Or at the very least not talking KP out of it? He would have likely seen both play 50 times before they were drafted.

    To make matters worse, a lot of good players were picked after them. David Perron, PK Subban, Paccioretty.

    Until someone can show he was blameless on these two blunders he remains Mediocre Bastard Stu. And anyone saying “in Stu we trust” isn’t looking at all the evidence.

    Don’t mention the war.

    Or Kulikov.

  17. eidy says:

    I am a fan of MBS. He seems to have a better feel for the draft than his predecessors. I also wonder how much of this is due to bulking up the amateur procurement team. Looking at the draft picks under his watch I have tried to break it down into NHL players, on the cusp, up arrows or tracking well, neither up or down arrows, and down arrows/bust.

    since 2008 I would say this:
    NHL players: 3 (Ebs, Hall, Nuge)
    On the cusp: 3 (MPS, lander, Harti)
    Tracking well: 12 (Roy, Pitlick, Marincin, Bunz, Davidson, Blain, Pelss, Kelfbom, Musil, Simpson, Reider, Gernat)
    treading water: 8 (Cornet, Bigos, Rajala, Hamilton, Martindale, Czerwonka, Jones, Ewanyk, Tuohimaa)
    Down arrows/busts: 6 (Motin, Bendfield, Hesketh, Abney, Perhonen)

    By year: 2008: 1 NHL player, one on the cusp, one treading water and 2 on the way out
    2009: 2 on the cusp, 2 trending well, one treading water and 2 on the way out
    2010: 1 NHL, 5 trending well, 3 treading water, and 2 down arrows
    2011: one NHL, 5 trending well, 2 teading water and one down arow

    Now as we get further along most of the treading water and probably 2/3 of the tracking well will fade. So say none of the trading waters make it (which is likely) and 75% of the tracking will fade away, that still leaves 9-10 players out of 32 draft picks. Given this cluster, I think this is a reasonable guess.

  18. Lowetide says:

    Oilersfan: I don’t know how we would know if Nash was MacGregor’s guy, it would probably have been several scouts agreeing. We know that during that period Edmonton had all of their scouts look at the top 50 players so a guess would be that all eyes were on him and that most if not the entire scouting staff was convinced.

    Plante I’m less sure of, because the immediate reaction was negative. That was the year Team 1260 did the draft at Schanks, and I dropped by to say hello to the boys. Guy Flaming–who was part of the broadcast and did an exceptional job–took me aside that afternoon before round one and told me he felt Plante was going to be picked with the Islander selection at 15. He had interview Prendergast several times, but had not been “tipped off” with inside info. I remember that moment because Guy isn’t the sort of fellow to do that kind of thing. I’ve known him for a decade and that’s the only time I recall him doing it.

    Stauffer–who was hosting the coverage and well connected–was all over taking the Russian Cherapanov iirc but it didn’t happen. Edmonton went with Plante as Guy had suggested to me hours earlier, but knowing Bob as I did it struck me that he would have probably had better intel than Guy at that time.

    This was a period of transition for the organization–a little over a year later Katz was in and Tambellini was hired. So, I think somewhere in there Plante may have become a lightning rod selection and it landed on Prendergast. I don’t know why it would have landed there instead of MacGregor and of course other items could/may/were probably involved.

    But, obviously, a guess.

  19. TheOtherJohn says:

    Think we will know what we have in Stu MacGregor in 1-2 years.

    Only 2 guys who definitely look like they will make it from 2nd round or later are Pitlick (who I would love to leave in AHL for 35 games next year) and the Finn. Jury is out on everyone else. Lander does nothing offensively. And if he can’t score at the AHL, even in a checking role, he ain’t gonna score in the NHL. He is not Dave Bolland lite

    Marincin and Musil should play 65 games in the AHL next year.

    Everyone keeps saying we have a solid development system. That very well may be. But it is not tied to the current success of the OKC Barons this season. They have veteran laden team that is not driven by the prospects.

  20. eidy says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    I would disagree with that to a degree. We do rely heavily on Danis for sure. Less so it seems to me with Keller and Green, more of a score by committee After watching some of the games and seeing the last 20 boxscores, there is some players in prominent position with MPS, Harti, Pitlick, and to a lesser degree lander showing pretty well. The defense is a dog’s breakfast but plante and chorney are playing top 4 roles and teubert would if he was healthy.

    I would like to see some of the depth on the 4th line next year. Tremblay, CVV, and tyravainnan should get a long look at training camp imo. Hordichuk should be gone and I would give tremblay a shot rather than Pettrell. Probably doesn’t make much differenc eswithing 5′s and 6′s on a team, but I don’t think Pettrell brings enough offence and Tremblay might. Also the fiesty finn may be just the kind of agitator that makes him a fan favorit.

  21. oilersfan says:

    I don’t think Musil is eligible to play in the ahl next year.

    I am as big of a yakupov supporter as anyone here, but does anybody know why he isn’t playing on the russian whc team? If he is nhl ready surely he is better than some of the slugs on there…

    And I hope flames fans and other oiler haters don’t call him Yankupov or Wankupov but I suppose that will be inevitable once he becomes a perennial 40 goal scorer.

  22. godot10 says:

    justDOit:
    Not defending KP here, but the Oilers’ development system for his draft picks was – well, it was pretty much non-existent.

    Uh…Kevin Prendergast was promoted and given the job of developing all his picks…i.e. he was responsible for the 3-year fiasco in Springfield.

  23. DSF says:

    “Who are the best prospects beyond Eberle and the #1′s. I’ll choose Paajarvi, Lander, Klefbom, Marincin.”

    I think you have to give Stu credit for the Eberle pick in the 2008 draft because there were realistic alternatives.

    But, if you look at the 2009 Paajarvi/Lander draft I think you pretty much have to call it a whiff.

    10) Paajarvi (F) – 121GP 17G 42P

    14) Kulikov (D) – 198GP 13G 73P

    16) Leddy – (D) 128GP 7G 44P

    17) Rundblad (D) 30GP 1G 7P (Outscored Paajarvi by a huge margin in his last SEL season)

    24) Johansson (F) 149GP 27G 73P

    33) Ryan O’Reilly (F) 236GP 39G 107P

    35) Kyle Clifford (F) 157GP 12G 26P (tough as nails)

    55) Dmitri Orlov (D) 60GP 3G 19P (not bad for a rookie defenseman)

    60) Tomas Tatar (F) 58P in 76 AHL GP.

    Now, the above list doesn’t include Ryan Ellis, Chris Kreider, Tim Erixon, Simon Depres, Jakob Silfverberg or Brandon Pirri all of whom have huge arrows pointed in the right direction.

    Pretty difficult to conclude that the ’09 draft was a win for Stu when he left all those players on the board.

    Of course, time could change things but, at this point, it looks like a pretty bad draft for the Oilers.

    Since it’s too soon to make the call on the ’10 or ’11 drafts, I’m not sure how Stu gets overwhelming praise to credit.

  24. stevezie says:

    This Neil song is amazing. I have never heard it before.

    I agree with Woodguy on the later rounds: they’re all lottery tickets, don’t let scouts trying to justify their salaries tell you otherwise. No one consistantly turns up winners from the back rounds, because it is too hard to project what a seventeen year-old is going to be like as an adult.

    I think Tortorella’s style beats his own team up, and the Devils surprise them in five. Kings in 6. Let’s take a moment to appreciate that the Devils, yes those Devils, are the most offensively exciting team left.

    Speaking of scouting reports: I ran into the Czech and Russian hockey teams today. Most of the Russians are under six feet tall, Malkin is not. He is big. And Ugly. But fairly nice. Nedved is old and getting kind of haggard. Hemsky was flying around but no goals resulted as the Czechs lost 2-0. After the game I shook his hand and told him I loved him, or something to that effect.

  25. Lowetide says:

    Balderdash. Paajarvi stumbled with help and why they force fed Lander is a mystery to everyone. I’m certainly in agreement that the Oilers had options but Paajarvi was highly rated and the Oilers took the top player on their board.

    We’re a long way from calling Paajarvi a strikeout.

  26. stevezie says:

    DSF,

    Fully agree that Kulikov or O’Reilly would have been much better picks, but to me projecting teenagers is tricky enough that if the guy you pick turns into a player I don’t think you can call it a failure, even if a better guy goes right after him. If Paajarvi is an NHLer than the pick is still a success in my mind.

    The exception to this is if you pass on a generational talent, you are wrong.

  27. Lowetide says:

    Stevezie: So, just so I’m clear, we give zero credit to the Oilers for Gernat. Right? Lottery ticket, who cares whet they did or didn’t know it’s just a list and luck is king.

  28. spoiler says:

    If we get to use 20/20 hindsight, Paajarvi is the year I wish we had taken a defenseman. That guy would be coming ready about now. But I was happy with the pick at the time, and cosidering the lists out there, he was the right pick.

    His speed, size and reach mean he’s pretty much a lock to be come an Actual NHL Player. He can take and make passes. And sometimes his shot looks deadly (kind of like Horc in that regard, his hands are pretty good when he has time, shite when he doesn’t). Question is what slot will he find? Will he carve out a Pisani kind of role or can he be more like a JVR? He reminds me a bit of Danielle S. and I think Magnus too will be a late bloomer. I think confidence might be a bit of an issue, and time and experience will help.

    I’m not upset at the pick, but a quality Dman would’ve been nice there.

    My concern is that the Oil do little to fix their defensive issues this summer because they feel good at what they have coming through in Klefbom, Marincin and Gernat and want to keep room open. Matty alluded to that feeling in this week’s HW.

    Would they bother to go after another Dman if they draft Murray? Well they’d still probably take a run at Schultz, because he’d be cheap and comes with more offensive upside than Murray. But beyond that I’ll bet they do little to better the blue line.

    But if they don’t take Murray and take Yak, does that put a lot more pressure on finding something by UFA? And how does that imperative match up with the trio of D prospects needing room, if the Oilers feel they’re only about a year away? Quality UFAs want time and money.

  29. eidy says:

    DSF,

    I’m just glad we passed on schroeder look at all the talent at 22. I suspect that kulikov and Rundblad might have been better picks at that point. However if there was a line up to redo that draft there would be a lot of teams wanting to line up again before the oilers

  30. striatic says:

    btw, has anyone talked about what taking Murray would influence signing Justin Schultz?

    if i’m Schultz and i see the Oilers take Murray, why do i want to sign with the Oilers? hasn’t my entire reason for signing with the Oilers, playing time, just taken a big swipe from another rookie defenseman?

  31. striatic says:

    eidy,

    yeah, i don’t get this “Paajarvi do-over” thing, like the Oilers would have picked Kulikov instead when Ryan Ellis and Calvin De Haan were more likely selections. are either of those guys at a point where the Oilers would benefit for having them in the lineup?

  32. jake70 says:

    striatic:
    btw, has anyone talked about what taking Murray would influence signing Justin Schultz?

    if i’m Schultz and i see the Oilers take Murray, why do i want to sign with the Oilers? hasn’t my entire reason for signing with the Oilers, playing time, just taken a big swipe from another rookie defenseman?

    If I am Schultz and I want to play with Edmonton, I make damn sure to let them know that (however that works so noone gets in trouble) before the draft.

  33. DSF says:

    Lowetide:
    Balderdash. Paajarvi stumbled with help and why they force fed Lander is a mystery to everyone. I’m certainly in agreement that the Oilers had options but Paajarvi was highly rated and the Oilers took the top player on their board.

    We’re a long way from calling Paajarvi a strikeout.

    Surely, the measure of the draft is you take the best player available when your number is called.

    It takes time to assess to be sure but three years later we’re beginning to get an inkling.

    Paajarvi fell at the draft because some teams didn’t think he could provide offence in the NHL.

    Looks like they may have been right.

    We often see posters suggest that players like Eberle would go much higher if a re-draft were held today and they are certainly correct in that assumption.

    So, if the ’09 draft were held again today, where do you think Paajarvi would go?

  34. DSF says:

    stevezie:
    DSF,

    Fully agree that Kulikov or O’Reilly would have been much better picks, but to me projecting teenagers is tricky enough that if the guy you pick turns into a player I don’t think you can call it a failure, even if a better guy goes right after him. If Paajarvi is an NHLer than the pick is still a success in my mind.

    The exception to this is if you pass on a generational talent, you are wrong.

    I don’t know if “an NHL player” can be considered a success when you’re picking 10th overall.
    But, in looking at past drafts, there have certainly been a lot of misses at that spot.

    Agree that its tough projecting teenagers but I think Paajarvi’s lack of scoring in the SEL should have been a red flag.

    It certainly got my attention.

  35. voxwah says:

    Hey LT. Here’s a question for you. How much better right now is Ryan Murray then Gernat? Is he realistically so much better that drafting him and pushing Gernat down the depth chart would be a good idea?

    I think you have to take Nail. That would give us a great top 6. Gagner is fine as a second line C. He has proven he can produce when receiving consistent minutes with quality wingers. Plus he is learning how to win a draw finally. Hall, Ebs, Nail and Hemmer is a super strong set of wingers.

    Having a strong top 6 is going to attract any free agent d that the Oilers need. Picking Murray 1st is a bad idea.

    LA – 6
    NY – 6

    LA – 7

  36. sliderule says:

    It’s too early to tell how it will work out.

    Pitlick may still be OK as most of his draft class is still playing junior.Next year will tell the tale for him.

    The euro Slovak scout who gave them Marincin and Gernat has done good.If Gernat can pack on 20 lbs of muscle he will join the show in three years.

    The Ohl scout gave them Rieder who would at worst be a late first rounder on a redraft.

    The only big concern I have is how much picks like Musil ,Hamilton and Simpson were affected by ties to Oiler management.

  37. FPB94 says:

    Not giving credit for later round picks is stupid.

    There’s some teams who get absolute zero. (Minnesota for ex).

    Teams who take Junior 3rd and 4th liners usually get nothing out of the later rounds.

  38. striatic says:

    DSF,

    if the 2009 draft was held today, MPS still doesn’t go later than 20th.

    Glennie goes later, so we’ll start MPS at 9th overall.

    Ellis, Kassian, Kulikov, Leddy, Runblad, Kreider, Johansson, Palmeiri, O’Reilly and Clifford might rank higher which would put MPS somewhere around 15th to 20th overall in my books.

  39. Lowetide says:

    voxwah:
    Hey LT. Here’s a question for you. How much better right now is Ryan Murray then Gernat? Is he realistically so much better that drafting him and pushing Gernat down the depth chart would be a good idea?

    I think you have to take Nail. That would give us a great top 6. Gagner is fine as a second line C. He has proven he can produce when receiving consistent minutes with quality wingers. Plus he is learning how to win a draw finally. Hall, Ebs, Nail and Hemmer is a super strong set of wingers.

    Having a strong top 6 is going to attract any free agent d that the Oilers need. Picking Murray 1st is a bad idea.

    LA – 6
    NY – 6

    LA – 7

    Murray versus Gernat. The things that make Murray a top flight prospect according to what we read are defensive. since we are not able to accurately measure them, I am unable to show you the reasons some scouts highly value him.

    I do know he’s a good skater. And I also know that people are badly underestimating his offense for two reasons:

    1. He was injured so his boxcars don’t impress
    2. He was playing on a terrible team.

    RYAN MURRAY WHL EVERETT 2011-12
    NAME G A PTS
    RYAN MURRAY 46 GAMES 9 22 31 (.674)
    G GOALS GPG
    EVERETT WITH MURRAY 46 127 2.76
    EVERETT W/O MURRAY 26 58 2.23

    MARTIN GERNAT WHL EDMONTON 2011-12
    NAME G A PTS
    MARTIN GERNAT 60 GAMES 9 46 55 (.917)
    G GOALS GPG
    EDM WITH GERNAT 60 250 4.17
    EDM W.O GERNAT 12 60 5.00

    EVERETT GOALS 11-12 185
    EDMONTON GOALS 11-12 310

    Now. How would Ryan Murray’s numbers look as an Oil King?

  40. DSF says:

    striatic:
    DSF,

    if the 2009 draft was held today, MPS still doesn’t go later than 20th.

    Glennie goes later, so we’ll start MPS at 9th overall.

    Ellis, Kassian, Kulikov, Leddy, Runblad, Kreider, Johansson, Palmeiri, O’Reilly and Clifford might rank higher which would put MPS somewhere around 15th to 20th overall in my books.

    Sounds about right although there are a few players on a different development track,Craig Smith, Simon Depres, Jakob Silfverberg, Dimitri Orlov, Brandon Pirri and Kevin Connauton who may still have something to say about that.

    In any case, as of today, Paajarvi does not look like a good bet at #10 and my point was you shouldn’t be giving credit to Stu for a draft where numerous players are tracking better.

  41. Marc says:

    DSF: Sounds about right although there are a few players on a different development track,Craig Smith,Simon Depres, Jakob Silfverberg, Dimitri Orlov, Brandon Pirri and Kevin Connauton who may stillhave something to say about that.

    What are you talking about? None of these guys are stars in the NHL yet so they must be busts. MPS is tenth in his draft class in NHL scoring and you’ve told us what a shitty pick he is. These guys are all way behind him so they must be a step away from working in a gas station.

  42. Henry says:

    oilersfan:
    I have asked this question about ten times and never even drawn so much as a reply let alone an adequate answer, so here goes , for the eleventh time:

    We can all agree that two of the big blown picks in the last ten years have been Plante and Nash. So if Stu is so Magniicent, where was he when those two were picked? He was the head scout for westerrn canada. He lives in Kamloops which is a two hour drive from Salmon Arm where Nash played. Hard to argue that Nash wasn’t Stu’s pick. The evidence shows it is highly likey he was indeed Stu’s pick. Plante played in the WHL for Red Deer, again, highly likely that was Stu’s pick as the Western Canada scout. The OIlers went off the board somewhat with both him and Nash, two Western kids picked by Lowe with KP as chief scout but Stu was the Western Canada based scout. If he is so great why did he recommend those two total duds? Or at the very least not talking KP out of it? He would have likely seen both play 50 times before they were drafted.

    To make matters worse, a lot of good players were picked after them. David Perron, PK Subban, Paccioretty.

    Until someone can show he was blameless on these two blunders he remains Mediocre Bastard Stu. And anyone saying “in Stu we trust” isn’t looking at all the evidence.

    I doubt anyone here can rightfully assign blame for these 2007 picks including you. MacGregor wasn’t in charge so we can’t blame him.

    Even if they were his guys, do you want to work with a guy based on his recent good picks or his five year old possible misses?

    Maybe this is going to get me singed but i like plante. He is a very good ahl defenseman that probably can’t skate fast enough for the NHL game. He breaks the cycle well with his stick and anticipation and he hits hard in the corners. He reminds me of Souray in this way and the way he fights as well. If a guy is running around he’ll beat him up. Not fighting for fan value or for whipping the team up. A big minute guy that will unfairly punish a guy whacking at his teammates is my sort of enforcer. Plante is that sort of guy cause he is on the ice when shit happens. Maybe he won’t get his 200 NHL games and whoever can’t justify a first round pick, but he is a good hockey player not a bust.

    Don’t know anything about Nash except they spent nothing developing him and got a second rounder for his carcass.

  43. Lowetide says:

    Henry: I think Plante has developed quite a bit as a player since turning pro. That’s the tough thing about defensive defenders–there are no stats that put their effectiveness in a column. However, based on Todd Nelson’s comments and his overall quality of play (he made the mid-season All-Star team) things may be looking up.

  44. "Steve Smith" says:

    stevezie:
    This Neil song is amazing. I have never heard it before.

    As a very wise man once said,Broken Arrow is easily Neil Young’s most underrated album.”

    (Best song on the album, for my money, is Music Arcade, which might be one of Young’s thirty best songs of all time. High praise, considering he’s written more than eighteen thousand of them, four thousand of which are excellent.)

  45. Henry says:

    Lowetide,

    As much as I like stats based analysis of the game and am coming to understand and appreciate the advanced stats, defensive defenseman show their value in their teammate’s play. Harder to track by numbers but you can see it.

  46. sliderule says:

    LT

    I think those stats show that you have to be a seer to tell the difference.

    Murray a great skater and Gernat a very good skater.

    Age difference is a factor as Gernat is five months older

    Murray at this point is better positionally but Gernat has improved a whole bunch.

    Gernat is way better at finding holes and jumping into the play in the offensive zone a skill that is very hard to achieve.

    So is Murray if he is better worth a first overall?

    Oilers call.

  47. art vandelay says:

    Maggie the Macac could have picked RNH and Hall (or Seguin) so zero credit for those two.
    Eberle at 22 was very good. That Swede with 4 names at 10 doesn’t look very smart, blame whoever you want for his 0-point season.
    That leaves a bunch of question marks. Just like that past 37+/- years of Oilers drafting.
    Yah.
    Guy’s a genius.

  48. Henry says:

    Another thing in macgregor’s favour is the way amateur scouting has filed out okc. Last year had a lot of established ahl stars. This year the big contributors are prospects and guys like arcobello, Tremblay from the college heap. Fedun may fit too. They are very well coached, but the system seems to be working well enough that the oilers may need to get a double A team for themselves. Hopefully not in Stockton.

  49. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    LT

    I think those stats show that you have to be a seer to tell the difference.

    Murray a great skater and Gernat a very good skater.

    Age difference is a factor as Gernat is five months older

    Murray at this point is better positionally but Gernat has improved a whole bunch.

    Gernat is way better at finding holes and jumping into the play in the offensive zone a skill that is very hard to achieve.

    So is Murrayif he is better worth a first overall?

    Oilers call.

    Gernat scored at .917/game on a team that scored 310 goals. Murray scored .674/game on a team that scored 185 goals. Is Gernat the better offensive player?

  50. DSF says:

    Marc: What are you talking about?None of these guys are stars in the NHL yet so they must be busts. MPS is tenth in his draft class in NHL scoring and you’ve told us what a shitty pick he is.These guys are all way behind him so they must be a step away from working in a gas station.

    Of course 3 of the players who were selected before him are defensemen and I think you have to agree defensemen are at a bit of a disadvantage when it comes to scoring.

    Nevertheless, Hedman, OEL, Kulkov and Leddy have all scored at a better or equal rate in the NHL.

    I think we can also agree that Paajarvi. due to injury on the Oilers, was gifted some prime ice time in his rookie season he might otherwise not have got so let’s look at some P/G numbers from that draft class.

    Tavares – .83

    Duchene – .68

    Kane – .59

    Johansson – .49

    O’Reilly – .45

    Kadri – .37

    Kulikov – .36

    Paajarvi – .35

    Leddy – .34

    Ellis – .34

    OEL (D) .33

    Schenn .32

    Hedman (D) – .32

    Paajarvi’s scoring rate has him down with the defensemen from his draft class so, while other drafted forwards have certainly done worse, the emergence of several high scoring defensemen casts a pall on his election.

    Then you have a couple of high second round picks in O’Reilly and Clifford who both have more GP in the NHL.

  51. sliderule says:

    LT

    At the WJC and WC have you seen Murray make a play that looked like an offensive play?

    Gernat has made dozens of offensive plays in the WHL playoffs.

    I know competition level not comparable to WC but close to WJC.

    Just saying.

  52. godot10 says:

    sliderule:
    LT

    I think those stats show that you have to be a seer to tell the difference.

    Murray a great skater and Gernat a very good skater.

    Age difference is a factor as Gernat is five months older

    Murray at this point is better positionally but Gernat has improved a whole bunch.

    Gernat is way better at finding holes and jumping into the play in the offensive zone a skill that is very hard to achieve.

    So is Murrayif he is better worth a first overall?

    Oilers call.

    You need more than one defenseman. You need eight.

  53. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    LT

    At the WJC and WC have you seen Murray make a play that looked like an offensive play?

    Gernat has made dozens of offensive plays in the WHL playoffs.

    I know competition level not comparable to WC but close to WJC.

    Just saying.

    I don’t think it is reasonable to assume that Murray can’t make plays based on an extremely small sample size. The guy posted good numbers on a terrible offensive team, he must be good at something.

  54. "Steve Smith" says:

    godot10,

    You also need a reliable backup goalie. Why not pick one of those first overall?

  55. godot10 says:

    art vandelay:
    Maggie the Macac could have picked RNH and Hall (or Seguin) so zero credit for those two.
    Eberle at 22 was very good. That Swede with 4 names at 10 doesn’t look very smart, blame whoever you want for his 0-point season.
    That leaves a bunch of question marks. Just like that past 37+/- years of Oilers drafting.
    Yah.
    Guy’s a genius.

    Colin Fraser played fine for Quenneville and Sutter deep into the playoffs. Sucked for Renney.
    Belanger played find for Lemaire, Boudreau, and Tippett, Sucked for Renney.
    Hemsky has sucked for Renney.
    Brule seemed to do fine for Quinn and Tippett. Sucked for Renney.
    Cogliano played well for MacT and Carlyle. Sucked for Renney.
    Curtis Foster seems a lot more servicable for other coaches than he was for Renney.

    Rangers are doing much better with Torts as coach than Renney.

    Paajarvi is doing fine with Nelson down in OKC. Not enough goals, but still about 0.750 PPG.

  56. gd says:

    The debate between Gernat and Murray is irrelevant to me. I’m intrigued by Gernat and think with proper defensive teaching could be Stu’s greatest find, but at this point Murray is a much better bet. The question about Murray for Stu has to be does he project to be at least as good as OEL or not, because if not I don’t think we can sacrifice a talent like Yak.

    I really like PRV but he is a bit of a miss at 10 at this point, but 2009 is shaping up as a pretty mediocre draft. I feel like Stu and the development team deserve a fair bit of credit for OKC being in the final 4, considering the 1st overalls have nothing to do with that and where we were with Springfield 3 years ago. With Reider and Gernat 2011 has the potential for the Oil’s best drafts since 1979 and 1980. The only two teams I think have for sure done a better job of drafting in the last few years is Chicago and Ottawa

  57. oilersfan says:

    Well the problem with the oilers taking murray instead of yakupov based on need is that by the time Murray can be a difference maker defence may not be as much a need as secondary scoring.

    We saw it happen many times this year, shut down the kids, shut down the Oilers’ offence.

    With Petry and Smid, if the Oilers can get Klefbom and one of Teubert, Marincin, Gernat, Musil or a UFA to be top 4, well Schultz might stick around and 6-7′s are a dime a dozen.

    Top four dmen are hard to find, and they cost 4-5 million as a ufa if you can sign them. But 40 goal scorers are more rare and Kovy, Gaborik and soon to be Parise make more like 7-8 million.

    So if one of the oft mentioned young dmen don’t make it as an impact top 4 guy, sign one as it will be easier than fiunding a 40 goal scorer to create offence on a 1-1a first-second line the Oilers could roll out for 10-15 years if they take Yak..

  58. godot10 says:

    Strange that Columbus is willing to trade Rick Nash for a deal that included Del Zotto, the #4 D, but the Ranger aren’t willing to trade their #4 D in a deal for Nash.

    Sort of undermines the argument that one will be able to trade one of the stud forwards for a stud D in the future.

  59. godot10 says:

    oilersfan:
    Well the problem with the oilers taking murray instead of yakupov based on need is that by the time Murray can be a difference maker defence may not be as much a need as secondary scoring.

    We saw it happen many times this year, shut down the kids, shut down the Oilers’ offence.

    Secondary scoring is 4 above average puck moving defenseman, and 4 more average ones. If you have a lousy puck-moving defense, you wil have lousy secondary scoring. If you have a good puck-moving defense, your secondary scoring will be fine.

    A good puck moving defenseman is like an offensive zone start. A bad one is like a defensive zone start.

  60. MrSmitty says:

    Lowetide: Gernat scored at .917/game on a team that scored 310 goals. Murray scored .674/game on a team that scored 185 goals. Is Gernat the better offensive player?

    I would argue that they may be closer than you think. Perhaps the increased scoring on the Oil Kings was due to Gernat. Even though he produced a slightly less ratio of offense to Murray.

  61. Lowetide says:

    MrSmitty: I would argue that they may be closer than you think.Perhaps the increased scoring on the Oil Kings was due to Gernat.Even though he produced a slightly less ratio of offense to Murray.

    What I’m saying is that if you like Gernat’s offense, discouting Murray would seem to be a bad idea. I don’t know who the better offensive player is, but it’s a helluva lot closer than has been described above.

  62. DSF says:

    godot10: Secondary scoring is 4 above average puck moving defenseman, and 4 more average ones.If you have a lousy puck-moving defense, you wil have lousy secondary scoring.If you have a good puck-moving defense, your secondary scoring will be fine.

    A good puck moving defenseman is like an offensive zone start.A bad one is like a defensive zone start.

    And. of course, defensemen can provide the secondary scoring.

    28 defensemen scored as many or more points than Hemsky last season.

    The Oilers top scoring defenseman last season was Petry…61st among defensemen.

    Looks like a gaping hole to me.

  63. MrSmitty says:

    Lowetide: What I’m saying is that if you like Gernat’s offense, discouting Murray would seem to be a bad idea. I don’t know who the better offensive player is, but it’s a helluva lot closer than has been described above.

    Can’t argue that point. Its very difficult to to know either way. I admit I have watched Gernat play a few games this year and I have saw him good. The start he was a little too much of a gambler for my tastes but he has improved a ton and picks his spots now alot better. I think there is a player there. I have watched Murray and saw him bad I guess especially at the WJC against the russians.

  64. stevezie says:

    oilersfan:

    godot10,

    Top four dmen are hard to find, and they cost 4-5 million as a ufa if you can sign them. But 40 goal scorers are more rare and Kovy, Gaborik and soon to be Parise make more like 7-8 million.

    Laws of scarcity. I don’t doubt Murray will be good, I just don’t think he will be as good. And certainly not as quickly.

    Lowetide,

    (…Going back to my earlier comment…) I am willing to be proven wrong, but it seems to me that if picking in the back four rounds owed much to skill than certain teams would be really good at it. Now, I am opening myself up to being proven very wrong, but it looks like (at a quick, lazy glance) the amount of good draft picks in the back half of the draft are spread fairly evenly.
    I wouldn’t say the scouts deserve no credit, because they can follow handy rules of thumb like “prioritise hockey sense over size” or “when in doubt draft from the Dub” or whatever, but to me it looks like more luck than skill. Honestly, if Detroit thought Pavel Datsyuk would be that good they would have never let him fall that far. (I met Datsyuk today. I am so cool.)

    L.A spent 82 games playing possum. They finally look as good on ice as on paper.

  65. sliderule says:

    I don’t see a lot wrong with Murray

    He will probably play in NHL next year just not with oilers I hope.

    I see him as a nick Shultz type who will have a long career.Solid defender but not much offense

  66. FPB94 says:

    Man is it refreshing to see a new matchup in the West.

    Was getting damn sick of Detroit.

  67. Gerta Rauss says:

    Full marks to the Oil Kings for a WHL championship. They were the better team today. Good luck in the Mem Cup.

  68. spoiler says:

    Ship’em to Shawinigan.

  69. spoiler says:

    Loubardias has never met a sentence he could finish.

  70. LMHF#1 says:

    Strong effort by the Oil Kings. Excellent performance from the start.

    Reinhart continues to force me to question him though. Weak, unfocused effort for a guy who should be their #2.

  71. spoiler says:

    I’m curious to see where Button has Murray parked on his new list this week. He had him dropping to 12th on the April list, but put him 2nd in his mock draft. That’s a heckuva discrepancy.

    I’m inclined towards LT’s thinking–that Murray’s offense suffered somewhat due to team effect. He also only played about two thirds of the games. I don’t know if he’ll ever have enough to run an NHL PP though and that’s the guy I think we’re missing, despite our good PP record this year. And I think the defensive specialists are easier to come by, even someone as smooth as Murray. And offense more difficult to obtain.

    Is Stu willing to put his reputation on the line by not taking Yakupov? That’s a decision that will be examined under a microscope for years to come. It’s gonna take some massive stones to risk the chance that Murray will be better.

    Ideally they can snag Yak and Schultz. Sign a D. Jones or see if they something like JVR or Voracek shakes loose from Philly in their hunt for Suter.

  72. bsmart says:

    Lowetide,

    I wanted MBS to draft Rattie in round 2 last year over Musil. I like Musil for team need but this is anoter case of drafting the inferior player instead of a player with better arrows. Would you agree?

  73. Magnus says:

    godot10: Secondary scoring is 4 above average puck moving defenseman, and 4 more average ones.If you have a lousy puck-moving defense, you wil have lousy secondary scoring.If you have a good puck-moving defense, your secondary scoring will be fine.

    A good puck moving defenseman is like an offensive zone start.A bad one is like a defensive zone start.

    I don’t agree that this is the case. Having good puck movers might get you some more time in the offensive zone, but unless you have talented forwards, that doesn’t necessarily mean more offense. A good example of this would be the 90-91 Winnipeg Jets who had an elite offensive defenceman in Phil Housley, as well as good puck movers in Olausson, Numminen and for a short while, Dave Ellet. Yet despite all the offensive potential from the back end, they did squat offensively because they didn’t have the talent up front.
    If you’re still counting on Horcoff, Jones, Belanger, Eager and Petrell to provide secondary scoring, its not going to improve much, no matter how often you get them the puck. The real source of secondary scoring is going to have to come from players like Smyth, Gagner and Hemsky, and at this point I don’t have a lot of faith in any of them taking a big leap forward offensively. Thus, as of right now I think a potential top line winger is going to help the offense more than a potential top 3 defenceman.

    Secondly, I don’t entirely agree with the train of thought that a talented player on a poor team will instantly have their numbers increase if they were to play on a more talented team. Sometimes that does happen, sometimes not. There are benefits and negatives to being a top player on a poor team. Such players often benefit from more PP time, and more minutes played than they would receive on a more talented team.

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