OILERS SIGN MUSIL

The Edmonton Oilers signed David Musil on June 30th, I haven’t had a chance to touch on it until today. Musil is a “safe” pick, a defender who is very likely to play in the NHL.

I think this is a great photo, mostly because Musil is kind of Johnny Canuck. A big strapping defender, strong as an ox with a bit of a mean streak.We have a good comp for Musil on the Edmonton Oilers and I think it’s best reflected in Redline Report’s pre-draft profile on each player:

  • RLR on Musil: David has excellent size and strength and plays a rugged brand of hockey with a bit of a mean streak. He reads developing plays well and uses anticipation to break up plays before they become dangerous. He’s got good hockey sense in all three zones, but his offensive upside is limited due to his mediocre point shot.
  • RLR on his comp:Maintains great gap control and always squares up to the puckhandler. Has good poise, plays solid, mistake-free game in own zone and is excellent positionally. Reads and anticipates developing plays well. Good laterally, but 1st step and straightaway speed are average. Is not good as either a PP quarterback or trigger-man— has weak shot and makes poor decisions in puck distribution.

The comp? Smid.

Musil scores well as a “good bet” and I do think he has the tools to contribute to winning games. I don’t think he’s a “complete” defender in that the offense isn’t going to reach levels where he’ll be a PP option in pro hockey.

I ranked Musil #10 on my winter top 20 and #12 on the summer edition because I don’t think he’ll have a complete player’s skills (lacks the offensive dimension). I also think foot speed shows up enough in the discussion that we should make note of it. However, the major reason he’s outside the prospect top 10 is that players with a wider range of skills (which this blog holds in high regard) are placed ahead of him.

I think he’s a terrific prospect and a good bet to have an NHL career.

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  1. Clay says:

    I hope the org takes their sweet time with him and allows him to come along at the pace Smid should have been allowed to develop at.

    The luxury now being that there’s enough depth at the position that he won’t need to be thrown to the wolves.

  2. jonrmcleod says:

    LT: Not to spoil Musil’s moment, but did you read Martin Lunden’s post that the Oilers are promising Klefbom NHL ice-time if he decides to leave Sweden? Would playing two rookies on defence be a mistake?

    http://dohfos.tumblr.com/post/26485386072/klefbom-might-be-coming-over

    In Tambellini’s interview with Stauffer yesterday, he seemed to open the door for the possibility of Klefbom not playing in Sweden this upcoming season.

  3. Lowetide says:

    Clay: Agreed. Musil should complete his junior career and start in the AHL. With Smid, Schultz and Sutton holding fort there doesn’t seem to be an immediate need.

  4. Lowetide says:

    jonrmcleod:
    LT: Not to spoil Musil’s moment, but did you read Martin Lunden’s post that the Oilers are promising Klefbom NHL ice-time if he decides to leave Sweden? Would playing two rookies on defence be a mistake?

    http://dohfos.tumblr.com/post/26485386072/klefbom-might-be-coming-over

    In Tambellini’s interview with Stauffer yesterday, he seemed to open the door for the possibility of Klefbom not playing in Sweden this upcoming season.

    jonR: Yeah, I wrote an article on it over at Oilers Nation. I trust Martin, although there’s another article up suggesting he is likely to stay.
    http://www.hockeysverige.se/article/13288665/blir-nog-spel-i-farjestad-trots-allt

  5. Woodguy says:

    I like Musil. If he can be a Smid/Jason Smith type, then he will be very useful.

    They can’t rush him or LT will try to trade him every year.

    Interesting on Klefbom.

    If he stays, then they aren’t making a 3-1 for a defender (maybe)

  6. jonrmcleod says:

    Lowetide,

    Just saw that you addressed the issue over at Oilers Nation. Sorry. The quote from ST was “if he does go over” to Sweden he needs to get lots of minutes. He also said that if Klefbom does come over here, he would probably spend time in both Edmonton and OKC.

  7. Lowetide says:

    jonrmcleod: .

    Thanks, Jon. I feel better about that idea, let him get his feet wet in OKC where you can monitor his minutes. Suspect it makes him agreeing to it less likely though

  8. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    I like Musil.If he can be a Smid/Jason Smith type, then he will be very useful.

    They can’t rush him or LT will try to trade him every year.

    Interesting on Klefbom.

    If he stays, then they aren’t making a 3-1 for a defender (maybe)

    lol. Damn straight! The Montreal Canadiens drafted Larry Robinson in 1971. He played 112 AHL games before arriving in the NHL. LARRY FUCKING ROBINSON!

  9. Woodguy says:

    Speaking of defenders, I was looking at all the top 100 NHL Dmen in terms of shots% when the game is tied or either team is up by 1 5v5 (most important game state)

    I then went to BTN to check which level of comp they were playing (1st pairing, 2nd, 3rd)

    Having cross referenced BTN CorQC numbers to VIc’s TOI tool, I feel pretty comfortable that CorQC is accurate enough for this exercise. I wouldn’t use straight QC though.

    There were 30 1st pairing Dmen, 30 2nd pairing Dmen, and 40 3rd pairing Dmen who made the top 100.

    The first and second pairing Dmen are below, and I would target one of them in the 3 for 1.

    Note: STL, VAN, LAK, DET, BOS Dmen show up a lot here, because those teams are dominate at 5v5 score close or tied. Some listed here may be due to more team effects than actual play, but maybe they contribute too?

    Note: Singular players on bad teams (like Streit on NYI, Tyutin in CBJ) should be particularly attractive as they really out performed their team.

    Note: These results are why some of us wanted Penner traded for Voynov straight up. Great young player.

    I

    CHARA, ZDENO 0.58 1st
    DOUGHTY, DREW 0.573 1st
    BOYCHUK, JOHNNY 0.573 1st
    TIMONEN, KIMMO 0.564 2nd
    ENSTROM, TOBIAS 0.562 1st
    PIETRANGELO, ALEX 0.569 1st
    VOYNOV, SLAVA 0.567 2nd
    BYFUGLIEN, DUSTIN 0.556 2nd
    LETANG, KRIS 0.566 1st
    COLAIACOVO, CARLO 0.564 1st
    MARTIN, PAUL 0.557 2nd
    MITCHELL, WILLIE 0.557 2nd
    LIDSTROM, NICKLAS 0.554 1st
    BIEKSA, KEVIN 0.55 1st
    HAMHUIS, DAN 0.548 1st
    KARLSSON, ERIK 0.537 1st
    LEDDY, NICK 0.544 2nd
    KRONWALL, NIKLAS 0.538 2nd
    SEABROOK, BRENT 0.541 1st
    GARRISON, JASON 0.527 1st
    CAMPBELL, BRIAN 0.524 1st
    ORPIK, BROOKS 0.538 1st
    ROBIDAS, STEPHANE 0.523 1st
    QUINCEY, KYLE 0.527 1st (mostly COL)
    JACKMAN, BARRET 0.534 2nd
    O_BRIEN, SHANE 0.521 2nd
    RUSSELL, KRIS 0.523 2nd
    FOWLER, CAM 0.515 2nd
    BURNS, BRENT 0.514 2nd
    KUBA, FILIP 0.517 1st
    VLASIC, MARC-EDOUARD 0.519 2nd
    SEIDENBERG, DENNIS 0.523 2nd
    SALO, SAMI 0.52 2nd
    MICHALEK, ZBYNEK 0.528 2nd
    SCUDERI, ROB 0.531 1st
    KEITH, DUNCAN 0.526 1st
    FAYNE, MARK 0.51 1st
    COBURN, BRAYDON 0.519 1st
    STREIT, MARK 0.502 1st
    JOHNSON, ERIK 0.51 2nd
    TYUTIN, FEDOR 0.503 2nd
    AUCOIN, ADRIAN 0.509 2nd
    EKMAN-LARSSON, OLIVER 0.506 1st
    NIKITIN, NIKITA 0.503 1st
    VISNOVSKY, LUBOMIR 0.5 2nd
    BOYLE, DAN 0.51 1st
    BEAUCHEMIN, FRANCOIS 0.505 1st
    SOURAY, SHELDON 0.506 1st
    ZANON, GREG 0.489 2nd
    STUART, BRAD 0.515 2nd
    SUBBAN, P.K. 0.495 1st
    LEOPOLD, JORDAN 0.495 2nd
    MCBAIN, JAMIE 0.492 2nd
    BOGOSIAN, ZACH 0.499 2nd
    WEBER, SHEA 0.492 1st
    EDLER, ALEXANDER 0.511 2nd
    ALLEN, BRYAN 0.493 1st
    SALVADOR, BRYCE 0.496 2nd

    Note: Shea Weber isn’t the end all be all via this metric and Suter posted a .472 and didn’t make the top 100. NAS was really outshot during this game state last year.

  10. Woodguy says:

    I’m not saying Weber and Suter are bad Dmen.

    I am saying that during game stat of 5v5 with the scored tied or within 1, they were outshot.

    Could be coaching (rope a dope teams get outshot greatly)

    Could be poor F contributing to it.

    Could be that they are over rated.

    Could be a combination of all of them plus some stuff I’m missing.

    I’m not saying I’d rather have any Dmen on this list rather than Weber or Suter.

    What I am saying is that these DMen were the best by the metric I stated, which is a pretty key metric IMO.

  11. Lowetide says:

    Voynov. Man.

  12. Woodguy says:

    Oh, and I posted all that as more or less a list of who to target for the Oilers 1st pairing Dman.

    Its not an end all be all, but its a good list to start with, especially the 1st pairing guys.

  13. Bos8 says:

    Cactus: Vanilla is a flavour of ice cream. It is not an argument. Please try again.Also, size up the middle is not a necessity for success. Here’s your homework:http://oilersnation.com/2012/4/20/size-up-the-middle-can-nugent-hopkins-gagner-co-existYou’re welcome to make a contrary argument – I know Jonathan is always eager for good debate. But if you do, bring the data. Vanilla is not a counter-point.

    Data – hmm
    I really don’t care about size, I care about skill set. Crosby and Gagner are roughly the same size. Peca was a little guy and so on.

    When you have a so called #2 center with a skill set of average or below – Huston we have a problem.

    The Oilers have a bunch of “One way Jose” types and yes, it’s not a hockey term either.

    Smyth and Horcoff can’t get there from here, etc. Who supports the D.

    I would like to see an upgrade in one spot. Yes, Schultz will be an upgrade, down the road. Can they at least upgrade from Jones?

    Re Post

  14. Quidge says:

    Is it bad that I already can’t wait for this season to start? I am thinking the Oilers won’t be out of it until much later in the hockey year…like I think they will be in it until March…huge improvement.

  15. sliderule says:

    By my eye Musil at development camp looked like he was much quicker than at WJC .

    It’s a shame the oilers don’t release the results from all the speed testing they did at camp.

  16. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Only saw Musil at World Jrs, but don’t think he will have near the foot speed or puck handling of a Smid. He’s Jason Smith in his later years. Great PK and shot blocking, but don’t expect him to get the puck out of the defensive end during 5 vs 5 with regularity.

  17. tcho says:

    It seems to me that the current management group is getting a lot of credit for, at present, preparing to ice the exact same team that finished 29th last year. They have added only a highly touted, but as yet completely unproven, dman (Schultz jr.).

    It also seems to me that most of the hope for this team resides in the continued development of the young-ish cluster. I would be interested – has anyone ever done a study on the average rate of progression of young hockey players by age or by years of experience? What is an average progression of points/toi for a forward going into their 3rd NHL season, for example?

  18. Henry says:

    Woodguy,

    Thanks for the chart. The numbers like coliacovo there, but there may be a partner effect. He is ufa and relatively cheap though. I prefer a trade for Vlasic. Sj needs prospects and spent too much on defense.

  19. Bos8 says:

    Petry, Schultz, Marincin, Gernat are all lean lanky types. A Musil is a God send and or smart drafting.

  20. Captain Obvious says:

    Woodguy,

    That’s good stuff. Incidentally, by memory Suter and Weber didn’t look so great when I ran my own numbers as well. The problem is that they play with each other and how do you account for quality of teammates. Using QT, makes them look mediocre because their teammates had good +/-, while using QcorsiT makes them look excellent because Nashville was a dreadful Corsi team.

    The problem remains that it is difficult to impossible to separate the individual contributions to teams. Relcorsi does a good job of comparing a player to his team but it doesn’t equalize between teams. I think we can identify with some confidence the best players on a particular team but we aren’t nearly as good at comparing players between teams.

    To me the place to look for bargains is for good players on bad teams which more and more screams Tyutin.

    Also the idea of trading for a signed Weber is a horrible idea. FA contracts are already subject to the winner’s curse. Add on the price in talent and a trade for Weber would destroy the dynasty before it even starts.

    It’s cheaper to keep your own talent than it is to sign someone else’s talent. Avoid high priced FA’s and keep your space for your own guys, bargains on the low end, and use the space to trade for salary dumps that are nonetheless comparably value contracts (like Tyutin) or are short term (like Bouwmeester).

  21. bookje says:

    tcho,

    I agree that the swing from ‘fairly critical’ to ‘satisfied’ or even ‘impressed’ by many fans has been a bit surprising. I suspect that most of it is related to the fact that Schultz CHOSE to come to Edmonton. He would not have done so without the agreement of at least a few well informed advisers (such as his agent). So, in essence the big change is that someone in the hockey world has given credence to the notion that the Oilers are a team on the rise with a positive future.

    I also think that the hiring of Krueger has been seen as a positive as Krueger has sold himself well to the public (and to Schultz apparently).

    I have gone from “Satisfied with the approach of management with a fear that they are actually incompetent and will totally mess this up” to “Satisfied with the approach of management with a somewhat reduced fear that they are actually incompetent and will totally mess this up”. That seems justifiable to me.

  22. Woodguy says:

    Henry:
    Woodguy,

    Thanks for the chart. The numbers like coliacovo there, but there may be a partner effect.He is ufa and relatively cheap though.I prefer a trade for Vlasic. Sj needs prospects and spent too much on defense.

    Agreed that partner/forward line effects are in play here.

    That’s where actual scouting can help fill in the missing info.

    Also,

    DET and STL were two of the best teams at the game state and NAS is in the same division, maybe that’s a factor on why Weber and Suter looked meh.

    Coliacivo is intriging for sure.

    His 4 most common linemates in this game state were Pietrangelo, Backes, Oshie, Perron.

    Nice linemates, and Pietrangelo is amazing.

  23. Bos8 says:

    bookje: tcho, I agree that the swing from ‘fairly critical’ to ‘satisfied’ or even ‘impressed’ by many fans has been a bit surprising. I suspect that most of it is related to the fact that Schultz CHOSE to come to Edmonton. He would not have done so without the agreement of at least a few well informed advisers (such as his agent). So, in essence the big change is that someone in the hockey world has given credence to the notion that the Oilers are a team on the rise with a positive future. I also think that the hiring of Krueger has been seen as a positive as Krueger has sold himself well to the public (and to Schultz apparently). I have gone from “Satisfied with the approach of management with a fear that they are actually incompetent and will totally mess this up” to “Satisfied with the approach of management with a somewhat reduced fear that they are actually incompetent and will totally mess this up”. That seems justifiable to me.

    Good summation with the caveat that there seems to be no attention to detail as in shoring up the weak spots with less glamourous players.

    Where are the centers to challenge the incumbents? This penchant for drafting RWs ad infinitum is mind boggling. Hemsky could be considered a mentor. Smyth signing is strictly PR backlash preventing. Hordichuk and Eager a head shaker. Saddling Kreuger with Bucky and Smith – puzzling and so on

    My take

    A lot of glitz, little substance.

  24. Rondo says:

    Suter suppose to decide in an 1hr.

    I’d be surprised if he picked Detroit. Imagine living there for 13 yrs.

  25. Rondo says:

    Rondo,

    Whoops cancel that timing, but still would be surprised if he picked Detroit

  26. Henry says:

    Woodguy: Agreed that partner/forward line effects are in play here.

    That’s where actual scouting can help fill in the missing info.

    Also,

    DET and STL were two of the best teams at the game state and NAS is in the same division, maybe that’s a factor on why Weber and Suter looked meh.

    Coliacivo is intriging for sure.

    His 4 most common linemates in this game state were Pietrangelo, Backes, Oshie, Perron.

    Nice linemates, and Pietrangelo is amazing.

    Yeah. You don’t get a lot of shots against if half the other squad is chasing oshie and the other half is holding their liver.

  27. Jesse says:

    Woodguy,

    I’ll save you the trouble of coming up with a name for this:

    “Poise Metric”

    You’re welcome.

  28. bookje says:

    Bos8: Good summation with the caveat that there seems to be no attention to detail as in shoring up the weak spots with less glamourous players.

    Where are the centers to challenge the incumbents?This penchant for drafting RWs ad infinitum is mind boggling.Hemsky could be considered a mentor.Smyth signing is strictly PR backlash preventing.Hordichuk and Eager a head shaker.Saddling Kreuger with Bucky and Smith – puzzling and so on

    My take

    A lot of glitz, little substance.

    I disagree that there is no substance. I think that a lot of the smaller issues have been addressed (as per LT’s list). I think that Schultz and Krueger are some ‘substance’. I also think that the summer is not done. I will judge the team throughout the summer and into the fall to see what moves they have made. With that said, for now I am satisfied with the progress. Your team does’t hit the ice in July, so it doesn’t really matter what holes exist in the lineup on July 4th.

  29. Ducey says:

    Bos8: Good summation with the caveat that there seems to be no attention to detail as in shoring up the weak spots with less glamourous players. Where are the centers to challenge the incumbents? This penchant for drafting RWs ad infinitum is mind boggling. Hemsky could be considered a mentor. Smyth signing is strictly PR backlash preventing. Hordichuk and Eager a head shaker. Saddling Kreuger with Bucky and Smith – puzzling and so onMy takeA lot of glitz, little substance.

    I don’t get the negativity.

    The Oilers were 29th last year but were -27 (212 GF, 239GA). That was an improvement of 50 goals from the year before. The average (so 4/5th place) playoff team was +26 (235 GF, 209 GA). There were two playoff teams in the negative (FLA -24, WAS -8).

    If the Oilers improve by the same amount they did last year, they should be finishing 4th or 5th in the conference. It may be that as you improve it gets harder and harder to improve +/- but if they just get to evens they have a shot.

    They scored 212 goals last year. Can they score an extra 13 goals to get to the production of an average playoff team? I think that Yakupov will likely take care of that himself. An increase in Hemsky’s production will likely offset a decrease by Smyth. There are a lot of guys who you can look at and say their production will go up.

    The goals against need to improve by 30 to get to mid playoff caliber. That might be a reach, but if they can knock 15 GA off they would be 235 GF, 224 GA (+11) and that should put them in solid playoff contention. I am hopful that improved systems from Krueger, less games from Bulin, the end of the Cam Barker experience, the continued development of Petry, a return to some form of health from Whitney, increased depth from adding Justin Schultz, and perhaps more help from the forwards, will result in some improvement.

    In short, the Oilers are within range of making the playoffs with relatively modest improvements (in my example 6%) in both GF and GA.

  30. Henry says:

    Can Musil spend another year in Vancouver or is he in the ahl? How long should a defensive dman train in the a before he gets time in the show? Two years ?

  31. SoxandOil says:

    My prediction for Parise, (maybe Suter too) he seems hell bent on finding the right fit, he seems to want to return to NJD but they are no where near the dollars that other teams (PHI, MIN) put forward. This reminds me of Clif Lee a couple winters ago, Clif just lost in the World Series with Texas and was getting huge offers from Texas and the Yankees (both great options for returning to the fall classic) and after what seemed like a month of contract talks out of absolutely nowhere comes Philly and offers less money and less term and locked up Lee. Very strange considering Lee grew up in Arkansas (iirc).

    What i’m trying to say is money, term, even quality of team may not be the deciding factor. Hometown factor may not even decide it. Parise may pick the team where he won’t have to be the huge superstar go to guy (with all that extra pressure) I think he leaves term on the table and signs with Pittsburgh, if not a very competitive like team where he won’t be the ace. Philly?

  32. Archie says:

    Lowetide:
    Clay: Agreed. Musil should complete his junior career and start in the AHL. With Smid, Schultz and Sutton holding fort there doesn’t seem to be an immediate need.

    The only reason they keep him in the minors would to hold on to his rights for another year. If they want to advance his development they send him to OKC Barons. Musil is ready for the OKC and most likely will play there, the reasoning behind this is that the Oilers can have more control over his development there. Last year Marincin was held back because he need more muscle and from the sounds of things he didn’t do much weight training last summer. Musil doesn’t have that problem, he has the size to compete in the AHL.

  33. nathan says:

    ” Parise may pick the team where he won’t have to be the huge superstar go to guy (with all that extra pressure)”

    SoxandOil,

    Lots of speculation that Suter and Parise sign today. That they might go to the same team Wild or Wings are mentioned followed by Pens and Flyers. Here’s an interview fueling the hopes in Minnesota:

    http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/ryan-suter-zach-parise-minnesota-wild-north-stars-141503386–nhl.html

    UPDATE:
    http://www.startribune.com/sports/wild/161345055.html

  34. Captain Obvious says:

    Ducey,

    The problem is that the goals scored was buoyed by one of the top powerplays in the league. A performance that is boosted by unsustainable percentages. That means they have to improve in order to stay the same. Now I agree that improvement is likely but I don’t think that improvement from the forwards will necessarily show up on the scoreboard.

    This team can’t rely upon improvement from the top of the roster. Last year the team got horrific performances from Whitney, Barker, Peckham, Teubert, and the entire fourth line. Upgrading these positions is what will turn this team into a playoff team. Schultz and Yakupov help but more needs to be done. This team has top end talent but it is depth in actual hockey players (and not truculence–that’s useless) that wins. The difference between the Devils and the Rangers was that Gionta, Carter, and Bernier were better hockey players than Prust and company.

  35. sliderule says:

    I get it that we need a top centers.

    If you assume that the only way is thru the draft Let’s check how the oil may have missed their opportunity .

    2012 we picked Yak instead of the guy who played about six games.

    2011 we picked RNH .

    2010 we picked Hall.the three centers we missed on have played mostly wing in the NHL .

    2009 we picked MPS at no 10.the three good centers were all gone by then.

    2008 we took Eberle .the centers still available at his draft position were Nemisz and Ennis..

    I think they have gone BPA over all these drafts and other than Hall /Seguin there were no centers that they could have taken that were sure things.As Seguin has yet to play any amount of l time at center even he was no sure thing.

    We have drafted our no one center in RNH .if we want to upgrade from Gagner at two we will have to trade him along with one of our young wingers.

  36. justDOit says:

    Dreger retweets that Suter signs with Minnie.

  37. tcho says:

    tsn now reporting that parise and suter both signed in Minnie for 13 years.

  38. LMHF#1 says:

    Suter and Parise.

    And away we go…hang on everyone.

  39. nathan says:

    Minn paper confirms signings:

    http://www.startribune.com/sports/wild/161345055.html

    The final year (?) of the NW just got tough.

  40. Professor Q says:

    I knew Minnesota would try hard to get both. Crazy good set up for the Wild now, especially with so many prospects.

  41. bookje says:

    tcho: Distressingly

    Those are long contracts, I hope for Minni’s sake that they don’t both catch apathy disease or something.

  42. matmik says:

    13 yr deals for both – probably around 7.5-8 per – that’s very restrictive if these players aren’t elite -

  43. Ice Sage says:

    Well, Minnie’s gonna be a lot better this year and that’s no Droopy Senile Fallacy!
    Looks like the market is evening out with less glamorous teams making some high profile signings.
    Can’t wait to see what shakes loose now.

  44. DSF says:

    bookje: Those are long contracts, I hope for Minni’s sake that they don’t both catch apathy disease or something.

    Wondered how long it would take Oiler fans to start dissing Suter and Parise.

  45. matmik says:

    DSF: Wondered how long it would take Oiler fans to start dissing Suter and Parise.

    Parise’s a good player but he’s not elite – let’s see Suter without Webber

  46. nathan says:

    Bohologo,

    Looks like Nostradamus was off by a few years:

    “Wasn’t a fan of Chuck Fletcher, but his team is in a good position right now and in 2-3 years might be challenging for the division”.

    He’ll be a retroactive Fletcher fan now. Oceania was at war with Eurasia: therefore Oceania had always been at war with Eurasia.

  47. nathan says:

    DSF,

    That would make sense if the opinion turned on a dime after being jilted. But it’s not the case that there was any expectation here that either was coming. They are waiting for you at the Wings board.

  48. Ducey says:

    Captain Obvious: Ducey, The problem is that the goals scored was buoyed by one of the top powerplays in the league. A performance that is boosted by unsustainable percentages. That means they have to improve in order to stay the same. Now I agree that improvement is likely but I don’t think that improvement from the forwards will necessarily show up on the scoreboard. This team can’t rely upon improvement from the top of the roster. Last year the team got horrific performances from Whitney, Barker, Peckham, Teubert, and the entire fourth line. Upgrading these positions is what will turn this team into a playoff team. Schultz and Yakupov help but more needs to be done. This team has top end talent but it is depth in actual hockey players (and not truculence–that’s useless) that wins. The difference between the Devils and the Rangers was that Gionta, Carter, and Bernier were better hockey players than Prust and company.

    PP goals scored (PPG) is a product of PP% x PP opportunities (PPO). The Oilers were 19th in PPO.

    They were 6th in PPG with 54. The 12th place team in PPG had 49.

    I don’t think the Oilers will suffer any significant decrease in PPG as their opportunites will likely go up as their younger players learn to draw penalties. In any event, 5 goals either way isn’t worth getting too excited about.

    And the Rangers finished ahead of NJ in the regular season. Again 4th line prodcution doesn’t matter that much. Lots of very good teams get little production from their 4th line.

  49. Woodguy says:

    As NAS and DET decline and MIN, EDM and COL continue to get better, the sadsack NW divison will swap spot with the CEN division.

    And VAN is still loaded and will be for a few years.

    RE-ALIGNMENT PLEASE!!!

  50. fuzzy muppet says:

    That’s how quickly a team can rebuild. And they still have a tonne of good prospects coming.

    you don’t HAVE to suck for a decade. Oiler’s better start winning NOW…

  51. DSF says:

    Mike Modano ‏@9modano

    Can I come back and play in Minnesota too..? #northstars

  52. nathan says:

    Woodguy,

    Calgary may not want to re-build. But they surely will want to re-align.

  53. PaperDesigner says:

    Does this mean we can have Tom Gilbert back now?

  54. Moosemess says:

    The most consistent rumour at the moment has Hemsky in play. That makes sense to me, if the brass see their potential training camp depth chart as follows:

    Hall > Gagner > Eberle (personally, I can’t ignore the chemistry of that Chicago game)
    MPS or Hartikainen> RNH > Yakupov
    Smyth > Horcoff > Eager
    Petrell > Belanger > Jones (Hordichuk)

    VandeVelde?

    Smid > Petry
    N Schultz > J Schultz
    Sutton > Potter (Whitney)

    Klefbom?

    While signing a big name FA or two would certainly fast track the playoff push, I think the key factors are the 2 millstone contracts the Oil are carrying with Whitney and Horcoff.

    I think the club would desperately love to see Klefbom and J Schultz impress mightily in camp, cos if they do, you’ve got the makings of a reasonable defensive depth chart with a lot of hope and prayer involved obviously. If Whitney’s health/mobility improves, there’s possibly enough there for a playoff push. If he’s still a pylon, I don’t think Katz is inclined to eat the contract in the A (ala Souray) and I suspect the preference is to keep him as a pressbox/swingman while you view this as a necessary evil development year for K-Bom and Schultz. The only way I see the Oil signing FA D is if the term is short, or if they see a trade market at the deadline for Sutton or Whitney.

    Horcoff’s contract remains a problem in terms of balancing out the bottom 6, but I suspect the prospect of burying it in the minors is not palatable at all until it’s the difference between the team making the playoffs and being a serious contender for the Cup. As much as I’d like to see VandeVelde get a serious shot this year, I think Belanger’s skills on the dot will keep him in the show. Would be great if they could trade him for someone who can win FOs AND bring an edge.

    Given all of the above, I think the preferred move at this time is to trade a package including Hemsky for an excellent two way center with size. The Oil desperately need a 2C/3C swingman that can move up to the 2nd line to replace either Gagner or RNH when they’re facing bigger competition.

    What I particularly don’t like about the approach above is that is assumes MPS or Harti must play Top 6 minutes and J Schultz Top 4 minutes to make this work, but time and again the Oil have shown this propensity for sink or swim development.

    I suspect Tambi’s plan is to work the phones with cap maxed teams with a surfeit of center depth and a need for a playmaking winger. The question as always is, does Hemsky have any real trade value at this point given the injury history/cap hit? I fear that saying ‘Hemsky is being dangled’ is a little like saying I’ve got a 20 year old RX7 up for grabs. Sure the rotary engine is a nice conversation piece but who really gives an eff?

  55. jonrmcleod says:

    DSF,

    Wondered how long it would take for you to start dissing Oiler fans for dissing Parise and Suter.

  56. fuzzy muppet says:

    Moosemess,

    Just wait on a trade until you know who is going to over-pay Carle, Semin and the remaining guys. Then see if you can shake lose some cap caualty contracts

  57. jonrmcleod says:

    Woodguy,

    If the NHL had an NFL-type playoff scenario, I would be more concerned.

  58. pboy says:

    DSF: Wondered how long it would take Oiler fans to start dissing Suter and Parise.

    Suter is a fantastic hockey player. Easily one of the best defenceman in the league. Any team that picks him up, did very well for themselves. Parise is a very good but not great player. He has had perfect timing here, but this is a definite overpay for him.

    This should get the Nash rumor mill going again.

    Detroit doesn’t have their replacement for Lidstrom and Nashville loses a great player. A little more parity in the Western Conference.

  59. "Steve Smith" says:

    jonrmcleod,

    JonRMcleod disses DSF for dissing Oiler fans for dissing Suter and Parise. Typical.

  60. nathan says:

    $7.5 cap hit per player for 13 years. A bit of a cap hole at the back end, but lots of chances to fill out the edges in the front half.

    Will be interesting to see if this year will see the last of these borrowing against the team’s future contracts.

  61. Kris11 says:

    Good for Minny. I think it’s great for the league if the North Stars can get a bigger following. And what better way to that than by having a great core of elite American players: Suter, Parise, Gilbert.

    It sucks that they’re a rival for the playoffs, but c’est la vie.

    These are good deals. They might only turn into albatrosses in the distant future when these guys are 35, but as long as they retire before decline. no problem. I’d expect it isn’t a problem and the last few years are “tails” just to bring down the cap hit.

  62. jonrmcleod says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    Was that a diss?

  63. DSF says:

    matmik: Parise’s a good player but he’s not elite – let’s see Suter without Webber

    Parise scored 31 goals last season.

    That places him 10th among LW.

    I’d call that elite since he also has 38, 45, 32 and 31 goal seasons on his resume.

    What’s your definition of elite?

  64. "Steve Smith" says:

    Moosemess,

    You know Whitney’s going into the last year of his contract, right?

  65. matmik says:

    does Petry, Klefbom, and MPS get you into a conversation for Webber? Could you do it without giving up the big 4

  66. Kris11 says:

    Steve Smith is so clever and ironic, ew he’s such a smarty pants.

    I diss Steve for dissing Jonr for dissing Steve Smith for dissing JonR for dissing DSF for dissing Oiler Fans.

    Now that is a diss!

  67. bookje says:

    DSF: Wondered how long it would take Oiler fans to start dissing Suter and Parise.

    Twist, Twist, Twist – its what you do best DSF.

    Long contracts are a risk. 13 years is a long contract. I think they are inadvisable for any team regardless of the player involved.

  68. DSF says:

    Moosemess:
    The most consistent rumour at the moment has Hemsky in play. That makes sense to me, if the brass see their potential training camp depth chart as follows:

    Hall > Gagner > Eberle(personally, I can’t ignore the chemistry of that Chicago game)
    MPS or Hartikainen> RNH > Yakupov
    Smyth > Horcoff > Eager
    Petrell > Belanger > Jones (Hordichuk)

    VandeVelde?

    Smid > Petry
    N Schultz > J Schultz
    Sutton > Potter (Whitney)

    Klefbom?

    While signing a big name FA or two would certainly fast track the playoff push, I think the key factors are the 2 millstone contracts the Oil are carrying with Whitney and Horcoff.

    I think the club would desperately love to see Klefbom and J Schultz impress mightily in camp, cos if they do, you’ve got the makings of a reasonable defensive depth chart with a lot of hope and prayer involved obviously. If Whitney’s health/mobility improves, there’s possibly enough there for a playoff push. If he’s still a pylon, I don’t think Katz is inclined to eat the contract in the A (ala Souray) and I suspect the preference is to keep him as a pressbox/swingman while you view this as a necessary evil development year for K-Bom and Schultz. The only way I see the Oil signing FA D is if the term is short, or if they see a trade market at the deadline for Sutton or Whitney.

    Horcoff’s contract remains a problem in terms of balancing out the bottom 6, but I suspect the prospect of burying it in the minors is not palatable at all until it’s the difference between the team making the playoffs and being a serious contender for the Cup. As much as I’d like to see VandeVelde get a serious shot this year, I think Belanger’s skills on the dot will keep him in the show. Would be great if they could trade him for someone who can win FOs AND bring an edge.

    Given all of the above, I think the preferred move at this time is to trade a package including Hemsky for an excellent two way center with size. The Oil desperately need a 2C/3C swingman that can move up to the 2nd line to replace either Gagner or RNH when they’re facing bigger competition.

    What I particularly don’t like about the approach above is that is assumes MPS or Harti must play Top 6 minutes and J Schultz Top 4 minutes to make this work, but time and again the Oil have shown this propensity for sink or swim development.

    I suspect Tambi’s plan is to work the phones with cap maxed teams with a surfeit of center depth and a need for a playmaking winger. The question as always is, does Hemsky have any real trade value at this point given the injury history/cap hit? I fear that saying ‘Hemsky is being dangled’ is a little like saying I’ve got a 20 year old RX7 up for grabs. Sure the rotary engine is a nice conversation piece but who really gives an eff?

    Great post.

    Nailed it.

  69. nathan says:

    matmik,

    No. Yes. Don’t.

  70. CrazyCoach says:

    bookje: I have gone from “Satisfied with the approach of management with a fear that they are actually incompetent and will totally mess this up” to “Satisfied with the approach of management with a somewhat reduced fear that they are actually incompetent and will totally mess this up”. That seems justifiable to me.

    I remember hearing KLowe on, “The Boys on The Bus”, say that Glen Sather believed that you should change 20% of your team every year. Some changes have been made with this group, but nowhere near 20%.

    The real acid test for this management team going forward is of course, asset management. Do they have enough skills to see to it that each and every player in their system is improving or at the very least, maintaining an adequate level of play? Can you keep Todd Nelson on OKC for the next five years or will some other team give him a job? Can Marincin, Klefblom, Musil, et al. keep developing at a rate that translates into everyday NHL players? Can Krueger build team chemistry and a philosophy that is not only successful on the ice but also successful in keeping/attracting players to play in Edmonton?

    Yes, so many questions going forward. I’m still a little leery of this management group, but the hiring of MacT and Krueger give me hope.

  71. uni says:

    DSF: Wondered how long it would take Oiler fans to start dissing Suter and Parise.

    Well, looks like with this little coup you’ll be right. Minnie is going to make noise post haste next season, forget about 2-3 years from now when their young prospects/players are NHL hardened.

    Their defence each get moved down a slot making the entire unit more effective, and their forward scoring prospects get moved down a slot as well, taking a lot of the scoring pressure off them. Goddamn.

    The best news out of all this for non-Wild fans, is that unless Holland can pull a rabbit out of his hat, the long slow decline predicted for Detroit for the last decade finally seems likely to commence.

  72. spoiler says:

    Re; Klefbom

    Dohfos, if you’re reading…

    What is Brodin planning on doing next year, and what effect will that have on Klefbom’s decision?

    Re: Musil

    I would like to see a full year of good health for this prospect. I don’t know if he will ever be as good as say Teubert, but a healthy year will help.

    Re: Suter and Parise

    Compliments to Fletcher on his strategy of a double pitch focused on one local and one semi-local player. He’s a lucky fellow to have pulled it off. It is an unreliable way to re-build but in this instance it worked.

  73. gogliano says:

    All this point about optimism for no real reason misses the point that this isn’t all about playoffs for one season. Here is what the Oilers did thus far:

    1) They added two players (Yakupov, Schultz) who project to be top players in this league for years. Both slot high enough in the depth chart that less capable players can play in roles more fitting of their abilities. They also retained a UFA who can still slot at #2 or #3 LW for a playoff team (Smyth) and a UFA who can slide into the backup role for goal (Danis).

    2) They let some bad bets go (Barker) or recede to dimished roles (Khabibulin) without adding any stupid contracts that might interfere with the core.

    Championship teams are not built on July 1st. They never have been. July 1st is the peak of players’ bargaining position and this team needs to be smart about its salary structure going forward. Suter and Parise are great additions to Minnesota but they would be awful gambles here.

    The last 30 days have gone about as well as they could go for the Oil. As the Oil are a team that has a long history of questionable decisionmaking, I’m very pleased.

  74. Kris11 says:

    “While signing a big name FA or two would certainly fast track the playoff push, I think the key factors are the 2 millstone contracts the Oil are carrying with Whitney and Horcoff.”

    This is an important point, but I disagree.

    They have 20MM in cap space even with Horc and Whitney and only need rto sign 3 players. The cap will go up again, Khabi comes off the books, and Souray’s buyout does too. The cap is not a problem in the short and medium term.

    By the time they have to pay all of the fab 4 or whatever, Horc and Whitney will be off the books and could be bought out if it is a serious problem.

    That said, it is always good to avoid cap problems. But the Oilers don’t have one now. Remember, under the new cap of 70MM, if you spend to the cap, the average salary of your players will be 3MM. That means a league avergae guy gets a a 3MM deal.

    IMO.

  75. Quidge says:

    I would hate to see Hemsky traded until his value improves. Playing a full year with the kids could really have an impact on what we can get for him.

  76. CrazyCoach says:

    bookje: Long contracts are a risk. 13 years is a long contract. I think they are inadvisable for any team regardless of the player involved.

    Ah Minny joins the exclusive club of Garth Snow, Mike Gillis, George McPhee, and Paul Holmgren. 13 years is a long time for the average Joe. 13 years for an athlete is a lifetime deal.

    Somewhere, Don Fehr is sitting in his office, after a light lunch, chuckling with delight. He shouts out to his assistant, Diane, “Get me Bettman on the phone please!”

    Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the next episode of CBA Negotiators Gone Wild.

  77. nathan says:

    “Compliments to Fletcher on his strategy of a double pitch focused on one local and one semi-local player. He’s a lucky fellow to have pulled it off. It is an unreliable way to re-build but in this instance it worked.”

    spoiler,

    Thank goodness semi-local and young guns served us. Imagine if the Wild had also landed Schultz as well to go along with Heatley, Suter, and Parise.

  78. DSF says:

    uni: Well, looks like with this little coup you’ll be right.Minnie is going to make noise post haste next season, forget about 2-3 years from now when their young prospects/players are NHL hardened.

    Their defence each get moved down a slot making the entire unit more effective, and their forward scoring prospects get moved down a slot as well, taking a lot of the scoring pressure off them.Goddamn.

    The best news out of all this for non-Wild fans, is that unless Holland can pull a rabbit out of his hat, the long slow decline predicted for Detroit for the last decade finally seems likely to commence.

    Yep.

    Tom Gilbert (among others) just died and went to heaven.

    After years of watching Holland school everyone, it’ll be fascinating to see what he does next.

    You would have to think that Poile will be shopping Weber hard to avoid another episode of this.

  79. "Steve Smith" says:

    bookje: Twist, Twist, Twist – its what you do best DSF.

    Disagree – you’ve obviously never seen him play Duran Duran’s greatest hits on the spoons.

  80. Moosemess says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    Moosemess,

    You know Whitney’s going into the last year of his contract, right?

    Yes, and it’s precisely for that reason that I’m postulating the club has a vested interest in seeing him on the active roster this season rather than replacing him with a pricey FA.

  81. fuzzy muppet says:

    spoiler:
    Re; Klefbom

    Dohfos, if you’re reading…

    What is Brodin planning on doing next year, and what effect will that have on Klefbom’s decision?

    Re: Musil

    I would like to see a full year of good health for this prospect.I don’t know if he will ever be as good as say Teubert, but a healthy year will help.

    Re: Suter and Parise

    Compliments to Fletcher on his strategy of a double pitch focused on one local and one semi-local player.He’s a lucky fellow to have pulled it off.It is an unreliable way to re-build but in this instance it worked.

    I’d read a quote form Fletcher saying Brodin makes the team even if he falls down 50 times in practice.

    This, of course was before the Suter signing. I still think he makes the team and now he can be sheltered big time.

    Minnesota just got real good real fast….

  82. Ducey says:

    fuzzy muppet: That’s how quickly a team can rebuild. And they still have a tonne of good prospects coming.you don’t HAVE to suck for a decade. Oiler’s better start winning NOW…

    What? The Wild have made the playoff 3 times in 12 years. They have missed the playoffs the last four. Where do you think the prospects came from?

    What MIN does has little to do with what is happening here. If Fletcher was the GM of the Oilers would Parise and Suter come here?

    It should be fun to watch some Oiler/ Wild games now. I used to hate when the Lemaire trap version came to town.

  83. prairieschooner says:

    Woodguy

    I threw out Poise Quotient a few days ago, but I like the sound of Poise Metric better
    The only slight issue would be the abbreviation.

    If the Oilers go with Kleffbom does that get them off the hook for ugrading the D for this season?

  84. nathan says:

    ‏@RangersInSeven: After hearing about Parise and Suter Charles Wang has extended DiPietro’s deal by 8 years

  85. Moosemess says:

    KRIS11,

    FWIW, I agree with you, but I don’t think the issue is so much whether the Oil CAN sign FAs as it is whether they have the appetite to do that if it means having to carry a contract or three for players who are essentially being supplanted on the roster.

    I do believe the Oil will see this as another development year while they await the expiration of Whitney and Khabi’s deals and while they shop Hemsky. I think the expectation is for improvement, but it doesn’t necessarily have to be playoff push if it means taking on non-value contracts.

    In all honestly, if you can get a pro year under the belts of Schultz, Yakupov, Klefbom and a solid step forward for Dubnuk, they you enter the next season ready to resign your core, plugs the depth holes and go hellbent for leather.

    Give what Tyler posted here, it’s probably unreasonable to expect playoffs anyway.

    http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=4692

  86. Woodguy says:

    pboy: Suter is a fantastic hockey player. Easily one of the best defenceman in the league. Any team that picks him up, did very well for themselves. Parise is a very good but not great player. He has had perfect timing here, but this is a definite overpay for him.

    This should get the Nash rumor mill going again.

    Detroit doesn’t have their replacement for Lidstrom and Nashville loses a great player. A little more parity in the Western Conference.

    Parise scores 30+ goals and outshoots the tough comp.

    He’s the real deal.

  87. uni says:

    fuzzy muppet,

    Out of Farjestad the word is they’re down 3 defencemen, including Brodin. Klefbom is slated to become their #1 or #2 rearguard in the upcoming SEL season, something he seems to be relishing. He was at 18 minutes a night going into the playoffs, and consistently in the top 3 for ice-time on his team, should be good for all involved, Farjestad, Oilers, and Klefbom. He’s already a mainstay on their PK and EV as a shutdown option, now he’ll likely get the push on the PP as well.

  88. nathan says:

    Hawerchuk ‏@behindthenet MIN 4-year point average = 85 points. Best case, they’re now a 97 point team (true talent). Still 40% chance to miss playoffs in 2012-13!

  89. spoiler says:

    nathan: “Compliments to Fletcher on his strategy of a double pitch focused on one local and one semi-local player. He’s a lucky fellow to have pulled it off. It is an unreliable way to re-build but in this instance it worked.”spoiler, Thank goodness semi-local and young guns served us. Imagine if the Wild had also landed Schultz as well to go along with Heatley, Suter, and Parise.

    I wonder what effect Minnesota obtaining Tom Gilbert had on lassoing those two UFAs?

    Suter and Gilbert are very good friends.

  90. Moosemess says:

    gogliano:
    All this point about optimism for no real reason misses the point that this isn’t all about playoffs for one season.Here is what the Oilers did thus far:

    1) They added two players (Yakupov, Schultz) who project to be top players in this league for years. Both slot high enough in the depth chart that less capable players can play in roles more fitting of their abilities.They also retained a UFA who can still slot at #2 or #3 LW for a playoff team (Smyth) and a UFA who can slide into the backup role for goal (Danis).

    2) They let some bad bets go (Barker) or recede to dimished roles (Khabibulin) without adding any stupid contracts that might interfere with the core.

    Championship teams are not built on July 1st.They never have been.July 1st is the peak of players’ bargaining position and this team needs to be smart about its salary structure going forward.Suter and Parise are great additions to Minnesota but they would be awful gambles here.

    The last 30 days have gone about as well as they could go for the Oil.As the Oil are a team that has a long history of questionable decisionmaking, I’m very pleased.

    Great post.

  91. nathan says:

    spoiler,

    ~ Surely it was the truculence Fletcher added with Zenon Konopka ~

  92. spoiler says:

    Detroit’s in trouble. They really needed to pick up some quality FA this summer. I wonder what Holland’s move will be next.

  93. Moosemess says:

    spoiler: I wonder what effect Minnesota obtaining Tom Gilbert had on lassoing those two UFAs?

    Suter and Gilbert are very good friends.

    Signing a mediocre player to get a great one. I think that’s called the Eddie Mio gambit ; )

  94. uni says:

    spoiler: Detroit’s in trouble. They really needed to pick up some quality FA this summer. I wonder what Holland’s move will be next.

    Didn’t you know? That’s why Suter and Parise signed with Minnesota, they know they’ll be protected and were tired of having their shows run in Nashville and New Jersey respectively.

  95. nathan says:

    uni,

    Don’t forget the poise of Dany Heatley.

  96. DSF says:

    David Pagnotta ‏@TheFourthPeriod

    Don’t be surprised if Wings get into talks for Bouwmeester or Yandle… #justsaying

  97. speeds says:

    Archie: The only reason they keep him in the minors would to hold on to his rights for another year. If they want to advance his development they send him to OKC Barons. Musil is ready for the OKC and most likely will play there, the reasoning behind this is that the Oilers can have more control over his development there. Last year Marincin was held backbecause he need more muscle and from the sounds of things he didn’t do much weight training last summer. Musil doesn’t have that problem, he has the size to compete in the AHL.

    Musil isn’t AHL eligible, he’s too young given that he was drafted out of the CHL.

  98. CrazyCoach says:

    nathan: Don’t forget the poise of Dany Heatley.

    Funniest post I’ve heard all day.

  99. striatic says:

    uhg.

    getting to the playoffs is going to be a bitch now.

    realignment can’t come soon enough.

  100. justDOit says:

    nhlnumbers reporting the Minn salary cap is at $66.6M USD. Just another indication that the Mayan’s may be right.

  101. nathan says:

    striatic,

    If the re-alignment proceeds year after next we won’t be competing against the Wild, Blackhawks, Jackets, Wings, Preds, or Blues for playoff spots, but there’ll be fewer spots. I’m thinking the Wild will be in the easier conference the way teams are trending.

  102. striatic says:

    nathan,

    i’m okay with fewer spots.

    edmonton wasn’t *really* the second worse team in the NHL last year. they were bad but the schedule made them look at least two or three places worse, even accounting for the injuries.

  103. gd says:

    spoiler:
    Detroit’s in trouble. They really needed to pick up some quality FA this summer.I wonder what Holland’s move will be next.

    When you go through Det roster, they really don’t have anyone with much trade value, so I don’t know how they can even get Nash or Bouwmeester. Between the Suter/Parise decision and them not even getting close to Schultz tells me they are in trouble. As the rosters sit now, they are closer to McKinnon than the Cup.

    Have these signings set Weber contract at $100Mill for 13 yr ? If that’s the price I think that is worth it for the OIlers to go for him. Is Yak & Petry too much? Can any other team top that deal?

  104. Kris11 says:

    Moosemess,

    Fair points.

    —-

    I wouldn’t go so far as to say Detroit is in trouble. They have some great players on decent deals. they have a reputation as a winning club. They have lots of cap space and the will to use it. And they’ve had a pretty good record of drafting and developing.

    I do think, though, that Detroit finally has to face some adversity and make some riskier choices. I mean, do they throw a fortune at Carle on a possible overpay. It’s been a long time since Detroit has had to take risks like that. Ever since the dawn of the Red Wings dynasty, they’ve had Hall of Fame players willing to take discounts to stay there and the best FA’s lining up.

    It will be interesting to see how they do in the medium and longer term. Certainly they will have a good team for next year.

  105. nathan says:

    striatic,

    The NW will be tough, but it’s the conference strength that counts. The realignment looks like it might be a little bit tougher. But you’ll know who you’re chasing and I assume there will be great head to heads scheduled at the end of the season.

  106. Kris11 says:

    I don’t think Calgary can afford to lose Bouwmeester. They’re near the cap and aiming to win now. It’s tough to win now when you deal your best ES player for beans.

  107. Rondo says:

    Hello Seth Jones

  108. nathan says:

    Here’s a piece in the Minn. paper a week before free agency

    http://www.startribune.com/sports/wild/160196295.html

    “Parise being a Minnesotan and Suter’s wife being from Bloomington surely won’t be enough. The Wild, like others, have lots of salary-cap space. Maybe more than the Penguins, the Wild will have the ability to sweeten an offer with frontloaded money.”

  109. Kris11 says:

    But they just might deal him anyway. That Calgary squad would be an interesting group without Bouwmeester (and Jokinen who could also play tough minutes.). Lots of talent, but not many guys proven at tough minutes. In a way, it would be sort of the opposite of the teams Sutter tried to build for a while.

  110. speeds says:

    gd,

    Weber is a great player, but Yakupov and Petry? At the money you’d have to pay Weber? Pass from me.

  111. Rondo says:

    NJ needs some wingers , wonder if they will go after Semin. Or maybe the Oilers would like to trade

  112. striatic says:

    nathan,

    no matter how strong the rest of the conference, if you are playing 16 games a year against the Canucks and Wild, who both improved this year, you’re at a major disadvantage versus everyone else in the conference who doesn’t. Calgary and Colorado aren’t exactly gimme points either.

    the one positive that i can see is that in terms of development playing the league’s elite night after night might just teach the kids a thing or two and in the long run the team will improve because of it.

  113. spoiler says:

    Yeah, I think Detroit will make a push for Carle. But considering Philly missed out on Suter, he might just re-sign there.

  114. speeds says:

    striatic,

    With the current format you play those two 12 times, not 16. And the other divisions play them 8 times.

  115. Captain Obvious says:

    speeds:
    gd,

    Weber is a great player, but Yakupov and Petry?At the money you’d have to pay Weber?Pass from me.

    One million times this. Yakupov and Petry is an outrageous overpay for Weber.

    Given the salary he’s going to command, any team that trades for Weber automatically loses.

  116. nathan says:

    striatic,
    speeds,

    When you add it all up I think it’s a wash. Will be tougher than average before and after re-alignment.

  117. bookje says:

    I know some of you don’t read Oilersnation, but there is an interview with Hordichuk that I would call a must read. It lays out some of the problems (from Horts viewpoint) regarding Renney’s approach to coaching. More of an insider view than we normally get.

    http://oilersnation.com/2012/7/4/hordichuk-ralph-and-i-are-on-the-same-page

  118. nathan says:

    bookje,

    Never thrilled when player diss their last coach. Repeated division.

  119. DSF says:

    Aaron Portzline ‏@Aportzline

    Confirmed today Pittsburgh is on Rick Nash’s “approved” list. So #NYR, #Flyers, #RedWings, #SJSharks, #PghPenguins. Could be 1-2 others.

  120. bookje says:

    nathan:
    bookje,

    Never thrilled when player diss their last coach. Repeated division.

    Nathan, I think Hortichuk tries more to explain the challenges he had last year as opposed to outright dissing Renney. I agree that its better for that stuff to stay in the dressing room, but with that said, I am interested in reading it when it comes out. It helps give us some insight into at least one view of the Oilers dressing room last year.

  121. CrazyCoach says:

    I still don’t understand why Hordichuk has a spot? If you want grit, get a guy who goes out and runs over the other teams top player on the first shift. Not a guy who sits on the bench and waits to be tapped and given permission to be a tough guy. Initiate the nastiness. Don’t waste energy or a roster spot on someone looking to get even.

    Tootoo or Steve Ott would have fit Hordinchuk’s role just fine.

  122. nathan says:

    bookje,

    Interested too, but when it leaves the room the new coach will watch for more. When they praise you by contrast you’re not going to be thrilled about the pedestal.

  123. bookje says:

    CrazyCoach,

    Well, in the article Hortichuk suggests the same, that he wanted the opportunity to go out and set the tone instead of waiting to be put in a narrowly defined ‘retaliation’ role (with limited scope).

  124. bookje says:

    nathan:
    bookje,

    Interested too, but when it leaves the room the new coach will watch for more. When they praise you by contrast you’re not going to be thrilled about the pedestal.

    He also talks about how the refs give him leeway because they understand that he has a job to do. Seems like a really stupid thing to say because it creates pressure on the refs to NOT give him leeway.

  125. nathan says:

    bookje,

    Great. So now the coach and the refs have reasons to watch him. Hope he quiets down.

  126. CrazyCoach says:

    bookje: Well, in the article Hortichuk suggests the same, that he wanted the opportunity to go out and set the tone instead of waiting to be put in a narrowly defined ‘retaliation’ role (with limited scope).

    He doesn’t have the technical skills necessary to play that role. Horrible choice. I hope I’m wrong. That failed hit in the Canucks game pretty much summed up his contribution to this team this season, “Nice try, but absolutely no results”.

  127. Cactus says:

    For those worried about Suter in Minnesota, I present meaningless, out of context statistics!

    In the four games Edmonton played against Nashville last year, the Oilers won three by a combined margin of 16-8. In these contests Suter was a piddly 0 in +/-, the king of all stats. In fact, he was only greater than 0 in one game. We can’t lose!

    On a more serious note, never piss of Jonathan Willis. He’s a vindictive man that makes Tyler Dellow look like a cuddly kitten:

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2012/07/04/hockeyyinsiderr-everything-anyone-needs-to-know/

  128. PDO says:

    DSF: Yep.

    Tom Gilbert (among others) just died and went to heaven.

    After years of watching Holland school everyone, it’ll be fascinating to see what he does next.

    You would have to think that Poile will be shopping Weber hard to avoid another episode of this.

    Alexander Semin would be a wonderful fit there.

    Then he’ll trade nothing but cap space and beans for Jay-Bouw.

  129. nathan says:

    Cactus,

    Looking forward to his takedown on FB. Or if he’s really ambitious taking the Razor to to the line that Stu must have been overruled because he must have leaned the same way as my anon sources. (Not denying there were multiple opinions floating out there or being floated out there)

  130. stevezie says:

    No one can deny that Minnesota is going to be much better over the next couple seasons, but I don’t iike these contracts; I’d rather sign Semin or Jagr for a one year deal for too much money. I’m not sure there is such a thing as a bad one year deal.

    Too long, too much money. Maybe it will be worth it if they can make the next few years count.

  131. ashley says:

    Wow, 13 years. That’s a really long time. What was I doing in 1999? I can’t even remember.

    One year can be an eternity in the NHL when a player goes off the rails. 13!

    Here is a LT post from Horcoff’s signing 4 years ago which I think underscores the problem with a contract of this length:

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2008/07/nice.html

    That was only a 6 year contract, and I think we all wish it had been 3 max. It was a good signing at the time as reflected in the comments, just too long.

    As we all know how it turned out, Horc was riding favourable percentages and probably should have been paid 2-2.5 million less. We didn’t know that at the time, but a 3 year contract would have allowed us to fix it last year…..or let him go.

    6 years is too long for someone in their late 20′s. 13 years is an eternity.

    Those are big salaries too and just limits their ability to retain some of their talented youngsters in the coming years. With a cap, it is no longer about just getting the best available players. There is much skill required by the operations team to identify players that have more value to the team than what you need to pay them.

    Thankfully we have MacT now.

    I hope we never sign anyone in their late 20′s to a contract for more than 5 years. Way too much risk for the team and its fans.

  132. nathan says:

    stevezie,

    The years beyond 35 they just need them to retire if they decline too much. But that’s exactly why long contracts or at least long contracts beyond 35 need to be fixed.

  133. OilClog says:

    All you had to do last season was watch the games, you could clearly see Hordichuk’s frustration, Eager’s frustration. I think everyone was frustrated, fans, players, media. Renney is good at building the border to a puzzle, but once that’s done.. He’s like a chicken running around screaming about the sky falling..” I went to a funeral.. And I still showed up! ” .. Last season was a disaster, I’m excited to see what a real driver can do with this car.

  134. Cactus says:

    ashley,

    It’s funny, I used to hold the same opinion, but after a brief discussion of contracts in a recent thread, I think I’ve done a complete 180 on this. I think there’s some evidence that the only way to be consistently competitive in the NHL cap world is to lock up your star players on long-term deals AND have them not bust. Of course, that’s the real trick isn’t it?

    Pittsburgh was in the running for both Suter and Parise. They’d never be able to do that if Crosby hadn’t taken a long term deal at a reasonable cap hit. If he takes a 5 year deal at a market rate, he’s making somewhere between $12-14M each year. That top end is almost as much as it’s costing Minnesota for both Suter and Parise. Of course, if the poor guy ends up like Lindros (pick either brother) and concussions ruin him, then that contract is a pair of concrete shoes for the Penguins. Detroit has the same advantage with the reasonable contracts on Datsyuk and Zetterberg. This advantage is further bolstered by the rising cap. Every year, these deals become a better value.

    Unless you can use some voodoo to convince good players to take big hometown discounts, I just don’t know how you’ll be able to compete in the cap world without giving 10 year deals to your best players.

  135. DSF says:

    stevezie:
    No one can deny that Minnesota is going to be much better over the next couple seasons, but I don’t iike these contracts; I’d rather sign Semin or Jagr for a one year deal for too much money. I’m not sure there is such a thing as a bad one year deal.

    Too long, too much money. Maybe it will be worth it if they can make the next few years count.

    OilClog:
    All you had to do last season was watch the games, you could clearly see Hordichuk’s frustration, Eager’s frustration. I think everyone was frustrated, fans, players, media. Renney is good at building the border to a puzzle, but once that’s done.. He’s like a chicken running around screaming about the sky falling..” I went to a funeral.. And I still showed up! ” ..Last season was a disaster, I’m excited to see what a real driver can do with this car.

    It’s all about winning a cup.

    LA has Doughty (7 more years), Kopitar (a 6 year contract), Richards (8 more years), Carter (10 more years) and Quick (11 more years).

    While there is certainly risk on all those contracts, the fact that Richards and Carter were moved AFTER those contracts were signed, shows you that they are not a death sentence.

    Minnesota has Heatley’s contract ($7.5M) coming off the books after two more seasons and Backstrom $6M) only has this next season left.

    They’ll be just fine.

  136. ashley says:

    Some players are truly elite. No sane team would ever surrender them to UFA. The list is short but includes guys like Crosby and Ovechkin. Generational talents. You want them on your team forever so you sign them long term.

    Suter and Parise are not even close to being in the same league as Crosby.

    Remember DiPietro and Yashin?

  137. DSF says:

    PDO: Alexander Semin would be a wonderful fit there.

    Then he’ll trade nothing but cap space and beans for Jay-Bouw.

    That’s a very good bet.

  138. nathan says:

    Cactus,

    But it’s at least partly predicated on guys retiring early. If the portion of the contract beyond 35 was treated separately for cap purposes the story changes. We’ll see what the new CBA looks like.

  139. DSF says:

    ashley:
    Some players are truly elite.No sane team would ever surrender them to UFA.The list is short but includes guys like Crosby and Ovechkin.Generational talents.You want them on your team forever so you sign them long term.

    Suter and Parise are not even close to being in the same league as Crosby.

    How many 10 year contracts do the teams who competed in the SCF have?

    See LA above.

  140. Traktor says:

    Shitty news for Vancouver fans. I don’t mind losing to good players but isn’t Vancouver supposed to have 3 cups by now? They might be the new Sharks.

  141. Cactus says:

    nathan:
    Cactus,

    But it’s at least partly predicated on guys retiring early. If the portion of the contract beyond 35 was treated separately for cap purposes the story changes. We’ll see what the new CBA looks like.

    Well, that or playing at a potentially massive discount. If Parise is playing as well as Jagr at 36, then he’ll be way below his value, even at that age.

  142. ashley says:

    Cactus,

    I think the risk is significant that half of the time on these contracts will be an albatross.

    I don’t think either of them is as valuable to any team anymore with those price tags attached.

    Could MIN trade either of those guys today for anything other than DiPietro?

  143. nathan says:

    ashley,
    Cactus,

    The downside risk is partly covered by the guy retiring when there’s a steep decline. Both sides are interested in changes beyond 35. We’ll see if any of that lines up.

  144. Cactus says:

    ashley:
    Some players are truly elite.No sane team would ever surrender them to UFA.The list is short but includes guys like Crosby and Ovechkin.Generational talents.You want them on your team forever so you sign them long term.

    Suter and Parise are not even close to being in the same league as Crosby.

    Remember DiPietro and Yashin?

    Yeah, Yashin was a disaster, but what about Zetterberg? He’s locked up for years at $6M. That guy would easily clear $7, $7.5M on a 3-5 year deal. Look at LA. They were able to get both Richards AND Carter because their cap hits are sub $6M. If they had signed 3-5 year deals in Philly, they would have been $7-8M and LA could never have afforded both.

    Again, I agree with you that it’s almost Roulette to be handing out huge contracts to very good (as opposed to elite/generational players), but we may find that it’s the only way to get good value under the cap, allowing for a more talented team, per cap dollar.

  145. nathan says:

    “but we may find that it’s the only way to get good value under the cap, allowing for a more talented team, per cap dollar.”

    Cactus,

    The last CBA encourages this. At least if it goes sour and they don’t retire at 35 there’s always that chance to dominate the lottery.

  146. HeavySig says:

    Something stands out in the Gregor interview of Hordichuk; the description of Eager’s attitude and how it may have affected his actions.

    DH: Benny knows exactly what his role is. He knows what he has to do and I think that people get frustrated with him, but I think when Bennie played well he felt that maybe he was rewarded. So maybe when he wasn’t rewarded he didn’t want to fight for somebody. And that’s what I think that it came down to. So it’s one of those things were sometimes you feel you deserve a little more than you’ve been getting so you’ll go to bat for somebody. But I think that he thought he was getting the short end of the stick and he just gave up on that role, and maybe on Tom a little bit.

    So if Ben is mad at the coach, he decides it’s OK to stand there and twiddle his thumbs as teammates get pounded?

    Too bad you can’t put Hordichuk’s head on Eager’s body, one has the try and one has the tools.

    Oh, LT, you are definitely right about Larry Robinson, but the Hab’s defense in 1971 already had Serge Savard, Guy Lapointe, JC Tremblay, Jacques Laperriere….their worst defenseman probably ended up with over 400 NHL games played. They moved some bodies to make a place for the Bird the next season when he was racking up a point a game half way through the AHL season. It was the right handling for sure, since he didn’t hit 225 pounds on his 6′ 4″ right off the hop. I still haven’t seen an NHL defense as stacked as the 70′s Habs, and he was the best of them.

  147. stevezie says:

    DSF,

    Fully admit that the contracts are defensible, largely because of the BS back years that they might retire for, but I disagree with you on the Quick contract.

    Has there been one long-term contract given to a goalie that hasn’t gone on to fall somewhere between “bad idea in hindsight” and “total disaster”?

    Modern goalies are rarely able to put together musltiple elite seasons in a row. Injuries, variation in defensive systems and plain old streaks conspire to make goalies very strange long-term bets. I don’t know if I can criticize LA because after the cup and the Conn Smythe I really don’t know what else they could have done, but I do not envy them the Quick contract.

  148. OilClog says:

    “It’s all about winning a cup” – DSF

    I can rest easy now that I know what it’s all about.

  149. stevezie says:

    HeavySig,

    Totally agree and I said the same thing on ON, “This confirms what I thought of Eager, which honestly wasn’t much. I understand it must suck to put your face on the line when your coach doesn’t respect you, but not doing your job is no way to earn that respect.”

    More than ready to lose that guy.

  150. ashley says:

    Cactus,

    I see your point. And it seems we can both agree that it’s a risky bet. If it works out, good for them. I doubt it does in this case, speaking for the long term (2018 and beyond). In the near term, they should benefit assuming both players continue their level of play.

    If the CBA is changed this year to contracts for players 35+, I wonder if it will apply to contracts signed under the previous CBA. Or are all contracts subject to the rules of a new CBA?

  151. nathan says:

    ashley,

    They would grandfather in contracts from the old CBA if they change the calculation for the portion beyond 35.

  152. Moosemess says:

    I’m hopeful that Krueger can be the guy to mend fences with Eager as he can play a role that helps the team. It’s possible that Eager carried a grudge with Renney and/or the team for too long, but the org did hang him out to dry letting him get concussed by a career minor leaguer in an intra squad game.

    This year will be a fresh start for Eager and I think both he and Krueger will make the most of it. I look forward to him having a good year.

  153. ashley says:

    nathan,

    Well that makes it more interesting yet. While it is being assumed that there might be an out for players and teams with contracts in the 35+ years, the terms for these older players under contract could not change at all.

    There will certainly be some teams with these long contracts that lobby for such a change, but others may be content to keep things as they are (ie make the gambling GM’s suffer).

    Given that potential for division on the owner side on this issue, it doesn’t seem like a slam dunk that these terms will change in the next CBA. When there are disagreements, status quo is a common outrcome.

  154. FPB94 says:

    WoW. When I heard at the job that Suter and Parise signed in Minnesota i tought that was a joke…

    Well. All their whale hunting has finally paid off.

  155. nathan says:

    Another angle on the long term contract is someone signing Weber to enough years to stay below $7.8M per and preserving 2 first round picks. But Weber isn’t signing that offer sheet unless he’s willing to let Nashville lock him in. Imagine Nashville will get 2 first rounders as part of any trade.

  156. nathan says:

    ashley,

    Doubt there’d be any disagreement on the already signed contracts. There could be a division on the new contracts with some wanting no change, others a limit on years, others various rules for the portion from 35 years. Which could lead to the status quo.

  157. remember reijo says:

    wow….I never want a UFA to walk away free of charge. I hope whoever is GM here when the time comes makes the hard decision.

  158. Cactus says:

    ashley,

    I’ll add another rule to bring us closer to agreement: never sign goalies to more than 5 or 6 years!

    Of course, who knows what happens with the next CBA.

  159. ashley says:

    nathan,

    Oh, I think I misunderstood. By grandfather, you mean the contracts signed under the current CBA would be subject to those “old” CBA rules rather than the new or amended CBA?

    My post above assumed the opposite.

  160. nathan says:

    ashley,

    Yeah. If they break out the part beyond 35 for cap purposes (rather than blending it in) that could only apply to new contracts where everyone has fair notice.

  161. ashley says:

    Cactus,

    Agreed. Goalies are so heterogenous in their performance. Few consistently dominate. God one year, goat the next.

    If the current rules remain unchanged, I think a GM has to think about some sort of sliding scale for the term.

    Perhaps no more than 10 years for a second contract RFA, no more than 8 for a mid 20′s UFA, and no more than 5-6 for a late 20′s UFA. Generational talents excepted.

    And even at those lengths, you would have to really believe that they were elite players likely to continue with their success. This would have weeded out Horcoff.

    As a fan, I don’t want to take on more risk than that, and I hope the guys running the show are thinking the same as me.

    Perhaps that puts you out of contention for the July 1 madness, but probably for the better anyway.

    I am confident MIN will regret this day. The question remains if they can find glory before regret.

  162. stevezie says:

    Moosemess:
    I’m hopeful that Krueger can be the guy to mend fences with Eager as he can play a role that helps the team.It’s possible that Eager carried a grudge with Renney and/or the team for too long, but the org did hang him out to dry letting him get concussed by a career minor leaguer in an intra squad game.

    This year will be a fresh start for Eager and I think both he and Krueger will make the most of it. I look forward to him having a good year.

    I don’t understand how the organization was supposed to prevent that, or how they could have aided his recovery. In any case by hurting the organization Eager hurt himself a lot more.

    I hope he proves me wrong, but as of right now Eager looks like a petulant prima donna. It sucks, but one of the things fourth liners are paid to do is have no ego. Sulking is not the best way to get more playing time.

  163. nathan says:

    ashley,

    Are you counting the contract length or the years with real pay? Because at least for the current CBA there’s a strong chance the guy retires and leave those last 3 years of fractional pay on the table and wipes out the full cap hit for those years. Sad rules.

  164. ashley says:

    nathan,

    Ah, I just looked the contracts up on capgeek. I was assuming full 7.5 million/year for 13 years. I thought after Lou got in trouble, you couldn’t do that anymore.

    Well that certainly takes some of the risk off the table for the team, especially if the player retires, as you suggest.

  165. bookje says:

    stevezie: I don’t understand how the organization was supposed to prevent that, or how they could have aided his recovery. In any case by hurting the organization Eager hurt himself a lot more.

    I hope he proves me wrong, but as of right now Eager looks like a petulant prima donna. It sucks, but one of the things fourth liners are paid to do is have no ego. Sulking is not the best way to get more playing time.

    Not knowing what role you are supposed to play is different than sulking. Not sure what the case was, but some good players have been lost in that regard in the past (due to coach-player communication).

  166. nathan says:

    ashley,

    They just set a boundary at the extreme case. Out where odds of playing for those low-balled dollars approaches zero. PA needs to agree to anything more. One option is separating the portion from 35 to treat all new contract years from 35 equally.

    Here’s an ugly one. Supposing the window on these deals is closing and the Oilers wants to do them with core players eligible for extension. The only benefit is when you include lowball ‘retirement’ years. Think Hall and Eberle are too young to risk that number of years.

  167. ashley says:

    This blogger thinks the contracts are offside but will still be approved.

    http://offsidesportsblog.blogspot.ca/2012/07/parise-suter-contracts-circumvention-of.html

  168. speeds says:

    nathan:
    ashley,

    Yeah. If they break out the part beyond 35 for cap purposes (rather than blending it in) that could only apply to new contracts where everyone has fair notice.

    My understanding is they can do whatever they want provided both parties agree.

  169. nathan says:

    ashley,

    Looks a lot like the Luongo deal which the arbitrator flagged as not acceptable. The question is does the NHL want to stir the pot ahead of negotiations.

  170. nathan says:

    speeds,

    No realistic chance that teams with these deals in place would agree to cap hit being redone for existing contracts.

  171. speeds says:

    nathan:
    speeds,

    No realistic chance that teams with these deals in place would agree to cap hit being redone for existing contracts.

    Depends on the rest of the deal. Would it be worse for those teams than the players accepting a 24% rollback last time?

  172. stevezie says:

    bookje,

    That is true, however, and I might be misunderstanding Darcy here, the Hordichuk interview gave me the impression that it was a case of, “If you’re not going to play me, I’m not going to fight.”

    I understand Eager’s problem, it sucks when you feel you’re the only one giving anything to a relationship, but he was getting paid, and you owe your teammates if not the organization.

  173. nathan says:

    speeds,

    The owners will eat each other when share of the pie is on the line. Bettman is not going to set owner against owner for loose change. Sure he could go the mattresses for retroactive rules beyond 35 and the PA could say go ahead. But that’s a windmill.

  174. slopitch says:

    If Pronger went for Lupul, Smid, 2 firsts and a 2nd. Oilers should try a similar offer for Weber. MPS, Musil and 3 picks? Gagner, Musil and 3 picks?

    Poile is a smart GM but Pronger had a better contract.

    Won’t happen I get it, but try anyways

  175. pboy says:

    OilClog: “It’s all about winning a cup” – DSFI can rest easy now that I know what it’s all about.

    And if anyone would know what it’s all about, it would be a Canuck’s fan…………..

  176. godot10 says:

    Renney had his guys. If you were one of his guys, you didn’t have to be accountable. If you were not of his guys, you were screwed. It didn’t matter how you played. If you played well, you were punished. If you played poorly, you were punished. And there was no joining the IN club, regardless of how you played. There was no path for redemption.

  177. Moosemess says:

    stevezie: I don’t understand how the organization was supposed to prevent that, or how they could have aided his recovery. In any case by hurting the organization Eager hurt himself a lot more.

    I hope he proves me wrong, but as of right now Eager looks like a petulant prima donna. It sucks, but one of the things fourth liners are paid to do is have no ego. Sulking is not the best way to get more playing time.

    You’re certainly entitled to your opinion on the player but I would offer two points for consideration.

    1) Eager’s been a good soldier for the other teams he’s played on, so why would he suddenly become a prima-donna here?

    2) Avoiding the circumstances that led to the Tulupov hit on Eager is easily doable. Bottom line, you don’t invite minor league headhunters to make a name for themselves in an intra-squad game. That kind of behavior should be encouraged when playing the opposition, not your own. If Taylor Hall had taken that hit in the Joey Moss, the public would’ve want Tulupov pilloried in the public square. But it wasn’t the franchise, it was a recently arrived FA, so the reaction was ‘meh’

    I’ve spoken to a fair few Oil fans since, and I can tell you that ones who were in attendance and close to the hit share the same pov that the hit was a serious error in judgement by the coaching staff, while those who weren’t there shrug and write it off a ‘sh*t happens’ hockey injury.

    After seeing it myself live, it was the one time that I thought that Sheldon Souray may have had a point.

  178. Bruce McCurdy says:

    :
    Cactus,

    But it’s at least partly predicated on guys retiring early. If the portion of the contract beyond 35 was treated separately for cap purposes the story changes. We’ll see what the new CBA looks like.

    Bingo. I’ve had that same suggestion about these ridiculous contracts for a while now. Treat the years after age 35 the same as if they were signed after age 35. Early retirement? Good for the player, but team is stuck with the cap hit. That’ll put an end to this shit.

  179. godot10 says:

    I seriously doubt that Weber would consider a rebuild, even a promising one like Edmonton, when he will be pursued by Detroit and Philly.

    He will choose a contender. Philly or bust, I expect. Philly can offer Nashville a lot of nice pieces, like say Couturier and Voracek, or the Schenn brothers.

  180. nathan says:

    slopitch,

    I’d assume bidding starts at two firsts, the second, and the third and Preds will want the two firsts plus something better than the 2nd and 3rd. To make that work you pretty much need a window to arrange a trade and sign.

  181. SoxandOil says:

    What’s reasonable expectations for the Oilers post the wonder kids ELCs. Would long term (10+ years) contracts be wise for the ‘core 4′? Giving them more for their RFA years and praying for health for UFA years, Hall could be a concern and maybe Nail. Also Hall and Ebs seem to have the friendship that these buddy deals are built upon. The magic number might be 100 million, identical 12 year 8.25 AAV or 13 year 7.5 AAV would definately be a gamble and assuming a 70 million cap ceiling moving forward would only leave between 37 and 40 mil to fill out the roster (not alot of wiggle room). If 6 mil of the remainder goes towards goaltending and between 20 and 23 mil goes to defence that leaves 14 million to go to the final 7 players including a 2C and not including any depth/ healthy scratches.

    Looks like one of the 4 kids will have to go but 3 should be do-able. Fingers crossed.

  182. speeds says:

    nathan:
    speeds,

    The owners will eat each other when share of the pie is on the line. Bettman is not going to set owner against owner for loose change. Sure he could go the mattresses for retroactive rules beyond 35 and the PA could say go ahead. But that’s a windmill.

    At the same time, most owners won’t kill a good deal over loose change. It depends on the deal.

    How many teams REALLY care about the repercussions from changing the cap hits of these tail deals? 5? 8?

  183. nathan says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Agreed. The PA might be interested in a number of rule changes beyond 35, but whatever they agree to treat those years above 35 the same on all new contracts.

    “Early retirement? Good for the player, but team is stuck with the cap hit. That’ll put an end to this shit.”

    Most annoying are those $1M years with $7M hits where they want the player to retire. Stop them from averaging years beyond 35 into the earlier cap hits.

  184. Bruce McCurdy says:

    nathan,

    nathan:
    Another angle on the long term contract is someone signing Weber to enough years to stay below $7.8M per and preserving 2 first round picks. But Weber isn’t signing that offer sheet unless he’s willing to let Nashville lock him in. Imagine Nashville will get 2 first rounders as part of any trade.

    No can do. For compensation purposes, long-team deals to RFA’s are calculated as [Total value of contract / maximum of 5 years] . So for example if a team signed Weber to a Suter-type deal, the compensation would be based on [$98 MM / 5 = $19.6 MM (!!)], and maximum compensation. No loopholes here.

  185. Bruce McCurdy says:

    nathan:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    Agreed. The PA might be interested in a number of rule changes beyond 35, but whatever they agree to treat those years above 35 the same on all new contracts.

    “Early retirement? Good for the player, but team is stuck with the cap hit. That’ll put an end to this shit.”

    Except for those $1M years with $7M hits where they want the player to retire. Stop them from averaging yearsbeyond 35 into the earlier cap hits

    Either that, or leave the team stuck with the full cap hit for the “retired” seasons. That would put an end to these offers extending to age 39 or 42 or 87 or whatever. Way too much risk for the team to even consider it.

  186. nathan says:

    speeds,

    I can see status quo or a non-retroactive change. Bettman’s not tilting at windmills.

  187. speeds says:

    We’ve been reading suggestions for awhile that Bettman doesn’t like these deals, and has been encouraging teams not to do them. Is that true? No idea.

    But if Bettman puts together a deal that gets the owners a bunch of money, retroactively changes 35+ cap hits, and doesn’t allow teams to park guys with one way money in the minors, can he get enough votes to pass it?

    I think so.

  188. bookje says:

    After the Kovalchuk deal, there was an agreement struck between the NHL and NHLPA governing contracts over five years long. Anyone remember the details? I cant find it online.

    Never mind,

    Found it here.

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=536524

  189. Moosemess says:

    Good read on today’s signings.

    http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Hockey/NHL/FreeAgents/2012/07/04/19949646.html

    With Jordan Staal, Suter, Parise and to a lesser extent, J Schultz, it’s interesting to note how much it boiled down to personal considerations for the player as opposed to competitive or monetary ones.

    It’s always been the dual edged sword of professional sports that the financial remuneration is extreme but it comes at the price of separation from friends, family, roots. With the cap system, it seems like the players are taking back a good portion of that power.

    Going forward, one of the ancillary benefits of the Oil drafting and grooming prospects with the Oil Kings could be the familiarity with the community that it breeds. With both the Esks and Oil, there seems to be a strong correlation with the team’s performance and their investment in the community. When the team is made up of too many mercenaries who bolt as soon as the offseason arrives, the team seems to suffer as a result. Both the Eskimo and Oiler dynasties had a number of players who lived here year round.

  190. nathan says:

    Either that, or leave the team stuck with the full cap hit for the “retired” seasons

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Either way the post 35 year caps would stick, so the PA might prefer to keep the cap hit in those years out of the blending. Heck they may look for specific rules for 40 years old or buyout beyond 35 for all I know. But whatever the two parties agree to the main thing is to sever the years beyond 35 from cap averaging with earlier years.

  191. nathan says:

    speeds,

    Why would he do a retroactive deal if a non-retroactive deal was available? What is his motivation to screw 8 teams? And why would the PA agree to a retro deal but shoot down a non-retro deal? Windmills.

  192. nathan says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    speeds,

    bookje,

    So here’s the precedent for a rule to sever certain years from the cap calculations.

    “While players and clubs can continue to negotiate long-term contracts (five years or longer) that include contract years in a player’s 40s, for purposes of salary-cap calculation the contract will effectively be cut off in the year of the contract in which the player turns 41″

    That’s the interim settlement. Will be interesting to see if they go further in the CBA to take in the years beyond 35 where the cap hit sticks.

    Just checked Hossa at capgeek and the interim rule seems to only be for new contracts.

  193. speeds says:

    nathan:
    speeds,

    Why would he do a retroactive deal if a non-retroactive deal was available? What is his motivation to screw 8 teams? And why would the PA agree to a retro deal but shoot down a non-retro deal?Windmills.

    It’s impossible to know the motivations because we don’t have the info. It would “screw” 8 teams, but supposedly he’s been telling teams for awhile not to do this – if so, it’s not like they weren’t warned. He would also ingratiate himself to the larger number of teams who don’t like these deals. If those 20 teams are voting from competitive self interest, hurting the cap situation of 8 other teams is a feature, not a bug.

    I’m not saying that I think it’s a lock or anything. In fact, I don’t think it will prove to be a critical issue, and if I was guessing don’t think it will be dealt with retroactively. But that isn’t to say I think it’s impossible.

  194. leadfarmer says:

    Logged in today and waslike wow 200 comments on David Musil whats going on. Then I saw the big news, what a fantastic bit of sorcery by Fletcher. I might finally go to the excel and watch the wild play the oilers instead of staying at home and turning the game off after half an hour. Huge news for the sport here, cause while hockey is huge in MSP the Wild are not.

  195. nathan says:

    speeds,

    I’d default to assuming non-retroactive changes unless there is enough motivation to pull back benefits from select teams. Apparently the interim deal that severed the years beyond 40 was non-retroactive.

  196. HeavySig says:

    Moosemess: You’re certainly entitled to your opinion on the player but I would offer two points for consideration.

    1) Eager’s been a good soldier for the other teams he’s played on, so why would he suddenly become a prima-donna here?

    2) Avoiding the circumstances that led to the Tulupov hit on Eager is easily doable. Bottom line, you don’t invite minor league headhunters to make a name for themselves in an intra-squad game. That kind of behavior should be encouraged when playing the opposition, not your own. If Taylor Hall had taken that hit in the Joey Moss, the public would’ve want Tulupov pilloried in the public square. But it wasn’t the franchise, it was a recently arrived FA, so the reaction was ‘meh’

    I’ve spoken to a fair few Oil fans since, and I can tell you that ones who were in attendance and close to the hit share the same pov that the hit was a serious error in judgement by the coaching staff, while those who weren’t there shrug and write it off a ‘sh*t happens’ hockey injury.

    After seeing it myself live, it was the one time that I thought that Sheldon Souray may have had a point.

    1) What is your definition of a “good soldier”? To me that is someone who does his job, regardless of the circumstances and/or hurt feelings. I see a guy who has played for 5 teams during his 7 years in the NHL. A guy who occasionally gets mean enough to make something happen and/or get suspended.
    If he has some character references, I am interested in seeing them. I would like to have some hope for his contributions, but I am getting Ethan Moreau vibes from Eager at the moment.

    2) The concussion to open the season was a terrible thing to happen for Eager, and it may have indeed affected him for the whole season. Recall Stoll took more than a season to get back to normal after his. Staff and players should have been all over the new players to let them know the score at the Joey Moss. That being said, Eager has made his share of blind side hits and sucker punches in his day, so there probably wasn’t a lot of sympathy cards for him from fellow NHL players.

  197. "Steve Smith" says:

    Moosemess: Signing a mediocre player to get a great one. I think that’s called the Eddie Mio gambit ; )

    You’ve got an awfully harsh definition of “mediocre”. Gilbert’s no Suter, but he’s better than anybody the Oilers have currently (unless Whitney’s suddenly healthy or Justin Schultz blows the doors off reasonable expectations in his rookie season).

  198. bendelson says:

    I sure like what the Oilers have done so far – it’s clearly been an impressive summer to date.

    And although I rarely enter the fray in this manner…

    Now that the Wild have made the big UFA move of the year, is the right trade for the Oilers out there?

    To the Oilers: Dubinsky and Tyutin.
    To the NYR: Nash, Peckham. Omark
    To the CBJ: Gagner, DelZotto, NYR !st, EDM 2nd

    So long as NY wants to pay a steep price for Nash… everyone wins no?

  199. Ducey says:

    “Steve Smith”: You’ve got an awfully harsh definition of “mediocre”. Gilbert’s no Suter, but he’s better than anybody the Oilers have currently (unless Whitney’s suddenly healthy or Justin Schultz blows the doors off reasonable expectations in his rookie season).

    I’d take Smid or Petry over Gilbert any day of the week. They passed him at some point last season and will be even better this season.

    (And I like Gilbert)

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