BANKERS HALL
One of the major events in this edition of the Oilers cluster is apparently at hand. Various reports today have the Oilers extending Taylor Hall and possibly buying some free agent seasons.
This is an important, perhaps vital because it could represent an outer marker for the rest of the young guns. Detroit in the past had success in this area, signing their best player and then using it as a ‘line in the sand’ for latecomers to contract negotiations.
I have suggested a 7-year, $44 million dollar contract should be the range. I freely admit to being shockingly underqualified to make the guess, but Al “the beautiful” Gore made the internet and that means having a strong opinion on something–anything–means you can find an audience.
In our corner of the internet we are free to guess without fear of assholery. So, what say you?
An Eberle deal (ya know, the healthier one who plays a more physically sustainable game and has put up better stats) had better be right behind this if the team is going to take this approach.
6 years 35 million per.
Cap hit 5.833
I always have fear of assholery. I am thinking it has to be 7 year range, but I’m coming down on the 6 mill per type number, so 7/42 is my guess.
6 years $24 million…the kid should have picked a better number for the back of his jersey.
On a more serious note, I’ll go with the Tavares contract comp (adjusted slighly for inflation) 6 years $36 million.
Management: Hall and Eberle, you guys are key pieces of potentially something special. We want you here, do not doubt that. Our plans involve inking you both to long term deals. The minute we understand exactly what the rules are going to be regarding the cap and such in the new CBA, our first priority will be to sit down and work out contracts with the two of you. It would be a poor management decision for us not to understand the framework we will have to operate under. We have spent a lot of time trying to achieve the flexibility financially that we are soon to have for a good reason. We intend to enter into this new CBA era ready to competitively be at an advantage compared to a lot of the other clubs.
maudite,
That would be too smart. Nice post.
7/44 is too much. There is no reason to sign him now unless it is for a discount.
maudite,
This is exactly my feeling, and explained much better than I ever could.
maudite,
This was initially my thoughts as well, but after seeing Philly sign Hartnell and Simmonds, I wonder if uncertainty doesn’t provide the team with a bit of leverage as well. The Oilers may be able to go to the agents and tell them that this is there best chance of landing a 6-7 year deal at anything over $5.5M given the possibility of limits of contracts in reduced years or a lower salary cap.
Moreover, as the Oilers actually know what’s going on in the CBA negotiations (where as the fans do not) they may have figured out that RFA terms aren’t likely to change significantly and if the cap does go down, there will be some kind of amnesty/rollback.
maudite,
“The minute we understand exactly what the rules are going to be regarding the cap and such in the new CBA.”
Given Olczyk’s track record in this area… This could take some time.
It is difficult to imagine how Taylor Hall at a cap hit over $6 million does not cause problems when it comes to signing Eberle and RNH. Maybe J.S too if he plays lights-out his first couple of seasons. We already know Eberle’s agent is a piranah. He is probably still cursing Smyth for accepting his latest deal. I am certain Meehan is whispering in Eberle’s ear – why should the higher scorer get less money?
I liked the outlandish idea someone on this blog came up with a while back. Sit the young stars down, dump the money in front of them, and tell them that if they all want to be part of something special they need to find a way to split it up between them.
Well, the flip side, and the reason, I think, for many of these recent deals, is that management has a strategic advantage with players right now.
The amounts and lengths of contracts are likely to go down in the new CBA. The time before becoming an UFA may go up. This means that players might be willing to sign for a little less money and a little more term so that they don’t get wacked by the new CBA.
Wolfpack,
4 men enter, 1 cheque leaves
$6 million per year over 7 years for Hall.
You do it now because the length of contracts will be smaller under the new CBA and, if the past experience is any guide, the current % of a contracts AAV will be adjusted to the new cap so there is no disincentive to sign now for the team and Hall (and many others) seem to have concluded that the flexibility of quicker subsequent contracts are not worth it.
Just because the best allround player in the NHL (Johnny Toews) and his sidekick (the original cabbiesmacker) are signed at $6.3 CH I would say your estimate is pretty damn close LT.
*even though neither will ever achieve close to the same hockeygod status as the best allround player in the NHL, Johnny Toews..:))
I’d do 52 mill over 8 years or 6.5 per. He’ll still be 29 at the end of the deal and if the cap continues to go up we’d be hard pressed to get everyone under him (a good thing). When Detroit was implementing the Lidstrom cap, his salary was about 7 million of 50 million (so in the neighbourhood of 14% of the cap). When Hall is 29 the cap will be 80 million at least, even if they rollback this year. Halls cap percentage would be more like 8% if he’s paid 6.5.
No player who faced the 2nd hardest comp for his position on his team (bolland 1st) and has a 62.2% zone (3rd easiest for centers in league) can be reffered to as best allround.
rickithebear,
But his QualGrit, QualClutch, QualLeadership, and Good ‘ole Canadian Boy Corsi is through the roof!
Nor should Eberle accept less than Hall at this stage.
At the time of their signing, Toews and Kane took a discount to get both signed under the cap.
Not sure if that’s possible now, considering the insane contracts handed out this summer and the impending work-stoppage.
I would aim for 5.5, even if its on on a four year deal. That way we dont risk having to overpay the other kids too much, and can reassess hall when he peaks.
If they can ‘Jeff Carter’ both Hall and Eberle to 10 year 5.75 million per contracts I wouldn’t complain.
I agree with the opinion that this is not optimal timing to do this deal. Both for the CBA reasons cited as well as the shoulder surgery recovery to come. Given what we’ve seen with Horcoff and Hemsky recovering from a similar injury, I think it’s fair to speculate that Hall may post fairly mediocre boxcars this season (at least by his standards). Given the expected shooting % regression for Eberle as well, I would anticipate the Oilers being in a far better position for leverage towards the end of this season for both of these prospective RFAs.
That said, I suspect NHL teams are anticipating that they’ll be successful in limiting contract terms going forward, while grandfathering in the current contracts with excessive terms. Potentially this limbo period pre the new CBA represents an opportunity to lock down your franchise players for a longer duration than the limit that will exist post CBA?
Personally, I’ve always felt that offering a pro athlete any contract exceeding 5 years is sheer folly. Yes, Taylor Hall could be entering his prime in 5 years. But as both Ovechkin and Crosby have shown quite recently, his production could also be trending significantly downward at the same time.
Sports managers are hedging that they’ll pay under market value in the long run with these longer term contracts. I suggest they would pay less by maximizing the returns on the pre-UFA years and then let the market dictate value thereafter. True franchise cornerstones (e.g. Lidstrom, Sakic, Brodeur, etc.) that stay consistently productive AND healthy are exceedingly rare. It’s better to assume that one or more of the Fab 4 will lose production due to external factors leaving the team in a more advantageous bargaining position.
Of course, proof that this is complete horseshit is Ales Hemsky. Injury prone player coming off sup par year production wise still pulls down the big contract. On 2nd thought, let’s just sign these guys long term now cos clearly management can’t manage a market value scenario.
7 yrs at 44.1 would be grand. It would be around 8% of the current salary cap and would allow all 4 young guns to sign for the same and leave flexibility going forward. Please, baby jebus, let us buy some UFA years.
Firstly, I agree with Maudite. Tambo would be wise to wait for the CBA to shake out.
Now for fun, assuming things stayed about the same, I’d be offering 8 yrs and 50 mil each to all 3 of Hall Ebs and Nuge. 6.25 per. Let them share the money AND responsibility equally.
The risk with using Hall to draw a line in the sand, and saying this is our #1, is that later you have to say this is our #2, then later #3 and so on and you start the game of musical chairs which ends with a Yak, or a Nuge or a Ebs at the airport because they feel they have always been just as important a piece as Hall but are not paid like it.
Give these 3 equal money right now and build the team and core with shared responsibility. If Yak plays near the level of the other 3 in his rookie year, I’d give him the same deal a year later too.
GOILERS!
Sometimes one needs to pull ones cranium out of ones qualstatsarse and open ones eyes to the reality that numbers do not tell the whole story. Well sure they make a person feel a lot more important when they spit them out, (after googling BTN), as though they knew them offhand, but really?
I simply used some new stats to make my bold post. They’re called Qual2010olympic testimonials and Qualwhothefuckwonthe2010cupasshole. Then I opened a second screen to play with the quali’veforgottenmorethenyoucangoogleinaday and qualnobodylikesaknowitallinternettwatspoutingsecondhandnumbers.
Check em out.
If Sid was a healthy man he’s the only player in the league you build your team around before Toews. Honorable mention to Mr Stamkos of course.
But I may be biased.
Cause you’d never want to build around napkin, or AO or doughty or chara or a sedin for that matter.
21 year personal services contract for 21 million dollars.
We aren’t going to have much of a convo if you’re serious about a pouty Ruskie, an older dman and a set of twins who’ve had chances and get it done.
Dude you could have gone so many other ways first.
Sometimes one needs to pull ones cranium out of ones qualstatsarse and open ones eyes to the reality that numbers do not tell the whole story.
the only arse work is Bolland taking it to shelter toews.
Last year:
Bolland QOC .086 ZS 32.5%
Toews QOC .075 ZS 64.7%
7 / 42! Me feel smart.