DRAFT WEEK POST #6: FINAL TOP 30

We are now counting down to the 2012 NHL Entry Draft. In so many ways this one is completely different than the previous two for Oiler fans. The biggest difference? The pick may be dealt.

FINAL TOP 30

This list is slightly changed from the one you may have read at Oilers Nation. More Americans and some small movement overall. As always, this is a fan’s top 30, no inside info and the references in the 30 are likely things you’ve already seen if you’re a follower of the draft.

I use Desjardins NHLE as a factor, and players with a wide range of skills get a push.

  1. R Nail Yakupov NHLE 18-22-40. Dynamic offensive player, absolutely the king of the offensive hill. tsn: quick feet, tremendous burst, top-notch agility, slick hands, dangerous shot, quick release.Terrific skills, franchise talent.
  2. D Ryan Murray NHLE 5-12-17. Murray is going to be closely watched when he turns pro, as math suggests there is not elite but many of the “saw him good” scouts swear he’s something else. I don’t recall a prospect as divisive this close to the top of the draft. Comps I’ve heard range from Scott Niedermayer to Jay Bouwmeester.
  3. C Alex Galchenyuk NHLE 11-19-30 (this is based on his 10-11 season). Frankly, I think this guy may end up making everybody look stupid for not taking him with the top pick. Exceptional puck handler and his size makes him a lock for the lottery.
  4. C Mikhail Grigorenko NHLE 16-17-33. I know there are questions about effort, but there’s just too much here. Size AND skill AND he’s a center and on it goes. There is no doubt some risk but the possible reward is immense.
  5. D Griffin Reinhart NHLE 5-10-15. He has convinced NHL scouts that he’s going to be a shutdown defender of some quality. This is Pronger draft-territory, there has to be a lot of shut down. Solid defender who can move the puck and like his Dad he should have some success on the PP because of his shot (Paul Reinhart scored 49% of his NHL goals on the powerplay). However, it is important to remember this: of the top end defenders, none have more value invested in goal prevention. He’s this high because of vast improvement September to May.
  6. R Teuvo Teravainen NHLE 12-8-20. Teravainen is exactly the type of player who often rips up the charts late in a draft season, perhaps suggesting he is somehow less impressive than the kids we’ve been reading about all winter. Not so. Teravainen has been there all along, our focus was elsewhere.
  7. D Morgan Rielly NHLE 4-21-25. Best offensive potential among the high end defenders, I keep coming back to those flashes of brilliance he showed against the Oil Kings in the playoffs. He seems to be moving late and I will watch Bob McKenze’s final list next week to see how high he is listed.
  8. L Filip Forsberg NHLE 3-3-6. PF with skill, he’d rank higher on my list if Forsberg had posted better offense in Sweden’s 2nd league or at the WJ’s. Martin Lunden knows a lot about the Swe-2 league and told me his offensive chances (or rather being placed in high offensive situations) would probably be very low. Forsberg’s agent feels he needs another year of development in Sweden.
  9. D Matt Dumba NHLE 7-13-20 I think he’s underrated on my list but can’t find a way to place him higher. The worry about style (based on his size) is too much for me to overcome. He might end up being the best defenseman in this draft.
  10. D Olli Maatta NHLE 2-12-14. Has a nice range of skills and might be that very rare player who just “gets” playing defense at a very young age. Has a nice range of skills both offensively and defensively, Calm feet, good skater, moves the puck expertly and recovers well, Maatta closes the gap in a heartbeat and looks completely in control. I think we should follow Murray and Maatta closely, as they appear to be similar player types.
  11. D Cody Ceci NHLE 7-16-23. Nice range of skills, good size-speed and he’s clearly a talented young player. I think Ceci is the last of the defenseman we could reasonably assume has at least a chance to become the best defender in the draft.
  12. L Pontus Aberg NHLE 11-9-20. Speed winger with good skill level, Corey Pronman tells us he played about 10 minutes a night in the SEL (making his production very good). I have him this far behind Teravainen—who appears to be a similar player—based purely on their descriptions. Aberg could be the better player.
  13. C Radek Faksa NHLE 12-15-27. Big forward (6.03, 203) with a nice range of skills and no obvious weaknesses. What’s more, he’s apparently healthy and his size/skill will get him noticed. He could easily end up among the top 10 picks this year. OHL prospects says “he’s big but also has an explosive first few steps” and a team looking for just that might reach a little.
  14. D Jacob Trouba NHLE 4-14-18. 6.02, 194 and played well for Team USA at the World Juniors. Yet another defender with a wide range of skills, A little like Ryan Murray in that he’s an excellent skater and effective puck mover but it isn’t a certainty he’ll be a big PP contributor once he arrives in the NHL. Off to play NCAA with Michigan in the fall.
  15. C Zemgus Girgensons NHLE 11-14-25. Skilled player from the same country as Oilers prospect Kristians Pelss (Latvia) Girgensons has been lighting up Dubuque (USHL) for two winters in a row now. 2-way center, excellent skater and all kinds of skill. Plays with grit, 6.02, 200.
  16. D Dalton Thrower NHL 7-13-20. Exactly the kind of player teams look for in one significant way: he improved a great deal from September to March. Fine skater with good offensive ability, he’s also a hard hitter and an agitator. Oilers haven’t said a word about him but I can’t imagine they’re unaware of his skills.
  17. L Tomas Hertl NHLE 19-21-40. Impressive season in the Czech league (the NHLE number for Czech may be inflated but we’ll stick with it with an asterisk) and he’s clearly skilled. Hertl’s foot speed is an issue and that could impact his draft number, but he’s described as a heady player and the results in a Euro pro league are exceptional for his age.
  18. C Brendan Gaunce NHLE 10-15-25. Big forward with skill who can crash and bang. He’s certainly good enough to project as a skill player and he does have plenty of grit. He’s a player the Oilers might consider trading up for in their efforts to add a skill/grit player for the top 6F.
  19. D Matt Finn NHLE 6-13-19. Mobile defender with good speed–this defense crop never ends–and looks like a decent candidate to push through and have an NHL career as a PP defender. Finn is not as physical as some of the other kids and that might impact where he goes.
  20. D Derrick Pouliot NHLE 4-16-20. Another puck moving defender and a player with plus skating skills. Average size (6.0, 181) and does not have a physical reputation. He’s a terrific passer, it’s one of his best skills. Played on a very good junior team so the numbers may be somewhat inflated.
  21. D Hampus Lindholm NHLE unavailable. A good skating defenseman, he also has size and there’s quite a bit on him defensively. Redline loves him–well likes him quite a bit–and there’s some offensive potential too.
  22. G Andre Vasilevski NHLE unavailable I’ve made every effort not to steal from a specific draft expert, but Corey Pronman’s description of this player–and reason for his ranking–is so good I’m just going to send you over there. Needless to say, a very interesting prospect.
  23. R Henrik Samuelsson NHLE 6-14-20. PF and a player whose draft stock rose through the spring as he helped power the Oil Kings to the Memorial Cup. Size/skill combination makes him a terrific prospect, and he’s right in the wheelhouse for a team like Edmonton. He might be a perfect fit.
  24. R Tanner Pearson NHLE 15-22-37. He’ll be 20 two months after the draft so we’re talking about a player who doesn’t have the development time ahead of him that we’ll see from the others on this list. Smart player with skill and good size and he could come right away with the right opportunity.
  25. D Slater Koekkoek NHLE 5-12-17. Offensive defenseman with size, skill and an injury history. He’s the first player on my list who could fall out of the first round (well, at least I think so) and he’s a raw player in that it’s going to take some time. Described as a physical defender.
  26. C Scott Laughton NHLE 8-12-20. If this was 1973, Laughton would be on his way to the Flyers–hell, he could be a Flyer now. Lacks top end skill but can play the game, but he makes a lot of things happen because of his agitating style. Smart, determined player and at 6.0, 175 he certainly doesn’t shy away from physical play.
  27. D Damon Severson NHLE 3-13-16. Makes the list for a nice range of skills and his size will make him stand out for some teams (6.02, 200 at age 18). Streaky offense, not as promising offensively as some of the others in this year’s draft.
  28. L Tim Bozon NHLE 13-12-25. I like this player a lot, he’s a good skater with a plus shot and good footspeed. Described as a terrific passer and his shot is rated as being one of the best in the draft. Thinks the game well too, and there’s not much left to criticize.
  29. D Brady Skjei NHLE 2-9-11. A late breaker, like Thrower he kept moving up the charts all season long. Terrific skater with good size, he is not an overly physical defender. Will play for Minnesota (NCAA) in the fall.
  30. R Sebastian Collberg NHLE 0-0-0. Played in the SEL this season but didn’t get a lot of playing time.Collberg did play well at the World Juniors (6, 4-3-7) and his scouting report suggests good things offensively. Speed is his calling card and elite prospects tells us he doesn’t shy away from traffic.

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105 Responses to "DRAFT WEEK POST #6: FINAL TOP 30"

  1. franksterra says:

    Take Yak, do what you can to move up with pick 2 to get Gaunce, Faksa or Girgensons. Do not move Gagner to do this though. As the Dictator would say, take a chill pill on drafting a D man in the first round. Grab an FA or two instead. Chill pills all round. 7 more sleeps.

  2. Lowetide says:

    They can draft a D in the first round, trade up from #32 to #24 and take one. LOTS of good looking D in this draft.

  3. hunter1909 says:

    I stopped reading at “franchise talent”.

    Next week all is revealed from the glorious 30th, 30th, and 29th place management team + an unqualified guy who wears glasses and went to college(being sold to the Edmonton plebs as a great leap forward lmao).

    I’m sure it’s unimportant whether Taylor Hall+Eberle+RNH accept Yakupov not coming coming to Edmonton, just like “Oiler for life” Captain Horcoff can be counted on to provide his peculiar brand of leadership forever, and ever.

    Oh well. Time to get out, and enjoy spring.

  4. Jesse says:

    I dare you to try and say “Slater Koekkoek” on the air next Saturday. :)

    I was interested to see Sebastian Collberg at 30, LT. I havent exactly been his biggest follower but I have noticed (iirc) many lists have him significantly higher. Insight?

  5. sliderule says:

    The oilers are not taking Yakupov.Stauffers rant yesterday when he claimed yak might not even be top four and accused him of everything but being a cross dresser is preparation.

    For what is the question.Trade?Draft Murray number one?Who knows.

    Whatever you know they are going to select the player”who is going to be the best in 10 or 15 years”

  6. Maverick says:

    3. C Alex Galchenyuk NHLE 11-19-30 (this is based on his 10-11 season). Frankly, I think this guy may end up making everybody look stupid for not taking him with the top pick. Exceptional puck handler and his size makes him a lock for the lottery.

    I hope if Yakupov isn’t the guy for the Oilers than Galchenyuk will be, I know he wasn’t invited to town for the big media event, but talent is talent and he would fill a “need”. If the Oilers walk up to the podium on Friday and call out “we are proud to select from the Sarnia Sting…. Alex Galchenyuk” would people be disappointed?

  7. franksterra says:

    Lowetide,

    I agree to a point. But i think you can get one of the good-looking C in the teens more cheaply then moving up into the top 10 for a Reilly/Reinhart/Dumba. Not sure Ceci, Trouba, Maata etc will be any better than our 4 young quality D prospects. Lander, VV, Martindale, etc, is shite prospect pool at C. I am maybe more conservative when it comes to our tradable assets. Ssam can’t go unless there’s an instant upgrade stepping right in; Harski, MP, Lander have very little value right now but could have great value to us in 2-3 years; i dohn wanna move Klefbom, Marincin, Musil, Gernat just to move up a dozen places in the draft. Jones, Eager, Belanger, et al, very little value.

  8. fuzzy muppet says:

    You take Yakupov. You’re offense is set for a DECADE. As Woodguy and many others have stated, OFFENSE is the hardest thing to acquire.

    You can get defensemen and bottom six guys easily.

    I fully expect the “braintrust” to screw this up

  9. russ99 says:

    I have Reilly and Forsberg ahead of both Reinhart and Teravainen. But other than that, pretty spot on, at least into the mid 10′s where the draft could be very different than pretty much every mock draft.

    I still think Thrower and Gaunce are more mid-late 20 picks. Grit alone doesn’t get guys drafted earlier, it’s more about potential.

  10. fuzzy muppet says:

    Also, What if Taylor Hall gets hurt again??? Will Murray Reinhart etc fill that scoring gap??

  11. TigerUnderGlass says:

    Spit-balling here:

    Eberle/Gagner/#1/#32 —–> Tavares/Hamonic/#4

    Thoughts?

  12. Woodguy says:

    I’M DISAPPOINTED IN YOU MR LOWETIDE. YOU ARE A TOOL OF THE EASTERN MEDIA.

    HOW CAN YOU SAY YAKUPOV ISN’T THE BEST????

    WHY DON’T YOU LEAD THE CHARGE FOR YAKUPOV? YOU HAVE INFLUENCE AFTER ALL!

  13. Woodguy says:

    Wait a minute……

  14. Woodguy says:

    Reading comprehension FTW!

  15. Ducey says:

    LT,

    I was going thru the top 100 in the Hockey News Draft preview and they have a guy named Esa Lindell listed at the 78 pick. Ever hear of him?

    He is 6-3, 194 and put up 51 pts (21 goals) in 48 games with Jokerit junior as a D man. His teammate Teravainen, who is 6th on your list, put up 20 pts in 11 games as a LW before he moved to the senior league.

    Seems like Lindell might be a steal in round three. Plus you have to like his first name.

  16. commonfan14 says:

    sliderule: The oilers are not taking Yakupov.Stauffers rant yesterday when he claimed yak might not even be top four and accused him of everything but being a cross dresser is preparation.

    Stauffer had a tweet last night about how stunned he was at the level of outrage in town about that rant. Sounds like Yakupov fans were absolutely killing him on twitter over it.

  17. oilersfan says:

    I just listened to the interview with Gare Joyce on Tencer’s show last night. I have no idea from that interview how people here think the Oilers’ media is suddenly against drafting Yakupov. Joyce said clearly Yakupov is the best player and there is some risk of the Russian teams offering him millions of dollars which if there is a lockout it will make it hard for him to resist.

    that is new? that is controversial?

    he actually says he likes Taylor Hall a lot but that Yakupov is probably a bit better.

    No controversy for me. Draft Nail. Pay off his parents if you have to in order to make sure he doesn’t go to the KHL.

  18. mustang says:

    Maverick:
    3. C Alex Galchenyuk NHLE 11-19-30 (this is based on his 10-11 season). Frankly, I think this guy may end up making everybody look stupid for not taking him with the top pick. Exceptional puck handler and his size makes him a lock for the lottery.

    I hope if Yakupov isn’t the guy for the Oilers than Galchenyuk will be, I know he wasn’t invited to town for the big media event, but talent is talent and he would fill a “need”.If the Oilers walk up to the podium on Friday and call out “we are proud to select from the Sarnia Sting…. Alex Galchenyuk” would people be disappointed?

    I agree with you, if Yakupov isn’t their man for whatever reason it better be a good one, then I would
    be ok with Galchenyuk. Ideally trade down a couple of spots and get him along with another asset. The cupboards are not filled with top prospects at the forward position especially at C. Drafting Murray number 1 makes no sense to me, Tambo needs to step up and acquire the dman or two that we need through other means being trade or free agency

  19. jake70 says:

    LT, didn’t answer you on the pre or post leather pants on ONJ……how about IN the leather pants. You are a fantastic chooser of photos (maybe Mrs Lowetide has final say?? lol), I’ll let you pick.

    The Stauffer show from yesterday. I didn’t find he was crapping on Yakupov like some posters thought. However, I found it funny he had this “not enough pucks” theme for the 4 young guns with both Staples and Michaels pieces. What PP unit can score in the first minute 100% (or 90, or 80, or 70…you get the idea) of the time. What’s wrong with 2 elite PP units??

  20. oilersfan says:

    FYI, Gare Joyce said he really likes Hall, and thinks he is a legit first line winger on a team good enough to win the Stanley Cup, but he sees Yakupov being good enough to be the NHL first line RW in 5 years for the rest of his career, being in the runnning as one of the best wingers in the NHL for the next 10 years after that.

    He says a few times, he thinks Yak is more physical, more aggressive, and a better finisher than Hall.

  21. nathan says:

    commonfan14,

    St*uffer: “Hell hath no fury like Yakupov fan scorned in Oil Country! I guess U can’t suggest there might be other players to consider at #1. Wow!”

    Actually Squealer jumped up and down on his trotters and swore there are other players to consider at #2, #3 and #4 as well.

    “Tambellin is always right”

  22. sliderule says:

    I just hope that the three headed management start to realize the ramifications of just flat out being the smartest guy in the room.The push back they will get from fans will dwarf what Stauffer is complaining about.
    I am not for it but a decent payback on a trade down probably could be sold.A straight out just go against the consensus will not be looked on kindly to say the least.

  23. Jordan says:

    Breath in.

    BPA.

    Breath out.

    Repeat.

  24. prairieschooner says:

    “Weird or What?
    Mac T arrives on the scene and suddenly everything seems to be up in the air.

  25. Rondo says:

    Don’t these rumblings help the Oilers, If I’m Montreal or Columbus or for that matter Toronto who knows what their doing. Arguably Montreal wants Alex Galchenyuk and Columbus wants Murray.

    If I’m one of those teams and those are my picks this rumbling puts Oilers in a better position .

  26. PunjabiOil says:

    Any chance the Oilers are intentionally misleading the media? So many sources say the Oilers are interested in drafting Murray – Tambellini guys usually keep things close to their chest.

    Something doesn’t compute.

  27. Rondo says:

    I would think if they are going to hire Jon Cooper they should do it immediately. He would have great intel on t quite a few players in the draft.

    So my thinking if he isn’t hired next week Sutter will be the coach.

  28. commonfan14 says:

    Spector has a couple of tweets:

    “#Oilers won’t trade No. 1 overall pick. Also won’t decide until Thursday night, Friday morning who they’ll take.”

    “No. 1 pick too costly. From Leafs, would have to include a Gardiner. From Habs, a Subban. Neither team willing, so Oilers will draft.”

    Stauffer then tweeted in response that it’s unlikely but never say never. So we’re right back to square one.

    If what Spector tweeted is true, it make a ton of sense as long as they believe, like almost everyone else, that Yak is head and shoulders the BPA.

  29. nathan says:

    Saying it would take a Gardiner or a Subban to swap picks tells you whoever picks at first is picking Yakupov.

    UPDATE: St@uffer: “It is well known that the #8 pick Carolina has is in play. If it goes to a lottery team the Oilers would have to listen”

    If Schenn isn’t enough why a #8?

  30. PunjabiOil says:

    I have it from a source, close ties with Oilers

    1. Katz wants Yakupov
    2. Tambellini wants Murray
    3. Stu MacGregor wants to trade down and draft Reinhart

    Sources suggests unless Katz interfers, they will draft Murray 1st OV.

    Sigh.

  31. nathan says:

    “3. Stu MacGregor wants to trade down and draft Reinhart”

    PunjabiOil,

    If MBS has Reinhart ahead of Murray not a chance Lowebellini picks Murray at #1.

  32. Ducey says:

    Stauffer is going to opinionate himself out of a job.

    He was apparently ripping on Klefbom a few months ago and the organization just signed him.

    Now the Yakupov rant.

    He might take notice of the fact that MacT singled him out for a shot during his first news conference, and MacT is now his boss.

    I expect that Bob’s access is not as good as some think it is, and it is becoming worse. There is a notion in these parts that somehow management uses him as a puppet to manage the fans’ expectations. I don’t see any evidence of it.

    In fact, if Krueger isn’t hired (Bob has been pushing him at every turn) and Yukupov is drafted, the notion that he is doing any more than picking up scraps should be discounted.

  33. Ducey says:

    I would think if they are going to hire Jon Cooper they should do it immediately. He would have great intel on t quite a few players in the draft.

    How? He has been coaching in the AHL. There is no one that plays there that will be in the draft…

  34. PunjabiOil says:

    Here’s the actual message:

    ___________________________
    You didn’t hear it from me, but essentially here’s the situation:

    - Katz wants Yakupov
    - Stu MacGregor wants Reinhart
    - Tambellini wants Murray

    If the Oilers keep #1 if things don’t change (and Katz doesn’t overrule), they will draft Murray. If they trade down they will draft Reinhart.

    I don’t really agree with it at all, but there you go!
    ________________________

    Believable?

  35. ashley says:

    Personally, I’m enjoying all the drama.

    That Spector tweet seems like posturing from one side or the other.

    I wonder if Subban or Gardiner become available on the draft floor.

    They would have to look long and hard at Subban and #3 for #1. That seems about right for Yakupov to my amateur eyes.

  36. nathan says:

    “Believable?”
    PunjabiOil,

    Eklund on steroids.

    Especially if “wants” means rated to take even at 1OV.
    Not the least bit believable that Lowebellini would pick Murray with #1 if Stu has Reinhart rated at #1 (which is also unlikely)

  37. PunjabiOil says:

    Yeah, I would agree it sounds fishy.

    Problem is, the guy is on the Oilers payroll.

  38. Traktor says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Here’s the actual message:

    ___________________________
    You didn’t hear it from me, but essentially here’s the situation:

    - Katz wants Yakupov
    - Stu MacGregor wants Reinhart
    - Tambellini wants Murray

    If the Oilers keep #1 if things don’t change (and Katz doesn’t overrule), they will draft Murray. If they trade down they will draft Reinhart.

    I don’t really agree with it at all, but there you go!
    ________________________

    Believable?

    Unless your source is Kevin Lowe I don’t put much stock into it.

  39. commonfan14 says:

    ashley: They would have to look long and hard at Subban and #3 for #1.

    Yak for Subban and Galchenyuk/Grigorenko makes a ton of sense.

    Yak for Gardiner and maybe Forsberg/Reinhart doesn’t do it for me.

  40. Cactus says:

    Has anyone ever stopped to consider whether Bob Stauffer actually has any type of special access? His record is far from perfect, yet when he shifts in the wind this is taken by some to mean a “new directive from management”. Why is it impossible that he simply changed his mind? Or is trying to find something new to say?

    I think it’s just as plausible that he’s really no more connected than other media sources (and maybe less connected than some). The reason he’s on the payroll is for the same reason the Oilers have cheerleaders – to promote the team through all mediums.

  41. Hemsky is a gangsta says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Yeah, I would agree it sounds fishy.

    Problem is, the guy is on the Oilers payroll.

    On the payroll as part of making hockey decisions? Or on payroll as an accountant/janitor/etc…

  42. PunjabiOil says:

    Traktor,

    God willing.

    I want this guy to be completely wrong.

    Its a no brainer in my view – draft Yakupov, and build around.

  43. nathan says:

    PunjabiOil,

    So Garfield sells popcorn or drives the Zamboni?

    More seriously if I’m Stu I’d be totally happy to have staff with loose lips believe I’m still considering something other than the two easy picks (Murray for Lowe, Yak for everyone who wasn’t a 1st round D for the Oilers). Great way to undercut the love for Murray too.

  44. speeds says:

    It’s hard to know how to read all this. Maybe it’s a bit unusual for all these hints to be coming out a week before the draft, but what do they mean? Misdirection? Prepping the fans to not take Yakupov at 1?

  45. Captain Obvious says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Here’s the actual message:

    ___________________________
    You didn’t hear it from me, but essentially here’s the situation:

    - Katz wants Yakupov
    - Stu MacGregor wants Reinhart
    - Tambellini wants Murray

    If the Oilers keep #1 if things don’t change (and Katz doesn’t overrule), they will draft Murray. If they trade down they will draft Reinhart.

    I don’t really agree with it at all, but there you go!
    ________________________

    Believable?

    Rishaug was just on the radio saying that there isn’t any agreement within the Oilers camp. So yes, a variation of this is quite believable.

  46. PunjabiOil says:

    Lets just say the guy is in administrative, and has in the past, been right on a few things.

    Just have doubts Tambellini and company being so guarded, would allow such information to filter down.

    We wait.

  47. Hemsky is a gangsta says:

    PunjabiOil,

    Interesting…wonder what we’ll see on the next episode of Oil Change.

  48. LMHF#1 says:

    It is the Reinhart talk that gets me. It either means they’re fibbing or we have some issues with talent evaluation.

    Having watched both and scanned their careers somewhat, isn’t it an open question which Oil King will actually have the most impact on a team in the long run? Reinhart or Samuelsson?

    I know I’m likely in the minority by a fair bit, but I’d bet on Samuelsson for a number of reasons.

  49. MrSmitty says:

    LMHF#1: It is the Reinhart talk that gets me. It either means they’re fibbing or we have some issues with talent evaluation.Having watched both and scanned their careers somewhat, isn’t it an open question which Oil King will actually have the most impact on a team in the long run? Reinhart or Samuelsson?I know I’m likely in the minority by a fair bit, but I’d bet on Samuelsson for a number of reasons.

    After watching quite a few Oil king games I still dont’ understand all this love for Reinhart. From what I saw Gernat was at least as good as him and Pysyk was better than Reinhart by quite a large margin. That there tells me Reinhart is definitely not 1st overall material. If they select Reinhart 1st overall I am grabing my pitchfork and storming Rexall. What is wrong with these guys minds?

  50. Doug McLachlan says:

    Come on people, we have seen this movie before.

    The Oilers will not make thier decision until Friday morning because until then they will not have thier final meeting to confimr their lists and to confirm their first overall pick. Just as they did last year, just as they did the year before that.

    The fact that Spector is confirming (via his Tweet) that the Oilers will NOT be trading the pick is, IMHO, the strongest indication that they will be taking Yakupov.

    All of this has happened before and all of this will happen again (hopefully not for a while because I am getting sick of this 1st overall crap).

  51. Archie says:

    Maverick: Galchenyuk

    I hopping they draft Galchenyuk, a big C is what the Oilers need.

  52. Jordan says:

    I like Yakupov as a prospect a lot.

    Murray has a lot of very nice tools at this disposal.

    But if Stu says Griffin’s the guy… I take him at his word.

    Either he’s a very smart man, and he gets to show it, or he’s not, and he gets to show it.

    In Stu I trust.

  53. nathan says:

    Trifecta on OilersNOW today: Yakupov’s agent, Button who has Murray 12th, Hall who would play with Yakupov.

    If St@uffer got a message from the Oilers it was probably AFTER yesterday’s show.

  54. speeds says:

    Jordan:

    In Stu I trust.

    Trust, but verify.

    Stu is a head scout and paid for his judgment, but so are a number of other guys and the vast majority of them seemingly have Yakupov at 1.

  55. nathan says:

    Jordan,

    If they trade down I completely trust Stu to claim they got their #1. Not concerned if he lies badly as long as he ranks and separates the prospects properly.

  56. bookje says:

    Here is what I believe to be true:

    1. The Oilers have the first overall pick.
    2. Nobody in the media or outside of a few individuals has any real knowledge about what the Oilers are going to do.

  57. Captain Obvious says:

    Good organizations aren’t based on trust. They are based on reasons. If I’m GM I don’t listen to my head scout automatically. I expect him to convince me. If he has good reason to prefer player A he should be able to convince me. Trust me isn’t an argument.

  58. commonfan14 says:

    Jordan: But if Stu says Griffin’s the guy… I take him at his word.

    You certainly can’t take him at #1 though – especially when you could probably get him at #8 and the Canes are in the mood to deal.

    Picking at #1 and taking anyone other than Yak is terrible business.

  59. Ducey says:

    After watching quite a few Oil king games I still dont’ understand all this love for Reinhart. From what I saw Gernat was at least as good as him and Pysyk was better than Reinhart by quite a large margin. That there tells me Reinhart is definitely not 1st overall material. If they select Reinhart 1st overall I am grabing my pitchfork and storming Rexall. What is wrong with these guys minds?

    You know that Gernat and Pysyk are older right?

    Gernat is interesting but I don’t think he was in the conversation for the Oil Kings best defenseman. He has a lot of holes in coverage that he was able to cover up with skating and a long reach.

    Pysyk in his draft year (2010) 48 GP 24 pts -16 (on a crappy team)
    Pysyk this year: 57 GP 38 pts +15

    Reinhart this year 58 GP 36 pts +23

    Pysyk was picked 23rd overall and is Buffalo’s second best prospect.

    Essentially you have an 18 yr old who is playing almost as good as a 20 year old and is 6’4″ rather than 6’1″. (His stats are actually identical but I agree Pysyk “looked” better and was playing the toughs)

    If he is almost as good as Buffalo’s 2nd best prospect at age 18, where will he be in 2 years?

    There is a very good chance that in 2 years Reinhart will be a #1 prototypical defenceman with size, shot, good skating, good coverage, etc. He may not be right now, but thats not really the point.

  60. Ducey says:

    TB just traded a couple of second rounders to NASH for Lindback. One less place for Luongo.

  61. MrSmitty says:

    Pysyks Defense partner was Lowe. Lowe was terrible (only played top pairing cause of his last name). So be the top pairing with Lowe and to still get those numbers is pretty impressive if you ask me. I know they are both older players but Reinhart wasn’t the kind of guy who ever stood out at any of the games I went to (some say thats a good thing). Reinhart is good enough to be a first rounder but be the first overall selection is pretty suspect. As for Gernat the guy impressed me alot. He has alot of offensive tools, can skate and is pretty raw but as the season progressed he looked better than Reinhart to me. His defensive game got alot better and he picked his offensive chances a lot better.

  62. Jordan says:

    I said the other day that the one thing that the Gernat pick showed us is that the Oilers scouting staff HAVE BEEN very good at identifying when how long to wait to pick a player. Granted this was a pick outside the 1st round, so it is a different dynamic. THat being said, I have not seen anything to suggest that the Oilers have gotten worse at this, so until I see them F* up, I’m going to see it (based on past performance) as a strength.

    I’ll bet that if Griffin is the guy they want, they will end up making a move to get him. I agree that it won’t be at 1. I think they draft Yak there – If Kats likes him, I woudl be higly doubtful that they will pass on the kid. I like the idea of picking up the Canes’ pick @ 8 for Griff, if he’s there.

    If the Canes are looking for a move, I’d suggest something like one of the Oilers (A) prospects (perhaps someone like Reider), Omark and Oilers/LA’s 3rd might get the conversation started They desperately need scoring depth, so that may be tempting enough for them to consider it. If it’s not enough I’d listen to what they think would get it done, and proceed from there. I might consider moving Hemsky straight up for it, depending on what the feel is about him coming back and being more than a passenger on a scoring line.

    But of course, with any trades, it’s all pie in the sky until there are some parameters set. Suffice it to say, I’d consider moving assets of value to get back in the top 10.

  63. Rondo says:

    Funny how most people are getting angry at the chance Oilers won’t choose Yakupov. The only reason you have your initial opinion of Yakupov is because you read articles and based on the article you had an opinion that stewed for a couple months and than became a fact.

    Can’t get too possessive over a pick, we are only fans.

  64. Evilas says:

    PunjabiOil,

    Reinhart #1??? That seems sketchy to me, I haven’t been impressed by Reinhart, the only think that is impressive is his size. Morgan Rielly REALLY impressed me, considering he played something like 14 games including playoffs, I think he will be the steal of the draft. I see him as the next Coffey-like dman we will see in the next 10 yrs or so…..

    As we went through the previous two years, Yakupov is the consensus #1, and even though there were doubts thrown about, the consensus #1 and BPA was taken, therefore Yakupov will be the pick. The Oilers won’t trade them unless a team is willing to overpay and unless it is a bolockbuster trade including roster players from the Oilers, I don’t see anything happening. The team will get the BPA and that is Yak by a mile. MBS is smart enough to recognize this and so is the rest of management.

  65. Moosemess says:

    I like the Lindback acquisition for TB a lot. Blue chip goalie prospect with great size stuck behind Rinne on the depth chart. This is the kind of deal I do wish Tambellini would be more active in pursuing.

    Gotta love Yzerman. He sees a need on his team and he doesn’t hesitate to fill it. I questioned the Steve Downie trade, but for the most part, Stevie Y is a Wonder as a GM too.

  66. Traktor says:

    Ducey:
    TB just traded a couple of second rounders to NASH for Lindback.One less place for Luongo.

    Two second round picks AND a third in 2013.

    That seems like a lot.

  67. Traktor says:

    Moosemess:
    I like the Lindback acquisition for TB a lot. Blue chip goalie prospect with great size stuck behind Rinne on the depth chart. This is the kind of deal I do wish Tambellini would be more active in pursuing.

    TB could have signd him to an offer sheet and saved two draft picks. I doubt Nashville would have matched, say, 3 years at 3M per

    I think Lindback has potential but I wouldn’t have supported Tambellini on that one

  68. Captain Obvious says:

    Traktor: Two second round picks AND a third in 2013.

    That seems like a lot.

    Really? Second round picks are basically worthless. Even second round picks that work out are highly unlikely to be better than Lindback. Getting Lindback for three lottery picks is like getting him for free.

    Great trade for TB.

  69. ashley says:

    There aren’t actually a lot of reasonable options for the Oilers.

    If they draft anyone but Yakupov at #1, they risk having Yakupov show them up on another NHL team for a decade. A high probability. That part of obvious.

    Less obvious, but inevitable is whomever they choose will always be compared to what should have been (Yakupov) and will never live up to fan expectations.

    Defense is a particularly easy position to criticize, and Murray or Reinhart if chosen at #1 will be forced into the NHL for optics and thoroughly derided for every error. Faint sighs of Yakupov will fill the rafters game after game. Anything short of “near-perfection” and the fans will ride them out of town on the same train Poti and Pitkanen left on.

    If they trade down, they will be in a similar situation, especially if the lower pick doesn’t work out. There is a reasonable probability that Gal or Grig end up as career 3/4C’s rather than 1/2C (even odds?). There is a reasonable chance Murray either doesn’t make the grade or settles into a 3rd pairing career. Or gets injured.

    Then what? The fans will all look at Yakupov’s success (a near sure thing) and wonder about what should have been.

    So as I see it there are only two reasonable options for the hamstrung brass:

    1) Pick Yakupov
    2) Trade #1 for a pick in the top 5 and a talented, young, NHL roster player with lots of RFA years. The latter will bring comfort if the player drafted at a lower level doesn’t work out as advertised. The trade could be defended even in the near worst case scenerio.

    For every other course of action, the risk is high that the Oilers will badly regret 2012.

    The draft lottery has actually severely limited their options and perhaps this is why some of the draft team and management are squirming (assuming the rumours are true). It is a good problem to have though.

  70. Traktor says:

    Captain Obvious: Really? Second round picks are basically worthless.

    You are wrong that second round picks are basically worthless. Plenty of quality players are drafted out of the second round every year.

    Also, a single second round pick can land quality proven players via trade or offer sheets if you are scared of magic beans.

  71. Doug McLachlan says:

    Andy Strickland is apparently Twittering that Justin Schultz has narrowed it down to one of the Leafs, ‘Nucks or the Oilers. Can’t Tambo deal something to the Ducks and get this locked down pre-Draft?

  72. Traktor says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Andy Strickland is apparently Twittering that Justin Schultz has narrowed it down to one of the Leafs, ‘Nucks or the Oilers.Can’t Tambo deal something to the Ducks and get this locked down pre-Draft?

    .

  73. LMHF#1 says:

    Taking Yakupov gives you options. Many options. Have any success signing a strong UFA or two (Penner, Stoll, one of the higher end dmen) and you could trade from some serious strength to get the rest of a really decent squad without sacrificing any of “the core”.

  74. LMHF#1 says:

    Random question: If Ottawa offered you Karlsson for the #1, you’d take it right?

  75. hunter1909 says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Andy Strickland is apparently Twittering that Justin Schultz has narrowed it down to one of the Leafs, ‘Nucks or the Oilers.Can’t Tambo deal something to the Ducks and get this locked down pre-Draft?

    Outstanding! Now we can change the Yakupov record, and start arguing over another impossible to know anything about topic, dreamed up by a random media snark.

  76. Marc says:

    LMHF#1:
    Random question: If Ottawa offered you Karlsson for the #1, you’d take it right?

    In a cocaine heartbeat

  77. nathan says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    Terms are fixed, so this is just the hockey version of “The Bachelor”. Schultz set this up to make his own pick in a few weeks. Only thing of value Ducks will get for some early dates to is going to be conditional. If they really believe there was tampering they probably won’t deal with the only team that would have to pay up on the conditional.

  78. nathan says:

    Even more to the point. He would not sign with the Oilers until after he see who the Oilers draft and he’s free to talk to everyone after the draft.

  79. Ducey says:

    Doug McLachlan: Andy Strickland is apparently Twittering that Justin Schultz has narrowed it down to one of the Leafs, ‘Nucks or the Oilers. Can’t Tambo deal something to the Ducks and get this locked down pre-Draft?

    As I understand it he gets a better deal (one less year of being an RFA) if he waits until he becomes a FA. I could be wrong. It seems to be a disadvantage to trade for him. Of course you could wine and dine him at the bat cave for a week and hope he comes back once he goes FA.

    He seems savy enough that he will make/ has made the decision regardless of meeting the boys on the bus and seeing the 5 Cups.

  80. commonfan14 says:

    Doug McLachlan: Andy Strickland is apparently Twittering that Justin Schultz has narrowed it down to one of the Leafs, ‘Nucks or the Oilers.

    If the kid himself is actually involved with these rumours (which is almost certainly not the case), I’d be worried because it absolutely reeks of a lifelong Nucks fan playing head games with Edmonton and TO fans before crushing them by signing with his hometown boys.

  81. Doug McLachlan says:

    hunter1909: Outstanding! Now we can change the Yakupov record, and start arguing over another impossible to know anything about topic, dreamed up by a random media snark.

    Exactly. The absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. :-)

    See, it’s already beginning.

    nathan: Doug McLachlan, Terms are fixed, so this is just the hockey version of “The Bachelor”. Schultz set this up to make his own pick in a few weeks. Only thing of value Ducks will get for some early dates to is going to be conditional. If they really believe there was tampering they probably won’t deal with the only team that would have to pay up on the conditional.

    Hmm, well the only conclusion here is that the reason Tambo hasn’t traded with Anaheim is that he has already locked Schultz up on an under-the-table handshake deal. What would the tampering penalty be? :-)

  82. TheOtherJohn says:

    LMHF#1,

    No, because David Staples says Karlsson has huge holes in his defensive game. (insert sarcasm)

    Do not understand R Murray argument. The argument is that his offense was stunted because he was on a bad team. The exact same argument would be equally applicable to Yakupov. Young Willis has article up positing Murray’s offensive comparables as being Alzner and Boumeester. Not sure either would be worthy of 1OV

    If Katz wants Yakupov, we’re taking him. I hope we pick Yak

  83. Doug McLachlan says:

    commonfan14: If the kid himself is actually involved with these rumours (which is almost certainly not the case), I’d be worried because it absolutely reeks of a lifelong Nucks fan playing head games with Edmonton and TO fans before crushing them by signing with his hometown boys.

    I know many a BC interior boy who absolutely does NOT view the Canucks as the “hometeam.

  84. OilLeak says:

    All this speculation regarding the top pick is getting tedious, I should probably avoid all hockey media until draft day, but I’m a glutton for punishment. What I would really like to see is Edmonton grabbing some more NCAA defenders. This allows for existing defense prospects ample room in the AHL and keeps the organization from rushing defenseman to the show.

    Edit: More European league players wouldn’t hurt either.

  85. Captain Obvious says:

    Traktor: You are wrong that second round picks are basically worthless. Plenty of quality players are drafted out of the second round every year.

    Also, a single second round pick can land quality proven players via trade or offer sheets if you are scared of magic beans.

    You do know that there are 30 second round picks every year? The fact that some of them turn into decent players does not make them have any real value, especially in this case when the return is a player who can play in the NHL right now. I mean the upside of a second round pick is turning into Lindback. Basically the Bolts traded players who might turn into Lindback into someone who is already Lindback. How do you lose in that scenario?

  86. DSF says:

    commonfan14: If the kid himself is actually involved with these rumours (which is almost certainly not the case), I’d be worried because it absolutely reeks of a lifelong Nucks fan playing head games with Edmonton and TO fans before crushing them by signing with his hometown boys.

    Strickland covers the Blues, is very we’ll connected and doesn’t make shit up.

  87. nathan says:

    “the only conclusion here”

    Doug McLachlan,

    If there’s only 1 conclusion there, you need to get out more.

    Lots of other scenarios. 1.Duck’s want unconditional picks. 2. They share Duck’s suspicions 3. They realize he needs to see their draft picks 4. Kid really gets one less entry year if he waits a week.

  88. godot10 says:

    ashley:

    If they draft anyone but Yakupov at #1, they risk having Yakupov show them up on another NHL team for a decade. A high probability.That part of obvious.

    If they draft anyone but Ryan Murray, they risk him being Nik-Lidstrom-lite for the next 15 years on another team, and showing them up for a decade.

    There is always more than one good player in the draft worthy of being the first pick. Would the Oilers have been that much worse off if they had Seguin and Landeskog instead of Hall and Nugent-Hopkins?

  89. DSF says:

    Captain Obvious: You do know that there are 30 second round picks every year?The fact that some of them turn into decent players does not make them have any real value, especially in this case when the return is a player who can play in the NHL right now.I mean the upside of a second round pick is turning into Lindback.Basically the Bolts traded players who might turn into Lindback into someone who is already Lindback.How do you lose in that scenario?

    Second round picks are so valuable that TB had three of them. :)

    The two they sent to Nashville were #37, acquired from Minnesota, and #50 acquired from Philly.

    They still have two first round picks and their own second round pick.

  90. DSF says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    LMHF#1,

    No,because David Staples says Karlsson has huge holes in his defensive game. (insert sarcasm)

    Do not understand R Murray argument. The argument is that his offense was stunted because he was on a bad team.The exact same argument would be equally applicable to Yakupov.Young Willis has article up positing Murray’s offensive comparables as being Alzner and Boumeester. Not sure either would be worthy of 1OV

    If Katz wants Yakupov, we’re taking him. I hope we pick Yak

    Actually, I think a very good comparable for Murray is Dan Hamhuis.

    Same size, very good skater and passer and solid defensively.

    Hamhuis scored 4 goals and 37 points last season with second unit PP time.

    Likely about the same role Murray would eventually end up with.

  91. fuzzy muppet says:

    If, hypotheticlly, Schultz is considering the Oilers, they better not draft murray or trade for a young defenseman.

    Hypothetically….

  92. Doug McLachlan says:

    nathan,

    I’m actually not quite that dense Nathan. Just continuing a thread wherien we endlessly speculate on subjects on which we have precious few actual facts but strong opinions.

    I wholeheartedly agree that there a many scenarios, including the notion that he may sign (contrary to the Stickland tweet that prompted this line of discussion) with an American team.

  93. TheOtherJohn says:

    In Hall’s year there was a consensus of 2 people at the top of the draft: Hall and Sequin;Last year there were 3 people in the consensus group at the top of the draft- RNH, Landeskog and Larsson.

    This year the consensus group at the top of the draft is Yak.

    So sure, it’s just like the last 2 years, but its not. At all!!!

    Now if the argument is that the Oiler scouting department disagrees with that consensus, that is an available argument to make. But I am unaware of a scouting agency that has anyone other than Yak at 1

  94. nathan says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    Endless, but at least with some actual facts after draft day and free agency.

  95. fuzzy muppet says:

    godot10,

    Youre better off taking Yakupov and signing two actual NHL defensemen than banking on Murray becoming Lidstrom. No one has Murray has the best player in this draft and its debatable if he’s the best defenseman available.

    Its much more likely that he’s chris phillips than Nick lidstrom.

  96. ashley says:

    godot10: If they draft anyone but Ryan Murray, they risk him being Nik-Lidstrom-lite for the next 15 years on another team, and showing them up for a decade.

    There is always more than one good player in the draft worthy of being the first pick. Would the Oilers have been that much worse off if they had Seguin and Landeskog instead of Hall and Nugent-Hopkins?

    A fair comment on first blush, except one of these drafts is not like the others.

    Most scouts talk of a large drop off in talent from Yakupov. This is a draft of Yakupov and then the rest of the guys. 2010 and 2011 were very different years. Imagine 2010 without Seguin. Would we have been debating taking Connolly, Fowler or maybe Tarasenko instead of Hall? Probably, but we would have been foolish to take anyone but Hall.

    Blue Bullet talked about Yakupov in the range of any top pick in the last few years. He has Murray second but noted that Murray would have been 7-8 in the previous year(s).

    When placing the bet, I’d prefer to take the bet with the highest probability of paying off.

  97. godot10 says:

    fuzzy muppet:
    If, hypotheticlly, Schultz is considering the Oilers, they better not draft murray or trade for a young defenseman.

    Hypothetically….

    The Oilers need more than one defenseman. Jason Garrison and Justin Schultz and Ryan Murray. That would make Taylor happy.

  98. godot10 says:

    ashley: A fair comment on first blush, except one of these drafts is not like the others.

    Most scouts talk of a large drop off in talent from Yakupov.This is a draft of Yakupov and then the rest of the guys.2010 and 2011 were very different years.Imagine 2010 without Seguin.Would we have been debating taking Connolly, Fowler or maybe Tarasenko instead of Hall?Probably, but we would have been foolish to take anyone but Hall.

    Blue Bullet talked about Yakupov in the range of any top pick in the last few years.He has Murray second but noted that Murray would have been 7-8 in the previous year(s).

    When placing the bet, I’d prefer to take the bet with the highest probability of paying off.

    The scouts not picking #1 have a vested interest in saying it is Yakupov and seven dwarves, since they don’t have the first pick.

    If it is truly Yakupov and the seven dwarves, where are are the offers for the #1 pick?

  99. TheOtherJohn says:

    Wouldn’t your flawed reasoning re scout not picking #1 say #1 and seven dwarves be skewered by Hall/Sequin, RNH/Landeskog/Larsson?

  100. speeds says:

    godot10: The scouts not picking #1 have a vested interest in saying it is Yakupov and seven dwarves, since they don’t have the first pick.

    If it is truly Yakupov and the seven dwarves, where are are the offers for the #1 pick?

    Not that we’d necessarily hear about them anyways, but I’d be fairly surprised if any really serious offers started coming in before Wednesday next week.

    Howson was on the radio yesterday, talking about just that. He also said that when a pick is involved for a significant player those deals tend to happen a bit earlier, but still generally don’t start to really come together until the Monday or Tuesday prior to the Friday draft.

    Most of the time draft pick moves tend to happen right before the draft – if the Oilers trade the pick it may not happen until an hour or two before the draft. It maybe not even happen until after TSN starts broadcasting, if it’s a deal involving moving down a couple slots.

  101. Woodguy says:

    ashley,

    Cory Pronman has Yakupov ahead of Hall at the same point in their careers.

    Yakupov broke Stamkos’ rookie scoring record for the Sting.

    Everyone had Yak first and Redline report, Pronman, Button and others have all said that there is one group of one (Yak), then a group of 7/8.

    If the reports of disagreement at Oiler HQ are real, I’d love to know why they are thinking what they are thinking.

  102. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    ashley,

    Cory Pronman has Yakupov ahead of Hall at the same point in their careers.

    Yakupov broke Stamkos’ rookie scoring record for the Sting.

    Everyone had Yak first and Redline report, Pronman, Button and others have all said that there is one group of one (Yak), then a group of 7/8.

    If the reports of disagreement at Oiler HQ are real, I’d love to know why they are thinking what they are thinking.

    Christ. Has anyone checked for sideburns?

  103. Captain Obvious says:

    ashley: A fair comment on first blush, except one of these drafts is not like the others.

    Most scouts talk of a large drop off in talent from Yakupov.This is a draft of Yakupov and then the rest of the guys.2010 and 2011 were very different years.Imagine 2010 without Seguin.Would we have been debating taking Connolly, Fowler or maybe Tarasenko instead of Hall?Probably, but we would have been foolish to take anyone but Hall.

    Blue Bullet talked about Yakupov in the range of any top pick in the last few years.He has Murray second but noted that Murray would have been 7-8 in the previous year(s).

    When placing the bet, I’d prefer to take the bet with the highest probability of paying off.

    This. A thousand times this. If Murray was four months older he wouldn’t have been a top ten pick. He isn’t in the same galaxy as Yakupov.

  104. Woodguy says:

    PAGING “STEVE SMITH”

    “STEVE SMITH” (if that’s your real name), reply if you are out there please.

  105. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: Christ. Has anyone checked for sideburns?

    He’s probably one of them independent thinking types.

    I wonder if the wealth of his family has anything to do with it?

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