It’s that time of year, or close, and since we are within 10 days of having real closure on the RFA’s, I think we can begin the process of slotting the roster and chances of being in Edmonton opening night. There are two posts you’ll see through August and September. “Riesen to Believe” will appear when we get camp invite lists, and today’s is three parts: Certain Oilers, Uncertain Oilers and Distant Bells. Here we go.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: Can Oilers’ Darnell Nurse live up to new contract?
- DNB: With Oilers roster intact, stars readying for next step
- Lowetide: 10 unsigned free agents who could help the Oilers in 2022-23
- Lowetide: 5 times Oilers management mishandled Jesse Puljujarvi
- Lowetide: What are reasonable expectations for the Oilers in 2022-23?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Evan Bouchard is on the edge of stardom
- Lowetide: How many goals will Oilers winger Evander Kane score next season?
- Lowetide: Four Oilers defence prospects applying for one job. Who wins?
- DNB: Oilers depth chart: Where did they improve and where can they make more moves?
- Lowetide: Skinner’s rise shows importance of homegrown goalies
- DNB: Oilers’ Kane, Campbell signings are calculated risks in push for Stanley Cup
- Lowetide: For Oilers forward Dylan Holloway, the future may come early
- DNB: Oilers’ Brad Holland on AGM role, analytics, working with his dad: Q&A
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
- DNB: First-round pick Reid Schaefer can bring ‘big-boy hockey’ to his hometown team
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers prospect pipeline needs a post-draft boost
- Lowetide: 5 AHL players who can help the Oilers next season
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers offseason what I think and what I know 1.0
- Lowetide: Remember Oilers’ biggest summer ever? It needs to happen again
- DNB: How Oilers’ draft pick Kelly Buchberger became the long shot who delivered
- DNB: What we’re hearing on Edmonton Oilers’ Puljujarvi, more
- Lowetide: Can Oilers’ Xavier Bourgault make the 2022-23 opening night roster?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ pivotal summer and what fans want to see from Ken Holland
- Lowetide: What Oilers assets should Ken Holland trade this summer?
- DNB: What if Edmonton Oilers trade Jesse Puljujarvi? The case for and against
CERTAIN OILERS
There are several players who could be on this list, but with the cap uncertainty I can’t include five otherwise certain names. The 12 names you see here are absolute locks barring injury, and represent the center of the roster cluster. This is a great 12-man roster.
UNCERTAIN OILERS
Warren Foegele, Ryan McLeod, Kailer Yamamoto, Jesse Puljujarvi and Tyson Barrie should be on the ‘certain’ list. However, one of them is likely to be traded in the coming days, and until we know, they’re all on the outside looking in. Philip Broberg is also likely, but I think it best to hold him back until we see what Samorukov looks like in camp, and what possible additions Holland makes over the summer. I also kept Stuart Skinner back just in case Calvin Pickard makes the backup job a contest.
THE DISTANT BELLS
It’s tempting to say none of these players will dress for an NHL game but time and again over the years the club has a run on something, or a player emerges during the year. I think all three centers, Xavier Bourgault and Ryan Fanti would be the best bets for an NHL cup of coffee.
WHO IS GOING?
It’s such an interesting dilemma for the Oilers. We could spend hours discussing the best trade option available (I think it’s Foegele) but in truth it’s probably more valuable to look at the man making the decision.
Ken Holland is a veteran general manager, a group who universally value their own procurement pieces over what came before them. So, names like Warren Foegele and Tyson Barrie, whose arrival came during Holland’s time in office, may be protected because of it. Kailer Yamamoto, Jesse Puljujarvi and even Ryan McLeod are possibly more vulnerable.
The other side of the coin is Holland’s tell. He has zero fear of older players. One of the older players currently available is Phil Kessel. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to create a scenario where Holland trades Jesse Puljujarvi is dealt for an asset with zero dollars attached, and then signs Kessel.
What is stopping Holland from making that trade? Two things. Yamamoto and McLeod have to be signed, and we’ll see that happen in the next few days.
The other item stopping Holland from dealing Puljujarvi is possible return. The general manager took significant heat over the Duncan Keith trade, and people still remember the Andreas Athanasiou deal. Trading Puljujarvi for a fourth-round pick will send echoes down the canyon. Is it worth trading the player if the backlash is so strong it becomes a major story over the summer and into season ticket buying season? It’s a consideration. We wait.
I get paid over $85 per hour working from home with 2 kids at home. I never thought I’d be able to do it but my best friend earns over 10k a month doing this and she convinced me to try. The potential with this is endless.
Here’s what I’ve been doing… http://www.Jobs234.com
This is going to be rambly, but it a nutshell, I am a JP supporter but I also agree that under the right circumstances, I am OK with him not being on the team 2022-2023. I also agree that Foegele is the one I would try to trade, but his value/contract situation is not dissimilar to Kassian’s.
Why do I say this? Because this has been a bit of an opportune summer for clubs to squeeze UFA middle-bottom 6 players and 2nd-3rd pairing D because of cap, and supply/demand. We don’t get that luxury with RFAs filing for arbitration, such as with Yamamoto or Jesse.
For example, if you can’t find a trade partner for Foegele, and you signed Heinen at 1 M and traded JP for a 3rd round draft pick, can you honestly tell me that wouldn’t have been worth consideration? While as LT says, no one likes seeing a homegrown talent leave for pennies on the dollar, that is a bit of 2D chess when a GM should be playing 3D.
Because what you are assessing here is not the optics of giving JP away (which it is), but what is more valuable:
JP (with 1 addtl year RFA) vs. Heinen + 2M cap savings (sign Yamamoto) + 2023 draft pick? I would argue the latter would give us more depth.
You could replay this with your pick of inexpensive winger to pluck from UFA, and your pick of what to do with the ~2M cap space saved (e.g. trade for Bear, trade Barrie and use the 4.5 + 2 mil savings to go after Klingberg), but 2M in cap space right now is gold.
I know it’s hard to let go of players we like, and Jesse is a player I have rooted for from the beginning. However, if he is the only tradeable forward of the Jesse-Yam-Foegele group, or he has expressed desire to leave, then I can understand the rationale in looking for a trade partner. Doesn’t mean I think we would win the actual trade. Problem is that UFA crop has dwindled.
Good post. 3D chess indeed!
The narrative that’ s being framed is Holland has to win a Puljujarvi trade otherwise why bother? The reality is the market determines Puljujarvi’s value not some arbitrary fan benchmark. If Holland returns market value for JP and efficiently reallocates his cap to an asset who matches or betters his production, that’s a net positive. The trade return in isolation is moot.
Of course you’ll never convince the herd of Bison supporters who will bleat until the cows come home if it does happen.
Bad mouthing the people that support keep JP is at best juvenile!
Fact – if you trade JP you now need a minimum of 1 top six right wing, assuming Yamamoto is signed.
Fact – JP is a known quantity that can play top six right wing although somewhat short point wise but the lines he has played on have better results with him than without him.
My question is who do you propose the Oilers get as a better alternative to JP at the same cap hit? Is there a trade fairy you can contact that will magically get you said player? I am a proponent of keeping JP unless the team can come up with another player for top six right wing that makes the team better that fits within the cap structure!
We can talk all we want about JP, and I’m a fan of him and find I also stick up for him more than I should with other fans As well, I have many friends who are huge oilers fans who are are disappointed in him because he did nothing again in the playoff .. nothing .. and against Winnipeg the year before he did nothing.. so this year they were expecting a lot more than the wonderful grin and the deer in the headlights look that he seems to have in the playoffs. Hey.. we all seen it, even if we convince ourselves otherwise .. and I would be surprised if the oilers management wasn’t expecting much more .. the management knows, same as we do, that the oilers have enough skill, scoring, defence, to make the playoffs without Jessie.. what they are looking at is who will now help them get over the hump in the playoffs so that they can push farther to the end? And u can talk all u want about Jessie and his stats in the regular season, but it doesn’t matter anymore if he can’t perform in the playoffs .. do the oilers risk another year of Jessie doing nothing in the playoffs ? Or do they trade him for cap space and someone who will have the audacity to adapt to game specific coaching adjustments, have the drive to perform and make a difference in the playoffs like Hyman, Kane, Yamo, Nugie with the big minutes and penalty kill and assists, or is he simply replaceable in the playoffs with a far cheaper player on right wing? I would like to give him one more year and give him the time to get his confidence up, but hey .. the window for the oilers is open. He may not be able to grab his opportunity and he may miss his chance to be a contributor at this historic time in the Edmonton oilers story .
The history of the NHL is littered with players that didn’t produce near expected levels in the playoffs early in their career and, well, ended up being great playoff performers and Stanley cup champions.
Pavel Datsyuk, one of many.
I would also note that, last season, Connor McDavid had 105 points in 56 games in the regular season and 4 points in 4 games in the playoffs.
You don’t need to be a point a game player in the playoffs to be effective. How about a big hit are continuously wearing down the opposition D with hotly contested board battles. How about drawing penalties at crucial times are blocking shots with all parts of your body when it counts. Oiler fans aren’t ignorant, win or lose they know when someones giving there all. They also know when a player is in over his head and they definitely know when a player is just going through the motions.
They also know that a “meh” playoff performance early in the career, while injured, does not define the future.
Feel free to want Malone or Archibald in the lineup over Puljujarvi because they threw hits (at least Malone didn’t have a negative effect with most of his truculence taking himself out of position running around).
Hyman, Yam/JP, Kane, and RNH are 4 capable wingers and will be paid accordingly. McLeod 3rd line C, especially if it saves money that can be reallocated to upgrade the D, I can stomach.
Of course, the reality of the trade would likely be in the middle.
Jesse Puljujarvi, the player, likely has a value of greater than the Oilers would receive in a trade but the trade value is reduced, not because the player isn’t market for his cap hit but because of where we are in the off-season and how little unspent cap space is out there and the team’s cap situation and 100% need to move cap out for compliance.
Oliver Bjorkstrand at 4 X $5.4MM is worth more than a 3rd and a 4th pick, much more, but that was the return given the Jackets cap situation at the time and the general lack of unspent cap space in the market
Very insightful post.
What has transpired this offseason more than I can ever remember is multiple teams decided not to tender qualifying offers and just walking away to avoid arbitration.
That raises two questions:
What would JPs value be if he were a UFA? I would think, given the discounted contracts we’ve seen non-elite wingers agreeing to, it would not be anywhere close to his Oiler contract.
Then, how better could the Oilers spend that cap allotment given market conditions?
If he can be traded for an asset, even a modest one (and by all accounts he can), then his value is clearly at least equal to his current AAV.
Say it is a mid second round pick.
Hardly worth his cap hit when the majority of teams are at the cap and others can add unsigned UFAs for a fraction of the price and not give up that pick.
You seem to be saying he can’t be traded for a draft pick, when multiple reports indicate that’s not true.
“You seem to be saying he can’t be traded for a draft pick, when multiple reports indicate that’s not true.”
Reports? Or rumors?
I like JP, but who really knows what is going on behind the scenes?
I mean, it’s been reported in print and on air by multiple hockey reporters and other sources.
In a sense all reporting on earth ever is rumor. You can deny it all as just, or pick and choose. This one appears to be much more than just speculation or opinion though.
I am curious who the teams are that you think are lining up to swap a pick for him at this stage in the offseason.
You don’t know what the majority of teams are thinking.
Kasperi Kapanen says Jesse Puljujarvi is great value given his performance and stage of career. Same with Mathieu Joseph.
Those examples you gave are RFAs
Heinen, Donato, Strome, Namestnikov, Kulak, Domi, Kubalik, Kase, Johansson were UFAs that likely took less than they would have earned in a different summer. And there are several more value UFAs remaining unsigned that will likely to do the same, maybe moreso.
Again, I didn’t say make the trade, but if you do, be darn sure the new cap space is used intelligently, and maybe it will work out alright
“I would think, given the discounted contracts we’ve seen non-elite wingers agreeing to, it would not be anywhere close to his Oiler contract.”
Of course you would. Yaaaaaawn.
If you take out Heinen, what contracts are you talking about?? Joseph just signed for $2.95, one year older and less points then Jesse. Kakko got 2 years at $2.1 at 21, less points but has draft pedigree. Donato, $1.2 but 2 years older and less points.
The funny thing is, last week or so, HH was saying people are delusional if they think JP’s contract would be anything lower than $3 million.
Now, he thinks other teams wouldn’t want him for anything close to $3 million.
And people say HH brings value to this blog…
Funny thing is, I was right on both accounts.
HH – twisting with the wind of whatever narrative suits your fancy from week to week is nothing to be proud of.
Your two statements contradict one another, so how could you be right about both? That doesn’t make an ounce of sense hah! If anything you’re wrong about both…
Feel like I’m taking crazy pills!
No, you really weren’t.
Did you forget that you were also going on and on about how the arbitrator would be in favour of JP receiving more than $3 million because of his performance and he would deserve it?
Negative value?
Tough for Holland to be trading Foegele in this environment where so many teams are trying to SHED cap and players like Heinen, Janmark and Donato are signing for what they are signing for. As UFA’s
I don’t think they’ll be many takers for Foegs unless the Oilers add a sweetener. Seems they’re keen on keeping Barrie and Yams, which leaves Jesse as the most likely candidate to be traded.
I hope I’m wrong.
It was out there that Brian Wiseman was joining the Isles staff (in an enervated role for the one he had as an Oiler coach) but it appears he is no longer joining the Isles and John McLean is:
https://twitter.com/jamesnicholsnyi/status/1552736083825332225?s=21&t=_mlu-CHPd3oaT8BCWQ3srQ
I don’t think enervated means what you think it means.
In a way the Uncertain List reminds me of earlier MacT Oilers lineups – which consisted of tweeners and you-hope-beyond-hope-they will succeed types.
Having McDavid and his friends is whole other NHL universe.
A hockey blog with John Irving literary reference. Doesn’t get better than that.
You are kinda on my turf🤔
Drama!
It’s like Ryan Reynolds turned a corner and bumped into Ryan Gosling…It was confusing for a second.
Not confusing at all.
Reynolds tries to hard. Gosling just is.
Reminds me of when Original Pouzar joined the forum when Pouzar was already around.
Read “The World According to Garp” perhaps 40 yrs ago…..awesome book!
Man, where is the best place around Edmonton to cool off for the long weekend. For just a couple of hours or maybe a day or two.
Ideas?
Try one of these.
https://www.edmonton.ca/activities_parks_recreation/spray-parks-water-play
If you’ve only got time for a day trip, I’m partial to Sylvan Lake. The water is refreshing and the barn fights are top drawer.
Sylvan lake is great. Or go North, and hit up lesser slave lake.
LOVE the heat – bring it on, every day please.
Pembina river is great if it’s just a day trip. You don’t even need to do the float, just find a shallow spot and chill
Good call. Pembina is great. I recommend the float.
Swedish Touch.
Go shopping at walmart and lay on the swing in the seasonal section and have a nap
I’m glad you mentioned the Kessel hypothetical LT because the factor that’s almost always glossed over with the pre-criticism of a Puljujarvi trade is the potential return is almost solely dictated by the marketplace. If the other 31 teams are not interested in buying Jesse stock for anything other than a low cost flyer, that should be a red flag for Holland not an indicator that he’s the smartest man in the room who should immediately discount what that demand or lack thereof says about the future prospects for the player.
If no GM is interested in parting with anything other than a 2nd round pick, that’s Jesse’s market value. If Holland wishes to trade him for that draft capital and can replace or exceed his production with a comparable or lower cap expenditure, then he should do it. Optimal expenditure of cap resources. That’s the job description. Why folks would argue there’s no way Jesse’s production/expenditure ratio can’t be improved without knowing the players being made available isn’t logic. It’s just someone holding onto their favourite baseball card insisting there’s no possible way that its value may have flatlined while the market is clearly saying otherwise.
Certainly this works both ways. There were pundits who insisted Larsson+Lucic was the way the Taylor Hall trade should be appraised. History has not been kind to these folks as both players in total couldn’t match the production Chiarelli sent out the door with my favourite Windsor Spitfire. But the theory holds up. If you can better the production you send out for the same or lower cost coming back, it shouldn’t matter whether that happens in one trade or a trade and follow up signing.
Yup. ‘Cap efficiency’ is the addition to ‘get good players, keep good players’ that is the formula for winning in the NHL.
Absolutely. People act like there’s no downside to keeping Puljujarvi if he’s on a cap hit that can be absorbed. But that’s only true if his production trends upward. This is a key part of Holland’s mandate to win a Cup. You have to assemble as many players as you can trending upward towards an optimal production vs expense ratio.
If Puljujarvi’s production stagnates or trends downward, there’s an opportunity cost paid by the GM in not accurately forecasting that trend. Kane and Hyman have both been helpful in this regard because their production alongside McDavid reveals what Puljujarvi was not producing. I wish JP’s agent would appreciate this. The team already took a hit gifting him the best icetime available and Jesse didn’t deliver anything close to the ROI that Kane did. Does Holland get recompense for that?
I mean, JP is getting paid significantly less than both Hyman and Kane.
If JP’s production stagnates I think 3 million is fair value for a 12-15 goal, 30-35 point winger, no?
The Oil are trying to win the Cup not run in place. The question isn’t whether the JP contract/production returns have value. The question is are they reasonably forecasted as trending up and/or is there better returns available on the open market.
Ken can’t wait until the stock bottoms out. That’s asset mgmt 101. There’s a strong argument to be made that the McDavid mins have primed Jesse for a pump and dump and the currents trade returns however meagre represent the most value Puli will command on the open market. If he dies on the third line vine next season, he could easily bolt for greener bison pastures in Finland in a year’s time. Then you lose him for nothing while stealing another year from a replacement player who could be trending upwards.
He scored a pro-rated 38 points in 20-21, and a pro-rated 45 points this past season.
I don’t think he’ll end up back in Finland (and I don’t mind paying him$3M), but it is sobering to consider what his boxcars might look like if he does end up playing mostly 3rd line.
I don’t think we should be expecting 45 points in that role.
No.
Seattle just signed Ryan Donato for $1 million.
16G. 31P and he can also play centre.
Blake Coleman signed last year for 4.9 million and he has never scored 40 points (pro-rated, he averages 34 points a season).
Artturi Lehkonen just signed for 4.5 million x infinity and he had a career year last season with a whopping 38 points (pro-rated, he averages 31 points a season).
Look I can cherry-pick single players too!
I would wager that the league average cap hit for 35ish-point wingers is around 3 million.
CapFriendly would agree if you are looking at RFA’s.
What do Lehkonen and Coleman have in common that JP does not?
BTW, after leaving the sad sack Habs Lehkonen scored 14 goals and 23 points in 36 games with Colorado.
That pro-rates to 32 goals and 52 points over an 82 game season.
Players at the beginning of free agency are very expensive. Players a month into free agency are very cheap. A few good GMs with cap room are going to get some good players for cheap.
Janmark was probably a good example of that. He’s ranged between 25-40 points per prorated 82-game season. That’s not much less than Puljujarvi (albeit Janmark has less upside). We got Janmark for, what, a little over $1M?
Why would he make 3 times less than a 14 goal scorer?
Because the market for non-elite wingers has cratered.
Not if he can’t make a positive contribution in the playoffs .. we have enough good players to make it to the playoffs .. it’s getting the last pieces to push to the cup that counts now .. if Jessie can’t do that his regular season ok performance doesn’t mean much.
This entire comment is also applicable (maybe more applicable) to the Nurse extension, right?
Your definition of “production” is wrong.
Puljujarvi is an unconventional productive player, like Dustin Penner.
A team, a GM, a coach, the players, have to decide whether they are going to embrace the player’s singular nature or resist it.
The GM should proceed based on that chocie.
They only have to decide now, if there are other players for less money that will help them enough during regular season and then help them in the playoffs .
I would posit that Puljujarvi provided $3MM worth of value last season and I would be surprised if he provided less this season.
Value is more than just points, even when playing top 6 at evens.
Not to mention that, for a third of the season, prior to illness and injury, he was providing value at an apx $5MM rate (in my opinion) – actually, even higher you extrapolate through 82 games.
Now, of course, consistency, ability to play through adversity and perform, etc. are part of the value equation – those weren’t there last season but that’s not to say they don’t come with age, experience, development and maturity – as we’ve seen with others.
JP has many positive touches with the puck that didn’t amount to points. I say keep him. Covid and an injury hampered his play. To what extent we don’t know.
This is true. I wonder if Woodie can help him get and keep his confidence and if his new skills coach can help a bit with the areas that seem lacking on the finishing end of things.. we may be at a point where Jesse understands the coaching and what’s needed to go to the next level .. if this is the case then we won’t get the benefit of his finished product and another team will.. I for one, as a fan sure enjoyed watching him for the first part of the season before his sickness and injury. And not many argue that the stats didn’t match what we saw that first half .. until Kenny makes a move that helps the cap, I have a feeling that I’m going to be talking and reading about Jessie for a while .
I would say get and keep cost efficient players supplants the old mantra.
If you want to stay good in the cap world you have to give up good players who no longer fit in your cap structure.
You need high skill guys to win in this league.
They are rarely cost efficient in the usual manner of statistical analysis but you need them because you can only have 5 skaters on the ice at the same time and the high end guy is going to kill you if you don’t have an answer to shut him down.
You see that in how the cap is being spent by the GM’s with the middle and low end getting squeezed.
Holland and his management team of coaches and pro scouts should know JP better than any other NHL management team. If they don’t they are incompetent! The decision to move JP is value in for value out! For the first time in many years I believe in Oiler management, Holland and his team!
Cap efficiency from season to season is a worthwhile goal … but so is draft and develop. I’d rather pay Jesse a little more now and watch him reach his potential in an Oilers jersey, then cut him loose and sign a UFA for 1 year who has no ties to the organization.
Sign Yamo and McLeod, and find a way to get someone to take Foegele off our hands. If these kids develop to the point where we can no longer afford to keep them all … then that’s a good problem to have.
Even with the return on the Tkachuk trade, The Athletic has the flames as the team who’s Stanley cup odds have decreased the most since late June.
That’s realistic as Gaudreau + Thachuk > Huberdeau + Weeger. Also the main consideration is that Calgary was almost injury free last year plus a good chunk of their team had career years. That’s not likely to repeat.
This is very misleading.
While indeed Calgary has dropped a little, their current odds of winning a cup are not that significantly worse than other Pacific teams:
VGK 6.67%
EDM 5.88%
CAL 4.35%
LAK 2.78%
VCR 1.96%
ANA 0.99%
SJS 0.66%
SEA 0.66%
These number represent betting action…not team quality.
For example…Seattle’s odds actually dropped from 0.79% to 0.66% in the offseason despite significant improvement to their lineup.
Shane Wright (expected to play in the NHL)
Matty Beniers (for a full season)
Oliver Bjorkstrand
Andre Burakovsky
Justin Schultz
With 4 new top 6 forwards and a decent RHD added Seattle has obviously upgraded its roster by a large margin.
Betting odds, and chances of success, remain, and always have been, two distinct concepts.
Pretty much.
Yet your posts confuse the two as it serves your idiom.
But once again it is you who is misleading because you respond to something he did not say. Geez you are ridiculous. Just a total waste of time.
says the poster boy for “misleading”
We all know the key to success is to break in multiple rookies at the same time
Beniers scored at almost a PPG in the last 10 games of the season,
He’s ready.
Before the draft, scouts were convinced Shane Wright is too.
It’s not misleading, you’re the only one misleading. You’ve never been in more need of therapy.
When you lose 2/3 of one of the best lines in hockey you’re gonna drop
Calgary had a cinderella season last year and would have undoubtedly gotten worse this year through regression.
The fact that they also downgraded the roster is icing on the cake.
The midsummer betting odds are skewed and based on pretty low action / sample size.
Oilers won the Pacific this year and will be the favourites to win the Pacific again, since they’ve improved. LAK and VGK should be competitive and Ana and Seattle will have some good nights as such young teams do (and the Oilers have done for many a year).
Covid hit the flame team all at once while other teams were pickeed apart by the week
I think Calgary is going to be competitive in the early part of next season … BUT if Huberdeau and Weegar are still unsigned by the end of Christmas, the calls from their media and fanbase to trade them will be deafening.
There really are only 4 reasonable options that Holland can do at this point to stay under the cap:
1- trade Foegele (best option, worst return, might even need sweetener)
2- trade JP (bad option, bad return)
3- trade Yamamoto (worse option, but possibly better return)
4- trade Barrie (worst option, but likely the best return)
what would you decide?
#1 even if it costs a sweetener. Holloway can step in for Foegele and off the team goes to the WCF again! GOG
My proposal is not possible but I would trade Foegele for a 3RD and Barrie for a 2RW while trying to shave some off the cap. I like both guys but the team has evolved to the point where they are not cap efficient.
That said trades to create cap savings and bring back useful players look to me to be pretty much impossible this summer.
well if we are just talking cap dump then:
First I find out the truth around Jesse and if he is a disruption then easy decision
Next would be trade from position of strength so Foegele moves on
The best scenario is to gain a useful player back and what assets the other team is looking for would determine the move.
If it was Necas probably 2 players need moved. One for incoming player and one for cap space. But if we landed a #1RW then its worth it.
can on of these names plus a second rounder get us a young out of favor but cost controlled player? Who might be out of favor – Wahlstrom?
I would say trade Foegele, although I like Foegle as a hard working, guy who takes the body a little and plays North South. I think I read on here that he did better under Woodie, yet we seen him sit some games in the playoffs.. new coaches and teams can effect players, so I wonder if he would be improved defensively as far as his number go on his second year? It’s a tough decision for sure .. and his friends with Conner, we see him train with Conner in TO as well as golfing with Conner and, Hyman and Nurse at Zachary’s charity tourney.. so that probably shouldn’t make a difference, but does it maybe ? What a summer it’s been so far, would be nice to keep ‘em all lol
Interesting Godot comparison the other day.
Kassian vs Virtanen
You know, Virtanen is big at about 230lbs, very fast skater, tough, and can contribute if he gets his head on straight. I do think Virtanen gets another chance and produces for a few years before following similar path to Kassians decline.
If we are looking at lineup deficiencies, we are still not strong on the forth line. I would also recognize that the Oilers no longer have the dog’s breakfast roster as I just read above from 15/16, and they don’t have a need for another second chance player. Hmm, though a couple have worked out very well.
I loved Kassian by the way, shame to see him go, but his game left before he did.
Id prefer Holland focus on who he wants to get and start from there. Is that Necas, an extremely fast right shooting wing/center?
What would be the ask?
This is dangerously close to ‘compelting’. 😉
Now we’re friggin’ talking! I like the way you think!
(not the Necas part, the start with who you WANT part)
Yup, I can see this. I’d prefer to swap the word “Warren Foegele” for “Jesse Puljujarvi” and go from there….
2nd breakfast calls.
Peace Out.
Passes baton to OP.
I am heartened that you have Brad Malone as a distant bell. I would be surprised if he didn’t play NHL games this year as its clear that Woody trusts his old AHL captain.
I would hope that Malone is a deep depth injury cover, like 15F/16F at best, and I would have the likes of Benson, Shore, Griffith, maybe even Bourgault, etc., ahead of him) but I think the coach likely has him higher.
In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s on the opening night roster – I would like it but I can see it. His best value to the org is the captain of the Condors and his work helping and mentoring the “real prospects”, right?
In Hollands eyes, Malone is still a youngster right?
Personally, until Benson can beat the shovel girls around the rink, Id much rather have Malone. And seriously I like what he brought last year when they needed a boost.
Malone brought physicality which was much needed at the time. He also has some glaring opportunities to score more than the one goal in 8 games that he appeared in.
Yup, he brought physicality, in the same way Archie and Kass did – he also was on the ice for the highest rate of goals against among forwards – as he always is when he gets a few NHL shifts.
He is not the reliable defensive forward at the NHL level – this is why he hasn’t been playing in the NHL during his “prime years”.
His best value to this org is as the captain of the Condors.
Archie and Kassian were good foot soldiers that are still in the league. I believe the last concussion or injury effected Kassian’s style of play and outlook on life after Hockey, having Children has that effect. Malone deserves a bone once in awhile for his faithfulness to Woody and the organization. I actually enjoyed watching Malone hammering on the opposition as well as sticking up for his teammates.
Yes, Archie and Kass had their good moments and stretches as Oilers over the years – I would posit that there was really none of that this past season.
In any event, I’m not sure what that has to do with Malone and how he can perform in the NHL which, as we’ve seen every time he’s received a chance since he’s been in the org, is not well.
He seems to have cut out the bad penalties that led to goals years ago but that’s really been replaced by goals against.
I want NHL players in the lineup as opposed to good soldiers getting a bone, personally.
If Malone attributes besides being the Captain in Bakersfield is mentoring the Holloway’s, Savoies and Lavoie’s coming through the pipeline on being a Pro hockey player and what it entails is gold. For me and obviously the organization sees this as well worth the salary he’s receiving. I see him inserted for a half-dozen games maybe more with injuries. I’m not sure how many games you need in a career or consecutive seasons to cash in on a lifetime pension.
it used to be 400 games for a pension, not sure if that is still true or if it’s changed
or wait a second, is there still pensions in the nhl? they make so much more now
How much do you clear in your first 5-6 years if your good but not a star player after taxes, agent fees, union dues, rent in expensive cities, nice wheels and most importantly fun loving females. I wonder what Stan Weir’s pension is monthly?
Yup – his greatest attributes to the org is indeed that – his work as captain of the Condors and mentoring and helping the younger players in the AHL – I hope he continues to do so.
I wouldn’t be shocked if he got a few NHL game. Given all his previous results as an Oiler, I hope they can find more apt NHL depth players.
It didn’t take you long to come around on Malone getting some ice time with the big club.
Nope, I’m not on board with it, unless we are talking about 4 forwards being out. I acknowledge that the head coach may think otherwise.
to be clear, Benson would not actually be “beating” the shovel girls. He would need to be out skating them.
thanks for that important clarification! lol
maybe he prefers the view from back there
Presuming no major add to the defensive group, I think Broberg is very close to a lock and a “certain Oiler” – this is based off of depth chart, need and the verbal of Ken Holland since the end of the season.
I’m not sure the battle is Broberg vs. others for 6D as much as its Samorukov vs. Niemelainen vs. Deharnais vs. Koekkoek for 7D and I see a clear path for Samorukov as that guy – on merit (not due to waivers eligibility).
With that said, I can’t disagree that Broberg “isn’t certain” and Sammy could earn the opening night lineup spot. That would be heartening vis-a-vis Sammy and disappointing vis-a-vis Broberg.
I should also note that I would be surprised, if they do have a full 23 man roster, if they have both Koekkoek and Sammy for 8D and only one extra forward.
Nurse will likely appear to be an overpayment, but it’s not hard to find similar deals all over the league.
Try winning anything without him in the lineup.
They probably could have got him around 6X$7M or so the last contract he signed, but chose another shorter deal instead. The guy bet on himself more than once and won every time. I begrudge him nothing.
In the title track, the protagonists had good intentions that delivered both comic and gruesome consequences.
The kind of stuff that makes you want to scream.
Yo Da Le He Hoo!
I guess technically speaking that’s ^ a yodel…
So lets go with ….RICOLA!
We often talk about keeping JP as being in the best interests of the team; But in the cold hard light of day, what’s in the best interests of the player??
#TheDreamOfTheBlueTurtles
Sure… it will Sting a little.
Randle gets esoteric Alert.
“We eat the young, we drink their time
Make OUR dreams come true
And hungry eyes are passing by
On streets we call the zoo”
Extreme esoteric alert
I Know Why The Caged Bird Sings.
(one bird is able to live in nature as it pleases, while a different caged bird suffers in captivity. The latter bird sings both to cope with its circumstances and to express its own longing for freedom.)
It’s my belief that at the heart of most great GM’s/Coaches there lies the perspective of a father. It may form only a small portion of the equation, but it is there.
Seems to me that the main issue with JP is defining his role.
The NHL is the toughest league in the world and players that have succeeded at lower levels often have to adjust their play or become a specialist in order to have success.
His best ability is to is being a defensive shutdown player (currently) who isn’t a great passer or finisher.
He feels he is a top scorer and either needs to start putting up numbers or accept the defensive role and work towards improving his offence at the NHL.
He’s not the first Oiler to have to come to this realization and others have had to move on to other teams before embracing their niche.
there is nothing wrong with being a $3 Million / Year shutdown player who has some scoring ability and if Jesse ever decides to accept this he will be in a better place for it.
I don’t know how to evaluate a player whose argument is essentially that he is a magic bean who makes numbers look better when he is on the ice but is often in the wrong place or going offside to the point where he is driving his line mates crazy, judging by some of the conversations we have seen on the bench with his line mates.
I’m more worried about his drama and how it affects the dynamics of the team more then worrying about potentially losing a star player if he ever metamorphs into a dynamo.
Everything above and below is in response to…”Free the Bears”
or some loose association thereof…
I’ve heard this trade mentioned a few times lately, I’m not sure if it’s doable by ether team, but it has some intrigue to it.
A trade involving Kakko for Puljujarvi straight up.
I’m not sure the Rangers do this right now, I think there might be some smoke here.
*** I don’t have a link to share because the talk has been coming from NHL network on Sirius xm****
NYR just signed Kakko this morning for two years at $2.1M per. Not sure if that makes a trade more or less likely.
The Oilers signed Puljujarvi but here we are talking about him being involved as a player of interest.
I think it’s easier to trade a signed player, so I don’t/wouldn’t look to much into a signed or recently signed player.
Aren’t the rangers right up against the cap? Might be difficult to pull off that one for them.
That’s in fact a trade that they could win. Kakko is three years younger, makes less money, and is signed for two years.
Exactly why the Rangers wouldn’t do it.
For all the talk about trades around the league they look very difficult to pull off with cap space disappearing faster than a Medicine Hat puddle in the middle of July. 😉
Right! Like you’re an authority on anything hockey! I think your bridge is calling!
Finally pre-ordered your book today LT. Looking forward to reading it!
Trading JP for a 4th seems very counter intuitive, even for a guy like Holland. Is he worth a 1st? I can’t see any GM in the league offering that based on his play or how things have been played out by everyone involved.
I would be pleased as punch if they were to get two 2nd rounders for him. Preferably one in next year’s draft where its expected to be quite deep.
I like to look at which teams had rookies “make it” to get an idea about the future. (Of course they can still fail after their rookie seasons).
Its such a big deal when a young player successfully assimilates himself into the roster. ie Ryan Macleod.
Anyways here are rookies (according to nhl.Com) age23 and under who played in 50+ games last season in the Pacific division:
Ducks
Drysdale D
Zegras F
Benoit D
Flames
0
Oilers
MacLeod F
Kings
Kaliev F
Durzi D
Kupari F
Sharks
Dahlen F (unsigned)
Weatherby F
Kraken
0
Canucks
Podkolzin F
Golden Knights
0
What was the average on the contending teams?
Flames 0
Oilers MacLeod F
Kings Kaliev F Durzi D Kupari F
The avg for teams contending for the division title was 1.33 per team.
It’s my contention that contending teams rarely dress more than 2 rookies at a time.
The Cup Contenders even less.
By this paradigm those rookies who make it on said contending teams REALLY accomplished something significant
I really should be adding Bouchard for the Oilers here as he only played in 14 games the year prior and 7 the year before. According to nhl.com he wasn’t considered a rook.
I’ll look at the others teams as well when I get a chance
Are the Hot Dog vendors in Edmonton pushing for Big Phil to sign? I am sure that if Woody wanted Jesse back 100%, there would be no potential trade. Foegele should be moved, but in the end JP will be the sacrificial lamb.
Skinner should be in the ‘Certain’ Oiler section. Does anyone think he would pass through waivers? I don’t and we could lose him. Pickard is one of a plethora of #3 / #4 NHL goalies and I can not see any team claiming him – and if they do, not much of a loss as he can be replaced fairly easily. My concern is Holland’s handling of the goalies during the Covid season cost this team, I hope he has learned something.
“The other item stopping Holland from dealing Puljujarvi is possible return. The general manager took significant heat over the Duncan Keith trade,”
The screamers screams scared some other screamers and it echoed down the canyon.
Ahhh citing the Keith trade.
Yup the GM takes a bizarre amount of heat for a trade that worked out pretty well.
One WC final later, a mentored Bouchard and with $5.38 off the books which allowed us to sign Kane, its still the contract that gets everyone riled up.
It strikes me that the reality is that Holland had a gentleman’s agreement that Keith would retire after one year. It would explain why there wasn’t a sweetener and or cap hold back when the deal was made. Relationship building!
I don’t think Holland much cares about the heat he took with any transaction he’s ever made while in Oil country. You don’t last 3 billion years in this league as a GM by caring about the fans.
You’re right….it is tempting…..
“none will dress!”
There….I said it!
(disclaimer: with the possible exception of…………Mike Smith 🙂 )
“Trading Puljujarvi for a fourth-round pick will send echoes down the canyon. Is it worth trading the player if the backlash is so strong it becomes a major story over the summer and into season ticket buying season? ”
I like JP. I’m fine with the new contract and am excitied to see him get another opportunity to gel on this roster.
Why is JP’s trade value SO FAR out of line with his “implied” on ice performance?
The contrast is SO STARK as to be non-credible and/or unbelievable.
If 31 other general managers look at a cost controlled JP and say…meh…I’ll give you a 2nd……then some form of adjustment regarding this players value has to occur.
We live in a market based economy; The NHL and those of us who analyze it are not immune to that.
If we have to debate which player will return more value in trade, Foegele at $2.75m or JP at $3m when it is almost universally accepted that Foegele is at least a small overpay, then I think we are obligated by reason to down grade our expectations on JP. Those who don’t are surely going to be the ones who are screaming into the canyon. Do you want to count yourself among the screamers?
Yo De Le He Hoo!
#Middle6
The best result may be a trade of Foegele for a defensive right D at 1.75 . Then move Barrie for a prospect and second round draft choice. Resign the UFA’s with the money freed up. Problem solved. Very easy to do as an idea but probably much more difficult in the reality of a flat cap world!
I think you speak for many with this proposal. Very reasonable.
I also think that the Oilers management and players value Barrie (and his contract) in a way that most fans/posters don’t.
If I were to pick the “sweet spot” for a Barrie trade, it would be summer 2023
Barrie’s trade value will never be higher than it is now! He is coming off a year where he was a key on the power play and playing for a team that went to the final four. Assuming he plays third pairing D and Bouchard takes the reins on the power play his value will plummet.
you are correct in that the market sets the value for JP. This isn’t a case of another GM making a “I had no idea he was available” comment. The cap space should be included in any return for JP (or whoever) along with whatever else comes back. The NHL market is shifting squeezing out the middle class like never before, with more free agent options to replace a player than what would have been available in the past. IMO if Kenny signs Phil for $2M, then we should look at the whole thing in total – eg. JP for a 2nd, Phil and $1M in cap space, or simply a 2nd and $3M in cap space for JP. We can want him to be worth more, but it’s up to 31 other GMs to set his value.
The Melman delivered the mel today! Well done.
Question for you:
Are you the half-anthropomorphic, Jewish giraffe? or some other Melman?
Ha! I never put that together before – it’s a spin on my dad’s middle name Melvin. I can’t imagine growing up with that handle in today’s age
I agree with LT that Holland isn’t signing anybody until he knows Yamamoto’s number at least. McLeod has no leverage and will have to take what is left this year.
The chairs are filling up pretty fast around the league though. I doubt it would take $2M to sign Kessel at this point in his career.
He can probably pick from a few teams that would sign him but I would expect at around $1M + bonuses to kick some of the cap hit down the road a year.
Is he eligible for bonuses? He’s not 35 yet.
God, you’re right. I never even looked since it seems like he has been in the league forever. I see he turns 35 in October. I suspect that is too late for him to qualify for the bonus clause.
========================
CapFriendly has the answer.
What is a 35-plus contract?A contract is designated a 35+ contract if the players age on the first year of the contract is 35 or older (as of June 30 prior to the year of the effective contract).
June 30 was the date so he isn’t eligible.
Even if he was, adding more potential performance bonuses is not an imaterial thing.
The Oilers have a cap penalty of $896K this year due to bonus overages and, given they will be in LTIR all year again, any performance bonuses that hit will create a dollar-for-dollar cap penalty for next season.
Bouch can hit up to 4 Sched A bonuses again for $850, he’ll assuredly hit those if he’s healthy. Broberg has a few for up to $500K and Holloway somewhere in the $300K range (haven’t checked for a bit).
Oilers are already going to have a min $850K of bonus overage penalties for next season without giving out any more.
Interesting Kessll tidbit.
“Despite his age, Kessel does offer reliability; the knowledge that he will be in the lineup every single night. Currently, he owns the longest active ironman streak in the NHL, playing 982 consecutive games. The longest streak in NHL history belongs to Keith Yandle, who’s record of 989 consecutive games was secured, and snapped, earlier this season.”
Yeah, he pretty much defied all the odds and stereotypes of what it takes to stay healthy in the league.
52 points last season. He can still be effective with the puck.
His shooting percentage last season was less than half of his career number.
A good bet to improve especially on a team that can actually score goals.
The Oilers set the acquisition cost!
All seems reasonable, but I’d move Bourgault and Malone into the ‘uncertain’ group myself. Pretty thin on RW and he’s a great prospect, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Malone started as a press box guy.
Darnell Nurse:
At what point and in what way do we include the player accepting multiple paychecks not commensurate with his play / value and then accepting a role not optimal for maximizing his remuneration?
Nurse signed
In the seasons 2013 through 2017 Darnell Nurse was under contract with the Edmonton Oilers his total pay for those 5 years… $4.4m
His net contract…. 2yrs x $3.2m
Following that, 2yrs x $5.6m
What is/was the total cost savings achieved during those years by asking Nurse to take short term contracts?
We all want to sign young first round picks to long term contracts, but there is risk inherent in doing so.
You can’t eat your cake and have it too.
Further to this, It is my belief that Darnell was asked to play a different role on this Oilers squad given the departure of Klefbom/Larsson; A role more focused on defense. A shutdown type on a poor defensive team (He was asked to play the role of 1A at a price of $5.6m….that’s a big #$%# ask) Nurse not only rose to the challenge but accepted the challenge without complaint.
Further to that, Nurse’s current contract bought 8 UFA years right at a time when the Cap is projected to rise significantly year over year.
At the very least, let’s wait 2 or 3 years to see what the contract looks like then.
In the mean time, it’s no where near as bad as some make it out to be. Quite to the contrary; and I also believe that Darnell’s team mates value him highly and have ZERO qualms about his pay scale.
I am very confident that as this team gets better, Darnell Nurse gets better and vice versa.
Respectfully, the fuck cares what Nurse’s teammates think about his contract lol?
The reality is, Nurse is going to be overpaid by a couple million. This is us. Hopefully, the cap goes up in a few years and it eases some of pain.
You should have typed that in ALL CAPS! 😉
Note: the same was said for Draisaitl when his contract was signed.
I wrote a long post about this on LT’s piece at The Athletic and while, yes, I agree, he’s likely to be a bit overpaid on the cap, I do think his actual value to the team and the org, goes beyond the “objective analysis of his on-ice play”. His durability, his place in the leadership group, his relationship with 29/97, his contract going for 4-years past McDavid’s expiry, etc…… there is value there that is tough to measure.
As far as “hoping the cap goes up”, well, revenues have already rebounded to a place where the cap would be up materially is not for the escrow debt that is owed. That’s scheduled to be paid off for the 2024/25 season and, presuming there isn’t another global event that craters revenues, the cap looks to jump, big time, like near or upwards of $100MM in fairly short order
your dreaming of u think u can get a defensman like Nurse who is in top five in minutes, plays top five in defence against elites and has produced 5 on 5 offense when coaches put him in that situation .. no matter what he’s coming in well over 8 mill
Well said and I truly wish for people to stop giving him the ‘Horcoff’. Nurse is this team’s #1 dman and, when healthy, plays like one. The Oilers lost their #1 and #2 LD (Sekera and Klef) in a short period of time due to injury and Nurse stepped up.
For all the Nurse haters out there, please look at a list of his RD partners over the years! When Nurse was not carrying the first pairing (other than with Ceci last year)?
Calgary fans are talking up Makenzie Weegar (good dman) as a #1 dman – but he has played a significant part of his career with Ekblad. We wait!
After the Werenski and Jones signings, the Oilers had no choice but to sign Nurse at $9 million – unless they were okay with a contentious, protracted negotiation or trading him.
Everyone is making very good points regarding the Nurse contract. The market simply dictated things, especially the Jones contract.
Don’t begrudge a guy for getting paid. You would never want anyone doing that to you so…
On the upside of all this cap stuff, John Shannon stated on a podcast recently that the general belief is that the cap will go up between 10-12 million the year after next.
That will certainly change things in terms of perspective.
Couldn’t agree more. Nurse’s contract is based on the cap climbing to $100 million before it’s half done. Very savvy management leading to Draisatl and McDavid reups. The Oilers stay competetive and playoff bound for long into the future.
Early morning odds on a Oiler trade.
J.P-50%
Yamo-20%
Foegele-20%
Barrie-9%
McLeod-1%
I certainly hope that those are not the actual percentages…
Something has to give. Who do you think will be leaving the team in a trade before the season starts?
I think this should total more than 100%. I think there’s still a decent chance both of Puljujarvi and Foegele are traded.
Trading only one can work, but would require the team to run a player short of a full roster, and without enough cap space to cover an injury call-up.
McLeod is a certain Oiler this year. He’s valuable and will be on a value contract and there will be no cap savings to him not being on the roster.
This.
The Oilers need to cut $1.5 – $2 million off the payroll. Trading Ryan McLeod will not accomplish this.
Speaking of McLeod and his contract, there is speculation of really grinding him, like I’ve even read in the $900K range (which is like a $40K raise) and I hope that Holland doesn’t do this and give the kid a reasonable raise that he’s earned – $250K to $400K, for a decent range.
I was listening to Darren Haynes discuss a what Mangiapane’s contract could look like and he talked about this history. A few years back they really grinded him. Mangiapane was looking for a bump to like $750K and they wouldn’t give it to him. He even “held out” and missed camp and eventually caved at $700K.
Lets NOT do that with McLeod and keep the relationship and the good will.
Treliving even did that to Jenny (TM) Hockey – and look where that got him.
A line of Yakupov, Lander and Korpikoski. That looks as weird now as it would have looked then.
A swap of Pulji for Kessel would certainly show the Oilers are in “win now” mode. But I think the future sacrifice isn’t worth the risk
Trading a 24 year old bottom 6 winger or one of 2 young top 9 wingers – not a hard decision is it.
How about trading Foegele AND Puljujarvi AND a 1st AND Carter Savoie …
For Patrick Kane with 50% retained
I would upgrade my tv, get surround sound, and settle in for the best season of Oilers hockey in ~35 years
Kane and Toews are both only owed $2.9 million in salary this year as I assume their bonuses have already been paid. So it’s only cap hit that CHI would retain and they have more than plenty. Kane is still putting up numbers and would be expensive. Toews would be cheaper and interesting as our 3C this year. Recent history between these franchises adds to the intrigue.
Absolutely no to ‘Captain Serious’. A 34-year old LC who has never been a pt/game guy and is now dropping off significantly. He is a great PK man with mad FO skills, but you don’t pay big assets or money for that.
Chicago may have no choice but to do Kane a favor, he may not actually cost too much at all.
I think you’re right, Chicago won’t have a choice and most teams are likely aware of that. That’s why I don’t think they’ll get a king’s ransom when they are dealt.
I can’t believe what has become of that franchise. Absolutely brutal.
Welcome aboard DL. Is a premium seat in the Caboose ok with you.
Don’t want to scare the other patrons. 😉
Isn’t that what we said about Keith?
Welcome. There’s room for everyone on this train.
Welcome aboard John.
What took you so long? < haha kidding
That wouldn’t even get Hawk management to return the call and discuss.
Foegele’s value is essentially zero – he MIGHT be able to be traded without a sweetener.
Savoie’s value in a trade is essentially nothing – he’s get a great shot and has a chance to be an NHL player but he’s a B prospect and nowhere near close to the NHL.
Jesse has some value.
The Hawks could do MUCH better.