FIVE FOR THE OILERS

Stu “Magnifient Bastard” MacGregor told us today that it’s down to 5: Nail, Murray, Grigorenko, Forsberg and Reinhart. What does that tell us?

 

Nail Yakupov left his home country at a young age seeking fame and fortune. He found fame in Sarnia and 18 days from this one he may well find his fortune in our town. I don’t think there’s much left to say about that, so let’s talk about the other kids on the list.

I was interested to see Grigorenko on the list, as a big center with slick skills is catnip to NHL teams. I wrote a few days ago he would go in the top 3, still think so. Didn’t think he’d be considered this strong for #1. Forsberg is less known and I wonder about his offense based on this season’s numbers, but the Oilers clearly like him enough to include him in the conversation. Ryan Murray–in my opinion–would have been an Oiler if Edmonton had lost out on the lottery, but winning changed it all and the Oilers will have to add blue in another way.

Reinhart is a player we’ve heard about all along and there should be no surprise that the Oilers are considering him as an option. At this point I think Reinhart is probably the guy if the club trades down.There’s also a chance Edmonton takes Yakupov #1 and then makes an effort to trade up and get Reinhart should he slide. One way might be trading with Carolina for the 8th overall pick. Jim Rutherford has apparently muttered something about dealing the pick for immediate help and the Oilers might decide to add Yakupov and subtract an NHL forward in an effort to acquire Reinhart.

A lot has to happen, and Reinhart might be off the board earlier (Bob McKenzie has suggested Reinhart is in the top 5 on some lists). However, it’s possible things could break that way.

This group of 5 is the cluster MBS has been talking about for some time. I would be surprised if they select Reinhart or Forsberg #1 overall, but not surprised if they choose Yakupov, Murray or Grigorenko #1 overall.

Edmonton holds the most important card. I expect they’ll take Yakupov, but this thing isn’t over yet.

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59 Responses to "FIVE FOR THE OILERS"

  1. D says:

    LT,

    I don’t think the owner would risk getting burned by letting his management staff be the smartest men in the room. The safe bet is the logical choice until this organization has a better track record. Nail should hopefully be an Oiler very soon.

  2. Rondo says:

    I guess that would mean Gagner or Hemsky in a trade with Carolina.

  3. Rondo says:

    As for # 1 pick I would trade for OEL.

  4. Lowetide says:

    D: Agreed, Yakupov is the obvious choice and the smart bet.

  5. PunjabiOil says:

    Drafting 1st overall is very difficult, let alone 3 times in a row. The Edmonton Oilers received a gift from the hockey gods this year. To go against the current would be asinine – there is a reason Yakupov is the consensus 1st overall on every publication.

    Trading that 1st overall has the potential of long-term adverse consequences.

    It’s quite sad, actually.

  6. Rondo says:

    If Oilers do take Yakupov , they really should take a shot at getting Nikolai Kulemin who would be an excellent mentor for Nail as well as being an excellent 2 way forward.

  7. spoiler says:

    LT said…

    Stu “Magnifient Bastard” MacGregor told us today that it’s down to 5: Nail, Murray, Grigorenko, Forsberg and Reinhart.

    Uh huh.

    Umm, where?

  8. Lowetide says:

    I got it from ON, I’d have to look but think it was Gregor. I don’t know where he got it.

  9. Lowetide says:

    Yeah, Jason has it here via Oilers Now
    http://oilersnation.com/2012/6/4/weekend-wrap-8

  10. TheOtherJohn says:

    Gagner and Our 2nd for Carolina #1…… Morgan Reilly

  11. spoiler says:

    Thanks yet again Ribs.

    It occured to me ON was involved so booted over there and sure enough Gregor referenced Oilers Now.

    So, basically the best player at each position and a couple of throw-ins.

    I’m a little disappointed Rielly doesn’t beat out Reinhart as I think he’s far more talented, certainly a better skater. Maybe size and/or future injuries are a concern for the Scouts.

  12. Woodguy says:

    D:
    LT,

    I don’t think the owner would risk getting burned by letting his management staff be the smartest men in the room.The safe bet is the logical choice until this organization has a better track record.Nail should hopefully be an Oiler very soon.

    I really don’t think the owner is paying that close of attention.

  13. Traktor says:

    Anyone watching the baseball draft?

  14. Lowetide says:

    Me! Bud Selig looks like Keith Richards grandpa!

  15. Traktor says:

    Best comp I’ve heard so far.

  16. gcw_rocks says:

    Jon Cooper has the Admirals up 2-0 in the AHL finals. Cooper for the Oilers Head Coach! Come on people, he is the dude!

  17. DSF says:

    Matt Greene is a very good defenseman.

    Just a beast on the Devils 5 on 3.

  18. Rebilled says:

    MacT seen in Edmonton today by a buddy. Just saying.

  19. Lowetide says:

    Sign. the. man.

  20. Cactus says:

    Woodguy: I really don’t think the owner is paying that close of attention.

    He seems interested enough to meet with Yakupov today. No point doing that if you have absolutely no input in the process. I think he’s more plugged in than we give him credit for, he just has no interest in the spotlight.

  21. Cactus says:

    Also, this was from tsn’s coverage of Yak’s visit:

    “One reporter asked Yakupov what kind of questions the Oilers asked him.

    “Do you have a girlfriend? That was a question,” Yakupov said.

    Asked another reporter: “About the girlfriend. What did you say?”

    “I have two,” Yakupov said with a laugh.”

    I’m sold. Draft him.

  22. DSF says:

    Lowetide:
    Sign. the. man.

    That was your mantra when Horcoff was approaching free agency.

    I expect MacT would work out just about as well.

  23. Lowetide says:

    MacT’s weakness was the PP. With these kids? Problem solved.

  24. Oilogosphere.com says:

    Nothing really magnificent about a guy who is still scratching his head over 5 players when were just mere weeks from the draft. I suppose it’s due diligence to cover their basis on each player. Still, 5 players…come on.

  25. BlacqueJacque says:

    If the Oilers passed on Couturier (also had mono last year, with fewer questions about work ethic and determination, and scored more points), they’d be daft to go for Grigo. Oilers are blowing smoke.

  26. speeds says:

    I think it’s pretty interesting that, in an organization that doesn’t let much information surface, and seemingly allows very little info to slip, the Oilers pretty much broadcast their top 5, or alleged top 5 if you think it’s gamesmenship. What’s to be gained, why would you do that?

    Is it misdirection? Was Stu kind of going on his own in volunteering that info, or was it a conscious choice to put it out there? Did they think the info would come out anyways, so why not get ahead of it? That doesn’t really explain Forsberg or Reinhart though, from the sounds of it they aren’t visiting so it’s not like that info necessarily would have come out anyways.

  27. Oilogosphere.com says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Drafting 1st overall is very difficult, let alone 3 times in a row. The Edmonton Oilers received a gift from the hockey gods this year.To go against the current would be asinine – there is a reason Yakupov is the consensus 1st overall on every publication.

    Trading that 1st overall has the potential of long-term adverse consequences.

    It’s quite sad, actually.

    I would argue drafting first overall is much easier than drafting below that number. You’ve got literally months to decide where as not picking in the top three your more on the spot with a decision.

  28. PunjabiOil says:

    I would argue drafting first overall is much easier than drafting below that number. You’ve got literally months to decide where as not picking in the top three your more on the spot with a decision.

    I meant percentage wise. The Oilers, based upon their finish, had a 4% chance of drafting 1st every time.

  29. godot10 says:

    The Oilers announced their 5 because they wanted other teams to know how far they are willing to move down in trade (where a stud young D is not offered i.e an OEL-type). i.e. to try create a market for the #1 amongst the 2 through 5 teams.

    And they need Toronto IN to bid up value of the #1 so the list had to be 5 players long.

    The Oilers are saying. Offer something decent, and perhaps we may be happy with Grigorenko over Yakupov, or Reinhart over Murray.

  30. D says:

    Woodguy: I really don’t think the owner is paying that close of attention.

    If he is running the Oilers like any other business, he’ll be paying close attention until it’s built to his expectations. Then he’ll step back.

  31. Lowetide says:

    I think Godot10 makes a great point. They may have some intel suggesting someone in the top 5 wants to move up.

  32. speeds says:

    godot10:
    The Oilers announced their 5 because they wanted other teams to know how far they are willing to move down in trade (where a stud young D is not offered i.e an OEL-type). i.e. to try create a market for the #1 amongst the 2 through 5 teams.

    And they need Toronto IN to bid up value of the #1 so the list had to be 5 players long.

    The Oilers are saying.Offer something decent, and perhaps we may be happy with Grigorenko over Yakupov, or Reinhart over Murray.

    I think that’s kind of my take as well, EDM is more willing to move down this year than the last two. It’s kind of strange though, in that if someone’s moving up they are likely doing it for Yakupov, so what’s the incentive to release the names of the other players you’re interested in? I guess depending on which spot you end up in, your list of 5 might make it tougher for the teams in that range to figure out who you want, so they won’t necessarily know if they need to trade up to get in front of EDM to still get their choice?

  33. Oilogosphere.com says:

    PunjabiOil,

    lol. My bad.

    Now I have to argue this as well as drafting first overall 3 years in a row is easy (in regards to the lottery, Tambellini didn’t have to do anything for it to happen. Dumb luck.). It’s easy to be a crapty hockey team isn’t it? lol

    Unless it’s hard to be this terrible – but that would give the notion they are trying to suck. Either way trying or not trying to suck to become good is not a very respectable way of building a team.

    Although I will admit that I wouldn’t trade Hall, RNH or Yakupov for the world so hopefully it can all turn around next season.

  34. speeds says:

    Assuming that’s their actual top 5. Is it completely unimaginable that, if EDM trades down to 3 or 4 or 5, they trade down again to 6/7/8 and pick someone like Galchenyuk or Rielly and then say something like ” We had more than 5 guys in our top talent tier, but didn’t really want that info out there.”

  35. whale says:

    Off current topic but, If NJ takes their penalty and surrenders their 1st pick, does that mean the 30th pick is considered a second round pick? Kind of unfair to player.

  36. speeds says:

    The way they are handling the info this year seems different from the last couple years, seems pretty unusual for a team to be so candid about names with the media. I don’t know if that means they are necessarily lying, maybe they think they can reveal the actual names and no one would believe they’d actually do that?

  37. Rondo says:

    What is Reinhart doing in the top 5 ? No one has him ranked there.

    If this was a multiple choice test among experts Who does not belong easy answer Reinhart.

    Why is he there?

  38. slopitch says:

    Yes MacT is in town. I came real close to riding into him on my bike Friday as I apologized. Good guy that MacT, didnt seem pissed at all.

    Draft Yakapov. Fix the D other ways.

  39. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    What isReinhart doing in the top 5 ?No one has him ranked there.

    If this was a multiple choice testamong experts Who does not belongeasy answer Reinhart.

    Why is he there?

    Bob McKenzie mentioned Friday night that Reinhart is in the top 5 for several scouts he’s talked to and that Reinhart would probably rank higher on his draft list than Feb.

  40. spoiler says:

    Both MacGregor and Tambellini have said there were to be 5 or 6 tours. Matheson reported 2 tours were done prior to Yakupov’s. Grigorenko and Murray have theirs later this week according to Terry Jones. One of the first two was likely Reinhart, since he plays here. But the other could not have been Forsberg, could it? There wasn’t enough time and we would have heard.

    Perhaps it was Rielly. Misdirection? I hope so. He’s the closest thing to Paul Coffey in the draft.

  41. bookje says:

    Woodguy: I really don’t think the owner is paying that close of attention.

    Seems like a clueless kind of thing to say.

  42. gogliano says:

    Speeds comment reminded me of this in thinking about possible returns: in 2008, NYI trade down 5th to 7th for 60th overall in 2008 and either ’09 third rounder or the 68 pick overall from Toronto. NYI then flip 7 for 9 and get the 40th overall from Nashville.

    So straightforward version: move down 4 spots from 5 to 9 for the 40, 60, and 68.

    I’d think the move down from #1 to 5 should get you more than the move down from #5 to #9, yes? But this still reeks of quality for quantity when we should be going the other direction.

    In any event, if that is the Oilers’ real top 5, I wouldn’t be shocked to see one of them (either Reinhardt or Forsberg) still there at #8. Would you trade the #1 for the #5 and #8 in this draft (Toronto sending a live body to Carolina for #8 to Edmonton)? Could probably pick up a center and a dman in those slots and Burke gets to steal the show.

  43. Ribs says:

    It seems like Tambellini is asked every year if anyone had phoned him for the pick and he always has the same smug answer – “I’m listening. Make an offer.” I wonder if he’s shooting himself in the foot a bit by not giving other teams anything to work with. What do you want? A star forward? #1 goalie? Top two defenseman? Young established forwards and picks? What kind of picks? etc.

    It seems to me that he should be actively shopping the pick to explore all options. He doesn’t have to say yes to anything, but at least he’d be getting something better than “soft” calls for the pick.

    I dunno, I just hate hearing that there was no serious offers every year when the #1 pick is one of the most valuable assets you can own in this league.

    Maybe Tambellini just doesn’t share the real offers. Anything’s possible.

  44. Lowetide says:

    The cluster up front would be outstanding with Yakupov. I mean it isn’t Gretzky-Kurri and Messier-Anderson but those are four terrific young players all starting their careers together.

    Is there a Charlie Huddy out there? Can Marincin arrive quickly? Maybe Justin Schultz signs here.

  45. spoiler says:

    Jones also has a couple of very good articles on Krueger. He sounds like a pretty neat individual. I would be real interested in giving him a shot at HC, and see if we can get Cooper for Assistant as backup.

    I think Krueger has a pretty good idea too of the state of Europe. Switzerland is starting to rip with inflation right now while its Central Bank strains to hold its peg against a plummeting Euro. This was a guy who was giving talks at Davos, he’s wired in. I can understand why he’d be so motivated to coach in the NHL. And I think he’d be a gooder. His European resumé is stellar.

    Maybe the reason they dumped Renney and we’ve seen no activity on the coaching front, is because Lowe & Tambo are enthralled with Krueger?

  46. steveb12344 says:

    I would think that this list of 5 would be considered to be more thier top 5 target players for thier org. Not neccessarily thier top 5 overall ranks.

    While i am sure that deep down they are all almost positive they will keep the pick and draft The Nail. I think they are just trying to be as prepared as possible for any other scenario that might arise where they move up or down and end up in position to take one of thier other target players.

    One thing we know about Tambo MBS and co. is that they will do thier due dilligence, and be as informed as possible.

    Now we just have to hope they make the right moves!…………”In Stu We Trust” ……………..

  47. Ribs says:

    Kypreos knocks off another coaching name (not that I think anyone thought he was coming here)….

    With off day of #SNplayoffs I’m told Michel Therrien will be announced as head coach of #Canadiens as early tomorrow afternoon.

  48. Ribs says:

    spoiler: Maybe the reason they dumped Renney and we’ve seen no activity on the coaching front, is because Lowe & Tambo are enthralled with Krueger?

    It seems that was what happened with Quinn/Renney….

  49. Doug McLachlan says:

    At the end of the day, the Oilers will take Yakupov and probably be pleased that they did. Still, I like the thinking of Godot10 as to why one floats 5 names.

    I don’t think Montreal or the Islanders will be trading picks but Toronto and Columbus might. There is this Rick Nash guy out there and while the Oil aren’t part of that discussion, we might have an asset or two that would be valuable to such a trade. Assuming that part of the Blue Jackets’ price for Nash is Toronto’s pick, what interest would the Oilers have in #2 and #5?

    Do the Oilers have enough intel on Columbus (ie that they really want Murray and are very scared of Yakupov) to gamble that their first this year and next (or some other asset) get Tambo the #2 and #5 where they can take both Yakupov and Reinhart (or O’Riley). Is the whole, “we are really, really interested in Murray” story line from Matheson and others all part of a disinformation scheme to get Columbus to offer us something so we take Yakupov?

    Alternatively does Columbus, knowing that they are going to be dealing Nash, really want the unquestioned #1 in Yakupov in spite of his passport? Again, if the above Jackets-Leaf deal gives Columbus picks #2 and #5 does that scenario make sense for Columbus to swap both to the Oil for #1 and something?

    I think that Nail is the guy, hands down. However I could be comforted were we to secure two picks in the top five instead (say Griegorenko and Reinhart).

  50. gd says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    I actually.think if Cbus gets TOs pick for Nash that they go all in on Yak/Gal and give the Oil the 5th pick and Johansson for the 1st and the Oil draft the best available D at 5.

  51. jb says:

    I think it tells us they’ve simply decided on drafting one of those guys, though not necessarily with the 1st overall. Arguably only one of those guys is even worth taking 1st overall.. If you drop down into Reinhart or Murray range though, you should be getting a pretty significant piece in return.

    I’d guess that nothing gets done, and everyone breathes a sigh of relief once they realize the lottery just netted us NAIL YAKUPOV, once a dream.

  52. Wes Mantooth-11 says:

    I read the article From THN that Rutherford would move # 8 for a top 6 forward. I get goose bumps thinking about this, that’s extremely do-able for the Oilers.

    On to the top 5, I think this might be a little smoke and mirrors by Stu there.

    After all, how the hell does Dumba not even get a little consideration after the scouting combines?

    Top ten in almost every category in the combine, offensive player who hits like a freight train, captained the U-18′s is from Alberta and played with the best damn center in the world! Not to mention is younger.

    Yakupov and Dumba!

  53. Captain Obvious says:

    Ribs:
    http://garfieldminusgarfield.net/post/24125542914/g-g-the-book

    Thank you very much for that link. I have no words for how brilliant that website is.

  54. russ99 says:

    Grigorenko was my pick had we not won the lottery stayed at #3. Outstanding player with a season cut short by mono.

    If he falls to #8 and the Oilers make the Carolina deal, I could see the Oilers picking him there instead of a 3-year project defenseman.

    I like Grigorenko better than Galchenyuk, since he fits the current group better, and I see Galchenyuk ending up at LW in the NHL.

  55. Doug McLachlan says:

    Wes Mantooth-11,

    I get the Dumba-love but, and perhaps this is because I often see him linked to the Leafs, I have trouble not thinking of him as a modern-day Wendel Clark. Super tough, offensively gifted, but undersized d-man converted into a winger.

  56. DeadmanWaking says:

    there is a reason Yakupov is the consensus 1st overall on every publication

    And that reason is … these ratings lists mostly discount or ignore KHL defection risk. Yak might not presently see the KHL as a desirable outcome for his career, but that could change in a Mike Comrie minute. The herd instinct is no replacement for sober judgement. Sober judgement does not include trying to prove something to the rival standing next to you (those scouts for the other teams lobbing put-downs over your most humiliating draft-pick moments).

    The Feynman principle: You must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool. Another formulation plucked from a WSJ article: Remember that the smarter you are, the more easily you can fool yourself.

    This from the patron saint of eschewing the herd instinct.

    Is Yak the right survivor inside the Katz/Lowe/Tambelli management circus? Will his KHL ejector seat tone down these internal management hijinks or will it revisit the Todd Stottlemyre YEG kiss and cry?

  57. DSF says:

    Lowetide:
    MacT’s weakness was the PP. With these kids? Problem solved.

    You may be under rating other teams abilities to adapt to the Oilers PP.

    Great personnel isn’t enough.

    Look at what happened to Vancouver and LA despite having tremendous personnel.

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