DRAFT WEEK POST #2: WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN TRADING #1

If the Edmonton Oilers decide to trade the first overall pick, what should they expect to get in return?

 This article gives us a rundown of the short history of trading out of number one overall. The one that seems most similar to the current situation is the Dudley trade of 2003: he sent #1 overall to the Penguins for 3rd overall, a 2nd rd pick and forward Mikael Samuelsson.

The teams inside the top 5 (aside from Edmonton) could easily cover that requirement. The Jackets could send #2 overall, their 2nd rd pick and Marc Methot and it might be in the range. The Habs could send their first and second round picks and Lars Eller, the Leafs could do the same draft picks and add in Kulemin or Gunarrson or really any number of players.

Did Dudley win those picks? Based on results afterward I’d say he won the trade with Pittsburgh but that has a lot to do with how the board unfolded.

I think the story this morning is the Mirtle tweet via Dreger: the sense is that the Oilers value  a defenseman highly this year, and the sense is that the player they covet will be available at #5.

Is there any other way to read this?

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77 Responses to "DRAFT WEEK POST #2: WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN TRADING #1"

  1. DBO says:

    A big right handed Dman with some jam = Reinhart. I think (pure speculation) that the Oil may think that all of the young D aren’t too far apart, so trading down and getting one or two more assets makes sense. Especially if the 3 amigo’s feel that they have enough smaller talent up front (which is wrong, but you can’t fight stupid). So if moving back a few spots gets you an actual NHL dman and a solid winger (Kulemin, Gunnerson and the 5th say), optically it may not seem great, but that makes us a better team instantly with more balance and more actual players.

  2. jonrmcleod says:

    Please, Oilers, don’t copy Dudley Do-Wrong.

  3. sliderule says:

    Reinharts penalty minutes don’t speak of a tough D.

    The story was the OilKings where on him all the time to be more aggressive .If it isn’t your nature you will always revert to the passive .MPS is an example of that .

    Let’s hope LT’s item in oilers nation about MacT wanting gritty players filters down to our scouts who continue to pick Pouliot clones like MPS .

    Oh by the way the Yak is known for aggression .

  4. Jesse says:

    I wonder if the real plan is to lower Oiler fans’ expectations so much, beating them down with so many last place finishes that eventually we’ll all be passionately grateful for simply contending for a playoff spot. The team would be in the same spot it was in 10 years ago… But Katz would be thanked for it. He could be a genius¡

  5. Maverick says:

    I guess I just don’t see what the Oilers see in their depth roster. Yes, a top defenseman is needed but with Hall injury prone, RNH and Eberle adding another offensive player to take the heat off the three amigos would be a gift.

    If they trade down and draft another defenseman and get one in trade then in the summer of 2014-2015 we all will be talking about how the Oilers will need offensive help as they can’t score goals with only one offensive line. In 2 years Hemsky will be gone, Gagner at UFA, Horcoff off the books(hopefully), MPS the Jones replacement.

    In 2014-2015 they could have a strong goal-tending with Bunz and Dubnyk and a large number of defenseman with no where to play. Petry, Smid, Kelfbom, Musil, Tuebert, Reinhart, Marincin, Gernat.

    The only hope and I can’t believe I am going to write this, but MacT understands what is like to have a team with little offense as he coached it, maybe his voice will help make a point about drafting a “gift” at 1st in Yakupov or another offensive forward.

    Good news though, if this does not pan out and it was the wrong decision we all can start the chant of “new beginnin’ for MacKinnon” or “decision in 2012 was Bazaar lets cheer for Curtis Lazar”

  6. Maverick says:

    “Sigh”

  7. Woodguy says:

    My fear in this scenario is that in 3 years you have Reinhart/,Murray, Klefbom, Marincin, Gernat, Musil all good enough for the NHL (along with Smid, Petry etc)

    Then up front Hall had his head removed by random NHL Dman and isn’t the player he used to be, MPS’;s offence doesn’t progress, Hemsky is gone, Gagner is gone and all you have for forward scoring is 93 and 14.

    Lowe looks at MacT and says “Boy we have a lot of Dmen”

    Natch.

    The Oilers need a NHL Dman now to play next year (i actually think they need two as you cannot count on 6′s elongated ankle tendons)

    However, they are much deeper in D prospects than F prospects and the organizational need is actually the F position imo.in terms of bolstering the depth.

    If the Oiler’s were trading out of 1 to 5 and taking a F at 5, it wouldn’t be as bad,but that’s not what they are going to do. (if they trade out of 1)

    The F depth that didn’t play full time NHL minutes last year are: (who I think have a chance at somewhat of an NHL career)

    MPS
    Lander
    Harski
    Pitlick
    Hamilton
    Reider
    VDV

    D prospects not in the NHL:

    Kelfbom
    Marincin
    Gernat
    Musil
    Davidson
    Tuebert
    Simpson
    Fedun

    The number of players on the D list who have a good chance to play a significant role in the NHL is greater than the F list, and there are less D slots than F slots on a team.

    Take the damn forward who beat Stamkos’ rookie record please.

    If Yakupov’s last name is Martinuk and he grew up in North Battleford Saskatchewan they already have his name on a jersey.

  8. Woodguy says:

    Looks like Maverick made the same post as me, at the same time.

    I wonder how many others fear the same thing?

  9. Maverick says:

    Great minds think alike. :-) Let’s see how many others agree or disagree with our train of thought.

  10. DBO says:

    So would we be ok with trading down and not taking a dman? One of the better D in the draft will prob be there at 10, so maybe they deal down for a player, a #5 and another 2nd rd pick. Allowing them to take Grigorenko or Forsberg or Galchenyuk, then package their 2 2nds and a player for a #10 or so. That would make me happiest. Draft Galchenyuk and Reinhart, plus get an actual NHL dman for today. The size thing is what I feel will make the 3 amigos trade down. If Yakupov was 6’2, we wouldn’t be having this discussion.

  11. Maverick says:

    DBO:
    So would we be ok with trading down and not taking a dman? One of the better D in the draft will prob be there at 10, so maybe they deal down for a player, a #5 and another 2nd rd pick. Allowing them to take Grigorenko or Forsberg or Galchenyuk, then package their 2 2nds and a player for a #10 or so. That would make me happiest. Draft Galchenyuk and Reinhart, plus get an actual NHL dman for today. The size thing is what I feel will make the 3 amigos trade down. If Yakupov was 6’2, we wouldn’t be having this discussion.

    That would be ideal but with Tambellini’s track record of moving slowly I just don’t have the confidence that he will be able to make a quick enough decision on the draft floor to accomplish this feat.

    As Woodguy and I have posted drafting at least one of the offensive forwards might be the correct path to take. Grabbing a defenseman later might be better. Let’s hope the Oilers braintrust think the same as DBO and Woodguy.

  12. Woodguy says:

    Off Topic re: Devils’ first round pick

    Whyshynski had this at Yahoo today:

    Tom Gulitti of the Bergen Record had this last night::

    NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly confirmed via e-mail that the deadline was today and it passed without the Devils informing the league it intended to give up the pick. That means they either intend to use it or trade it.

    I spoke with Devils GM Lou Lamoriello at approximately 6 p.m. today and he declined to discuss whether the team would give up its 2012 first-round pick. He said the deadline was not at 5 p.m. today.

    Haha!

    Lou knows that rules do not apply to him.

  13. Jordan says:

    Lowetide said…

    Is there any other way to read this?

    Yes, there is. The Oilers, Habs, and Leafs all have picks in the top 5. TSN knows its market and is pandering, keep up their media hits moving into the slow summer months.

    The Oilers might trade 1st overall? Don’t want to move out of the top 5? Who on earth could they trade with?

    This is just here to feed the hockey starved masses.

    And if it’s not… well… get out your torch and pitchfork! Time to run them all out of town!

  14. bookje says:

    If the Oilers trade the 1st overall and get a top five pick, plus a really good player, I think I am ok with it.

  15. Clay says:

    What WG said…

    If there’s a trade down, I’d rather see it be a NHL dman coming over, and then they pick Galchenyuk or Grigorenko, rather than a dman.

    Yes, this draft is deep in dmen, but only because it’s shallow in forwards. Plus there’s not much separation among the top handful of dmen, because there aren’t any “great” dmen to ruin the grading curve for the also-rans. No Hedman or Larsson or Doughty.

    Time will tell, but I would bet beers that any lottery pick used on a dman this year will be looked upon 5 years from now as a wasted pick. The same won’t be said for certainly Nail, and probably the other two Russians, and maybe Forsberg or the Finn.

    And it wouldn’t be so bad if we could be certain that Tambo would lose his job if he botches this, but odds are he’d still be here with his blank gaze and nervous grin, talking about how great the Oilers’ future is.

    I sure hope MacT has a say in all this – he’s not the magic beans type.

  16. Woodguy says:

    Jordan,

    And if it’s not… well… get out your torch and pitchfork! Time to run them all out of town!

    I don’t think we are running them out of town, just discussing what if scenarios.

  17. Clay says:

    DBO,

    Did Reinhart switch hands? Thought he was a lefty.

  18. rich says:

    i’m on board with where Woodguy and Maverick are going. Take the BPA at #1.

    If you org need is for a d-man who can play right now, you trade the best prospect(s) not named Hall, Eberle, RNH, Smid or Petry and get that person. If it means Gagner plus picks/prospects as much as I hate it, you do it.

    And that would also help free up space under the 50 cap limit.

    To use an NBA analogy. For many years after Showtime (LA Lakers), the league was all about defense and mugging one another. Low scoring games. Only way to open that game up was speed and skill….something OKC certainly has on Miami.

    Adding Yak w/Eberle, RNH and Hall gives us 2 lines of highly skilled forwards that for once would put pressure on the other teams. Sometimes the best defense is a good offense.

  19. Wes Mantooth-11 says:

    This is pure speculation by DD, now that the SCF are over the next big thing is the entry draft.

    I listen to Mac-T on three different shows basically say take the BPA and scoring and offense trumps defense.

    He also mentioned trading for need. As Woodguy has mentioned the Oilers don’t have a pressing need for defensmen, they have a need for NHL defensmen.

    He also agreed that it would be in the best interest to draft a skilled forward because they command more on the open market should you need to trade on.

    The one good thing about Mac-T is he let’s people know what he’s thinking. That was all paraphrasing.

  20. DBO says:

    Clay,

    Thought he was RH. My bad if he’s left.

    On another note, would trading a pick or a player for the rights to Shultz make sense to anyone? If they are going to flush Omark anyways, I’d like to see them offer him up for Shultz’ rights, then full court press him with the kids. Adding Shultz makes just drafting Yakuov a much easier pill to swallow for the Org and immediately adds two possible impact players that can play this year.

  21. Wes Mantooth-11 says:

    Why is it always the Oilers trading the 1st pick?

    Why can’t it ever be the Oilers are looking to acquire another top ten pick for need?

    I have a feeling the Oilers will be very aggressive this draft year.

  22. jonrmcleod says:

    Keep in mind that the Oilers have lately been doing what the media did not expect. Tambellini said the Oilers wouldn’t be very active on July 1, but they were. It was a foregone conclusion that Hemsky would be traded before the trade deadline, but he wasn’t.

  23. copperblueandwhite says:

    LT: Please, don’t put ideas in their heads…BPA is the only way to go with a talent like Yakupov…they could trade him after…PICK THE BPA!

  24. gd says:

    Personally I hope they take Yak.

    I still think if they are going to trade down it makes more sense to look at teams in the 8 to 13 slots to get max returns. The 2 through 15 slots are a complete crapshoot so if they can get someone like Skinner, Kane, Bogosian or Benn, plus Reinhart or Faksa that seems to be a doable trade. My hope is there is some GM so in love with Yak he will crazily overpay for him at the last second. Tambo’s walk to the podium next Friday might be the most exciting, nerve wrecking two minutes us Oiler fans have had since 2006. I will be very excited if I see Rutherford, Nieuwendyk or Poile come up to talk to him. I will be crapping bricks if Burke comes up to talk to him.

  25. Southern Oil says:

    Every year we seem to hear this talk about how either the Oilers are going to move up (pre #1 pick days) or are going to add another high pick at the draft. Usually it all comes to nothing on draft day which I have always been disappointed in.

    This year however is different for me. I would use the assets it would take to acquire another top draft pick for a real NHL D man instead. I thought we were suppose to be progressing next year? If you send off a bunch of assets for a top pick, what are you going to use to get a real D man? It would limit our options IMO.

  26. Ribs says:

    I had a dream last night that the Oilers let go of Stu. I don’t know if he quit or was fired, but he didn’t agree with managements choice for #1 overall. Oh my.

  27. Ducey says:

    Ribs: I had a dream last night that the Oilers let go of Stu. I don’t know if he quit or was fired, but he didn’t agree with managements choice for #1 overall. Oh my.

    Unless you are a member of the Psychic Friends Network, this is only slightly less reliable than the random musings of members of the media.

  28. russ99 says:

    Not sure if Reinhart is worthy of a top 5 pick, seems like a Teubert type of player with a little more skill. Lets not overreach because he plays in Edmonton.

    If we’re going defenseman, I’d look at Murray or Rielly. IMO Rielly would be optimal, even though he’ll need more development time that Murray.

    I’d be OK with the Oilers moving down if we get another second, a good player (not Schenn) and an impact guy at #3-5 like Grigorenko.

  29. Traktor says:

    Lowe and Tambellini are both on record stating they would need to be blown away to trade the pick. I don’t think they would say that, give Oiler fans a sense of comfort, and then turn around a move the pick for less than an overpay.

    Tambellini is also on record saying that while Edmonton needs help right now on defense they aren’t going to be able to fix that with the draft. They have a lot of good defensive prospects. They need NHL players now and patience to let their prospects develop and whoever they take in the draft will not change that.

    Dreger is great entertainment but he doesn’t have a history of predicting what Edmonton will do. Most recently he had Hemsky as a lock to be traded.

    If the only way Tambellini can improve Edmonton’s defense is by using the 1st overall pick then he should be fired. Its really that simple. I wouldn’t even be that upset if we end up with Murray but Tambellini needs to first prove that he can get something done without using the 1st overall pick as his chip.

    A good start would be trading Omark, Gagner, Hemsky for centers, D, or a goaltender.

    I know everyone is sick of me talking about Edmonon’s centers since LT started this blog but Horcoff and Belanger are already on the decline and are only getting older and Gags is a 1st baseman that doesn’t have enough power to justify the position.

    Take away Quick from LA and give them Bulin/DD and they don’t make the playoffs nevermind win the cup.

  30. sliderule says:

    Other than Yakupov the consensus is this is a weak but deep draft.

    The number five pick may be no better than the 20th pick.The magic beans you trade Yak for may go up in smoke like a lot of 20th picks have in past drafts.

    Three years from now we could be left with a player who the team we traded with thought was expendable and a puff of smoke.

  31. bookje says:

    Ok, this is totally unrelated to hockey, but is awesome enough to post anyway. Best thing since Buffalo Rider.

    Chuck Norris Presents Chuck Norris in Chuck Norris

    Somebody had some fun splicing clips together.

  32. Lummeropenet84 says:

    I’m with Rich. Draft BPA, then trad for, sign or trade other assists for another draft pick. I think the latter will happen.

  33. loosemoose says:

    Take the Yak
    Don’t look back

    It’s an easy decision really. Doesnt surprise me the Oilers make it look so difficult…

  34. Ribs says:

    bookje,

    I really liked the part where he morphs into a bear.

  35. Rondo says:

    LT,

    If I wanted a Dman so badly why wouldn’t I trade the 1st pick with NJ take Adam Larsson plus ? and the 31st pick.

    Larsson would be the #1 D-man in the 2012 draft.

  36. commonfan14 says:

    Any ideas on what the Canes would want for the #8? Seems like Reinhart would still be there based on most lists.

    Some are sure Grigorenko would be there too.

  37. slopitch says:

    I can see Sather getting in the mix. Gaborik is hurt and the Rangers despite having a great team need a top forward or 2. Players like Kreider, McDonough, Del Zotto would all be of interest. Oilers would be fools to trade for Erixson after what he did to Calgary.

    Like most people here Id still prefer Oilers keep the pick and package some players for say Del Zotto. Or maybe Marc Staal so we can convince Jordan to head over ;)

    It really all depends on Justin Schultz. Yes he’s a rookie but he’s gonna be something else. By the end of the year he’ll be a regular. If he’s signs here I’d rather spend the assets upgrading Gagner or Horcoff then get involved in the D bidding war. Too many teams looking for D right now.

  38. Woodguy says:

    Traktor,

    Tambellini is also on record saying that while Edmonton needs help right now on defense they aren’t going to be able to fix that with the draft.

    I certainly felt better when he said that at the Mac presser.

    Mac’s been saying the same thing and also said on Stauffer’s show that the top of the draft is about acquiring high end offensive talent.

    I think they’ll do the right thing.

  39. Rondo says:

    RED LINE REPORT: “WE THINK EDMONTON IS OPEN TO SHOPPING THAT TOP PICK”

  40. Rondo says:

    I think Oilers are looking at Morgan Rielly not Murray. That is why if they do trade down they think he will be available.

  41. knighttown says:

    rich:

    To use an NBA analogy.For many years after Showtime (LA Lakers), the league was all about defense and mugging one another.Low scoring games.Only way to open that game up was speed and skill….something OKC certainly has on Miami.

    I think people vastly overrate the quality of the Oiler forwards. If you go by current performance I think only the Big 3 are considered “special”. The rest, Hemsky, Gagner, Jones etc are replacement level players at this point in their careers and aren’t really worth talking about anymore than Chris Kunitz or Pascal Dupuis would be.

    The big 3 have proven they can score in a sheltered environment but that even in that environment they give up as much as they get. This isn’t 1985 when players increase their scoring by 20% every year until they are 28. Lots of guys score a certain amount in their rookie or soph seasons and really never increase their production as their role changes; take on tougher assignments to protect new kids, more targeting from top D pairings etc.

    These are nice players but I’m not sure this is Malkin, Crosby, Staal or Kane, Toews, Hossa, Sharp. I’d say the Oilers forwards are middle of the pack in today’s no-scoring NHL.

    Lots of room to grow but I think this vision of the Oilers running over teams with wave after wave of talent and changing the way teams are built in the NHL is laughable as is comparing them to the Showtime Lakers.

  42. bookje says:

    Rondo:
    RED LINE REPORT: “WE THINK EDMONTON IS OPEN TO SHOPPING THAT TOP PICK”

    The media knows nothing, so they spend time pointing out the obvious – that everything is for sale if the price is right. Basically, the ‘price’ is probably a bit lower this year than it would have been in the past two years.

  43. bookje says:

    Woodguy:
    Traktor,

    Tambellini is also on record saying that while Edmonton needs help right now on defense they aren’t going to be able to fix that with the draft.

    I certainly felt better when he said that at the Mac presser.

    Mac’s been saying the same thing and also said on Stauffer’s showthat the top of the draft is about acquiring high end offensive talent.

    I think they’ll do the right thing.

    I think the only possibility is if they get an offer for a really good top 2 defensman with significant RFA time left AND pick in the top five or so.

  44. Beaker says:

    Wes Mantooth-11: Why is it always the Oilers trading the 1st pick? Why can’t it ever be the Oilers are looking to acquire another top ten pick for need? I have a feeling the Oilers will be very aggressive this draft year.

    Really? You dont see the problem with the Oilers trying to grab another top 10? I love shiny stuff as much as any Oilers fan (really I do) but we would have to be giving up probably our second rounder and a roster player (+more?) to grab a dman who may not even play in this league in the next couple years?

    Trying to trade up for a DMAN has nothing to do with need. I’d rather see them take those assets and get a real live grown up NHL dman.

    NHL READY is not the same thing as ALREADY IN THE NHL

  45. LP says:

    Maverick, and also:

    Woodguy:
    My fear in this scenario isthat in 3 years you have Reinhart/,Murray, Klefbom,Marincin, Gernat, Musil all good enough for the NHL (along with Smid, Petry etc)

    Then up front Hall had his head removed by random NHL Dman and isn’t the player he used to be, MPS’;s offence doesn’t progress, Hemsky is gone, Gagner is gone and all you have for forward scoring is 93 and 14.

    MPS
    Lander
    Harski
    Pitlick
    Hamilton
    Reider
    VDV

    D prospects not in the NHL:

    Klefbom
    Marincin
    Gernat
    Musil
    Davidson
    Tuebert
    Simpson
    Fedun

    I completely agree.

    Need help on D now, and Yakupov will *not* overcrowd the top Forwards on this team. Reading the article LT links to makes you shake your head. Dudley traded his 1st OV for Dan Cloutier, Niklas Sundstrom and Nikita Alexeev. When he could have had either Sedin instead of all that.

    I think keeping 1st OV AND trading down to get another pick in the 7-15 range is the safer thing to do, as many sport writers and other comentators here have alluded to. BTW DD doesn’t necessarily imply they WILL trade down. He leaves the door open for trading up, IMO.

    30-40 goal scorers don’t grow on trees and as WG and Maverick mention (among others), we seem to have a few good D in the system, but no so many top F coming.

    Take Yakupov please and trade Bélanger/Gagner/+ ? for another top pick.

  46. rickithebear says:

    looking @ players 16 year old season is a great marker.
    0.7PPG or better in the OHL.
    Tavares 2.00 PPG 06-07
    Stamkos 1.46 PPG 06-07
    Hall 1.33PPG 07-08
    Galchenyuck 1.22PPG 10-11
    Seguin 1.10 PPG 08-09
    Puempel 1.08 PPG 10-11
    Couture .98 PPG 05-06
    Spooner .94 PPG 08-09
    Toffoli .85 PPG 08-09
    O’rielly .85 PPG 07-08
    Skinner .81 PPG 08-09
    Domi .79 PPG 11-12
    Duschene .78 07-08
    Jenner .75 PPG 09-10
    hishon .75 PPG 07-08
    Hodgson .73 PPG 06-07
    Monahan .72 PPG 10-11
    Henrique .71 PPG 06-07

    Any trade down that allows us to :
    1. Pick galchenyuk there is the potential for Schenn/glennie
    “Big , good skating, Play waking center. understands the need to take care of both ends of the ice.
    Uses body to create space. Strong along the boards. Can stick hanle in phone both.”
    2 Gets us a successful young tough Comp Dman
    CBJ nikitin
    MTL Georges, Subban
    NYI Mcdonald, Hamonic
    TOR Gunnerson
    3. 2012 2nd round pick.

    Crazy?

  47. neojanus says:

    I have a question about Justin Schultz and bonuses?

    What are the limits a team can go to make these huge bonus contracts for an entry level player/

    Is there a cap? A certain standard? Or are teams allowed to create whatever incentive they choose?

    On another related topic, is there anything stopping a team from buying a new player a house? A car? Etc?

    I’ve always wondered what the actual limits are as opposed to the hollywood version. One would think that if Katz wants something badly enough (amongst other owners in the league), he can pretty much afford anything barring the purchase of some countries (I’m pretty sure Tonga could be bought… maybe Schutlz likes humpback whales a lot.)

  48. LP says:

    Traktor,

    I agree with you, even though I do like Gagner. But we need size and strength down the middle and that ain’t Gagner.

  49. SoxandOil says:

    If there was a possibility to turn Yakupov into 3rd Overall, Eller, and Subban or Gorges (i imagine another Edmonton body would have to be involved) then do it. If not Yak and hopefully Ulf’s boy.

    Love that first picture. I’ll be at Wrigley on friday and saturday. I may squee like Wanye.

  50. Beaker says:

    Does anyone know if there ACTUALLY is an appetite to trade Subban out of MTL? That could be interesting.

  51. DeadmanWaking says:

    The one good thing about Mac-T is he let’s people know what he’s thinking. That was all paraphrasing.

    MacT is savvy enough to tip his hand without blowing off a toe, a fine art lost on Is-it-me “Peg Leg” Lowe and Julius “Spit or Swallow?” Tambellini (to be clear, I’m referencing a recent observation by LT about Tambi’s lack of microphone mojo dressed up with a side-order of wide-eyed indecision where any plan preempts no plan).

    Unfortunately, as was observed, all too often slow news is no news.

    I run a bit against the grain by favouring BDA: best decision available. You don’t win championships by having a management team afraid to manage. This is more complex in sports than in real life, as your decision will be harshly judged ex-post in the fanboi fishbowl: what never happened couldn’t have happened, you incompetent clod. Sometimes life isn’t fair. That’s why these throwbacks-to-distant-glory get the big bucks.

  52. Ducey says:

    Take Yakupov please and trade Bélanger/Gagner/+ ? for another top pick.

    Why trade Gagner for a pick? He is a 45 pt player in the NHL with the potential to do better than that. The pick you get won’t play for years. You would just create another hole.

    You don’t move Sam until you have someone better to fill the 2C role.

  53. bookje says:

    neojanus:
    I have a question about Justin Schultz and bonuses?

    What are the limits a team can go to make these huge bonus contracts for an entry level player/

    Is there a cap? A certain standard? Or are teams allowed to create whatever incentive they choose?

    On another related topic, is there anything stopping a team from buying a new player a house? A car? Etc?

    I’ve always wondered what the actual limits are as opposed to the hollywood version. One would think that if Katz wants something badly enough (amongst other owners in the league), he can pretty much afford anything barring the purchase of some countries (I’m pretty sure Tonga could be bought… maybe Schutlz likes humpback whales a lot.)

    It’s all very strictly regulated including gifts and they are quite vigilant about ‘hidden’ gifts. Basically, there is nothing that the Oilers can do to outbid another team.

  54. Moosemess says:

    Oiler fans can be a funny lot sometimes. The team gets absolute manna from heaven in the form of winning this lottery, and then half the fanbase immediately starts speculating on ways to best piss this gift away.

    It’s time like these that I’m particularly thankful that Tambellini is boring and predictable. We don’t need a ‘Dudley’ moment at this draft to set back the rebuild another three years.

    I think those advocating the trading of Yakupov are probably too myopically focused on what he is now (a draft chip) vs. what he will become (Mike Modano, Joe Sakic, Steve Stamkos, etc.). Envision him in that context with an entry level contract and you quickly realize that no team will be offering up assets sufficient to make you want to forgo this pick. It would require a massive overpay and unfortunately, post Phil Kessel, the only GM likely predisposed to that behavior is probably a little gun shy.

  55. LP says:

    Ducey:

    Why trade Gagner for a pick?He is a 45 pt player in the NHL with the potential to do better than that.The pick you get won’t play for years.You would just create another hole.

    You don’t move Sam until you have someone better to fill the 2C role.

    What if you can grab Grigorenko along with Yakupov? I’d take him over Gagner. (chances of that happening are small…)

    But I see your point and I agree, you need to replace Gagner if you move him. My point was trade some current players for some players that can help right now.

    I should have mentionned Omark, MPS, etc..

  56. Jordan says:

    Woodguy:
    Jordan,
    And if it’s not… well… get out your torch and pitchfork! Time to run them all out of town!

    I don’t think we are running them out of town, just discussing what if scenarios.

    So am I! What if… Oilers management does something really stupid with the 1st overall?

    Answer: Get out your torch and pitchfork and run them all out of town!

  57. rich says:

    knighttown: The big 3 have proven they can score in a sheltered environment but that even in that environment they give up as much as they get. This isn’t 1985 when players increase their scoring by 20% every year until they are 28. Lots of guys score a certain amount in their rookie or soph seasons and really never increase their production as their role changes; take on tougher assignments to protect new kids, more targeting from top D pairings etc.
    These are nice players but I’m not sure this is Malkin, Crosby, Staal or Kane, Toews, Hossa, Sharp. I’d say the Oilers forwards are middle of the pack in today’s no-scoring NHL.

    Knightown – fair enough. The analogy is not perfect. We’re not about to go back to the mid-to-late 1980′s.

    But for a team that has been offensively challlenged in the past, being able to put 4 highly skilled players out on 2 different lines will (as they continue to develop) create match-up problems for other teams.

    They may not be individually as talented as the leagues best however, having 4 of them on one team should help them to create more scoring chances. Add a healthy Hemsky to the mix, and that could make this group even more exciting to watch. I think it’s fair to say we have now have 2 legitimate scoring lines.

    And this is more realistic than last year when many thought we could have 3 lines…and it turned out we really just had 1 line scoring consistently at any given time.

  58. Moosemess says:

    For the Oil, I would think one of the problems with achieving two consistent scoring lines is not knowing what officiating standard the league will be following from one week to the next. Right now, it appears the league is back to the days of swallowing the whistle during the playoffs and as a result, having some serious heft in the lineup is in vogue again. What if the NHL comes out of this new collective bargaining agreement process with a significant mandate from the PA to improve player safety again and the parade to the penalty box begins anew?

    It seems to lend credence to the argument that given the choice between two equally skilled prospects, you draft the one with size cognizant of the fact that player gives you the best chance to succeed regardless of the type of game being played.

  59. ashley says:

    LP: What if you can grab Grigorenko along with Yakupov? I’d take him over Gagner.(chances of that happening are small…)

    But I see your point and I agree, you need to replace Gagner if you move him. My point was trade some current players for some players that can help right now.

    I should have mentionned Omark, MPS, etc..

    This is the challenge with the days leading up to the draft. Everyone rated in the top 10 is Gretzky lite, and everyone on an NHL roster is garbage. Especially if they have been on the roster for a while and the fans are tired of them for some reason. A shiny new thing has to be better.

    What if Grigorenko is worse than Gagner? Worse yet, Gagner alone doesn’t even get you a pick in the top 5, so you have to give up Gagner plus to get him.

    I have to remind myself that these are draft picks. They are potential and nothing more. A fair number of them will end up worse than nothing since they will cost NHL teams opportunity.

    If the GM’s think like we think during draft week(overvalue picks, undervalue real NHL players), then this would be an ideal time to trade draft picks (other than number one) for NHL roster defensemen.

    PS. I’m not picking on you LP. We’re all thinking like this in draft week. Your comment was just the most recent.

  60. LP says:

    ashley,

    No problem.

    Two things:

    1. I think *balance* has been missing on this team for some time now and that’s what I would try and get by trading player A (in the NHL) for player B (a draft pick – that could potentially bring more balance. IE. size down the middle).

    2. I think we have to agree that if we’re trading Gagner for another player, it sure as hell better be a good/sure bet said pick turns into a good NHLer.

    I understand these are draft picks, but players picked in the top 10 usually tend to be fairly good, but you’re right, you never know.

    The goal should be, get a balanced roster.

    4 C made of up 4 Gagners isn’t a good idea IMO – I’m sure you agree.

  61. oilersfan says:

    LP

    Gagner was a 6th overall draft pick who is a proven second line player.

    Trading him for Grigorenko, which I doubt you could do, would likely take 3 years for Grigorenko to get to the level of play Gagner is at now.

    Gagner has a high compete level. Grigorenko is being questioned for that.

    Even Ryan Johansen, who everybody here drools over, is going to be three years removed from his draft year this year, and he doesn’t look like he will even get 30 points in the NHL this season.

    Yes the Oilers need size with skill down the middle to be a cup contender, but if you draft that player now, and get him by trading Gagner for him, you push back the rebuild 3 years.

    Their best way to get it imo is to play Gagner with Hall and Eberle this season, get him to 23 goals, 60 points, then trade him for the best player you can find to fill a need either 2c, big winger with skill or top 4 dman.

  62. Cactus says:

    ashley,

    Excellent post. I’ve actually been wondering whether this year might be the best time to move the 2nd and/or 3rd round pick(s) based on the premium that GMs afford picks during the draft. While the Oilers could use to improve their prospect depth at forward, that 2nd round pick + a prospect might actually buy a legit top 4 defenseman. The UFA route is always a crapshoot – a savvy trade here going do a lot of good.

  63. Cactus says:

    One other thing:

    So far this offseason, we’ve had clear “evidence” from “reliable” sources that have led bloggers and posters to the following conclusions:

    1) The Oilers are almost certainly going to go with the consensus and take Yakupov 1st overall.
    2) The Oilers are secretly very impressed with Ryan Murray and are going to buck convention and draft him out of organizational need/preference.
    3) The Oilers don’t like their options at 1st overall/want help right away and are almost certainly going to trade down, probably with the Leafs.

    I’m going to go out of a limb here and suggest that on June 22, at least two of these near-certain rumours is going to be proven dead wrong. Maybe we should all relax a little.

  64. LP says:

    oilersfan,

    I was using Gagner as an example. I agree he is a good player, but at one point in order to bring in some players the Oilers need ( IE size at Centre) they are going to HAVE to let some go.

    I bet you Grigorenko plays in the NHL in 2012-2013 and does pretty good.

  65. Ducey says:

    Gregor is reporting that Todd Nelson had an interview yesterday for the Coaching position.

    1st MacT, then Klefbom, now this. Its like Tambellini is doing his job!

    Given MacT’s comments about sweeping away the losing mentality, I don’t think the new boss will be Freddy Krueger.

  66. Ducey says:

    LP: oilersfan, I was using Gagner as an example. I agree he is a good player, but at one point in order to bring in some players the Oilers need ( IE size at Centre) they are going to HAVE to let some go. I bet you Grigorenko plays in the NHL in 2012-2013 and does pretty good.

    I’ll bet you Gagner outproduces him next season.

  67. LP says:

    Ducey,

    Interesting bet. I guess it would depend on what team is drafting him.

    But if I’m betting (and I don’t normally) I would bet Gagner produces more than Grigorenko, but not by much.

    In 1-2 years, I’d bet Grigorenko.

    Who knows though, really.

  68. Rondo says:

    People want to fill all the holes in 1 draft. Oilers are not a playoff team yet, couple more years.

  69. ASkoreyko says:

    I think everyone needs to remember what Tambo said during his ‘lucid’ interview. He people need to remember that the draft is not about fixing what is wrong with the current team but what the perceived weaknesses would be of the team in the future. The guy said it himself in plain english. That to me screams no Ryan Murray, the Oilers must also see that their forward depth is the current weak spot of the org and should be taking steps at the draft to help out in that regard.

    To me all this noise about them trading the pick is just that, noise. The media guys need something to drive traffic and all the anti-Tambo fans are all to quick to jump on a rumor and judge him for actions not yet taken.

    I have not agreed with everything he has done, but lets at least wait for the man to screw up again before we judge him further.

  70. bookje says:

    Tomorrow can we please hear a rumour (a tweet perhaps) from someone claiming that the Oilers are going to trade the first overall for the rights to talk to Dustin Penner before July 1st.

    Please, I just want the Oilogosphere to explode, just for fun…

    Sigh – we are all suckers – after more than a month of fan angst, the Oiler select Nail Yakupov with the first pick overall…

  71. Traktor says:

    Ducey: I’ll bet you Gagner outproduces him next season.

    Wellwood probably outproduces him next year as well.

    It doesn’t mean that Wellwood has more value than Grigorenko.

  72. OilOnWhyte says:

    Slightly off topic –

    Both Washington (11, 16) and Buffalo (12, 21) have two number one picks. If one of these teams could acquire a need (Washington a wing, Buffalo a centre), would anyone be receptive to trading the 32nd and a player for a defence pick in the teens?

  73. Lowetide says:

    I would for sure. There should be a good defender sliding down the draft by then.

  74. OilOnWhyte says:

    Lowetide,

    Think Washington would have any use for Omark?

  75. Wes Mantooth-11 says:

    Beaker,

    Who said it had to be a defensmen? You don’t see a problem with the veteran core? Do you not see that the Oilers kids have out performed our veterans? Ya I would trade a roster player for a nice shiny toy!

  76. Beaker says:

    Wes Mantooth-11,

    Same logic applies. Shiny toy (assumed defensemen but doesnt really matter) isnt likely to be ready this year. Also what washed up under performing bad in the locker room vets are you going to convince another GM to give up a good pick for? You’re likely going to have to be giving up other prospects and picks anyways which diminished that return you are going to get for “the veteran”

  77. Lowetide says:

    OilOnWhyte:
    Lowetide,

    Think Washington would have any use for Omark?

    Hope so. I hope Omark scores 80 points next season, even if its for the Flames.

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