DRAFT WEEK POST #9: MOCK

Kyle Woodlief’s Mock Draft is out, coming on the heels of an article he wrote yesterday suggesting there would be a lot of movement this year.

The mock draft is here.

The article on movement is here and I think reflects the current temp of the draft. There is a willingness to trade down by teams at the top and a completely flacid response from teams who might be looking to move up. I think that may change as we get closer to the draft, as Edmonton’s apparent wish to deal out of #1 should eventually find a connection.

Woodlief frames the issue well:

  • The Oilers could have happily selected Murray, Morgan Rielly (hint, hint) or Mathew Dumba second overall after Nail Yakupov came off the board. But now, how do you sell to your fan base using the first pick to take a player with significantly less upside than Yakupov?

Edmonton has done everything they can to tell the 29 other teams they are open for business and the internet is full of rumors and chaos. Bottom line: if they are still at #1 on Friday and pick anyone other than Yakupov, the story of this draft will be “drafting for need” and “not taking the best player available.”

I’m of the belief that the scouting department should have the courage of their convictions and have stated same. I also believe Steve Tambellini should make sure he’s satisfied that the scouting staff has done their due diligence. I am not in favor of the GM–or Kevin Lowe, or Craig MacTavish or even Daryl Katz–overruling the scouting department.

If you employ these people to do exactly the job you’re not allowing them to do–what does that say about your organization? Trust your board.

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139 Responses to "DRAFT WEEK POST #9: MOCK"

  1. SpotTheLoon says:

    Frankly, I wish I could hit the fast forward button and it was draft day. The lunacy of the rumours floating about is enough to push a fan over the edge. I agree that Stu should listen to his scouts and have the courage of conviction. I still believe that the BPA is Nail. I think that the vacuum of news from the Oilers is feeding the beast and nature does not like a vacuum. Tamby has said on installments of Oil Change that no announcement would be made of the team’s intentions as they want some “excitement” for the fans. I think if the insanity of rumours continues at this rate, we will all be dipping into the Prozac hospitality bowl by Wednesday or be in need of a vodka Valium frappuccino.

  2. Lowetide says:

    The thing about Yakupov is that he doesn’t really have a lot to be critical of imo. Size is a small issue, but he’s built like a brick outhouse. Concussions and the knee were a worry but he killed the combine.

    So we’re left tilting at windmills.

    Something doesn’t jive. If the Oilers were truly convinced of Nail these rumors would be put to rest. But since Nation Radio ended we have Dustin’s tweet and Woodlief’s article. What are the odds they are talking to the same guy?

    I don’t think it’s likely they are.

  3. Bad Seed says:

    Just because the guy has a morning show doesn’t mean he’s credible either. How is he on the inside all of a sudden?

  4. godot10 says:

    If it were truly Yakupov and the seven dwarves, the Oilers would be getting good offers for the #1 pick.

    They aren’t, which means Yakupov ain’t Snow White, but just another dwarf.

    There is always more than one good player in a draft worthy of the #1 pick when there is not a generational talent.

    Stamkos, Doughty, Pieterangelo.
    Hall, Seguin
    Nugent-Hopkins, Landeskog, Larsson, Courturier, Huberdeau.

    As long as you get one of those guys, you have done well with the pick.

    Team Murray.

  5. SpotTheLoon says:

    Lowetide,

    My concern is overthinking the selection. And once you start down that road, it can be a slippery slope. As you said last year when talking about Couturier, people look too close for too long and they find problems that can be magnified out of scope. It is certainly possible that this is happening within the organization but I am hopeful that Stu is not one of them and that he is allowed to make the pick based on a lot of hard work.

    It may be that things do fly differently. There could be a trade or the team picks based on need. I suppose anything is possible. To some extent, it proves the notion that one or a group can follow a structural decision making processed based on flawless logic to reach an illogical conclusion. Where did I put my frappuccino anyhow?

  6. cdean says:

    If the Oilers can not trade their # 1 then Yes the should draft Nail, but they should also be offering something to get another pick to get Reinhart. or if they can Shultz or even trading for another established 1 – 2 defenseman. Defense is where they need strength and that is where they should be looking but that does not mean drafting Murray first over all. The best bet is to draft Nail.

  7. Lowetide says:

    Bad Seed:
    Just because the guy has a morning show doesn’t mean he’s credible either.How is he on the inside all of a sudden?

    I think the way an insider becomes an insider is by releasing information that later turns out to be true. This is from March 21:

    Dustin Nielson ‏@nielson1260
    Not really surprising but hearing from source that I trust that Tom Renney won’t be back next season. Oil already looking at other options

  8. hunter1909 says:

    Everyone’s waiting to see the management mess that’s totally fucked up the Oilers since the last century try to act smarter than everyone else.

    Food for thought: What are the odds of the stupidest people outsmarting everyone else?

    Okay Lowetide: So they trade away a potential superstar…for a veteran who just as might hate the Oilers as Cole’s wife did. And a propect, maybe a bust like Kadri.

    Then they pick at a much lower position.

    Then, forever, Oiler fans who wanted Yakupov(90% of them apparently) can watch his career unfold, except playing for another team.

    Fast forward a few years, after the veteran has left town, the prospect busts…and one of the most proven to be stupidest management team imaginable continues in their perpetual learning process.

    Whether Oilers managers understands or even cares just how much potential for a Titanic style disaster this week is, remains to be seen.

  9. godot10 says:

    The only way you beat the teams with coke machines throughout their lineup like LA, St. Louis, and Boston is with puck moving defensemen. Otherwise, your talented forwards get neutralized. Puck-moving defensemen create the time and space for the talented forwards.

  10. Lowetide says:

    SpotTheLoon:
    Lowetide,

    My concern is overthinking the selection.And once you start down that road, it can be a slippery slope.As you said last year when talking about Couturier, people look too close for too long and they find problems that can be magnified out of scope.It is certainly possible that this is happening within the organization but I am hopeful that Stu is not one of them and that he is allowed to make the pick based on a lot of hard work.

    It may be that things do fly differently.There could be a trade or the team picks based on need.I suppose anything is possible.To some extent, it proves the notion that one or a group can follow a structural decision making processed based on flawless logic to reach an illogical conclusion.Where did I put my frappuccino anyhow?

    Agree completely. I think Grigorenko is also the victim of that kind of exposure to a certain extent. Maybe Murray too, I don’t know.

  11. gogliano says:

    I’d be shocked if Grigorenko drops to 11. I can see him dropping out of the top 5 but are the questions surrounding him really as great as they were Cherepanov?

  12. Lowetide says:

    hunter1909:

    Okay Lowetide: So they trade away a potential superstar…for a veteran who just as might hate the Oilers as Cole’s wife did. And a propect, maybe a bust like Kadri.

    Then they pick at a much lower position.

    Then, forever, Oiler fans who wanted Yakupov(90% of them apparently) can watch his career unfold, except playing for another team.

    Fast forward a few years, after the veteran has left town, the prospect busts…and one ofthe most proven to be stupidest management team imaginable continues in their perpetual learning process.

    Whether Oilers managers understands or caresjust how much potential for a Titanic style disaster there is remains to be seen.

    I can’t answer your question because it requires me to believe not taking Yakupov is the better plan. I don’t see any evidence, nor do I have all of the evidence.

    Those who do are apprently pondering the choice. That’s the discussion here. There are no sides I can see, save for everyone following thinks Yakupov is #1.

    It’s not a disagreement we’re having. Or at least I’m not disagreeing with you.

  13. Traktor says:

    I’m not too worried. I’m 99% sure that Edmonton will take Yakupov and if they don’t and he ends up a star it likely will mean Lowe, Tambellini, MacT, Bucky ect will all be done. Win/Win.

    Even if they end up with Murray I’m sure he will end up a good player.

    I’m just as interested in what Tambellini plans to do with Belanger/Horcoff and Edmonton’s goalie situation. Both need to be addressed and Tambellini isn’t going to be able to fix it with the 1st overall.

  14. VOR says:

    Godot 10,

    I don’t disagree with you. I just think that there is another way. The opposition has to get into your end in the first place. There are players who make that difficult.

    I don’t think I will ever forget watching team after team try to beat the Boys on the Bus by dumping and chasing. Team X would start out of its own end and make a great head man pass and watch it turn into a breakaway for the Oilers. The Oilers had uncanny anticipation, there may never have been three guys as good at picking off the pass as Gretzky, Kurri, and Tikannen.

    We won’t see the likes of Gretzky or Kurri any time soon but we might find another Tikannen. Tik was something very special, he’d be floating hopelessly out of position in the no man’s land around Center Ice and then suddenly be in possession of the puck and on the break. He was a abck breaker for any time that wanted to build sustained pressure against the Oilers.

    In junior that is Reider’s game. I am not comparing the two, I am just saying if the Oilers want to beat the coke machines they need a Tik, a guy so good at picking off passes that the other team gets frozen up worrying about him. Put that sort of guy with a great puck moving defenceman and add two or three skilled forecheckers and suddenly the current Oilers will be winning track meets around the league.

  15. spoiler says:

    Lowetide:

    Something doesn’t jive. If the Oilers were truly convinced of Nail these rumors would be put to rest. But since Nation Radio ended we have Dustin’s tweet and Woodlief’s article. What are the odds they are talking to the same guy?

    I don’t think it’s likely they are.

    Woodlief has made it pretty clear that these are RLR’s own thoughts and speculation. Everything he has written on this issue is couched in conditional language.

    He even stated one of the reasons for writing the article was internet rumours.

    He’s not talking to anybody.

    All we have is one unconfirmed tweet from someone who has skin in the game and that might just be the repeating of rumours itself.

    Pretty thin.

  16. SpotTheLoon says:

    godot10,

    How is drafting the next Chris Phillips going to ensure organizational success in the long term? Chris Phillips is very good at what he does. But if I was left with the choice of players like he or Taylor Hall, I know who I would pick.

    I remember people saying Phillips was ready to step into the NHL when he was drafted but it took some time for him to get comfortable. I fully recognize the need to improve the D on the club. But I think that the notion that Murray is going to make all those issues go away is wishful thinking. Let Murray develop into the player he will be. Likely a good second pairing D man.

  17. Rondo says:

    It makes no sense taking Reinhart #1. If they actually like him at #1 he would be a real sleeper pick. There would be no point stated they want him. The could easily have him in the top 5.

    So maybe the conversation went a different way and the reporter reported it wrong. You have to do some mental gymnastics to arrive at taking Reinhart #1.

  18. PunjabiOil says:

    I think the way an insider becomes an insider is by releasing information that later turns out to be true.

    That may be true, but is it possible the Oilers are intentionally misleading the media?

    Robin Brownlee, a connected guy, was confident the Oilers were going to take Seguin back in 2010. The media kept debating it, and afterwards Lowe remarked, ”We knew since May that we were going to take Hall, the debate was largely a media smokescreen.”

    You also had Stu MacGregor talk about keeping it a suspense for the fans.

    Other factors include bringing Yakupov to town first (and the only prospect to have dinner with Katz), both Lowe and Tambo confirming they will draft the BPA at 1st overall and not need, and Yakupov’s agent quoting Tambellini saying ”We like Nail. We want him. But we will make a decision the day before the draft”

    All this just points out to Nail being selected by Edmonton, IMO.

  19. Maverick says:

    godot10:
    The only way you beat the teams with coke machines throughout their lineup like LA, St. Louis, and Boston is with puck moving defensemen.Otherwise, your talented forwards get neutralized.Puck-moving defensemen create the time and space for the talented forwards.

    If this is your argument for a defenseman why are you not cheering for Morgen Reilly?? All indications are he is the better offensive defenseman.

  20. ASkoreyko says:

    PunjabiOil,

    I agree 100%. The only strong verbage we have really seen from the Oil brass about any of these prospects is Yakupov. Also we had that Tambo interview a little while back where he specifically stated that the draft is not to fill current roster needs and that he knows he needs to make some moves to affect the current roster now.

    They are going to take Yakupov and then we can all sit and watch 4 Superstars do their thing.

    Also if you were J Shultz and a team with 4 Elite young talents begging for someone to get them the puck was trying to sign you, why would you say no? He will pick up so many points just headmaning the puck it will be silly.

  21. DSF says:

    ASkoreyko:
    PunjabiOil,

    I agree 100%. The only strong verbage we have really seen from the Oil brass about any of these prospects is Yakupov. Also we had that Tambo interview a little while back where he specifically stated that the draft is not to fill current roster needs and that he knows he needs to make some moves to affect the current roster now.

    They are going to take Yakupov and then we can all sit and watch 4 Superstars do their thing.

    Also if you were J Shultz and a team with 4 Elite young talents begging for someone to get them the puck was trying to sign you, why would you say no? He will pick up so many points just headmaning the puck it will be silly.

    Wouldn’t Shultz get even more points playing for a team that didn’t finish 20th in goal scoring last season.

    Vancouver was 5th…Toronto was 10th.

    I’d wager there are more points available playing for either of those teams.

  22. godot10 says:

    Maverick: If this is your argument for a defenseman why are you not cheering for Morgen Reilly??All indications are he is the better offensive defenseman.

    Ryan Murray is the better puck mover. Passing is more important than rushing as a skill in a defenseman in the current NHL game. Hemsky, Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle need tape to tape passes at speed. That is what will negate the monster teams.

    In the under-18, where Ryan Murphy, Ryan Murray, and Morgan Rielly all participated, Murphy(the offensive wiz) had 13 points, Murray (the offensive “dud”) had 12 points, and Rielly (the offensive wiz) had 3 points.

  23. spoiler says:

    PunjabiOil:
    I think the way an insider becomes an insider is by releasing information that later turns out to be true.

    That may be true, but is it possible the Oilers are intentionally misleading the media?

    Robin Brownlee, a connected guy, was confident the Oilers were going to take Seguin back in 2010.The media kept debating it, and afterwards Lowe remarked, ”We knew since May that we were going to take Hall, the debate was largely a media smokescreen.”

    You also had Stu MacGregor talk about keeping it a suspense for the fans.

    Other factors include bringing Yakupov to town first (and the only prospect to have dinner with Katz), both Lowe and Tambo confirming they will draft the BPA at 1st overall and not need, and Yakupov’s agent quoting Tambellini saying ”We like Nail.We want him.But we will make a decision the day before the draft”

    All this just points out to Nail being selected by Edmonton, IMO.

    Stop bringing logic and reason into this issue.

  24. mustang says:

    DSF: Wouldn’t Shultz get even more points playing for a team that didn’t finish 20th in goal scoring last season.

    Vancouver was 5th…Toronto was 10th.

    I’d wager there are more points available playing for either of those teams.

    It’s hard to score goals when the dmen can’t move the puck out of the zone to a speeding forward
    with any conviction at all.

  25. Jamie says:

    So if we believe the story that management would prefer to draft Murray (or at least not draft Yak), what about the following scenario:

    Columbus sends Edmonton a 3rd round pick to swap #1 and 2 and Edmonton has the option to swap first round picks next year?

    If Columbus would prefer to pick first overall this would work for them and both teams have some incentive to win hockey games next year. I think it really depends on the type of rebuild that Columbus has in mind (and if they think the Oilers will actually get better). iirc, something like this was done in the past with lottery pics.

  26. Maverick says:

    godot10: Ryan Murray is the better puck mover.Passing is more important than rushing as a skill in a defenseman in the current NHL game. Hemsky, Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle need tape to tape passes at speed.That is what will negate the monster teams.

    In the under-18, where Ryan Murphy, Ryan Murray, and Morgan Rielly all participated, Murphy(the offensive wiz) had 13 points, Murray (the offensive “dud”) had 12 points, and Rielly (the offensive wiz) had 3 points.

    Perhaps. However, because of Ryan Murray’s September birth date he played in the U18 twice, his second time around was playing more due to age and maturity, higher TOI minutes? LT was right that stat really needs to be tracked! Anyways, if you were trying to compare them in the same tournament might be a difficult argument. If you were to compare their first time playing in the U18 then Murray at “0″ and Reilly had “3″. Not sure tournament numbers can be compared. I guess we have to use the scouts and the many draft publications to debate their offensive projections. I am sure both players will have long NHL careers and which ever team drafts the other will be happy with the selection.

    As for our beloved Oilers, No to Murray, Yes to Yakupov or Galchenyuk and Tambellini get off your butt and make the current team better with a seasoned veteran defender. No need to put pressure on a 18 year old defenseman to lead the Oilers. Unless the top defenseman is Pronger? Nope, is he Doughty? Nope, is he Bourque? Nope. Well then I guess drafting an offensive, potential 40 goal scorer with grit and sand paper might be available….

  27. DSF says:

    mustang: It’s hard to score goals when the dmen can’t move the puck out of the zone to a speeding forward
    with any conviction at all.

    Won’t have that problem In either Vancouver or Toronto since pretty much any player Shultz would be partnered with can also move the puck.

    Relying on a 22 year old rookie to solve the Oilers woeful 5V5 scoring is a little over the top.

  28. DSF says:

    Jamie:
    So if we believe the story thatmanagement would prefer to draft Murray (or at least not draft Yak), what about the following scenario:

    Columbus sends Edmonton a 3rd round pick to swap #1 and 2 and Edmonton has the option to swap first round picks next year?

    If Columbus would prefer to pick first overall this would work for them and both teams have some incentive to win hockey games next year.I think it really depends on the type of rebuild that Columbus has in mind (and if they think the Oilers will actually get better).iirc, something like this was done in the past with lottery pics.

    It’s highly likely that Columbus trades Nash before the draft.

    They are likely going to end up with two first round picks as a result of a Nash trade so I think it’s highly unlikely they will be trading up.

  29. Rondo says:

    How would Adam Larsson rank in this draft?

  30. Jamie says:

    DSF,

    While it is possible they will have 2 first round picks, I don’t see how that will affect whether they want to move up to number 1. That depends on how their list looks, how much they like Yak and whether they are planning another lottery pick next year or not. But if you are in personal communication with Howson and know their plans please feel free to pass them along.

  31. fuzzy muppet says:

    Rondo:
    How would Adam Larsson rank in this draft?

    Corey Pronman has said he would be the #1 D-man. Still would have Yak at #1 OV

  32. DawnM says:

    PunjabiOil,

    Really hope you’re right. All these other suggestions are just crazy talk. I might just cry myself to sleep or drink myself into oblivion if I have to watch Yakupov put the puck in the back of our net for the next 15+ yrs. I might be “just a fan”. But isn’t that what this whole thing is about? Not saying fans know better than the pros by any means. They do pay the bills tho…

  33. Rondo says:

    fuzzy muppet,

    Kovalchuk would like to have Yakupov, With Parise leaving they could use a winger.

    New investor for NJ.

  34. ASkoreyko says:

    DSF,

    He certainly might, but the big year for him will not be this one upcoming but the season afterwards. At that point Hall and Eberle will be on their 4th year with RNH playing the last year of his entry level contract and Yakupov having hopefully taken a step forward as well. I think you would start to see all that talent starting to turn the corner 5v5 as well. If the Oilers PP continues to be so dominant Schultz can still rack up the points on the PP.

    As long as he doesn’t thinking about the competency of the Oilers braintrust to plug roster holes the optics of that scenario should be enticing. Most casual observers would look at the Oilers situation and draw a comparison to Chicago and Pittsburgh, whether that is even close remains to be seen, but it should be an easy situational association to sell to any potential FA’s.

    Also the Canucks have been very effective in convincing most of their core to take hometown discounts, Schultz agent should be aware of this fact and that could be a major point of concern if this kid wants to earn quickly (although if he did you have to wonder why he chose not to sign and delay an immediate payday).

  35. spoiler says:

    Rondo:
    fuzzy muppet,

    Kovalchuk would like to have Yakupov,With Pariseleaving they could use a winger.

    New investor for NJ.

    Parise might not leave. But that has possibilities.

  36. Bank Shot says:

    DSF: Wouldn’t Shultz get even more points playing for a team that didn’t finish 20th in goal scoring last season.

    Vancouver was 5th…Toronto was 10th.

    I’d wager there are more points available playing for either of those teams.

    Nope. In Vancouver Gardiner would have to share PP time with guys like Edler, Bieksa, and jason Garrison who is begging to sign there.

    In Toronto its Phaneuf, Liles, and “the greatest young puckmover in the history of the game” Gardiner.

    In Edmonton its just Whitney.

    If Schultz wants the best chance at playing a tonne of minutes and putting up points then Edmonton is the most logical place to go.

    If he is motivated by other things like winning, location, or weather then he will sign elsewhere.

  37. Nostradumbass says:

    The Oilers don’t wont Yakupov, I’m not sure the hints could be any clearer.

    The Oilers do no draft Russians, two in the Lowe era if I
    recall correctly

    You can go back to the Gagner draft year when Cherypanov (sp) started dropping, I can remember some talking head speculating that the Oilers would take him at 15 and Pierre McGuire starting laughing “the Oilers are not drafting a player from Russia”.

    Take a look at other strong hints;

    I’ve heard the joke about how the Oilers are probably the first team to win the lottery and be upset from numerous media heads now, enough to make me think someone in the organization said it first.

    The problem the Oilers have is the player they like (Murray) is probably not going to make it past 2, Woodlief said as much in his radio interview the other day.

    Add to that you have Tencer and Spector saying the Oilers will not trade out of the number 1 spot.

    And lastly you have Stauffer indicating two organizations he knows rate somebody better then Yak, I would gather those two are Cbus and the Oilers.

    So the Oilers don’t like the consensus #1 as much as the dman but can’t trade down because their player won’t be there.

    You’re left with only one option being to take the player you want at one, the only issue being of course fan perception which is why you have your house organs dig out any half ass angle (oooohhh…the Kremlin will pressure Yakupov) to try soften the landing.

    Ryan Murray will be the pick

  38. Marc says:

    Woodguy

    Allow me to make a devil’s advocate response to your comment in the last thread about not trading Gagner for the 7 pick. For what it’s worth, I don’t think there’s any chance that the Oilers will trade him to get back in the top ten – it would be a high risk/high reward move, and Tambellini just doesn’t have a history of making that kind of move (I firmly believe that Yakupov will be the pick for the same reason).

    I do think you can make a respectable argument in favour of trading Gagner, or even Gagner+32nd+a good prospect like Marincin for the 7th pick though. So here goes:

    If the scouts, who have done a pretty good job identifying talent over the past couple of years, are saying that one of Yakupov, Murray or Reinhart will be the best player in this draft, and there is a chance of getting two of them, then you have to seriously consider doing it. If the scouts are right and you genuinely have got the best guy in the class (whehter it’s the guy you pick with the first pick or the guy you pick with the 7th pick), and another guy who is in the top five, or even top three, then you have absolutely killed it that year.

    In terms of the price, Gagner is a good center who plays against middling competition and puts up 40-50 points a season. He’s still young enough that he could make the leap to 60 points a seaosn, but he could also just be what he looks like now – a good 2nd line center who puts up 40-50 points a season. He has only two more seasons to go until you have start buying UFA years, so he’s won’t be a particularly cheap way of getting those 40-50 points a season either. Players like this can be replaced.

    Second line centers who score 40-50 points are relatively plentiful. Toronto has a bunch of them. Kyle Wellwood came off the street and did it. Roy is available from Buffalo. The bottom line is that a player whose production can be easliy replaced should not be the reason that you don’t acquire a better player, which if the Oilers scouts are right about Murray and Reinhart, they would certainly be.

    Marincin and the 32nd pick are magic beans – a very nice looking bean in the case of Marincin and probably something that looks like Lander, Pitlick or Musil in the case of the pick – but beans none the less. Again neither should be the reason that you don’t acquire an elite player (remember when the Leafs didn’t deal for Pronger because they wouldn’t give up Steen? That was wise.)

    It all comes down to how much you trust your scouts. If they really believe that Murray or Reinhart could be the very best player in this draft, and there is a possibility of getting one of them in addition to Yakupov, who most scouts seems to believe is the best player in the class, then they should be moving heaven and earth to do so, especially if the hole that creates in the roster is something as easy to fill as second line center.

    End of devil’s advocacy.

  39. mustang says:

    DSF: Won’t have that problem In either Vancouver or Toronto since pretty much any player Shultz would be partnered with can also move the puck.

    Relying on a 22 year old rookie to solve the Oilers woeful 5V5 scoring is a little over the top.

    I never said they would be relying on Shultz to solve all the problems, I was just stating a fact about the lack of scoring. I think he could be a nice addition to the Oilers blue in the future if he wanted. Seems as Tambo is in charge of the selling the idea to him, I doubt he comes here, unless he has his own reasons.

  40. Woodguy says:

    If the scouts, who have done a pretty good job identifying talent over the past couple of years, are saying that one of Yakupov, Murray or Reinhart will be the best player in this draft, and there is a chance of getting two of them,

    But based on what many are saying, the best of this draft might not be better than Gagner, save Yak.

    If there is one A+ in the draft, some A’s and a lot of B+’s, then why trade a B+, and Marincin, and 32nd just to get one?

    Waaay to much.

  41. Woodguy says:

    Maybe that’s why Lou kept his pick this year?

    NJD gets #1 + something that’s not 32nd and EDM gets Larsson + 29?

    I’d take Larsson or OEL for #1 straight up.

  42. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    Maybe that’s why Lou kept his pick this year?

    NJD gets #1 + something that’s not 32nd and EDM gets Larsson + 29?

    I’d take Larsson or OEL for #1 straight up.

    Interesting. Larsson has a year under his belt, and he’s RH. He had a back injury but failing that would seem to be an exceptional candidate for the Oilers.

  43. Bad Seed says:

    Woodguy,

    I’d be cool with that.

  44. DSF says:

    Jamie:
    DSF,

    While it is possible they will have 2 first round picks, I don’t see how that will affect whether they want to move up to number 1.That depends on how their list looks, how much they like Yak and whether they are planning another lottery pick next year or not.But if you are in personal communication with Howson and know their plans please feel free to pass them along.

    Well, I’m not but if you take the time to read what Arace and Portzline have to say, they indicate the Jackets have no interest in trading up and may, in fact trade down.

    I doubt drafting a another Russian is high on their to do list.

  45. DSF says:

    Marc:
    Woodguy

    Allow me to make a devil’s advocate response to your comment in the last thread about not trading Gagner for the 7 pick.For what it’s worth, I don’t think there’s any chance that the Oilers will trade him to get back in the top ten – it would be a high risk/high reward move, and Tambellini just doesn’t have a history of making that kind of move (I firmly believe that Yakupov will be the pick for the same reason).

    I do think you can make a respectable argument in favour of trading Gagner, or even Gagner+32nd+a good prospect like Marincin for the 7th pick though. So here goes:

    If the scouts, who have done a pretty good job identifying talent over the past couple of years, are saying that one of Yakupov, Murray or Reinhart will be the best player in this draft, and there is a chance of getting two of them, then you have to seriously consider doing it. If the scouts are right and you genuinely have got the best guy in the class (whehter it’s the guy you pick with the first pick or the guy you pick with the 7th pick), and another guy who is in the top five, or even top three, then you have absolutely killed it that year.

    In terms of the price, Gagner is a good center who plays against middling competition and puts up 40-50 points a season.He’s still young enough that he could make the leap to 60 points a seaosn, but he could also just be what he looks like now – a good 2nd line center who puts up 40-50 points a season.He has only two more seasons to go until you have start buying UFA years, so he’s won’t be a particularly cheap way of getting those 40-50 points a season either. Players like this can be replaced.

    Second line centers who score 40-50 points are relatively plentiful.Toronto has a bunch of them.Kyle Wellwood came off the street and did it.Roy is available from Buffalo. The bottom line is that a player whose production can be easliy replaced should not be the reason that you don’t acquire a better player, which if the Oilers scouts are right about Murray and Reinhart, they would certainly be.

    Marincin and the 32nd pick are magic beans – a very nice looking bean in the case of Marincin and probably something that looks like Lander, Pitlick or Musil in the case of the pick – but beans none the less. Again neither should be the reason thatyou don’t acquire an elite player (remember when the Leafs didn’t deal for Pronger because they wouldn’t give up Steen?That was wise.)

    It all comes down to how much you trust your scouts.If they really believe that Murray or Reinhart could be the very best player in this draft, and there is a possibility of getting one of them in addition to Yakupov, who most scouts seems to believe is the best player in the class, then they should be moving heaven and earth to do so, especially if the hole that creates in the roster is something as easy to fill as second line center.

    End of devil’s advocacy.

    Just an excellent post.

  46. TheOtherJohn says:

    Far and away best explanation I have heard re NJD 1st

    For our team where they are at right now i would prefer Bogosian to Larsson for 1OV but would need more from Jets than their 2nd (39th). Like Larsson though. Love OEL and would move 1OV for elite ELC defender in heart beat, just not sure Maloney bites on OEL. How about Gormley, Phx 1st (27? 28) and Boyd Gordon for 1OV and Belanger ….. would even add another pick (our third or Ana 2013 2nd) or Omark.

    In terms of our roser: Our 3C that wins face offs, kills penalties and plays tough fwds is set potentially for 3-5 years. We get a top 4 D man on ELC and a late 1st pick. Fills 2 holes and gives Stu another late 1st bullet. 27th and 32 gets you to 20th?

    Does Murray project much better than Gormley?

  47. danny says:

    Larsson for #1? The guy that went 4th overall last year?

    Isn’t that quite a gamble? As much as drafting a D first overall, which has proven to be a gamble?

    I can understand OEL. The guy is ready for top pairing minutes on the Oilers. Larsson was 7th or 8th on the Devils. He’s a long way from being a sure shot top pairing guy, even on the Oilers.

    I know hes a kid, but unless youre very freakin sure hes going to progess like OEL, its a losers bet. He was scratched for a 5’10, 190lb undrafted 30 yr old in the playoffs. I’m not so sure he’s a guaranteed stud.

  48. Woodguy says:

    If you can get the Larsson thing done and come away with 29 + 32, you can probably trade up enough to grab Samuelsson.

    Larsson + Samuelsson would be a pretty good Friday.

  49. Woodguy says:

    danny,

    Isn’t that quite a gamble? As much as drafting a D first overall, which has proven to be a gamble?

    Its all predicated on the belief that the Oilers don’t want Yak at #1.

    If they do, then take him.

    Larsson projects better than any D in the draft, so why not get him instead?

    Also,

    Larsson played 2nd toughs all year.

  50. Lowetide says:

    Plus Larsson has a year’s NHL experience so he’s closer to the cluster.

  51. Ryan says:

    We’re all like kids waiting to open our present on Christmas. Did mom get us the toy truck we wanted or another wool sweater?

    The only real question remaining is where is Rickibear and his goals to assist ratio theory? :)

  52. sliderule says:

    Woodguy I hope that your right.

    I have heard Devils want a goalie but I like your idea better.

  53. godot10 says:

    Marincin is less of a magic bean than anything one picks at #7. And one certainly would never make the trade before one saw who was sitting there at #7. Marincin already has been somewhat derisked as a prospect two years out from the draft. Any player/defenseman draft at #7 may come with slightly higher upside potential, but more risk at this point.

    One shouldn’t have to add a single thing to a Gagner for a #7 deal. Gagner is an overpay by himself. He is an established 2nd line centre, at 22 years of age, with upside potential still possible. It takes players with big brains but ordinary physical skills more time to develop than phenoms. That plus, the Oilers don’t anyone to cover Gagner’s spot next year.

    IF Gagner is a “problem”, it is not one that has to be solved this summer.

  54. Ryan says:

    Marc,

    Marc, you’re obviously an intelligent poster here, but god help us if the Oilers are trading Gagner to get another top ten pick.

    Some of us want to see playoff hockey before Jonathan Willis’s future grandchildren learn how to drive a car.

  55. Rondo says:

    Larsson would be a big help to Klefbom.

    It could have gone down like this

    Edm we will trade #1 pick and 31st pick for Larsson + your 1st round pick 2013

    NJ says lets exchange 31 for 29 2012 and we will do it.

  56. godot10 says:

    Larsson did not return to his established level of play after his injury. He was top 6 before. Press box after.

    Injury attrition at defense significant (Odelein, Stadujar, Lynch). One’s prospect pool at defense is never too deep.

    Right now Larsson is damaged goods until he restablishes his level of play before his injury.

  57. DSF says:

    Ryan:
    Marc,

    Marc, you’re obviously an intelligent poster here, but god help us if the Oilers are trading Gagner to get another top ten pick.

    Some of us want to see playoff hockey before Jonathan Willis’s future grandchildren learn how to drive a car.

    Thing is….you can replace Gagner’s production on the free agent market AND get another pick.

    That was Marc’s point I believe.

  58. Captain Obvious says:

    Trading Larsson for the #1 pick is a horrible idea. He went #4 last year and that was an overdraft. There is no upside to his game and he was a healthy scratch all playoffs. He has a 100% chance of being a quality NHL player but a very low chance of being a star. I hate this idea so much I’d rather have Schenn (who I consider to have negative value) and the #5. Some chance of getting nothing out of the deal but at least that way there is a chance of hitting a homerun. Larsson, on the other hand, is pure blah.

    If you have the #1 pick you need to get a star. Yakupov is the only star in this draft. If you trade him you are hedging your bets. That’s fine, but there has to be a scenario where if things turn out you win the deal.

    Finally, talking about Larsson in the same breadth as Ekman is ludicrous.

  59. DSF says:

    Terry Jones ‏@sunterryjones

    So is there an Oilers press conference Monday or Tuesday? Or no coach til after the draft? Wanna know when to go back to work.

  60. sliderule says:

    I think Yakupov is going to be a superstar.

    The Oil for some reason don’t want him.

    Larsson is better than the other D prospects the oil are drooling over.

  61. Rondo says:

    Lowetide,

    If NJ trades their #29 pick they do not have a pick until #60 in this years draft.

  62. danny says:

    Pronman, coincidentally, ranks Murray #8 in this draft. Not sure we can put much weight in one mans comment that Larsson would be the #1 D in this draft. Larsson is 10 months older than Murray. He has 65 games more experience. The only thing hes really proven, is that hes a great prospect that needs to develop to become a good NHLer.

    Trading the #1 overall, for a guy that would go #4 in a redraft the previous season, plus a pick in the range of Tyler Pitlick, is, historically speaking, a poor strategy.

  63. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    Lowetide,

    If NJ trades their #29 pick they do not have a pick until #60 in this years draft.

    Yes. But they’d be trading for #1 overall.

  64. Woodguy says:

    Captain Obvious:
    Trading Larsson for the #1 pick is a horrible idea.He went #4 last year and that was an overdraft.There is no upside to his game and he was a healthy scratch all playoffs.He has a 100% chance of being a quality NHL player but a very low chance of being a star.I hate this idea so much I’d rather have Schenn (who I consider to have negative value) and the #5.Some chance of getting nothing out of the deal but at least that way there is a chance of hitting a homerun.Larsson, on the other hand, is pure blah.

    If you have the #1 pick you need to get a star.Yakupov is the only star in this draft.If you trade him you are hedging your bets.That’s fine, but there has to be a scenario where if things turn out you win the deal.

    Finally, talking about Larsson in the same breadth as Ekman is ludicrous.

    Why?

  65. Woodguy says:

    danny,

    Trading the #1 overall, for a guy that would go #4 in a redraft the previous season, plus a pick in the range of Tyler Pitlick, is, historically speaking, a poor strategy.

    In my scenario Oilers get the 29th and keep the 32nd.

  66. TheOtherJohn says:

    SRule

    For my part, I don’t usually say 19 year old kids have hit their developmental ceiling but 18 pts in 65 games is not a bad start for the offensively challenged Larsson. His stats are kinda in line with Erik Karlsson’s numbers in the SEL and first season in the NHL. But the two of them probably have no upside to their games too.

    Godot

    Realize this runs contrary to the Oiler press releases you regularly get from Dan and Bob but Marincin at age 20 was a healthy scratch in the AHL playoffs. That is the Oiler organization did not think he was capable of plaing in the AHL playoffs this year, at all. Not injured, healthy scratched. As challenged as you clearly believe A Larsson is, he was drafted a year later than Marincin and played 65 games in the show and 5/24 games in the NHL playoffs at age 19. Think playing SC playoffs harder than playing the Marlies but that’s just me

    Now I like Marincin but would suggest that he remains magic beans for awhile yet

  67. Rondo says:

    Lowetide,

    Good point.

    I like WOODGUY’s scenario. But who would be the player Oilers would add in this trade?

  68. danny says:

    Woodguy: Why?

    OEL played last season as a top pairing guy against top opposition, he has been compared favorably to Lidstrom. The team and GM have been gushing over him.

    It’s fair to say that Oliver is a much stronger bet than Adam.

  69. TheOtherJohn says:

    Danny

    Re redraft: Did you just jump upon the heretofor relatively small Sean Couturier fan club? RNH Has remarkable vision and was killer on PP, Landeskog had a very very good year but I was very impressed with Philly playing SC in so many tough situations

  70. danny says:

    Woodguy:
    danny,

    Trading the #1 overall, for a guy that would go #4 in a redraft the previous season, plus a pick in the range of Tyler Pitlick, is, historically speaking, a poor strategy.

    In my scenario Oilers get the 29th and keep the 32nd.

    Yeah… #4 in a redraft (Larsson) and 29th (range of Pitlick)

  71. danny says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Danny

    Re redraft: Did you just jump upon the heretofor relatively small Sean Couturier fan club? RNH Has remarkable vision and was killer on PP, Landeskog had a very very good year but I was very impressed with Philly playing SC in so many tough situations

    I’d definitely re-draft Couturier over Larsson. Hamilton too… so Larsson would likely slide to 5th imo

  72. TheOtherJohn says:

    You think Dougie Hamilton year beating up 16-19 year boys was better than Larsson’s rookie year in show? I disagree with you Particularly as D is so much harder to learn in NHL

    Re OEL here is TOI against LAK in last 5 games: 32:28,24:53, 23:53,20:01, 24:19

    Would you trade him? I would not. Love Oil to get him though!

  73. Woodguy says:

    danny: OEL played last season as a top pairingguy against top opposition, he has been compared favorably to Lidstrom. The team and GM have been gushing over him.

    It’s fair to say that Oliver is a much stronger bet than Adam.

    But OEL didn’t even play in the NHL in the year after he was drafted.

    The year after he played 3rd toughs, did good.

    This was his 3rd year after being drafted.

    This was Larsson’s 1st year after being drafted and he played 2nd toughs, did ok, not great.

    I think you guys are selling Larsson short.

    I love both of them.

  74. Woodguy says:

    danny: Yeah… #4 in a redraft (Larsson) and 29th (range of Pitlick)

    You are missing that they kept their 32nd.

    They get Larsson who projects better than any D in this draft, plus 29th and 32nd.

    They should be able to use 29 + 32 to move up and get Samuelsson.

  75. Jamie says:

    DSF,

    Your original response was that Columbus would not want to pick #1 because they may get another first round pick. That doesn’t make much sense to me. If you want to change the argument that they don’t want to pick a russian because of their history I will agree with you.

    That is why in my original post I said IF Columbus wanted the first selection. They don’t necessarily have to pick Yak but if they have Murray rated higher they could get him instead. The thought more was that a fair price for swapping picks.

  76. fuzzy muppet says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    Phoenix needs a star to boost attendance. Yakupov has to look tempting. Ekman-Larsson, despite being an excellent hockey player, is not a ticket selling star

  77. Rondo says:

    The idea of having Larsson with Klefbom and 29th and 32nd pick that could turn into 20th?This makes some sense to Edmonton.

    The idea of having Kovalchuck with Yakupov and the possibility of Praise leaving NJ, t his makes some sense to NJ

    This sounds better than picking Murray first or Reinhart .

  78. Woodguy says:

    danny: Yeah… #4 in a redraft (Larsson) and 29th (range of Pitlick)

    This is a scenario where the Oilers don’t want Yak.

    In my scenario they end up with a better D than any available in this draft, + 29th and 32nd.

    That’s better than most scenarios.

  79. sliderule says:

    With Larsson we would get a defenceman who two years from know could be a number one.

    If we could package up our pick and Devils we might be able to get the tough forward we covet.

  80. Rondo says:

    fuzzy muppet,

    There are windows that open and close ,with OEL I think that window has shut.

    Larsson we may have a chance get and this would be the time since he didn’t play much in the playoffs he was a healthy scratch .

  81. fuzzy muppet says:

    Rondo,

    I agree , I wouldn’t trade OEL from a strictly hockey stance, but Yakupov financially is enticing for a team with a new owner looking to help fill an arena that has lagged in attendance in the past.

  82. spoiler says:

    The only thing about Larsson is NJD drafted him out of need last year. I don’t see anything in their org that leads me to believe that need has changed. I also think it is real tough to convince GMs to trade Dmen for wingers, even one of Yakupov’s potential calibre.

  83. Lowetide says:

    spOILer: That’s the problem right there. How do you get defensemen? Draft them. Where don’t you draft them? #1 overall. Maybe they should trade #1 for #11 and #16 lol? Nuttier than a fruitcake, this draft.

  84. DSF says:

    Jamie:
    DSF,

    Your original response was that Columbus would not want to pick #1 because they may get another first round pick.That doesn’t make much sense to me. If you want to change the argument that they don’t want to pick a russian because of their history I will agree with you.

    That is why in my original post I said IF Columbus wanted the first selection.They don’t necessarily have to pick Yak but if they have Murray rated higher they could get him instead.The thought more was that a fair price for swapping picks.

    The word from Columbus:

    http://www.bluejacketsxtra.com/content/stories/2012/06/17/no-clear-answers-as-draft-nears.html

  85. spoiler says:

    Lowetide:
    spOILer: That’s the problem right there. How do you get defensemen? Draft them. Where don’t you draft them? #1 overall. Maybe they should trade #1 for #11 and #16 lol? Nuttier than a fruitcake, this draft.

    Yup. It’s a real pickle.

    They mustn’t be too convinced on Marincin, Gernat, Musil or Klefbom either. Otherwise they would jus find a veteran stop gap and draft Yak.

  86. spoiler says:

    It’s probably a good thing they don’t have these golfers miked today.

  87. Lowetide says:

    Gawd, they’re playing like me! Not really, I’m horrible.

    I think they probably feel one or two of those kids will turn into NHLers, but they may be feeling like the fourth cornerstone should be a D. That’s my guess, anyway.

  88. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: . It’s a real pickle.

    They mustn’t be too convinced on Marincin, Gernat, Musil or Klefbom either. Otherwise they would jus find a veteran stop gap and draft Yak.

    Given the apparent level of talent available at this draft, grabbing a vet and drafting Yak is what I’d do.

    Grabbing a B+ Dman who is best in a field of B-’s doesn’t make him an A

  89. bookje says:

    sliderule:
    I think Yakupov is going to be a superstar.

    The Oil for some reason don’twant him.

    Larsson is better than the other D prospects the oil are drooling over.

    Why do you say the Oilers don’t want him? All three management guys have said that when you have the first pick overall, you need to pick the most talented player available.

  90. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: Given the apparent level of talent available at this draft, grabbing a vet and drafting Yak is what I’d do.

    Grabbing a B+ Dman who is best in a field of B-’s doesn’t make him an A

    I blame Rielly for getting hurt. In fact I blame ALL the prospects for getting hurt this year.

  91. bookje says:

    Lowetide:
    spOILer: That’s the problem right there. How do you get defensemen? Draft them. Where don’t you draft them? #1 overall. Maybe they should trade #1 for #11 and #16 lol? Nuttier than a fruitcake, this draft.

    Wait, that’s crazy, I can’t believe they are trying to do that, I am cancelling my seasons tickets right now as the Oilers management team are clearly off their rocker and this team is hopeless.

  92. Captain Obvious says:

    I missed the draft pick part of the Larsson scenario. That makes it more palatable. The problem I have, however, is that Larsson, just like Murray, doesn’t have the high end offensive upside of Ekman and Karlsson (for instance).

    I’m with Danny, I’d take Larsson #5 on a redraft. That’s still a high end talent, but the #1 overall pick is of almost infinite value. You can’t trade a can’t miss star for someone who isn’t a star.

  93. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: I blame Rielly for getting hurt.In fact I blame ALL the prospects for getting hurt this year.

    That’s a great point.

    Crazy year.

    5 years from the now the best forward and D could easily come from outside the top 5.

  94. Lowetide says:

    I didn’t know Samuelsson was the best forward until DSF told me. Crazy.

  95. Woodguy says:

    Captain Obvious:
    I missed the draft pick part of the Larsson scenario.That makes it more palatable.The problem I have, however, is that Larsson, just like Murray, doesn’t have the high end offensive upside of Ekman and Karlsson (for instance).

    I’m with Danny, I’d take Larsson #5 on a redraft.That’s still a high end talent, but the #1 overall pick is of almost infinite value. You can’t trade a can’t miss star for someone who isn’t a star.

    Then you also missed the part where this whole conversation is predicated on the Oilers not wanting to draft Yak at #1.

    Pretty sure almost 100% of the poster here take Yak, including everyone in this thread.

  96. Dalton says:

    What if no one is offering trades to EDM to move up in the draft because they’re spiteful against Edmonton? Like, they’ve started to hate EDM? Like, “go ahead and take your BPA again and we’ll see you on the ice.”

    I can see teams not wanting to make trades with EDM because they don’t want to give them the last few keys to the kingdom…

  97. Woodguy says:

    Dalton: What if no one is offering trades to EDM to move up in the draft because they’re spiteful against Edmonton? Like, they’ve started to hate EDM? Like, “go ahead and take your BPA again and we’ll see you on the ice.”

    The only GM I know who does anything out of spite is Kevin Lowe.

  98. Kris11 says:

    I haven’t posted in a long time, but thought I’d weigh in on Yakupov.

    1. I might be okay with a good GM trading Yakupov for a fortune. But we don’t have a good GM. He’ll botch the deal for sure. We should all be praying for no deal. And I haven’t heard a rumor about anyone offering a fortune, like OEL.

    2. I think they’ll keep Yakupov. (Thankfully!) Management and ownership really do seem to believe that the ideal hockey team is modelled on the 80′s Oilers: lots of high-end offense and great goaltending. (They believe in their own myth.) When they get together to make a final decision, they won’t be able to resist adding another talent like Yakupov to recreate the high-powered glory of the 80′s. (This is also good for ticket prices. in the new arena.) I don’t blmae them. Offense is expensive and they have a chance to buy enough for even the distant future now.

    I suspect they’re worried that Yakupov is a loose cannon. (The Oilers are Communists in wanting everyone to tow the line.) His interviews make him seem lmore like a potential Souray-bomb. But they’ll realize that he can be traded for as much or more than he can be now if he’s a 40 goal-scoring loose cannon. Really, that’s why I wouldn’t deal Yakupov either for anything less than Dougtty, OEL, or Petr. (Which will never happen.) Even if you want to move Yakupov two years from now, he’ll be worth at least as much. Trading him now is panicky stupidity, (More formally, he’s the asset in this draft who nearly everyone expects is most likely to increase in value. Why move him like he’s a pending UFA?

    3. If they can keep Smyth and grab Yakupov. There’s lots of cap room for defense, either via trade or UFA. There are lots of prospects in the pipeline on D. If they don’t blow this, the Oilers will finally beba good team (again? I forgot what good is like) next year and for a long time in the future,

  99. Captain Obvious says:

    Woodguy: Then you also missed the part where this whole conversation is predicated on the Oilers not wanting to draft Yak at #1.

    Pretty sure almost 100% of the poster here take Yak, including everyone in this thread.

    I like that way of putting it. If we suppose the Oilers are going to do something stupid, then what is the least stupid thing they could do.

    In that case trading for Larsson and the #29 pick is:

    1) less stupid than drafting Murray at #1
    2) less stupid than drafting Reinhart at #1.
    3) less stupid than trading for Schenn and #5 and then drafting Reinhart.

  100. Traktor says:

    Why would NJ trade Larsson? Get real.

  101. Maverick says:

    This whole Larsson idea is a little interesting. A player with 65 regular season game experience, the Oilers liked him last year, the Devils need offense when Parise leaves and Kovalchuk becoming Yakupov’s mentor. Interesting. With the uncertainty of the Devil’s draft picks and the league in coming years this might be their last chance to get a sure fire offensive player.

    I liked Larsson last year, much more so than I like Ryan Murray this year, its a compelling idea.

    Here is a part of an article from Robin Brownlee last year before the draft, talking to Stu MacGregor.

    MACGREGOR’S TAKE

    Scouting Report: “A great two-way defenseman with good offensive puck-moving ability. He’s strong and he competes hard on the boards in and around the net.”

    Projection: “A one or a two. Probably a two.”

    Best Case Scenario: “His most potential? Possibly a one.”

    Concerns: “He’s a good skater but he’s not a great skater. His offence is only OK at this point.”

    The whole article: http://oilersnation.com/2011/5/7/fthm-part-vi-adam-larsson

    Odds of it happening, pretty slim but still interesting.

  102. rickithebear says:

    Lowetide: I didn’t know Samuelsson was the best forward until DSF told me. Crazy.

    Projected 40 even points in NHL puts him top 5 for forwards.

  103. Traktor says:

    Lowetide:
    I didn’t know Samuelsson was the best forward until DSF told me. Crazy.

    Yup. Vancouver was rumored to like him or something and now he is something special.

    I mean, at least wait until Vancouver drafts him before you start pumping his tires.

  104. Kris11 says:

    Just to be clear, I don’t think any of the trading down deals that have been discussed are good value,

    IMO.

  105. Maverick says:

    Captain Obvious: I like that way of putting it.If we suppose the Oilers are going to do something stupid, then what is the least stupid thing they could do.

    In that case trading for Larsson and the #29 pick is:

    1)less stupid than drafting Murray at #1
    2) less stupid than drafting Reinhart at #1.
    3) less stupid than trading for Schenn and #5 and then drafting Reinhart.

    Agreed!

  106. OilClog says:

    Woodguy: That’s a great point.

    Crazy year.

    5 years from the now the best forward and D could easily come from outside the top 5.

    How’s that different then most years?

    No matter what happens.. Unless injuries..Yak is going to score. My biggest fear is, its against us..often.. fired up RW Russian with a point to prove, sounds like someone out east a few years back. I’ll find my defense elsewhere, this is a gift.

    Everything is typical Oiler soap opera drama blah blah blah… Winning can’t come soon enough.

  107. Traktor says:

    rickithebear: Projected 40 even points in NHL puts him top 5 for forwards.

    LMAO

    Are you using the same stats that said RNH is Steve Kelly.

  108. spoiler says:

    bookje: Why do you say the Oilers don’t want him?All three management guys have said that when you have the first pick overall, you need to pick the most talented player available.

    Yes, but the Head Scout is on record stating that Yakupov isn’t a clear #1, that there are 2-3 other players in consideration. This conflicts with what Redline and other reports have been saying since about Xmas and the WJCs–that Yak is head and shoulders above his class.

    So who is the BPA? Are you cool with Stu saying Reinhart and then drafting him #1, if that’s who he truly believes will be the most useful player for winning games over his career?

    Now of course this could all be gamesmanship, fog of war, misdirection BS. They could be laughing their ass off at the blogosphere right now.

    We get Bobby’s new list tomorrow and that should provide some insight into the state of affairs. Maybe it comes in at 7 out of 10.

  109. Woodguy says:

    OilClog: How’s that different then most years?

    The scouts do pretty good job on forwards. Top 4 or 5 taken often end up being in the top 3 or 4 from their draft years.

    The best Dman have gone early lately as well, but sometimes its 3 years + after being drafted that some Dmen start to be noticed, so that’s tougher to say.

    I guess its just that all the lists I have seen are very different after Yak.

    Most years the lists will vary a bit from guy to guy, but this year guys are going up and down 10+ slots from list to list. Can’t remember seeing that.

  110. Woodguy says:

    Captain Obvious: I like that way of putting it.If we suppose the Oilers are going to do something stupid, then what is the least stupid thing they could do.

    In that case trading for Larsson and the #29 pick is:

    1)less stupid than drafting Murray at #1
    2) less stupid than drafting Reinhart at #1.
    3) less stupid than trading for Schenn and #5 and then drafting Reinhart.

    Exactly.

  111. Woodguy says:

    Traktor:
    Why would NJ trade Larsson? Get real.

    Same reason Lou would sign Kovy to a contract that goes against everything Lou stands for.

    He has an owner who desperately needs to sell tickets (24th in NHL gate revenue) and has a big debt on the rink to pay down.

    #1 has cache.

  112. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    I didn’t know Samuelsson was the best forward until DSF told me. Crazy.

    Kyle Woodlief has Samuelsson as the 10th best forward in the draft.

  113. Traktor says:

    Woodguy: Same reason Lou would sign Kovy to a contract that goes against everything Lou stands for.

    He has an owner who desperately needs to sell tickets (24th in NHL gate revenue) and has a big debt on the rink to pay down.

    #1 has cache.

    So in other words NJ has no good reason to trade Larsson.

  114. remember reijo says:

    I’d like to see the reaction at all the draft partys and at rexall especially if/when a trade down occurs or anyone other than Yak is drafted at 1. The sound of a couple thousand people scratching their heads and collectively saying wha? will be something else. “Doan,Doan,Doan,Doan!……Steve Kelly?”
    Dont screw this up fellas, this summer is the equivolant to an election year IMO .

  115. Lowetide says:

    I haven’t heard a thing about a team sponsored draft party. Has anyone?

  116. Traktor says:

    Lowetide:
    I haven’t heard a thing about a team sponsored draft party. Has anyone?

    Probably a good idea if they don’t plan on drafting Yakupov.

    I can see it now.. TSN showing a live feed of beer bottles being thrown and a pool cue getting smashed over Ryan Whitney’s head.

  117. Traktor says:

    Maybe NJ really loves Yakupov.. I guess you never know but I don’t see it.

  118. spoiler says:

    Maverick:
    This whole Larsson idea is a little interesting.A player with 65 regular season game experience, the Oilers liked him last year, the Devils need offense when Parise leaves and Kovalchuk becoming Yakupov’s mentor. Interesting.With the uncertainty of the Devil’s draft picks and the league in coming years this might be their last chance to get a sure fire offensive player.

    I liked Larsson last year, much more so than I like Ryan Murray this year, its a compelling idea.

    Here is a part of an article from Robin Brownlee last year before the draft, talking to Stu MacGregor.

    MACGREGOR’S TAKE

    Scouting Report: “A great two-way defenseman with good offensive puck-moving ability. He’s strong and he competes hard on the boards in and around the net.”

    Projection: “A one or a two. Probably a two.”

    Best Case Scenario: “His most potential? Possibly a one.”

    Concerns: “He’s a good skater but he’s not a great skater. His offence is only OK at this point.”

    The whole article: http://oilersnation.com/2011/5/7/fthm-part-vi-adam-larsson

    Odds of it happening, pretty slim but still interesting.

    Given this, I don’t see how Reinhart can be in the conversation.

    Murray is a much better skater than Larsson and brings at least as much O. Maybe more if we consider team effect. He lacks Larsson’s size and physical power, but he certainly isn’t thought of as weak. Larsson might be better in the long run, but what Murray can do as young as he is, is pretty impressive IMO.

    He’s going to help a team win hockey games, but not with the same sizzle as Yakupov.

  119. Lowetide says:

    Well now this is curious. The ON/Pint party http://oilersnation.com/2012/6/5/smyth-bad-tambo-draft-party

    and nothing else. The 2010 party was announced June 10 http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=531210

    2011 draft party announced June 9 http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=565425

    Can’t find a thing for this year. Which doesn’t mean much. When I was 20, I could find a party anytime, any day. :-)

  120. rickithebear says:

    Traktor: Are you using the same stats that said RNH is Steve Kelly.

    Tracktor: i have defended you! but are you really this dumb a fuck! I thought it was an act.
    Do the work!

    the kid had 22even points in 28 Games that is .79EVPPG.
    a Feb 94 birth expect .62% to translate to nhl by age 22.
    .79 X.62 =.49PEVPPG x 82 games = 40PTS.
    Imagine if they gave him first pp time then the kid would likely translate to a 60 Point player.
    About 5th for point ceiling in forwards.

    Heck a 6’2″ 200lb high suspension winger who projects to be in the top 25 for EVP nhl as a RW.

    PS: RNH was spoon fed upper third comp with 60%+ zone start. and performed at 80% of the league average for that role. His RW was best in the league.

    Sean couturier played in the toughest situation possible for zone start against the best and just destroyed the play. Plus he was a top 10 PK forward. He was the best defensive forward in the game last year. My choice for Selke.

    Less trite po-dunk! more Fact!

  121. Captain Obvious says:

    Traktor,

    You can’t seriously believe that Larsson is a better hockey player than Yakupov. If Yakupov was in the draft last year he would have projected as the best player in the draft.

  122. oilersfan says:

    Lowetide, I am pretty sure the Oilers are having a team sponsored party somewhere that they will make money on. Taylor Hall was on Stauffer’s show on Friday and mentioned he is not going to Pittsburgh because he will be at that party. Also mentioned by Tencer and Stauffer a few times. Not sure where or how to get tickets but I am 90% sure about this.

    As with all of you, I am all for taking Yakupov, end of story.

    I love OEL, but I may be the only one here who sees the idea of an OEL for Yakupov trade as maybe a tie for the Oilers, more likely a win for Phoenix. If I am the OIlers I consider it. If I am Phoenix, I initiate the idea.

    Reason? I love Yakupov more. I bet many of you read the article by Jon Willis earlier this week about the pace Yakupov was on before his knee injury.

    Stauffer had everybody worried about what Gare Joyce was going to say on Tencer’s show as if he was somehow going to say the Oilers shouldn’t take Yakupov. Listen to the interview. Joyce is worried about the Russian factor, but he says clearly he thinks Yak will be a better player than Taylor Hall. He will score more, be more physical, and in 5 years be either the first or second NHL all star. That is some serious praise.

    He says he likes Hall, and that Hall will be a good enough player to be first line winger on a team good enough to win the Stanley Cup, but that Yakupov will be an NHL all star for the next 10 years once he gets used to the league in a few years.

    Do you folks not think you could get OEL for Taylor Hall? I think you could have a good conversation about it and Phoenix would have to consider it given their abundance of Dmen and shortage of elite scorers. Hall will be a 40 goal scorer several times in his career. Yakupov I bet is the only one of the Oilers young stars who scores 50 a couple of times.

    Look at his 16 year old season and his pace this year before his injury, without one of the best centers in the OHL.

    He will be an elite goal scoring superstar just shy of Stamkos.

    I realize OEL is an elite Dmen, but Yak is highly likely going to be an elite goal scorer.

    Both are pretty damn important, and if you think there is no way Phoenix would trade OEL for Yak, or that St. Louis would not trade Pietrangelo for Yak, well, maybe you are right, but I am very confident that history will show those two teams would be smart to give those trades a long look.

    As an Oilers fan, I would prefer Yak to either of those two, fully cognizant of how good they are.

    Why? To me Yak is the Jari Kurri of this edition of the Oilers.

    I know how good Ray Bourque, Rod Langway and Chris Chelios were. I would not have traded any of them straight up for Jari Kurri. Would you have?

    The Oilers won 2 stanleys without Coffey, with a bunch of second pairing dmen. In 1988 that was their best, most dominant team, with no elite dman.

    It has been done many times by many teams, you don’t need a franchise guy to win, just a few good ones.

  123. justDOit says:

    Traktor,

    They might want a dynamic winger to replace Parise, if he signs elsewhere. They say that Minnie is going to pursue him very aggressively.

  124. Woodguy says:

    Traktor: So in other words NJ has no good reason to trade Larsson.

    And owners never interfere with the workings of their team.

  125. Woodguy says:

    Traktor:
    Maybe NJ really loves Yakupov.. I guess you never know but I don’t see it.

    You know we are just spitballing here right? Making shit up as it goes along.

    Mind you, if Parise leaves the only guys under 30 in the top 6 are Kovy, Henrique and Zajac and I think Zajac is UFA after next year.

    May have missed someone.

    w

  126. spoiler says:

    Lowetide:
    spOILer: That’s the problem right there. How do you get defensemen? Draft them. Where don’t you draft them? #1 overall. Maybe they should trade #1 for #11 and #16 lol? Nuttier than a fruitcake, this draft.

    Been thinking about this trade. Since we’re spitballing. Let’s say Washington really wants Yak or Galchenyuk. It’s starting to sound like they will turn out Semin, so it’s possible.

    Would you be willing to do this deal if it was expanded and Green was included?

    It might even be possible to deal back into the 5-8 range from the 11 hole. Take Reinhart and Girgensons/Samuelsson/Gaunce/Hertl. Is it worth losing Yakupov to gain Green, Reinhart, and a power forward?

    Would something like Whitney, Marincin, Belanger, 1 and 62 get it done?

  127. spoiler says:

    oilersfan:
    Lowetide, I am pretty sure the Oilers are having a team sponsored party somewhere that they will make money on. Taylor Hall was on Stauffer’s show on Friday and mentioned he is not going to Pittsburgh because he will be at that party.Also mentioned by Tencer and Stauffer a few times. Not sure where or how to get tickets but I am 90% sure about this.

    As with all of you, I am all for taking Yakupov, end of story.

    I love OEL, but I may be the only one here who sees the idea of an OEL for Yakupov trade as maybe a tie for the Oilers, more likely a win for Phoenix. If I am the OIlers I consider it. If I am Phoenix, I initiate the idea.

    Reason? I love Yakupov more. I bet many of you read the article by Jon Willis earlier this week about the pace Yakupov was on before his knee injury.

    Stauffer had everybody worried about what Gare Joyce was going to say on Tencer’s show as if he was somehow going to say the Oilers shouldn’t take Yakupov. Listen to the interview. Joyce is worried about the Russian factor, but he says clearly he thinks Yak will be a better player than Taylor Hall. He will score more, be more physical, and in 5 years be either the first or second NHL all star. That is some serious praise.

    He says he likes Hall, and that Hall will be a good enough player to be first line winger ona team good enough to win the Stanley Cup, but that Yakupov will be an NHL all star for the next 10 years once he gets used to the league in a few years.

    Do you folks not think you could get OEL for Taylor Hall? I think you could have a good conversation about it and Phoenix would have to consider it given their abundance of Dmen and shortage of elite scorers. Hall will be a 40 goal scorer several times in his career. Yakupov I bet is the only one of the Oilers young stars who scores 50 a couple of times.

    Look at his 16 year old season and his pace this year before his injury, without one of the best centers in the OHL.

    He will be an elite goal scoring superstar just shy of Stamkos.

    I realize OEL is an elite Dmen, but Yak is highly likely going to be an elite goal scorer.

    Both are pretty damn important, and if you think there is no way Phoenix would trade OEL for Yak, or that St. Louis would not trade Pietrangelo for Yak, well, maybe you are right, but I am very confident that history will show those two teams would be smart to give those trades a long look.

    As an Oilers fan, I would prefer Yak to either of those two, fully cognizant of how good they are.

    Why? To me Yak is the Jari Kurri of this edition of the Oilers.

    I know how good Ray Bourque, Rod Langway and Chris Chelios were. I would not have traded any of them straight up for Jari Kurri. Would you have?

    The Oilers won 2 stanleys without Coffey, with a bunch of second pairing dmen. In 1988 that was their best, most dominant team, with no elite dman.

    It has been done many times by many teams, you don’t need a franchise guy to win, just a few good ones.

    Stu that Magnificent Bastard doesn’t seem to agree.

  128. spoiler says:

    oilersfan,

    And they’ve said they want to improve the defence.

    I agree though Yakupov is a lot to give away.

  129. jb says:

    oilersfan:

    I am all for taking Yakupov, end of story.

    Oh yea… well my ignorance, desire to be different, and ability to soak up any BS that gets thrown my way has lead me to conclude that,
    Clearly the Oilers have holes on D, meaning CLEARLY they plan to draft a defenseman.. which MUST be Ryan Murray because Lowe likes Murray.. I don’t care that Steve Tambellini told us we won’t be filling immediate roster holes through this draft.. I’ll think what I want! In fact I’m going to headline this next article Murray #1? and see how many insecure lemmings I can get to flipflop

    /end sarcasm

    p.s The FACT Taylor Hall was going to be drafted over Seguin was posted numerous times on this blog. Why couldn’t the masses at ON accept this? Ignorance, or an attempt to draw traffic? I can’t decide. They sure as hell didn’t have any sources, meaning they still don’t have any sources.
    It has to be ignorance… or denial.. I mean random internet posters couldn’t be more connected than a published journalist right right?

    Here you get good discussion with people dropping bits of info that have no interest in being revealed… There you have attention seeking assholes with nothing more than money as their motivation for spewing garbage.

    Lowetide ftw!

    p.s.s I’m not referring to ALL of the MSM, just the large portion that are quite obviously full of shit.

  130. franksterra says:

    just curious- in all the chat about various top picks possibly moving around, the isles are never mentioned. Mtl, CBJ, Tor, even the ducks, minny and the Canes are all generating chat. Has Snow made any sort of statement or tell on their plans- or at least what they’re considering?

  131. godot10 says:

    Alex Semin sure has had a lot of trade value the last three seasons! -).

    Then look at what Jack Johnson got in trade.

    Defensemen hold trade value far better than forwards.

  132. Woodguy says:

    franksterra:
    just curious- in all the chat about various top picks possibly moving around, the isles are never mentioned.Mtl, CBJ, Tor, even the ducks, minny and the Canes are all generating chat.Has Snow made any sort of statement or tell on their plans- or at least what they’re considering?

    I think their needs are:

    1) Rink
    2) Owner
    3) Dman

    NYI are way thinner than the Oilers in terms of Dman depth/prospects and the 4 spot will probably be a good spot to grab one (I think Yak, Fors, Grig are the first 3 off the board)

  133. Woodguy says:

    godot10:
    Alex Semin sure has had a lot of trade value the last three seasons! -).

    Then look at what Jack Johnson got in trade.

    Defensemen hold trade value far better than forwards.

    I think you need to have a more complete list of trades other than Carter who wanted out and everyone knew it, and a guy who never got traded.

  134. franksterra says:

    Woodguy,

    Hmmm, just my opinion (“Man”, in the parlance of our times), but I’m thinking Yak, Murray, Galch are the first 3 to go. Maybe I’m overvaluing Murray, and frankly Forsberg playing in Sweden’s tier 2 would out me off him as a top 5 pick.

  135. Woodguy says:

    franksterra:
    Woodguy,

    Hmmm, just my opinion (“Man”, in the parlance of our times), but I’m thinking Yak, Murray, Galch are the first 3 to go.Maybe I’m overvaluing Murray, and frankly Forsberg playing in Sweden’s tier 2 would out me off him as a top 5 pick.

    I base the Forsburg thing on Aaron Portzline saying that CBJ loves him.

  136. godot10 says:

    Woodguy: I think you need to have a more complete list of trades other than Carter who wanted out and everyone knew it, and a guy who never got traded.

    Rick Nash isn’t good enough to pry one of the top three D out of the Rangers.

  137. Woodguy says:

    godot10: Rick Nash isn’t good enough to pry one of the top three D out of the Rangers.

    Wayne Gretzky was never traded for a Dman.

    Has about the same relevance.

  138. copperblueandwhite says:

    Woodguy,

    That’s the only trade to make Woodguy….trading down to pick a WHL D-man makes no sense…this is all just window dressing by the Oiler brass, imo…a good way to see how much play there is in the trade market by dangling Yakupov as bait…it’ll be Yak and by this time next week we can get on to who’s the right fit from free agency!

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