RE 12-13: JEFF PETRY

The emergence of Jeff Petry as a legit NHL defenseman was a watershed moment. The Oilers–going back a long way–aren’t especially good at drafting complete defensemen.

RE 12-13: 72, 4-25-29

  1. How good is he? The Vollman Sledgehammer has him in the Reservoir Dogs quadrant and he has a blue boy bubble, and that’s top drawer.
  2. Will he play with Smid? That duo made beautiful music together later in the 11-12 season, suspect coach Krueger will rely on them. Ryan Whitney’s health is a factor, but I think the answer is yes.
  3. Do you like him? Yes, very much. Mobile, smart, can defend, close gaps and is physical enough to manage the heavy moments. A nice, nice player. He played a lot at evens and on the PK and was productive when he got PP minutes. He led the team in even toi/game (after Gilbert was traded).
  4. Was he Prendergast’s best pick? No, I’d rate Hemsky higher, and guys like Gagner, Stoll and Brodziak should be in the conversation. I think he’ll be up there though, and suspect he’ll have a better career than the top D in the KP regime (Matt Greene). Still a long way to go.
  5. You didn’t think he’d do this. Oh God no. It’s always a good bet to go ‘against’ a #45 overall selection turning into Jeff Petry. Most of the time that’s going to be a winning ticket.
  6. KP did better in the 2nd round than the first. Hmmm. Best 1st rd picks were Ales Hemsky, Sam Gagner, Devan Dubnyk and Andrew Cogliano. 2nd round picks were Jarret Stoll, Matt Greene and Jeff Petry. I’d give the edge to round 1, but then again that probably means round 2 is giving better value. Okay, point made.
  7. Do the Oilers have trouble drafting NHL capable defensemen? They have in the past had a tough time, although the most recent drafts suggest that will change. In the 10 seasons prior to Petry’s draft year (2006), the best Dmen drafted were Alex Henry (1998), Alexei Semenov (1999), Matt Greene (2002). How many of those guys are having or have had careers that Jeff Petry can’t hope to exceed? None.
  8. Petry has a wide range of skills. You bet. Tom Awad has written a lot about defenseman and the two-way types are the ones to capture.
  9. What’s your definition of a 2-way D? Not my definition, but the general idea is that the guy can help in all three areas of the game. Petry played 18 minutes at evens–top amongst the current group–2:29 SH and a buck 16 on the PP. Petry’s PP performance (3.25/60) ranked third among Oilers D in terms of efficiency and I think he might get a little more time on the powerplay this season.
  10. He isn’t physical enough. The Oilers have plenty of tough defenders and Petry does in fact play an effective game in this area. His positioning is improving, and he doesn’t take a lot of penalties but I’d describe him as being a defenseman who used his size well.
  11. What’s the best thing about him on the ice? He is a fine passer and that’s going to mean a lot of opportunities in the offensive zone. Petry can also carry the puck well, and has a nice burst that gets him into offensive situations under control often. I think he’s not close to peaking as an offensive player.
  12. What’s the best thing about him off the ice? He beat the “coaching by contract” system the Oilers often use to make their roster decisions. He forced them to risk waivers on a player because he won the day, something Edmonton has been hesitant to do forever.
  13. How many did he pass? It was a lot, he was Secretariat this season. Last August, I estimated the top 5 to be Whitney, Gilbert, Smid, Barker and Peckham. Sutton would have been ahead of him too, and Petry would have been equal to Corey Potter but they couldn’t risk waivers on Potter either.
  14. What is Petry’s outer marker for points? I’ll say 40. He scored 19 points at evens and 6 in limited time on the PP. His EV total ranked among the NHL’s top 50 this past season and he should be able to increase his 5×4 time as things roll along. Now, that’s his outer marker, it doesn’t mean I expect him to deliver that next season.
  15. Can the Edmonton Oilers win a Stanley Cup with Jeff Petry as a prime contributor? Yes. Petry has a nice range of skills and they brought him along slowly, so the lessons learned should be in the vault. We should always remember injury can derail these men–I think Peckham had something go haywire this past season–but based on his first 100 games Jeff Petry has the look of a guy who is going to be in the NHL for a long time.
  16. What’s the biggest surprise about Petry? I’ll say the contract he just signed. Extremely likely to be a value contract and in the extreme. He should fire his agent.
  17. Could he falter? ALL defensemen, ALL of them can take a step back due to injury. I don’t think there’s anything else that will impact him, although a new coach always changes things slightly. I don’t think Krueger would denver boot Petry like Pat Quinn did Lubo, however.
  18. Are there any other worries? The Oilers traded Tom Gilbert so you wonder if the team has the value meter tuned to “fair” and that is a concern. A team like Detroit–badly in need of quality blue–might convince the Oilers Jonathan Ericsson is a better man. Long shot for sure, but a trade like the Gilbert deal is a red sky in the morning.
  19. Nick Schultz is a good player. Sure, he’s a quality NHL defensive defenseman. However, as Awad says in the article linked to above, it’s impossible for a DD to overcome the value of a more complete defender who can perform well in all areas. Not a putdown of Schultz, love the guy’s playing ability.
  20. Do you really believe they’ll trade Petry? No. No I don’t.

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53 Responses to "RE 12-13: JEFF PETRY"

  1. blackdog says:

    Wow is that ever some awful drafting. Unbelievably bad. But remember the Oilers couldn’t compete because they were small market.

    I like Petry a lot, would like it more if they had him and Gilbert on the right side, but can’t have it all I guess. So my momma used to tell me. Anyhow I’ve liked him for a long time, even when LT didn’t even rank him in his top 20s I was in his corner. Just want to remind everyone of that.

    ;)

  2. leadfarmer says:

    Wonder what the conversations were like between Tambellini and his agent because not to many players are underpayed these days even as rfa. Not that I am complaining.

  3. Woodguy says:

    Yeah, Gilbert, Petry and J. Shultz would be a pretty amazing right side of the Dcorps.

    There is a law in Edmonton about having too many good players though.

    I believe you can’t have more than 6 good forwards and 3 good Dmen.

    They rest of the team needs to have crust, jam, heart, intangibles, big body, grit, etc. Everything but hockey sense and hockey skill.

    As soon as J.Shultz starts looking good, there will be “trade Petry” talk.

    Book it.

  4. BlacqueJacque says:

    Woodguy:
    As soon as J.Shultz starts looking good, there will be “trade Petry” talk.

    Book it.

    For a fanbase that is supposedly intelligent and really has nothing else to do but watch hockey all (our very long) winter, there is a sizable and very vocal segment of idiotic fans out there. These are the guys who want all the forwards to be Ryan Smyth, hate Tom Gilbert, and would trade Gagner for Stoll because Stoll would help us win “now” and is a big centre, and God knows nobody has ever won a Cup without a the middle being stacked with 6’2 centres.

  5. Lowetide says:

    Blacque Jacque: I sometimes have people ask me if I was joking about my Tom Gilbert takes on this blog. Seriously. Now I do from time to time post things for reactions, but honestly cannot understand anyone seeing Oiler games since 2006 and coming away disappointed in Tom Gilbert.

  6. Bushed says:

    Petry’s skating stood out right from the start. I was initially concerned about whether his physical play would be enough, but he looks fine. Not all D have to be punishing hitters, especially when they are bringing lots of other skills to the game.

    LT, Petry is also an excellent Dman in that all-important 4th zone–between the ears!

    It’s going to be a pleasure watching him develop.

    Hope WG is wrong about losing Petry to trade–maybe the “poise” factor will save him from that fate.

  7. blackdog says:

    LT – a few weeks ago someone asked Pronman about some kid for the Wild and whether he could step into their top pair as a RD. Pronman’s response (paraphrasing) – Gilbert is a very good top pairing Dman who can play in any situation, they don’t need to rush this kid.

    Wild beat guy and the coach also love him, can’t say enough good about him.

    Seems those in the know know what we knew, you know?

    I like Schultz a lot too. Just wish they had picked him (or someone like him) up for less than Gilbert.

  8. JohnnyRocket says:

    1) I hope that the contract Petry signed doesn’t sour him on signing a long term one next time.
    2) Why didn’t they give more money to get more term out of him? Now seems like the perfect time to take the gamble. Once his game rounds into shape, say two years from now, having him signed at, say, 3 mill for another 3 years would save some cap room. I suspect Petry will cash in 2 years at something like 4.5 if his development curve continues his way. (I just re-read that, saw the word gamble, and remembered who the GM was. Yes, Tambo, we need a couple of years to evaluate before commiting to the player.)
    3) Tom Gilbert, we all miss you. Have fun looking like a rock star, playing with Suter.
    4) Tambellini seems to be placing all his eggs in one basket, contracts-wise. Gagner, Petry, Smid and the Kids are all due up in the same 2 year window. LT, in your opinion is there any evidence that Tambellini has a hidden contract negotiating strength that we don’t know about? He seems to pinch pennies with some (Petry, Smyth) and spend freely with others (Khabibulin, Eager).
    5) Oilers fans and MSM, please be kinder to Petry than poor Tom Gilbert. I understand that defenseman should go “boom boom” in their own end, but there are some fine defenders (Keith) that don’t do that and still lead their teams to victory. Smooth, powerful strides and big brains are beautiful things.

  9. BlacqueJacque says:

    Lowetide:
    Blacque Jacque: I sometimes have people ask me if I was joking about my Tom Gilbert takes on this blog. Seriously. Now I do from time to time post things for reactions, but honestly cannot understand anyone seeing Oiler games since 2006 and coming away disappointed in Tom Gilbert.

    I sympathize. I used to have similar arguments about Hemsky on a couple of hockey forums. A few years back Hemsky had quite a few turnovers and apparently this made him the WORST PLAYER EVER. No matter how many times I pointed out that Crosby was a/the league leader in turnovers that same year, people would continue to argue that all Hemsky does it take the puck into the zone and turn in circles before losing it. He should just dump it in, chase it, get his head torn off by Regehr and pass it to Smytty because Hair God is right in front and will surely get a goal.

    The older I grow, the more convinced I become that there’s a certain level of intelligence and knowledge one needs before they’re allowed to hold public office, vote, or even post online. By the time I’m 90, I’m pretty sure I’ll be the founding (and sole) member of a party that wants to apply IQ tests before you’re allowed to breathe after the age of 18.

    *grumble grumble*

  10. Lowetide says:

    JohnnyRocket: No. I don’t think there’s a lot of evidence suggesting contract negotiations as a strength. The Oilers–as you suggest–seem to be hard on skill and spend like drunken sailors on third line guys. I do think the shorter contracts of late have shown some intelligence and am encouraged that we didn’t see a 10-year, $100M contract for Jordan Eberle this summer.

  11. JohnnyRocket says:

    Thanks for the link too, LT. Interesting stuff. Could you write an article comparing the value of Gilbert and Schultz. I’d love to see some number-crunchers go at it. Let’s take “poise” out of the equation and see if they have similar value. I’d be very surprised if they did.

  12. JohnnyRocket says:

    LT: I agree the shorter terms are a wise choice. I think Hall and Eberle’s contracts should be sorted before giving term to the supporting cast. I’m just dreading the off season next year. The values and terms if those contracts are going to set the course of this franchise for the forseeable future. It could be a yellow brick road of reasonable cap hits or a long and winding road to cap hell. This team will need some flexablity in order to make their Hossa signing down the road to make a run at the Cup. I’m afraid too many players (Gagner, Smid, Hall) are going to have career years this season. Those short contracts might end up causing management to pay more later.

    Ideally, they should get the big guns (Hall, Eberle) done mid-season and then use those reasonable cap hits to bargain Gagner and Smid down to reasonable, long term deals in the summer. (Dare to dream…)

  13. ashley says:

    But it was just less than 12 months ago we were all clamouring for a true top pairing (and still??) because all the guys we had were #3 or #4 D as their ceiling. We needed two top guys to fill out the D roster, Gilbert and all. Smid was considered a third pairing Dman at best just a year ago. His contract for 2.25 per was mocked.

    Now Gilbert is gone, and it turns out he WAS a top pairing Dman. You don’t know what you got till it’s gone.

    Maybe we’re too hard on our D? Maybe Dman continue to improve? Maybe we have 1D and 2D in our midst? Perhaps we only need to choose patience instead of blockbuster trades or 14 year free agent contracts?

    Just throwing it out there.

  14. gd says:

    LT,

    I love Petry, but something about his contract makes no sense, which makes me worried we are way overrating him. I mean Emelin and Sarich signed for more. My hope is Petry is in at an age that is hard to value for Dmen. The closest comparable I could find is Jamie McBain. It felt like Erik Johnson signed for a low amount as well and I wonder if this is why Subban, Carlson and Del Zotto are having trouble getting signed.

    I am hopeful that Katz is engaged enough to make sure he has a strong management team to make sure they handle the next round of contracts properly, but I have little evidence either way. They seem to have been reasonable in the contracts they have signed in the last two or three years, so that is a sign of hope. I have no clue what other teams do a consistedly good job of negotiating contracts. When in my opinion the best contract signed in the last two years was Tavares by the Islanders, and Detroit gives Samuellsson $3Mill a year, it tells me there is no obvious smartest team out there.

  15. Ducey says:

    Ashley,

    Yeah, I think it points out the problem of using stats as the end all regarding young players. They may improve, often not in a straight line. Stats will just show you the past. I have not seen any hockey ones with predictive value. NHLE is about as close as we seem to have and that just tells you how last year might translate to the NHL.

    It’s why you still have to at “tools” and do scouting. And have patience. Especially with D.

  16. Lowetide says:

    ashley:
    But it was just less than 12 months ago we were all clamouring for a true top pairing (and still??) because all the guys we had were #3 or #4 D as their ceiling.We needed two top guys to fill out the D roster, Gilbert and all.Smid was considered a third pairing Dman at best just a year ago.His contract for 2.25 per was mocked.

    Now Gilbert is gone, and it turns out he WAS a top pairing Dman.You don’t know what you got till it’s gone.

    Maybe we’re too hard on our D? Maybe Dman continue to improve?Maybe we have 1D and 2D in our midst?Perhaps we only need to choose patience instead of blockbuster trades or 14 year free agent contracts?

    Just throwing it out there.

    Agree completely, which is why Petry, Peckham etc should be retained. It isn’t a straight line (development).

  17. ashley says:

    If either of Gagner or Hemsky gets traded in the next while as is often rumoured, I predict that upon transfer of their rights, Gagner will instantly become a bonafide 2C with 1C upside, and Hemsky will instantly become a 1RW and his name will always be mentioned with allstar in the same sentence. Worse, their production in their new silks will live up to their new status. :)

    The Oilers are like the anti-Lake Wobegon on our blogs. Where all the centers are weak and overpaid, all the wingers are bottom sixers, and all the Dmen are below average. Until they move on.

  18. Woodguy says:

    ashley:
    But it was just less than 12 months ago we were all clamouring for a true top pairing (and still??) because all the guys we had were #3 or #4 D as their ceiling.We needed two top guys to fill out the D roster, Gilbert and all.Smid was considered a third pairing Dman at best just a year ago.His contract for 2.25 per was mocked.

    Now Gilbert is gone, and it turns out he WAS a top pairing Dman.You don’t know what you got till it’s gone.

    Maybe we’re too hard on our D? Maybe Dman continue to improve?Maybe we have 1D and 2D in our midst?Perhaps we only need to choose patience instead of blockbuster trades or 14 year free agent contracts?

    Just throwing it out there.

    I’ve been reading blogs of other teams and some general hockey blogs.

    I have been reading some surprise from people who don’t follow the Oilers about how good Smid and Petry’s fancy stats were given they were playing 1st pairing comp.

    It would be nice to have a “Real #1 Dman”, but given that the Smid/Petry duo held their own agains the toughs on a 29th place team, I don’t think the Oilers are in bad shape if they can continue to add “Real NHL Players” and quit signing guys like Petrell.

    I want one more Real NHL Dman to take on at least 2nd toughs with Shultz the elder and let Shultz the Younger get his feet wet with Whitney (if he can turn) and Sutton.

  19. "Steve Smith" says:

    ashley: Now Gilbert is gone, and it turns out he WAS a top pairing Dman.You don’t know what you got till it’s gone.

    I haven’t yet met an Oiler fan whose perception of Gilbert has changed since the trade. Those of us who think he’s a top-pairing guy now thought so when he was on the Oilers, too. Those who thought he was terrible when he was on the Oilers still think he’s terrible.

  20. Lowetide says:

    The two things that impact the fanbase in regard to defensemen are salary paid and how often the defender rips an opponents arm off and begins gnawing on it.

  21. JohnnyRocket says:

    “Steve Smith”: I haven’t yet met an Oiler fan whose perception of Gilbert has changed since the trade.Those of us who think he’s a top-pairing guy now thought so when he was on the Oilers, too.Those who thought he was terrible when he was on the Oilers still think he’s terrible.

    And next year, when Gilbert’s numbers shine playing with Suter, all the Gilbert haters will say how Suter made him look good.

  22. TheOtherJohn says:

    I think Gilbert , like Smid, improved his defensive play last year.. Do not believe either Smid or Gilbert are a true elite top pairing D men. They are however both very very effective defensemen . Hope Petry can over time replace Gilbert’s skill set. He did for 20+ games last year. Do not think Gilbert became a top 2 D man when he got traded. He is, though, a very effective RH all round D. I think Gagner will be a good offensive 2C. His strengths are there as are his weaknesses.

    Have never, not once, read anyone suggesting trading Gagner for Stoll. But if there is a management group that might do it (see Gilbert-N Schultz trade) it would be the Oilers. Thankfully LAK would not make that trade because Gagner could not do what LA needs Stoll to do.

    Agree with LT wholeheartedly that Petry is integral part of this team moving forward. Hope he and Petry become an effective offensive duo on the RH side

  23. jake70 says:

    Really like Petry’s game. I think Gilbert started to model his game after Petry when he decided to be a little more physical midway trhough the 10-11 season :).

  24. vishcosity says:

    Is Petry from Minnesota? I think Gilbert was privvy to some Wild dialogue from the 2010 US Olympic sick of silver locker room. I don’t think that trade was Tambo’s idea, and if I’m right, then good on him for getting anything at all.

    Can we have a thread that allows everyone to predict what they think is reasonable $ for each of the kids moving forward? Something in three years we can go back and reference easily? For all those who think Lowe is underqualified to manage the situation, I would like them all to get a chance to say what they think he should do in advance, and then after he does what he does, we can go look.

    Lake Wobegon in reverse. That is hilarious.

  25. slopitch says:

    The Oilers have a horrible track record drafting dmen but I wonder how much not having a proper development system in place mattered. Good on Tambellini and Katz for improving on this.

    I wonder if the Oilers persued Brodin in the Gilbert trade.

    If the Oilers have one of Klefbomb, Musil, Marincin or Gernat pass 5 d we’re set but that might take 2 years. Maybe J Schultz passes 3 this year? As it stands the Oilers are banking heavily on J Schultz and Whitney’s ankle. I believe in J Schultz, think an offseason of training will help Whitney but like Most here think another insurance vet should be added.

  26. TheOtherJohn says:

    The decision not to have development system in place was a hockey operations decision. That is, it was a decision made by Kevin Lowe. Nashville would have had even less money to spend and they spent a real portion of their revenue on player development. That smart hockey decision paid off for them in spades. So many here attribute the lack of a development system on ownership. I could not imagine ownership telling Lowe how to spend his money. How much money he had to spend, sure, where to spend it: Nope

  27. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy: There is a law in Edmonton about having too many good players though.

    Gilbert with Smid 2.01 GA/60 Even
    Gilbert Without Smid 2.75GA/60
    A .74GA/60 improvement

    Petry wit Smid 2.24GA/60
    Petry without Smid 3.09GA/60
    A .85 improvement

    Smid cannot play 36 minutes a night at even.

    But he 2.75GA/60 gilbert would have been nice to have.

    I mean N. schultz was only
    Whitney 1.62GA/60 -1
    Sutton 1.70GA/60 Even
    Peckahm 2.01GA/60

  28. slopitch says:

    TOJ, I agree if your gonna credit Tambellini you should blame KLo for the system in place.

    I do think the lockout and EIG were a factor in this though too.

  29. Cactus says:

    vishcosity:
    Is Petry from Minnesota?I think Gilbert was privvy to some Wild dialogue from the 2010 US Olympic sick of silver locker room.I don’t think that trade was Tambo’s idea, and if I’m right, then good on him for getting anything at all.

    This is quite possible. I know there are a few of us who think that the Gilbert trade had more to it than simply a hockey deal. It’s just too convenient that Gilbert gets traded out of the blue right back to his home state. Could he have known about the Wild shopping spree? Did he just want to go home? Or, did the OIlers collude with J. Schultz and knew they needed to open up a top four RH defence slot? Could be none of the above of course, but this trade isn’t in keeping with the deals that Tambellini has made in the past.

    Lowetide:
    JohnnyRocket: No. I don’t think there’s a lot of evidence suggesting contract negotiations as a strength. The Oilers–as you suggest–seem to be hard on skill and spend like drunken sailors on third line guys. I do think the shorter contracts of late have shown some intelligence and am encouraged that we didn’t see a 10-year, $100M contract for Jordan Eberle this summer.

    Contact negotiations may not be a clear strenght, but I have yet to see evidence that they’re a weakness. For a team that isn’t in a position of strength (neither in the strongest market nor a yearly contender), they’ve managed to avoid overpays and overly long terms since the Khabby signing.

  30. Lowetide says:

    Belanger and Eager were one year too long (each) but that was no doubt the cost of doing business.

  31. bookje says:

    “Steve Smith”: I haven’t yet met an Oiler fan whose perception of Gilbert has changed since the trade.Those of us who think he’s a top-pairing guy now thought so when he was on the Oilers, too.Those who thought he was terrible when he was on the Oilers still think he’s terrible.

    I liked him a lot before the trade, but I didn’t see him do a damn thing for the Oilers since he was traded.

  32. TheOtherJohn says:

    Vish

    The reason many people think Lowe is under qualified as a manager is no more complicated than he has not had a lot of success. Ever. Granted he had a mediocre record pre lockout and only a part of that can be laid at his feet, understandablly he had fewer resources, less than desirable location, etc. But he assembled and repeatedly used a mediocre scouting staff (pre MBS), drafted mediocrely, developed poorly (nonexistently) and balanced his roster on a shoe string budget. Some of that you can lay on EIG but not all. Nashville had similar concerns and developed players

    Post CBA his club has had the worse record under the current CBA just think about that 30th OV for 6 years. And no we were not trying to tank over those 6 years, 2 of those years, that’s a stretch but sure. Worse over a 6 year period.

    He has,however, been given a colossal do over, with lots of high end talent. That do over can still be screwed up defn of “screwed up” not winning a cup. The roster has to be balanced, payrolls have to be managed (horribly to date) prospects have to be measured: promoted , traded or discarded and valuable pieces of the puzzle have to be added to this roster. The big 4′s upcoming salary expectations set a timeline that “dithering” (STambellini patent pending) cannot extend and there’s lots to be proactively done other than to wait for the young stars to mature. Can the current management do it? Of course, not off of what they have shown us so far but they certainly can be successful

    Predictions: predicated on J Schultz and Yak being who we think they are: sign Smid, Petry (JSchultz), Klefbom, Hall, RNH, Yak, Eberle, MPS and personal pick: Hemsky . Get some large bodies that can play top 9 minutes and for gods sake find a goalie that can push (supplant) Dubnyk

    Everybody else on my roster is in play for bigger players who can play, toughness that can play and n/w/s the evidence that FO’s are irrelevant I trade for Boyd Gordon because I like him.

    Vish

    Let me know if you want a hierarchy on salaries for tmy identified core.

  33. Bruce McCurdy says:

    JohnnyRocket: Tambellini seems to be placing all his eggs in one basket, contracts-wise. Gagner, Petry, Smid and the Kids are all due up in the same 2 year window.

    The whole damn team is due in the same 2-year window. Just Horcoff (a K-Lowe signing just before Tambellini came on board) and Yakupov (a brand new ELC for the standard 3 year term) are due in 2015 … the entire rest of the team is due in ’13 or ’14. Only Horcoff has a NMC and only Horcoff has a cap hit north of $5 MM, and did I mention that contract wasn’t signed by Tambellini? Whatever else you might think of Tambellini, he’s got a ton of flexibility right now — tradeable contracts, and cap space to sign the top kids.

  34. TheOtherJohn says:

    Cactus

    Salary mismanagement evidence: look at our payroll and our record over last 3 years. That is NHL worse per win. Oh, you need more evidence. When you go into bank to borrow $$ tell them to ignore what you have done over the last 3-5 years and to only use what you expect to do moving forward.

    Let me know how that works out

  35. Lowetide says:

    The Oilers have been playing a game that doesn’t involve wins per dollars since maybe Feb of 2010, so it isn’t a stat that has much use in the rebuild. I do agree that the farm system has been a positive under Tambellini, but I’m not sure that having SO many contracts up in two summers is wise. Oilers could get put upon with an offer sheet or two.

  36. TheOtherJohn says:

    Last time two team that I recall had lots of player contracts coming due were Montreal Canadiens 2-3-4 years ago. Not one of Bob Gainey’s shining moment s. and, of course, when 06 Oilers had numerous contracts up and a ton of pieces walked.

    No question that Oilers have ton of flexibility.expect Bruce looks on that as a positive. I would be less so inclined but It may be deliberate due to the end of the CBA. I would sign Smid, Hall, RNH , Eberle in that order as soon as I could, and Petry, Schultz and Yak if they pan out . If Gagner has a real solid year, I move him right behind the Eberle signing

    I like certainty, not the best possible deal

  37. Lowetide says:

    Remember when the Bruins had all that flex room coming out of the lockout? they had a helluva time finding a team to ice iirc.

  38. Bruce McCurdy says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    Well, yes, I look at the flexibility aspect as being a positive in its own right, although it comes with its own degree of uncertainty. I do think there will be a time to lock down some of these dudes for longer term, and maybe Jeff Petry should have been one of them already, but at least there’s not a bunch of secondary players locked up for too many $$$ and term.

  39. DSF says:

    Bruce McCurdy: The whole damn team is due in the same 2-year window. Just Horcoff (a K-Lowe signing just before Tambellini came on board) and Yakupov (a brand new ELC for the standard 3 year term) are due in 2015 … the entire rest of the team is due in ’13 or ’14. Only Horcoff has a NMC and only Horcoff has a cap hit north of $5 MM, and did I mention that contract wasn’t signed by Tambellini? Whatever else you might think of Tambellini, he’s got a ton of flexibility right now — tradeable contracts, and cap space to sign the top kids.

    Here’s a fun fact.

    The Stanley Cup champion LA Kings have more cap space than the 29th place Edmonton Oilers.

    And that includes a $3.5M cap hit for Simon Gagne who may or may not play for them again.

    Now THAT is good management.

  40. TheOtherJohn says:

    Bruce

    You are absolutely right we have no bit players signed to 4-5 year contracts moving forward which is very much a positive but Smid has to be resigned because he would be very hard to replace and only thing that could slow down Hall is injuries. Sign them. Really like Ebs but RNH is bigger priority for me.

    Mantra: Sign your core guys!!

  41. Cactus says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    I know that you’d like to see some of the core locked up now, but given the CBA proposals on the table, there’s really no point doing that until we have a new labour deal.

    Players’ Associations have a venerable history of screwing their younger players for other concessions in negotiations. I think it’s quite possible that we come out of this CBA with a hard cap for UFA status at 27 years old. That is, players don’t become UFAs until 27, regardless of when they start in the league. If such a change would come to pass, it would remarkably alter the negotiations between the OIlers and their young core.

  42. rickithebear says:

    Bitching about Trading a historic 3.00Ga d man who did not show any abilty to face tough Comp. until this year with Smid and were even for a pair. who then got injured and was replaced by a player without one year of Nhl experience and were better as a first comp pair says all you need to know about the Dman.

    So the team trades for 2 years of great GA dman. Over a career 32p Dman with no defensive ability.

    Get rid of the loser perspective. We bring in a raw offensive rookie to face 2nd and thirds. they do no worse than gilbert for GA.

  43. Lowetide says:

    ricki: Love you like a brother but you’re smoking the drapes on this one. The Oilers appear to have noticed Petry’s step forward–and hell man that’s a good deal, no one should downplay it–and then advanced straight to “well now we have too many of these RH puck movers with a nice range of skills.”

    Which is, of course, crazy. The RH side would never have been Gilbert, Petry and Justin Schultz, but hell man solve that problem as it presents itself.

    The Oilers management group’s model of the blue clearly required a veteran stay-at-home type. Fine. But get more for Gilbert, maybe a LH puck mover in case Whitney can’t play the toughs anymore.

  44. jfry says:

    OT:

    a nice article on some teams in the NHL that might be using advanced stats. Some really good links within the article as well.

    http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/blog/eye-on-hockey/19719482/trying-to-figure-out-which-nhl-teams-are-using-statistical-analysis-in-their-front-office

  45. Lowetide says:

    good find, Jfry. Interesting. We know the Oilers dabble (our own—well, not our own but you know what I mean–Bruce McCurdy is involved) but can’t really say what impact it has had on the roster.

  46. jfry says:

    ANOTHER OT LT,

    Seeing how you’re looking to monetize a little, you might want to consider what this guy is doing over at Cryptogon; basically, if someone starts their amazon purchase stream from your site, you get a piece of the pie by being an affiliate. It’s been making this guy about $750 a month and all it requires is that your regular readers start their amazon session from your site.

    http://cryptogon.com/?p=30486

  47. delooper says:

    Two threads back there was some discussion of chaos theory and such. I just wanted to emphasise the point that i think as topological statistics evolves and matures it will be able to quantify in physical systems the kinds of troubling phenomena things like chaos theory predicts. The subject is very raw and young right now but i imagine a massive landscape change.in the way people pursue modelling in the near future, even things like advances sports stats. One of the nice features of top stats is for manymodelling scenerios you need to know very little about the laws you system satisfies — provided you have enough data. IMO things like climate modelling will be completely turned on its head.

  48. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide,

    You can claim me if you like, LT, I’ll take it as a compliment. I consider myself a card-carrying member of the Oilogosphere, let’s put it that way. My credentials (such as they are) are “fan” and “blogger”.

    It’s off limits to talk specifics about what the analytics group is doing but I think it’s fair ball to say “positive steps” when it comes to using advanced stats.

    Thanks for the link, Jfry.

  49. loosemoose says:

    Jeff Petry will be a better two way dman than Tom Gilbert.

    I think that and, apparently, so do the Oilers…..

    In conclusion…..I am an idiot;)

  50. JohnnyRocket says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Last timetwo team that I recall had lots of player contracts coming due were Montreal Canadiens 2-3-4 years ago. Not one of Bob Gainey’s shining moment s. and, of course, when 06 Oilers had numerous contracts up and a ton of pieces walked.

    No question that Oilers have ton of flexibility.expect Bruce looks on that as a positive. I would be less so inclined butIt may be deliberate due to the end of the CBA.I would sign Smid, Hall, RNH , Eberlein that order as soon as I could, and Petry, Schultz and Yak if they pan out . If Gagner has a real solid year, I move him right behind the Eberle signing

    I like certainty, not the bestpossible deal

    I know the situation is different, but the Hawks had a bunch of contracts to re-up right after their Cup win. Look how that turned out.

  51. rickithebear says:

    Lowetide: but you’re smoking the drapes on this one.

    LTL I do not get it,

    As a dman gilbert historically gave up 3.00 GA/60.
    There are 50 Fwd that were on for 3.00 GF or better,
    These forwards needed to be better than even

    From the wowy I could get N. schultz was 1.65 GA/60 for the oilers
    There were 311 fwd that were 1.65 GF/60 or better.

    Explain to me how needing a line of D.Sedin-RNH-Vaneck to break even is better
    than needing a line of Tanner glass- tom pyatt – J, Mayers to break even.

    Gilbert presented us allmost zero chance of out scoring while he was on.

    N. schultz gives us alot more cheap choices to break even.

  52. Lowetide says:

    Ricki: You are missing entire segments of the equation. Seriously. Qual comp, zone starts, SP and of course in Schultz’ case sample size.

    Edmonton traded a guy they could use in all scenario’s–who is RH, the king of the beasts in the NHL–for a LH stay-at-home defender who is fairly long in the tooth.

  53. rickithebear says:

    Lowetide:
    Ricki: You are missing entire segments of the equation. Seriously. Qual comp, zone starts, SP and of course in Schultz’ case sample size.

    Edmonton traded a guy they could use in all scenario’s–who is RH, the king of the beasts in the NHL–for a LH stay-at-home defender whois fairly long in the tooth.

    Gilbert might be getting it to the point were he goes from zero chance of outscoring to maybe?
    Gilbert 29
    Schultz 29

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