WHO’S NEXT?
The Edmonton Oilers had a nice start to free agency but like the rest of the league have been idling in the driveway since July 1. There is plenty of work to be done. A guess at the opening night roster might look like this:
- Nuge-Hall-Eberle
- Gagner-Hemsky-Yakupov
- Horcoff-Smyth-Jones
- Belanger-Eager-Petrell
- Hordichuk, Hartikainen
- Smid-Petry
- Whitney-J. Schultz
- Sutton-N. Schultz
- Peckham
- Dubnyk-Khabibulin
That’s my list, yours may be different and include Magnus Paajarvi and or Anton Lander.
The Oilers have work to do; I’ve suggested that Matt Carle (in the Whitney slot) and Daniel Winnik (in the Jones slot) would be ideal and they remain available. Trade options–perhaps more attractive to a team with so many players under NHL contract–are also out there and those things should start moving again with the watershed signings by Minnesota today.
Edmonton doesn’t have to worry about waivers this fall in regard to Lander, Paajarvi or Hartikainen. Theo Peckham, Linus Omark and Alex Plante will be exposed but that’s a different deal.
Edmonton doesn’t have to make a move. They could stand pat.
Will they?
LT: Do you object to Paajarvi in the Jones slot? If so, why? He’s responsible and can learn the boardwork from Smyth. To me MPS is a test for Krueger’s coaching ability.
At this point I’d say they have more to lose than gain from tanking another season, so if I were them I’d want at least one more good NHL player, and I’d aim for two.
I think the goaltending is fine though, so what do I know?
I don’t think there’s much in the UFA pool that interests them.
They have the extra bodies. I think further changes will come by hook or by trade. And they will be of the smaller nature: a pro mid-pairing Dman.
Someone please remind me… Does Petrell face waivers if sent down? Not sure they have any interest in another Forward. Otherwise why sign Petrell… Just for insurance purposes? I can see that being the case if he’s not waiver eligible. And I get the impression the org likes Jones.
And they have further vet mentoring type depth in Smyth and Belanger.
Partially reposted from previous thread:
I sure like what the Oilers have done so far – it’s clearly been an impressive summer to date.
And although I rarely enter the fray in this manner… this trade sure makes the Oilers more difficult to play against.
To the Oilers: Dubinsky and Tyutin.
To the NYR: Nash, Peckham. Omark
To the CBJ: Gagner, DelZotto, NYR !st, EDM 2nd
So long as NY wants to pay a steep price for Nash… everyone wins no?
They could stand pay and still be pleased with themselves, but the right move now could turn this summer into a serious difference maker.
Not to mention Horcoff, you doofus. You know, when he’s not busy captaining or doing God Putin’s work
I too have been eyeing up Dubinsky. I’m hoping the Rags need the space. I’m not as enchanted by Tyutin’s age and contract.
spoiler,
Yea at this point I think we’re better off trading than overpaying a FA, I’m just not sure what our spare parts are worth. Peckham? Omark? If we get out of the summer with both our 2nd round picks still in our pocket I’ll be surprised and probably a little disappointed.
I’d be fine with Paajarvi at 3line RW or anywhere on the 4line. There isn’t room for him at this time because:
1. Of the Jones, Petrell, Hordichuk etc contracts
2. Hartikainen is going to get the push
I hope we hear something about Whitney’s status soon. Whatever we hear probably won’t be true, but it will give us an idea of waht role the Oilers ee for Whitney going forward. If they say, “He’s back” that means they ant him for the top 4 and won’t add to the D. If they see “He’s such a pro and is finding ways to compete. Such a leader.” that means he will get bottom pairing minites and they’ll find someone else.
It’s pretty obvious they should add somebody at D. The cap room os there as long as the guy tou get via trade or free agency isn’t under contract for too long. But then again, it’s obvious they should eat Khabi’s cap hit and bring in somebod else, anyone really, to play with Dubnyk, as virtually anyone has a better chance than Khabi of putting up a good save percentage next year. (And the Oilers can carry Khabi’s cap hit this year, no problem.)
Axcuse my splling.
Looks Like Philly and Detroit were hoping for Suter , Philly may keep Carle or Detroit may go after him and if you can believe the rumours JBO and Yandle maybe on the list.
NJ will be looking for forwards with the loss of Parise.
Who knows Nash may be looking for a Dman
It seems that every team has been mentioning Daniel Winnik, makes me wonder why no move has been made, or it has and the price is too high
I’d like to see MPS start on the farm. The last thing he needs is to get limited minutes or struggle and then have to go down to find his game again.
The Oilers will need to sign some AHL vets soon. It looks likey have about 13 to 14 skaters that are “prospects”. I think they will need to sign maybe 3 guys to NHL contracts with the rest on AHL deals.
I get you. Poor kid. $67000 in the AHL vs $900000 in the show is a hell of a difference. Far better than the pressbox though.
I’ll be interested to see if Hartikainen’s hands are actually better than MPS when seen over 5 years. Neither has hit 20 goals that I can tell. One can fly the other can bang, both are big. I say keep both and trade Eager.
Henry: the solution is a Ryan Jones trade.
Good idea! Though I’m one of the ‘don’t hate Jones’ crowd because of the ambushes he puts on rushing defensemen when on the PK, there may not be room.
Perhaps Jones + a Musil or a 2nd for one year of Vlasic works for both rosters. Could put Eager in if they want him back.
Edmonton needs Olivier Roy to turn in Patrick Roy.
Is it just me or are advanced stats not that flattering to Carle? Or basic stats, for that matter. He seems like another one of those second/third pairing guys more than a lead d-man. I’m not saying the Oilers currently have a better alternative, mind you.
He’s certainly not a top drawer defender, but is the best on the free agent market. I’d prefer a wider range of skills–Tyutin is my choice–but he does have the long deal and the price isn’t cheap either.
Geez Louise, (or LT as the case may be.) I’m kinda thinking that Mr. Jones is worth his weight in dressing room gold, no?
spoiler,
Yeah Tyuti represents stability on the back end but his term is certainly a concern and I like Dubinsky a great deal.
If Nash goes to NY, all indications are that Dubinsky would be involved so the interesting question becomes does Howson prefer Gagner to Dubinsky? Do the Oilers?
Darren Dreger @DarrenDreger
Working on details. Matt Carle is closing in on a deal with Tampa Bay Lightning.
Guess we don’t have to worry about Carle’s advanced stats anyway.
Carle to TBAY.
Tyutin seems reasonable giving what has been happening
http://capgeek.com/players/display.php?id=591
I like jones, he has a couple flaws. But he scores, bangs, and clearly brings a upbeat tempo to the team. Gator would be the only waiver pick up that I can recall meaning more then him. I’m not sold on parting with him, Id really just like to see what this team plays like for the new Driver. I think Kruger is going to have a pretty giant impact on this franchise. Similar to what happened in Ottawa last season.
Columbus moved Methot earlier…do we think they are still going to move a D man..?
Tyutin’s NMC kicked in on July 1 as well.
I guess if they get a D man back in the Nash deal then maybe..still not a big fan of that contract however.
LT,
OT: Why did New Jersey not forfeit it’s first round pick in this years draft? It seemed this was the best year to do it.
Did they have a deal that fell through?
Tyutin was -21 last year and -40 over the last 3 seasons.
Played tough minutes and got destroyed.
If Edmonton isn’t bringing in a top 2 D then why pay 6 years?
Carle to Tampa! He’d have looked good in an Oilers jersey. Hjalmarsson it is then.
A few hours after the deadline for forfeiting this year’s pick had passed, I seem to remember someone on Twitter quoting the Devils’ GM as saying something along the lines of “no, the deadline hasn’t passed yet”. It’s possible that the Devils simply screwed up and missed the deadline by accident.
Blues
Philly
Det
Nash
These 4 teams are probably looking at Yandle and JBO
Rondo: Noodles beat me to it. Man. Noodles are beating me now.
It just seems to me we’re already loaded with bottom-end defencemen and have a few genuine second-pairing options with Petry and Schultz around. We need top-pairing players and in their absence, we might as well give the youngsters icetime and experience, rather than pay good money to a guy who’s got zero development left.
Let’s say we’re looking at this next season without Carle:
Smid Petry
Schultz Schultz
Sutton Peckham
Whitney (‘sore ankle, expected next game’)
Is the following any better?
Smid Carle
Schultz Petry
Sutton Schultz
Peckham
Whitney (on long-term IR)
Where’s the ROI on Carle? 2 more wins? 3? I’d rather throw Peckham out there and see if he turns into Smid rather than use another roster spot on Carle.
What would it take to get Regher out of Buffalo? And does he, would he, waive the no trade to come? We need a shark on the back end to drive the heads of these skilled guys not named Hemsky into the boards. Especially DSF’s new favorite team.. Heatley can’t get crushed soon enough.
I think ST is looking for value contacts (smyth, horti, schultz, qualifying offers) and what he perceives to be fair trade transactions. Still looking? Kicking tires, maybe?
I don’t see ST overpaying a Free Agent this year. Especially with the kids in the bank queue.
Edmonton doesn’t have to make a move. Therefore, they probably won’t. At least not a significant one.
Fedor Tyutin a steal at 4.5 M Carle got 5.5 for 6yrs
Regehr isn’t the same man he was. He’s lost more than a step, and in fact his departure from Calgary wasn’t met with any big meltdowns. Think Jason Smith to Philly – we knew his time was up, even if Philly didn’t.
As they are hosting the draft next year you can presume that they will not be burning the pick in 2013 either.
Over the last 3 years Carle is +93 better than Tyutin and Carle has 28 more points.
LT
Winnik doesn’t look like a clear improvement on Jones. Both about the same size, age and experience. Both have similar zone shifts against similar opp. Winnik takes a ton of shots so his Corsi is decent, however his shot his horrible. Winnik’s picture is in the dictionary next to “stonehands”.
Jones can actually score and is Nuge’s roomie and mentor on the road.
What does Winnik bring over Jones that justifies trying to find a decent deal to offload him?
Am I missing something?
Yes, Regehr is well past his prime.
Sekera might be available but isn’t what we are looking for.
Yandle or Striet on my list but price is probably higher now.
Looks like Nash to Los Angeles.
that’s Steve, and it’s the Lakers
Looks like Gretzky couldn’t bring him north.
Traktor,
Tyutin has been playing against the top lines , Carle plays against weak competition.
Columbus has no goalie also.
Take a look at this chart,
http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/5/30/top-defensive-pairings
What comparables have been thrown around for Justin Schultz so far? Based on draft pedigree, college stats, and playing style, Matt Carle seems pretty spot on.
If you’re +93 with only 9 more points a year, don’t you think that might be telling us something?
Tambi’s big free agent signing was Ales Hemsky. He does better when there is nobody bidding against him.
Traktor,
Tyutin played in *Columbus*.
Also, check the advanced stats.
Matt Carle is a good comp. I’ll also say Tom Poti.
Actually put me down for a +1 here. Jones has improved a bit defensively and brings a tidy amount of scoring. I’m at least a little concerned that Winnik has the same problem that Belanger did last season: decent defence is obscured by the fact that he can’t score at all. When you can’t get even a few goals, you’ve basically got to be perfect in your own end or it doesn’t matter.
With the craziness on the UFA side, and all this talk of a deal I looked at some lower end options that would help us on the back end and came up with one I think fits best.
Michael Rozsival is a UFA. He’s a vet RH dman who has some offense. He’s got decent corsi and , and would be a solid player for us and probably not cost us more then $3 mill for 2 years (fitting our salary structure).
As for forwards, yes LT has a Winnick hard-on, and we all want the vet two way guy who plays physical. But I doubt that happens. No one out there on LW really fits that mold. Add a vet dman, and run with the kids up front. If you are in it make a move late in the year, and with the ability to let MPS or Harsky or Lander play big minutes in the minors it gives us options via trade or if we need to clear out a Belanger if he’s a problem. Not perfect, but it’s all about the kids up front. Basically 6 6 kids and 6 vets up front, with only 1 kid on back end (Shultz) who is 22. Makes us the most well rounded vet team we’ve iced since the cup run.
BlacqueJacque,
Between injuries and the whole scenario in Calgary. He’s allowed to have a period of not being his best. He’s only 32, and as a third pairing option, I think the youth of the franchise could inject him for a season or two. IMO
Traktor,
Why? What is Roy guilty of?
now we stand pat, except perhaps a trade for Bouwmeester if Feaster is up for it – he isn’t – or if Burke is up for moving Kulemin – also unlikely.
this isn’t going to be the year the oil lurch forward, and that’s ok.
i suspect they’ll still be sniffing around the lottery as J Schultz and Yak learn the ropes and Horcoff and Khabibulin and Whitney come off the books.
another top 10 draft pick will make a difference, but the extra cap space and year of development will make a greater one.
Re: Winnik. He plays tough competition and battles them to a standstill. His 11-12 season is muddled at behind the net because he played for two teams but looking at 10-11:
4th toughest CorsiQualComp
3rd most severe zone start
Best Corsi Rel on Colorado
He’s Pisani imo. 14Ev minutes a night 2.5PK per evening. Won’t cost a bundle and can help along Paajarvi, Hartikainen and Lander while also spending time in a shutdown role with Horcoff and Smyth.
The “sell high” side of me keeps thinking that Jones has been performing over his mean. That being said, he’s done it for a while now. I still think that he is the most likely fwd to be traded. He has value right now. By February, Hemsky or Gagner might look attractive as well.
But still overpays.
Yeah, but not as much.
In other news…Glen Sather finally sets Al Montoya free and he signs in Winnipeg!
Here it is
http://blogs.northjersey.com/blogs/fireice/devils_choose_not_to_give_up_2012_first-round_draft_pick1/
Lowetide,
Thanks LT. I was trying to make sense of the muddle of his 2011-12 season where both his CorsiRel and QualComp were decidedly middling.
I am fine if the Oilers stand pat.
- Offensively, I think young teams improve more by young players maturing than by adding. I think our top 6 of Hall/Ebs/Nuge/Gags/Hemmer/Nail will be elite next year. Having Horcs at 3C and Belanger at 4C is a vast improvement over having them at 2C and 3C. I think our bottom 6 wingers are reasonable. Give the spots to whichever four of Smyth, Jones, Eager, Petrell, Hordichuk, Hartikainen, MPS earn it.
- Goaliewise, our biggest improvement will come from having Dubynk play 55 games instead of NK. Given Dubie’s development trend, getting a fairly consistent .910+ out of him for 55 games is not such a stretch. NK actually played lights out for 10 games and above average for 10 games before cratering. Giving him 27 games over the course of an entire season may allow him to play well. I am OK with Danis as a replacement if that’s not the case.
- Defensively, our biggest improvement will come from our goalie change. But I am OK with the D depth chart as is, with the big risk being Whitney’s foot. It gives a possible health-related outcome for him ranging from #1D to #7D. Another legit NHL D would be nice to mitigate that risk, but only if it doesn’t come at an unreasonable cost in assets or cash. A 3-for-1 quantity for quality trade would be nice if it could be made to happen.
- The big risk as always is injury. We have depth on the wing but not on the D or at centre. The hockey gods have certainly been nicer lately with the number of man-games lost trending back towards the league average, but the placement of those injuries is still pretty vicious, last year having lost (or hobbled or both) our #1C, #2C, #1LW, #2RW, #1D, #2D.
After rechecking the stats, let me revise (too late to edit) my Dubie stats to 60 games and .915+, leaving NK with a reasonable 22 games.
Too bad about Carle, he would have been ideal I think, but 6 x 5.5M is too much.
Jagr got $4,500,000.
Whitney got a +35 contract (at 40 years old!) for $9,000,000 / 2.
Hemsky gets way the hell more than $10,000,000 on the free market.
Tampa Bay
NYI
Edmonton
Columbus
It’s of very little consequence, but because I’m like that: we got Smith in a trade with Toronto. We sent a draft pick (second rounder, I think? Maybe third) the other way.
Whitney.. Most important player right now, if its the guy that left leaving the team in scoring..returning.. Look out. The play towards the end of the season for him personally suggests he may have a come back.
I’m a optimist about this season, positive thinking, positive results.
Do you really think that +/- tells who the better player is?
Montoya played for NYI
Woodguy,
DSF was referring to the pictures Slats had of Montoya, the Lakers cheerleaders, and the sheep.
I can’t believe Nash is a Laker. I know 11 things about the NBA, and this is beyond vomit.
Woodguy,
This is a good chart
http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/5/30/top-defensive-pairings
…and now I know one.
Yup, that;s good stuff.
Hey, another independent analyst finds that Gilbert is a good Dman?
Who knew?
Works every time
Oilers sign Dane Byers to a two-way deal per Stauffer on Twitter.
Outside shot at the 13th forward role? Or the vet for OKC/call up with crust? Or both?
Jagr scored 19 goals and 54 points +5 last season.
Whitney scored 24 goals and 77 points +24
Hemsky scored 10 goals and 36 points -13.
One of these is not like the others.
Christ WG: how is this not one of the better results stats. it is a reflection of Goals got/Given. How often are players given a + or a – while they were not on the ice.
Corsi is more a reflection of forwards yeilding play into there zone which yeilds shots. All the d man can do is force low, block, and prevent a higher % shot.
you want to measure dmen.
-the # of entries track quality of shot yeilded.
- shots blocked.
- 2nd phase pocesion shots allowed/prevented.
-3rd phase pocesion shots allowed/prevented.
Until shots are accurately tracked. it tells what a forward does if you give it in zone context.
Dmen give me a break!
Thanks for this. I had suggested earlier that Buffalo might make Sekera available. Looking at the chart puts him in a reasonable spot and may make some sense.
that is embarrasing! allthat tells us is the situational group he belong too.
Her is the group he belongs too. and……………nothing.
how about the results. you know Goals against.
oh wait you do not want that part.
first 4 season’s with oilers goals given up
2nd worst
19th worst
19th worst
6th worst.
Congradulations we saw he was the 11thworst dman in the league for GA on average.
Good! Real good!
I am crying here! that’s HF standard.
rickithebear,
Christ WG: how is this not one of the better results stats. it is a reflection of Goals got/Given. How often are players given a + or a – while they were not on the ice.
Its affectedly greatly by ONSV%.
Its been shown that players have next to no influence on that number.
You know that Gilbert’s 5v5 ONSV% two years ago was .889
There are players in the NHL who had better goaltending behind them on the PK.
LT…
Pisani had great hands. Winnik is Dvorak without the wheels. Jones has Pisani’s goal-scoring ability (if not his smarts)
Yes, because when players are signed to contracts, all that is looked at is the G-A-P-GP the previous year.
Nevermind age, trends or upside. Hemsky has had one serious injury. It cost him a ton of time. Until he had that injury, he was just under a PPG player. It takes over a year to recover. Amazingly, at 28, he should have lots of time to recover. Completely irrelevant.
Then again, this is a guy that thinks Hudler at $4,000,000 is better than Gagner at $4,000,000; right?
PDO,
Well, Gagner doesn’t hit like a truck.
Don’t forget that release.
Every goal Pisani scored a five hole deke or a bar down snipe.
Oilers: a guy sets up an oilers vs. flames fan golf tournament in Hanna. 8 oilers foursomes and 4 flames foursomes in the first day of sign-up. Flames donated prizes and signed jersey’s. Oilers response you are not in our area.
Beauty! we will take your money for seasons ticketS and mini packs, but you are not in my area.
wife’s hoping to get a national run on this story. good oiler publicity.
If you are like and wondering who the heck Dane Byers is, here you go:
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=69031
Hopefully he is not how Moroz turns out.
Maybe it means Eager is being traded?
True, I mean, Hudler had a WHOPPING 48 hits to put him in 15th on the team.
I don’t think a truck quite states how well Hudler hits, if anything, he’s like a Semi.
Sorry, I meant that he hits like a very well-driven truck.
you seem to think Sv% is areflection of the gaoltender.
sorry the Sv% for the year is a reflection of the goalie.
the variance to that average is a reflection of the D pair.
Tom gilbert sucked at preventing goals.
Would think the quality of shots were high as well.
Winnik has 37 career goals. At the same age Winnik is now, Pisani had 8 NHL goals. Winnik’s a solid 2-way winger and I think he’d be excellent in a role similar to Pisani’s in mentoring Stoll/Torres etc.
Do you have any empirical basis for that claim? As I recall, the numbers suggest exactly the opposite.
Check out mc79hockey’s site and Irrelevant Oiler Fans.
It’s been proven multiple times… it’s random. There is NO correlation from player-to-player from year-to-year for their SV%. None. Zero. Zilch. Nadda.
All you’re doing is throwing dice.
If Gilbert is “really bad,” he will still get the same proportion of saves as someone who is “really good;” he will just give up WAY more chances.
This just needs to be quoted again for how funny it is.
Ricki loves stats, but I honestly refuse to believe he’s ever passed a university level stats course…. the conclusions just don’t jive.
Bullshit:
.889 versus league average of .915
you are telling me 23.4 of the goals he gave up were bad luck.
because of luck,
a 5% quality shot has the same chance of scoring as a 65% shot.
Beautiful!
Luck over situational infuence.
Are you roof daddy at HF?
rickithebear,
I’m not sure that “empirical basis” means etc., etc.
I’m PDO at HF, though you’ve been called on not understanding the statistics you’re quoting by pretty much anyone and everyone who has taken a stats course there.
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&s=33&f1=2009_s&f2=5v5&f4=D&f5=EDM&f7=40-&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67
Explain that chart.
Did he just forget how to play?
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&s=33&f1=2009_s&f2=5v5&f4=D&f5=DET&f7=40-&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67
Was Niklas Lidstrom a bottom pairing D-man on Detroit in 09-10?
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&s=33&f1=2010_s&f2=5v5&f4=D&f5=PHI&f7=40-&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67
Was Sean O’Donnel better than Chris Pronger last year?
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&s=33&f1=2010_s&f2=5v5&f4=D&f5=CHI&f7=40-&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67
Chicago in 2010-2011:
John Scott the best defenseman.
Duncan Keith the worst defenseman.
Using a defenseman’s on ice SV% as his value is asinine. Why? Because it’s RANDOM. It’s a Poseidon distribution. This has been proven statistically by Vic Ferrari, among others I’m sure.
You’re basically saying Gilbert is awful because he can’t roll dice properly. He has no god damn control over the SV% behind him, just like every other player in the league.
RCM baby!
What is the major influence?
Luck? LOL!
variance in shot quality? yeah baby!
Statistics 2nd year pub admin class u of s 1982.
this is turning into a pissing match.
yes you are correct all shots are the same. There is not a 3000% variance in shot data these fine gentleman based all there theiry on.
There are no such thing as good or bad dmen. it is all luck. and real bad goalies.
Really: upper first comp versus4th comp.
wonder which is the better influence.
Do you think maybe the 4th line guys are shooting lower % shots or is it luck.
keith face d1st line comp. higher shots or luck.
Seabrook better than keith? yup!
Hjarmalsson and Campbell kill 2nds! yup!
Scott klilled 4th’s in his 6 minutes a game. yup
Situation
Sv%
luck
Corsi