RE 12-13: ALES HEMSKY

Ales Hemsky was the most exciting player on the ice most of the time 02-10. Now,  he may not be the most exciting player on his line! However, he’s an important member of the offense and when healthy can deliver impressively.

RE 12-13: 60, 14-40-54

  1. This is healthy? This is reasonable. Ales Hemsky has played in 70 or more games twice since the lockout, and that was awhile ago. He played in 69 in 11-12 but he wasn’t right.
  2. He wasn’t good last year. Hemsky delivered exactly the season we should expect from him as his career begins to wind down. 69, 10-26-36 and a shooting percentage of 7.3–the first time in his career he was under 10%.
  3. And yet you’re thrilled with the new contract? Sure. Hemsky should be healthy in the fall and if he is Edmonton will have an amazing assortment of offensive options. Good arrows next season.
  4. Eberle has passed him. Eberle had an outstanding season, but Hemsky faced tougher opposition and was one of the veterans who helped ease the kids into the NHL over the last 2 years. Eberle will have “passed” Hemsky when he plays the tougher opposition and is on the plus side of things while doing so. That hasn’t happened  yet, as wonderfully shown by the Vollman Sledgehammer.
  5. He was off badly last season. Why do you think he’ll rebound? Before last season, Hemsky was very consistent–his 5×5/60 by year since 06-07 were 2.09, 2.36, 2.08, 2.85, 2.88. With the added help up front and what looks like better health, I think he’ll have his best season since 08-09.
  6. Did you know the season you’re projecting is almost identical to his 06-07 season? No, didn’t see it until after I wrote down all of the RE’s.
  7. You have them all done? Yes.
  8. How many goals do they score in your model? About 10% more than last season.
  9. Doesn’t seem like a lot. Oilers have replaced Omark with Yakupov up front and very little else. Yakupov will take some of Ryan Smyth’s time, but I have the increase in offense going almost entirely to the young guns–specifically Hall and the Nuge.
  10. Seems reasonable. Who does Hemsky play with? I have him with Gagner and Hall. That should end up being the de facto tough minutes line.
  11. Who can he play with? Strongest matches are Horcoff, Gagner and Smyth. Hemsky is still capable of making other players better in the offensive zone. So that means anyone would benefit, although he is a player who apparently takes some getting used to (based on previous verbal from other players). Lots of ad-lib.
  12. Will they get the ZS push? Yes, although I think the other skill line (Nuge-Yak-Eberle) will probably get a bigger push. We’ll see. I can also see Hall playing on the other line and Hartikainen might be in there somewhere too. Lots of options.
  13. What about Paajarvi? We’re getting there, lets stay the course.
  14. Why do you like Hemsky so much? He’s so incredible with the puck. Ales Hemsky is one of the most entertaining Oilers ever. As in “history of the team” since expansion.
  15. What was that “Kevin Lowe signs Hemsky” thing about? I have no idea, although there’s a chance that the Oilers veterans have a better feel for things with Kevin Lowe in the room. Doubt it’s a big deal, I’m just happy they got him signed.
  16. Will they trade him? I don’t think so, and this comes from someone who was convinced it would happen. Lowe seems to be staying loyal to the gifted players acquired during his time as GM–Hemsky, Gagner, Pouliot. :-)
  17. Why do Oiler fans dislike him so? Hemsky is not a dump and chase type and a significant portion of the fanbase considers the Ryan Smyth style to be representative of the way hockey should be played.
  18. The team that boasted Gretzky and Coffey doesn’t like the dipsy-doodle? Well, a significant portion of the fanbase likes their scorers to be Ryan Smyth.
  19. Will they ever like him? I believe that Eric T is doing God’s work in this area. Tulsky probably didn’t set out to save Ales Hemsky but the evidence is there all the same.
  20. So Oiler fans will begin to love Hemsky through math? Isn’t the world a wonderful place?

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56 Responses to "RE 12-13: ALES HEMSKY"

  1. ItsTheBGB says:

    We’re never going to get it through some people’s heads that advanced stats are legit, they’ll be against it to their death. The people who eventually do embrace it will have such a better understanding for the game. It sometimes hurts to listen to my friends and family talk about the game with what they think they see and have no clue about what actually happens. I bite my tongue so I don’t come off as too big of a dick, though!

  2. Matt.N says:

    ItsTheBGB,

    I don’t use math or any short forms like corsi or zone starts. I like to present hypotheticals.

    “If you were up by a goal against SJ and having a face off in your own end against Joe Thornton, who would you want to put out there , Nuge or Horcoff?”

    If the answer is Horcoff, imagine if all of his time on ice was started by taking a d zone face off against the others best player. How would that affect his ability to score?

  3. PunjabiOil says:

    13.What about Paajarvi? We’re getting there, lets stay the course.

    LOLLLLL

    Fantastic writing

  4. Germoil says:

    ItsTheBGB,

    Anyone know of a site that would be an ‘introduction to advanced hockey stats’ type of deal. Interested in picking up a few things.

  5. Lucinius says:

    I’ll admit to being a big Hemsky fan and likely having more than a bit of bias on the player, but..

    He remains my favourite Oiler and, I think, the most important one. Why? Well, because while the fab four are going to be better players (especially if they stay healthy), Hemsky right now is a player that allows the “other” line to get softer minutes than they would otherwise, especially if paired with Hall. Because Hemsky and Hall are capable of taking on tough minutes and outscoring the opposition it puts teams in a difficult situation, even when the Oilers are on the road. Do you put your shut down pair/line out against Nuge/Eberle or Hall/Hemsky? Whichever one you give even slightly easier opposition runs the risk of running the table all game long.

    Hemsky does have his faults, of course, even beyond injury. He plays the tough areas (despite what the masses in Edmonton like to think), hence why he’s gotten so injury riddled. He also has a bit of an attitude — there was a reason Regehr wanted to kill him every time we played Calgary.

    Another ‘fault’ is the fact he’s a purely instinct/skill player; hence why he’s harder to play with than other players, and why it seems like every other offensive rush is an offside. He also suffers from the ‘if only he had a bit more time..’ on his rushes. The sheer number of ‘almost scored a top ten highlight reel goal’ is staggering.

    If he can stay healthy and play 70 games this season I expect a lot of fans to remember just why he was THE Oiler for eight years to watch.

    Oh, and he can be surprisingly good defensively. I still get annoyed he never got the PK time he should have years ago, as he actually showed promise at the skill, but was dumped in favour of ‘pure defensive’ type players like Moreau.

  6. Chris Hext---formerly EasyOil--- says:

    ItsTheBGB,

    Whilst not a “maths guy” (I sucked at maths in school), I am a believer in advanced stats. That said, it HAS to be used in conjunction with what you see on the ice, but I do see what your saying. The one thing that sprang to mind yesterday when reading the Eberle RE, was the number of people who think his shooting % won’t regress because “he has an elite shot, like top 5 in the league”… No-one ever said Eberle didn’t have a good-to-great shot, but there HAS to be an established level of ability, and we haven’t got there yet. Not that I expect Eberle to have a similar career, but see Joe Juneau. One year should never define a player.

  7. Ryan says:

    I think it’s more a case of fans finding him frustrating than disliking him. Me? I always found his trademark dipsy doodle just short of the blue line frustrating. Other than getting the offside call, not sure what he’s trying to create with that play.

    I also started to find his work on the pp a little frustrating before the arrival of the gifted kids. Not like he had many options, but he always seemed to run the clock down on the half wall either looking for the shot from the point or try to thread the puck thru too many players for a back door attempt that often led to a turnover.

    Another common theme in the past was fans wanting him to shoot more particularly since he often played with Whiffcough. Other than that he’s been branded as lazy and a perceived underachiever probably because of his stoic appearance much like Penner.

    To me, a playmaker who’s difficult to play with sounds like an oxymoron. In contrast, kids like Eberle or Nuge aren’t afraid of switching things up and just making the simple play instead of a low percentage pass.

    All that being said, Hemsky’s a great hockey player and hopefully he has a rebound season. He’s carried the team offensively for years and suffered thru 3 number one picks in a row.

    It wasn’t too long ago where he was really the only value contract on the team. Collectively he’s been a bargain over his career.

  8. Ryan says:

    Germoil:
    ItsTheBGB,

    Anyone know of a site that would be an ‘introduction to advanced hockey stats’ type of deal. Interested in picking up a few things.

    You’re already in the right place. Just ask questions. This site is where I picked up everything I know of advanced stats.

  9. Ryan says:

    Lucinius,

    Back when I had an oilers blog, I made the case that the oilers should have used Hemsky on the pk like NYR were using Gaborik. Penner was getting some PK minutes and was doing solid work iirc. However, Penner was just deployed for a defensive role.

    It will be interesting to see if Krueger gives some PK minutes to Hemsky or Hall. Having a legit scoring threat on the PK with speed can create real problems for a PP.

    Yeah, that extra move just short of the blue line that would result in an offside used to drive me crazy too. Perhaps Hemsky just doesn’t have that level of on ice awareness of the Nuge for where his teammates are. Who does though?

  10. Lucinius says:

    Ryan:
    I also started to find his work on the pp a little frustrating before the arrival of the gifted kids.Not like he had many options, but he always seemed to run the clock down on the half wall either looking for the shot from the point or try to thread the puck thru too many players for a back door attempt that often led to a turnover.

    I’ll just say that in regards to the powerplay, the complaints on Hemsky have driven me to many a rant with friends and colleagues. Watch the powerplay while he’s on the half-wall eating up time. There’s a very distinct reasoning for it; he’s trying to draw players to him (which he usually does — sometimes 2-3) and trying to open up a passing lane because everyone else on his powerplay unit stands fucking still.

    Its insane to watch; you have one guy doing his half-wall work and everyone else just waiting for him to get them the puck because moving is too much work or something. The arrival of the wonder kids made the powerplay so much better because it injected MOVING players to the powerplay (and moving players with a phenomenal amount of skill, at that).

    Hall, Eberle, Nuge all move around on the powerplay. Gagner, Horcoff, Belanger the various D we’ve tried (except Petry) not so much. Penner was iffy depending on game.

    I was always amazed Hemsky didn’t scream aloud after a bad powerplay of his line mates just standing around.

    Additionally, his loyalty to Edmonton deserves some attention as well. He could of easily left in free agency this summer and gotten well above 5 million. But he stayed, even after the shit show this place has been since 06.

  11. Lucinius says:

    Yeah, that extra move just short of the blue line that would result in an offside used to drive me crazy too.Perhaps Hemsky just doesn’t have that level of on ice awareness of the Nuge for where his teammates are.Who does though?

    Its an intentional thing for Hemsky. He loves the move right before the blue line because if often seems to disjoint defenders (you’ll often see one of the two step towards him when he does the blue line dangle, pulling one of them out of position for either him or a line mate to blow past). The problem is most players can’t change gears at that point; either physically or mentally. Its one reason Penner and Smyth worked so well with Hemsky; they can and were able to adapt their games to it. Smyth especially so.

  12. LMHF#1 says:

    ItsTheBGB:
    We’re never going to get it through some people’s heads that advanced stats are legit, they’ll be against it to their death. The people who eventually do embrace it will have such a better understanding for the game. It sometimes hurts to listen to my friends and family talk about the game with what they think they see and have no clue about what actually happens. I bite my tongue so I don’t come off as too big of a dick,though!

    Is this post sarcasm? Because you’re not going to win any converts by demeaning everyone who doesn’t march to the drummer, nor is the understanding of the game going to improve this way.

    There are at least a couple of different “advanced” stats type people. Some who use them to enhance their understanding of the game, and some who seem to flaunt their extreme lack of understanding of the game but have their numbers and that makes them feel warm, fuzzy and indignant with anyone who disagrees with their conclusions. It is one thing to say “I understand the game better and the results of the game will prove me right” because some of us certainly do understand it better than others; it is another thing entirely to act as some (not all, and certainly not most of the better commenters here) stats guys do, like they have the holy grail and the non-believers shall perish.

  13. FPB94 says:

    LMHF#1,

    But… but… you have no arms left!

  14. LMHF#1 says:

    The fundamental problem that people seem to have with #83 are the lost pucks in and entering the offensive zone. The things they don’t seem to notice are, A) The puck is nearly always lost trying to make a play that if completed would result in a scoring chance at minimum and B) The puck is not lost in such a way that teammates are way out of position, and rarely does the opposition storm down and have a scoring chance.

    It’s not as if he’s floating pucks across the blue line and giving up breakaways, or screwing up a ten foot pass to a covered linemate, but people seem to act that way.

  15. LMHF#1 says:

    Ryan:
    Lucinius,

    Back when I had an oilers blog, I made the case that the oilers should have used Hemsky on the pk like NYR were using Gaborik.

    When we’re behind, or facing a team that has a setup or lineup that could lead to turnovers at the blue, Hemsky and Eberle should get shifts on the PK. I’d also favor doing this in games where special teams dominate and icetime gets screwed up.

  16. LMHF#1 says:

    FPB94:
    LMHF#1,

    But… but… you have no arms left!

    I have a feeling I should laugh, but I think there’s either a language issue here or a joke I’ve never heard before. Damn.

  17. FPB94 says:

    LMHF#1,

    Monty Python and the holy grail.

  18. LMHF#1 says:

    FPB94:
    LMHF#1,

    Monty Python and the holy grail.

    Not nearly as well versed in Monty Python as I am in Red Dwarf. Smeg.

  19. LoDog says:

    LMHF#1: Is this post sarcasm? Because you’re not going to win any converts by demeaning everyone who doesn’t march to the drummer, nor is the understanding of the game going to improve this way.

    There are at least a couple of different “advanced” stats type people. Some who use them to enhance their understanding of the game, and some who seem to flaunt their extreme lack of understanding of the game but have their numbers and that makes them feel warm, fuzzy and indignant with anyone who disagrees with their conclusions. It is one thing to say “I understand the game better and the results of the game will prove me right” because some of us certainly do understand it better than others; it is another thing entirely to act as some (not all, and certainly not most of the better commenters here) stats guys do, like they have the holy grail and the non-believers shall perish.

    Well said. Just using numbers is far worse than just watching the games IMO.

    And who are these people that don’t like the dipsy doodle? I don’t know any.

  20. dwillms says:

    Big-time fan and reader of the blog for a few years now. I’ve always agreed with your RE’s for players, but I have to say I think this one is off.

    Yesterday you looked at Eberle’s established 3-year level of ability. Doing the same with Hemsky averages out to 46 GP, 10-23-33 or 0.72 ppg over the past three seasons.

    I don’t feel that expecting Hemsky to play in 30% more of the team’s games or score at a 0.90 ppg pace is reasonable at all. As you mentioned, last season was “exactly the kind of season we should expect from him as his career winds down”…or in other words, what his RE should be for this season.

  21. LMHF#1 says:

    LoDog:

    And who are these people that don’t like the dipsy doodle? I don’t know any.

    Sadly there are a ton of them. They think the game is about dumping the puck, mashing it at the goalie and hitting people on the PK. They love Ryan Smyth (which I can at least understand) and Kelly Buchberger (for his hockey-playing, which I cannot understand).

  22. jonrmcleod says:

    LT, in these hypothetical arguments in your RE series, who are you debating? The pessimistic/optimistic version of yourself, an imaginary Oiler fan, or someone else? At the end of the season you should have a “REcap” series, taking a look at who won the imaginary argument.

  23. rickithebear says:

    “I believe that Eric T is doing God’s work in this area. ”

    is that the 3% goals per shot God or the 85% goals per shot God. Cause well one God is 28 times more successful than the other God.

    And which God favors pocession and which favors Dump and Chase.

    And which God is more successful at goals. cause goals are all that matters!

  24. Bar_Qu says:

    Blasted Hemsky. The season hasn’t started yet and I can already hear the calls for him to shoot the puck already.

    rickithebear,

    I find you confusing.

  25. "Steve Smith" says:

    rickithebear,

    I find you confusing.

    Ricki finds statheads’ focus on shots (both SOG and the broader definitions that Corsi and Fenwick use) to be misplaced, because not all shots have an equal chance of going in. Ricki finds the fact that some players have higher shooting percentages than others to be proof that some players’ shots are more valuable than others, and that stats that aggregate shots on a team-wide basis are therefore useless. Ricki understands neither sample sizes nor cum hoc ergo propter hoc.

  26. Moosemess says:

    “Steve Smith”: Ricki finds statheads’ focus on shots (both SOG and the broader definitions that Corsi and Fenwick use) to be misplaced, because not all shots have an equal chance of going in.Ricki finds the fact that some players have higher shooting percentages than others to be proof that some players’ shots are more valuable than others, and that stats that aggregate shots on a team-wide basis are therefore useless.Ricki understands neither sample sizes nor cum hoc ergo propter hoc.

    Latin is a dead language and people who use it in casual conversation typically come across as pretentious at best or pompous at worst. Admittedly, that’s based on a small sample size.

  27. "Steve Smith" says:

    Moosemess,

    I don’t speak Latin, but “cum hoc ergo propter hoc” has been subsumed into English.

    (Your comment was hilarious, though.)

  28. Moosemess says:

    Correlation does not imply causation.

    Upside – easily understood.
    Downside – lacks the elitist flair so desirable to aspiring lawyers and/or RPG enthusiasts

  29. "Steve Smith" says:

    Moosemess,

    I don’t think cum hoc is any less easily understood than your formulation (and it’s more precise), but I’m also not sure that the discussion is moving in a useful direction. Given that my policy is to participate in non-useful discussions only where I see the opportunity to make remarks that I consider hilarious, I will disengage.

    You dink.

  30. Moosemess says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    Moosemess,

    I don’t think cum hoc is any less easily understood than your formulation (and it’s more precise), but I’m also not sure that the discussion is moving in a useful direction.Given that my policy is to participate in non-useful discussions only where I see the opportunity to make remarks that I consider hilarious, I will disengage.

    I don’t think it’s unfair to say that a common theme in your posts is an affinity for rhetoric and pointing out the grammatical or linguistic peccadillos of your fellow posters. That’s all I’m doing here.

    As is often the case however, this seems like one of those instances where the person who likes to poke fun at others doesn’t like ‘a taste of their own medicine.’ Or is that idiom too banal for your tastes?

  31. "Steve Smith" says:

    Moosemess,

    I re-engage only to add the following: you may have mistaken my first reply to you (re: your post being hilarious) for sarcasm. It was not.

  32. Bushed says:

    Funny that the “dipsy doodle” critics forget that Gretz was pretty good at it, and Kurri once said he started getting successful on that line when he quit thinking about HOW the puck would get to him and just focused on getting to open ice. Perhaps Hemmer needs someone to think that way.

    Have also noticed that on many of his sorties, linemates can’t seem to keep up to Hemsky’s speed, so he is then forced to try to beat three or four guys one-on-one while he waits for teammates to arrive.

    That’s just by observation, though; if someone has a dipsy-doodle zone start/finish quotient or some such measure, feel free to comment.

  33. OilClog says:

    Hemsky is still our best forward, reading that people believe a 29yr old is in the downfall of his career is baffling. The injuries suck, and the discontent between renney and himself was clear to anyone watching. If he can play close to a full season, probably end up leadin the team in scoring. Yet for some it will never be enough.

  34. bookje says:

    Moosemess,

    Don’t worry, Ralph Krueger will fix Steve Smith!

    Edit: I mean ‘Chuck’ Krueger!

  35. jonrmcleod says:

    bookje,

    Does Krueger have the ability to go back in time and prevent Steve Smith’s own goal?

  36. Moosemess says:

    Back to the topic at hand. Health willing, I’m hoping for a big rebound year from Hemsky and suspect Oil mgmt. would still dearly love to trade him at the deadline to fill one of their roster holes with a player that’s more ‘nucleus age appropriate.’

    Further, there’s absolutely zero evidence to support the claim that teams would’ve lined up to sign Ales as an FA to a more lucrative contract than the one the Oil gifted him with. Sure, his counting stats can support the argument but NHL GMs do shy away from injury prone players and I think it’s reasonable to conclude that would’be been a significant factor impacting Hemmer’s perceived market value. Now if he can actually stay healthy for an entire season….and so can Ryan Whitney, and Khabibulin has a bounce back year….etc.

    Wow, Oil mgmt really seem to specialize in wishful thinking. I wonder if they’re holding a ton of RIM stock at the moment?

  37. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Bushed: Funny that the “dipsy doodle” critics forget that Gretz was pretty good at it, and Kurri once said he started getting successful on that line when he quit thinking about HOW the puck would get to him and just focused on getting to open ice. Perhaps Hemmer needs someone to think that way.

    One tiny part of Gretzky’s genius was an ability to get the puck over the blueline before the dipsy doodle. Oftentimes he’d just thrust the puck about an inch over the blueline, then pull it back and make the next couple of touches right on the line itself (which was now part of the offensive zone once the puck had initially crossed it) while his teammates looked for the open ice. Very very few plays wound up in offside whistles with Gretzky in control of the puck, and when it did it was as apt to be a linesman’s mistake as an Oilers’ one.

    Hemsky does not have that particular skill. That said, few do.

  38. Ducey says:

    Bookje!

    Welcome back from Steve Smith land.

  39. godot10 says:

    Hemsky is a pitcher with a fantastic fastball, who hasn’t realized that if he learned to throw the change-up, would make his fastball on par with the greatest fastballs ever.

    He thinks throwing a change-up is beneath him, and that has hurt his career statistically and health-wise.

    Guy Lafleur-like potential gone to waste…well, maybe not waste, but basically to mediocrity, considering his potential.

    Hemsky would have been amongst the elite of the elite in the naughts decade if Scotty Bowman or Mike Babcock had been his coach early in his career.

    I say a prayer every September for God to strike Hemsky with a bolt of lighting on the road to Rexall, and tell him that it is okay to chip-and-chase occassionally, and that it is okay to shoot the puck occassionally.

  40. bookje says:

    godot10:
    Hemsky is a pitcher with a fantastic fastball, who hasn’t realized that if he learned to throw the change-up, would make his fastball on par with the greatest fastballs ever.

    Wow, I didn’t know that. As much as I hate to say it, the guy should probably look at Major League Baseball for his career. Given his injury history in hockey and the amount of money he could make as a pitcher, it would probably be a wise career move. He could make 2 times the money and likely have a longer career. He would also have the distinction of being the first Czech player in MLB (there were a couple of Slovaks in the 1950s). If I were his agent, I would tell him to forget hockey, work on that change up, and get signed. As a fan, I sure hope he doesn’t go, but I can’t see why he wouldn’t.

  41. TheOtherJohn says:

    Hemsky is a very good hockey player and has been playing for the bulk of his career with players who are not elite scorers. Expect if he played in Chicago or Pittsburgh people would be talking about his creativity. Instead he has been passing to Shawn Horcoff and his ilk, also a good hockey player, who are not offensively talented. Always thought Jeff Carter would be perfect centre for Hemsky, one looks to pass, the other never passes up a shot.

    I think Hemsky playing with Hall, and possibly Yak, could exceed your RE by 10-15 assists because they both love to shoot. Hemsky/ alas, not so much

  42. bendelson says:

    OilClog,

    Umm, no he isn’t. I should probably say that more eloquently and back that up with some fancy stats… No he isn’t, you jackass. :)

    Don’t be baffled! It’s predicated on the deteriorating point totals and a well established inability to stay healthy.

    If Hemsky leads the team in scoring this season good for him. Unfortunately this would likely be bad news for the point totals of the first line of Eberle, Hall and RNH.

    I now open the forum for all the Hemsky apologists arounds these parts to take shots at Bendelson, for clearly, I don’t have clue what I’m talking about (and am probably an asshole!)

    For the record, I like the player when he is actually on his game – I just stopped making excuses for him when he’s not…

    I can’t recall a more frustrating Oiler.

  43. TheOtherJohn says:

    Vollman Sledgehammer stats (no clue what Sledgehammer refers to??) quite likes Hemsky n/w/s that 12,000 fans at Rexall routinely yell “shoot” whenever Hemsky touchs the puck , even in our own end

  44. Moosemess says:

    bendelson:
    OilClog,

    I can’t recall a more frustrating Oiler.

    Cam Barker? Shawn Horcoff? Ryan Whitney? Sheldon Souray? Patrick O’Sullivan? Robbie ‘Shinebox’ Schremp? MA Pouliot? Robert Nillsson? Jason Arnott? Mike Comrie? Chris Pronger? Jason Bonsignore? Steve Kelly?

    That’s a mere 13 off the top of my head ; )

  45. rickithebear says:

    “Steve Smith”: 1. Ricki finds statheads’ focus on shots (both SOG and the broader definitions that Corsi and Fenwick use) to be misplaced, because not all shots have an equal chance of going in.

    2.Ricki finds the fact that some players have higher shooting percentages than others to be proof that some players’ shots are more valuable than others..

    3.and that stats that aggregate shots on a team-wide basis are therefore useless.\

    4. Ricki understands neither sample sizes

    5.nor cum hoc ergo propter hoc.

    1. I do not find the concept of Corsi or fenwick a fault..
    The Idea is a great advancment.
    The data is total shit.

    Corsi is better than straight shot count because of the inclusion of the 0% shot. but there is a variance of shot that does get to the net. they have a value of greater than 0 percent to100%
    there is no Accurate asignment of value.

    it is intended to differentiate from Save % luck.. Problem I have is giving all shots equal value is a far worse sin than the perception of Luck.

    2. Shot Quality.to me is a fallacy.
    Shot result is a function of
    a) shots that get to the net (non-zero)
    b) location of shot
    c) Path of Shot
    d) visibility of the Goalie
    e) movement of the goalie
    f) who is shooting (historical results of 5 factor sub groups.

    3. my problem with shots are they are really only tbinary values from an aggraget point of vue.
    Goal- NO goal. Establish a players value relative cummulative shot taken and given is were it is at.

    4.Sample Size:
    In the academic world as much data as possible to have accurate findings.
    in the real world find somethings performance, mean, as quickly and cheaply as possible.

    So when you look at 5 years of player data in a group of subsets relative to the x-y values you can establish a bubble size for that situation. the Mean.

    As i turned to former accademic who works on theoretical distance protection for electrical systems in our company.
    The real world person in you says, “we have eqamples of a piece of equipment failing 60% of the time in a situation we have. You are happy for the 6 pieces of Data. the academic in you would want 500 so you can say it fails 63% of the time.

    5. I do not speak latin, have not studied rhetoric extensively. i do understand that just because b occurs relative to A does not mean A causes B. the nice thing about situational data. The more sub set the less chance of saying A causes B.

  46. Moosemess says:

    Shite. Can’t believe I forgot Shayne Corson in that list. Guarantee George Burnett wouldn’t have.

  47. rickithebear says:

    Sport is to be analyzed in pocession approach. 1st phase, 2nd phase, 3rd phase

    Eric’s presentauion is a Sure as shit Sherlock moment.
    Carrying a puck into the zone is a 1st phase action.
    Dumping a puck in is a giving up the puck (1st pahse0 and attempting to get pocession again. (2nd Phase)

    eric has shown us a1st phase zone entry will get twice as many shots as a 2nd phase puck retrieval. No shit Sherlock. but are the zone entry shots perimeter shots (low %) and are the puck retrieval shot down low in the circles (high %)

    But the analysis is pretty much useless.
    hockey is about give and get.
    I want to know the turnover rate and odd man rush results from 1st pahse zone entry versus dump and chase. Goals given versus goals against.
    Dump and chase is predicated on a down low shot/turnover being more successful than a pocession entry goal differential wise. Goals!

  48. bendelson says:

    Moosemess,

    Unless you have come up with a statistical formula for objectively gauging my personal frustration level with individual hockey players… I fear will will have to disagree.

  49. russ99 says:

    I’d love to see Ales play all 82 and prove a lot of people wrong with a near point per game season.

    And can I make yet another case for a Yakupov – Hall – Hemsky line? Hall’s the chance-creator and defenseman shredder, Hemsky the dangler and sublime passer and Yakupov the one-timer king. Could even see 100 goals from that line.

    Otherwise, I’d put Hemmer at RW on a Hall – Gagner line, not as good, but still tons of scoring potential.

    I think everyone can agree that the glory days of Smyth – Horcoff – Hemsky are long over.

    And as for #17, count me way out. With this many dynamic and creative forwards on one team, dump and chase/cycle endlessly AKA Renney’s style should be way off the menu.

  50. Henry says:

    Is there any word on Omark’s deadline to sign his qualifying agreement and/or his deal to another club? Thought it was extended to today.

  51. commonfan14 says:

    Henry: And can I make yet another case for a Yakupov – Hall – Hemsky line?

    Maybe I’m simple, but why not just throw all three #1 picks on a line together and watch the world burn?

    Too obscene? Would the hockey gods strike them all down?

    Has such a thing ever happened before, even in an all-star game or the Olympics?

  52. Kris11 says:

    rickithebear: 1. I do not find the concept of Corsi or fenwick a fault..
    The Idea is a great advancment.
    The data is total shit.

    Corsi is better than straight shot count because of the inclusion of the 0% shot. but there is a variance of shot that does get to the net. they have a value of greater than 0 percent to100%
    there is no Accurate asignment ofvalue. …

    3. my problem with shots are they are really only tbinary values from an aggraget point ofvue.
    Goal- NO goal. Establish a players value relative cummulative shot taken and given is were it is at. …

    5. I do not speak latin, have not studied rhetoric extensively.i do understand that just because b occurs relative to A does not mean A causes B. the nice thing aboutsituational data. The more sub set the less chance ofsaying A causes B.

    You do not speak English.

  53. Bar_Qu says:

    rickithebear,

    I still find you confusing.

    Doesn’t a data sample of total shots give a better result than 14 different subsets of shot divided by “quality”? The first is a bit of an anvil, with no subtlety, but the second would seem to have wild swings simply b/c the recorded values would be so low (player X might only have 4 shots from a specific area all season).

    I dunno, it all seems a bit of discerning angels on pinheads, if you know what I mean. Not that I want to stop you, but I hope this conveys my lack of comprehension.

  54. hunter1909 says:

    Wasn’t Hemsky put together with Hall+RNH for about 5 games before Nuge went out to injury? And during that span looked incredible?

    Fuck with the “oh he’s this or that player…stick him with great players and see him shine – return him to the Smyth/Horcoff gulag and, well…rinse and repeat.

  55. rickithebear says:

    Bar_Qu:
    rickithebear,

    I still find you confusing.

    Doesn’t a data sample of total shots give a better result than 14 different subsets of shot divided by “quality”? The first is a bit of an anvil, with no subtlety, but the second would seem to have wild swings simply b/c the recorded values would be so low (player X might only have 4 shots from a specific area all season).

    I dunno, it all seems a bit of discerning angels on pinheads, if you know what I mean. Not that I want to stop you, but I hope this conveys my lack of comprehension.

    you are correct. but repeated yearly data gets you a standard.

  56. "Steve Smith" says:

    rickithebear,

    Do you notice how a given player’s abilities fluctuate wildly from season to season when measured using your system? Does that not make you the least bit suspicious that you might be full of shit?

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