ABOUT JUSTIN
The Oilers have signed Justin Schultz and we’re all excited. What kind of player is he?
Stand back, I don’t know how big this is going to get. There’s plenty of good news on Justin Schultz.
- Hockey News Draft Day Profile: Scouting Report: As a rookie in the BCHL, he tied for the team scoring lead among defensemen with 40 points in 57 games in 2007-08. He added eight points in 11 postseason contests… was named Defenseman of the Year in the BCHL’s Interior Conference last year… has committed to the University of Wisconsin, where he will play with fellow 2008 draft-eligible defenseman Jake Gardiner… will need to fill out his 6-1, 163-pound frame in order to maximize his pro potential… was rated 38th among North American skaters in Central Scouting’s final rankings…
- Corey Pronman: Schultz is a player defined by his puck possession skills which are easily high-end. He is a player who one NHL executive described as having “outstanding hockey sense and poise with the puck.” Schultz can make special plays because of his high-end if not better vision and offensive instincts. If you want a defenseman who can control a power play, make great outlets, be creative with the puck, hit his passing targets through tight seams, and know when to join the rush, then Schultz is your guy.
- More Pronman: Schultz projects as a potential #2 defenseman in the NHL. While he should be able to log tough minutes, I don’t think he’ll be your best shutdown defenseman. He’ll be pretty good in that area, but he can be a team’s best power play guy. Keep in mind, though, that he only turns 22 in the summer and defensemen tend to have much more risk/variance on their projections than forwards when making that jump to the NHL. I love his talent level and I think he certainly can reach his projection, but due to his position I wouldn’t go say he’s a “sure thing” to do so, nor would I say he’ll peak in the next 1-2 years. The team that signs him could reasonably expect him to step onto their second pairing and be good on the power play from the get-go, which would be a great asset, with the ability to be even greater down the line.
- Thomas Drance: First of all, Schultz has serious pedigree. Gilroy and Brunnstrom were undrafted late-bloomers, whereas Justin Schultz was part of the ridiculously loaded 2008 defenseman draft class (along with Doughty, Pietrangello, Bogosian, Karlsson, Carlsson and Myers). The Wisconsin Badger was selected in the second round of that draft – two slots behind Canucks prospect Yann Sauve – and he’s been highly touted ever since. Secondly, when you look at the numbers, it’s pretty clear that Justin Schultz was the single best offensive defenseman not playing in the NHL this past season. He’s not the best blue-line prospect under the Sun (for my money, that presumptive title belongs to Bruins prospect Doug Hamilton), but at a minimum, Schultz looks like he’s ready to produce offense at the NHL level.
- Wisconsin web site: nation’s leading scorer on the blue line with 16 goals, 44 points and 1.19 points per game … was on the ice for 69 of Wisconsin’s 105 goals, 27 of UW’s 33 power-play goals and 10 of the squad’s 17 game-winning tallies
- Overall: 37, 16-28-44, 110 shots +11
- EV: 37, 9-17-26
- PP: 37, 7-11-18, 39 shots
I still can’t believe it. He choo-choo-chose us. Surreal.
Unrelated: I wonder where Kevin Dallman ranks on Drance’s list. I don’t think we’re the team to kick those tires, but it seems like somebody should.
We must be consistent LT:
Just like Tobias rieder who scored like Hall , Skinner, Seguin, Tavares, Kane.
Leading kitchner scorer @18 like D. Roy& M. Richards.
Leading performer in OHL playoffs.
your position is rieder may be a player.
So clearly you must have the same question for this wisconsin NHL poser.
Sorry for thread jack, but it’s hard to finish a conversation since a new post = dead conversation on the prior thread.
Fast Oil:
“Context is important. Players who are performing at an adequate level given their workload, place in the roster and experience aren’t the ones sinking the ship. Could there be upgrades? Sure.
The guys who IMO didn’t win their battles enough or cover basic role assignments:
Eager, Potter, Peckham, Jones – scored a bit but unreliable on D and IMO a weak forechecker.
Not NHL ready but played anyway:
Lander, Teubert
Hurt/Kaput:
Whitney, Khabinulin
That’s 35% of the roster. This is the problem IMO, not Horcoff and Smyth who were worked like rented mules until they pooped out, or Gagner who posted good second C numbers and improved everywhere. Or Hemsky after two shoulder surgeries and coming (pushed) back too soon.”
Not sure I follow your math. The four guys you singled out are bottom pairing dmen (or depth dmen) and fourth liners.
While I don’t disagree with your analysis of those players, I’m not sure that I agree with your conclusions.
I do obviously agree that Lander should not have played in the NHL last season.
1. Horcoff got eaten alive last year. His 5v5/60 flatlined and he is no longer a tough minutes centre.
2. Horcoff got eaten alive last year because Gagner needed shelter. If we had an upgrade on Gagner who didn’t need butter soft minutes, you could shelter Horcoff a bit.
3. The four worst offenders on your list are bottom pairing dmen/4rth liners including Jones who played above his pedigree.
How much impact do 4rth liners and bottom pairing dmen contribute to winning hockey games. Some for sure, but less so than other roster spots.
rickithebear,
I too have hiogh hopes for Rieder, but really he’s only been unworldly for a few months. the best few months for a player to turn unworldly, but I think Schultz has been on the top of his game for longer and therefore is a higher percentage bet.
You are certainly positioning yourself for one helluva toedasoe though, hope you get to say it.
No. This is an older, more proven prospect who has played 4 full seasons since his draft. We’ve seen one from Rieder, although he looks very good.
Ryan: Never worry about that stuff, I try to have something up 200 comments in but this week has been all over the place. Feel free to copy and paste.
speaking of Dmen.
I was at camp today and watched klefbom with a camera on his head leave after the first period.
never saw him again.
Was in Sherwood Park this weekend. I try to make it every year.
And this year I brought the camera.
Because I know some of the best fans can’t make the trip.
I recorded 25mins and had to trim it down to -15min.
Tough to do.
The coaches love this kid. Make no mistake. And YOU will too.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tk6CGI0nc-I
Enjoy.
Lowetide,
Lt: just kidding!
Stevezie. took a stand with goal to assit ratio on RNH. That did not go so well!
You’re a bugger!
Gret99zky,
whatever music you put on that video, you’re going to have to change it.
I watched Reider and Pelss closely today.If you didn’t know their number you could mistake one for the other.
Both are great skaters and about same size.I don’t think that either use their speed too well.
Reider had a couple of great chances and didnt cash .He usually buries these.Set up yak for one of his goals.
Reider with the way better hands.
Great video!
It was shot at 9am, downloaded at noon, origionally 30 mins, edited, rushed to print and took 3hrs to download.
The music stays the same.
Did you see the #64 or the guy named after the dog?
Question: one of the things MBS said about Yak was he never seemed to miss the net when he had a chance. Are you finding that to be true? Marksman?
Gret99zky,
That is awesome. Any chance you can make it available for mobiles?
Gret99zky,
if the music stays the same, i get this message from youtube:
This video contains content from UMG, who has blocked it in your country on copyright grounds.
Sorry about that.
i’m in the US. it may end up blocked in canada also.
gonna go back, how far we going back? way back! and it goes a little something like this…
i suppose you could also upload it to a different video site without copyright enforcing robots.
Darren Dreger @DarrenDreger
2 year deal, $9mil for Jokinen in Wpg. $4.5 aav
Good deal for Win, IMO.
Is that the music from Jaws? Awesome.
If you decide to swap the music…lots of royalty free tunes (with credit) here:
http://www.danosongs.com/
Thank you GRET99ZKY!! Much appreciated video for all the die hards who can’t be there.
This is well off topic but I’ve been meaning to tell RICKITHEBEAR that he is not alone in his support of Eager and that wrister playing with a skill line. It seems that everyone now believes that a player’s recent past performance is the only possible future outcome, especially once a player is no longer considered in his development years. I agree that it is smart to not expect a guy like Eager or Whitney to take a jump forward in their play, but the possibility of somebody getting a new opportunity and turning it into a career year shouldn’t be totally forgotten. It can and does happen. With a new coach in place, here’s hoping that we can try and get a great season out of some guys who are already here, (Eager, Belanger, Hemsky, Horcoff, Whitney, Peckham, Khabibulin) instead of always looking outside the organization to fill every perceived hole.
In my opinion what will go futher than the signing of some savior UFAs, is just a slight improvement by a good portion of the team, and I think that’s totally possible. For example, just watch what a small step forward by Dubnyk alone will do for us in the standings. We have seen some pretty good hockey players playing below their potential for a few years. Here’s hoping Krueger holds the key.
(Out of respect and appreciation for this great site I’ll use LT’s center first notation even though I’m not a fan.)haha
RNH – Hall – Eberle
Gagner – Eager – Yakupov
Horcoff – Smyth – Hemsky
Belanger/Lander – MPS/Harti – Jones
Stevzie: Schultz choo choo chose us! That was a lol. And I can’t believe it either, it feels so good, the tide is finally turning…
Now I’m of to get better aquainted with Reider as it sounds like I really missed something the last half of the season…He went OHL supernova?
Thanks.
First useful thing you’ve said in years.
You complete me.
i am managing to download it to view using the “stealthy” firefox plugin. very, very slowly.
That’s a good signing at reasonable money.
What does math say about Nik Antropov..? what kind of player is he..?..ie:quality of competition and how he was used last year..?
I heard rumours that WPG wasn’t thrilled with his season last year and he may be available.
I think one of the reasons that Shultz the Younger is so acclaimed is that he was universally thought to be the better prospect that Gardiner before last year (even though Gardiner was drafted ahead of him, Shultz had passed him since.)
Then Gardiner comes in and impresses the hell out of everyone in his rookie year and got votes for the Calder.
And our guy is supposed to be better.
Good times.
Woodguy,
between yakupov and schultz maybe the org finally wins a calder.
nah, impossible.
Injuries, Eastern bias, fates. That and vote splitting probably mean we are screwed.
Gerta Rauss,
we need nik kulemin and nik antropov to go with nik khabibulin and nik schultz.
they would go with the org’s collection of assorted ryans and taylors.
Nice centre depth for the Jets.
Jokinen
Antropov
Little
Slater
Burmistrov
Kyle Wellwood is available!
Chris Kreider.
With the Jokinen signing now done the floodgates should open soon and we will see some action now.
Jok gone now too, huh… well are there any more Cs out there worth looking at (not via trade)?
At any rate, I’m going to take this as a hopeful sign that we are sticking with Gagner.
I think it’s time I took ST at his word and waited until the big names shake out and the happy suitors and also-rans get a chance to re-evaluate their teams before looking to us for a deal… we may be 2-3 more days out before a legit opportunity for a deal.
Kreider’s PO audition will do wonders for him in the calder voting. if Henrique had his PO this year last year, I suspect he would have done better in the voting this year.
Yak will get a shot, Schultz maybe too… but we will get stiffed.
Kulemin: yes a potential goal scorer rom Russia
U22 20G scorers in RSl/KHL Frolov, Malkin, Ovechkin, Semin, Kuznetsov, Tarasenko, Kulemin, Omark……………………………uh! er! nevermind they do not get a chance on this team.
The closest thing I can find to a US college comp is fellow Badger Rafalski. And even then Schultz has better numbers and more size.
Fellow Badger Ryan Suter had a comparable freshman year but Schultz’s was a bit better. His dad Gary racked up over 50 points in his sophomore season at Wisconsin, but of course it was a different world back then.
Gret99zky,
Thanks a lot for that vid. Man, I wish I could have been there.
While I really like your choice of music, you can count me among the crazies who would like to hear the audio from the rink – the crossbars and crowd gasps. It would make it that much easier to produce, and avoid the copyright problems.
Couldn’t agree more. I’ve always been of the opinion that Eager had pretty soft hands for a guy whose main role is to be grinder/enforcer/agitator.
I would love to add Shane Doan but if we could add another Eager, a guy like Tootoo, I wouldn’t mind if Hartikainen spent another year ripping up the AHL.
Lol. And if Cam Barker would stop being so choosy and pick a suitor, maybe some team would step up to the plate and pick a Suter.
1 Scenario
To get Kulemin would be tricky probably a 3 way deal.
Toronto wants Paul Stastny , Toronto would give up Kulemin / MacArthur plus a Dman for him.
Edmonton would have to convince Colorado to take Kulemin instead of MacArthur.
Colorado would trade Kulemin to Edmonton for ?
Anybody else notice that TRAKTOR seems to be mellowing.
Kruger: when talking about Hordichuk indicated we need size and nasty to create space for the skill.
Hartikainen was referenced.
Eager, Harti, hordichuk with 3 sklled pairs?
Eager-RNH-Eberle
Hordichuk-Hall-yakupov
hartikainen-gagner-hemsky
Smyth-Belanger-Horcoff
Uh!
Sad that the CBA uncertainty means no rookie tournament this year. Would have loved to watch Yakupov, Schultz and Klefbaum rip it up.
I think I just threw up a bit in my mouth.
Antropov plays wing.
Wellwood had a ridiculously good year in terms of 5v5 Shots% when the score was tied or within one.
His WOWY show he wasn’t riding coat tails either.
May have turned himself into a player.
Riding the rubber band planes in the KHL might do that to a guy.
Might carve out a Dominick Moore type career for the next 3 years or so if he keeps it up.
Woodguy,
Is it not tempting to acquire Wellwood just to watch his one-man fan club fold quicker than a cheap suit?
every day is one day closer to Horcoff’s retirement.
Is it possible to target Getzlaf with some of our riches without parting with the jewels of the crown? Would.. Gags, Mps, Omark, Gernat and 2013′s 1st be a starting point. Some say that’s too much, some will say not enough.. I say try and get it down. If he’ll agree to a two hour Kruger session, before signing a extension..he’ll be ours gentlemen!
So… who are the comps?
I’m assuming being over a PPG as a D in the NCAA is uber rare… but obviously some guys have done it.
Who has at the same age as Justin? There must be a few comps laying around?
And no, I don’t even know where to begin looking, or I’d find it myself.
Haha!
He had an amazing year.
His history suggests its an anomaly, although strangers things have happened.
PDO,
http://www.uscho.com/stats/overall/division-i-men/2011-2012/
Matt Carle 47th overall
Justin Schultz 43rd overall
Matt Carle 2 years post draft: 43 13 31 44
Justin Schultz 2 years post draft: 41 18 29 47
Matt Carle 3 years post draft: 39 11 42 53
Justin Schultz 3 years post draft: 37 16 28 44
Schultz looks to be a better goal scorer than Carle who probably had a lot of assists passing the puck to Paul Stastny.
The following year Carle posted 11 goals and 42 points in the NHL.
Apparently Rafalski and Suter.
Mis-read, Antropov played C last year.
My mistake.
Jake Gardiner? A better Jake Gardiner with the same offense and better defense? I’ve seen some weird ones, Niedermayer and their NHLE’s are close
Schultz 15-25-40
Gardiner 8-26-34
Niedermayer was 81, 10-36-46 in the NHL at age 20 (!!!!) so I don’t think that’s ballpark.
speeds,
wow!! he had 2 points less than Kreider in 7 less games!!
Maybe the Calder is coming after all.
He’s clearly killing it in College and ready for the next step. His adjustment is the question mark. smooth, slow, horrible?
What about comparing Justin Schultz to Brendan Smith
Anyone notice the following in the Pronman quote Schultz is a player defined by his puck possession skills which are easily high-end. He is a player who one NHL executive described as having “outstanding hockey sense and poise with the puck.”
Hmmmm – Poise – I wonder which NHL executive that could be?
To be fair, I watched Schultz’ interview yesterday and all I could think was that this kid has a lot of poise for a 22 year old in front of the media.
If you change the end dates on that link I provided it goes back at least 10 years, so you might be able to pick some decent comps.
When I call someone a “Wellwood” it is NOT a compliment.
Brendan Smith pops up… and he’s all kinds of hyped.
… but so does Reid Cashman.
Worried I should be tempering expectations more than I am; the numbers are super impressive, and the coach said he’s better than Gardiner… but what if this isn’t the coup the hockey world thinks it is? ESPECIALLY if we don’t add another top 4 D..
And… if he’s either of those, we’re finally recovered from Pronger-gate.
Wellwood ISN’T a compliment? 2.15/60 5×5, with a ZS push and mid-level comp, he had a bullish CorsiRel. I expect he won’t sustain it but that’s a pretty good season no?
i want the season to start tomorrow.
DSF,
Well… I mentioned this the other day… I took a hiatus from the blogs for a while after the season ended… so correct me if I’m wrong…
but I seem to recall you mentioning Wellwood nearly every day, either here or at ON, and I seem to recall you using universally positive modifiers and wondering why we didn’t have a bargain 3rd line centre like Wellwood…
and now you are saying what? you’ve changed you mind… or I somehow radically misinterpreted your statements?
yes. that is correct.
I don’t. We still need another D.
And Winnik. And they need to trade Ryan Jones, Ben Eager, a defenseman and Linus Omark.
If Justin Schultz turns out to have a career arc like Lubo are we satisfied? That is who the scouting reports make me think of and I would be pleased as punch with that kind of return.
LT,
Do other teams want (regardless of whether they’re justified in doing so) the Oilers left-overs: Omark, Peckham, Jones, Eager, Potter, etc.?
I don’t see that a package of those guys gets you much more than other teams left overs. What do you expect as a turn in the fabled 2 for 1, quantity for quality trade? Am interested.
This isn’t a very scientific method, and I haven’t looked into deeply at all, but it kind of seems like if you combine “high draft pick” with “high scorer”, those players seem to have generally worked out pretty well. Obviously not a guarantee, just a thought.
Ok. how about a compromise? How about more vids of D. Camp?
I would take that. (plus Tyutin, Winnik a depth C and signing the RFAs)
oh… and ah… give Knox a grant:
http://www.metacafe.com/watch/an-DQSFbJtbnhbbt4/batman_1989_urgent_mattters/
I’d be satisfied with Lubo Jr. i suspect the kid will bring less offense than peak-Lubo (68 points!) but hopefully will have more 40+ point seasons over his career. Lubo is a unique player, IMO.
Buffalo now has 42 defenseman and 10 forwards (under contract) one of which is John Scott. Sekera would be ideal. If only we had forwards to spare….
Hell trade eager, jones, and peckham to get it done…. than sign Winnik or doan
eidy,
Totally agree that Sekera should be available, but does Buffalo want Peckham?
I think you’ve misinterpreted… He uses it in a Wellwood>>>>>>Gagner giggling to himself because Wellwood kinda sucks type of way.
Or he’ll attempt to prove that MPS is a bust because Wellwood has superior numbers, or something..
PDO,
i know i know we need another D – i want it to be Carle if we can somehow miraculously afford him long term – but there is still plenty of time to sign him and fly him into town before game time tomorrow night.
good question. A pick like a 3rd would be fine as well. Buffalo is not deep at forward and Jones and Eager might be 3rd line options for them. Jones 33 points would put him 5 on their list for points last year.
The most telling thing about Schultz was how many teams wanted him to dress for their club. He may bust, but that speaks volumes to the type of talent he is.
Strangers usually don’t call unless you have something they want, and Schultz took a lot of calls.
Got it… And here I thought DSF was committed to something… I won’t make that mistake again.
So Wellwood was all just a big “this guy sucks and your guy is worse than him hahaha!” kind of deal then?
Great.
Kris11,
All teams should want the Oilers leftovers. Would the LA Kings have won the cup without Greene, Stoll and Penner? What about the NY Rangers all those years ago?
Jokinen signs 2 yrs $9.0 mill in Winnipeg. Solid deal. Solid money. Winnipeg making a move.now if they could only draft.
DBO,
Don’t they still have to sort out E. Kane?
If he’s gone, they are in trouble. Otherwise… yes, they are on the move… who knows when Mark Schiefle is going to be superstar though.
ps. also are they going to be in our conference under the new scheme… it’s been so long I can’t remember (of course the NHLPA rejected it so… maybe it’s moot).
Wellwood put up lots of points riding shotgun to Sundin then got injured and drummed out because of his shortcomings (poor conditioning, no interest other than scoring). Vancouver gave him a shot and he’s since gotten himself into shape and become a defensively sound forward who can score a bit. I think a Dominic Moore type is exactly what he’s around in value now…even if his last season may not be repeatable.
Getting Yakupov and Shultz in little over a week can do that to a guy. Believe it or not, Traktor used to be pretty mellow. Well thought out though intense comments, moved the conversation forward type posts. Then as the team slid into oblivion so did his sanity it seems. The level of incompetence and mismanagement over the last 6 years could do that to a passionate fan though. I think the talent is bringing him back, but the same management team that caused the slide being in place is preventing a full recovery.
Get well soon Trak, I miss your circa Mikhnov posts.
Glad to read that Schultz has poise. Poise counts!
I apologize for not getting the stats, but from what I’ve read here and elsewhere I don’t think Gagner was being sheltered unusually, and Horcoff has always covered his bets. Did he decline a bit last year? Maybe, but he also had one of the toughest roles at centre in the entire league, on the second worst team, as an aging injury prone vet. His and Smyth’s condition at the year’s end are on management for not utilizing Belanger properly.
This goes directly to your last point. There is more difference in the bottom six and bottom pairing between good and bad teams than at the top of the roster. Usually it’s referred to as depth, completely necessary to win in the playoffs. There are really only a few Super elite players like Crosby and Malkin, everyone else has similar talent on the first line at least, generally speaking.
Belanger according to everything I’ve read has been a good second line centre through his career. If he would have been given decent linemates he could have split the toughs with Horcoff. Instead they assembled the worst 4th line in the league and Belanger took heat because he didn’t score playing with marginal or non NHL’ers.
The players I mentioned were the guys bleeding 5v5 chances and getting outplayed in their roles by opponents. Even if you changed all of the line up you didn’t like for better players, how would that stop the bottom guys I mentioned from getting worked? The problem isn’t the good players (which the Oilers have been fond of blaming and giving away – Gilbert, Brodziak, etc) it’s the bad players.
Jones is what as kids we used to call a “goal suck”. Only wants to score, won’t do the hard work. He likely tries on the PK because of the chance for breakaways. A bit worrisome because it pisses off the guys who do work or are actually offensive players. If they can’t deal him RK is going to sit him like last year unless he has a change of heart. Of course it’s unlikely a team is going to want the waiver wire pick up that won’t pull his weight and is unreliable. At least we know he has tweezers to get the pine slivers out.
More accurately, my point is that you can find Gagner level production pretty easily in the free agent market.
And wouldn’t you know it, Kyle Wellwood is available again.