ABOUT RYAN

The Edmonton Oilers are continuing the rebuild with some fine work so far this summer. Another ridiculous forward and a watershed moment in free agency when Justin Schultz chose our town.

The major issue for Oiler fans is defense. Why? Ryan Whitney’s injury. We knew about it long ago (Robin Brownlee has been the best source of info to my eye) and it had a tremendous impact on Whitney’s season. Make no mistake, a healthy Ryan Whitney is a quality NHL defenseman–outlet passes, excellent zone coverage, physical.

Whitney’s season is profiled here and perhaps the most important question was this one:

  • Let’s put it another way. Can the Oilers count on him? No. If Whitney comes to camp and can play 20 minutes a night effectively, the Oilers should consider that a major victory. But counting on it? No sir. It didn’t work out last fall and they shouldn’t count on it this one.

If the Oilers stand pat from now until training camp then I’d suggest the club must have some pretty good intel on his progress. In a Nation Radio interview with Jason Gregor in the spring, he suggested that Whitney’s inability to train last offseason set him back a lot and the big defender was never able to recover. That shouldn’t be a problem this summer, as Whitney himself told us he was not experiencing any pain after the all-star break.

In an article for the Cult of Hockey one month ago, Jonathan Willis took a look inside the numbers and posted interesting findings.

  • Over that first stretch – to mid-February – Whitney had a Fenwick score of +232/-321 over 24 games, meaning that the Oilers were recording 42.0% of positive events with him on the ice, while the opposition was recording 58.0%.  Over Whitney’s final 27 games, that Fenwick score jumped to +324/-345, meaning that the Oilers had 48.4% of positive chances to the opposition’s 51.6%.

So the question is this: how much can Whitney recover defensively? We know his sublime headman passes are still a part of his game, but will a summer of training improve his ability to turn?

It’s a huge bleeding deal, as the English would say. As time rolls on–and the Oilers don’t addres top 4 blue–is it reasonable to suggest they feel comfortable counting on the big man?

Godspeed Ryan Whitney. I have a feeling you’ll be playing a feature role in 12-13.

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112 Responses to "ABOUT RYAN"

  1. DBO says:

    If Whitney stays healthy our whole team changes. He may have the biggest impact on the season, and wow that is saying a lot. If he can regain 90% of his form, you can pair him with elder Shultz and you have the makings of a solid top pairing. Add Petry and Smid to that and you have 2 solid d pairings. It allows you to have young Shultz play with Sutton on 3rd pairing, with easier zone starts and managed EV minutes, then load the kid up with PP time.

    We still need another real dman. Sutton is best used as a 7th dman, who can play anywhere for short periods. I actually felt Sutton was solid last year, as long as he wasn’t overused. But a Rozsival would be a perfect fit = Right handed to balance out the lineup. Top 4 minute eater who plays PK (and was solid at PP, although Phoenix never used him there) and you can get him on a reasonable deal for like 3 years to bridge the gap to the Bomb.

    Smid-Petry
    Shultz-Rozsival
    Whitney-Shultz
    Sutton

    3 solid pairings with offense from all of them, and only one unproven kid, who happens to be 22 so not a real rookie. Best D lineup since the cup run, and our best shot at the playoffs.

  2. copperblueandwhite says:

    I follow Whitney on Twitter…no mention of training or physio….odd I thought for a guy that can’t turn right!!……

  3. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “I’d suggest the club must have some pretty good intel on his progress. ”

    Can off-season progress be tracked that effectively? And, doesn’t Whitney spend his spring/summers in MA?

    If I remember that right, I wonder how closely they actually are watching and also whether off-ice training can send false positive signals…

    “but will a summer of training improve his ability to turn?”

    I guess that is basically my question too. Can this be adequately tracked in the off-season, especially if he is on the other side of the continent?

    at any rate, I really, really hope he pulls through. it would be like gaining an amazing offensive right D for nothing (it’s all about perspective).

  4. jonrmcleod says:

    copperblueandwhite,

    Whitney this morning on Twitter:

    BPM mix on way to the gym. Do you love it @shattdeuces ? This is what I imagine being on speed feels like. I’m coming in hottt. #theveldt

    So at least he’s going to the gym. Hopefully he’s working on that ankle.

  5. jonrmcleod says:

    I should add that the above Tweet gives the impression that he’s in a good mood as he’s going to the gym. Though I can’t really make sense of what he’s saying other than “on way to the gym.”

  6. McSorely Head says:

    Hasn’t he also been Tweeting about going golfing? At least we know his ankle is strong enough to press the accelerator pedal in a golf cart.

  7. jonrmcleod says:

    One last Twitter note and then I’ll quit.

    When the Oilers drafted Yakupov, Whitney was excited, evidenced by the following tweet:

    Boys on the bus 2 and I’m Uncle Whitty

    He seems to be positive about the upcoming season. He must at least be hopeful that his ankle will be OK.

  8. Clay says:

    “Shultz” is the new “Gagne”.

  9. DBO says:

    Whitney is one of the funnier NHLers on twitter. If anyone is on it I suggest you follow him.

    Most NHLers will tell you that over the course of the year their conditioning gets better. but their strength gets worse. So if you have an injury and it’s not fully healed, it is rare if you actually improve. The fact that he came back early to help the team (and yes he helped, that is an indictment on how bad our D was last year that a 50% Whitney improved it) and seems to be the “cool old man leader” of the team makes me think that if he is healthy they’ll keep him around for 2-3 years. He is only 29, so he could realistically play 5-6 more years if his foot holds up (not a sure thing). Him and Shultz senior, along with Petry and Smid would be a solid group to add kids to over the next few years. If we want to compete for a cup we’ll need a few dmen around 30 years old. Can’t turn the keys over to the kids on the backend, and waiting for them to truly develop will only make us better and help our cap over the next 5-6 years. You know, that strange concept of “asset management”.

  10. McSorely Head says:

    Yakupov is the funniest (funny strange) on Twitter. I highly recommend him. And Esa TiKkanen.

  11. jp says:

    jonrmcleod:

    When the Oilers drafted Yakupov, Whitney was excited, evidenced by the following tweet:

    Boys on the bus 2 and I’m Uncle Whitty

    = Kids on the bus!!

    Sure hope he can heal up some. As noted, he was better in the later part of the year. Not where he needs to be, but better. There is hope.

  12. Chris Hext---formerly EasyOil--- says:

    “It’s a huge bleeding deal”

    As an Englishman, I can’t recall ever having used that phrase myself. My Dad on the other hand, probably every other day… That, and “bugger”.

  13. Bruce McCurdy says:

    McSorely Head,

    Esa is on Twitter? What’s his handle? Is he still speaking Tikkanese?

  14. Ribs says:

    Clay:
    “Shultz” is the new “Gagne”.

    What’s worse is that there’s two of them on the roster!

  15. nathan says:

    “Yakupov is the funniest (funny strange) on Twitter.”

    McSorely Head,

    Qu’elle surprise. The Anderson-lite turns out to be another Mork.

  16. jonrmcleod says:

    Ribs,

    Actually, there’s none. It’s “S-c-h-u-l-t-z.”

  17. cc says:

    DBO: The fact that he came back early to help the team (and yes he helped, that is an indictment on how bad our D was last year that a 50% Whitney improved it) and seems to be the “cool old man leader” of the team makes me think that if he is healthy they’ll keep him around for 2-3 years. He is only 29, so he could realistically play 5-6 more years if his foot holds up

    This is an interesting question. At what point do the Oilers consider bringing Whitney back and what would his cap hit be?
    If he recovers to the point of a top 4 defenseman, he’s going to be north of 4 million, but then it might not be economical for the Oilers to resign him.
    If he does not recover then the Oilers are likely a lottery team and he might be affordable? He’s appears to get along well with Eberle & Hall and could play the Strudwick role and help out on the bottom pairing for the right price.

  18. Gret99zky says:

    I hope Whitney and Hemsky can stay healthy.

    But then I hope it doesn’t snow in Edmonton and it usually does.

  19. G Money says:

    I still hope the Oilers get another legit NHL defenseman as insurance. BUT …

    A healthy Whitney is a true #1 D. He showed it two years ago during that half season when he had two working feet. Despite the shitty finishes of the last two years, the Oil actually started the seasons fairly well – last year it was NK playing all-world, and the year before that it was Whitney.

    As DBO said – the entire complexion of the D, and therefore the team, changes if Whitney is healthy and gives the team that 26 minutes a night of calm D and “sublime headman passes” (nice one LT).

    Better still, Whitney has been quoted (I wish I could find the reference now) that he likes it in Edmonton, sees the potential of the team, *AND WANTS TO STAY*. The anti-Pronger.

    Let us all pray to our respective deities (or currencies) that he is healthy – because I will go on record to say that the Oilers + Dubynyk #1 + Yak + Schultz Jr + a healthy Whitney is a playoff team.

  20. Ribs says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Ribs,

    Actually, there’s none. It’s “S-c-h-u-l-t-z.”

    Yep. At least we don’t have to see “Vishnovsky” typed out any more.

  21. Gerta Rauss says:

    I hope Whiteny recovers and can play effective minutes, but it’s a bad bet. Adding another NHL defenceman shouldn’t have to cost the Oilers a great deal, especially if they pick up a UFA on a 1 or 2 year deal.
    Whitney is our Sami Salo-when he’s healthy we’re a much better team.

  22. CrazyCoach says:

    Posted this yesterday, but here is a revised edition.

    “As one who has suffered probably every sprain, fracture, and trauma to their ankles over the years, and from what I’ve seen from behind the bench, ankles are notoriously slow to heal, slow to return to 100% mobility, and slow for a player to return to 100% in terms of mental readiness. The hard part in rehabilitation of an ankle is that you never quite feel confident in its strength, so you some times alter your skating which can lead to imbalances, etc. The strength doesn’t recover to 100% right away even if you are strengthening the muscles that support the ankle. For whatever reason, these muscles take time to build and strengthen, so you are playing at less than 100% strength. Strike one.

    Most ankle injuries require immobilization for extended periods of time and while the ankle is immobilized, your flexibility goes south. Less flexibility=limited range of movement=less force application=slow skating speed particularly turns. Physiotherapists can do wonders, but once again, it takes time, which is something a professional athlete doesn’t have. Less than 100% flexibility. Strike two.

    There’s also the issue of protection for the ankle as well, but this is more of a mental issue than a physical one. Mental readiness is the toughest obstacle to overcome for injuries, because there really is not set time or method that works for each player. Some players have an easier time than others, but the mental readiness is often overlooked. For a player like Whitney, there is additional pressure of being a veteran, raised expectations, etc. Combine that with the feeling of vulnerability when playing or even worse, playing, knowing full well that you are not 100% and hiding it from the coaching and training staff. Pride does this to a lot of players for a variety of reasons.

    There is also the fear of re-injuring the ankle again. Outside of Skate Fenders (wonderful devices) there is no protection for the ankle and the vulnerability is tough for a player to overcome.

    I know if I were Krueger, or the head trainer, I would insist Whitney wear Skate Fender ankle guards. If for nothing else, the placebo effect might work for his mental readiness. That and get him working with a sports psychologist.”

  23. Dipstick says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I believe that Whitney shoots left.

  24. nathan says:

    Lowetide,

    Great post. Looking forward to tomorrow’s entry in the About Ryan series. Who’s on second?

  25. Woodguy says:

    I looked at Whitney’s last 10 games uses VIc’s Head to Head TOI widget, and Vic’s Single Game Fenwick/Corsi widget. (note: Thanks again Vic!), so see if he was trending back up, and who he was playing against.

    Here’s what I found: (all games had Shultz as main partner)

    April 7 vs. VAN -8corsi Hansen, Booth, Lapieree

    April 5 vs ANA -4corsi Getzlaf, Perry, Blake

    April 2 vs LAK -14corsi Richardson, Kopitar, Brown

    April 1 vs ANA -2corsi Selanne, Cogliano, Koivu

    March 30 vs LAK -18corsi King, WIlliams, Richardson

    March 28 vs DAL -2corsi Benn, Burish, Ott

    March 25 CBJ +7corsi Savard, Prospal, York

    March 23 FLA -5corsi Fleishman, Weiss, Versteeg

    March 22 TBY +6corsi Stamkos, St. Louis, Malone

    March 20 NSH -13corsi Fisher, Kostitsyn, Erat

    So the Oilers were outshot by 53 shots in the last 10 games that Whitney was on the ice.

    Looks like he saw a mixture of comp, trending to about 2nd pairing, close to first pairing.

    I wouldn’t bank on more than 30 games playing 3rd pairing.

    I really hope he exceeds my expectations, he is one of the best 1st pass Dmen in the league.

  26. Woodguy says:

    Also,

    Link to single game corsi widget:

    http://timeonice.com/shots1112.php?gamenumber=21093

    Link to Head to Head TOI widget:

    http://timeonice.com/H2H1112.html?GameNumber=21093&submit=Go

    You can look at any game, just find the 5 digit NHL game number. In the case above it was game 21093

    If you look at the web address of NHL games summaries, they have the game number.

    Fun to mess around with if you have time.

    NOTE: I’m sure there were some scoring effects in the NSH game where he was -13 Corsi as that’s the game the OIlers led 6-0 at one point.

    The -14 egg he laid against LAK and the -18 he laid against LAK were both losses, so you’d expect a better score effects corsi, but it’s really bad.

  27. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Dipstick:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I believe that Whitney shoots left.

    Good catch. In my head somehow I had all the Defensive D (Smid, N. Schultz, and the grinders Sutton/Peckham) on the left and all the offence on the other side (Whitney, Petry, J. Schultz, Potter).

    Switching Whitney out still leaves that impression. I guess it led to a strong confirmation bias.

    Or, is it possible that he shoots left, but plays right…?

    At any rate, I’m still not sure why I had him over there.

  28. McSorely Head says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    @Tikitalk10

  29. Dipstick says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Having all the puck movers on one side would make it easier to pair them with defensive partners. Another Tambellini fail!

  30. justDOit says:

    nathan:
    Lowetide,

    Great post. Looking forward to tomorrow’s entry in the About Ryan series. Who’s on second?

    Ryan Cola

  31. vesci says:

    The ever reliable Treenasoil has Toronto offering Phaneuf for 3 roster players one of which is Hemmer.

  32. WeridAl says:

    LT I rather have the Oilers stand pat and bring along some of their younger D. The question is will the Oilers make the playoffs this year, IMO no even with another veteran D. The Oilers are strong with prospect D and are in need of a big C or RHS power forward. It seems some people, especially some media that they see the light at the end of the tunnel and they want to rush things.

    I’ll get flamed for this, but I rather them show case Yakupov and then trade him for pieces the Oilers need. The Oilers are just on the edge of making the playoffs and will not do that with a top 6 heavily base on small highly skilled forwards. Look what happened this year, most of the top teams loaded up with coke bottles and the Oilers don’t stand a chance with teams like that.

  33. Southern Oil says:

    McSorely Head:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    @Tikitalk10

    LOL!

    Keep your head up!

  34. Woodguy says:

    vesci:
    The ever reliable Treenasoil has Toronto offering Phaneuffor 3 roster players one of which is Hemmer.

    I’d rather have Gunnarson,

    Cheaper, RFA after next year.

    His fancy stats are slightly better than Frankeneuf’s too.

    WOWY 5v5 tied/close shot differential:

    Frank w/ Gunnarsson .474
    Frank wihout Gunn .482
    Gunn without Frank .503

    Gunnarson”s score in this metric is better than Frank’s with other Leaf players too (on the whole)

    Frank is 6.5MM UFA in 2 years.

    Maybe Frank at the right price, but not that price.

  35. vesci says:

    Woodguy: I’d rather have Gunnarson,

    Cheaper, RFA after next year.

    His fancy stats are slightly better than Frankeneuf’s too.

    I am an Oilers fan living in Calgary and saw Phaneuf a lot. He wasn’t overly impressive but if the other two roster players were non core ( think Jones and Peckhamish) Phaneuf would help. Ok with Gunner too but the Oil really need another top 4 D man.

    WOWY 5v5 tied/close shot differential:

    Frank w/ Gunnarsson .474
    Frank wihout Gunn .482
    Gunn without Frank .503

    Gunnarson”s score in this metric is better than Frank’s with other Leaf players too (on the whole)

    Frank is 6.5MM UFA in 2 years.

    Maybe Frank at the right price, but not that price.

  36. franksterra says:

    Woodguy,

    No to Frank, but if the leafs are willing to move Gunnarson, let’s CHAT!

  37. vesci says:

    Live in Calgary and saw Phaneuf a lot. Not as good as the hype but not as bad as the critics would like us to believe either. If the other two players were non core (think peckham or Jones) I would be good with giving up Hemsky. I would also be ok with Gunnerson, but the Oilers badly need a top 4 D man if they want to take the next step. I like Whitney, but I am not convinced about his durability.

  38. Ducey says:

    vesci: The ever reliable Treenasoil has Toronto offering Phaneuf for 3 roster players one of which is Hemmer.

    If she/he is going to make up something then at least have some truculance going back the other way. Hemsky doesn’t strike me as a Burke style player. Nor do I think Burke is looking to move another D man after dumping Schenn and losing out on Suter.

    Edit: On second thought, if Burke is looking to bring on Nash or Ryan, maybe he has to move salary – in which case the Oilers should grind him.

  39. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy: The -14 egg he laid against LAK and the -18 he laid against LAK were both losses, so you’d expect a better score effects corsi, but it’s really bad.

    Those GAMES were really bad. LAK were getting on its pre-playoff roll, moreover they absolutely had to win to even make the playoffs, and put their foot to the pedal for the entire 60 minutes both times. The Oilers meanwhile were a shitty team playing out the string, for whom losses actually improved lottery position. Both games were ass-kickings of the first order, right up and down the line-up. The scores were 4-1 and 2-0, and both were flattering to the Oil. They were two of the most one-sided games of the entire season. After the second of the consecutive beatdowns I came away thinking I wouldn’t want to be the team(s) facing the Kings in the playoffs.

    Whitney’s -18 game (in Edmonton), the Oilers as a team were -29. Whitney played 18:29 at evens out of 43:52 total, so about 42% of the time. Also, of his -18 Corsi, he was -10 Fenwick, with a blocked shots component of +1/-9.

    Whitney’s -14 game (in LA), the Oilers as a team were -32. Whitney played 19:53 of 50:00 EV time, so a shade under 40%. Of his -14 Corsi, he was -7 Fenwick, with a blocked shots component of +1/-8.

    In the two games combined he was -1, this on a team that was outscored 4-0 at evens over those games (and outshot 61-30).

    Yes, they were tough nights for Ryan Whitney. They were tough nights for pretty much every Oiler and Oiler fan.

  40. Woodguy says:

    vesci,

    Gunnarsson and Frank were the tough minute pairing D for TOR last year.

  41. jake70 says:

    On Phanuef, not hockey related but a funny little story from last summer I didn’t get a chance to post.. U2 finished their 360 tour here and the post concert chatter had people in town chuckling over Phaneuf almost not getting into the concert. Some said he was trying the “do you know who I am” bit.

    “Toronto Maple Leafs captain Dion Phaneuf was one of many fans who could be seen struggling to keep his patience with what were confusing and conflicting directions from a security staff many complained weren’t well briefed. Turned away at a gate after he had apparently been directed to it after being turned away at another, the NHLer appeared ready to give up in disgust and go back home to his cottage on Prince Edward Island.”

    So Brule gets the VIP treatment and Phaneuf, well, not so much.

  42. franksterra says:

    Would two years of Komisarek’s 4.5 hit be sustainable if Kulemin then came at a deep below market value discount (in terms of assets back to the Leafs)? Saves Burke a hair more coin for trades (and Nash) than dealing Frank

  43. rickithebear says:

    Hemmer, Jones, Peckham for Phanuef.

    Teddy has the Cherry /Kuewl cache.

    Hemmer in a soft, 1st pp return is money for the GM

    Jones he is a 18 G scorer (5th on leafs)
    One of 20 players with 15G; 1.5hits/gm; .5blks/gm
    Right there withLaich, Nystrom, Stepan, Greening, Riberio, M. Richards, Brouwer, Oshie, Talbot, Cooke.

    Ideal for Toronto

  44. rickithebear says:

    Vesci:

    Come on! Beat me too it.

  45. franksterra says:

    Smid-Petry
    Gunnarson-Whitney/J.Schutlz
    N.Schultz- Whitney/J.Schutlz
    Sutton

    More of a 2a-b-c than a 1-2-3 set of six there

  46. Woodguy says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Those GAMES were really bad. LAK were getting on its pre-playoff roll, moreover they absolutely had to win to even make the playoffs, and put their foot to the pedal for the entire 60 minutes both times. The Oilers meanwhile were a shitty team playing out the string, for whom losses actually improved lottery position. Both games were ass-kickings of the first order, right up and down the line-up. The scores were 4-1 and 2-0, and both were flattering to the Oil. They were two of the most one-sided games of the entire season. After the second of the consecutive beatdowns I came away thinking I wouldn’t want to be the team(s) facing the Kings in the playoffs.

    Whitney’s -18 game (in Edmonton), the Oilers as a team were -29. Whitney played 18:29 at evens out of 43:52 total, so about 42% of the time. Also, of his -18 Corsi, he was -10 Fenwick, with a blocked shots component of +1/-9.

    Whitney’s -14 game (in LA), the Oilers as a team were -32.Whitney played 19:53 of 50:00 EV time, so a shade under 40%. Of his -14 Corsi, he was -7 Fenwick, with a blocked shots component of +1/-8.

    In the two games combined he was -1, this on a team that was outscored 4-0 at evens over those games (and outshot 61-30).

    Yes, they were tough nights for Ryan Whitney. They were tough nights for pretty much every Oiler and Oiler fan.

    When I get time, I’ll look at the next set of 10 games.

    The “Whitney improved to a .500 shot% player” doesn’t ring true, so I’m going to have a lash at it.

  47. Moosemess says:

    If the Oil are dangling Hemsky, I think they should pursue a two-way, 2C/3C swing center with size and not another Top 4 D man.

    Rationale being, if Whitney is ready, you’ve then got 2 of the crucial pieces needed and you’re that much closer to a playoff spot this season. If Whitney’s not healthy enough to play in the Top 4, you plug in a value contract with a short term until Klefbom is ready to take on the minutes next year.

    There’s enough D prospects bubbling under, that center with size should be the focus on return for the most significant trade asset in the org IMHO. That said, the trade deadline tells us that Hemsky doesn’t have a ton of trade value at the moment, so we’re probably still looking at him having to stay healthy and productive for a few months at least before Tambi can pull the trigger on a deal like that.

    I’ll be shocked if the Oil offer a UFA D significant term for Whitney insurance. I think they’ll wait until the last moment, and if Klefbom doesn’t impress enough in camp to want to come over, they’ll then do a short-term contract with a fringe guy who’s happy to get a 1 year deal. Any of Potter, Peckham or Tuebert could impress enough in camp that they decide to stay the course with what they have. Potter in particular seems to be viewed by the org as the fallback option if Whitney can’t go.

  48. Professor Q says:

    rickithebear,

    And yet another heartwarming Edmonton homecoming story <3 awwww… if they are all that good why trade them?

  49. spoiler says:

    WG

    Do those Corsi#s for Whitney and Schultz include PK TOI?

  50. Truth says:

    No to Phanuef. I do recall the Oilers looking for “good people” to add to the lineup. All evidence points to Phanuef not passing this test. Plus he is a complete pylon in his own end.

  51. vesci says:

    rickithebear,

    Seemed like reasonable throw ins that wouldn’t hurt Edm too much and may have some appeal to the Leafs (lower salary, some toughness ans some scoring). One of those 3 for 1deals we all keep hearing about.

  52. speeds says:

    Moosemess:
    If the Oil are dangling Hemsky, I think they should pursue a two-way, 2C/3C swing center with size and not another Top 4 D man.

    Rationale being, if Whitney is ready, you’ve then got 2 of the crucial pieces needed and you’re that much closer to a playoff spot this season. If Whitney’s not healthy enough to play in the Top 4, you plug in a value contract with a short term until Klefbom is ready to take on the minutes next year.

    There’s enough D prospects bubbling under, that center with size should be the focus on return for the most significant trade asset in the org IMHO. That said, the trade deadline tells us that Hemsky doesn’t have a ton of trade value at the moment, so we’re probably still looking at him having to stay healthy and productive for a few months at least before Tambi can pull the trigger on a deal like that.

    I’ll be shocked if the Oil offer a UFA D significant term for Whitney insurance. I think they’ll wait until the last moment, and if Klefbom doesn’t impress enough in camp to want to come over, they’ll then do a short-term contract with a fringe guy who’s happy to get a 1 year deal. Any of Potter, Peckham or Tuebert could impress enough in camp that they decide to stay the course with what they have. Potter in particular seems to be viewed by the org as the fallback option if Whitney can’t go.

    It’s tough to look at this stuff with our lack on information, but keep in mind that all of Smid, Whitney, and Sutton are UFA next summer, so if EDM has some concern that they can’t (or don’t want to) get Smid and/or Whitney extended, another D wouldn’t be terrible.

  53. Woodguy says:

    spoiler:
    WG

    Do those Corsi#s for Whitney and Schultz include PK TOI?

    As per Vi’c page: Shots directed at net while a player was on the ice at even strength, excluding empty net situations
    franksterra,

  54. rickithebear says:

    Professor Q: rickithebear, And yet another heartwarming Edmonton homecoming story <3 awwww… if they are all that good why trade them?

    As vesci just supported. For not going to happen trades. that is the one you want.
    Hemsky is miscast in tough comp role here!
    Peckham is schenn with better: even defensive and pk numbers.
    Jones scores and hits! truculence!

    -none of them will be on the team at the start of next Season.
    -Gives MP a chance on RW with Smyth & Horcoff.
    -Belanger will not have to play with wild rover, wild rover.

  55. Kris11 says:

    Burke wants a proven starter to play in front of his kids. Apparently, given our goalies salaries, we have two solid, proven starters. Maybe we can trade one to Burke for Gunnarsson or Phaneuf. That will help us clear the 7MM we have tied up in goaltending. Really, we have one of the best, most proven tandems on the league.

    Oh wait, that won’t happen. I wonder why not?

    /beating-dead-horse

  56. Downright Fierce says:

    One of my favorite moments from last year: Whitney laughing

    Whitty is a funny guy & his play, when healthy, is inspiring. So many of us are once-bitten-twice-shy in regards to players with histories of injury, it’s no wonder so many of us decry The Org’s unwillingness to address depth. Every year we circle 6′s name in the depth chart in red because there’s every likelihood he’ll go down, especially with the workload with which he’s burdened. Same for Khabi & some might even include Hemsky or Hall. The Org appears to refuse to even consider the possibility.

    Makes me wonder if they’re counting on more from Potter than we all are. Most of us would slot him behind Sutton as a rotating 7th/AHL regular. Does The Org’s optics have him rebounding to pre-concussion levels? Should we trust them? Until I see another NHL-quality D added, I remain very skeptical that the Oilers have realized their issues with depth & how they are affected by injuries.

  57. nathan says:

    “/beating-dead-horse”

    Kris11,

    one dead horse and one live horse. fixed.

  58. Kris11 says:

    Hemsky is miscast?

    You mean like that old movie “The Conqueror” where they cast John Wayne as Genghis Khan?

    Hemsky is a solid 1st line winger by all measures. Let’s not go through all this again and just agree to read old posts about Hemsky.

  59. hunter1909 says:

    Kris11:
    Hemsky is miscast?

    You mean like that old movie “The Conqueror” where they cast John Wayne as Genghis Khan?

    Are you crazy!? Haven’t you seen John Wayne’s slitty Scottish style eyes, which our very own President of Hockey operations Kevin Lowe similarly sports?

  60. Kris11 says:

    In the movie John Wayne Khan falls in love with a “Tatar” (not the sauce that goes on fish) What would Yakpov think?

    It’s hillarious to watch. The whole thing is on youtube.

    You can get angry at the movie for its rampant racism and sexism and awful script and acting. You can even want the characters to just die. But then you’ll feel bad for wishing that they died, because many of them died of cancer in the following years. The movie was filmed in a very radioactive area and it’s possible the radiation killed them, eventually, including Wayne. (Controversial, IMO.)

  61. Cactus says:

    Clay:
    “Shultz” is the new “Gagne”.

    THANK YOU! This has been bothering me for a while, but I didn’t want to come across as a jerk about it. Thankfully, Clay has taken the bullet for all of us.

  62. nzoilerfan says:

    I would hope that the oilers are careful with Whitney and don’t lean on him too heavily.
    Giving Smid – Petry , and Schultz – Schultz pairings the bigger minutes. I can’t remember where but I do remember seeing that Whitney has been working hard over the summer, so couple that with a slow and easy transition back into playing that should help him out immensely. I don’t want to see him thrown right into the fire opening night playing 20 minutes of evens against the Sedins haha.

  63. Cactus says:

    nzoilerfan:
    I would hope that the oilers are careful with Whitney and don’t lean on him too heavily.
    Giving Smid – Petry , and Schultz – Schultz pairings the bigger minutes. I can’t remember where but I do remember seeing that Whitney has been working hard over the summer, so couple that with a slow and easy transition back into playing that should help him out immensely. I don’t want to see him thrown right into the fire opening night playing 20 minutes of evens against the Sedins haha.

    The best part of Whitney’s contract situation is that he has every incentive to work hard and stay as healthy as possible. If he has another injury plagued season, he’s going to be signing a 1 year, $2M contract in hockey purgatory next year. He needs to play 60 games plus to avoid that fate.

  64. Moosemess says:

    Shame that Burkie likely doesn’t see Hemsky as having the necessary amount of ‘truculence’ he looks for in a player. Looks like the Buds will have some centers on the trading block soon.

    Apparently, they’re looking to trial Van Riemsdyk at center.

    http://www.torontosun.com/2012/07/05/leafs-jvr-centre-of-attention

    Following the recent acquisition of McClement, the Leafs look to have a surplus of depth centers.

    Tim Connolly, Mikhail Grabovski, Tyler Bozak, David Steckel, Matthew Lombardi and possibly Joe Colborne should be included in that mix as well.

    Would any of these players be suitable to fill the Oil’s need for a sizable two way center?

  65. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Kris11:
    Hemsky is miscast?

    You mean like that old movie “The Conqueror” where they cast John Wayne as Genghis Khan?

    Hemsky is a solid 1st line winger by all measures. Let’s not go through all this again and just agree to read old posts about Hemsky.

    hunter1909: Are you crazy!? Haven’t you seen John Wayne’s slitty Scottish style eyes, which our very own President of Hockey operations Kevin Lowe similarly sports?

    For Hockey purposes you might want to think in terms of The Long Voyage Home (UA, 1940, dir. John Ford), where Marrion plays a Swede longshoreman, Ole Olsen, trying to stick to “yin-yar-beer” and go back to Sweden to farm.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kkFHoS7EdVk

  66. Moosemess says:

    Cactus: The best part of Whitney’s contract situation is that he has every incentive to work hard and stay as healthy as possible.If he has another injury plagued season, he’s going to be signing a 1 year, $2M contract in hockey purgatory next year.He needs to play 60 games plus to avoid that fate.

    I recall a clip on the Oil site where Whitney was being asked if he’d play through serious pain to help the team? He glared at the reporter and asked something along the lines of “are you asking me if I’d play when injured?” and basically shot down that possibility down as foolish and insulting that the reporter would even ask it in this day and age. All of this is paraphrasing from recollection, but it was clear that this is not an Emmitt Smith type player who’ll play with a broken shoulder to win a crucial game.

    I wonder if his attitude about that changes in a contract year?

  67. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: As per Vi’c page:Shots directed at net while a player was on the ice at even strength, excluding empty net situations
    franksterra,

    Thanks, WG. I should have read Bruce’s post before asking. Would have jogged my memory of those games better.

  68. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Moosemess,

    It could go the other way, no?

    as in… “of course I play injured, how dare you question my loyalty”

    or something.

  69. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Moosemess,

    was it this one:

    http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?catid=0&id=124849&cmpid=embed-share-video

    that’s the closest I can find (not an exhaustive search). he talks about the difference between “playing injured and playing hurt” and makes a pretty reasonable distinction between the former being impossible and the latter fine.

  70. TheOtherJohn says:

    A healthy Whitney makes our defense 15% better. He is. Great passer

    I do not believe Whitney’s problems have ever been sprains, fractures or nything of tht ilk. Nor do I see the Whitney came back early to help out the team, thereby setting back his psyio. Makes for a great narrative, not. True one, but a good one nonetheless. Or was he needed to hold off. Surging CBJ?

    Whitney has structural flaws with his feet. Maybe he will improve his skating, but he looked pretty bad turning last year. And in today’s NHL you have to go back to get dump ins ns. He struggled with that.

  71. Moosemess says:

    Nope. The one I remember was more a one-on-one interview without the B roll. He seems much more reasonable in that clip. Encouraging.

    I’m not an advocate of playing with injury, but I agree with him here, a professional athlete in a contact sport should expect to have to play with pain from time to time to merit the salary. 100% pain free usually last until about mid November tops. lol

  72. OilLeak says:

    Rishaug is tweeting that extensions for Eberle and Hall are being considered, somewhere in the Tavares range. Let’s hope that’s accurate, because I won’t stand another overpay.

  73. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Playing hurt = tough
    Playing injured = dumb

  74. Cactus says:

    OilLeak:
    Rishaug is tweeting that extensions for Eberle and Hall are being considered, somewhere in the Tavares range.Let’s hope that’s accurate, because I won’t stand another overpay.

    You shouldn’t have too much to worry about then. Since the disaster that was the Khabibulin contract, Tambellini, Lowe and co. have been quite conservative with contracts in both dollars and especially term length.

    The bigger concern for me is that they won’t lock them up long enough.

  75. nathan says:

    Cactus,

    long term for the core, short term outside the core and for goaltenders. only way to fly.

  76. OilLeak says:

    Foligno’s deal (3 X 3) has me thinking that gagner will get somewhere around 3.5 million for a 2 year deal.

  77. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy: The “Whitney improved to a .500 shot% player” doesn’t ring true, so I’m going to have a lash at it.

    I saw that reference too, can’t remember where, but I’m pretty sure it referred to shots on goal rates, not shots at goal rates. For whatever reason Whitney’s blocked shots ratio is highly skewed, and it’s not cuz he blocked a tonne of shots himself. Thus his shots % was quite a bit better than his Corsi %. Both were better with score “close”, at least down the stretch.

  78. OilLeak says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Playing hurt = tough
    Playing injured = dumb

    What do you consider being hurt? and what do you consider an injury? Is playing with a sprained ankle, playing hurt or injured? You can certainly play with a sprained ankle, but is it advisable? Playing hurt usually means risking further injury.

  79. billymadison says:

    OilLeak:
    Rishaug is tweeting that extensions for Eberle and Hall are being considered, somewhere in the Tavares range.Let’s hope that’s accurate, because I won’t stand another overpay.

    another overpay?

    habby, dubnyk, and barker (shudder) are the only overpays tambo has given out . I don’t even mind dubnyks contract because if he proves himself in this contract, whether he is/was getting 3.5 or 2.0, he would be getting 4.75-5.5 next contract either way. If he fails then it doesnt matter because guess what? Katz is paying him, not you or I, and the cap isn’t involved in the slightest.

    Tambo has given some great underpaying/good value contracts the past three years

    Gagner 2.275
    Jones 1.5
    eager 1.1
    belanger (at the time it looked unreal and even now its not bad) 1.75
    Smyth 2.25
    And the golden star for Petry at 1.75

  80. OilLeak says:

    Lindback gets 3.9 million over 2 years, he’ll still be an RFA, but his situation is similar to Dubnyk’s. A back-up with comparable numbers that will now assume the starter role. Dubnyk right now has the better numbers, but even if he got 3 million per season, it would have been an overpay.

  81. Woodguy says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I saw that reference too, can’t remember where, but I’m pretty sure it referred to shots on goal rates, not shots at goal rates. For whatever reason Whitney’s blocked shots ratio is highly skewed, and it’s not cuz he blocked a tonne of shots himself. Thus his shots % was quite a bit better than his Corsi %. Both were better with score “close”, at least down the stretch.

    Do you where I can get corsi or fenwick per game in different game states?

  82. OilLeak says:

    billymadison: another overpay?

    habby, dubnyk, and barker (shudder) are the only overpays tambo has given out . I don’t even mind dubnyks contract because if he proves himself in this contract, whether he is/was getting 3.5 or 2.0, he would be getting 4.75-5.5 next contract either way. If he fails then it doesnt matter because guess what? Katz is paying him, not you or I, and the cap isn’t involved in the slightest.

    Tambo has given some great underpaying/good value contracts the past three years

    Gagner 2.275
    Jones 1.5
    eager 1.1
    belanger (at the time it looked unreal and even now its not bad) 1.75
    Smyth 2.25
    And the golden star for Petry at 1.75

    You’re forgetting the overpay for Sutton at the time. 1.75 million may seem fine now, but at the time the contract was signed it was an overpay. How do you even consider Eager a value contract? He’s a 4th liner/enforcer with limited offense and he was signed for 3 years.

  83. Woodguy says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I saw that reference too, can’t remember where, but I’m pretty sure it referred to shots on goal rates, not shots at goal rates. For whatever reason Whitney’s blocked shots ratio is highly skewed, and it’s not cuz he blocked a tonne of shots himself. Thus his shots % was quite a bit better than his Corsi %. Both were better with score “close”, at least down the stretch.

    I used to be a Fenwick guy, but I read on BTN that Corsi actually correlated better to win rates in terms of team metrics.

    Then I read this at NHL numbers, which shows 80-85% correlation with Corsi and Scoring Chances, so I’ve settled back into using corsi.

    Of course “Corsi” makes many people groan, so I tend to use the term “shot differential”.

    I’ve actually had people tell me they don’t believe in corsi, but understand that shot differential has value. :)

    Communication is all about language.

  84. rickithebear says:

    The game is about goal given up and goals let in. Goals and GA. I do look at the Shooting % and Sv% realtive to these stats.

    Hemsky last year faced upper 2nd Comp. in a 50-55% zone start situation.

    But in your world #1 is the same As the #2. Correct?

    In that situation the average payer gets 1.70EVP/60.
    Defensively gets better than the league avergae for GA.

    Hemsky was below average in ev pt production.
    His Gf adjusted for Shooting % is still below average
    His Ga adjusted for Sv% is below average. Heck he had a better than league average Save % and it was still below.

    in a second comp role he did not achieve the league average in P, GF, GA.
    From a goals in goals out measure he could not handle upper seconds.

    But his Corsi was great and since every player yeilds the same quality of shot that makes him great.

    Cause corsi says:
    -a shot entering from the right point with no screen
    -is the same as
    -a shot from a fwd who has driven towards the net from the right side. beat the dman driven along the crease forcing the golaie to move to the side and roofing it.

    how could hemsky be so bad in the goal measurables yet be awsome in the small number measurables.
    -Could the young man start more in offensive zone. Check
    - Could he be a pocession zone entry playe that yeilds more shots of lower %. check
    - does he turn over the puck at the blue line and down low causing a higher rate of odd man rush that yeild higher quality shots and a higher goals/shot rate..

    As vizzini once said, “inconcievable”

    But i could be mistaken.
    It could have been Wallace Shawn in the owners box screaming “shoot” as hemsky entered on the right side. were apon hemsky looped around the net. He turns to katz and says, “Inconcievable.” Katz looks at him, “have you watched him play? I do not think it means what you think it means!”

  85. Kris11 says:

    I’d give Eberle a lesser deal than Hall. Hall is a good comp for Tavares. Eberle isn’t

    I love Eberle, but he should make less than Hall. Eberle has less success with underlying statistics -and by eye, IMO- driving the play at ES. And he is older to boot, suggesting a little less room for improvement. Eberle’s boxcars last year where fairly heavily driven by an unsustainable Sh percentage, which at least makes it less likely that he’l score that way in the future.

    I still love Eberle and would give him a solid deal, but he hasn’t earned Hall’s deal. I might give Eberle an option of a one year deal to prove he deserves Hall money on his next contract or a long term deal at less.

  86. hunter1909 says:

    Kris11,

    I happen to like that movie, despite your weak attempts at criticism..

  87. godot10 says:

    Dubnyk and Lindbeck are not remotely comparable.

    Dubnyk could opt for arbitration and be a UNRESTRICTED FREE agent next summer. (That was his leverage. The Oilers went for two years to make sure they would not have to pay him for one freaky good year next season. He will have to do it for two.)

    Lindbeck might not even have arbitration rights since he is coming off of his first contract, and he will still be restricted after this new contract.

  88. Cactus says:

    OilLeak:
    Lindback gets 3.9 million over 2 years, he’ll still be an RFA, but his situation is similar to Dubnyk’s.A back-up with comparable numbers that will now assume the starter role.Dubnyk right now has the better numbers, but even if he got 3 million per season, it would have been an overpay.

    I saw Jonathan Willis say the same on Twitter. You’re both mistaken if you think Lindback in a comp for Dubnyk.

    Here are their numbers from 2011-12:
    Dubnyk, EDM – 42 GS, 2.67 GAA, .914 SV%, .927 EV%
    Lindbeckm NSH – 10GS (16GP total), 2.42 GAA, .912 SV%, .919 EV%

    So just from that, we see that Dubnyk has slightly-moderately better save numbers. Moreover, Dubnyk was the starter for the last half of the season – Lindback was the clear backup behind Rinne, getting the start in only 12% of games. Further context makes the disparity even more apparent:

    -Dubnyk has started over 100 games in the NHL, Lindback has only played (started AND relief) in 38 games
    -Lindback is 24 and will have one RFA year left after his contract is up. Dubnyk’s contract buys a year of UFA status
    -In Dubnyk’s 24 and 25 year old seasons, he made $1.5M combined. Lindback is making $3.9M for the same seasons. If anything, we should be listening to the TB fans screaming about an overpay.

    I’m sure some of you are sick of reading me beat this dead horse, but I honestly believe that this isn’t one of those grey areas – there are some very clear comps to Dubnyk in both age and statistics (Lehtonen, Pavelec, Halak, Schneider and Crawford) and that this new deal is 100% consistent with the market rate.

  89. hunter1909 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Never heard of that movie, but consider myself a John Ford fan. Sure smells a lot like that weird Irish movie with Sean Connery, directed by Ford.

  90. OilClog says:

    Hemsky is a overpay for Phanuef in itself. If the leafs are already dangling him, stay very far away.

    If Hemsky is to be traded.. Target larger top six forward regardless of position. And if that trade is happening.. Gagner would get the better return.

  91. Kris11 says:

    I can’t understand a lot of your writing Rikki. And you don’t cite where you get your numbers at all. You seem to have some personal database.

    As such, I can’t respond meaningfully to any of it because I can’t verify your claims or understand your arguments, the way they’re presented. You say Hemsky is above average in some ways and below in others, but you don’t say how many games played a player has to play to be on the list.

    When guys like Tyler and Vic or Gabe and Scott or LT and JW or whoevermake an argument they put a lot of effort into stating where they get their numbers from, what information they included and what they left out, They sometimes even include charts and graphs for illustrative purposes. They work hard to present the info in a way that we can all evaluate and discuss. That’s why this is fun and interesting.

    You don’t do that. I think you have it in you to do that. And if you did. we’d all really interact with you and give you cool feedback. i think we’d even demand you start a blog so we could comment on your work specifically.

    But you don’t. You just throw a bunch of claims down with no indication of where the info comes from and no way for us to draw any conclusions about what you’re saying.

    I’m not telling you to stop. I’m just hoping you’ll start playing the game of debating this stuff with us instead of debating it with yourself and reporting your findings to us without ahowing your work.

  92. Kris11 says:

    Never change Hunter.

  93. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy: I’ve actually had people tell me they don’t believe in corsi, but understand that shot differential has value.

    Ha ha, I’ve had people tell me that plus/minus is a crap stat, but “outscorers” are golden.

    With all of this stuff, every last bit of it, context is critical. And we can never have enough of it (context, that is).

  94. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    hunter1909:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Never heard of that movie, but consider myself a John Ford fan. Sure smells a lot like that weird Irish movie with Sean Connery, directed by Ford.

    I’m pretty sure Ford and Connery never worked together. You might be thinking of:

    The Informer (RKO, 1935, starring Victor McLaglen)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPmx_OxeQrY

    Or, Plough and the Stars, (RKO 1936, starring Barbara Stanwyck)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1YdZK4AlEc

    Or, The Quiet Man (RKO, 1952, starring John Wayne and Maureen O’Hara)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ai28MdgeY9k

    Or, Young Cassidy (MGM, 1965, starring Rod Taylor and Julie Christie)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AoNdwvLHFvI

    those are all the “Irish” films of his that I know of, but begin Irish he probably made more, and I’m not terribly familiar with his silent era.

    but agreed. Ford is a master.

    ps. for those of you who think getting comments out of hockey players and mgt. should check this out… talk about irascible:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=25b5TJFLHwE

  95. "Steve Smith" says:

    Kris11:
    Never change Hunter.

    …although feel free to sober up from time to time.

  96. billymadison says:

    OilLeak: You’re forgetting the overpay for Sutton at the time.1.75 million may seem fine now, but at the time the contract was signed it was an overpay.How do you even consider Eager a value contract?He’s a 4th liner/enforcer with limited offense and he was signed for 3 years.

    A) Its not an overpayment if its one year and has no significance on the cap because you are not a cap team. B) Suttons contract is the same now as it was when it was signed so why were you considering it an overpayment then and not an overpayment now? Corey Sarich got 2.0 x 2 years! Andy Sutton is at least equivalent to Sarich. Do not/did not see an overpayment at any point C) Brandon Prust got 2.5 x3 and is marginally better then Ben Eager

  97. Ducey says:

    Kris11:
    I’d give Eberle a lesser deal than Hall. Hall is a good comp for Tavares. Eberle isn’t
    I love Eberle, but he should make less than Hall. Eberle has less success with underlying statistics -and by eye, IMO- driving the play at ES. And he is older to boot, suggesting a little less room for improvement. Eberle’s boxcars last year where fairly heavily driven by an unsustainable Sh percentage, which at least makes it less likely that he’l score that way in the future.
    I still love Eberle and would give him a solid deal, but he hasn’t earned Hall’s deal. I might give Eberle an option of a one year deal to prove he deserves Hall money on his next contract or a long term deal at less.

    How does the guy who scored .87 PPG, went -3, and played 61 games get paid more than the guy who went .97 PPG, was +4, played 76 and was a finalist for the Lady Bing?

    If anything, the Oilers should be careful with Hall as he has lots of injuries and will likely start slow due to his major shoulder surgery. If I was the Oilers, I’d lock up Eberle and wait on Hall until later into the season.

  98. rickithebear says:

    kRIS11:

    take all the ev play data from the lockout on. desjardins really only has 5 years.
    -break them into comp groups upper, mid, lower 1st to 4th lines
    - take the zone start and break them in to groups.
    i broke them in to groups of 50%
    less than 40; 40-45;45-50;50-55;55-60;60; greater than 60%
    but with compression around 50%
    less than 40; 40-45; 45-48; 48-50; 50-52; 52-55; 55-60; greater than 60%
    the distribution seems to be around 7 player per zone start group except the two outer ones. per year.

    this gets you to 96 referenced situations a player can be put in by a coach.
    a complete database would analyze a player on agame by game bassis. with what
    but 19 X 30 X 82 X 60 = 2.8 mIllion minutes of video.
    If we were like Football focus, They has a network of 3fans , coaches etc. for 676, 000 minutes.

    So i will just take an anual average. for the 5 years of data. then compare your player to the mean in a given situation.

  99. Kris11 says:

    Ducey: How does the guy who scored .87 PPG, went -3, and played 61 games get paid more than the guy who went .97 PPG, was +4, played 76 and was a finalist for the Lady Bing?

    If anything, the Oilers should be careful with Hall as he has lots of injuries and will likely start slow due to his major shoulder surgery. If I was the Oilers, I’d lock up Eberle and wait on Hall until later into the season.

    Eberle has an unsustainable SH percentage. Hall’s underlying numbers make him look like a dominant, dominant ES player than Eberle, and he’s younger. And to be frank the pedigree of 1st overall gets you a bit of a raise, too.

  100. Kris11 says:

    +/- without context is a joke of a stat and boxcars without context are really unreliable,

  101. Kris11 says:

    rickithebear:
    kRIS11:

    take all the ev play data from the lockout on. desjardins really only has 5 years.
    -break them into comp groups upper, mid, lower1st to 4th lines
    - take the zone start and break them in to groups.
    i broke them in to groups of 50%
    less than 40; 40-45;45-50;50-55;55-60;60; greater than 60%
    but with compression around 50%
    less than 40; 40-45; 45-48; 48-50; 50-52; 52-55; 55-60; greater than 60%
    the distribution seems to be around 7 playerper zone start group except the two outer ones. per year.

    How you do the “comp groups” and who counts as, say, a 1st line and a 4th line will matter more than a lot. So you need to show us who you counted as a 3rd line, etc,

    More generally, if you want to convince us that such and such is true, it’s your job to show me all of your data and calculations. No one will listen to you if you don’t show them your argument, your evidence, and where all your data comes from.

    If anyone else disagrees with me about this, let me know.

  102. hunter1909 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I somehow got The Quiet man confused with Darby O’Gill and the Little People(the Little People provided by the “Steve Smith Casting Agency”, which is known for using it’s own close family members as extras.

  103. Lowetide says:

    What’s the one where JW and Maureen O’Hara are always walking and talking in sweaters? When I was a kid McLintock was one of my Dad’s favorite movies to watch on TV. That and Shane.

  104. Ducey says:

    Kris11:
    +/- without context is a joke of a stat and boxcars without context are really unreliable,

    Great. Try taking Corsi to arbitration and see how that works. Players get paid based on certain criteria whether you like those criteria or not.

  105. vishcosity says:

    /topic/

    Stoll + Greene = Lubo
    Lubo => Whitney

    Looks like mgmt did set themselves up pretty nicely for that #1 D, looks to me like there maybe was a pretty good plan somewhere in there. Too bad about the ankle.

    /end topic/

  106. vishcosity says:

    I should probably add this: I don’t know anything about old movies, and what’s even more odd is that the wife and I are a week into making one for the Spike and Mike movie festival. Its really just an ad for one of the sponsors, but still. Its very curious that I’m doing what I’m doing with no knowledge of any of the movies mentioned thus far. funny how life is.

    Statistics work well with molecules, I think that is why I was drawn towards it. My pops has a PhD in psychology, and clearly statistics there are weak at best. Chemistry is nice because there is a right answer. Or, statistics can assess the vibrations of diatomic chlorine super well, I’m just not sure they’re too effective when applied to people.

    I sure like the idea of getting the #1 D through the Greene/Staois deal, sure hope the ankle thing works out better than it has lately.

  107. Bruce McCurdy says:

    vishcosity: statistics can assess the vibrations of diatomic chlorine super well, I’m just not sure they’re too effective when applied to people.

    ^^^ Rec’d for truth ^^^

    I recently told a friend that predicting Transits of Venus for millennia into the past and future is far more reliable than any equation that has a human element, and when you’re talking hockey that’s times-twelve or even times-sixteen when the stripes decide to get involved. Not to mention the random bounces of that infernal puck. Statistics are doomed to capture those relationships very imperfectly at best.

  108. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide:
    What’s the one where JW and Maureen O’Hara are always walking and talking in sweaters? When I was a kid McLintock was one of my Dad’s favorite movies to watch on TV. That and Shane.

    Both McLintock and Shane are a lot of fun.

    I think you mean The Quiet Man… but you might mean the Wings of Eagles (terrible movie, Ford’s worst… but he did it as a tribute to one of his old war buddies, so I can’t really fault him for it).

    Those are the only two Wayne/O’Hara films in a modern setting, the rest are westerns and you wouldn’t see any sweaters).

    Here’s something to jog your memory:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IftG_SBjB6I

    That’s basically the plot of the film right there…

    ps. the Summer is the best time to watch westerns

  109. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    hunter1909: Darby O’Gill and the Little People

    haha… I jumble movies together all the time too…

    BTW… I will be eternally grateful that you introduced me to this extremely strange movie:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIT_ov0lOXo

    ps. this is a pretty interesting review of other unheard of Disney films:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxYSjwFOqh8&feature=related

  110. Lowetide says:

    Rom: That’s the one! Quiet Man!

  111. PerryK says:

    Moosemess:

    Apparently, they’re looking to trial Van Riemsdyk at center.

    http://www.torontosun.com/2012/07/05/leafs-jvr-centre-of-attention

    Following the recent acquisition of McClement, the Leafs look to have a surplus of depth centers.

    Tim Connolly, Mikhail Grabovski, Tyler Bozak, David Steckel, Matthew Lombardi and possibly Joe Colborne should be included in that mix as well.

    Would any of these players be suitable to fill the Oil’s need for a sizable two way center?

    Well….. 2 of them in my opinion. Clearly Connolly is a wonderful hockey player…..but also as clearly a “band-aid”. If you take a chance on him he may pay handsome dividends; or NOT!

    Grabovski is probably unavailable, but if he were then our esteemed GM should be locked up in a negotiating chamber (a barn?) with Burke and not be allowed to leave without a deal!

    Back to reality though, there are no real possible deals here!

  112. jfry says:

    funny to see kris11 (a guy with big opinion and little data) call out a guy like rickibear who has little opinion but lots of data.

    get serious.

    your average post looks like this:
    I’d give Eberle a lesser deal than Hall. Hall is a good comp for Tavares. Eberle isn’t
    I love Eberle, but he should make less than Hall. Eberle has less success with underlying statistics -and by eye, IMO- driving the play at ES. And he is older to boot, suggesting a little less room for improvement. Eberle’s boxcars last year where fairly heavily driven by an unsustainable Sh percentage, which at least makes it less likely that he’l score that way in the future.
    I still love Eberle and would give him a solid deal, but he hasn’t earned Hall’s deal. I might give Eberle an option of a one year deal to prove he deserves Hall money on his next contract or a long term deal at less.

    that’s all BS with no backing. ricki puts more time into posts on here than anyone but wg. you’d do well to follow his style rather than criticize. you have a great perspective, but you very rarely do the heavy lifting with stats that you want from others.

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