HARVEST MOON

The Edmonton Oilers drafted another elite offensive talent this weekend, another outstanding teenager with a magnificent future. Old Oiler fans like me are reminded of the fab four who arrived 30+ years ago and cut through the NHL for a decade. Young Oiler fans can look forward to better days and perhaps their first Stanley in memory.

One thing we all share: Oiler fans have had enough of looking forward to draft day as climax to each season. Enough. This organization’s upper management should move up or move on.

  1. #1 overall: R Nail Yakupov. Ridiculous talent combined with swagger and attitude. Yakupov has great personality and should give Oiler fans a lot to cheer for on and off the ice. Perhaps this young Russian can win the Calder trophy for a franchise that still hasn’t been honored with the trophy. NHLE 82, 18-22-40.
  2. #32 overall: L Mitchell Moroz. Coke Machine selection that takes Oiler fans back to the days of Kevin Prendergast, Moroz was taken when their was more skill on the board. The organization may be familiar with him because he’s an Oil King, and his TOI ranged from 4th to 2nd line during the season. NHLE 82, 6-3-9.
  3. #63 overall:F Jujhar Khaira.Another big forward (6.03, 195) with room to grow, he played in the BCJHL and Redline suggests he was underscouted. Quoting RLR: this kid is big, mean, aggressive, nasty, and guess what, he can score too. NHLE 82, 6-11-17.
  4. #91 overall: L Daniil Zharkov. The second most famous prospect Edmonton drafted this weekend, Zharkov is also Russian and another strong personality. At 6.03, 200 he fits the Coke Machine description (or will) but has enough skill to be considered a good hockey player. NHLE 82, 11-7-18.
  5. #93 overall: D Erik Gustafsson. Very interesting player, he’s 20 years old and one imagines the Oilers might bring him over right away for OKC. Gustafsson’s size (6.0, 176) runs out of time with the Coke Machine theme of this season’s draft. NHLE 82, 5-6-11.
  6. #123 overall: D Joey Laleggia. This has the best chance to be a depth gem along the lines of Gernat and Rieder. Corey Pronman’s take: He’s a good skater with a great offensive mind who would be a nice shot in the dark pick in the mid-rounds due to his notable offensive upside. He flashes high-end hockey sense with his quick game processing and he’s really effective moving the puck out of his own end and controlling the blue line on the power play.NHLE 82, 9-21-30.
  7. #153 overall: R John McCarron. The third straight 1992-born player, he’s a huge winger (6.03, 215) with plenty of toughness and a mean streak. McCarron fits the Coke Machine label perfectly. NHLE 82, 6-12-18.

NHLE’S over the past 2 drafts (draft seasons)

FORWARDS

  1. R Nail Yakupov 18-22-40
  2. C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 11-27-38
  3. C Tobias Rieder 9-10-19
  4. L Daniil Zharkov 11-7-18
  5. R John McCarron 6-12-18 (’92)
  6. F Jujhar Khaira 6-11-17
  7. L Mitch Moroz 6-3-9
  8. C Travis Ewanyk 5-4-9

DEFENSE

  1. Joey Laleggia 9-21-30 (’92)
  2. Erik Gustafsson 5-6-11 (’92)
  3. David Musil 2-8-10
  4. Dillon Simpson 2-7-9
  5. Oscar Klefbom 3-3-6

SUMMARY

  • The highlight of this draft is Nail Yakupov. Winning the lottery allowed the Oilers to draft the best player available and gives the club a ridiculous cluster of talent up front.
  • The pick at 32 was somewhat disappointing. The players we talked about this morning were available at that number. My picks were Pontus Aberg, Dalton Thrower and Matt Finn–you may have had other names.
  • I was initially unimpressed with the Khaira pick but after reading more he’s at least worthy of being “in the range” of his selection. The Oilers clearly spent the day drafting for need and I think this player gives them their best chance of getting that big forward who can play with real skill.
  • I like the Zharkov pick. In a draft filled with flags and frayed corners, I think the player covers the number.
  • The three 20 year olds are interesting but their window of opportunity is limited.
  • Laleggia’s numbers are impressive and I’ll spend a little time over the next few days having a longer look. Could he come out right away?
  • We don’t know enough about Gustafsson to make the call.
  • I have no quarrel with the last pick, he’s a lottery ticket and hell maybe it cashes.

I think Oiler fans would have felt a lot better about this draft if the club had drafted (say) Matt Finn at 32. I think the initial shock of the Moroz selection may have clouded our judgement of the rest of the group and suspect we’ll find some things to like about Khaira, Zharkov and Laleggia in the coming days.

It’s also true that Moroz is a “trending” prospect. Kirk Luedeke from Redline report tweeted me this evening with the following:

  • Luedeke: if his emerging skill set legit, with his toughness, Oil would have missed boat. We had Sutter higher, yes. But we also should have had Moroz higher, too. Not a bad pick- folks questioned Lucic at 50 in 06.

I think the Oilers probably wanted to trade into round 1 and grab Samuelsson, and when that wasn’t available checked down to their next Coke Machine. It might have been Sutter, but it was Moroz. Might be something about inside knowledge or maybe they saw his progress October to May and felt he was the better man.

In an interview posted on Oilers Nation this afternoon, Stu MacGregor tells Jason Gregor about Moroz and why the club selected him.

  • “You always have to step up if there was a player you like. We liked him, we followed him and his developmental curve is on the way up. He provides some toughness, but not just toughness, he’s a good hockey player. He takes the puck to the net real hard and he shows a little bit of touch around the net. He’s only played one year of junior and I think he’s got an opportunity, with continuous development and drive, to be a good player for us.”

Finally, a note on the scouting staff and Stu MacGregor. I don’t think their draft was a strong one, as they clearly went after “need” as opposed to “best player available.” Although the overall quality of the draft was not strong, the pick at #32 meant they were passing on too much talent by taking Moroz. The scouting staff better be right, or this pick will be remembered for a long time.

This has a chance to be a “Nail and little else” draft. The Moroz pick looms large.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

122 Responses to "HARVEST MOON"

  1. SpotTheLoon says:

    It was an interesting weekend. First off, I am thankful the Oilers took Yak with the first overall pick. The rising din from supposed insiders indicating that the team would take Murray was unsettling. I’m not sure if it was a matter of too many talking heads not having enough to really talk about and then speculating or whether there was truth to it all. In any event, it will be interesting to watch the first episode of Oil Change in the fall for some additional clarification.

    I think the Moroz pick was, as you say, based on organizational need and swinging for the fence. The chances of him turning into the next Lucic are not favourable. I would hope that the team continues to draft the best available players in the future. Turn over is an inevitable part of the NHL in a cap world. To change approaches at this point spells trouble in my opinion.

    Like you, LT, I have been a long suffering fan and I am hoping that the team starts to move up now. There are still needs to address. But I am at the point where I can’t bleed for the team every night anymore. Hope only gets you so far. Let’s hope that this is the start of something memorable.

    As a post script, I wanted to pass along a huge thank you for all that you do and the coverage that you have provided leading up to the draft and during the proceedings itself. Without you, my ulcer would have been cured long ago. :-)

  2. Nail and Nuge says:

    Perfect synopsis Alan. Really enjoyed the way you put that together. I agree that 2012 draft was Yakupov and trying to find Lucic vs. 2.0.

    Maybe the reason they didn’t take Finn was because of the number of similar D men in the system. With the lack of forward prospects, I would have loved for them to stock the cupboard with more than Zharkov.

  3. sliderule says:

    I have been critical of of oilers scouting staff but I am not as critical of Moroz draft as you LT.

    The thing I like about him is his skating.You don’t see guys that are truly tough with his wheels.

    The tweet by Tencer that oiler management overruled the scouts on Yak vs Murray jibes with what I have heard previously.

  4. Lowetide says:

    Sliderule: I spoke to Corey Graham, Kent Simpson and Jason Gregor today and all three felt the Oilers had drafted a trending player. As a fan, I’m hopeful that is the case and respect that the scouting staff feels they have captured a player of real value.

    Based on what we knew–his offense, the draft projection (BM had him 56 or so)–it was not a value pick. Perhaps if we had TOI then we could make a better call.

    Either way, I think Stu MacGregor and his staff have had better draft days, and don’t see a Gernat or Rieder beyond the 20 year old from Denver (and he’s 20).

  5. Traktor says:

    Moroz wouldn’t have been my first choice but I don’t discount the fact that Moroz could end up a better player than Finn or Aberg ect.

    I don’t think he would’ve lasted until the 3rd round either.

    Some of the players Edmonton passed over might have a better % of playing in the NHL but a lot of them are the vanilla type of players than can be found every UFA period and lot of those 2nd rounders will not even end up as good as Omark and we couldn’t even peddle Omark for a 5th round pick.

    Guys that can crash and bang and skate with skilled players don’t great traded very often and don’t make it to UFA often either.

    If you are disappointed with Tambellini IMO it should be because Gagner and Hemsky are still on the team and we haven’t improved our D.

  6. Lowetide says:

    I think an opportunity was missed. That’s different than disliking Moroz, he played well in the post-season. However, I don’t think it is reasonable to argue that it was good value at 32. McKenzie had him #56 and as Traktor says maybe he wouldn’t have lasted until #40.

    Fine. You’re still sitting there with Finn

    http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=9830

  7. Lowetide says:

    Put another way: I think Moroz’ outer marker is a Ben Eager. Hey, Ben Eager is an NHL player, and he went in the first round. But I’d rather sign Ben Eager as a free agent than spend a pick on him with Aberg and Finn still out there.

  8. Deeg says:

    LT, as per your day 2 post, do you think that even Brian Hart or Lukas Sutter would have been a better pick of a forward with some physicality/skill? Is there a considerable drop off there?

    It’ll be interesting to track Moroz’s development with the Oil Kings – this reach pick sounds contingent on considerable improvement next year with them, and it sounds like he may get a chance with more minutes and opportunities on special teams. I forget where I read it or heard it but it sounds like there’s a chance he moves up into their top 6 next year? Or are there not enough players graduating to pro?

    Someone mentioned Kyle Clifford in the last thread… if Lucic is the moon, perhaps a Clifford comp for Moroz’s development is a more reasonable hope.

    Who would have folks chosen in the second round instead?

  9. Smarmy says:

    Overager picks are interesting. I wonder if the plan is to get them in AHL and see if they pay out they’re that much closer to playing with the fab four.

    It makes sense to have big, mean, miserable to play against bottom sixers because this top six is gonna score plenty.

  10. Lowetide says:

    Deeg: I would have taken Sutter ahead of Moroz but that’s about it. Again, I have zero problem with Moroz, it’s WHERE he was taken. The skill still on the board made it an opportunity missed.

  11. Downright Fierce says:

    For one thing, if Moroz is your guy, why not take the highest ranked slider (Collberg, but Finn or Aberg should have worked too) & deal with whoever ends up taking Moroz? If they don’t want the player you selected, push it through another way with later picks and/or lower-end prospects. If you do it right, you get Moroz & another piece back. Worst deal is a slight overpay for Moroz. No deal? Well fuck someone’s gotta have a PF they’d deal for a near-first round talent.

    I guess we’re supposed to believe the Org’s proximity to Moroz has gleaned the Lucic strand in his genome. And if it plays out that way: fan-fucking-tastic. I still see the team essentially passing up a way to turn less into more.

    Asset Management: An Opportunity Missed — The Steve “Toonces” Tambellini story.

    (sour grapes aside: a fun, engaging draft despite the shallow pool; excited as ever — now how ’bout a coach?)

  12. Traktor says:

    I don’t see the Eager comparison at all.

    I think Moroz’s ceiling is poor mans David Clarkson.

    David Clarkson at 18 years old (OHL) 54 17 11 28 122

    David Clarkson at 27 years old 80 30 16 46 138

  13. Lowetide says:

    Traktor: Interesting. Kirk Luedeke apparently agrees with you.

  14. asiaoil says:

    I don’t believe for a minute that the scouts thought Murray was a #1 pick – but if they did – then mgmt was right to over rule that nonsense. The MSM will say whatever to justify their complete miss on what happened.

    My take was that mgmt spent (wasted) an entire month trying to convince CBJ that they would not take the clear #1 player in this draft. Hard for anyone to take that bluff seriously when what you propose is clearly false or stupid – and CBJ would have ran up to the podium to take Yak if we had been so clueless as to take Murray. How about spending your time trying to trade for a dman like a couple of other teams seemed to be able to manage?

    I’m sure they tried to trade up to take Samuelsson – but contrary to the BS out there about how tight-lipped this mgmt team is – EVERYONE knew they wanted Samuelsson and that likely jacked up the price to move up so much it became prohibitive.

    As for Moroz – after they they lost Samuelsson through their own stupidity I’m betting they panicked and overpaid for a much lesser player. Finn was clearly a good option, Sutter would have fit the bill as he’s abrasive and a center, and de Guiseppe was still on the boards. Most 2nd round picks amount to nothing – but the odds are higher here than later on – so making the smart pick actually works over time. But if you consistently try to draw into a straight flush on the river card you will lose 99 times out 100. The Moroz pick was almost like another 1st rounder (our chief scout’s words) and was an insane waste. Smart picking in the early 2nd round will get you a great player once or twice every ten years – but picks like Moroz and the other coke machines get you nothing as has been proven over and over for the last 10 years. Epic fail.

    So they wasted a month trying to convince CBJ to trade up when obviously we were either dumb or bluffing. No established dmen was obtained through trade of assets or a draft pick (like the 2nd rounder we just wasted). Flapped their gums about how in love they were with Samuelsson which likely cost them the player – and then to top it off they make a very poor bet on an asset in the early 2nd round when far better options were available. Total fail after Yak unless they get fantastically lucky – but even then – counting on luck is not what good mgmt is all about. Teams like BOS, NAS and DET must laugh their asses off at these bumbling fools over drinks after the draft.

  15. Bos8 says:

    Let’s review

    The Oilers are still the team they were, a whole bunch of random, small, pieces. Where is the team concept? This mantra of BP available is exactly that, something that sounds good and doesn’t pass the reality check. Go ahead, put together two offensive lines, without forcing.

    It’s like having second rate QBs and drafting RBS. Hey, they were the best players available. First they sign Hemsky and now they draft Yakupov. Marching lock step into nowhere.

    A whole bunch of talent but small, more small, more injury prone, more Horcoff on the PP because there is no one to take a draw.

    Yakupov was great until he got injured. Well guess what, people. He’ll be great until he gets injured. A telling quote was Larionov “The Oilers don’t talk to me and I don’t talk to the Oilers”.

    The best center in the draft, even with the freak injury, and they don’t talk to him. Yep, any year now Gagner is going to turn into something.

    The scouts wanted Murray and management stepped in. First you hire experts and then do your own thing.

    Ya can’t fix stupid.

  16. Maverick says:

    Not a bad weekend all and all, could have been a heck of a lot worse if they hadn’t drafted Yakupov.

    Day #2 definitely was odd in some of the choices but tells the tale of how shallow this year’s draft really was. Plus some higher rated players really fell, Nick Ebert was once a hopefully top 10 two years ago and now was the last player chosen 211 overall. Scouting is a difficult job it is more like an art than a science. How many of the kids chosen today will make the show? 15 – 20 %?

    The Moroz pick might have been early but missing out on Samuelsson I think they panic and wanted to get at least one of the two of them. If we are thinking Boys on the Bus then Moroz=Mike Krushelnyski?

    I agree with LT about this not being the scouting staffs best draft, lots of question marks, lots of long shots. Moroz and Khaira are the “Lucic” maybes, Zharkov’s skills are similiar to Miroslav Satan, the two defensemen are puck movers, and the last guy is the last guy picked.

    Now the fun is over for much of us, and it is the time when the rubber meets the road and Tambellini to make the current roster better, any thoughts going forward? Busy July 1st again? Will Tambellini be able improve the roster enough to not finish in the lottery again?

  17. Bar_Qu says:

    I spent a lovely few days in Kelowna with my wife, so the whole draft was bit of background noise that I paid attention to, from time to time.

    With that said, I think the D-heavy prospect list skewed the vision of what the Oilers were drafting (draft for need) and caused them to over-value some guys. Thus Moroz. Plus the overagers signals a desire to win sooner rather than later, imo.

    At the same time, meh, who cares. This draft class had its gems and maybe the Oilers missed some, but they clearly felt they got the guys they wanted. What is now important is the moves which occur in the next 10 days.

    1. Sign Yakupov to ELC

    2. Trade for or sign D who can play top two pairing or higher

    3. Get that elusive vet to shore up the bottom six (I still stand by signing Stempniak)

    Without a good few days coming up (hi J. Schultz, welcome to the team!) this draft, whether it was quality or not, is unimportant.

  18. DSF says:

    The first 10 picks in the second round historically have a 50-50 chance of playing in the NHL.

    If you’re playing those odds, you should be looking at players you believe can most easily realize their potential.

    Given the players still left on the board, Matt Finn was the right pick since he had fallen from the low 20′s in the first round basically due to the glut of defensemen already taken.

    I’d wager Finn becomes an NHL player long before any of the Oilers current prospect D.

  19. Bar_Qu says:

    DSF,

    How do I take you up on that wager? Before Klefbom, Marincin, Gernat or Teubert? (or are you re-defining prospect now?)

  20. Lowetide says:

    Bar_Qu: don’t do it. There are more bets, half bets, off track bets, implied bets, threatened bets, floor bets and dickie betts with DSF every month I should be rich just on the house cut.

  21. Woodguy says:

    The org has lots of D prospects and few F prospects not playing in the NHL.

    I’m glad the addressed the imbalance.

    Moroz seems to be a reach, 32 is a nice spot to grab someone who slipped, but the marching orders seemed to be 6’2″ or bust.

    It will be years before we know if it will pan out.

    Hopefully Moroz gets top 6 time and PP time.

    If he plays with Lazar maybe he’ll score 40 next year and the pick will be genius. :)

  22. Rondo says:

    Reading other OIler blogs, fans think it is so easy to move down in the draft w/o giving up much. Maybe the Oilers did try a few moves who knows. With 3 teams going after Samuelson I wonder what they would give up?

    Fans are so sure the player the Oilers didn’t pick will be a star. Most scouts would wish it was that easy.

    Oilers are probably a lottery pick next year really depends on goaltending. This is a work in progress you can’t fill all your needs in 1 draft.

  23. Bar_Qu says:

    Lowetide,

    LOL.

    I bow in deference to your wisdom, sir.

  24. jfry says:

    we got the best player of any transaction in the last week of movement, by just sitting on our hands and not screwing it up. success.

    i’m fine with the rest of the draft. i’d guess that the mandate was significantly different than the past coue of years. in previous years we were trying to build up our prospect list and create winning environments for them…and as a result we’ve signed an insane amount of our draftees.

    i think the agenda this draft was different…take flyers on guys that fill specific org needs. namely truculence. we have depth coming on d, we have elite top 6 material, so they focused all their effort on the bottom six (where we have very few prospects that fit that “ideal” mold). i’m dissapointed we didn’t take another goalie late.

    i also, don’t think they’re looking for the next lucic. the player they’re looking for and drafted for will very rarely lay a top 6 role. we can hate that they drafted this way, but i think my thesis holds.

    if we’re saying about the dmen coming up that, “one of these guys has gotta pan out,” then i thin the org is thinking the same way about these “coke machines.” In a limited draft year, i’m fine with this plan — hopefully next year they will believe that all development holes are filled and we see something much closer to the grid, like mtl this year.

    i really would have liked collberg though. i saw that kid great. also, thank god we’re not calgary right now.

  25. Vince says:

    I’m Looking forward to reviewing these last few drafts together a few years down the road. If this draft yields Yakupov +2 or + 3 200 game players and the others do not. Does the oilogosphere abandon the #’s approach? Or elevate MacGregor form magnificent to godlike?

  26. Lowetide says:

    Vince:
    I’m Looking forward to reviewing these last few drafts together a few years down the road. If this draft yields Yakupov +2 or + 3 200 game players and the others do not. Does the oilogosphere abandon the #’s approach? Or elevate MacGregor form magnificent to godlike?

    I had to hold the line on MBS earlier today, he was being downgraded to ‘some bastard we know’ in the Cornell guy’s thread.

  27. DSF says:

    # 32
    Mitch Moroz – LW – Edmonton Oil Kings
    6’2″ 208
    16G 25P
    131PIM

    #57
    Alexander Mallet – C – Rimouski Oceanic
    6’1′ 195
    34G 81P
    132PIM

    Redline Report on Mallet:

    “Late-blooming 1992-born forward is a powerful skater who hits like a truck and is one of the most feared fighters in the Q. Plays a north-south game and likes to take the puck straight to the net, where he cashes a lot of garbage goals on rebounds and tips. Relentless forechecker brings it every night in terms of compete level and physicality, and really asserts himself in the corners. Lacks top-six finesse but understands how to be a complementary player. Was team’s enforcer until quadrupling his point total this year. Can both agitate and score, and was a terrific pressure performer in the playoffs. Projects as a power forward who will do the dirty work and can chip in 12-15 goals.”

    Oops

  28. Lowetide says:

    Moroz is a ’94. Geez DSF your fog is slipping.

  29. Dave Casselman says:

    It seems to me that this had to be a management draft. The scouts had their mandate: Find a Looch, find size, grit, attitude, and the ability to make and receive a tape to tape pass. So the scouts did and picks 2, 3a, 3b, and 6 are the result.

    I like it for a variety of reasons. Clearly management must be satisfied they can fix what ails the club through a combination of existing D prospects coupled with a high degree of confidence they can add obvious defensive needs through either trade or free agency. IF they’re right the club will be fighting for a playoff spot come the new year. And if they’re right, they’ll have done it the best way possible – it’s always more fun to cheer for ‘our,’ guys, guys that were with the organization from the beginning.

    So, bottom line likely occurs next spring and summer.. One year from now it’ll be Steve’s Waterloo, or, unlikely as it may sound, it’ll be ‘all hail Steve,’ time. In the immortal words of LT, ‘ we wait.’

  30. DSF says:

    Lowetide:
    Moroz is a ’94. Geez DSF your fog is slipping.

    So, you draft the younger player…hope one day he turns into the older player and wait a couple of seasons to see if that bet pays off.

    Yeah, that makes sense.

    Jeebus.

    BTW…Mallet had 11G and 26P in 22 playoff games.

    Looks like he might be ready to go a tad sooner than Moroz who had 4G and 8P in 20 playoff games.

  31. Lowetide says:

    DSF: Moroz has time to develop. Why don’t we revisit your crazy math 2 years from now, Bad Will Hunting?

  32. LMHF#1 says:

    Your comments on Moroz are pretty diplomatic LT. It was an inappropriate pick Moroz turns out or not. They could have had he and a Finn or other possibly nhl quality defenceman (or forward or goalie for that matter). This was a silly and unnecessary move.

  33. nathan says:

    Finn vs. Moroz is a different call, not a horrible call or a panicked call. Let’s hope they were right.

    To put this in perspective McKenzie’s scout consensus had Moroz 20 spots behind Samuelsson. And both were rising in part due to the extra exposure of the Oil King’s deep run. 2/3 of a round apart on MacKenzie’s list. So if Henrik didn’t make it to the 2nd, Moroz wasn’t going to make it to the 3rd.

  34. Lowetide says:

    LMHF#1:
    Your comments on Moroz are pretty diplomatic LT. It was an inappropriate pick Moroz turns out or not. They could have had he and a Finn or other possibly nhl quality defenceman (or forward or goalie for that matter). This was a silly and unnecessary move.

    Well I had stronger wording and then Kirk Luedeke gave me his opinion. Hey, I’m all over Finn but if they’re going to go chasing these coke machines let’s hope they got a good one.

  35. Captain Obvious says:

    It’s funny. The Oilers only made one big mistake (and only the truly deluded think that taking Moroz wasn’t a mistake) but it changes the whole complexion of a draft.

    Look at Montreal’s draft:

    3 3 MTL ALEX GALCHENYUK C USA 6′ 0″ 194 OHL SARNIA
    2 3 33 MTL SEBASTIAN COLLBERG RW SWE 5′ 11″ 180 SWEDEN FROLUNDA
    2 21 51 MTL DALTON THROWER D CAN 5′ 11″ 200 WHL SASKATOON
    3 3 64 MTL TIM BOZON LW USA 6′ 0″ 183 WHL KAMLOOPS
    4 3 94 MTL BRADY VAIL C USA 6′ 0″ 195 OHL WINDSOR
    5 1 122 MTL CHARLES HUDON LW CAN 5′ 10″ 170 QMJHL CHICOUTIMI
    6 3 154 MTL ERIK NYSTROM LW SWE 5′ 11″ 176 SWE-JR. MODO JR.

    The consensus seems to be developing that Montreal did very well for themselves. Well, if that is apparent right now why wasn’t it apparent when the teams were drafting. Switch out Moroz for Finn or Aberg or Thrower or Collberg and the Oilers are big winners.

    Instead they took a fighter. This is really an ideological battle. Some people think fighting is an important part in winning hockey games. These people are wrong. It’s that simple.

    Now, some perspective is in order, we could be fans of the Flames or the Jets.

  36. DSF says:

    Lowetide:
    DSF: Moroz has time to develop. Why don’t we revisit your crazy math 2 years from now, Bad Will Hunting?

    Do you reasonably expect Moroz will become more than a PPG player in the WHL?

    If not, why make that bet?

  37. Woodguy says:

    DSF:
    # 32
    Mitch Moroz – LW – Edmonton Oil Kings
    6’2″ 208
    16G 25P
    131PIM

    #57
    Alexander Mallet – C – Rimouski Oceanic
    6’1′195
    34G 81P
    132PIM

    Redline Report on Mallet:

    “Late-blooming 1992-born forward is a powerful skater who hits like a truck and is one of the most feared fighters in the Q. Plays a north-south game and likes to take the puck straight to the net, where he cashes a lot of garbage goals on rebounds and tips. Relentless forechecker brings it every night in terms of compete level and physicality, and really asserts himself in the corners. Lacks top-six finesse but understands how to be a complementary player. Was team’s enforcer until quadrupling his point total this year. Can both agitate and score, and was a terrific pressure performer in the playoffs. Projects as a power forward who will do the dirty work and can chip in 12-15 goals.”

    Oops

    That’s the 2nd time today you’ve compared Moroz’s 17 year old year to someone’s 19 year old year.

    You really don’t need to do that to make the pick look poor.

    It does it by itself.

  38. Jon K says:

    Re Moroz: Obviously the Oilers feel that there is potential for this player to improve with experience and perhaps a greater role next year. I feel like LT’s perspective on the pick is eminently reasonable. Accordingly, we wait, as we always do when these young men are drafted. DSF and others should perhaps hold off a few years before tooting their own horn. Given DSF’s history around here that unfortunately seems unlikely.

    Re Khaira: I’m intrigued by this pick. He’s apparently on the upswing and RLR likes him. Hopefully we see some good arrows next year. The good: He’s very young for this draft class and good research by the Oilers suggests he’ll keep growing. The good, part two: Edmonton will look like Paris compared to Prince George and Surrey. ;)

  39. ashley says:

    I haven’t seen him play, but the description of Moroz’ game doesn’t sound like a fighter. More like an agitator, but perhaps some of the posters on here who have seen him can comment.

    They were probably looking for more Marchand than Lucic. A Steve Ott or Dorsett or Avery (without all the baggage).

    I agree that Steve Ott agitator types that can also skate, play defense and get an occasional goal are really hard to come by, and not usually available by trade or UFA.

    They thought they found one in Ben Eager, but he fancies himself as more of a goal scorer than an agitator it seems.

  40. HeavySig says:

    DSF,

    I am not sold on Moroz at all, but Mallet is just another overaged Coke Machine. Using a Canuck pick for your example won’t help with you win over those who think you are a Canuck fan obsessed with trolling here…not me, of course.

    Of course Mr. Mallet has been passed over in a couple of drafts, so comparisons should start at his draft year…wait, he only got 19 points that year. How about the following season? 19 points again? Pretty weak. I would hate to see what rickibear would do with those numbers.

    So now as an overager he dominated kids less developed than him using his muscle, something that will mean little to the NHL sized defenders. C’mon, the Oiler second round pick is an easy target, you should be able to find better ammo than that.

  41. CrazyCoach says:

    Prince George is not that far off the beaten path, and believe it or not we have a WHL team and a BCHL team. For those of you who are not aware, the BCHL is considered one of the top junior A leagues in the country.

    Saw this kid play this year and liked what I saw. A couple years playing college hockey will do him good. My impression is that he is correct on his foot speed, which needs work. Wide track skater with a powerful stride and utilizes his size well. Wins the majority of battles on the boards. Plays very intense and could be considered tough on a team that many consider soft. Was part of a combo that singlehandedly turned around a horrible team.

    Former assistant coach of mine is an assistant with the Kings and said he was surprised at the kids intelligence and ability to learn. Has tons of mental toughness and playing for the Kings is not easy as your nearest opponent is a seven hour bus ride away, and for hockey players this city often feels like the outer rim.

    He’s hardly what I would call a coke machine. High water mark would be Dave Bolland. Low water mark would be Hordichuk.

  42. HeavySig says:

    Woodguy: That’s the 2nd time today you’ve compared Moroz’s 17 year old year to someone’s 19 year old year.

    You really don’t need to do that to make the pick look poor.

    It does it by itself.

    Wow, get on my wavelength or what…except I wasted time looking up Mallets records to see how bad they really were.

  43. HeavySig says:

    CrazyCoach,

    This kid is starting to intrigue me the more I hear about him. He should be around for the prospect camp, I hope.

  44. TheOtherJohn says:

    Ashley

    Moroz is, at a junior level, what we all hoped Eager would be at the NHL level. A big body who is hard to play against and scores the odd goal.I think he may work out as a pick because if he makes it, unlike Eager, he will know why he he made it. Definitely a stretch at #32 but if he is a Cal Clutterbuck that will fight, that’s a pretty decent player

    Will likely be measured against subsequent skilled picks selected by others that may play 300 NHL games

  45. spoiler says:

    LMHF#1:
    Your comments on Moroz are pretty diplomatic LT. It was an inappropriate pick Moroz turns out or not. They could have had he and a Finn or other possibly nhl quality defenceman (or forward or goalie for that matter). This was a silly and unnecessary move.

    So they could have had a possibly NHL quality defenseman or goalie, both of which we have plenty of, but instead took a possibly NHL quality power winger? The shame.

    .
    .
    .

    Teams draft by need after the upper half of the first. They have to. They can’t take 4 defenseman in the first four rounds for four years in a row, if that’s the BPA. They can’t just take offensive defensemen when they do take defenseman. They have to use a far more balanced approach. And one can swing for the fences for offense with later picks.

    It takes a lot of different skills to score goals and win hockey games. Moroz offers a skillset we don’t have, and so we took him rather than not addressing this with as strong a chance for yet another year. So we picked him a little ahead of where he ranked. Even Kevin Holland advocates doing this. Do you all really think Samuelsson or Wilson or Matteau would have been picked before the two ‘Bergs if teams drafted sheerly on talent alone?

    Reports from Gregor indicate Moroz wouldn’t have lasted 10 picks if not less. This is not even a reach at this point in the draft.

    He’s a later birthday, his game has taken a nice step forward this year and the arrows are pointing in the right direction. Different scouts have offered good reviews as to his upside. The amount of teeth-gnashing over this dice roll astonishes me. They decided on one type of bottom 6 player with a style of play that projects well for NHL employment and that they don’t have, over other bottom 6ers and a couple of boom-bust 2nd liners. Lah dee freakin dah.

    I personally thank the Hockey Gords this management group is smart enough to assemble a toolkit with lots of different kinds of tools in it. Gives me hope for other areas of need.

    Most players don’t have all the tools. So you have to find combinations of players that do.

  46. Traktor says:

    I might find it interesting if the 92 that DSF is talking about was drafted by Detroit.

    But he was drafted by Gillis.

    Probably not much there.

  47. FPB94 says:

    Spoiler; Again. Please find me someone decent with his scoring.

    Thing he’s not even a decent power forward in the WHL. He’s got lots of steps to climb.

    If you draft a mountain and he’s sligtly under PPG, or not scoring in a man’s league, it makes sense over a smaller PPG kid. But now he’s just a scrub in the Junior, don’t expect him to become a good NHL’er. That just doesn’t happen.

    The kid projects to be at best someone who could be traded for a 5th pick. It makes no sense to waste a 2nd on that.

    Take your 2nd and trade it for a young one who’s more uphill than him.

    With Zharkov and Jhaira you at least have a chance they’l have 2nd line potential in the NHL.

  48. CrazyCoach says:

    Heavysig, he might surprise there to. He sort of materialized here at training camp and stuck around here. Not impressive and a mere 5’5″ when he got here. My take on the kid is that he wasn’t the biggest kid growing up, so he had to develop the tenacity and being a minority made him want to prove himself even more.

    Might be a sleeper.

  49. LMHF#1 says:

    They could have had one of the remaining identified quality players (Finn and the Swedish goalie appear to be the examples) AND Moroz. That’s what is appalling. I don’t agree with the Moroz pick period, but if you must take a guy who will likely never have the offence to contribute at an NHL level, then take him later.

    I’m also still bitter about not getting Samuelsson, but that’s for another day.

  50. Traktor says:

    2011

    Vancouver’s 1st rounder
    Jensen 57 25 33 58

    Edmonton’s 4th rounder
    Rieder 60 42 42 84

    Oops.

  51. jzed says:

    Let me apologize to crazycoach. We of the frozen tundra know where PG is and that good hockey is played there. It is as RLR said, the kid was under scouted by the same type of idiots that think the Nuge is the 4th or 5th best rookie of the past season. Anything west of the center of the universe doesn’t exist.

  52. ashley says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    Clutterbuck is another great example. How do you get a guy like that?

    Steve Downie cost Colorado a second pairing defenceman last year. Outside of that trade, these players don’t seem to move very much. They don’t make much money so they are easy to extend, yet they play a valuable role. Perhaps this is what the Oilers are thinking with Moroz.

    Instead of taking a player who has been scoring 40 goals a year in every league he has been in since he was 4 years old, but only has an outside chance of making the NHL unless he changes his game from finesse to grit, they choose a player who is already gritty.

    If he can skate and play defence, he might make the 4th line some day and won’t have to reinvent himself to get there.

    I’m not defending the reach, but I can sort of see the line of thinking.

  53. Doug McLachlan says:

    I understand thinking of Moroz as a bottom 6. I wonder if the real hope isn’t someone who can ride shotgun with the other kids moving forward. I would think that the Oil Kings might have someone who he could test drive that role for next year.

  54. FPB94 says:

    ashley,

    Ashley: Clutterbuck and Downie both scored 70 points in their junior year. They were talented guys with some grit. They were 1st liners in junior. Not 3rd or 4th.

    They just dropped down because they entered a better pool of hockey player. Not the other way around.

    Guys don’t (Except 1-2 guys a decade) invent offense. They already had it in Junior.

  55. spoiler says:

    FPB94:
    Spoiler; Again. Please find me someone decent with his scoring.

    Thing he’s not even a decent power forward in the WHL. He’s got lots of steps to climb.

    If you draft a mountain and he’s sligtly under PPG, or not scoring in a man’s league, it makes sense over a smaller PPG kid. But now he’s just a scrub in the Junior, don’t expect him to become a good NHL’er. That just doesn’t happen.

    The kid projects to be at best someone who could be traded for a 5th pick. It makes no sense to wastea 2nd on that.

    Takeyour 2nd and trade it for a young one who’s more uphill than him.

    You mean like Lucic?

    “That just doesn’t happen.”

    That gave me a good chuckle.

    Have you seen Moroz play? Even on television?

    Do you have any context for his numbers, whatsoever?

    Do you really believe there is only one rule for drafting players (and funnily one that doesn’t work for very long, and completely ignores context and skillsets)? Lol.

    Have you even addressed any of the issues I’ve raised? Have you addressed any of the praise the scouts have given Moroz?

    Awfully narcissistic young people we have in here today, who believe they have the one and only truth. Almost religious-like in its fervour and its intolerance for other views.

    And as for the trade idea, lets all keep in mind that big players who can skate are more tradeable than fancy dan powderpuffs.

  56. FPB94 says:

    spoiler,

    I’ve said it all day. There’s only one exception in the decade I know of and it’s Lucic.

    Funny thing we’ve been going back and forth for 1 year know and the only guy you seem to know of is Lucic. It’s the only fucking guy people defending coke machines ever come up with.

    I don’t care what scouts say. Because they probably drafted a hundred and more of those guys in the decade and got 1 knight in shining armor out of it .

    When there’s a SINGLE GUY in a DECADE I think it’s pretty safe to say that 0,33 PPG F’s are a pretty low bet.

    I have the one and only truth? I’ve been asking you senseless to counter me with facts, (actual players who’ve made it) yet you keep dodging it. If you want to beat an arguement, you gotta bring some facts.

    In life you’re right, or you’re wrong. That is all.

  57. ashley says:

    FPB94:
    ashley,

    Ashley:Clutterbuck and Downie both scored 70 points in their junior year. They were talented guys with some grit. They were 1st liners in junior. Not 3rd or 4th.

    They just dropped down because they entered a better pool of hockey player. Not the other way around.

    Guys don’t (Except 1-2 guys a decade) invent offense. They already had it in Junior.

    Well I guess that’s sort of the question. Are junior boxcars a good marker for this player type? If they are not going to be asked to score in the big leagues, why use that to prognosticate?

    Maybe that is the disconnect between the amateur math types like us on this blog and the real scouts. They measure value in different ways. We only measure value with junior boxcars, height, and weight.

  58. Semenko and Troy says:

    Whatever happened to focusing on the ‘develop’ in ‘draft and develop’? I would much rather have the Oilers direct and mould a player like Moroz compared to picking up other teams’ cast-offs such as Eager, who turned a blind eye to Jared Boll as he was going after RNH. (Yes I know, of course it was the concussion).

    If Moroz develops into a Prust, and shows the foot soldier loyalty of a Kevin McLelland, I don’t think many people will be complaining we missed out on a Pontus Aberg.

  59. FPB94 says:

    ashley,

    Ashley: Well both Downie and Clutterbuck have such value. Cause they can actually play hockey. And being proficient in the offensive zone is usually a good indicator of that.

    Except some chosen ones, scoring from Junior to the NHL will always drop off. (Say 2-3 % or so will beat their Junior boxscore).

    Scoring and being tough does not indicate that you’l be succesful as that type in the NHL. (See Gilbert Brule). But not being able to score in Junior almost always damns a guy. They end up just not being skilled enough to follow (Like JFJ).

    Most guys who seem to develop offense on the late, usually score around 45 points minimum. ( On a full season). When you drop down to 0,5 PPG, it becomes extremely rare.

  60. FPB94 says:

    Semenko and Troy,

    Brandon Prust scored 55 points in his junior year.

    Good tough guys scored in Junior.

  61. spoiler says:

    FPB94:
    spoiler,

    I’ve said it all day. There’s only one exception in the decade I know of and it’s Lucic.

    Funny thing we’ve been going back and forth for 1 year know and the only guy you seem to know of is Lucic. It’s the only fucking guy people defending coke machines ever come up with.

    I don’t care what scouts say. Because they probably drafted a hundred and more of those guys in the decade and got 1 knight in shining armor out of it .

    When there’s a SINGLE GUY in a DECADE I think it’s pretty safe to say that 0,33 PPG F’s are a pretty low bet.

    I have the one and only truth? I’ve been asking you senseless to counter me with facts, (actual players who’ve made it) yet you keep dodging it. If you want to beat an arguement, you gotta bring some facts.

    In life you’re right, or you’re wrong. That is all.

    Dude you were the one who asked for ONE player. You were the one who said it NEVER happened.

    All I have been bringing are facts and expert sources.

    Sheesh. This is a 10-15 pick reach in a shite draft. Step away from the ledge.

    And if you think that last line is true, you have a lot of surprises ahead of you. I suggest a career in a religious field. Only the Sith believe in absolutes.

  62. FPB94 says:

    spoiler,

    I’m not pretending it’s obvious weither it’s true or not. But ultimately it is.

    I called Lucic an exception about 2490220 times today. ”Expert” is flawed. There’s no control on these guys, no association with said scout, no track record attached, no credentials.

    Usually in life you try to imitate things who are succesful. So if you see something fail 99/100, it would seem pretty silly to do it. I guess not in drafting coke machines.

    It’s not like i’m bashing a guy who has legitimate top 6 material in the Junior (Like Jhaira or Zharkov), I’m going after the guy because he can’t even play the top lines on his team. So it’s a lot of steps to climb. And so far, almost none have done it.

  63. speeds says:

    I’m also not a fan of the Moroz pick, but I’ll throw out another name, not a perfect comparable, but another guy with size who didn’t necessarily score a ton in his draft year, James Neal:

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=76997

    44 pts vs. 25pts from Moroz, but Neal only had 2 more goals than Moroz in his draft year. Neal was drafted 33rd OV, Moroz 32nd.

  64. spoiler says:

    From CP:

    – Edmonton’s Steve Tambellini had the first pick in the NHL draft Friday. And he liked what he added Saturday.

    “Today was a good day,” said the Oilers general manager.

    The Oilers picked up another offensive weapon in Russian winger Nail Yakupov to kick off the draft. The goal Saturday was to add some size that could complement the skill players already in the fold or system.

    “We talked about how do we get these people,” said Tambellini. “Once in a while you may make a trade to get some size that has the skill to play with your top six or nine — once in a while. But more often than not, nine out of 10, you have to draft these people and develop them.

    “So that was a major goal of ours coming into this draft and we think we accomplished that.”

    My interpretation:

    The three players in question are essentially one bet. The hope will be that one or two of this trio can make it to the NHL. It’s not really important which one. The Oilers know these are dice rolls but also know they can really use a player like this, so are rolling the dice three times to give themselves a shot at getting one.

    And for all we know, they might have had a guy like Zharkov ahead of Moroz, but took the players where they knew they could get them, à la Gernat.

    I’m sure the Oil are fully aware of the issues raised today, and have hedged their bet accordingly.

  65. FPB94 says:

    DiGiuseppe, Bussieres, Sissons, Nieves and Severson were all big guys with a better touch. All regular draftees too.

  66. Rondo says:

    How much complaining can you do, it is over move on.

  67. Doug McLachlan says:

    With Toronto dealing away Schenn, are they more likely to get Schultz?

  68. VOR says:

    I am actually old enough to remember that first Oilers NHL draft, as the Oilers wasted picks on a kid who’d played for like 7 teams in five years and managed to be 1-10-11 in 52 games his draft year, and a kid from the Canadian Olympic program. I mean the Canadian Olympic program, what were they thinking. It sort of taught me to wait and see what the kids become before commenting. However, I am going to go way out on a limb and say we may just have seen one of the Oilers’ best drafts ever. If nothing else it is now clear how MBS thinks.

    Super conservative first pick, saw him good second pick, river boat gambler after that.

    Schools out on whether or not that approach is serving the Oilers well or not but today it led to something we may well all talk about for years to come. The Oilers looked past seeing a kid bad, repeatedly, and took him anyway. They truly swung for the fences.

    I was just reading through the thread on Daniil Zharkov and it became apparent that most of you haven’t seen him play. Watching him play takes you back deep into the NHL’s past when scouts had never heard of ten tool players and didn’t give a shit if you were a chain smoking, alcoholic, coke head, serial killer if you could change the course of a game, a playoff series, or even a season with one play.

    Zharkov is that guy. He didn’t go higher because he doesn’t play defence, it isn’t clear he will ever learn how, and he has the annoying habit of not using the gifts a benevolent God gave him. Plus he is a flake, school of Penner and Anderson, funny, off the wall, and more than a little odd.

    So why do I think we caught the wave, and years from now, while we may still be talking about how stupid picking Moroz was it isn’t going to matter?

    Because Zharkov has some very unique skills. He hits like Niklas Kronwall, magically appearing from nowhere and destroying some unsuspecting player, he has a wrist shot off his wrong foot with a snap release that is lethal (insert player here), and he has a slap shot in the Sheldon Souray class. These tools are actually what drove him down the draft,. Or rather what he does with them. Mostly Zharkov goes to the crease to try to score forgetting he is already in possession of offensive weapons most players can only dream of, and instead dipsy doodling in traffic in tight (at which, by the way, he is pretty good.)

    Simply, he is an all world offensive talent that hits like a Mack truck. MBS surrounded him with the sleeper of the draft (Hey I’ve been to Prince George a number of times, it really isn’t that hard to get there), a wild card swedish D, and a smurf with a resume that screams Brian Rafalski. So instead of assuming the worst how about we assume the best and say we just saw one of the best Oilers drafts ever.

  69. Captain Obvious says:

    For context on Moroz’ offensive abilities. From Copper and Blue:

    “Moroz scored 16 goals in 66 games for .24 goals per game on the best team in the WHL. The next CHL player taken, Matt Finn, defenseman Matt Finn, scored 10 goals in 61 games. The next run of CHL forwards scored Lukas Sutter had 28 in 70 (.40), Mitchell Heard 29 in 57 (.51), Raphael Bussieres 21 in 56 (.375), Brock McGinn 12 in 33 (.36), Martin Frk 16 in 34 (.47), Mike Winther 32 in 71 (.45), and finally, Chris Tierney scored less. After that it’s back to Justin Kea in the middle of the third round to find a low-scoring player like Moroz.”

    Taking Moroz hoping he turns into a scorer is magical thinking. You might as well be doing a rain dance.

    Steve Downie played for the national junior team. I’ll be surprised if Moroz is invited to training camp. These comparisons are wishful thinking. Even if the Oilers are correct that they “needed” more size they still got size (and better players) with their next two picks.

    Honestly, does anyone here believe Moroz will play more games or score more goals than Frk? Anyone?

  70. spoiler says:

    speeds:
    I’m also not a fan of the Moroz pick, but I’ll throw out another name, not a perfect comparable, but another guy with size who didn’t necessarily score a ton in his draft year, James Neal:

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=76997

    44 pts vs. 25pts from Moroz, but Neal only had 2 more goals than Moroz in his draft year.Neal was drafted 33rd OV, Moroz 32nd.

    Chris Neil had 29 pts in 65 games in his draft-eligible season.

  71. Captain Obvious says:

    VOR,

    I agree with all of that. Which is why the Moroz pick is so puzzling/frustrating.

  72. spoiler says:

    VOR:
    I am actually old enough to remember that first Oilers NHL draft, as the Oilers wasted picks on a kid who’d played for like 7 teams in five years and managed to be 1-10-11 in 52 games his draft year, and a kid from the Canadian Olympic program. I mean the Canadian Olympic program, what were they thinking. It sort of taught me to wait and see what the kids become before commenting. However, I am going to go way out on a limb and say we may just have seen one of the Oilers’ best drafts ever. If nothing else it is now clear how MBS thinks.

    Super conservative first pick, saw him good second pick, river boat gambler after that.

    Schools out on whether or not that approach is serving the Oilers well or not but today it led to something we may well all talk about for years to come. The Oilers looked past seeing a kid bad, repeatedly, and took him anyway. They truly swung for the fences.

    I was just reading through the thread on Daniil Zharkov and it became apparent that most of you haven’t seen him play. Watching him play takes you back deep into the NHL’s past when scouts had never heard of ten tool players and didn’t give a shit if you were a chain smoking, alcoholic, coke head, serial killer if you could change the course of a game, a playoff series, or even a season with one play.

    Zharkov is that guy. He didn’t go higher because he doesn’t play defence, it isn’t clear he will ever learn how, and he has the annoying habit of not using the gifts a benevolent God gave him. Plus he is a flake, school of Penner and Anderson, funny, off the wall, and more than a little odd.

    So why do I think we caught the wave, and years from now, while we may still be talking about how stupid picking Moroz was it isn’t going to matter?

    Because Zharkov has some very unique skills. He hits like Niklas Kronwall, magically appearing from nowhere and destroying some unsuspecting player, he has a wrist shot off his wrong foot with a snap release that is lethal (insert player here), and he has a slap shot in the Sheldon Souray class. These tools are actually what drove him down the draft,. Or rather what he does with them. Mostly Zharkov goes to the crease to try to score forgetting he is already in possession of offensive weapons most players can only dream of, and instead dipsy doodling in traffic in tight (at which, by the way, he is pretty good.)

    Simply,he is an all world offensive talent that hits like a Mack truck. MBS surrounded him with the sleeper of the draft (Hey I’ve been to Prince George a number of times, it really isn’t that hard to get there), a wild card swedish D, and a smurf with a resume that screams Brian Rafalski. So instead of assuming the worst how about we assume the best and say we just saw one of the best Oilers drafts ever.

    Excellent post. I was very high on Zharkov before the draft. I had him higher than Moroz, although it was pretty evident they wouldn’t draft in that order. One of these three should make it.

  73. Captain Obvious says:

    spoiler,

    Chris Neil was drafted in the sixth round. Moreover, having Chris Neil as the best case scenario is pretty much a textbook case of a bad second round pick.

  74. Woodguy says:

    Speeds inspired me to try to find another Moroz comparable.

    Maybe Bryan Bickel is his upper marker:

    Bickel 6’4″ 223lbs taken 41st by CHI in 2004

    Draft year: 76gp 20g 16a 36pts 76PIMs.474pts/gm

    Best NHL year so far: 10/11

    78gp 17g 20a 37pts 40PIMS .474pts/gm

  75. Cactus says:

    spoiler,

    “:And if you think that last line is true, you have a lot of surprises ahead of you. I suggest a career in a religious field. Only the Sith believe in absolutes.”

    Quote of the night, and it isn’t even close!

  76. spoiler says:

    Travis Moen

    9-6-15 in 66 gms as an 18 yo.

  77. gd says:

    This seems like an historically bad draft. This has to be a record for overage picks. (Still can’t figure out why no one took a flyer on Blain). Klefbom would have been at worst 6th pick this year, Gernat and Reider would have been in the top 40. I believe those gems gave Stu the room to take a flyer on Moroz. If Finn ends up being a top 4 Dman he was.a miss. If Sutter turns out better than Moroz than Stu made a hometown bias mistake. Moroz does not need to be Lucic, he needs to be King to be a good pick. To me the mistake was not putting the deal together to StLouis to get Samuellsson at 25 if they felt Moroz was the only other option.

  78. PDO says:

    Lucic is clearly the outer-marker here, no?

    Unlikely as hell, but Lucic is also a guy who has consistently looked much better than he is because of the line he’s on.

    With 4-93-14-Yak floating around, we could very well have the luxury of having a guy playing this style and looking a whole lot better than he really is.

    It wasn’t a good pick, but given we already have Klefbom-Marincin-Gernat-Musil in the cupboard…

    … well, meh.

  79. spoiler says:

    Captain Obvious:
    spoiler,

    Chris Neil was drafted in the sixth round.Moreover, having Chris Neil as the best case scenario is pretty much a textbook case of a bad second round pick.

    You should probably try to pay attention to the conversation. FPB’s contention that only PPG Jr players make the NHL is what is being discussed. And the contention that no one with Moroz’ production ever has, other than Lucic.

    As for the general issue you raise, considering that was Neil’s 2nd draft eligible year and the useful career he’s had, he’d obviously go far higher in a re-draft. Your point doesn’t support any of your arguments, but rather confirms that these kind of players need to be looked at more seriously.

  80. Cactus says:

    Let me start by saying I really love reading and participating in the comment section of LT’s terrific blog. Some great characters, fantastic insight and spirited debate. This represents some of the best gifts of the internet.

    Unfortunately, this only appears to hold true when we’re talking about actual NHL players in actual NHL games.

    There seems to be something about the draft (and to a lesser extent, free agency and trading) that causes so many voices here to take total leave of their senses. When we’re looking at these 17-20 year olds, the pool of data and insight shrinks dramatically, yet the level of certainty remains shockingly consistent. People who are quick to mock others for trying to make a point with “pathetic boxcars” suddenly clutch at a point total like it’s gospel. No context is available and none is apparently needed to declare a particular pick to be the next Datsyuk or an unspeakable abomination. This is even more galling as we move past the top 15 or so picks, who at least have been heavily scouted and scrutinized from multiple angles.

    We KNOW very little about these prospects. We can only create marginally informed perspectives based upon very minimal information. We don’t even have TOI for heaven’s sake! Let’s continue to have good debates and opinions about these players, but please, stop making stark declarations about them. If reading boxcars made you smarter than the scouts, then the draft would be a purely numerical exercise. It’s not and a few people need to ask themselves: “Is it because the GMs are mostly idiots? Or is it because this is a lot harder than it looks?”

  81. Chris says:

    We got Yakopov which obviously is good.

    My difficulty with Moroz is this – the best predictor of future sucess is past sucess. Moroz was a 4th line talent on a good WHL team. That does not scream take me two picks outside the first round. He had all of 25 points in the WHL. By way of comparison Jordan Eberle was drafted ten places before Mitch Moroz and had three times that many points in his draft year.

    Players who score 25 points in the WHL and subsequently play in the NHL are called defensemen. Regretably Mitch Moroz is a forward. Based on his offensive output its unlikely Moroz will ever have anything resembling a productive NHL career. The Oilers squardered a very high second round pick on a guy whose career path is most likely to resemble Brad Winchester, (who back in the bad old days was selected three places after Moroz was today). Winchester as we shall recall washed out of Edmonton unmorned and had a career high of 21 points.

    Another comparable is JF Jacques another second rounder of a similar ilk. JF Jacques had a simlair level of production ot Moroz he had 33 points in the Q in his draft year. Least we forget JF Jacques set records for offensive futility by a forward. The man was clearly seeking a green jacket with his plus minus score and holds a career high of 7 points in a season.

    You may also recall another big man who was the coveted “power forward” type by the name of Brad Isbister. In his draft year he had all of thirty six points ands was a high third round selection. Brad Isbister is actually what borders on a sucess story for a coke machine. He had three seasons where he flirted with being a useful NHL player on the Islanders for three seasons where he had twenty two, seventeen and eighteen goals but for the remainder of his career across six teams he never broke 25 points.

    The reason everyone wishes they had a Lucic is that the man is a god damn fluke. Players generally do not go from being third or fourth line talents in a lesser league to being second line players in the NHL. It tends to work the other way. Ethan Moreau for example was a dominant junior player. This is why NHLE is always a fraction of one’s output at the junior level. Its a bigger harder league, in all likelihood statistically your going to be less not more effective.

    Moroz hasn’t played in any international tournaments that suggest that there is something his own team was missing in restricting him to 4th line minutes. Admittedly with some of the players playing in the KHL and SEL those can be useful indicators of their potential as otherwise we are judging 17 year old kids strictly on their performance vis a via 30 year old men. Moroz just couldn’t force his way into significant playing time on a good WHL team. This is not a good indicator. Its one thing for a player to be short on minutes on a really good SEL team but another when its a WHL club.

    The annoying part of the Moroz selection is he wasn’t even the best big forward available. If you were going to draft a large winger the fellow the jets drafted at 70 has a much better chance of having an NHL career. Komasachuck is six feet 185 and has scored 30 goals in the OHL which is essentially double Moroz’s offensive output.

    Again if you want a big winger you could have pick a Tim Bozon. He has already scored thirty six goals in the WHL. He’s 6’1. The Habs drafted him in the third round. He was capable of scoring nearly three times as many points as Mitch Moroz in the WHL this year.

    Martin Frk is six feet 200 llbs. The centre was hardly a pushover. He also scored 4 more points than Mitch Moroz while playing only half a season due to injury.

    This is just assuming we don’t look at guys under six feet talls because we want “size” and we only look at forwards.

    My difficulty with the Oilers or any team such as Calgary making their hilarious reach picks is that the draft isn’t in the 1970s anymore. There is not some kid playing in a barn outside Prague or or in Big Beaver Saskatchewan that no one has ever seen or heard of. There are numerous independent scouting services, Central Scouting and the medias reports such as Bob MacKenzie which essentially report team scouting consensus. When the teams think they know better than everyone else they are essentially fighting the wisdom of crowds.

    Drafting people like Moroz is essentially irrational. It represents the triumph of hope and dreams over logic. If a player is as good as you believe he is, why is there not hard evidence in the form of results to support it? That’s why we embrace players like Yakapov, they have all of the tools and the results that follow. Chasing after a Lucic is chasing a fluke. Its the sort of logic gamblers follow while feeding quarters into slot machines that are rigged to take their money “it has to pay off one of these times” despite the fact that every single time anything good coming from it remains statistically improbable.

    As an Oilers fan I do hope Moroz beats the overwhelming odds but I’ve seen the Oilers fall in love with this sort of player before. Generally speaking its a wasted pick. The upside is maybe we get Brad Isbister when he was semi-useful for a few years. Moroz essentially has to go super nova to replicate Lucic’s sucess. That is to be charitable very unlikely. Meanwhile the Oilers left forwards, let alone highly ranked defensemen on the table who have a much higher likelyhood of being useful NHL players.

    This team frustrates me.

  82. Cactus says:

    gd,

    Since someone earlier was complaining about too many overagers earlier, let’s actually give this some real numbers (a rare luxury when we’re talking about prospects):

    2012 Draft, All Players by Birth Year:

    1989: 1
    1991: 1
    1992: 20
    1993: 58
    1994: 131

    This was not a strong year.

  83. Lowetide says:

    PDO’s point is a very good one. The Oilers got pretty solid offensive seasons from people like Mike Krushelnyski, Pat Hughes, etc because of the quality of the forwards around them. Hell Semenko had a pretty good season.

  84. DBO says:

    Lots of heated discussion. On another note, from Mackinnon at the Sun:\

    NO TAKERS FOR OMARK: The Oilers dangled disgruntled winger Linus Omark all weekend, but there were no takers. They are also looking for a defenceman — making two calls to Chicago for Niklas Hjalmarsson — but there was no deal.

    Hjalmarsson is not a world beater, but would be in our top 4. Pair him with Shultz (younger if we sign him ) and that is a solid 2nd pair, allowing older shultz to play with Whitney as pairing 2b.

  85. DBO says:

    oh, and at least we aren’t Calgary. Thank God for that. End of discussion about draft, now time for Tambo to shine and make deals!! That always works out better.

  86. Vince says:

    Lowetide,

    True believers should hold the line on stu. You’ll look brilliant in if Moroz scores 30 in 2015. This time last year I bet my wife (a leafs fan) Luke Schenn would be traded b4 his contract was up… As rule I assume every site I comment on is a family site……. A bets a bet.

  87. PDO says:

    Lowetide:
    PDO’s point is a very good one. The Oilers got pretty solid offensive seasons from people like Mike Krushelnyski, Pat Hughes, etc because of the quality of the forwards around them. Hell Semenko had a pretty good season.

    Thanks LT, and it’s basically what I have in mind, even this season. We all saw Horcoff play reasonably well with 4+14; with the main reason being that he played defensively and made quick braekout passes to the kids and let them work up ice. Mucked it up a bit. No reason to believe he can’t do the same thing with Nail this year. We aren’t deep down the middle, but we’re not atrocious either… get some wingers with offensive flair and it will cover the deficiency of a guy like Horcoff.

    Down the road, say 2 years from now when the Hemsky contract expires, the top 6 is almost assuredly:

    Hall – XX – Yakupov
    XX – RNH – Eberle

    If you have an “OK” two-way C playing between the first and two and a big LW crashing and banging on the 2nd pairing… both lines are world beaters regardless.

  88. spoiler says:

    Lowetide:
    PDO’s point is a very good one. The Oilers got pretty solid offensive seasons from people like Mike Krushelnyski, Pat Hughes, etc because of the quality of the forwards around them. Hell Semenko had a pretty good season.

    From what I’ve read Moroz was moved up the Oil King line up because he created space for the skill guys to do their things. He’s got that later birthday and was improving as the year went. Who knows what happens if he gets 2nd line ice time next year.

    Couple of scouting reports I’ve read state that while Moroz doesn’t have a high upside, he has a better probablity of finding an NHL role than most of the prospects in his range.

    He could be nothing. Or, if he pans out, he could be very useful. God knows we can use a couple of hard to play against types on this team.

    Cactus,

    Cactus, I was speculating this morning that the over-agers may be a record, but those numbers are stunning. This was an awful draft-eligible class.

  89. VOR says:

    Cactus,

    I don’t fundamentally disagree with you. History teaches that draft outcomes are highly unpredictable and while teams seem to be getting better in the first round the later rounds do appear to be becoming more random walks. Thus at this point we know absolutely nothing about the future of these young men.

    My excitement about this particular draft is that the Oilers actually seem to have adopted a consistent strategy. Whether it works well or not is, as I said above, still undetermined and in fact impossible to know at this point. However, a pattern has emerged. Which may imply deliberate choice and thus thought. Never a bad thing in an organization.

    I feel like it is as fair to say this is the greatest Oilers draft ever as it is to drown in our collective tears. At the moment the cat is still in the box. Thus, any outcome remains theoretically possible. So lets assume the cat is alive.

    Chris,

    In the chaos that was this draft year, where the wisdom of the crowd is the average of the sum of an extremely wide range of positions, it means diddly. Moroz may not have been a reach pick for the Oilers. He was on other team’s radar at a later spot in the draft and for them would have been a true reach in the low thirties. However, the Oilers had the best chance of knowing exactly who and what he is and may have acted accordingly.

    Moroz may have been on their board in the first round and who knows maybe the Oilers were right. I’d argue if you see a player 60 times a year you probably know that player better than a scout who sees him 5 or 6 times. I have no idea if Moroz is any good at all. Haven’t seen him play a lot, didn’t notice him in the games where I know I must have been looking at him.

    I just know that judging a team and its scouting staff on one pick in a draft is logically flawed. Lets go back to last year and ask this, if Tobias Reider is the second coming of Pavel Datsyuk would we care (given RNH is playing in the NHL and looking good), about how bad those other picks are or aren’t? It would still have been a great draft.

    The thing is Cactus is right, we can’t know if Reider is Datysuk for years. The known percentage difference at this moment in time between Moroz or say Finn making the NHL is actually very small and has more to do with which team drafted who than anything else. Your imagined difference is based on tiny sample sizes and prejudices and assumptions. No offense intended, you aren’t alone in finding the Oilers frustrating or this pick bizarre. I share your pain. I just don’t magnify it by making assumptions about the Oilers management and scouting staff beind idiots.

  90. PDO says:

    DBO:
    Lots of heated discussion. On another note, from Mackinnon at the Sun:\

    NO TAKERS FOR OMARK: The Oilers dangled disgruntled winger Linus Omark all weekend, but there were no takers. They are also looking for a defenceman — making two calls to Chicago for Niklas Hjalmarsson — but there was no deal.

    Hjalmarsson is not a world beater, but would be in our top 4. Pair him with Shultz (younger if we sign him ) and that is a solid 2nd pair, allowing older shultz to play with Whitney as pairing 2b.

    Hjarlmarsson would be a great add, and that’s exactly how he should be deployed.

    The question is, what do you give up?

  91. fuzzy muppet says:

    PDO,

    Paajarvi and peckham (add a pick?) for hjalmersson and frolik. Chicago wants to clear some cap to run at suter

  92. rickithebear says:

    i wrote this on a piece of paper right after the first choices.

    XXX-RNH-yakupv
    XXX-Hall-Eberle
    XXX-Gagner-Rieder

    then I smiled.

    Chris;
    Jujhar Khaira was picked just before Bozon.

    Bozon: 6’1″ 180lb 1PPG CHL 50/50 march birth ceilng .64
    1 X.64 = .64 X 82 = 52Pt expected cieling

    Jujhar Khaira: 6’3″ 200LB bchl production equal to .97CHL aug birth ceiling .75
    .97 x .75 = .73 x 82 = 60 pt nhl cieling. potential for top 20 center.

    i figured we could get
    #1 yakupov
    #32 Bozon
    #63 Khaira

    but to get Yakupov, Khairs and Zharkov that is 3 of my top ten wanted forwards.

  93. spoiler says:

    The Oilers waited till their third rebuild draft to go for the size/skating/toughness combo over offensive talent. Obviously offense was the higher priority in the re-build.

    And they waited till the worst draft for talent to turn their back on offense and try and find that skillset.

  94. spoiler says:

    Ricki, I like Khaira, but are you sure on that .97 translation from Jr. A to CHL? That seems high.

  95. PDO says:

    fuzzy muppet:
    PDO,

    Paajarvi and peckham (add a pick?) for hjalmersson and frolik. Chicago wants to clear some cap to run at suter

    Frolik is a LW/C, correct?

    I’d toss in a 2nd to that without blinking and feel like I robbed Chicago blind. Not only does it make trading Gagner much easier, but it also gives you the perfect guy to play opposite Yak in his rookie season… a two-way player who can wheel and has some offensive instincts.

    Not sure it’s enough going to them, though nearly $6,000,000 in cap is worth something.

  96. PDO says:

    Hall – Gagner – Hemsky
    Harty – RNH – Eberle
    Frolik – Horcoff – Yakupov
    Eager – Belanger – Jones

    Smid – Petry
    Hammer – J. Schultz
    Whitney – N. Schultz

    Not that it means much, but that would be the best 18 skaters the Oilers have iced in a very long time.

  97. fuzzy muppet says:

    PDO,

    Frolik has been playing the tough minutes for years. He brings some offense but not sure i would categorize him as a second line guy.

    IMO he’s the perfect third line winger in the pisani mold that LT has been clamouring for.

    I’d target him over hjalmersson if it came down to it.

    Ideal world: they add Frolik, Sekaras, schultz(the schenn trade doesnt help the chances of him coming here), konopka. Subtract Jones, belanger, peckham for sure.

  98. PDO says:

    fuzzy muppet:
    PDO,

    Frolik has been playing the tough minutes for years.He brings some offense but not sure i would categorize him as a second line guy.

    IMO he’s the perfect third line winger in the pisani mold that LT has been clamouring for.

    I’d target him over hjalmersson if it came down to it.

    Ideal world:they add Frolik, Sekaras, schultz(the schenn trade doesnt help the chances of him coming here), konopka.Subtract Jones, belanger, peckham for sure.

    Hammer is more important, but Frolik would be a great add… they need a two-way LW to play with Horcoff and Yak. The other option is Kulemin. Adding one of those guys is paramount to this season.

  99. RickDeckard says:

    Cactus:
    “Is it because the GMs are mostly idiots?Or is it because this is a lot harder than it looks?”

    The majority of GM candidates are high school educated people that proceeded to participate in a career that is known to cause brain injuries. They do their jobs in full view of a very passionate, tradition-bound media/consumer base and simple luck can give them a reputation for incompetence or genius.

  100. rickithebear says:

    spoiler: Ricki, I like Khaira, but are you sure on that .97 translation from Jr. A to CHL? That seems high.

    Spoiler: Kid was 79 pts in 54 games. 1.463ppg

    BCHL NHLE is 0.19 two of the three CHL .29 .19/.29 = .655
    1.463 x .655 = .96 PPG CHL
    Aug 94 is .75 junior equivalency by 22.
    .96 X .75 = .72; .72 X 82 games = 59 points.
    in the last ten drafts;
    i looked for 17 year olds 6’3″ + centers drafted who had expect nhl production near or better than this young man selected @ #63.

    11-12:
    Grigorenko 80 pts expected #12
    Faksa 55pt expected #13
    Gaunce 53 pts expected #26
    10-11
    Couturier 78 pts expected #8
    07-08
    L. Adam 54 pts expected #44
    05-06
    J. Sheppard 65 pts expected #9
    j. Staal 62 Pts expected #2
    02-03
    J. Carter 58 pts expected #11
    Getzlaf 54 Pts expected #19

    the kid needs acouple of years to grow into his body but come on!

  101. cabbiesmacker says:

    As a longtime Blackhawks fan can I just say this regarding the Oilers taking Michael Frolik?….YES PLEASE.

    Dude’s hot garbage and if the Oilers are trying to get a little grittier and move up in the standings in so doing he’s probably the last player you’d want on your team. Find a Ladd, Versteeg, Byfuglien, or Brouwer if you can because subbing in crap like Frolik for any of those will only set your improvement schedule back 2 years.

    As for Hjalmarsson be careful what you wish for. He’s regressed imo and most Hawk fans would not miss him at all. I disagree with those who think he’d improve the Oilers top 4. Whitney, Schultz, Petry and Smid are all better Dmen. If Schultz should happen to come along NH would be the #6 at $3.5M per for 2 years. Theres better options for that kind of money.

  102. PDO says:

    And that’s why we can get those two players on the cheap.

    Frolik has been murdered by the %’s two years in a row.

    Hammer is a bit more of a risk, but he’s a guy I’d have no issue bringing in to a be a 3-4.

  103. BONVIE says:

    spoiler,

    I agree the Oilers had to move up a few spots to take this guy..end of story… it had to be done.

    These are the guys that if they pan out like Lucic, Clarkson, Neal, Messier, and Neely they are very hard to acquire through a trade. The Oilers felt very strong about getting there man and they did, if it works the will look like geniuses if they did wait or traded down 10 spots they may have lost him. Think about the teams back when Lucic was drafted that really liked the guy but thought he would go to the next round.

    Some posters (especially on some of the other sites) are in a panic because some undersized swede has more skill and was left on the board. Relax we have skilled Swedes in the organization who are bigger, faster and more skilled than this years flavour, and are still trying to crack the lineup. After the Kings won the Stanley I think the value of physical players with good size and posses some decent skills went way up.

    Most people have already forgotten about Rjalla and his undersized skill and Omark who we could not find a spot for last year, we have small skill in the organization we need a lot more guys like Pitlick, and Hamilton and hopefully some will develop. I still believe that Hamilton will develop into a good player despite his slow start in the AHL.

    Right now if you are a player that is likely to crack the Edmonton Oilers at the forward position it wont be because you have some great dangles with the puck. The skilled positions look pretty full at forward to me.

    I believe Moroz will score 30+ goals this year in Junior. Last year was a decent rookie season as a 17 year old where he scores 16 goals and gets stronger as the year goes on playing in a 3rd or 4th line position. This year I am certain from everything I have heard from the organization that he will have a permanent spot on the top 6 with some highly skilled players. I would love to see Moroz play with Lazar.

    I think the Oilers are very comfortable having players play for a team like the Oil Kings whom they have some influence in their development on that team. Having their picks playing for a Championship calibre team that they have that close of an association with is very good thing.

  104. Ribs says:

    ashley: Clutterbuck is another great example. How do you get a guy like that?

    Draft him at 72.

    Dorsett 189th overall
    Ott 25th overall (before guys like Lubomir Visnovsky, Henrik Lundqvist)
    Marchand 71st overall
    Lucic 50th overall
    Downie 29th overall (before Paul Stastny, Kris Letang, Jonathan Quick. Traded away)

    I hope for the best.

  105. Dave Casselman says:

    VOR,

    Well thought out. Surely do hope you’re right cause if you are, and if management can keep the club together financially, it’s Dynasty II time.

  106. russ99 says:

    As a Chicago based Oilers fan, another resounding no on Frolik. I’d take Stalberg over him in a heartbeat, and so would the Hawks.

    As for Hjalmarsson, he’d be an interesting pickup, as long as then Oilers don’t make the same mistake as the Hawks and expect first pairing play out of the guy. Due to Doug Wilson’s offer sheet, he got way overpayed early, and expectations far overreached ability.

    Now for the elephant in the room, Linus Omark.

    Since nobody wants to give up even a late round pick for him, how about another shot under Krueger (assumed) to get back to where he was trending a year ago? If not, he ends up bolting to the SEL or KHL and we get nothing for our trouble…

  107. DeadmanWaking says:

    I recall reading some anecdotes a while back about the famous Gretzky, Lemieux, Murphy goal. I can’t find the comment from Murphy just now, but it was basically “I thought to myself, he sure as hell isn’t passing it to me, so what do I do instead?” What I found instead in a quick search was some random YouTuber running around adding this comment to every Canada Cup video:

    Gretzky interviewed years later: “I had the puck and saw Murphy and Lemieux open and thought – I’m sure as hell not passing it to Murphy”.

    We’re all so bothered about coke machines expressing plus offensive talent in a junior league. Tell me, who is going to pass this guy the puck when he gets here? On any given rush, you’re pretty much guaranteed to spot one of Hall, Nuge, Eberle, Yak, Gagner, or Hemmer riding shotgun into the seam. This is not your grandfather’s crazy train.

    In the glossy Moroz procurement brochure, I see a north-south steam-engine willing to lug the puck from the corners into the blue paint to partake in some Aussie-rules pitch-and-putt, with nimble Hoplites (culled from elite Spartan academies) scheming behind him from the second rank. Shouldn’t we be measuring his destiny with ice packs rather than goals or assists?

    Imagine if WoW actually had decent artifacts.

    You have found Ryan Smyth’s hockey pants. +30 dumb luck when exchanging blows at close quarters.

    You have found Jordan Eberle’s hockey glove. All potions, lotions, and spells double in potency for five seconds prior to wearing off.

    You have found Taylor Hall’s codpiece. Triple scatter effect during berserker rampage.

    I’m just saying we need to evaluate Moroz in his own terms. He’s not the boxcar. He’s the cattle catcher. Damn expensive cattle catcher, as we all agree.

  108. Cactus says:

    RickDeckard: The majority of GM candidates are high school educated people that proceeded to participate in a career that is known to cause brain injuries. They do their jobs in full view of a very passionate, tradition-bound media/consumer base and simple luck can give them a reputation for incompetence or genius.

    The education thing is such a red herring. Experience and judgment matters here, not additional years of pyrrhic education.

    I just got my PhD last week (finally!) and I can tell you that I trust these people to do their jobs with their high school educations as much and more than many of my collegues receiving PhDs and Master’s degrees.

  109. Lowetide says:

    Cactus: Congrats!

  110. Cactus says:

    Lowetide,

    Thanks LT. Damn sucker takes forever. I’m just lucky my wife stayed supportive throughout it! I’m a lucky man.

  111. cabbiesmacker says:

    PDO:
    And that’s why we can get those two players on the cheap.

    Frolik has been murdered by the %’s two years in a row.

    Hammer is a bit more of a risk, but he’s a guy I’d have no issue bringing in to a be a 3-4.

    DBO

    If Frolik at $2.3 isn’t going to impact our top 6 – 9 positively I don’t think it matters whether you can get him on the cheap or not. Omark for a lot less $$ is just as effective and that’s saying a lot. Nyet to Frolik at ANY cost. You can’t polish a turd.

    NH still doesn’t better the existing top 4. You’re asking to be disappointed and for a fairly high price. The Sharks saw to that with their offer sheet last offseason.

  112. gogliano says:

    Cactus: ,

    Congrats, it’s a long haul. And as a fellow Ph.D. I share the sentiment. In some cases I’d even say education can get in the way more than it helps.

  113. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Cactus,

    congrats!!!

    as a party to a PhD coupling, I can empathize with your various struggles. I constantly get the sense that my colleagues and my lady’s are out to lunch…

    best of luck on the job market!

  114. DSF says:

    Woodguy: That’s the 2nd time today you’ve compared Moroz’s 17 year old year to someone’s 19 year old year.

    You really don’t need to do that to make the pick look poor.

    It does it by itself.

    Since both players were taken in the same draft, the Oilers are betting, obviously, that Moroz will be a better , more productive player at some point.

    While that may happen, it also may not happen.

    Since both players were available, I would think the smart bet would be on the player who has already reached a higher level.

  115. Lowetide says:

    WHAT? WHAT?

  116. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Cactus: 2012 Draft, All Players by Birth Year:
    1989: 1
    1991: 1
    1992: 20
    1993: 58
    1994: 131

    How many of the ’93s were post-Sept 16 birthdays?

    Congrats on the PhD. What round were you drafted in entering post-secondary education?

  117. oilswell says:

    My difficulty with the Oilers or any team such as Calgary making their hilarious reach picks is that the draft isn’t in the 1970s anymore. There is not some kid playing in a barn outside Prague or or in Big Beaver Saskatchewan that no one has ever seen or heard of. There are numerous independent scouting services, Central Scouting and the medias reports such as Bob MacKenzie which essentially report team scouting consensus. When the teams think they know better than everyone else they are essentially fighting the wisdom of crowds.

    Drafting people like Moroz is essentially irrational. It represents the triumph of hope and dreams over logic. If a player is as good as you believe he is, why is there not hard evidence in the form of results to support it?

    This is a great post. I don’t think much of the Moroz pick but then nobody pays me for my opinion. Still, you’ve presented the argument well, but it is a limited argument.

    According to your logic, the most rational course of action for the Oilers is to fire their entire amateur scouting department and simply pick off the consensus list. In fact, I think this wouldn’t be that bad of an idea, but I’m not sure everyone would agree. Speeds, perhaps. You too? Regardless, this is the direct implication of your proposal that any deviation in picking from the crowd-sourced wisdom is an exercise in irrationality. So for S&G I will assume that you wouldn’t fire the amateur scouts and would be in favour of them providing their best opinions in exchange for their meager salary. OK? Further, lets assume that their opinion is not simply the next in line in the consensus list otherwise there’s still nothing to debate.

    So you’re PAYING your scouts to deviate from consensus. It is worth reiterating this: the only rational point to paying for scouting is to make reach picks off the consensus. Sure, there are elements of horse trading and gamesmanship on the draft floor in trading up or down or figuring out who will be available when. But that all is dependent entirely on having a draft ranking already in place by your scouting department. If you’re going off the consensus list there’s still no role for the scouting department.

    OK, we’re either firing the scouts or paying them to reach. Agreed? Then the deviations from consensus will be based on some data and reasoning arrived at presumably through some means other than darts and tarot cards. I’m pretty sure they look at boxcars, for example, and are keenly aware of the difficulty of bringing offense to the show. But what else besides? Surely they will have to consider other factors besides boxcars and vitals. Here are several possibilities: injury, coaching style, TOI, situation play, projectable growth, projectable playing style. While I think the Moneypuck approach is incredibly valuable I don’t think junior scouting is at the point where the “traditional” assessments have become moot or irrational.

    So then the purpose of your scouting department is to reach off the consensus list due to observation and analysis of factors other than published boxcars, and even past quantifiable moneypuck analysis because this is the state of the art presently.

    With this in mind let us consider your proposal that offensive ability in the form of boxcars would inevitably follow from raw ability. I think that would be true in most cases, but can easily envision not-at-all-unreasonable cases where it is not. For example, players playing in SEL of SM-Liiga are well known to have pedestrian boxcars that are difficult to project reliably. As I understand it, the reason is that (apart from being men’s leagues and hence difficult), the players are often kept at the end of the roster even if they have high offensive ceilings. This limits their ability to be in offensive situations (good linemates, risk taking, power play, etc.). There can be similar roster effects in Canadian Junior. For instance, a decent player on a crummy squad will be gifted playing time and may see his boxcars be over-inflated. We might call this the “Pouliot effect”. Alternately, a decent player on a strong squad will have playing time limited, particularly PP time, and see his boxcars unrepresentatively diminished. This could have been a factor for Moroz, but I think its pretty safe to assume the scouting team (a wisdom of a small crowd, after all) was taking into account this an many other factors.

    Back to the point, its a solid bet that the Oiler scouting team were being paid to reach and did so in a rational way using actual observation and probably mostly defensible reasoning. From Tambellini’s announcement it is clear that the Oilers brass were paying them to develop their best list of coke machine picks after the 1st round. The brass may have asked them how weak the field is after the 1st round and made that decision then, and maybe that decision is not defensible from the standpoint of getting value from your picks. I wouldn’t doubt that most scouting departments are given a list of preferences / needs for later rounds, so they’re always going to deviate from the consensus in a directed fashion.

    So to sum up: the picks made do not represent the scouting team’s best assessment of value, but represent in part the best coke machine list they were directed to generate. Further, after factoring out the irrationality of selecting for need, the deviation from consensus is rational and is very likely to be precisely what the Oilers paid for. Given that many feel that Moroz wouldn’t be available at their next pick, it probably means that either it wasn’t much of a reach, or that they knew other scouting teams were high on Moroz (further justifying their ranking according to your theory of crowd accuracy).

    Now I’m interested in whether there is data to support the impact of team situation on scoring numbers. The above argument stands without it, but it would be even stronger with suggestions that team context impacts projection. With that, I’ll take some names upthread and look at context. Below are the names, points per game, team winning ratio (wins/(wins+losses)), and points rank on team for their 17/18 yo season:

    Lucic: .31 ppg, .71, 14
    Moroz: .38 ppg, .77, 13/14
    Jacques: .49 ppg, .78, 10
    Neal: .65 ppg, .50, 5
    Dorsett: .71ppg, .75, 3
    Clutterbuck: 1.03ppg, ..29, 3

    Of the above, the reality could have been that Lucic, Moroz, and Jacques might have been down the roster (bad stats on a bad team) and that the numbers for Neal and Clutterbuck were inflated (good stats on a bad team) and that Dorsett was full value (good stats on a good team).

  118. Cactus says:

    Bruce McCurdy: How many of the ’93s were post-Sept 16 birthdays?

    Congrats on the PhD. What round were you drafted in entering post-secondary education?

    Thanks Bruce, Romulus and Gogliano. To answer your question Bruce, I was an underager entering into the PhD in 2006 at 23 (at least that’s young for political science). Finished in January after 5 and a half years, which is a standard development curve. So, not RNH but certainly not Plante.

    As for the birth years Bruce, I’m not sure. I only found the year data, I didn’t pull all the birthdates myself.

  119. denny33 says:

    With all due respect, what transpired in the 2nd round is EXACTLY what I have been posting about for the last few years. Anyone can pick #1 overall. Pick a random Canadian citizen on the street and they could give you the conseneus first pick overall.

    You need your SCOUTS to find players in the later rounds. In particular, the 2nd round.

    2010 – 2nd round – Justin Falk
    2009 – 2nd round – Ryan O’Reilly
    2008 – 2nd round – Voyanov, Luke Adam,Derek Stepan, Travis Hammonic
    2007 – 2nd round – PK Subban, Nick Spaling , Wayne Simmonds
    2006 – 2nd round – Jamie McGinn, Nicolei Kulemin, Milan Lucic ** ( we took Jeff Petry over Lucic )
    2005 – 2nd round – James Neal, Marc Vlasic, Onrej Pavelec, Paul Stasty , Mason Raymond
    ** Pavelec was the MVP goalie for the jets this year. We drafted Taylor Chorney

    Picking 1st or 2nd in the 2nd round should mean something…..their was an audible gasp when Calgary made their 1st round selection. By definition, someone right then and there fell out of the 1st round that probably should not have….Finn, Thrower, Pokka Sutter ….

    Picking up Zharkov was a good pick – great value.

    This past Saturday the Edmonton Oilers passed by a couple of players that surprisingly fell out of the 1st round and were IMMEDIATELY drafted by the teams behind us.

    Montreal made great use of their picks — Thrower and Colberg were taken in the 2nd round. Some tieams had BOTH thos players going in the first round.

    The National Post has it right – we graded out a C. And the only reason for that was no skill pick at Yakapov…..

    I truly do not understand people ( most in this forum ) idolozing our scouting staff.

    Ask RNH about Lukas Sutter – the Jets found him in the 2nd round. this year.

    Only time will tell, but we have been picking 1st (or 2nd) in the 2nd round now for three years running. I have to assume there is a Lucic, Pavelic or Hammonic there somewhere.

    However, in hearing what 3rd parties have to say about us is not giving me a good feeling.

  120. denny33 says:

    Rondo,
    One draft ….we are nearly half a decade picking at the top of the draft..

  121. DSF says:

    denny33:
    With all due respect, what transpired in the 2nd round is EXACTLY what I have been posting about for the last few years. Anyone can pick #1 overall. Pick a random Canadian citizen on the street and they could give you the conseneus first pick overall.

    You need your SCOUTS to find players in the later rounds. In particular, the 2nd round.

    2010 – 2nd round – Justin Falk
    2009 – 2nd round – Ryan O’Reilly
    2008 – 2nd round – Voyanov, Luke Adam,Derek Stepan, Travis Hammonic
    2007 – 2nd round – PK Subban, Nick Spaling , Wayne Simmonds
    2006 – 2nd round – Jamie McGinn, Nicolei Kulemin, Milan Lucic ** ( we took Jeff Petry over Lucic )
    2005 – 2nd round – James Neal, Marc Vlasic, Onrej Pavelec, Paul Stasty , Mason Raymond ** Pavelec was the MVP goalie for the jets this year. We drafted Taylor Chorney

    Picking 1st or 2nd in the 2nd round should mean something…..their was an audible gasp when Calgary made their 1st round selection. By definition, someone right then and there fell out of the 1st round that probably should not have….Finn, Thrower, Pokka Sutter ….

    Great post.

    Passing up those players who fell out of the first round should have been Job One at 32.
    Picking up Zharkov was a good pick – great value.

    This past Saturday the Edmonton Oilers passed by a couple of players that surprisingly fell out of the 1st round and were IMMEDIATELY drafted by the teams behind us.

    Montreal made great use of their picks — Thrower and Colberg were taken in the 2nd round. Some tieams had BOTH thos players going in the first round.

    The National Post has it right – we graded out a C. And the only reason for that was no skill pick at Yakapov…..

    I truly do not understand people ( most in this forum ) idolozing our scouting staff.

    Ask RNH about Lukas Sutter – the Jets found him in the 2nd round. this year.

    Only time will tell, but we have been picking 1st (or 2nd) in the 2nd round now for three years running. I have to assumethere is a Lucic, Pavelic or Hammonic there somewhere.

    However, in hearing what 3rd parties have to say about us is not giving me a good feeling.

  122. speeds says:

    oilswell,

    Great post.

    I don’t think teams should just draft off the consensus list. I do think teams should pay more attention to the consensus ranking that it seems to me like they do. Not necessarily so their ranking will fall more in line, although in most cases that may be the end result, but as something to help them create their own list and potentially modify it. If you have Moroz in your top 30, and no one else has him higher than 58, I would want to reexamine what I think I’m seeing that others don’t.

    It seems like scouts may be functioning as background investigators more than they used to, and that is something a scouting staff can do that external ranking sources generally don’t, as far as I know. You have to be careful that the background information you find is relevant, you don’t want to put too much weight in irrelevant info just because you’re the only one that has it, but you’re deciding between 4 players at a certain spot, is it possible that background information might be helpful in decision making? Sure, and that might be info you can’t get without a scouting staff.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca