RE 12-13: DEVAN DUBNYK

Devan Dubnyk won the starting job last season and was rewarded with a contract that reflects it. Edmonton enters 12-13 with DD as #1 and a rickety backup in Nikolai Khabibulin. This could be a white knuckle season.

RE 12-13: 55, 2.60 .917

  1. So he runs in place? A slight improvement in GA and SP, mostly owing to a better save percentage 4×5. I can’t believe he’ll have another season like the one past in the discipline.
  2. How bad was it? Dubnyk’s SP numbers by discipline: .927 (tied for 13th in the NHL) at evens; .854 on the PK and .862 on the PP.
  3. What about the previous season? 10-11? EV SP was .921; on the PK it was .889 and on the PP (just 20 SA) was 1.
  4. Is he a #1 goalie? Yes. We don’t know if he’ll be #1 for a year, 5 years or a decade but Devan Dubnyk has made it to the point where he’s a #1 goalie on an NHL team.
  5. How many have the Oilers produced? Dubnyk makes three.
  6. Come the hell on! Okay, list another aside from Fuhr, Moog and DD.
  7. Uh, well, Markkanen, Deslauriers, Reaugh? Nah. Devan Dubnyk is the 4th goalie drafted by Edmonton to play in 100 or more NHL games. The first three are Fuhr, Moog and Markkanen.
  8. Incredible. Trying living through it.
  9. Oilers have always had a good to great goalie, though. Not really true, but I know what you’re saying. Moog, Fuhr, Ranford, Joseph, Roloson.  They’ve had some good ones.
  10. Nik didn’t really work out. No, we’ll talk about him in his RE.
  11. Why hasn’t Dubnyk grabbed the job? Well he’s trying to win the thing with the management group growing the future on the back of losses. I can’t imagine a tougher road for a goalie than trying to backstop a team hellbent on the lottery. Dubnyk’s best comp is probably Gilles Meloche–they both played for doomed teams made more pitiful because of subpar management.
  12. Maybe that’s why the Oilers brought him along this way. I think that’s how it worked out, but to suggest the Oilers had a plan for him? Man, I can’t see that train of thought holding water. Anyway, his NHL career has been doing pretty well despite the calamity that is the current team.
  13. That sure was a big contract he got. Yes. I thought it was too much, but others have convinced me it is in line with other starters. I do wonder if the deal puts him in goaltending company that leaves him as ‘one of these things is not like the other’ but we have two more years to find out.
  14. Should the Oilers be trying to acquire a strong backup or a starter? I believe it is unwise to rely on Nikolai Khabibulin. However, for me the fear of having a strong backup was reduced when the club signed Yann Danis. He could be a key player for the Oilers in 12-13.
  15. Yann Danis? Yes.
  16. What does Dubnyk need to do in order to become the goalie of the Oilers’ ‘Hall era’? DD needs to be more consistent and improve that 4×5 SP. We can get overly fancy on this stuff but he needs to stop the puck. He did that at even strength and did it in front of a young and at times frightening defensive unit. It’s there for him.
  17. Are you cheering for him? Oh yeah, for sure. I liked him all the way back to Kamloops, a team whose major talent was turning a 4×5 into a 3×5.
  18. He has his detractors. Yes. Darren Pang is the most famous: “I did a poll of four NHL GMs about Devan Dubnyk and asked them what they thought his upside would be as a #1 goaltender. The answer coming back is: No. And that’s based on his lack of lateral movement. He’s a competitor, he’s working hard, he’s winning over his teammates but at this particular point, no, not a #1 goaltender. I would say there’s at least five or six goaltenders in the same age group who have got more upside as a number one.”
  19. So that isn’t good. We’ve read that criticism before, though. Dubnyk is not a finished product and that’s one reason why the contract was a surprise. Still, I think DD is a guy you proceed with and the Oilers should know by the time the current contract expires.
  20. What’s your bet? I think he’ll be the Oilers starter for most of this decade.

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97 Responses to "RE 12-13: DEVAN DUBNYK"

  1. Henry says:

    I didn’t realize his sp 4×5 was so poor particularly when the pkmin front of him improved some. I like dd a lot but the pk number have to improve for the oilers to do anything in the playoffs.

    One thing I like about him is his skating and footwork on shootouts. With tthat and the good shooters up front this team could get a few extra Bettman points in a playoff race. Matthieu Garon and ganger/horc/hemmer took a very bad team to the bubble a few years back.

  2. Bushed says:

    Take Darren Pang’s comments with a huge grain of salt. If you look at his “career” as a backup goalie, I think you’ll find it quite unspectacular. Seems to me he got lit up pretty badly by the Oilers in the few games he played against them, so there’s a heavy sour grapes factor to consider. Pang has never liked the Oilers and I can’t remember him saying anything positive about them, so. . .

    I was surprised to see Doobie’s numbers in the top 13 at evens. On last year’s team that is encouraging. I too thought his contract a little on the rich side, but I’m hoping he can prove me wrong.

    Henry raises an interesting point about Garon. I’m still a little perplexed at why we let him go?

  3. Thinker says:

    I think hes moog. Which begs the question- wheres Fuhr?

  4. vishcosity says:

    A few years back I was coaching my boy’s 3 on 3 team. For kicks, one game we put our goalie out as a forward, and a d man in net. The only thing I said before the game was to make sure Brandon scored. They passed the puck to him all game and finally in the third he totally roofed a killer snipe. Place erupted, it was awesome.

    He tended to set up shop in certain key locations. Perfect reads on the give and go, smart simple passes, just super smart hockey. On the bench we were laughing out loud, how he could make it look so easy. I reminded them after that some say hockey is 10% physical and 90% mental.

    Given all the money pro sports spend on physical development, between the trainers and the ice time and the weight rooms, if that addage is true, then I wonder if they should be spending 9x that amount that on psychologists. Expose these kids to 20 different mind coaches each, and then let them pick one as a trainer.

    Magnus seems the guy who, down by one, gets the puck on his stick with 6 seconds left and rips it wide. Horcoff has some of that, Ethan Moreau before him. RNH is the guy falling into the corner but able to somehow still pass between his legs to a moving target behind him. Taylor Hall had closed the score 10 minutes prior by finding another gear that no one was expecting or able to match, and if Hopkin’s pass hits Jordan Eberle, somehow he sees it like a fat kid who finds chocolate pudding. Magnus seems the type to clench up while 14 finds it hilarious.

    I met a guy in Northern Alberta who had lived on the side of a mountain and hunted on horseback with a bow and arrow. While I can’t really imagine any of that, I wonder if a week with that guy would change Magnus forever.

    Is it really 90% mental? Because if the game really is anywhere close to that, what I see in Devan Dubnyk is the pretty consistent ability to deliver on the clutch save thing. He seems to have a mindset for winning something like Jordan Eberle has for scoring. His movement doesn’t need to be excellent to win the Stanley, he needs to save the puck when the game is on the line. He needs the killer instinct, he needs the smarts to read the play and just be in the right place at the right time. If he is sprawling the wrong way, the best lateral movement in the world isn’t going to save the puck.

    Last spring Dubnyk single handedly won a game in Anaheim. I remember JDD ripped one off from the Rangers at MSG. Those are the things that win cups, both clearly have it for at least one game each in the regular season, if Dubnyk can build the cold blooded killer instinct as the historical(?) significance rises, if those climb together, as it seems to for Eberle, if his ability to make key saves rises as the pressure mounts, then maybe the Oil have their guy. Can they know before investing 50 more starts? Even Markinen won 3 SCF games. What they needed was for him to steal game 2. They needed him to have the mind of Taylor Hall.

  5. justDOit says:

    Pang? I thought this was a serious hockey blog – and I’m reading about what Darren Pang ‘thinks’? I realize you’re trying to present a two-sided argument, but was there nobody else? If not, make something up.

    Yes, big goalies probably have the toughest time with lateral movement. But in watching DD play, I don’t see his side-to-side as that bad, and will gladly take that as a trade-off for a 6’6″ goalie.

    If LTM don’t bring in another goalie before the season starts, it will probably hurt the OKC Barons more than the Oilers. When NK goes down to injury, Danis is more than capable of filling in, but who does Nelson turn to? There is some expectation now for OKC to be a winner, but without their star goalie from last season, that’s going to be difficult.

  6. Lowetide says:

    We may not like it, but Pang’s comments were in regard to 4 NHL GMs. He’s not going to lie about it, so we can ignore it or address it.

    As an aside, I’m not sure what a ‘serious’ hockey blog should look like, but delight in the fact that this one doesn’t qualify. :-)

  7. godot10 says:

    vishcosity:

    Magnus seems the guy who, down by one, gets the puck on his stick with 6 seconds left and rips it wide.Horcoff has some of that, Ethan Moreau before him.RNH is the guy falling into the corner but able to somehow still pass between his legs to a moving target behind him.Taylor Hall had closed the score 10 minutes prior by finding another gear that no one was expecting or able to match, and if Hopkin’s pass hits Jordan Eberle, somehow he sees it like a fat kid who finds chocolate pudding.Magnus seems the type to clench up while 14 finds it hilarious.

    I met a guy in Northern Alberta who had lived on the side of a mountain and hunted on horseback with a bow and arrow.While I can’t really imagine any of that, I wonder if a week with that guy would change Magnus forever.

    You realize the Paajarvi scored the most critical goal of the OKC playoffs, and set up the 2nd most critical goal. Who do you think was primarily responsible for the burst of goals from Vandevelde.

    That doesn’t sound like a guy who is clenching up.

    Paajarvi is mostly a coaching project. Renney was uninterested in taking up the project because Paajarvi didn’t fit into Renney’s predetermined and set in stone mold for how to construct a team.

  8. justDOit says:

    Lowetide,

    Right you are, LT. Pang is one of a handful of sports commentators that I can not tolerate. Sorry for that.

  9. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide,

    As an aside, I’m not sure what a ‘serious’ hockey blog should look like, but delight in the fact that this one doesn’t qualify.

    Perhaps you should wear glasses, not smile, and speak in a deep even tone like Steve Martin did in LA Story when they changed from Wakcy Weather/News to “The Serious News”

  10. Lowetide says:

    Just do it: No worries. I think it was an asshole move to put it out there, too.

  11. Woodguy says:

    I was looking at DD the other day and came to a similar conclusion to you. .915-9.17 ish.

    PK is certainly the concern and I think DD’s lack of lateral movement has been discussed before as the source of this poor 4v5 number.

    In 10/11 however he posted a .921 5v5, and .889 4v5 for a .916 total in 35 games, so its not like his 4v5 issues have been permanent with no solution in sight.

    What are you thinking for Shots Against this year for the Oilers?

    Last year the Oilers were 19th in the NHL with 30.7SA/gm.

    If they can bring that down to 29.7 and have a solid .916SV% for 55ish games, AND have non-horrible back up goaltending then even using your EBERLE-HATRED-FILLED RE: The Oilers can be a +4 or so Goal Differential team, which is on the edge of the playoffs.

    They really, really, really need another good Dman who drives the puck the right way against tough comp.

    If Tambellini doesn’t add that player this summer is failure for him as not making the move that might get this team to the playoffs and start accruing playoff experience is a disaster.

    He did nothing to get Yak and Shultz the Younger except putting a horrible team on the ice.

    Yak’s a high pick and the Oilers were attractive because they are full of high picks with gaping holes on the D which would be attractive to a guy like Shultz for attaining his bonuses and growing with a talented core.

    The “Tambellini is doing his job if the Oilers are horrible” days are over.

    He needs to make this team better.

    I am not certain he can do it.

    I hope he can.

  12. Lowetide says:

    WG: Pretty damn close. I don’t have the Oilers improving a lot in SA/60, but Dubnyk’s better number has them close to your +4.

    And I agree, Tambellini needs to prove he has a pulse.

    This team is much closer to the playoffs than I thought they were before doing the RE. If my hatred of Eberle ever gets resolved, this team could go places!

  13. Woodguy says:

    Actually I had the Oilers at +4 GD with 30.7SA/gm using your RE GF and .917 DD 57 games and .902 other 25 games.

  14. Lowetide says:

    That’s pretty freaky. My other 2 G’s have a SP of .9026. One of them has a SA a little lower than the other.

  15. DSF says:

    Lowetide:
    WG: Pretty damn close. I don’t have the Oilers improving a lot in SA/60, but Dubnyk’s better number has them close to your +4.

    And I agree, Tambellini needs to prove he has a pulse.

    This team is much closer to the playoffs than I thought they were before doing the RE. If my hatred of Eberle ever gets resolved, this team could go places!

    You really need to address SF.

    The Oilers were 29th in the league and yet were able to come in at 20th for GF.

    That will likely bite them in the ass sooner rather than later.

  16. hunter1909 says:

    Methinks Dubnyk can, given intelligent defence(think 2006 finals post-Roloson Oilers) play reasonable NHL goal. From the front he moves like a giant spider but if memory serves he’s HOPELESS outside the goal area.

    That sort of thing.

  17. BrazilianOil says:

    Nobody believes in a great starting season as last year by NK?

  18. Lowetide says:

    No. No one.

  19. Woodguy says:

    DSF: You really need to address SF.

    The Oilers were 29th in the league and yet were able to come in at 20th for GF.

    That will likely bite them in the ass sooner rather than later.

    This is true.

  20. Woodguy says:

    DSF: You really need to address SF.

    The Oilers were 29th in the league and yet were able to come in at 20th for GF.

    That will likely bite them in the ass sooner rather than later.

    I’d have to crawl through LT’s REs and look at scoring rates last year, but he did ding KINGEBERLE a bit for having his SH% coming back to earth.

  21. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    No. No one.

    Steve Tambellini, General Manager of a National Hockey League team, stated that the Oilers’ true ability was reflected in their 11 game start where Nik posted his .962

    True story.

  22. Wolfie says:

    It’s amazing how in this picture there is still a ton of room to put the puck in the net on a guy that’s 6’6″ tall.

    Along the ice is a no go but that 5-hole is enormous and there’s a ton of room upstairs. I remember sitting 7th row behind the net a few years ago in Vancouver. JDD started the game and got yanked and Dubnyk played the rest of the way. I was in behind the Oilers net for 2 periods. I think the final wsa 8-3 and Vancouver was killing it. I think 6 or 7 of the goals were just under the bar and from the spot I was sitting I could see the openings and knew what was coming each time.

    I’m a guy who’s 5’5″ tall and have played goal all my life. I’ve been beaten high a couple of times…(ok more than a couple) but that’s not something I expected seeing on guys that are a full foot taller than me.

    The more I thought about it the more I realized that a) that’s probably the only place to beat these monsters and b) why in the heck don’t these guys challenge the shooter a little more?

    Tim Thomas has been arguably the most successful goalie over the last half decade and still you don’t see anyone in the league trying to emulate his aggressiveness. I find that mentality severely lacking in most NHL goalies these days. Nobody forces the issue it’s way too passive. I think it would benefit a guy like Dubnyk to be a little more aggressive towards shooters. I don’t think he has Thomas’ athletic ability and he doesn’t need to be as aggressive given his size but he could show a little more and I think his numbers would improve.

    I would have to agree with the mental part of the game being an untapped area. The brain is such a hard thing to measure and it’s difficult to pin down what motivates people. The best salesmen are always able to find hot buttons that convince people to buy their products.

    I think Magnus and Dubnyk need a little selling on the fact that if they do a few small things and “believe” they can the rewards will be great. If Magnus cut to the net like Hall could you imagine the scoring chances he would generate?!?

    I would definitely look at investing in psychiatry and counselling for the Oilers as a way to find higher levels of ability. Self belief is probably the most powerful tool that no one really knows how to trigger.

  23. Woodguy says:

    DSF,

    You’ve disputed the predictive ability of Corsi before.

    Here’s a couple things that are interesting reading.

    PDF WARNING: http://www.hockeyanalytics.com/Research_files/NHL-Expected-Goals-Brian-Macdonald.pdf

    http://vhockey.blogspot.ca/2009/05/possession-is-everything.html

  24. godot10 says:

    Woodguy:

    They really, really, really need another good Dman who drives the puck the right way against tough comp.

    If Tambellini doesn’t add that player this summer is failure for him as not making the move that might get this team to the playoffs and start accruing playoff experience is a disaster.

    He did nothing to get Yak and Shultz the Younger except putting a horrible team on the ice.

    He needs to make this team better.

    I am not certain he can do it.

    I hope he can.

    It isn’t easy to acquire good defenseman. The “geniuses” in Detroit still haven’t replaced Lidstrom. Methot cost Nick Foligno. And Luke Schenn cost JVR. D that the Oilogosphere consider 3rd pairing guys.

    Lots of teams are looking for top 4 D. Detroit, Philly, Nashville. It is not a buyer’s market.

    I agree they need a defenseman, but one might not shake loose till after the new CBA gets signed, and we might not like the price in who the Oilers have to give up.

  25. jp says:

    BrazilianOil,

    Lowetide,

    Haha. True, no one but ST believes. I do think his start to last season demonstrates that it’s within the realm of possibility that Khabi COULD be a reasonable backup this season though. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not suggesting it’s likely, or reasonable to expect Khabi to be replacement level, but I wouldn’t be that shocked if he pulled off something like last years .910 SV% in 20-25GP. We certainly shouldn’t expect it, and I agree that a better contingency plan would be nice, but it really wouldn’t be that unlikely.

  26. rich says:

    Not that it really matters at this point but a couple of things re: DD.

    First, I think you are bang on LT in that the Oilers have not had a plan for him. Renney started last year with him but very quickly pulled the plug and gave him no chance to work thru a slump and earn the job. Maybe it was pressure to win, or I would suggest a lack of confidence but Renney never gave him a chance to win that job and quickly moved to Khabibulin. Khabi rewarded Renney early with an unsustainably hot run, and Renney ran him into the ground.

    DD only got the job back (he didn’t win it), when Renney’s realized well after everyone else had that Khabi just couldn’t be counted on to consistently make the routine saves, let alone steal the team a win (which is essential when you’re playing with a defense that was that bad in front of him).

    Consequently, along with his mismanagement of Paajarvi and Belanger, I think the misuse of DD was the third strike that made canning Renney essential for this team to improve.

    I really hope that DD comes out and establishes himself early but will be watching to see if he struggles, how the new coach handles things. Sometimes I really think goalies are like young pitchers. You have to learn how to work thru the tough times to get better.

  27. Woodguy says:

    Here’s last year’s team shooting percentages:

    Tampa Bay Lightning 10.4
    Nashville Predators 10.3
    Pittsburgh Penguins 9.8
    Toronto Maple Leafs 9.8
    Boston Bruins 9.8
    Philadelphia Flyers 9.8
    New Jersey Devils 9.6
    Edmonton Oilers 9.5
    New York Rangers 9.5
    Washington Capitals 9.5
    Ottawa Senators 9.4
    Chicago Blackhawks 9.3
    Vancouver Canucks 9.3
    Detroit Red Wings 9.1
    Winnipeg Jets 8.9
    Dallas Stars 8.8
    Anaheim Ducks 8.8
    Calgary Flames 8.8
    Montreal Canadiens 8.8
    Buffalo Sabres 8.8
    Phoenix Coyotes 8.6
    Carolina Hurricanes 8.5
    St. Louis Blues 8.2
    Florida Panthers 8.1
    Columbus Blue Jackets 8.1
    New York Islanders 8.1
    San Jose Sharks 7.9
    Colorado Avalanche 7.7
    Minnesota Wild 7.6
    Los Angeles Kings 7.5

  28. DSF says:

    Woodguy: I’d have to crawl through LT’s REs and look at scoring rates last year, but he did ding KINGEBERLE a bit for having his SH% coming back to earth.

    The OIlers’ GF also was buoyed by a top 5 PP ranking which, history tells us, cannot be relied upon.

    The top 5 ranked PP teams from the last 5 seasons:

    11/12
    NSH
    SJS
    EDM
    VCR
    PIT

    10/11
    VCR
    SJS
    ANA
    CHI
    DET

    09/10
    WSH
    CHI
    SJS
    PHX
    VCR

    08/09
    DET
    WSH
    SJS
    BOS
    ANA

    07/08
    MON
    PHA
    DET
    PITT
    TBL

    You, of course, can argue that the Oilers have some of the best PP personnel in the league so it’s likely the PP will continue to produce at a high level but, based on actual results, you shouldn’t count on it.

  29. BrazilianOil says:

    i will be no surprized if NK start in opening night. Don ‘t think is the good option. Just is RE.

  30. jp says:

    DSF,

    That’s really not so variable. SJS top 5 last 4 years, VCR the last 3. DET there 3 of 5 yrs. CHI and WSH there 2 years in a row. For sure there’s some movement, but this doesn’t show that top PPs often fall to shit from year to year. I’m sure most of the PPs moving out of the top 5 are at least staying in the top half of the league the next year.

    The Oil might be due for more PP chances this season too – they were 19th in opportunities in 11-12, so that could offset the % coming down a bit.

  31. Woodguy says:

    godot10,

    I’ve posted my disbelief in DET’s genius for a few years now. They had great players for a long time but they don’t seem to be replacing them.

    The Oilers have more to give up than other teams (outside of the big 4)

    The Oilers can afford to do a severely one sided deal cap wise (taking on way more than they are given up)

    They are in better position than most.

    I agree that its a seller’s market.

    CBJ has a lot of NHL caliber D and a lack of good forwards. I’d start there. Love Nikitin and like Tyutin.

    I’d also target BUF and offer Regier some cap relief. I like Sekera and Leopold.

  32. DSF says:

    Woodguy,

    Interesting reading.

    This stood out for me:

    “I think that Mike Babcock is right, possession is everything. Damn close to it at even strength, anyways. I also agree with his thinking that being a “puck possession(TM)” team has little to do with coaching style, and everything to do with how good your players are.”

    Rather than use the Rube Goldberg Method ™ of tracking possession, would it not be far simpler and more effective to track possession using a stop watch?

    Using shots in all their glorious variety may give you some notion of possession but it’s way too tangential as some good puck possession teams may not necessarily be among the leaders in shooting.

    Occam’s Razor.

  33. Dipstick says:

    Wolfie:
    It’s amazing how in this picture there is still a ton of room to put the puck in the net on a guy that’s 6’6″ tall.

    He’s slouching. We could improve that by turning the net on its end.

  34. Woodguy says:

    DSF,

    Rather than use the Rube Goldberg Method ™ of tracking possession, would it not be far simpler and more effective to track possession using a stop watch?

    Using shots in all their glorious variety may give you some notion of possession but it’s way too tangential as some good puck possession teams may not necessarily be among the leaders in shooting.

    Occam’s Razor.

    The NHL tracks shot data and the website posting this stuff have scripts to gather all that data.

    Lickety-split.

    If you’d like to hire a bunch of people to do the stop watch thing, go ahead. I think it would be interesting and very informative. Make sure they do every game for the last 5 years like the shot data people have so we can compare.

    Let me know when its ready.

    Occam’s Razor indeed.

  35. DSF says:

    jp:
    DSF,

    That’s really not so variable. SJS top 5 last 4 years, VCR the last 3. DET there 3 of 5 yrs. CHI and WSH there 2 years in a row. For sure there’s some movement, but this doesn’t show that top PPs often fall to shit from year to year. I’m sure most of the PPs moving out of the top 5 are at least staying in the top half of the league the next year.

    The Oil might be due for more PP chances this season too – they were 19th in opportunities in 11-12, so that could offset the % coming down a bit.

    It’s actually quite variable. Let’s look at a few teams who appear on that list.

    MON:

    24.1
    19.2
    21.8
    19.7
    14.3

    PIT:
    20.4
    17.2
    17.2
    15.8
    19.7

    DET:
    20.7
    25.5
    19.2
    22.3
    16.1

    VCR:
    17.1
    18.8
    20.9
    24.3
    19.8

    WSH:
    18.8
    25.2
    25.2
    17.5
    16.7

    SJS:
    21.1
    23.5
    21.0
    24.2
    18.7

    The only team among those that has any level of consistency is the Sharks and yet they’ve been no more successful than the others.

    You also need to consider why the Oilers were 19th in penalties drawn and perhaps one reason is that they are easy to play against.

  36. Ryan says:

    DSF: The OIlers’ GF also was buoyed by a top 5 PP ranking which, history tells us, cannot be relied upon.

    You, of course, can argue that the Oilers have some of the best PP personnel in the league so it’s likely the PP will continue to produce at a high level but, based on actual results, you shouldn’t count on it.

    Dude, you’re just awesome! :)

    The year prior, the Oilers PP was 27th accounting for 44 goals. The Oilers were 7 th in PP opportunities.

    Last year, the had the third ranked PP (by percentage) which was good for 54 goals (tied for 5th PPG total.). They were 19 th in power play opportunities.

    So while you’re correct in suggesting the odds favor a drop in their conversion rate, the factor you’ve ignored is PP opp or overall how much impact the net effect of fluctuations in both of these factors will likely have on their GF total.

  37. DSF says:

    Woodguy:
    DSF,

    Rather than use the Rube Goldberg Method ™ of tracking possession, would it not be far simpler and more effective to track possession using a stop watch?


    Using shots in all their glorious variety may give you some notion of possession but it’s way too tangential as some good puck possession teams may not necessarily be among the leaders in shooting.

    Occam’s Razor.

    The NHL tracks shot data and the website posting this stuff have scripts to gather all that data.

    Lickety-split.

    If you’d like to hire a bunch of people to do the stop watch thing, go ahead.I think it would be interesting and very informative.Make sure they do every game for the last 5 years like the shot data people have so we can compare.

    Let me know when its ready.

    Occam’s Razor indeed.

    Using a chain saw to crack a walnut might be easy but it’s not very elegant.

    If the stats guys are as devoted to their tasks as they appear to be they might want to consider using a yardstick to measure distance as opposed to a barometer.

    But that’s just me.

  38. DSF says:

    Ryan: Dude, you’re just awesome!

    The year prior, the Oilers PP was 27th accounting for 44 goals.The Oilers were 7 thin PP opportunities.

    Last year, the had the third ranked PP (by percentage) which was good for 54 goals (tied for 5th PPG total.). They were 19 th in power play opportunities.

    So while you’re correct in suggesting the odds favor a drop in their conversion rate, the factor you’ve ignored is PP opp or overall how much impactthe net effect of fluctuations in both of these factors will likely have on their GF total.

    What I’ve been saying, and what your post confirms, is that it’s pretty random.

    Counting on it going forward is not a good bet.

  39. Lowetide says:

    Oilers scored 7 more goals than average a year ago on the PP. If they fall back to average or below, it could have an impact. However, they were also 12 goals below average 5×5 and have several forwards with up arrows.

    The Oilers might miss the playoffs by a mile–goal differential improvement didn’t help them this season–but it looks to me as though this team is going to improve on last season’s GF-GA (207-220) and close that gap via GF from the forwards.

    That is what RE is showing me.

  40. Ryan says:

    Woodguy:
    I was looking at DD the other day and came to a similar conclusion to you..915-9.17 ish.

    The “Tambellini is doing his job if the Oilers are horrible” days are over.

    He needs to make this team better.

    I am not certain he can do it.

    I hope he can.

    Hey woodguy!!!

    One thing that we’re all seeing is that we’re in the middle of an incredibly bullish market for capable NHL d.

    Credible sources are suggesting that Jay Bo is a trade target for the Wings. A few years ago, he had what many thought to be an immovable contract.

    It’s looking more and more like the Oilers won’t get the NHL d they need in trade without dealing a fab four player.

  41. Ryan says:

    Lowetide:
    Oilers scored 7 more goals than average a year ago on the PP. If they fall back to average or below, it could have an impact. However, they were also 12 goals below average 5×5 and have several forwards with up arrows.

    The Oilers might miss the playoffs by a mile–goal differential improvement didn’t help them this season–but it looks to me as though this team is going to improve on last season’s GF-GA (207-220) and close that gap via GF from the forwards.

    That is what RE is showing me.

    No question either way that the Oilers haven’t nearly done enough yet to improve the D.

    Ryan Whitney bouncing back would help significantly. Seeing it happen would be incredibly fortunate.

    Expecting it to happen would be Tyler Dellow’s famous line: “another loser move by a loser…”

  42. jp says:

    DSF: It’s actually quite variable. Let’s look at a few teams who appear on that list.

    MON:

    24.1
    19.2
    21.8
    19.7
    14.3

    PIT:
    20.4
    17.2
    17.2
    15.8
    19.7

    DET:
    20.7
    25.5
    19.2
    22.3
    16.1

    VCR:
    17.1
    18.8
    20.9
    24.3
    19.8

    WSH:
    18.8
    25.2
    25.2
    17.5
    16.7

    SJS:
    21.1
    23.5
    21.0
    24.2
    18.7

    The only team among those that has any level of consistency is the Sharks and yet they’ve been no more successful than the others.

    You also need to consider why the Oilers were 19th in penalties drawn and perhaps one reason is that they are easy to play against.

    I dunno, I’m still seeing a lot of consistency… Last years average PP% was around 17.0%, how many below average PP seasons have you listed among these 25 seasons? 4, and only 2 below 16%. Is that not generally consistently good PP production?

    Montreal and Detroit – 4 very good PP seasons each, followed by a drop off. Vancover – an average season then 4 good ones. SJS – a good season then 4 great ones. For sure there’s some variability, but my point was that the good teams tend to stay good – I think that’s what these numbers show for the most part.

    I agree that the Oilers may well see a regression in the PP% next year, but I think there’s a very good chance that it will still be above average. And as I said (and Ryan also mentioned), their PP chances will quite likely increase to offset any conversion rate dip. It’s possible as you suggest that # PP opportunities could be low because they’re “easy to play against”, but watching the games I (and many others) saw a lot of non-calls on the kids that more veteran players around the league might have gotten. That, combined with them being #7 in PP chances in 10-11 suggests to me that the team will most likely get a lot more opportunities in 12-13.

  43. David S says:

    For all you guys talking about sport psychology as being an important factor in athletic performance, well you’re pretty much on the button. The Oilers now have an in-house sports psychologist: http://www.drkimberleyamirault.com/index.php/drkimberley/bio/

    Doesn’t hurt she’s an absolute rocket either.

  44. Woodguy says:

    DSF: Using a chain saw to crack a walnut might be easy but it’s not very elegant.

    If the stats guys are as devoted to their tasks as they appear to be they might want to consider using a yardstick to measure distance as opposed to a barometer.

    But that’s just me.

    You keeping saying stuff like that, but really don’t add anything to it.

    The chainsaw walnut analogy is also hilariously blind after you read what these guys are doing and the correlations involved.

    Keep smiling though.

  45. Woodguy says:

    Ryan: Hey woodguy!!!

    One thing that we’re all seeing is that we’re in the middle of an incredibly bullish market for capable NHL d.

    Credible sources are suggesting that Jay Bo is a trade target for the Wings.A few years ago, he had what many thought to be an immovable contract.

    It’s looking more and more like the Oilers won’t get the NHL d they need in trade without dealing a fab four player.

    They don’t need a Jbo this year. Would be nice, but not required.

    A D who has a history of pushing the puck in the right direction against top 4 comp would do.

    A Nikitin, Sekera, Tyutin (contract is too long though), Leopold type would do for this year.

    None of those cost a fab 4.

  46. Woodguy says:

    OIler 5v5 Dmen Shots Against/60 11/12 (min 20 games played)

    COLTENTEUBERT 32.3
    CAMERONBARKER 31.3
    NICKSCHULTZ 30.1
    THEOPECKHAM 30
    RYANWHITNEY 29.4
    ANDYSUTTON 27.6
    COREYPOTTER 27.2
    JEFFPETRY 26.8
    LADISLAVSMID 25.4

    Re-organized from toughest minutes played to easiest:

    LADISLAVSMID 25.4
    JEFFPETRY 26.8
    COREYPOTTER 27.2
    NICKSCHULTZ 30.1
    CAMERONBARKER 31.3
    ANDYSUTTON 27.6
    THEOPECKHAM 30
    RYANWHITNEY 29.4
    COLTENTEUBERT 32.3

    Its almost perfectly inverted.

    In terms of this metric, the toughest minutes are not the problem.

    A good defensive LH Dman that pushes others down the depth chart and acts as Whitney insurance, even for 1 year does this team a world of good.

  47. Woodguy says:

    Oilers Dmen Shots Against per 60 4v5 2011/12 (min 1min/60 4v5 time to qualify)

    THEOPECKHAM 48.2
    JEFFPETRY 46.1
    LADISLAVSMID 44
    NICKSCHULTZ 40.6
    ANDYSUTTON 36.8

    Smid and Petry look worse here than 5v5.

    That LH Dman to push players down the depth chart would look pretty good here too.

    Sutton looks pretty good here (ranked 19th in NHL for this metric)

  48. Lowetide says:

    Huh. That’s an interesting item, WG. Potter number a real surprise.

  49. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Huh. That’s an interesting item, WG. Potter number a real surprise.

    I figured if you are looking at DD, then Shots Against is a natural to try to figure out GA.

    Boy they need another Dman.

  50. TheOtherJohn says:

    WG

    Very interesting info re 5×5 shots/60 minute. Potter looks better than I expected and Tuebert much worse than I thought.

  51. Lowetide says:

    They must believe Whitney is going to be Whitney.

  52. jp says:

    Woodguy:
    OIler 5v5 Dmen Shots Against/60 11/12 (min 20 games played)

    COLTENTEUBERT32.3
    CAMERONBARKER31.3
    NICKSCHULTZ30.1
    THEOPECKHAM30
    RYANWHITNEY29.4
    ANDYSUTTON27.6
    COREYPOTTER27.2
    JEFFPETRY26.8
    LADISLAVSMID25.4

    Re-organized from toughest minutes played to easiest:

    LADISLAVSMID25.4
    JEFFPETRY26.8
    COREYPOTTER27.2
    NICKSCHULTZ30.1
    CAMERONBARKER31.3
    ANDYSUTTON27.6
    THEOPECKHAM30
    RYANWHITNEY29.4
    COLTENTEUBERT32.3

    Its almost perfectly inverted.

    In terms of this metric, the toughest minutes are not the problem.

    A good defensive LH Dman that pushes others down the depth chart and acts as Whitney insurance, even for 1 year does this team a world of good.

    That is quite interesting – you’re right that the tough minute guys are doing fine apparently…

    Any idea though why the numbers from Behind the Net (shown above) are different from those at Stats.HockeyAnalysis?
    You’re #s are 5v5 SA On/60 from BTN. I’ve added a 2nd column for 5v5 SA20 from the latter site (pro-rated to 60 min):

    COLTENTEUBERT 32.3 35.1
    CAMERONBARKER 31.3 33.8
    NICKSCHULTZ 30.1 31.5
    THEOPECKHAM 30 32.2
    RYANWHITNEY 29.4 32.3
    ANDYSUTTON 27.6 29.5
    COREYPOTTER 27.2 30.2
    JEFFPETRY 26.8 29.5
    LADISLAVSMID 25.4 27.6

    Shouldn’t the numbers be the same? Are the sites using different raw data? Does SA20 not mean what I think it means?

    Not a lot of difference in the overall results except for Schultz, who is relatively better by the 2nd site than the 1st (and both appear to be using full season #s). Sutton and Potter look surprisingly good, and Teubert and Barker terrible by both.

  53. Woodguy says:

    jp,

    Really good question about the different SA data at the sites.

    Might be a good question for the proprietors of those sites.

  54. Lowetide says:

    Thank Christ there’s not a third number Teubert gets worse as it rolls along. :-)

  55. jp says:

    Lowetide,

    Indeed. Barker’s numbers knocked him out of the league. Teubert is going to have to do a lot better than that going forward or he won’t be around long.

    Woodguy,
    Pretty sure I’ll never email the proprietors, as I don’t understand 2/3 of the numbers on their sites :)

  56. melancholyculkin says:

    Woodguy,

    Most likely a math error by someone, although some of the discrepancies seem fairly large for such a straightforward operation.

    It could be that in the code someone put a // when there should have been a /.

    Although considering that the tough part in generating this data is getting it off the NHL gamesheets, not dividing by 60 I doubt that’s the issue.

  57. Woodguy says:

    melancholyculkin:
    Woodguy,

    Most likely a math error by someone, although some of the discrepancies seem fairly large for such a straightforward operation.

    It could be that in the code someone put a // when there should have been a /.

    Although considering that the tough part in generating this data is getting it off the NHL gamesheets, not dividing by 60 I doubt that’s the issue.

    Seeing as one site is uniformly higher than the other, I’d say its a TOI issue, but that’s just a guess.

  58. DSF says:

    Woodguy: You keeping saying stuff like that, but really don’t add anything to it.

    The chainsaw walnut analogy is also hilariously blind after you read what these guys are doing and the correlations involved.

    Keep smiling though.

    I have read what they’re doing in great depth but they’re trying to measure something with the wrong yardstick.

    Are you convinced that shots=possession=success?

    A common sense approach would seem to be in order.

    For example, here are the shot differential numbers from last season ranked first to worst with overall finish in the standings in brackets.

    1. Pittsburgh +6.5 (4th)

    2. Detroit +5.2 (9th)

    3. San Jose +5.2 (12th)

    4. Philly +4.2 (6th)

    5. STL +3.9 (3rd)

    6. Los Angeles +3.2 (13th)

    7. Chicago +2.9 (10th)

    8. Boston +2.7 (7th)

    9. Colorado +1.9 (20th)

    10. NYR +0.7 (2nd)

    11. New Jersey +0.7 (8th)

    12. Vancouver +0.7 (1st)

    13. Winnipeg 0.0 (22nd)

    14. Ottawa -0.6 (16th)

    15. New York Islanders -0.7 (27th)

    16. Florida -0.8 (14th)

    17. Columbus -1.0 (30th)

    18. Anaheim -1.0 (26th)

    19. Montreal -1.2 (28th)

    20. Carolina – 1.9 (23rd)

    21. Phoenix -2.0 (11th)

    22. Buffalo -2.2 (19th)

    23. Washington -2.2 (15th)

    24. Toronto -2.5 (25th)

    25. Dallas -2.6 (18th)

    26. Tampa Bay -3.2 (21st)

    27. Nashville -3.2 (5th)

    28. Calgary -3.3 (17th)

    29. Edmonton -4.0 (29th)

    30. Minnesota -4.9 (24th)

    Please note that the team that won the President’s Trophy was about average in shot differential.

    Also, please explain why 30th place Columbus managed to be 17th in shot differential and how Nashville managed to finish 5th overall with the 27th best shot differential.

    Perhaps there are factors at work that are not captured by shot differential and until the guys spending their lives working on the unified theory are able to capture such things as shot quality, goaltending quality etc. they’re just throwing shit at the wall.

  59. Lowetide says:

    DSF: Well, Columbus had terrible goaltending, Nashville is a low event offensive team. And Vancouver? Well, they were no doubt playing with the lead on a regular basis, right? SD is a very valuable indicator imo, especially when viewed during periods of the game when things are tight.

  60. DSF says:

    Lowetide:
    DSF: Well, Columbus had terrible goaltending, Nashville is a low event offensive team. And Vancouver? Well, they were no doubt playing with the lead on a regular basis, right? SD is a very valuable indicator imo, especially when viewed during periods of the game when things are tight.

    So, you’ve identified three variables that are not captured by the shots data and, of course there are many others like shot quality, goaltending quality, score effects, team personnel, coaching strategy and a partridge in a pear tree.

    The correlation between shot differential and winning is very, very sketchy.

    I would agree with Holland that possession is a very important metric because the other team can’t score when you have the puck and you can…but shots are a very poor substitute for ACTUAL possession data.

    It’s like measuring possession in football by how many passes a quarterback attempted with no reference to completions, touchdowns or final score.

    I’m sure you would agree that pass attempts would be a very poor measure of possession in football but that’s what the Corsi guys are attempting to foist upon the hockey world.

    It’s relatively simple to measure possession…someone should measure it.

  61. Lowetide says:

    DSF: No one said getting the answers was going to be easy. But if we all use our head for more than a hat rack we’ll get somewhere! Hell, the progression over the last decade has been phenomenal. Eric T’s stuff at NHL numbers is killer, as a for instance.

  62. Woodguy says:

    DSF: The correlation between shot differential and winning is very, very sketchy.

    No, its not, and the links I’ve provided show the correlations.

    Like LT stated, the other variables come into play, and you have to balance all of it, but the root is puck possession.

    When you show standings and shot differentials, its like showing that you went all in with AA vs. 22 82 times and it didn’t come out to a perfect 86% and 14%.

    Variance happens.

    Hot goaltending happens.

    Hot shooting percentage happens.

    When trying to estimate which teams are better, there is not a better metric currently available and it has very good correlations.

    More work is being done in zone starts, zone entries, neutral zone starts, and all of it will add to it.

    To dismiss it all is beneath the intellect that you have shown.

  63. DSF says:

    Lowetide:
    DSF: No one said getting the answers was going to be easy. But if we all use our head for more than a hat rack we’ll get somewhere! Hell, the progression over the last decade has been phenomenal. Eric T’s stuff at NHL numbers is killer, as a for instance.

    Heading off in the wrong direction often leads you to the wrong destination.

    I get measuring possession…it’s very important…so measure it rather than screwing yourself into the ground trying to measure it tangentially.

    Woodguy said earlier the shot data is readily available ergo it’s useful but, once again,I’ll say the team with the most pass attempts is not always the best team.

    Some teams in football, like some teams in hockey, control possession by running it up the gut (Nashville), some teams don’t shoot a lot despite having tremendous possession numbers (Vancouver) and some teams throw a lot of shots on net and still aren’t successful because their personnel is deficient.

    When you factor in the variance from season to season, the frequency of coaching and system changes and personnel changes, the year or year data is pretty much noise.

    For example, the Kings had a mid year coaching change, added Jeff Carter and went on a (for them) shooting and scoring spree.

    The Kings were 11th in SF/G last season but I’d wager they will be much higher next season and the Corsi Guys will only capture that AFTER it happens and will not reference WHY it occurred.

    The predictive value of those stats approaches nil unless the real “context” is addressed.

  64. Bar_Qu says:

    Woodguy,

    Or possibly, having gotten tired of trying to get under people’s skin with “Horcoff sucks” meme, DSF is now using the Corsi to get a response. Note the unwillingness to even attempt a possession measurement using games available in NHL archives (I’m sure simply watching a couple of VCR-EDM games from the season before last would do).

    OTOH, the football analogy is spurious too. Hockey relies on significantly more shots to achieve a score than football does. Teams routinely move the puck up ice and take several shots to achieve a goal (not counting blocked or missed shots either). Sometimes you run into a Freddy Brathwaite stopping 40 shots and you lose to the team who takes 20, but not as often. Teams which spend more time shooting at the other net are routinely referred to as the better team, both by math-stat crowd and seen-him-good crowd (PJ Stock refers to it, for crying out loud).

    I’m calling your bluff DSF. Prove you actually believe in what you’re trying to sell. Spend an evening with your two stopwatches and a game. Otherwise all you are doing is putting up white noise.

  65. Lowetide says:

    DSF: I suggest you use bowling in your next post. Must be a way to work that in. :-)

  66. DSF says:

    Woodguy: No, its not, and the links I’ve provided show the correlations.

    Like LT stated, the other variables come into play, and you have to balance all of it, but the root is puck possession.

    When you show standings and shot differentials, its like showing that you went all in with AA vs. 22 82 times and it didn’t come out to a perfect 86% and 14%.

    Variance happens.

    Hot goaltending happens.

    Hot shooting percentage happens.

    When trying to estimate which teams are better, there is not a better metric currently available and it has very good correlations.

    More work is being done in zone starts, zone entries, neutral zone starts, and all of it will add to it.

    To dismiss it all is beneath the intellect that you have shown.

    No. No they don’t.

    They try and equate possession with shots which is a fatally flawed concept.

    Adding more noise to a fatally flawed concept won’t recuse it.

    When you try to estimate which teams are better, the results are readily available in W-L-OTL.

    If you want to discover WHY they are better then using shot differential as the basis of your argument is severely wanting.

    Your ad hominen remarks aside, I am not “dismissing it all” as you suggest but I’m also not swallowing it whole as you appear to be doing.

    The number of variables you are ignoring is truly breathtaking and we could likely spend a week debating which ones have a real impact on winning.

    And, spouting “variance happens” when addressing the obvious results from a sample size of 82 games makes me chuckle as long as you continue to ignore the obvious.

    Look again at the standings I posted.

    They’re all over the map.

    If you were using your shot differential metric in a poker game you would lose your shirt.

  67. DSF says:

    Bar_Qu:
    Woodguy,

    Or possibly, having gotten tired of trying to get under people’s skin with “Horcoff sucks” meme, DSF is now using the Corsi to get a response.Note the unwillingness to even attempt a possession measurement using games available in NHL archives (I’m sure simply watching a couple of VCR-EDM games from the season before last would do).

    OTOH, the football analogy is spurious too. Hockey relies on significantly more shots to achieve a score than football does. Teams routinely move the puck up ice and take several shots to achieve a goal (not counting blocked or missed shots either). Sometimes you run into a Freddy Brathwaite stopping 40 shots and you lose to the team who takes 20, but not as often. Teams which spend more time shooting at the other net are routinely referred to as the better team, both by math-stat crowd and seen-him-good crowd (PJ Stock refers to it, for crying out loud).

    I’m calling your bluff DSF. Prove you actually believe in what you’re trying to sell. Spend an evening with your two stopwatches and a game. Otherwise all you are doing is putting up white noise.

    Actually, I was going to challenge Woodguy to a stopwatch game next season when we will compare time of possession to shot differential in 10 slect games.

    Should be interesting.

    P.S. Horcoff does suck.

    Who knew? :)

  68. DSF says:

    Lowetide:
    DSF: I suggest you use bowling in your next post. Must be a way to work that in.

    As soon as they institute goaltenders in bowling, we may have a winner :)

  69. FastOil says:

    DSF,

    Reading through here makes me think:

    “All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.”

    Arthur Schopenhauer, German philosopher (1788 – 1860)

  70. bookje says:

    WG and Lowetide – why do dance for DSF? You know it’s all that he wants. Is it pity or something?

  71. Traktor says:

    Clicked on thread hoping for some DSF critical thinking.

    Left satisfied.

  72. Woodguy says:

    DSF,

    The Kings were 11th in SF/G last season but I’d wager they will be much higher next season and the Corsi Guys will only capture that AFTER it happens and will not reference WHY it occurred.

    Still yet another wager you’d lose.

    http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/8/9/los-angeles-kings-2012-2013-the-future-remains-bright

    Mathy blogs were all over Carter (a corsi monster) – Jack Johnson (a corsi nightmare) would produce excellent results.

    Here’s some stuff produced right after the trade.

    http://drivingplay.blogspot.ca/2012/04/how-much-do-kings-miss-jack-johnson.html

    http://www.fearthefin.com/2012/2/24/2822018/dumping-johnson-just-as-important-as-adding-carter-for-kings

    Wow, look, the math guys made a prediction based on corsi and were right.

    Who knew?

  73. DSF says:

    FastOil:
    DSF,

    Reading through here makes me think:

    “All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.”

    Arthur Schopenhauer, German philosopher (1788 – 1860)

    The German hockey program was very rudimentary at that time but it does remind me that another Germanic contemporary of Schopenhauer once opined, “sometimes a cigar is just a cigar”.

    Of course his “truth” after passing through the three stages you have referenced, has widely been discredited as pseudo scientific, sexist bunk.

    Fancy that.

  74. Woodguy says:

    DSF,

    No. No they don’t.

    They try and equate possession with shots which is a fatally flawed concept.

    Adding more noise to a fatally flawed concept won’t recuse it.

    You keep saying this and do not provide any proof.

    I provide links to some very good work and a paper presented at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.

    Pretty comfortable with my evidence.

  75. Woodguy says:

    Traktor:
    Clicked on thread hoping for some DSF critical thinking.

    Left satisfied.

    Speaking of critical thinking, how’s your Homeopathy studies going?

  76. Woodguy says:

    bookje:
    WG and Lowetide – why do dance for DSF?You know it’s all that he wants.Is it pity or something?

    Boredom mostly.

    Need a trade to talk about.

  77. DSF says:

    Woodguy:
    DSF,

    The Kings were 11th in SF/G last season but I’d wager they will be much higher next season and the Corsi Guys will only capture that AFTER it happens and will not reference WHY it occurred.

    Still yet another wager you’d lose.

    http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/8/9/los-angeles-kings-2012-2013-the-future-remains-bright

    Mathy blogs were all over Carter (a corsi monster) – Jack Johnson (a corsi nightmare) would produce excellent results.

    Here’s some stuff produced right after the trade.

    http://drivingplay.blogspot.ca/2012/04/how-much-do-kings-miss-jack-johnson.html

    http://www.fearthefin.com/2012/2/24/2822018/dumping-johnson-just-as-important-as-adding-carter-for-kings

    Wow, look, the math guys made a prediction based on corsi and were right.

    Who knew?

    Every one of those articles misses the boat by a wide margin in that they focus on Johnson’s Corsi as opposed to what the addition of Carter meant to the Kings first line and, thusly, their offensive production since opponents were forced to hard match the Kings second line.

    Incompelte and misleading analysis as usual.

    BTW, Jack Johnson played very well for Columbus in his short stint there.

  78. DSF says:

    Woodguy: Speaking of critical thinking, how’s your Homeopathy studies going?

    Speaking of critical thinking…I’ve recently had an experience that should shed some light on the issue.

    About 10 years ago, I developed a seasonal affliction on the skin of my left arm.

    Over the years, I visited 7 GP’s and 3 dermatologists who were unable to diagnose the problem and all prescribed cortizone cream which was totally ineffective.

    About 9 months ago, in desperation as the condition worsened, my wife talked me into visiting a naturopath.

    The naturopath thought there were three potential issues and provided me with three different treatments to apply over the period of a week.

    Lo and behold, one of them actually worked immediately and the condition has all but disappeared after a decade of itching, scratching. bleeding and swearing.

    Now, I realize this success was likely due to hot goaltending or an unsustainable shooting percentage but. despite being a committed skeptic, I can’t argue with the results.

    A little out of the box thinking would appear to go a long way.

  79. DSF says:

    Woodguy: Boredom mostly.

    Need a trade to talk about.

    How about Sam Gagner for Jack Johnson?

    Would you do it?

  80. DSF says:

    Woodguy:
    DSF,

    No. No they don’t.


    They try and equate possession with shots which is a fatally flawed concept.

    Adding more noise to a fatally flawed concept won’t recuse it.

    You keep saying this and do not provide any proof.

    I provide links to some very good work and a paper presented at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.

    Pretty comfortable with my evidence.

    Sorry WG, I read the paper..it’s based on a flawed concept IMO.

  81. Woodguy says:

    DSF: Every one of those articles misses the boat by a wide margin in that they focus on Johnson’s Corsi as opposed to what the addition of Carter meant to the Kings first line and, thusly, their offensive production since opponents were forced to hard match the Kings second line.

    Incompelte and misleading analysis as usual.

    BTW, Jack Johnson played very well for Columbus in his short stint there.

    Either you didn’t read the first link which specifically singled out Carter’s contrubutions to the team, ignored it, or can’t read.

    I’ll go with ignored it.

  82. Woodguy says:

    DSF,

    If you were using your shot differential metric in a poker game you would lose your shirt.

    Actually I used to be a semi-pro poker player.

    You remind me of the players (broke ones usually) who railed against using math in poker and relied on “feel”

  83. Woodguy says:

    DSF: How about Sam Gagner for Jack Johnson?

    Would you do it?

    Nope.

    Big cap hit, long contract, history of being a poor option at his position.

    He played better in CBJ, but I’d need more evidence.

    CBJ was fleeced on that trade.

  84. FastOil says:

    DSF,

    Well that might be, but it fits my “saw it good” with reactions to ideas sometimes, and I do have trouble seeing sexism in Schopenhauer’s thought at face value. Buzz words like “pseudo scientific, sexist bunk” are pretty sweeping and an easy out when there is nothing valid to say as far as I’m concerned.

    Kudos in your efforts to respond always and all of the work you do finding the data you present. If you think you are on to something, you have to find evidence that can stand up to the level of analysis that the ideas brought forward by Ferrari and Hawerchuk etc. have weathered and been verified by, in other words by people who are truly knowledgeable about statistics.

    The math when verified properly takes the “pseudo scientific” or subjectivity out of the arguments. I have not seen one valid or well supported counter argument to Corsi or SD in several years now of reading where they are referenced. That is saying a lot about their truth because there have been many, many attempts, in your efforts alone.

  85. Woodguy says:

    DSF: Speaking of critical thinking…I’ve recently had an experience that should shed some light on the issue.

    About 10 years ago, I developed a seasonal affliction on the skin of my left arm.

    Over the years, I visited 7 GP’s and 3 dermatologists who were unable to diagnose the problem and all prescribed cortizone cream which was totally ineffective.

    About 9 months ago, in desperation as the condition worsened, my wife talked me into visiting a naturopath.

    The naturopath thought there were three potential issues and provided me with three different treatments to apply over the period of a week.

    Lo and behold, one of them actually worked immediately and the condition has all but disappeared after a decade of itching, scratching. bleeding and swearing.

    Now, I realize this success was likely due to hot goaltending or an unsustainable shooting percentage but. despite being a committed skeptic, I can’t argue with the results.

    A little out of the box thinking would appear to go a long way.

    My great grandfather smoked his whole life and died in a car accident at 95.

    Apparently smoking isn’t bad for you.

    Also,

    I know there is more things on heaven and earth than are dreamed of in my philosophy, and I try to keep an open mind.

    Traktor mentioned critical thinking soon after saying he was studying alternative medicines.

    It was too rich to ignore.

  86. stevezie says:

    I don’t want to start talking about something else, been since we’re already veering dangerously close to ad hominen arguments I will say there’s a world of difference between a naturopath and a homeopath, even though some people use the words interchangeably. Naturopaths certainly have their flaws can contribute something useful to the world.

  87. "Steve Smith" says:

    DSF: Adding more noise to a fatally flawed concept won’t recuse it.

    That thing I always say. In this case, about “recuse”.

    Also, this.

  88. vishcosity says:

    David S:
    For all you guys talking about sport psychology as being an important factor in athletic performance, well you’re pretty much on the button. The Oilers now have an in-house sports psychologist: http://www.drkimberleyamirault.com/index.php/drkimberley/bio/

    Doesn’t hurt she’s an absolute rocket either.

    What a day. Getting back to the party late. House sitting in San Diego with a private pool and kids and girls and bikinis and dogs and alcohol. Somehow I am allegedly the parent in all this.

    So the Oil have hired a MSM motivational speaker. Bet she will tell the kids to invest their money in the 401K. I am so sick of these bankers. Even if as Godot? says, Magnus has buried a couple shots in the minors lately, I still say that he has miles to grow in the tenacity department. Is the PhD from the corporate academy really going to be the one to help him along? Is the schill going to get him to where he can go for sure? Maybe they could give him a couple choices and find the one who works best for him.

    Tracktor is off studying alternative medicine. Alternative to what? Alternative to the same crap that the Oil’s new head gun is about to spout? Tacktor, find the Web That Has No Weaver, then read Paul Pitchford’s Healing with Whole Foods, and if you do make it through the second (the first is a couple days) if you make it through Pitchford I will bet you will seek no further education on the subject and will also realize that the alternative to medicine is actually what Katz is selling. And maybe my hoping for something other than an MSM banker for the team brain shrink is really what is ridiculous in all this.

    DSF 2.0. Wow man. I love what has become of your posts over the last few weeks. While the desire in me for math to reflect people may ride higher than most, I love the way you’re bringing in numbers to reflect your positions that the math isn’t really working. And while I may be the first to say that statistics can work when the critical variables are included, I may be the last to say that current tracking of games will produce viable math.

    After seeing the obvious lack of correlation between shot differential and regular season record, I too agree that much of what has been postured as of late is still infantile in its generation. Until the NHL presents a cohesive answer to determining shot quality, and has the decency to run a stop watch for time of possession, until there is some nomenclature in that department, there aren’t going to be functional statistics that accurately reflect the difference between a lazy shot from the back foot and a deke inside the paint. And until that difference is accounted for, and the statistics are probably going to fail. Except the CHL – NHLe thing. That is kinda weird.

    The math isn’t working. Yet. With DSF on this I guess I clearly agree. However, with Woodguy I recognize there is a possibility in all this. I do see a chance to have sabermetrics applied to hockey, and while right now isn’t maybe the time where it really has true value, I do think the NHL has to create some committee ad hoc and explore the subject, they need to refine what data they’re collecting, they need to take the next step in all this math hockey stuff. They need to figure out how to track shot quality, they need to actually track time of possession. And until they do, we’re tilting. With all the best intentions. Like trying to use a fourier transform on a UV VIS to find qualitative results, really it is as good as a hip shot with a 22.

    Maybe Delooper’s new math will solve the problem, really I think its all in the hands of the league to produce data that Vic can digest and Woodguy can read and translate.

    New math categories for the league to consider may include:
    shot quality
    time of pocession, I gues
    turnover location
    goalie position relative to shot location
    CHL TOI and QComp
    shot velocity? should be easy to measure, not sure if it has any value.
    There are surely more, just not after today, for me.

  89. leadfarmer says:

    vishcosity,

    That is why a few days ago I suggested that a shot should have a level of difficulty attached to it ranging from 0.2 shot from outside the blue line to 3.0, a two man breakaway. That way you can keep track of the quality of chances a team creates and gives up, and what kind of shots a goalie faces and goals he lets in.

  90. Woodguy says:

    vishcosity,

    After seeing the obvious lack of correlation between shot differential and regular season record,

    Where did you see that?

  91. Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons says:

    Actually, DSF’s shot differential to final position list shows a statistically significant correlation. I did a quick analysis, which you can see at the link below.

    This correlation has an r-square of .326, basically, it explains 32.6% of the variance (1.0 would explain all variance). As far as measures go, that’s not too bad.

    http://prntscr.com/dps3r

  92. DSF says:

    Woodguy: Nope.

    Big cap hit, long contract, history of being a poor option at his position.

    He played better in CBJ, but I’d need more evidence.

    CBJ was fleeced on that trade.

    The contract is long but a cap hit of $4.3M is actually pretty low for a top 4 defenseman who produces like Johnson does on the PP.

    Considering Johnson is just 25, slightly older than Jeff Petry, he likely hasn’t peaked yet.

    I think Johnson was a square peg in a round hole in LA’s ultra defensive system and may well thrive in a new, defined role in Columbus.

    A small sample size but pro rating his 21 game production on a really shitty team gives you:

    82GP 16G 39A 55P +20

    That would have been good for second in league defenseman scoring last season.

    That he was also named captain of the USA WC team also speaks volumes about the young man.

  93. vishcosity says:

    Woodguy,

    edit: You’re absolutely right, there is a correlation, just in my opinion, its a bit thin. Or, if in a lab I ended up with that coefficient, my first though would probably be that I did something wrong.

    LeadFarmer – I remember you proposing that scale, and while its not within my jurisdiction to choose one scale or another, I would think that is the best one offered so far.

    As it turns out, today kids have jobs. Its just all pretty early for this kind of thing.

  94. Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons says:

    vishcosity,

    If you’re in a lab, a controlled environment, then a higher r-square may be expected (all depends on what you’re looking at). Generally speaking, though, having an r-square above .3 in a real world setting, where there are factors that cannot be controlled, is meaningful.

    Admittedly, interpreting these values can be subjective, especially when we don’t have a good comparable relationship.

    Obviously not the be-all end-all of metrics, but I would argue that it does have value.

  95. Bruce McCurdy says:

    jp: COLTENTEUBERT 32.3 35.1
    CAMERONBARKER 31.3 33.8
    NICKSCHULTZ 30.1 31.5
    THEOPECKHAM 30 32.2
    RYANWHITNEY 29.4 32.3
    ANDYSUTTON 27.6 29.5
    COREYPOTTER 27.2 30.2
    JEFFPETRY 26.8 29.5
    LADISLAVSMID 25.4 27.6

    The issue here is that SA/60 at BehindtheNet means “Saved Shots Against per 60″. To get “Shots Against” you must add SA/60 + GA/60. I keep wishing Gabe would change his category name and use SvA/60 or something, because it’s natural to make the erroneous conclusion that “S” means “Shots”. It doesn’t! So if you’re using that number for your raw shots totals, you’re gonna be light by ~10%.

    Including the GA/60 from BtN (shown in brackets) resolves most of the difference between the two cited figures. Doesn’t reconcile perfectly, but it’s close.

    CAMERONBARKER 31.3 33.8 (2.39)
    NICKSCHULTZ 30.1 31.5 (1.90)
    THEOPECKHAM 30 32.2 (2.57)
    RYANWHITNEY 29.4 32.3 (2.61)
    ANDYSUTTON 27.6 29.5 (1.97)
    COREYPOTTER 27.2 30.2 (3.02)
    JEFFPETRY 26.8 29.5 (2.63)
    LADISLAVSMID 25.4 27.6 (2.32)

    I have noticed this before, that to reconcile numbers like Corsi at BtN you need to do (GF + SF + MF + BA) – (GA + SA + MA – BF), with blocks inverted because they are credited to the defensive team.

  96. Lowetide says:

    Thanks, Bruce!

  97. Bruce McCurdy says:

    I have noticed this before, that to reconcile numbers like Corsi at BtN you need to do (GF + SF + MF + BA) – (GA + SA + MA – BF), with blocks inverted because they are credited to the defensive team.

    Oops, screwed that last one up a tiny bit & ran out of time to edit. Corsi is calculated as (GF + SF + MF + BA) – (GA + SA + MA + BF), all plus signs within the brackets and a minus sign in between the two sets.

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