RE 12-13: JORDAN EBERLE

Jordan Eberle is an Oiler in the same way Ryan Smyth or Kevin Lowe are Oilers: the copper and blue fans took to them immediately and the feeling appeared to be mutual. I don’t honestly know if the Oilers could trade Jordan Eberle right this minute if they wanted to: the backlash would be a tsunami.

RE 12-13: 75, 24-31-55

  1. What about the second half of the season? This is “reasonable” expectations. You can’t assume Eberle will improve or even match last year’s 78, 34-42-76. If he scores 90 points, fabulous. This entire exercise is about establishing reasonable expectations.
  2. What is Eberle’s established level? You need 3 seasons, so let’s NHLE his final junior season (82, 22-24-46). That doesn’t punish him for injury but it gives us 3 seasons to work with as a projection. If we add that number to his NHL seasons and divide by 3, then you get 76, 25-30-55.
  3. And that’s where you have him. Yes. I think there is a real danger for Eberle after a season in which he’s enjoyed an 18.9% shooting percentage but there’s every chance his 11.4% SP as a rookie was low. So if he shoots 180 times this coming season and scores at a 12% clip that would be 21.6 goals. I think that’s about right.
  4. Will fans turn on him? How can they? Jesus, the guy was taken 22nd overall in 2008 and since then broke records on the international stage at the world juniors, had a fine rookie season and followed it up with what could be his career season. Eberle ranks 2nd in the entire 2008 entry draft in goals scored.
  5. How good has he been in the first two seasons? Josh Bailey is third in goals from the 2008 draft and has the same point total (actually one more point). The difference? Eberle did it in HALF the time!
  6. He’s not going to have the career Hall, Nuge and Yak will enjoy. Probably not, but he’s going to trump Sam Gagner and that guy was a lottery pick.
  7. What do you like most about him? Eberle has a Steve Shutt sixth sense (we’ve talked about this before) plus he’s wicked smart. He is a dynamite passer–this is an underrated skill–and his shot is quick, accurate and deadly. It might become his signature item, despite all the passing ability and puck wizardry. He has eyes in the back of his head, his passes have pace, his shot still surprises two years in.
  8. And yet you see him taking a major step back? No, not true. I’d suggest that last season might be the outer marker for him offensively based on what we know. Now, if Eberle pops 85 points this season then we can begin to move the marker. Until then, I think 50 points is a solid expectation for him.
  9. So, Gagner. No, I’d say he is a better hockey player than Gagner (although I like them both and they have some duplicate skills). If there were an expansion draft and both were available, one suspects Eberle would get picked.
  10. He’ll scored 75 points and make you look silly. Again, we have to go back to the nature of RE. We’re not trying to pick the outer marker, the career season. Eberle’s NHLE last season (82, 22-30-52) is exactly the same as this year’s reasonable expectation.
  11. Which is crazy. Why? We don’t have an established level of ability, he improved season over season by 33 points and there are indicators like shooting percentage that imply he won’t repeat.
  12. He’s a chance machine. No, Hall is the chance machine. That guy is like heroin. Eberle is the cerebral player, the guy who changes angles to get a better look, who uses those quick, sweet hands to kill a goalie in a heartbeat.
  13. Hall isn’t the finisher Eberle is. Agreed. If I had one breakaway to win it all, Eberle is my man. But to start the game? I’m betting Hall. At some point, the average becomes less important when #4 is flying two sorties a shift.
  14. So, then the SP should be better than you’re implying. And maybe it is! But it isn’t reasonable to assume it. Eberle is in some outstanding company two seasons into his career. We can’t expect him to sustain it. It simply isn’t reasonable.
  15. Fine. Who should he play with? I’ll say Nuge and either Hall or Yakupov. If Krueger can get enough offensive zone starts for Nuge-Ebs then that duo should have a great deal of success.
  16. Can he score 40? I really don’t know. Was this a career year? He’s got that big brain and some kind of internal slide rule that allows him to fracture the defense and find corners and seams–was it luck? I don’t think so. Maybe a better question would be “how MUCH of this season was luck and how much was his unique skill set married to comfort level with the speed of the game?”
  17. Your RE says “not much?” Wrong. The RE says he was rolling well with the die and we know he’s good. Was he 33 points better year over year? Boy, you better be sure before telling everyone he’ll score 35 every year.
  18. What can he be? Eberle has a chance to be a complete player-type, helping his team win and playing big minutes at evens, PK and PP. Cerebral, adjusts well. He’s a splendid young player. It’s important to remember he displayed a wide range of skills as a rookie and then built on them in year 2, becoming an NHLer of national prominence. Jordan Eberle may end up being that rare player who can help a team win in many situations.
  19. What can we expect this season? I think he’s at a point where we might expect him to take on more difficult situations in terms of zone starts and qual comp. Some of that happened automatically and if the club uses Yakupov at LW then Eberle may benefit again from the soft parade and a zone push. Sooner or later, he’ll be the man on RW.
  20. He’s already the man on RW. No, that job belongs to our next profile. No worries, Eberle will wear the crown soon.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

50 Responses to "RE 12-13: JORDAN EBERLE"

  1. Bar_Qu says:

    Why do you hate Eberle? ;-)

    David Staples is making an argument on Twitter that Ebs with RNH means high percentage of point conversion. I will leave that argument to the pointy heads, but it appeals to the irrational optimist in me.

    I am hoping 30-30-60 for my favorite player.

  2. Kris11 says:

    Yeah, some people are going to insist you’re an Eberle hater with that RE.

    I’d remind them that a guy who scores 20-30 goals a year most years (with a career year or horrible slump here or there) is a solid first-line player. (If he can do it in toughish contexts) Eberle might be more than that (he’ll have a chance to prove it) but he’s excellent even if meets that RE.

  3. bill needle says:

    I wouldn’t take too much stock in these numbers. Oilers fans are still waiting for Hemsky’s 90-point season predicted years ago. This year, they’ll feel lucky if he gets to 50 games, let alone 50 points.

  4. yawto says:

    We talk about outer markers and looking at them on the bad side is no fun. So, am I the only one who when he looks at Eberle sees Martin St. Louis. An under height nhler who is a beast on the ice with or without the puck. I think Eberle has the potential to be just as good over a career with as much success internationally and a little more in the NHL.

  5. hunter1909 says:

    Most NHL players hack and bang away whenever they’re anywhere near the net, such is their lack of high level scoring skill. Eberle never does any of that, because like Shutt, Bossy, or Brett Hull, he is capable of taking the extra second it takes to make everything look easy.

    He’s elite. Deal with it.

    PS: Here’s the best example I can think of – Even Flames fans love Eberle.

  6. Lowetide says:

    The internet has taught me many things. One of them is that my view of reasonable is quite different than some.

  7. "Steve Smith" says:

    Bar_Qu:I am hoping 30-30-60 for my favorite player.

    So am I. Unfortunately, my favourite player is Ladislav Smid.

  8. bookje says:

    Krueger will fix Eberle.

  9. "Steve Smith" says:

    bookje:
    Krueger will fix Eberle.

    I hope Eberle doesn’t suffer any ill effects from it; my cat was out of commission for a couple of days when they did it to him.

  10. DBO says:

    I hope Eberle and RNH get the Sedin treatment. Gravy minutes, tons of offensive zone starts. Hall can drive the bus anywhere, so he will anchor the other line, and get the tough minutes, which is why I think 35 goals form Hall against the other teams top checkers will be great, allowing Eberle to get his 35 the easier way, and save his energy for the PK and PP. Both Hall and Ebs get 35, Nuge comes in at 25, and we need one more 25 goal scorer to have 2 dominant line pairs.

    Hall-Yakupov?
    Nuge-Eberle

    The foundation of a great top 2 lines.

  11. fuzzy muppet says:

    I know that everyone loves The RNH-Ebs pairing, but from what I’ve seen/read, Yakupov might be the best fit with the sweet passes RNH will be throwing. Wicked, wicked shot.

    Maybe he’ll take to LW quickly and they can all play together…SQUEEEEE

  12. Rondo says:

    Have you been following Derek Zona post re: Eberle ?

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2012/7/29/3196635/pk-subban-is-a-bad-person-and-oel-is-a-wimp

    He favors trading Eberle for a #1 defender is a no-brainer

  13. jonrmcleod says:

    Taking into account the “Kreuger Factor,” I think all RE’s should be increased by 2-10 points.

  14. jonrmcleod says:

    LT, speaking of Kreuger, have you worked in a Seinfeld reference yet?

  15. steveb12344 says:

    Ya know i’m fine with the high SP theory, although i’m pretty sure with his skillset. He will nearly always be above average throughout his career.

    I just don’t see any way that last season could possiby be his outer marker, or career year.

    There’s the obvious thing that he’s only 22 and is highly likely to get better.

    The big thing though is last season he got those points, despite a very poor start and not much to show for his first 10 games or so. He had by far the lowest toi/60 of any of the top point producers last year. He also lacked the quality of linemates for much of the year due to injuries to 04, 93, 83 etc.

    I think it is reasonable to suggest that moving forward he will eventually get more on par with other top players in the toi dept. Thus creating more shots to help offset the SP coming down a little.

    With the addition of Yak, and a healthier Hemmer than we’ve had for a while, I don’t think he will be spending any more time on lines without 2 elite linemates to play with.

    As his young linemates get better, and more chemistry is created among them. I just don’t see any way that his production can decrease.

    I believe as long as he can stay healthy, that he will be at ar above last years mark more often then not during the prime of his career.

    I expect to see some 80-100 pt. seasons, with 65-70 as the lower marker. As long as he stays on this team, i see ne reasonable reason for this not to happen

  16. gd says:

    fuzzy muppet,

    While RNH and Ebs have great chemistry, I think that is a product of the fact that they are so good and so smart that they would have good chemistry with almost anyone. I think they should try RNH with Yak with the best of PRV and Hart on one line and reunite the Hall-Gag-Eb line. I think RNH and Yak are so talented and focused they would make that line work no matter what and I think the other line gives Gagner the best chance to elevate his game, plus it gives the option of moving Hemsky up if necessary.

  17. Kris11 says:

    “Steve Smith”: I hope Eberle doesn’t suffer any ill effects from it; my cat was out of commission for a couple of days when they did it to him.

    Your cat has improved his Corsi?

    My cat’s Corsi sucks.

  18. jonrmcleod says:

    In case anyone’s wondering, the “Krueger Factor” comment above was a joke. But from what I’ve read on this blog and others (including the comments), there are great expectations that Krueger will be able to fix several Oilers. (And “fix” might not mean what you think it means.)

  19. Lowetide says:

    Love Kruger industrial smoothing
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z6kVBGeQeR4

  20. bookje says:

    jonrmcleod,

    You can’t handle the Krueger.

  21. sliderule says:

    Eberle is going to have a high shooting percentage.

    You just have to remember all the WJC were he just buries his chances and under pressure.

    The guys like Zona who talk about trading him just don’t get it.

    He will have a Rar Whitney type career with more goals.

  22. Lowetide says:

    Sliderule: His shooting percentage might be elite, but we don’t have enough to make it an established level of ability.

    As for trading him, it isn’t an option imo. Jordan Eberle owns the town.

  23. bookje says:

    Ghosts sit around the campfire and tell Ralph Krueger stories.
    Ralph Krueger once threw a hand grenade and killed 50 people…….then it exploded
    Ralph Krueger and Superman once fought each other on a bet. The loser had to start wearing his underwear on the outside of his pants.
    Ralph Krueger can cut through a hot knife with butter
    Ralph Krueger can slam a revolving door.
    Ralph Krueger died 20 years ago, Death just hasn’t built up the courage to tell him yet.
    Ralph Krueger doesn’t call the wrong number. You answer the wrong phone.
    Ralph Krueger has a grizzly bear carpet in his room. The bear isn’t dead it is just afraid to move.
    Ralph Krueger has already been to Mars; that’s why there are no signs of life.
    Ralph Krueger is the only person that can kick you in the back of your face
    Ralph Krueger is the reason why Waldo is hiding.
    Ralph Krueger once got bit by a rattle snake…….. After three days of pain and agony ………………the rattle snake died
    Ralph Krueger once had a street named after him. But the name removed at once, because nobody crosses Ralph Krueger, and lives
    Death once had a near- Ralph Krueger experience
    Some magicans can walk on water, Ralph Krueger can swim through land.
    There is no theory of evolution. Just a list of animals Ralph Krueger allows to live.
    When Alexander Bell invented the telephone he had 3 missed calls from Ralph Krueger

  24. Dalton says:

    Does anyone know which players last year had comparable shooting% and if those percentages are normal for those players?

  25. Rondo says:

    Would you like Derek trade Eberle for OEL, Hedman, or Subban ?

  26. DSF says:

    Mike Bossy had a career regular season shooting percentage of 21.2.

    If you’re looking for a comparable…there it is.

    Alex Tanguay has the highest active shooting percentage in the league at 18.6.

    Adjusting for era and given the demonstrable skills of Eberle I think it’s far from a foregone conclusion that he is due to fall off a cliff since IMO he matches the skill of both players.

    Eberle will have a long highly productive career…much better than Hall’s and, if you’re going to trade a kid for a defenseman, Hall is a much higher risk.

  27. bookje says:

    I think my new nickname for Raplh Krueger is going to be ‘Chuck’

  28. DSF says:

    Dalton:
    Does anyone know which players last year had comparable shooting% and if those percentages are normal for those players?

    Please see above.

    Alex Tanguay had a shooting percentage of 15.5 last season…the third worst of his career.

    Eberle is right in his ballpark.

  29. jp says:

    I was expecting a RE more like 28-37-65. There’s no doubt that shooting percentage is coming down some, but I’m certainly still hoping for something north of 60 pts.

    Is the RE meant to be an over/under? You can’t think Eberle is as likely to score 35 pts in a healthy season next year as he is to score 75, right?

    I do agree generally that we may just have witnessed Eberle’s career season, and that our expectations should be for regression rather than further growth, but that still feels a little low to me.

    bill needle:
    Oilers fans are still waiting for Hemsky’s 90-point season predicted years ago. This year, they’ll feel lucky if he gets to 50 games, let alone 50 points.

    I can feel it -THIS is the year Hemsky scores 90. Tomorrows RE will confirm :)…

  30. jp says:

    Rondo:
    Would you like Derek trade Eberle for OEL, Hedman,or Subban ?

    I would.

  31. jp says:

    Dalton:
    Does anyone know which players last year had comparable shooting% and if those percentages are normal for those players?

    This article from C+B also addresses his sh%
    http://www.coppernblue.com/2012/7/25/3187139/jordan-eberle-shooting-percentage

  32. Lowetide says:

    JP: If Eberle posted 65 points, people should be thrilled! That’s not the line RE is looking for (thrilled). It’s the line in the sand where expectations are satisified. No more, no less.

  33. justDOit says:

    I’d be on board with Ebs’ shot % trending back to mortal territory if his goals were from fluke plays, but they’re not. Most of his goals are due to extreme talent, great vision and a shot that can time travel. And when you can make almost any pass in any situation, your shot then becomes that much more deadly. I’m a believer, but then again I’m also an Ebs fanboy. That doesn’t sound right…

  34. sliderule says:

    If this team is going to be elite they have to feed on each other.

    We don’t have Gretzky but we have a number of elite draft picks.You notice I say picks as they have not yet proved they are elite players.

    If it comes together like it did before you will not believe how fast things can turn around.

  35. Lowetide says:

    Last season, Jordan Eberle’s shooting percentage was 18.9 and according to hockey-reference there were 17 men in history with better career shooting percentages
    http://www.hockey-reference.com/leaders/shot_pct_career.html

    So you have to ask “is it reasonable?” and I think the answer–based on the very shallow pool of information–is no. If Jordan Eberle scores 35 goals this season, will people be running around saying “well that’s a reasonable total” based on an 18 and 34 goal season?

    I don’t think they will. They’ll be saying many of the same things we heard this year, when Eberle far outpaced his RE.

  36. hunter1909 says:

    My Mom says there are a lot of black people in China.

  37. Dee Dee says:

    Jordan Eberle plays a very smart game and has a deadly accurate shot. He’s also pretty durable and hasn’t fallen victim to the bizarre accidents that have hit many of the other players.

    I’m not sure what other teams can do to try to contain him.

    Wouldn’t be suprised at all if he outscores Hall next year, hopefully all the other teams will underestimate him as well.

  38. "Steve Smith" says:

    Kris11: Your cat has improved his Corsi?

    Maybe marginally, but even that’s deceptive because every time he enters the offensive zone he gives up a hairball.

  39. Lowetide says:

    “Steve Smith”: Maybe marginally, but even that’s deceptive because every time he enters the offensive zone he gives up a hairball.

    Well maybe it’s the zone starts. Or is he still hanging with the neigbor cat, Horcough a loogie?

  40. Bar_Qu says:

    Bar_Qu:
    Why do you hate Eberle?

    David Staples is making an argument on Twitter that Ebs with RNH means high percentage of point conversion. I will leave that argument to the pointy heads, but it appeals to the irrational optimist in me.

    I am hoping 30-30-60 for my favorite player.

    This is the post where you should link to a Wikipedia article (which you wrote) defining RE. It is bizarre to me that we don’t get what you are doing here. Yeah, I would love an 80 point season out of Eberle, but it’s not a good idea to assume it will happen.

    We as fans can hope for more, but unless we have evidence to back us up, it is just guessing. Which is why I appreciated what Staples was doing- at least he was giving some substance to his argument.

    And yeah, I quoted myself. Someone had to do it first.

  41. VOR says:

    I remember the day of the draft and the week after the same name kept coming up as a comparable for Eberle and so far it is proving amazingly appropriate. Joey Mullen. Which would suggest last year might not have been Eberle’s career best SP. That isn’t to suggest it will go up this year, but rather that Eberle miight maintain a shooting percentage far beyond league average throughout his career.

  42. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Eberle has played in the league for two years and led his team in scoring both years. Is it reasonable to expect him to do so again?

  43. OilClog says:

    Banking on 80 if healthy, they’re gonna score.
    55pt expectations are suggesting a step back, not just for him, but all the top 6. 2-1/3-2 games all year is not how this team will win, 5-4 4-3 is a better choice for this squad. Top 6 should all be aiming for atleast 60pts this year if healthy.

  44. bill needle says:

    If Eberle scores only 55 points this season, the Oilers will draft Nathan McKinnon, or whoever will be the consensus #1 pick next summer. For they will finish last again, Columbus be damned.

  45. dessert1111 says:

    RE: 82, 130-173-303. But I personally think he outscores this.

  46. jp says:

    Another question about Eberle’s RE.

    The reduction in goals is obvious due to the sh% coming down – it’s just a question of by how much. But why does he also lose 11 assists since last year? Most of the players around him are expected to show growth, so what’s the rationale in cutting the assists too? Are you expecting a drop in EV or PP TOI?

  47. rickithebear says:

    We all see Eberle, go to the high % shooting areas.
    the question we need to ask is his SH% close to the mean of the shots he takes.
    15%? 2.3 Sh per game. 28G/season
    not the meanof the league.
    He could shoot from everywhere and get 100 extra outer perimeter shots and score 4 G a season more. he would end up with 32G/season and a 11.2%.
    Then everyone can feel better.

    I will feel like we wasted 100 poscessions.

  48. Cactus says:

    LT,

    Very REASONABLE expectations. I think what a lot of people are missing is that your projected 12% in Shooting is still above the league average. If he puts up another !6% + season then we can start talking about Eberle as a top 30 shooter in the NHL. In the meantime, it’s appropriate to be modest.

    We really need shooting data out of junior. That would help solve a lot of this.

  49. prairieschooner says:

    We still do not know how good Eberle can be.
    Even thinking about a trade for those top notch D men makes me feel sick.
    Sort of like that feeling you get when you look down from a great height and for a moment everything starts spinning and you realise that looking down is not a good idea.
    So please everyone lets stop thinking about trading Ebs.

  50. Popcorn94 says:

    My thoughts on Eberle…you can’t enjoy macaroni without cheese, they just naturally go together. Why am I saying this? Because IMO successful “elite” players mesh with another to break through the stratosphere to become “special” players. Hull couldn’t have reached his level without Oates, Bossy without Trottier, LaFleur without Lemaire and most notably Kurri without 99. Ebs and Nuge click, plain and simple. Whether they play together or not (parish the thought) is up to Krueger, but when they do the game is played at a different level when the puck is on their stick.

    Eberle has that innate ability to fine a seam in the offensive zone, that RNH recognizes and can anticipate where Ebs will be before he gets there. At the same time, Ebs seems (no pun intended) to be able to understand where RNH will put the puck, while at the same time deciding exactly where he should deposit the puck past the goalie. The results have been sublime. Kurri/Gretzky had the same sync of hockey intelligence. Physically they weren’t impressive, but cerebrally they were above and beyond all others of their era. A bold comparison I realize, and I’m not foolish enough to suggest that they can reach they same level, I’m just stating that they play the game in a similar fashion.

    Where will they end up this year? Well you can go RE or Career year, but I suspect that if both RNH and Ebs remain healthy AND play together for the full year, this will be an incredible season. Prediction: RNH 70GP 22G 59A 81PTS (21 PPPTS) Ebs 77GP 37G 52A 89PTS (25PPPTS) S% 18.5

    Sit back and enjoy Edmonton. These kids (all of them) are a truly special group…will they make the playoffs this year? Doubtfull, but they will be a blast to watch and we can all talk about the season as we wait for 2013-14 season to come during the summer of ’13. Let’s just hope we can keep them together long enough to realize their potential as a group. GET THE CBA SIGNED!!! PLEASE!

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca