EBERLE SIGNS!

The Edmonton Oilers announced this afternoon that Jordan Eberle has signed a 6-year, $36 million dollar deal. This is a very popular signing.

I had suggested previously that a 7-year, $38.5M deal ($5.5M per season)

We’ll have plenty of time in the next few days to talk about the signing, and of course the Oilogosphere will spend at least a week mulling it over. I have several initial reactions:

  1. The Oilers paid in full, based on one outstanding season. History tells us this is exactly the kind of contract that goes sideways.
  2. Oiler fans adore Jordan Eberle. He’s a wonderful story and represents real success in the draft and development department.
  3. Jordan Eberle will face competition for playing time and special team minutes. This could and likely will impact his boxcars.
  4. I like him plenty. Could you all do me a favor and not turn on him like rabid dogs the first time he doesn’t clock 75 points in a season?

Thanks. Appreciated.

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78 Responses to "EBERLE SIGNS!"

  1. bookje says:

    Anyone else notice how he is kinda slumping his shoulders in his twitter picture?

  2. Lowetide says:

    Fuckin’ guys.

  3. gogliano says:

    bookje:
    Anyone else notice how he is kinda slumping his shoulders in his twitter picture?

    I heard he said of the photo-taking that he wasn’t really into it.

  4. Lowetide says:

    NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

  5. bookje says:

    It’s ok LT, he is going to clear 75 points a year for the next decade at least!

  6. justDOit says:

    gogliano,

    and he left the photo shoot early

  7. BONVIE says:

    Could you all do me a favor and not turn on him like rabid dogs the first time he doesn’t clock 75 points in a season?

    Haters are gonna Hate. They hated on Paul Coffey for cripes sake

    Eberle is a big game player he will always redeem himself in the playoffs.

    The longer this lockout goes the higher the Oilers start on the league depth chart, if we miss half a season we will probably end up starting the season as a top 16 team, and moving up from there.

    This was seen in the last lockout how the young players just took over the league after the lockout was done.

  8. leadfarmer says:

    Upon signing he was heard leaving the weight room saying at least I never have to come in here again. He then took away a baby’s pacifier and knocked over an old lady. Then he requested a trade to Cowtown.

  9. Mr. K says:

    The first sentence of his tweet ends with a dot dot dot instead of an exclamation point. He is actually being sarcastic about being excited.

  10. sliderule says:

    As long as Eberle plays with the Nuge he will cover all the bets.

  11. Ducey says:

    He then took away a baby’s pacifier and knocked over an old lady

    What were Omark and Bulin doing there?

    To be honest I feel better about this deal than Hall’s (not that I am troubled by either). Ebs has at least put up the points.

    Now to lock up Ladi.

  12. "Steve Smith" says:

    I’m impressed that Hall and Eberle apparently think they’re only ~9% better than Horcoff.

    (Source: DSF. Or possibly Traktor. But I think DSF.)

  13. Traktor says:

    I wish Tambellini would’ve given MPS 6M instead because he has a much better shooting % than Eberle.

    The good news for Eberle is all he needs to do is match Hemsky’s 36 points to win over half of Oiler fans.

  14. nelson88 says:

    I like both players but anyone want to a little wager on who scores more goals/points at the end of 6 years? My money is on Ebs.

  15. art vandelay says:

    The longer this lockout goes the higher the Oilers start on the league depth chart, if we miss half a season we will probably end up starting the season as a top 16 team, and moving up from there.

    That’s funny. You should hope for an entire season to get wiped out. By next fall, you’ll be pre-season No. 1.

  16. Mr DeBakey says:

    The good news for Eberle is all he needs to do is match Hemsky’s 36 points to win over half of Oiler fans.

    I’ll have you know I was a big Hemsky fan long before he notched 36 points in a season.

  17. Lucinius says:

    Its always bad to see a bad guy get this kind of money and term.

    I mean, have you seen the commercials with Eberle in them? He’s such an ass; clearly he’s cancer in the room waiting to happen.

    I expect he’ll hit 64 points or so in a full season, get run out of town and drag the wife (Hall) with him.

    Also, I hear he was the one injuring Hemsky all these years because he’s just that big of a douche.

    In all seriousness; glad to see the signing and I’m actually glad its not the same term as Hall’s. I don’t really want the Fab Four’s contracts to line up in the same off season wherever possible.

  18. JohnnyRocket says:

    This was an important signing as a message to the other players and the rest of the league that the Oilers are committed to running with the kids. I’m not crazy about the dollars, but I imagine Eberle’s agent used his counting numbers to push for 6.5-7. I imagine that is why the term is less than Hall’s. Eberle wouldn’t give up 2 unrestricted years for 6. What I do like about this signing is that Eberle is a cerebral player. As they develop more chemistry, the kids will give defensemen fits for years and years. Happy days.

  19. Bar_Qu says:

    2 things. I doubt coming into the new CBA either of these guys will be UFAs for their next deals, shoot they may actually be negotiating new deals under the following CBA anyways (the one where the owners force the players to pay them for the right to die in the arena).
    Secondly, having an Eberle for him to play with gives Hall more room to do his thing, IMO. Not that Eberle drives the play, but he likely gets the same kind of notice as Hall forcing opposing coaches to pick who they want their shut down guys to focus on.

    Having both these guys on the team is a benefit to both of them & I don’t think the dollars are bad in either case. My two cents, fwiw.

  20. DSF says:

    There is a much better chance that the Hall contract goes sideways than Eberle’s.

    6 million for these kids is too much based on limited experience but, if you’re going to question a contract, it should be Hall’s.

    As others have stated, the smart money is on Eberle to live up to his contract.

  21. bookje says:

    Bar_Qu:
    2 things. I doubt coming into the new CBA either of these guys will be UFAs for their next deals, shoot they may actually be negotiating new deals under the following CBA anyways (the one where the owners force the players to pay them for the right to die in the arena).
    Secondly, having an Eberle for him to play with gives Hall more room to do his thing, IMO. Not that Eberle drives the play, but he likely gets the same kind of notice as Hall forcing opposing coaches to pick who they want their shut down guys to focus on.

    Having both these guys on the team is a benefit to both of them & I don’t think the dollars are bad in either case. My two cents, fwiw.

    I think the owners will cave on ufa timelines to get more of the pot. I expect few changes outside of the $ split. Maybe a few small gains for the owners.

  22. Bar_Qu says:

    bookje,

    Can you please tell Angry Gary that?

  23. Ryan says:

    Ryan,

    Actually, LT got murdered by his love for Omark and dislike of Jones. That’s 57 of his 65 point deficit behind vukota right there.

    I know Awad writes for Puck Prospectus, but is there some way of looking at the Vukota predictions outside of just their articles?

    PRV, Belanger, and Eberle screwed up most predictions.

  24. Ryan says:

    DSF:
    There is a much better chance that the Hall contract goes sideways than Eberle’s.

    6 million for these kids is too much based on limited experience but, if you’re going to question a contract, it should be Hall’s.

    As others have stated, the smart money is on Eberle to live up to his contract.

    Always the contrarian aren’t you? Outside of injury risk, the math (scoring chances and shooting percentages) don’t agree with you.

    That being said, Eberle is a cerebral player with ridiculous hands who’s beat the odds every step of his career.

    I think both signings make sense.

    Hall if an injury risk is a risk of real dollars, but not cap hit.

    If Hall goes supernova, his contract would have cost substantially more after this season. Then there are things like the risk of offer sheets.

    It could have made sense to let Eberle’s shooting percentage deflate, but a cap hit of six m in today’s NHL for a player of his calibre isn’t a bad number at all.

  25. LMHF#1 says:

    He’s our #4 hitter. He’s the straw. He’s the guy that will score THE goal to win the trophy when the time comes. Great news.

    And why would we ever have to deal with a full season under 75 points? Maybe when he’s 35+

    I think you’re trying to Hemsky-reverse-psychology this guy LT.

  26. DSF says:

    Ryan: Always the contrarian aren’t you?Outside of injury risk, the math (scoring chances and shooting percentages) don’t agree with you.

    That being said, Eberle is a cerebral player with ridiculous hands who’s beat the odds every step of his career.

    I think both signings make sense.

    Hall if an injury risk is a risk of real dollars, but not cap hit.

    If Hall goes supernova, his contract would have cost substantially more after this season.Then there are things like the risk of offer sheets.

    It could have made sense to let Eberle’s shooting percentage deflate, but a cap hit of six m in today’s NHL for a player of his calibre isn’t a bad number at all.

    The Oilers are paying a couple of relatively unproven players Sedin money (and more than Kesler, Burrows and Booth), all of whom have a proven track record of performance over a significanct time frame.

    The Avalanche made a similar bet on Paul Statsny, much to their chagrin, and it’s entirely possible (likely) one of these contracts will be similar.

    While I tend to agree with the notion of locking up your core early and often, Taylor Hall has NOT exceeded 60 points and appears to be a huge injury risk.

    P.S. Statsny had much better numbers than Hall in his first two NHL seasons.

    I would have waited on Hall given his surgery and would have used the current CBA situation to take a look see at Eberle’s next season.

    The OIlers have now gone all in with a pair of tens.

    Not smart.

  27. Lowetide says:

    DSF: Hahahaha. A pair of tens. Classic. And the line about the Oilers having the gall to pay Hall more than Booth was very good too.

    you should change your handle to ‘Mitt.’

  28. bookje says:

    Every once in a while DSF goes too far and the serious veneer is easily seen through as the trolling it really is.

    Should of said a pair of Jacks buddy, then you would have had 2 or 3 hours of blog commenters dancing for you here like you do most nights.

  29. justDOit says:

    Lowetide,

    That’s low. But not low enough.

  30. mc79hockey says:

    Wait, Traktor is back and doubting shooting percentage? How is Cogliano doing these days?

  31. justDOit says:

    mc79hockey,

    Not his fault. I made his brain hurt last night. Sorry.

  32. Gerta Rauss says:

    Brownlee’s got a piece up at ON tonight-best news I’ve heard about Whitney in a long time. I still would like to see them pick up another veteran D even if Whitney comes to camp (seemingly) healthy and pain free.

  33. zilong says:

    Hello all. Long time reader, first time poster here.

    Although Eberle may have been signed for a friendlier cap hit next year, I feel okay with 6M/yr given Hall’s contract; hopefully it establishes a team cap.

    Management: “what’s that? You think your client is better than Eberle AND Hall??”

  34. Bruce McCurdy says:

    If only Oilers had traded Jones in November like they were supposed to, LT would have been bang on with that points prediction.

  35. justDOit says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Are you insinuating that LT was led astray by false prophets of the Oiler kingdom?

  36. justDOit says:

    justDOit,

    APG?

  37. justDOit says:

    zilong,

    It’s called the Lidstrom demarcation. ‘What’s that you say? You want more than our best player?’

  38. nelson88 says:

    justDOit: zilong, It’s called the Lidstrom demarcation. ‘What’s that you say? You want more than our best player?’

    A strategy that makes great sense but what if neither of them is the team’s best player? I think ultimately RNH will have that honour. Hoping he has a strong year but does not go supernova in 2012-13 (assuming there is a season) and with the new CBA in place hopefully they can get him wrapped up for 6 or 7 years next summer.

  39. Ryan says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    If only Oilers had traded Jones in November like they were supposed to, LT would have been bang on with that points prediction.

    Better still if they had played Omark in his slot. :). In fairness, Omark also had an injury which kept him out.

    Eberle’s RE vs counting numbers also burned LT, but I’m sure in that case, he didn’t mind at all. :)

  40. Ryan says:

    bookje:
    Every once in a while DSF goes too far and the serious veneer is easily seen through as the trolling it really is.

    Should of said a pair of Jacks buddy, then you would have had 2 or 3 hours of blog commenters dancing for you here like you do most nights.

    True. DSF also doesn’t like to factor in things like where the cap was at the time contracts were signed or other factors such as contract length.

    Granted the Sedins are a ridiculous value at their current cap hit.

    It’s only unfortunate that Eberle didn’t out produce Kessler last season or I could rub that in. Oh wait, Is that a 28 point gap? :).

  41. hags9k says:

    Anybody who picks us to finish last in the division one day then calls Hall and Ebs a pair of tens the next is clearly not much of an Oiler fan and people shouldn’t get so worked up about the posts. DSF is the Sean Avery of the blog.
    (I will say though that I love to hate you so keep it up.)

  42. hags9k says:

    zilong: Hello all. Long time reader, first time poster here.Although Eberle may have been signed for a friendlier cap hit next year, I feel okay with 6M/yr given Hall’s contract; hopefully it establishes a team cap. Management: “what’s that? You think your client is better than Eberle AND Hall??”

    Nugent Hopkins’ agent….. “Yes.”

  43. Woodguy says:

    Somewhere Brian Burke is holding a funeral for the death of the 1st RFA value contract.

  44. zilong says:

    nelson88,

    Here’s hoping the extra year of development they have on Nuge (and 2 on Yak) will let them keep ahead, at least until Nuge signs his big boy deal. I see it as a bloc. Nuge will probably get the same contract.

  45. Traktor says:

    MC:

    Remember when you wanted to pay Sam Gagner 5.5M per season? oops

    You still a big fan of the Adam Lind signing?

  46. Dalton says:

    Lowetide: you should change your handle to ‘Mitt.’

    Oh, has this blog become unfriendly to conservatives? I had hoped that this was a neutral ground for politics. Guess not.

  47. Tortoise says:

    Dalton,

    Conflating Republican with Conservative is bad.

  48. Traktor says:

    As for Cogs, it was never about the percentages for me. I didn’t think it was unreasonable that he could score 18 goals again and sure enough the following year he matched his goal total with a lesser shooting % by increasing his shot output. Different coaches, different systems, new team, linemates.. a lot has happened since. I thought he could score 30 at one point though.

    Its like Omark, you are a big fan of Omark right MC? Where is he right now? Out of the NHL after a 4 point season. It doesn’t mean you’re an idiot for thinking he is a good player. I’m sure he could still put up good numbers in the right situation but you gotta catch the right break and right time.

  49. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Ryan: Better still if they had played Omark in his slot.

    Sure thing.

    P / G
    Jones 0.42, Omark 0.21

    Corsi QualComp
    Jones 8th, Omark 16th (of 16 Oiler forwards with 10+ GP)

    ZoneStart
    Jones 3rd toughest, Omark 3rd easiest

    +/- per 60
    Jones 9th, Omark 16th

    Hits
    Jones 2nd among forwards, Omark 16th

    Blocked shots
    Jones 1st, Omark 15th

    TkA : GvA ratio:
    Jones 4th, Omark 16th

    SHTOI/G
    Jones 2nd, Omark none whatsover

    I’ll stop there. They’re almost the same player! Biggest difference is Jones’ flow vs. Omark’s sideburns.

  50. DSF says:

    Ryan: True.DSF also doesn’t like to factor in things like where the cap was at the time contracts were signed or other factors such as contract length.

    Granted the Sedins are a ridiculous value at their current cap hit.

    It’s only unfortunate that Eberle didn’t out produce Kessler last season or I could rub that in.Oh wait, Is that a 28 point gap? .

    You make some interesting points.

    But, consider the Sedins were signed to 5 year contracts (they wanted 12) just after completing identical 82 point seasons.

    Not before, after.

    The cap the following season was $56.8M and there was every expectation that it would keep rising, which it did.

    Fast forward to 2012 and the NHL wants to reduce the cap to $58M.

    Now, we don’t know how all this will turn out or how teams will deal with a reduced cap but it’s important to point other neither does Tambellini.

    As for Kesler, he earned his contract AFTER a 75 point season which he followed up with a 41 goal season and a Selke trophy.

    That his play fell off after hip surgery, missing training camp and the first few games of the season is not surprising.

    Under similar circumstances, I am sure you can agree the gap between Eberle and Kesler in point production might have been a little smaller and, of course, one of these players is an exceptional defensive player while the other is till learning his craft,

    Look, I think both of these two are exceptional young talents but they just received big boy contracts based on potential, not what they’ve done and they were signed at a time when their GM doesn’t have a clue what the cap landscape is going to look like.

    Does that seem prudent to you?

  51. Mr DeBakey says:

    Oh, has this blog become unfriendly to conservatives?

    Next week, tune into Marxtide.
    In honour of Labour Day.

    Unfriendly to Conservatives.?
    Maybe to serial liars.
    Flip-flp fanatics.
    Born on third triple hitters.

  52. bookje says:

    Tortoise:
    Dalton,

    Conflating Republican with Conservative is bad.

    Exactly

  53. oilswell says:

    He tweeted “apart” not “a part”. So clearly subconsciously he wants to be apart from the Oilers.

  54. russ99 says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Maybe you should look at 10-11 to make that comparison, not 11-12, when Renney essentially refused to play Omark.

  55. Moosemess says:

    DSF:

    Look, I think both of these two are exceptional young talents but they just received big boy contracts based on potential, not what they’ve done and they were signed at a time when their GM doesn’t have a clue what the cap landscape is going to look like.

    Does that seem prudent to you?

    It’s prudent if mgmt thinks their play this season could put them in an even more advantageous bargaining position at the end of the coming season. And there’s ample reason to suspect that could be the case for the following reasons.

    1) Mgmt has restocked the prospect cupboard and the external tenor is now changing. This team expects to improve substantially this year and compete for a playoff spot. The days of running Khabi ragged or trotting out the Barker turnstile to guarantee premium draft position are coming to an end. This will have an impact on the counting numbers for everyone.

    2) The PP was good last year and with the addition of Schultz and Yakupov, it should be even better this year. We’ve seen this movie before. These young guns are going to light so many red lamps, the NHL’s going to look like Amsterdam on shore leave.

    3) Both injuries and the inability of the defense to get the puck consistently up the ice have both negatively impacted Hall and Eberle’s chance numbers. These will improve – drastically.

    You’re likely having a hard time wrapping your head around this because you primarily support a Canucks hockey club that’s never won ANYTHING. Lowe and MacT were there at the start of a dynasty, through its accomplishment and ultimately at its dissolution. I think it’s quite likely that they learned some hard lessons at that point about salary structure and how inequities in same can tear a championship team apart.

    What they’re doing here is emulating the Detroit model. Lock up the core at tenable rate and term and set that as the benchmark for everyone else. It’s sound and prudent, primarily because it conforms to an overall plan as opposed to making these decisions in isolation. By contrast, let’s look to David Poile to see how well it works out when you wait until the last moment to try and retain your core at fair market rates.

  56. DeadmanWaking says:

    DSF: The Oilers are paying a couple of relatively unproven players Sedin money (and more than Kesler, Burrows and Booth), all of whom have a proven track record of performance over a significanct time frame.

    I didn’t even look at the byline and I’m going “Where did this clown come from?” Then I looked at the byline. Oh. Cancel my riff on “There’s a new clown in town.”

    What gives your comment a double helping of Barry Bonds secret sauce is that we’re presently facing a lock-out year. The salary cap escalation from 39.0 to 70.2 million over seven years is in my face on a daily basis before I finish my breakfast oatmeal.

    That’s a $30 million blind spot there, DSF. Looks good on you. Burke, in one of his lucid moments, specifically complained that the structure of the previous CBA would force teams to make big pay-outs to younger players who don’t yet have a solid track record of being underpaid for delivering superior performance. Actually that last bit wasn’t how he finished his remark. I fixed that for him.

    But thanks for explaining why the Sasquatch is nearly extinct: Swedish women are so hot, there’s a huge black market among Swedish males for condoms fabricated from Sasquatch insoles, permitting them to peak about eight years later than Sidney Crosby.

  57. Dalton says:

    bookje: Tortoise:
    Dalton,

    Conflating Republican with Conservative is bad.

    Exactly

    Wha? When did I conflate republican with conservative? I did no such thing, and I have two people calling me on it. Weird…

    I thought Bookje was supposed to be smart?

  58. DSF says:

    Moosemess,

    1) Given the tenor of the current CBA talks, I think it’s exceedingly unlikely either Hall or Eberle will be in a better bargaining position a year from now even if their counting numbers improve.

    2) Expecting “everyone’s” counting numbers to improve just because the “prospect cupboard” is re-stocked doesn’t make any sense.
    While the deletion of Barker and playing Khabibulin fewer games MIGHT lead to more wins, I certainty don’t see any correlation between that and more goal scoring. Please explain how you do.

    3) The Oiler PP last season was 20.6%. The highest PP% post lockout was 25.5.
    If the Oilers were to receive the same number of PP chances as last season (262) and scored at a rate that matched the best PP percentage recorded post lockout (25.5), they would score 67 PP goals as opposed to 54. In other words, if the Oilers were to match the PP scoring rate of the 08/09 Red Wings, they will score 13 more goals over the course of a season.

    It should be pointed out that Red Wing team included Datsyuk, Zetterburg, Hossa and Franzen with Lidstrom and Rafalski on the points.

    Now, I am sure you may want to believe the Oilers can throw out a PP like that, but I certainly wouldn’t bet on it. I would think 23% might be an outer marker.

    4) How does the addition of one rookie defenseman who has never played a game in the NHL result in Hall and Eberle’s chance numbers improving dramatically? Schultz may certainly have a positive impact but expecting a “drastic improvement” is a bit much.
    You also mentioned injury…is there some method by which you’ve determined injury will no longer affect the Edmonton Oilers?

    5) There is no evidence that Lowe , Tambellini and MacT have learned anything about salary structure or inequities. It can be argued that virtually all of their recent signings have been overpayments (Sutton, Hemsky, Gagner, Hall, Eberle). While I can agree that inequities can tear a team apart, there is no way of knowing what Hopkins and Yakupov will either earn or demand on their second contracts.
    What the Hall/Eberle contracts accomplish is setting a minimum for players who outproduce them. I can see both Hopkins and Yakupov having better counting numbers in the next two seasons.

    For example, let’s assume Hall continues to be nagged by injury because of his style of play and doesn’t exceed 70 points. If Hopkins were to have a PPG season, what would you sign him for?

    They are NOT emulating the Detroit model….not in the least.

    Holland set Lidstrom’s contract as his line in the sand but Lidstrom did not get a big pay day until the 99/00 season. At that point, he had already been in the league 8 years, years in which he was a consistent all star and had put up multiple 50-60 point seasons.

    No comparison. None.

    While having a plan is better than no plan, having a bad plan might be the worst of all.

    Executing that plan, in the face of CBA uncertainty while under no time pressure to do so, doesn’t sound like a good plan to me.

    The estimable Tyler Dellow put it pretty well:

    “What option did the Oilers have to paying Eberle now? Well, there was nothing preventing them from letting him play out his contract and see what he does next year. It’s unfathomable to me that they were likely to end up with Eberle in a position to ask for more money than he’s getting.

    For one thing, if you’re paying attention to the CBA negotiations (good for you if you aren’t), the salary cap is coming down, at least in the short term. For another, for the reasons set out previously, it seems exceedingly unlikely to me that Eberle’s going to match his numbers from last year.

    The Oilers, for whatever reason, eschew sensible risks and prefer the comfort that comes from paying top of the market prices for things that probably aren’t worth that.”

    http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=4862

  59. DSF says:

    DeadmanWaking: I didn’t even look at the byline and I’m going “Where did this clown come from?”Then I looked at the byline.Oh.Cancel my riff on “There’s a new clown in town.”

    What gives your comment a double helping of Barry Bonds secret sauce is that we’re presently facing a lock-out year.The salary cap escalation from 39.0 to 70.2 million over seven years is in my face on a daily basis before I finish my breakfast oatmeal.

    That’s a $30 million blind spot there, DSF.Looks good on you.Burke, in one of his lucid moments, specifically complained that the structure of the previous CBA would force teams to make big pay-outs to younger players who don’t yet have a solid track record of being underpaid for delivering superior performance.Actually that last bit wasn’t how he finished his remark.I fixed that for him.

    But thanks for explaining why the Sasquatch is nearly extinct: Swedish women are so hot, there’s a huge black market among Swedish males for condoms fabricated from Sasquatch insoles, permitting them to peak about eight years later than Sidney Crosby.

    Did you get another day pass?

  60. bookje says:

    Not really calling you on it – just saying things.

    I think the implication was LT used the name ‘Mitt’ in a derogatory way relating the name ‘Mitt’ to lying.

    You responded and suggested this was ‘unfriendly to conservatives’

    Somebody than said conservatives do not equal republicans

    Then I said agree.

    Then you got offended or something about us suggesting you conflated conservative with republican which we thought you did when you equated Mitt (Mitt Romney – Republican – Lies a lot) with conservatism.

    There, now its all clear.

  61. PunjabiOil says:

    Look, I think both of these two are exceptional young talents.

    What changed between now and 8 months ago in which you suggested Taylor Hall was Ethan Moreau?

    You’re all over the map.

    Reminds me of my co-worker who lies on a daily basis to doctor a higher image of himself.

  62. DeadmanWaking says:

    After my “awaiting moderation” response to DSF I started to think about comparables. (Is it because I’m replying to DSF or Is It Me? I’ve only noticed this before when my post included links.) What we really need in the NHL blogosphere is an index of player comparability. The last column would contain notes on what the player is really getting paid for.

    Pisani: DO NOT USE. Retrospective reward for shooting the lights out when it really mattered (we owed to Pisani’s heroics a big chunk of several hometown SCF gate revenues). Extraordinary perseverance, but even perseverance has its limits if your body decides to digest its own colon.

    The Sedins: DO NOT USE. Slow developing twins with a serious case of bro-love. Exceptional ability to get team in playoffs as a high seed. No proven ability to win games in the 3rd or 4th rounds. Took a homer discount to enjoy their comfortable life in the city that always drizzles, but never pours.

    Horcoff: USE WITH SARCASM ONLY. Willingness to provide veteran leadership on a team destined for suck. Able to soak up ridicule and abuse and still play the most difficult qual-comp to a near standstill.

    Parise and Suter: DO NOT USE. Took advantage obtaining UFA status in the last year of a CBA cycle to exploit a gaping loophole the league hoped no-one would be clever or ballsy or foolish enough to exploit.

    Kovalchuk: DO NOT USE. Bingo chip in a high-stakes poker game between Lou Lamoriello and Gary Bettman. Lou lost. Kovalchuk rolled through the gutter and scored a strike in an adjacent alley.

    Hemsky: Use carefully. Reduced to half a man in his contract year, takes a risky one year deal to find out if he can deliver as the man he was, finally surrounded by teammates who can share the load.

    Penner: Use carefully. Severe consistency issues, if not outright character issues. But everyone wants what he brings, if he brings it. Entices GMs to take mad gambles then A) publicly throw him under a bus, B) hide behind a double facepalm of self-effacing prayer recital, C) both of the above.

    Crosby: Use carefully. So far above everyone else when not concussed, having him on your team at salary maximum is a gift from the hockey gods. Rarely not concussed. Future uncertain.

    Zetterberg: Use carefully. The perfect peg lands in the perfect hole. Learned the art of taking the right chance with Lidstrom behind him, and if not Lidstrom, with the dish to Datsyuk as his bread and butter first down conversion. A great cog in a great machine.

    If you buy a house in a seller’s market, you pay extra. It doesn’t mean your house underperformed when its assessed value falls a few years later.

  63. commonfan14 says:

    DSF: The OIlers have now gone all in with a pair of tens.

    Not smart.

    It might be fair to say that the Oilers glanced at one of their cards, saw a face and then went all-in without even looking at their other card.

    They know they have something good and pounced, but there are certainly other factors and unknowns that could mess things up significantly.

    Risk is part of the game though, and I think the potential reward is worth it for these two.

  64. DSF says:

    commonfan14: It might be fair to say that the Oilers glanced at one of their cards, saw a face and then went all-in without even looking at their other card.

    They know they have something good and pounced, but there are certainly other factors and unknowns that could mess things up significantly.

    Risk is part of the game though, and I think the potential reward is worth it for these two.

    Yes, risk is part of the game but good GM’s make smart bets and bad GM’s make dumb bets.

    To carry the poker analogy a little further, the Oilers’ brain trust made these bets before waiting for the flop (the new CBA).

    While that can be a winning strategy from time to time, the player better be damn sure he’s got the best cards in his hand or he’s going to lose most of the time.

    With Hall having been oft injured and Eberle sporting an unsustainable shooting percentage, you have to wonder, Why now?

  65. Gerta Rauss says:

    Terry Jones on the Eberle signing-several quotes from Eberle in the article.

    http://www.edmontonsun.com/2012/08/30/oilers-establish-long-term-core-with-eberle-hall

  66. mc79hockey says:

    Remember when you wanted to pay Sam Gagner 5.5M per season? oops

    Hah, funny, BryanBryOil tried that one out for size over at HF a few days back. 1) My number was $4MM, not $5.5MM. 2) I specifically said I was outlining a structure as opposed to a specific number. 3) If you HAD used my specific numbers, Gagner would be signed for another five years at a cap hit of $4MM and salaries of $4MM, $2MM, $1.5MM, $1MM, $1MM. Think he’d net more in return than he will when the time getting him has to pay him $15MM-$17.5MM for those years?

    You still a big fan of the Adam Lind signing?

    Still like the rationale behind the contract. Worked out well in a lot of other places.

  67. frenchfrog says:

    Grrrr, I wish we had Billy Sweatt (Kesler version 2.0) and Shirokov (elite prospect).

  68. Ribs says:

    Is there any word of any clauses for either of Hall or Eberle’s contracts?

  69. "Steve Smith" says:

    Dalton: Wha?When did I conflate republican with conservative?

    You interpreted Lowetide’s remark as a slight against conservatives. Bookie and Tortoise evidently believe that it was a slight against Republicans, not conservatives. Therefore, they believed that you were complaining about an anti-conservative bias after observing an anti-Republican bias, thus conflating the two. Under your interpretation, of course, you were not doing so. One point supporting their interpretation is that, while Mitt Romney is undeniably a Republican, he’s probably only pretending to be a conservative (as the term is generally meant in American political discourse).

    Of course, all of you are wrong: Lowetide’s comment was a slight against neither conservatives nor Republicans, but against Mitt Romney and D S F (who I think is actually somewhat left-of-center, albeit presumably in a spectacularly intellectually dishonest way).

    Steve Smith
    Official Ascriber of Meaning to Lowetide’s Words
    Since Sometime this Afternoon

  70. maudite says:

    So I gotta repeat this because I think you are still coming down a bit harsh on DSF this round.

    Can Eberle progress and play a more well rounded game? I’d bet yes. Hall was bounced around more and played with the likes of Hemsky and Gagner no? This likely helps some of his possession numbers as compared to playing with an 18 offensive center.

    Will Hall actually fully recover from shoulder surgery and how likely is it that he’ll need the other one done?

    I don’t know. But even if contract limits are 5 years in the new CBA, I really don’t see that much of a good reason to not play out the final year of the contract, see where the CBA lines up and sign them to deals with less grey fog to projecting. If your hand isn’t forced why go all in?

  71. DSF says:

    maudite:
    So I gotta repeat this because I think you are still coming down a bit harsh on DSF this round.

    Can Eberle progress and play a more well rounded game?I’d bet yes.Hall was bounced around more and played with the likes of Hemsky and Gagner no?This likely helps some of his possession numbers as compared to playing with an 18 offensive center.

    Will Hall actually fully recover from shoulder surgery and how likely is it that he’ll need the other one done?

    I don’t know.But even if contract limits are 5 years in the new CBA, I really don’t see that much of a good reason to not play out the final year of the contract, see where the CBA lines up and sign them to deals with less grey fog to projecting.If your hand isn’t forced why go all in?

    A ray of light in the darkness.

  72. DSF says:

    "Steve Smith": You interpreted Lowetide’s remark as a slight against conservatives.Bookie and Tortoise evidently believe that it was a slight against Republicans, not conservatives.Therefore, they believed that you were complaining about an anti-conservative bias after observing an anti-Republican bias, thus conflating the two.Under your interpretation, of course, you were not doing so.One point supporting their interpretation is that, while Mitt Romney is undeniably a Republican, he’s probably only pretending to be a conservative (as the term is generally meant in American political discourse).

    Of course, all of you are wrong: Lowetide’s comment was a slight against neither conservatives nor Republicans, but against Mitt Romney and D S F (who I think is actually somewhat left-of-center, albeit presumably in a spectacularly intellectually dishonest way).

    Steve Smith
    Official Ascriber of Meaning to Lowetide’s Words
    Since Sometime this Afternoon

    No doubt anyone who could miss that the Mitt epithet was directed at me (no matter how inappropriate) has reading comprehension difficulties and should be forced to endure a week of DMW posts where getting through the dense prose is a lot of work and never worth the Tiptoe Through the Thesaurus.

    Describing me as anywhere near “left of centre” would also be a huge leap of logic and spectacularly inaccurate. although I confess I could never vote for someone named Mitt.

    Who calls a baby Mitt…or Oscar for that matter.

  73. Lowetide says:

    Steve said everything I meant.

  74. "Steve Smith" says:

    Lowetide,

    That goes without saying; didn’t you see my signature block?

  75. "Steve Smith" says:

    DSF: Describing me as anywhere near “left of centre” would also be a huge leap of logic and spectacularly inaccurate.

    Fair enough. It was a (n educated, I thought) guess based on some remarks you once made when we were discussing music. Given my own views, I actually take comfort in being wrong about that one.

  76. DeadmanWaking says:

    DSF:

    From time to time I think pretty hard about where a person such as yourself is coming from. Probably the closet I come to having any insight is from my string of exes where things got to the point where I would be invited to dinner with the family. You see things in family dynamics when you show up at your GF’s for dinner for the first time. I know you’re actually quite bright, but you choose to use it strangely. The Aviator wasn’t my favorite movie, but it does have a scene where Hughes has a rough go when invited to dinner with Hepburn’s family. Altman has done a few movies where this kind of social dynamic is captured, but I’m never sure with Altman that I get the point. I’ve seen dynamics where it doesn’t matter much the quality of what you have to say, so long as it’s brief. There’s tremendous competition over the dinner table to get a word in edgewise, so the participants develop a short-hand for the caustic put-down. The put-downs are not all that great if you stop to think about them, but in that context they’re darn effective. There’s so much competition to strike with the easy score that thoughtfulness goes right out the window. It only takes one word to throw out the name of a player. It takes a whole paragraph to recall to mind all the small reasons why the comparable might be inept.

    I have several agendas for participating here. One of them is therapy for my inner five year old. It’s my inner five year old that keeps throwing out the big words. Sorry about that.

    The other reason is that I’m genuinely interested in how the world works. And I don’t mean just having an understanding of the world that sounds better than whoever I’m standing beside. It takes me about a decade of hard work to get from a large woolly intuition about something to gaining enough command of the idea to express myself in pithy and forceful language. Many of the ideas I care most about I never mention, either online or with people I’m close to. They’re just too big and unstructured to interject into polite conversation. I don’t start to talk about my ideas until after a lot of distilling. They rarely get as small as I’d like simply because life itself doesn’t cooperate. Life itself is big and messy. With sufficient concentration, any idea, however great, can be made false. Evidently this doesn’t worry you nearly as much as it worries me.

    I work with software. Software never gets mad, but it certainly gets even. If I concentrate an idea until it becomes false, I get to stay up all night debugging my code. You might say even say it’s a professional credo: thou shalt not piss into the beer of the law of unintended consequence. I’ve done my time as the guy who gets called in to pick up the pieces. In software this is called “maintenance”. Maintenance either means A) patching the software until the people suffering under its flaws are no longer able to successfully identify the cause of their shitty experience, or B) getting right the second time what should have been done right in the first place.

    In software, concision of mind is like inflating your bike tires. You go faster. Excess concision is like inflating your bike tires until one or both tires go pop in the night. This usually happens after the software is delivered to production.

    It’s easy to score points on humans by reaching for the blades that sound a lot truer than they really are. Computers never fall for this. Ever. Computers have this nasty habit called “work to rule”. This is what they do pretty much all the time (unless the hardware guys hand you faulty memory chips). Computers take small conceptual errors and magnify them by billions or trillions. The first time you add A+B+C instead of A+C+B the answer is different at the 19′th decimal point. After a billion iterations, the answers are different in 18 digits out of 20 (the other two are coincidence). For most programs it doesn’t matter. For certain programs it does. In my professional life, my mind consists of lists of things that normally don’t matter, but might under certain conditions. It’s my job to know when those certain conditions could possibly occur. If you limit your thinking to what you think people are likely to do, you’ll get this wrong every time. People always do what the system designer doesn’t initially expect.

    Worrying about every small and obscure thing that could possibly go wrong, even though you often can’t imagine how this might happen, is probably not on your short list of desirable occupations. I’m just guessing, here.

    One of the things I like about Lowetide is that we’re all wrong all the time, and usually there’s pretty good humour in it. Sports is a lot like life. It defies accurate prediction. That’s why we all love Lowetide’s “reasonable expectations”–because there’s no such thing. Who wants to be reasonable, anyway? This is sports.

    But some of us more than others take achieving this simulacrum of reasonableness very seriously.

    (Glossary gratis for simulacrum: In his Sophist, Plato speaks of two kinds of image-making. The first is a faithful reproduction, attempted to copy precisely the original. The second is distorted intentionally in order to make the copy appear correct to viewers. He gives an example of Greek statuary, which was crafted larger on top than on bottom so that viewers from the ground would see it correctly. If they could view it in scale, they would realize it was malformed.)

    This is a lot like squeezing a giant bag of cats. I mainly delight in how the cats squirt out of the bag. The more earnestly you squeeze, the more amazing the cat-fur escape becomes.

    I had one close friend whose argument style was to start with the easiest thing he could say that he thought you might agree with (he did this with everyone so far as I witnessed). When we argued, he would start with the simplest thing, I would point out “that doesn’t work if A”. Then he would say the second easiest thing, and I would point “that doesn’t work if B”. We would quickly exhaust the alphabet, at which point he would cycle back to his first attempt. He only wanted quick agreement, and he was tireless in its pursuit.

    In the same office I had another friend of exactly the opposite temperament. He would only offer one objection to anything he disagreed with, always starting with the point he regarded as most fundamental. If you argued him out of his fundamental point (not often achieved) he immediately conceded the argument, whether or not he still had a quiver full of secondary objections.

    Probably the first guy was the more effective programmer, because he had more drive to accomplish things quickly. But he was also disruptive to the larger group dynamic with his scattershot argumentation style, which he seemed to like for its own sake. This I never figured out. Eventually we got into a situation where it was in our interest to work together in opposition to a third party who was making trouble. I declined. He was surprised. “But it’s in your personal interest.” Yes, I replied, but I told you I wasn’t here to win on those terms and I tried to discourage you from making choices that helped to lead us here. “But it’s in your personal interest.” Actually, it was in my personal interest to have you believe what I was telling you about my motives even if you found it implausible, but it’s too late for that now. So far as I could tell, he regarded forming an accurate psychological model of the vagaries of his coworker’s motivations as mentally inefficient. He could be using those brain cells for writing code.

    The problem with life is that you only get one trip (I’m an atheist, my combative friend wasn’t). What my friend was classing as inefficient I regard as the whole point of life’s journey. When I go to the afterlife I don’t believe in, the keeper of the pearly gates will not ask of me to list my impure thoughts (plentiful) but this instead: Were you paying attention? Was I paying attention to my difficult friend and co-worker? Yes, I was, for all the good it did me. I pretty much exhausted myself in the effort to find a principled place to agree to disagree. Maybe he thought he was exhausting himself trying to educate me on the contradictory nature of the motivations I expressed (I knew this from the outset, and I said as much, so his information/arguments didn’t change anything). We never did put an end to our dynamic of arguing in circles.

    I don’t begrudge your thesaurus-free existence. I don’t begrudge your delight in arguing the case in circles. But I will admit it goes against my grain when you lapse into self-parody. I work hard to understand how others see the world and it almost seems sometimes as if your purpose in life is to render this effort unprofitable. It’s not when there’s a long list of ways that your comparables could be inappropriate that I snap. It’s when my mind struggles to come up with a single way in which the comparable could be informative. It’s like a bait and switch with no bait. Where’s the fun in that?

    I use humour (or try to) to disguise the fact that I’m too earnest. I’m in the process of trying to tame my inner five year old. Thanks to Lowetide, I have a better idea of where he lives. Lowetide has an amazing gift to summon the universal (oh damn, I’m being earnest again). Maybe if I succeed my five year old will let me discontinue all these fancy words. In The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Swedish version) she seems driven to prove she doesn’t need anything from anyone, to the point of refusing to express gratitude she probably feels (the movie refuses to definitively answer this). When you lapse into self-parody, it starts to feel like your motive has more to do with proving something to yourself about the viability of your mode of engagement with life. Of course, this is just my own baggage and my own filter. I try to understand others, yet often I fail.

    It’s funny how in my recent readings, the only authors I’m enjoying are the ones who use words I don’t already know. Fresh thoughts tend to scamper around garbed in fresh language. I wish I had the power to dress fresh thoughts in regular language. Most good authors dream of this. Lincoln achieved it in his most memorable sentences (with great effort and craft). He also wrote in odd cadences: “Four score and seven years ago”. This doesn’t exactly send people scurrying off to their thesauri, but it’s odd (and oddly effective) nevertheless.

    If I meet my maker–in whom I don’t believe–before I wake, I bet I’ll catch hell for “simulacrum” (I can say this since I’m reading Borges; he seems to meet his maker or future self in every second story–and besides it’s a blue moon).

    Maker: You said you were paying attention. Me: Yeah, I did. Maker: Simulacrum? Me: Well, maybe there’s a few things I haven’t boiled down yet to a cogent residue. Maker: Cogent? Me: Oh come on, give me a break. Maker: Residue? Me: Well, what do you call this thing you’re conversing with now that you’ve turned my corporeal self into worm food? Maker: Wine, bread, fish, fruit … standard issue symbolism pretty much covers the basics. Me: So the drill up here is that we spend a lot of time talking about lunch? Maker: Lunch is deep.

  77. Lowetide says:

    DMW: Amazing post. I’ve read it three times and will read it again. Great stuff.

    DSF is like the father, son and holy spirit. He comes to us in different forms. It’s like water: water can be used from the tap, as ice for my man drinks or as snow for throwing. Sometimes DSF offers us pretty solid insight and moves the conversation straight down the line, and for that I believe this little corner of the world is better for it.

    Then there’s ‘martini DSF’ who prattles on laughably about David Booth, the hinterland and ten thousand maniacs. This is the DSF that makes the strongest imprint.

    Finally, there’s DSF the “Oilers fan” who shouts out “this Petry guy is a real dish” just to keep us guessing.

    It’s all on the internet so what the hell, at least he isn’t threatening people as some did when I was mod at hfboards. That place was well run exactly once–when Louise was the mod–that woman raised about 500 boys to men just by using patience and common sense. Seriously, she tamed lion’s in there nightly.

    Anyway, DSF. His goal isn’t to win, his goal is to do to us what Data did to roy Brocksmith in Star Trek’s Peak Performance episode.

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