OILERS RE 12-13: THE BLUE

I am projecting the Oilers defense to perform (offensively) about level with last season’s group. The addition of Justin Schultz is counter-balanced by the loss of Tom Gilbert and in terms of goals and points I think they’ll be about the same as last season.

2012-13 PROJECTIONS

NAME G A PTS +/-
JEFF PETRY 72 4 25 29 +4
RYAN WHITNEY  65 4 24 28 +8
JUSTIN SCHULTZ 75 7 19 26 nil
LADISLAV SMID 72 2 8 10 -5
NICK SCHULTZ 79 1 9 10 +3
THEO PECKHAM 55 1 5 6 +3
ANDY SUTTON 52 2 2 4 -6
COREY POTTER 16 0 2 2 -19
TAYLOR FEDUN 6 0 0 0 nil
COLTEN TEUBERT 5 0 0 0 nil
TOTALS 21 94 115  

 2011-12 TOTALS

NAME G A PTS
JEFF PETRY 73 2 23 25
COREY POTTER 62 4 17 21
RYAN WHITNEY  51 3 17 20
TOM GILBERT 47 3 14 17
LADISLAV SMID 78 5 10 15
ANDY SUTTON 52 3 7 10
NICK SCHULTZ 20 0 4 4
THEO PECKHAM 54 1 2 3
CAM BARKER 25 2 0 2
COLTEN TEUBERT 24 0 1 1
ALEX PLANTE 3 0 1 1
TAYLOR CHORNEY 3 0 0 0
BRYAN RODNEY 1 0 0 0
TOTALS 23 96 119

As you can see, the blue stays in place one season over another. This is just offense, so we are looking at only one area of the team. I think Justin Schultz and Jeff Petry represent a very bright future and if Ryan Whitney can stay healthy this team may have a trio of defenders who can play in any circumstance.

Overall, I have the Oilers offense increasing smartly season over season:

  • 2011-12 GF: 207
  • 2012-13 GF PROJECTION: 224

This would represent another large gain season over season (+17), almost identical to the actual improvement from 10-11 to this past season (+16). 224 goals would represent the highest total since 2008-09 (228). That was the final season of Craig MacTavish.

I’m projecting strong seasons for Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Strong but below-Calder seasons for Nail Yakupov and Justin Schultz. Market corrections for Jordan Eberle and Corey Potter. And please rememeber this is ‘reasonable excpecations’; I don’t hate Jordan Eberle, but am concerned that his outstanding season puts him in a spot where the fanbase is extremely likely to be disappointed with a reasonable performance in 12-13.

PROJECTED ‘RE’ SCORING 2012-13

NAME G A PTS +/-
TAYLOR HALL 66 35 32 67 +14
RYAN NUGENT HOPKINS 72 22 45 67 +15
JORDAN EBERLE 75 24 31 55 -21
SAM GAGNER  74 19 36 55 +8
ALES HEMSKY 60 14 40 54 +18
NAIL YAKUPOV 77 18 26 44 Nil
RYAN SMYTH 69 16 22 38 -8
JEFF PETRY 72 4 25 29 +4
RYAN WHITNEY  65 4 24 28 +8
SHAWN HORCOFF 75 11 16 27 -7
JUSTIN SCHULTZ 75 7 19 26 nil
MAGNUS PAAJARVI  67 5 16 21 +13
RYAN JONES 70 12 8 20 -13
ERIC BELANGER 77, 10 10 20 +4
TEEMU HARTIKAINEN 50 9 8 17 +12
LADISLAV SMID 72 2 8 10 -5
NICK SCHULTZ 79 1 9 10 +3
BEN EAGER 50 4 4 8 -5
LENNART PETRELL 53 4 4 8 -1
THEO PECKHAM 55 1 5 6 +3
ANDY SUTTON 52 2 2 4 -6
DARCY HORDICHUK  44 0 2 2 -1
COREY POTTER 16 0 2 2 -19
TAYLOR FEDUN 6 0 0 0 nil
COLTEN TEUBERT 5 0 0 0 nil
TOTAL 224 394 618

Up next: the goalies and the GA number.

NATION RADIO hits the airwaves at noon today Edmonton time, on Team 1260. You can email nationradio@theteam1260.com, use twitter @ItsNationRadio or Lowetide_ or leave a comment or question below.

Scheduled to appear:

  • Tom Lynn, agent and advisor for NHL players and prospects. We’ll talk to Tom about the CBA negotiations, the large number of free agents still unsigned, the impact a lockout would have on players at all levels, and loopholes in agreements.
  • Scott Reynolds from Copper and Blue and NHL Numbers. Scott is a brilliant contributor to the Oilogosphere and we’ll discuss a range of issues including Nail Yakupov and Justin Schultz; The terrific NHL Numbers team by team previews and the Oilers at the draft.
  • Andrey Osadchenko, our Russian reporter who has already given us great insight into Nail Yakupov. We’ll talk about the Russian phenom, the Canada-Russia series and the city of Yaroslavl and their recovery from the air tragedy of one year ago.
  • Kent Wilson, Nations Overlord and frequent contributor to the Nation Radio show. We’ll talk about the Flames, NW division, the JayBo rumors and ‘the gamble that is Jiri Hudler.’

We have some other guests who have not yet confirmed and will update as we roll along. Your questions are welcome, hope you can tune in and if you have something to say (or ask) don’t hesitate to get in touch.

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32 Responses to "OILERS RE 12-13: THE BLUE"

  1. justDOit says:

    The interview with Brad McCrimmon’s dad during this Rus/Can series was interesting. That he actually joked about the safety of Russian air travel when he accepted the coaching job in Yaroslavl is more than a little scary. I would like to know what the KHL has done to improve the safety of it’s employees.

  2. jonrmcleod says:

    LT, it’s interesting that you foresee the team scoring 17 more goals this season than last season but the defense, as a whole, having 4 fewer points–even after adding Justin Schultz, who is considered to be gifted offensively. With the team scoring more goals and Schultz receiving minutes instead of Sutton, Barker, etc., I would think that the defense would have at least a slight increase in points.

  3. Lowetide says:

    Except that they traded Tom Gilbert for Nick Schultz.

  4. jonrmcleod says:

    Lowetide,

    True. But if the team is scoring that many more goals, shouldn’t the D benefit from a few additional second assists? I honestly don’t know how often a team’s increase in goals leads to an increase in D points, but it sounds right.

  5. Lowetide says:

    Dmen get a lot of points on the PP, I have only three playing significant PP minutes. Oilers just don’t have the horses back there after the Gilbert trade.

  6. jonrmcleod says:

    Lowetide,

    However Gilbert only had 22 total points last season–26 the previous season–and you project J. Schultz to have 26.

  7. Lowetide says:

    I don’t really know what you’re saying, Jon. Last seaon, the Oilers had significant PP minutes from Potter, Gilbert, Whitney and 93 minutes from Petry. Plus the Barker minutes which were significant but he only played 25 games. This season I have Whitney, Schultz and Petry getting most of those minutes, but some of them going to forwards.

    I also don’t have Laddy Smid scoring 5 goals.

    Don’t really know what else I can say, except to reiterate that many of the points a defenseman gets come on the PP.

  8. Rondo says:

    Klefbom expects to join Oilers for 2013-14

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=639569

  9. justDOit says:

    Rondo,

    I think I’d rather see him develop in OKC, but at least he’s not being rushed into the NHL too soon.

  10. jonrmcleod says:

    Lowetide,

    I guess what I’m saying is that, based on Gilbert’s point production the last two seasons, his loss should not greatly affect the Oilers’ D total points this coming season. Your RE for J. Schultz is higher than Gilbert’s point total last season. I’m not necessarily disagreeing with you on your RE for the D’s total points, but in light of your projection of 17 additional goals by the team, Gilbert’s low point total last season (17 with Oilers/5 with Wild), the addition of Schultz to balance out Gilbert’s loss, and the addition of N. Schultz (who should score more than Barker), I have a hard time thinking the D will have fewer points in 2012-13 (barring the season not starting on time).

  11. Lowetide says:

    I see where we disconnect. You like Nick Schultz’s offense more than I do.

  12. jonrmcleod says:

    Lowetide,

    Well, I don’t like N. Schultz’s offense, but I think he should have a point total somewhere between 12 and 15 points (a little higher than your 10). I see J. Schultz being Gilbert’s replacement (at least in terms of point totals), N. Schultz being an upgrade over Barker and his injury replacements, Petry hopefully continuing to improve, and Whitney (the big question mark) playing a few more games. Add in your projection of the Oilers scoring 17 more goals, and that’s why I say I expect the D to have at least a couple more points in 2012-13.

  13. jp says:

    That’s not such a terrible looking team :)

    I wonder if they look more seriously about bringing in another D now that Klefbom has made the decision to play another year in Sweden? May be they do nothing, but makes sense that they’d wait on him before making a move.

  14. leadfarmer says:

    Hey LT, I normally like your conservative numbers for players and it takes a lot to get me worked up about a number, well at least enough to comment. I am very curious who you have Eberle playing with that he has a -21. This number is 30-40 points lower then his potential centers and 20-35 points lower than his other winger. Even if he plays with Horcoff he is more than 10 points lower. The only player in his range is Potter which leads me to believe that you have them together as a defensive pairing which would be a terrible idea.

  15. leadfarmer says:

    The team is also a collective plus 16 when last year they were a collective -104. That would be an amazing improvement over one year considering they have the same players plus rookies.

  16. leadfarmer says:

    Looks like Klefbom wants to stay home for another year. Homefully he continues developing there and comes over next year or the following and gives us a solid top 4 d on ELC.

  17. Dave Casselman says:

    I have N. Schultz down for 15+ points this year, reasons being: i) For the first time in his career he’ll be playing in a system that is far more aggressively offensive, and; ii) His ice time may go up under the new coach, maybe even a little bit of PP if there are injuries. ( I think he and Kreuger are peas and carrots.)

    I also have to believe Eberle’s +/- is a typo. Doesn’t make sense otherwise.

  18. jp says:

    The +/- number is points relative to last year.

  19. Lowetide says:

    Plus minus in the graph above represents plus or minus in point totals from the previous season. I’m so sorry for any confusion.

  20. Dominoiler says:

    Thanks for the +/- clarification on the last chart, LT.. it was quite confusing at first..
    With that said, I dont know how you can figure eberle’s assist total is going to go down when the young guns are going to be that much more potent.. 66 points, fine.. cut back on goal scoring.. but -21 points, seems a little too meager of a prediction.. anyways, enough has probably been said about all this..

    Will be an exciting year, none the less..

  21. TheOtherJohn says:

    Pretty balanced LT.

    Think people here forget we have the exact same defense that led to the Oilers being 29th last year. Plus J Schultz. Now if Schultz gets 8 goals and 40 points, all RE are off. but, essentially, we delete Gilbert and Barker and add the Schultz boys. Not sure we add much offense overall.

    The totality of the anticipated Oiler improvement is tied to the young gun getting better, the Vets treading water and Yak and J Schultz being very solid contributors. Possible? Absolutely? Probblr? Not a chance. 20-25th

  22. jb says:

    I don’t see how it’s reasonable to expect Eberle’s numbers to fall off a cliff while Hall and Hopkins continue trending upwards.

    Sure his shooting % might drop a few points, but can’t we expect more shots?

    It’s official, Eberle’s the new Smid. Please don’t hate Eberle forever LT.

  23. Woodguy says:

    jb:
    I don’t see how it’s reasonable to expect Eberle’s numbers to fall off a cliff while Hall and Hopkins continue trending upwards.

    Sure his shooting % might drop a few points, but can’t we expect more shots?

    It’s official, Eberle’s the new Smid. Please don’t hate Eberle forever LT.

    Because Eberle is going to play with RNH and Yak on the left side and Yak will get a bunch of Eberle’s touches from last year. It might be Harski or MPS, but my money is on Yak and that trio will get the OZ push.

    Hall will play in all situation with Gagner and Hemsky.

    That’s how RNH and Hall can go up and Eberle can go down.

  24. jp says:

    jb:

    I don’t see how it’s reasonable to expect Eberle’s numbers to fall off a cliff while Hall and Hopkins continue trending upwards.

    Sure his shooting % might drop a few points, but can’t we expect more shots?

    It’s official, Eberle’s the new Smid. Please don’t hate Eberle forever LT.

    If that means Eberle’s breakout season is yet to come, and that he’s going to score more goals in his 6th season that in the previous 5 combined, I’m fine with him being the new Smid. MVP 2015-16.

    And to be fair, LT doesn’t hate Smid any more.

    I do think Eberle will have a few more assists than the RE, but fully agree with the spirit – he is almost certainly in for regression in 12-13.

  25. hags9k says:

    I agree with LT here, but here’s hoping J. Schultz blows away Gilbert’s best season.

  26. rickithebear says:

    When we had 3 of Gilbert, Barker, Injured whitney, Tuebert in the dset Dubnyk was
    1W – 13L – 1 OTL .889 Sv%

    when we had 3 of Smid, Petry, schultz, sutton in our top 4 we were
    18W – 6L – 1 OTL .930 SV%
    It is ggod to Know that there is no chance of gilbert and Barker being in our top 4 again.

    we lacked top 4 protection last year.

    Gregor’s converstion says whitney is training more effectively.

    Smid- Petry
    Whitney – Schultz

    gives us 4 dmen who have shown they can handle 40 games of 1st comp.

    Sutton -J. schultz

    Sutton faced 2nd comp last year and was not buried.
    There is a belief j. schultz is capable of 2nd Comp.

    our 2 injury case sees us running a d core of

    Whitney – N. schultz
    Sutton – J. schultz
    Peckham – Potter

    3 examples of d sets early last year.

    Oct 9
    Smid – Gilbert
    Sutton – Barker
    Peckham Petry

    Oct 25
    Smid – Gilbert
    Sutton – Barker
    Whitney – Potter

    Nov 10
    Smid – Gilbert
    Sutton- Barker
    Peckham – Petry

    It takes our top pairing to be injured before we are at the level of our dcore at the start of last season.

    Nuf Said!

  27. "Steve Smith" says:

    rickithebear:
    When we had 3 of Gilbert, Barker, Injured whitney, Tuebert in the dsetDubnyk was
    1W – 13L – 1 OTL .889 Sv%

    when we had 3 of Smid, Petry, schultz, sutton in our top 4 we were
    18W – 6L – 1 OTL.930 SV%

    Cum hoc ergo firetruck.

  28. Woodguy says:

    “Steve Smith”: Cum hoc ergo firetruck.

    Did you take into account that I was wearing plaid for all the Gilbert games and not after he left?

    Sheesh.

  29. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: Did you take into account that I was wearing plaid for all the Gilbert games and not after he left?

    Sheesh.

    Typical Steve. Building an ersatz firetruck.

  30. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear,

    Even people who think players can affect ONSV% admit that the effect is so small for most players that it can’t even be counted accurately. It doesn’t exceed the noise.

    Even for these guys, they see that with the best players possible, it amounts to 5ish goals per SEASON, or about .0018 swing in SV%.

    http://hockeyanalysis.com/2012/02/09/defenders-effect-on-save/

    You have players effecting SV% .040.

    Lordy.

    You need to start seeing the forest for the trees.

    http://vhockey.blogspot.ca/2010/05/forest-v-trees.html

  31. Jamie says:

    Woodguy,

    Woodguy:
    rickithebear,

    Even people who think players can affect ONSV% admit that the effect is so small for most players that it can’t even be counted accurately.It doesn’t exceed the noise.

    Even for these guys, they see that with the best players possible, it amounts to 5ish goals per SEASON, or about .0018 swing in SV%.

    http://hockeyanalysis.com/2012/02/09/defenders-effect-on-save/

    You have players effecting SV% .040.

    Lordy.

    You need to start seeing the forest for the trees.

    http://vhockey.blogspot.ca/2010/05/forest-v-trees.html

    So is that saying that if if DD had played behind the defense core of St. Louis or Phoenix he would have the same save% as if he played behind the guys the Oilers had last year?

  32. Oil On Whyte's Weekend Link Extravaganza - Oil On Whyte - An Edmonton Oilers Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More says:

    [...] Lowetide – Oilers RE 12-13:  The Blue:  Scoring up, defence about what you’d expect. [...]

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