SPOILER ALERT!

Our friend spOILer always has a unique look at the draft and once again this year shares his list with us. Last season’s list is here.

Ladies and gentlemen, Spoiler.

SPOILER’S TOP 30 GUESSES aka “DRAFT RANKINGS”:

2012 — THE YEAR OF THE INJURY:

The defining characteristic of this draft class, for me, has been how little we know about these kids compared to most years. Scarcely a single top prospect avoided battle with some injury or illness this season.

For those that played through it, or came back before fully healing, we have no way of knowing how much the injury impacted their play. For those missing a significant chunk of games, we have no way of knowing the impact on development or ability.

I think there are a wide variety of outcomes possible for all of these players, including Yakupov, to both the upside and the downside. Which does not make this an easy draft for these teams, including the Oilers at #1 overall.

The ranking’s emphasis is on generating scoring, and the skills needed for doing so. Talent is more important than position played (but all things equal, I go C > D > W). As this is an NHL draft, I am trying to evaluate based on what I think NHL teams value, so battle and size will be a consideration, as will be the Russian Factor. I centrifuge all the data through my alcohol-addled brain until it has been churned into a clear and cogent analysis…

And then I look at my Nostradamus Lepton 2600 Full Service HD Crystal Ball and go with whatever it says.

It says the first tier is a tier of one prospect:

1. Nail Yakupov: The valedictorian of this year’s graduating class has a report card that includes a stunning combination of elite skating and hands that nearly mark off the charts I think once he’s through university and earned the degree, he’ll come in at somewhere between Hall and Stamkos, but closer to Hall of the two. This kid has a fabulous release on his wrist shot, better than Eberle’s or Hall’s, and he sports a mighty fine one-timer too. Vision and distribution are plus skills. Goes to the tough areas, likes to hit. Like Hall, if he maintains the same heavy traffic game, he may become an injury risk. Other issues are size, and consistency–especially after a string of injuries. Yak had a lacklustre playoffs–reports had him out-played by the recently returned Galchenyuk. But you know, if we remove the injuries to both players, we may have seen an historical season. I don’t think it is difficult for anyone to envision Yak scoring more points per game in that parallel universe, which would give him an NHLE quite a bit better than Hall’s.

There’s just too much buzz about this movie to not give him the Oscar. I hate to be a spoiler but the Nostra 2600 HD says the Oilers take him.

2. Alex Galchenyuk: Doesn’t quite have the offensive skillset that The Yak and Grigorenko possess. However he does have a motor that never stops running, brings the most drive and consistency to the rink out of the top 3 prospects, and is by far the most defensively accomplished. He has pro-size, excellent mobility without quite the top end speed of Yak and can distribute the puck . Doesn’t have the killer shot, but it is still very accurate. Desire, hard work and dedication are important factors in developing and improving as a player, and this kid tests well for all three. Over the long run, he might do more to help a team win hockey games than the two more talented wizards. He has less bust potential than Grigorenko, so I have him 2nd.

3. Mikhail Grigorenko: Doesn’t play the same dynamic up tempo game as Yak, but can control the tempo of the game far better than the other two top prospects. He can hold the puck under pressure without panic, wait for opportunities to develop, and then exploit them – a rare ability. His shot is just a tick below Yak’s, although he has a better backhander. Great reach and size. An effortless skater for a bigger kid. The knocks on Grigs are well-known – his play away from the puck especially in his own end, and bringing consistent efforts shift-to-shift. While Grigorenko can pull opposing players to him, he also likes the puck to come to him as well, rather than working on getting it. But I do think the accusations of a lazy nature are over-blown; I can’t see Roy would putting up with that. And having played through injury and mono, Grigs might be tougher and more dedicated than we think. If he drops below the top 5, he should be the steal of the draft.

4. Ryan Murray Plays a mature game beyond his years — composure, decision-making, reads are all off the charts. The kind of calm leader that makes the players around him better. Passes well under pressure. Tough to beat to the outside, because he’s an excellent skater in any direction. Murray has a smart low slapper that is perfect for shooting through traffic. He is not very assertive offensively, although he will jump into the play when the situation dictates. I think it is this mindset that has most scouts concerned about his offense, however the tools are there if Murray decides he wants to use them. Good size, and reputedly quite strong, Murray doesn’t lay big hits but can clear the crease and pin forwards to the wall with ease. Mistake-free defense. I would normally rank this player higher – prodigies to me have limitless upside — but the offense the top forward prospects bring is just too much to ignore and his prodigy is nicked slightly for his birthdate. However, this kid is probably going to start earning his contract faster than any of the other top graduates. I had Brodin at 5 last year, a similarly cerebral and calm defenseman, except Murray looks like he will bring more O.

5. Morgan Rielly: The best offensive defenseman in the graduating class. Rielly is that rarest brand of defenseman, an elite puck-rusher. This kid is an absolute trap breaker as he busts and jukes his way through the neutral zone, and can he dangle like a forward in the offensive zone. Great creativity, vision, puck skills, and shot. Unfortunately due to injury, I have little idea of how well Rielly’s defensive game rates. In the few games he played in the playoffs, he looked at least replacement level, but it would have been nice to have seen more. Size is also a concern but apparently he added 10 lbs during his intensive rehab and his frame is starting to mature. Like Galchenyuk, he is reputedly a gym rat. I had Murphy in this spot last year. Rielly doesn’t quite have Murphy’s offensive talent, but he has better size and strength. BobbyMac’s report says Rielly’s hockey sense is as good in his own end and he’s tough to beat. The sky is the limit for this kid if he can play in his own end.

The next tier is composed of seven players who all have small warts in the game, but could all reach first line or pairing possibility:

6. Filip Forsberg: I might have this player at 2nd overall if he had shown a little more offense in the SEL and played a little better at the WJC. Forsberg has plus speed in a nice combination with plus size, and uses both speed and size effectively. He also has excellent balance and mobility for a larger body. He appears to be still maturing physically so could be a dominant physical player in a couple of years. Great shot and plenty of finish. Doesn’t distribute the puck as well as one would hope for a top line centre, so if he makes a team’s top 3 forwards, it could be as a winger. Forsberg has plenty of determination and drive to his game — the kind of battle that pro teams love to see, especially out of bigger men.

7. Griffin Reinhart: This is a physically smaller class of Dmen on the whole, but Reinhart is one prospect who already has pro size and strength. Skating has been Reinhart’s issue, but it has improved greatly throughout the season, and we now see Reinhart dangling through the neutral zone with the puck, something he would not have attempted a year ago. The improved skating has transformed this player and he took a great leap this year, so maybe has more upside than some of the D prospects around him. Would have been nice to see a little more offense but when you consider he had to share minutes with a stacked D, he posted some nice numbers, especially in the Goals category. Has a boomer of a slapshot from the point. Physical assertiveness was an issue earlier in the season, but Reinhart proved able to raise this aspect of the game in the playoffs. Has better hockey sense than he often gets credit for.

8. Teuvo Teravinen: Tough guy to evaluate as he’s playing where kids rarely play, the Finnish pro league. His skating was greatly improved this year, buying him plenty of time and space on the larger ice surface. Can make the seeing eye pass with feathery beauty. His release is as good as Yakupov’s, and he has the wheels to be a dynamic threat, but has been criticized for play away from the puck and in his own end. Needs to show more drive and consistency, but there’s no denying the talent. Could be a real prize if he slips out of the top 10, but I don’t think that’s likely. Is known as more of a perimeter player and size is of course an issue here, but Teravainen has that extra gear in his skating that most small forwards need to overcome their strength issues. Going to be a fun and exciting player to watch.

9. Radek Faksa: Another all-round power forward like Forsberg, possessing ize, shot, brains, vision, defense. Plays a game that translates well to the pros. Could be a little better at puck distribution. His biggest weakness is probably top end speed, but there are no technical issues with his stride and speed should improve with maturity. Very smart player with a calculating view of the ice at both ends of the rink. He generates turnovers and his first three steps are strong enough to take advantage of the transition. A lot to like here.

10. Jacob Trouba: All round defenseman with a pro combination of size and skating. Has good drive and plays with consistency. Smart player who can beat you with positioning or physicality. Sports a killer slap shot. Makes plays under pressure and shows great all round awareness. A lot has been made about his intangibles – leadership, battle, competitiveness, will to win etc – stuff NHL teams love. His game reminds me of Murray’s but without the same effortless level of ease.

11. Tomas Hertl: I’d rank him higher if it wouldn’t stick out as the only ranking in the top 10. I think he has more upside than Faksa. His NHLE for goal-scoring is the best of the past 3 drafts. Can score with deception or with a rocket shot. Great along and off the walls, with pro-size and strength. He ranks lower on all other rankings because of his skating. He skates like a baby moose. But his stride is effective and can be worked on. At the highest levels of his age group he has dominated, outplaying Faksa at the WJC, and has been scoring with success against men in the Czech majors all season. I don’t see how a team can wait to 20 to take a prospect that brings so much finish and a power game.

12. Maatta: I don’t know if any player has impressed more since the calendar flipped to the 2012s. He’s always been accomplished in his own end, playing a mistake-free defensive game with a combination of physicality and positioning that is a marvel for his birthdate. Maatta started the year ranked far lower due to a lack of offense, but he turned heads when he turned on the jets this spring. When we consider that he is a late August prospect, this late bloom makes sense. So we have a kid who plays nearly as well in his own end as Murray, has found his offensive stride and is nearly a full year younger (and yet has good size and strength). He might be the second best defenseman in this draft five years down the road.

We get another tier of seven players here who are largely interchangeable but only have second line or pairing upside.

13. Dumba: I enjoy Dumba’s game, but I don’t think there’s any possible way it translates to the NHL without some physical change to his body. Dmen his size cannot be looking for the big hits and expect to survive long. He’s a wonderful skater, second only to Rielly when carrying the puck and possesses probably the best slapshot from the D prospects in this class. He distributes the puck with aplomb, using the attention he generates to his advantage. Might have put up even more points on a better team. But I would draft him with the intention of converting him to centre or wing. He has NHL hockey player tools, but not so much NHL defenseman tools. Because I’m not sure he will change his style of play or convert to forward, I’m ranking Dumba lower than most.

14. Lindholm Well-rounded Dman with excellent skating abilites (seems like the entire crop of D prospects thus far can skate like Toller Cranston). Lindholm in fact skates backwards with the speed of an Adam Foote. Played Div 2 hockey against men and helped his team get promoted to the Elitserien. Didn’t see the minutes he would have seen playing Junior here, but learning to play D against men can’t hurt. Shows an aggressive nature in his own end and likes to look for the big hit. Still learning position and angles, but overall has very good hockey sense. Well-built kid who looks like he added an inch this year.

15. Girgensons Perhaps the first true power forward in the draft class. Girgensons plays the game with such an intense, aggressive, direct style that he seems more battle combatant than hockey player. He might be the closest thing to Dustin Brown in the draft. A real plus skater with a good motor for his size, and every scout mentions his excellent balance. He loves to drive the net and can beat you with speed to the outside or by powering through you. Shields the puck well, but can stickhandle too. Very good hands in tight and can fire a decent wrister. Another player whose season was cut short by injury. Girgenson’s knock is that he can be too emotional, leading to mistakes on the ice and trying to do too much himself. Maturity will come. This is a player that would look very good in Oiler silks.

16. Cody Ceci: Not the prettiest stride you will ever see, but it’s effective and he’s a big time minute muncher with the second best offense at his position in the OHL. Has a hammer of a slap shot and high velocity wrister too. Very good positioning in his own end with a well-used active stick. Has plenty of size and will finish his checks, but doesn’t seem to have much of a mean streak. It would be nice to see him bring a little more physical assertiveness. Getting a player like Ceci at 16 is indicative of the depth in this draft crop’s defensemen.

17. Aberg: Nominated for Rookie of the Year in the SEL, but lost out to an older player. Has blazing speed, one of the fastest skaters in the draft, and can cut like Eberle. He put on 10 lbs. this season and has a bit of a fire hydrant build. With this stockiness and his extra gear, he should have no problem finding employment in the NHL. Thinks shoot before pass, with a cannon for a slapper and a heavy wrister too. Can take a pass well, and make one too, but doesn’t distribute with great vision. Still raw and inexperienced in his own end.

18. Gaunce: The Mark McNeill of this draft. Gym rat with a mature body that he deploys with gusto. Has nice soft hands for his size and can feather sweet passes through traffic. Decent shot, although he could use a little more finish. Excellent in his own zone, from positioning, to blocking shots, to winning battles along the walls. Very dedicated player with leadership attributes. First three steps and acceleration are Gaunce’s biggest issues, but he has a good stride and his skating should improve with work. When it does, Gaunce will be a force to be reckoned with.

19. Koekkoek: I love this kid’s skating and footwork. He handles the puck very well with his head up through the neutral zone and along the blue line when quarterbacking. Has both plus mobility and agility. His skating also allows him to hound players on defense. He has great gap control and an ability to limit time and space. Likes to hit, plays strong in front of his net, always seems to be in the way. Has a nice low hard slapshot. A lot to like here except he’s another guy with major injury questions. Could easily out perform his class rank.

20. Sebastien Collberg: I think the entire hockey-watching world would like to have seen Sebastien Collberg get more ice time this past season. More of an opportunity to break that Elitserien Goose Egg. He showed well at the WJCs and it’s easy to see the talent in this kid. Sniper rifle wrist shot, good speed and skating, excellent hands and plenty of courage in his game. He’s a bit small and needs ore strength t make his game translate, but also could easily out-perform his class ranking.

The class falls off here again, leaving the longest shots to make second line or pairing (except for the two goalies):

21. Timothe Bozon: Came out of nowhere, but has blossomed into a PPG guy in The Dub this year. Has the size and skating needed to play at the pro-level, but still appears to be figuring out everything he can do. I think I have him higher than most, but the up-side is there.

22. Scott Laughton: Just too smart a player for me to rank any lower. Shows great patience with the puck and distributes with vision and timing. Works hard all over the ice.

23. Matt Finn: His offense has come a long way and he doesn’t just look like a shutdown guy anymore. Good two way defenseman who’s plus in his own end.

24. Brady Skjei I could be convinced to place Skjei and the following two defensemen in any order. Skjei offers pro-size with smooth skating and a good first pass. Could use a little more offense in his game.

25. Andrei Vasilevski: The top goalie in the class. Has the size scouts now look for and combines it with excellent speed and agility. Good rebound control, covers the posts well, and gets up and down with quickness and ease. Very composed although did get rattled a little during the WJCs. As close a thing to a can’t-miss goalie prospect as the draft ever sees. I’d probably have him ranked 5-6 spots higher, but the Russian Factor sadly comes into play as he is under great pressure to play over there.

26. Henrik Samuelsson: Skating and shot are his biggest issues, but the skating has come a long way (have Reinhart and Sammy both been coached by Serdachny this season?). He’s a tough player to play against, engages physically but has the talent to bring offense along with his hard ass play.

27. Ludvig Bystrom: Thick-bodied Swede with plus skating. Stickhandles well, passes well, and can play the point on the PP. Needs to work on some defensive issues.

28. Michael Matheson: Excellent skater who might be able to find more offense in his game as he matures. Beats the forecheck well and gets the puck up the ice. Good hard slap shot. Could use some more strength.

29. Thomas Wilson: The man, the myth, the legend. This year’s edition of the Exciting Big Body. Wilson has shown some flashes of talent, and has decent hockey sense. Skating needs work as do his hands. Will be drafter higher than I have him.

30. Malcolm Subban: Very athletic kid with the composure to handle the pressure of big games. Projects as a starter but his technique will need some refinement before he gets there. Still a bit raw and awkward.

BONUS RANKINGS:

Like last year we’ll take it to the Oiler second.

31. Derrick Pouliot: Has great vision and puck-moving skills, maybe the best in this class of defenseman, but lacks the strength and size right now to play his position at the NHL level. Played on a WHL powerhouse, so maybe there is some team effect in his numbers, but full credit to him for taking advantage of his skilled forwards. PP QB. He might be able to add some strength and bulk, but there is too high of a bust potential here to rank him as high as his offense suggests.

32. Daniil Zharkov Bit of a late bloomer whose skating has improved tremendously over the past year. I have him rated higher than most because of his pro size and shot. I place a lot of emphasis on finish and this kid has it. Mental aspect should improve with experience and I like this kid’s upside more than say someone like Lukas Sutter. Not the greatest playmaker and could show a little more battle along the boards. Still, he makes good moves off the walls.

HONOURABLE MENTIONS:

Troy Bourke – Talk about team effect. If he had played on a better team, we might be talking about him in the 1st round. The Cougars produced zero offense this year and Bourke played with nobodies. Unfortunately doesn’t have the size to dictate the play on the ice without better teammates. Might be a late bloomer physically as his growth spurt came late.

Mark Jankowski — Hardest player in the draft to evaluate. I haven’t seen him play so can’t put him in the 1st round in good conscience, but if the talent level is really there, Oilers might be able to pick up an offensively gifted centre at 32. Has pro height but a bean pole frame. Dominated league opposition with both his playmaking and his finishing.

Gemel Smith – Appears to have every tool but size, the toughest of all tools to teach. But he didn’t shy away from the dirty areas at the Junior level and has shown good battle against bigger opponents. Tough to say if his effectiveness will translate to the pro level, but there is impressive talent here.

Andreas Athanasiou – The August birthday makes this kid an intriguing flyer pick, despite the consistency issues. If my scouts had a good read on his head, I would try to trade in to the 40s to pick him up, if he’s still available.

Well, that’s all I got. Thank you LT for the opportunity and to everyone else for tuning in. I hope you all enjoyed it.

Now let’s go trade that stupid effin pick!

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111 Responses to "SPOILER ALERT!"

  1. TheOtherJohn says:

    LT

    Tell the wife I am pretty sure I saw a couple of spolilers like that on cars in parking lot at the wind tunnel that is also known as Taylor Field!! Absolute chick magnets!! LOL. Pretty sure they were also equipped with 8 track players and backseat littered with tapes.

    Spoiler excellent job!! Surprised you have Dumba so low and Grigerenko so high. Definitely reasons for both situations. If Grigs legitimately had mono for last 2 months of season, he could be an absolute steal. Remain of view that if we want a D man , with Klefbom, Musil, Marincin coming that Reilly’s offense makes more sense

    Fully expect Oilers to pick R Murray. Reason for lack of draft party is Lowe doesn’t want TSN to cut to Edm draft party where his pick gets absolutely booed!

  2. commonfan14 says:

    PRV tweeting about Swedish pride for Landeskog last night without any mention of the Nuge.

    A rare (and slight) PR mis-step for a kid who usually says all the right things publicly.

  3. Cactus says:

    Great list Spoiler, as always.

    I’m really curious about where Grigorenko, Dumba and Samuelsson go during the draft. These are three fairly high profile players that seem to be all over the rankings. They could all be gone by 20 or at least one could slip till round 2, should be interesting.

  4. Cactus says:

    Also, Brownlee’s latest:

    http://oilersnation.com/2012/6/21/fthm-iv-ryan-murray

    The money quote on Ryan Murray, from Stu:

    “Projection: “He’s probably a top-two or top-three guy.”"

    Maybe it’s yet another smoke screen, but they’d have to be really down on not only Yak, Grigorenko, Galchenyuk and Forsberg to go with a top 2-3 d-man, over top line scoring potential. If he was saying “definite top pairing, elite guy” I think that would be a clear indication of Murray as the pick. I wonder what the quote on Yakupov will be tomorrow.

  5. Maestro Fresh Mess says:

    LT, what is your take on Terry Jones’ article in the Sun today? It would explain Hartsburg jumping at another job offer with lowly Columbus.

    Why do all of Tambellini’s decisions have to drag out at a glacial pace? Surely to gawd they are not waiting for a resolution of the Coyotes situation (Tippet) before they name a hire. Any other organisation would have hired a coach by now.

  6. Captain Obvious says:

    Brownlee’s piece is good news. It puts to bed, somewhat, the rumours that the “scouts” prefer Murray.

    So, now that they are going to take Yakupov the question becomes what is the bad move they are going to make to compensate. I guess they trade Hemsky for a mediocre defenseman.

  7. Oilander says:

    Oiler’s are pleased to pick, at #153 overall, from the Wisconsin Badgers, Justin Schultz!

  8. bookje says:

    I am really disappointed that you didn’t find any ‘poise’ in the entire group. I really don’t care who the Oilers draft now. Without poise, they are all worthless!

  9. Mr DeBakey says:

    The word Poise crossed my mind when I read:.

    “The kind of calm leader that makes the players around him better. ” in the Murray bit.

    It might explain a lot.
    Draft Yak or trade down

    Remember, with your Help, Logan Couture Syndrome can be beaten.
    Team Yakety Yak (don’t talk back)

  10. spoiler says:

    Thanks guys.

    I”m stunned anyone can actually read that entire 8 page monstrosity. I apparently didn’t, considering the number of typos. Needed a time machine, not a crystal ball.

    One of the bigger surprises for me in the ranking was Scott Laughton. When I started out actually putting numbers to the players, I thought he would be just outside the top 30, but he made it handily. There are so few forwards at the top end of this draft.

  11. fuzzy muppet says:

    Mr DeBakey,

    You must be very excited. Yakmass Eve is here. It’s going o be a long 36 hours before we open our gift!

  12. spoiler says:

    bookje: I am really disappointed that you didn’t find any ‘poise’ in the entire group. I really don’t care who the Oilers draft now. Without poise, they are all worthless!

    Lol. I think I went for “composure” in a couple of spots instead. “Calm” too as Mr D points out.

  13. Chris Hext---formerly EasyOil--- says:

    commonfan14,

    I really wouldn’t read that much into PRV’s tweet. It seemed to me like a broad statement meant to encompass not only Landeskog, but Lundqvist and Karlsson aswell. He’s just saying how proud he is that so many Swedes won awards, not that Gabriel beat out RNH. I’m sure he’s said well done to Nuge many times on his nomination. No “PR mistep” there at all.

  14. LP says:

    Bohologo:
    LT, just a quick word of thanks. You have been generating an astounding amount of discussion with your postings leading up to the draft. For those of us too painfully aware of how long it has been since the last Stan Weir sighting in these parts, your work and the comments it generates is greatly appreciated; it’s almost like we have something to cheer for.

    I completely agree. Thanks LT! (and great list spOiler!)

  15. Marc says:

    Cactus:

    Maybe it’s yet another smoke screen, but they’d have to be really down on not only Yak, Grigorenko, Galchenyuk and Forsberg to go with a top 2-3 d-man, over top line scoring potential.If he was saying “definite top pairing, elite guy” I think that would be a clear indication of Murray as the pick.I wonder what the quote on Yakupov will be tomorrow.

    That was my take as well when I read this. The Yakupov quote will be a big tell.

    It also says something about the weakness of this draft compared to last year. Last Stu projected Larsson as ‘a 1 or a 2 – probably a 2′ and rated both Couturier and RNH as first line centers. This year he has Galchenyuk as a ‘tremendous no. 2 center’ and Grigorenko as a ‘first or second line center’ depending on the team. Forsberg is described as a poor man’s Landeskog.

    We’ll have to see what he thinks of Yakupov, but it doesn’t sound like any of this year’s top five would have gone in the top five last year.

  16. rickithebear says:

    Bohologo: For those of us too painfully aware of how long it has been since the last Stan Weir sighting in these parts

    Lt: one of my favorite fan references of time.
    Pennats in Hockey; years from last pennat; or sytart of team.
    current: NJD; LAK
    1yr: Bos; Vcr Wpg
    2yr: Chi; Phi
    3yr: pit; Det
    5Yr: Ana; Ott
    6Yr: Edm; Car
    8yr: Tmp Cgy
    11yr: Col; CLB
    12Yr: Dal
    13Yr: Buf
    14Yr: Was, NSH
    16 Yr: Fld; Phx
    18 Yr: NYR
    19 Yr: Mtl
    21 Yr: Minn; SJS
    28 Yr: NYI
    42 Yr: STL
    45 Yr: TOR

    I will take were we ar at. Anything less than this is a season of angst.

  17. SoxandOil says:

    commonfan14,

    Gabriel and Magnus are very good friends theres no PR mis-step in congratuating your dearest friend and countrymen. Don’t try to turn this into something its not.

  18. commonfan14 says:

    SoxandOil,

    It’s a slight mis-step to congratulate your buddy from another team for beating out a teammate for an award without mentioning something about how the teammate had a great year too.

    It’s pretty much nothing – just a little surprising since it’s the first time I can remember PRV not saying the exact right thing.

    Clearly, it means that PRV and RNH hate each other and that PRV has been told he’s being traded for a 3rd round pick.

  19. gogliano says:

    The #2 spot for Galchenyuk is an interesting one given that he missed a full year of play. Definitely a hard year to predict things.

    Also interesting from the Brownlee pieces and comments after the article is that Galchenyuk seems like he is very much in the mix and the most likely candidate to usurp Yakupov at #1. If they pick Galch. #1 and the comments are to the effect of “it was scouts’ top choice,” I really won’t complain. Would love another top center and he is really hard to project because of the year off; the whole notion of “wisdom of crowds,” I think, also needs to tempered by the fact that crowds also have persistent and recognizable biases (e.g., we prefer what we saw last).

    AG is also the one player that would be hard to draft if you trade down–Columbus might prefer him to Yakupov because of the U.S. connections so a flip of picks or picking past Columbus might mean you lose your guy.

  20. rickithebear says:

    Spoiler: YEH hertl!

  21. Ducey says:

    the whole notion of “wisdom of crowds,” I think, also needs to tempered by the fact that crowds also have persistent and recognizable biases (e.g., we prefer what we saw last).

    The wisdom of the scouting crowd might have some validity but the “fan crowd” is full of lunatics. I am constantly amazed at so many people coming out so strongly on behalf of prospects or coaching candidtes they know nothing about and have never seen in action.

    Maybe its my contrarian nature, but I am becoming less enamored with the Nail each day leading up to the draft. Most of the scouts are saying he is ahead of those below him but not by much. When I think ahead to the end of his ELC/ RFA years (and the almost certain threat of the KHL if he doesn’t get what he wants) I am worried that whatever extra he might bring in the short term might be overwhelmed by the negative later.

    20 years of a steady top pairing defenseman wouldn’t be all bad.

  22. spoiler says:

    rickithebear: Spoiler: YEH hertl!

    Agreed. I think he snuck up a little higher on McKenzie’s final list, but I am surprised at the number of lists that have him lower than 20th, even with the skating issues. Can’t produce like that against men without being able to get up and down the ice.

  23. Mr DeBakey says:

    20 years of a steady top pairing defenseman wouldn’t be all bad.

    7 years of a steady top pairing defenseman wouldn’t be all bad.
    Fixed!

    Remember, with your Help, Logan Couture Syndrome can be beaten.
    Team Yakety Yak (don’t talk back)

  24. nixcat says:

    Prepare two envelopes: Jones reports Krueger likely new coach; http://www.edmontonsun.com/2012/06/21/signs-point-to-krueger-as-oilers-head-coach. Love the blog, it’s a daily must read for me.

  25. Braintrust says:

    If I were Oilers GM, I would execute the following plan:

    #1-> Draft Nail Yakupov
    #2-> Trade Sam Gagner to Carolina for their 8th pick overall (Carolina already has the deal on the table if we want it). I would then use that 8th pick to draft Jacob Trouba or Griffin Reinhart (whoever is available the the time – I LOVE BOTH of these players!) I think Trouba will be a NASTY piece of work to play against with #1 powerplay ability. I would say he would be comparable to Ryan Suter, but more NASTY!
    #3-> I would package Olivier Roy, Ryan Martindale, Curtis Hamilton and our 2nd round pick to Tampa Bay for their 10th pick overall. I would use that pick to draft Radek Faksa. Either he or Pitlick would take the place of Gagner as second-line centre.

    Here is an example of what Tambellini HAS TO DO in order to improve the team from an overall perspective. As an NHL GM, you MUST BE creative in your approach and make things happen! That is why I respect Brian Burke. Although he doesn’t always get it right, at least he tries and takes calculated risks. Therefore, I would suggest a plan similar to this would be an excellent way of getting us closer to where we need to be, both now and in the future.

  26. bookje says:

    Braintrust:
    If I were Oilers GM, I would execute the following plan:

    #1->Draft Nail Yakupov
    #2->Trade Sam Gagner to Carolina for their 8th pick overall (Carolina already has the deal on the table if we want it).I would then use that 8th pick to draft Jacob Trouba or Griffin Reinhart (whoever is available the the time – I LOVE BOTH of these players!)I think Trouba will be a NASTY piece of work to play against with #1 powerplay ability.I would say he would be comparable to Ryan Suter, but more NASTY!
    #3->I would package Olivier Roy, Ryan Martindale, Curtis Hamilton and our 2nd round pick to Tampa Bay for their 10th pick overall.I would use that pick to draft Radek Faksa.Either he or Pitlick would take the place of Gagner as second-line centre.

    Here is an example of what Tambellini HAS TO DO in order to improve the team from an overall perspective.As an NHL GM, you MUST BE creative in your approach and make things happen!That is why I respect Brian Burke.Although he doesn’t always get it right, at least he tries and takes calculated risks.Therefore, I would suggest a plan similar to this would be an excellent way of getting us closer to where we need to be, both now and in the future.

    I would trade Ben Eager for the 2nd overall and Alex Plante for the 3rd overall. My team would be way more awesomer than yours.

    This inventing trades without having to actually execute them on the market is so much fun. We should do more of it.

  27. bookje says:

    As per the Krueger is coach thing.

    1. I wonder if the Flames have allowed the Oilers to talk to Sutter. It would be a pathetic thing to do if they were preventing it (though it is the Flames so it is possible). As such, the Oilers may be waiting to interview him.

    2. Krueger may be in the running, but that does not mean Cooper or others are not in the running.

    3. Jones sounds pretty certain, but his logic is weak. He does not indicate any inside knowledge here, but the tone sounds like he has some.

  28. ashley says:

    Braintrust:

    Here is an example of what Tambellini HAS TO DO in order to improve the team from an overall perspective.As an NHL GM, you MUST BE creative in your approach and make things happen!That is why I respect Brian Burke.Although he doesn’t always get it right, at least he tries and takes calculated risks.T

    It takes far more courage to do nothing than do something, especially in a hockey market like this. Sometimes doing nothing is an excellent course of action given the alternatives (rarely entirely known to us).

    I have more respect for someone who can stand in the middle of of the firestorm and do nothing when everyone is screaming “Do something”.

  29. Woodguy says:

    Terry Jones has Krueger as next Oilers Head Coach

    He assumes it was a 2 horse race between him and Sutter and Sutter never interviewed.

    There was hubbub that Jon Cooper was interviewed, but Jones never mentions him.

    Was speculated that the Flames wouldn’t let the Oilers talk to Sutter, but Feaster says the did not deny the Oilers permission to talk to Sutter.

    I hope Jones is right as I really like Krueger.

    Before he was re-hired by the Oilers MacT mentioned that he would clean house in terms of coaches.

    If Krueger is indeed the man then either Krueger changed Mac’s mind, or Mac was out voted.

    Given that Krueger moonlights as a high priced motivational speaker (not Van down by the river type), I’d bet on that he swayed Mac….again, if he actually got the job.

    Here’s hoping.

  30. Woodguy says:

    Oops, looks like I was beat to the punch on the Jones thing.

  31. bookje says:

    Woodguy:
    Oops, looks like I was beat to the punch on the Jones thing.

    But you did clarify that Feaster indicated that the Flames did not prevent the Oilers from talking to him. That’s important.

    What I like about that is how it demonstrates how clueless the MSM is about the inner workings of the Oilers. Three weeks ago Sutter was pretty much declared the coach of the Oilers by the press. It now looks as though he may not have even been shortlisted.

  32. bookje says:

    ashley: It takes far more courage to do nothing than do something, especially in a hockey market like this.Sometimes doing nothing is an excellent course of action given the alternatives (rarely entirely known to us).

    I have more respect for someone who can stand in the middle of of the firestorm and do nothing when everyone is screaming “Do something”.

    I agree, but then again, I have been doing nothing all day so…

  33. cabbiesmacker says:

    Didn’t we see similar at #1 and 2 last year? Yakupov = RNH and Galchenyuk = Landeskog? I wouldn’t be disappointed in either.

    I would however be extremely disappointed in any top 5 pick named Ryan Murray unless a good dman comes along with him. ie Gardiner,

  34. nathan says:

    “Before he was re-hired by the Oilers MacT mentioned that he would clean house in terms of coaches.
    If Krueger is indeed the man then either Krueger changed Mac’s mind, or Mac was out voted.”

    Woodguy,

    Or MacT might have recused himself and said you’d better be right or I’ll be picking MY assistants next summer.

  35. Ribs says:

    Yea, no one from the the Oilers has spoke to Sutter about the job….Riiiigggghhtt.

  36. oilersfan says:

    i wonder if they will use number one on Galchenyuk and trade Gagner at 8 then draft the best dman available. Maybe Rielly or Dumba or Trouba…

    that might make more sense than anything else talked about.

  37. Rondo says:

    If the Oilers have Yakupov and Galchenyuk ranked equally you take have to take Galchenyuk .

    I can’t see the Oilers taking a Dman first.

    If you want a Dman you need to trade down

    I do wonder if they did take a shot a NJ’s Adam Larsson this year.

    I would be surprised if Jon Cooper was the man they were looking at, I would assume if he was they would have hired him before the draft. His intel would be useful to the Oilers in the draft.

  38. spoiler says:

    Rondo: If the Oilers have Yakupov and Galchenyuk ranked equally you take have to take Galchenyuk .I can’t see the Oilers taking a Dman first.If you want a Dman you need to trade down I do wonder if they did take a shot a NJ’s Adam Larsson this year.I would be surprised if Jon Cooper was the man they were looking at, I would assume if he was they would have hired him before the draft. His intel would be useful to the Oilers in the draft.

    We don’t have Stu’s scouting report from Brownlee on Yakupov yet, but from the sounds of the report on Galchenyuk, Yak has him beat. I would concur. Talent just isn’t at the same level. Not that Galchenyuk is chopped liver or anything.

  39. Traktor says:

    I hope Krueger isn’t named HC.

    He might be a decent coach but the biggest reason he is being considered IMO is because he already knows Lowe and Tambellini. The exact same reason MacT was hired. Small Pools, ect

    I don’t think players going to camp would have a different feeling when the new coach is someone they worked all of last year.

    Plus Woodguy likes him which is a red flag for me.

  40. speeds says:

    Rondo:
    If the Oilers have Yakupov and Galchenyukranked equally you take have to take Galchenyuk.

    Just because Galchenyuk is a C? What about the unknown of how Galchenyuk would have played this year, as compared to Yakupov who did play most of this year and improved, at least statistically, even without Galchenyuk.

  41. godot10 says:

    Traktor:
    I hope Krueger isn’t named HC.

    He might be a decent coach but the biggest reason he is being considered IMO is because he already knows Lowe and Tambellini. The exact same reason MacT was hired. Small Pools, ect

    I don’t think players going to camp would have a different feeling when the new coach is someone they worked all of last year.

    Plus Woodguy likes him which is a red flag for me.

    I doubt Lowe or Tambellini could have identified Krueger in a lineup 2 years ago. He was an NHL outsider, about as far outside the NHL old boys’ club as you can get.

  42. Marc says:

    According to Gregor Galchenyuk hasn’t spoken to the OIlers since the combine, so he’s probably not their guy.

    http://oilersnation.com/2012/6/21/prospects-talk

  43. uni says:

    Neither here nor there, but Karlsson won the freaking Norris? Karlsson? Really? In that case Green should already have two. The NHL awards really are a huge joke…just ludicrous.

    It’s always fun when it’s a popularity contest and the descriptions don’t match the criteria.

  44. cabbiesmacker says:

    speeds: Just because Galchenyuk is a C?

    With size yep. We stink in both departments. Not saying I’d take him above yakky doodle but he certainly satisfies more of a need.

  45. cabbiesmacker says:

    uni:
    Neither here nor there, but Karlsson won the freaking Norris?Karlsson?Really?In that case Green should already have two.The NHL awards really are a huge joke…just ludicrous.

    It’s always fun when it’s a popularity contest and the descriptions don’t match the criteria.

    There had to be some amusement at the ceremony. There was zero from any of the presenters or other assorted riff raff.

    What an unbelieveably deplorable and disgusting mess that was last night. The entire audience, home and on site, seemed uncomfortable. Hard to tell what the # 4-6 sport in the US is huh? NOT

  46. Traktor says:

    godot10: I doubt Lowe or Tambellini could have identified Krueger in a lineup 2 years ago.He was an NHL outsider, about as far outside the NHL old boys’ club as you can get.

    He has worked closely with Lowe, Tambellini, and Edmonton’s roster the past two years.

    Not exactly a fresh new look going into 2012/2013.

  47. speeds says:

    cabbiesmacker: With size yep. We stink in both departments. Not saying I’d take him above yakky doodle but he certainly satisfies more of a need.

    Is Galchenyuk really a C with size in the way most think? Maybe he’ll put some muscle on, but here’s a link to the combine height and weights:

    http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1207027

  48. LP says:

    Traktor:
    I hope Krueger isn’t named HC.

    He might be a decent coach but the biggest reason he is being considered IMO is because he already knows Lowe and Tambellini. The exact same reason MacT was hired. Small Pools, ect

    I don’t think players going to camp would have a different feeling when the new coach is someone they worked all of last year.

    Plus Woodguy likes him which is a red flag for me.

    I read from someone on Twitter that the players really like Kruger and that would be their choice.

    I’d have to say that I disagree with you about the players not caring who the coach is. Even though Kruger was there, he wasn’t THE man. Him being in charge would change that dynamic.

    Anyway, I’m good with Kruger or Cooper. Sutter, not so much

  49. lazerguidedmelody says:

    Question: is it particularly unusual to head into draft day without a HC?

  50. Ducey says:

    Traktor: I hope Krueger isn’t named HC.He might be a decent coach but the biggest reason he is being considered IMO is because he already knows Lowe and Tambellini. The exact same reason MacT was hired. Small Pools, ectI don’t think players going to camp would have a different feeling when the new coach is someone they worked all of last year.Plus Woodguy likes him which is a red flag for me.

    I like him too. If Woodguy and I both agree on him, he must be the next Toe Blake.

  51. spoiler says:

    speeds: Is Galchenyuk really a C with size in the way most think? Maybe he’ll put some muscle on, but here’s a link to the combine height and weights:http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1207027

    That change in Rielly’s weight was a big one for me. He came into the year at 6’0″, 190 but is now the same size or slightly bigger than Murray.

  52. spoiler says:

    Traktor: He has worked closely with Lowe, Tambellini, and Edmonton’s roster the past two years.Not exactly a fresh new look going into 2012/2013.

    I’d prefer that our special teams don’t have a fresh look and that at EVs, which was Renney’s responsibility last year, we do.

  53. Woodguy says:

    Traktor: I don’t think players going to camp would have a different feeling when the new coach is someone they worked all of last year.

    Plus Woodguy likes him which is a red flag for me.

    I could say I like sunshine and women in clingly cotton sun dresses with no underwear and you’d stump for rainy days and overcoats.

    What if after they hire Krueger they say one of the key reasons was that the players liked him and respond well to him?

  54. Woodguy says:

    Ducey: I like him too.If Woodguy and I both agree on him, he must be the next Toe Blake.

    This is the correct answer.

    We don’t agree on much when it comes to Oiler management, so its a sign.

  55. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: I could say I like sunshine and women in clingly cotton sun dresses with no underwear…

    No link?

  56. till_horcoff_is_coach says:

    Marc:
    According to Gregor Galchenyuk hasn’t spoken to the OIlers since the combine, so he’s probably not their guy.

    http://oilersnation.com/2012/6/21/prospects-talk

    According to ON, SMB stated 3 oil scouts have interviewed him and one scout is a friend of his father. So if (big if) they are blowing smoke and mirrors and it’s not just overhype from the media, then it is a possibility they are disguising their intentions. Just seems weird they didn’t interview him after how well he was before this injury season and how great he came back after injury.

  57. godot10 says:

    lazerguidedmelody:
    Question: is it particularly unusual to head into draft day without a HC?

    Doug Wilson is supposed to be a genius, and he left Todd McClellan hanging about next year, officially anyways, till last week. Maybe he was waiting on Tippet also. Nobody on TSN or HNIC was whining about how unfair Doug Wilson was being to Todd McClellan about telling him one way or another earlier.

  58. bookje says:

    Woodguy: This is the correct answer.

    We don’t agree on much when it comes to Oiler management, so its a sign.

    I also like him, but WG and I agree on most somethings oftentimes so I am not really sure what that suggests.

    With that said – I also would be ok with Cooper.

  59. godot10 says:

    spoiler: That change in Rielly’s weight was a big one for me.He came into the year at 6’0″, 190 but is now the same size or slightly bigger than Murray.

    Not hard to do if you are in the weight room for 4 months not playing hockey.

  60. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: No link?

    I googled “Women in Sundresses and the best line was this chive gallery of women in tight dresses , pretty sure its SFW unless you have a restrictive office, no nudity.

  61. Cactus says:

    ashley: It takes far more courage to do nothing than do something, especially in a hockey market like this.Sometimes doing nothing is an excellent course of action given the alternatives (rarely entirely known to us).

    I have more respect for someone who can stand in the middle of of the firestorm and do nothing when everyone is screaming “Do something”.

    This. A thousand times this. For all the crying this year about how the Oilers should have addressed their defence last offseason, I have yet to hear a good AND plausible move that they could have made at that stage in the rebuild. These same people would have been screaming about how terrible Tambellini was for giving Jovonovski $4M+ for 4 years if he had gone that route. Unfortunately, given how poor the Oilers have been and how uncommunicative they are, when they’re not running around like people with their hair on fire, it’s because they’re “stupid and useless”.

    That said, patience isn’t an excuse forever. I think everyone knows, from Oilers management, to the fans to the media, that the time for a big step forward is now. Let’s see what this offseason brings. Hopefully Yak, J. Schultz and another D.

  62. Woodguy says:

    Cactus: This.A thousand times this.For all the crying this year about how the Oilers should have addressed their defence last offseason, I have yet to hear a good AND plausible move that they could have made at that stage in the rebuild.These same people would have been screaming about how terrible Tambellini was for giving Jovonovski $4M+ for 4 years if he had gone that route.Unfortunately, given how poor the Oilers have been and how uncommunicative they are, when they’re not running around like people with their hair on fire, it’s because they’re “stupid and useless”.

    That said, patience isn’t an excuse forever.I think everyone knows, from Oilers management, to the fans to the media, that the time for a big step forward is now.Let’s see what this offseason brings.Hopefully Yak, J. Schultz and another D.

    They have proven they can lose.

    They lost when they spent the to cap.

    They lost when they were “tanking”

    No one is more excited to see Actual NHL players of value added to the team than me.

    But the have not earned the benefit of the doubt. In fact, their actions have earned suspicion about their ability.

    I’ve always given credit when its due, its just not due often.

  63. Cactus says:

    Woodguy,

    They did lose when they spent to the cap. In the first full year for Tambellini. We definitely have to weigh that against him and the organization. However, it’s also just one year – a pretty small sample size. As ever, the great Jonathan Willis has already done the good work on this:

    http://oilersnation.com/2012/6/17/dale-tallon-things-get-worse-before-they-get-better

    That’s not to say that Tambellini &co. can certainly pull this off. I’m not saying it at all. However, it’s equally foolish to claim that they certainly, or even probably won’t. We simply don’t have enough data to say.

    I’m really not trying to be a cheerleader for Oilers’ management. I’m really not. I just think a lot of people, working with minimal information have an overly simplified view of what it takes to manage an NHL team (and no, I’m not really thinking of you, WG). This stuff is far more difficult and complicated than we often seem to realize.

  64. Marc says:

    Cactus:
    This stuff is far more difficult and complicated than we often seem to realize.

    Agreed.

    Here’s an example. More than a few people on here have said that they like Nick Schultz, but not if you have to give up Gilbert to get him. But veteran top 4 D on a reasonable contract don’t usually come cheaply. Minnesota would be looking to get a top 4 D back, or a young D who projects to be top 4, or a couple of very good prospects. So let’s look at what else Edmonton could have offered for Schulz that Minnesota plausibly could have accepted:
    - Petry
    - Smid + a prospect like Pitlick (to compensate for the fact that he’s only had one season as a legitate top 4 D)
    - MPS + Klefbom or Marincin

    In the long run, would making any of those deals be better for the Oilers than dealing a guy who though is unquestionably the best D on the team, has just a year left on his contract and could well be looking for a big raise to reflect the fact that he is much better than he was when they signed him to his current deal? Make any of those deals and I suspect that there would be plenty of people on here tearing Tambellini apart for mortgaging the future.

    Of course Tambellini could do nothing – hold on to both Gilbert and his young players/prospects – but then people would be (and have been) tearing him apart for failing to fix the clearly inadequate D.

    So basically he’s an idiot if he trades a good NHL player for another good NHL player, if he trades good young players/prospects for a good NHL player and if he holds on to his good NHL players, young players and prospects.

    The bar is being set pretty high here.

  65. bookje says:

    Wow, a stunning article from the Associated Press on the possibility of Yakupov being the first pick overall

    Or perhaps the least informative article written since “It’s colder in winter” or “DSF is mostly here because he gets kicks out of annoying you”.

  66. matmik says:

    Anyone know if this guy is legit:

    Hockeyy Insiderr ‏@HockeyyInsiderr

    Talks HEATING up between #Oilers and #Ducks for Schultz. Fully expecting if his rights are traded, Edmonton will be the team.
    Expand

    Reply
    Retweet
    Favorite

  67. commonfan14 says:

    oilersfan: i wonder if they will use number one on Galchenyuk and trade Gagner at 8 then draft the best dman available. Maybe Rielly or Dumba or Trouba…
    that might make more sense than anything else talked about.

    Assuming Galchenyuk gets sent back to Junior to get that missed year of development, who are we running down the middle then next year?

    RNH-Horc-Belanger-Vandevelde?

    Yikes.

  68. Cactus says:

    matmik:
    Anyone know if this guy is legit:

    Hockeyy Insiderr ‏@HockeyyInsiderr

    Talks HEATING up between #Oilers and #Ducks for Schultz. Fully expecting if his rights are traded, Edmonton will be the team.
    Expand

    Reply Retweet Favorite

    I don’t know anything about him except that he (or she I suppose) spells “insider” with an extra “r”. Can’t say that’s a good, credible start.

  69. commonfan14 says:

    Spec tweets that he’s now convinced the Oil will take Yak after listening to Tambo at his presser today.

  70. Woodguy says:

    Cactus,

    I appreciate that.

    I think of the ridiculous amount of specialized knowlege I need just to run my wood business, and I’d assume that running a hockey team is not dis similar.

    The difference is that no one follows my company in excriating detail like we do the Oilers. Nor does anyone study the woodflooring market as a hobby and gain some of the specialized knowledge.

    No one ever cheered on my staff and paid $200 to watch them work either.

    I hope they are better than what they have shown. I’ve been an Oiler fan for over 30 years.

  71. Woodguy says:

    matmik:
    Anyone know if this guy is legit:

    Hockeyy Insiderr ‏@HockeyyInsiderr

    Talks HEATING up between #Oilers and #Ducks for Schultz. Fully expecting if his rights are traded, Edmonton will be the team.
    Expand

    Reply Retweet Favorite

    The Ducks are probably threatening tampering charges unless they cough up a D prospect.

    I would too.

  72. Kris11 says:

    Marc,

    Huh?

    I think people were mad that he traded Gilbert for a defenseman who wasn’t as good as Gilbert.

    That and Gilbert is a RD (harder to come by) who produces offense (harder to come by).

    I like Schultz, too. but I wouldn’t trade Hall for him. It’s not a good trade to trade a better player for a worse one, unless you get something out of it: big cap hit reduction, picks, etc. Tambellini’s critics wanted him to make a good trade or no trade. No one wanted him to make a bad trade.

    I get that we are hard on the GM. And the job is harder than mine,

    But if Tambellini can’t mke better trades than the avere NHL GM, why not try a different GM? NHL teams are competitive enterprises. If you don’t win trades and draft better, you don’t win more. If you don’t win more, youd deserve to be fired.

    Other jobs aren’t like that. If I do a decent job teaching and don’t violate the rules, I don’t need to be better than average to keep my job. (I also get paid less than GM’s, so ther is a tradeoff.)

    So we should hold Tambellini to the exact standard we do. He has sucked relative to other GMs and the Oilers are losers for a long time. They are such bad losers, the league’s pity rules have given us a bunch of top picks.

    Ownership has accepted this and maybe encouraged it. Now he has a chance to improve the club and make the playoffs. If he doesn’t do that, he really, really deaerves to be fired.

  73. Kris11 says:

    For God’s sakes. Lowebellini have brought us the Vanek and Healey, debaucles, the Khabibulin deal, the Souray fiasco, Barker, Shit, Shit, and more Shit.

    The laughing stocks of the league for a half-decade.

  74. Marc says:

    Woodguy:

    No one ever cheered on my staff and paid $200 to watch them work either.

    Man, think of the upgrades you could make to the Woodguy mansion if they did though.

  75. Kris11 says:

    Last thing: I think Lowe had some good instincts as a GM. But after the cup run his work was uneven.

    Tambellini has yet to do much of anything really good., except that he is good at losing.Some things he has done okay. That hardly justifies not firing him and calling him a bad GM.

  76. Woodguy says:

    Marc: Agreed.

    Here’s an example.More than a few people on here have said that they like Nick Schultz, but not if you have to give up Gilbert to get him.But veteran top 4 D on a reasonable contract don’t usually come cheaply. Minnesota would be looking to get a top 4 D back, or a young D who projects to be top 4, or a couple of very good prospects. So let’s look at what else Edmonton could have offered for Schulz that Minnesota plausibly could have accepted:
    - Petry
    - Smid + a prospect like Pitlick (to compensate for the fact that he’s only had one season as a legitate top 4 D)
    - MPS + Klefbom or Marincin

    In the long run, would making any of those deals be better for the Oilers than dealing a guy who though is unquestionably the best D on the team, has just a year left on his contract and could well be looking for a big raise to reflect the fact that he is much better than he was when they signed him to his current deal? Make any of those deals and I suspect that there would be plenty ofpeople on here tearing Tambellini apart for mortgaging the future.

    Of course Tambellini could do nothing – hold on to both Gilbert and his young players/prospects – but then people would be (and have been) tearing him apart for failing to fix the clearly inadequate D.

    So basically he’s an idiot if he trades a good NHL player for another good NHL player, if he trades good young players/prospects for a good NHL player and if he holds on to his good NHL players, young players and prospects.

    The bar is being set pretty high here.

    I disagree with a couple things:

    But veteran top 4 D on a reasonable contract don’t usually come cheaply

    Some do, especially with the miles on the odometer that Shultz has.

    Of course Tambellini could do nothing – hold on to both Gilbert and his young players/prospects – but then people would be (and have been) tearing him apart for failing to fix the clearly inadequate D.

    You’re setting up a straw man here. There are a miard of ways to improve the D before you trade your best RH Dman or have to include trading anyone you mentioned.

    Watch what happens this weeked and around July 1.

  77. LP says:

    commonfan14:
    Spec tweets that he’s now convinced the Oil will take Yak after listening to Tambo at his presser today.

    This. I feel relieved. Finally.

  78. Woodguy says:

    Marc: Man, think of the upgrades you could make to the Woodguy mansion if they did though.

    Screw the house, I’d hold the city hostage unless they built me a giant new warehouse and office!

    f

  79. Woodguy says:

    LP: This.I feel relieved. Finally.

    Spector is also on record as saying Cam Barker is a top 3 Dman in the NHL.

  80. asiaoil says:

    1. Kruger is fine with me – and rather out of the ordinary for our inbred motley mgmt crew. Kruger is clearly smart and having our PP improve so much after he arrived is no coincidence. His short time running the bench was the first time since the mid-Mac years (before he lost his mind) that the guy running the show had a clue – and the results were impressive (I know small sample – but still). As long as he’s allowed to pick his own assistants – and not be stuck with chumps like Bucky and Smith – we would see a real improvement and not be out-coached on a regular basis.

    2. As for the draft – BPA is Yak, our forward prospect pool is thin, and none of the available dmen merit a top 3. We need a high level dman who is 21-22 years old (not 18 ) to fit the cluster given their development curve. Just draft Yak and be done with it unless some is willing to drop an OEL or similar into your lap.

    3. I have no issues trading Gagner for a pick to get Reinhart, Murray or Trouba as long as a “real” NHL player is obtained to replace him – preferably a younger, bigger 2 way center.

    Hall Horov Yak
    Penner RNH Eberle
    Smyth xxx Hemsky
    Eager Belanger Jones

  81. prairieschooner says:

    For those saying that Sutter has not been interviewed what do you think Lowe and Tambi were doing for over 2 weeks at the worlds? Beers Dinners Days off and just working together..They know what they are getting with Sutter.

  82. Cactus says:

    Kris11:
    For God’s sakes. Lowebellini have brought us theVanek and Healey, debaucles, the Khabibulin deal,the Souray fiasco, Barker, Shit, Shit, and more Shit.

    The laughing stocks of the league for a half-decade.

    Kris, my point was that they had one season of idiot whale hunting (something that was possibly driven by Katz, given that it was his big dollars they were throwing around), followed by some years of losing, most of it designed losing. Our sample size of this team trying to be competitive under Tambellini is simply too small to say he’s irredeemable.

    Barker wasn’t an example of Tambellini being stupid. The Barker signing was a fine risk for a year when the Oilers weren’t going to make the playoffs. A signing like that this year would demonstrate flaws in though processes in management.

    I’ll happily jump on board this hate train if the Oilers spin their wheels this year. They finally have enough talent up front and they finally have something in the farm system (mainly D and G). The other thing people forget is that back in 2009, not only did the OIlers have crap on their NHL roster, they had crap in the farm system too. A rebuild takes a long time of you’re building up the NHL, AHL and amateur rosters all at the same time.

  83. prairieschooner says:

    The top of the Oilers D batting order is a tougher fix but the bottom of the order could easily have been improved over the past 2 years, but perhaps they did not really want that

  84. pboy says:

    According to Bob McKenzie, Jordan Staal has rejected a 10 year extension from the Pens. I wonder if he will be up for grabs tomorrow with, Nash and Louuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu?

  85. Woodguy says:

    prairieschooner:
    For those saying that Sutter has not been interviewed what do you think Lowe and Tambi were doing for over 2 weeks at the worlds? Beers Dinners Days off and just working together..They know what they are getting with Sutter.

    Sutter is on record saying he was not contacted about the Oiler’s HC job.

  86. Ribs says:

    Woodguy: Sutter is on record saying he was not contacted about the Oiler’s HC job.

    …And of course it’s not in his best interest to say this…Riiiiiggghhttt….

  87. bookje says:

    Woodguy:
    Cactus,

    No one ever cheered on my staff and paid $200 to watch them work

    To be fair, Shawn Horcoff’s wood sales last year were dismal.

  88. Woodguy says:

    Cactus,

    Tambellini signed a 3rd pairing Dman (Sutton) above market (1.5MM) instead of turning him into a 2nd round pick (market price last trade deadline)

    Small in the big scheme of things, but inefficiency in small things doesn’t lend itself to effciency in big things.

  89. Woodguy says:

    bookje: To be fair, Shawn Horcoff’s wood sales last year were dismal.

    Funny thing is I supplied the flooring for his house when he reno’d it.

    Very nice floor.

    Very, very nice house.

  90. Woodguy says:

    Ribs: …And of course it’s not in his best interest to say this…Riiiiiggghhttt….

    Why would he lie?

    If the Oilers wanted to interview him “formally” they would ask Feaster.

    If they decided Sutter wasn’t the guy after beers at WC, so be it.

    If he hasn’t been “formally” interviewed by now, that says lots.

  91. Woodguy says:

    pboy:
    According to Bob McKenzie, Jordan Staal has rejected a 10 year extension from the Pens. I wonder if he will be up for grabs tomorrow with, Nash and Louuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu?

    Heard today that his wife and Eric’s wife are very close.

    He is also very close to Eric (natch) and they want to play together.

    The question is, if you are CAR do you trade for him, or just wait until he’s UFA?

  92. Ducey says:

    Woodguy: Sutter is on record saying he was not contacted about the Oiler’s HC job.

    I think the point was that although he may not have been “interviewed”, they likely talked some hockey, probably discussed his philosophy and the Oilers, and certainly saw how he ran things from up close.

    The interview probably wasn’t necessary.

  93. skinny65 says:

    Right at the end of tambo’s press briefing he mentioned what I thought was a tell on Yak. He said that the scouts lists hadn’t changed since the middle of the year. I’ve got to believe they are going to take yak and this will keep me from drinking at 8am tomorrow thinking Dithers is going to mess up the layup. Course by 2pm, I’ll be hearing rumors and have convinced myself that Burke is going to sell us some magic beans, and it’s beer oclock at that point.

  94. Woodguy says:

    I’m going on record saying the dark horse for trading down is NYI, not TOR.

  95. LP says:

    Woodguy: Spector is also on record as saying Cam Barker is a top 3 Dman in the NHL.

    Yes, he did. Doesn’t take anything away from his experience reading into what he thinks will happen at the draft.

    Assessing quality players is one thing. Assessing what he thinks the team will do is another.

    All the other reports seem to point at Yakupov going 1st to the Oilers.

  96. jb says:

    LP: This.I feel relieved. Finally.

    You only feel relief now that an unconnected Spector has concluded this? I’m not following.

  97. spoiler says:

    What is Tambo tellin Rishaug on the Milton Berle right now?

  98. Lowetide says:

    They are looking for character, the “right” person.

  99. Cactus says:

    Woodguy:
    Cactus,

    Tambellini signed a 3rd pairing Dman (Sutton) above market (1.5MM) instead of turning him into a 2nd round pick (market price last trade deadline)

    Small in the big scheme of things, but inefficiency in small things doesn’t lend itself to effciency in big things.

    I’m still trying to determine why this was widely regarded as an overpay. Some people talk about it as if it were egregious and it doesn’t seem to be.

    I don’t have time to do a proper average of this (perhaps for a time later this summer, but a quick scan through capgeek shows that the average for a bottom pairing defender is around that level. There are definitely a few teams carrying sub-$1M d-men, but also a lot that have $2M+ guys in their 5 and even 6 slot.

    With a cap of $70M, $1.5M to Sutton is at worst, a slight overpay in the range of $100-200K (and that’s certainly questionable). The Oilers get someone who was successful in a limited role and a known quantity. That’s really not a strike against Tambellini in my mind.

  100. Kris11 says:

    Cactus,

    They had enough talent up front last year.

    These years of losing are burning up RFA years.

    I’d argue that they were trying to win last year. They were trying to lose a few months before it became apparent that they were in line to draft Hall.

    All we really know is that they have been good at losing for a long time. We don’t know that losing was intentional.

    I’m curious. Would you give the same defense for Garth Snow? Don’t criticiz him because he’s trying to lose?

  101. Kris11 says:

    And did this management group at one time think that Gagner, Cogliano, and Nilsson were the core to build around? That was a misstep, too, no?

  102. spoiler says:

    Lowetide:
    They are looking for character, the “right” person.

    Thanks. The “right” person has been a theme during the whole Tambo regime.

  103. Cactus says:

    Kris11,

    You’re kidding yourself if you thought they had enough up front last year. Only Hall broke even by underlying metrics against the toughs.

  104. Kris11 says:

    The character comments make me think it’ look like they’ll draft Murray at 1st overall. Who knows. That seems dumb as shit to me, given that you can move Yakupoz for a fortune, if you don’t like his character, as long as he develops as projected. Let’s hope Murray (or Reinhart?) is Dought/Petrangelo good.

    I’d guess that Columbus keeps Yakupov and deals Nash for a package for the 5th plus. TO will also grab Luongo somehow. And while I’m oredicting, I’ll guess that the Oilers move MPS for a youngish D-man. H-bomb will give us a recipe for the Murray-Wall-Banger, Vic Ferrari amd Dennis will reappear from the secret militia they have apparently joined, and all the Oilers blog writers will gove up their blog-jobs to come back here and post as commenters, as God intended. (This comments page was something to behold once upon a time.)

  105. jb says:

    Kris11:
    The character comments make me think it’ look like they’ll draft Murray at 1st overall.

    What are you going on about? How does Murray have more character than Yakupov? If anything it’s the other way around… You made this assumption how?

  106. Kris11 says:

    Cactus,

    The Other teams toughs had better D. That was a big part of the story.

    Tambellini could’ve traded a middling pick/prospect or two to add some veterans at D and F. (Alot of these guys are fairly cheap.) That would’ve been a decent team. Maybe you add at the deadline, too.

    Winning teams try to win. If they fail enough, the GM gets let go. The Oilers try to lose so that the GM can say, look at the young guns we have next year.

    Heaven help us if somehow we get a Souray situation or a career ending injury for one of Hall or RNH. Or maybe the new CBA allows teams like the Rangers to offer sheet certain young stars at levels that are exceptions to the general cap..and Crosby’s and Lindros’s don’t always stay healthy or want to play where they are drafted) Maybe RNH never figures out how to hit it out of the park at ES. If that happens, years of losing hockey become meaningless. That’s a huge risk of this strategy. You spend years losing, and the piayer you got is lost.

    And what if the Oilers had tried to make good trades and signings. Christ, you can occasionally find a Penner or Pisani undrafted, You can trade for Staois’s and Smiths. Indeed, if you can get a pretty good team with players on value contracts, then you can attract a Chris Pronger signing. Then you can win the Stanley Cup if your goalie doesn’t get hurt.

    Anyway, I’m glad we agree that Tamblowini’s job is finally on the line.

    And I am very excited about Hall and RNH and now Murray, I guess. But we could’ve had some great teams these last years filled with excellent players if we’d had a good GM.

  107. Kris11 says:

    jb,

    Sorry. I mean to say that the Oilers think that Murray has more character and poise than Yakupov.

    I mean Yakupov’s interviews make him sound different than the paradigm of “character” that you see in RNH and Hall. Yakupov tells weird jokes. He boasts about “beating Canada.” I love it, but I bet Lowe and Tambellini don’t. Not enough poise.

  108. Kris11 says:

    Cactus,

    Oh and I think all the Oilers forwards, especially those playing the toughs, would’ve looked better if the Oilers could’ve iced D-men capable of playing against the other teams toughs. That’s a big deal. IMO.

  109. jb says:

    Kris11:
    jb,

    Sorry. I mean to say that the Oilers think that Murray has more character and poise than Yakupov.

    I mean Yakupov’s interviews make him sound different than the paradigm of “character” that you see in RNH and Hall. Yakupov tells weird jokes. He boasts about “beating Canada.” I love it, but I bet Lowe and Tambellini don’t. Not enough poise.

    Would you rather have someone who sits back and takes things as they come, or someone who goes out there and makes things happen on your team?

    I’ll take another Hall.. Play em together, play em on separate lines.. it doesn’t matter. You’ll have to pay top dollar no matter how you acquire them..

    I have no doubt Murray’s a solid player.. but we’re in need of Veteran defensemen.. not an 18 year old who’ll inevitably make mistakes playing on the 3rd pairing for a few years…

    I don’t think you can really judge Yak based on exactly what he says to the media… he’s young, confident, and Russian obviously..

  110. Cactus says:

    Kris11,

    I guess that’s where we disagree. I see the efficacy in a complete rebuild. I don’t like the years of losing, but I like the hopeful feeling I have more than the years of finishing between 7 and 10. Hell, even when the Oilers were able to get big time players in trades (Pronger, etc), they still just made 8th (albeit, in large part because of goaltending). This team wasn’t a replacement for Barker and Khabibulin away from the playoffs last year. Any more improvement than that is simply unrealistic (seriously, if you or anyone else had the plan to land two better bottom six forwards, two top 4 d-men and a new goalie, please put it forward. Do note, however, that said plan must actually be realistic and achieveable.).

    As I’ve said before, I don’t think a lot of us have fully realized just how terrible this team was between 2008-10, not simply at the NHL level but throughout the organization. There was a dearth of talent because of bad drafting. Management and scouting had gone off the rails. There was no clear development system, with no consistent AHL team. Ownership was a massive committee. This was an organization in seriously bad shape. Honestly, if they somehow make the playoffs this year I will consider it a remarkable turnaround based on the starting situation.

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