OILERS SIGN DUBNYK, PETRY (GAGNER TO ARBITRATION)

The Edmonton Oilers signed Devan Dubnyk (3.5M cap hit per year) and Jeff Petry (1.75M cap hit per year) for two years. LOTS to talk about in these contracts.

The Oilogosphere has their experts and I await their reactions, but it seems to me these are as far apart as two contracts can be in terms of value and years purchased.

  • The Dubnyk deal is an overpay of no small proportion. I would have thought $1.8M times two years would have been sufficient. I’m probably missing something, but this contract doesn’t buy much in the way of free agent years and doesn’t give Edmonton enough time to ensure he’s a true #1. Baffling.
  • The Petry deal is very good, I’d guess $500k better than most would have thought it would be entering the process. Petry will still be RFA at the end of the deal, giving Edmonton two more years to watch him perform and (hopefully) stay healthy.

Baffling.

As an aside, Sam Gagner will be going to salary arbitration. I think this may bode well for the team, would hope for a multi-year deal.

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173 Responses to "OILERS SIGN DUBNYK, PETRY (GAGNER TO ARBITRATION)"

  1. Cactus says:

    IMHO, that’s about a $500,000 overpay on Dubnyk (based on where goalie contracts are going) and about a $1.75M underpay on Petry, even given his lack of experience.

    A net gain for our fair city!

  2. DBO says:

    So Dubnyk is a UFA after this deal. Is Petry? Made the commment in last thread, but does this mean we have a 2 yr window for one cup run, then the deck can be cleared (Smyth, Eager, Whitney, Belanger, Bulin, Dubnyk all done by then)

  3. Cactus says:

    DBO:
    So Dubnyk is a UFA after this deal. Is Petry? Made the commment in last thread, but does this mean we have a 2 yr window for one cup run, then the deck can be cleared (Smyth, Eager, Whitney, Belanger, Bulin, Dubnyk all done by then)

    Petry should have one more RFA year. By that point we’ll know where he’s at and can sign him to a fair contract.

    As for Dubnyk, no point ever signing goalies long term. They’re a slot machine every year.

  4. Halfwise says:

    This is the kind of announcement that brings the real world into the Lowetide comments section. These guys have a certain level of talent, and will agree to a certain level of salary. Do the two levels match? If they don’t, what do you do as GM?

    I like to watch.

  5. OilClog says:

    I like both, neither handcuff the team, and fall in line well with the raises coming up. It’ll be up to them if they stick around after the alpha’s get paid.

  6. DBO says:

    Cactus,

    If Petry is an RFA in 2 year, then this is amazing value for the Oilers. Yeah he’ll get his $4-5 mill a year then, but you get 2 years to see whether him or Shultz is your big dude on the back end.

    So big deals coming to possible keepers for Cup run.
    next year: Hall, Eberle, MPS (smaller but will need deal), Whitney
    two years: Nuge, Shultz, Petry, Dubnyk, Shultz the older, Hartikainen, Lander
    three years: Yakupov, Kelfbom (if he plays this year), maybe Gagner.

  7. stevezie says:

    Dubnyk’s agent should be commended. I’d trade Devon for Rask in a heartbeat, but they’re getting paid the same. I don’t mind the deal though, it ain’t my money and I think we have the space.

  8. jake70 says:

    Dubnyk at 3.5M cap hit x 2 year, from 0.8M……..boy that seems like a big overpay to me but I don’t have a sweet clue on goalie values and contracts.

  9. Gerta Rauss says:

    DBO,

    Agree to your 2 year thinking…I believe it started with the Hemsky deal-they are going to sign small deals and re-assess things in the 2 year window…keep the players worth keeping and discard the rest while building around the core.

    Not sure if there is a cup run in there..:)…hope so…I’d settle for meaningful games past Christmas..:)

  10. Cactus says:

    jake70:
    Dubnyk at 3.5M cap hit x 2 year, from 0.8M……..boy that seems like a big overpay to me but I don’t have a sweet clue on goalie values and contracts.

    The problem is, neither do GMs. It creates a wacky market in which someone like Carey Price gets $6.5M for 6 years.

  11. rich says:

    Seems the Oilers have taken a very different track on young d-men from when Vish signed Gilbert. Am on board w/the comments on Petry – if he’s still RFA at the end, a good deal as it gives both sides the chance to really assess value.

    While I like DD, the dollars seem too high (although the silver lining is at least it’s not as much as Khabibulin). It does however signal that they expect more from him and he will be given every opportunity this year to play thru tough times instead of being tossed aside at the first sign of a slump by the coach.

  12. DBO says:

    Gagner files for arbitration. Well no worry on an offer sheet now. We can still sign him beforehand.

  13. DBO says:

    And not that we are going to spend it, but we have around $14 mill in cap space with only 1 more contract for our 23 man roster needed. When Yakupov signs (and teubert is sent down) we’ll have $11 mill. Well, at least we have room to make moves, or when the cap reduces we’ll still be in good shape.

  14. tdslvr says:

    Love the Petry deal—he’ll almost certainly be in the top 4 next year so 1.75 is great value even if the Oilers aren’t buying any UFA years. He’ll be RFA when the deal is over, so the OIlers will know what they have before committing big money over a longer term. Great deal.

    Not so sure about Dubnyk-although I’m leaning towards liking the deal. While one could argue that Rask or Schneider are reasonable comparables, his performance isn’t quite up to those two. Mind you, they didn’t play for Edmonton. If Dubnyk turns into a reliable number one, it’s a fair deal. If he regresses not so much.

  15. Ducey says:

    Is DD’s contract one RFA year and one UFA year or is it his last two RFA years?

    LT, $900,000 per year seems like it would be way too low.

  16. stevezie says:

    Cactus,

    I’d take the Price contract over the Quick one any day.

    Dubnyk is bankrupting us so I can’t get that mad, but a million more than Crawford is getting in Chicago is puzzling.

    Petry deal is a beaut though.

  17. Professor Q says:

    So what could the arbitrator award Gagner? Hopefully it doesn’t set the Oilers back too much.

  18. DBO says:

    Professor Q,

    Perron at $15.25 mill over 4 years is a comparable, although Perron has had a better PPG season (last year) then Gagner ever has. So I would guess not above that.

  19. Cactus says:

    stevezie,

    The Quick contract is such nonsense I won’t even cite it as a crazy precedent.

    I think that’s the biggest thing. Some people are evaluating goalie contracts based on some calculation of absolute value. The market however, is nutty. I think the Dubnyk number is an overpay, but not by a ton. I bet his agent made the following compelling arguments:

    1) Dubnyk had to play behind the Oilers defence. His numbers might be approaching Schneider’s if he played in Vancouver.

    2) If he’s going to be the starter, they need to play him money comparable to starters, and not backups or “by committee” players.

    These are strong points in my mind.

  20. Traktor says:

    AHL/NHL playoff games

    Schneider 42
    Rask 39
    Dubnyk 0

  21. Nessler37 says:

    Oilers Goalltenders in 2012

    Dubnyk: 18W-12L-3OT
    Khabby: 1W-10L-4OT

    Decent signing, just don’t let Khabby anywhere near the net now, and th Oil will take a step forward.

  22. Professor Q says:

    Nessler37,

    Come now, Khabi isn’t THAT bad is he?

  23. Cactus says:

    Traktor:
    AHL/NHL playoff games

    Schneider 42
    Rask 39
    Dubnyk 0

    That’s a huge indictment of Dubnyk who, as we all know, plays goalie, LW, RW, C and both defensive positions.

    Those AHL teams were awful. In his second year, Dubnyk faced 31 shots ON AVERAGE.

    You can do better than that.

  24. Bob Arctor says:

    This is kind of disappointing… Maybe these St Albert residents should be advising the city of Edmonton on hockey rinks and property values ;-)

  25. Lowetide says:

    I expect now that it has made the news ‘Nando’s rink will be up by nightfall WITH lights sponsored by the city of St. Albert. That thing about property value kills me, do people know where that IS? Lordy. You could put a new Area 51 in there and make your money back.

  26. "Steve Smith" says:

    Bob Arctor,

    Sturgeon County, not St. Albert – but hilarious post all the same.

  27. nathan says:

    “2) If he’s going to be the starter, they need to play him money comparable to starters, and not backups or “by committee” players.

    Cactus,

    Can you imagine the howls of laughter when you tell the arbitrator Dubnyk will be lucky to get half the starts?

  28. Beaker says:

    Ducey:
    Is DD’s contract one RFA year and one UFA year or is it his last two RFA years?

    LT, $900,000 per year seems like it would be way too low.

    I believe he meant 1.8 per year for 2 years…

  29. Cactus says:

    nathan,

    Because of the great Bulin Wall that he has to supplant?

    In seriousness, Dubnyk’s birthday is in May. He’ll be 27 next July 1. Would that grant him UFA status? If they’ve bought a year of UFA status, I’m completely okay with $3.5M.

  30. nathan says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    The county was just jealous of all the free publicity St. Albert got when they offered to sell Messier naming rights.

  31. Ducey says:

    Beaker: I believe he meant 1.8 per year for 2 years…

    He changed it! LT!! :)

  32. Lowetide says:

    Yeah, $1.8M times 2. I’ve changed it. Sorry, was just back from Red Deer and in a quick hurry.

  33. Beaker says:

    Yay, clarity! My life is complete now.

  34. "Steve Smith" says:

    So can anybody think of a reason that Peckham didn’t immediately sign his qualifying offer?

  35. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    DD: overpay. good term
    JP: underpay (yea!!). term is too short… if he collapses I’ll be dancing we didn’t sign for 4-6… but right now… too short
    gag: can someone review the relevant details on arbitration for me. thanks
    Pisani: sounds like the block irritant again. most bi-laws are designed to give these types of bitter, childless losers something to do after 5pm.

  36. Cactus says:

    Lowetide,

    Here are Dubnyk’s salary comparables, according to Capgeek:

    http://capgeek.com/comparables.php?season=2012&player=49

    If you’re asking him to be your starting goaltender for the next two years and possibly buying one UFA year, I don’t see where you’re getting $1.8M from. Maybe you could get him down to Varlamov numbers ($3M) but you’d probably need an extra year or two. At worst, you’re talking about a $500K overpay (and I think DD is better anyways).

    Guys, starting goalies get $3M plus AT A MINIMUM (with a $70M cap). Time to adjust our expectations.

  37. anonymous says:

    I guess we can attribute the improvement in the standings to Dubnyk then.
    Seriously though, I wouldn’t have guessed anything over 2.

  38. goldenchild says:

    I just finished my MBA, if MacT was in the room for this Dubnyk deal then he must skipped the 2 party negotiations classes. Where was Dubynks leverage for a deal like this? Not my money but I dont get it especially since most of the talk was about him having to prove that he could be a #1. This isnt prove it to us AAV, its you are the guy, which is a new narrative from the front office.

    Love the Petry number, I would of gone higher if I could of boughtt a couple more years.
    Hard to believe the same group negotiated these 2 contracts.

  39. speeds says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    So can anybody think of a reason that Peckham didn’t immediately sign his qualifying offer?

    Since he didn’t file for arb, that must not be it. I’d have to re-read the applicable CBA section to see if the following is even possible, could EDM have given him a two way QO? If so, maybe that would explain it – he’d be willing to take less money to get a one way for the upcoming season?

  40. Beaker says:

    I just wish this meant that since they are giving Dubnyk starting money that they were committed to send NK to the glue factory.

    7+ Mill for Dubnyk and NK actually seems worse to me than 10 Mill or whatever for Luongo and Schnieder.

  41. nathan says:

    Cactus,

    I think you got it. They did buy a year of UFA.

    “A player may only declare themselves to be an unrestricted free agent if they are over the age of 27 or have played in the league for a minimum of 7 years”.

    Was wondering if he was when I saw LT’s careful wording.

    “this contract doesn’t buy much in the way of free agent years”

    Looking at recent signings and assuming the arbitrator has seen the Oilers defense I’d have guessed mid 2 mil for the RFA year, so maybe the whole deal is a mil high (or maybe half a mil high like Cactus says). Will look great obviously if he carries his 2nd half through a full year.

  42. Bob Arctor says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    You’re right…everything north of 104 ave kind of amalgamates together in my mind. Reading of Nando’s problems reminded me of this.

  43. nathan says:

    Bob Arctor,

    NIHBYs. Not in his backyard.

  44. bookje says:

    I expect that Gagner will be signed before arbitration.

  45. "Steve Smith" says:

    Bob Arctor:
    “Steve Smith”,

    You’re right…everything north of 104 ave kind of amalgamates together in my mind. Reading of Nando’s problems reminded me of this.

    I was in New Brunswick when that broke, and people were talking about it there; I decided against letting it slip that that’s where I grew up.

  46. Lowetide says:

    SEE! All the cool people grew up in St. Alber, well VERY CLOSE to St. Albert!

  47. El Guapo says:

    speeds: Since he didn’t file for arb, that must not be it.I’d have to re-read the applicable CBA section to see if the following is even possible, could EDM have given him a two way QO?If so, maybe that would explain it – he’d be willing to take less money to get a one way for the upcoming season?

    Yes, the team can offer a 2 way QO so long as his previous contract was a two way AND so long as he had played in fewer than 180 NHL games in the 3 previous seasons (he has played fewer than that).

    Also, he can entertain offer sheets so long as neither he or the team has filed for arbitration. I believe the team has 24 hours to file for arbitration now. So maybe he believes he can get an offer sheet?

  48. tdslvr says:

    Cactus:
    Lowetide,

    Here are Dubnyk’s salary comparables, according to Capgeek:

    http://capgeek.com/comparables.php?season=2012&player=49

    If you’re asking him to be your starting goaltender for the next two years and possibly buying one UFA year, I don’t see where you’re getting $1.8M from.Maybe you could get him down to Varlamov numbers ($3M) but you’d probably need an extra year or two.At worst, you’re talking about a $500K overpay (and I think DD is better anyways).

    Guys, starting goalies get $3M plus AT A MINIMUM (with a $70M cap).Time to adjust our expectations.

    Totally agree. I don’t think you could sign a starting goaltender for less. The Oilers didn’t manage to pay him less than what he’s worth, but with a cap of $70 million this is a reasonable deal.

    If the OIlers could only get rid of NK, and then sign a back-up on the cheap…

  49. nathan says:

    El Guapo,

    If he goes to arbitration I believe the same threshold suggests a 2 way award to the arbitrator. But he can present evidence for a 1 way.

  50. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    goldenchild,

    “Hard to believe the same group negotiated these 2 contracts.”

    Who knows… maybe they had two different groups. The team that went to Tor to get schultz did JP and ST did DDs deal.

  51. Lowetide says:

    The Dubnyk contract isn’t a good contract from here. His EV SP is in the range with the higher paid goalies in his age, but it is at the low range. I don’t think this is a good contract. Seems like most people I’m reading online aren’t thrilled either.

    If my $1.8M per year times two isn’t a good estimate, what would have been? $2.2M times two?

  52. nathan says:

    Too bad they can’t hold arbitration meetings at the arena. I’d go just to watch Gagner’s side put those 8 points up on the jumbotron. All proceeds to whatever the arbitrator awards.

    Seriously this must be a thread record for Gagner posts without a smurf reference. Dubnyk blocks out the sun,

  53. Ducey says:

    DD was in the same draft (2004) as Schneider. DD has 101 NHL games, Schneider has 68.

    Both make $3.5 M per year.

    Seems fair.

  54. Maverick says:

    Really like the Petry contract, a little low but a bargain for the team, was guessing $2.5M a year on a 3 year deal so getting less and still a RFA after the contract is a bonus.

    How is this team judging talent on Goal-tenders? $3.5M for Dubnyk is way toooo much, sorry not convinced he is a #1. Spending $7.25M on goalies this year. However, looking strictly on salary he ranks top 20 in cap hit, is Dubnyk a top 20 goalie in the league? By the way, Khabby is ranked 17th in cap hit, yikes! At least he comes off the books next year.

    Gagner and arbitration, interesting, time for comparables, I again see a plus $4m per year contract coming his way, and if that is the case, I’m willing to say good bye to Gagner in a trade.

  55. speeds says:

    El Guapo,

    His previous contract was a 1 way

  56. bookje says:

    St Albert and Sherwood Park leech off of the City of Edmonton. It’s nice to do while you can get away with it.

  57. El Guapo says:

    nathan:
    El Guapo,

    If he goes to arbitration I believe the same threshold suggests a 2 way award to the arbitrator. But he can present evidence for a 1 way.

    Yes, I think that is correct, in a team elected arbitration the team cannot take a position on salary that is less than the qualifying offer, and so I am guessing that they would also be arguing that he should receive a two way deal. Peckham can then argue he deserves a one way deal. The arbitrator has the discretion to make the one or two year contract award (which would be Peckham’s choice before the arb begins) either one or two way.

    So I think Speeds is onto something, Peckham likely did not accept the QO as it likely has a two way component and he is negotiating for a one way.

  58. Cactus says:

    Lowetide,

    The more I look at the capgeek list, the more I’m satisfied with this deal. If anyone missed it, here it is again:

    http://capgeek.com/comparables.php?season=2012&player=49

    I know some people are complaining because Stauffer or someone compared this contract to Rask and Schneider, but it’s really not. Schneider’s performance is better, but he’s played fewer games and has a better D (plus he got $500,000 more anyways). Rask isn’t giving up any UFA years so his contract is actually better than DD.

    If you look at similar goalies of similar age, giving up at least 1 UFA years, you get guys like Lehtonen (3.55M cap hit), Halak ($3.75M), Niemi ($3.8M), Anderson ($3.187) and Pavelec ($3.9M). Some of these guys have better numbers than DD, some have worse. None of them played behind worse defences.

    The only significant underpays I find on this list are Jimmy Howard ($2.25M) and Mike Smith ($2M). Thing is, Howard signed his deal coming off of a 2.79, .908 season and Smith had bumped around a few places and was having a hard time sticking to a team.

    In other words, even $2.2M would be a huge underpay LT. $3 – 3.25M is probably fair range and $3.5M might be a slight overpay.

    I know there are those that disagree with this and think $3.5M for a young starting goalie is too much. Fair enough. But I’d really like to see comparables that demonstrate this because I don’t really see any.

  59. Henry says:

    “Steve Smith”: I was in New Brunswick when that broke, and people were talking about it there; I decided against letting it slip that that’s where I grew up.

    That’s what happens when a community gets pavement.

  60. Henry says:

    Happened in Fort Saskatchewan too. They kicked me out.

  61. Lowetide says:

    Cactus: The Oilers themselves stated in the spring they wanted DD to step up and grab the job. So, why pay him like he’s an established goalie?

  62. "Steve Smith" says:

    tdslvr: Totally agree. I don’t think you could sign a starting goaltender for less. The Oilers didn’t manage to pay him less than what he’s worth, but with a cap of $70 million this is a reasonable deal.

    Well, the question is whether you pay him for his anticipated role, or his established contributions (should the Oilers have given Eric Fichaud that kind of money – adjusted for inflation – when the voices in their heads told them that he was going to be their starter?). I think the answer’s probably a little of both.

    But I don’t think it’s established that Dubnyk is our starter. He’s still trying out for the job. It is not at all inconceivable that he will prove that he’s not up to it, and we’ll be sitting here next summer trying to figure out who our 2013-2014 starter will be. Which is fine, since we’re not supposed to contend this year anyway, but less fine in view of the fact we’ll then have a $3.5 million backup…again.

  63. speeds says:

    Cactus,

    The only relevant comparison for arb purposes are rfa goalies, so a number of those guys don’t work as comparables.

    I think, in looking more deeply at the relevant comparables, I was low on my initial 2 mil number. That said, I don’t think I’d have signed that deal, right now. See if he files for arbitration first, if he doesn’t, then look for a lower number. If he does, see how that works out.

    I wouldn’t have filed for arbitration with Dubnyk though, because you can’t walk away from an arb award if the team files, only if the player files.

  64. Ducey says:

    Lowetide:
    The Dubnyk contract isn’t a good contract from here. His EV SP is in the range with the higher paid goalies in his age, but it is at the low range. I don’t think this is a good contract. Seems like most people I’m reading online aren’t thrilled either.

    If my $1.8M per year times two isn’t a good estimate, what would have been? $2.2M times two?

    LT, look at Corey Crawford. He got $2.66 M a year for three years. That contract bought an extra year of RFA (so you would count DD’s last year) and Crawford had about 75 NHL games at the time he signed it.

    So you have Crawford getting $7.98 M over 3 years. DD’s salary over the equivalent three years (including last year) ? $7.8 M

    Unless I have missed something it looks right on.

  65. Lowetide says:

    Ducey: LT, look at Corey Crawford.He got $2.66 M a year for three years.That contract bought an extra year of RFA (so you would count DD’s last year) and Crawford had about 75 NHL games at the time he signed it.

    So you have Crawford getting $7.8 M over 3 years.DD’s salary over the equivalentthree years (including last year) ?$7.8 M

    Unless I have missed something it looks right on.

    If he’d signed for $2.66M for three years then the conversation would be different. The Oilers are paying him like he’s established and I don’t see it. And I’m a Dubnyk fan. Hey, I’m certainly out of my depth when discussing contracts and certainly others have spent much more time on these things, but lordy that looks like a contract that has every chance of biting them in the ass.

  66. Professor Q says:

    Lowetide,

    At least it’s not as bad as Horcoff’s

  67. anonymous says:

    Hopefully this is not foreshadowing and I like Dubnyk but what’s next,
    5 for Smid, 5.5 for Gagner, 8 for Hall and Eberle?

  68. bookje says:

    Maybe its a ‘we believe in you’ contract like Luongo got to build his confidence.

  69. Beaker says:

    Just banish NK to a gulag somewhere and trade Peckham and a second rounder to Ottawa for Ben Bishop and I’m happy.

  70. anonymous says:

    They may have the Hawks post cup problems before
    they get out of the lottery.

  71. gogliano says:

    2.67 for his RFA year and 3.33 for his UFA year would seem about fair to me. Hard to see this as either a market or a value contract. He has yet to prove himself as a starter and has struggled with consistency.

    My guess is his status as a first round pick and homegrown goalie helped him in negotiations (when it should’t have)–probably not explicitly but just in setting the context. He has been groomed to be a #1 since his draft and they are beginning to pay him like one.

    That said, I don’t think $2 million gets you in the room. Cap is now at $70 million, he has hit the century mark in games, and maintains a slightly below median starter’s save percentage.

    Love the Petry deal. No need to give term let’s see what we have first. If he asks for the moon when the stars need contracts he will be an asset you can move very easily.

    And if we want a silver lining in the DD deal it’s that DD is now clearly breaking camp as the #1. If he plays like the last half of the season he can bring this team to the playoffs, I think.

  72. hunter1909 says:

    bookje:
    Maybe its a ‘we believe in you’ contract like Luongo got to build his confidence.

    Just like the 50 million bucks the President of Hockey Operations anted up, to make Horcoff think he’s a 1st liner?

  73. serum114 says:

    After the Pavelec, Rask, and Schneider deals I was expecting something in the $3 mil per range on a shorter deal (2 years) or $4 mil per on a longer one (4 years). An overpay by ~500K IMO, but I do like the shorter term. You never know with goalies and it’s doubtful there will be a dearth of them in two years time–if not Dubnyk then, someone worthwhile will be available.

    As for the not established piece, I think it was clear last year he was the starter and there have been comments to that effect by the team this offseason. Dubnyk is an NHL starter (around 20th in the league or so) and got lower end starting money.

  74. hunter1909 says:

    gogliano: And if we want a silver lining in the DD deal it’s that DD is now clearly breaking camp as the #1. If he plays like the last half of the season he can bring this team to the playoffs, I think.

    Why? Because we’re overpaying him?

  75. Lucinius says:

    Love the Petry deal.

    Very surprised by the reaction (and LT’s estimate) on the Dubnyk deal. Its an over-pay, but not by all that much (500kish, imo), given the cap and what he is — a starter. I don’t think even 2.5 mil per would have gotten you in the room, especially given the current market for goaltenders.

  76. anonymous says:

    Maybe the problem is the”capologist”. If he is the number 1 goalie, he has to be paid like it?

  77. PaperDesigner says:

    With a cap hit of 70 million, how much would the average player get on a cap team? Answer: just over three million.

    This might seem like a fairly rich contract, but it might just be an adjustment to current economics.

    If your third line centre is the definitive average player on your team, by the way, that puts Horcoff as a 2.4 million overpay in cap hit. Bad, but not enough to throw their salary structure out of whack… Yet.

  78. Kris11 says:

    Oddly, the Oilers would have had a great case with the arbitrator that Dubnyk is not a “starter” (whatever that means).

    Every year, we are told that Khabi is the starter. And at the beggining of the season, Khabi gets more games. Dubnyk only comes in regularly when Khabi is injured or “fatigued.”

    Over the games he has backed up Khabi, Dubnyk has pit up a .910 He has not ever had a season where he put himself in he top 15 in SV. He dhas never been nominated for an award. He was not particularly dominant in the AHL. Indeed, there is a strong case that Dubnyk is a good backup, not a starter.

    So why not make that case at arbitration and try to get him in at less than 3.5? The worst case scenario is that the arbitrator says he is as good as Rask and should get 3.5. Maybe, the arbitrator goes insane and says 3.75. But that’s the deal Dubnyk wanted. That’s a shitty move, IMO: Give him the worst case scenario money before we go to arbitration cause there’s a chance that the arbitrator might give him the worst case scenario money.

    Tukka Rask got a 3.5MM deal and has a .926 career NHL sv compared to Dubnyk’s .910.

    Rask is better than Dubnyk by any measure. What are the odds an arbitartor would give Dubnyk more than Rask. (Maybe a little more because of the age and UFA situation.) I’d say those odds are ridiculously low. But there was a chance, a good one, that Dubnyk would be viewed by an arbitrator as less than Varlamov and Rask, and given something in the 2MM range.

  79. rickithebear says:

    talking contracts without pre contract results.
    Classic for here.
    DD was .915 Sv% for the last two years.
    goalies around this. +/- .002 SV%

    backstrom 6.0M .917 SV%
    Niemi 3.8M .917 SV%
    Theodore 1.5M .916 SV%
    Miller 6.25M .916 Sv%
    Jonas Hiller at 4.5 .916 SV%
    Varlamov 2.83M .916 Sv%
    Dubnyk 1.2M .915 SV%
    Miika Kiprusoff at 5.6 .914 SV%
    Howard 2.25M .914 Sv%

    Average Salary is 4.15M

    theodore 35 at he start of the season in a re-establish contract.
    Varlaomov first rfa contract.

    so 2RFa and Ufa. 4.8M

    two seasons of top 15 Sv% is established.
    He out performed Price the last half of the season.

    what agent doesn’t get him 20th best salary for a top 15 goalie.

  80. Dee Dee says:

    RE:•The Dubnyk deal is an overpay of no small proportion

    At least he’s outplaying the 39 year old guy who’s making even more money…

  81. rickithebear says:

    Man complaining about DD contract.
    your all turning into leafs fans!
    Sucked for so long no understanding of what is good.

  82. Lowetide says:

    ricki: You’ve got rfa’s ufa’s and flying saucers mixed together. There’s no chance Dubnyk can be compared to Theodore or Kiprusoff.

  83. Kris11 says:

    I do get that he new cap is 70MM and money won’t go as far as it used to.

    But you still have to try as hard to pinch pennies where possible. Every failure to do this is a GM’s failure, and the more of them there are, the more the MSM should call for the GM’s firing.

    —-

    Here’s another way of putting the same point. How many teams would trade a second round pick for Dubnyk (with is SV percentage) at 3.5MM to be their starter? It seems to me like his new cap hit and the fact that he is unproven as anything but a decent backup would make him hard to move at all.

  84. Kris11 says:

    Oh, I mean supposing he puts up another season at his historical average of .910, which is what we should expect. How many teams would want a 3.5MM goalie who puts up .910 with some variation.

  85. anonymous says:

    rickithebear,

    Yes but Kiprusoff’s .914, Backstrom’s .917 and others starting the majority of the games
    are more impressive than Dubnyk”s .915 in a backup/spot starter role.

  86. bookje says:

    Maybe there was a sense of underpayment and ‘making good’ on the previous contract?

    I don’t know – it seems high to me for such a short term for an unproven goalie (and like LT, I am a fan of DD and hope he can establish himself).

  87. Kris11 says:

    Ricki,

    You also have some Vezina winners and nominees in there who have had one or two years that brought down the average.

    Expecting the same from Kiprusoff and Dubnyk based on a two year average is crazy.

    BTW, I think we should switch to ES SV as a better indicator of performance, but can’t find those numbers. Not sure if GMs and arbitrators worry about he distinction between SV and ES SV. Probably not, but we should.

  88. Traktor says:

    The fact that Edmonton was even going to give Dubnyk a starters opportunity is a great deal in itself even if he was only making 1.5M.

    The problem is he is being paid like he has already been successful in the role.

  89. rickithebear says:

    Kris11: Oh, I mean supposing he puts up another season at his historical average of .910, which is what we should expect. How many teams would want a 3.5MM goalie who puts up .910 with some variation.

    Imagine if Price reverts back

    Lowetide:
    ricki: You’ve gotrfa’s ufa’s and flying saucers mixed together. There’s no chance Dubnyk can be compared to Theodore or Kiprusoff.

    Lowetide: ricki: You’ve got rfa’s ufa’s and flying saucers mixed together. There’s no chance Dubnyk can be compared to Theodore or Kiprusoff.

    Lt: No i have the .914 to .917 sv% group and there average. What would DD agent present.
    The kid is a .915 Sv% goalie. on the worst team in the league.

    He does compare to that group the last two years. we do not give him this money he is gone in two years when he is a .920+ Sv% goalie playing with good D.

    We see .920 for the next two years we are paying 6M.

  90. Kris11 says:

    I also generally prescribe to the dictum that you should avoid big money for goalies unless hey are top 10. (MC79 told us this was one of the main reasons the Khabi contract was bad. Most goalies are about the same with wild variation in SV percentage. So just find the cheapest one of those. Or, if you can, get one of the guys who os proven dominant and pay through the nose. But paying medium sized deals for blah goalies who look slightly better than cheaper goalies is a bad strategy. I disagreed then, but man was I wrong.)

  91. Lowetide says:

    kris: EV is a better stat and favors DD.

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm?season=20112012&gameType=2&team=EDM&position=G&country=&status=&viewName=specialTeamSaves#?navid=nav-sts-indiv

    hope that works, it’s nhl.com goalies/special teams. DD is .927, which is tied for 14th among regulars. That’s his strongest story imo.

  92. Ribs says:

    Maybe it was a “Give him whatever he wants or we’re fudged” contract. If he holds out you potentially start the season with Khabibulin and Danis and your AHL team takes a blow, too. No UFA tenders left to sign (Roloson? Ha).

    The streak had to end some time.

  93. Kris11 says:

    By “wild variation” I mean average goalies have there SV percentages vary wildly, but all have similiar odds of putting up average numbers,

  94. anonymous says:

    Maybe the strategy is to overpay the homegrown talent young so that when
    it comes to the big one they sign a fair deal. If it works great but if it doesn’t
    all is lost.

  95. Kris11 says:

    LT, that’s good news. Very good news. I am a bit comforted, but not entirely.

    I’ve been looking for that number. Thanks.

  96. Traktor says:

    Is Dubnyk better than Tommy Salo when he played here?

  97. hunter1909 says:

    Traktor:
    The fact that Edmonton was even going to give Dubnyk a starters opportunity is a great deal in itself even if he was only making 1.5M.

    The problem is he is being paid like he has already been successful in the role.

    The MO of this unorganisation seems to be to do just that. Horcoff was handed a crazy contract too, while Penner was paid years in advance of his ever actually doing anything.

    It’s going to become even more of a concern once Gagner gets his inevitable overpaid arbitration award. I’ll take Gordie Howe, meekly awarding himself 100.00 a season raises over these commies.

    All this talking up DD like he’s suddenly a top 15 NHL goaltender is very, very Leafs Nationesque.

  98. anonymous says:

    Traktor,

    What year? If I was signing this contract I would have took a look at what it would take to get Luongo. His deal looks a lot better to me now than it did yesterday.

  99. spoiler says:

    Absolutely horrible contract for Dubnyk.

    That’s what happens when the agent knows you have no other options (and none were available this summer). Thank god they kept the term down. That agent better know his player because this is a contract that could ruin him.

  100. Lowetide says:

    If these contracts are based on a 70M cap and the actual cap is reduced in the new CBA, will these contracts be rolled back by percentage?

  101. spoiler says:

    Lowetide:
    If these contracts are based on a 70M cap and the actual cap is reduced in the new CBA, will these contracts be rolled back by percentage?

    That would be my guess too. But I can’t see them rolled back to less than last year’s cap hit.

  102. Jesse says:

    Traktor:
    Is Dubnyk better than Tommy Salo when he played here?

    NO.

    …not yet anyway.

    I’d be interested in your official take on Tommy Salo’s Oiler career Lowetide. He was my idol when I was 12, and so I likely saw him through rose tinted glasses.

  103. GordM says:

    Only reason I figure Dubnyk gets north of $3mil is because Katz wants his team’s union rep in an owner-friendly frame of mind heading into CBA negotiations!

  104. Gerta Rauss says:

    Lowetide:
    If these contracts are based on a 70M cap and the actual cap is reduced in the new CBA, will these contracts be rolled back by percentage?

    Nobody knows for certain-that’s where all this amnesty clause talk comes from-a $70M cap this year and then ?? next year based on a 50/50 split of revenue(down from 57?%now) I also saw a suggestion that there may be a cushion next year ie: teams can go over the cap by X% for 1 year. It’s uncharted waters.

  105. Cactus says:

    Wow. I thought that a decent look through the capgeek comparables would be sufficient for people to see that this contract is right in the appropriate range, with the small possibility of a $250-500K overpay. Instead, people seem to be freaking out over extra people on the list who don’t fit, rather than looking at the closest comps (same thing happened to Ricki). Fine then, make me do the extra work.

    I’m going to walk through a group of goaltenders that is in a similar situation to Dubnyk. My criteria for this is goalies who signed as RFAs on a deal longer than 1 year and one in which at least 1 year of UFA status is paid for. I’m also posting the stats from the year immediately prior to the contract on tthe assumption that NHL GMs are fairly short-sighted in performance considerations.

    Here are the goalies we get from that:
    Lehtonen, DAL, 3 years at $3.55M – 10 GS, 2.81 GAA, .911 SV%, .921 EV%
    Halak, STL, 4 years at $3.75M – 43GS, 2.40 GAA, .924 SV%, .933 EV%
    Pavelec, WPG, 5 years at $3.9M – 67GS, 2.91 GAA, .906 SV%, .917 EV%
    Schneider, VAN, 3 years at $4M – 28GS, 1.96 GAA, .937 SV%, .931 EV%
    Crawford, CHI, 3 years at $2.67M – 55GS, 2.30 GAA, .917 SV%, .924 EV%

    AVERAGE: 3.6 years at $3.574M – 40.6 GS, 2.48 GAA, .919 SV%, .925 EV%

    There’s also two others close in age, but they signed as UFAs. I’m including them for completeness (and also because I did the work before realizing the UFA status):
    Niemi, SJ, 4 years at $3.8M – 60 GS, 2.38 GAA, .920 SV%, .931 EV%
    Howard, DET, 2 years at $2.00M – 63 GS, 2.79 GAA, .908 SV%, .916 EV%

    And now here’s our boy (compared to the averages of the first 5):
    Dubnyk, EDM, 2 years at $3.5M – 42 GS, 2.67 GAA, .914 SV%, .927 EV%
    AVERAGE: 3.6 years at $3.574M – 40.6 GS, 2.48 GAA, .919 SV%, .925 EV%

    So what does this tell us? Compared to his most similar goalies in age and contract, Dubnyk has:

    -Taken fewer years than the average contract (both good and bad for him), at almost exactly the average salary
    -He has started a similar number of games compared to these goalies – only two of the five started more than half the games
    -His GAA and SV% are a little lower than the average, but it would be hard to argue that he doesn’t play behind the worst defence of all his comparables
    -His EV% is slightly ahead of the average, indicating that he’s definitely in this range, despite slightly higher SV% and GAA
    -Cory Schneider will drop off next year – a higher SV% than EV%? Seriously??

    Looking at these numbers, I see a fair contract for a goalie of Dubnyk’s experience and performance, going into the year where he’s the clear #1. The Oilers may have said he has to seize it, but this contract makes it clear that everyone understands that this is like taking candy from a geriatric.

    Please let me know if I’ve missed something or if there are somehow better comparables. I just don’t see it.

  106. rickithebear says:

    spoiler: Absolutely horrible contract for Dubnyk.

    it was from Jan. on we saw alot less movement in the crease. I hope his ease was the realization he was becoming the #1. if we see the same ease next year we are one happy team.

    he was still to active on the PK. But that is the last to come.

  107. Gerta Rauss says:

    Gerta Rauss: Nobody knows for certain-that’s where all this amnesty clause talk comes from-a $70M cap this year and then ?? next year based on a 50/50 split of revenue(down from 57?%now) I also saw a suggestion that there may be a cushion next year ie: teams can go over the cap by X% for 1 year. It’s uncharted waters.

    Poorly worded on my part-the 50/50 split was referring to the NBA settlement and the suggestion is that the NHL will follow suit in their current CBA negotiation.

  108. speeds says:

    Cactus,

    I’ve looked at it a bit as well, and I think the contract is better than I initially thought, relative to the market. had Dubnyk filed for arbitration. I would probably still have looked at one year, curious why EDM went 2 years instead of 1, or 3.

  109. Lowetide says:

    Cactus:
    Wow.I thought that a decent look through the capgeek comparables would be sufficient for people to see that this contract is right in the appropriate range, with the small possibility of a $250-500K overpay.Instead, people seem to be freaking out over extra people on the list who don’t fit, rather than looking at the closest comps (same thing happened to Ricki).Fine then, make me do the extra work.

    I’m going to walk through a group of goaltenders that is in a similar situation to Dubnyk.My criteria for this is goalies who signed as RFAs on a deal longer than 1 year and one in which at least 1 year of UFA status is paid for.I’m also posting the stats from the year immediately prior to the contract on tthe assumption that NHL GMs are fairly short-sighted in performance considerations.

    Here are the goalies we get from that:
    Lehtonen, DAL, 3 years at $3.55M – 10 GS, 2.81 GAA, .911 SV%, .921 EV%
    Halak, STL, 4 years at $3.75M – 43GS, 2.40 GAA, .924 SV%, .933 EV%
    Pavelec, WPG, 5 years at $3.9M – 67GS, 2.91 GAA, .906 SV%, .917 EV%
    Schneider, VAN, 3 years at $4M – 28GS, 1.96 GAA, .937 SV%, .931 EV%
    Crawford, CHI, 3 years at $2.67M – 55GS, 2.30 GAA, .917 SV%, .924 EV%

    AVERAGE: 3.6 years at $3.574M – 40.6 GS, 2.48 GAA, .919 SV%, .925 EV%

    There’s also two others close in age, but they signed as UFAs.I’m including them for completeness (and also because I did the work before realizing the UFA status):
    Niemi, SJ, 4 years at $3.8M – 60 GS, 2.38 GAA, .920 SV%, .931 EV%
    Howard, DET, 2 years at $2.00M – 63 GS, 2.79 GAA, .908 SV%, .916 EV%

    And now here’s our boy (compared to the averages of the first 5):
    Dubnyk, EDM, 2 years at $3.5M – 42 GS, 2.67 GAA, .914 SV%, .927 EV%
    AVERAGE: 3.6 years at $3.574M – 40.6 GS, 2.48 GAA, .919 SV%, .925 EV%

    So what does this tell us?Compared to his most similar goalies in age and contract, Dubnyk has:

    -Taken fewer years than the average contract (both good and bad for him), at almost exactly the average salary
    -He has started a similar number of games compared to these goalies – only two of the five started more than half the games
    -His GAA and SV% are a little lower than the average, but it would be hard to argue that he doesn’t play behind the worst defence of all his comparables
    -His EV% is slightly ahead of the average, indicatingthat he’s definitely in this range, despite slightly higher SV% and GAA
    -Cory Schneider will drop off next year – a higher SV% than EV%?Seriously??

    Looking at these numbers, I see a fair contract for a goalie of Dubnyk’s experience and performance, going into the year where he’s the clear #1.The Oilers may have said he has to seize it, but this contract makes it clear that everyone understands that this is like taking candy from a geriatric.

    Please let me know if I’ve missed something or if there are somehow better comparables.I just don’t see it.

    Hmmm. Well, Cactus, that’s some interesting ciphering. Now you’ve got me wondering why they didn’t do an extra year. I see your point, thanks for all the hard work. I feel better about this deal now.

  110. Cactus says:

    Lowetide,

    Thanks. I was wondering about the term as well. It’s a weird number, as it’s both good and bad for DD:

    -Good: Dubnyk gets a good salary right now, and has the potential (assuming the Oilers improve) to outperform his contract and get a long term deal worth $5M +
    -Bad: If he underperforms, he could be taking a minimum salary to serve as the backup in Dallas 2 years from now, with no long-term security.

    As often happens in negotiations, it’s possible that they both wanted more term, but the Oilers wouldn’t put up the dollars and Dubnyk didn’t want to lock in at $3.5M if he thought he could make $5M.

  111. Maverick says:

    Maybe I was spoiled during the Moog, Fuhr, Ranford, Joseph eras (throw in some games by Tommy Salo) of what a Number #1 goalie actually is. Dubnyk is now getting paid to be a #1, with that I would expect him to steal at least 5 games on his own this year because that is what true #1 goalies do. If he still struggles with his crease movement and his rebound control and is still developing I think there will be a major problem in the crease this year.

    I realize the defense in front of him wasn’t nearly good enough last year, however, when the game is on the line and a big save is needed Dubnyk has to perform, if not the contract will be his down fall from the pressure and it will makes us all forget about those terrible capital power commercials in the process.

    I wish him luck this year and will be cheering him on to do well but I have my doubts about his ability and the logic behind the contract from management’s point of view. Tambellini has signed Khabby for 3 years at 3.75m per and now Dubnyk 2 years at 3.5M, that is alot of money thrown at two not sure fire goalies, someone keep the pro scouts and Tambellini and Ricky O away from signing any more goaltenders.

    If someone has highlight packages of Moog, Fuhr, Ranford, Joseph please send them to the Oiler Office, I think they have forgotten what a great top 5 goalie looks like in Oiler silks.

  112. FastOil says:

    More mixed messages from management. Overpay the untested goalie, stiff the guy who did and will have to handle top pairing RH D barring miraculous activity from MacTambeLowe, and fight the only proven young second C in the system. They really need to get a handle on appropriate value contracts or there could be some issues in a few years.

    Always weird with the Oilers, kind of like hillbilly weird.

  113. Doug McLachlan says:

    LT you lead the chorus to declaring the DD contract a massive overpay (in large part because we don’t know if he’s a true number one) and now that the numbers actually show the contract may be a fair one we start complaining that we didn’t get sufficient term?!?

    If it was an overpay it was a small one IMO and if anything was fair compensation for the rubber hazard he faced with Barker near his crease for far too long a season :)

    We will get a good chance to see what we have over the next two years and I’m cool with that.

    DD has the net and Khabibulin backs him up in a contract year. Who want’s to bet that NK has his best numbers in Oiler silks this season (I know that isn’t setting the bar too high).

    I think we need to give Tambo another B to B+ for these signings because the Petry one looks very nice to my eyes.

  114. Maverick says:

    I did not include Roloson, the sample size was only the playoffs of 2006, when he was acquired he struggled down the stretch but turned it on during the playoffs. And he had an amazing playoffs in 2006. He was ok during the regular season but got beat out of the #1 spot by Garon a year later. In my books Roloson wasn’t good enough.

  115. Lowetide says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    LT you lead the chorus to declaring the DD contract a massive overpay (in large part because we don’t know if he’s a true number one) and now that the numbers actually show the contract may be a fair one we start complaining that we didn’t get sufficient term?!?

    If it was an overpay it was a small one IMO and if anything was fair compensation for the rubber hazard he faced with Barker near his crease for far too long a season :)

    We will get a good chance to see what we have over the next two years and I’m cool with that.

    DD has the net and Khabibulin backs him up in a contract year. Who want’s to bet that NK has his best numbers in Oiler silks this season (I know that isn’t setting the bar too high).

    I think we need to give Tambo another B to B+ for these signings because the Petry one looks very nice to my eyes.

    I’ve been wrong before, Doug. And will be again. Time has a way of teaching a person that one. :-)

  116. DSF says:

    CapGeek ‏@capgeek

    The #Oilers re-signing of Devan Dubnyk pushes their goalie payroll to No. 8 in the #NHL at $7.25M. http://www.capgeek.com/positional_comparison.php?position=G

    Just ridiculous considering their goaltending is several notches below average.

    Death by paper cut.

    And more evidence that the Oiler brass has no grasp of the concepts of of the principles of leverage or negotiation.

  117. Cactus says:

    DSF,

    No one is denying that the Khabibulin contract was and is a disaster. It also comes off the books after next year.

    Doesn’t stop the Dubnyk contract from being average value. Not an overpay, not a bargain. If you think screwing up the Khabby contract should cause the Oilers to stiff DD just so their average salary is palatable, then maybe YOU should review leverage and negotiation principles.

  118. DSF says:

    Cactus:
    DSF,

    No one is denying that the Khabibulin contract was and is a disaster.It also comes off the books after next year.

    Doesn’t stop the Dubnyk contract from being average value.Not an overpay, not a bargain.If you think screwing up the Khabby contract should cause the Oilers to stiff DD just so their average salary is palatable, then maybe YOU should review leverage and negotiation principles.

    At this point in time, DD has proven he MIGHT be an NHL backup.

    Ridiculous contract.

  119. Ducey says:

    DSF, you live in an eastern timezone? You only seem to come out after dark….

    I guess you missed who was #2 on that list you provided.

    Cactus, thanks for that. As I said above, DD’s contract seems perfectly in line with Schneider’s and Crawford’s – two of the closest comparables in terms of age and experience.

  120. DSF says:

    No, I live on the west coast.

    The second team on the list is actively shopping their highest paid goaltender and will eventually trade him.

    But that has nothing to do with Dubnyk being a sub par goaltender at every level he has played.

    His best season in the AHL was .915.

    That’s a bad number in the AHL.

    His best season in the NHL is .916 in only 35 games.

    Schneider’s best season in the AHL was .930.

    His best season in the NHL was .937.

    His playoff save percentage is .940.

    One of these is NOT like the others no matter how hard you squint.

  121. FastOil says:

    Ducey:
    DSF, you live in an eastern timezone?You only seem to come out after dark….

    I guess you missed who was #2 on that list you provided.

    Cactus,thanks for that.As I said above, DD’s contract seems perfectly in line with Schneider’s and Crawford’s – two of the closest comparables in terms of age and experience.

    Crawford’s contract would be an argument for why an unproven goalie shouldn’t be paid like this, wouldn’t it?

    Schneider has been better and has playoff games on his resume. 2.5M would have been fair and lots. Other team’s bad contracts don’t set the market, they make lottery winners out of lucky players. The only team that would have signed this deal IMO is the Oilers, and that’s the problem, again.

  122. DSF says:

    FastOil: Crawford’s contract would be an argument for why an unproven goalie shouldn’t be paid like this, wouldn’t it?

    Schneider has been better and has playoff games on his resume. 2.5M would have been fair and lots. Other team’s bad contracts don’t set the market, they make lottery winners out of lucky players. The only team that would have signed this deal IMO is the Oilers, and that’s the problem, again.

    Sums it up pretty well.

    I’d say, with an increased workload, there’s a 50-50 chance Dubnyk regresses next season.

    Then, the Oilers are in a position where they have to sign a starting goaltender to replace Khabibulin.

    Likely, they’ll have to pay that player more than Dubnyk so they’ll be in a position of tying up significant cap dollars in goaltending and paying a backup about three times what he’s worth.

    That’s a very, very bad bet.

  123. PunjabiOil says:

    A few comments:

    DUBNYK
    - I liked the term. Dubnyk has a way to go before proving himself. No reason to give him more than 2 years. Worst case scenario he gets bought out next summer.
    - Don’t like the dollars. He has not established himself as a starter, and his agent got him dollars at best case scenario. Numbers won’t show how many soft goals he’s allowed over the years at critical moments, nor will they show how he lost the starting position after being handed it in game 1.
    - His .914% is a hair above the league average of .912%. Again, lots of work to do.

    PETRY
    - I don’t like this deal either. This was an opportunity to lock up a good player 4-5 years.
    - The Oilers don’t need the cap space now – they are well under it in the current year. They will need it down the road – pay a little more now, than paying more in 2 summers. In 2 summers Petry can just file for arbitration and walk away as a UFA the year after.

    OVERALL
    - Lets be honest – the Dubnyk deal won’t hurt the Oilers, at least not this season. They’re well under the cap, and it doesn’t appear they will be attempting to improve this team in any manner. This is the same team sans Yakupov and Schultz. For some reason appear allergic to depth. God forbid they go after Roszival (Stauffer mentioned they are not pursuing him)

    It’s more troubling the Oilers:

    a) cannot use leverage when they have it, when negotiating contracts (Khabibulin, Dubnyk)
    b) Fail to lock up younger rising players when opportunity presents itself.

    Kevin Lowe made the same mistake after the lockout when he failed to lock up Hemsky, Stoll, Horcoff, Pisani, Smyth to longer term contracts. He ended up paying more than he had to because he wasn’t aggressive enough. Of course after that off-season, he proceeded to give every older veteran on the downside of his career, and his mothers longer-term contracts at lucrative compensation (Staios, Roloson, Moreau, Horcoff, etc.). What mismanagement.

    Steve has been similarly risk averse thus far, opting for short-term contracts. Which is okay for players like Jones. Part of being a good manager is identifying players that are worthy of long-term contracts.

    I think Petry and Smid were.

    Such management could end up costing in the long-run.

    The more things change…the more they say the same.

    Sigh.

  124. Kris11 says:

    Cactus,

    Which of those goalies is worse than Dubnyk via SV percentage. (I doubt arbitrators look at ES SV) and makes more than 3.5?

    I argue that arbitrators are likely to look at SV, pedigree, and even AHL performance. By those standards, the absolute max that an arbitrator would’ve awarded is Rask’s 3.5. But depending on how the arbitrator viewed Dubnyk’s numbers, he could’ve gotten a significantly lower number. Arbitration was a better bet than giving him 3.5MM.

    If it wasn’t what comp would an arbitartor use to give Dubnyk more than 3.5. Even your avergae of 3.5 for goalies with an average of .919 Sv should have Dubnyk making less than 3.5 because .914 is a long ways from .919 for goalies. So Bubnyk should be a long ways from 3.5 MM.

    I get that an arbitrator could give 3.5MM, I don’t see how he could justify more. So why not take a risk in arbitration?

  125. TheOtherJohn says:

    Have no difficulty with Petry contract. Should have gone after longer term.

    The Dubnyk contract is contnuation of very mediocre salary cap management . The Oilers spent $61m last year and landed 5 ft from DFL, the previous 2 years DFL ….. In a cakewalk!! Over that time period they were within spitting distance of the cap or had guys buried in AhL (Souray, Zorg, JDD) It’s contracts exactly like this that, cumulatively, lead, to very large payroll tied to a bad team

    Arguments can be made that Josh Harding is a Dubnyk comparable and he got $5.7 m over 3 years

    Very few businesses pay anyone for what they hope you will do for them. Most pay for what you have already done for them

  126. striatic says:

    with the cap increase this year, this really isn’t an overpay by much. certainly not a horrible contract. just an above average one.

    why Petry signed for so little is beyond me. i feel like DD should be paid 500k less and Petry 500k more.

  127. DSF says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Have no difficulty with Petry contract. Should have gone after longer term.

    The Dubnyk contract is contnuationof very mediocre salary cap management . The Oilers spent $61m last year andlanded 5 ft from DFL, the previous 2 years DFL ….. In a cakewalk!! Over that time period they were within spitting distance of the cap or had guys buried in AhL (Souray, Zorg, JDD) It’s contracts exactly like this that, cumulatively, lead, to very large payroll tied to a bad team

    Arguments can be made that Josh Harding is a Dubnyk comparable and he got $5.7 m over 3 years

    Very few businesses pay anyone for what they hope you will do for them. Most pay for what you have already done for them

    Great post.

    Base on what we’ve seen, I would think Petry should have been awarded the increased “hope”.

    Hard to understand how one contract is a bargain and the other is just off the charts stupid.

  128. DSF says:

    striatic:
    with the cap increase this year, this really isn’t an overpay by much. certainly not a horrible contract. just an above average one.

    why Petry signed for so little is beyond me. i feel like DD should be paid 500k less and Petry 500k more.

    Dubyk is getting paid at least twice what he is worth…no matter what the cap says.

  129. VOR says:

    Actually, Kris11, Dubnyk has now reached the age when all an arbitrator will be looking at his EV SV% and the context in which it was achieved. As goalies age their EV SV% becomes increasingly predictive of future performance.

    Dubnyk faced a lot of rubber the last two years and put up really good EV SV%. He also didn’t miss a lot of time due to injury. All this despite playing behind a defence that was terrible.

    Where you choose to put him on the grid is up for debate but he has now reached the point in his career where EV SV% is more predictive than total sv% and that is the metric you need to use in your argument.

  130. nathan says:

    hunter dont think that word overpay means what you think it means. if gagner is an inevitable overpay by arbitraator no doubt you think avoiding arbitration by paying expected arbitration result as per dd is an overpay.,

  131. BONVIE says:

    He proved last year he is a number #1 goalie with his 20-20-3 and a .914 SV% on a team that finished 29th. This was his first year of playing more games than that other guy. Dubnyk is the prototypical goalie I expect him to have a similar break out as Mike Smith did in Phoenix. Last year he played in front of a thin blue line with key injuries to veterans which made the defense suspect for a large portion of the year. When the defense was healthy at the beginning of the season they did not look so bad and Khabibulan was the one playing during that short stretch. I honestly think he will have 35 wins this year which is a combination of a large increase of games played and an increase in save percentage partially due to the team defense improving. I think .920 is an attainable number, and hopefully he stays healthy and plays at least 60 games. I think the contract will look pretty good in April when the Oilers are in the playoffs.

  132. jp says:

    DD deal does sound like at least a bit of an overpay to me too. Sure, ~3.5M is expected for a starter, but he’s not proven himself yet. Looks like he could be that guy, but definitely not a sure thing yet.

    gogliano:

    And if we want a silver lining in the DD deal it’s that DD is now clearly breaking camp as the #1.

    I was thinking this too. If paying DD like a starter means they give him 60 GP and sit NK whenever possible, it’s a good deal in my books.

    anonymous:
    Maybe the strategy is to overpay the homegrown talent young so that when
    it comes to the big one they sign a fair deal. If it works great but if it doesn’t
    all is lost.

    Wondered about this too. DD seems like the kind of guy who might take a discount to keep the team together. Don’t actually know him of course.

    Side by side the DD and Petry deals do seem a bit odd though. Petry was only a top pairing D for 1/3 of a season, but it still feels like a steal. Gotta wonder if he might have been a little pissed with the deal he signed after seeing what they gave DD… They’re at pretty similar places in their careers.

  133. BONVIE says:

    DSF,

    DUBYK plays in the WHL

  134. SteadyEd says:

    Good for DD and good for the Oilers.
    Stats are stats. As a fan, when he’s in net, I feel that the team has at least an even chance to win.

    There is room on the ledger- lets pump his tires and roll with the big guy.

  135. Ducey says:

    FastOil: Crawford’s contract would be an argument for why an unproven goalie shouldn’t be paid like this, wouldn’t it?

    Schneider has been better and has playoff games on his resume. 2.5M would have been fair and lots. Other team’s bad contracts don’t set the market, they make lottery winners out of lucky players. The only team that would have signed this deal IMO is the Oilers, and that’s the problem, again.

    Not really. Crawford’s contract bought out his last three years of RFA. DD’s equivalent will be $800K, $3.5 M, $3.5M. Its the going rate.

    How would the Oilers not pay the going rate?

    How would the Oilers pay $2.5 M to DD when Crawford is getting $2.66 M?

    You guys can just pull numbers out of you ass, the Oilers can’t. There are not really any comparables for guys making a lot less than $3.5 M unless they are retreads like Mike Smith.

  136. Wolfie says:

    Part of the reason why I’m not completely in love with stats is that they can be taken out of context and spun anyway you want.

    There is no context when you say Schneider had a .930 sv% in the AHL…. who the fuck cares!

    All by itself it looks impressive, when you consider that the team he played for went to the conference final…. maybe the team had an effect.

    Dubnyk put up a .915 with a shitty hockey club who couldn’t fight their way out of a wet paper bag.

    It really gets tiresome. The numbers themselves without context have next to no value.

    I’m not suggesting Schneider isn’t a good goalie or that Dubnyk is a great goalie. Neither have proven much of anything at the NHL level yet.

    I think Vancouver is playing a very dangerous game with their goaltending. They have a proven top of the line starter in Luongo and are going to send him packing. They weren’t going to beat LA this year and they should have stuck with Luongo. They could have gotten the moon for Schneider. Instead they’ll get leftovers for Lu.

    In regards to the Dubnyk contract. At first I thought it was a touch rich. With the evidence presented it probably is right in line. The thing I like about this contract is the message it sends to DD. You’re the man big guy! Take the ball and run.

  137. DSF says:

    BONVIE:
    DSF,

    DUBYK plays in the WHL

    So does my spellcheck.

  138. WeridAl says:

    Lowetide:
    If these contracts are based on a 70M cap and the actual cap is reduced in the new CBA, will these contracts be rolled back by percentage?

    LT if the revenue sharing drops to 50% like in the NFL and NBA and the players will take about a 10%+ salary cut and the salary cap would drop accordingly. The union is already jockeying around to prevent a lockout, but I’ll bet you if there is no agreement before TC, the owners will lock them out. This time around it’s the teams in the states are losing money and it’s not just pennies.

    Right now I have no problem with Dubnyk’s contract, if he preforms well he’ll be worth every penny. Also giving him this contract would install confidence in Dubnyk, because it tells him management believes in him and backs him. If he’s a bust, then tar and feather ST. It also tells FA that Edmonton pays its players well. If Dubie is a bust, hopefully Bunz is ready in a couple of years to step in.

  139. DSF says:

    WeridAl: LT if the revenue sharing drops to 50% like in the NFL and NBA andthe players will take about a 10%+ salary cut and the salary cap would drop accordingly. The union is already jockeying around to prevent a lockout, but I’ll bet you if there is no agreement before TC, the owners will lock them out. This time around it’s the teams in the states are losing money and it’s not just pennies.

    Right now I have no problem with Dubnyk’s contract, if he preforms well he’ll be worth every penny. Also giving him this contract would install confidence in Dubnyk, because it tells him management believes in him and backs him. If he’s a bust, then tar and feather ST. It also tells FA that Edmonton pays its players well. If Dubie is a bust, hopefully Bunz is ready in a couple of years to step in.

    Two years from now will be too late.

  140. Ducey says:

    No, I live on the west coast.

    Hmm… so the vampire theory doesn’t really apply… ah, I’ve got it… you are on a day pass and locked up at night with your computer?

    I mean really, I don’t take you that seriously, but an honest question: Why do you feel the need to come around Oiler’s boards and slag everything the Oilers do (or don’t do)?

    Trying to upset people is kind of a weird hobby don’t you think?

  141. WeridAl says:

    DSF,

    It’s not like the Oilers will make the playoffs this year, and Danis looked good with the AHL Barons, he’ll do in a pinch. If Dubnyk wins 30-35 games this year, I’ll be happy.

  142. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Boy, you guys sure get fired up when somebody else spends Daryl Katz’s money.

    re: our “untested” goalie who has somehow managed to play 101 NHL games behind this sad sack club the past 2.5 years, he finally was given the keys as the starter on January 23, 2012, when Renney rolled him out for the first of 6 consecutive starts. Before then he had started 17 of 47 games (36%) with occasional duty in a mop-up role, and from there to the end of the season he started 25 of 35 (71%). So how did he do in that stretch as Oilers’ starting goalie?

    25 GP, 14-8-3 (.620), 2.33 GAA, .926 Sv%.

    On THAT team, behind THAT defence.

    This is Dubnyk’s fourth professional contract. In his first six years as a pro the former first round draft pick has imrpoved every single year, and has gradually worked his way up the depth chart:

    Year 1: ECHL starter
    Year 2: AHL backup
    Year 3: AHL starter
    Year 4: AHL starter cum NHL backup
    Year 5: NHL backup
    Year 6: NHL backup cum starter

    Measurable progress, year after year. Nothing that quite suggests a 337% raise, but the world of hockey contracts is a crazy one at the best of times. I’ve seen enough to be comfortable with DD as Oilers #1 goalie next year, and I sure as shit have no problem with a budget that pays the starting netminder 1/20 of the salary cap.

  143. RENNAVATE says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Boy, you guys sure get fired up when somebody else spends Daryl Katz’s money.

    re: our “untested” goalie who has somehow managed to play 101 NHL games behind this sad sack club the past 2.5 years, he finally was given the keys as the starter on January 23, 2012, when Renney rolled him out for the first of 6 consecutive starts. Before then he had started 17 of 47 games (36%) with occasional duty in a mop-up role, and from there to the end of the season he started 25 of 35 (71%). So how did he do in that stretch as Oilers’ starting goalie?

    25 GP, 14-8-3 (.620), 2.33 GAA, .926 Sv%.

    On THAT team, behind THAT defence.

    This is Dubnyk’s fourth professional contract. In his first six years as a pro the former first round draft pick has imrpoved every single year, and has gradually worked his way up the depth chart:

    Year 1: ECHL starter
    Year 2: AHL backup
    Year 3: AHL starter
    Year 4: AHL starter cum NHL backup
    Year 5: NHL backup
    Year 6: NHL backup cum starter

    Measurable progress, year after year. Nothing that quite suggests a 337% raise, but the world of hockey contracts is a crazy one at the best of times. I’ve seen enough to be comfortable with DD as Oilers #1 goalie next year, and I sure as shit have no problem with a budget that pays the starting netminder 1/20 of the salary cap.

    Yeah, the fellows on Oilers Nation are all freaking out over this Dubynk contract, but Bruce, those are good points. I think it’s a fine, average contract.

  144. Kris11 says:

    Qual team doesn’t effect EV SV or SV much at all.

  145. PDO says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Boy, you guys sure get fired up when somebody else spends Daryl Katz’s money.

    re: our “untested” goalie who has somehow managed to play 101 NHL games behind this sad sack club the past 2.5 years, he finally was given the keys as the starter on January 23, 2012, when Renney rolled him out for the first of 6 consecutive starts. Before then he had started 17 of 47 games (36%) with occasional duty in a mop-up role, and from there to the end of the season he started 25 of 35 (71%). So how did he do in that stretch as Oilers’ starting goalie?

    25 GP, 14-8-3 (.620), 2.33 GAA, .926 Sv%.

    On THAT team, behind THAT defence.

    This is Dubnyk’s fourth professional contract. In his first six years as a pro the former first round draft pick has imrpoved every single year, and has gradually worked his way up the depth chart:

    Year 1: ECHL starter
    Year 2: AHL backup
    Year 3: AHL starter
    Year 4: AHL starter cum NHL backup
    Year 5: NHL backup
    Year 6: NHL backup cum starter

    Measurable progress, year after year. Nothing that quite suggests a 337% raise, but the world of hockey contracts is a crazy one at the best of times. I’ve seen enough to be comfortable with DD as Oilers #1 goalie next year, and I sure as shit have no problem with a budget that pays the starting netminder 1/20 of the salary cap.

    I don’t know if cum means what I think it means.

    It’s an overpay, but it’s not an awful pact either. It’s very short, and it’s for a guy who does have some legitimate upside.

    My biggest worry with this contract is if DD improves; the Oiler’s are probably offering him mega bucks in 2 years based of of this… and I don’t like that in any teams pay structure for any goalie.

    As for Gagner… I’m hoping they sign him to a long-term deal. Regardless of if he’s in the future or not, this deal will take him to UFA in all likelihood… and pending UFA’s aren’t worth anything in deals.

    $16,000,000/4, or better yet, $20,000,000/5 would be ideal. Bigger pact, but a very moveable one in a $70,000,000 cap for a 23 year old 50 point C who has a bit of gumption in his game and has shown a ton of upside. He’s right at the age where he should start to “get it.” I’ll be very disappointed if he’s signed to a 1-2 year deal.

  146. Bob Arctor says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    In the stretch you quoted, the Oilers had already been eliminated . Didn’t you know they’re much easier to win when nothing is on the line. #AntiClutch

  147. Bruce McCurdy says:

    PDO: I don’t know if cum means what I think it means.

    Well it does, but it also means something else. In Latin, so that would be the First definition I should think.

  148. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Bob Arctor:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    In the stretch you quoted, the Oilers had already been eliminated . Didn’t you know they’re much easier to win when nothing is on the line. #AntiClutch

    Playing on a shit team with nothing to play for against teams scratching for playoff berths and position? Yeah, dead easy.

  149. Kris11 says:

    I should say, to be clearer, that Vic Ferrari showed not that the quality of defensemen on front of goalie has no effect, but that the effect is very, very small. There seems to be some consensus on this, now as well.

    Here’s a good link to Vic’s thoughts and some comments from others:

    http://vhockey.blogspot.com/2010/05/forest-v-trees.html

  150. Mesmer says:

    DSF: Two years from now will be too late.

    Too late for what? How is this not a trolling comment?

  151. "Steve Smith" says:

    Mesmer: Too late for what?How is this not a trolling comment?

    How is the moon not a natural satellite orbiting the Earth?

  152. TheOtherJohn says:

    Salary cap management and contract negotiation is a demonstrable skillset. It will be an absolutely crucial skillset when the kids are coming off of their cheap contracts. To apply the appropriate rigor to cap management now would, as a complete nobrainer, seem to be something to strive for. But, again, it’s really really hard to spend $60m on a 30/30/29 team but we seem to find a variety of ways to do that.

    As to spending Daryl Katz money: hope everyone realizes that they are spending the money of the people buying tickets because the payroll is being paid for by the fans. Have no difficulty spending to the cap for a top 6 or 8 team in the league. As a mnager it would be embarrassing to spend near the cap and be 30/30/29

  153. bookje says:

    Ducey:
    No, I live on the west coast.

    Hmm… so the vampire theory doesn’t really apply… ah, I’ve got it… you are on a day pass and locked up at night with your computer?

    I mean really, I don’t take you that seriously, but an honest question: Why do you feel the need to come around Oiler’s boards and slag everything the Oilers do (or don’t do)?

    Trying to upset people is kind of a weird hobby don’t you think?

    I think it’s probably all he’s got. He’s good at it though.

  154. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Cactus,
    Bruce McCurdy,

    Thanks guys.

    You’ve done a good job disabusing me of my distaste for the DD contract. I’m still in the mushy middle (I don’t like it but I don’t hate it), but I feel better about it.

    One day removed, it’s time to start cheering for DD again and hope he has a great season.

  155. Smarmy says:

    The same guys that signed the Petry deal everyone loves did this one too. Both are two years and therefore pretty much irrelevant regarding the cap and the cap is the only thing that riles people up about these deals because nobody should give a shit what the Oilers want to pay anyone until/unless someone good gets lost in the numbers game.

    These two year contracts are not going to hurt the team capwise at all.

  156. dessert1111 says:

    I would like 3.5 more if it were for one year. If the argument is that he is going to be the starting goaltender next year so he should be paid like one, fine–3.5 for one year isn’t bad. But I am not sold that he will still be the starter in 2013-14. I would’ve been more comfortable with something around 2.5 million for 2 years.

    The team can afford it, but I’m a bit worried about the precedent that it sets. Dubnyk got a huge raise and hasn’t had enough of a consistent track record to be banked on to deliver at a high level on a long-term basis. I would argue that Petry has had the same level of consistency if not more consistency than Devan’s play, and I also think that finding a good, young all-purpose defender with up arrows is harder than a goalie of Devan’s calibre.

    What message are you sending to the players due for new contracts when your goalies make that much? What message are you sending to Petry–you’re not confident in him? How much can Eberle and Hall ask for next year?

    It seems like they are trying to reevaluate the situation in two years, which is fine, but I just wish they gave an indication that they thought Petry was a better bet to be part of their future than Dubnyk is, and I think they sent the opposite message.

  157. Woodguy says:

    Cactus,

    Here are the goalies we get from that:
    Lehtonen, DAL, 3 years at $3.55M – 10 GS, 2.81 GAA, .911 SV%, .921 EV%
    Halak, STL, 4 years at $3.75M – 43GS, 2.40 GAA, .924 SV%, .933 EV%
    Pavelec, WPG, 5 years at $3.9M – 67GS, 2.91 GAA, .906 SV%, .917 EV%
    Schneider, VAN, 3 years at $4M – 28GS, 1.96 GAA, .937 SV%, .931 EV%
    Crawford, CHI, 3 years at $2.67M – 55GS, 2.30 GAA, .917 SV%, .924 EV%

    Good post.

    Pavelec really blows the curve here. Freaking Winnipeg.

    Traktor,

    AHL/NHL playoff games

    Schneider 42
    Rask 39
    Dubnyk 0

    Average playoff games per NHL season:

    Wayne Merrick 9.27
    Pat Hughes 7.9
    Marcel Dionne 2.56

    Merrick and Hughes obv superior to Dionne.

    Attributing team metrics likes wins, cups, etc to one player is always fallacious.

    KRIS11 has it right.

    The only number you can really pin on the goalie is SV%

    You can’t pin wins, you can’t even pin GAA as the number of shots is out of his control.

    Goalies can control the first save and how they give out rebounds.

  158. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy:
    Cactus,

    Here are the goalies we get from that:
    Lehtonen, DAL, 3 years at $3.55M – 10 GS, 2.81 GAA, .911 SV%, .921 EV%
    Halak, STL, 4 years at $3.75M – 43GS, 2.40 GAA, .924 SV%, .933 EV%
    Pavelec, WPG, 5 years at $3.9M – 67GS, 2.91 GAA, .906 SV%, .917 EV%
    Schneider, VAN, 3 years at $4M – 28GS, 1.96 GAA, .937 SV%, .931 EV%
    Crawford, CHI, 3 years at $2.67M – 55GS, 2.30 GAA, .917 SV%, .924 EV%

    Good post.

    Pavelec really blows the curve here.Freaking Winnipeg.

    Traktor,


    AHL/NHL playoff games

    Schneider 42
    Rask 39
    Dubnyk 0

    Average playoff games per NHL season:

    Wayne Merrick 9.27
    Pat Hughes 7.9
    Marcel Dionne 2.56

    Merrick and Hughes obv superior to Dionne.

    Attributing team metrics likes wins, cups, etc to one player is always fallacious.

    KRIS11 has it right.

    The only number you can really pin on the goalie is SV%

    You can’t pin wins, you can’t even pin GAA as the number of shots is out of his control.

    Goalies can control the first save and how they give out rebounds.

    I have an overwhelming urge to use a morning pop radio station voice and obnoxiously say:

    “And here’s our Hot Comment of the day, coming to us from Woodguy…”

    as I continue nattering well into the beginning of your post.

  159. Traktor says:

    I never said Dubnyk is the reason his team never made the playoffs in the AHL/NHL but that doesn’t change the fact that he has zero experience in that area.

    Edmonton’s last line of defense is someone that hasn’t proved anything, in any league.

  160. Cactus says:

    Ducey: Not really.Crawford’s contract bought out his last three years of RFA.DD’s equivalent will be $800K, $3.5 M, $3.5M.Its the going rate.

    How would the Oilers not pay the going rate?

    How would the Oilers pay $2.5 M to DD when Crawford is getting $2.66 M?

    You guys can just pull numbers out of you ass, the Oilers can’t.There are not really any comparables for guys making a lot less than $3.5 M unless they are retreads like Mike Smith.

    Ducey’s last comment is bang on. There are a few critics here pulling numbers out of thin air and calling them “fair value”. Some people would pay even less than the Crawford salary of $2.6M which is already a year old and thus a bit out of date. That just screams ignorance to me. A couple other thoughts:

    TheOtherJohn,

    You’re making a very common mistake among Oilers fans. You’re arguing that because Edmonton has been terrible these last few years, any action that’s not a dramatic turn from the status quo must be deemed to be terrible as well. That’s nonsense. Just because the Oilers have made mistakes with other contracts (notably Khabibulin in this case) doesn’t mean you need to, or even CAN, fix these mistakes with the Dubnyk contract. The screwup with Khabby or Horcoff has no bearing on DD’s value.

    DSF: Dubyk is getting paid at least twice what he is worth…no matter what the cap says.

    I’m probably wasting my time arguing with a concrete wall like yourself, but since at least a couple of lost souls agreed with you, I thought I’d take one last shot.

    Go back to my earlier post and take a look at the comparables again. Don’t just cherry pick one, look at all five. I think you’ll see there that, on average, goalies in DD’s situation get in the range of $3.5M per season without having been the clear starter the year before. Dubnyk may not have proven anything, but the market clearly dictates that he’s worth $3M+. Unless you have another equally comparable group of goalies, you need to concede that you’re wrong for once.*

    *Note: I harbour no illusions that, in the face of logic or facts, he’ll ever see the light.

  161. Woodguy says:

    Traktor:
    I never said Dubnyk is the reason his team never made the playoffs in the AHL/NHL but that doesn’t change the fact that he has zero experience in that area.

    Edmonton’s last line of defense is someone that hasn’t proved anything, in any league.

    The only thing he has proven is he is close to an average goalie in the NHL.

    He’s being paid slightly more than average (I think)

  162. markasread1199 says:

    This has nothing to do with anything but with DD’s raise maybe a new mask is in order?

    Always thought Markkanen’s mask was nice.

    Sorry to interrupt the flow. That is all. Run along.

  163. Bruce McCurdy says:

    dessert1111: I would like 3.5 more if it were for one year. If the argument is that he is going to be the starting goaltender next year so he should be paid like one, fine–3.5 for one year isn’t bad. But I am not sold that he will still be the starter in 2013-14. I would’ve been more comfortable with something around 2.5 million for 2 years.

    The second year was a UFA year and undoubtedly drove UP the average cap hit of the deal. I would have hated this deal for one year, in some ways would have preferred a third.

  164. Cactus says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Thanks for the Dubnyk stats breakdown. IIt seems that the arrows are all good here and a third year probably wouldn’t have been amiss.

  165. tubes says:

    Glad to see LT come around and see DD’s raise as not completely ridiculous as it sounds. It does sound insane, but sadly, is in line with other comparables.

    Is Petry not being underpaid by about $1M/season? Top 4 dman making $1.75/year? Wow. Great contract.

  166. TheOtherJohn says:

    Cactus

    I have no clue what you are talking about mistakes in the past. The Oilers last year were 29th and had a salary cap of $60.5m. The year before they were 30th and had a payroll of $46m with all of Souray, , Zorg and JDD parked in the minors at $7.1m . Not sure what value contracts the Oilers have on their roster. So if you overpay 5-8 guys that, cumulatively, becomes real money. It also shows either a lack of salary cap management acumen , laziness or stupidity. As to Dubnyk, we are paying him as a well established young #1. When guys here refer to a strong half season to say he’s shown himself capable of being a #1 ….. Maybe, or maybe he had a good 1/2 season. Both Potter and Smyth had good half seasons. I hope he develops into a #1 because if not we have a very very expensive backup

  167. Bruce McCurdy says:

    TheOtherJohn: As to spending Daryl Katz money: hope everyone realizes that they are spending the money of the people buying tickets because the payroll is being paid for by the fans.

    That’s fair comment, TOJ. It’s not MY money so my comment was perhaps cavalier. As one whose sympathies lie firstly with the fans, especially those who are forking out the big bucks, perhaps I should have phrased that introductory comment a little differently.

  168. Bruce McCurdy says:

    TheOtherJohn: When guys here refer to a strong half season to say he’s shown himself capable of being a #1 ….. Maybe, or maybe he had a good 1/2 season.

    Well, there’s also 2010-11 when DD played 35 games and set a franchise record for Sv%. He also posted a 12-13-8 record while the highly-paid starter was 10-32-4 on a DFL team. So that was promising … then this past season once he finally got a true shot at the #1 role he made the most of it.

    So when you want to talk about value contracts, the one DD signed last time certainly qualifies. As does the one Petry just signed. In both cases the club held the hammer — emerging but not-yet-proven player with restricted options — so the guy had to take lower money and seize that opportunity to really prove himself. Dubnyk is two years ahead of Petry on the career curve, is all, now we’re dealing with UFA years and “market value” becomes part of the conversation.

    And never forget, the market is fucking crazy.

  169. hags9k says:

    Not sure I understand what all the fuss is about. Are we going to be spending to within 1 or 2 million of the cap in the next 2 seasons? Don’t think so.

    They are overpaying him based on performance so far yes but they also need to find out if he’s the guy, and have to pay him a starter’s salary in the mean time. This is a 2 year audition for the role of Fuhr in TBOTB 2.0. It was a little more cash for a little less term to audition in.

    To listen to some here, you would get the idea that it is easy to be a starting goaltender in the NHL. It’s only 2 years people. And NK is off the books next year. If Batman doesn’t mind the contract then I sure don’t.

    The Gagner contract is the important one. Extremely important…

  170. Cactus says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    I would invite you to go back and look at the 5 comps that I put forward. Out of them, only 1 guy was a truly established number 1 goalie (Pavelec). He also had possibly the worst numbers of the group and got the longest term at close to the most money ($3.9M).

    The point I was trying to make is that young goalies going into their UFA years get this kind of money even if they’re not already playing 60 games a season. If you have a great plan of how we could have locked Dubnyk up for significantly less than market value, I know I’d love to hear it – but you could probably sell it to Tambo for some real money.

  171. TheOtherJohn says:

    Bruce

    Didn’t think for a second you were being cavalier …… at all. Agree we signed Petry to a real good albeit too short contract. Last year Dubnyk was a value contract. Earlier? Not so sure. Cap management is gonna be crucial and management does not seem to realize that is a priority. Or maybe they believe they can become disciplined when it matters. I can say if I was Hall and Eberle’s agent I would less inclined to sign a value contracts(aka home town discounts) when everyone else is getting paid top dollars for their projected performance

    Cactus when I get a chance I will look at your comparables. Dubnyk contract means he HAS to be a good #1 because if not we are paying him $2 m/yr too much

  172. "Steve Smith" says:

    hags9k:
    Not sure I understand what all the fuss is about.Are we going to be spending to within 1 or 2 million of the cap in the next 2 seasons?Don’t think so.

    I’m not sure how we retain Hall and Eberle (to say nothing of Smid) without doing so.

  173. jfry says:

    wow…this thread got weird.

    DSF, your opinions would have more value if you didn’t compare the nucks to the oil constantly. especially with as selective as you are. i love your points normally, but sometimes you come off like a little highschool kid trying to pick a fight. i look forward to you and schneider eating some pie this upcoming season. you both will miss luongo. schneider is the highest paid least proven goalie signing an over priced contract this of season. sure he did good in the ahl — who fuckin’ cares; peter sarno was amazing in the ahl. fuck off and start to frame your arguments with some tact that makes me want to read them.

    ricki, there’s significant data out there that suggest SV percentage is not what you think it is. i know you keep harping on vic ferrari, but he’s the one of the only sources with this point of view. many thesis on the topic show the opposite of your comment. the easiest way to look at this is by performance by teammates. how do you argue rekhab’s numbers vs.dd’s numbers using your point of view? if it can’t be a team effect, what is it? the player? believing that goalie’s have a fixed threshold that’s independent of ability is a bit of a weird thesis.

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