OILERS AT 153: JOHN MCCARRON

McCarron, 20, scored six goals and 19 points in 35 regular-season games with Cornell last year. Prior to his career in the ECAC, he played with the Lincoln Stars of the USL, appearing in 137 games over parts of three seasons. In 2010-11, his last with Lincoln, he captained the Stars and produced 24 goals and 57 points in 60 games.6.02, 225.

Stu MacGregor: “John McCarron has a big body, has good hands. Very strong on the puck. He takes it to the net, has a good shot. Strong around the net. Another guy who, after a couple of years in college, we can hopefully look forward to forward him challenging to make the team.”

 

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178 Responses to "OILERS AT 153: JOHN MCCARRON"

  1. DBO says:

    all college all the time late rds I suppose

  2. Marc says:

    Another overager…

  3. PunjabiOil says:

    Another overager.

    Today’s draft should be judged on what they did in the 2nd round.

    They likely took their guy earlier than they should have – some solid talent was passed up in doing so.

    Stu MacGregor shouldn’t be anointed magnificent status just yet. His 2nd round picks are still very, very, questionable.

  4. eidy says:

    Would have preferred Finn, col berg, Or aberg at 32 by a longshot. Otherwise seems ok. I also would have taken ebert at 153

  5. fuzzy muppet says:

    PunjabiOil,

    Awful from a value perspective. Just terrible. ESP with guys like Collberg, Frk, Finn available…

    They better PRAY he becomes Lucic….He’s more likely JFJ JR.

  6. ASkoreyko says:

    Seems to me they are clearly marking this draft as the outer marker of talent nucleus for the current group. They are taking overagers that might be able to step in and help our current core when we try to take a run at the cup.

    I am sure you will see the next draft go based on talent instead of trying to find the right support players for our current core.

  7. wordbird says:

    Sabres just took a Linus Ullmark at #163.

  8. PunjabiOil says:

    To be fair, it very well be possible Stu was instructed to drafted a guy for need over BPA.

    Oil Change episode 1, Kevin Lowe remarked (paraphrasing) ”I’m a big believer that if you wanna play in the bottom six, you need some jam, some grit”

  9. Professor Q says:

    Alas no goalie yet. Love the Zharkov interview.

  10. Lowetide says:

    They did what they always do. Spend the third round on coke machines, goalies and enforcers, and then save the draft in later rounds. The ONLY out of place selection is Moroz and I suspect they believe he’ll emerge as more of a scorer when he gets increased minutes.

    I’ll ask Corey and Kent about it on Nation Radio today.

  11. DeadmanWaking says:

    Lincoln Stars Diary: John McCarron

    It’d be nice to play for Michigan or Michigan State back home, but it’s what you got to do. I’m going to study medicine, and maybe go into pediatric orthopedic surgery. It’s going to be long journey, but I’ve always wanted to be a doctor.

    Seems they project him to become the next Randy Gregg. He’s really well spoken. Perhaps Stu was influenced by the Carolina reunion tour:

    My brother, Mike McCarron, plays for Honeybaked Midget Majors in Michigan, and he might get a chance to play for the National Team Development Program next year. He’s already 6-foot-6 and he’s only 15-years old.

  12. Marc says:

    PunjabiOil: u MacGregor shouldn’t be anointed magnificent status just yet. His 2nd round picks are still very, very, questionable.

    What on earth are you talking about?

    Second round picks have around a 15% chance of becoming NHL players.

    Lander has already played in the NHL (albeit he probably shouldn’t have).

    Marincin is the Oiler’s second or third best D prospect.

    Pitlick and Musil were consensus first rounders

    Hamilton was a projected first rounder coming off an injury filled season.

    Picking a guy ten or fifteen spots before he was projected to go suddenly outweighs all that? Or are you saying that all the other picks were terrible too (and you of course said so at the time rather than applied 20/20 hindsight)?

  13. Chris says:

    I think we can safely say that Stu thinks he knows his backyard in BC better than the rest of his league.

  14. Rondo says:

    You can’t have it both ways . Either your with Stu or your with the rankings. Most of us don’t have a clue what most players will become especially in the later picks. To say they should have picked X over Moroz who knows. Obviously they like Moroz and thought he would be gone by the 3rd rd.
    Also maybe Oilers like their D in their system better than anything in the 2nd or 3rd round.

  15. PunjabiOil says:

    Lander has already played in the NHL (albeit he probably shouldn’t have).

    Marincin is the Oiler’s second or third best D prospect.

    Pitlick and Musil were consensus first rounders

    Hamilton was a projected first rounder coming off an injury filled season.

    Picking a guy ten or fifteen spots before he was projected to go suddenly outweighs all that? Or are you saying that all the other picks were terrible too (and you of course said so at the time rather than applied 20/20 hindsight)?

    1. Wasn’t a fan of taking Lander. Wanted Elliot back then. Don’t see much upside in Lander – limited offense. Would be surprised if he becomes a regular NHLer. IMO he’s Ryan O’Marra 2.0

    2. Pitlick I can understand – BPA.

    3. Wanted Rattie last year instead of Musil. Lets see what happens.

    4. Left value on the table this year. Better players were available. And yes, while 2nd round picks generally have a small chance of becoming impact players, that doesn’t mean we can’t judge bad backs in terms of value. Case in point, Cameron Abney was a bad pick when it was made, because the upside was limited and guys like him are available every year in the UFA market.

    In the same vein, I feel the 32nd OV pick this year was a missed opportunity.

  16. PunjabiOil says:

    Chris:
    I think we can safely say that Stu thinks he knows his backyard in BC better than the rest of his league.

    The same backyard in which he recommended the bust in Riley Nash (for which the Oilers traded up for)?

  17. Thiru says:

    I’m going to second PJO with respect to Stu MacGregor, and go one further, and suggest we banish the “magnificent” moniker once and for all .

    There are Duncan Keiths to be found in the second round, and though the chances are slim you’ll find one, your chances of finding one are zero if your second round draftee’s ceiling is lineup filler.

    In the AHL.

    Colour me unimpressed.

  18. russ99 says:

    So who picks Justin Schultz in the 7th round?

    Also Linus Omark is still an Oiler…

  19. fuzzy muppet says:

    PunjabiOil,

    Agreed.

    You don’t take guy’s with limited upside in the top 90 and spend 5 years developing them hoping they become 4th liners.

    You can always get 4th liners for nothing.

    Outside of pick 32, they did fine.

    I would have preferred they try and get some decent Center prospects. THey’re all in on Lander and Ewanyk. After that they have NOTHING down the middl

  20. PunjabiOil says:

    Outside of pick 32, they did fine.

    And that’s just my problem for the day. This was a pick with the best opportunity of landing a potentially impact player – and they didn’t take opportunity of it.

    It’s quite sad, actually.

  21. fuzzy muppet says:

    A lot of folks were mad they didn’t trade up into the first round last night.

    At the time I wasn’t because they were going to get a quality prospect at 32.

    Had I known they were going in this direction, I would have preferred a trade up..

  22. Professor Q says:

    Maybe they sign Hasek?

  23. pboy says:

    You can’t grade a draft on the day it happens.

  24. fuzzy muppet says:

    One positive is that Toronto loaded up on D prospects. You’d have to think Schultz is thinking really hard about Edmonton.

  25. Lowetide says:

    MBS is something I use and will continue to; MBS earned it for the Eberle pick. As for anyone else, I think that’s part of the fun. Stu MacGregor had an uneven day, the pick at #32 being the big item. Even including management imposing their will I think it’s reasonable to suggest they could have talked the team into taking him later in round 2.

    bob McKenzie had him #56, I think it’s reasonable to suggest EDM could have traded back to #40 and picked something up. Maybe they had the conversation, maybe they didn’t. But Moroz was a ranked player, so it’s not a Niinimaki moment.

  26. Rondo says:

    It quite amazing that the posters here know more than EDm scouts. I wonder who this impact player is in the 2nd round?

    BTW, they did attempt to trade up in the 1st rd.

  27. striatic says:

    good late round picks but they don’t “save the draft” for me.

    32 was an incredibly valuable opportunity. sure, 15% chance of developing into something but at the top of the round and informed selection you try to turn that 15% into a coin flip.

    moroz you can’t hold this against though, and i’m glad he is an oiler.

    something to consider, Moroz’s stock likely went up with his playoff performance and this may not have been reflected in the independent rankings. so the window to select Moroz was likely smaller than the rankings indicated. same with Samuellson and the oilers missed him.

  28. Lowetide says:

    Striatic: Agree. I think there was so much value there the Oilers needed to grab one of the guys who fell out of the first round. I can’t imagine the Oilers had Moroz ahead of the group we discussed this morning.

  29. fuzzy muppet says:

    I’m just hoping they get some actual NHL Defensemen in the next 10 days. Tambellini doesn’t exactly have a sterling rep when it come to acquiring pro talent….

  30. fuzzy muppet says:

    Nick e=Ebert goes from first rounder to the last pick in the draft in 10 month’s. Scouting has to be a very difficult job.

  31. wordbird says:

    Kings take Ebert with last pick of draft.

  32. PunjabiOil says:

    “”Today was a good day. We wanted to add some size to play with our more profile people.” – GM Steve Tambellini”

    ____________

    Seems like the 32nd pick had Tambellini’s handprints all over it.

    Guy doesn’t understand value. Bad GM.

  33. spoiler says:

    Pretty fine draft, all in all. I would have bet money that any D picks would come from NCAA or Europe so the Oil don’t jam up the farm, and that’s what they did. They picked up some real quality today in Moroz, Jarjar, Zharkov and Laleggia. Well done, Stu.

  34. PunjabiOil says:

    “We knew he wasn’t getting to our next pick. He’s got a lot of upside. He’s got courage on both sides of the puck.” – Tambellini on Moroz

  35. Rondo says:

    Lowetide,

    They had all night to think of the 32nd pick. They must have seen something in him or else the would have gone after a Dman. Perhaps they tried to move up in the draft to get Henrik Samuelsson and this was their plan B

  36. fuzzy muppet says:

    PunjabiOil,

    At least he didn’t screw up #1

  37. Henry says:

    ˜Did Jeremie Blain or Czerwonka get redrafted?

  38. PunjabiOil says:

    GM Tambellini says the #Oilers took the best player available in Round 1 (Yakupov) and addressed needs with their Day 2 picks today

  39. striatic says:

    the more i think about it, the better i feel about the Moroz pick.

    1] he was going to go much earlier than 56th due to offset between independent rankings and playoff performance. there is a lagging bump due to that and we saw it with Samuelson.

    2] the oilers know Moroz better than any other team. they know what they have and how to develop it, and probably have a better understanding of how deployment influenced his stats.

    3] they do need his player type.

  40. denny33 says:

    PunjabiOil,

    I could not agree with punjabioil more, picking 32nd you can take advantage of teams that reach and select project players ( Calgary , etc ) . Year in, year out, players fall because some teams feel they know a player better than any other team and reach ….Sean Coutierier at one time was among the top 3 last year…actually, I believe at one point is was considered #1 , fell all the way down to #8. Every year. This year the oilers reached big time in the 2nd round and the teams behind them jumped at Finn and Pokka, Thrower etc,

    Any monkey can pick #1 overall player in the world. You have to make the 2nd round count when you are picking 32d overall.

  41. Marc says:

    One way or another, Justin Schultz will definitely be able to sign as a free agent on July 1st

  42. fuzzy muppet says:

    PunjabiOil,

    They Have 2 center prospects…they took 0 centers

  43. striatic says:

    also

    4] they saw overaged D men they really liked and knew they didn’t need to pick D at 32.

  44. fuzzy muppet says:

    Oh well. Thee chances of most 2-7 rounders ever making an impact is slim.

    More importantly, Now Tambo has to fix the Defence. He’s on his last leg…

  45. DBO says:

    Ok. The other Russian is now my favorite pick. Watch this interview. Love it, says because he fell in draft and Yak was taken before him it makes him angry to try harder to be better then Yak.

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2012/6/23/3112539/daniil-zharkov-edmonton-oilers-third-round-pick-91

  46. PunjabiOil says:

    Jonathan Willis ‏@JonathanWillis

    Stauffer predicting Hemsky or Paajarvi dealt for a ‘D’, Hartikainen to get a top-six role.

    _________

    MPS sure. But Hemsky? Why?

    Are the Oilers allergic to depth?

  47. Rondo says:

    OT:

    Why did NJ use it’s pick 29th? Perhaps they thought they were going to trade it.

  48. mustang says:

    To all the haters of the Moroz pick, How many of you guys actually seen this young man play live?
    Yes there was talent left. Moroz has the ability to be that Lucic type player that ever team covets. How do you get that type of player? you have to draft him. His game improved a lot this past year and I believe he will score 25-30 next year for the OK.

    Lets judge this draft in 4-5 yrs

  49. DBO says:

    PunjabiOil,

    Agreed. What if it’s Hemsky for Yandle? Better or worse?

  50. PunjabiOil says:

    Lets judge this draft in 4-5 yrs.

    …but that’s no fun

  51. PunjabiOil says:

    DBO:
    PunjabiOil,

    Agreed. What if it’s Hemsky for Yandle? Better or worse?

    Well obviously I think if you have a shot at a guy like Yandle for Hemsky, you do it.

    Sigh – with who they picked at 32nd, wish they had just used that pick to acquire an NHL defenceman in the trade market.

  52. Traktor says:

    Blain goes undrafted.

    Looks like all the criticism for not signing him was unwarranted.

  53. regwald says:

    mustang:
    To all the haters of the Moroz pick, How many of you guys actually seen this young man play live?
    Yes there was talent left. Moroz has the ability to be that Lucic type player that ever team covets. How do you get that type of player? you have to draft him. His game improved a lot this past year and I believe he will score 25-30 next year for the OK.

    Lets judge this draft in 4-5 yrs

    I saw 5 playoff games in person and watched the Memorial cup. My younger bro saw about 4 or 5 home games during the regular season and he raved about him.

    My playoff games started in round 2 and I was not as impressed or excited about Moroz. He does play physical and mixes things up. No doubt, but I don’t see the point production being there. Just not the hands of skill set. A hard working physical player, but bottom 6 player from my viewings.

    My view is that taking him @ 32 is a bit early.

  54. Lowetide says:

    Traktor:
    Blain goes undrafted.

    Looks like all the criticism for not signing him was unwarranted.

    i stand by my indignation and officially name Jeremie Blain a member of the Marc Pouliot All Stars. Seriously, a team can sign Blain now, I would be surprised if he slips through.

  55. nathan says:

    “A lot of folks were mad they didn’t trade up into the first round last night.”

    I too would like to join in the rage in every NHL city outside Pittsburgh that our stupid GM stood by while all the good GMs were trading into the 1st round during the draft.

  56. DSF says:

    striatic:
    the more i think about it, the better i feel about the Moroz pick.

    1] he was going to go much earlier than 56th due to offset between independent rankings and playoff performance. there is a lagging bump due to that and we saw it with Samuelson.

    2] the oilers know Moroz better than any other team. they know what they have and how to develop it, and probably have a better understanding of how deployment influenced his stats.

    3] they do need his player type.

    Unless he projects as a top 6 player, you don’t draft him at 32nd.

    This player type is always available in the offseason.

  57. spoiler says:

    DSF: Unless he projects as a top 6 player, you don’t draft him at 32nd.

    This player type is always available in the offseason.

    Haha. Now I know he was a good pick.

  58. Bruce McCurdy says:

    DSF,

    DSF: Unless he projects as a top 6 player, you don’t draft him at 32nd.

    This player type is always available in the offseason.

    Yeah, 18-year-old power forwards are falling off trees every summer.

  59. Smarmy says:

    mustang:
    To all the haters of the Moroz pick, How many of you guys actually seen this young man play live?
    Yes there was talent left. Moroz has the ability to be that Lucic type player that ever team covets. How do you get that type of player? you have to draft him. His game improved a lot this past year and I believe he will score 25-30 next year for the OK.

    Lets judge this draft in 4-5 yrs

    I’ve seen him play but not as much as season ticket holder of the Oil Kings. If you had to have a guy that’s a pain in the ass to play against you could have taken Lukas Sutter whose a strong defensive center that pisses everyone off. Last year he got RNH so worked up that Hopkins high sticked him and then fought him. (Well I guess it would be two seasons ago now..)

    Plus he nearly scored twice as many goals as Moroz this year.

    Despite that I wouldn’t advocate taken either player with the 32. I would have tried to trade into the 40s and got another 3rd rounder.

  60. Kris11 says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Was Abney a power-forward?

    It seems to me the answer is no. Power forwards have to be good.

    It still remains to be seen whether Moroz is good, But there were players available who were more likely to be good players, just as there were good players available when the Oilers selected Abney.

  61. Kris11 says:

    Just to be clear, I think Moroz at 2 is a better pick than Abney at 3, but they’re bad picks for the same reason, These picks come from overvaluing toughness and grit, and undervaluing being a good hockey player in general.

  62. PunjabiOil says:

    “With the elite skill that we have, we wanted to have some size,” said general manager Steve Tambellini. “Once in a while, you may make a trade to get some size that has the skill to play with your top six or nine, but more often than not, you have to draft and develop those players.

    “That was a goal of ours coming into this draft.”

    http://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/edmonton-oilers/draft+Edmonton+Oilers+select+Mitch+Moroz/6830717/story.html

  63. Halfwise says:

    This is a pretty comfortable armchair for all us quarterbacks….

    Drafting for organizational need has to include both OKC and the big club, no? And every kid needs a development path. Plus, it all has to fit into the 50 contracts, salary cap and league rules for how long you can hold onto kids without committing to them etc etc. If we drew up a position-by-position depth chart the picture at F and G would be not bad as of June 22. Young, sure, but fairly promising. D remains that indefensible train wreck at the NHL level that no one in the Oiler organization can be proud of. D at OKC actually has some hope visible on the eastern horizon.

    So one explanation of today would be that the team went looking for players to eventually fit into the OKC F depth chart, and players that could be developed outside OKC. Bias towards big forwards acknowledges a need. If JK can play C as well as LW then that helps a bit.

    A lot of people here seem want to show they are the smartest guys in the room. IMHO it’s more useful to try to figure out what the real decision makers were thinking than to emote over how stupid they are.

  64. DSF says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    DSF,

    Yeah, 18-year-old power forwards are falling off trees every summer.

    LOL.

    Why would you opt for an 18 year old “power forward” at 32nd overall when you can find one either much later in the draft or on the open market?

    Let’s look at just one comparable although there are many like Dwight King (4th round) Jordan Nolan (7th round) who come immediately to mind.

    Dave Bolland was also selected 32nd overall in the 2004 draft.

    In his final year in junior, Bolland scored 57 goals and 130 points with the London Knights.

    In his final year in junior, Moroz scored 16 goals and 25 points with the Oil Kings.

    I would think Moroz is much closer as a prospect to King or Nolan than he is to Bolland.

  65. Chris says:

    I’m never irked if a team drafts for need in the third or fourth rounds etc at that point its basically all fliers anyhow. But those early second round picks you’d really like to see them take the biggest talent available. Hopefully Moroz becomes a good player but we may regret that we passed on some guys like Finn and Collberg at some point.

  66. cabbiesmacker says:

    I don’t have any solid opinions on the day 2 picks other than I trust SM to be infinitely more educated on who’s who in the zoo than Mr Punjabi Oil.

    Didn’t know you were a qualified scout. Hmmm.

    Off topic but if you were to convert and learn a little microsurgery you could be PunjabiMohel

    :)

  67. ASkoreyko says:

    Halfwise:
    This is a pretty comfortable armchair for all us quarterbacks….

    Drafting for organizational need has to include both OKC and the big club, no?And every kid needs a development path.Plus, it all has to fit into the 50 contracts, salary cap and league rules for how long you can hold onto kids without committing to them etc etc.If we drew up a position-by-position depth chart the picture at F and G would be not bad as of June 22. Young, sure, but fairly promising.D remains that indefensible train wreck at the NHL level that no one in the Oiler organization can be proud of.D at OKC actually has some hope visible on the eastern horizon.

    So one explanation of today would be that the team went looking for players to eventually fit into the OKC F depth chart, and players that could be developed outsideOKC.Bias towards big forwards acknowledges a need.If JK can play C as well as LW then that helps a bit.

    A lot of people here seem want to show they are the smartest guys in the room.IMHO it’s more useful to try to figure out what the real decision makers were thinking than to emote over how stupid they are.

    Best post of this tread!

    I don’t mind when people disagree with the professionals but to call them stupid/terrible is a little over the top. We have access to about 50% of the information that is guiding the picks in the later rounds, we have no idea what the organization is going to do and can only guess at their motivations for the picks.

    Everyone is an idiot but me!

  68. PunjabiOil says:

    cabbiesmacker:
    I don’t have any solid opinions on the day 2 picks other than I trust SM to be infinitely more educated on who’s who in the zoo than Mr Punjabi Oil.

    Didn’t know you were a qualified scout. Hmmm.

    Off topic but if you were to convert and learn a little microsurgery you could be PunjabiMohel

    Cool story, bro.

  69. ASkoreyko says:

    DSF: LOL.

    Why would you opt for an 18 year old “power forward” at 32nd overall when you can find one either much later in the draft or on the open market?

    Let’s look at just one comparable although there are many like Dwight King (4th round) Jordan Nolan (7th round) who come immediately to mind.

    Dave Bolland was also selected 32nd overall in the 2004 draft.

    In his final year in junior, Bolland scored 57 goals and 130 points with the London Knights.

    In his final year in junior, Morozscored 16 goals and 25 points with the Oil Kings.

    I would think Moroz is much closer as a prospect to King or Nolan than he is to Bolland.

    I see your cherry-picked stat with Bolland and raise you with Milan Lucic.

    Milan Lucic 62 9 10 19 149 4
    Mitch Moroz 66 16 9 25 131 5

    Your move good sir.

  70. cabbiesmacker says:

    PunjabiOil: Cool story, bro.

    Just short of your cool draft opinions?

    Didn’t know you had a crystal ball that could “PROJECT” players talents 3 years out. That’s like so awesome duuuudeee.

  71. gogliano says:

    I like the rest of the draft enough (especially the two Russians) and MBS’ previous work that I’m willing to shrug at the #2 selection. Certainly it was for prospect need and I’m ok with that–having needs you have to fill by trade almost always entails overpayment whether by way of players or by way of UFA dollars–so the question is whether they could have moved down or whether someone else was better at the slot. Who knows? Drafts are won and lost on information asymmetries and good analysis of those asymmetries so if the Oil thought they knew something and Moroz wasn’t going to last I’ll take their word for it. And as a poster above mentioned most of the rankings don’t include Moroz’ solid playoff showing. I suspect he was gone mid-second round if the Oil don’t take him because of the “let’s find a Lucic in the second round” fashion in the bigs.

  72. DSF says:

    ASkoreyko: I see your cherry-picked stat with Bolland and raise you with Milan Lucic.

    Milan Lucic62910191494
    Mitch Moroz66169251315

    Your move good sir.

    I’m sure you’re aware Lucic was picked 50th not 32nd.

    I’m also sure you’re also aware that Lucic scored 30 goals and 68 points +32 in his final junior year.

    Moroz wil have to really blossom quickly and be NHL ready a year from now to be in that conversation.

  73. DeadmanWaking says:

    That type of girl is always available at the school dance …

    … yet many boys leave the dance empty-handed nevertheless.

    Is it really the case that since a few teams manage to transact these players every off-season, that every team that wishes to transact these players always succeeds? Even the snot-nosed kid with the buck teeth who hails from the arctic circle?

    Before the Black-Scholes equations, no-one could figure out how to properly value options. I find people’s confidence about the NHL as a market that clears perplexing. We have to evaluate this assumption knowing only the price on transactions completed. We never see the bids rejected. In a pure auction this doesn’t matter much, because the highest bid is almost always the bid accepted. Not true in the NHL. Not for FAs and not even for trades. GM’s will avert reputational blow-back by taking an inferior exchange from the opposite conference.

    At the school gym, there are horny guys and there are horny girls, yet the market fails to clear. Did you notice that when you were at that age? I sure did. I asked myself the eternal question: Is it me? And the answer was: Yes. Yes it is. So I changed.

  74. spoiler says:

    ASkoreyko: Best post of this tread!

    I don’t mind when people disagree with the professionals but to call them stupid/terrible is a little over the top. We have access to about 50% of the information that is guiding the picks in the later rounds, we have no idea what the organization is going to do and can only guess at their motivations for the picks.

    Everyone is an idiot but me!

    Halfwise:

    A lot of people here seem want to show they are the smartest guys in the room.IMHO it’s more useful to try to figure out what the real decision makers were thinking than to emote over how stupid they are.

    I find it quite funny when posters here go off on their rants, calling management idiots or worse. I wonder if these posters realize how foolish and immature they make themselves look with their 4 year old sandbox attitudes.

  75. Chris says:

    On the other hand people are saying Montreal won the draft and they drafted the consensus best player left on the board through the first several rounds.

  76. PunjabiOil says:

    cabbiesmacker: Just short of your cool draft opinions?

    Didn’t know you had a crystal ball that could “PROJECT” players talents 3 years out. That’s like so awesome duuuudeee.

    I’ve already explained it – it’s about value and asset management.

    Not a fan of drafting guys who don’t have offensive numbers that suggest they’ll be a top 6 forward. Bottom six guys are more easily available every year in the UFA market.

    I see Moroz’s upside being a 3rd liner if everything goes right. There were players available at 32 who had better offense or upside.

    For the record, Stu MacGregor proponents (some who for a bizarre reason give him a god-like status) used the same defence in the selection of Cameron Abney far, far, too early.

    How did that work out?

  77. spoiler says:

    DeadmanWaking: … yet many boys leave the dance empty-handed nevertheless.

    Is it really the case that since a few teams manage to transact these players every off-season, that every team that wishes to transact these players always succeeds?Even the snot-nosed kid with the buck teeth who hails from the arctic circle?

    Before the Black-Scholes equations, no-one could figure out how to properly value options.I find people’s confidence about the NHL as a market that clears perplexing.We have to evaluate this assumption knowing only the price on transactions completed.We never see the bids rejected.In a pure auction this doesn’t matter much, because the highest bid is almost always the bid accepted.Not true in the NHL.Not for FAs and not even for trades.GM’s will avert reputational blow-back by taking an inferior exchange from the opposite conference.

    At the school gym, there are horny guys and there are horny girls, yet the market fails to clear.Did you notice that when you were at that age?I sure did.I asked myself the eternal question: Is it me?And the answer was: Yes. Yes it is. So I changed.

    Thank you. That was lovely. Another great post, DMW.

    Except all of a suddenly I want to dance with horny teenage girls.

  78. gogliano says:

    I wonder if I frequented Vancouver blogs I’d see PO baiting and trolling Vancouver fans with small and biased samples.

    And, yah, DMW with another great post.

  79. gd says:

    Interestingly Boston wasted the 37th pick in Lucic’s year on a Russian who never played in the NHL. Lucic would go top 5 in a redraft, so Moroz does not have to be as good as him to be a success.I do think Moroz is a mistake, but if he gets to be as good as King he would be a success.

    I love the Khaira pick, can someone tell me how different he is from Jankowski? Very late birthdates with growth spurts playing in obscure leagues. Everytime I saw the Jankowski highlight clips, I expected to see the Trouba hit when he was 12.

  80. asiaoil says:

    These guys are still idiots when they don’t have the obvious shoved in their face – #1 pick. You never draft a guy like Moroz this high as you can ALWAYS trade brains (top 6 skill) for muscle (bottom 6 grinders). Absolutely deplorable with Finn and de Guiseppe still on the boards. You think they would figure out how bad they are at drafting this kind of player after a dozen or so failures – they can be criticized for not being able to recognize their repeated failures in this area if nothing else. They have tried for a dozen years to draft a “Lucic” and failed EVERY TIME.

  81. spoiler says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Not a fan of drafting guys who don’t have offensive numbers that suggest they’ll be a top 6 forward.Bottom six guys are more easily available every year in the UFA market.

    Unfortunately for us all, 90% of a draft’s prospects project to the bottom 6.

  82. ASkoreyko says:

    DSF: I’m sure you’re aware Lucic was picked 50th not 32nd.

    I’m also sure you’re also aware that Lucic scored 30 goals and 68 points +32 in his final junior year.

    Moroz wil have to really blossom quickly and be NHL ready a year from now to be in that conversation.

    The Oilers talked about the fact that they did not think Moroz would be around until the early 3rd round. When you only have one pick in the 2nd round you take the player you want regardless of the spread within that round. You could take a risk and see if you can trade down but the difference in talent between 8-10 spots in the 2nd round surely can’t be that great can it?

    The Oilers are in the perfect position to know exactly what type of season Moroz will have next year with the OK’s. They will have the inside info on exactly how Moroz was being deployed and exactly what role was expected of him this last season, perhaps they know there is room for improvement by simply changing his role on the team.

    Moroz had a better draft year that Lucic, why can’t he also have a similar increase in scoring the following year?

    I am not saying I totally agree with the pick, but I can at least understand the reasoning behind it.

  83. FastOil says:

    I see the failure at this draft in the lack of creativity and inability to meet even their own stated objectives. Putting the power forward myth aside, the Oilers failed to put themselves in a position to get the better ones. They should have been working on acquiring picks as soon as last season was lost, which gave them an awful lot of time.

    Some will say maybe other teams were asking too much, etc. etc. At the end of the day, over these last years not much has happened at the draft or in the summer. I see other teams make well struck deals whose initials aren’t CBJ or EDM. If the team is too small and needs some big body skill, was no other team interested in Pelss, Reider, Omark? Or AHL allstar Plante or MPS? I find that hard to believe.

    They could have had Samuelsson, and Moroz too if they really wanted him. I just wish they’d stop stalling and pissing around and get the type of players they want in place and let’s see if they’re right or not.

  84. DeadmanWaking says:

    Couldn’t help after my last post recalling this discussion about over-valuing rubber tomahawks and generally how to teach children the true value of money.

    Owen on Parenting, Money, and the First National Bank of Dad

    Guest: There was a situation where we went with some friends to a souvenir store and one of the other children, who was a close friend of my son, made a big scene. There was a rubber tomahawk.

    Russ: Some hideous thing that they had to have. Until they have to pay for it. Then it’s–

    Guest: Exactly. And he got it. He made enough of a scene that his father decided that the simplest thing would be to cave; the thrill of the hunt was over and the child lost interest in the tomahawk, which then immediately broke. But my son knew that it was futile to get into that sort of conversation with me because he had his own money, and he slowly and carefully studied the very unpromising merchandise in this store, and then he actually decided that he wanted to buy an unopened geode for $.33.

    Russ: A stone.

    Guest: Right. So he could crack it open. A stone with jewel-like crystals inside it. The geodes were actually selling 3 for a dollar, but he actually negotiated with the woman who ran the store; he wanted her to break up a set and sell him just one of them for $.33, because he thought the two extras were superfluous. And I didn’t take any part in that negotiation. And he succeeded. She sold him one geode for $.33, and that was what he spent. I’m sure that if I’d been willing to buy him a tomahawk he would have been happy to have one of those, too. But because it was his money he was much more thoughtful.

    Professional economists are far more likely to work backward from behaviour to price (if the prices are hidden) than to work from a confounded price signal toward judgements of competence. We sometimes extend our management team less credit than David Owen’s seven year old in managing our precious assets wisely.

    Wisdom of the average schmo: If it’s too good to be true, it probably is.

    Wisdom of the dismal economist: If it’s too obvious to be missed, it probably wasn’t.

    The problem with Russ Roberts is that he thinks batshit is confined to government. He’s a sports fan, too, yet still he persists in believing this.

  85. franksterra says:

    No stats here, just observation overlaid with instinct. I’d say a lot of “really valuable” 3rd line types, the kind we hope Lander, Moroz, Ewanyk, etc. become in 3-4 years, are acquired by trade. Often as components of bigger deals (e.g., Simmonds, B. Sutter yesterday). Teams can do those deals only once they have a lot of talent and depth. These players are given up reluctantly by GMs and fans, but they’re part of the price in getting Richards, J. Staal, etc. We don’t have any of them right now. Two years from now we may be able to get 1 or 2, by trading one of the Big Four, or an ideally developed Petry.

  86. Captain Obvious says:

    The Moroz pick is indefensible. You can’t take a project based upon organizational need when there is first round talent left on the board.

    You guys are seriously underestimating how much of an overdraft Moroz was. It was one of the three worst picks in the entire draft. It wasn’t simply ordinary, or mediocre, it was the mark of a team actively trying to lose.

    I stand by my statement. The NHL is filled with people who are horrible at their jobs.

  87. Marc says:

    asiaoil:
    You never draft a guy like Moroz this high as you can ALWAYS trade brains (top 6 skill) for muscle (bottom 6 grinders).

    Yeah. I mean teams have been banging down the door begging us to take big checking forwards for Omark.

  88. asiaoil says:

    …and just to emphasize the epic 2nd round failure. What did “real” defensemen like Lubo and Michalek – you know the kind of guys this team desperately needs – get traded for yesterday? Less than the 2nd round pick the Oilers just paid for a reach pick with 3rd line upside. From both a value drafting and an asset mgmt perspective this was a massive fail – and we’ve seen it happen almost every year for over a decade. Real players were left on the board to draft Paukovich, McDonald, JFJ, Winchester etc etc etc. Dumb kids simply don’t learn.

  89. DSF says:

    ASkoreyko: The Oilers talked about the fact that they did not think Moroz would be around until the early 3rd round. When you only have one pick in the 2nd round you take the player you want regardless of the spread within that round. You could take a risk and see if you can trade down but the difference in talent between 8-10 spots in the 2nd round surely can’t be that great can it?

    The Oilers are in the perfect position to know exactly what type of season Moroz will have next year with the OK’s. They will have the inside info on exactly how Moroz was being deployed and exactly what role was expected of him this last season, perhaps they know there is room for improvement by simply changing his role on the team.

    Moroz had a better draft year that Lucic, why can’t he also have a similar increase in scoring the following year?

    I am not saying I totally agree with the pick, but I can at least understand the reasoning behind it.

    Every projection I’ve seen thus far (Matheson, McCurdy) indicates he’ll likely need two more years in junior and a year in the AHL before making his NHL debut.

    While development is never a straight line, drafting is all about making smart bets and, when you’re drafting 32nd, it should be a bet with very good odds.

    IMO, this is not the type of player that you worry about being gone since, as stated above and amplified by Asiaoil, you can always find this type of player in many other ways.

    I expect we should keep an eye on Matt Finn as the “one that got away”

    Finn Scored 10 goals and 48 points in HIS draft year.

    Woodlief had him going at #20 and described him as one of the smartest two way players in the draft.

    McKenzie had him ranked #21 and had this to say:

    “Matthew is not going to show up in highlight videos on any type of a regular basis. It’s not in his game to be flashy but it is his game to be incredibly effective. That effectiveness translates into every area of the game and all of its situations. Simply put, he is a player who completes plays. He does it with the puck. Defensively in getting the puck out of danger. Offensively in reading the play and getting the puck to areas where his team can attack. He is superb in transition and can do it skating with the puck or passing the puck. He does it without the puck. He has very good body positioning and stick position where he can keep opponents at bay. His skating is strong in all regards and he asserts with his body & with excellent lower body strength and balance, he’s a hard player to gain an advantage on. He has excellent sense and understands what is unfolding and what the appropriate response should be. He has great poise playing and the challenges of the game do not faze him in any way. He is a player who makes teams stronger.”

    McKenzie had Moroz ranked #56.

    Maybe the Oilers brain trust are the smartest guys in the room but we have little evidence to support that notion.

  90. DeadmanWaking says:

    Big Power Forward Could be Draft Day Surprise

    Moroz is a tempting physical package. He could be considered somewhat of a WHL answer to Tom Wilson, the rugged Plymouth Whalers forward who’s likely to be a first-round NHL pick thanks somewhat in part to the rarity of his skill

    Tom Wilson is a bruising, 6-foot-3, 203-pound Canadian picked 16th by Washington.

    Caps draft pick Tom Wilson an intriguing blend

    Caps general manager George McPhee remembered watching one of his team’s playoff games this spring and scribbling a note to himself afterwards: “Remember these games when you’re at the draft. Remember how intense they are, how physical they are, how demanding they are. And make sure you get someone who wants to play in that kind of stuff.”

    “There’s a chance [Wilson] can be a pretty effective player,” McPhee told reporters in Pittsburgh. “When you get a guy that can play and he’s tough too – it’s a harder and harder thing to find in our game now. But this guy might be able to do it.”

    Have we joined the Boston bubble, or is this a sign of the times?

  91. spoiler says:

    Red Line on Moroz:

    Big, edgy power forward plays an in-your-face style and looks to initiate hard contact all over the ice. A feared enforcer who picked up 20 fighting majors, yet skates and handles the puck well enough to take regular shifts. Coaches eventually rotated him into the top six to give scoring lines a boost – gives smaller, skilled linemates more room to work with his physicality. Has surprising offensive tools with a heavy snap shot. Puckhandling confidence is soaring and he’s willing to try things with the puck now he wouldn’t have dreamed of six months ago. Skating enables him to play in open ice and even has decent lateral agility. Spins off checks to find space and gets to open ice. Emerging force uses great size/strength to dominate below the circles and is impossible to move around crease. Development curve is heading straight up and has upside.

  92. Captain Obvious says:

    Wilson was a major reach as well. He has disappointment written all over him, especially considering the talent that was taken behind him. It’s a failure of reason. Faced with the difficulty of finding large players that can play teams react by drafting overvaluing large players whether or not they can play.

    What is difficult is finding players that can play. Teams make their job even more difficult when they focus on the size variable at the expense of the “can play” variable.

    It’s mindboggling stupid since size is so obviously unnecessary. You don’t need size on your first line and you don’t need size on your fourth line. You don’t need size period. You need guys who can go and get the puck and small but solid guys can do this just as well. Speed and quickness beats size every single time. The best fourth line player in the playoffs was Stephen Gionta.

  93. FastOil says:

    Captain Obvious:
    The Moroz pick is indefensible.You can’t take a project based upon organizational need when there is first round talent left on the board.

    You guys are seriously underestimating how much of an overdraft Moroz was.It was one of the three worst picks in the entire draft.It wasn’t simply ordinary, or mediocre, it was the mark of a team actively trying to lose.

    I stand by my statement.The NHL is filled with people who are horrible at their jobs.

    Agreed. It would be easier to stomach for me if they could at least do a good job of executing bad ideas – at least move up and get the better alleged PF.

  94. Ribs says:

    …skates and handles the puck well enough to take regular shifts

    Hah. Great pick.

    I’m still just happy they picked Yakupov. Anything else is gravy. I just can’t get too worked up about it, even when the Wings took the guy I was hoping for (Frk).

  95. jonrmcleod says:

    Ribs,

    Drafting Frk would have meant too many potential bad puns from Principe.

  96. FPB94 says:

    So JFJ was 1/2 PPG and he couldn’t open a bag of chips with his hands, and he proceded to suck in the NHL.

    Now we draft the same dude, with less disciplin and 1/3 PPG.

    Oh wow.

    Why is it that when i launched a super campaign against dudes under the PPG bar (PPG-5) I was thrown bananas, and now that we take a dude like this. (In the ”I hope we get the Lucic Miracle again” people explode ? ( Don’t get me wrong, this pick is putrid)

  97. Ribs says:

    jonrmcleod,

    Good point. Avoided!

  98. Thiru says:

    It’s inexcusable.

    Read Tambo’s comments on the second round.

    We’re cheering for dummies here, right? We agree on that? I mean, yeah, Stu drafted Eberle once and he’s now God, the same way that Barry Fraser once drafted Messier and is and forever will be…oh wait.

    You know, while the Oilers flounder with The Triumvirate of Suck, other teams — the good ones, namely, but increasingly a few others — are hiring bright hockey minds who have a plan that extends a few steps beyond tanking and not addressing long-standing personnel needs.

    The new class of management in pro sports pores over statistics, employs more scouts with proven track records (see Blue Jays), and find new ways to squeeze more wins out of less, year after year after year (see Rays). This is what it has come to: while the wheat of the NHL plays chess, and the chaff play checkers, the Oilers are playing paper-rock-scissors.

    Look at the draft the Canadians had this year. When was the last time the Oilers had a draft that felt that good? How about a trade deadline, or an off-season? When was the last time you saw the Oilers do something and said to yourself, “Gosh damn, they do have a plan.”

    As far as I’m concerned, the “M” in MBS can stand for mediocre.

    We would be truly fortunate if the dreks comprising the remainder of this management regime could momentarily rise above their stuporous inanity to reach so dazzling a height.

  99. Chris says:

    But he had some many things the Oilers like, size, grit, intangibles. He’s a good Alberta boy and wanted to be an Oiler. If he’d had a father or at least an uncle who was previously an Oiler we’d have picked Moroz fist over Yakapov.

  100. FPB94 says:

    Chris,

    Can we draft Macintyre so no one’s gonna be able to sign him ?

  101. spoiler says:

    Ribs:
    …skates and handles the puck well enough to take regular shifts

    Hah. Great pick.

    I’m still just happy they picked Yakupov. Anything else is gravy. I just can’t get too worked up about it, even when the Wings took the guy I was hoping for (Frk).

    Yeah, he’s just fine. The Oil have nothing like him in the organization and taking a player you really want about 10-15 spots ahead of where he ranks is certainly no sin. Detroit GM Holland has stated in the past that he will even take a player a round early if he thinks the player goes before they can get him.

    We know the combo of strength, toughness and skating is rare and highly-valued around the league. If your scout is telling you this kid has as much a chance of making it as the other prospects left, which is pretty poor ass by the second round in any case, this roll of the dice makes as much sense as any other. More sense actually, because we’ve already rolled the dice on the other tables and picked up our Gernats and Rieders and Simpsons.

  102. FPB94 says:

    Spoiler : C’mon now.

    There’s like only 1 guy who’s valuable at the NHL and scored at that rate.

  103. jonrmcleod says:

    Thiru,

    But the Orioles (with bad ownership and bad management for years) are ahead of the Rays and Jays right now. (That probably doesn’t prove anything, but just wanted to throw it in.)

  104. jonrmcleod says:

    spoiler,

    I’d be curious to read the comments on this blog from previous drafts. How many were critical of the Marincin, Gernat, etc. picks on those draft days? I’m not saying this guy will become something great, but, let’s be honest, none of us knows how this draft will look in 5 years.

  105. FPB94 says:

    JONRMCLEOD: I’ve searched every single draft pick since 1975. The only man to have such low scoring and become somethign relevant in the decade is Milan Lucic. The others are maybe 2-3 across 40 years of hockey.

    Let’s say it’s a VERY shitty bet. With Defensemen offensive progression isn’t as clear, but with Forwards it’s a lot.

    People loved to Marincin/Gernat picks.

  106. PaperDesigner says:

    The big problem is that they had enough to get Moroz later, but they simply chose not to.

    This team doesn’t need more big players, it needs more good players. And going against BPA to take a guy that is huge and kinda knows which net he’s supposed to shoot at failed them, repeatedly, less than a decade ago.

  107. Captain Obvious says:

    spoiler,

    Your mistake is thinking that scouts are qualified to identify who will, or won’t, be an NHL player. But experience has demonstrated, both in the NHL and MLB, that scouts aren’t very good at predicting who will, or won’t, make it. Since we know this is true, to compound this difficulty by actively ignoring talent as a determining variable in the equation is to an act of stupidity.

    It’s like they’ve decided that since it is impossible to predict who will make it we might as well draft someone big so that if they do, through some mystical quality, end up having ability they’ll also be big.

  108. jonrmcleod says:

    If Colten Tuebert had slid into the 2nd round in 2008, everyone would have been screaming, “Draft him! That’s a great value pick!” But if the Oilers had selected Adam Henrique (who went in the 3rd round), fans would be saying, “Terrible pick. Could have had picked him in the next round.”

    By the way, the Oilers didn’t have a 2nd round pick in 2008. It belonged to the Ducks who drafted Justin Schultz.

  109. FPB94 says:

    JohnR: That guy was probably projected 5th round or so. That and he’s terrible.

    Henrique was actually a legit junior player. As was Teubert.

  110. jonrmcleod says:

    FPB94,

    Perhaps you’re right. I’ll be honest, I don’t know. We’ll see. The big picture is that the Oilers have (in most people’s minds) the top player in the draft and only need a couple of the others to pan out to make it a great draft.

  111. spoiler says:

    FPB94:
    Spoiler : C’mon now.

    There’s like only 1 guy who’s valuable at the NHL andscored at that rate.

    FPB:

    C’mon now. You don’t really expect me to take the opinion of a 20 year old college student over that of the research of experienced professionals, do you?

    And you do know the pick, no matter who they took, is a low percentage dice roll, right? That’s why teams start to pick for organizational needs and wants by the end of the 1st round.

    People here are arguing they’d rather have the 15 per cent chancer over the 14 per cent. (Or worse, a guy with higher upside and even lower chance of making it). And they’re only doing it to goal seek management stupidity, since they can’t stop hammering that theme.

    I did like your bag of chips line. Kudos for that bit of inspired writing. Seriously.

  112. ashley says:

    The second pick is not as big of a deal as we’re making it out to be. To give equal drama to each of these picks is folly. LT sometimes posts the probability of players making it from each round. The chance of a player making it in round 2 is poor, and the chance of him being an impact player is dismal.

    This is the part of the draft where you find players that will play on your minor team for years, bounce up and down on the fourth line, or perhaps stick on the fourth line and score 10-15 points a year in the NHL.

    There are always guys with good stats picked at this point, but most of them don’t make it. So to make out like they just blew the first overall pick is not fair.

    So they pick someone who will probably bounce around in the minors and maybe make the NHL, but perhaps they think he’ll have a better shot at making it if he has some grit and size. A reasonable line of thinking, in my view.

    The real skill was long gone by pick #32. It’s usually long gone by #20, and even the 10-20 picks are not in the same league as the 3-10 picks, and then the 1-2 picks are usually in a world of their own beyond that (although this year only the first pick was so).

    Will there be a diamond that shines through from the second round? Probably, but predicting who that will a priori is beyond difficult, and no scouting team seems able to do it consistently.

    The Oilers didn’t gamble with 1OV, and that should be commended. Gambling in rounds 2 and beyond is not unreasonable given the odds.

  113. ashley says:

    The media was badly misled for the 1OV pick. Tencer, Dreger, and Stauffer’s contacts in the organization were telling them 100% Murray. Even LT’s inside contact was telling him Murray. My contacts the same.

    Matheson was able to break the news of Yakupov 100%, but only with 10 minutes left to draft. I can see him and Bob Brown having a conversation with Matheson begging him to tell him the truth that it was Yakupov. He needed to shore up his reputation. Bob Brown (or whoever) probably thought, “what the hell, we’re only 10 mintues away”, and then Matheson let the twitter go for the scoop.

    The information from the organization has never been held this tightly before. MSM used to have wide open contact to insider stuff. It’s a different media era.

  114. FPB94 says:

    spoiler,

    Most of the guys have as much relevant experience as i do. Sadly. And that’s a major sophism right there. Those guys don’t have any credential outside of playing, watching, and organizing hockey (for the majority), that’s things a lot of guys do around here.

    It’s not a 15 vs 14 chance. It’s a damn 15% vs 0,1%. Go find me some other guy (than Lucic) who was relevant in the NHL with that Junior production.

    If you’re going to make stupid decisions just for the hell of it, we might just have to dig holes with our hands.

  115. DSF says:

    Thiru,

    Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie

    Luke Schenn traded to PHI for James van Riemsdyk.

  116. Gerta Rauss says:

    I
    FPB94,

    I’ll second the kudos on the bag of chips line.

  117. Traktor says:

    Good trade for both teams.

    Philadelphia is perfect environment for Schenn and Burke acquires another American.

    Extra bonus to Toronto for freeing up a spot for Schultz. Smart.

    Really like this from Toronto when you factor in they spent their first 2 picks on D.

  118. Marc says:

    spoiler

    People here are arguing they’d rather have the 15 per cent chancer over the 14 per cent.(Or worse, a guy with higher upside and even lower chance of making it). And they’re only doing it to goal seek management stupidity, since they can’t stop hammering that theme.

    Indeed.

    And it’s also worth remembering that this isn’t considered a good draft. The consensus top D projects to be a 2 or a 3 in the NHL. That’s the best one. All the other D either project to about the same but are considered more likely not to make it, or project to be 4, 5, 6 D in the NHL. The best center projects to be a very good 2 and only five forwards – Yakupov, Galchenyuk, Grigorenko, Forsberg and Tarevainen – are considered to be likely top six players in the NHL. Every other forward in the draft either projects to be a bottom six player, or has a good chance of not making it to the NHL at all.

    This is the ‘talent’ that the Oilers passed on. Moroz probably won’t amount to much. The odds are very much against it. But the odds are also against any of the ‘talent’ that the Oilers passed on amounting to much, so it’s hard to see why people are getting so excited.

  119. FPB94 says:

    Marc: Last year was supposed to be a ”weak” draft. It looks like one of the best ever.

    A 90 point kid was drafted late 1st round.

  120. spoiler says:

    Ashley gets it.

  121. Woodguy says:

    DSF: LOL.

    Why would you opt for an 18 year old “power forward” at 32nd overall when you can find one either much later in the draft or on the open market?

    Let’s look at just one comparable although there are many like Dwight King (4th round) Jordan Nolan (7th round) who come immediately to mind.

    Dave Bolland was also selected 32nd overall in the 2004 draft.

    In his final year in junior, Bolland scored 57 goals and 130 points with the London Knights.

    In his final year in junior, Morozscored 16 goals and 25 points with the Oil Kings.

    I would think Moroz is much closer as a prospect to King or Nolan than he is to Bolland.

    Why are you comparing Bolland’s 20 year old year to Moroz’s 18 year old year?

    Bolland was 65gp 37g 30a 67pts in his 18 year old year.

    Still miles beyond Moroz, but at lease compare the right years.

  122. Woodguy says:

    ashley:
    The second pick is not as big of a deal as we’re making it out to be.To give equal drama to each of these picks is folly.LT sometimes posts the probability of players making it from each round.The chance of a player making it in round 2 is poor, and the chance of him being an impact player is dismal.

    This is the part of the draft where you find players that will play on your minor team for years, bounce up and down on the fourth line, or perhaps stick on the fourth line and score 10-15 points a year in the NHL.

    There are always guys with good stats picked at this point, but most of them don’t make it.So to make out like they just blew the first overall pick is not fair.

    So they pick someone who will probably bounce around in the minors and maybe make the NHL, but perhaps they think he’ll have a better shot at making it if he has some grit and size.A reasonable line of thinking, in my view.

    The real skill was long gone by pick #32.It’s usually long gone by #20, and even the 10-20 picks are not in the same league as the 3-10 picks, and then the 1-2 picks are usually in a world of their own beyond that (although this year only the first pick was so).

    Will there be a diamond that shines through from the second round?Probably, but predicting who that will a priori is beyond difficult, and no scouting team seems able to do it consistently.

    The Oilers didn’t gamble with 1OV, and that should be commended.Gambling in rounds 2 and beyond is not unreasonable given the odds.

    Yay for reasonableness!!!

    Nice post.

  123. spoiler says:

    FPB94:
    Marc: Last year was supposed to be a ”weak” draft. It looks like one of the best ever.

    A 90 point kid was drafted late 1st round.

    The number of over-agers taken, which might be a modern record, demonstrates how weak this year’s class of newly eligibles was. And even in strong years we’re talking about gambles and good luck at this point of the draft.

  124. Woodguy says:

    DeadmanWaking: Black-Scholes

    Black-Scholes and horny teenagers in the same post.

    Top drawer stuff DMW.

  125. FPB94 says:

    Spoiler: Go Check out the record of Minnesota/Edmonton in late rounds. Go Check out Montreal.

    Of course it’s always lower odds in the later rounds. But it stacks up over time. Organizations who make intelligent pick in the later rounds usually get to keep their top pick longer since they don’t have to pay the low lines guys much, since they have backup.

    Considering guys like Subban, Galiardi, Simmonds, O’Reilly, Clifford, Voynov, Stepan, Hamonic have made it recently and are important parts of their team, I think it’s just silly to throw away a pick like that.

    It’s not like you’re gambling against attitude or a flaw in his game, you’re betting against sour milk becoming consumable again.

  126. spoiler says:

    DSF:
    Thiru,

    Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie

    Luke Schenn traded to PHI for James van Riemsdyk.

    Damn, I was hoping we could swing JVR, mentioned him as a trade possibility a few times. Great trade for Burkie. The bastard.

  127. FPB94 says:

    Even then, you can get 204 guys of the ”in and out of the minors” type for a 2nd round pick. So investing a pick in this type of guys is just a waste.

    No one should be hung for the pick. But it’s becoming a recurring (and silly) trend. (3rd, 3rd, 2nd)

  128. Henry says:

    The thing with Moroz is that they saw him every game this year, and they had all night to make the decision on the guy. Either they are 1) myopic 2) stupid or 3) they know the guy well and he’s got something they are convinced is valuable enough to beat the 6:1 odds against making it.

  129. DSF says:

    Woodguy: Why are you comparing Bolland’s 20 year old year to Moroz’s 18 year old year?

    Bolland was 65gp 37g 30a 67pts in his 18 year old year.

    Still miles beyond Moroz, but at lease compare the right years.

    Bolland was born on June 5 1986.

    In his 20 year old season, 2006/07, he played for the Norfolk Admirals scoring 17 goals and 49 points.

    In his 17 year old season, 2003/04, he scored 37 goals and 67 points

    In his 18 year old season, 2004/05, he scored 34 goals and 85 points.

    in his 19 year old season, 2005/06, he scored 57 goals and 130 points.

    There ya go Church Lady,.

  130. spoiler says:

    Henry:
    The thing with Moroz is that they saw him every game this year, and they had all night to make the decision on the guy.Either they are 1) myopic 2) stupid or 3) they know the guy well and he’s got something they are convinced is valuable enough to beat the 6:1 odds against making it.

    Or 4) They realized all the players available were at best 6:1 odds and they took the player type they didn’t have.

  131. FPB94 says:

    We require more scrubs to complete our megasctructure.

  132. DSF says:

    spoiler: Damn, I was hoping we could swing JVR, mentioned him as a trade possibility a few times. Great trade for Burkie. The bastard.

    Say what you will about Burke, but he doesn’t sit on his hands.

  133. Henry says:

    spoiler: Or 4) They realized all the players available were at best 6:1 odds and they took the player type they didn’t have.

    Right you are. A combination of all four. Plus he has a great hockey name.

  134. Henry says:

    FPB94:
    We require more scrubs to complete our megasctructure.

    You have some great lines going son, can I get you to write my grant?

  135. FPB94 says:

    Henry,

    I wish I could do this more often. Sadly i’m not the man, the legend, Steve Smith.

    I’m just puzzled as to why you’d draft a guy you don’t expect to exceed the value of the pick you used on him. Just trade the 2nd for a worthy player.

  136. regwald says:

    Thiru:

    The new class of management in pro sports pores over statistics, employs more scouts with proven track records (see Blue Jays), and find new ways to squeeze more wins out of less, year after year after year (see Rays). This is what it has come to: while the wheat of the NHL plays chess, and the chaff play checkers, the Oilers are playing paper-rock-scissors.

    So, if you want to talk about the new management and use of advanced stats, etc how impressed are you with Feaster’s weekend ? First trading down in the first round and then taking some kid rated 40-something by TSN who played high school hockey in Quebec ?

    Ya, they use advanced stats in Calgary and wow, they are kicking everyone’s ass at the draft.

    I don’t disagree you need to view stats and analyze and then add in some good old common sense, but I am sure glad I was not a Flames fan yesterday.

  137. FPB94 says:

    Regwald: I’m pretty sure not advanced stats has been made out of drafting HS kids out of QC.

    Especially since no one worth shit still plays HS at that age.

  138. Traktor says:

    13 different teams have made roster trades in the last 2 days.. and some of those teams have made more than one move.

    Probably just a coincidence that Tambellini hasn’t moved yet.

  139. regwald says:

    FPB94,

    Well, then I say paying for advanced stats guys and then ignoring them going off the board on this guy is being stupid twice. Once for wasting money on the stats guy and twice for trying to prove you are the smartest guy in the room. Maybe 3 times if you consider trading down another offence.

  140. Henry says:

    FPB94:
    Henry,

    I wish I could do this more often. Sadly i’m not the man, the legend, Steve Smith.

    I’m just puzzled as to why you’d draft a guy you don’t expect to exceed the value of the pick you used on him. Just trade the 2nd for a worthy player.

    Maybe Derek Laxdal called up the management guys four times last night and said ‘ You got to take my guy! He’s not going to make it to the next round. He’s got a heart bigger than Secretariat!” Shit happens especially when there are relationships in the org. Sometimes it works out well. Maybe he’s a heck of a player.

    I agree with you that there probably were better bets out there. Like Frk or the defenseman Finn that TSN seemed to have a lot of highlights for.

  141. FPB94 says:

    regwald,

    I certainly agree with that.

  142. regwald says:

    Traktor:
    13 different teams have made roster trades in the last 2 days.. and some of those teams have made more than one move.

    Probably just a coincidence that Tambellini hasn’t moved yet.

    Oh come on … Tambo left Edmonton and went all the way to Pittsburgh without anyone holding his hand. Now that’s he’s probably home, that’s like two big moves …

    I think we can all say that unless Whitney now has a bionic ankle, Schultz falls into Tambo’s lap, we are now waiting for that cluster of drafted dmen to come of age to save the Oilers blue line … sad, sad, sad

  143. Captain Obvious says:

    spoiler: Or 4) They realized all the players available were at best 6:1 odds and they took the player type they didn’t have.

    That’s exactly what they did and it was monumentally stupid.

  144. Rondo says:

    Now would be a good time to go after Kulemin, Toronto has just acquired another winger.

  145. FastOil says:

    Captain Obvious,

    C O do you think it would have been a better idea to use the second and trade up to get Samuelsson etc?

  146. Traktor says:

    Captain Obvious: That’s exactly what they did and it was monumentally stupid.

    You said a few days ago that 2nd round picks are useless. You don’t get a vote on Edmonton’s picks.

  147. Traktor says:

    regwald:
    I think we can all say that unless Whitney now has a bionic ankle, Schultz falls into Tambo’s lap, we are now waiting for that cluster of drafted dmen to come of age to save the Oilers blue line … sad, sad, sad

    I doubt we get Schultz. Burke originally drafted him, he is friends with Gardiner, and Toronto just opened up a spot for a RH D.

  148. regwald says:

    Traktor: I doubt we get Schultz. Burke originally drafted him, he is friends with Gardiner, and Toronto just opened up a spot for a RH D.

    Kinda my point … there is little faith that the Oilers dmen are going to be better this winter than they were last winter.

  149. Ducey says:

    Captain Obvious: That’s exactly what they did and it was monumentally stupid.

    If you were as smart as you say you are, you’d know running around calling everyone stupid makes you look like an idiot.

  150. Woodguy says:

    DSF: Bolland was born on June 5 1986.

    In his 20 year old season, 2006/07, he played for the Norfolk Admirals scoring 17 goals and 49 points.

    In his 17 year old season, 2003/04, he scored 37 goals and 67 points

    In his 18 year old season, 2004/05, he scored 34 goals and 85 points.

    in his 19 year old season, 2005/06, he scored 57 goals and 130 points.

    There ya go Church Lady,.

    I meant Moroz’s draft year, with Bolland’s year 2 years after his draft year.

  151. Woodguy says:

    DSF: Say what you will about Burke, but he doesn’t sit on his hands.

    Great trade by Burke.

  152. spoiler says:

    Reading through TSN tweets:

    Apparently the Oil talked to Phoenix about Yandle, but the price was too high.

    Rishaug thinks we might be in play for Hjalmarsson.

    Sure would be nice if we had a head coach before we had to talk to Schultz’s agent. I mean that would be helpful, wouldn’t it?

  153. regwald says:

    spoiler:
    Reading through TSN tweets:

    Apparently the Oil talked to Phoenix about Yandle, but the price was too high.

    Not sure if I saw it from McKenzie or Dregger, but one of those two claims that Phoenix has taken Yandle off the trade block. I would assume due to the lack of interest in paying their price.

  154. gogliano says:

    FPB94:
    spoiler,

    Most of the guys have as much relevant experience as i do. Sadly. And that’s a major sophism right there. Those guys don’t have any credential outside of playing, watching, and organizing hockey (for the majority), that’s things a lot of guys do around here.

    It’s not a 15 vs 14 chance. It’s a damn 15% vs 0,1%.Go find me some other guy (than Lucic) who was relevant in the NHL with that Junior production.

    If you’re going to make stupid decisions just for the hell of it, we might just have to dig holes with our hands.

    I don’t think sophism means what you think it means.

    - In memory of “Steve Smith”

  155. Marc says:

    Woodguy: Great trade by Burke.

    Did he?

    JVR has never had more than 40 points in a season in the NHL and has a total of 99 points in his three seasons in the NHL. And he’s signed long term at $4.5M per season.

    He’s traded a player who’s way overpaid for what he does, but is young enough to get better, for a better player, but one who is even more overpaid for what he does (and who is also young enough to get better).

    I’d score this one a draw.

  156. Captain Obvious says:

    Traktor: You said a few days ago that 2nd round picks are useless. You don’t get a vote on Edmonton’s picks.

    There are degrees of uselessness. They are useless compared to actual NHL players. Matt Finn, for instance, is relatively useless in comparison to Vishnovsky. Moroz, on the other hand, is useless on an absolute scale.

    Now to a certain extent it hardly matters. In comparison to turning Omark into nothing this is a small crime. But crimes add up. The Oilers have been gifted the first overall pick three years in a row. A explosive, dominant, team should be a guarantee and we’re still staring at a fourth lottery pick in a row.

    But this is small potatoes compared to the forthcoming trade for a D. That will tell the tale.

    FastOil:
    Captain Obvious,

    C O do you think it would have been a better idea to use the second and trade up to get Samuelsson etc?

    I do. However, that’s on a relative scale. Trading up is a bad idea in almost all instances. However, trading up to get a good player is better than staying pat and drafting a bad player.

    Woodguy: Great trade by Burke.

    He’s had a good two days. Great first round pick and good second round pick and then the trade. Van Riemsdyk is overpaid but so is Schenn and Van Riesmskyk has upside.

  157. FPB94 says:

    gogliano,

    I do. Figure of authority. Or perceived authority. As there’s no way to surely verify their credentials it sure damn qualifies.

    They’re NOT PHD’s.

  158. Henry says:

    FPB94:
    gogliano,

    I do. Figure of authority. Or perceived authority. As there’s no way to surely verify their credentials it sure damn qualifies.

    They’re NOT PHD’s.

    I don’t know. Sophistry might be behind the Murray rumours going on yesterday. Maybe they are smarter than we think (now that MacT is around). Maybe they were flushing out Tracy Lane. Or just building a story to keep us interested. I certainly annoyed my wife watching the draft all night last night.

  159. gogliano says:

    FPB94:
    gogliano,

    I do. Figure of authority. Or perceived authority. As there’s no way to surely verify their credentials it sure damn qualifies.

    They’re NOT PHD’s.

    I was just trying to be clever but a sophism is something that appears clever or insightful but is actually specious. There also tends to be connotations of deceit/unseemliness to the term (owing to its origins). E.g., Protagoras’ claim that “man is the measure of all things” could be considered a sophism.

    It might be something that is used a little differently in French, I don’t know.

  160. mattwatt says:

    I am perplexed a bit by the outrage over who the Oilers selected in the 2nd round. It is a bit of a reach yes, but they did not take a kid from hundreds spots back. They took a kid likely 15 spots before his name would be called. Is this difference really something that management should be villified for? Yes there were surer things to be had then, but this choice was not from Mars. They drafted someone with size and grit who could possibly turn into a player. Is this thinking so bad?

    More I read comments on Lowetide, the more I wonder how many of us Oiler fans would have been good punks. I know that this management has made a lot of missteps over the last few years, and they deserve to be vilified for those. Yet anything that can slightly be miscontrued by them is by those who follow this team. Yes, we all would have make good punk rockers for often as fans of this team, we don’t care what we are mad about, as long as we are mad about something.

    Now Tambo sure as hell better make sure he gets that top 4 defensemen this year or I will be some pissed. (I truthfully mean that).

  161. FPB94 says:

    gogliano,

    Probably it.

    Sophism are means to deceive people. Mechanism to make things look right even if it’s not.

    EX: Saying someone’s wrong on a topic, because he’s a dick. Even if he’s not a nice guy that doesn’t make him further from the truth.

  162. spoiler says:

    Tambellini told reporters today that he was in the market for another defenseman, if they can get a deal done. Hjalmarsson is a big, smooth-skating, minute-munching defensive defenseman, at 25 just hitting his prime. Smid like guy, I suppose. Probably too much on the well-paid side of life, but he’s a guy who can play good D at the NHL level.

    If Chitown was willing to take say Omark and a 3rd, would you find room for this guy?

    He’s a lefty which is a problem although Schultz can play both sides.

  163. DSF says:

    Woodguy: I meant Moroz’s draft year, with Bolland’s year 2 years after his draft year.

    Moroz’ draft year screams 3rd round pick to me any way you slice it.

  164. Captain Obvious says:

    spoiler,

    Hjalmarsson for Omark and a third. I’d do that in a second. Hjalmarsson is a real NHL defensemen. He wouldn’t be the savior but he would be an upgrade.

  165. fuzzy muppet says:

    spoiler,

    Absolutely. With the deals that have been made already, it really seems to me that the “braintrust” is putting all their eggs in the schultz basket. Meanwhile defensemen are being moved for very marginal returns,

    By the time they realize that schultz isn’t coming ( especially after toronto moved schenn) they will have missed out on many primo opportunities.

    I really think they are trying to find a guy in the age range of the kids. Screw that. Puck up servicable guys to fill the gap until the prospects are ready. Sekaras, hjallmersson, bouwmeester, tyutin, etc.

    They need defensemen for next season so snap to it NOW

  166. godot10 says:

    If Hjalnarsson is the D coming, Gagner is the player going, with maybe a pick or a prospect coming the Oilers way to balance it out….NOT Omark and a 3rd.

    Hjalmarsson is a legit 2nd pairing defensive D.

  167. Woodguy says:

    DSF: Moroz’ draft year screams 3rd round pick to me any way you slice it.

    I never said anything to dispute that.

    You characterized Moroz’ s stats this year as “his last year in the WHL”

    You compared Bolland’s 19 year old year to Moroz’s 17 year old year.

    I simply pointed out the error in your comparison.

  168. franksterra says:

    godot10:
    If Hjalnarsson is the D coming, Gagner is the player going, with maybe a pick or a prospect coming the Oilers way to balance it out….NOT Omark and a 3rd.

    Hjalmarsson is a legit 2nd pairing defensive D.

    This sounds more like it.

    But

    Then Hall at C?

    And at LW…trade for Kulemin?

    Kulemin-Nuge-Ebs
    Harski-Hall-Hemmer
    MP/Smyth-Horc-Yak

  169. Woodguy says:

    Marc: Did he?

    JVR has never had more than 40 points in a season in the NHL and has a total of 99 points in his three seasons in the NHL.And he’s signed long term at $4.5M per season.

    He’s traded a player who’s way overpaid for what he does, but is young enough to get better, for a better player, but one who is even more overpaid for what he does (and who is also young enough to get better).

    I’d score this one a draw.

    Agreed that JVR is overpaid, but he never saw top 6 minutes on PHI and should be better when given those minutes and some PP time given his production in the minutes that he has had in the last 3 years.

    I think Schenn has had trouble adjusting to the NHL. Many blame his coach. I don’t know the reason.

    He hasn’t done well against 3rd pairing comp, so I don’t know if he’ll improve. He probably will, he’s still young, but he’s off to a rough start so projecting him to be a good 2nd pairing D involves a lot faith.

    To shorten it, I think JVR’s history shows the ability to contribute more with a larger role and I think Schenn’s history shows struggles with 3rd pairing comp, so I pick JVR to improve more immediately for his new team.

    They are both overpaid.

  170. godot10 says:

    Schenn for JVR is bad contract for bad contract involving two teams who in the end can afford to bury the bad contract, so it minimizes any new risk for both teams.

    I’m glad the Oilers didn’t fall for Schenn.

    JVR could be going to Columbus via Toronto. Howson/Patrick might not have wanted Schenn in the Nash deal, so Burke got them somebody they might like instead of Schenn.

  171. spoiler says:

    godot10:
    If Hjalnarsson is the D coming, Gagner is the player going, with maybe a pick or a prospect coming the Oilers way to balance it out….NOT Omark and a 3rd.

    Hjalmarsson is a legit 2nd pairing defensive D.

    Michalek took a 3rd and two shittier prospects than Omark. I presume that CHI are motivated sellers, since we’re hearing his name. If they aren’t, I’m hanging up the phone. There’s no way I’m trading Gagner for a somewhat overpaid defensive defenseman.

  172. spoiler says:

    JVR is a wonderful player. Size, speed and skill. Just needs to stay healthy. He is being paid on potential, but he’s got it.

  173. hockeyguy10 says:

    spoiler: Michalek took a 3rd and two shittier prospects than Omark. I presume that CHI are motivated sellers, since we’re hearing his name. If they aren’t, I’m hanging up the phone. There’s no way I’m trading Gagner for a somewhat overpaid defensive defenseman.

    As thin as Chicago’s defence was last year can’t really see him being available. Also he is overpaid because Chicago had to match an offer sheet from SJ a couple of years ago.

    As for the draft I am only disappointed that they didn’t take any centres. To me this is the biggest weakness on the Oilers. They have zero depth at this position.

  174. spoiler says:

    hockeyguy10: As thin as Chicago’s defence was last year can’t really see him being available. Also he is overpaid because Chicago had to match an offer sheet from SJ a couple of years ago.

    As for the draft I am only disappointed that they didn’t take any centres. To me this is the biggest weakness on the Oilers. They have zero depth at this position.

    Yeah, I’m surprised he’s available too, yet his name is out there. That salary may have something to do with it.

  175. FastOil says:

    Hjalmarsson – without looking at the stats sites I am not convinced about him. Looked like a weak link for Chi to me. He and Oduya were weak.

    Any decent D can move the puck to the right place. That is all it takes past making sure they retrieve the puck in the D zone. At the moment there is one superb offensive D – Doughty. “Puck moving” + defensive liability might work regular season but not in the playoff grind, especially if the more reliable D get hurt.

    Why did Maloney try to move Yandle?

  176. gd says:

    I think Chi thinks they can get Suter. Chicago is close to his hometown. They might be trying to shed salary. I think Hjarlmasson, Bolland and maybe even Seabrook are available for slight underpays.I’m hoping ST has Bowman on speed dial.

    I believe any D who played more than 20 min/gm last year would be in our top 4.

  177. Bruce McCurdy says:

    mattwatt: I am perplexed a bit by the outrage over who the Oilers selected in the 2nd round.

    Some people were all prepared to be outraged by the first round pick, but then when the Oilers shocked the shit out of them and got that one right, they latched on to the next best thing. Second round pick is a reach? OUTRAGE!

    Hands up, everybody who saw Mitch Moroz play more often than Stu MacGregor did. Me neither … I only saw him play about 20 games.

  178. FastOil says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Some people were all prepared to be outraged by the first round pick, but then when the Oilers shocked the shit out of them and got that one right, they latched on to the next best thing. Second round pick is a reach? OUTRAGE!

    Hands up, everybody who saw Mitch Moroz play more often than Stu MacGregor did. Me neither … I only saw him play about 20 games.

    I get what you’re saying. The problem isn’t that Moroz is a terrible hockey player. The problem is there were more talented players on the board. The Oilers didn’t maximize value, and to many this shows a misunderstanding of the draft.

    As far as I know V Ferrari started analyzing these things for Oiler fans first. The logic comes from probability and statistics. It is pretty hard to argue with. If the Oilers wanted Samuelsson or Moroz for size, they should have moved around to accomodate that wish, not go way off the board.

    They could have traded the best second round pick and got Samuelsson at the rightish position a few spots up (who is the better player anyway), or traded down and got another asset and taken Moroz, etc. The fact they can rarely accomplish player and draft pick moves shows somebody isn’t a good deal maker, or that they are misleading and not really trying.

    It has also been shown on various blogs that moving draft position rarely works anyway. A team should draft the BPA at every selection. Then these highest possible value assets should be traded for need. This is the piece missing from the Oilers and so evident with the last few Cup winners.

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