DRAFT WEEK POST #13: SLIP KID (IT’S A HARD, HARD WORLD)

 

I had a quick chat with Taylor Fedun at the Team 1260 Golf Tournament yesterday. He’s had a long comeback and will need to do more work but he’s excited for the oppotunity.

Fedun told me he was well looked after by the organization and that everyone is pleased with the progress. Then he stepped up to the tee and ripped a drive up the fairway. Friggin’ athletes.

—-

Two Oilers are up for awards tonight, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins for Calder and Jordan Eberle for the Byng. I don’t want to dash hopes and certainly will cheer for both men, but the NHL awards have been a vast wasteland for the Oilers since the Stanley years. If the NHL wasn’t going to give Fernando Pisani an award for coming back after what he went through, we should expect Jack Diddly tonight.

—-

Dean Millard and Guy Flaming did their big draft preview show on Team 1260 last night. Millard said (as he has before) that his sources tell him that the Oiler scouts are all over Ryan Murray, Kevin Lowe is strong on Griffin Reinhart and Steve Tambellini is trusting his scouts to give him the right order.

Heaven knows where Nail Yakupov is in the mix.

Oilers have taken great pains to say they’re keeping the pick, nothing is brewing and that they would have to be heavily overpaid to move down. If they follow their own past the club will take a forward #1 (Nail Yakupov) and then grab a defender (Dalton Thrower?) with their second round pick.

The Oilers have two  trains rolling this summer: addressing amateur need with the last good draft pick (please, lord) on one track and then badly needing to shore up areas of the big league roster on the other track.

I felt going in that the Oilers needed two NHL defensemen, a rational option in goal and a solid 2-way winger in the Pisani/Dvorak role. The signing of Lennart Petrell does not solve the Pisani issue, so the club still hasn’t addresses any legit need for 12-13.

I do this every summer, ususally wait until the week of free agency but might as well do it this week with the possibility of draft week trades so high. Here are the offseason needs for the Edmonton Oilers:

  1. A coach who is clearly an upgrade on Tom Renney.
  2. A top pairing defenseman capable of playing the toughs and being deployed in all three disciplines.
  3. A young, NHL ready defender who can push the other candidates and perhaps serve as “Whitney” insurance.
  4. A reasonable goaltending option for the Khabibulin free fall.
  5. A Pisani 2.0 for the 3line, a mentor and a checker who can score 15 goals while turning Lander, Paajarvi and Hartikainen into Stoll and Torres 2.0
  6. Ryan Smyth or similar.

No disrespect to Lennart Petrell, but we’re not off to a rocking start.

There were some pretty knowledgable media people at the golf course yesterday and I came away with the impression the Oilers are the favorite in the Justin Schultz sweepstakes. I have no idea if its true, but expectations are high. Maybe that changes their draft board?

If the Oilers do trade Sam Gagner to Carolina for the #8 pick (which has  been rumored on the Al Gore) then I think the club should select C Milhail Grigorenko. If we can agree that Yakupov is the most talented offensive player available (and he is) then Grigorenko would represent top value at about #4 or so. McKenzie has him at #12, this guy could be a steal based on what we know.

I still have no idea why he’s slipping.

 

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93 Responses to "DRAFT WEEK POST #13: SLIP KID (IT’S A HARD, HARD WORLD)"

  1. sliderule says:

    Millard has it right as to how the scouts feel about Murray.

    I think that unless Murray performs way better than most young D he could be on his way out of town in three years.The fans will be just brutal with him a la Poti.

    If he is the best player in seven years it will be with some other team.

  2. mustang says:

    I think we are ok with dman for development, I agree LT what we need is a top 2 dman and Schultz, and use our first round pick on a forward. I’m pro Yakupov for first overall, and wouldn’t mind Gally if we could trade down to get him. I like this kid. Looking at the numbers Yak put up before he got hurt, playing without Gally, I’m guessing Yak was driving the bus in Sarnia.

  3. gcw_rocks says:

    If the Oilers trade Gagner for a pick, then we know the rebuild will go on forever.

    I have no problem if the Oilers trade Gagner (I view him as an average second line centre), but at this point in the rebuild it had better be for a real NHL player.

    Want to trade him for Evander Kane? Sure. Want to trade him for Bogosian? Ok. Want to trade him for Despres or Harmonic? Lets discuss. Want to trade him for a draft pick? No thanks.

  4. Destroyko says:

    If the eighth pick comes up and Grigorenko is on the board, I’d be fine with trading Gagner for it. I think it would be an upgrade. I would abhor the thought of trading him to pick Reinhart, Reilly or Dumba. Defensemen and sundials and uncertainty and whatnot.

  5. WheresYourTowel says:

    Totally agree with not dealing Gagner for picks.

    Of course, we’re not really so deep at C that we can afford to lose him. Filling a hole by making a hole? No thanks.

  6. Woodguy says:

    I predict that the by July 2nd the Oilers will have done 2 good things and 2 not so good things.

  7. justDOit says:

    It’s been five long years, since I’ve… sorry – Colin James stuck in my head.

    It’s been five years for Gags to get to the level he’s at now, and he was less than 0.4 ppg down the stretch (after ‘the game’), while playing some pretty big minutes. (I read this elsewhere, so please shout out if it’s incorrect).

    So the fear in trading Gagner for any pick is a valid one, but I think Grigs stands a good chance to be an upgrade in one season and could probably play next season. What I don’t understand, is why Carolina would want Gags over Grigs when it comes to their #8 pick.

    I still believe that the talented, 6’3″ Russian centerman will be gone before the #8 pick.

  8. justDOit says:

    Wow. Karlsson gets $6.5M/yr for 7 years. I guess having to sign a player like that is a good problem to have.

    And now Bobby Ryan is rumoured to be on the trading block again? The most promising defence prospect doesn’t want to sign in Ana, and now they’re going to trade a player like Ryan? What’s going on down there?

  9. Rondo says:

    So scouts rate Ryan Murray equivalence as a a Kevin Lowe or a Glen Wesley . Others rate him as a a Lidstrom.

    Yakupov as a Bure or OV. Some say franchise others don’t.

    Hard for a fan to get a handle on it.

    Personally if I compared Lidstrom to Bure , it would be an easy pick from Lidstrom

    I guess at the end of the day we deal with probability.

  10. justDOit says:

    Woodguy,

    are you really predicting this, or merely projecting it?

  11. Traktor says:

    Lowetide:

    Why do you think upgrading Edmonton’s wingers is more important than upgrading Edmonton’s centers?

    Even if Edmonton had better centers than wingers (not true) wouldn’t you agree that good centers can have a bigger impact on the game?

    In baseball you always build down the middle CF, SS, P, C. Hockey is the same. You don’t win without good goaltending and good centers.

  12. Traktor says:

    Rebuild or no rebuild refusing to trade Gagner for Morgan Rielly or Mikhail Grigorenko isn’t bright.

  13. Woodguy says:

    justDOit:
    Woodguy,

    are you really predicting this, or merely projecting it?

    Predicting.

    I think they will make 1 good FA signing, 1 decent trade, 1 meh trade and draft a Dman when Yak is staring them in the face.

  14. justDOit says:

    Woodguy,

    Ouch. I can only hope that you’re wrong about the Yak, and that maybe they gamble on getting Schultz rather than drafting for a dman with the top pick.

  15. Traktor says:

    Jeff Marek believes Edmonton has strong interest in Cody Franson.

    Do we have any Americans we can trade Burke besides Petry?

  16. Ducey says:

    The rumour I saw on TSN this AM is that CAR is now offering the #8 as part of a package with Faulk and Sutter to get Jordan Staal out of PIT.

    I don’t think we will know until after the 7th pick is made and teams see who is still on the board.

  17. fuzzy muppet says:

    Traktor,

    It’s just like the Oilers to trade for a bottom pairing defenseman and put him in their top four.

    So lets start debating…McKinnon or Jones??

  18. Ducey says:

    Traktor: Jeff Marek believes Edmonton has strong interest in Cody Franson.Do we have any Americans we can trade Burke besides Petry?

    VDV, Bigos and Chorney.

  19. Traktor says:

    fuzzy muppet:
    Traktor,

    It’s just like the Oilers to trade for a bottom pairing defenseman and put him in their top four.

    So lets start debating…McKinnon or Jones??

    I’m not sure he would even play in Edmonton’s top 4. He had the same point total as Corey Potter in 5 less games and he has never been known as a great defender. He doesn’t really use his size to his advantage either. He would likely be an upgrade on Potter though.

    I’ll take the kid from Sid’s home town.

  20. Traktor says:

    Ducey: VDV, Bigos and Chorney.

    Bigos is American AND has truculence.

    hmmm

  21. Captain Obvious says:

    Here is my dream offseason:

    Trade second round pick for Bouwmeester
    Trade second and third round pick for Tyutin

    I think these guys could be had for picks because their contracts aren’t great. Assuming these deals then I would:

    Trade Gagner for #8 pick and draft Grigorenko. If Grigorenko is gone I take Morgan Reilly. Gagner needs a raise and I just gave his money to Tyutin and Bouwmeester. Smyth probably isn’t resigned either.

    Draft Yakupov.

    Finally, I’d sign this year’s version of Belanger or Vern Fiddler and hope it works out more like Fiddler and less like Belanger. Say, Dominic Moore. Trade Belanger for anything if I get Grigorenko, keep him if I get Reilly.

    The Oilers would be better at every position and be positioned to make a run at the playoffs in the immediate future while still being set up for the long term.

    I think all of those moves are feasible on their own. Tell me, what’s wrong with the plan?

  22. Ribs says:

    Ducey:
    The rumour I saw on TSN this AM is that CAR is now offering the #8 as part of a package with Faulk and Sutter to get Jordan Staal out of PIT.

    I don’t think we will know until after the 7th pick is made and teams see who is still on the board.

    Wasn’t Lebrun stating that Carolina would not move Faulk, as they see him as a franchise defenseman?

  23. rickithebear says:

    justDOit: What I don’t understand, is why Carolina would want Gags over Grigs when it comes to their #8 pick.

    Young Mr. Gagner. has had the 21st best 18-22 start as a center in the modern era.
    Just under thorton, Lecavalier
    better than marleau and J. stall for PPG.
    Look at who those players had as linemates during that period of time.

    Gagner has played with alot of 3′s and 4′s during that time.
    During the play with 3′s and 4′s he has steadily improved the level of competition he can play against.

    When he did play with penner, hemsky, hall, eberle he was .875 PPG
    .
    Over at copper and blue they showed the salary range for his production of player.

    It is the ideal time to lock up gagner @ 3.25-3.5M for the next 5 years.
    Role him against lower 2nd and thirds in all zones with hemsky on his right side.
    Get 55-65 pts from him.

    we send him away and he will play top 6 and get 55-70 points on another team.

  24. bookje says:

    LT – Your faith in the NHL awards system shines through with this post. Two Oilers up for an award would normally merit a dedicated post discussing the liklihood of winning, debating the merits of the voting system, etc.

    Nope – just a mention. Oh Ye of little Faith.

    I look forward to the Oilers winning both awards!

    If they don’t, I am going rip down all of my Gary Bettman posters from my wall and burn them.

  25. jonrmcleod says:

    Traktor,

    Don’t you mean jonrmcleod’s home town?

  26. Mr DeBakey says:

    Rebuild or no rebuild refusing to trade Gagner for Morgan Rielly or Mikhail Grigorenko isn’t bright.
    I looked at the TSN website for the first time in a bit – saw the Button/McGuire Mock Draft.
    Those two brainiacs let Grigorenko fall to 17th. Its like they were playing chicken.

    Other gems include, McGuire mentioning two player’s “bloodlines” – Reinhart & Matteau. Really? That’s a consideration? How many NHL goals did Walter Gretzky pot? McGuire is never going to get an NHL GM job if he doesn’t pick up his sox.
    Button chose Brady Skeji 23rd overall for the Panthers. Why, you ask? Because “The Hawks are loaded with forwards, Skeji is big defenceman who can skate”

    Finally, Mackenzie’s piece on his Top-30 Draft List noted that Yakupov’s stock had fallen somewhat because he “first suffered a knee injury at the World Junior Championship and later sustained a mild shoulder separation and was only average to below average when he returned, especially in Sarnia’s first-round playoff loss.”
    This condition is known as Logan Couture Syndrome.

    Team Yakety Yak (don’t talk back)

  27. Bar_Qu says:

    I’m pulling for Fedun to make everyone amazed how he can challenge for a spot 1 yr on from that injury. Kid is a gamer with an engineering degree. Gotta have him on defense if he can play.

    I mentionned this before, but it looks like Stempniak will not be in Cowtown next season, and he would be perfect for the Pisani role in Edm. I hope he gets a long look.

    And unfortunately I think WG is right in his prediction. Ol’ Will wrote it right about the Oilers when he said
    Men at some time are masters of their fates:
    The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars,
    But in ourselves, that we are underlings.

    They pick their fate every year.

  28. TheOtherJohn says:

    Woodguy: I predict that the by July 2nd the Oilers will have done 2 good things and 2 not so good things.

    If your prediction is correct MacT is already earning his money as he has improved decision making from 3 not so good things and 1 good thing. Now we can only pray that the not so good things this year are on what type of fabric softener to use on uniforms as opposed player selection/trades/free agency

  29. Jordan says:

    If we can agree that Yakupov is the most talented offensive player available (and he is) then Grigorenko would represent top value at about #4 or so. McKenzie has him at #12, this guy could be a steal based on what we know.

    I still have no idea why he’s slipping.

    He’s got an ugly girlfriend – shows a lack of confidence, and an inability to close well in the big leagues.

    That’s why everyone like Yak – he’s got two hot girlfriends – one for each side of the Atlantic. Confidence, and closes.

  30. fuzzy muppet says:

    Captain Obvious:
    Here is my dream offseason:

    Trade second round pick for Bouwmeester
    Trade second and third round pick for Tyutin

    I think these guys could be had for picks because their contracts aren’t great.Assuming these deals then I would:

    Trade Gagner for #8 pick and draft Grigorenko.If Grigorenko is gone I take Morgan Reilly.Gagner needs a raise and I just gave his money to Tyutin and Bouwmeester.Smyth probably isn’t resigned either.

    Draft Yakupov.

    Finally, I’d sign this year’s version of Belanger or Vern Fiddler and hope it works out more like Fiddler and less like Belanger.Say, Dominic Moore.Trade Belanger for anything if I get Grigorenko, keep him if I get Reilly.

    The Oilers would be better at every position and be positioned to make a run at the playoffs in the immediate future while still being set up for the long term.

    I think all of those moves are feasible on their own.Tell me, what’s wrong with the plan?

    I agree that these moves are feasible except moving Gagner for a pick. It doesn’t matter who they take. If they move Gagner, an established, young NHL player, for a player who might be NHLer one day, it’s a step back and sends a signal to the team that they are in perpetual rebuild mode.

    You trade gagner, your centers are RNH, Horcoff Belanger and VDV. Hello lottery!

    Is Gagner an ideal #2 center??? NO. Is he a bad player?? NO He’s 22 years old and regardless of his stagnating point totals, is improving yearly in competition and defense.

    You ONLY move Gagner if an established NHL Center with size that can handle a top 6 role is ready to be plugged in his place. Otherwise, they’re just spinning their wheels and more losing in on the way

  31. Traktor says:

    rickithebear: Young Mr. Gagner. hashad the 21st best 18-22 start as a centerin the modern era.better than marleau and J. stall for PPG.

    When math tells us that Gagner is better than Staal it tells us more about the flaws in math than how great a player Gagner is.

    If Gagner was a stock he would be trending the wrong way 4 years in a row. A smart GM would have sold already.

  32. Traktor says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Traktor,

    Don’t you mean jonrmcleod’s home town?

    lol

    I’ll take Seth Jones then jk

  33. Traktor says:

    Tyutin has 6 years on his contract. Not interested unless Horc is going back the other way.

  34. Captain Obvious says:

    fuzzy muppet,

    You have to pay Tyutin and Bouwmeester. I’m giving them Gagner’s money and gaining another player on an ELC. I think you are underestimating the value of ELC’s. You can’t pay everyone full value and Gagner is the one player who can bring something quality in return. So you aren’t trading Gagner for Grigorenko. You are trading Gagner + marginal picks for Tyutin and Grigorenko. That’s a great deal.

    You also missed where I signed Dominic Moore. Center will be a weakness but the wingers and the D will be top quality.

  35. eidy says:

    It is possible that grigorenko falls ala Cheraponov and if he falls to Buffalo at 12, I see if there is something that could be worked out. Something along the lines of gagner and 2nd and 4th 2013 (or more reluctantly this year) for 12 and Derek roy.

    We would have a year of roy and potentially the biggest sleeper, in the biggest area of need with grigorenko.

  36. fuzzy muppet says:

    Captain Obvious,

    I don’t think Gagner’s next contract is going to be a prohibitive on. If he wants a tonne of money, you then can look at moving him. You can’t honestly believe that Dominic Moore is a top 6 NHL center.

  37. Traktor says:

    A lot of people thought Horcoff was a good player when he signed his 6 year deal.

    Now he is ineffective and unmovable.

    Trading 2 draft picks for Tyutin without giving them back a bad contact is pretty damn stupid.

    You give 6 year deals to Hall, RNH, Eberle ect.. not to Tyutin.

  38. rickithebear says:

    Captain Obvious: hope it works out more like Fiddler and less like Belanger.

    Trading the 10th best PK center
    who’s 1.75M salary is not the 3-4M most of the top 10 has.is idiocy.

    Belanger’s 4th versus 4th in an extensive D zone role.
    He was just slightly below avg for that role.
    The player is not the black hole. The situation is.

  39. Captain Obvious says:

    fuzzy muppet,

    Moore is space filler. There is no requirement to have a #2 center. All you can do is get the best players you can and play them. My roster, taken as a whole is better than what the Oilers currently have, and also, I think better than any other scenario I’ve seen.

    If, in the short term Tyutin + Grigorenko is better than Gagner and I think it is, and if, iIn the long term Tyutin + Grigorenko is better than Gagner, and I think it is, then how do the Oilers lose this deal?

    Tractor, Tyutin’s contract isn’t good but the player is. It’s because the contract isn’t good that we are getting him for free.

  40. spoiler says:

    rickithebear: Trading the 10th best PK centerwho’s 1.75M salary is not the 3-4M most of the top 10 has.is idiocy.Belanger’s 4th versus 4th in an extensive D zone role.He was just slightly below avg for that role.The player is not the black hole. The situation is.

    Ricki, the rumour is that Belanger has asked for a trade. We know from Oil Change that he was promised a 3rd line role with the Oilers, which did not materialize when Nuge made the big squad out of camp. He also had a horrible year and perhaps would like a fresh start somewhere else.

    I think most of the Belanger trade speculations are stemming from that rumour. If he doesn’twant to play here, or is unhappy, you pretty much have to move him, despite his stats.

    Moore probably won’t come here, considering his family situation, but someone like that (Betts etc) would be an adequate replacement for Belanger’s FO and PK skills.

  41. Traktor says:

    Captain Obvious:
    fuzzy muppet,

    Tractor, Tyutin’s contract isn’t good but the player is.It’s because the contract isn’t good that we are getting him for free.

    You aren’t getting him for free.. you are giving up two draft picks for him and giving up a lot of flexibility. Common sense tells us we could get another player for 2 picks and not have to take on a 6 year deal.

    Horcoff was good when he signed his deal (probably better than Tyutin) and look how that turned out. I don’t think its unreasonable to hold off on 6 year deals unless locking up stars like Hall and Eberle.

    I like the JBo idea but taking on Tyutin without giving them Horcoff ++ is just dumb.

  42. jonrmcleod says:

    Traktor,

    It’s always about getting rid of Horcoff, isn’t it?

  43. uni says:

    I have squee worthy moments thinking of the Oilers grabbing both Yakupov and Grigorenko in this draft. 2 Russians? Never happen. Don’t think trading Gagner right now makes any sense, but other than him or Hemsky going, I can’t see Carolina biting.

    I suppose there’s always a chance they’d take a package with a few of MPS, Lander, Omark, Marincin, Musil, Gernat, Hamilton, Pitlick, 32 overall and another 2nd round pick, but I doubt it. Tambo manages to pull off a vaunted quantity for quality (though it’s a draft pick) to grab Grigorenko without being bent over backwards would go a long way to reassuring me that he knows what he’s doing (which I don’t think he does).

  44. Traktor says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Traktor,

    It’s always about getting rid of Horcoff, isn’t it?

    In this case its more about not wanting to commit 6 years to Tyutin without giving a bad contract back.

    I admit I would like to upgrade at center if possible.

    I think I’ve been consistent when it comes to my views on the center position and long-term contracts.

  45. CrazyCoach says:

    spoiler: Ricki, the rumour is that Belanger has asked for a trade. We know from Oil Change that he was promised a 3rd line role with the Oilers, which did not materialize when Nuge made the big squad out of camp. He also had a horrible year and perhaps would like a fresh start somewhere else.
    I think most of the Belanger trade speculations are stemming from that rumour. If he doesn’twant to play here, or is unhappy, you pretty much have to move him, despite his stats.

    Now who in their right mind would want him unless he came cheap?

    Why would you promise 3rd line minutes to a guy who has 4th line talent? I was never ever, for a second, even slightly impressed with Belanger in all the games I saw him play. He was as my friend Charles Barkley would say, “Turrible!”

    If he isn’t happy here, get rid of him. Nothing worse in a dressing room than a guy unhappy to be there.

    Key question is, what do you get for a borderline AHL player?

  46. Ducey says:

    Captain Obvious,

    You probably won’t be able to trade for JBo. He has a NTC. After his less than hospitable stay in Cowgary, I would think he would want to go somewhere more apathetic like FLA and less like hockey mad Alberta.

  47. Woodguy says:

    Mirtle tweeted that Grig’s stock is dropping as there are serious concerns he’ll never play in the NHL, but sign in the KHL next year.

    Not sure who owns his KHL rights.

  48. misfit says:

    1. I like Kreuger as an option, but my gut tells me Cooper is the guy they want (who I’d also be happy with). I don’t know how much MacT is involved in the decision, but Cooper seems to best fit the description MacT outlined after being hired.

    2. I’m sure they’ll make calls to Suter, but I’m hearing they’re showing interest in Franson and the Foster/Barker aquistions the past two years tell me that if they get him, they’ll be happy with the D and not look for something better. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t believe Franson is a top 4 guy in the slightest, but he fits the Oiler brass MO of recent years.

    3. Schultz is obviously a target of theirs and would perfectly fit your description. With Klefbom staying in Sweeden, Marincin/Musil/Gernat still years away, and not much in the way of quality youth in OKC, Teubert may be the best bet. I don’t see them going out and trading for a prospect defenseman, but drafting Murray at #1 is still a real possibility.

    4. Not going to happen. The team loves Khabi and with only one year left on his deal, I see them riding it out with him as Dubnyk’s backup.

    5. I wouldn’t count on anything happening on this front. In Tambellini’s mind, they have this guy already in Ryan Jones.

    6. I can’t see them not re-signing Smyth even if it doesn’t happen until after July 1.

  49. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: Mirtle tweeted that Grig’s stock is dropping as there are serious concerns he’ll never play in the NHL, but sign in the KHL next year.Not sure who owns his KHL rights.

    CSKA Moskva, I believe.

  50. ashley says:

    Ducey:
    Captain Obvious,

    You probably won’t be able to trade for JBo.He has a NTC.After his less than hospitable stay in Cowgary, I would think he would want to go somewhere more apathetic like FLA and less like hockey mad Alberta.

    I think it would be just the opposite. His parents and sister live in Edmonton along with other family. He is very close with his family. Having met his sister, I know it’s a big deal for all of them when he comes up to play in Edmonton.

    I suspect he would jump at the chance to come home.

  51. spoiler says:

    ashley: I think it would be just the opposite. His parents and sister live in Edmonton along with other family. I have met him a few times, and his sister a few more. He is very close with his family. I know it’s a big deal for all of them when he comes up to play in Edmonton. I suspect he would jump at the chance to come home.

    In the past he has expressed the exact opposite. But he was a younger man then. I’m sure his family would love him here, But JBo himself feared the pressure as a younger man.

  52. rickithebear says:

    For Woodguy:

    People who do not understand the comp/Zone start affect is the most important measure of defence and offence Gives clear result expectations for those roles.

    I thought on ice save% may be a better measure but do not know.
    when you look at teams d pairs.
    There is a variance per pair. so is it a reflection of competition, the defenceman or the goalie.
    leaning towards the shots type yeilded by the d pair.

    Here is the key!
    There are enough shots per d pair for the save% to work to the mean.
    So that variance from the mean.
    is it Quality of shot yielded? I think So.

    What startred my look was Corsi.
    And Corsi versus zone start.
    Corsi is a fly on a rhino.

    For Corsi:
    Basically there is a variance of 2 shots per game relative to the mean w/ 1 std Dev.
    Basically 2/30 =6.6666666%
    Shooting ability there is a 2% variance in the 11% mean. 2/11 = 18.18%
    So basically we are talking about .06666666 x . 181818 =1.21%
    There was an average of 224 goals given up per team.
    224 X1.21% = 2.7G reflects a variance of 3 goals.
    so 6 goals best to worst For teams. A 2.6% affect.
    Now if your one of the worst does it get you to being outshot by 2-3 shots per game? Still minimal.

    Now zone start.
    Just looking at 1st competition offensive.
    A forward playing against first who has a zone start of less than 40% is expected to get .9EVP/60 as an average for that role.
    So 14EV minutes a game for 80 games 14 X 80 = 1120 min/season
    1120/60 = 18.6666 18.66666 x 0.90EVP/60 = 16.8EVP. He is roughly involved in 17 EVG for the season

    The points to goal ratio should be minimal in factor cause it works to the mean for the full data set. You want to micro manage go ahead.

    A forward playing against first who has a zone start of greater than 60% is expected to get 2.70EVP/60
    18.66666 x 2.70 = 50.4 he is involved in roughly 50 goals.

    So variance in zone start against the same comp can have a 33-34G per season difference.

    33g/224g = 14.7%

    Basically Zone start has a 5 to 6 times greater affect than the worst corsi variance

    1 standard deviation of data zone Zone is 30 times more important than corsi.

    As a detroit lions fan I often go to the blog Lions in Winter. there is a guy named Zach Snyder who makes use of Pro football focuses Radial Graph to look at a player.

    http://www.thelionsinwinter.com/2012/03/meet-jacob-lacey-new-detroit-lions.html

    We need them for players in the NHL:
    Each arm of the radial.
    1. Overall-sum of the player value.
    this can be measured against cap for best Cap hit affect.
    2. Ev offensive production relative to Comp and Zone start.
    3. Ev Ga relative to teamates/Comp and Zone start
    3. PP point production relative to Comp.
    4. PPGF relative to Comp
    5. PK Ga relative to Comp
    6. Penalties drawn Affect (goals Created)
    7. Penalties taken Affect.

    Radial graph becomes very simple from desjardins numbers.

    then there is a description.Player X;
    At even Faces XXX comp in XXX zone start X minutes /GM
    On the PK faces XXX Comp PP X:XX minutes/GM
    On the PP faces XXXPK Comp with XXX teamates For X;XX minutes/gm

    A graph for each player tells us who they are situationally. And thier overall value.

  53. CrazyCoach says:

    misfit: I like Kreuger as an option, but my gut tells me Cooper is the guy they want (who I’d also be happy with). I don’t know how much MacT is involved in the decision, but Cooper seems to best fit the description MacT outlined after being hired.

    I like Kreuger as well. Under his watch in Switzerland, those teams were downright scary to play against and had he stayed, I think they could have remained on a path to the medal rounds in the Olympics and World Championships. They have regressed since he left.

    I would offer the improved PP this year as testament to Kreuger’s skill set as a coach. I think they’d be foolish to let him go or at the very least give him more responsibility behind the bench.

  54. CrazyCoach says:

    Ricki,

    I as a coach have come to appreciate looking at zone starts a lot more. SO much so that I now have included it on my scouting sheets when I’m evaluating players.

  55. rickithebear says:

    Ps if you were to look at belanger’s Radial graph his ev arms would be just below average. His PK arm would be near top of the chart. His PK Goal affect would make him an above average player.

  56. CrazyCoach says:

    I would be most interested in the EV stuff as there are plenty of other players out there who could easily take his PK role. PK is easy to teach. EV responsibility? Not as easy.

  57. spoiler says:

    CrazyCoach: Now who in their right mind would want him unless he came cheap?Why would you promise 3rd line minutes to a guy who has 4th line talent? I was never ever, for a second, even slightly impressed with Belanger in all the games I saw him play. He was as my friend Charles Barkley would say, “Turrible!” If he isn’t happy here, get rid of him. Nothing worse in a dressing room than a guy unhappy to be there. Key question is, what do you get for a borderline AHL player?

    I think you may want to look at his career prior to playing with the Bataan Oilers.

  58. godot10 says:

    Things I think:

    1) Grigorenko was invited to Edmonton because the Oilers wanted to get their own blood tests to verify whether Grigorenko had mono.

    2) Bouwmeester didn’t want to come to Edmonton when he would have been coming as the “savior”. Now he would be coming as a role player, a fixer on the blue line, with only two years on his deal. The young guys take the spotlight now. Bouwmeester could be his laconic introverted self, and just concentrate on effective minute-eating on the blueline.

    3) Bobby Ryan is on the market because Anaheim wouldn’t mind getting into the Rick Nash sweepstakes, or to push up the price for Rick Nash.

    4) Belanger is okay in a 4th line role and PK.

    5) Carolina would undoubtedly prefer Jordan Staal, but they have a great need for someone like Gagner if they fail to get the 2nd Staal.

    6) If Gagner is traded, that means Yak will be drafted #1, and the Taylor Hall as centre experiment will be on.

    7) Still Team Murray.

  59. spoiler says:

    I see that the Magnificent Bastard, in Brownlee’s FTHM series as Galchenyuk ranked as a very good 2nd line centre.

    I don’t think that’s enough for the Oil to use a #1 overall on him.

  60. spoiler says:

    godot10: Things I think:
    6) If Gagner is traded, that means Yak will be drafted #1, and the Taylor Hall as centre experiment will be on.

    I pretty much say the same thing in my draft rankings.

  61. CrazyCoach says:

    spoiler: I think you may want to look at his career prior to playing with the Bataan Oilers.

    Is this akin to looking at Eric Cole before he became an Oiler?

    :-)

  62. Woodguy says:

    CrazyCoach: Is this akin to looking at Eric Cole before he became an Oiler?

    And after he left too, especially last season.

    Maybe it takes a year to shake of the horribleness. :)

  63. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear:
    For Woodguy:

    People who do not understand the comp/Zone start affect is the most importantmeasure of defence and offence Gives clear result expectations for those roles.

    I thought on ice save%may be a better measure but do not know.
    when you look at teams d pairs.
    There is a variance per pair. so is it a reflection of competition, the defenceman or the goalie.
    leaning towards the shots type yeilded by the d pair.

    Here is the key!
    There are enough shots per d pair for the save% to work to the mean.
    So that variance from the mean.
    is it Quality of shot yielded? I think So.

    What startred my look was Corsi.
    And Corsi versus zone start.Corsi is a fly on a rhino.

    For Corsi:
    Basically there is a variance of 2 shots per game relative to the mean w/ 1 std Dev.
    Basically 2/30 =6.6666666%
    Shooting ability there is a 2% variance in the 11% mean. 2/11 = 18.18%
    So basically we are talking about .06666666 x . 181818 =1.21%
    There was an average of 224 goals given up per team.
    224 X1.21% = 2.7Greflects a variance of 3 goals.
    so 6 goals best to worst For teams. A 2.6% affect.
    Now if your one of the worst does it get you to being outshot by 2-3 shots per game? Still minimal.

    Now zone start.
    Just looking at 1st competition offensive.
    A forward playing against first who has a zone start of less than 40% is expected to get .9EVP/60 as an average for that role.
    So 14EV minutes a game for 80 games 14 X 80 = 1120 min/season
    1120/60 = 18.666618.66666 x 0.90EVP/60 = 16.8EVP. He is roughly involved in 17 EVG for the season

    The points to goal ratio should be minimal in factor cause it works to the mean for the full data set. You want to micro manage go ahead.

    A forward playing against first who has a zone start of greater than 60% is expected to get2.70EVP/60
    18.66666 x 2.70 = 50.4 he is involved in roughly 50 goals.

    So variance in zone start against the same compcan have a 33-34G per season difference.

    33g/224g = 14.7%

    Basically Zone start has a 5 to 6 times greater affect than the worst corsi variance

    1 standard deviation of data zone Zone is 30 times more important than corsi.

    As a detroit lions fan I often go to the blog Lions in Winter. there is a guy named Zach Snyder who makes use of Pro football focuses Radial Graph to look at a player.

    http://www.thelionsinwinter.com/2012/03/meet-jacob-lacey-new-detroit-lions.html

    We need them for players in the NHL:
    Each arm of the radial.
    1. Overall-sum of the player value.
    this can be measured against cap for best Cap hit affect.
    2. Ev offensive production relative to Comp and Zone start.
    3. Ev Ga relative to teamates/Comp and Zone start
    3. PP point production relative to Comp.
    4. PPGF relative to Comp
    5. PK Ga relative to Comp
    6. Penalties drawn Affect (goals Created)
    7. Penalties taken Affect.

    Radial graph becomes very simple from desjardins numbers.

    then there is a description.Player X;
    At even Faces XXX comp inXXX zone start X minutes /GM
    On the PK faces XXX Comp PPX:XX minutes/GM
    On the PP faces XXXPK Comp with XXX teamates For X;XX minutes/gm

    A graph for each player tells us who they are situationally.And thier overall value.

    Thanks Ricki!

    Lots to digest.

  64. bookje says:

    Woodguy: And after he left too, especially last season.

    Maybe it takes a year to shake of the horribleness.

    I certainly hope “Post-Oiler year” is not a known affliction in the NHL community (Cole, Penner, Stoll, etc.)

    I can see NHL GMs using it “Well, it was bad year for him, but it was his Post Oiler Year so I would expect a big rebound season next year”.

    Sigh….

  65. CrazyCoach says:

    Woodguy, maybe we can sneak Charles Barkley in there and refer to it as, “The Turrible two’s”, for the season here and the season after.

  66. Captain Obvious says:

    Re: the Karlsson contract

    I don’t understand why teams pay unrestricted free agent prices for players that aren’t unrestricted free agents. I’m not seeing the discount the Senators are getting here and if there is no discount then the Senators don’t understand economics.

    If I’m negotiating with a player I play hardball until a team gives them an offer sheet. If no one gives them an offer sheet, I’m certainly willing to go year-to-year until two years out from free agency. At that point you have a lot more information about the player and it is a lot more reasonable to pay free agent prices for the player though I still want a discount on the first two years. John Tavares is what an RFA deal for a legitimate young star should look like.

  67. Moosemess says:

    The Islanders as the benchmark org for reasonable contracts? Now there’s something you don’t read every day.

    Wonder if that team continually losing it’s best players to free agency has something to do with Wang’s hardball tactics during the RFA years? Or is it purely because the team is horrid?

  68. Woodguy says:

    CrazyCoach:
    Woodguy, maybe we can sneak Charles Barkley in there and refer to it as, “The Turrible two’s”, for the season here and the season after.

    That’s awesome.

  69. Gerta Rauss says:

    I like Tyutin as a player but that 6 year contract is a bit much for me-now is not the time to be handing out long term contracts.After we make commitments to the kids next year then we can see where everyone else fits salary wise.

    Lots of chatter out of Chicago re: Suter possibly landing there because of proximity to his family. Somebody above mentioned Hjalmarsson and Frolik…both names I’d like to see targeted if Chicago needs some help clearing out salary.

  70. VOR says:

    Rickithebear,

    I just went to Behind the Net and looked at all the forwards who played in the NHL and organized them by OZ%. I only found four of more than 70 forwards with OZ starts of above 60% that had a EV p/60 above 2.70. Only two, Malkin and Eberle played regularly and not against the toughest competition so I am very curious how you came up with the 2.70 that is your expected EV points/60 for a forward with above 60% OZ starts. Without a reliable number there then you whole argument is invalid since you are simply guessing.

    Then there is the problem that according to you all players are equal. You make the mistake of assuming that the players doing the heavy lifting on D would light the world up if they were given the opportunity to go above 60% OZ starts. Similarly you assume that a player’s offence (say Jordan Eberle) would tank if he was seeing 40% OZ starts instead of 60% but you offer no proof that is true.

    In your analysis of Corsi above you use team Corsi not individual Corsi. Then you compare it to individual impact of OZ starts. This is a preposterous argument. How exactly can you compare a team stat with an individual stat and say anything about which is better?

  71. Archie says:

    misfit:
    1. I like Kreuger as an option, but my gut tells me Cooper is the guy they want (who I’d also be happy with).I don’t know how much MacT is involved in the decision, but Cooper seems to best fit the description MacT outlined after being hired.

    2. I’m sure they’ll make calls to Suter, but I’m hearing they’re showing interest in Franson and the Foster/Barker aquistions the past two years tell me that if they get him, they’ll be happy with the D and not look for something better.Don’t get me wrong, I don’t believe Franson is a top 4 guy in the slightest, but he fits the Oiler brass MO of recent years.

    3. Schultz is obviously a target of theirs and would perfectly fit your description.With Klefbom staying in Sweeden, Marincin/Musil/Gernat still years away, and not much in the way of quality youth in OKC, Teubert may be the best bet.I don’t see them going out and trading for a prospect defenseman, but drafting Murray at #1 is still a real possibility.

    4. Not going to happen.The team loves Khabi and with only one year left on his deal, I see them riding it out with him as Dubnyk’s backup.

    5. I wouldn’t count on anything happening on this front.In Tambellini’s mind, they have this guy already in Ryan Jones.

    6. I can’t see them not re-signing Smyth even if it doesn’t happen until after July 1.

    Oh please not Franson, the only difference between him and Barker is that Barker was paid more. I hear Burke wants at least a 2nd for him and he’s not worth it. Rather take a chance on some free agent then trade for Franson. You should note that Franson was the Leafs 7th D.

  72. Ducey says:

    Woodguy: Staples has a good article on history of how teams acquire top pairing D and where they go in the draft.

    Thats some weak sauce, even for the MSM.

    You can’t look at how teams got their top tier defensemen in order to determine whether the Oilers should draft Murray. They are two different things.

    Calgary signed JBo to a big contract so the Oilers shouldn’t draft Murray? The Rangers got lucky with Dan Girardi so the Oilers shouldn’t use a high pick on a defenseman? Thats idiotic.

    According to Staples there are 5 top guys drafted in the top 10 who are with their teams. He ignores seven others (by his own list) who don’t count because they were traded or signed from other teams. Wouldn’t that mean at least 12 guys have justified their draft position?

    He has done no comparison to how those “top defensemen” did relative to their forward and goaltender peers. Do any goalies or forwards bust? Are any of them ever traded? Do any forwards ever go UFA and change teams? Apparently not. I guess all the rumours about Parise, Bobbie Ryan, Nash, or even Luongo are irrelevant. The Oilers could get any of those guys, right?

    Is there any comparison between whether top pick defensemen tend to be better than undrafted defensemen. Do you have a better chance with Murray rather than signing three undrafted guys?

    What is the bust rate of defensemen taken in the top 10? Doesn’t look at this.

    How about a guy like Ladi Smid. He went #9 overall. He is not on the list anywhere. Just because he doesn’t make the list of top tier guys he was a bad pick? That means the Oilers should not have taken Klefbom?

    Maybe defensemen don’t go high due to the bias that Staples shows in spades.

    Sure the Oilers can trade for a top tier defenseman. They can just grab Doughty anytime they like, all they need to do is give up Taylor Hall or another young stud. Wait. Would that be a good idea?

    We got Eberle at 22. Or we can just get a Jamie Benn in round 5. No need to take Yakupov at #1 then.

    Is there any consideration to the Edmonton market and the fact it may not be that easy to attract a stud defenseman as a UFA or get him to waive his no trade to come here?

    Bottom line: At the draft you best the best player regardless of position. According to Staples, even if it is Murray, we shouldn’t take him because we can get Mark Giordano at some point in the future.

  73. Woodguy says:

    Ducey,

    That the longest post I’ve ever seen you do.

    Lots of good questions for Staples, I hope he responds.

    He has done no comparison to how those “top defensemen” did relative to their forward and goaltender peers

    Lots of people have looked at that. Forwards drafted in the top 5 destroy D and G in terms of quality NHL careers/pick and ActualElite Players/Pick.

  74. Woodguy says:

    Woodguy:
    Ducey,

    That the longest post I’ve ever seen you do.

    Lots of good questions for Staples, I hope he responds.

    He has done no comparison to how those “top defensemen” did relative to their forward and goaltender peers

    Lots of people have looked at that.Forwards drafted in the top 5 destroy D and G in terms of quality NHL careers/pick and ActualElite Players/Pick.

    Mind you, having DiPietro and Fluery as top picks fucks the sample of goalies.

  75. CrazyCoach says:

    I’m not seeing the love for Murray at this point. Great junior player, but so was Gord Kluzak.

    Count me in for the side wanting to draft Nail.

  76. CrazyCoach says:

    Wonder if anyone thinks the Sens overpaid for Karlsson now that he’s added, “Norris Trophy Winner” to the resume?

  77. spoiler says:

    CrazyCoach:
    I’m not seeing the love for Murray at this point.Great junior player, but so was Gord Kluzak.

    Count me in for the side wanting to draft Nail.

    Then you only have two more sleeps to Yakmass!*

    *Yakmass ™ of Mr. Debakey, Inc.

  78. CrazyCoach says:

    spoiler: Then you only have two more sleeps to Yakmass!*

    But what if I don’t get that Sarnia Sting BB gun and Santa brings me a Bunny Suit from Everett?

  79. Ducey says:

    Lots of people have looked at that. Forwards drafted in the top 5 destroy D and G in terms of quality NHL careers/pick and ActualElite Players/Pick.

    There are no doubt some good studies out there. I get that D take longer to develop and there is some more unpredictability in picking them. But lets look at the 2008 first round (the last where lots of D went quickly):

    Defense:
    2. Doughty
    3. Bogosian
    4. Pietrangelo
    5. Luke Schenn
    12. Myers
    13 Tuebert
    15 Erik Karlsson
    17 Gardiner
    19 Sbisa
    20 Del Zotto
    23 Cuma
    27 JOhn Carlson

    The forwards:
    1. Stamkos
    6. Filatov
    7. Colin Wilson
    8. Boedker
    9 Josh Bailey
    10 DSF’s former love child Cody Hodgson
    11 Kyle Beach
    14 Zac Boychuk
    16 Joe Colbourne
    21 Anton Gustafson
    22 Eberle (thanks Stu)
    24 Tedenby
    25 Greg Nemisz
    28 Tikhonov
    29 Leveille

    I’d say the teams that went with D in that draft did better by and large than those that went with F’s.

  80. spoiler says:

    CrazyCoach: But what if I don’t get that Sarnia Sting BB gun and Santa brings me a Bunny Suit from Everett?

    Then you will spend years of therapy telling the shrink how Papa Tambellini ruined your life.

    I’ve pre-booked ahead of the rush.

  81. Woodguy says:

    Ducey:
    Lots of people have looked at that. Forwards drafted in the top 5 destroy D and G in terms of quality NHL careers/pick and ActualElite Players/Pick.

    There are no doubt some good studies out there.I get that D take longer to develop and there is some more unpredictability in picking them.But lets look at the 2008 first round (the last where lots of D went quickly):

    Defense:
    2. Doughty
    3. Bogosian
    4. Pietrangelo
    5. Luke Schenn
    12. Myers
    13 Tuebert
    15 Erik Karlsson
    17 Gardiner
    19 Sbisa
    20 Del Zotto
    23 Cuma
    27 JOhn Carlson

    The forwards:
    1. Stamkos
    6. Filatov
    7. Colin Wilson
    8. Boedker
    9 Josh Bailey
    10 DSF’s former love child Cody Hodgson
    11 Kyle Beach
    14 Zac Boychuk
    16 Joe Colbourne
    21 Anton Gustafson
    22 Eberle (thanks Stu)
    24 Tedenby
    25 Greg Nemisz
    28 Tikhonov
    29 Leveille

    I’d say the teams that went with D in that draft did better by and large than those that went with F’s.

    One year?

    C’mon don’t be obtuse.

  82. DSF says:

    CrazyCoach:
    Wonder if anyone thinks the Sens overpaid for Karlsson now that he’s added, “Norris Trophy Winner” to the resume?

    PDO should be by shortly predicting he’ll only score 40 points next season.

  83. Lowetide says:

    Nuge doesn’t win. Shock.

  84. Cactus says:

    Ducey,

    But where the Oilers are concerned (i.e. 1st overall), the best pick in 2008 was Stamkos. At worst, he’s equal to Doughty, at best he’s more valuable (you simply cannot acquire 60 goal scorers by any means except the number one pick). Plus, as a forward, he was a safer pick as forwards tend to show their true upside earlier than defencemen, (2008 excepted, perhaps).

    Point is, Yak is probably better. Yak is DEFINITELY safer.

  85. Woodguy says:

    DSF: PDO should be by shortly predicting he’ll only score 40 points next season.

    So is Karlsson scoring 41 points in 12/13 still your over/under line (the year after he scored 78)?

  86. Ducey says:

    Woodguy: One year?

    C’mon don’t be obtuse.

    Obtuse? At least one year seems to hold up to a review. I’d go thru everything for you but I have a life.

  87. DSF says:

    Woodguy: So is Karlsson scoring 41 points in 12/13 still your over/under line (the year after he scored 78)?

    If you want to take the under I would happily take that bet based on PPG.

  88. rickithebear says:

    VOR:
    07-08
    08-09
    09-10
    10-11
    11-12
    1std deviation from mean.

    upper first
    lower 1st
    upper 2nd
    lower 2nd
    upper third
    lower third.

    the performance values are low for tough zone. with a steeper climb to the curve to 55% then a flating of the curve.

    the results for each group is a reduction in the amplitude of the curve. but the shape is the same.

    I think micro grouping player to a game by game situational performance like Pro football focus would be Ideal. but you end up with sub sets that do not provide enough data.

    As for individal shot yeilded. 4lines 32 shots. it becomes pretty obvious if a player yeilds to the mean. a player needs to yeild 90 shots to give up 1 goal. but how many of the shots are ev. Only 755 of play is even and ev shots to PP shots is not 1 to 1. Probably about 70%. 22 even shots.per game.

    to achieve zone affect, 33G X90 shots = 2970 shots. a player would have to be outshot by 37 shots per game. since there are likely 22 Ev shots per game. this is not possible.

    Corsi does become relavent when you give a probabilty of scoring value to the shot.

    Do i need to take the individual data and use as one full flow data set rather than groups yes.

    I dought a variance in curves.

    as for scoring ability of players. that is a subjective decision by the coach. the variace in Qual comp and qual team acounts for tthat.

    there is a clear trend that one players points earned are greater than anothers.

    From an engineering perspective. the values are close.
    need 10 samples to show me it is .9EV +/- 10%

    From when i was studying organic chem not so much.
    need to have 1000 data points to see its .935EV.
    Does the variance equal 1 goal per season. not likely.

    but hey lets wait another 15 years so we can be 45 nore accurate.

  89. Mr DeBakey says:

    You can’t look at how teams got their top tier defensemen in order to determine whether the Oilers should draft Murray.

    That’s true!
    You look and see that Yakupov is better, and then you decide to not draft Murray.

    Remember, with your Help, Logan Couture Syndrome can be beaten.

    Team Yakety Yak (don’t talk back)

  90. Woodguy says:

    Ducey: Obtuse?At least one year seems to hold up to a review.I’d go thru everything for you but I have a life.

    Excellent.

    My uncle smoked 2 packs a day and died in a car crash at 89.

    Smoking is not harmful to your health.

  91. Woodguy says:

    DSF: If you want to take the under I would happily take that bet based on PPG.

    Haha!

    Why not set the over/under line at 70pts?

    That’s allowing over a 10% decrease in production!!

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