PORTSIDE 12-13

Left Wing is the fluid position among the Oiler forward group for 12-13. Edmonton’s top 3 center’s and (four) RW’s are already known to us. Left wing? There’s an opening.

EVEN STRENGTH TOI/GM AND 5X5/60

  1. Taylor Hall 15:06/2.07
  2. Ryan Smyth 14:26/1.93
  3. Teemu Hartikainen 12:59/1.36
  4. Magnus Paajarvi 11:56/0.75
  5. Ben Eager 8:29/1.46
  6. Darcy Hordichuk 4:20/.096

I love that Taylor Hall is an Oiler. Seriously. He’s the payoff for all those lost men we cheered for despite their draft number, their wide body strides, their pubis thing, their feet of clay. Here’s hoping Hall can stay healthy, because it doesn’t look like anything else will stop him.

Smyth had an amazing start and his overall number in this discipline ranked him 120th overall for forwards over 40gp, which is well inside the average top 6F for NHL teams

SH TOI GAME

  1. Ryan Smyth 2:09

PP TOI GAME AND 5X4/60

  1. Taylor Hall 3:03/5.95
  2. Ryan Smyth 2:28/2.39
  3. Magnus Paajarvi 1:01/2.84

Hall’s number is 18th best in the league among forwards playing 40 or more games. Smyth’s number is not strong and of course one of the reasons he wore down was the TOI per game.

WOWY

  • Taylor Hall, plays well with Hemsky, Gagner, Nuge, things go better with Hall.
  • Ryan Smyth, plays well with Hemsky and Gagner but has crazy good chem with Ryan Jones. I mean it’s eerie.
  • Teemu Hartikainen and the Nuge looked nice in a small sample size.
  • Magnus Paajarvi played well with Horcoff, Hemsky and Omark in a small sample.
  • Ben Eager has a large group of people who shouldn’t play with him.
  • Darcy Hordichukand Magnus Paajarvi spent 3.5 beautiful minutes together.

CORSI QUAL COMP

Hall is a man. Lordy. Ryan Smyth also has a good number, which should be better if they spot him a little better this coming season.

SUMMARY

Taylor Hall is easily the class of the group, and after that there’s a gap to the 2nd best available. Woodguy/PDO suggested in the last thread that the solution is moving Eberle to LW, which is brilliant if that option is available. The forwards might look like this:

  • Gagner-Hall-Hemsky
  • Nuge-Eberle-Yakupov
  • Horcoff-Smyth-Jones (remember the Smyth-Jones wowy)
  • Belanger-Eager/Hordichuk-Hartikain/Paajarvi/Petrell

That’s mostly DBO’s lineup with help from PDO and then I’m riffing on the 3/4 lines. I think the top 2 lines look fabulous here, would prefer Daniel Winnik for the 3rd line RW slot and that 4line still looks too much like last year.

But there are good things there.

If the Oilers do run Eberle-Hemsky-Yakupov on RW, then LW becomes a problem. Taylor Hall at the front is top drawer–once he’s back from injury–but after that the club has Ryan Smyth, Magnus Paajarvi, Teemu Hartikainen, Lennart Petrell, Ben Eager and Darcy Hordichuk.

I hope that one of Teemu Hartikainen or Magnus Paajarvi pushes through and wins the day. I suspect the organization will give Hartikainen a push–remember his power move on the first NHL goal he scored–and that Paajarvi forces the issue.

One of those young men could do the Oilers a massive favor–step into camp and work hard to earn it, like Kyle Brodziak did that amazing fall when there were four job openings and a dozen candidates.

There’s one or two available jobs this fall (if the Oilers are  quiet from here). Which player wins the opportunity among the prospects, suspects, also rans and older men? My guess is (the Eberle option aside) Edmonton runs Hall, Hartikainen, Smyth, Eager, Hordichuk to start the season.

 

 

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80 Responses to "PORTSIDE 12-13"

  1. Bar_Qu says:

    I probably shouldn’t share this, but my cousin’s gf works with a guy who does part-time custodial work for the Oilers head office, and they tell me the Oilers are working on gene-replication program – the obvious conclusion is they are trying to clone Taylor Hall #fakerumors

  2. DBO says:

    Winnick and Rozsival. Two vets who make us better without breaking bank. Guess it all depends on who switches sides. Is it easier for young guy so he only learns one way, or old guy who can process better?

    My ideal lineup to start year.

    Hall – Gagner – Hemsky
    Yakupov – Nuge – Eberle
    Smyth – Horcoff – Winnick
    MPS – Belanger – Jones

    Smid – Petry
    Shultz – Shultz
    Whitney – Rozsival

    Is that a playoff team? It has a shot. It has some balance, but most importantly it has some depth. I like Hartikainen to push Jones and Hordichuk to slot in 35 times, and Sutton 35 (cause there will be injuries)

  3. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I just hope that if we add something of value we don’t make the mistake we made last year and leave MPS (or anyone else, minus Hordichuk or Petrell) sitting for an extended period of time, or that we succumb to that brain addled thinking that sees players heading back and forth to OKC every few days.

    Or, I just hope there is some longer term strategy going on about how to use these relatively minor parts of the puzzle (I’m thinking of the bottom 6 and the hangers on).

    That said, what is the wait on a player like Winnik? if he is a legit target… what could possibly stall a signing? The only thing I can think is the Oilers are hoping for Doan, or targeting another player altogether (or no one at all).

  4. Beaker says:

    Man it’s so hard to be patient during the summer days. I just want the Oilers to do a couple moves (Yandle + Winnik type things) then I can go back to feelings stupidly optomistic and dreaming about next season. Right now I avoid thinking about next season because I feel we are like 11th or 12th in the west next year and thats sad.

  5. misfit says:

    Just going off your last few posts and the WOWY stuff, this would seem like a good way to line ‘em up on opening night:

    1. Hartikainen – Nuge – Eberle
    2. Hall – Gagner – Yakupov
    3. Paajarvi – Horcoff – Hemsky
    4. Smyth – Belanger – Jones

    1. RNH and Eberle seem to get the most out of each other and get terrific results when together. Hartikainen was at his best with Nuge he adds an element of size to the group.

    2. Gagner’s best results came along side Hall (as is probably the case with every center). Hemsky would be a likely candidate to play RW on this line, but Yakupov is going to make this team and seemed like a more logical fit on a 2nd line that’ll probably get more time in the offensive zone.

    3. Horcoff and Hemsky work. Smyth may seem like the better fit for this line, and I suspect that’s what we’ll actually see when the games are played, but Paajarvi was at his best with 10/83 and putting him back with Belanger is just cruel (to both players).

    4. This line is all about the Jones/Smyth duo, but it also gets the most out of Belanger. I was calling for an Eager-Belanger-Jones line this time last year, which I still see as likely if one of Paajarvi/Hartikainen starts the year in OKC (also likely) and Smyth goes to the Horcoff/Hemsky line (as he should). This 4th line is actually more of a checking line that can play meaningful minutes against quality opposition instead of a collection of meatheads who are only there for “energy”.

  6. godot10 says:

    Put Yakupov with two more defensively aware guys, and a mentor who can accelerate his development into a power vs. power player.

    i.e. Put Horcoff between Paajarvi and Yakupov.

    Hartikainen/Smyth/Eager Nugent-Hopkins Eberle (LW matchup dependent)
    Hall Gagner Hemsky
    Paajarvi Horcoff Yakupov
    Hartikainen/Smyth/Eager Belanger Jones/Petrell

    i.e. choose pairs

    Nugent-Hopkins Eberle
    Gagner Hemsky
    Horcoff Yakupov

    Adjust the left wing for each line depending on matchups or whether one is at home or on the road, or until one finds combination that rock’n'roll.

  7. Clay says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Just to play devil’s advocate – we don’t know that they haven’t offered deals to the likes of Winnik or Rozsival, and they haven’t taken them. I think that’s just as likely as Tambo et al waiting around doing nothing as far as signing free agents.

    Edit: By saying “just as likely”, I’m not necessarily endorsing the current management team, my point is just that we don’t know what has or hasn’t been offered to whom.

  8. Traktor says:

    Eberle’s go-to move is wheeling down the right wing and then toe-dragging the puck for 1 second to buy time for things to open up or catching the goalie moving from side-to-side. I don’t think his moves on rush would be as effective on the LW and there is a good chance he would get trolley track’d with the way he loves to hold onto the puck in the slot.

  9. Ducey says:

    Winnick and Rozsival. Two vets who make us better without breaking bank. Guess it all depends on who switches sides. Is it easier for young guy so he only learns one way, or old guy who can process better?

    Winnik’s name has been mentioned a few times here. Yet Ryan Jones is mud. I don’t understand why.

    Winnik has seasons of 19, 26 and 23 points. He is 6’1″ and 200 lbs so is not a monster. He was a 9th rounder, so is unlikely to be very toolsy (ie. little upside).

    Winnik last season: 84 GP 8 15 23pts 52 PIM -11
    Ryan Jones last season: 79 GP 17 16 33 pts 33 PIM -7

    Are there some fancy stats that show Winnik is some sort of tough minutes player? Because if he can’t play third line minutes well, there doesn’t seem any reason to put him ahead of Jones.

  10. loosemoose says:

    godot10,

    Don’t get me wrong, I understand what the point is with your line combos, but………
    I know I can’t be the only one who cringes when I see Horcoff’s name next to Yakupov.

    I really appriciate what Horcoff does for the team and for what he is as a player, but no real Oiler fan can not think about the two -three offensive chances that will go the wayside with ol’ cap’n Horc and anyone offensive.

    Then again, I think I would cringe more if it was LW-Gomez-Yakupov……it could be worse :)

  11. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Clay:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Just to play devil’s advocate – we don’t know that they haven’t offered deals to the likes of Winnik or Rozsival, and they haven’t taken them.I think that’s just as likely as Tambo et al waiting around doing nothing as far as signing free agents.

    Edit:By saying “just as likely”, I’m not necessarily endorsing the current management team, my point is just that we don’t know what has or hasn’t been offered to whom.

    I had considered that somewhat… I guess I figured if an offer was ever put on the table and was either being negotiated or rejected, we would have heard something… but now that I think about it… I’m sure numerous non-deals happen that never see the light of media day…

    So, I totally agree… They could be waiting, targeting someone else, no one, have been rejected, tried other players, etc… lots of options really.

    Does anyone know if Stauffer or anyone “connected” has asked the mgt. team if they are targeting Winnik? or, have names been put on the table at the forward position as persons of interest?

    All I can remember is ST responding to a question about Doan in the Schultz presser with fodder about how great Doan is… no real info.

  12. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Ducey: Are there some fancy stats that show Winnik is some sort of tough minutes player? Because if he can’t play third line minutes well, there doesn’t seem any reason to put him ahead of Jones.

    I think you hit the nail on the head there… I think LT’s been championing Winnik as a stronger 2-way guy… who gets his offence more honestly and is more reliable at home.

  13. Jesse says:

    Ducey:
    Winnick and Rozsival. Two vets who make us better without breaking bank. Guess it all depends on who switches sides. Is it easier for young guy so he only learns one way, or old guy who can process better?

    Winnik’s name has been mentioned a few times here. Yet Ryan Jones is mud.I don’t understand why.

    Winnik has seasons of 19, 26 and 23 points.He is 6’1″ and 200 lbs so is not a monster.He was a 9th rounder, so is unlikely to be very toolsy (ie. little upside).

    Winnik last season:84 GP 8 15 23pts 52 PIM -11
    Ryan Jones last season: 79 GP 17 16 33 pts 33 PIM -7

    Are there some fancy stats that show Winnik is some sort of tough minutes player?Because if he can’t play third line minutes well, there doesn’t seem any reason to put him ahead of Jones.

    Winnik has a much better Corsi than Jones while facing tougher competition.

  14. rickithebear says:

    After looking at wowy:
    Your building a Car: 73 Duster
    Corsi WoWY is all the Tech:
    Block Size: 360
    Carb: and Jets: Carter
    Ram Manifold: edillbrock
    Cam:……….Etc
    This tech says the car should Do X:

    Goal WOWY: is putting the car on the Track:
    On the track : over .500
    Hall plays best with Eberle (.568), Gagner(.567), Horcoff (.545). RNH (.531), Hemsky (.478)
    Smyth Plays best with Gagner(.769), Eberle (.706), RNH (.619)
    Eager best with Gagner (1.000), Jones(.667), Belanger (.600)
    Hartikainen best with Hemsky(.800), Gagner(.667), Eberle(.667), RNH(.667)

    To me there is no doubt:
    Hall-Horc-XXX
    Smyth-Gagner-XXX
    Hartikainen-RNH-XXX
    Eager-Bel-XXX

    Centers with RW.
    Gagner best with Eberle(.550), Hemsky(.542)
    RNH best with Eberle (.593)
    BEL with MP(.625)

    So
    Hall(.545)-Horc-XXX(.xxx)
    Smyth(.769)-Gagner-Hemsky(.542)
    Hartikainen(.667)-RNH-Eberle(.593)
    Eager(.600)-Bel-MP(.625)

    jones was .460 to .440 with belanger, Gagner, RNH
    Most effective with Eager, Hemsky.

    So jones and MP can be a Interchange based on PK.

  15. Evilas says:

    LT,

    I know the photo is supposed to be of Hall, but to me it looks more like Omark….

    ….Confused in Cochrane

  16. sliderule says:

    Ok al you advanced stats gurus tell me how RNHs corsi corrected by quality of comp be so much different than Eberle.

    As I believe they played together for most of the season except when RNH was hurt their corrected for comp corsi should be closer shouldn’t it.If they played each shift exactly the same for the whole season all the many corsis should be the same or am I missing something.

    It seems to me that you could just as easily save a lot of effort and just have a plus minus corrected for your team and quality of comp.

    I know plus minus has it’s detractions but if you are growing muffins at goalie which have no chance of going in you build up your corsi (MPS ) .That doesn’t give me a lot of confidence that I am receiving a revelation with the many corsis.

  17. Cactus says:

    Ducey,

    Here are your fancy stats:
    Winnik: 5th hardest Corsi QoC, 3.9 CorsiRel
    Jones: 8th hardest Corsi QoC, -2.9 Corsi Rel

    Winnick’s PDO is also lower. He comes out ahead, but if I can find this information in 2 mins, why is he still unsigned? Perhaps he wants too much money.

  18. rickithebear says:

    sliderule: I know plus minus has it’s detractions but if you are growing muffins at goalie which have no chance of going in you build up your corsi (MPS ) .That doesn’t give me a lot of confidence that I am receiving a revelation with the many corsis.

    Well one of you gets it:

    3% chance of scoring and 85% chance of scoring Aprox. 3000%. sooooooo accurate.

    sadly espn had a shot chart for the NHL with the game cast play by play. A review of that plus every shot in the game. Gets a true cummulative Corsi. plus I want a corsi count versus zone start and zone entry.

    Then and only then does corsi mater as a effective situation stat. to this point it is a very basic piece of data that supports or questions the GF/GA.
    1. the corsi ratio is similiar to goal ratio. (average scorer)
    2. the corsi ratio is higher than the Goal Ratio. (sucks at scoring)
    3. The corsi ratio is lower than the goal ratio (good at scoring)

    Or maybe the Comp and Zone start is more of a factor.
    we have a winner sir!

  19. rickithebear says:

    Wow went to Mc site to fully understand PDO.

    Move to mean .No shit sherlock. all stats do.

    baut What Mean?
    The League mean?
    the Mean for a Dpair?
    The mean for any given forward in Quality of Comp(goals) and Zone start Situation.
    That would make more sense cause the expected Save % and Sh% would be alot diffrent. Situation to Situation.

  20. nathan says:

    “Woodguy/PDO suggested in the last thread that the solution is moving Eberle to LW, which is brilliant if that option is available”

    There are 3 right shot forwards on the team. Unless they have a positive history playing off wing why move Eberle, Hemsky, or Gagner to the LW?

  21. VOR says:

    Sliderule,

    There are several great attempts at adjusted plus/minus. My favorite is Tom Awad’s.

    Rikki,

    Corsi is meant to be a more impartial measure of how well a particular player is doing against whatever competition they have faced than GF/GA or +/-. Goals for and against take in a lot of other factors, mainly goal tending. There is no proof that someone with a great corsi and a terrible GF/GA is a bad scorer. All they would need to do is play with horrible defence and terrible goaltending to create exactly that pattern – in other words nearly every Oiler forward last year. Also, and I will say it again, luck plays a role in outcome. Also carrying your argument forward what you really need to know is how a player’s competition played on any given night in order to really know anything. More like the data David Staples kept for who made what mistake on each goal.

  22. VOR says:

    Rikki,

    I think you had better go back and re-read the material on PDO.

    The reversion is to long term league averages. The point is exactly that the search is for a stat that reverts to a league mean so we have an indication of the effect luck is having.

    As for the MPS model – the muffin argument against corsi – there is no accepted way of determining shot quality and thus we only have your impression that MPS doesn’t have a good shot. An impression based almost entirely on the fact he doesn’t score.

  23. VOR says:

    By the way Rikki, prove for me that zone start or Quality of Competition effect shooting % or SV%.

  24. WeridAl says:

    LT your line up doesn’t fix a major problem the Oilers had last year, and that was the lack of size in the top 6. They will never make the playoffs with a line up like that. Teams like LA, Vancouver, Calgary will continue to run over them and their goons will constantly continue to take runs at the Oilers smaller highly skilled players. IMO the defense right now is the least of Edmonton’s worries.

  25. russ99 says:

    I’d really like to think that Horcoff’s offensive decline was due to Quinn/Renney’s defensive system and that changes Krueger will make to open up the offense will see him get back to his pre-tank results.

    But that could be wishful thinking. The big problem with both of our 3rd/4th line centers is that last year any skill player put on Horcoff’s or Belanger’s lines saw a noticble drop-off.

    To start, I’d keep Hemsky or Yakupov far away from their lines…

  26. Ducey says:

    Cactus: Ducey, Here are your fancy stats:Winnik: 5th hardest Corsi QoC, 3.9 CorsiRelJones: 8th hardest Corsi QoC, -2.9 Corsi RelWinnick’s PDO is also lower. He comes out ahead, but if I can find this information in 2 mins, why is he still unsigned? Perhaps he wants too much money.

    Thanks. My work computer doesn’t allow me access to Behind the Net. Maybe Tambo’s doesn’t either.

  27. DSF says:

    VOR:
    Rikki,

    I think you had better go back and re-read the material on PDO.

    The reversion is to long term league averages. The point is exactly that the search is for a stat that reverts to a league mean so we have an indication of the effect luck is having.

    As for the MPS model – the muffin argument against corsi – there is no accepted way of determining shot quality and thus we only have your impression that MPS doesn’t have a good shot. An impression based almost entirely on the fact he doesn’t score.

    What else would you possibly base it on?

    Paajarvi has a very poor shooting percentage in the SEL, the AHL and the NHL and required injuries in his rookie season to give him the top six minutes and PP time to put up third line scoring numbers.

    If It walks like a duck…..

    Until shot quality becomes a factor in Corsi, it’s like trying to crack a walnut with a chain saw.

  28. Traktor says:

    If Winnik had a better Corsi than Jones then why didn’t it show up in the results?

    How often do players with poor Corsi’s overachieve and vice versa? Doesn’t that tell us a lot about Corsi?

  29. Bar_Qu says:

    WeridAl:
    LT your line up doesn’t fix a major problem the Oilers had last year, and that was the lack of size in the top 6. They will never make the playoffs with a line up like that. Teams like LA, Vancouver, Calgary will continue to run over them and their goons will constantly continue to take runs at the Oilers smaller highly skilled players. IMO the defense right now is the least of Edmonton’s worries.

    Calgary is at least as small if not smaller than Edm now. And goons running players results in penalties which resulted (last season) in goals. Then the running players over stops. Edm as constructed won’t make the playoffs, but will start to show other teams that the free ride is over. This ‘sign a big guy’ nonsense will go away with the wins.

    BTW, the bigger players on the Oil were certainly not the better players. And I think we can all agree that Edm does not need more poor players.

  30. DSF says:

    Bar_Qu: Calgary is at least as small if not smaller than Edm now. And goons running players results in penalties which resulted (last season) in goals. Then the running players over stops. Edm as constructed won’t make the playoffs, but will start to show other teams that the free ride is over. This ‘sign a big guy’ nonsense will go away with the wins.

    BTW, the bigger players on the Oil were certainly not the better players. And I think we can all agree that Edm does not need more poor players.

    The Oilers had a top ranked PP last season and finished 29th.

    It would appear there is a little more involved in winning.

  31. VOR says:

    In the 1970s statisticians tried to determine shot quality for Basketball. Now they log every single shot for every player. So it should have been easy.

    At first it seemed self-evident. Bottom of the key, lay ups, tap ins, alley oops should be the best spot to score from. The high percentage play. Next should have been the corners and or top of the key. The classic post jumper, the hook shot, the true set shot, off the pick and roll. Nope, for the data set they were looking at the play you wanted was to push the ball back to the shooting guard, about three steps either side of the top of what would now be the top of the three point arc. They even gave the spot a name, Cobo. Because no place in basketball was this more obviously the best place to score from than in Cobo Hall in Detroit. Partly of course this was because of the one eyed basketball savant David Bing. He but it up a lot in the years in study and he hit it a lot. But there had to be more than that.

    There was, the data set covered the best years of some of the greatest shooters in the history of basketball including West, Robertson, etc. Their teams, when they needed points would kick the ball out to these guys and they’d tee it up. Inside you had to contend with the erasers, guys like Chamberlain and Russell.

    What it showed was shot quality by location is constant over time. It is very dependent on player effects and team effects.

    There seems to be an idea here that a slapper from the slot is the number #1 quality shot. I’d suggest that before you all except that as gospel you go on line and read a little bit about where goals are scored from and in what circumstances. This is not the simple problem you all assume. How much better would MPS be if every shot he took from the wing was through a screen?

  32. nathan says:

    Traktor,

    It’s all about sample size. Of course 50 goal events tells you more than 50 shot events. But a one year sample with better plus minus will steer you wrong whenever shooting/save percentages spike. If we bet on a guy whose shot differentials got worse but his goal differentials improved, spotting the negative arrows wins the bet more often than not.

  33. Dee Dee says:

    RE: Team Player Size

    Haven’t found an easy way to crunch this stat without ALOT or Excel work, but i ran across http://blackbluegold.wordpress.com/2012/02/10/vulgar-statistics-nhl-teams-and-size/

    Author averaged every teams height using players that had played at least 10 games.

    Only teams ahead of the Oilers size wise were Washington and San Jose. And they were only .1 of an inch taller.

    The Oilers past problems weren’t due to lack of players size. Every player that had Grit was traded away or replaced with soft, Skill guys.

  34. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Cactus: Here are your fancy stats:
    Winnik: 5th hardest Corsi QoC, 3.9 CorsiRel
    Jones: 8th hardest Corsi QoC, -2.9 Corsi Rel
    Winnick’s PDO is also lower. He comes out ahead, but if I can find this information in 2 mins, why is he still unsigned? Perhaps he wants too much money.

    More like “Here are your Selected fancy stats”

    Hey, if you’re going to quote Corsi REL (which is fine by me), shouldn’t you also use Corsi REL QoC? Hey lookit! Winnik 8th hardest Corsi REL QoC; Jones 5th hardest Corsi REL QoC. Flips right around.

    Behind the Net stats are very touchy for a player who switched teams during the year, as Winnik did. Seeing where he “ranks” among San Jose players when he played 3/4 of the season with Colorado is a mug’s game. Corsi REL-based stats are likely the only ones that have much meaning, and even that is kind of shaky.

    As for Winnik’s PDO being lower, is that supposed to be a positive for some reason? I keep reading comments (and not just yours, Cactus) that come across that way. Yes I get regression to the mean, but I don’t just assume that if luck balanced out everybody would be at 1.000. Surely some of those conversion rates are skill-based. Case in point:

    Winnik 5.0% Sh% ON + .922 Sv% ON= .972 PDO
    Jones 7.9% Sh% ON + .914 Sv% ON = .993 PDO

    Winnik actually had a better save percentage behind him — the factor more generally linked to goaltending + luck, especially for forwards — while Jones had a far superior Sh% ON that drove his overall-better PDO.

    Looking at the same stats for 2010-11:

    Winnik 5.4% Sh% ON + .928 Sv% ON= .981 PDO
    Jones 8.1% Sh% ON + .925 Sv% ON = 1.005 PDO

    Hmmm.

    If you look at their career arcs, Winnik has a career personal Sh% of just 5.9%, has been in the single digits every year of his career, and below 5% (!!) in 3 of the last 4 years. Jones has a career Sh% of 12.9%, has been in the double digits every year of his career, and has been north of 12% the last three years in a row.

    Hey, I like Daniel Winnik just fine, would love to add him to the team, but this idea that he would represent some vast improvement over Ryan Jones — the only consistent scoring threat in Oilers’ bottom six the last two years running — doesn’t ring true in these ears.

  35. Traktor says:

    Bruce McCurdy: More like “Here are your Selected fancy stats”

    Hey, if you’re going to quote Corsi REL (which is fine by me), shouldn’t you also use Corsi REL QoC?Hey lookit! Winnik 8th hardest Corsi REL QoC; Jones 5th hardest Corsi REL QoC. Flips right around.

    Behind the Net stats are very touchy for a player who switched teams during the year, as Winnik did. Seeing where he “ranks” among San Jose players when he played 3/4 of the season with Colorado is a mug’s game.Corsi REL-based stats are likely the only ones that have much meaning, and even that is kind of shaky.

    As for Winnik’s PDO being lower, is that supposed to be a positive for some reason? I keep reading comments (and not just yours, Cactus) that come across that way. Yes I get regression to the mean, but I don’t just assume that if luck balanced out everybody would be at 1.000. Surely some of those conversion rates are skill-based. Case in point:

    Winnik 5.0% Sh% ON + .922 Sv% ON= .972 PDO
    Jones 7.9% Sh% ON + .914 Sv% ON = .993 PDO

    Winnik actually had a better save percentage behind him — the factor more generally linked to goaltending + luck, especially for forwards — while Jones had a far superior Sh% ON that drove his overall-better PDO.

    Looking at the same stats for 2010-11:

    Winnik 5.4% Sh% ON + .928 Sv% ON= .981 PDO
    Jones 8.1% Sh% ON + .925 Sv% ON = 1.005 PDO

    Hmmm.

    If you look at their career arcs, Winnik has a career personal Sh% of just 5.9%, has been in the single digits every year of his career, and below 5% (!!) in 3 of the last 4 years. Jones has a career Sh% of 12.9%, has been in the double digits every year of his career, and has been north of 12% the last three years in a row.

    Hey, I like Daniel Winnik just fine, would love to add him to the team, but this idea that he would represent some vast improvement over Ryan Jones — the only consistent scoring threat in Oilers’ bottom six the last two years running — doesn’t ring true in these ears.

    Great post Bruce!

  36. commonfan14 says:

    VOR: How much better would MPS be if every shot he took from the wing was through a screen?

    Not much if he just hit the goalie in the chest or missed the net with them.

    Free throws represent pretty ideal shooting conditions in basketball. Bad shooters still suck at them.

  37. rickithebear says:

    VOR: By the way Rikki, prove for me that zone start or Quality of Competition effect shooting % or SV%.

    They do not!

    it gives an expected performance based on situation.

    just like corsi is reflective of zone pocession.

    Save % is relective of GOALS given up!

    Shooting % is a reflection of GOALS got.

  38. DBO says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Well said sir. So add him and put him on 4th line with MPS and Belanger. Run Jones with Horc and Smyth for a solid checking line and suddenly we have 4 capable lines, with two of them who have a chance to light it up every night.

    Hall-Gagner-Hemsky
    Yak-Nuge-Eberle
    Smyth-Horc-Jones
    MPS-Belanger-Winnick

    Actual NHL players. Shocking.

  39. Woodguy says:

    nathan:
    Traktor,

    It’s all about sample size. Of course 50 goal events tells you more than 50 shot events. But a one year sample with better plus minus will steer you wrong whenever shooting/save percentages spike. If we bet on a guy whose shot differentials got worse but his goal differentials improved, spotting the negative arrows wins the bet more often than not.

    Agreed.

    Here’s another way to think about.

    Sorry for the poker analogy, but its accessible.

    If you go all in pre-flop in No Limit Hold Em with AA vs.22 and AA will win 80% (give or take, from memory) over time.

    If you do this 10 times you can easlily be 50% with AA and 50% with 22 over that small sample.

    Doesn’t mean that AA isn’t 80%, it just means you are experiencing variance.

    Also,

    Krueger was on Stauffer show,

    Sound like Yak will be moved to LW as they like stick on the boards in the D-zone, BUT said the forward will be free to switch when they are in the O-zone.

    So assume sticks against the boards when figuring out the wings.

    4-89-83
    Yak-93-14
    94-10-28
    Harski-Belanger-PRV

    I like that because your 4th line wings can put pressure on the upper line wings.

    If they are outplaying upper line wings ingame, then the coach. Can make a switch in-game.

    Bowman was the master of this.

    Keeps everyone working hard.

    Having dregs on the 4th line doesn’t allow that option.

  40. DeadmanWaking says:

    Most of these averages suck, because they use roster membership rather than playing minutes. Even better if the playing minutes were pro-rated by outcome hanging in the balance: minutes played with the score 8-3 shouldn’t count so much. If you look at the recent Oiler teams averaged over game-critical ice minutes, the “size” apparent in our pre-game skate collapses like a split-pea souffle. We’re probably close to league lead in the size and holding power of our lard-ass staple gun. The training crew must resurface the warm end of the player’s bench every 10 home games. On the plus side, we’ve got a Formula One calibre line change. Our little guys are lofted onto the ice like little old ladies after the hamburger platter lands at an after-church picnic where the girls in bikinis can only be seen taking up a roost on the favoured side of the picnic table. Hey there, young studs, one of you needs to swivel around, and make it quick, grandma’s passing through apogee. Set her down nicely, young man. She was a real beauty back in the day, weren’t you gran? Now pass her the mustard, can’t you see she’s been gnawing at one edge of her triple burger since before you showed up? Sure thing pa … French’s or Dijon? Gran: Don’t you get smart with me, young man! You don’t know mustard. I once killed three rats with a dinner roll. What’s a croissant worth when the Germans come, you tell me that!

    Bruce: I don’t post on cult. Once you start spreading it around, it begins to sound earnest. Maybe you’ll see this here. I think there are inhibitions behind the legal sausage curtain about baking age into the CBA too aggressively, for fear that they open a can of worms on their constitutional exemption as a monopoly employer. When they drew the line at 40, there are exceedingly few players who’ve amounted to much past that age. Thomas won a Conn Smyth at age 38, and his contract is treated differently, to his financial detriment, than a guy 34 years old–by what non-discriminatory principle of a constitutional, democratic society? The economic rationale is pretty straightforward, but individual freedoms to contract aren’t about safeguarding institutional convenience.

  41. Bruce McCurdy says:

    DeadmanWaking,

    Thanks for reading. What I don’t get is how 35+ is the defining factor of some contracts, and a possible future rife with abuse in others. One extreme to the other. Surely there is a balance that can be found in there somewhere, that said this is the NHL we’re talking about where 1+1 = 3.

    In related news, NikolaiKhabibulin should change his sweater number to 35+. ;)

  42. Bar_Qu says:

    DSF,

    Yes, luck. Despite improving in every area the Oilers only improved one standing place. I think it highly unlikely if they were to continue to improve they would only move up one standing place.

    How does this relate to the relative unimportance of size in the forward corps? Oh yeah, not at all.

    Bruce,

    I have mentionned this before, but if Jones were to go away and be replaced by player X, I suspect Jones’ new team would find him singularly useful in a similar fashion to how Colin Fraser , Kyle Brodziak or Gilbert Brule came to be viewed. Jones’ warts only stand out more on the Oilers since there has been a poorly constructed team which demands everyone play above their ability. On good teams, these are useful players.

    I am not enamored of the Winnik option for this reason. The Oilers could aim higher. Dubinsky for instance.

  43. Gret99zky says:

    Here’s something for shits and giggles.

    The fab four turned A-Team.

    http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/picture.php?albumid=1000&pictureid=11057

  44. Cactus says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    I feel honoured to be smacked down by one the grand masters of Oil blogosphere analysis! I should clarify however, that I wasn’t trying to cherrypick stats, simply summarize a couple of the categories that seem to be driving the argument. Nor am I a Jones hater. I’ve said before that I don’t know that Winnick adds enough value in 2-way play to offset Jones’ offence.

    With that said, I actually feel that the better substitute for Jones is probably Paajarvi. Similar offensive production, but with more upside. In 2010-11, their Magnus came out ahead in Corsi, CorsiRel and they seemed to come out around even in Quality of Competition.

    If people really don’t want Jones, the replacement is already in the system. No need to add a contract to get it.

  45. Kris11 says:

    WG,

    Is your second line a liability, especially during away games, when opposing coaches will go at RNH?

    I like Eberle, but he has given away a lot and isn’t an ES driver like Hall. Or at least he hasn’t shown that he is, by my eye pr by the numbers.

    And Yakupov is exciting, but is likely to give away the world at ES,

    Granted, you can run that line out a lotin the opposing teams end, but I might put at least one more veteran player on that line just to help out, certainly on the road.

    Of course, there is the chance that RNH emerges a la Toews next year and beats the league into submission, but I wouldn’t bank on it.

  46. OilClog says:

    4-89-83
    Yak-93-14
    94-10-28
    Harski-Belanger-PRV

    I like this.

    The 4th could easily be 2nd on most nights, this is about as even as it could get. Nothing wrong with MPS on the 4th if he actually gets rewarded with ice time from solid play. I’m offloading Eager, putting Omark on the 1st in OKC and selling him off once his stock is higher, would be the best choice, but we’re the Oilers.

  47. TheOtherJohn says:

    Bruce

    Great job, you have convinced us we don’t need Winnik!!

  48. Woodguy says:

    Kris11:
    WG,

    Is your second line a liability, especially during away games, when opposing coaches will go at RNH?

    I like Eberle, but he has given away a lot and isn’t an ES driver like Hall. Or at least he hasn’t shown that he is, by my eye pr by the numbers.

    And Yakupov is exciting, but is likely to give away the world at ES,

    Granted, you can run that line out a lotin the opposing teams end, but I might put at least one more veteran player on that line just to help out, certainly on the road.

    Of course, there is the chance that RNH emerges a la Toews next year and beats the league into submission, but I wouldn’t bank on it.

    No question the coach needs to work his ass off to gewt them 60+% Ozone starts and hide them as much as possible.

    I worry more about getting my best Dpair out against the toughs than hiding my soft minute line though.

    If they go after your soft minute line, that means they are leaving theirs exposed to be exploited as well.

    Win that game 6-5. :)

  49. WeridAl says:

    Bar_Qu,

    So when that coward Glencross was running amok, you think it’s OK because the Oilers will get a PP. What if one of the Oilers is injured, then your screwed. Then’s there the fact that the refs ate their whistles the last part of the season when it came to the Oilers. Remember the Renney comment about the LA game.

  50. ashley says:

    Slightly off topic in a specific sense, but very much on topic in a general sense:

    With all the lawyers here and this team’s ongoing futility, this may help to explain the common undertone in these threads.

    I look forward to this team’s success in the coming years, not to mention watching the members of the bar work harder to find reason for pessimism. ;)

  51. bendelson says:

    Gret99zky,

    “I love it when a plan comes together”

  52. Gret99zky says:

    bendelson:
    Gret99zky,

    “I love it when a plan comes together”

    Eberle doesn’t looked stoned for once.

  53. RENNAVATE says:

    Gret99zky:
    Here’s something for shits and giggles.

    The fab four turned A-Team.

    http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/picture.php?albumid=1000&pictureid=11057

    Ebs looks like he only knows how to say his own name, a la Hodor.

    “Ebs. Ebs. Ebs.”

  54. commonfan14 says:

    Is it just me, or does it make sense to leave Eberle unsheltered for most of this year?

    He’s a quick study who should be able to adapt pretty well, plus we want to make sure whatever numbers we end up paying him based on next offseason aren’t unnaturally inflated.

    Advanced stats are getting more and more accepted, but I bet it’s boxcars that still do almost all the driving when it comes to contract negotiations.

  55. bendelson says:

    RENNAVATE,

    Ummm… Hodor as in “a large, dim witted man with a very large penis”?

    Did I read that wrong??

  56. RENNAVATE says:

    bendelson:
    RENNAVATE,

    Ummm…Hodor as in “a large, dim witted man with a very large penis”?

    Did I read that wrong??

    Yeah, from Game of Thrones. Eberle looks kind of slow in that picture, thus the reference. No idea about the size of his (Eberle’s) penis.

  57. bendelson says:

    RENNAVATE,

    O boy. I don’t know anything about Game of Thrones. I picked it up quote from the urban dictionary after reading your post.

  58. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Cactus:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    I feel honoured to be smacked down by one the grand masters of Oil blogosphere analysis!I should clarify however, that I wasn’t trying to cherrypick stats, simply summarize a couple of the categories that seem to be driving the argument.Nor am I a Jones hater.I’ve said before that I don’t know that Winnick adds enough value in 2-way play to offset Jones’ offence.

    First things first, I appreciate what you’ve been bringing to the discussion, Cactus. One of my favourite new-ish commenters here.

    re: “smackdown”, thanks for taking my post in the spirit intended (challenge the comment, not the commenter). I didn’t think you were cherrypicking, I just prefer aligning apples with apples (when discussing Corsi REL, use Corsi REL QoC/QoT numbers).

    With that said, I actually feel that the better substitute for Jones is probably Paajarvi.Similar offensive production, but with more upside.In 2010-11, their Magnus came out ahead in Corsi, CorsiRel and they seemed to come out around even in Quality of Competition.

    Hmmm, OK, here we go again. :) I assume you’re meaning shots when referring to offensive production, because 17 goals to 2 or 33 points to 8 doesn’t meet my criteria of “similar”. The two were much closer in 2010-11 of course. As for QualComp, Jones ranked ahead in all three metrics, including 5th in CorsiREL QoC to MP’s 10th (among 14 F with 20+ GP). Jones also had the toughest ZoneStarts of any winger on the team, and the best GA/60 of any regular on the PK. Paajarvi was tried on that unit early in the season and found wanting.

    If people really don’t want Jones, the replacement is already in the system.No need to add a contract to get it.

    Projecting into the future, Magnus “should” be a better player than Jones. But for now Jones compares pretty well by the advanced metrics, and by eye his willingness to take the play to the front of the net stands out compared to Paajarvi’s tendency to stay on the perimeter. In my view that’s the area the youngster absolutely must improve at to become an impact player. Hopefully he can learn a thing or two watching Ryan Jones. :)

  59. Bruce McCurdy says:

    RENNAVATE,

    re: Game of Thrones, has anybody else noticed how much Brienne of Tarth resembles Lennart Petrell?

  60. Ducey says:

    Gragnani signed today with the Canes.

    The Hodgson trade looks worse.

  61. TheOtherJohn says:

    Ducey

    Hodgson was not a great ball of fire in 20 games in Buffalo. While Kassian did not grab the opportunity he was given, think he was traded for his use in the big body shoving matches to come. It was just that nobody expected it to be LAK in the first round. With both of the Sedins available in that series do they have a shot at a win?

  62. Lowetide says:

    I don’t think you can get a good look at Winnik via btn this past season. As Bruce mentioned the trade makes it tough. I do think that Winnik’s 10-11 season shows a fine veteran 2-way player.

    As for Ryan Jones, he had a fine offensive season. His problem isn’t Daniel Winnik, his problem is that the scoring wingers on this team were all taken #1 overall. It’s going to be tough getting 15 minutes a night on this team for skill wingers not named Hall, Eberle, Yakupov and (I think) Smyth or Hartikainen.

    Jones was 201st overall at 5×5/60 for F’s playing 40 or more games. That puts him as the 6th or 7th best forward on an average team. Which is about where he is on the Oilers. Add in Yakupov? He got some prime time linemates this past season, suspect it’ll be tougher this coming season.

    Meanwhile, Winnik would be applying for a different job.

  63. BlacqueJacque says:

    You know, even 10 years ago, the not-so-knowledgeable fan in me would look at Taylor Hall vs Jordan Eberle and conclude that Eberle was better. Eberle was healthier, scored more, at a faster rate, and stayed out of the press box. I would pay attention to match-ups, and I might draw conclusions, but I can’t say they’d be the right ones.

    It’s funny how a few years on the internet, on hockey forums and blogs, changes one’s perspective.

  64. Cactus says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Thanks for the great feedback, both positive and constructively critical. It’s always good to get an informed discussion going. You’re also bang on with the Petrell – Brienne thing. Now I’m going to be yelling “crash the net” at the TV during season 3.

    As for the Jones/Paajarvi comparison, I should have been more explicit – I was basing my comparison solely on 2010-11. The boxcars from that year were much closer:

    Paajarvi: 80GP, 15-19-34, -13
    Jones: 81GP, 18-7-25, -5

    The reason I didn’t lose last year is not to make an easier case but rather because I’m “trading assumptions” as it were. I’m assuming 2011-12 was a negative outlier for Paajarvi (the guy shot 2.53% in the NHL – between OKC, the NHL in 2010-11 and the last two seasons at Timra he averaged 7.41%). However, in the context of this exercise, I’m trading it for the assumption that Paajarvi will take a step forward offensively from his rookie season. In other words, let’s just run with 2010-11 as the basis of comparison. Obviously, if you reject this model for comparison, what follows won’t mean much, but let’s take a look anyways.

    So let me expand on the underlying numbers that I threw out earlier (again 2010-11):
    Paajarvi: -4.76 Corsi (6th); 3.2 CorsiRel (7th) ; 7th in CorsiQoC; 10th in CorsiRelQoC
    Jones: -16.16 Corsi (15th); -11.1 (14th); 10th in CorsiQoC; 8th in CorsiRelQoC

    I look at that and say that at worst that’s close; at best, Paajarvi seems to be coming out a bit ahead. I also checked zone starts to see if that could be driving it:

    Paajarvi: 51.6% Off Zone Start
    Jones: 49.7% Off Zone Start

    So that’s about 2% difference. I’m not sure if that quite accounts for the gap between them in shots, but it’s something. Interestingly enough, they were also quite close in on ice shooting %: 7.91% for Paajarvi and 8.05% for Jones.

    Since I’ve never said no to more data, here’s two more additions from the Cult of Hockey. Neilson scoring chances plus/minus per 15 mins. as well as the average score from your game grades:

    Paajarvi: 1,62 NN+/-; 5.5 / 10 average grade
    Jones: 1.67 NN+/-; 5.3 /10 average grade

    This would seem to confirm the rest of the findings: in 2010-11, Jones and Paajarvi were pretty close in terms of overall effectiveness. Jones brings a useful physical element, which can’t be fully reflected by these numbers, but is worth noting here.

    Obviously, this data is a year old now. Since then, Paajarvi tanked at the NHL level while Jones actually improved his underlying numbers all while Renney crucified him with a 44.6% zonestart. However, if we assume that Paajarvi will at least bounce back, these two players seem pretty close to me.

    Why does this matter? It’s not just another angry numbers blog commentor trying to find yet another way to rip Ryan Jones now that Winnick has been dismissed. It’s because of the contract situation. Both of these guys are on expiring deals: Jones becomes an UFA and Paajarvi a RFA. Assuming that no trades are made and that one of Yakupov, Eberle or Hemsky can play LW, the top 6 slots are filled. I can’t claim to read Steve Tambellini’s mind but there may not be room for both these players in the bottom six next year, especially if Jones goes looking for a raise. Based on this, I’d really like to see Paajarvi get an extended look in the NHL (barring a collapse in training camp). We may find that both these players are necessary to an effective bottom six moving forward. We may find out that Paajarvi can’t cut it. Or, we may find out that we have a younger, still improving player who can take Jones’ minutes for the same or less money and get the same results.

  65. DSF says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Ducey

    Hodgson was not a great ball of fire in 20 games in Buffalo. While Kassian did not grab the opportunity he was given, think he was traded for his use in the big body shoving matches to come. It was just that nobody expected it to be LAK in the first round. With both of the Sedins available in that series do they have a shot at a win?

    Hodgson was hugely sheltered in Vancouver but was exposed in Buffalo.

    Kassian is only 21 so we shouldn’t have expected him to be a difference maker in the playoffs.

    With a healthy Daniel and Kesler I expect we would be looking at a different Cup champ.

    But thats the way it goes.

  66. sliderule says:

    Man I go away to play golf and nobody gives me an answer,.

    How do the fancy stats do any better than plus minus if you do a correction for just being a bad team or having bad goaltender or coach etc.

    Come on you guys!

  67. Professor Q says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Crazy that I never noticed that before!

  68. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    Man I go away to play golf and nobody gives me an answer,.

    How do the fancy stats do any better than plus minus if you do a correction for just being a bad team or having bad goaltender or coach etc.

    Come on you guys!

    Well for me it’s about clarity and context. I knew that Bobby Orr was a great player but when I found out that his D partner also had a ridiculous plus minus (first publishing I saw was 1975, just before Orr’s career died) then I thought the Bruins had two great defenders.

    Time taught me that a lot of plus minus is team and teammate dependent. The magic of advanced stats is that it lets me draw back the curtains and understand–as much as I am able–the difference between Orr’s +80 and Dallas Smith’s +30/Al Sims +29.

    And the meter clicks that got them to those numbers.

  69. TheOtherJohn says:

    WG

    Think one year Orr was +129. Course his partner carried him

  70. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Cactus: In other words, let’s just run with 2010-11 as the basis of comparison.

    OK, that at least explains where you’re coming from. As you say Paajarvi took a big step backward in 2011-12, and we can only hoPe it was a negative outlier. Seems probable.

    Also as you say, Jones took a big step forward in 2011-12, better results at evens with tougher zone starts against tougher comp, and creditable performance on both special teams esp. the PK. Of course he still falls down a lot …

    Lowetide: It’s going to be tough getting 15 minutes a night on this team for skill wingers not named Hall, Eberle, Yakupov and (I think) Smyth or Hartikainen.

    … or Hemsky! Oilers are loaded with skill on the flanks. I think we’ll see Jones on the fourth line when everybody is healthy, with the ability to step up when needed, and on either wing. That’s pretty much what he did last year, with reasonable success by many metrics. I’m not convinced he’s done improving yet either, though as you say his opportunities will be limited. Fortunately he seems to have taken to the role of utility infielder.

  71. Bruce McCurdy says:

    I’ll bet Dallas Smith had great Corsi numbers as well.

  72. Professor Q says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    However lots of Oilers fall down a lot – and with an excellent coach in Serdachny, is it the ice surface alone or some other variables?

  73. sliderule says:

    Ok LT I am ok that you will have more or less the same plus minus as your defensive partner or line mate even if you are not carrying the load.
    How are the fancy stats any different.If hypothetically of course I am Halls line mate and play every shift with him unless I step off the ice at the wrong time I should have same plus minus ,corsi and zone starts.
    What I am trying to say you have to evaluate the line mates for every player and I haven’t seen the stats that do this.
    If you partner with Weber or Hall you will look good and that’s were the eyes come in.

  74. Lowetide says:

    Forgot Ales. Dear Me.

    Based on this graph
    http://www.leftwinglock.com/line-combos/index.php?season=2011&team=EDM&strength=EV&playertype=F&gametype=ALL#A

    Jones played most often with Horcoff-Smyth (6.06) then Hopkins-Eberle (2.32) then Gagner-Belanger (2.22) then Belanger-Smyth (2.19). Now this is overall %, not just for Jones. Which of these combinations would we consider 4th line?

  75. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    Ok LTI am ok that you will have more or less the same plus minus as your defensive partner or line mate even if you are not carrying the load.
    How are the fancy stats any different.If hypothetically of course I am Halls line mate and play every shift with him unless I step off the ice at thewrong time I should have same plus minus ,corsi and zone starts.
    What I am trying to say you have to evaluate the line mates for every player and I haven’t seen the stats that do this.
    If you partner with Weber or Hall you will look goodand that’s were the eyes come in.

    But that doesn’t really happen. For instance, we can have a long look at Eberle when Hall was out and ask all kinds of questions. We know that Renney gave the kids a push in zone starts but that as the year wore on keeping them away from tougher opposition was impossible.

    ALL of those things change the picture and NONE of them are available. I’m not saying the numbers are perfect but they do offer us some genuinely useful information imo.

  76. TheOtherJohn says:

    Bruce

    Seriously wonder if Orr would have blown hockey analytics mind: do very very good things when you have the puck and take away from opponent when they had the puck. Very good team. Underperformed for their talent

  77. Cactus says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Yeah, I was rushing that first post and I realized after the fact that it probably wasn’t clear enough. I wanted to get a good supply of comparable data and I will happily assert that Paajarvi’s 2011-12 season in the NHL was an outlier. 2.53 shooting %? That’s not happening again.

  78. speeds says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    WG

    Think one year Orr was +129. Course his partner carried him

    +124 in 70/71. The next closest teammate was at +94, then +71, +71, and +59, which were the 5 highest +/- in the NHL that season. I think that’s an NHL record, but don’t quote me on that.

    *edit* That is an NHL record:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plus-minus

  79. Bruce McCurdy says:

    The +124 is an NHL record, closely followed by Larry Robinson’s +120 in 1976-77. Wayne Gretzky topped out at a measly +98.

    The top five plus players on one team is Not an NHL record. The 1976-77 Habs had the top six. That would be the team that scored 387 goals and allowed 171 while posting a 60-8-12 record. Utterly dominant.

  80. Lowetide says:

    One thing that we have to remember is that 70-71 was an expansion season that followed a major expansion four years previous to that. So the league was 14 deep, 8 of them expansion clubs. Still a crazy, crazy number.

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