THE GAME IS AFOOT
Turns out Igor Larionov has one more skill to add to what was an amazing range of skills: news breaker. Larionov’s interview at Oilers Nation with Andrey Osadchenko is well worth the read.
The interview is here. There are some uncomfortable moments (like the one above) because Larionov is clearly in the know. Example:
- Larionov: Tambellini told me: ‘We like him. We want him. But we’re going to make a decision the day before the draft’. I also know the Habs want to get one of my guys – either Nail or Alex [Galchenyuk]. So do the Leafs. It is possible that the Leafs are going to trade their draft pick and get both of them. There is a possibility like that. Nail and Alex went to New Jersey for Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Finals. After this they met Leafs GM Brian Burke. Then Nail met with the Habs.
The uncomfortable bit is the possibility that Burke and Tambellini will do business. A scenario where Toronto deals up for 1-2 ala the Sedins is a long shot, but the Leafs do have some nice things (Gardiner, Gunnarsson, Schenn, Franson, Kulemin, Bozak, #5 overall, Brad Ross, Nazem Kadri, Matt Frattin).
It’s a long shot, as Toronto would need to satisfy both Edmonton and Columbus to be sure of getting their men. I very much doubt it happens, in fact there are very few people who would even be credible suggesting the scenario.
However, one of them is Igor Larionov.
I suppose there is some different between “Montreal wants” and “Montreal is fer sure going to take”, but I wonder how happy the Candians are about Larianov sharing their draft list?
Speaking of Larianov, his former KLM linemate, Vladimir Krutov, passed away in Moscow today.
http://themoscownews.com/sports/20120606/189812532.html
I think Montreal’s exposure is pretty low based on Edmonton not inviting one of their players for the royal tour, and Columbus likely steering clear of both players. Having said that, you’re right. Loose lips.
spottheloon: Just read that, very sad. What a wonderful line KLM was.
Lowetide,
Sad indeed. The entire Green unit was something to behold.
Depending upon the return, trading the 1st overall might be ok. Burke tends to be pretty determined and willing to pay a high price once he sets his sights on something. He feels he wins a trade if he gets what he wants (regardless of what he pays). If Tambellini and co are reluctant trading partners, they could get a good return and still pick 5th overall. I guess we will wait and see.
I still think the Oilers pick first and pick Yakupov.
Interesting interview by Larionov. It almost makes me wonder if he is attempting to influence the draft of his clients. He did say in the interview that he is vested in his clients going to a place where they can succeed. I wonder if his comments are designed to influence the “brain trust” in Edmonton and shake them up a little so that they will be sure to take Nail first overall. Whatever the case, his comments are certainly interesting to read.
This is just posturing, just like all the high pick GMs are posturing.
Would the Leafs give us a top pairing defenseman or a big second line center? If not, no deal. One of Schenn, Gardiner, Franzen and Gunnarson may end up as a top pairing guy one day, but so may one of Klefbom, Marincin, Gernat and Musil.
Also, if Tambellini ends up getting fleeced by Burke in giving up this pick, then we can look forward to riding him out of town on a rail.
Yeah, because getting fleeced by Brian Burke sure sent Kevin Lowe packing!
Thats not even fair to say, these are two totally different situations. Having to trade Pronger vs ifadealblowsourminds trading of the #1….beside that, Smid and Ebs have turned out ok, I’m thinking;)
russ99,
We could always ride him out on the rails anyways… He’s made enough decisions that piss people off that I’m sure enough of Oilers fandom would be pleased to see him go.
Hard to defend a guy whose known as Toonces.
Can anyone see Larionov doing this kind of negotiating in the media regarding Yakupov’s free agent contract in 5 or 6 years? I can, and I can see him threatening a move to the KHL to increase the price.
This kind of stuff starts to take the shine off Yakupov for me.
Gardiner + 5th overall + one of Colburne/ Ross/ Ashton for the 1st and Eager.
As Schultz seems to be going to Toronto to join Gardiner, maybe he changes his mind and comes to EDM instead.
But that’s just why Burke is never going to trade Gardiner.
The focus on trading the draft pick has taken attention away from where it should be: fleecing the Leafs or the Rangers as they shed salary in order to take on Nash.
The way I see it Kulemin and Dubinsky are both likely to be available though they could be included in a Nash deal. Still the principle holds, target teams near the cap and take on slighlty overpriced players for prospects.
Other targets: Stafford and Meszaros
If something happens involving the Leafs and Oilers, I truly hope that Nazim Kadri is not involved. Ever since junior this guy has been massively overrated. For instance, overplaying him was one of the main reasons that Hall and Eberle didn’t walk away with another gold medal at the WJC.
There are some talented guys in Toronto, but if Burke wants #1, you have to make him fork over proven talent and that #5 pick, plus a premium. Guys like Kadri and Gustavsson don’t cut it.
russ99,
Well, I ‘m a pretty casual media observer, but i don’t see much of anything coming out of Bergevin or Snow, let alone posturing. It’ll likely come to nought, but a Edm-CBJ-TML draft day storyline is making progress anyway (if not an actual trade…in reality!) Kudos to LT and others for making such interesting stories to keep us fans going until the draft.
LMHF#1,
Agreed. What’s the book on Colborne? Ready to bust out, long slow pork loin roast of development, or teetering on bust?
Tambellini told me: ‘We like him. We want him. But we’re going to make a decision the day before the draft’.
I wouldn’t expect Tambellini to say anything different to Yakupov’s agent.
All I can say about Larionov is I have an autographed bottle of one of his wines (2005 Triple Overtime Pinot Noir, Sonoma). I’m not sure how he is as an agent, but he was brilliant at hockey and makes a good fermented drink.
Also sad about Krutov. When I was a kid the KLM line used to scare the bejesus out of me. Seriously, I was afraid of all of them. Who knew that Messier was the psychopath and Larionov was the renaissance man?
Lowetide,
and Columbus likely steering clear of both players.
Aaron Portzline wrote that Howson and Patrick visited Yakupov at him home in Sarnia back in March.
I’m not so sure that CLB is not in the Yakupov business if they get a shot at him.
Hard to know. I haven’t seen near as much of him. If he was included, it would be imperative that he is in essence, icing on the cake. We’re talking about a guy who is only a few months younger than Gagner.
What happens if Burke loses his 1st round pick due to a tampering charge?
Ducks have paperwork set to be filed the minute Schultz signs.
mustang,
Oh, that’s so cute. Someone who actually thinks Lowe got the best of the Pronger situation!
Fine trade the pick. Trade next years too. Im ok with us looking to move draft picks for someone that will look good in an oilers jersey today. Straight up trade that pick for something great. What im not ok with is any form of trading down. Trading in a homerun for a couple extra at bats is insane. I dont want Schenn and a 5th.
I cant see Katz letting this happen. Is he an billionaire by accident? Would Tambo even be to blame if it did happen?. My biggest fear is a draft day fleecing and us not knowing who to be mad at a year down the road.
P-Ow,
Well, Lowe’s hands were tied as to where he could send him, and it’s not his fault that Joffrey Lupul looked awful for us then blossomed with Philly, and then again with the Leafs this year.
And also, there’s this: http://www.edmontonsun.com/2011/11/29/jones-pronger-trade-revisited
Besides, Lowe helped us win 5 cups. All Tambellini has done (so far) is put us in the basement.
That’s crazy. Kadri stock/reputation has fallen way below his actually ability. The way people talk about him you would think he was nothing. What he is is someone who scored almost a pt/game in the AHL as a 20 year old. He’s easily the best forward prospect on the Leafs. Colborne and Ashton don’t score enough. Frattin scores but is also older. Of the four only Kadri and Frattin have decent chances to be good players. Ashton is still young and could blossom I guess. He’s certainly more valuable than Pitlick for instance. Colborne is way down, though.
In any case based on pedigree and performance Kadri is the most underated player not in the NHL right now. He’s the Leafs version of Paajarvi but with better performance. He’d be a great buy low candidate.
As much as I enjoy toying with the idea as a way to “enjoy the draft” (our SC), I agree with this. Homerun for homerun, not for two doubles (even stand-up ones).
P-Ow,
No one is saying he got the best of it. The difference is he did a mediocre job of playing a bad hand, whereas if Toonces screws this up he will have done a bad job of playing a great hand.
I’m sure I’ve read this somewhere, but could a deal between the Oil, Clb, and Tor not be had? With Clb grabbing the one and two spots? Galchenyuk/Yakupov is a good combo to sell the Blue Jacket fans after the loss of Nash.
Tor gets Nash, Clb gets the fifth, Edm gets the Johan and 5th or some combination there of? Does Howson have the stones to pull something like this off?
Rosco11,
I think Lowe would trade Yak for Johan and the 5th in a heartbeat.
I’m not a fan of this idea that we can give up a dollar asset (Yakupov) for a 35 cent asset (Gardiner) a lower pick in a weak draft and other pieces just because we want to sigh Justin Schultz.
Neither are top pairing guys now, and likely won’t be for at least 3 years, so is it about building a roster that can sustain a winning club starting now or a quick fix to let buddies play together?
Agree on Larionov. Kudos to him for being upfront, but yeah, see him being quite “involved” in his players, not necessarily in a good way.
You may be under rating Gardiner quite a bit here by saying he’s worth only 35 cents of a yak dollar.
21 years of age
6’2″ 190…great skater…great shot.
30 points in 74 games played in the NHL
11 points in 15 AHL playoff games.
Was second among the Leafs defense in ESTOI, 3rd in PKTOI and 3rd in PPTOI.
Looks like a very good #3 D with great top pairing potential to me.
Ducey,
Can anyone see Larionov doing this kind of negotiating in the media regarding Yakupov’s free agent contract in 5 or 6 years? I can, and I can see him threatening a move to the KHL to increase the price.
This kind of stuff starts to take the shine off Yakupov for me.
So you’d rather take a player represented by a good Canadian agent like Don Meehan or Ritch Winter?
Honest question: do you watch how he plays the game? Do you believe it will translate to NHL success? I certainly do not.
You’ll get no argument from me that most of the Leafs prospects stink.
No difficulty moving the #1. None. Just think if you are trading away a 35 goal scorer you had better hit a freaking home run. Not Nazem Kadri and other flotsam and jetsam. We had better get a very good D man, a high pick and a serviceable 3rd line player. Have no doubt Leafs can give us #5 and Frattin but not sure what D man they give us that plays in our top pairing?
I realize it does not have same cache as other trades discussed here but would you accept Gormley, Hanzal and a swap of Yotes#1 for 1st overall and our #2 ? It gets us a D man ready to play in real role in 1-2 years (fits Rickibear’s WJHC allstar D man theory
) fills our crying need for a large 2C and till gives us a later 1st round pick (19th)
More importantly I could see Don Maloney doing this type of deal
LMHF#1,
I literally have never watched Kadri play. However, the evidence that minor league success translates to major league success is very strong across sports. Moreover, in the specific case of hockey when it doesn’t translate it is almost always related to skating ability (see Alex Giroux) which as far as I know is not a problem for Kadri.
The numbers say that Kadri can score at the NHL level and if you can score in the NHL you can play in the NHL no matter how suspect defensively he may be. The only thing to worry about is whether he is benefiting from the percentages (he isn’t) or lots and lots of playing time (not that I’ve heard and highly unlikely on that team).
Judgement on how he plays only introduces subjective bias into the equation that distorts far more than it adds.
TheOtherJohn,
That’s terrible. Simply terrible.
And yet, I roll mostly on judgement. Especially with guys like him. My conclusion is based on the visual, with consideration of the numbers and his age of course.
What I take issue with is that you state what you did, with confidence, without ever having seen the guy play. That’s nuts. It is precisely why I have disputes with the stats-only guys.
I’ve always concluded that knowing which guys are real and which are not, is in the why and how of their game, rather than simply the what.
I’ll even dispute your point on Giroux. His problem is laziness and stupidity.
Jean-Francois Jacques scored 24 goals in 65 games in the AHL as a 20 year old.
The following year he put up 0.93 PPG as a 21 year old.
Kadri sucks.
You are not the smartest person in the room.
LT,
Have you read the latest article by Redline re: Nail Yakupov?
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/columnist/woodlief/story/2012-06-06/nhl-draft-red-line-top-forwards/55421698/1?csp=34sports&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+UsatodaycomSports-TopStories+(Sports+-+Top+Stories)
No. I don’t have a problem with his nationality. In fact, until now, I had understood him to be a pretty honourable guy, something I would not say about at least one of the guys you mentioned.
I do have a problem with him going to the media at this stage and “spilling the beans” in terms of conversations he has had or even speculation on what might happen. Most agents would not do this.
Either he does not know what he is doing, values self promotion over his clients’ interests, or is trying to advance his clients interests through the media – a dangerous proposition.
If in 5 years he wants to go to Tambo privately and say “Pay Nail $X or we explore options in the KHL”, I would kind of expect that. However, if he does this in the media, in Edmonton, it raises the spectre of negotiations gone bad from the past, and hurts the franchise and the fanbase.
Is Nail worth all that?
Congrats to Samuelsson on getting himself into the top 10. Still hoping he’s there after round 1.
I’m sure I’ve read this somewhere, but could a deal between the Oil, Clb, and Tor not be had?
I fooled around with that yesterday
Oilers get the 5th
Toronto gets Nash
Columbus get the 1st
The problem is moving all the bits around to even things up.
It getes pretty complicated pretty fast.
To get Johansson + the Fifth, they’d probably have to throw something else in.
I realize it does not have same cache as other trades discussed here but would you accept Gormley, Hanzal and a swap of Yotes#1 for 1st overall and our #2 ?
Done. Send me over the paperwork.
At no point in there careers are Jacques numbers comparable to Kadri’s. You are being highly disingenuous, even DSF like, to suggest that they are. For instance the year that you say Jacques scored at almost a point a game in the AHL was only 29 games and omits the 37 games he played in the NHL that year scoring zero points (while playing 8 minutes a game) and the 11 playoff games in the AHL he played, scoring only 3 points. The analogy is DSF like in its dishonesty.
And I’m the smartest person in every room. This room is no different in that regard.
LMHF#1,
So if I had watched him five or ten times, I should base my conclusion on that? The point isn’t that visual judgement isn’t important, it’s that it’s relevance shrinks in the face of the accumulation of data. It is much better at making fine distinctions in small samples but it can’t compete with the law of large numbers.
That’s a terrible trade. The Yotes first round pick is in the later half of the round of what sounds like a weak draft. That’s basically nothing, magic beans. So it’s Yakupov for Gormley and Hanzal. Trading a star player for two players that aren’t stars is good way to go backwards.
TheOtherJohn,
Thats a brutal trade. No way.
Well, we renewed Toonces. Not a surprise. His job is on the line. No garbage signings and keep the #1.
Ok but while I’m at it … how close to fair is Lucic and Hamilton for Yakapov? Would we need to add a 2nd?
Really? I’m pretty sure every Baseball Manager in history would take back-to-back doubles over a solo shot homer and an out. Obi Wan says, “This is not the metaphor you’re looking for.”
You would need a GM on the other end willing to trade those two players. You need Mike Milbury.
I haven’t checked the CBA on this, but I don’t think both Columbus and Edmonton can get the 5th overall, lol.
spoiler,
Ahhh Alice, the key is in the back to back. Back to back gets you down the rabbit hole too, true. So on one level (the Eat Me level), you are right. On the Drink Me level, where the pick and player have at bats in different innings (as well they might, being at different ages and stages of development), then pounding one out and sitting down again may be best.
Have I tortured enough metaphor for one post (i hope so!)?
I could be wrong but isn’t PHO #1 pick sitting at 27 after they made it to the conference finals..?
I’m fine taking Yak #1 unless somebody grossly overpays, and even then, it’s gotta make sense.
Gerta
You are right Phx does pick 27th.
i would then swap out Anaheim 2nd (21013) for our #2 in 2012
Trade 1st OV and Ana 2nd (13) for Hanzal, Gormley and 27th overall
Kadri is Gagner only slower, less offense and less grit.
p.s. that is not a compliment
You’d obviously prefer to have seen him more often, but what’s your opinion of your own hockey knowledge? Some can pick em, some can’t. Some know why, some know what, some both. Obviously both is best.
Also, isn’t an individual hockey player a small sample himself, if you think about it? It doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things if 45% of player ‘x” prototype makes it and contributes, it matters if the exact player(s) you’re looking at will make it. I understand the approach you’re suggesting, I just disagree with for many reasons.
Maloney is on record as saying he’d move the 27th pick for (insert here-I think he’s looking for forward depth)
I’d like to see the Oilers try to move up from 32 to 27 and then see if they can deal their way into the 15-20 range and take whatever D prospect is left in that range.
Trading down from #1 is full of landmines-just take Yak and see if yoiu can grab something else useful by dealing up from 32.
I think that the Oil better be careful with any trade they make. They should be trading three Jacks for a King. They are already dangerously close to the 50 contract limit.
I just can’t see any deal that realistically makes sense for both teams though. The Oilers don’t just want any D from this draft – they want Murray or Reinhart. If they trade down they have to go to a spot where at least one of them is still there. Murray might be gone after 2 and McKenzie said recently that a number of teams have Reinhart in their top 5, if they really want one of those 2 they would have to trade with a team with a top 5 pick.
The teams in the bottom 5 all have lots of holes to fill this off-season – that’s how they ended up with such good picks. They are all likely to get a very good to elite player with their pick if they just stay put. So why would any of them want to give up anything of any value to move up, let alone one of their best young players ie. Gardiner, Subban, Johansen, Hamonic?
I strongly suspect that the Oilers don’t get an offer that’s even close to good enough for them to move down, so they’ll keep the pick and take Yakupov.
Marc,
I tend to agree with all of that-unless Burke or one of the other top 3 GMs loses his mind we’ll be taking Yak.
Your entire argument is that Kadri is special based of his AHL numbers so why would I include JFJ’s NHL numbers?
Try and keep the goal posts in one spot.
You admit that you have never seen Kadri play and then act like an authority on what he is or isn’t.
Its quite sad, actually.
His offense isn’t strong enough to overlook the other areas of his game. I would take him on waivers but that’s it.
But that trade is awful for the Oilers. In that scenario why are we giving them a second round pick? That comes down to Hanzal and Gormley for Yakupov which unless Gormley becomes a star is an abomination of a trade. What are the chances of Gormley becoming a star? 10%? In any case, he profiles as a solid player, but not a star. Dreadful.
LMHF#1,
I think it is pretty clear that even seasoned observers are pretty bad at picking them.
Any Phoenix trade that doesn’t include the words Ekman-Larsson or Yandle in it, is a non-starter.
The Law of Large Numbers does not apply to this circumstance. You are trying to predict a single outcome (Kadri’s), not the average of all outcomes.
So, I guess this room is different.
No one talking about Tambo’s new deal he just got.
So if I had watched him five or ten times, I should base my conclusion on that? The point isn’t that visual judgement isn’t important, it’s that it’s relevance shrinks in the face of the accumulation of data. It is much better at making fine distinctions in small samples but it can’t compete with the law of large numbers.
The data when it comes to prospects is incomplete. Its one thing to look at the NHL stats of a 28 year old and use them to predict his future output. This seems to work if you have TOI, zone starts, QofC, etc. With a minor league/ amateur player you don’t have this info. Is he playing lots of PP or easy minutes? Has he physically matured? Is he struggling with being away from mom? Is he making a living off other good players?
Rob Shremp put up some sweet numbers, but watching him play you could tell he wasn’t going to be an NHL player. Ryan Martindale put up nice numbers, enough that the Oilers couldn’t ignore him in the 3rd round, but the scouts have always questioned his effort. So far the scouts are right, the math is wrong.
Ideally you look at stats and “saw him good” to make a decision. The more information the better.
I’m just really glad that Larionov’s quote didn’t come out of Ryan Murray’s agent. I don’t think I could’ve endured another round of the wailing and gnashing of teeth from some of the people around here when there’s even a shred of positive news regarding Murray.
With that said, Tambelllini probably will tell the same thing to Murray, Grigorenko, etc. The Oilers want all these prospects. It’s just that they’ll only be able to draft one.
I think Igor Larionov will make a great NHL coach one day.
Meh….just a formality today. Only thing comforting is It looks like it’s only a 1 year extension.
SK Oiler Fan,
Mutli year according to Tambellini.
God help us all.
SK Oiler Fan,
Terry Jones on Twitter “It’s a virtual certainty Tambellini got a three year deal.”
FFS, What a joke. Either Batman has been sampling his own drugs or its confirmed – the directive from him was 3 straight lottery picks or your fired.
COME ON!
For centers who played 18 to 22 year season in the modern era his start is 20th best.
right there with.
Thorton
Lecavalier
Marleau
J. Staal
When they finnished there core strength development the bottom 3 averaged .80 PPG for ages
23-25
look at gagner’s game logs. when he plays with top end players he is a .875PPG player.