RE 12-13: JUSTIN SCHULTZ

The signing of Justin Schultz–combined with the trio of número uno’s–represents a cumbre in Oilers history. Schultz begins his NHL career in Edmonton this fall. How will he fare?

RE 12-13: 75, 7-19-26

  1. NHLE says 15-45-60. What the hell is this crap? NHLE is actually 15-25-40, but I get your point. If we can agree that a period of adjustment might be required, and that luck is a tough thing to measure, then I believe this is a reasonable estimate for Schultz.
  2. REASONABLE? Jake Gardiner numbers looked reasonable, and Gardiner’s season was one I looked at; but his EV totals (75, 6-17-23) were so good I didn’t think it would be a fair line in the sand. Jamie McBain had pretty much the same number as Gardiner btw.
  3. So you get my point but still aimed low? Yes, but only a little. Because I don’t know that anyone thought McBain’s or Gardiner’s numbers were reasonable at the time they posted them. I’m sure most felt they had exceeded the number expected by some margin.
  4. But we know more about college players because of them. Possible–even likely==but we still have to build in growing pains and possible injury. This isn’t a guarantee you know. Justin Schultz is an outstanding prospect but he still has to go out and do the job.
  5. What do you honestly think of Schultz? He is a Godsend, a defenseman whose age and development are a perfect match for the Hall cluster. Music! He was the #1 rated free agent on my list.
  6. Then why isn’t the projected number better? We have a tendency to look (and this is everyone, maybe the math guys are excluded) at the successful transitions from college to NHL and use those as ‘typical’ progressions. In reality, there’s a chance this young man struggles, sees the press box and even spends some time in OKC. If we’re being reasonable, we need to at least allow for the possibility this could happen.
  7. The number seems low. The number seems right.
  8. Will it get him Calder consideration? No. Gardiner had a helluva year but finished with 70 votes.
  9. Why won’t he win? Well, I have Yakupov scoring 44 points as a rookie and that will get him more attention than Schultz will get if he reaches my number.
  10. Will he contribute more as a rookie than Yakupov (if those numbers hold)? Sure, but the Calder voting traditionally rewards the offensive player. Tyler Myers won but that was an unusual vote. I don’t think Schultz could win the Calder trophy with anything less than an enormous point total.
  11. 45 points? Yeah, that might do it.
  12. Who was the last rookie defenseman to score 45 points? Myers and Phaneuf are the only two defensemen to do it since the lockout.
  13. Who will they pair Schultz with? Various veterans. I’d say Nick Schultz is probably a very fine match for him, the veteran can save the day and allow Schultz to roam a little.
  14. What about Whitney? I’d prefer to discuss him during his RE, but there are reasons I think we should take a cautionary route when dealing with Whitney.
  15. Who was the last Oiler rookie D to score 30 or more points? Tom Gilbert in 07-08 went 82, 13-20-33. MA Bergeron went 54, 9-17-26 in 2003-04.
  16. What made Gilbert a better rookie? Not better per se, but he did have a full pro season before he was an NHL rookie. 48 games in the AHL and 12 more in the NHL. We had a better idea about him.
  17. What if Schultz can’t play at the NHL level this season? They’d have to send him down.
  18. What kind of season do you think he’ll have? I believe he’ll have a very good rookie season. Based on all of the scouting reports Schultz is as close to NHL ready as you can hope for and he appears to have some maturity.
  19. What’s the best case scenario for his early career progression? Jeff Petry played 51 AHL games and 108 NHL games in his first two pro seasons. For anyone to expect a more aggressive development timeline for Schultz is unreasonable. Seriously.
  20. But you expect more offense? Sure. He has some unique talents and a tremendous opportunity.

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49 Responses to "RE 12-13: JUSTIN SCHULTZ"

  1. Cactus says:

    Not 22G, 50A, 72P, LT??? Why do you hate Justin Schultz so much?

  2. jonrmcleod says:

    Is it unreasonable to think the Oilers could have a forward and defenceman on the NHL all-rookie team this year?

  3. jonrmcleod says:

    I doubt, though, that most guys making the transition from college to the NHL have as much poise as Justin Schultz.

  4. ItsTheBGB says:

    3rd in the RE batting order? Does that mean you think he will have the third most ice time of all defenseman?

  5. Lowetide says:

    JRM: I think they could have both on the all-rookie team this year.

    BGB: I’m doing them by pairings this year. So Petry-Smid to start and now Schultz-? For the record, I have Schultz 4th in TOI behind Petry-Smid and Schultz’s partner.

  6. jp says:

    If he can hold his own defensively and post those numbers, we should be very happy. A big PP push and more points is a possibility, but some struggles are equally, if not more likely.

    jonrmcleod:
    Is it unreasonable to think the Oilers could have a forward and defenceman on the NHL all-rookie team this year?

    I think that’s a definite possibility. Those numbers combined with average D-zone play would be a really solid rookie season. Not Calder territory, but for sure all-rookie team territory.

  7. jp says:

    Lowetide:

    BGB: I’m doing them by pairings this year. So Petry-Smid to start and now Schultz-? For the record, I have Schultz 4th in TOI behind Petry-Smid and Schultz’s partner.

    Mmmm. The Schultzes together. We need some decent nicknames fast. Something better than Jr. and Sr….

    Guess it could also be Whitney, but I figure the 2 Schultzes styles mesh better. LT will tell us the answer soon enough.

  8. justDOit says:

    jp: Mmmm. The Schultzes together. We need some decent nicknames fast. Something better than Jr. and Sr….

    Guess it could also be Whitney, but I figure the 2 Schultzes styles mesh better. LT will tell us the answer soon enough.

    Sgt and Private?

  9. mattwatt says:

    LT, is there any concern with JS running in place point-wise over the past season? I know his points total don’t show us anything about his TOI, role on the team, whether he had more defensive responsibilities this year or if his linemates were better last yeaw; the picture his points total provides is somewhat incomplete. That said, he stayed at historical levels for him (little better PPG for him in 11-12 than 10-11). Is this cause for concern or do other factors we know (glowing scouting reports, good NHLE, nice skillset) trump this? Also, outside of him adjusting to the NHL game, how much more do others see him improving?

    Damn excited to see him in the roster on opening night.

    Also, as for the discussion of late about not all shots being equal, some NHL teams do track this from a discussion I had with a scout last year. He stated that they have a computer program for this. As to what value it provided, he did not know. I agree with some on here, this would be good information to have. Provide insight into where one is shooting from and teams could use this to improve a player’s abiliity (ie. player taking too many shots from the outside, a team can work on him shooting from more in close and finding better angles).

    Issue with just tracking shots though is that it provides us an incomplete picture on what happened for the puck to arrive in a shooting position. This is where the other stats are beneficial for; they take several game instances of shots and show if a player/players are contributing to more shots than taking away.

    No stats is perfect, that we can all agree on. One stat alone does not tell us a complete picture of a player. However when all stats are weighed against a player and analyzed to see what he provides, one often arrives at a more complete look of a player than before. Focusing on one stat and saying that it is invalid is looking at the forest and only seeing a tree. We all can agree that one tree does not make a forest.

    Keep up the goodwork LT, liking the RE series. Because of your work, think I will have a beer tonight.

    Then another.

  10. Woodguy says:

    Krueger said he wants to run 4F 1D on the PP.

    I’m assuming Whitney gets PP1 with his LH shot, and Eberle with his RH shot playing the other point.

    J. Shultz would probably get PP2, not sure if they run another D or F as his partner.

    If (when) Whitney goes on IR, they might put J.Shultz on PP1 even though he’s RH. Might hammer the RE if that happens.

    As for 5v5, I’m guessing that J.Shultz and his partner will get the ozone push behind X-93-14 and he’ll given as soft as ice as possible, like Yandle in PHX.

    He may destroy the RE if that happens.

    I agree with the RE and think its reasonable. If things fall right, the result might be quite unreasonable to expect.

  11. VOR says:

    LT,

    I hate seeing all the pressure we are putting on this kid’s back.

    I am sure many of the haters having been waiting to bounce on the fact that we really are relying on an unproven college kid to play fairly major minutes, hold his own on defence, and score at a reasonable clip.

    I spent some time looking for a comparable: some kid who was too small for junior, struggled early in junior B (as Schultz did), got drafted somewhere in the 40s OV on the basis of a great season in Junior B, went to college, tore it up, left early to turn pro while still less than physically mature. Ironically, after looking and looking, I found one on the University of Wisconisn Badgers, the kid whose records Schultz was chasing, a smurf from San Diego named Kostas Tselios. Schultz got the record for goals, but missed the one for points. Kostas Tselios’ first season in the NHL (he did spend most of the year with the Olympic program) was 12 games played, no goals, 2 assists, 12 penalty minutes, -5, incredibly sheltered minutes.

    What if Schultz is Tselios?

    Now I am sure you know I am joking. See my earlier comments about not wanting to pressure the kid. Those are gigantic flipping shoes to be expected to step into. I just thought I’d give DSF and the rest a break and define the problem for them. All you have to do is prove that Schultz won’t turn out (at least offensively) to be remarkably like that other Badger, Chris Chelios. It should be simple.

  12. VOR says:

    Mattwatt,

    This year he was plus 11 on a team that was plus 3 and led his team in goal scoring, the first time a dman has ever done that at Wisconsin in their 50 year history.

  13. TheOtherJohn says:

    Smid, Petry and J Schultz is a very nice cluster of young D men to age with Hall, Eberle, RNH & Yak. Expect J Schultz will get every opportunity to quarterback our PP. If Klefbom develops the way we expect him to,mthat will be a very nice top 4 two to three years from now

  14. gd says:

    From my limited draft research, the three surest things of the last ten years are; OHL F picked in the top 3, Swedish D picked in the top 20 and highly regarded Wisconsin Dmen. I’m not sure I’m confident for this year, but I’m feeling pretty confident about 2013-14.

    Gardiner played top 4 minutes almost all year, and remember Toronto was actually in a playoff spot for the first 60 games. In his Freshman year, JS outscored McDonugh (who I think might be a top 10 in the NHL Dman now) who was in his Junior year. I think it would border on shocking, if JS isn’t a solid top 4 Dman by the 20th game. There are already 13 Dmen from his draft year playing top 4 minutes.

  15. mattwatt says:

    VOR: Mattwatt,This year he was plus 11 on a team that was plus 3 and led his team in goal scoring, the first time a dman has ever done that at Wisconsin in their 50 year history.

    Thanks Vor, this is the reassurance I was looking for.

  16. jp says:

    mattwatt:
    LT, is there any concern with JS running in place point-wise over the past season?

    I don’t think so. He was the leading D scorer in all of the NCAA both seasons, as well a top 25 NCAA scorer overall. WCHA top defensive player, WCHA and NCAA 1st all star both seasons too. There’s not much he could do to improve season over season, but he maintained an elite level both years. Hard to consider this a negative.

  17. Lowetide says:

    Agree with JP. Seems reasonable as an outer marker. I’d have to look and see how many defensemen have scored more in that division in the last several years, but those are quality seasons.

  18. Max Powers says:

    I really think Schultz is gonna pleasantly surprise, in the 30-35 point range.

  19. rickithebear says:

    My expectation is there will be 180 fwds capable of out scoring his goals against.
    On our team the second and 3rd comp units.

    that is one heck of an upgrade in our Offensive dmen.
    he really is replacing the guy who we could not cover for with our best forwards.

  20. Gret99zky says:

    Snoopy and Woodstock.

  21. godot10 says:

    Ryan Whitney is NOT getting PP1.

    Nugent-Hopkins plays the right half wall. They need a RH defenseman on the right point to partner with him. So it will be Petry, JSchutlz, or Potter.

    Eberle plays the left point like last year, where he can sneak down, again like last year. Horcoff or Gagner with the the 4th forward on the powerplay until Nugent-Hopkins (which might be a couple of years still) can win a faceoff.

  22. "Steve Smith" says:

    godot10: Ryan Whitney is NOT getting PP1.

    Seriously, it’s about 60% of your posts – go back and check.

    In other news, I’m a little surprised at the lack of women’s soccer talk here this afternoon. I guess Christine Sinclair is no Curiosity.

  23. Lowetide says:

    SS: I’m thrilled by this soccer team! All heart! I’m beside myself with the bad reffing. But what a player and what a TEAM!

  24. "Steve Smith" says:

    I keep expecting Sinclair to beat Grant Ledyard wide.

  25. "Steve Smith" says:

    CuJo’s doing her part, anyway.

  26. jake70 says:

    Lol, was the ref going to, in the end, allow this to end any other way? Yes I am whining.

  27. prairieschooner says:

    That ref made two back to back atrocious decisions that cost Canada a chance at the gold
    The intent of the 7second rule is stop goalies from intentionally wasting time.
    McLeod does the same thing all the time when she catches.She tries the quick outlet which involves her getting ahead of defenders and forwards.If there is no outlet she has to wait until everybody clears her area or it is safe to play the ball.Her overall movement is intended to play the ball not delay the game
    From the free kick the ball struck two players who both had their arms tight to their body and somehow that was a penalty
    The referee is required to ask this question in those situations
    Was it hand to ball or ball to hand, both times it was the latter
    I like watching this Canadian team more than previous ones.

  28. Dominoiler says:

    Agreed SS, (although most people wouldnt have the time to watch mid day)

    Christine Sinclair had a legendary performance today, only to have a dream match snatched away with a sequence of brutal calls.. Great game from those ladies, best I’ve ever seen of a Canadian soccer team..

  29. "Steve Smith" says:

    Dominoiler:
    Agreed SS, (although most people wouldnt have the time to watch mid day)

    Well, in Alberta it’s a stat holiday – I figured a hefty proportion of the readership resided here, but I guess we’re always hearing about LT’s far-flung following.

  30. Dominoiler says:

    haha.. oh my,.. ouch goes the pride, while showing my own disconnect..

  31. Lowetide says:

    I’m exhausted. I feel terrible for that soccer team. Just awful. Poor fucking kids. There has to be a better way for the USA to get their 80 fucking medals.

  32. TheOtherJohn says:

    Womens team was incredible today! Lowetide’s soon to be daughter in law was particularly amazing. Eagerly await LT breaking joyous news to his son.

    Gotta give Ryan Whitney credit after first chirping Canadian soccer team/fans, he quickly realized it was a no win situation. Discretion better part of valor, etc. Plus he probably did not want to get Tom Poti’d out of town

  33. justDOit says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Womens team was incredible today! Lowetide’s soon to be daughter in law was particularly amazing. Eagerly await LT breaking joyous news to his son.

    Gotta give Ryan Whitney credit after first chirping Canadian soccer team/fans, he quickly realized it was a no win situation. Discretion better part of valor, etc. Plus he probably did not want to get Tom Poti’d out of town

    Well, in order to get ‘run out of town’, Whitney would first have to be able to run…

  34. Lowetide says:

    and turn. Turning is big during an escape.

  35. justDOit says:

    Lowetide:
    and turn. Turning is big during an escape.

    written like someone who has found out the hard way.

    I should say, after trash-talking him, that I think he was looking a little better late last year. Considering that players can’t really work on things during the season, that could be a huge tell. If his summer training goes well, and the foot holds up to real action, Whitney might be back, baby!

  36. jake70 says:

    Lowetide:
    I’m exhausted. I feel terrible for that soccer team. Just awful. Poor fucking kids. There has to be a better way for the USA to get their 80 fucking medals.

    I had to cool down to post (wanted to keep my personal streak at this site going where I haven’t used the F word)….but well said LT (and no disrespect to any of your American readers….the US played great, did what they had to do…Canada was a handfull).

  37. Thinker says:

    Woodguy,

    Interesting quote. Hopefully paajarvi gets a chance at the point. He has looked good in the past making sublime passes. He also has a taste for perimeter shots. I would run a pp like so
    Yakupov nuge ebele paajarvi whitney
    Hall gagner smythe hemsky schultz
    God that is impressive.

  38. leadfarmer says:

    I am impressed by the Canadian team, also by Lithuania keeping close to the U.S in basketball. You know its late in the summer for a nonplayoff club that hcokey fans are talking soccer.

    Any word on the CBA? Cant wait for the hockey season, not that I am complaining about summer but we have had 3x the normal amount of days in the 90s then normal here in Minneapolis. How is the summer in edmonton.

    Hey LT I havent been back in Edmonton for 15years now, has londonderry, my old stomping grounds, cleaned up?

  39. jzed says:

    I’m sorry, I can’t stop myself. Throw the Norwegian ambassador out on his ass and ask for an audit of that ref’s bank account. After seeing World Cup players waste time writhing around after being tripped, then sprinting forward when they’re rewarded with a penalty call, the beautiful game was given a black eye with that unbelievably unfair officiating. Trust me , if the shoe was on the other foot, congressmen would be talking nuke smack.

  40. Lowetide says:

    I’m with you, Jzed. If only we had guns! :-)

  41. PerryK says:

    Thinker:
    Woodguy,

    ……I would run a pp like so
    Yakupov nuge ebele paajarvi whitney
    Hall gagner smythe hemsky schultz
    God that is impressive.

    Thinker,

    Godot is correct. You just need to flip flop the D in your line-up based on the QB at the half wall. RNH on the right wall on PP1 and therefore Schultz (RH shot). Hemsky on the half wall on the left on PP2 so, Whitney (LH shot).

  42. Jordan says:

    This is Canada – home of the petro-loonie.

    We got the Oil. Who needs to threaten them with guns?

    Threaten them with winter without international shipping or central heating.

    Freeze em out.

  43. Woodguy says:

    PerryK: Thinker,

    Godot is correct.You just need to flip flop the D in your line-up based on the QB at the half wall.RNH on the right wall on PP1 and therefore Schultz (RH shot).Hemsky on the half wall on the left on PP2 so, Whitney (LH shot).

    I looked at the game sheets for the last 10 games of the year.

    Whitney, Potter and Petry all lead D in PP time in various games.

    I remember then running a RHS on LD and a LHS on RD, but it doesn’t seem to be the case every time.n

  44. Lowetide says:

    they should put Kurri high left for the one timer, have 99 behind the net and then the other forward in the slot. Coffey can shoot or move the puck and then Huddy’s heavy shot is available from the right side.

    fuck guys, quit making this so difficult.

  45. Thinker says:

    PerryK,

    I’ll explain my thinking. Rnh is our best passer, and works exeptionally with eberle. Yakupov is also a pure sniper, and would also benefit from a omniscient passes. Paajarvi would act as another good passer, who could also take shots from the point. Whitney would also be able to shoot/ playmake. So rnh sets up behind the net, on the halfwall, or wherever he feels like, and looks to find eberle or yak. If nothings available, he moves it to mps and whitney on the point, who look for either a pass or a shot. The three work it around until they score. Petry shouls probably be subbed for mps, i just wanted to find a way to get paajarvi pp time because I’m quite fond of him.

    The second line is a little shakier on my thought process. Schultz has a deceptive shot which finds its way through so you have to pair him with our best screener (ryan smyth). Hall could take the place of yak on the top line, but i wanted to spread the wealth by puting our best player on the second unit. He also plays well with hemsky who is (typically) a pp demon. Gagner is the most offensively gifted forward left in the lineup. So smythe minding the net, schults looking for a shot, hemmer working the point looking to use his cannon or thread a cross seam pass, hall on the sidewall looking for a shot or to drive the net with reckless abandon to collapse the defence, gagner looking around trying to be useful.
    Not the most conventional plan, but its how i would do it.

  46. jp says:

    Lowetide:
    they should put Kurri high left for the one timer, have 99 behind the net and then the other forward in the slot. Coffey can shoot or move the puck and then Huddy’s heavy shot is available from the right side.

    fuck guys, quit making this so difficult.

    Not quite that kind of a lineup, but it looks like this generation of Oilers might do OK too. Not sure if puck luck helped out the NHL’s #3 ranked PP (which just added Yak and J Schultz), but the results were pretty good. I don’t know exactly how they’ll line up next season, but most of the potential combinations look very solid. I’ll be happy to defer to Ralph on that, he deserves a good chunk of the credit for last years success (the rest goes to the kids presumably).

    In terms of speculating though, I have a hard time seeing Paajarvi getting much PP time, and Hall on PP2 just seems wrong.

  47. oilswell says:

    Lowetide,

    Classic, but it makes the relevant point: all of Yakupov, Nugent-Hopkins, and Eberle can (allegedly) pass and shoot. No point in boxing in any of them with “roles” on the PP and thus helping out the PK by structuring it too much. Shots from everyone everywhere!

  48. OilClog says:

    Yakupov on the 2nd unit with hemsky would be my guess. Seems like a pretty good match to me.

  49. worraps says:

    Applying a consistent downward bias to your forecasts is the exact opposite of reasonable.

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