DRAFT WEEK POST #12: BLUE BULLET’S 30
Every year, Brad McPherson is kind enough to pass along his top 30. As with speeds, spOILer and others from the distant past of hfboards, Blue Bullet’s top 30s are an exceptional guide, a worthwhile read and a treat for fans of the draft.
1 YAKUPOV, NAIL SARNIA OHL 5′ 10.5″ 189 RW 42GP-31G-38A-69P-30PIM
Every year I look for the most dynamic game changing player to rank as my number 1 player and with this year it is Nail Yakupov. The difference with this year than the last few years is that Yakupov, while he does have star potential, may not be a franchise player you build your team around. What he does bring to the table is being not only a good sniper with great speed and a heavy shot but also underrated playmaking skills. Yakupov is also not afraid of the dirty areas and has some of that fearlessness similar to Taylor Hall that makes him a great player but can also bring about injuries.
Top line goal scoring winger
2 DUMBA, MATHEW RED DEER WHL 5′ 11.75″ 173 D 69GP-20G-37A-57P-67PIM
Dumba is the kind of player that wants to be a difference maker every time he is on the ice. He is a riverboat gambler of a d-man that loves going for the big hit which he will need to learn to reign in as it sometimes does cost him. Dumba is a strong powerplay d-man with a bomb of a shot as he displayed leading the U-18 tournament in scoring which is extremely rare for a d-man. How you view Dumba and his potential at the pro level all depends on how much you think his size will affect his ability to play his style.
Top pairing two-way d-man
3 MURRAY, RYAN EVERETT WHL 6′ 0.5″ 195 D 46GP-9G-22A-31P-31PIM
In terms of defensive play Murray is the top d-man in this year’s draft class. He is a very mature player for his age and physically developed where he may be able to step into the NHL at 18 years of age which is rare for a d-man. For Murray his puck moving ability, smarts and positioning really stand out in his game and if he was a more dynamic offensive player he would be the #1 pick in the draft. While he may not be a dynamic enough player to be a true #1 cornerstone d-man, Murray could turn out to be a great top pairing d-man and a poor man’s Lidstrom.
Top pairing shutdown d-man
4 FORSBERG, FILIP LEKSAND SWEDEN-2 6′ 2.0″ 181 W 43GP-8G-9A-17P-33PIM
Forsberg is the most complete forward in the draft and could go as high as #2 which would make it two years in a row for a Swede at the draft. Forsberg is a big strong forward who knows how to use his size very well down low. While he is still growing into his frame he is already very hard to knock off the puck and once he fills out he will be very tough to knock off the puck. Another, one of his biggest assets is his hard shot and his ability to find open space to use it. My main question when it comes to Forsberg is how much offensive upside he has and whether he is a true first line winger or more of a 2nd liner.
Complete player with power forward game
5 RIELLY, MORGAN MOOSE JAW WHL 5′ 11.5″ 190 D 18GP-3G-15A-18GP-2PIM
If he wasn’t injured for most of the year Reilly might be my #2 over Matt Dumba but it’s always tough for scouts to judge players at this age to begin with never mind with limited viewings. In terms of puck handling ability and skating Reilly is the best of all the d-men in this year’s draft class. He is a dynamic offensive d-man that has the potential to be a top pairing d-man. You wish he had a little more size and a little more physical game for play in his own zone.
Top pairing offensive d-man
6 GALCHENYUK, ALEX SARNIA OHL 6′ 0.5″ 198 C 2GP-0G-0A-0P-0PIM
Alex Galchenyuk is a player I could be regretting placing 6th on my list when I look at back at my rankings but he has been a tough player to get a read on due to virtually no playing time this year due to injury. What we can be certain of is Galchenyuk is a very good athlete who worked his way back early to return for the playoffs. One concern like any duo like Yakupov and Galchenyuk is who benefits more from playing with each other like past duos such as Kane-Gagner. For me Galchenyuk looks to be a safe pick as he looks like he could develop into a strong two-way center even his offensive upside stagnates.
Two-way first line center
7 GRIGORENKO, MIKHAIL QUEBEC QMJHL 6′ 3.0″ 200 C 59GP-40G-45A-85P-12PIM
In terms of talent, Grigorenko is right up there with Yakupov but he doesn’t bring the same type of consistency game to game as Yakupov. However, he is the big skilled strong center that every team wants and if his consistency improves Grigorenko could be a true 1st line center at the NHL level. However, Grigorenko will need to improve his effort level when the puck is not on his stick because if he does not he will be infuriate coaches at the pro level. One thing to consider is the effects mono had on him late into the season and the playoffs in terms of his production.
First line offensive center with size
8 TERAVAINEN, TEUVO JOKERIT FINLAND 5′ 11.0″ 165 LW 40GP-11G-7A-18P-6PIM
The biggest riser last year in my draft rankings was Jonathan Huberdeau, who jumped to being a top 5 pick by the end of the year. With this year’s draft Teravainen was the biggest riser in the first round and eventually cracked my top 10. A very skilled puck wizard, Teravainen has the speed and skill to be a top line winger at the pro level. However, much of that is dependent on how his game translates to the NHL level and how well he is able to handle the size of NHL d-man as he plays more of a slippery perimeter game.
Small talented first line winger
9 TROUBA, JACOB USA U-18 USHL 6′ 2.0″ 193 D 54GP-9G-23A-32P-71PIM
Trouba is the kind of d-man that any team would love to have as he is a great skater for his size and plays a physical brand of hockey. While he is a more of a defensive d-man I do think Trouba has some decent offensive skills that go underrated. While Reinhart and Trouba have a similar upside, Trouba is the more polished physical d-man at this point in time. While Trouba isn’t a corner stone d-man he has all the tools to be a top pairing shutdown d-man.
#2 d-man with shutdown ability
10 REINHART, GRIFFIN EDMONTON WHL 6′ 3.75″ 197 D 58GP-12G-24A-36P-38PIM
Like Trouba, I don’t believe Reinhart is a cornerstone d-man but is a very solid reliable d-man similar to what his father provided with the Flames back in the day. Reinhart is a jack of all trades d-man with a very big frame that you can put out in any situation. While he does use his size well, using his long reach for containment purposes, Reinhart could be more active in the physical game. However, as the season wore on and the games got tougher in the playoffs, Reinhart stepped up this side of the game which is a good sign.
#2-3 all-around d-man
11 CECI, CODY OTTAWA OHL 6′ 2.5″ 207 D 64GP-17G-43A-60P-14PIM
Cody Ceci is an offensive d-man in a large frame that put up almost a PPG pace in the OHL this season. Ceci is a very strong PP quarterback for Ottawa and has a strong shot from the point that he like to use. One area you would like to see improve is Ceci’s physical game especially for a player of his size as he uses more his positioning and reach when defending in his own zone. He already has the offensive upside and with the right development he has similar upside to what were currently seeing in Oiler d-man Jeff Petry.
#2-3 two-way d-man
12 FAKSA, RADEK KITCHENER OHL 6′ 2.5″ 203 C 62GP-29G-38A-67P-47PIM
The best Czech player in this years draft is North American import Radek Faksa. Faksa already plays a North American power forward game using his 6’3 frame to his advantage as he is a strong player along the wall. Faksa is also a hard working character forward who can be used in all situations and is also one of the safest picks in the draft as even if his offensive does not translate to the pro level he has the tools and character to be a very good role player.
Top 6 big power forward
13 MAATTA, OLLI LONDON OHL 6′ 1.5″ 202 D 58GP-5G-27A-32P-25PIM
Like Reinhart, having a long playoff run really helped the stock of London d-man Olli Maatta. He is the definition of a safe steady reliable d-man and is a coach’s dream. While not the most physical d-man for his size he is similar to Ryan Murray in his own zone as they both use their smarts and positioning to shut down the opposing forwards. In the playoffs, Maatta was able to show more of his offensive game that he did not demonstrate during the regular season.
Steady reliable top 4 d-man
14 LINDHOLM, HAMPUS ROGLE JR. SWE-JR. 6′ 2.5″ 196 D 28GP-5G-12A-17P-16PIM
Lindholm was one of my late draft risers, who worked his way into my top 15 because of his strong play at the end of year in the promotion-round games and into the international tournaments. Through the course of the year he was one of the most improved players in the draft as his offensive game really developed. While the consistency in his defensive game still needs refining, he has all the tools to develop into a strong two-way d-man with size.
2nd pairing two-way d-man
15 GIRGENSONS, ZEMGUS DUBUQUE USHL 6′ 1.5″ 198 C 49GP-24G-31A-55P-69PIM
Girgensons is a Latvian born player who is a strong two-way center with good size. He is a fairly safe pick as he is the type of player that has a lot of intangibles to his game as well as a good work ethic and is willing to do all the little things necessary to win. The question with Girgunsens is does he have the natural scoring ability to be a 2nd line center at the pro level. If not he could at least be a very valuable 3rd line checking center.
Two way 2nd line center with size
16 ABERG, PONTUS DJURGARDEN SWEDEN 5′ 11.0″ 194 LW 47GP-8G-7A-15P-6PIM
Out of all the Swedes in this year’s draft, Pontus Aberg had the best season out of them in terms of play at the pro level. A stocky, smaller player Aberg uses his great speed and skilled hands off the wing to produce his offence and has the upside to be a very good 2nd line winger. While not the biggest guy he isn’t afraid of taking the puck to traffic and is not a perimeter player. Aberg is a player that I believe is getting underrated as many rankings have him outside their top 20.
Scoring 2nd line winger
17 VASILEVSKI, ANDREI UFA 2 RUSSIA-JR. 6′ 3.25″ 204 G
Goalie is the toughest position to judge when doing draft rankings but that did not stop me from having 3 in my top 30 this year. Vasilevski is my #1 of the 3 as he is the best combination of being a very athletic goalie to go along with great size. He jumped on to the scene this year at the World Juniors where he had an incredible .953 SV% and showed he can compete against the best players his age. He is a very composed goaltender who plays with a lot of confidence in net. Probably the weakest area in his game is his puck handling skills and is the type of goalie you rather see stay in his net.
#1 starting goalie
18 COLLBERG, SEBASTIAN FROLUNDA SWEDEN 5′ 11.0″ 176 RW 41GP-0G-0A-0P-0PIM
If you based Collberg’s play this season based purely on his SEL season you would wonder why I had him in my top 20 as he had zero points. However, when looking at European players you must consider there playing time and in Collberg’s case it was very minimal in the SEL. Where he has shown the most this year was at the international tournaments when he was playing against players his own age. While a smaller player, Collberg is very skilled with the puck and is a slippery player who knows how to find himself in the scoring areas.
2nd line scoring forward
19 GAUNCE, BRENDAN BELLEVILLE OHL 6′ 2.0″ 215 C 68GP-28G-40A-68P-68PIM
Guance is one of the most physically developed players in the draft and could be one of the first players from the draft class to make the jump to the pros. A big power forward center, Guance is the type of center all teams covet. Like Girgensons ,who I have rated a little above Guance, he is a player that will be very useful as a 3rd line checking center if his offensive game does not translate to the pros. Whether he end up in a top 6 role will most likely depend on how well Guance improves the explosiveness in his skating which is his weakest area.
Two way 2nd line center with size
20 FINN, MATTHEW GUELPH OHL 6′ 0.25″ 192 D 61GP-10G-38A-48P-58PIM
Matt Finn is an all-around two-way d-man that plays with character and was already leader of the defense on his team despite his age. While not a first pairing d-man, Finn has the upside to be a strong 2nd pairing d-man that can play both on the PP and the PK. The biggest item that would hold Finn back is that he is only 6’ which is slightly undersized for a d-man. However as Oilers fans have seen, with a d-man like Steve Staios, that having character and leadership qualities and the desire to win can make up for it.
Two-way 2nd pairing d-man
21 POULIOT, DERRICK PORTLAND WHL 5′ 11.25″ 190 D 72GP-11G-48A-59P-79PIM
One of the players in the draft that people seem to be split on is Pouliot as some see a strong offensive d-man with top pairing potential while people like me are more of the opinion that he is a 2nd pairing d-man that can also quarterback a 2nd pp unit. He is a smaller smooth skating d-man that loves to carry the puck up ice though sometimes he can try to do too much at times. Since Pouliot is not the biggest d-man he will need to rely on his positioning in his own zone to be an effective defender in the pros.
2nd pairing offensive d-man
22 KOEKKOEK, SLATER PETERBOROUGH OHL 6′ 2.0″ 184 D 26GP-5G-13A-18P-17PIM
Koekkoek is another in a long list of players in this draft to miss the most of the year due to injury. For a player like Koekkoek it has seen his stock slowly drop over the year as scouts were not able to see how his development progressed. In the meantime players like Lindholm leapfrogged over him in the rankings. The thing we do know is that Koekkoek skates very well for a d-man of his size and has some underrated offensive potential and has the potential to develop into a 2nd pairing two-way d-man.
2nd pairing two-way d-man
23 BYSTROM, LUDWIG MODO JR. SWE-JR. 6′ 0.75″ 208 D 34GP-7G-22A-29P-101PIM
Bystrom is a safe steady jack of all trades d-man from Sweden that is good at everything but not great at any one skill. What Bystrom receives the most praise for is his composure under pressure which is an important skillset at the pro level where there is less time for decision-making. Where he will need to improve upon to make the jump to the next level is his strength which is below average for his 6’1 frame.
2nd pairing two-way d-man
24 WILSON, THOMAS PLYMOUTH OHL 6′ 3.5″ 203 RW 49GP-9G-18A-27P-141PIM
Ever since Milan Lucic exploded on the scene everybody is looking for the next Lucic and in this year’s draft it is Tom Wilson. While Wilson will likely never have the hands to put up the numbers that Lucic did he may have some untapped offensive potential as he showed off in the playoffs this year. In terms of physical play there is no better player in the draft this year as Wilson is always initiating contact whenever he can. He also has no problem backing up his physical play and is no slouch when the gloves come off.
Physical 3rd line character player
25 HERTL, TOMAS SLAVIA CZREP 6′ 2.0″ 198 C 38GP-12G-13A-25P-22PIM
Tomas Hertl would likely be a top 15 pick, like fellow countrymen Radek Faksa, if it wasn’t for his skating which will need to improve if he wants to make the jump to the next level. While Faksa is a safe bet to make the pros, Hertl is more of a higher risk/reward player. While he has the size and soft hands needed to be a top 6 scoring forward at the NHL level, if his skating holds him back it’s questionable whether he will be able adjust to being a role player as his defensive game needs a bit of work.
2nd line scoring winger with size
26 SUBBAN, MALCOLM BELLEVILLE OHL 6′ 1.0″ 188 G
Malcom Subban, the younger brother of Montreal Canadiens PK Subban is an extremely athletic butterfly goalie. While not as big as you would like in today’s goaltenders Subban makes up for that with his quick legs and amazing reflexes. However, he has only been playing net since he was 12 so he still has a long ways to go with the other areas such as staying calmer in net, rebound control and working on his glove hand. If he can get the technical side of the position down he will be a star goalie but that’s the big question mark.
Starting goalie with star potential or career backup
27 THROWER, DALTON SASKATOON WHL 5′ 11.5″ 189 D 66GP-18G-36A-54P-103PIM
Dalton Thrower is the type of d-man that you wish was 3-4 inches taller because we would be talking about a top 12 pick rather than a late first rounder. A small but stocky physical defender, Thrower is a competitive warrior of a d-man that will do anything to help his team win. While he is effective at the junior level there are concerns on whether his style of physical play will translate to the pro level when the players get bigger.
2nd pairing two-way defender
28 KERDILES, NICOLAS USA U-18 USHL 6′ 1.5″ 201 LW 54GP-22G-26A-48P-38PIM
In terms of talent Kerdiles should be a top 20 pick for this year’s draft but issues with consistency has dropped him to being a late 1st round pick. Despite the consistency issues, he was the leading scorer for the US development team and for the USA gold medal U-18 team so he can turn on the offensive when he wants. What Kerdiles does have is the shot, skating and size to be a goal producer at the pros and a top 6 forward. He also is a higher risk/reward player because if he doesn’t improve his consistency and work ethic he will have trouble cracking a NHL roster.
2nd line scoring forward
29 SKJEI, BRADY USA U-18 USHL 6′ 2.75″ 200 D 60GP-4G-19A-23P-36PIM
Skjei is another big smooth skating d-man from the US development team like his teammate Jacob Trouba. The difference between the two of them is that Trouba is further along in his development and is a much more polished d-man while Skjei is more of a project at this time. While his skating and size are above average, the rest of Skjei’s game like hockey sense and pucks skills are just average. For him to be successful at the next level Skjei will likely have to develop into more of a defensive d-man.
#2nd pairing smooth skating defensive d-man
30 DANSK, OSCAR BRYNAS JR. SWE-JR. 6′ 2.5″ 186 G
Oscar Dansk is a big Swedish butterfly goalie that has a good combination of athletic ability and technique. He has already played in North America playing prep school at Shattuck-St. Mary’s and will likely be coming over to the CHL next year so he is ahead of the curve for European goalies when it comes to learning the North American game and learning the angles. He is a very tough goalie to beat down low with his long legs and is well composed in net. One area that he will need to work on if he wants to be a starter in the NHL is improving his rebound control.
Starting goalie with size but lacks star potential
31 SAMUELSSON, HENRIK EDMONTON WHL 6′ 2.25″ 211 C/RW 28GP-7G-16A-23P-42PIM
32 SLEPYSHEV, ANTON NOVOKUZNETSK RUSSIA 6′ 2.0″ 187 LW 39GP-4G-3A-7P-2PIM
33 MATTEAU, STEFAN USA U-18 USHL 6′ 1.5″ 210 C/LW 46GP-15G-17A-32P-166PIM
34 JANKOWSKI, MARK STANSTEAD HIGH-QC 6′ 2.5″ 170 C 57GP-53G-40A-93P-54PIM
35 SCHMALTZ, JORDAN GREEN BAY USHL 6′ 2.0″ 185 D 48GP-9G-23A-32P-27PIM
36 LAUGHTON, SCOTT OSHAWA OHL 6′ 0.25″ 180 C 64GP-21G-32A-53P-101PIM
37 MATHESON, MICHAEL DUBUQUE USHL 6′ 1.0″ 178 D 47GP-9G-13A-22P-78PIM
38 SEVERSON, DAMON KELOWNA WHL 6′ 1.5″ 193 D 56GP-7G-30A-37P-80PIM
39 POKKA, VILLE KARPAT FINLAND 6′ 0.0″ 196 D 33GP-0G-3A-3P-12PIM
40 BOZON, TIM KAMLOOPS WHL 6′ 0.25″ 175 LW 71GP-36G-35A-71P-40PIM
41 DI GIUSEPPE, PHILLIP MICHIGAN CCHA 5′ 11.5″ 176 LW 40GP-11G-15A-26P-18PIM
42 PELECH, ADAM ERIE OHL 6′ 2.0″ 194 D 44GP-2G-18A-20P-52PIM
43 PROKHORKIN, NIKOLAY CSKA 2 RUSSIA-JR. 6′ 2.5″ 191 LW 15GP-9G-17A-26P-47PIM
44 PEARSON, TANNER BARRIE OHL 6′ 0.0″ 195 LW 60GP-37G-54A-91P-37PIM
45 KOSMACHUK, SCOTT GUELPH OHL 5′ 11.5″ 183 RW 67GP-30G-29A-59P-108PIM
46 SISSONS, COLTON KELOWNA WHL 6′ 0.5″ 187 C/RW 58GP-26G-15A-41P-62PIM
47 MAIDENS, JARROD OWEN SOUND OHL 6′ 0.5″ 178 C/LW 28GP-12G-11A-23P-4PIM
48 SIELOFF, PATRICK USA U-18 USHL 6′ 0.0″ 198 D 60GP-3G-7A-10P-113PIM
49 VAIL, BRADY WINDSOR OHL 6′ 0.25″ 195 LW 68GP-22G-30A-52P-55PIM
50 WINTHER, MIKE PRINCE ALBERT WHL 5′ 11.75″ 170 C 71GP-32G-24A-56P-59PIM
51 SUTTER, LUKAS SASKATOON WHL 5′ 11.75″ 214 C 70GP-28G-31A-59P-165PIM
52 ZHARKOV, DANIIL BELLEVILLE OHL 6′ 3.0″ 202 LW 50GP-23G-13A-36P-25PIM
53 MCCABE, JAKE U. OF WISCONSIN WCHA 6′ 0.0″ 195 D 26GP-3G-9A-12P-12PIM
54 FRK, MARTIN HALIFAX QMJHL 5′ 11.75″ 200 RW 34GP-16G-13A-29P-41PIM
55 FOX, DANE ERIE OHL 6′ 0.0″ 185 C 62GP-23G-31A-54P-87PIM
56 HART, BRIAN EXETER HIGH-NH 6′ 2.0″ 216 W 27GP-29G-27A-56P
57 NIEVES, CRISTOVAL KENT SCHOOL HIGH-CT 6′ 2.75″ 184 C 26GP-7G-32A-39P
58 MURRAY, MATTHEW SAULT STE. MARIE OHL 6′ 4.0″ 169 G
59 HYKA, TOMAS GATINEAU QMJHL 5′ 10.5″ 164 RW 50GP-20G-44A-64P-30PIM
60 ANDERSSON, CALLE FARJESTAD JR SWE-JR 6′ 2.25″ 208 D 49GP-12G-24A-36P-56PIM
Well that throws us another curve – wait a second, no it doesn’t. Everyone has Yakupov first, why does this continue to be an issue for us? Take Yakupov!
Why?
1. Quotes like this from Bob MacKenzie: But of the eight scouts who ranked Yakupov No. 1, most of them said the gap between Yakupov and the rest of the field — it was generally considered in the first half of the season to be fairly wide — has closed significantly since Yakupov first suffered a knee injury at the World Junior Championship and later sustained a mild shoulder separation and was only average to below average when he returned, especially in Sarnia’s first-round playoff loss.
“(Yakupov) is the top guy,” one scout told TSN, “but it’s no longer a reach to consider someone else could be taken instead of him. It was at the beginning of the season.”
2. The goal is to get the player that will be the best in 5 years. Nail is the best player now, but will he be that in the long run?
As you know I am not as enamored with the oiler amateur scouts.
So in the interest of saving money I decided to fire them in 2004 and use Mckenzies list.
If the player Bob chose was not available I used the next highest of his picks.
2011 to 2010 Hopkins, Hall, MPS no kidding
2008 Carlson instead of Eberle Bit of down arrow but you have to thick about best in 10 years
2007 Voracek instead of Gagner
Backlund instead of pPlante
Esposito instead of Nash
2005 Pavelec instead of Cogliano
2004 Zagac instead of Dubnyk
Schremp instead of Schremp
So what do you think of my team.
I have two big centers plus Nuge.I have a good young goalie in Pavelec..
I have a top four defender in Calson and a great wing in Hall.
Prospects are MPS and Backlund
I also have two busts in Schremp and Espsito but the oilers have three in Nash Plante and Schremp.
The bonus is I saved all that money they are spending on Scouts for Mr Katz.
sliderule,
While I too wonder how some team’s scouting departments might do if they were to just follow McKenzie’s list (85% accuracy of 1st round picks since 2008 is ridiculous), I think to be fair to the current Oilers regime, you’d have to just go back to Stu’s first year as head scout, no?
A lot of the busts or questionable moves were under Prendergast’s direction, assuming he led the direction in those years. I think LT is right in declaring MBS at least above average in scouting.
He’s that accurate because McKenzie is polling the scouts, not coming up with who he thinks should go where.
There is still wisdom in the crowd.
In other news I went to take a shit this morning and realized a damn bird must have busted through my air vent because I have family of chicks living in the duct in my fucking bathroom.
I’ve never been the hunting type but I’m so raged right now that I could blast the head off a one week old sparrow.
Fuuuark.
My last two attempts at posts dissapeared into cyberspace. They were a quote from Darren Dreger this morning saying he believes the Oilers have a good shot at Schultz . I don’t know what happened to them, does this happen with anyone else?
Anyway, it;s not really news that the Oilers have a great shot at landing him but it is good to hear it come from those guys who know what’s going on.
Traktor, I don’t get the metaphor. Which one is Cogliano and which one is Gagner?
A few interesting things from Dreger today:
- Darren Helm signs for 4 years $8.5 mill. He is a valuable guy, but damn, more then $2 mill for a guy who gets 25 to 30 or so points every year. Gagners number keeps rising.
- Pavelec from Winnipeg wants multiple years for more then $4 mill per. Winnipeg doesn’t want to pay it. And Kane’s agent claims they have not asked for a trade. That would be an interesting deal to get both of them. Would anyone do the 1st overall for Kane? a tough LW to balance out our top 6. I would do it, even though it’ll cost us money today as opposed to 3 years from now.
As Stu was the top WHL scout I wouldn’t give him a pass on the earlier drafts.
He had to be recommending Plante and Nash to Prendergast.They were not even in TSNs top thirty and completely off the wall.
The head scout doesn’t get to see the players as much as his underlings and therefor relies on their judgement
It goes to show that you don’t go against the consensus of the rest of the league.
Truth,
I don’t see where Dreger comments on Schultz and the Oilers. Where did you hear this?
jonrmcleod,
Think he said it on TSN last night before the draft preview show. Never saw it on twitter, but he mentioned it a few times, and him and Button both said it’s probably between Toronto and edmonton with both saying they think Edmonton has a great shot.
The two biggest things that I agree with BB on, but don’t seem to be popular opinion in recent rankings from other sources are Trouba over Reinhart and Rielly in the top 5.
Oilers re-sign Petrell.: http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=635073
They are trying to keep everyone from last year’s team.
Is Mental.
jonrmcleod,
Re: Schultz. He may have mentioned it on TSN Radio (Toronto) where he does a regular hit with Steve Simmons.
sliderule,
Love the idea of just drafting off Bob’s list. “Super Central Scouting”. Speaking of, wonder if the NHL’s central scouting department would be able to pitch the league (and hence all 30 teams) on the value of getting TOI info on top propects. Even if they only decided to take a standard sample of games where they collect advanced stats that information may prove very helpful not only in and of itself but in terms of projecting the predictive value of the advanced stats at lower levels of hockey and with younger players. Seem plausable?
Nothing wrong with that signing if the intent is for him to be an AHL defenceman who can come up when the NHL defencemen go down to injury.
He’s a forward.
You know nothing Jon Snow.
Petrell resigned to a one year deal. No idea on money. Depth role player for cheap hopefully.
I am surprised they signed petrell
As long as the term and money is low, there’s nothing wrong with this signing. A fourth liner that can actually play a little. Maybe after the “adjustment” year that imports have, he’ll bring a little more offense.
…But still no Smyth signing….
Ribs,
At this point I’d cut bait with Smyth and try to get Frolik from Chicago. They need salary cap space and I’d think(hope) you could get him for a Peckham and Pick type of package.
Then move Jones and a pick to Buffalo for Sekaras. Instantly improved team.
Of course I have no idea if either of those deals are doable. The next two weeks will be fraying my nerves big time
http://twitter.com/mikeheika
DAL interested in Gagner?
It’s a crazy, crazy, world where someone as useless as Petrell gets an NHL contract but someone like Omark can’t.
Petrell would be a nothing player in the AHL. The fact that he has an NHL job is a disgrace.
Memo, to NHL general managers: you don’t have to have a fourth line. It is possible to field four good lines. You don’t have to go out of your way to have a line of useless players that will never score. It’s the equivalent of a baseball team deciding that they’ll only play seven innings while their opponents get to play nine. A losing proposition.
Depth wins. The Oilers just willfully through a way a roster spot on a player that provides nothing. Forwards that can’t score are useless. Useless. I hate this move so much I’m losing the ability to form sentences.
These people are retarded. New Jersey rode a fourth line that could score all the way to the finals and they do this bullshit.. There is no upside to this move. None. The Oilers are never, ever, going to win. Ever.
I like the signing if it’s one year for less then $.800k. He can be sent down, he can kill penalties and he can hit and play defense. exactly what a 4th liner needs to do. He is Pisani light, with more physicality. He is a good 12-13 forward who can play bottom 6, play physical and we can always use more Finns. Add Harsky to the other side of the 4th line and we have a nasty crash and bang 4th line who may chip in a bit offensively.
I wonder if this means Jones is a goner, especially if they plan on playing MPS in the big club this year.
Petrell wasn’t that bad last year. He has a pretty good skillset (speed, size, pk ability) to be a solid 4th line player and he will likely be much better next season with a year experience in north america.
Maybe they’ll give us Souray and we’ll get that top 4 d-man we need?
Oops.
Traktor,
He’ll be especially better if he doesn’t have to play with the black hole Eric Belanger. Kurri would have looked bad with Eric in the middle.
I’m not all that sure what DAL would have that EDM wants in exchange for Gagner?
Larsen? Oleksiak? 13th OV?
Agreed.
Belanger might have something left in the thank and could rebound with another club but its painfully obvious that he isn’t a good fit with Edmonton. He has no chemistry with any of his linemates and doubt that changes next year.
I’m sure he is a nice fellow but he should be moved.
Larsen could be ready to break out.
Then again, so could Gagner.
sliderule,
It’s a fair argument, but I think that in the last few years, going with Stu’s picks has worked out well. I’d rather have an offensive All-Star in Eberle over Carlson (and Klefbom over McKenzie’s consensus (and eventual Burke draft pick): Biggs which was left off your list of 2011 draftees).
It just looks to me like there’s a bit of a disconnect from when Prendergast was fired to the Oilers results vs consensus after MBS was promoted.
if we were talking the dead zone eras of the Oilers drafts in the 90s to 07 I would be all for your method, believe me.
Knowing absolutely nothing about any other draftable player than Yaks, how about Oilers just pick Lukas Sutter in the 2nd round? Since when has a Sutter never delivered the goods?
This is from Dregers TSN column this morning:
The Oilers remain focused on bolstering their blue line and would like to add two young, Top 4 defencemen this offseason. And the first pick overall is only in play for those teams willing to part with a top blueliner.
If the Nashville Predators re-sign Ryan Suter, can they afford to keep Suter, Shea Weber and Ryan Ellis long term? The Oilers would have keen interest in Ellis or Weber and will also be among the most aggressive clubs in pursuit of soon-to-be college free agent Justin Schultz.
Schultz will have multiple offers and will be able to choose where he intends to make his debut. However, Edmonton makes sense given the opportunity to grow with a talented young core while playing big minutes and in all key offensive situations.
The Oilers are also looking for help in goal, though with Nikolai Khabibulin under contract for another year, the need isn’t as pressing as it is on defense.
So basically we are in on Shultz, we still like Ellis (as per his draft year), we need 2 DMen (maybe they’ll listen to Dreger since they haven’t listened to all of us for the last few years) and we’d like a better goalie but are OK with Bulin (puke),
As for LT’s/Blue Bullet’s post, I’ll be interested to see where all of the D-men shake out in 5 years time. He ranks Dumba so high, but my read is that he could be a total feast or famine player. McKenzie’s rankings show Dumba listed as 6′ 183, but its hard to imagine a player that small throwing the body around against teams that AREN’T the Oilers.
Then again, the lesson of Nuge last season showed me that size doesn’t tell the whole story. Some of these smaller guys are built like brick shithouses and others (Nuge) are so slippery you can’t get a handle on them and it takes an awkward fall into the boards to injure them.
What would Dumba’s comparable be? Because I just keep thinking of MA Bergeron (in terms of size) and that’s not a top two pick.
hunter1909,
I instantly thought of Brett Sutter, but he’s a 6th round pick, so he covered the bet. So I guess you’re right, they are consistent for expectations.
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=73439
Voxwah
In fairness Kurri would have been held to 30-35 goals a season playing wing with Belanger. Also Kurri, who would never complain about anything, would be in Sather/Lowe’s office bitching about playing with Belanger 3 times a day
I still think that the biggest problem the 2-way forwards had was related to the weak defence they were playing in front of. Every forward who has defensive sensibilities struggled this year.
More on the Sutter family… Link
I am trying to figure out WTF I was thinking when I typed that this morning and for the life of me, I can’t. Anyway, I think Petrell is a fine AHL/NHL callup type player.
To be fair, last year he probably could have played defence on the Oilers blue line and done just fine. It was not exactly a competitive environment.
Questions for the brain trust on here…
1. would you say MacT is in Gagner’s corner? Or would he push to move him out for a more ‘useful’ piece(s)?
2. It was suggested on one of TSN’s draft preview week pieces that Ottawa would be looking to move a goalie. How ’bout Robin Lehner as Dubnyk’s backup? Or, if there’s a trade with TO, Jonas Gustavsson?
Aron S
I left Klefbom out because I wanted to use picks that have had a chance to play.McNeil was Mckenzies choice and I like Klefbom a whole bunch more.
We will see this draft whether the oil have learned their lessons from the past.If they pick Murray I won’t agree with it but I could see them thinking overall this is their best choice.
If they pick Reinhart at number one they have gone down the old smartest guy in the room route.
On the other hand, LA (the winning team) had a 4th line of Nolan – Fraser – King. And Lombardi wouldn’t touch a player like Omark with a 10 ft pole.
I think I like this signing if for no other reason that its causing CO to go on his usual rant about how HE is the smartest person in the room.
Its hardly earth shattering but if Petrell is used as depth and his presence keeps guys down in the AHL longer (MPS, Pitlick) then its fine. A new coach might find something more too.
CO, a serious question (or two): Do you think that Omark would accept a role on the 4th line? I don’t get the impression he would. Assuming they draft Yakupov and sign Smyth, who would you chop from the top 9 to fit him in?
It’s obvious Omark and Renney both had issues with each other. With Renney gone, could Omark get another chance? Especially if Krueger gets the coaching gig?
He is an RFA, so maybe it’s better to give him a shot on a cheap one year, <$1M qualified one-way deal than punt him now for at best a 4th round pick.
Also, IMO he'd re-sign here if 1) he'd not be assigned to the AHL, 2) he'd play with no BS icetime/pressbox games by the head coach. To answer Ducey's question, a 4th line role would accomplish that.
Then in February the Oilers could assess properly if he's a piece going forward or trade him for more than the garbage they'd get back for him now.
fuck. Harding signs multi year deal with Wild as per Mirtle. Damn, I would have liked to have him compete with Dubnyk.
Great. Now not only are the decent FA defensemen being re-signed, the second tier forwards getting massive cash pushing Gagner’s re-up sky high, and now the goalie options are getting re-signed.
Tambellini has his work cut out this summer…
Top 10 PK centers last year:
DAINIUS ZUBRUS 3.4M
MIKE RICHARDS 5.75M
MATT CULLEN 3.5M
JESSE WINCHESTER UFA
RYAN KESLER 5M
BRIAN BOYLE 1.7M
JORDAN STAAL 4.0M
TOMAS PLEKANEC 5.0M
JAY MCCLEMENT UFA
ERIC BELANGER 1.75M
Are you guys on …………….. PK from 29th to 14th
And what about top10 PK wingers:
BRIAN GIONTA 5M
MATHIEU DARCHE UFA
MATT COOKE 1.8M
RADEK DVORAK UFA
KASPARS DAUGAVINS RFA
CRAIG ADAMS 0.675M
DANIEL WINNIK UFA
ANDREW MILLER 0.825M
PASCA LDUPUIS 1.5M
RYAN JONES 1.5M
Our 4th line needs another strong Pk good on the face off center. with belanger on the wing as the second option.
Belanger-XXX-Jones.
So choices that would be an upgrade over Horcoff were Ev play does not eliminate PK efect.
Winchester, 1.61EVP/60 in a 1.30 situatuion 4th comp
Gaustad 1.45 in a .70 situation 1st Comp
I want Belanger/Horc/Gaustad rotating on :
1. EV dzone draws
2. As PK pairs
3. Ev center between Hall – XXX- Yak/Rieder
Harding 3 years, $1.9 mill per.
Only good thing about this deal is that it is a nice comparable for Dubnyk, so maybe we get him on a 3 year $2 mill or so per year deal.
Why do you want to move Belanger to the wing? He’s most effective for winning draws….
XXX-RNH-Yak/Rieder Soft oh so soft
hall-Horc/Gaustad/Belanger-Eberle 1 st comp offensive to 3nd comp all zone
XXX-gagner-hemsky 2nd -3rd comp
Belanger-gaustad-Jones 1st D zone 4th all
Horcof-Gaustad-Jones 1st D zone 4th all
horcoff-Belanger-Jones 1st D zone 4th all
Eklund is dreaming Burke could assemble another draft pair by sending his lottery pick elsewhere:
“I keep hearing more and more how the Leafs may trade Gardiner to Edmonton to get Yakupov and then Schultz would sign with Gardiner in Edmonton. Meanwhile..the Leafs would trade up in the draft to get Yakupov’s Russian line-mate from Sarnia”
Ducey,
I wouldn’t have a “fourth” line at all. The job of every line is the same: score more goals than you give up. The only difference between the fourth line and the first line is that the guys on the fourth line are all paid near the minimum. They aren’t as good but their job isn’t any different. Finding these guys shouldn’t be that hard. There are more NHL quality players out there than there are NHL jobs. The problem with Petrell is that he isn’t one of these guys. He doesn’t provide depth, rather if he is on your roster it is indicative of an extreme lack of depth.
And yes, I think Omark would accept 5-10 minutes a night. It sure beats no minutes a night. Omark isn’t the point. The point is that there are probably 25-50 guys in the AHL better than Petrell.
Keeping and playing a guy Petrell over Omark says much of what you need to know about the way this team is run.
Would love nothing more than for this rumour to be true, but I can’t see it happening unless Burke thinks Colborne is the answer for the big C the Leafs so desperately need. Granted every team will be coveting Yakupov at the moment, but with Kessel, Kulemin, the reemergence of Lupul, etc. on the wing, I would think the Leaf’s biggest needs are still at C and G.
Suspect it’s more likely that Burke will land Luongo than Yakupov.
Moosemess,
Eklund’s wet dream is an underpay. Gardiner for Yakupov straight up. Burke swaps his lottery pick with a third team to grab the Centre Galchenyuk.
Stauffer saying today that by Monday the Oilers will have found one top 4 dman, via trade.
He said Pittsburgh wants to trade two of their dmen. I wonder if Paul Martin is available for a 3rd or 4th round draft pick?
Also he said that Boumeester is available for a late first early second round pick. I wonder if the Oilers would do that?
I would do either of the above, fwiw.
Would Gardiner, Colborne, and guaranteeing Schultz be enough to make up for Yakupov? I suspect the Oilers would think so.
According to the Ottawa Sun:
“The Senators have apparently made a strong pitch for Rick Nash.
Multiple solid sources have confirmed rumblings of Ottawa’s interest, saying GM Bryan Murray has indeed talked with the Columbus Blue Jackets about acquiring the two-time 40-goal scorer.
One insider went a step further by telling Sun Media the players the Senators proposed to send back in the deal for the left winger, a scenario confirmed by another source.
For the just-turned 28-year-old Nash, it appears the Senators are prepared to trade 2011 first-round pick Mika Zibanejad, winger Nick Foligno and goalie Ben Bishop.”
Jay Bouw is a very underappreciated blueliner in Calgary. Flames fans hate him. Yet, to my eye, he looks solid. Great size, speed, good stick. He calms the back end for them. He and Regher used to be a force before Regher’s trade and gave them a great home record for a couple of years where the coach could put those two out against any top line in the league.
I would trade pick #32 for him. He has a biggish contract, but not overly considering average blueliners are now getting 4million. I think the value is there.
It looks like the advanced stats are mixed though.
I’d trade #32 for Bouwmeester. He’s overpaid by quite a bit but he’s only signed for two more years. The overpay salary wise only matters if the Oilers are capped out and that’s not likely to happen in the immediate future. The opportunity cost is you only get to make one of these kinds of vulture moves.
His advanced numbers were mediocre. He was pushing the sled uphill against zone starts and competition but he didn’t beat the competition. I wouldn’t count on him being a top pairing D but if he was a top pairing D he’d cost a lot more to get. It’s a risk but there is upside to the move. A lot more upside to this move than the other scenarios I’ve been hearing about.
Add Bouwmeester and Schultz, draft Yakupov, and the Oilers might make the playoffs in the next two years.
If I’m Howson I like that deal, but he likely won’t given what he supposedly turned down from the NYR.
I’d do those trades too, and I’ve always like Mihalek.
Martin has a NMC, whereas Mihalek has limited NTC where he can name 8 teams he’d refuse a trade to. Wonder if EDM makes his list.
He was a beast in PHX. Excellent 1LD shutdown type.
J-Bo is also a very, very good Dman, who is paid about $2.2MM too much per year, but that ends in two years so the OIlers could handle it. If they don’t have to give up much, then 1 LD could be taken care of this way for a couple years and maybe he signs a cap friendly extension.
I think the dark horse is Tyutin. 6 more years at 4.5MM. A little long and a little much, and he’s 29 in July. Wouldn’t cost much to get I don’t think.
Any of Martin/Mihalek, J-Bo or Tyutin would be the best Oiler Dman as soon as they put on the jersey.
A Dcops of:
Tyutin/J-bo/Mihalek – Petry
Smid – Justin Shultz
Whitney/Sutton – Nick Shultz
Would be an actual NHL Dcorps
If Whitney is truly done, then Sutton can play more.
If J.Shultz is indeed better than Gardiner he should be ok on the 2nd pairing, but can start on the 3rd if need be.
Oilers might have some balance?
Lordy.
If all this comes true, it would be a new day.
Just need a couple forwards, a goalie and BAM! meaningful games in March
I dunno
Think Oiler fans would put up Bouwmeester?
The guy’s softer than Gilbert, for gosh sakes.
Plus the Oilers would never get anyone to sign a value contract with that overpaid marshmallow on the roster!
Team Yakety Yak (don’t talk back)
Yeah, I do too. Ottawa may also have to throw in this year’s pick.
5.0 perhaps?
I thought you determined earlier that they are “never ever going to win. Ever”
Ducey,
If three good things happen in a row, I’ll change my tune. I was ecstatic with the Hemsky signing and then they went away and traded away Tom Gilbert. Two good moves in a row would blow me away. Three, would be unprecedented.
I like Tyutin more than Bouwmeester as a player. However, if they don’t spend the $2M savings somewhere else, I’d rather have the shorter contract. But really, I’d be happy with either of them.
ashley,
It looks like the advanced stats are mixed though.
CAL went power v power with Iginla, Joikinen and GlennX up front with J-Bo and Butler on the back end.
The only one of those 5 who’s fancy stats are good from last year is Butler, but he played 300 less minutes than J-Bo.
Looks like it didn’t work out for them PvP, and J-Bo certainly owns his part of that.
v.4.1(CM)
I guarantee he’d be a whipping boy within 20 games.
EDM fans hate players with big contracts and they hate players who don’t put themselves out of the play with THUNDEROUS BODY CHECKS!!!!!!MOMG!!!!!BBQ!!!!!!
Don’t know if Bouwmeester will play here. He’s always been resistant to the idea in the past, although he’s older and more mature now, so maybe it doesn’t matter so much.
Woodguy,
Whatchoo talking about, WG?? The msm calls Edm a sophisticated hockey market!!
I do recall him maiming MPS at Rexall in a nothing March game a couple of years ago with just such a check. Fair point though, he would get eaten alive. He’s more Petry than Peckham.
The stats say that maybe he’s not as good as he looks, but on the other hand, at age 28, maybe he’s still getting better.
Nonethless, trading a Pitlick-range pick (ie someone who has a good probability of never having a significant impact on an NHL team) doesn’t seem very expensive for a real NHL defenseman, and one with good tools at that.
The Flames seem really into acquiring draft picks since Feaster took over. Anything else on that roster worth pillaging?
Woodguy,
Don’t get ahead of yourself Woodguy. Baby steps. Meaningful games in February would be a good start.
Would you trade one of Musil, Marincin or Gernat plus ANA #2 in 2013 for Jay Bo?
Think he would be best Oiler D man immediately
7 years $6.5 mill for Karlsson. Ouch. Hope he doesn’t slide back. So much for the 2nd contract being mid range, thanks Kevin Lowe! Man I hate Burke.
The thing with JBo, is he may be available at that 2nd round level to 28 teams except Edmonton and Vancouver, just because of the rivalry.
If Calgary would do it and he would come here, like has been said, he is overpaid but could come in and be a very good minute muncher.
Who knows, with the forwards the Oilers have, maybe his offense would improve too.
I have a hard time believing those f*cks down in Calgary would trade JBo to the Oilers. These are the same guys that are apparently preventing EDM from interviewing their fired coach.
I wouldn’t trade Marincin. One of the the other two would be ok.
Bobby Ryan is apparently on the trading block – per TSN
Leaves fans must be losing their minds. Not only will they bring in Luongo, Nash and Yakupov, they can have Bob Ryan too!
Edmonton fans don’t like shitty players on bad contracts (Horcoff).
JayBo is a good player.
Edmonton fans don’t like role players that don’t play like role players.
At least the knowledgeable ones don’t.
I can tell you are not a season ticket holder.
They hate everyone who isn’t:
1) Young
2) Have long hair
3) Delivers THUNDEROUS HITS!!!
I remember everyone shit talking Paul Coffey.
I listened to them shit talk Lubo.
Its not an educated crowd in terms of hockey worth, imo.
I would like to chime in on the Gardiner deal. I know there is a big difference between “Saw him good” and stats, but when the Marlies were in town here playing the Heat in the playoffs, because of the hype around him plus the link to Schultz, when Gardiner was on the ice, I only watched him.
I was very underwhelmed; perhaps due to the hype around him. He is a good puck mover much like Petry and skates well, but he would play almost entire PP, which was good, but rarely, and almost never, seemed to be on the ice for a defensive zone faceoff or PK. Any key defensive moment in the game would also co-inside with his ass being on the bench.
I know he is still a kid playing in a hard league ruled by men, but I expected more. I would love nothing more than to have 3 good young D men, which seems most likely if we trade with BB. Gardiner, Schultz and 5 pick…reinhart?
I just got a Hall jersey from my almost 2 year old for Father’s day…I want more offence to help burden the load.
I rarely post, but log in far too many times a day to read both the posts and comments. SO, thanks to all the regulars who participate.
Bouwmeester is from Edmonton, he finished building a monster house here a couple years ago. He continues to want to live here in the summer. Since he has a NTC and he is playing on Calgary right now (who would probably never trade him to Edm anyway) he is not going to be an Oiler any time soon. From what I understand he believes he is in the perfect spot in Calgary, close to home and no matter how good or bad his play is he is a relative unknown in Edmonton during the summer.
No use in even discussing it in my opinion.
Nah..I live in Calgary.
Gardiner did play highly protected minutes this year in both the NHL and AHL. The AHL Marlies had better defensive D, so I don’t blame Eakins. He kept Gardiner away from Hartikainen and Paajarvi’s line the whole series.
Smid, Schultz, the D coming via trade or UFA, Marincin, Klefbom, Teubert, Musil are the guys the Oilers are planning to do the defensive heavy lifting.