FREE AGENTS AND THE OILERS 12-13

When it comes to talking about the Edmonton Oilers and free agency, we immediately have a problem. The club already has a full roster under contract (or will have when the rfa’s are qualified).

So, we’re just going to ignore it and assume Steve Tambellini can find a home for Ben Eager and others. The following players will probably be of some interest to the management group:

  1. D Justin Schultz: Number one on the list because of his age and that he’s a plug and play. The Oilers have a shot at him and that’s news. If they do sign him, we shouldn’t expect him to come in and be Tom Gilbert. However, this would add a very nice piece to the young D cluster that includes Petry, Klefbom, Marincin, Gernat, Musil and Simpson.
  2. D Ryan Suter: Take a shot. Why not? They won’t get him but dream big.
  3. D Matt Carle: I suspect he’ll get signed before going UFA, but this is a guy the Oilers could lock in for a few years and have him stick around for the good days. It’s probably a stretch to suggest Edmonton would be on his list but if the three wise men are going to make an impact this would be a good place to start.
  4. L Ryan Smyth: Oilers need to add two veteran forwards in my opinion. Smyth could serve as a mentor to the kids (Lander, Paajarvi, Hartikainen) and slide up to the skill lines as required. I think a 1-year deal is best, and would rather pay bigger dollars for the single than smaller for the double. This is an important player to sign.
  5. D Jason Garrison: He had a a career season but has been consistent over two full seasons now and is young enough to be a part of this young Oiler team for several years before decline.
  6. F Daniel Winnik: I like this player for that 3line role and he’d be my choice as that mentor winger for the kids and he can play either wing too. I also think he could help the kids with trying to make the grade with a losing organization, as that’s how he came into the league.
  7. C Paul Gaustad: He’s familialr with crappy zone starts and after all this time I think the Oilers badly need to give Horcoff a blow (stop it) once in awhile. Gaustad gives the team some size and gives the roto league coaches on the team a chance to settle the hell down on Lander and give him time.
  8. D Michal Roszsival: Can play 20+ minutes a night and does play quite a bit on the PK. Should Edmonton add him Roszival could serve as a legit top 4. He is not good Whitney insurance, as he’s a defensive defender and is part of the Smid-Schultz the elder family.
  9. R Jordin Tootoo: I think the Oilers will take a run at him, as they’ve done in the past with similar players. He would replace Eager and I do think Edmonton will get him.

 

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179 Responses to "FREE AGENTS AND THE OILERS 12-13"

  1. jonrmcleod says:

    So if the Oilers add 2 defencemen, how do they make room? I’m assuming that Barker will not be back. What about Peckham? I guess the Oilers are stuck with Sutton for another year. Is Potter on a 2-way contract?

  2. Woodguy says:

    Rozsival would be a good addition if they fail to get others who would fill that role better.

    If they fail to get J. Shultz, then they should go back after Yandle.

    Right now Petry and 1 Left Foot are the only two Oiler D who can pass well.

    They need: 1st pairing shut down guy and 2nd pairing good first pass guy.

    Just don’t get Yandle and put him out against the toughs. Deploy him like Tippett.

    Also,

    I don’t understand v4.0 coming back from the draft still owning the rights to Omark, Belanger, and Eager.

    Can he not even give away players, let alone trade them?

  3. Lowetide says:

    I think the Oilers have to add 2 because of Whitney’s issues. The depth chart might be:

    1. Smid
    2. Petry
    3. Garrison
    4. Schultz the older
    5. Whitney
    6. Schultz the younger
    7. Sutton
    8. Peckham

    And then send down the rest. Potter is a waiver risk/first callup.

  4. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: They devalued Omark to the point where he may have to go back to Europe for a year. Eager imo will have value when the free agents wane and I suspect Belanger is a player MacT would fight to keep.

  5. jonrmcleod says:

    Woodguy,

    But was any other GM able to get rid of unwanted parts over the weekend? You can say it’s the Oilers’ fault, but I don’t think there’s a very big market for Omark.

  6. jonrmcleod says:

    Does anyone know if there’s a site that lists all of the Oilers past free agent signings? I’m doing a post on the best and worst free agent signings by the Oilers. Right now I’m looking through every single transaction.

  7. Lowetide says:

    Steve’s Oilers Website goes back about 15 years.

  8. Semenko and Troy says:

    If Smyth balks at signing a one year deal, how about bringing in Jagr. He seems to be interested in playing with Hemsky. Maybe he’s the spark to rejuvenate Hemsky’s game.

    Throwing a combination of Horcoff-Hemsky-Jagr over the boards, aside from playing tough minutes, would draw some of other teams’ attention away from the kids.

  9. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    I think the Oilers have to add 2 because of Whitney’s issues. The depth chart might be:

    1. Smid
    2. Petry
    3. Garrison
    4. Schultz the older
    5. Whitney
    6. Schultz the younger
    7. Sutton
    8. Peckham

    And then send down the rest. Potter is a waiver risk/first callup.

    Everyone says Garrison is ready to sign in VAN.

    Shultz the Younger is far from a done deal.

    I got a bad feeling about this.

    Everyone with an Oildrop on their paycheque has agreed publicly that they need D.

    Why do I get a bad feeling that they will spend all their efforts on Suter and let others go to other teams for reasonable contracts without being in there and pitching, then end up asking Struddy to come out of retirement?

  10. Woodguy says:

    Aaron Portzline tweet from this morning:

    Told by very good source #Canucks G Roberto Luongo has – to this point — declined to waive no-trade clause to go to #Blackhawks or #Leafs.

    Then follows up it with:

    Only place Luongo is willing to be traded, as of today, is back to the Florida #Panthers.

    Anything that causes pain to TOR and VAN hockey teams makes me happy.

    Don’t crap on my schadenfreude, I’m an Oiler fan and haven’t had much to cheer about for 6 years.

  11. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I like the Gaustad idea. What did he make last year… and how long would you sign him for?

    Jagr is interesting. Would he play in a small market, how much would he want and could he stay healthy? Do we really need to czech vets with health issues?

    If we lose Smyth again… what will the fan base do? I’d love to see him back… but he’s aged now and his talents are far from irreplaceable. But while he’s in the nest already the easiest option is to keep him there.

  12. Traktor says:

    1. Sam Gagner + for Steve Ott

    2. Curtis Hamilton + Belanger + for Dubinsky

    3. Amnesty clause Horc if possible

    RNH
    Ott
    Dubinsky
    Vande Velde

    4. Use Hemsky to acquire a D

    5. Promote MPS and Harty

    6. Make playoffs

  13. uni says:

    Traktor: 2. Curtis Hamilton + Belanger + for Dubinsky

    As much as we’d all love that to happen, I don’t think Sather is senile enough, or Lowe has enough incriminating pictures of Sather to get that done.

  14. Traktor says:

    uni: Dubinsky

    Was hoping NY might sell Low. Dubi only scored 10 goals last year and had 2 assists and no goals in the playoffs. He has a 4.2M cap hit for 3 more years so NY might be open to moving him to free up some cap space for Suter or Parise.

    Sather said yesterday that he plans on been very active in the free agent market.

    I would add though.. I did have a “+” in there.

  15. markasread1199 says:

    This is all well and good, and is a ton of fun but there are small rumblings now that there might not be a season this coming fall. Any news on the CBA?

    I’d like them to get Schultz the younger and sign Smyth. Make a few trades (Eager, Jones, Gagner (I hope not), Hemsky (hope not))

    I would love to see Tootoo in Oiler silks.

  16. russ99 says:

    Smyth’s drop off in fitness and play in the second half combined with his sense of entitlement of a larger contract/playing time than he can realistically live up to makes him a poor fit.

    I’d love to see the Smyth, Horcoff, Hemsky line ride off into the sunset another year, but those days are gone. For even the lowball amount the Oilers are offering Smyth, we can get a much better and younger hockey player.

    Also, I wonder if it was telling that the Oilers didn’t draft their annual goalie. Maybe there’s hope for an upgrade over Khabibulin yet…

  17. Woodguy says:

    If Krueger gets hired, someone needs to make this picture their avatar.

  18. Traktor says:

    russ99:

    I wonder if it was telling that the Oilers didn’t draft their annual goalie. Maybe there’s hope for an upgrade over Khabibulin yet…

    I think its because they suck at drafting goalies. Perhonen had a Hesketh type season last year.

  19. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy:
    If Krueger gets hired, someone needs to make this picture their avatar.

    YES!!!

    That head shot makes him look like a overaged, straight-laced, actor trying out for part in a TV high-school drama as the reckless youth he imagines exists only on the basis of TV and films. He’s the Fonz!

  20. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    russ99,

    I don’t think it makes much sense that the Oilers not drafting a goalie that probably won’t turn out in 4 years says much about their plans for Khabibulin.

    Traktor,

    I’m not sure this group is into “corrective thinking” or that the correction of a misfired goalie pick would be to not pick a goalie.

  21. Woodguy says:

    Traktor: I think its because they suck at drafting goalies. Perhonen had a Hesketh type season last year.

    Bunz was WHL goalie of the year.

    Roy posted .925 in ECHL then .937 in 3 AHL games.

  22. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: YES!!!

    That head shot makes him look like a overaged, straight-laced, actor trying out for part in a TV high-school drama as the reckless youth he imagines exists only on the basis of TV and films. He’s the Fonz!

    If someone could graft that head shot onto a body doing “jazz hands”, they would be doing the Lord’s work.

  23. Traktor says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    russ99,

    Traktor,

    I’m not sure this group is into “corrective thinking” or that the correction of a misfired goalie pick would be to not pick a goalie.

    The thing is you can find really good goalies in Europe and not have to use a draft pick. Drafting goalies is like drafting NFL players out of high school.

  24. Traktor says:

    Woodguy: Bunz was WHL goalie of the year.

    Roy posted.925 in ECHL then .937 in 3 AHL games.

    Bunz looks like their best pick in a long time. Kind of disappointing that he couldn’t make Team Canada though considering the lack of talent at the position.

    Mark Owuya posted 1.94 GAA and .929 sv% in the AHL last year after signing as a free agent. I think Edmonton needs start signing these Euro free agents.

  25. Traktor says:

    Here’s a list of the goalies Edmonton has drafted since 1990:

    Greg Louder
    Mike Power
    Andrew Verner
    Joaquin Gage (23 games)
    Jeremy Jablonski
    Chris Wickenheiser
    Mike Minard (1 game)
    John Hultberg
    Alexander Fomitchev
    Patrick Dovigi
    Mike Morrison (29 games)
    Kristian Antila
    Adam Hauser (1 game)
    Jussi Markkanen (128 games)
    Glenn Fisher
    Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers (62 games)
    Bjorn Bjurling
    Devan Dubnyk (101 games)
    Bryan Pitton
    Olivier Roy
    Tyler Bunz
    Frans Tuohimaa
    Samu Perhonen

    Its almost hard to believe but in 20 years Edmonton hasn’t drafted a starting goalie!

  26. Woodguy says:

    Traktor: Bunz looks like their best pick in a long time. Kind of disappointing that he couldn’t make Team Canada though considering the lack of talent at the position.

    Mark Owuya posted 1.94 GAA and .929 sv% in the AHL last year after signing as a free agent. I think Edmonton needs start signing these Euro free agents.

    I agree that there are some value guys to sign, but they don’t fall off trees.

    Out of the 47 goalies who played more than 20 games in the NHL last year, only 7 were not drafted.

    HIller
    Niemi
    N.Backstrom
    Gustavson
    Roloson
    Sanford
    Bobrovsky

    The first 3 are good. Rolli is ancient and not european. Bob might become a goalie.

    So 3 decent goalies out of 47. You still need to draft.

  27. rickithebear says:

    Driving to work : 1260 said crawford has been interviewed twice. scuz me! threw up a bit there.

  28. Woodguy says:

    Traktor,

    Its almost hard to believe but in 20 years Edmonton hasn’t drafted a starting goalie!

    Apparently its not their strong suit.

    Given that DD was 26th in the NHL in GP among goalies and 25th in SV% among goalies with 20+ games played, he might qualify as a starter now.

    Should after this year if he can get his SV% closer to .920 (was .914 last year)

  29. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear:
    Driving to work : 1260 said crawford has been interviewed twice.scuz me! threw up a bit there.

    He’s the guy they can point to and say “see, we did an exhaustive search when we decided to hire in house”

    I like Krueger, but they are being really secretive on how many people interviewed for the job.

    It was probably never an open competition.

  30. nathan says:

    Woodguy,

    Even when I’m pretty sure they are just playing us, I’m still secretly relieved when they don’t actually go with the dumbest option available.

  31. TheOtherJohn says:

    Dan Tencer ridicules the notion that Katz overrode hockey operations in making the Yak pick. Course at this point in time everyone has to seriously question his access to insider info after his comments for 4 hours on the radio Friday on the Ryan Murray show, er the pre-draft lead in

  32. Traktor says:

    Woodguy: I agree that there are some value guys to sign, but they don’t fall off trees.

    Out of the 47 goalies who played more than 20 games in the NHL last year, only 7 were not drafted.

    HIller
    Niemi
    N.Backstrom
    Gustavson
    Roloson
    Sanford
    Bobrovsky

    The first 3 are good.Rolli is ancient and not european.Bob might become a goalie.

    So 3 decent goalies out of 47.You still need to draft.

    I think that number will increase in the future.

    Especially now that the draft is only 7 rounds

    Thomas, Rinne, Halak, Elliot, Clemmensen, Hedberg, Vokoun, Nabokov, and Khabibulin were all drafted in the 8th and 9th rounds.

    Add those guys and you now have 16 goalies out of 30 teams that were not drafted in the first 7 rounds or not drafted at all.

    I’m not saying don’t draft goalies but Edmonton really sucks at drafting goalies.

  33. Woodguy says:

    Traktor: I think that number will increase in the future.

    Especially now that the draft is only 7 rounds

    Thomas, Rinne, Halak, Elliot, Clemmensen, Hedberg, Vokoun, Nabokov, and Khabibulin were all drafted in the 8th and 9th rounds.

    Add those guys and you now have 16 goalies out of 30 teams that were not drafted in the first 7 rounds or not drafted at all.

    Those are good points.

    The draft moved to 7 rounds in 2005, so its been 7 drafts of 7 rounds, should be settling out.

    College FA goalies are a good source too. TOR signing Scrivens out of Cornell for example.

    He might be their starter next year.

  34. bookje says:

    Woodguy: He’s the guy they can point to and say “see, we did an exhaustive search when we decided to hire in house”

    I like Krueger, but they are being really secretive on how many people interviewed for the job.

    It was probably never an open competition.

    WG – I don’t think there is any reason for a facade from the Oilers point of view. If they had decided on Krueger 2 months ago, they would have just hired him. I think he started as the preferred candidate and after they interviewed everyone else shortlisted, he remained the top candidate (if it is the case that he is actually hired). There is nothing really unusual about that. It’s due diligence to interview others.

    As per being secretive, I am glad that they are demonstrating the ability to keep things from leaking to the press all of the time. I am sure the unsuccessful candidates also appreciate it. Its called professionalism.

    With that said, I am a bit distressed that they interviewed Crawford. If they wanted a washed up coach who has been fired multiple times, Pat Quinn is probably still available.

  35. gcw_rocks says:

    If the plan is to trade Gagner for defensive help, I would push NYR for Dubinsky. His cap hit could make him available if Sather wants to go whale hunting, and Sather would be forced into selling at a low point in his value. Defintely worth a shot.

    .

  36. rickithebear says:

    Man Belanger fell of fthe face of the earth last year.

    the guy was gaustad tough in 07-08; 08-09 lower !st and 38.5% zone start. 1.35 EV P/60
    Next two years 2 nd toughs with 45% zone start 1.92EVP/60
    Last year 4ths with 43% zone start. .62EvP/60 he was 2.9 times below his traditional Shooting %.
    he should be a 11G a season on the 4ths.

    there has got to be a rebound year for him next year. Plus he is not going amywhere.
    Cause you do not send off the 10th best PK center in the league.

  37. Factotum says:

    LT: All the buzz I’ve seen seems to think he’s going to Detroit – if not staying in Washington, but what do you think about Dennis Wideman? A bit surprised he’s not on your list.

  38. Captain Obvious says:

    Apparently the Islanders offered their entire draft to the Blue Jackets for the #2 pick.

    http://www.bluejacketsxtra.com/content/blogs/puck-rakers/2012/06/isles-offered-all-their-picks.html

    This blows my mind if true. The only thing dumber than making this offer for the Islanders is turning it down.

    The spread of talent in NHL GM’s is extraordinary. Every time I hear something like this I wonder why the Oilers aren’t out there fleecing these horrible teams. Then I pause, and take solace for the Tambellini’s conservative nature. If he isn’t making a great deal at least he’s been successful at avoiding the spectacularly bad deals (see Gauthier, Pierre).

  39. Woodguy says:

    As per Mirtle article:

    Here are the draft pick compensation figures for the 2012-13 season:

    $1,110,249 or below – No Compensation

    Over $1,110,249 to $1,682,194 – 3rd round pick

    Over $1,682,194 to $3,364,391 – 2nd round pick

    Over $3,364,391 to $5,046,585 – 1st round pick, 3rd

    Over $5,046,585 to $6,728,781 – 1st round pick, 2nd, 3rd

    Over $6,728,781 To $8,410,976 – Two 1st Round Picks, 2nd, 3rd

    Over $8,410,976 – Four 1st Round Picks

  40. Captain Obvious says:

    Down Goes Brown with a classic tweet:

    “Garth Snow just offered me a bag full of gold and diamonds for a used copy of my book, but Scott Howson says I should turn it down…”

  41. nathan says:

    Captain Obvious,

    So there really are 2 teams dumber than the Oilers.

    There are 2 ways to spend all of your picks on D. The Jackets made the Isles do it the hard way.

    On second thought if this is true maybe they offered the same to Tambellini.

  42. jonrmcleod says:

    Captain Obvious,

    So the Islanders wanted Murray? Columbus could have still drafted a good defenceman with the 4th pick–maybe even one that will be as good or better than Murray in the future.

  43. gogliano says:

    At this point I have to assume the NYI are in the NHL solely for the laughs and any shine he had has really come off of Howson. also interesting that the NYI are the team that traded down twice in the first round to gain as many late round picks as possible.

    Though if the offer were for the only consensus elite prospect in the draft (Yakupov) their offer might have made sense.

  44. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Captain Obvious:
    Apparently the Islanders offered their entire draft to the Blue Jackets for the #2 pick.

    http://www.bluejacketsxtra.com/content/blogs/puck-rakers/2012/06/isles-offered-all-their-picks.html

    This blows my mind if true.The only thing dumber than making this offer for the Islanders is turning it down.

    The spread of talent in NHL GM’s is extraordinary.Every time I hear something like this I wonder why the Oilers aren’t out there fleecing these horrible teams.Then I pause, and take solace for the Tambellini’s conservative nature.If he isn’t making a great deal at least he’s been successful at avoiding the spectacularly bad deals (see Gauthier, Pierre).

    That’s absolutely crazy…. as if to put a stamp on how crazy, the Isles were so invested in Murray (I guess) the went out and spent all their picks on D.

    How Howson walked away from that is totally beyond me.

    But it raises an interesting question: did they take a run at the Oil (they could get Murray with #1 after all)? And, should we have taken the deal…

    I’m pretty sure I would have.

  45. Jordan says:

    Captain Obvious:
    “Garth Snow just offered me a bag full of gold and diamonds for a used copy of my book, but Scott Howson says I should turn it down…”

    I want to see the comic that came out a few years ago of Tambelinni buying the rag for $500 edited, to have snow and Howson show up, with Snow offering 2K, and Howson telling the owner to hold out for more.

  46. gogliano says:

    Woodguy:
    As per Mirtle article:

    Here are the draft pick compensation figures for the 2012-13 season:


    $1,110,249 or below – No Compensation

    Over $1,110,249 to $1,682,194 – 3rd round pick

    Over $1,682,194 to $3,364,391 – 2nd round pick

    Over $3,364,391 to $5,046,585 – 1st round pick, 3rd

    Over $5,046,585 to $6,728,781 – 1st round pick, 2nd, 3rd

    Over $6,728,781 To $8,410,976 – Two 1st Round Picks, 2nd, 3rd

    Over $8,410,976 – Four 1st Round Picks

    6.7 million can buy a pretty great player.

  47. Captain Obvious says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I’d trade Yakupov to go to #3 but not to #4 because that would have meant getting Galchenyuk. However trading to #4 essentially amounts to trading Yakupov for Reinhart and Aberg with a bunch of flyers the rest of the way. I’d rather have Yakupov.

  48. pboy says:

    Woodguy: If Krueger gets hired, someone needs to make this picture their avatar.

    Its what Screech from Saved By The Bell will look like at 50.

  49. LMHF#1 says:

    I see the need to do something similar to your list of 9 LT, though if Jordan Tootoo comes to this team, the man loudly booing from the stands every time he touches the puck will be me. The guy makes a mockery of the game.

    1. D Justin Schultz. Get him.

    2. F Dustin Penner. We know what he can do, and he once again proved his ability to play playoff hockey the right way. If he’ll come back, you’ve got to give it a shot.

    3. D Ryan Suter. Absolutely take that shot. Not only might you get him, but you could then be afforded the chance to clear out some space and reunite him with Weber at a later date. A pair of guys who are sturdy and can eat 30 minutes when called upon make a lot of problems go away.

    4. F Ray Whitney. The man who was here once before, should have stayed, and has since tried multiple times to come back, should get his last hurrah here. A guy who can do what he did last year still has some game to give, and could teach the young’ns a lot.

    5. D Jason Garrison. For obvious reasons stated many times previously.

    6. F Brandon Prust. If you must have a guy like this, get one that goes looking for fights rather than cowers from them.

    7.D Dennis Wideman. Again, obvious reasons, discussed previously.

    8. A whack of trades. This is me spitballing now but you ship out Belanger, Jones, Eager, Sutton and Khabibulin.

  50. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Captain Obvious,

    Well, let’s see… are you so sure Columbus wouldn’t keep their heart set on a D?

    1. Murray (Isles)
    2. Reinhart/Reilly/Dumba??? (Col)
    3. Yakupov (Mont)
    4. Gal (Edm)

    Most likely you are right… it would end up being that cluster of Reinhart/Reilly/Dumba at 4… but it seems both the Isles and Columbus were committed to Murray over Yakupov.

    But even if it meant Reinhart (for example)… that’s a lot of picks to work with. Perhaps you could trade some away from actual NHL talent. Michalek and Visnovsky both went for basically nothing picks…

    At any rate… I wouldn’t walk away from it out of hand.

  51. Doug McLachlan says:

    Back to the goalie question, do we offer a Training Camp invite to Makarov out of Saskatoon? Understand he went undrafted and is overage? On that point, who ended up taking the Knights’ goalie and the Cataracts goalie (again , both overage)?

  52. rickithebear says:

    LMHF#1: 8. A whack of trades. This is me spitballing now but you ship out Belanger, Jones, Eager, Sutton and Khabibulin.

    Who the F……………………………………………………………………………… replaces Belanger and Jones on PK
    Belanger had 1st Pk minutes facing the 2nd best comp. making him top 10.

    Jones faced 1st comp with 1st minutes making him the 4th best PK option at wing.

    I wait your reply!

  53. Moosemess says:

    A short list of things I learned about many Oiler fans this past draft weekend.

    Many Oiler fans cite Detroit as the model franchise for the league and thus the model the Oilers should be emulating. However, when the Wing’s assistant GM Jim Nill confirms that the size advantage of recent Cup winners and the salary cap have the Red Wings factoring size as a crucial consideration in their draft decisions, the response to this info from the blogosphere is…crickets while the Oiler draft is immediately derided as a coke machine debacle.

    Oiler fans will speculate for weeks on end that the team’s idiotic brain trust will somehow blow the Yakupov pick by drafting Murray or trading the pick. Once Yakupov is taken, the decision will be written off as the predictable, safe choice of a dithering manager and complaints will be voiced that the team didn’t do enough to move up in the draft to secure an additional first round pick.

    When an Oiler fan says the teams needs to add size, they really mean, the team should not add size through the draft, through FA overpays or via any trade that would involve the team’s skill core. Presumably this leaves the final fan approved option which is the waiver wire?

    I really look forward to the day when this team is winning again, not just for the obvious reasons but to see what the fanbase will concote to complain about then? Presumably the hot topics at that time will be the myriad ways that management will screw up managing the cap thus dismantling the key competitive core.

    There are literally some Oiler fans who never say anything positive about the direction the club is heading in. Makes you wonder what joy they derive from following the proceedings?

  54. rickithebear says:

    LMHF#1: 8. A whack of trades. This is me spitballing now but you ship out Belanger, Jones, Eager, Sutton and Khabibulin.

    would you want these players with RNH & Eberle.
    Tavares-RNH-Eberle
    Lupul-RNH-Eberle
    Marleau-RNH-Eberle
    Couture-RNH-Eberle
    Semin-RNH-Eberle
    Zetterburg-RNH-Eberle
    Hossa-RNH-Eberle
    All of these guys have scored at the same rate as Ben Eager who is a .95EVG/60 player. which makes him a 19EVG/season player.
    But he has not been playing with RNH. 20+EVG would be the norm.
    Eberle is a 25EVG player.

    i have watched every one of his goals and Eager has one of the best wrist shots in the game.
    Watch Eagers on NHL.com!
    Then watch Taylor halls!
    It is eerie!

  55. Maverick says:

    From the 9 items on LT’s list I would suggest the following;

    1. Possible, try as hard as they did for Heatley and Hossa, get the big jet out and all troops on board to sell Schultz on coming to Edmonton. If successful a step in the right direction.

    2. Suter – Super long shot at best, I think its better to use the time and resources on someone else to wine and dine. But interested to see what happens in Nashville, might be a trade partner latter, lots of good d-man.

    3. Matt Carle – going to resign in Philly, he likes it there, use time and resources again on someone else.

    4. Good old and getting older Ryan Smyth – now to me this is a tough one, big fan watching him the first time in Oiler Silks but if he doesn’t like playing second fiddle to the kids and is a distraction in the room, then no. But if becomes a mentor to the kids as for how to be a ‘Pro” and citizen of the community than Yes I would sign him to a one year deal with incentives.

    5. Doubtful he signs here but Garrison has played the tough minutes PK, PP, 5×5 I had a link yesterday comparing him and Yandle, would like the Oilers to put the time and effort into signing this player, would be a nice balanced any situation player.

    6. Pass

    7. Pass

    8. Maybe if the dust settles and he is what is left than maybe last resort.

    9. I think he signs here, even if Eager is here or not, Tootoo would be a good emotional provider for the team, big hitting, shit-disturber.

    10. After July 1st and the dust settles the Rangers and Nashville would be the trade target teams, if the Rangers go big fish hunting, and need cap relief maybe a defenseman or Dubinsky might be available, if the Oilers can get Dubinsky that would be a solid pick up. Nashville has defensemen growing on trees down there, all depends on Weber RFA contract and if Suter goes. Still have Josi, Ellis, Klein, Blum and Roussel in the system. Plus Phoenix has a ton of young unproven d-man and they need forwards.

    Lots of options for Tambellini to act upon now we just have to wait and see if he can actually get something done.

  56. hags9k says:

    Traktor thanks for that interesting list of 20 years of Oiler goalie picks. Really puts things in perspective. Feel free to do the other 29 teams now!

  57. gd says:

    gogliano,

    I believe historians are going to be baffled when they try to figure out how a team can finish 30, 30, and 29 in a league with Cbus and the Islanders, while being in the top 10 in league revenues and not be accused of intentionally tanking. ST is either an evil genius or a buffoon. I am glad the we and Katz should know one way or the other in the next year.

  58. El Guapo says:

    Captain Obvious,

    I am not by any means defending Howson but it is possible that the BJ’s could not take that trade because they did not have sufficient room on their 90 player reserve list. The reserve list includes all players signed to SPC’s (both professionals as well as players signed but still playing in juniors), as well as all unsigned draft picks….I could not find their full reserve list to verify that theory though (capgeek only has professional players on it). But assuming they have 50 professional players under SPC’s, 14 unsigned draft picks (2 draft years times 7 picks each year), a handful of unsigned college draft picks (say 6), and say 10 players signed to SPC’s but returned to junior, that leaves them with only 10 spots left for the unsigned draft picks from 2012, and the trade proposed by the NYI would give them 12 picks this year.

    Anyway, this is just speculation on my part and a more resourceful person than myself could likely dig up their full reserve list to check.

  59. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Moosemess,

    Some of this is fair. Some of it is simply Straw Man argumentation.

    The speculation about Yak/Murray and mgt/scouts/owner is media driven. It makes sense that Oiler fans will follow the reports they are given. If most media with access to the team say “Murray” when the world says that’s a mistake… it is hard to fault the fans for questioning that decision.

    Likewise, when those insider reports turn out to be bogus and the same media start to float alternative theories (Katz overruled everyone; Mgt overruled the scouts)… it is hard to fault fans for talking about the theories and what they would mean for the team.

    Show me why wanting size and criticizing sub-optimal acquisition of size is mutually exclusive. This is a ridiculous notion.

    If I complain for a week that I want a sandwich for lunch after always getting soup, and then get a disgusting, week old miracle whip, pickle and liverwurst sandwich… you’re going to tell me “shut up you got a sandwich didn’t you!”

    Finally, you are right to call out the perennial pessimistic petes. They can be tiresome. But criticizing your beloved team, doesn’t make you a non-fan, nor does it make your beloved team any less beloved.

  60. bookje says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I think what is happening is that a previously ‘well connected’ media are running into a cone of silence from the Oilers management and staff nowadays and as a result are collecting chasing unfounded rumours more than they have in the past. Unlike bloggers like LT who have always had to be interesting without inside scoops, they are not used to actually presenting well thought out analysis or interesting writing.

  61. rickithebear says:

    With Stu Drafting : i would gladly take a teams next 20 picks in the 90 to 135 range for a bottom 1st pick.
    2012:
    Zharkov 91
    Gustafson 93
    Laleggia 123
    2011:
    Simpson 92
    Rieder 114
    Gernat 122
    2010:
    Blain 91
    Bunz 121
    2009:
    Bigos 99
    Rajalas 101
    Roy 133

  62. Captain Obvious says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Captain Obvious,

    Well, let’s see… are you so sure Columbus wouldn’t keep their heart set on a D?

    1. Murray (Isles)
    2. Reinhart/Reilly/Dumba??? (Col)
    3. Yakupov (Mont)
    4. Gal (Edm)

    Most likely you are right… it would end up being that cluster of Reinhart/Reilly/Dumba at 4… but it seems both the Isles and Columbus were committed to Murray over Yakupov.

    But even if it meant Reinhart (for example)… that’s a lot of picks to work with. Perhaps you could trade some away from actual NHL talent. Michalek and Visnovsky both went for basically nothing picks…

    At any rate… I wouldn’t walk away from it out of hand.

    How’s this for a scenario:

    1. Isles take Murray
    2. Blue Jackets take Reinhart or Forsberg or anybody but a Russian
    3. Canadians take Galchenyuk whom they said was at the top of their list.
    4. Oilers take Yakupov and the Islanders entire draft.

    Would that have been implausible? It seems impossible yet at the same time is consistent with everything that has been revealed publicly.

  63. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    bookje:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I think what is happening is that a previously ‘well connected’ media are running into a cone of silence from the Oilers management and staff nowadays and as a result are collecting chasing unfounded rumours more than they have in the past. Unlike bloggers like LT who have always had to be interesting without inside scoops, they are not used to actually presenting well thought out analysis or interesting writing.

    I think that’s right…. front and center is the media clusterfuck surrounding the draft and now the coaching situation and the peripheral fan discussion thereof… added to that mess is the new media angle… where rumours can be generated from anywhere (and are) and there is more pressure on the old media to justify themselves.

    typically that justification would take the form of accurate sourcing and sound analysis.. but in the new environment eyeballs matter more… so Eklund and BoobsAhoy!

    When the fans see that the new and old media don’t seem to have much of a handle on anything… well, no one comes out looking good.

    The flip-side is what you point out… what people like LT, Dellow, Zona, Willis etc. do that is invaluable is ignore the question of access and inside mumbo-jumbo altogether and simply deliver quality analysis of players, teams, decisions, options, etc.

  64. Woodguy says:

    Stauffer just said NYI didn’t make the same offer to the Oilers.

    He also just said that the scouts were not unaminous and many liked Murray.

  65. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Captain Obvious: How’s this for a scenario:

    1. Isles take Murray
    2. Blue Jackets take Reinhart or Forsberg or anybody but a Russian
    3. Canadians take Galchenyuk whom they said was at the top of their list.
    4. Oilers take Yakupov and the Islanders entire draft.

    Would that have been implausible?It seems impossible yet at the same time is consistent with everything that has been revealed publicly.

    oh man… that just blew my mind!

    that would have to go down as the greatest deal in the history of sports. get the top rated player at the 4 spot, keep everything and gain all of another teams picks… hilarious.

    Probably we would have ended up with Reinhart…. but at any rate, it would be interesting to hear if the Isles floated this to ST and if so why it got turned down.

    EDIT:

    Woodguy,

    didn’t see that before I posted…

    I wonder why they didn’t try for our pick… if they wanted Murray so bad, that would have been a way to guarantee the pick… what a weird organization.

  66. Doug McLachlan says:

    Perhaps this is the clearest indication yet that the drop-off in talent in this draft is pretty steep after the first few picks, no?

  67. Captain Obvious says:

    Why would they make that offer to the Blue Jackets and not the Oilers? That makes even less sense than making the offer at all.

  68. russ99 says:

    gogliano:
    At this point I have to assume the NYI are in the NHL solely for the laughs and any shine he had has really come off of Howson.also interesting that the NYI are the team that traded down twice in the first round to gain as many late round picks as possible.

    Though if the offer were for the only consensus elite prospect in the draft (Yakupov) their offer might have made sense.

    Biggest proof that NYI are in it for laughs were the guys sporting the Islanders “Wang” jerseys at their draft table…

    But none of this surprises me, there are no depths to the level of desperation an NHL GM may go… At least the Oilers haven’t gotten to this level, yet… ;)

  69. DSF says:

    Mark Seidel of Central Scouting grades the draft performance of the Canadian teams:

    http://sports.nationalpost.com/2012/06/25/top-scout-gives-canadiens-leafs-high-draft-grades/

  70. nathan says:

    Captain Obvious,

    Exactly. Unless Howson or Snow confirms this one I’m skeptical it is as described. Howson can’t be dumber than Snow. Maybe their 4th OV wasn’t in the offer.

  71. mattwatt says:

    rickithebear: would you want these players with RNH & Eberle.Tavares-RNH-EberleLupul-RNH-EberleMarleau-RNH-EberleCouture-RNH-EberleSemin-RNH-EberleZetterburg-RNH-EberleHossa-RNH-EberleAll of these guys have scored at the same rate as Ben Eager who is a .95EVG/60 player. which makes him a 19EVG/season player.But he has not been playing with RNH. 20+EVG would be the norm.Eberle is a 25EVG player.i have watched every one of his goals and Eager has one of the best wrist shots in the game.Watch Eagers on NHL.com!Then watch Taylor halls!It is eerie!

    We get it. Eager has a relatively high percentage when it comes to even-strength goals per 60. Issue is Eager on the rest of the ice. Yes, he would likely increase his points total riding shotgun with RNH and Eberle. He would also drag that line down. Watching Eager play the rest of the ice is interesting to say the least. He has all the talent, and nothing connecting it to his brain.

    You can put him shotgun with the kids. Just don’t expect many fans other than yourslelf to be pleased with the move.

  72. nathan says:

    Woodguy,

    He says he knows at least 2 scouts who were leaning each way and that Stu reserved his decision and met with Lowe, Tambi, and MacT Friday.

  73. hunter1909 says:

    I hope with all my heart to see Ryan Smyth in a Calgary Flames uniform next season.

    Smyth has no interest in being anything less than a local hero, despite having just had a pretty disastrous season(post November that is). He doesn’t think he should be playing in a role that’s any way less than the kids, which in fact makes him a cancer. He’s never been anything other than a mercenary of the high order in contract talks, but this time he’s washed up and doesn’t realise it, so out he goes.

    Oh yes. And ffs sign 2 NHL defencemen, Tambellini? Please? Because among other things, Ryan Whitney can’t be counted on for anything much other than IR.

  74. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    DSF,

    it’s odd to me that he gives Calgary such a pass for Jankowsky but hammers Edmonton for Moroz.

    I think both picks were mistakes at their respective #s. but I know which one was a bigger reach and it wasn’t Moroz.

  75. mattwatt says:

    I will post this here since I am not able to comment on CoppernBlue, but found this comment by Derek Zona to be interesting.

    #32 – Mitch Moroz, F, Edmonton Oil Kings: The Oilers did the stupid thing, taking a player they wanted to draft, but taking him 40-60 spots too early. Moroz was ranked somewhere south of 60, and there were three projected first rounders still available to them, but they went with the local kid instead. I could list the alternatives at #32, but there’s not enough time. Steve Tambellini said that they believed Moroz would be gone by the time they picked again at #63, so they jumped on him. This is the draft. When you pick at #32 and #63, it’s difficult to get a guy ranked at #50, unless you blow things up and get negative value out of your #32 pick. That’s exactly what the Oilers did. Moroz became a press row joke as soon as his name was called. Grade: F

    To begin with, Moroz was taken 21 spots to early by Bob McKenzie’s list (ranked 52) which I think many on here agree is the gold standard. Not 40-60. Furthermore, Gregor was on Oilers Nation this saturday saying with certainty that he would be gone by 50 for sure. So the Oilers took him likely took him 10-20 spots before he was gone. That type of move certainly does not deserve a failing grade.

    I agree that it would have been wiser for the Oilers to take a later draft pick and package it with the 3rd to move up into the later 40′s to take Moroz. I had wish they took some of the skill that was still on the board. Smarter move as I see it. However, the Oilers did far from anything that was a joke. They took a guy with size that many feel is developing skill. They took a guy with some upside who could be a valuable commodity to any team. If they are to take a chance with anyone, shouldn’t this be the type of player to do it on?

    I think many of us become enamored with draft rankings, and believe that we should follow the board and what the group says. I am fine with that thinking. However, if scouts for your team feel that someone has value and should be worth taking, I believe that should be done too. As always, the truth is somewhere between those two lines of thinking. As Lowetide says, the scouts spend the whole year looking for diamonds, shouldn’t you trust them when they say they think they have one?

    The Oilers likely did that. So be it. We have enough things to be mad about with this organization. Moroz in the second round shouldn’t be one of them.

  76. DSF says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    DSF,

    it’s odd to me that he gives Calgary such a pass for Jankowsky but hammers Edmonton for Moroz.

    I think both picks were mistakes at their respective #s. but I know which one was a bigger reach and it wasn’t Moroz.

    Yeah, I guess he sums it up in his last sentence when he thinks Calgary swung for the fences in a weak draft.

    Not sure Calgary can afford to do that.

  77. Boondock says:

    http://twitter.com/bradyfan590/status/217216094006554624

    Greg Brady is a radio guy from Toronto, hearing VAN is Schultz’s early favorite.

  78. Captain Obvious says:

    Seidel used the word “character” five times in assessing those drafts. “Character” is a word that signifies nothing. If you are using it as a qualifier that indicates hockey skills it is a good indication that you are incompetent.

  79. Cactus says:

    Maverick,

    I heard the same rumours about Carle going back to Philly, but I wouldn’t be so certain at this point. They just gave his slot to Schenn and assuming Pronger isn’t finished, they’ve already got 7 defencemen under contract. Plus, they’re planning to take a run at Suter. Carle may fall loose there if they go all in for Suter and he’d be worth a look.

  80. bookje says:

    nathan: liked

    Seems like a more plausible scenario than the other ones floating around (didn’t someone say Katz’ kid made the pick?).

  81. DSF says:

    Captain Obvious:
    Seidel used the word “character” five times in assessing those drafts.“Character” is a word that signifies nothing.If you are using it as a qualifier that indicates hockey skills it is a good indication that you are incompetent.

    Yeah…makes me wonder why Seidel is the Chief Scout for Central Scouting and you’re not.

  82. rickithebear says:

    mattwatt: He would also drag that line down. Watching Eager play the rest of the ice is interesting to say the least. He has all the talent, and nothing connecting it to his brain.

    What are you talking about.
    1.the clears space
    2. He scores goals.
    3. not afraid to take a suspension to protect.
    4. is the best GA forward on the team.
    5. increases the goalies Save % when he is on the ice. year to year from every team. Of coarse 4 years in a row on 3 different teams could be just luck. LOL.
    His shot differencial the last 4 years is -1.333SH/gm yet he has been 1.77GA/60.

    So just confirm:
    1. He scores goals
    2. Gives up less goals
    3. golies play better with him on the Ice.
    And you do not want him because?

  83. eidy says:

    The other interesting thing about Kaira is that he is a late birthday. He is 10 months younger than Yakupov. Somewhat similar to Klefbom last year.

    Interesting pick for sure.

  84. Woodguy says:

    nathan:
    Captain Obvious,

    Exactly. Unless Howson or Snow confirms this one I’m skeptical it is as described. Howson can’t be dumber than Snow. Maybe their 4th OV wasn’t in the offer.

    I don’t think it was an “amazing” offer.

    Basically its a high second rounder to move down two spots and not get your guy.

    All the other picks are magic beans in the worst way.

    3rd rounders are 15% to ever play 1 NHL game and it drops off from there.

    I think a high second is 40ish% to ever play a NHL game.

    Its a big handful of magic beans, but if you have Murray as a 10 and Reinhart as 7, then it makes sense to say no.

  85. gogliano says:

    eidy:
    The other interesting thing about Kaira is that he is a late birthday. He is 10 months younger than Yakupov. Somewhat similar to Klefbom last year.

    Interesting pick for sure.

    He is also going into Engineering at MTU. Not exactly a fluff major.

    Can’t think of comparables to his path thus far.

  86. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Captain Obvious:
    Seidel used the word “character” five times in assessing those drafts.“Character” is a word that signifies nothing.If you are using it as a qualifier that indicates hockey skills it is a good indication that you are incompetent.

    As I see it there are two ways sports media use the generality “character” and both have some value, although I completely agree they are overvalued and often used to evade a more careful and serious analysis.

    1) someone is “a character”:

    this generally means someone who brings an upbeat, jovial nature to their game and life in general. A good example would be Esa Tikkanen in this profile from SI years ago:

    http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:FxpPSqrOKoQJ:sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1140171/index.htm+http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com+/vault/article/magazine/MAG1140171/index.htm&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=ca&client=safari

    (had to use a cache as the article time’s out all the time)

    that kind of vigour is infectious and can have an impact on a team in the same way that a sour puss can have a negative impact.

    The media obviously overvalue these types of players because they make for good copy and the fans love them because we want more than machines out of our heroes.

    anyone, however, who drafts, trades or signs for this kind of character absent other qualities is an idiot.

    2) someone who “has character”:

    this usually refers to a sense that the player is committed to the team, community and winning above all. Basically a player that has character is the opposite of the Dorn type:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ccUDrB_8jQ

    A player has character when they lose a few teeth or take a nasty cut to the face but keep playing. It’s not a “skill” or a “talent” but it too has value.

    The media loves this kind of player too… they feed into the martial narratives of “sacrifice” and “community” that sports adopts. Fans, obviously enough, offer a great deal of public praise for this type of attribute.

    However, saying a player “has character” is often a tarted up way of saying the player is a plugger, or role player, a grinder, etc. a 3rd or 4th line guy. It can be, and often is, a way of covering for lesser talent.

    It too can be overvalued and is.

    But I would argue… without taking away the objection that the media ought to contextualize and define these qualities more precisely…. both of these qualities are real, connote meaning and have value.

  87. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: As I see it there are two ways sports media use the generality “character” and both have some value, although I completely agree they are overvalued and often used to evade a more careful and serious analysis.

    1) someone is “a character”:

    this generally means someone who brings an upbeat, jovial nature to their game and life in general. A good example would be Esa Tikkanen in this profile from SI years ago:

    http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:FxpPSqrOKoQJ:sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1140171/index.htm+http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com+/vault/article/magazine/MAG1140171/index.htm&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=ca&client=safari

    (had to use a cache as the article time’s out all the time)

    that kind of vigour is infectious and can have an impact on a team in the same way that a sour puss can have a negative impact.

    The media obviously overvalue these types of players because they make for good copy and the fans love them because we want more than machines out of our heroes.

    anyone, however, who drafts, trades or signs for this kind of character absent other qualities is an idiot.

    2) someone who “has character”:

    this usually refers to a sense that the player is committed to the team, community and winning above all. Basically a player that has character is the opposite of the Dorn type:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ccUDrB_8jQ

    A player has character when they lose a few teeth or take a nasty cut to the face but keep playing. It’s not a “skill” or a “talent” but it too has value.

    The media loves this kind of player too… they feed into the martial narratives of “sacrifice” and “community” that sports adopts. Fans, obviously enough, offer a great deal of public praise for this type of attribute.

    However, saying a player “has character” is often a tarted up way of saying the player is a plugger, or role player, a grinder, etc. a 3rd or 4th line guy. It can be, and often is, a way of covering for lesser talent.

    It too can be overvalued and is.

    But I would argue… without taking away the objection that the media ought to contextualize and define these qualities more precisely…. both of these qualities are real, connote meaning and have value.

  88. Woodguy says:

    Woodguy: I don’t think it was an “amazing” offer.

    Basically its a high second rounder to move down two spots and not get your guy.

    All the other picks are magic beans in the worst way.

    3rd rounders are 15% to ever play 1 NHL game and it drops off from there.

    I think a high second is 40ish% to ever play a NHL game.

    Its a big handful of magic beans, but if you have Murray as a 10 and Reinhart as 7, then it makes sense to say no.

    That being said, if you have Murray as an 8 and Reinhart as a 7 you grab that deal as fast as you can.

    By the sounds of it CBJ had Murray as a 10 and Reinhart as a 6 or 7.

    Lots of people thing Murray is Neidermyer apparently.

  89. Captain Obvious says:

    Of course, “character” has value. However, the problem with using “character” as part of your assessment is that human beings, especially at a distance, are terrible at assessing character. Moreover, if it is the first thing that comes out of your mouth it’s a dead giveaway for a bullshyte word meant to fill space while you hope that nobody knows what you are talking about (see Bayless, Skip).

    I mean seriously, many of us have jobs that require us to give evaluations of people. If we used the word character as the key feature of these evaluations every single time, both good and bad, we’d look ridiculous.

  90. Woodguy says:

    Woodguy: That being said, if you have Murray as an 8 and Reinhart as a 7 you grab that deal as fast as you can.

    By the sounds of it CBJ had Murray as a 10 and Reinhart as a 6 or 7.

    Lots of people thing Murray is Neidermyer apparently.

    Let’s put it this way.

    CBJ is convinced they have Niedermayer.

    In SN’s draft year, the next two guys to go were Scott Lachance and Aaron Ward.

    Would you trade SN for either of those guys + 6 picks (only 1 second rounder)?

    Probably not.

    So Howson said no.

    Its understandable.

  91. bookje says:

    Woodguy,

    Exactly, and the problem with a lot of later picks is that they fill spots on your reserve list. Organizations are built around having a range of prospects in their system and a whole load of additional weak/unlikely prospects is not necessarily a good thing.

    If it were this year’s first, next years first and a couple of seconds, it would have been a far more realistic option.

  92. Captain Obvious says:

    Woodguy,

    But that assumes so much confidence in your soothsaying abilities. All players have a chance of washing out. Even if you discount the rest of the picks (which you shouldn’t) it seems to me that the future value of Reinhart + Finn has to be higher than Murray (though if I was picking, I’d take Reilly + Aberg). Two rolls of the dice is more than one.

    The only way you say no to that deal is if you are very sure of Murray and very unsure of everyone after Murray. Given the track record of scouts predicting NHL success of defensemen that kind of confidence is not deserved.

  93. Captain Obvious says:

    Oilers qualified Omark. Count me as surprised. I’d be glad as well but this only prolongs the agony.

  94. DSF says:

    Captain Obvious:
    Of course, “character” has value.However, the problem with using “character” as part of your assessment is that human beings, especially at a distance, are terrible at assessing character.Moreover, if it is the first thing that comes out of your mouth it’s a dead giveaway for a bullshyte word meant to fill space while you hope that nobody knows what you are talking about (see Bayless, Skip).

    I mean seriously, many of us have jobs that require us to give evaluations of people.If we used the word character as the key feature of these evaluations every single time, both good and bad, we’d look ridiculous.

    In this context, character is short hand for a lot of desirable traits.

    One would assume that Seidel, in his capacity as Chief Scout, would have gleaned a great deal of information about the personality traits of these players based on their on-ice and off-ice performance.

    Throwing out his entire analysis and calling him incompetent because you object to his way of portraying that part of the assessment process seems just a tad knee jerk.

  95. dawgtoy says:

    Qualifying offers go to…

    Devan Dubnyk
    Sam Gagner
    Linus Omark
    Theo Peckham
    Jeff Petry
    Alex Plante
    Chris VandeVelde

  96. hockeyguy10 says:

    Cactus:
    Maverick,

    I heard the same rumours about Carle going back to Philly, but I wouldn’t be so certain at this point.They just gave his slot to Schenn and assuming Pronger isn’t finished, they’ve already got 7 defencemen under contract.Plus, they’re planning to take a run at Suter.Carle may fall loose there if they go all in for Suter and he’d be worth a look.

    The explaination I heard for the JVR/Schenn deal was Philly making room for Bobby Ryan(not TO making room for Schultz)and that Anaheim wants a defenceman in the swap. Philly may not have any spare D.
    I remember reading/hearing on the weekend that Ryan is pissed at the Ducks beccause his name keeps coming up.

  97. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Captain Obvious,

    I think it is safe to say both that “character” is used by sloppy analysts to mitigate faults in either the players or organizations they are covering and/or their own prowess as an analyst AND that character (in both the ways I identified it) is a perfectly reasonable, explicative marker of information regarding a player and/or organization.

    I simply think you are being too dismissive of the term and the value it engenders.

    I take it you suffer from never having studied literature or film? Here’s a hilarious comparative account of “character” in two Star Wars films, showing how one film created a distinct impression of attributes and the other created nothing (i.e., served as your bad hockey analyst):

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FxKtZmQgxrI

    start around the 6:40 mark

  98. LMHF#1 says:

    rickithebear: would you want these players with RNH & Eberle.
    Tavares-RNH-Eberle
    Lupul-RNH-Eberle
    Marleau-RNH-Eberle
    Couture-RNH-Eberle
    Semin-RNH-Eberle
    Zetterburg-RNH-Eberle
    Hossa-RNH-Eberle
    All of these guys have scored at the same rate as Ben Eager who is a .95EVG/60 player. which makes him a 19EVG/season player.
    But he has not been playing with RNH. 20+EVG would be the norm.
    Eberle is a 25EVG player.

    i have watched every one of his goals and Eager has one of the best wrist shots in the game.
    Watch Eagers on NHL.com!
    Then watch Taylor halls!
    It is eerie!

    So clearly if your assessment of Eager is correct, we will obtain a ransom for him in a deal. Sounds like he’s the key piece to grabbing an impact defenceman in fact.

  99. Woodguy says:

    Captain Obvious: But that assumes so much confidence in your soothsaying abilities. All players have a chance of washing out. Even if you discount the rest of the picks (which you shouldn’t) it seems to me that the future value of Reinhart + Finn has to be higher than Murray (though if I was picking, I’d take Reilly + Aberg). Two rolls of the dice is more than one.

    But and extra roll of the dice means nothing if you have the quality dropping off the face of a cliff.

    You say its impossible to have soothsayer ability to know, and given what everyone said about the top 8 you are probably not far off, but if you were convinced that it was like 2004 where the picks go:

    Ovechkin
    Malkin
    Barker
    Ladd
    Wheeler

    Do you really want to trade out of the top two for more picks?

    CBJ is saying they saw it that way, so they said no.

    If that’s what they really though, I don’t blame them for saying no to more 2nd round or lower picks in a weak draft that set a record for over agers taken.

  100. Woodguy says:

    dawgtoy:
    Qualifying offers go to…

    Devan Dubnyk
    Sam Gagner
    Linus Omark
    Theo Peckham
    Jeff Petry
    Alex Plante
    Chris VandeVelde

    That’s who I would have done too.

  101. LMHF#1 says:

    rickithebear: Who the F………………………………………………………………………………replaces Belanger and Jones on PK
    Belanger had 1st Pk minutes facing the 2nd best comp. making him top 10.

    Jones faced 1st comp with 1st minutes making him the 4th best PK option atwing.

    I wait your reply!

    I don’t have replacing Jones and Belanger’s PK minutes as a priority. We have several skill players (Hemsky and Eberle first among them) that should be getting PK time. Linus Omark could also be an effective PK’er if given a shot. Add to that the fact that PK specialists are dirt cheap, and it doesn’t really weigh heavily in my thought process.

    I have a very different view of the bottom of the roster and the makeup of a PK unit than the Oilers appear to.

  102. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    dawgtoy:
    Qualifying offers go to…

    Devan Dubnyk
    Sam Gagner
    Linus Omark
    Theo Peckham
    Jeff Petry
    Alex Plante
    Chris VandeVelde

    who does that leave out… and what exactly does that mean?

  103. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy,

    I think for me it’s simply the first blush of the trade idea… it certainly sounds bold on first hearing.

    For 1-4 I think it’s a longshot that I would probably avoid; for 2-4 I’d lose sleep over passing up on it and I’d definitely grill my scouts as to whether Murray actually = Niedermeyer and everyone else = Barker

  104. Gerta Rauss says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: who does that leave out… and what exactly does that mean?

    Well we can thank the baby Jesus it leaves out Barker. Omark is a head scratcher though.

  105. bookje says:

    Woodguy: That’s who I would have done too.

    You forgot Barker.

  106. Captain Obvious says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Hilarious. Thank you.

  107. russ99 says:

    Omark qualify is a no brained, it’s less than $1M to retain rights.

    At worst, he goes back to Europe and we eventually deal him for a pick.

    At best, Renney’s gone and since there’s no takers in the NHL, so he signs a 1 year cheap deal to come back. More likely if Krueger is the coach, but I still doubt he signs a two-way deal after how Renney jacked him…

  108. Gerta Rauss says:

    russ99,

    Yeah-perhaps with a new coach in place Omark gets another chance with the Oilers. He obviously has no value right now otherwise they would have moved him for anything on the weekend.

  109. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    In case anyone else didn’t know what this means, here’s a summary:

    The current team must extend a “qualifying offer” to a restricted free agent to retain negotiating rights to that player. Players who earned less than $660,000 in the previous season must be offered 110 percent of last season’s salary. Players making up to $1 million must be offered 105 percent. Players making over $1 million must be offered 100 percent.

    If the qualifying offer is not made, the player becomes an unrestricted free agent. If the player rejects a qualifying offer, he remains a restricted free agent.

    Read it on Global News: General Manager Steve Tambellini announced Monday afternoon the Edmonton Oilers have issued qualifying offers to seven players.

    http://www.globaltvedmonton.com/oilers+issue+qualifying+offers+to+seven+players/6442668005/story.html

  110. Mr DeBakey says:

    Omark qualify is a no brained, it’s less than $1M to retain rights.

    At worst, he goes back to Europe and we eventually deal him for a pick.

    Or, signs an offer sheet with another NHL teamfor less than $1,000,000 per
    The Oilers don’t match and receive no compensation.

  111. copperblueandwhite says:

    DSF,

    Mark Seidel of Central Scouting grades the draft performance of the Canadian teams:<

    That’s a pretty weak overview, dsf

  112. Moosemess says:

    The thing that bugs me about all the hysteria over the Moroz selection is it basically boils down to people thinking A) that draft rankings are impervious and teams should be drawn and quartered when their teams deviate too strongly from the rankings groupthink and/or B) a steadfast belief that Moroz is not a player with emerging skills at all, which is an outright condemnation of the Oiler scouting staff.

    Some have tried to condemn the pick but not the scouting staff by insinuating Tambellini forced a draft for need decision, but MBS has gone on record endorsing the Moroz pick so that position seems indefensible.

    Two things stand out here.

    1) If the draft rankings are impervious and any so-called reach pick is a mistake, why even have a scouting staff? Clearly from the reaction, any deviation from the rankings groupthink is unacceptable.

    Nevermind that MBS has demonstrated the ability before to find jewels in the rough, the kneejerk reaction espoused is that this talent abandoned him in the second round Saturday? I think a more prudent conclusion is we’re a good 3 years away from being able to fully appraise this pick/player. Or is patience only counselled when we like a prospect/pick from the beginning?

    In disgruntled Oiler Nation, the reality is a player like MPS gets and will continue to get tons of rope from Oiler fans so enamoured with the skill potential whilst overlooking the paucity of production. By contrast, Moroz will be starting under the microscope with Oiler fans from day 1. Welcome to WehatedDustinPennerville – population you.

    2) There seems a steadfast belief that drafting role players is a fool’s game and team’s should be chasing elite skill in each and every round. Nevermind that the limitations of the talent pool virtually assure the folly of this approach as the true talent dwindles with each successive round, what about the impact it has on your cap structure, team makeup, player morale and yes, that emphemeral character question?

    Why do teams emphasize character? How can character trump raw skill? Maybe an undrafted player like Mike Keane helps to explain that, he being one of only 10 players to win the Cup with 3 different teams. Maybe it’s illustrative to remember that just as the Red Wings had Yzerman, Lidstrom and Fedorov, they also had Maltby, McCarty and Draper.

    Or maybe it’s most helpful to look at the names on the Cup itself and realize that for every Nikolay Zherdev, Joe Thornton and Paul Kariya that didn’t get their name on the Cup, there’s a Tim Taylor, Brad Marchand or a Sammy Pahlsson who did. Championship teams invariably have a mixture of skill, size, character and a willingness from every player across the roster to know and play their role.

    Highly skilled prospects with Top 6 potential don’t magically wake up one morning and decide to selflessly remake themselves as 4th line pluggers once it’s clear that their talent didn’t meet expectations. That’s a fantasy, something I’m sure Ryan Smyth might attest to at the moment. The players that perform most admirably in that role are the ones who were drafted with that expectation in mind from the start, and will do whatever it takes to succeed in that limited role as their only ticket to stay in the dance.

    No one would expect Eric Belanger to become Henrik Sedin, and yet there are some who would have you believe that Linus Omark can become Jere Lehtinen. That’s a critical error in talent evaluation, one that harbours this flawed misconception that skill is the only attribute that determines success.

  113. bookje says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    russ99,

    Yeah-perhaps with a new coach in place Omark gets another chance with the Oilers. He obviously has no value right now otherwise they would have moved him for anything on the weekend.

    Unless the new coach has been hired and indicated an interest in playing Omark more often then Renney.

  114. Captain Obvious says:

    Moosemess,

    There is so much wrong about your post I don’t know where to begin.

    Also, Pavelec’ contract is horrific. The Jets are not a well run team.

  115. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Moosemess,

    So you are saying a team can’t be all Gretzky’s so that when the chance to draft Kurri comes up you draft Semenko?

  116. Kris11 says:

    I’d run with the following lineup:

    Hall-Gagner-Hemsky
    Smyth-Horcoff-Eberle
    AAA-RNH-Yakupov
    Eager-Belanger-MPS
    Hartikainen/Jones

    Schultz-BBB
    Smid-Petry
    Whitney-CCC
    Sutton

    To fill in AAA, BBB, and CCC you can sign UFA’s or try to trade Omark, Jones, Hartikainen, Peckham, prospects and picks, or use them in those spots.

    The may be better lineups that deal away key players on the above roster, e.g. Belanger, Smyth, etc. but then you’ll have to replace those players, presumably with UFAs. I’m not confident that Tambellini can do that, but the cap room is definitely, definitely there,

  117. Kris11 says:

    I am a littlw surprised they qualified Peckham.

    Does he have trade value? I hope so, but am not sure. I guess he can be sent down, but I’m still not sure what the point is.

  118. Rondo says:

    Those report cards for this years drat is ridiculous.

    We can just start evaluating the 2008 draft.

  119. Cactus says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    Omark qualify is a no brained, it’s less than $1M to retain rights.


    At worst, he goes back to Europe and we eventually deal him for a pick.

    Or, signs an offer sheet with another NHL teamfor less than $1,000,000 per
    The Oilers don’t match and receive no compensation.

    Qualifying Omark was the only way to hope to get anything in a trade for him. I didn’t find it surprising at all that he wasn’t dealt at the draft as most teams probably felt it was 50/50 whether Edmonton would just let him walk. Of course, there’s still a potential for an offer sheet, but I would be surprised if he got a one-way deal less than $1M AND have him sign it. Probably goes to Europe first.

  120. Maverick says:

    Cactus:
    Maverick,

    I heard the same rumours about Carle going back to Philly, but I wouldn’t be so certain at this point.They just gave his slot to Schenn and assuming Pronger isn’t finished, they’ve already got 7 defencemen under contract.Plus, they’re planning to take a run at Suter.Carle may fall loose there if they go all in for Suter and he’d be worth a look.

    If Carle does shake loose I think the Oilers should go hard after him, definitely top 4 defenseman. He can play in all situations.
    http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/players/playerpage/1103753/matt-carle

    I think the Flyers will move Timonen first, his cap hit is $6.3 M but real money is actual $3M, cap floor team may pick him up if available.

  121. Doug McLachlan says:

    Moosemess,

    I think that there will be gems found in this year’s draft but I’m not sure it will be clear where those jems are at this point. What seems very evident is that many, many GMs shared the view that this was a particularly weak draft so I’m ok with the direction Stu went – including Moroz.

    I suggested earlier and will repeat that I like the idea of Moroz getting a chance to audition for the shotgun roll he might potentially play on the Oilers with the Oil Kings. He’s 6’2″ 200+ at 18 and with one year of junior under his belt he is clearly a late bloomer but he jumped 99 spots up the CSB rankings from January and performed well at the combine. I’m not disappointed that they passed on some more conventional picks into slots they already have filled to take player they felt they didn’t have.

    Had the Zharkov (32nd CSB) and Moroz (72nd CSB) picks been reversed we would not be having this discussion.

  122. Traktor says:

    kris11:

    Horc and Smyth can’t keep up with Eberle.

    Those guys should be 10-12 minute per game players. Eberle should be 20+

  123. Captain Obvious says:

    Maverick,

    I saw Carle very bad in the playoffs. Philadelphia had huge problems with their D, and Carle was a big part of their D. Too much risk with him to go with a big contract.

  124. LMHF#1 says:

    I’m going to take a few of these. There are so many that I’m sure other people will jump in.

    Moosemess:
    which is an outright condemnation of the Oiler scouting staff.

    Nevermind that MBS has demonstrated the ability before to find jewels in the rough

    2) There seems a steadfast belief that drafting role players is a fool’s game and team’s should be chasing elite skill in each and every round.

    Maybe it’s illustrative to remember that just as the Red Wings had Yzerman, Lidstrom and Fedorov, they also had Maltby, McCarty and Draper.

    Highly skilled prospects with Top 6 potential don’t magically wake up one morning and decide to selflessly remake themselves as 4th line pluggers once it’s clear that their talent didn’t meet expectations.

    No one would expect Eric Belanger to become Henrik Sedin, and yet there are some who would have you believe that Linus Omark can become Jere Lehtinen. That’s a critical error in talent evaluation, one that harbours this flawed misconception that skill is the only attribute that determines success.

    I’ll go ahead and condemn a bunch of the scouting staff; they sure haven’t done too much that could be considered great or trending towards great.

    MacGregor has been no gemsmith to this point. We’ve had very few guys spring out of the woodwork and prove much of anything thus far.

    Drafting role players is a fools game. Absolutely. Zach Stortini is a perfect example of that. NHL role players are to a great extent, guys who had good numbers in their developmental years.

    Kirk Maltby scored FIFTY in junior and was traded to DET from the Oilers.

    McCarty had 55 in one of his junior seasons and was a skill pick.

    Draper joined the national team when he was 17 and was a nearly 2 PPG player in junior.

    All of these guys completely negate your paragraph on transformation. The things you note have been the rule. Talented scorers adapt their games. Marty Reasoner, Liam Reddox and a ton more if you want some more mediocre examples.

    Eric Belanger is old. Linus Omark is young. Omark also happens to have those “non-skill” things you’re talking about.

    Come on man…

  125. Maverick says:

    Captain Obvious:
    Maverick,

    I saw Carle very bad in the playoffs.Philadelphia had huge problems with their D, and Carle was a big part of their D.Too much risk with him to go with a big contract.

    I remember them having some trouble in the playoffs with all their defensemen, they missed Pronger. Considering the UFA crop and the lack of confidence I have in Tambellini’s ability to trade, Carle might be an ok option. Not my first choice and if the money gets to be crazy than I am with you and say no thank you to Carle if the dollars get too high.

  126. Traktor says:

    Hall RNH Eberle – they should be getting Kovalchuk minutes
    Hemsky Gagner Yakupov – if Hemsky doesn’t want to play LW he can fuck off
    Harty MPS Jones – MPS cheats for Defense.. why not try him in the middle
    Horc Belanger Eager – hopefully they don’t play a lot of minutes

    Smid Petry – these guys need to take the next step
    Whitney Schultz – a couple vets that should be able to at least not cost us the game
    Sutton Potter – hopefully Smid Petry take the next step

  127. Kris11 says:

    Traktor,

    Disagree with part of that.

    1. Eberle needs more minutes, yes. But his results last year were inflated by SH%. He might have trouble playing tough opposition w/out help.

    2. Horcoff and Smyth played tough minutes again. They will be called to do so again. You can put Hemsky on their line, if you’d like, and start that kine in their own zone against the toughest matchups to shelter RNH, Yakupov, etc. I put Eberle on that line to see if he can get better at playing the toughs while helped by Smyth. He might help spark their offense, too.

    That’s how I’d run this team. RNH and Yakupov get starts like the Sedins, and use the rest of the line up to try to saw off tougher assignments. Hall-Gagner-Hemsky/Eberle should be able to do that because Hall is an ES destroying robot sent back through time to kill the other teams best players’ moms. Smyth-Horcoff-Eberle/Hemsky should be able to do that because they have a history of playing tough minutes, (They’ll do better with better D behind them.)

    I’m not sure why I’m talking to you. But feel freeto use this as an opportunity to grind your Horcoff axe or talk about toughness or whatever. I won’t be reading.

  128. LMHF#1 says:

    Traktor:

    Harty MPS Jones – MPS cheats for Defense.. why not try him in the middle
    Horc Belanger Eager – hopefully they don’t play a lot of minutes

    We need a whole lot better group than that to make any progress.

  129. Moosemess says:

    RO, if Semenko’s the closest comparable you can come up with for Mike Keane or Brad Marchand, then I think you’ll struggle to connect the dots with the point I’m making here.

    Suffice it to say drafting by rote is no way to build a championship roster. And when a team becomes utterly enamored of skill with no consideration for character, you often end up with Steve Kelly instead of Shane Doan.

    Essentially the challenge is this: make a case against the Moroz selection that doesn’t presuppose that 1) Reach picks that go against the grain of conventional draft rankings should never be made & 2) That Moroz would have been available in the 3rd round.

    Because in presupposing the first, you’re suggesting that scouting staffs are largely irrelevant and with the second, you’re suggesting the Oiler scouting staff has no capability to determine where players should rank in draft priority and the wisdom of the herd knows better – which essentially is a variation of the first point repeated.

    MBS has broke with convention with a number of picks, the most notable being the sliding Jordan Eberle. I for one am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt with this pick as opposed to thinking Bob McKenzie is the only person qualified to determine in what slot players should be drafted.

  130. Kris11 says:

    I’d start running the super kids out on the PP like I was coaching the London nights and they were all Schremp and Kane and whatnot. All night long…

    I like how Kruger ran the lineup when Renney was all woozy. But wasn’t he George’ Costanza’s boss for a while?

  131. LMHF#1 says:

    Moosemess:

    Suffice it to say drafting by rote is no way to build a championship roster. And when a team becomes utterly enamored of skill with no consideration for character, you often end up with Steve Kelly instead of Shane Doan.

    MBS has broke with convention with a number of picks, the most notable being the sliding Jordan Eberle.

    Check your stats already. Doan outscored Kelly in their draft year by more than 20 points.

    You’re also going to suggest Eberle was a reach?? Again, come on man…

  132. Doug McLachlan says:

    Seeing some other RFAs that did not get qualified, I see that Vancouver didn’t qualify Marc-Andre Gragnani. I thought I read somewhere that his advanced math numbers were worth looking at. Now that he’s going UFA, might he be Cam Barker gamble-worthy?

  133. DSF says:

    copperblueandwhite:
    DSF,

    Mark Seidel of Central Scouting grades the draft performance of the Canadian teams:<


    That’s a pretty weak overview, dsf

    Depends on whose ox is being gored I expect.

    I think he summed things up pretty well.

    Montreal killed the draft IMO, Toronto got two very promising young defensmen early and also managed to pick up the big top 6 forward they were looking for.

    Vancouver appears to have done well in the first round when Gaunce dropped to them and then proceeded to do Moneyball drafting in the later rounds.

    http://blogs.theprovince.com/2012/06/25/mike-gillis-familiar-draft-strategy.

    Nothing special IMO about the Ottawa or Winnipeg drafts and I think the Oilers likely screwed up the second round and went with projects after that.

  134. Moosemess says:

    LMHF#1, the prospect’s performance in junior doesn’t assume they were drafted with that role in mind for the pros.

    LT talks about 5 tool players and there’s a ton of junior prospects who manage to put up points in the minors thanks to 1 or 2 exceedingly strong tools. However most of these 1 dimensional phenoms learn quite quickly where they fit in the pecking order of the NHL and they either embrace the new role for which they were drafted or suffer.

    Yes, transformation of former stars does occur. Trottier remaking himself to win another Cup with the Pens is a good example, but it’s typically vets playing out the string. The Marty Reasoner and Kirk Maltbys of this league aren’t coming in thinking they’ll be the next Doug Weights or Steve Yzermans. They’re coming in looking to find a role and take direction from the coaching staff on what that role will be.

    Is there ample evidence to indicate players like Reasoner and Draper failed with sufficient Top 6 minutes in the show before they fell down the depth chart? If not, how are you making a case for these players as examples of ‘transformational’ success stories?

    Yes Omark has skill, but it’s laughable to think this player has the other intangibles needed to transform himself into a Jere Lehtinen or even a Jay Pandolfo. What in anything he’s shown indicates he can fill that role? Don’t waste your time trying to turn Nikolay Zherdev into John Madden. Draft John Madden instead.

  135. Woodguy says:

    nathan:
    Lookee who’s guest blogging for Bruce:

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2012/06/25/who-is-jujhar-khaira-guest-expert-ben-crazy-coach-berland-gives-a-sneak-preview/

    Beauty.

    Good stuff Crazy Coach!

    Nice resume too. Well done sir.

    If you cut your goat into a Fu Man Chu that would look seriously badass.

  136. Moosemess says:

    LMFH#1, check your facts. Points production is not the only determinant of skill. The Oilers were absolutely orgasmic about Kelly’s skating ability coming into that draft. They greatly overvalued the potential of that talent whilst greatly undervaluing Doan’s character and the contribution that would make towards a winning hockey club.

  137. Moosemess says:

    I’m not suggested Eberle is a reach. I’m suggesting he’s an example of the Oilers breaking with the conventional wisdom of that draft. Numerous teams let him slide down the board on draft day but Stu knew better and made a value pick. Time vindicated that decision and it’s quite possible the same will happen with Moroz.

  138. Captain Obvious says:

    Moosemess,

    As others have pointed out Shane Doan was a skill pick. Even if we grant that hockey teams have distinct roles (which I don’t) that doesn’t mean that hockey teams need “role players.” Rather, it means that hockey teams need players that fill roles. These two sentences are not equivalent.

    What it comes down to is this. 95% of the time first line players in junior become third line players in the NHL, and third line players in junior struggle to make the ECHL. If you want to find a good role player in the NHL the best way to find him is to draft a player that can score in junior. It turns out that scoring ability in junior is the best predictor of NHL success. It may sound counterintuitive but if you want to find a good defensive center you should draft the best scorer you can find.

    Offensive skills translate to defensive quality far more readily than defensive skills translate to offensive ability. Ergo, when drafting forwards, you should draft for offensive ability with every single pick.

  139. CrazyCoach says:

    gogliano,

    I also know that Khaira scored just a mere 96% average in his grade 12 courses this year.

    Could we compare his school path to Joe Juneau’s at RPI? Juneau completed his space aeronautics degree (5 year) in three years and didn’t speak a word of English when he got there.

  140. VOR says:

    Doug,

    If Marc-Andre Gragnani is now an unrestricted free agent the Oilers should definitely make him an offer. A superb two way D in junior in PEI with scoring numbers nobody in this years’ draft can match that in 2010-2011 won the Eddie Shore Award as top D-man in the AHL is worth taking a risk on. The thing is in the NHL on a regular basis Gragnani got blown around like a pylon and appeared to lose his confidence. So he is a project. He should be both an upgrade on Barker and cheaper.

  141. CrazyCoach says:

    Woodguy: Good stuff Crazy Coach!
    Nice resume too. Well done sir.
    If you cut your goat into a Fu Man Chu that would look seriously badass.

    Thanks Woodguy! Once I’m done school, I’d like to do more writing on prospects.

    You know summer league is coming and I do need a new look to intimidate all those young pups I play against. They seem to get younger every year and I get older, and not in a Matthew McConaghy way either.

  142. Captain Obvious says:

    Moosemess,

    But the Eberle example demonstrates the exact opposite of Moroz. When people criticize the Moroz pick it is because they think that instead of making a reach pick they should pick a slider. The guys that slid through the first round are far, far, far, infinitely far, more likely to be the next Eberle than Moroz.

    So we can add another axiom to drafting strategy. Slide picks are always better than reach picks.

    Your use of Doan also demonstrates exactly the opposite of what you want it to demonstrate. Doan didn’t turn out better than Kelly because he has better character. He turned out better than Kelly because he was always better than Kelly (as the numbers indicate) but the Oilers blinded themselves by becoming enamored with some imagined trait.

    Really, you sound like Skip Bayless here. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hv2jqFd2-qI

  143. Traktor says:

    I would post all the things wrong with kris11′s post but he wont be read it anyways and the rest of us aren’t living in 2006.

  144. Lowetide says:

    CrazyCoach:
    gogliano,

    I also know that Khaira scored just a mere 96% average in his grade 12 courses this year.

    Could we compare his school path to Joe Juneau’s at RPI?Juneau completed his space aeronautics degree (5 year) in three years and didn’t speak a word of English when he got there.

    This article was pointed out to me today! Great job, CC.

  145. CrazyCoach says:

    Thanks LT!

    Just following in your footsteps.

  146. Moosemess says:

    Captain Obvious, what about this scenario? You enter the draft as a nearly complete Cup contender with one glaring deficiency, You don’t have a defense first center who can dominate on the dot.

    As the draft plays out, every time your pick comes up, you have the option to draft an absolute stud on the dot who put up modest points in college or a point producer with no faceoff abilities whatsoever. You continually go with the points producer in the hopes that one of them can become the faceoff man and shutdown center you so desperately need.

    I suspect your answer is you draft the skill and sign this player through other means. Congratulations you just drafted Linus Omark and signed Eric Belanger when you should’ve drafted John Madden.

  147. LMHF#1 says:

    Moosemess:
    LMFH#1, check your facts. Points production is not the only determinant of skill. The Oilers were absolutely orgasmic about Kelly’s skating ability coming into that draft. They greatly overvalued the potential of that talent whilst greatly undervaluing Doan’s character and the contribution that would make towards a winning hockey club.

    Kelly was a Moroz pick. Simply replace “Oooh, he’s tough” with “Oooh, he’s fast”. Doan was always better at hockey.

  148. nathan says:

    “Slide picks are always better than reach picks”

    Really?
    Might as well let Bob McKenzie dole out the rosters.
    Do we pay a little extra for late risers or do we give Bob a few extra months to get everyone locked into place?
    Bob had the guy in the 2nd round and consensus is he would be gone by the middle of that round.
    Given the number of actual picks traded up into the top 50 are we really going to judge going 10 picks early on a riser before his 2nd year of Junior?

  149. Joe Nova says:

    Not sure if this has been mentioned before but I will put it out there. When ANA traded Visnovsky to NYI, could it have been a display by ANA to lure Schultz into signing with them? Could they end up signing him after all?

  150. Moosemess says:

    Steve Kelly’s skating ability was not an imagined trait. There are obvious skills (skating, stickhandling, passing) and there are not so obvious skills (tenacity on the boards, ability to fight for position in the slot, hustle and positioning on the backcheck).

    The Oilers mistake in drafting Kelly was overrating the obvious skills at the expense of the not so obvious skills that so often contribute to victories.

  151. LMHF#1 says:

    Moosemess:
    LMHF#1, the prospect’s performance in junior doesn’t assume they were drafted with that role in mind for the pros.

    LT talks about 5 tool players and there’s a ton of junior prospects who manage to put up points in the minors thanks to 1 or 2 exceedingly strong tools. However most of these 1 dimensional phenoms learn quite quickly where they fit in the pecking order of the NHL and they either embrace the new role for which they were drafted or suffer.

    Yes, transformation of former stars does occur. Trottier remaking himself to win another Cup with the Pens is a good example, but it’s typically vets playing out the string. The Marty Reasoner and Kirk Maltbys of this league aren’t coming in thinking they’ll be the next Doug Weights or Steve Yzermans. They’re coming in looking to find a role and take direction from the coaching staff on what that role will be.

    Is there ample evidence to indicate players like Reasoner and Draper failed with sufficient Top 6 minutes in the show before they fell down the depth chart? If not, how are you making a case for these players as examples of ‘transformational’ success stories?

    Yes Omark has skill, but it’s laughable to think this player has the other intangibles needed to transform himself into a Jere Lehtinen or even a Jay Pandolfo. What in anything he’s shown indicates he can fill that role? Don’t waste your time trying to turn Nikolay Zherdev into John Madden. Draft John Madden instead.

    The players being discussed were good hockey players whether they were “drafted for that purpose” or not. As is clearly referenced by others here, scoring in junior is the best predictor of future success compared to other things.

    Do you happen to remember Marty Reasoner when he was drafted by the Blues or acquired by the Oilers? I suggest you go check out how he and Hecht were referenced. They were not supposed to be pluggers.

    I also really don’t think you’re going to try a TOI based argument when you know those stats aren’t available. You can do better than that.

    Also, you don’t draft John Madden. You sign him as an undrafted FA like NJD did.

  152. Moosemess says:

    Yep, Nathan

    nathan:
    Given the number of actual picks traded up into the top 50 are we really going to judge going 10 picks early on a riser before his 2nd year of Junior?

    Yep, it seems that’s exactly what the groupthink would have us do.

    Unfortunately, there’s something about conventional wisdom leading to conventional results that I think would make it difficult to win Stanley Cups.

  153. Moosemess says:

    I would daresay that drafting John Madden before he gets to FA status and is thus available to NJ is the smarter decision in hindsight.

  154. gd says:

    nathan:
    “Slide picks are always better than reach picks”

    Really?
    Might as well let Bob McKenzie dole out the rosters.
    Do we pay a little extra for late risers or do we give Bob a few extra months to get everyone locked into place?
    Bob had the guy in the 2nd round and consensus is he would be gone by the middle of that round.
    Given the number of actual picks traded up into the top 50 are we really going to judge going 10 picks early on a riser before his 2nd year of Junior?

    It’s way too early to call Moroz Steve Kelly yet. I would hope that if Steve Kelly played for a team owned by the Oilers, they would have had enough inside info on him to have not picked him.

  155. Lowetide says:

    The thing about Moroz is they have knowledge of the player. They know the time he spent on the 4line, the situation he was put in on the club and whether or not he got a push. For the record, JG (who was at the draft) told me four teams told him Moroz was on their radar in the second round.

    We’ll never know, but this wasn’t a Niinimaki type pick.

  156. Gret99zky says:

    I agree with a former post.

    If Zharkov was picked before Moroz (based on Mackenzie, etc.) nobody would doubt either as furiously as they are.

    Stu picked the other way around. Good on him.

    And LT,

    What is the line in the sand with regards to Smyth? Sounds like role more than salary. Do you give him the second line minutes? There’s not even a coach yet.

  157. mike.c33 says:

    I think the argument that picking a slider is better than making a reach pick is rendered moot by Paajarvi. Sure, Eberle covered his bet but, if I remember correctly, Paajarvi slid a little too and he had quite a little difficulty putting the puck in the net this past season.

    Forsberg slid quite far in the draft too. I imagine the scouts, being a little smarter than we give them credit for, recognized that Forsberg was putting up numbers similar to Paajarvi in a lesser league (just like some people here recognized!).

    I think we should all give the Moroz pick the benefit of the doubt.

  158. nathan says:

    Moosemess,

    The extreme version of the skill argument is that Datsyuk was drafted at 171st and Zetterberg was drafted at 210, so look for ponies in every round and everything else can be procured by trading excess skill (see Omark, Linus)

    But let’s assume we all agree that the top 20 is all about high skill and that below 40 it’s mostly about spotting opportunities. The key argument is in between 20 and 40. As per Jim Nill that depends on what the current game and cap structure favors, what’s in short supply, over-priced, identifiable etc. Would love to see analysis of strategies in that area beyond counting stats.

  159. nathan says:

    Lowetide,

    LT. Agreed. Suprisingly unlikely that that a late riser with that skill set and those results from that ice time in his only junior year was going to last past the middle of the 2nd round. Just too much improvement in that long first year and too much space he opened up in a deep run.

    The question is not so much to the Oilers per se but the other GMs. Are they trying to hard to find big guys that can crash the offensive zone at reasonable speed? We’ll see, but Nill’s comments make it a fair question. 4th line is the most likely result but doubt that’s the whole story.

  160. nathan says:

    “If Zharkov was picked before Moroz (based on Mackenzie, etc.) nobody would doubt either as furiously as they are.”

    Gret99zky,

    But sliders are always better than risers. So no slider-offset credits for Stu factoring in market demand. Break even is not good enough when you can double your sliders.

  161. nathan says:

    “I think we should all give the Moroz pick the benefit of the doubt.”

    mike.c33,

    Sure. But if his 2nd Junior year is not good I’m burning any cribs the scouts have rented.

  162. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Moosemess,

    Semenko was hyperbole… fine… so you’d think… till you look at his numbers….just look at his draft year:

    1976-77 Brandon Wheat Kings WCHL 61 27 33 60 265

    compare that to Moroz:

    2011-12 Regular Season Edmonton Oil Kings 66 16 9 25 131

    If my tough guy is scoring a PPG with 27 goals… I’m pretty ecstatic.

    Look. I’m not saying the world collapsed, or that Moroz is a guaranteed bust. I’m saying more reliable options were on the table. That may sound pedestrian… but I’d take pedestrian but reliable picks over wildcards that flame out most days.

    Captain Obvious,

    I think you are right about drafting offence… but don’t be so quick to get dazzled by the numbers… Schremp scored a ton in junior, just saying.

  163. mike.c33 says:

    I am disappointed the Oilers didn’t draft Nick Ebert in the 7th round. He was expected to go top 10 at the start of his season and the Kings got him with the last pick of the draft.

  164. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    mike.c33,

    we didn’t have a 7th rounder this year. could have taken him in the 6th I guess.

  165. nathan says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    You realize you are comparing 2nd Junior year to 1st. Working without TOI, increasing role and counting splits etc. Wild card isn’t the exact phrase for a rising 2nd round consensus pick.

  166. DSF says:

    Moosemess:
    Captain Obvious, what about this scenario? You enter the draft as a nearly complete Cup contender with one glaring deficiency, You don’t have a defense first center who can dominate on the dot.

    As the draft plays out, every time your pick comes up, you have the option to draft an absolute stud on the dot who put up modest points in college or a point producer with no faceoff abilities whatsoever. You continually go with the points producer in the hopes that one of them can become the faceoff man and shutdown center you so desperately need.

    I suspect your answer is you draft the skill and sign this player through other means. Congratulations you just drafted Linus Omark and signed Eric Belanger when you should’ve drafted John Madden.

    Or you could have just gone out and acquired the real John Madden (Florida did), or Sami Pahlsson (Vancouver did).

    Players like that are always available.

    Drafting them at the top of the second round is a huge fail.

  167. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    nathan:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    You realize you are comparing 2nd Junior year to 1st. Working without TOI, increasing role and counting splits etc. Wild card isn’t the exact phrase for a rising 2nd round consensus pick.

    I was just showing how even in the most hyperbolic case off the top of my head… of a character/role player/tough guy/yadayada…. ie. Semenko

    he shows up way better in his draft year than Moroz. Was he older, did he have more experience… was it a different era, etc… yes…

    point still stands: no one was guessing Semenko would be able to score when they pulled his card; we are with Moroz.

    Semenko turned out to be pretty reliable in the NHL without scoring; and Moroz might turn out to be a bonafide NHL scorer… but which is more of a reach.

    alright… not “wild card” how about “unforced risk”?

  168. Captain Obvious says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Of course. I’m sure you know this but I’m not saying every offensive player pans out. I’m saying you have to be an offensive player in order to pan out.
    Moosemess,

    If I’m one defensive first center who can win draws away from having a cup contender I’m not giving the job to a 19 year old kid. The draft shouldn’t be used to plug holes in your roster because by the time these kids are ready to play you have different holes than you thought you had. The draft is about talent. That’s it. Immediate needs should be filled through free agency and trades. Just because our team never makes any moves that work out doesn’t mean that it’s impossible.

    [Edit] This wasn’t later in the draft when everything is a shot in the dark. This was the equivalent of a late first round pick with high end talent still on the board. People would hate this pick if we hadn’t also had the first overall. However, whether we have Yakupov or not shouldn’t evaluate the value received from a late first round pick.

  169. Lowetide says:

    Gret99zky:
    I agree with a former post.

    If Zharkov was picked before Moroz (based on Mackenzie, etc.) nobody would doubt either as furiously as they are.

    Stu picked the other way around.Good on him.

    And LT,

    What is the line in the sand with regards to Smyth?Sounds like role more than salary.Do you give him the second line minutes?There’s not even a coach yet.

    Well you can’t promise him 2line minutes now, Yakupov has closed up that slot. The top wingers on lines 1 and 2 will be Hall, Yakupov, Eberle and Hemsky.

    At this point I’d offer him a “Pisani mentor” role for Hartikainen and Paajarvi and Lander etc. Smyth could jump up when the kids are struggling but good grief the Oilers are psycho killers at his position.

    And you’re right, you don’t know the coach, havent asked Hall if he’ll play C all that stuff is in the future. I think there must be a way to get this done.

  170. nathan says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Show up better? You have their TOI? You can at least compare last half of Semenkos’s 2nd season to the last half of Moroz’s first, etc?

    No they are not guessing he will post crooked numbers. They do believe he will make space, crash the offensive zone, tilt the ice in the post red-line cycle game and otherwise make serious non-limited minute contributions. ‘Skilled’ sliders can carry unforced risk too. I’d rather see some real historical numbers on rising first year consensus 2nd rounders before jumping to conclusions about their in close assessment.

  171. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Moosemess,

    Semenko was hyperbole… fine… so you’d think… till you look at his numbers….just look at his draft year:

    1976-77Brandon Wheat KingsWCHL61273360265

    compare that to Moroz:

    2011-12 Regular SeasonEdmonton Oil Kings 6616925131

    If my tough guy is scoring a PPG with 27 goals… I’m pretty ecstatic.

    Look. I’m not saying the world collapsed, or that Moroz is a guaranteed bust. I’m saying more reliable options were on the table. That may sound pedestrian… but I’d take pedestrian but reliable picks over wildcards that flame out most days.

    Captain Obvious,

    I think you are right about drafting offence… but don’t be so quick to get dazzled by the numbers… Schremp scored a ton in junior, just saying.

    Semenko had the benefit of playing two extra seasons before being drafted. He turned 20 about a month after his draft.

  172. nathan says:

    Lowetide,

    LT, Good catch. It’s reasonable to project Moroz after one year close well ahead of Semenko’s 3rd year draft day projection. Not counting on him to be another Semenko. Not that there would be anything wrong with that.

  173. nathan says:

    LT, Until we get TOI, Corsi, splits etc, there must be at least a half round leeway from consensus for close-in scouts before we judge the risk involved.

  174. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    nathan,

    What’s your objection to “shows up better”? it’s syntactically awkward, sure. but it makes sense doesn’t it?

    at the time of their respective drafts the boxcars make Semenko (a hyperbolic example) look good next to Moroz.

    We have no TOI for any of these players, I’m not sure why you are bringing it up. I’m saying if you were a GM at some weird convergence of the 77 and 12 drafts and you had Semenko and Moroz’s boxcars… who would you pick??

    (fine it’s a stupid counter-factual… but that’s the hyperbolic fun!)

    Lowetide,

    But that was the draft convention at the time. He was no older than the rest of his draft class. They were all 20 year olds.

    I’m not saying it’s the best comparison (I introduced it to make a hyperbolic point, I’m not wedded to it)

    If the principle Moosemess is operating on is: BPA isn’t always the best option because otherwise we are:

    1) neglecting other needs (size, position, role, etc)
    2) following consensus for its own sake

    Than, we ought to pursue non-conventional picks to fit our defined needs…

    I’d still say a player like Frk. would be a better bet.

  175. Lowetide says:

    Romulus: Oh, agreed. I’m a big believer in bpa, and when a scouting staff goes walkabout like this imo they need to be right. MBS and his staff decided to go looking for a big, tough and skilled forward and drafted two in the second round.

    As I sift more through this stuff though it seems as though those two players have more going on than it first appeared. I’ve updated both Moroz and Khaira and some of the verbal is impressive.

    Moroz
    Redline Report: Big, edgy power forward plays an in-your-face style and looks to initiate hard contact all over the ice. A feared enforcer who picked up 20 fighting majors, yet skates and handles the puck well enough to take regular shifts. Coaches eventually rotated him into the top six to give scoring lines a boost – gives smaller, skilled linemates more room to work with his physicality. Has surprising offensive tools with a heavy snap shot. Puckhandling confidence is soaring and he’s willing to try things with the puck now he wouldn’t have dreamed of six months ago. Skating enables him to play in open ice and even has decent lateral agility. Spins off checks to find space and gets to open ice. Emerging force uses great size/strength to dominate below the circles and is impossible to move around crease. Development curve is heading straight up and has upside.
    (and Kirk Luedeke emailed me to say that RLR should have ranked him higher)

    Khaira
    Redline Report At Red Line, we believe this kid could be the biggest/best sleeper of the entire draft. Prince George is so far off the beaten path teams don’t even travel there for WHL games, much less BCHL contests, so he gets zero exposure. But this kid is big, mean, aggressive, nasty, and guess what… he can score too. Does the dirty work in the corners, bangs bodies and wins battles, and loves to initiate heavy contact. Powerful stride with great balance and gets leverage on his hits. Has surprisingly soft hands and puck skills with playmaking ability. Creates lots of space for smaller teammates and makes everyone braver. Very raw defensively.
    (with apologies to CC, I have been to PG it isn’t that far away).

  176. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide,

    Appreciate that… and appreciate your update with more info.

    I definitely agree, my sense is that the full force of the picks hit me pretty hard and I’ve warmed a bit. But like I’ve said before… I was never all the way over in the Zona camp thinking this was a bust or a joke or a radical misfire.

    That said, my reservations about the picks (especially Moroz) haven’t evaporated.

  177. nathan says:

    Lowetide,

    “when a scouting staff goes walkabout like this imo they need to be right.”

    They went for a stroll within the correct round. So there definitely is enough leeway there to judge them down the road.

    “As I sift more through this stuff though it seems as though those two players have more going on than it first appeared.”

    Can’t say fairer than that. We’ll see soon enough.

  178. nathan says:

    “I’m a big believer in bpa”

    The following order. Is that BPA? upsides? grading Stu? something else?

    Daniil Zharkov
    Jujhar Khaira
    Joey Laleggia
    Mitch Moroz

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